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Cheap Money Caused The Last Crisis And Is Storing Up The Next

A weekend topic starting with Sheila Bair, the former Chair of the FDIC. “It’s been said of academia that the fights are so vicious because the stakes are so small. The same could be said of fights over bank regulation. Take the current heated debate over banks’ obligations to lend to low and moderate income (LMI) communities under the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). Regulators are arguing over the right metrics to use in crediting banks with CRA lending. But they are failing to ask the more fundamental question of whether increased debt is really the right way to help financially vulnerable families.”

“I do not discount the importance of these disagreements. The CRA has provided tremendous benefits to LMI neighborhoods. But the problem it was designed to address is not the problem that confronts these communities today. In 1977, the problem was a credit shortage for lower income families. Now, it is the existence of too much credit, often high-cost and aggressively marketed to financially distressed households.”

“With consumer debt once again at historic highs and disproportionately falling on low-income families, the government’s focus should be on helping those families build wealth and reduce reliance on debt. True modernization would focus on this reality.”

“Regulatory missteps during the subprime crisis underscore the risks in the government trying to direct profit-seeking banks to lend to financially inexperienced borrowers. Congress should consider reorienting CRA to wealth building, and away from lending. Let’s reward banks working with their mortgage borrowers to build home equity through regular pay-down of principal rather than giving them credit for cash-out re-financings or home equity loans.”

“Regrettably, CRA is just one example of how government policies continue to encourage borrowing in the misguided belief that debt expands economic opportunity and growth. We have piled $1.5 trillion of student debt on the future of our young people. We continue to provide massive subsidies for other forms of borrowing and further encourage it through ultra-low interest rates. But debt is not a sustainable engine for prosperity. Borrowers can only borrow so much. Eventually it needs to be repaid. A vibrant middle class supported by real wage growth and wealth accumulation is the only path to lasting economic health.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Lenders extended $2.4 trillion in home loans last year, the most since 2006, according to industry research group Inside Mortgage Finance. That was also a 46% increase from 2018. A refinancing frenzy, induced by last year’s trio of interest-rate cuts, fueled the mortgage making and helped steady the industry. Low rates aren’t always entirely good for those first-time buyers. Low rates can also inflate home prices, since borrowers can afford bigger mortgages and might bid more for homes than they otherwise would.”

From Reuters. “U.S. homebuilder PulteGroup Inc forecast full-year home sales above Wall Street estimates. Prices for first-time homes fell 8% to $342,000 in the fourth quarter, the company said, with entry level buyers accounting for 32% of all purchases. ‘Orders and gross margins would likely also benefit from looser lending standards, and we believe that this opportunity will drive multiple expansion across the group,’ Evercore analyst Stephen Kim said.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Nearly 32,000 condos are scheduled to be completed this year, according to Urbanation. That is an unprecedented number of new units with about two-thirds in the city of Toronto and the remaining in the surrounding regions including York. The benchmark price, or the average asking price of a new condo minus the lowest and highest values, rose to a record high of $916,585 last year in the Greater Toronto Area, according to the Altus report.”

“Part of that is driven by investors, said Simeon Papailias, a realtor with Royal LePage Signature Realty who specializes in preconstruction sales: ‘Regular people are seeking ways to grow their wealth and investments.'”

“Three interest-rate increases created uncertainty in the market and sales of new condos and single-family homes declined in 2018. The stress test ‘disproportionally impacted single-family homes because of the higher costs,’ said David Wilkes, president of the industry group Building Industry and Land Development Association.”

“The Altus report shows the average prices for houses and condos converging. While the benchmark price for a new condo climbed over the past two years to $916,585, the benchmark price for a new single-family house fell to $1,088,317 over the same period.”

From Domain News in Australia. “All the initial places in the federal government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme have been snapped up, as new borrowers rush to take advantage of record-low interest rates and the renewed vigour in the property market. Jane Slack-Smith, a mortgage broker with Your Property Success, who is otherwise a fan of the scheme, agrees the property price caps are limiting. ‘The people we’re talking to are saying the caps are way too low.'”

“‘On one hand, borrowers don’t have to save as much in a deposit to take out a loan. But they need to borrow the amount they otherwise would have saved. Instead of saving $120,000 and borrowing $480,000 for a $600,000 house, you might only need to save $30,000. But your home loan will be $570,000 — and you are paying interest on the higher amount,’ says financial services firm Pitcher Partners’ client director, Jason Fallscheer.”

“Another potential problem is that in the rush to secure a property, buyers may make ill-informed choices. ‘People may not make well-researched decisions on where to buy,’ says Slack-Smith. This could cause problems down the track when the froth comes out of the property market.”

The Times of London in the UK. “Low interest rates are great for borrowers, and one in particular. From the state’s point of view, it’s magic. It can borrow more and shrink the debt burden in one miraculous go. But what if we look at low rates another way? The cheap money comes from pension funds and savers, who bake in a real-terms loss on every transaction. In the eurozone, where financial institutions have paid €25 billion to the European Central Bank to deposit money on its -0.5 per cent interest rate, the effect is even worse. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, chairman of Société Générale, and Frank Appel, the Deutsche Post boss, call negative rates a tax.”

“‘Who pays the bill?’ Mr Appel asked at Davos, before answering his own question. ‘The citizens. So it is a hidden tax. If you start with that language, you probably get to different conclusions about what is going on.'”

“Twelve years after the financial crisis, with rates more or less unchanged, it is time to call out easy monetary policy for what it is: a tax on the future. There was never much secret about it, anyway. The defining idea was ‘financial repression,’ to use sub-inflation interest rates to shrink sky-high levels of public debt. Low interest rates do not create growth, they merely borrow it from tomorrow.”

“As Lord King of Lothbury, the former Bank of England governor, wrote in The End of Alchemy: ‘This is a short-term effect. After a time, tomorrow becomes today. As time passes, we will be digging larger holes in future demand. The result is a self-reinforcing path of weak growth.'”

“Cheap money caused the last crisis and is storing up the next. Not in the banks this time, but in the younger generation. Andrew Bailey, the incoming governor, has warned of a looming savings crisis because the young can neither earn interest income nor keep up with ballooning asset prices.”

“Viewed over a lifetime, they have more non-property debt, buy homes later in life and will need larger mortgages that take much longer to repay than previous generations, leaving less time to save for retirement. It is their future that low rates tax, the consequences of which are not yet clear — much as policymakers blithely celebrated the democratisation of debt before the 2008 crisis.”

“Low rates keep growth ticking over now at the expense of future stability. The Bank’s analysis says that low rates dull productivity by silting up the engine of creative destruction and misallocating capital. Global debt levels are higher than ever, too. Cheap money spared us a worse crisis but is now the problem. What may be great for the state will cost us dear.”

This Post Has 175 Comments
  1. ‘Prices for first-time homes fell 8% to $342,000 in the fourth quarter, the company said, with entry level buyers accounting for 32% of all purchases. ‘Orders and gross margins would likely also benefit from looser lending standards’

    Lining up suckers who you are going to push underwater next quarter.

    1. The Trump boom in a nutshell. He’s taking their last dollar, just as he did at his casinos.

      Politicians are more popular, and profits are higher, when people get to spend money they weren’t paid. The fact that there is devastation in the future?

      https://reason.com/2020/01/29/republican-deficit-hypocrisy-will-make-americas-debt-problems-much-harder-to-solve/

      “Nor does Trump appear to worry much about what happens down the road. When Trump advisers warned in 2018 about the possibility of a future deficit crisis, Trump reportedly shrugged it off, saying, ‘Yeah, but I won’t be here.'”

