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There’s A Lot Of Inventory Hitting The Market Right Now

A report from Boston Real Estate Times in Massachusetts. “The 2019 Greater Boston condominium market stabilized from what has been a five-year run of price escalation, absorption and diminished supply, according to a report from the Collaborative Companies. The current oversupply at the high-end of the market has resulted in a change from a seller’s market to one benefiting the consumer. ‘With many more units scheduled to come onto the market with price points in excess of $2 million, competition at the high end will continue to be fierce,’ the report said. ‘The highest successes will be for those developers who are strategic and creative, understand the depth of the consumer capabilities and are aggressive with opportunities. It’s a tale of two markets – highest price versus highest volume, and it’s unlikely both will succeed simultaneously.'”

The Phoenix New Times in Arizona. “The guy I’m there to meet, a writer named Joey Robert Parks, moved in last July, after which he began emailing me a laundry list of tenant troubles: electrical failures in multiple units, dead air conditioners, brown tap water, leaky water lines. Soon, I was hearing from other tenants, all of whom were enraged by the building’s lack of security, which led to squatters in empty apartments, and by the lousy communication from Avenue5 Residential, the Seattle-based property management firm that runs the place. And especially by a recent decision to turn two floors of the building into a rent-by-night Airbnb free of tenant background checks, which has brought a new transient element to the building.”

“The Stewart, which opened last spring, has problems. And while busted AC units and brown tap water from a broken water heater might be expected from a just-built high-rise, there are prevailing conditions that have residents convinced they got rooked, that they’re trapped in what one former Stewart employee likened to ‘one of those 1970s disaster movies, where everyone is pretty and the building is even prettier, but bad things keep happening and no one feels safe.'”

“Angry to find the main entrance U-locked one November morning, a homeless person demolished the glass door by throwing a rock through it. That’s around the time, Parks figures, that things went from bad to worse. Unit rentals have been so abysmal — during a Valley-wide housing shortage, less than half of The Stewart is currently occupied — its management is now renting out the 13th floor and part of the fourth to Sonder.com, a high-end Airbnb-type company. Although residents of The Stewart are not allowed to sublet their apartments, Avenue5 has turned a big chunk of the building into a glamorous hotel.”

“‘And they’re doing this without any background checks,’ says Parks, as we step off the elevator and head toward the rooftop pool. He’s watched a parade of Stewart employees quit these past several weeks. Last month, a stranger on the elevator offered to sell him drugs. He’s been collecting reports from neighbors about their encounters with drunk, belligerent Sonder guests, and found empty pizza boxes and dirty clothing left behind by squatters who ‘borrowed’ empty units on several floors.”

From The Real Deal on New York. “Madison Equities and Gemdale Properties’ supertall condo at 45 Broad Street will be delivered shorter and later than expected, The Real Deal has learned. A spokesperson for the developer confirmed that the condominium project is being put on hold due to ‘market conditions.’ It’s not clear when the development team will revive the project.”

“Sales in FiDi sank almost 45 percent quarter over quarter at the end of 2019, according to a market report from Platinum Properties. There were 26 deals in the final quarter, the report showed, compared to 47 the previous quarter and 32 in the same period one year ago. The wider Manhattan market is also grappling with an oversupply of luxury inventory that could take more than six years to sell.”

“Confirmation of the delay at the 45 Broad Street follows years without a clear timeline for completion. In 2015, Robert Gladststone’s Madison Equities acquired the site for $86 million, securing a $55 million mortgage from Mack Real Estate, according to public records. In 2016, Gemdale — one of China’s largest developers — paid $69.9 million for an 81.3 percent stake.”

From NBC Bay Area in California. “San Jose had the smallest rent increase in the Bay. As new construction went up, so did the number of people who decided things got too expensive and moved out. Prices haven’t gone down, but rental prices are allowing down after years of going up an average of 10% each year. ‘The biggest contributor is that there’s a lot of inventory hitting the market right now,’ said Matt Dinapoli, real estate professor at Santa Clara University.”

“Dinapoli said more housing built means cheaper housing. Another factor is that more people are leaving the Bay Area. ‘You have people leaving San Jose, often going to other areas, trying to find housing that’s more within their affordability,’ said Dinapoli.”

“Though prices are slowing, experts say not to expect big drops any time soon.”

From Globe St. on California. “‘Year-over-year rent growth in L.A. is currently 0.4%, trailing the national average of 1.4% and representing a notable cool down in rent growth compared to recent years,’ Christopher Salviati, housing economist at Apartment List, tells GlobeSt.com. ‘This cool down is likely attributable in large part to new construction. The number of new multi-family housing units permitted in the L.A. metro surpassed its pre-recession peak in 2015, and despite slowing down a bit since then, it has maintained a robust pace. As these units hit the market, the new supply helps to ease constraints on a tight housing market.'”

The Sun Sentinel in Florida. “RentCafe says some areas saw relief: When it took a look at 37 cities across South Florida, 23 of them posted lower prices than the national average of $1,474. The rise of rent prices ‘has been slowing down in South Florida ever since the peak of December 2014,’ says Irina Lupa, an analyst for RentCafe. One reason the rate of South Florida rent increases may have slowed is that nearly 11,000 apartments were built last year, Lupa said.”

“Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at Florida Atlantic University, said it’s possible that more apartments opened for business ‘than perhaps we have been led to believe.’ Another factor, he said, is that potential tenants can only pay so much before the apartment becomes too expensive for them.”

The Wall Street Journal. “New warehouse construction across North America is expected to outstrip demand over this year and next, according to a new report that suggests a yearslong boom in industrial space fed by e-commerce growth may be shifting in favor of tenants. Developers are expected to deliver about 301 million square feet of new warehouse space in the U.S., Canada and Mexico this year, while tenants will lease about 242 million square feet, according to a new report from Cushman & Wakefield PLC.”

“The real-estate firm projects builders will deliver another 272 million square feet in 2021, outpacing projected demand of 218 million square feet. Cushman & Wakefield said in its report that builders added more space in North America in 2019 than tenants could take on, the first time since 2009 that has happened.”

