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There Is So Much Inventory, Sellers Have To Act Fast Or The Buyer Will Move On To Another Option

A report from the Bakersfield Californian. “A partially built housing development off Highway 178 has become the focus of a police inquiry after contractors working on the project went unpaid and one of the development partners sued another alleging misappropriation of millions of dollars. Bakersfield Police Department Sgt. Nathan McCauley said the agency is investigating locally based Tarina Homes Inc. for ‘possible embezzlement’ after a substantial sum appears to have gone missing from corporate accounts.”

“County records show the project entered foreclosure in December after Tarina missed a half million-dollar mortgage payment due Oct. 25. That was shortly after a number of local construction companies filed liens claiming they were owed hundreds of thousands of dollars for work and materials, records show. Shamrock Hills homeowners Fidel and Noemi Orozco said they love the home they and their three children moved into Sept. 1 on Turning Leaf Lane. But since noticing a gaping hole under one corner of their home, as well as a large depression on their front lawn, they said they have been unable to get anyone connected to the project to address the situation. Noemi said Tarina can’t be reached and the property’s original landscaper has refused to fix the problems because the company wasn’t fully paid for its work.”

“‘It’s frustrating,’ she said. ‘We don’t know what to do about it and who to contact about it to be heard.'”

“A local developer hired by the project’s lender in recent months to complete work on Shamrock Hills said he has tried to help homeowners there ‘because it’s the right thing to do.’ But he said he has no legal responsibility to make repairs and that their best recourse is to reach out to whichever contractor did the work. ‘Tarina’s not going to be back there to help them,’ Jeremy Willer said. ‘There’s nothing left in the company.'”

“Tarina’s former offices at 4560 California Ave. appear to have been abandoned. Neither of the primary owners, Chris Johnston and James McKay, responded to requests for comment.”

The Daily Republic in California. “Q: I went to a wealth seminar that, in part, talked about how to protect your property from foreclosure. One of the things the speaker stressed was the need to file a homestead on your property. They said you can stop a foreclosure by filing a homestead on your house. I’m currently several months behind in my house payments and I want to try to stop the foreclosure and keep my house, so I need to file my homestead right away. Is this something I need a lawyer for?”

A: I hope you didn’t pay a lot of money for this seminar. If you paid anything, you got ripped off. Almost all of the information in your email is wrong, at least in California. There’s no magic process that lets you fail to pay your mortgage and still keep your house, at least not in California. But that doesn’t seem to stop people from charging admission to seminars that sell little more than false hope.”

The Herald Tribune in Florida. “Even with the latest $2.75 million price cut, it’s still the most expensive home for sale in the Sarasota-Manatee region. The Longboat Key mansion came on the market in early 2017 for $26.5 million, a local record list price. It was reduced a year ago to $22.5 million, and this month lowered to $19.75 million by owners Mike and Michele McKee. Michael Moulton, the broker-associate with Michael Saunders & Co. who has the listing said no more price reductions are looming. ‘One step at a time, as there has not been any further discussions concerning price,’ he said.”

From Yahoo Finance on Florida. “Tech billionaire Manuel Medina has already moved to Miami and out of his lavish Coral Gables mansion he paid $7 million for in 2013, but he hasn’t had luck finding a buyer. So, on February 14, Medina will auction off his waterside mansion in one of Florida’s most exclusive gated communities, without a reserve price — meaning there is no minimum bidding price. Medina first tried to sell his Coral Gables home in March 2018 for $17.9 million. Two years later, without a buyer, Medina decided to auction off the house.”

“A property at 41 Arvida Parkway, near Medina’s mansion, recently sold at auction this spring for only $25.5 million — less than half its $68 million listing price, according to reports.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “The European-style villa owned by Houston restaurateur Johnny Carrabba is still available for purchase after more than a year on the market and a $2 million price cut. Located in the Sherwood Forest subdivision, Carrabba’s home was first listed in 2018 for $18,950,000, the Chronicle reported. It’s now up for grabs with an asking price of $16,500,000.”

From Realtor.com on South Carolina. “Even with a recent price cut from $25 million to $17.5 million, the historic 2,510-acre Twickenham plantation near Yemassee is still the most expensive home in South Carolina. Initially listed in October 2018, the property had its price cut by 30% on Jan. 9. ‘The owner just said, ‘let’s drop the price and see if we can get it sold,’ says listing agent CJ Brown. ‘He owns a lot of different properties around the country, and they’re spending more time at some of the other properties right now.'”

From Westport Now in Connecticut. “While the overall real estate climate is warmer than usual and we are experiencing heightened activity, it by no means that we have crossed into a sellers market. There are now 226 homes that are actively on the market, which has decreased by 27 properties from last year at this time. These currently available properties have been listed for an average of 1647 days, with a cumulative market time of 297 days, which is almost identical to that of last year.”

“The average list price is down approximately $193,000 from a year ago to $1,974,910 and the median price is at $1,398,500, which is down by $126,500 from a year ago at this time. Twenty-two new listings came on the market in the last seven days, and four properties came back on the market after being under deposit, or temporarily withdrawn. There were 11 properties in the past week that had a price change.”

“An estate on Beachside Avenue is the highest priced home on the market, and is currently listed at $16.75 million, after a recent price reduction of $3.25 million. The lowest available priced single family is a three-bedroom two-bath bungalow style ranch on .12 acres at 17 Hale St., which was built in 1939. The bank owned property is listed at $344,000.”

From Business Insider on New York. “The price threshold for Manhattan luxury homes fell to $3,816,835 in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to StreetEasy. This means that in order for a home to fall into the luxury sector of Manhattan’s market, it must be priced at or above $3,816,835. According to the report, the price threshold has fallen to its lowest level since 2013 and saw a 6.1% drop from last year.”

“The report also found that in the fourth quarter of 2019, the median home price in Manhattan fell 3.7% to $1,086,217 and the median amount of days a home lingered on the market rose to 96 — 10 days more than the median last year. Despite the fourth-quarter price drops, StreetEasy revealed that Manhattan’s luxury inventory rose 12.2% over the previous year and its total sales inventory rose 3%.”

“Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that, according to an analysis by Halstead Development Marketing, Manhattan has 7,050 unsold newly built units. If inventory continues to unload at the same pace as 2019, it could take over six years to sell all of the borough’s unsold units. Considering the glut of prime real estate, it’s no surprise that luxury homes are sitting on the market longer — and with lower price tags — than previous years.”