      The bi-partisan Generation Greed consensus — about everything.

          1. Lil’ Mikey Bloomberg is unelectable.

            He’s got those nagging associations with Weinstein, Epstein and Madoff.

  2. ‘The Altus report shows the average prices for houses and condos converging. While the benchmark price for a new condo climbed over the past two years to $916,585, the benchmark price for a new single-family house fell to $1,088,317 over the same period’

    Take a look at the horse-hockey we have thrown at us. New airbox prices were inked maybe years ago. And they don’t bother to tell us just how much wealth destruction the shacks took. These were areas with heavy Chinese speculation BTW. And the media used to shout it to the sky constantly to gin up even more speculation from locals. “We’re all gonna be rich cuz these Chinese people will pay anything and they’ll never run out of money!”

    1. How is the Chinese speculator slice of housing demand holding up to the coronavirus outbreak?

      This coronavirus discussion may seem off topic to some, but I predict that in six months, the relevance to housing will be crystal clear when viewed through the lens of the rearview mirror.

      1. Hey Prof I agree We will look back at this just as we have every other “flu”. Can you elaborate on your 6 month prediction? I personally believe this will be used as an excuse to set forth the inevitable downward economic spiral. I think with this flu or without it the outcome and timeline would still be the same. Foreign capital flight has been restricted for years now, if anything they likely have more pressure to escape now than before.

        1. “I think with this flu or without it the outcome and timeline would still be the same. Foreign capital flight has been restricted for years now, if anything they likely have more pressure to escape now than before.”

          I agree it is being used to cover up for a lot of manmade excesses. Of course, the virus itself seems manmade but that is another discussion.

        2. The news that asymptomatic carriers can spread the disease, coupled with the alarming growth rate in new cases, and almost daily announcement of cases in new locations, means that this fast-spreading disease outbreak is much more challenging to control than SARS was. Hence containment measures are likely to be far more extreme and economically disruptive than what the world is accustomed to seeing in response to a disease outbreak. The consequences to consumer markets, including housing, are thus likely to be larger than expected, as will only become obvious to most in retrospect.

          1. “…many Chinese do not even know there is a problem…”

            And that, in turn, may lead many unsuspecting citizens to carry on their lives as usual, exposing them to the risk of contracting the disease through contact with latent carriers.

          2. Hence containment measures are likely to be far more extreme and economically disruptive than what the world is accustomed to seeing in response to a disease outbreak.

            Like the federal quarantine order not seen since the 1960s.

          3. Thanks to government censorship many Chinese do not even know there is a problem:

            They must be really rural…anybody with a WeChat account knows.

      2. This coronavirus discussion may seem off topic to some

        I don’t think it’s off-topic at all. The 600-point drop in the DOW on Friday is the first real indication “the markets” (and the algos responsible for 80-90% of all trading volume) are finally catching on that the coronavirus could be the black swan that craters global markets as well as seriously disrupting global supply chains. Apple just announced that it’s closing all of its stores in China, which is going to be a major hit to earnings and AAPL’s lofty share valuations (which have underpinned much of the DOW’s meteoric rise since Trump’s election). Oil is tanking as scared people hunkering down indoors will slash demand. Consumption in general will follow.

        But…but…but the globalists assured us China and the rising consumption of its expanding middle class would be the engine of a global boom. Hubris, meet virus. Right now it looks like the central bankers’ asset bubbles and Ponzi markets are getting ready to pancake, big-time, with a resultant wipeout of fake wealth starting in the stock market but rapidly spreading to the financial sector, then the housing market. The Fed can’t reinflate its bubbles without creating the kind of Weimar Republic 2.0 hyperinflation that would trigger social unrest and a huge groundswell of public anger against the globalist elites and their Fed accomplices. So I think the relevance for housing is already crystal clear, even to the dissemblers of the REIC and the corporate media shills, despite their happy talk.

  3. “The cheap money comes from pension funds and savers, who bake in a real-terms loss on every transaction.”

    Social Security would not have any issues if it had the returns made by the stock market over the last decade. Instead it is in trouble because it received the returns of the low bond rates.

    1. Yeah, let the Wall.$treet.Wanker$ touch the end.of.life fund$ of America’$ elderly.

      Brilliant strategy!

      1. Wall Street has used the cheap money of financial repression to become insanely rich, social security has paid the price, I am not advocating a strategy I am pointing out the result and no administration engaged in financial repression more than Obama’s hence the reason Mr Banker is richer than 2008 but many middle class Americans are not.

        1. ” …no administration engaged in financial repression more than … ”
          Look down below this post for a rea$on to cough up yer brain $tuck hairball$:

          MARKET$
          Trump says the Fed should cut rates so the US can pay down its $23 trillion$ debt

          1. He may be jawboning but interest rates have gone up under his presidency they stayed at rock bottom under Obama. That is the fact.

          2. “…interest rates have gone up under his presidency…”

            That’s a normal consequence of running large deficits.

    2. Bond yields would have had no trouble had the Fed and other central banks not used a protracted period of Quantitative Easing and other balance sheet expansion measures to suppress bond yields and drive a bovine herd of unprecedented size into stocks, housing, and other risk assets.

      1. “…interest rates have gone up under his presidency…”
        That’s a normal consequence of running large deficits.

        His deficits have averaged significantly less than Obama’s even in nominal terms. It terms of the GDP it is not even close. No it is not the size of the deficits, the Fed has raised interest rates.

    3. FYI East St Louis has been a financial clusterfork since at least the early 1980s. Imagine a miniature version of Detroit.

      The Financial Times
      FTfm Pensions industry
      Pension crisis: US seeks to save flawed state benefits system
      Politicians try to improve funded status of plans as liabilities and contributions soar
      Patrick Mulholland
      8 hours ago

      For the nine firefighters of Engine House No. 425 in East St. Louis, Illinois, the looming US pension crisis is not some distant concern that will play out during their retirement. It has already arrived and it’s coming for their jobs.

      The local mayor’s office last year said the city’s revenues had been intercepted by the Illinois State Comptroller’s Office, and redirected to plug a $3.9m hole in its local public safety workers’ pensions.

      Soon after the city announced one of the three fire houses would close, a move that was then delayed following the interventions of the state firefighters’ union.

      And it did not end there. Brooke Smith, City manager, warned “additional cuts in other departments” were possible.

      1. Somehow, I think these kinds of problems could have been averted if public employees had to wait until their mid 60’s to start collecting their pensions vs. retiring at 55.

        1. Jobs like a fireman, policeman, prison guard, etc., can be dangerous in your mid 60s to yourself and those who depend on you.

          1. Jobs like a fireman, policeman, prison guard, etc., can be dangerous in your mid 60s to yourself and those who depend on you.

            Having to wait until mid-60s to collect the pension doesn’t mean you have to work in the job until 60+.

      2. privsec workers will work till 70 so gov workers can retire in their 50s
        55 in my county w 75% of pay

          1. Why don’t you get a job with your county government if it is such a sweet deal?

            Because you need to have a relative or friend who already works there, otherwise you’re SOL.

    4. “Social Security would not have any issues if it had the returns made by the stock market over the last decade. Instead it is in trouble because it received the returns of the low bond rates.”