“‘Overbuilding is definitely something we need to keep an eye on,’ said Carolyn Salzer, the head of logistics and industrial research for the Americas at Cushman & Wakefield.”

The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. “Three major Little Rock shopping centers have fallen steeply in value in the past decade. The troubled retail centers range from Park Plaza, a fixture in what now is the midtown section of the state’s largest city and Little Rock’s only enclosed mall, to the newer and more posh Promenade at Chenal, a 340,000-square-foot open-air lifestyle center in west Little Rock.”

“Both have plans to reverse their fortunes, which include increasing the mix of restaurants and other entertainment options to reflect a shift in consumer preferences and, in the case of the Promenade, at least, an injection of capital. Park Plaza’s difficulties stem from declining sales and rents, according to a recent Morningstar report. As a result, its owner may have trouble making payments on a $78.6 million commercial mortgage-backed security loan, the report said.”

“‘Sales in 2018 were $319 per square foot, down sharply from $419 per square foot in 2011, which could hamper the borrower’s efforts to pay off the loan before it matures in April 2021,’ the report said. Meanwhile, the high-end Promenade at Chenal recently changed hands for $10 in cash and other unspecified considerations ‘in lieu of foreclosure,’ according to real estate documents maintained online by the Pulaski County clerk’s office. The Promenade opened in 2008 with a $79 million price tag.”

“A third shopping center, Shackleford Crossings, also in west Little Rock, sold last month for $10.5 million, a quarter of the $42 million price tag when it last sold in 2011. The development at Interstate 430 and South Shackleford Road is anchored by two prominent retailers — a Walmart Supercenter and a JCPenney — but 40% of the remaining 288,745 available square feet for lease is empty, according to Loopnet.com.”

“Retail shopping centers and malls nationwide are facing strengthening headwinds. Last year, U.S. retailers announced plans to shut more than 9,300 locations, according to Coresight Research, a global research firm focusing on retail. The 2019 total is up more than 50% from the 5,844 announced closures in 2018, Coresight said. The previous high was 8,069 announced store closings in 2017. Bankruptcies continued to be a driving force, according to Coresight.”

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  1. ‘it’s possible that more apartments opened for business ‘than perhaps we have been led to believe’

    You don’t say.

    ‘Though prices are slowing, experts say not to expect big drops any time soon’

    The never ending media lies. You are sinking like a turd in a well, just keep telling yourself otherwise. Makes no difference.

    One thing I was thinking this morning, and I’ve mentioned it many times. People didn’t used to talk about shack prices. Maybe once a year or so. But not this daily drum-beat of “how rich is my shack loan making me today?”

    1. ‘Though prices are slowing, experts say not to expect big drops any time soon’

      Who deemed them experts, and by what criteria?

    2. Maybe it’s the circle I run with, but I never hear people I socialize with talk about their house’s appreciation, or the mega truck they’re gonna buy with a HELOC. What I do hear occasionally is someone say that they paid off the house.

      1. “What I do hear occasionally is someone say that they paid off the house.”

        Are they still invited to the debtor’s parties?

  2. ‘The highest successes will be for those developers who are strategic and creative, understand the depth of the consumer capabilities and are aggressive with opportunities.

    This sounds like a Chinese fortune cookie.

        1. Foolish me, when the waitress asked my at the Chinese restaurant would you like a Corona I thought she was talking about a beer. Should have known that she wasn’t serving Mexican beer. Glad I passed and went with the green tea.

  3. ‘during a Valley-wide housing shortage, less than half of The Stewart is currently occupied’

    There’s some people who think they are going to retire who will be pushing shopping carts instead.

    ‘And they’re doing this without any background checks,’ says Parks, as we step off the elevator and head toward the rooftop pool. He’s watched a parade of Stewart employees quit these past several weeks. Last month, a stranger on the elevator offered to sell him drugs. He’s been collecting reports from neighbors about their encounters with drunk, belligerent Sonder guests, and found empty pizza boxes and dirty clothing left behind by squatters who ‘borrowed’ empty units on several floors’

    See, a business needs to make money. When all these new paradigm arrangements pop up to chase yield, that gets thrown out the window. Downtown Phoenix is a sh$t-hole, always has been. And in the summer the heat-sink makes it kinda unlivable. Oh sure, urban living! Just step over the puke and such.

  4. ‘its owner may have trouble making payments on a $78.6 million commercial mortgage-backed security loan…the high-end Promenade at Chenal recently changed hands for $10 in cash and other unspecified considerations ‘in lieu of foreclosure’ …The Promenade opened in 2008 with a $79 million price tag’

    ‘A third shopping center, Shackleford Crossings, also in west Little Rock, sold last month for $10.5 million, a quarter of the $42 million price tag when it last sold in 2011’

    A lot of Yellen bucks going to money heaven.

    ‘It’s a tale of two markets – highest price versus highest volume, and it’s unlikely both will succeed simultaneously’

  5. ‘condominium market stabilized from what has been a five-year run of price escalation, absorption and diminished supply, according to a report from the Collaborative Companies. The current oversupply at the high-end of the market has resulted in a change from a seller’s market to one benefiting the consumer. ‘With many more units scheduled to come onto the market with price points in excess of $2 million, competition at the high end will continue to be fierce’

    I’d like to make a point about the Boston media/REIC coverage. Even though they have pulled out some statistics showing higher prices (the new condos being delivered were sold years ago), the UHS and others have gone full “buyers market” day after day. This over a year after prices fell double digits downtown.

    So their data is and always was contrived gibberish. Prices up – stop being greedy sellers!

    These guys would sell you and their grandmothers down the river for one more months commission. It’s something the media doesn’t like to say, but the timing of their reckless boosterism has cost people billions in a$$-poundings.

    1. “These guys would sell you and their grandmothers down the river for one more months commission.”

      +1 The coffee is for closers.

  6. Coach suddenly folds up ginormous Manhattan store

    ‘In a new report this week, commercial brokerage CBRE said the Manhattan “market continues to make the difficult adjustment to the new realities of the retail business.” The data found that retail leasing “decelerated modestly in the latter half of 2019.” Lack of demand caused a drop in asking rents of 8.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 in Manhattan’s 16 most important retail corridors.’

