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Important Information For Sellers When They Are Thinking About Their Price

A report from Mansion Global on New York. “Another week of lackluster dealmaking in Manhattan’s luxury market halted what was becoming a stronger October. Charts from UrbanDigs show real estate deals sunk in September to the lowest level in at least seven years. The average luxury home that found a buyer last week was on the market for over 500 days. ‘It also reported that September contracts plummeted 19% from August, an alarming one-month decline,’ wrote Donna Olshan, author of the report.”

From 5280 in Colorado. “Chilly temps, fall leaves, and a new school year typically herald a seasonal slowdown in Denver’s real estate market. But this September, the year-to-year comparisons showed some significant changes. Active residential listings (that’s condos and single-family homes) finished September with 8,807 total units—a 16.1-percent increase over September 2017.”

“Overall sales slowed: This year, 28.9 percent fewer homes sold in September than in August; in 2017, that month-to-month drop was 20.2 percent. The median price for a single-family home sold in September 2018—$428,000—was down 2.7 percent from August 2018.”

“Interesting things are happening within the typically competitive $500,000 to $700,000 price range: Thirty percent of these homes sold after a price reduction averaging $29,000— ‘important information for sellers when they are thinking about their price,’ says Steve Danyliw, chairman of the Denver Metro Association of REALTORS’ Market Trends Committee.”

“What does it all mean for those of us ready to buy or sell? ‘We are experiencing change, but we’re not falling off any cliffs,’ says Danyliw.”

From the Coloradoan. “Fort Collins home sales have slowed but prices continue to march toward $500,000, an unwelcome milestone the city will likely hit within two years, according to the Fort Collins Board of Realtors. While it might seem like new homes are busting out all over the city, supply has not kept up with the city’s population growth, said Will Flowers, president of the Fort Collins Board of Realtors Board of Directors.”

“As prices drive toward $500,000, Flowers said there’s little indication demand for housing will ease. Fifteen large housing projects are in Fort Collins; development pipeline either formally or informally, which could bring nearly 10,000 new homes to Fort Collins, including the large 800-acre Montava near the Budweiser plant, which could bring thousands of new homes to the city.”

“Flowers is unsure if even a 4,000-plus home project like Montava will be able to keep up with demand.”

“An unknown that could help the for-sale housing market, Flowers said, is if some of the new, recently opened apartment complexes convert to condos, selling their units instead of renting. ‘No one has said it will happen, but it could,’ Flowers said.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Last year, almost 100 percent of the apartments built in Dallas-Fort Worth had something in common: They were all high-end rental units. With developers in the biggest apartment-building market in the country aiming for the same slice of the rental pie, North Texas now ranks high among markets with the largest share of pricey, luxury apartment building.”

“D-FW has more high-end apartment buildings than any other metro area in the country, according to a study by Yardi Systems, just as in 2017. Nationwide, 8 out of 10 apartment communities that opened last year targeted high-end renters.”

“‘Encumbered by high construction costs and encouraged by a surge in demand for rentals, developers have bet big on high-end apartments,’ Yardi analysts say. ‘Back in 2012, high-end properties represented about half of all new completed construction, but now these projects occupy the lion’s share of the multifamily industry. Nationally, about 87 percent of all large-scale apartment buildings completed in the first half of 2018 are high-end.'”

“What’s worse, thousands of older B and C apartments around North Texas are being knocked down for pricier rental communities.”

“Developers say rising land, construction and financing costs make it almost impossible to build workforce apartments in many urban areas. ‘We have chosen to play in the upper end,’ said Tom Bakewell, one of the founders of Dallas-based apartment builder StreetLights Residential. ‘We are going to go even higher-end.'”

“StreetLight’s newest Dallas rental high-rise on the edge of Highland Park has average rents of $5,000 — almost five times the D-FW average. Tenants’ average age in the McKenzie building is in the 50s, and they lease units for as long as two years.”

From The Advocate in Louisiana. “New Orleanians will soon have a lot more options for where to store that old dresser and the rest of the stuff in the garage, as several local developers, spurred by the prospect of high profits, are rushing to expand into the self-storage market. At least 16 self-storage projects are in some phase of development in the New Orleans area, according to real estate investors and industry analysts. The boom will add well over 1 million square feet of new storage space.”

“The recent boom in New Orleans is part of a national trend, driven by shifts in the real estate market, low interest rates, and the search by investors for a high-yielding investment that will hold up even in recessions. Real estate consultant Kevin Hilbert said investors have begun waking up to the fact that rents on some local storage units ‘are on a par with’ suburban luxury apartments.”

“‘Some storage companies can get $300 a month for a 10-foot by 10-foot unit,’ he said. ‘You can get a pretty nice apartment for $3 a square foot.'”

“Veteran storage industry executive Jim Ponti said the local activity is nothing short of ‘a growth explosion.’ Ponti wonders if the growth is sustainable. He said most other areas where self-storage is exploding have significant population growth, but New Orleans isn’t growing rapidly. ‘A lot of people feel there’s room for competition in the local market, but I am a little concerned,’ he said.”