      After the financial crisis federal disability (SSDI) became the de-facto unemployment for the hard-scrabble red state yokels that lost jobs to off-shoring. The blue coastal states are packed with angry minorities who are on SSDI because they lack the IQ necessary in the modern tech companies, and liberals need to buy their votes. Hence, the Social Security fund is in trouble.

  4. In 1977, the problem was a credit shortage for lower income families.

    Um, yeah…in 1977, this “credit shortage” helped keep housing and rents affordable, and protected the manifestly non-creditworthy from their own stupidity and poor impulse control.

    1. Back then if you had a credit card, you had just one, a BankAmericard or a MasterCharge. When you went on a trip you either took cash with you, or travelers checks (do those still exist?)

      1. travelers checks (do those still exist?)

        Don’t know. My first Army payday in basic training on February 1st (or was it January 31st) of 1987 was the last time I saw one. They paid us in traveler’s checks until the direct deposit kicked in. It was a cold rainy day on Ft. Jackson wearing my stinky smelling p-p-p-poncho. I had never smelled that smell before in my life.

  5. ‘warned of a looming savings crisis because the young can neither earn interest income nor keep up with ballooning asset prices…Viewed over a lifetime, they have more non-property debt, buy homes later in life and will need larger mortgages that take much longer to repay than previous generations, leaving less time to save for retirement’

    And less to spend on other things in life day after day. These idiots are actually running global finance! And they can’t see that higher housing costs come at the expense of the real economy and peoples well-being. When you talk about central banks, it is often said, what do you replace them with? How about a room full of mannequins? It would cause less damage.

    1. “When you talk about central banks, it is often said, what do you replace them with? How about a room full of mannequins? It would cause less damage.”

      – Yes, correct, IMHO. Also the mannequins are infinitely smarter and don’t draw a salary. Note that the Fed has over 18K employees, and judging from Powell a bunch of dummies.

      – The current economy is as good as it gets, but Fed Funds Rate (FFR) is only 1.75% and debt (consumer, corporate, national) is through the wazoo. How’s this going to look when we have the next recession?

      – The Federal Reserve Banks: “Doing the most harm since 1913.”

    2. All we’ve heard from economists for two decades is “savings glut” – too much savings out there! Now, suddenly, a savings crisis. I guess that savings glut was just a bubble lie all along.

  6. I am really a bit perplexed how little coverage the collapsing Indian economy led by real estate is getting in the press. It is not an insignificant economy right now and the globalists were counting on it to lead the world in the future. Perhaps that is the reason we are not hearing too much about it, a lot of the globalists’ investments are at serious risk and we might look at our own big banks risk exposure, just another tea leave:
    https://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/budget-2020-fm-sitharaman-budget-130851956.html

  7. ‘Huanggang City, to the east of Wuhan, decided to enact a ban against vehicles from entering and leaving the city—suggesting that the scale of the outbreak there is far worse than what authorities are reporting.’

    ‘Hubei governor Wang said at a Jan. 29 press conference that the number of confirmed cases are quickly increasing in Huanggang and three other nearby cities—Xiaogang, Jingmen, and Xianning. He said he was worried Huanggang could become another Wuhan.’

    ‘According to official statistics as of January 2019, Huanggang has 6.34 million residents.’

    ‘Chinese authorities only began updating the outbreak death toll since Jan. 22. But experts from the UK and Hong Kong have estimated that the true figure of infections could reach 250,000 people in Wuhan alone by Feb. 4.’

    ‘In recent days, some Chinese officials have made indirect hints at the true scale of the outbreak. Liu Yingzi, director of the Hubei health commission, said on Jan. 29 that there were more than 170,000 medical staff working on the frontlines treating coronavirus patients.’

    ‘Meanwhile, doctors from Hubei hospitals told state-run media that they lack the human resources to treat patients. Some of them have worked for more than 24 hours straight.’

    ‘On Jan. 22, state-run Jiangsu Television reported that an Wuhan doctor was infected with the coronavirus after treating patients for 11 days. He was under self-quarantine and told his family members that he had worked 26 hours straight, as there were too many patients at the hospital.’

    ‘And at a Jan. 30 press conference, Zhang Wenhong, leader of the outbreak response team in Shanghai, said: “Based on the current situation, this coronavirus will spread more broadly. I’m responsible for my words here and I can tell you the estimation of overseas experts are correct,” he said, without naming which experts he was referring to.’

    ‘Official figures report less than five thousand infections in Hubei.’

    ‘On Jan. 29, Zeng Guang, the chief scientist of epidemiology at China’s CDC, made a rare candid admission about why Chinese officials cannot tell people the truth, in an interview with the state-run tabloid Global Times. “They [the officials] need to think about the political angle and social stability [in order to keep their positions] ,” Zeng said.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-senior-health-officials-struggle-to-answer-questions-about-coronavirus-as-another-city-is-under-full-lockdown_3219647.html

    1. If you look at the Hubei numbers in the dashboard and you compare them to all the other numbers for cities or countries, including cities in China, they make no sense. In plenty of other Chinese cities significant numbers of people have actually recovered but no one has died. The disease looks very deadly in Hubei but outside of Hubei a death rate of 2 to 4 percent even looks like it errs on the high side. The numbers only make sense if you assume Hubei is still lying about the total number of cases and it is much higher than admitted. Suggesting, that they hid this outbreak for many months and while serious the virus is neither very deadly nor very infectious, this is much more like the Hong Kong flu in the late 1960’s, except for the fact this is probably a deliberately created virus by the Chinese:
      http://www.coronavirus.city/

      1. “The disease looks very deadly in Hubei but outside of Hubei a death rate of 2 to 4 percent even looks like it errs on the high side.”

        You keep saying this. What makes you so convinced that the 4 percent number is a reasonable upper bound? Did you read my post yesterday explaining why it might be seriously low?

          1. Why did the confirmed cases jump almost 2,000, but not a single death was added? Seems suspicious, like everything else coming out of China.

          2. I know you can’t train new doctors that fast.

            They were sending military doctors by the planeload a couple weeks ago. Maybe they can staff new buildings that way.

          3. They want a dedicated red-zone hospital for coronavirus patients to put them all in one place and free up other hospitals for regular medicine.

            The death rate may be very much lower because China is running out of test kits. Therefore, they are only testing those with evere symptoms and turning everyone else away. That would skew the death rate to the high side. Those turned away are going home and maybe recove, not counted as either confirmed or dead/recovered. We may never know the true death rate.

          4. “Therefore, they are only testing those with severe symptoms and turning everyone else away.”

            Are you saying that the folks with mild symptoms are not being counted among those with the illness, and are getting sent home?

            I hope you are wrong, as this sounds like a great recipe for increasing the spread of the disease from those with mild symptoms to vulnerable subpopulations.

        1. I did read your explanation but it only makes sense if the official numbers are accurate, as I am demonstrating if the official numbers were accurate we would be seeing more deaths outside of the epicenter. In plenty of cities outside the epicenter the present death rate is 0% and the virus has been in those cities long enough for people to fully recover.

          1. More big jumps in China as the Chinese move the numbers up to reflect reality. More tea leaves, look at Thailand which was one of my candidates where the virus could really break out. 19 cases but no deaths and 5 patients have already reached the cured stage.