    “This decline was more substantial than the prior quarter and marked the ninth consecutive quarter” that retail rents fell in the city, said CBRE research director Nicole LaRusso.’

    ‘But the damage is most severe in Manhattan’s most celebrated, central shopping district, despite a few bright spots such as the arrival of luxury perfume shop Amaffi at 40 E. 57th St. and David Yurman’s move to 5 E. 57th.’

    ‘Demolition and construction make things look worse. Tiffany recently moved into the former Niketown store at the Trump Organization’s 6 E. 57th St. for a three-year renovation — a solution only made possible because Nike no longer had any use for the 65,000 square-foot space.’

    https://nypost.com/2020/01/23/retailer-coach-to-fold-up-new-york-city-flagship/

    1. Wait, I thought rents were INcreasing in downtown Manhattan, causing empty storefronts. If rents are going down, then perhaps the owners actually need cash now… only to find that stores are closing anyway.

      btw Coach was never a high-ed brand. It’s a brand for the pretend rich.

      2. I don’t carry a wallet anymore, and neither do my kids. I took photos of all my ID cards with my phone, and I have my driver’s license and one credit card in a stick-on phone sleeve.

    2. higher minimum wage, higher rents and more cyber competition who could see more retail store closures?

      1. Our state wide minimum just went up to $12/hr, from $11. Things seem OK for now, in fact some fast food places have signs stating that they start at $13. We’ll see how that goes in the next recession.

        1. It’s actually good for business. All the hand-wringing originates from globalists and those who benefit from impoverishing the masses. Imagine trying to live on even $13 per hour. You won’t be renting anything, that’s for sure, except maybe a room in a crack house.

          1. I agree that higher wages for low income workers is better. However, I think it should be driven by supply and demand and not government fiat. This requires limiting immigration. Also, I think that we have to be honest, a lot of retail will shutdown when the market requires a living wage. Cheap labor has created a lot more demand for labor. Unfortunately, such labor requires that the government pay for health care, housing and even food and things like EITC. The .1 percent makes higher profits and the middle class pays for the government benefits they need.

    1. Wang, meet schlong.

      Wang plans to sell one of the three flats he owns in Shanghai to pay for his son’s education abroad. “Frankly, it is disappointing to me that austerity measures [introduced] to rein in home prices will be unchanged this year,” he says. “I cannot afford to wait for a rebound since my son needs the money for his education urgently.”

      A quiet market has already reduced his personal wealth by about 500,000 yuan (US$72,000) over the past two years, with the municipality maintaining a tight grip on the real estate sector.

      “I could have sold the property at a higher price two years ago … It is a hard lesson for me that home prices could also turn out to be volatile, like the stock market,” Wang says.

      Who knew, Wang. Who knew…no one could’ve seen this coming.

      1. Wang you moron! RE only goes to the moon, you encountered a blip in the market likely because of the trade war and now deadly virus. Money is free right now so go get on that loan bandwagon and HODL your golden RE airbox. Have to keep up with that FOMO / HODL mentality if you want to succeed in the riches that only RE And ponzi crypto can provide. Listen i bought a buttcoin for 2x its currently worth and if i sell now to feed my family (they can lose some weight) i would be in the red, instead i HODL this great investment because McaFee told me it would be worth $1 MILLIONS by end of this year or he will eat his own wang (no pun intended) The lesson is, you pay to play but no matter what, investments always go up over time and mabye you die before you see that happen but at least you are the winner in the long run and your legacy will be remembered as mr wise investor! WINNING / FREE!!!

      2. “I cannot afford to wait for a rebound since my son needs the money for his education urgently.”

        Hehe, welcome to the “tight squeeze.”

      3. Why do Chinese students need to get educated abroad? With all their power and money, can’t they build their own world-class institutions?

        1. Sounds like a rayciss accusation. They are more than capable…but why educate at home, when they can send spies to the US, and steal technology….including possibly warfare viruses in Winnipeg, Canada?

        2. Why do Chinese students need to get educated abroad? With all their power and money, can’t they build their own world-class institutions?

          Takes time…much longer than just building buildings. In the meantime you have to be a top student in a population of super motivated top students to get a slot at a Chinese college. So of course people with money look elsewhere if their kid isn’t the top of the top.

      2. The picture is ugly, and is rapidly deteriorating.

        China / Society
        5 million residents left Wuhan before lockdown, mayor reveals, as 1,000 new confirmed cases expected in city
        – Health commission says battling the epidemic is becoming more complicated as the Chinese State Council extends the Lunar New Year holiday to February
        – Chinese premier to head coronavirus crisis team as outbreak worsens
        Topic | China coronavirus outbreak
        SCMP
        Josephine Ma and Zhuang Pinghui in Beijing
        Published: 10:23pm, 26 Jan, 2020
        …

        2. The Financial Times
          Coronavirus
          China warns that spread of deadly virus will accelerate
          More Chinese cities restrict movements as scientists point to difficulty of containing infection
          Worshippers wear masks to prevent an outbreak of a new coronavirus as they make offerings of incense sticks during a Lunar New Year celebration at Che Kung Temple, in Hong Kong, China January 26, 2020. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu
          A woman makes an offering at Che Kung Temple in Hong Kong to mark the lunar new year. Hong Kong has declared the highest state of emergency to fight the spread of the coronavirus © Reuters
          Sue-Lin Wong in Shenzhen, Tom Hancock in Wuhan and Clive Cookson in London 2 hours ago

          Beijing has warned that the spread of the deadly coronavirus is expected to accelerate, heightening concerns about an outbreak that has killed more than 50 people in China and reached a dozen other countries.

          Ma Xiaowei, China’s health commission minister, revealed on Sunday that the virus was infectious during its incubation period of between one and 14 days even though people may show no symptoms.