“In July, one of Manhattan’s top real-estate brokers, Lisa K. Lippman, told Business Insider that a lot of sellers in Manhattan have to come to terms with the fact that their properties are no longer valued at the same prices they were a few years ago. She also told Business Insider that since there is so much inventory, when a property gets an offer, sellers have to act fast or the buyer will move on to another option.”

From Bravo TV on New York. “Bethenny Frankel has finally sold one of her condos in the Soho area of NYC, though at a significant loss. After a few years of trying to field an offer, The Real Housewives of New York City alum dropped the price of the two-bedroom, 2,392-square-foot property, located in a prestigious building on a cobblestone street, to $3.995 million, which is just below the $4.2 million that she paid for it back in 2014.”

“A buyer who was lined up in November unfortunately fell through, but a new buyer has since come through and purchased the property for the price of $3.65 million, which is several hundred thousand dollars below the asking price and is also $550,000 less than what she paid six years ago.”

This Post Has 204 Comments
  1. So now we have abandoned new subdivisions in California. Still no bubble?

    ‘I went to a wealth seminar that, in part, talked about how to protect your property from foreclosure’

    1. I went to a wealth seminar that, in part, talked about how to protect your property from foreclosure’
      I guess pay the mortgage was not one of the suggestions?

      1. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that “Live within your means” and “Never spend more than you earn” were not among the talking points.

      2. The fact that we are at a point where its gone from flipping seminars on how to avoid losing your shack to foreclosure seminars is very telling where we are at. This guys response to some idiot FBs question should be common sense.

        “Look, the only real way to keep your house out of foreclosure is to pay your mortgage. That might mean getting the bank to restructure your loan, though it’s a long shot. Filing bankruptcy delays the foreclosure for a few weeks, but that’s about all.“

    2. “Tarina’s former offices at 4560 California Ave. appear to have been abandoned. Neither of the primary owners, Chris Johnston and James McKay, responded to requests for comment.”

      Here yesterday,
      Gone today.

      1. California’s ever-vigilant regulators and enforcers will even now be beating the bushes to find these rapscallions and bring them to justice.

        I slay me….

        1. “…rapscallions…”

          Okay, had to look-up another one. 😐

          Do you stay up late reading a Thesaurus while I’m busy looking at manual transmission cars, hang gliders and scantily clad ladies?

  2. “‘It’s frustrating,’ she said. ‘We don’t know what to do about it and who to contact about it to be heard.’”

    In California’s endemic culture of corruption, good luck seeking recourse for REIC-related fraud.

  3. I hope you didn’t pay a lot of money for this seminar. If you paid anything, you got ripped off. Almost all of the information in your email is wrong, at least in California. There’s no magic process that lets you fail to pay your mortgage and still keep your house, at least not in California.

    These FBs are getting fleeced coming and going by the REIC. 2008 redux. First the greed-fueled rush into a housing bubble, based on realtor and REIC cheerleading, then FBs flocking to scam artists promising an angle that allows them to keep living in “their” shacks while shirking their financial obligations. Looks like a hard rain is getting ready to fall on the lemmings, once again.

  4. She also told Business Insider that since there is so much inventory, when a property gets an offer, sellers have to act fast or the buyer will move on to another option.”

    I’m puzzled as to how all this inventory build-up seems to be flying under Diana Olick’s radar.

    1. Is it advisable for sellers to write prospective buyers a letter telling them how much they would love to have them become the proud new owners?

      1. Zildo recommends this. I see more listings with the “what you’ll love about my shack” included with recent listings. Last written lowball offer i made, the sellers agent recommended i include a letter and bio, i happily declined and said there client can either accept what im offering or ride the market down. Seller supposedly took another offer and 3 months later it fell through. When this shack comes back on ill be sure to submit an even lower offer.

          1. Good idea but i think right now i can choose one or the other. Perhaps i should start there though and reply with the lowball offer afterwards 😉

  5. Denver, CO Housing Prices Crater 20% YOY As Underwater Sellers Bale Out Of A Tanking Market

    https://www.zillow.com/denver-co-80218/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist explained, “I can ask $50k for my 10 year old Chevy truck but where is the buyer at that price? So it is with all depreciating assets like houses and cars.”

  6. ‘An Essex-based precision engineer is set to collapse into administration tomorrow after a cash crunch it claims was sparked by a Chinese investor stealing its intellectual property and reneging on an £8m deal. Smiths (Harlow), which makes parts for Bombardier and Rolls-Royce, failed in a last-ditch attempt to find a rescuer. ‘

    ‘Smiths’ bosses and private equity backer Agathos struck a deal with China’s Future Aerospace in October 2017, but Future has since failed to pay the full price, citing trouble getting approval from Beijing.’

    “Chinese business is a no-trust environment,” said a source. “Most Chinese businessmen are extraordinarily risk-averse and suspicious because they cheat each other all the time. Unfortunately for Smiths (Harlow), this is an example of bad faith.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stricken-engineer-smiths-harlow-blames-china-zskqsxcz6

    1. Opinion
      Shirley Ze Yu
      Forget the trade war. Beijing’s worst nightmare is a property market collapse, Japan-style
      China’s biggest economic risk in 2020 comes from its efforts to deflate the real estate bubble, which is closer to collapse than any point since 2003. Failure to find a soft landing may spell the end of China’s economic dream
      Published: 12:00pm, 22 Nov, 2019
      Updated: 12:04pm, 22 Nov, 2019

      “The only force that can defeat China is from within. No exterior force can.” On October 2 this year, the Communist Party’s leading journal of political theory, Qiushi, published in full a 2018 speech
      by President Xi Jinping, highlighting in stark language China’s coming challenges as the People’s Republic enters its 71st year. Indeed, in 2020, China’s primary economic risk is most likely to come not from the trade war, but from its inflated property market.
      “Black swans” and “grey rhinos”
      dominated China’s financial lexicon this year. Few in the population know what they are but most know what they mean. They mean fear.

      China’s property market is the grey rhino, overfed on massive liquidity steroids. One injection was the massive stimulus
      introduced in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. Another injection was from the six consecutive interest rate cuts in the 12 months to November 2015. Awash in liquidity, Chinese stock markets took off too, but by late 2015, the bubble had burst and the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index tumbled about 50 per cent from its 2015 peak. Real estate, however, partied on.