        2. Total deaths outside of Hubei 10, total recovered outside of Hubei, 119 which means raw data rate is 7.7% but logic and data shows that it is far more likely that the people who die will die earlier than the people who will be declared recovered. Professor, I just do not understand how you cannot see that the official Hubei data is an outlier. Some day there will be a death outside of China but the longer it takes, the more obvious it should be to everyone that this is not an Ebola like virus and is in fact not much worse than the worse flu strains.

          1. I get that the data are not consistent from place to place, making it difficult to assess which data is most representative of the overall reproductive number and death rate.

            Regarding the absence of deaths so far among 100 or so cases outside of China, you can conclude very little about the actual death rate from such a small sample size. For instance, if the true death rate was 2%, there would be an approximate probability of 0.98^100 = 13.3% of seeing no deaths so far. According to old school statistical hypothesis testing, one could not reject the null hypothesis of a 2% death rate at the 5% level of significance.

            Timing is also a relevant issue, as the more recent cases are those outside China, which means they are less likely to have final outcomes at this point (survival or death). The effective sample size is thus less than 100, making the actual mortality rate even more uncertain than in my calculation.

          2. “Some day there will be a death outside of China but the longer it takes, the more obvious it should be to everyone that this is not an Ebola like virus and is in fact not much worse than the worse flu strains.”

            That was fast.

            Coronavirus Live Updates: Death in Philippines Is the First Outside China
            The New York Times
            38 mins ago

            And the worse flu strains are nothing to sneeze at. The 1918 Spanish flu outbreak infected about one out of three humans and killed 20 to 50 million people. By contrast, WWI is estimated to have resulted in 20.5 to 22 million deaths, likely a smaller number than were killed by the ensuing epidemic.

          3. ““Some day there will be a death outside of China but the longer it takes, the more obvious it should be to everyone that this is not an Ebola like virus and is in fact not much worse than the worse flu strains.”’
            “That was fast”.

            One death after weeks was fast? My grandfather lost his entire first family to Spanish flu so the worse strains of flu are bad, However, that was one hundred years ago when we did not have any effective medicines to fight either viruses or the bacterial infections that follow viruses. The same virus today, is not going to have the same impact. By June or July there will probably be a vaccine. Medicine has progressed in the last hundred years. However, so has biowarfare, China should not be allowed to develop such viruses without consequences.

          4. “One death after weeks was fast?”

            One death within hours of your post suggesting it could be weeks was fast.

          5. China should not be allowed to develop such viruses without consequences

            Running with unsubstantiated rumors and theories?

  8. Looks like Biden should have been eating at Golden Corral to save some campaign funds. His campaign looks like it is on its last legs particularly since the DNC is changing the rules to give Bloomberg a better chance. Funding totals and the amount in the bank, I believe Trump has well north of $200 million saved and no particular reason to be spending heavily, no primary for him:
    https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/01/31/joe-biden-has-less-cash-ahead-of-early-nominating-contests-than-top-rivals/

      1. He’s done more for the common man and the democratic party then all the other candidates combined…The way the beat the radio, Fox and Trump hate machine is with a honorable, capable candidate that has unlimited resources…

          1. I likely have more guns than you…Common sense gun restrictions is something most gun owners support and the majority of the nation…He is on the correct side on this…I have seen your 2nd amendment allies in Charleston & Sandy Hook…Enough…

          2. I have seen your 2nd amendment allies

            Oh my.

            We’ve seen socialist dictators and what they do to people who are without the capability of raising a militia and will have none of that. We actually appreciate the whole Constitution.

          3. We actually appreciate the whole Constitution ??

            Sure you do as witnessed over the last few days & weeks…

        1. Biden has done a great deal for the common man … until he started looking the other way as illegal immigrants poured over the border and then promised them health care, while the “common man” is paying through the nose. It all depends on which results you want at the moment.

          And stop saying “common sense.” Common sense is just someone’s opinion.

          1. Common sense is just someone’s opinion ??

            Stop ?? LOL…

            Regarding gun controls common sense is “most” peoples opinions in this country…

          2. Regarding gun controls common sense is “most” peoples opinions in this country…

            I see. And did the same pollsters who assured us Hillary would easily beat Trump conduct the polls that show “most” people support “common sense gun control”?

      2. Yes, and there will soon come a point when people will be repulsed by his arrogant view that he can buy the presidency and we are not far from it as he crosses the $300 million mark in spending. Trump has all the money he needs to run a well funded campaign. A white, Jewish, former Republican, billionaire is not going to turn out the black and or Muslim base of the Democrats and his globalism and gun grabbing is not going to appeal to the white blue collar swing voters. Run him and make the Republican party even bigger.

        1. when people will be repulsed by his arrogant view that he can buy the presidency ??

          Oh…I see…Its okay for billionaires to fund Trump due to citizens united but if a billionaire on the other side funds himself that’s repulsive…Got it…

          A white, Jewish, former Republican, billionaire is not going to turn out the black ??

          Bloomberg/Abrams…Jews, blacks and some military votes could be all it takes to flip Florida…Its already close as you can see in the last Gubernatorial election…Check Mate…

          Run him and make the Republican party even bigger ??

          LOL…The true Republican party no longer exists dude…Just look at the number of republicans that have decided not to seek reelection or have left the party…Just look at the number of republicans that lost in 2018…More to come…

          1. The Republican party became just like the Democrats nothing more than a puppet for the globalists. It is turning into a real party and the puppets like Senator Flake have no role to play in it. Bernie would be a head by a
            Ton if he had stronger Black support. If you think the fact that he is Jewish is not part of that you are very naive. But that is the inherent weakness of the Democrats many of the groups actually hate each other. You have gays and many Muslims who are waiting to throw them off high buildings and similar other rifts. Diversity is strength is just a slogan. History has shown populations are bound together by their commonalities not their differences.

          2. Bloomberg is trying to buy the Presidency by (1) coming late to the party and using his money to try to catch up (2) using his money instead of hitting the pavement. Say what you will about Trump, at least he holds rallies with the people.

            Bloomberg/Abrams? I don’t have a good handle on the community, but ISTM that the attraction of a POC running mate is far less powerful now that we’ve already had a two-term POC President who did a pretty good job. Abrams would be seen as pandering to the Nth degree.

          3. The true Republican party no longer exists dude

            It is starting to look like the other party will either put forward a dyed in the wool socialist or a liberal Republican. Good riddance to both of those long standing parties, and may Globalism go out the door with them.

        2. “Trump has all the money he needs to run a well funded campaign … ”

          Is dtRumpsis taxe$ $till being “audited”? What is it, like x9 years now?

          1. “Sure you do as witnessed over the last few days & weeks…”

            Yes, the constitution was protected. The Democrats tried to use the constitution for an entirely partisan purposes, had a kangaroo court in the house with no witnesses even allowed to be called for the defense. Stacked the constitutional witnesses two to one. Their two were completed partisan Democrats. The Republicans called a moderate fair Democrat who said no impeachable conduct occurred. A few fair Democrats voted against impeachment. The Senate essentially by summary judgment will find the same thing. Sorry Nancy, this is not a stain on Trump. Thirty years from now when historians look at this event, it will be Nancy who will be stained by using the impeachment process authorized by the constitution for improper political purposes.

        1. Are you suggesting that filling stadiums is a desirable attribute in a politician? Because history offers some cautionary examples.

          1. History offers many more inspiring examples than cautionary examples. I can think of two at the Lincoln Memorial.

          2. ‘Are you suggesting that filling stadiums is a desirable attribute in a politician?’