          This makes the latest outbreak different from Sars, another strain of the coronavirus which originated in China and killed almost 800 people in 2002-03, which was not contagious in its incubation period.
          …

      1. California
        California’s first two cases of coronavirus are confirmed in L.A. and Orange counties
        Coronavirus
        A worker wearing protective gears sprays antiseptic inside a train in Seoul amid rising concerns about the coronavirus spread.
        (Chung Sung-Jun / Getty Images)
        By Alex Wigglesworth, Rong-Gong Lin II, Sonali Kohli
        Jan. 26, 2020
        11:02 AM
        Health officials have confirmed the first cases of the new strain of coronavirus in Los Angeles and Orange counties, brought by travelers who came from the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China.
        …

        1. There’s been some Spanish language reporting in Mexico (a Tijuana news agency, specifically) about Chinese coming in on international flights and not being held for checks over the past week. Interestingly, I was looking for the YouTube link I watched last night and it’s now gone…

          This is going to get veeery interesting.

      3. If it’s indeed true that it is contagious even before symptoms develop, there is no way to stop it from spreading. By the time they diagnose somebody, that person has already spread the disease to countless others. The numbers of infected people are a lagging indicator.

        1. Yep. This one could prove harder to contain than SARS, where IIRC the symptoms generally presented at the point when victims were contagious, making it easy to isolate the cases through quarantine.

          This is a good time to hope your immune system is able to withstand the challenge of fending off the Wuhan flu.

          1. Correct, SARS was not transmittable during incubation. CV is transmittable 14 days before the host even shows signs of sickness.

        2. This may not be as off-topic as it seems, a quote from the previously cited WSJ article that starts with “So Long, California”

          “I just hope all the Californians going to Nevada don’t turn Nevada into a California,” Mr. Belardi said.

  8. My job takes me to a lot of different office buildings around town. It’s amazing to me how many buildings are 1/3-1/2 empty, and have been for the last 2-3 years. Seems worse outside the urban core. I don’t understand how an empty building is more profitable than lowering rents and filling units.

    1. “I don’t understand how an empty building is more profitable than lowering rents and filling units.”

      Its not if they are looking at maximum monthly returns but perhaps the end goal is to offload their investment to the next bag holder by showing the current rental income they are receiving on the occupied units and hide the fact that they have ran out of demand at that rate. Its sales 101; show your potential client the profits they “could” make if all the units rented out. Keep an eye on these as they will likely change hands soon. Just prime examples of this Ponzi RE market, musical chair game.

      1. The crazy thing to me is my clients in these buildings signed 5 or 10 year leases before the bubble and are not planning on renewing them when they expire in a few years. It’s not really clear to me that anyone is paying “market rate” for commercial RE at this point.

          1. Commercial RE is in full CR8R mode ??

            There are many ways to define “commercial” in a real estate analysis…In a broad stroke, commercial suggests a income producing property…So, it could be industrial, office, multi-family, retail, even Ag…So, regarding your “CR8R” comment I would offer that retail commercial and class B & C office has been struggling for some time and does seem to continue on a downward slide…All the other sectors have been doing pretty darn well although over the past year or so there appears to be some weakness…

          2. I’m not sure which is cratering faster… Commercial or residential.

            Fort Myers, FL Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Gulf Coast Florida Floods With New, Empty And Defaulted Houses

            https://www.zillow.com/fort-myers-fl-33905/home-values/

            *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

            As a noted economist stated, “You’d have to have rocks in your head to buy a house in the last 15 years.”

    2. I assume that it is easier to cash in on stellar real estate price appreciation if you don’t have to first kick out pesky tenants?

    3. “I don’t understand how an empty building is more profitable than lowering rents and filling units.”

      Oligarchs just collect them. They don’t even care if they are not performing. When you have that much wealth, you just go around buying every building available, because there’s not much else to do when you have more money than you could possibly spend.

  10. The bond market used to be a reliable indicator of what was going on under the hood of these rigged, broken, manipulated “markets,” until the Fed started massively intervening in both the long and short end of the yield curve to suppress any mechanisms for true price discovery. Now it’s anyone’s guess what signals the bond markets might be flashing, since without the central bankers and their massive, open-ended intervention, global “markets” would’ve cratered a long time ago.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/bonds-look-like-they-are-flashing-a-warning-for-global-markets.html

    1. ‘Europe’s main banking regulator is trying to clear the path for mergers between the continent’s lenders as the belief grows that scale is the key to reviving the struggling sector, people familiar with the matter said. The loosening comes as the eurozone’s fragmented banking sector struggles to make money. Low interest rates—which are set up by the ECB’s own monetary-policy arm—continue to eat up banks’ margins on loans, hurting their profitability and making them largely unattractive for investors.’

      “Somewhere in the back of their minds, the ECB realizes that the negative rates environment is weighting on profitability of the banks, and they need to do something about it,” said Jérôme Legras, head of research at Axiom Alternative Investments.’

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-banking-regulator-paves-the-way-for-bank-mergers-11580037924

      1. “Somewhere in the back of their minds, the ECB realizes that the negative rates environment is weighting on profitability of the banks…

        Somewhere in the back of their minds, the Keynesian fraudsters at the ECB should probably be realizing that lampposts can be repurposed.

    2. The wild cards now concern:

      1) whether there are any organic limits on the extent and duration of central bank intervention in the bond market, and if so, when these limits will be reached and what will transpire when they are breached.
      2) Whether the central banking establishment will step away from the abyss, or wait until market forces push them over the edge.

  11. Wall Street Journal — So Long, California? Goodbye, Texas? Taxpayers Decide Some States Aren’t Worth It:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/so-long-california-goodbye-texas-taxpayers-decide-some-states-arent-worth-it-11579948200

    WSJ is a subscriber paywall site, when opening the link from Drudge it opens for free. Linking from another site it may or may not open.

    Archive (dot) is does not work on WSJ like it does for bypassing paywalls and adblockers on the New York Times, Washington Post, etc.

    1. I would sure like to read that article…Tried to open it @ Drudge but still hit the paywall…I wish these paywall sites would just offer for you to read the article for like $1….I just don’t want to subscribe longer term…

      3. I put the headline in google, and took the link from there and it let me in – sometimes they specifically allow the referral from there.