“As competition grows, storage operators are also looking for ways to stand out. Elmwood Self Storage and Wine Cellar offers luxury spaces designed to keep fine wines in top form. And if tenants are storing wine for investment, the company will provide a frequently updated report that shows details of their wine’s storage conditions from the time of its arrival at the storage center.”

“Still, specialized areas for wine and other goods remain the exception. ‘A lot of the space is just used for junk,’ Ponti said.”

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This Post Has 25 Comments

  1. ‘It also reported that September contracts plummeted 19% from August, an alarming one-month decline’

    First time this weekly crater report didn’t mention how much slashin’ and a sawin’ these New Yorkers had to do to unload the airboxes.

  2. ‘some local storage units ‘are on a par with’ suburban luxury apartments…‘Some storage companies can get $300 a month for a 10-foot by 10-foot unit,’ he said. ‘You can get a pretty nice apartment for $3 a square foot.’

    If anyone cares to see how business turns into mania, here it is. Complete with “pent up demand” and wine investing.

    1. For some low cost entertainment, go to a storage unit auction.

      (By law, here in Orange County auctions must post day/time in the local paper).

      It is just amazing how much worthless junk folks have stored in these units and are (or were) paying outrageous rents.

      What is even more amazing is how much cash $$ are paid (at auction) for the right to haul away all that worthless junk.

      Despite “Storage Wars” TV show, the hit ratio must be 1:100 to find something valuable.

      1. A friend of a friend did that for awhile (buying storage unit contents at auction). He quit doing it because, indeed, most of the stuff int he units was practically worthless.

      2. Despite “Storage Wars” TV show, the hit ratio must be 1:100 to find something valuable.

        Well…realistically, what are the odds of somebody abandoning a storage unit containing something of real value? It would only be somebody with plenty of money, otherwise they would come get the item and sell it if they were really hurting. And how many people with plenty of money are going to need or use a common storage unit? There will be exceptions, but they will be really rare.

  4. ‘Fort Collins home sales have slowed but prices continue to march toward $500,000, an unwelcome milestone the city will likely hit within two years, according to the Fort Collins Board of Realtors’

    These greedy UHS are rubbing their mitts with glee. But this brings something up: just who is responsible for watching the housing market? $500,000 is a sh#tload of money. Are these people going to pay off these loans? Or are they expecting to sell for way more and never have to pay it off by actually working?

    1. Yeah, well I’ve got good news and bad news for the FCBR. The good news is that they don’t need to worry so much about hitting such an “unwelcome” milestone in the next 2 years.

    1. Azdude used to complain daily about the CAT stock being overpriced. Now it’s way lower and where is he? Buy the dip!

  7. “Overall sales slowed: This year, 28.9 percent fewer homes sold in September than in August; in 2017, that month-to-month drop was 20.2 percent. The median price for a single-family home sold in September 2018—$428,000—was down 2.7 percent from August 2018.”

    Has there ever previously been a simultaneous heart attack across all major urban housing markets in the United States?

    1. What the Fed is currently learning about the asset market:

      1) A gradual approach to winding down stimulus is not likely to set off an avalanche of selling.

      2) Wealth effects due to interest rate suppression are reversible: Higher interest rates and lower stock, bond, and housing prices go hand-in-hand, just as economic theory predicts.

      2. 1) A gradual approach to winding down stimulus is not likely to set off an avalanche of selling.

        Stocks or houses or ??? Seems a little premature to be learning that already.

          1. One of the welcome side effects from all of this will be reduced traffic congestion.

            Here in the OC, we have lots of smug (“I’m rich and your not”) drivers in their leased Mercedes, Range Rovers, what-have-you.

            Soon, were gona’ have a lot of turned in leased vehicles available for the next round of [bubble] suckers.

          2. Bitcoin has effectively gone from a few hundred to 6k in what, a year or two? How is that “done”? My gold miner index lost 90% in the same timeframe. Who is going to bail me out for getting burned investing on principle??? I should have just bought tech stocks like the rest of the sheeple. Being a contrarian is a one-way ticket to the poorhouse as far as I’m concerned.

  8. “…We are experiencing change, but we’re not falling off any cliffs, says Danyliw…”

    “You can jump off an 80-(floor) building and pretend
    you’re flying for the first 79 floors.” – (Author Unknown)

    1. How can a real estate investor know while prices continue falling whether they jumped off a low cliff or a high one? It seems like you wouldn’t know until prices finally hit the ground.

  10. ‘We have chosen to play in the upper end,’ said Tom Bakewell, one of the founders of Dallas-based apartment builder StreetLights Residential. ‘We are going to go even higher-end.’

    ‘StreetLight’s newest Dallas rental high-rise on the edge of Highland Park has average rents of $5,000 — almost five times the D-FW average’

    Click!

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