            If it’s in a state Obama won – twice, probably.

            ‘Because history offers some cautionary examples’

            An interesting statement considering we’re less that 24 hours from the UK throwing off the chains of an unelected super-state run by the Huns.

  9. “@SamRo Rich people own stocks. Poor people own houses” – (chart from GS report) Twitter’

    ***

    ‘Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry made a speech in Quebec Thursday that strongly implied the central bank is reluctant to cut interest rates in light of current high household debt levels,’

    “He argued that elevated financial vulnerabilities in an economy created a conflict between the short term aims of central banks and the long-term effects of their monetary policy decisions. “[A] fall in interest rates can now cause an initial boom in economic activity as more household debt increases consumption”, he said, “but this may be followed by a later bust if the accumulation of household debt becomes a drag on consumer spending.” In other words, the Deputy Governor suggested central banks needed to stay alert to the fact that, in trying to fulfill their mandate, say by easing monetary policy in the short term, they could create problems in the future that would make it harder for them to fulfill their mandate in the long term.”

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-rich-people-own-stocks-poor-people-own-houses/

      1. (May bee he should walk in & shoot Powell in the head)

        Trump says the Fed should cut rates so the US can pay down its $23 trillion$ debt

        CNBC | By Jeff Cox | Jan 28th 2020

        The national debt has swelled during the Trump administration to $23.2 trillion, an increase of 16.4%. The fiscal deficit was more than $1 trillion for calendar year 2019.

        President Donald Trump made another pitch to the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, this time saying that doing so could help the U.S. pay down its burgeoning national debt.

        In a tweet Tuesday morning, the president said again that the central bank should cut its key lending rate so it’s more in line with that of its global peers.

        However, he extended the argument this time to note that cheaper debt could mean a reduction in the national red ink.

        Trump urged the Fed to “get smart” and “make our interest competitive” with other countries.

        “We would then focus on paying off & refinancing debt!” he wrote.

        1. “We would then focus on paying off

          Call me old fashioned, but the way to pay off debt is to stop spending more than you have.

    1. $664,000
      3 bd 2,378 sqft
      2023 Summit Dr, Paso Robles, CA 93446

      12/30/2019 Foreclosure auction $598,935 unpaid balance
      Home in default
      8/17/2016 Loan issued $540,038

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2023-Summit-Dr-Paso-Robles-CA-93446/15411581_zpid/

      4166 Modoc Rd, Santa Barbara, CA 93110
      Auction

      12/26/2019 Foreclosure auction $781,260 unpaid balance
      8/11/2019 Home in default $22,918 past due
      2/12/2007 Loan issued $650,000

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4166-Modoc-Rd-Santa-Barbara-CA-93110/15904174_zpid/

      1. Foreclosure Est: $925,514
        4 bd3 ba2,479 sqft
        484 Via Sorrento, Morgan Hill, CA 95037

        Look at this beauty:

        bd2 ba2,029 sqft
        4237 Chanate Rd, Santa Rosa, CA 95404

        Auction

        12/24/2019 Foreclosure auction $1,051,052 unpaid balance
        9/15/2019 Home in default $99,253 past due
        5/31/2018 Loan issued $938,000
        2/15/2016 Loan issued $938,000

        https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4237-Chanate-Rd-Santa-Rosa-CA-95404/15870064_zpid/

        BTW, I don’t know why zillow shows two loans in the same amount but I see that regularly. From auction site:

        Est. Resale Value
        $1,297,000
        Opening Bid
        $900,000
        Est. Debt
        $1,051,052

        Who loaned a million bucks on this box?

          1. https://www.calliance.com/about

            ‘Capital Alliance and its affiliates are mortgage bankers and real estate asset managers headquartered in San Rafael, California. We enable borrowers or their brokers access to an array of residential loan products with special expertise in providing non-QM, bridge, renovation and short/long term financing for all of these property types. In addition, we provide investors and investment professionals’ access to equity and debt-related real estate investments.’

            ‘Since 1991, Capital Alliance and its affiliates have funded and either held in portfolio or sold nearly $1 billion of all types of mortgage loans. These loans have been jumbo, conforming, non-conforming and construction, both fixed and adjustable, owner occupied and investment properties for single-family residences, multi-family, mixed-use residential and other commercial properties. As a result, Capital Alliance has developed special expertise in providing bridge and short-term financing for these property types. Capital Alliance has provided this expertise to one publicly traded mortgage REIT (until 2007) and to two “captive” limited liability companies that it formed and capitalized.​’

            Jeebus, look at this:

            https://www.calliance.com/loan-products

            Foreign National

            Solutions for non-US citizens purchasing an investment property or vacation home in the US.​

            Loans up to $5 million

            LTV to 75% & to 50% DTI

            Social Security # or US Credit Not Required

            Foreign Credit Accepted

            Recent Credit Event OK

            Cash Out options available

            Unlimited Number of properties financed

          2. Check out the Consumer Purpose, up to $5mil –

            “Mortgage Lates OK
            10 year I/O on 30 & 40 year Fixed
            Pull out equity of O/O property while listed for sale”

            !!!

            It’s like looking into the abyss of a giant sucking black hole of credit. Un.be.lievable.

          1. I’m pretty sure that’s just a garage or outbuilding to the main house. If you zoom in the map view on google maps, you can see that there are three structures in the same property plot. The zestimate comp is $1.37 million, which makes more sense — I mean relatively more sense. It’s still CA.

      2. 2023 Summit Dr, Paso Robles, CA 93446

        The stairs from the street to the front door look more hazardous than rustic.

        1. Every day the parallels to Housing Bubble 2.0 become more striking, right down to the loose lending, captured regulators and enforcers, and media REIC pom-pom shakers.

  10. Intelligent innovation$ = how to create a better widget.

    Tesla releases first Model Y production picture, hints at body manufacturing breakthrough

    Elected | Fred Lambert – Jan. 31st 2020

    In an interview last year, CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla is moving to an aluminum casting design instead of a series of stamped steel and aluminum pieces for the Model Y body:

    When we get the big casting machine, it’ll go from 70 parts to 1 with a significant reduction in capital expenditure on all the robots to put those parts together.

    This would represent a major breakthrough in body manufacturing, and the images represent the first visual proof that Tesla is making it a reality.

    The automaker has designed a giant new machine to be able to produce vehicle frames in almost one piece.

    https://electrek.co/2020/01/31/tesla-model-y-production-pictures/amp/

      1. They’re talking about unibody which is body+frame integrated.

        Doing this in with MIM (metal injection molding) systems at this scale is a big risk as the metallurgy needs to be precise as does the temperature and injection pressures. Voids/bubbles and temperature-induced fracture planes from bad process could really up the scrap count. Also, in almost all MIM processes there is some further machining required. Then we have to talk about mold maintenance and the inventory of huge, heavy and expensive molds they’ll need to carry to do this at volume…

        It almost looks like he’s going to build large “Hot Wheels”. They’ll be disposable as it’ll be almost impossible to fix any damage to the unibody structure. Parts of the frame that take constant punishment, like the suspension mounting points, could wear quickly, depending on the design, and ruin the car. Audi had this issue with their R7/R8 ‘supercars’.

        1. They’ll be disposable as it’ll be almost impossible to fix any damage to the unibody structure.

          This crossed my mind. A fender bender could end up getting the car totaled.