        The article didn’t have much that we haven’t discussed multiple times here. I did like that they noted Texas’s high property taxes, which gets overlooked with all the people moving there from Kali, etc.

        Really, it just seems like “I’m surprised that people are being rational actors and going somewhere they are burdened less”.

      5. Try this:
        1) Open a private window in your web browser
        2) Open Google
        3) Search on the article title
        4) Click on the link

        1. I refuse to disable Adblock Plus for any website, on mobile or home PC.

          Why would I generate revenue, any revenue, for an industry that holds its audience in such contempt?

          2. @Apartment 401 and @HeadlessBankers

            Count me in as well – Ublock Origin plus NoScript plus Ghostetry. I’ve switched to Firefox for 99% of my browsing and seeing how Chrome like to scan and report EVERYTHING on your computer – I don’t trust their motivations.

            Anyway – if a site complains about my adblockers, I’m outathere and can do without whatever content they have.

          4. FWIW, you should $upport your favorite bloggers.

            I often do – from giving to the Guardian to Charles H Smith (oftwominds). I may have sent Ben a donation recently.. but not via the donate link as I didn’t want my address automatically included as if I was purchasing something.

    2. A snippet: Many people saw their overall taxes go down after the 2017 law was passed. But the law had two main changes making it tougher to live in high-cost, high-tax states, especially compared with lower-taxed options. It essentially curbed how much homeowners can subtract from their federal taxes for paying local property and income taxes, by capping the state and local tax deduction at $10,000. It also lowered the size of mortgages for which new buyers can deduct the interest, to $750,000 from $1 million.

      These changes have the biggest impact on a sliver of the population who have high incomes and live in expensive areas. They tend to have white-collar jobs and the ability to pick up and move. Many own their own businesses, work remotely or are nearing retirement.

      Critics say the changes have hurt everyone who lives in high-tax states, by taking a bite out of tax revenue. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, for example, panned the state and local tax cap last year. “It has redistributed wealth in this nation from Democratic states—we’re also called blue states—to red states,” he said at the time.

      Like Oxide implied earlier, “A turning point was the federal tax overhaul that Congress passed in late 2017.”

      1. You don’t need the ability to pick up and move. What’s really getting hit are the second homes: summer cottages or weekend getaways on Long Island, or just second homes for speculation. And if your primary residence is in Manhattan, you’ve already blown your SALT deduction there, so you get NO deduction for your weekend getaway.

  12. From NBC Bay Area in California. “San Jose had the smallest rent increase in the Bay. As new construction went up, so did the number of people who decided things got too expensive and moved out. Prices haven’t gone down, but rental prices are allowing down after years of going up an average of 10% each year. ‘The biggest contributor is that there’s a lot of inventory hitting the market right now,’

    Just because you say it doesnt make it true. Nothing but lies here not to mention the data reference to a different geographic area. Rents In San Jose have not had the “smallest increase” they have had a DECREASE.

    As of December 2019, average rent for an apartment in San Jose, CA is $3028 which is a 0.96% decrease from last year when the average rent was $3057 , and a 0.3% decrease from last month when the average rent was $3037.

    One bedroom apartments in San Jose rent for $2667 a month on average (a 0.67% decrease from last year) and two bedroom apartment rents average $3260 (a 1.84% decrease from last year).

    http://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-san-jose-rent-trends/amp

    1. It’s a good thing Tesla is ramping up production of EVs in China, since they’re going to need more mobile crematoriums.

      Too soon?

      1. Trust your Real Journalists. It’s unpossible that they would inaccurately report the coronovirus epidemic.

        1. ‘Trust your Real Journalists. It’s unpossible that they would inaccurately report the coronovirus epidemicA’.

          They are working VERY hard on creating an angle which blames the crisis on Trump. If they cannot come up with something soon, they will try to blame it on Putin and then say Putin is Trump’s friend.

          2. N95 masks

            Filter out 95% of particles at least 0.3 microns in diameter. The SARS virus was 0.1 microns in diameter.

          5. Explanation of ratings and comment regarding N95 masks: https://www.envirosafetyproducts.com/resources/dust-masks-whats-the-difference.html

            Are N95 Masks Really Effective against the flu?
            A little online research will reveal that the flu virus is .17 microns in size. Clearly smaller than even N100 masks can filter out. However, it is critical to understand that the flu virus does not float in the air by itself. The flu virus is transported from patient to patient on droplets of excretions from sneezing and coughing. These particles are typically 5 microns or larger. When a sick patient wears a respirator, the respirator can be very effective at preventing infectious material from leaving the patients body, and when worn by healthy individuals, it prevents inhalation of said material. More importantly, wearing a mask is a excellent way of preventing the user from rubbing or touching their mouth or nose, which is a very high risk factor. At the end of the day will an N95 mask guarantee to protect you from the Flu? No. But it can substantially reduce your risk or receiving or transmitting the disease.

          6. droplets of excretions from sneezing and coughing . . . typically 5 microns or larger

            Now if the virus becomes airborne . . .

          7. My take on it is that the masks can help, but not as much as not being around the infected at all.

            I got a small supply (30) of N95 masks because of the smoke from the forest fires a couple years ago – we had days so thick the sun was blocked out and you could taste it in the air.

      2. Made me laugh.

        I made a helicopter joke in a packed SoCal classroom yesterday. It was friggin’ awesome.

    1. Get Woke, Go Broke? 🙂

      Authorities said the Carpoffs siphoned money to fund a lavish lifestyle including dozens of properties and vacation homes, a Nascar sponsorship, a stake in a private jet service, a holiday party featuring the rapper Pitbull, and at least 150 cars.

      Good job of staying low-profile while looting the company there…

        1. Come to think of it, the many articles that Ben posts here regarding the onset of cratering housing prices against the backdrop of low unemployment and a strong economy suggests that the central bankers’ asset inflation efforts are beginning to seriously backfire.

          When housing eee-bola spreads to stocks, you will know that the gig is up.