      1. This “Chinese liquidity” washed up on the shores of the US then spread to almost every single market, buying up real estate like never before seen.

      2. Although my recollection of world history is tainted by too many dark beers I’m guessing that the Chinese probably don’t care to be the butt of Japanese jokes.

    2. “Chinese business is a no-trust environment,” said a source. “Most Chinese businessmen are extraordinarily risk-averse and suspicious because they cheat each other all the time. Unfortunately for Smiths (Harlow), this is an example of bad faith.”

      Sounds like an ideal place to offshore your manufacturing base and supply chains.

        1. I’m noticing more and more organic foods with China as the source. It’s disgusting. The other day I bought pumpkin seeds and noticed it on the label. I think I’m going to throw the whole bag away.

    3. “Chinese business is a no-trust environment,” said a source. “Most Chinese businessmen are extraordinarily risk-averse and suspicious because they cheat each other all the time.

      The Chinese government cracked down on the one thing which could have helped that situation. The rising numbers of people who had faith. Of course that is contrary to true Marxism. People underestimate how much it helps promote prosperity in a country to have honest citizens. When I was growing up raising money by selling seeds was very common for children. Unfortunately, those companies went out of business because people grew less honest in the US and thus did not return product and money to the companies. This loss of honesty has been a mirror image of the people who believe in God in this country. Faith used to give the US a competitive advantage in business.

      1. I have given considerable thought to your point. An example is businesses that that are organized and run by returned Mormon missionaries. The bond of trust within these organizations is a powerful force that gives them internal and external competitive advantages: The managers don’t need to worry as much about internal malfeasance, and the clientele can rely on getting the service or prodct they were promised.

        China could benefit from welcoming Mormon missionaries in to establish church communities, but that might threaten Xi’s cult of personality.

      2. My “hobby” career is screenwriting. I sold a feature to an American company with close ties to China a few years back. It opened my eyes to how bizarre, nebulous, inscrutable, and illegal much of their normative business practices might be. The fellow who backed the project apparently had to don disguises when going out in public in China, and eventually absconded to Japan. So bizarre. A clerk at the writer’s guild called me when the deal was being finalized and said there were so many irregularities about the contract (including the offshore company created to funnel funds) that he was unsure what to do. They did pay, but I certainly get the sense the entire operation was some opaque money-laundering scheme.

        1. ‘My “hobby” career is screenwriting.’

          That’s very cool. Thanks for sharing your story.

          1. Professor, I’m just happy I don’t depend on it any more to pay my bills. China aside, it’s a crazy business.

        2. “It opened my eyes to how bizarre, nebulous, inscrutable, and illegal much of their normative business practices might be.”

          What ever happened to, “We make money the old-fashioned way. We earn it?”

    1. Only the present president should have to comply with service of process. If she was President she would not have to comply and it certainly would not be obstruction even if it was court ordered. However, even if Trump was just doing what all presidents do and protect executive privilege until a court orders production, it is obstruction because there is a different standard when you are a globalist. You just get to make the rules up as you go along.

  7. Municipal administrations are coming under increasing public pressure to make the rich “pay their share” when it comes to property taxes. If luxury mansions and skyboxes start getting taxed at a higher rate, that’s going to take the shine off the apple for Wall Street grifters looking to park their Yellen Bux in high-end real estate. “Soak the rich” sentiments are going to gain momentum as corporate Democrat incumbents in bed with the FIRE sector get voted out by AOC clones upset with unaffordable rents and housing costs.

    https://nypost.com/2020/01/30/the-winners-and-losers-of-nycs-proposed-property-tax-plan/

    City officials are proposing a massive overhaul of the property tax system that would result in changes for 90% of homeowners — with people like Mayor Bill de Blasio, who owns properties in Brooklyn’s brownstone-laden Park Slope, facing significant increases while many in the Bronx, Queens and Staten Island would enjoy tax cuts.

    “There are going to be winners and losers,” said Marc Shaw, chair of a commission that released the preliminary report on property tax reform Thursday after nearly two years of deliberations.

    The Advisory Commission on Property Tax Reform that was created following a still-pending lawsuit by plaintiffs who claim the current system is unfair — as the owner of a $9 million Carrol Gardens, Brooklyn building pays the same $4,300 in annual taxes as the owner of a $500,000 Elmhurst, Queens, split-level home.

    1. The record level of consumer debt has not masked the growing wealth gap between the haves and have nots, it’s only served to bridge the gap between incomes and the cost of living, and make people even more angry and unhappy. When you owe people money, no matter what for, misery is the result.

  8. “Tech billionaire Manuel Medina has already moved to Miami and out of his lavish Coral Gables mansion he paid $7 million for in 2013, but he hasn’t had luck finding a buyer. So, on February 14, Medina will auction off his waterside mansion in one of Florida’s most exclusive gated communities, without a reserve price — meaning there is no minimum bidding price. Medina first tried to sell his Coral Gables home in March 2018 for $17.9 million. Two years later, without a buyer, Medina decided to auction off the house.”

    “A property at 41 Arvida Parkway, near Medina’s mansion, recently sold at auction this spring for only $25.5 million — less than half its $68 million listing price, according to reports.”

    I don’t know what to make of reports on the outlandish wishing prices that tech billionaires ask which price out all buyers forever, without contextual information about the cost of building the place or the sales price history.

    I do note that even at half off his former list price of $17.9 million, Medina’s home would sell for more than he paid for it.

    1. Who would want to buy waterside property? It will soon be submerged by rising sea levels!

      /sarc

  9. As we kick off the 2020 selling season this SuperBowl Sunday, I thought it’d be a good time to remind (or introduce) folks of the JoshuaTree browser extension for reading this blog. It provides a handful of features to make it easier to keep up with the comment threads:

    * Tells you how many new/unread comments exist
    * Color-codes new comments to make them easy to find
    * Provides an ignore list to auto-collapse/ignore comments from posters you specify
    * Adds text formatting options to the comment box, to make it easier to quote posts, add links, etc.

    Firefox version
    Chrome version

    The extension is free, but if you use/like it, please donate to Ben to keep this blog up and running so it can provide value for years to come!