    1. Awesome website. I can’t even scroll the page without JavaScript enabled :/

      (was curious to read about the breakthrough)

    1. Thanks for posting that.

      Technically it’s a nonlinear regression, unless one first takes the logarithm of the number of cases before fitting a linear regression line, with number of days since the start of the data as the independent variable. A straight line fits this data very well, implying exponential growth in the number of confirmed cases.

      I tracked the SARS outbreak in real time back in 2003. It fit the exponential growth model very closely at the onset, but the growth in cases was quickly extinguished when quarantine measures were undertaken. This was effective because the disease was only contagious if symptoms were present.

      Transmission by latent carriers makes the current coronavirus outbreak more challenging to contain.

      1. Technically it’s a nonlinear regression

        🧠💨 I was more focused on the R^2 and its implications.

        1. This thing seems so contagious and widespread (thanks, airlines) that it may just infect every human being on earth before all is said and done. The up to two week incubation period where people are still contagious is really troubling. I’m worried about getting this.

        2. the R^2 and its implications

          All it means is that the data is in a straight line. This is only true for the last four days of official CCP data. Before that there is an obvious progression. The person posting that graph says explicitly that we must not trust the CCP data. I’m not sure there are “implications”.

          1. It’s also possible for a regression line to fit a few real data points with a very high R^2, especially in for the number of cases in the initial stages of an epidemic, when the growth is truly exponential.

            Eventually, as the health authorities bring it under control, the fit will deteriorate, and predictions from the fitted exponential model will overestimate the daily numbers of new cases.

  11. “…the fights are so vicious because the stakes are so small.”

    Musicians can attest to that principle.

    1. Wow, everyone should fear a flu that humans don’t have immunity to, or it has a high death rate.

      So far , I’m thinking that it has a 2 to 4% death rate in China, but at the same time I don’t trust their information.

      But, I heard another doctor say in essence that even lethal virus burns itself out with time and becomes less lethal because it mutates.
      It’s a interesting concept because it sounds like the virus doesn’t gain by killing the host.

      1. This is a weird thought. Is a virus just a life form looking for a home and a little food and it really doesn’t want to kill it’s host. Embrace your virus and say hi to it, but than tell it to leave because your not a hotel handing out free food.

        1. Ok, I’m going to have to say this because nobody else will.

          Don’t you think you guys are being a little prejudicial to virus life form. Didn’t you know that diversity is our strength. It really is very racist . And this banning of flights coming in from China is just beyond the pale of lack of diversity tolerance.

          ….as I fake being a liberal

        2. A theory about viruses I read about many years ago went something like this:

          1. Once a virus enters one of your cells it stays in the cell. If it does not destroy the cell then it sort of makes peace with the cell. Making peace with a cell means it remains dormant; It does not harm the cell nor does it help the cell. It merely remains in the cell unless irritated or disturbed in some way.

          A good example of this is a recurring cold sore flareup; The virus that causes the recurring flareup of a cold sore will always be present in the cell once the person has been infected, but it will not always be in a flared up state. In fact most of the time it will not be in a flared up state and this is because it has “made peace” with the cell.

          2. When another biological entity invades the cell this biological entity is forced to encounter not only the cell’s natural defense but also it must encounter the previously dormant virus. This usually does not fare well for the new guy that decides to invade the cell.

          3. Because of this the virus, assuming the person survives the initial attack of the virus, extends its survival rate of the person beyond the survival rate that would otherwise occur.

          This is something (a theory) I came across some many years ago and I welcome others more knowledgeable than myself to blow what I have just stated clear out of the water.

          1. Here is another uneducated theory from my warped mine.

            This theory goes on the notion that if it doesn’t kill you it makes you stronger.

            Let say if a virus doesn’t kill you, it becomes part of you just hanging out in some cell. Than when another virus attacks the parasite former virus is woken and told another homeless virus is trying to get in on a good thing. So, the virus attacks the new virus along with the human host immune system fighters.

            Thats why I say that one needs to embrace their virus because they might help you in the end.

            While the above theory is nuts, It also might be true.

          2. “I just know I don’t wanna get that AIDS sh!t again”.

            — Former Coworker with a good sense of humor

  12. 1) A weekend topic starting with Sheila Bair, the former Chair of the FDIC.

    “But they are failing to ask the more fundamental question of whether increased debt is really the right way to help financially vulnerable families.”

    Quotes from “Jurassic Park”, 1993:

    Dr. Ian Malcolm: “you’re selling it, you wanna sell it. Well…”

    John Hammond: “I don’t think you’re giving us our due credit. Our scientists have done things which nobody’s ever done before…”

    Dr. Ian Malcolm: “Yeah, yeah, but your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could that they didn’t stop to think if they should.”

    “In 1977, the problem was a credit shortage for lower income families. Now, it is the existence of too much credit, often high-cost and aggressively marketed to financially distressed households.”

    “Regrettably, CRA is just one example of how government policies continue to encourage borrowing in the misguided belief that debt expands economic opportunity and growth.

    “But debt is not a sustainable engine for prosperity. Borrowers can only borrow so much. Eventually it needs to be repaid. A vibrant middle class supported by real wage growth and wealth accumulation is the only path to lasting economic health.

    – Bingo!

    2) The Wall Street Journal. “Lenders extended $2.4 trillion in home loans last year, the most since 2006,”

    – Is that a lot?

    Low rates can also inflate home prices, since borrowers can afford bigger mortgages and might bid more for homes than they otherwise would.

    – Insert my shocked face here…

    3) The Times of London in the UK.

    Low interest rates are great for borrowers, and one in particular. From the state’s point of view, it’s magic. It can borrow more and shrink the debt burden in one miraculous go.”

    “But what if we look at low rates another way? The cheap money comes from pension funds and savers, who bake in a real-terms loss on every transaction.

    “‘Who pays the bill?’ Mr Appel asked at Davos, before answering his own question. ‘The citizens. So it is a hidden tax. If you start with that language, you probably get to different conclusions about what is going on.’”

    Twelve years after the financial crisis, with rates more or less unchanged, it is time to call out easy monetary policy for what it is: a tax on the future. There was never much secret about it, anyway. The defining idea was ‘financial repression,’ to use sub-inflation interest rates to shrink sky-high levels of public debt. Low interest rates do not create growth, they merely borrow it from tomorrow.

    “As Lord King of Lothbury, the former Bank of England governor, wrote in The End of Alchemy: ‘This is a short-term effect. After a time, tomorrow becomes today. As time passes, we will be digging larger holes in future demand. The result is a self-reinforcing path of weak growth.’”

    – “You cannot spend your way out of recession or borrow your way out of debt.” – Daniel Hannan, Member of the European Parliament

    – Current (unproductive) debt is demand pulled forward. At some point, non-central bank entities reach their credit limit and the future becomes the now. We are there for consumer and probably corporate debt, while the Fed keeps printing to buy more U.S. Treasuries. I’m sure it will work out OK though, because the Fed and Government are our betters, and Wile E. Coyote “super geniuses. Bring on the mannequins. Please.

  13. Here is a side note on the economy: Bitcoin futures have been decreasing over the past week, while gold has been increasing steadily. I will keep an eye on this. Gold has already proven throughout history that it can handle a true human crisis, not just of a financial one. We’ll see how Btc does. FYI silver is jumpy.

    1. The reason silver and gold don’t really move quickly is because it’s too difficult to buy and sell. Anything that can be bought and sold with a couple keystrokes is where the day traders and greedheads congregate. Bitcoin is where the criminals are.