    1. 1/25/2020 Listed for sale $1,699,900(-24.9%)
      4/29/2019 Sold $2,262,330(+30.6%)
      4/18/2019 Listing removed $1,732,590
      2/11/2019 Price change $1,732,590(-1%)
      3/28/2017 Listing removed $1,750,000
      2/13/2017 Pending sale $1,750,000
      1/10/2017 Price change $1,750,000(-7.9%)

      That $500k bump stinks to high heaven if there was a loan involved.

      1. “At least it was cheaper than renting!”

        REALTOR, get used to hearing this taunt. You can’t (even with the dutiful support of Real Journalists) hide the lie anymore, and we’re gonna shove your lying faces in it like a puddle of Ebola infected vomit.

      3. I don’t believe that sales price. Because if the person selling actually paid that, they would list it right around what they paid. They wouldn’t initially list the house for a half million less than they paid. People aren’t that willing to take a loss right off the bat, even if they’re able.

    2. “Vineyard, pool, spa, horse stables, all need TLC, amazing potential for someone willing to put in the sweat equity!”

      That’ll require more than just sweat equity. How many people can refinish/remodel a pool on their own? And, is the person who can afford $1.7M typically the same person to put in sweat equity?

    3. “…20400-Kent-Way-Los-Gatos-CA-95033”

      That’s a nice property, but I’d bet that it rains and floods constantly up there in the mountains. Now if it was closer to downtown Los Gatos…much better standard of living.

  17. So DirectTV tried to renege on deal it made to get me back to I canceled again and I am trying out KloudTV. I will be supporting conservative news and not subsiding CNN and MSNBC for about an eighth of the cost. MAGA

      1. WAY too early in his retirement to see him go.

        Reminds me of the sad demise of a former professor. He worked into his seventies, and was still fit and youthful when he retired. Then died in an automobile crash within a month of his retirement date.

        My take home from these sad tales is: Don’t put off the things that you want to do someday until you retire, as the opportunity may never come.

        1. Don’t put off the things that you want to do someday
          For some of us, it’s a matter of scheduling. I can only do so many things in a certain amount of time, and unplanned events continue to get in the way.

      2. In Air Traffic Control (ATC) recordings, from moments before the accident happened (later obtained via LiveATC), a controller can be heard advising the helicopter, which is flying under ‘Visual Flight Rules’ (VFR) conditions, that it is flying too low. The pilot did not respond to the radio call.

    3. Growing up, my neighbor was a pilot for United Airlines. He refused to fly in helicopters. He said there were too many moving parts and they were way too dangerous.

      1. He said there were too many moving parts and they were way too dangerous ??

        Yep…Scheduled maintenance is very expensive but absolutely “critical” to maintain safe operation…I looked it up…Kobe’s helicopter required is estimated @ $470,000. per year and that is obviously depending on operating hours…Article I read said someone heard the engine sputtering…His helicopter is 7,000 LB’s tarmac weight…Add five people…If you lose the motor, it goes in like a pancake…No glide factor here…

        1. “Article I read said someone heard the engine sputtering…”

          FWIW, a turbine engine doesn’t sputter.

        1. “Aren’t most “flying cars” really just helicopters?
          Sounds like a recipe for disaster.”

          For the customers and the investors. However, the promoters will do just fine unless rational investing makes a come back.

        2. Sounds like a recipe for disaster ??

          Yeah..I would not disagree that there will be a lot of fatalities once they scale it…But likely far less than what we see on the road ways today…

      3. He refused to fly in helicopters. He said there were too many moving parts and they were way too dangerous.

        After seeing how often the army helicopters crash I concluded nobody should ride in them for fun at airshows, etc. For me the jury is still out on the civilian ones…but I could easily be convinced that they should be avoided too.

    1. Do all historically prominent bubbles feature twin peaks, or do the present Housing Bubble and the historic South Sea Bubble constitute exceptions?

      “The 20-city composite declined by 35.1% from its July 2006 peak to its March 2012 trough. Since this low, this index rose by 62.9% to a higher high in October 2019. This reading is 5.8% above the prior high.”

      1. The FED has lined up a never ending parade of tanker trucks full of gasoline to a raging inferno. The second top is much larger than the first. Maybe it will be a plateau the size of Everest? That’s what they’re attempting.

        1. Maybe it will be a plateau the size of Everest?

          Hahah…more like the shape of Everest. And we’re on one of those ridges near the top and the sun is sinking and the clouds are coming in.

          1. And despite all recommendations, are still summit-bound instead of turning around base-bound, lickety split. Also, remember base camp 4 is still deadly to the weak.

  21. Seattle, WA Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Amazon And Microsoft Layoffs Clobber Homeowners

    https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98102/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist said, “I can $50k for my run down Chevy truck but where is the buyer at that price? So it is with all depreciating assets like houses and cars.”

  22. My dad had a mild heart attack on Tuesday afternoon culminating in a quadruple bypass Friday morning. He’s still in the cardiac ICU. It’ll be interesting to see when/if the hospital starts limiting his number of visitors.

    1. Sorry to hear that happened, but glad if it is recoverable from.

      Be there for your family as needed, and don’t feel any pressure to hang around with us weirdos 🙂

    2. “My dad had a mild heart attack on Tuesday afternoon culminating in a quadruple bypass Friday morning.”

      Best wishes for a swift and full recovery for your dad and if he plays guitar tell him “quadruple bypass” would be an awesome name for a Boomer rock band.

      1. “quadruple bypass” would be an awesome name for a Boomer rock band

        It would! Professor?

        Thanks for the well wishes. Wednesday and Thursday were an absolute whirlwind. I can’t imagine how it was for my dad. He did say it was quite an amazing experience waking up after surgery and realizing he’s still here.

        1. Maybe it’s time to let my hair down and morph from classical to Boomer rock? I subbed in a show for a friend the past couple of nights in what was essentially a rock band with a few classical instrumentalists thrown in. It was pretty much fun!

          1. “I subbed in a show for a friend the past couple of nights in what was essentially a rock band with a few classical instrumentalists thrown in. It was pretty much fun!”

            It sounds like “quadruple bypass” has already performed!

  23. Good luck to your dad. I have friends and relatives who made remarkable recoveries from similar procedures.

    Why do you expect the hospital to limit his number of visitors?