    (Pro-tip: Select text for a comment you want to reply to before clicking the “reply” link, and the extension will auto-quote it for you, placing it in italics at the top of your reply)

      1. Nothing beats getting blasted in the face with antiseptic spray upon deplaning by aliens wearing green and yellow space suits.

        1. Just took advantage of the once a year delight of shopping during the Superbowl. So few people there and yet an Asian guy waits to cough when I am passing him. He didn’t look too hot, either. Not worried, as I still hope to go out when hit by a bus.

    1. From the Al Jazeera article posted by Ben:
      “China’s acting ambassador to Israel has apologised for comparing the closure of several national borders to Chinese citizens to the turning away of Jewish refugees during the Holocaust.”

      You can’t make this stuff up!

  10. “ I do note that even at half off his former list price of $17.9 million, Medina’s home would sell for more than he paid for it.”

    Lets hope that doesn’t happen. Assuming its a true no reserve auction, it would be warming to see it go for much less, perhaps 1/2 of what mr tech douche paid 😉

        1. The nice thing about being a tech billionaire is that you can use a no-reserve auction that screws up the comps with minimal impact on your personal wealth portfolio.

      1. It’s going to be a seismic event if Bernie wins the Iowa primary tomorrow despite the corrupt DNC’s attempts to rig the game against him. Young people in our oligarch-looted economy have absolutely no reason to support globalism or globalist stooges, i.e. Establishment Democrats. Any decisive vote against the crony capitalist status quo exemplified by Biden or so-faux “progressive” Fauxahontus is going to shake the globalist elites to their luciferian cores, and will almost certainly cause a several hundred point drop in the Fed’s Ponzi markets as the Fed’s “No Billionaire Left Behind” monetary policies might face their first serious check.

    1. Why would anyone who love “socialism” vote for a man who is a paragon of crony-capitalism?

      1. I reject the crony capitalism attack but to answer the question many Bernie voters are just blue collar workers sick of being shafted and are not communists or socialists. Many last time voted for Trump due to the nomination being stolen from Bernie, it was pay back and many more are going to stick it to the DNC this time if the nomination is stolen. Trump has made it even easier this time since blue collar wages are on the rise under him so he does have a proven track record.

        1. Many last time voted for Trump due to the nomination being stolen from Bernie, it was pay back and many more are going to stick it to the DNC this time if the nomination is stolen.

          It would seem to me that getting behind Bernie is their only hope. And someone behind the curtain in the DNC apparently would rather have Trump than Bernie. So at this point I don’t see how Trump loses unless a ton of people lose their jobs in the next 9 months.

          1. There’s no recession in sight, so I don’t think tons of people losing their jobs is a plausible scenario. Trump is just as inevitable this election as Hillary was in 2016.

          2. Yeah, I dont get the dem leaders hate for Bern. Isnt his dream their utopia? Apparently not – more than anything they want cronyism IMO. A true communist party generally doesnt poll much more than 10-15% in western elections though.
            Picking bloomberg or having hillary associated with anyone will guarantee Trump by landslide. Whats funny is the cognitive dissonance on the left – they talked up in 2016 how she was the greatest candidate ever and that she would win by landslide but a week later many said – of course she lost, she was a horrible candidate. Bernie would have beaten Trump handily! Must be wild living in such a fantasy world. I suppose it could be worse – you could hang your hat on Biden or Bloomberg 🙂

          3. Bernie would have beaten Trump handily!

            I’m not so sure about that. I think DJT sits back and watches as the Democrats’ circular firing-squad narrows down his opponent before he uses whatever ammunition he has against that opponent, thus preserving his ammunition for the other candidates.

          4. Agreed. Having watched Trump mow down the internal GOP opposition in 2016, I wouldn’t bet that any candidate the Democrats can agree on would beat him.

          5. she was a horrible candidate. Bernie would have

            I think Jasper meant that was the new line the Delusionati were using right after the last election.

          6. I think Jasper meant

            I see that now. Putting it in quotations would have helped but been a Schiffty move.

          7. I wouldn’t bet that any candidate the Democrats can agree on would beat him.

            I agree…they seem unable to agree on much of anything except who they hate.

        2. Bernie voters are just blue collar workers sick of being shafted and are not communists or socialists.

          They’re gonna love the 20%+ VAT plus higher income taxes for everyone to pay for gibs for illegals. And when then try to use their “free” healthcare, they just gonna be thrilled with the treatment rejections and year long waiting lists.

          Here is a great example of what awaits:

          https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/diana-le-trasplantaron-un-rinon-y-ahora-peligra-por-desabasto-de-medicamento

          In a nutshell, the child had a kidney transplant, but the Mexican National Health System (IMSS) doen’t have the meds she needs to keep her body from rejecting the transplant. And her mother can’t afford it at a private pharmacy.

          1. Keep in mind that the “free” healthcare isn’t free, you will be taxed, heavily, for it.

            Of course. But I’m not sure the system as we have it could get any less affordable or worse. It’s just a disaster of greed and fraud.

          2. I spent 11 months getting Medi-Cal for my son only to find out that it is insufficient for primary insurance and pretty much useless for secondary insurance. Reimbursements frequently don’t cover doctors’ costs so they don’t accept it; and, billing secondary insurance creates more overhead and cashflow problems. The only scenario I foresee it being of any use is if my son is admitted to Rady Children’s Hospital. There’s also the issue that Medi-Cal won’t cover speech therapy because it assumes that the school district is providing adequate services, which it isn’t.

      1. if a fully surgically altered trans woman wins a sport, say a shotput by 1/4 inch i could be ok with that, since records are broken by fractions of an inch or seconds… but if you win by say 6 inches then you have to go back to the mens division and compete there

        1. Sorry, much too complicated and subjective. If it ever had balls, it cannot compete as a women works for me.

          1. Chromosome tests work for me. But the lunatic crowd will never agree, so we can look forward for men competing as women in Tokyo this summer, while the people on the TV broadcasts call them “she” and “her” with a straight face, lest their lucrative TV careers be “canceled”.

          2. Dumb question of the day:

            Will men who identify as women be permitted to compete in women’s sports without going through the elective reconstructive surgery and hormonal therapy?

          3. Given the women’s soccer team demands for equal pay plus ever-increasing gender fluidity, it seems like we may be converging to a multigender playing field with no separate categories for women’s and men’s sports.