    2. I would look st B.C. price in the longer-term. Short-term forecasts are nearly impossible to make or predict. B.C., to me, appears to be a classic asset bubble. First peak: Dec., ’17 (~20K). Second, lower (echo-bubble) peak: Jun., ’19 (~14K). If it is a bubble, and historical behaviors hold true, then ultimate price is original price (<1K). Back to the future. Time will tell. See 5 yr. chart here:

      https://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=BITCOIN_BITSTAMPUSD

    3. Gold and silver, and their mining stocks, are about the only undervalued assets left. Precious metals (PMs) love negative real interest rates; they’re a store of value against central bank financial repression, and inflation/money printing. B.C. is a thought experiment. Is a digital currency, and so can be hacked (and has been hacked). I’m not sure it’s really limited in quantity. PMs can’t be hacked, are real money; a store of value; protection against nefarious and kleptocratic central bankers.

      “Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt.” – Herbert Hoover

      “All the money and all the banks in Christendom cannot control credit…Gold is money and nothing else.” – JP Morgan’s 1912 Congressional testimony on “the justification of Wall Street”

      “Fiat money eventually always goes back to its intrinsic value – zero” – Voltaire

      Got gold?

      1. “Gold and silver, and their mining stocks, are about the only undervalued assets left.”

        I agree and I own some. However, when I look at the option prices in the near future, they are not predicting much higher from here. The insiders buy and sell options on their inside information so I tend not to ignore what they are doing as opposed to what they are saying.

        1. Since few own PMs, plunge protection authorities won’t hesitate to throw them under the bus to help prop up the values of more widely distributed asset classes (e.g. stocks and housing).

  14. From https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-infectivity-pathogenicity-and-virulence:

    Infectivity is an organism’s (a bacteria, virus, fungus, parasite, etc.) ability to infect you. You can be infected but not sick, and there are plenty of times when you’re infected but the organism doesn’t cause disease.”

    Pathogenicity is a organism’s ability to cause disease. Some organisms are harmless and can live on you or in you without you even noticing. But, if they do cause some sort of disease process, then they are called “pathogens”. Some pathogens are less pathogenic than others. For example, E. coli is pathogenic depending on the strain. Others are pathogenic all the time, like HIV, where you will progress to AIDS almost 100% of the time.

    Virulence is a measure of the degree of disease that a pathogen causes. For example, there are some very virulent influenza viruses out there that will knock you out and might even kill you. On the other hand, you might catch a strain that infects you, causes disease, but the disease isn’t so bad. In that case, the organism is infectious, pathogenic, but not very virulent. Ebola, on the other hand, is very infectious, very pathogenic (because most people who are infected develop disease), and very virulent (because it causes a severe, often fatal disease).

    1. V as in Vector
      V as in Velocity
      V as in Vulnerable

      Market$
      The Velocity of Ri$k Goes Viral in Financial Market$
      $ocial media and more complex global $upply chain$ make coronavirus a different ball game than SARS

      Bloomberg | By Sarah Ponczek and Michael P. Regan
      January 31, 2020

      “And the second, which to me is probably the most interesting, is the social media impact. So rewind to 2003, you would see about 100,000 tweets per day.

      Today you see that amount in about one single minute. So that transitioning of fear and knowledge is so much faster, and seeing that transition to portfolios quickly. And the third thing, probably most important, is the global supply chain. It’s a lot more complex, it’s a lot more intricate. So even companies that don’t necessarily come across like they have a direct exposure to china, somewhere along the way, they have exposure.”

      Paranoia about the coronavirus is spreading rapidly around the world, and the reaction in financial markets has been swift. Principal Global Investors strategist Seema Shah joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how the “velocity of risk” is much faster now than it was during the outbreak of a similar virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome or SARS, in 2003.

      “We point to three different areas where you would expect that velocity of risk to be quicker in this kind of instance. And the first thing is asset valuations. They are a lot more expensive than, certainly, what we saw in the 2003 episode, which means that as we came in to 2020, risk assets were already very vulnerable to any kind of shift in global sentiment, which is exactly what we’re seeing today. So you could see sharper pullbacks in the market. “

    2. Very interesting redpilled.

      But, what if humans never were really born with a immune system built in Let say that humans were just a pure vessels ready to host battles between virus bums.

      This assumption that the disease process is the immune system fighting foreign Invaders could be wrong. In other words, maybe its one virus fighting another virus. Maybe humans just have this big terrain of space in their body that life form could live in. I know this is a icky thought. They talk about good bacteria in the gut versus bad bacteria in the gut. Isn’t that implying that you got foreign Invaders fighting each other and a balance of power battle is going on.

      I’m not convinced that medical science had the true untold story down yet.

      1. what if humans never were really born with a immune system built in

        We wouldn’t survive long enough to reproduce.

        “a balance of power battle is going on”

        The virus needs the host to replicate and propagate. If the virus kills the host too fast, it kills itself. The virus is the one balancing infectivity, pathogenicity and virulence within its very small genome. That’s why I find viruses so fascinating.

        1. Wow redpilled , I always enjoy your posts.

          But, did your post confirm that the. virus has some control over killing the host, or did I read that wrong.

          1. Control isn’t the right word. And again, this is why they are so fascinating. From https://serc.carleton.edu/microbelife/yellowstone/viruslive.html quoting “The Bacteriophage T4 Virus”:

            “Viruses straddle the definition of life. They lie somewhere between supra molecular complexes and very simple biological entities. Viruses contain some of the structures and exhibit some of the activities that are common to organic life, but they are missing many of the others. In general, viruses are entirely composed of a single strand of genetic information encased within a protein capsule. Viruses lack most of the internal structure and machinery which characterize ‘life’, including the biosynthetic machinery that is necessary for reproduction. In order for a virus to replicate it must infect a suitable host cell.”

            “Viruses exist in two distinct states. When not in contact with a host cell, the virus remains entirely dormant. During this time there are no internal biological activities occurring within the virus, and in essence the virus is no more than a static organic particle. In this simple, clearly non-living state viruses are referred to as ‘virions’. Virions can remain in this dormant state for extended periods of time, waiting patiently to come into contact with the appropriate host. When the virion comes into contact with the appropriate host, it becomes active and is then referred to as a virus. It now displays properties typified by living organisms, such as reacting to its environment and directing its efforts toward self-replication.”

          2. When not in contact with a host cell, the virus remains entirely dormant. During this time there are no internal biological activities occurring within the virus, and in essence the virus is no more than a static organic particle.

            One question…does this mean that viruses can’t be “killed”? They can only be destroyed or rendered ineffective? Does freezing disable them?

        2. It’s also encouraging to know that the most successful viruses are those that evolve to balance infectivity, pathogenicity and virulence. It would be terribly unfortunate for the future survival of viruses and humanity for one to evolve that was at the high end of the scale in all three categories, particularly if victims were contagious during a long latent stage.

    1. The street view depicts a blue collar neighborhood, mowed lawns, no bars in the windows, the kind of place that raises eleven-bravos for Uncle Sam.

    1. My nephew is a big wig at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong this may be why they sent him and his family to Park City a week ago?

      1. As I said above about gold and silver, watch what the insiders do as opposed to what they say. They do have the information.

  15. From https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-cdc-seventh-case-us:

    Military installations in Colorado, California and Texas were selected to house the evacuees and will help to assist the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) with the operation, if needed. They are the 168th Regiment Regional Training Institute in Fort Carson, Colo.; Travis Air Force Base in California; Lackland Air Force Base in Texas and Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in California.