    1. Susceptible populations. The same hospital limited my visitors to 2 when my son was born 10 years ago because of the flu.

      1. Is your concern related to the Wuhan coronavirus or the ordinary flu? The latter is a far greater risk to your dad.

        1. Something far deadlier than the Wuhan coronavirus lurks near you, right here in America
          Liz Szabo | Kaiser Health News Updated 11:07 a.m. PST Jan. 24, 2020

          There’s a deadly virus spreading from state to state. It preys on the most vulnerable, striking the sick and the old without mercy. In just the past few months, it has claimed the lives of at least 39 children.

          The virus is influenza, and it poses a far greater threat to Americans than the coronavirus from China that has made headlines around the world.

          “When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there’s just no comparison,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and health policy at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

          “Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison. The risk is trivial.”
          …

          1. “Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison. The risk is trivial.”

            Such bold proclamations are for fools.

          2. China is not treating this as your typical flu strain.
            Feel free to cover your ears and bury your head in the sand on this one.

          4. Al Jazeera quoted this:
            Alex Krüger
            @krugermacro

            Mortality rates

            Flu (influenza) 0.14%
            Coronavirus 4%
            SARS 11%
            Ebola 40-70%

            Contagiousness

            Flu (influenza) 1-3
            Coronavirus 1.4-2.5
            SARS 2-4
            Ebola 1.5-2.5

            (Contagiousness = R0 = average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. Sources: CDC, WHO)

          5. Interesting comparisons between different deadly diseases contagion an mortality rates. It seems a bit early to predict the coronavirus contagion rate, especially if it can be spread before symptoms present. This suggests that there may be a large and rapidly growing number of latent cases which will soon drive the documented case count up much higher.

            And paradoxically, diseases with lower mortality rates may end up infecting many more people, depending on how long an individual with the disease is contagious. Diseases that don’t quickly kill their hosts have more time to propagate, and the presymptomatic stage may allow for more opportunities than would a more lethal illness.

        2. Anything at this point. Even though restrictions are in effect for the 2020 flu season, they don’t appear to be enforcing those very well. Children under 14 is the only one they’re being strict about.

          1. My conversation with an infectious disease physician Thursday night about infectious undocumented immigrants getting treatment at that facility coupled with lax enforcement of existing restrictions isn’t exactly reassuring.

          2. Even less reassuring is that many of those illegals either prepare or handle the food prepared at most restaurants.

          3. Racis.

            The narrative of “cultural relativism” has been scripted for you by your betters, because they’re better than you.

        3. I have canceled or cut sort vacation trips when I have come down with simple URI’s (note that a great many serious & potentially fatal illnesses seem to start out as “simple URIs”). Many of the folks I like to visit are elderly & I do not want to pass anything nasty on to them. This is particularly important when visiting acutely or chronically ill people.

        4. Local flu death count rises to 32
          Posted 3:32 PM, January 22, 2020, by City News Service, Updated at 03:33 PM, January 22, 2020

          SAN DIEGO — A dozen influenza deaths were recorded in San Diego County last week, bringing the season’s total to 32, the Health and Human Services Agency reported Wednesday.

          Twenty-four flu-related deaths had been confirmed at this time last year, health officials said.

          The HHSA also recorded 2,292 local lab-confirmed cases last week compared to 487 cases reported in the county during the same week last year, when the season-to-date total was 3,130. The 9,919 cases reported to date this season now exceed the 9,655 cases detected in all of last season, according to health officials.

          “The number of deaths and cases being reported are a sign that influenza is not easing up,” said Dr. Wilma Wooten, the county’s public health officer. “Vaccination is the best defense we have against the flu. People who have not gotten immunized should do it now.”
          …

          1. “Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison. The risk is trivial.”
            Such bold proclamations are for fools.

            Exactly, particularly since the virus continues to mutate and seems to be passed from human to human easier. It may turn into something worse than the bird flu before it is all over. That is not a prediction that it will happen just a caution that it might happen.

          2. Yep, we should be worried more about the flu. CV, which causes pneumonia is less of a worry…even though it’s twice as easy to contract, and can incubate in humans for up to 14 days (fully transmissible).
            Flu is the real worry…yep.

  24. Bernie’s open borders policy is what will be his undoing. Because other than that, he says a lot which resonates with the have-nots, which is unfortunately the majority of people in this country. I think he’d have a decent shot of winning if he was for strong borders.

    “(Bloomberg) — Bernie Sanders goes after Jamie Dimon in a new campaign ad, labeling the JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer “the biggest corporate socialist in America today.”

    1. Wait until the working class gets a load of all his new taxes that will affect them.

      I recall telling a liberal acquaintance that sales tax (VAT) in the UK is 20%. His eyes almost popped out of their sockets.

    2. Bernie’s open borders policy is what will be his undoing. Because other than that, he says a lot which resonates with the have-nots, which is unfortunately the majority of people in this country. I think he’d have a decent shot of winning if he was for strong borders.

      I agree. He had the right policies on immigration last time since he was old left. He is trying to be more woke this time and I think it only weakens him.

    3. I’ll be voting for Bernie in the now-open (as of 2020) Colorado primary. I disagree with many of his policies, but it’s one last chance to give a big fat middle finger to Hillary, Obama, Biden and the rest of the billionaire pedophile bought and paid for DNC.

      1. +1. I will be doing the same. Monkey-wrenching the corrupt Establishment Democrats is a patriotic duty.

      2. +1 Same here, i just changed my voter registration to Unaffiliated so i can vote for Bernie in the Democrat primary.

          1. I’m sensing the same desperation that gave us Trump.

            No one is correctly describing the problem or providing real solutions, because those who benefit from things as they have been don’t want to hear it.

    4. Yet he used to be so good on immigration. The only Democrat who was for immigration control.

      What a sellout.

        1. We have a private school for wayward kids around here. I once sat next to the just resigned second in command guy. He was traveling to a new job. He told me he’d rather work for someone who was giving up a fortune to help kids than for someone who was helping kids to make a fortune.