          4. “The alternative approach is biologically unfair to women competitors.”

            Women run marathons, why can’t they play 5 sets (4+ hours) of tennis in a Major?

            Equal play = equal pay $$$$$$$

            (…Run Hwy, RUN!)

          5. Will men who identify as women be permitted to compete in women’s sports without going through the elective reconstructive surgery and hormonal therapy?Professor Bear

            My understanding is that in the Olympics no surgery is required, just a testosterone level below a certain threshold, which I understand can be temporarily achieved.

          6. The policy might not last, as it seems crazy and arbitrary.

            In Clown World it’s considered very sane and reasonable. And notice how anyone of says it isn’t gets cancelled.

          7. if you look at my link the trans woman runner is way out in front of all the others….that would never be allowed

          1. You remind me of a funny episode early in the cultural wars over gender identity. My three-year-old niece was visiting us (she’s forty now). Barbara Walters was interviewing a man who had undergone elective surgery and hormonal therapy to give him female parts.

            I asked my niece, who was too young to understand the dialogue or the cultural context, if the dudette was a man or a woman. Her answer: “It’s a man.”

            Mother Nature is hard to fool.

          2. I do make an exception for those born with XXY chromosomes – that’s like getting bad firmware from the factory.

    1. Streetwise
      What the Stock Market May Be Missing About the Coronavirus
      So far the impact on U.S. assets has been muted, but there are reasons to fear that investors are being complacent
      Challenges for travel and leisure stocks, slower economic growth and a weaker Chinese yuan are among the new market implications investors are dealing with as the new coronavirus spreads rapidly.
      Photo: Bloomberg/Qilai Shen
      By James Mackintosh
      Feb. 2, 2020 8:00 am ET

      It took investors a few days, but they think they have the effect of the new coronavirus from China worked out. The broad thrust: Suppliers to China, and travel and holiday stocks, will suffer, but nasty effects for the market as a whole will be offset by central banks. The virus will be controlled enough that it won’t cause a recession in the West.

      1. When China shuts down steel mills and aluminum plants which is happening and the steel and aluminum is produced instead in the US, how does that hurt the world economy and how does that hurt the US in particular? Wilbur Ross may have been crass and inappropriate but he was not wrong.

          1. A lot of steel and aluminum plants are operating well below design capacity so I would quite a bit and quickly but I do not have firm data at my finger tips.

          2. To further your point, will the coronavirus crisis end before the US can ramp up production to exploit the supply vacuum?

          3. Anecdotal evidence #28: Global $ynchronized $lowing is a $ocial Media digital myth.

            It’$ a good thing that all 189 trading nation$ love to buy expen$ively U$ Dollar priced commoditie$ + tariff$, & also have to deal with dome$tic competitor$ due to a huge $hortage of $upplies!

      2. Bugs: “eh, you could bee on to $omething Doc!”

        Wuhan coronavirus wiping out more stock portfolios than people
        written by Terry Ponick |Jan 31, 2020,

        WASHINGTON – It’s bad enough that the notorious Wuhan coronavirus has caused an increasing number of deaths as it spreads across the globe with alarming ease. But now it’s infecting stock funds and investors alike as it drains January’s once handsome profits away. This is a virus that could end up wiping out more stock portfolios than people.

        – Headline image: Wile E. Coyote’s portfolio is doing almost as bad as everyone else’s as coronavirus panic takes hold.
        (Warner Bros. classic cartoon image, reimagined for satirical purposes. Fair use.)

        https://gfycat.com/obedienttepidflea-roadrunner-best-of-cartoon-english

    2. Chinese reporting, it is very similar to CNN reporting and CNN polls see Iowa. We have no idea how long the Chinese person who died outside of China had the virus.

      1. Death rate in Japan 0% and it has been around long enough for someone to be cured, from the coronavirus website which I have been citing today:

        Japan)
        Confirmed: 20 Recovered: 1

          1. At the rate we are moving the sample size may never be large enough to meet your criteria. We had many Ebola outbreaks which were not much larger than 177 and estimates were made.

          2. Japan’s 20 cases is the largest number outside of China which shows just how contained the spread is right now. It is nothing like the measles outbreaks we had in this country the last few years where you went from a handful of cases to hundreds within days.

          3. “At the rate we are moving the sample size may never be large enough to meet your criteria.”

            I don’t have sample size criteria. But the precision of estimates based on a sample size of 1 aren’t going to be of much use.

          4. “20 cases is the largest number outside of China which shows just how contained the spread is right now.”

            Apparently the disease started months ago in China, and has just recently arrived in many other locations around the globe, with new countries announced daily. Trying to compare the size of China’s problem with that in other countries where the disease recently arrived is like comparing an oak tree to an acorn.

          5. Global health
            Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say
            Rapidly rising caseloads alarm researchers, who fear the virus may make its way across the globe. But scientists cannot yet predict how many deaths may result.

            A man on a nearly deserted street in Beijing. Experts fear a coronavirus pandemic, but its severity is uncertain.
            Credit…Nicolas Asfouri/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
            By Donald G. McNeil Jr.
            Feb. 2, 2020, 2:35 p.m. ET

            The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.

            The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents — may well have global consequences, despite the extraordinary travel restrictions and quarantines now imposed by China and other countries, including the United States.

            Scientists do not yet know how lethal the new coronavirus is, however, so there is uncertainty about how much damage a pandemic might cause. But there is growing consensus that the pathogen is readily transmitted between humans.

    3. From another website: to talk about 15,000 cases worldwide is misleading albeit technically accurate. There has been 177 cases outside of China leading to exactly one death. Keep in mind that was a Chinese man from the epicenter. More and more sites are suggesting that the virus has been in China for many months. This is entirely consistent with the numbers and outside of Hubei, there are both a low number of cases and a very low death rate. Only if you believe the Chinese government in Hubei is this a fast spreading, very lethal virus.

      I never took the word of the Chinese government for its GDP, I always assumed that the numbers were inflated by at least 1 to 1.5 percent and then looked at numbers which are hard to fake like trade numbers with other nations. Since Chinese exports had to be someone’s imports, I would look at the claimed imports to ensure that the numbers were in the ballpark. Also, looked at the imports of commodities to see how much the Chinese were lying. Finally, I looked at CIA estimates. After everything was said and done China was growing quickly albeit with a lot of debt. Unlike the economic figures, I see no outside numbers which confirm the Chinese claims, even the spread and death rate in other parts of China do not confirm its official story. They do just the opposite, they seem to be more in line with the numbers be reported outside of China.

      https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

      1. “Only if you believe the Chinese government in Hubei is this a fast spreading, very lethal virus.”