  16. Ode to Central Bankers…

    Money for Nothing
    (apologies to) Dire Straits

    I want my—I want my MMT [4x]

    Now look at them yo-yos, that’s the way you do it
    You print money by the MMT
    That ain’t workin’ that’s the way you do it
    Money for nothin’ and your chicks for free

    Now that ain’t workin’ that’s the way you do it
    Lemme tell ya them guys ain’t dumb
    Maybe get a blister on your little finger – (CTRL print)
    Maybe get a blister on your thumb – (CTRL print)

    We got to install microwave ovens
    Custom kitchen deliveries
    We got to move these refrigerators
    We got to move these colour TVs

    Money for nothin’, chicks for free
    Get you money for nothin’, get your chicks for free
    Get you money for nothin’, and the chicks for free
    Get you money for nothin’, and the chicks for free

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets volatility
      Traders pay up for protection against sharp falls in US stocks
      Spreading coronavirus and looming presidential election has investors on edge
      Jennifer Ablan in New York and Robin Wigglesworth in Oslo January 30 2020

      Traders have been scrambling to protect themselves from a collapse in US stocks, spooked by the coronavirus outbreak, the looming presidential race and the sheer strength of last year’s rally.

      The US equity market climbed 29 per cent in 2019 and started this year strongly, but the spreading nervousness has sent the S&P 500 index down by about 2.5 per cent since the middle of the month.

      The Cboe Volatility index — known as the market’s “fear gauge” — suggests that traders are now bracing for sharper moves. The 10-day moving average volume of Vix call options — derivatives that allow traders to benefit from a spike in turbulence — has increased from 200,000 traded at the start of January to about 400,000.

      The Vix itself has climbed from a low of about 12 points in mid-January to over 18 on Thursday, when the S&P 500 index was off by 0.7 per cent by midday in New York.

      There are many negative factors “that are screaming for a big stock sell-off”, said Stephen Aniston, president of vixcontango.com, a volatility trading analytics provider.

      We now see the market fully valued, particularly within US equities. This is not going to persist indefinitely.
      — Erin Browne, Pimco

    2. Markets
      Market Closure, Coronavirus Disrupt Pricing on China ETFs
      While China’s stock markets have been closed, billions of dollars in exchange-traded funds made up of Chinese A-shares have been trading, and they have fallen sharply
      As the coronavirus spreads, investors are taking bearish views of China’s economic outlook. Photo: carlos garcia rawlins/Reuters
      By Steven Russolillo in Hong Kong and
      Michael Wursthorn in New York
      Updated Jan. 31, 2020 5:13 pm ET

      Exchange-traded funds pegged to mainland Chinese stocks face one of their biggest pricing dislocations in years, as the country’s stock market braces for the financial fallout of the worsening coronavirus outbreak.

      China closed its markets starting Jan. 24 for the Lunar New Year holiday, just as the number of its citizens infected with the pneumonia-causing virus was starting to mount. As of Friday, the virus had sickened more than 9,500 people world-wide and killed more than 210.

      Even though trading of mainland-listed stocks isn’t expected to resume until Feb. 3, billions of dollars in exchange-traded funds made up of Chinese A-shares have been trading this week, and they have fallen sharply while prices of their underlying assets remain frozen at Jan. 23 levels.

      “The combination of local Chinese equity markets being closed, along with the coronavirus, makes this one of the riskier periods for ETF pricing disruptions in the region in a while,” said Todd Rosenbluth, senior director of ETF and mutual-fund research at New York-based investment-research firm CFRA.

      One particular fund, called the ChinaAMC CSI 300 Index ETF, which tracks 300 of the largest stocks listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen, dropped about 8% this week. Another one that tracks the 50 largest Chinese companies by market cap—the CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF—fell by a similar magnitude.

    3. The Financial Times
      Investors flee Hong Kong stocks as coronavirus death toll rises
      China-focused shares in the city have experienced their worst week in almost 2 years
      Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong yesterday

      Chinese stocks in Hong Kong suffered their worst weekly performance in almost two years as the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak rises.

      The Hang Seng China Enterprises index — which tracks mainland Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong — has fallen 6.7 per cent this week, its steepest decline since February 2018, as investors dumped shares.

      Concern among investors about the contagion has grown in recent days, with the number of infections in China having surpassed the global total from the deadly Sars epidemic in 2002-2003.

      Traders are now bracing for a sharp sell-off when equity markets in the mainland Chinese cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen return from an extended lunar new year holiday on Monday.

      When they “reopen the market [it] is going to be quite harsh . . . The last thing [the Chinese government] really needs is for the stock market to really crash out”. said Andrew Sullivan, Hong Kong-based director at broker Pearl Bridge Partners.

  17. The nightmare scenario for China’s corrupt CCP rulers is social unrest, which may be getting closer as disaffected Chinese lash out at their Communist overlords. The lady’s anger over unaffordable housing and warning that “everyone will see the economic bubble burst” wouldn’t be out of place on the HBB.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-woman-whose-relatives-died-from-wuhan-coronavirus-berates-the-chinese-regime-video_3223223.html

    A local from Wuhan City videotaped herself lashing out at the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for the way it handled the coronavirus outbreak that has killed scores of people in China, including her own relative(s). The video was recorded on Jan. 26 and has since gone viral on Chinese social media.

    Speaking in a local dialect, she asked angrily, “Chinese Communist Party, when are you going to step down? You promised us that Chinese people will enjoy ‘moderate prosperity’ in 2020, but what have we attained [from you] so far? We lost our relative(s) [because of you]!”

    “The soaring home prices and high cost of living have caused hardships for Chinese residents. And now so many people are dying. Everyone will get to see the economic bubble burst,” she said.

    “You should bear the consequences of your actions. Do not implicate us ordinary folk. Now we are bearing the brunt of it, and we are being sacrificed for what you have been doing!”

    She then asked, “What on earth are you? Are you humans or devils?”

    Her video has been shared by many Chinese Twitter and Facebook users. Followers of her video highly praised her tirade. Some said they particularly liked her last question, saying “What a great question, asking Party officials if they are ‘humans or devils’—it is right to the point.”

    Several followers commented, “Do not beg the CCP to step down. Overthrow the CCP.”

  18. The PBOC is getting ready to inject another $174 billion into its Ponzi markets when they reopen on February 3rd, but will that be enough to offset a massive sell-off as fear overtakes greed? Also, what impact will a shock Bernie Sanders win in Iowa – despite the DNC rigging the primary in favor of the corporate Democrat favorites Biden and Fauxahontus – have on the algos in our own Ponzi markets?

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/China-to-inject-174bn-of-liquidity-on-Feb.-3-as-markets-reopen

  19. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-coronavirus-deaths-infections-jump-latest-updates-200202000738703.html

    As I said above, Thailand has been containing the virus quite well. Now we may know why, it has been using HIV drugs. Sites have been blocked due to suggesting that China spiced HIV genes into the virus but they are clearly there if the drugs are helping. So how did a snake virus become infectious to man and with HIV genes occur without a little help from a bio-warfare center 20 miles from the epicenter of this epidemic?

    1. Wow, I hope this isn’t true that HIV was added.

      This whole idea of any Country trying to develope germ warfare is pure evil. They would be sitting up a potential to kill their own population.

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