          I’d rather have a leader who is giving up a fortune to serve the country than someone who serves the country to make a fortune.

  25. DOW futures down 262 points. Holy crap. Have the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed finally lost control?

    2. Coronavirus and Mideast tensions aren’t the stock market’s biggest problems this week, strategist warns
      By Shawn Langlois
      Published: Jan 26, 2020 9:10 p.m. ET
      Coronavirus is scary, but one strategist says investors have a bigger worry.

      ‘My guess is if we’re going to rationalize a market that’s pretty stretched right here, it’s going to happen right now. We have about a third of the S&P 500 reporting. We’re going to see the losers lose a whole lot more than we’ve seen in a while. The index itself could probably pull back 3% to 5%.’

      That’s longtime stock-market bull and National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan offering up his bearish stance in a CNBC interview ahead of what looks to be a very busy week of trading.

      He said the S&P 500 (SPX, -0.90%) could see a pullback of as much as 5%.

      “Stocks are relatively priced for perfection, and you tend to have a bit of an overreaction to bad news or in-line news when that happens,” he continued.

      With a crowded slate of earnings on tap, Hogan warned that it will probably be the biggest winners getting the biggest haircuts.

      “There are five technology names that are driving a good chunk of the movement in the S&P. On the other side, you see the utilities index,” he explained. “The index is trading at 25 times and it’s throwing out a dividend that’s less than 3%. Both of those numbers are historically stretched. This is an index that usually trades at 16 times and has about a 5% dividend.”
      …

    3. Market freakout time?

      Dow futures tumble on fifth US case of coronavirus
      By Rob McLean, CNN Business
      Updated 11:42 PM ET, Sun January 26, 2020

      New York (CNN Business)
      US stock futures dropped sharply Sunday night as fears of the coronavirus grew.
      Dow (INDU) futures fell by as much as 300 points, and were last down about 240 points, or 0.8%. S&P 500 (INX) futures were down about 0.9% and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were lower by about 1.2%.

      In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 (N225) was last down 1.8%. It is the only major stock market in Asia open Monday due to the Lunar New Year.
      Eighty people have been killed by the coronavirus, according to Chinese health officials. There are also more than 2,700 confirmed cases.
      …

      1. Uncontained?

        U.S. stock futures tumble as China coronavirus spreads, worries escalate
        By Barbara Kollmeyer
        Published: Jan 27, 2020 2:39 a.m. ET
        Oil prices drop, gold rises as investor anxiety rises
        Getty Images
        A woman walks in front of a New Year’s sign in Wangfujing on January 26, 2020 in Beijing, China.

        U.S. stock futures indicated sharp losses for major indexes on Monday, continuing a drop seen from late last week, as concern grows over the fallout from China’s coronavirus, with the death toll and number of infected climbing dramatically from last week.
        How are benchmarks performing?

        Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YMH20, -1.20%) slid 282 points, or 1%, to 28,649, while those for the S&P 500 (ESH20, -1.20%) slid 33 points, or 1%, to 3,260.25. Nasdaq-100 (NQH20, -1.48%) tumbled 116.25 points, or 1.3%, to 9,030 — tech stocks have been in out in front of the gains so far in 2020.
        …

    4. DOW futures down 412 last time I checked. Global markets a sea of red. Janet Powell will be panicking and officially announcing QE4 in 3…2…1….

    1. I hit up a guy on craigslist who was selling a lot, big ocean view over coffee fields. I drove by earlier, the pad for an old garage is still there so I ask him what happened to the house? He said he had a tenant, evicted, cleaned up the mess and 4 days later the house was burned down. I asked him if he was in jail (first dozen or two felonies are on the house in pedocrat controlled Hawaii) and no response. $300K for 1/4 acre is what hes asking. A house down the street is for sale for about $750K, old and in need of some fixing. My friend used to rent it for I think $1800/mo.

      Driving through the neighborhood, I noticed a few homes that were pretty run down, looking empty. Probably lots of mold and critters.

      1. If a $750k house is renting for $1,800, I’d say that vacant lot is worth a whole lot less than $300k.

      2. BruddahKai.

        You didn’t mention island, but from description sounds like Big Island, Kona side?

        Termites. Huge issue in Hawaii.

        Most certainly need a termite inspect, condition of sale.

        Also, inspect USGS maps for ancient lava flows.

        Good friend lost beautiful, tropical home in Kīlauea volcano eruption last year.

    1. The speculators are far from finished. Things are much busier than last year this time, thanks to the lowering of rates. The sooner we get to zero, the quicker the end of this whole thing, because there’s really no way to juice prices after that.

  30. Ahhh. Swedish death cleaning continues on a cold Sunday… It’s amazing what people will pay for memorabilia.

    1. There’s lots of coronavirus crater on Wall Street this morning. Dow down 400 or so.

      Good time to buy the dip before the paint gets slapped on the tape?

  35. It gets worser and worser…and it sounds like the number of Chinese cases may have been underreported so far.

    Fox News
    Coronavirus
    Published 1 hour ago
    Dr. Oz on coronavirus outbreak: Chinese leaders’ new comments ‘alarming’
    By David Montanaro | Fox News
    Dr. Oz on Chinese nurse’s explosive claim about true number of coronavirus infections

    Dr. Mehmet Oz said Monday on “Fox & Friends” that thousands of additional coronavirus cases will soon be confirmed in China and expressed alarm about the incubation period being specified by Chinese officials.

    China on Monday expanded sweeping efforts to contain a viral disease by extending the Lunar New Year holiday to keep the public at home and avoid spreading infection as the death toll rose to 80.

    Hong Kong announced it would bar entry to visitors from Wuhan, the mainland province at the center of the outbreak, following a warning the virus’ ability to spread was increasing. Travel agencies were ordered to cancel group tours nationwide, adding to the rising economic cost.

    CORONAVIRUS: 56 DEAD AND 1,975 INFECTED AS CANADA REPORTS 1ST CASE

    Increasingly drastic anti-disease efforts began with the Jan. 22 suspension of airplane, train and bus links to Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in central China. That lockdown has expanded to a total of 17 cities with more than 50 million people.
    …

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