        It seems like you are assuming the outlier is the case being misreported. But aren’t there fairly strong incentives for underreporting the numbers of cases, such as a desire among local politicians to not get blamed for the burgeoning epidemic that took hold on their watches and to avoid starting a panic?

        Have you considered the possibility that the outlier is the exceptional case which is reporting truthfully?

        1. All the Democracies are lying and China is telling the truth, is that really your argument? The Democrats cod h

          1. Phone lock up before I could complete but never mind, it is an argument that needs no more of a response.

          2. The whisper number is that there are or have been 100,000 cases in the hot spot. Of course, that is over months not weeks. I think we added another case today in the US from the hot spot. I think that is eight or nine. Bill Clinton probably has more STDs and is more of a risk of spreading them.

          1. I could say the same about yours. However, it is really your insistence on relying on clearly inaccurate reports from the Chinese authorities which is leading you astray. While small samples may lead to a larger range of estimates, clearly erroneous information plugged into any formula will result in inaccurate results. It only takes a sample of a few thousand people in the entire country to make a very accurate political poll. Even sampling a few hundred will get you in the ballpark. However, purposely oversample any one group and the poll is completely useless. Of course, there are differences between political polls and projections based on observed patients. However, the saying of garbage in, garbage out is true for both. You just refuse to admit that the Hubei numbers are based on months of the disease spreading and only the most serious cases being reported and the authorities not even bothering or able to test the mild cases. Article after article from sources outside China, are calculating a 2% death rate and saying it might even go lower. A week ago they were saying 2 to 4% so they are seeing what I am seeing. You seem blinded by Chinese deception.

          2. “I could say the same about yours.”

            Of course you can, but I would rather you explain why you rejected or ignored my probability-based explanation than engage in tit-for-tat denigration.

            “However, it is really your insistence on relying on clearly inaccurate reports from the Chinese authorities which is leading you astray.”

            It’s the only data I have on hand. What data are you analyzing?

          3. reports from the Chinese authorities which is leading you astray

            Come on Dan. We were telling you that here for a decade.

            Now it seems to be a competition of who can say the most without actually knowing anything!

          4. Aq, know$ jack.$hasta!

            (eye could repeat myself, but then, like aq, eye’d bee repeating myself, sounds like some kind of $elf.abu$e … )

          1. What data are you using to get your death rate? If you are throwing the total number of cases in the denominator, then you are implicitly assuming that anyone not already recovered is going to recover, resulting in a downward-biased estimate.

          1. Study up on the binomial and Poisson probability distributions and get back to us…

            Now you’re giving me college flashbacks!

            Human memory is a crazy thing. It’s amazing you can remember “I used to know that”, but not recall the fact. Or recall the actual act/episode of learning, but not the learned fact.

          2. “Now you’re giving me college flashbacks!”

            Hehe, statistics are based on observations that already happened whereas probability deals with observation frequencies likely to happen. Back in college I distinctly recall reading a really “wordy” paragraph from a chapter regarding probability, and I set the text book down (hoe-lee-schitt!), whistled for my dog, and we went out for a nice long walk.

        1. China had 100,000 ill with the disease around Hubei five days ago. It is just trying to create a plausible story on how it will reach that number. However, it is not even using the say exponential growth numbers in other parts of China. You would think with as much experience lying as the Chinese government has, it would do a better job. Maybe it is because it does not want to shutdown Shanghai too:
          https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/chinese-communism-makes-coronavirus-more-dangerous-than-it-should-be/

  11. ‘The 52% of voters who chose Leave in the 2016 referendum are getting what they said they wanted, and that means Brexit already is working in the way that matters most.’

    ‘This is what Brexit was always going to be about. Not the wisdom or otherwise of leaving the EU, but whether democracy in the West still means voters are entitled to choose policy, even when—especially when—their self-proclaimed betters dislike the choice. Brexit has proved a profound shock to Europe’s system because it’s so unusual these days for European voters to get their way on anything important.’

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-may-make-europe-safe-for-democracy-11580428655?mod=opinion_major_pos4

    1. It was a breathtaking spectacle watching the globalist Davos crowd, along with their MSM minions and Deep State operatives do everything possible to derail Brexit. For a while it looked like they might succeed.

  12. https://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/house-market-Seattle-2020-4-experts-real-estate-15002454.php

    ‘Stephanie Maulding, senior loan officer, Guild Mortgage Company: Maulding, similarly, said they are predicting for more buyers than in the past couple of years. She said a couple of years ago, there was a “housing frenzy,” where buyers were making multiple offers on the same property and it was driving the price up.’

    “I’m not expecting it to happen in a major way,” she said, noting her response is based on what she’s seeing clients deal with. “I’m not seeing a crash, but if the employment situation in Seattle changes, that would impact housing for sure.”

    ‘She does see housing prices continue to go up, as it always goes. She said if you look over the history of home ownership, there are always some blips up and down, but prices always do rise.’

    1. What would be a real Black Swan event is if the China people rebel against China Communist Government and China morphs into a democracy.

      What is weird is that at the same time you have Commie Countries failing you have the USA embracing Commie theory as in Sanders and Warren.

      I’m not in favor of bigger government in any way, shape or form. Our Government already needs correction because it strayed to far from the Founders of USA intent.

  13. Zero Hedge headline:

    China Bans Selling, Plans Massive Liquidity Injection To Prevent Market Crash

    Bravo, ChiCom leadership. If anyone still doubted how rigged and fraudulent your Ponzi markets are, this is the frosting on the cake. Who is going to buy stocks, especially at these nosebleed levels, when the CCP has made it impossible to determine true price discovery?

    1. This way they can claim that markets are open, when in fact they are still closed. Government controlled banks will buy stocks, which will officially keeps share prices up.

      But what happens as quarantines spread and workers are told to stay home week after week? I saw a video of some Irish dude in Wuhan going shopping at Carrefour. The store seemed reasonably stocked, but people actually have to work to make that happen, keeping supply chains active, from the farm to the store shelves. Are the ChiComs importing processed food?

      1. “Government controlled bank$ will buy $tocks, which will officially keeps $hare prices up.”

        dtRumpsis, Munchin, Kudlow, Navarro, $heldon, Ha$$ett, & Ro$$ & Co., just last month declared that:

        “China, are knot$ a currency manipulator$ Nation!”

      2. Government controlled banks will buy stocks, which will officially keeps share prices up.

        From who? I thought they said selling wasn’t allowed? Which is of course confusing because how can a market be open if nobody can sell…

    2. Someone will buy to surf the liquidity tsunami which will likely be used to prop up share prices in the face of a real world crisis. The trick for bovine specuvestors, as always, will be to get off the wave before it breaks.

    3. Hahaha. All that’s going to do is create a dam of people who want to get out. Once they finally open selling, it’s only going to be worse.

    4. Epic fail.

      The Financial Times
      Asia-Pacific equities
      China stocks have worst opening since 2007 on coronavirus
      Market closes down 7.9% after extended lunar new year break despite PBoC liquidity boost
      updated 13 minutes ago

  14. Which seems more worrisome: A closely-monitered disease outbreak that has sickened eight people and killed none, or an annually recurring viral disease outbreak that has infected 19 million people and killed 10 thousand within the past six months?

    People’s risk assessment skills are generally poor (and I confess to being a person).

    1. ‘No reason for Americans to panic’: White House seeks to calm fears over coronavirus
      By Chandelis Duster, CNN
      Updated 3:26 PM ET, Sun February 2, 2020
      Trump announces coronavirus task force as strain spreads

      Washington (CNN)
      National security adviser Robert O’Brien on Sunday said at this time “there’s no reason for Americans to panic” about the Wuhan coronavirus, saying the threat is “low risk” in the United States.

      “Right now, there’s no reason for Americans to panic. This is something that is a low risk, we think, in the US,” he said during an interview on CBS’ “Face The Nation,” adding that the virus is a “top priority” for President Donald Trump and the administration is “taking steps to keep Americans safe.”

      There are more than 14,300 confirmed cases of the virus globally, and 305 people have died since the outbreak in December. All but one of the deaths have been in mainland China. Eight cases have been confirmed in the US.

      In comparison, the 2019-2020 flu season is projected to be one of the worst in a decade, according to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The flu virus has infected 19 million Americans across the country and killed at least 10,000 people this season alone.

      1. So governments and corporations are over-reacting? Actions aren’t jiving with the reported numbers.

        1. Actions aren’t jiving with the reported numbers.

          Only the reported numbers outside of China are accurate. The numbers and the increases in China are manufactured out of whole cloth. We are looking in a mirror and China is telling us it is a windshield.

          1. “We” … are looking in a mirror and China is telling us it is a windshield”

            $hut.up, you know jack.$Shasta aq!

        2. “… Actions aren’t jiving with the reported numbers.”

          In America, it’$ free to place yer bet$ on what YOU believe, markets open $oon! … Bee free!

      2. I was speaking with the pharmacist today and he said that the flu is a much bigger issue than the Coronavirus , he is not worried about the virus.

        1. It really depends on where you are. The Pacific coast (notably SD, OC, LA, SF and Seattle), Chicago, NYC and Boston are probably more at risk than other areas of the US.

        2. ” … he is not worried about the virus. ”

          Too bad he did knot reveal iffin’ he is a $tawk.owner$!

        3. When officials in China completely shutdown cities with millions of people in them by blocking roads and exits, I’d say that’s telling. No, it’s not big deal in the U.S….yet.

  15. Busine$$
    OPEC+ Weighs Emergency Response as Oil Slumps on Virus Panic

    Bloomberg |By Grant Smith, Olga Tanas, and Javier Blas
    January 31, 2020, Updated on February 1, 2020

    “China is the oil market’s primary source of demand growth and measures taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus — including a lock-down in one of the country’s major cities and the unprecedented extension of the Lunar New Year holiday — could wipe out a big chunk of that additional consumption.”

    Russia, which has become the most important producer in the coalition alongside the kingdom, has typically taken some persuading to sign up for additional cuts and has a patchy record of implementing its pledges.

    The government in Moscow requires lower crude prices than the Saudis and most other OPEC countries to cover its spending plans. Still, the alliance with OPEC has served the Kremlin’s political and economic interests, with Russia consistently one of the biggest financial beneficiaries of the deal.

    “Nothing concentrates a producer’s mind more than the prospect of a crude oil price bust,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group in Bethesda, Maryland, and former White House oil official under President George W. Bush.

    The risks of inaction could be severe. The plunge in oil prices has been mitigated by the halt of exports from OPEC member Libya, where a militia leader, Khalifa Haftar, has blockaded oil ports while haggling over a peace settlement with the national government.

    A resolution there could restart the flow of about 1 million barrels a day onto world markets, sending prices even lower.

  16. No worrie$, decoupling China from the Global economy will have zero effect$ for the U$A.

    China to inject $173 billion into economy to cu$hion expected $tock $hock
    By Associated Press | Published: Feb 2, 2020

    Mainland market$ expected to plunge after reopening from long holiday

    A large share of the 1.2 trillion yuan to be injected into markets will go to meeting payment obligations falling due on Monday, analysts said.

    But it’s still a ma$$ive amount of funding.

    “This is well beyond the band-aid fix, and if this deluge doesn’t hold risk-off at bay, we are in for a colo$$al beat down,” Stephen Innes of AxiCorp. said in a client note Sunday.

    He noted that any major drop shortly after the markets reopen would be a “catch up.”

    “It’s not the earthquake at the open but rather the aftershocks that will drive risk sentiment on Monday,”

    BEIJING — China’s central bank announced plans Sunday to inject 1.2 trillion yuan ($173 billion) into the economy to cushion the shock to financial markets from the outbreak of a new virus when trading resumes on Monday after a prolonged Lunar New Year holiday.

    The People’s Bank of China announced several measures over the weekend aimed at stabilizing the economy as the impact of the virus spreads with cancelled flights, stepped up quarantines and other controls.

    1. Plunge plunge protection measures didn’t seem to help much.

      Markets in mainland China plunge after layoff, but not as much as feared
      By Marketwatch
      Published: Feb 2, 2020 9:08 p.m. ET
      PBoC injects $173 billion to cushion against expected losses
      Reuters
      A man wearing a face mask rides a bicycle past the skyline of Shanghai’s financial district.

      Markets in mainland China plunged early Monday, on their first day of trading since an extended Lunar New Year holiday that coincided with the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak.

      Global markets have fallen in recent weeks and China had braced itself for steep losses, with the People’s Bank of China announcing Sunday it would inject about $173 billion into the economy to cushion the expected blow, along with other measures to stabilize the economy.

      The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP, -7.69%) initially plummeted nearly 9%, as did the smaller-cap Shenzhen Composite 399106, -7.94% , though both recovered slightly as trading went on. Mainland Chinese equity markets had been closed since Jan. 24.

    2. The Financial Times
      News
      Chinese stocks plunge as coronavirus fears grip market
      Benchmark index opens down 9% as traders return from extended lunar new year break
      A street cleaner wears a face mask in a deserted shopping street in Jiujiang, Jiangxi province, China, as the country is hit by an outbreak of the novel coronavirus, February 2, 2020. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
      © Reuters
      Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong an hour ago

      Chinese stocks tumbled as traders returned from an extended lunar new year holiday, despite the central bank’s promise to pump liquidity into the financial system to help cushion the blow of a deadly coronavirus outbreak.

      The CSI 300 index of major Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed equities dropped 9.1 per cent at the open on Monday with losses across the board.

      China reported 17,205 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus and 361 deaths as of the end of Sunday.

    1. Coronavirus
      Health Officials Confirm Second Case of Coronavirus in Bay Area
      This is the fourth case of coronavirus in California
      By Elizabeth Campos • Published 2 hours ago • Updated 1 min ago

      The Santa Clara Public Health Department said Sunday that a second case of coronavirus in the Bay Area and the ninth in the United States has been confirmed.

      Officials with the Health Department and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement that this second case is in an adult female.

      “This Santa Clara County case is not related to the first case but they both had recently traveled to Wuhan, China,” officials said. “She is a visitor to this county and arrived January 23 to visit family.”

    2. Latest numbers (from John Hopkins U GIS site):

      Confirmed cases 16,786
      Total Deaths 362
      Total Recovered 472

      The raw mortality rate is declining, but still much higher than 4%.

      And the daily reported numbers of new confirmed cases is increasing, as to be expected with the exponential growth phase of a disease outbreak.

      1. And the daily reported numbers of new confirmed cases is increasing, as to be expected with the exponential growth phase of a disease outbreak.

        Because the Chinese government wants to make it look like the hundred thousand cases it does have were created by exponential growth instead of by the fact that it hid this thing for a number of months.

          1. I know what I’m about to say is controversial: 2019-nCoV appears to be man-made and at best escaped or at worst was released into the nearby population. Before I was “red-pilled,” I believed/hoped that people wouldn’t engage in such evil and destruction. Sadly, I’m no longer that naive.

        1. “Sadly, I’m no longer that naive”

          2020 China Trade Agreement$ Pha$e1 Article v7.6 = “meaningle$$”

          You’re catching on!

  17. In “The Graduate” 1965 … “…Plastic$”
    In “aq’$ mind” 2020 … ” … Coal mine$”

  18. A 9% one day drop tis a mere flesh wound. By contrast, I believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 20% on Black Monday.

    China’s PBOC cuts reverse repo rates
    By MarketWatch
    Published: Feb 2, 2020 10:37 p.m. ET

    BEIJING–China’s central bank on Monday lowered the interest rates of reverse repurchase agreements while injecting a large amount of liquidity into the banking system in a bid to provide support to an economy suffering from the outbreak of a deadly coronavirus.

    The People’s Bank of China cut the seven- and 14-day reverse repo rates by 10 basis points to 2.4% and 2.55%, respectively. The PBOC also injected 1.2 trillion yuan ($173.0 billion) worth of liquidity via reverse repos into the financial system.

    The unexpected cut came after an extended Lunar New Year holiday amid the rapid spread of a deadly virus that emerged from central China. The outbreak has weighed on consumer sentiment, industrial production and other sectors of the economy. Chinese equities tumbled sharply Monday, the first day of trading after the extended holiday.

      1. New rule$, New tool$, open the liquidy pool$!

        Market$
        Chine$e $tocks $ink 8% in Worst Rout Since 2015 Bubble Bur$t

        Sofia Horta e Costa, Ken Wang and Amanda Wang
        February 2, 2020, 8:00 AM PS

        The China Securities Regulatory Commission also told some brokerages that their proprietary traders aren’t allowed to be net $ellers of equitie$ this week, according to people familiar with the matter. Brokerages on Monday were only allowed to $ell to meet redemption$ by investor$

        In addition, the CSRC suspended securities lending, one of the few $hort $elling tool$ available in China, from Monday until further notice, the people said.

  19. ‘About 560 miles away from Wuhan, the city of Wenzhou in Zhejiang Province, located on the country’s southeastern coast, has begun issued travel restrictions. The city, which has 8.29 million residents according to the latest official statistics, shut down its public transportation system on Feb. 1.’

    ‘The following day, the city government published two new regulations. The first rule requires that only one person within each family household can go outdoors to shop for basic necessities. In addition, that designated person can only go out once every two days.’

    “No other travel is allowed except to get medical treatment; do tasks related to disease control; and for people who work in important sectors related to people’s livelihood.”

    ‘On social media, family members of the quarantined patients said that conditions inside the facilities are poor, with many not receiving proper treatment. Chinese independent magazine Caijing also reported on Jan. 31 that coronavirus patients in Wuhan are having difficulty receiving treatment due to all hospitals being at capacity.’

    ‘The report quoted a doctor who has treated patients in a Wuhan hospital since Jan. 21: “Our hospital beds are fully occupied by patients, medical staff have to work day and night, and many of us have infected each other with the virus.”

    ‘He said there are 10 doctors and 20 nurses working in his department. By Jan. 29, seven of them were diagnosed with the novel coronavirus. Furthermore, 61 medical staff from the hospital were diagnosed by Jan. 27. The doctor said they lack human resources and medical supplies. Because of the limited hospital beds, most of the patients cannot be treated at the hospital.’

    ‘And although the medical staff believe the patients to be infected with the coronavirus, they cannot fully diagnose them. “Our hospital has 600 beds for coronavirus patients… [The city government] only allows each department to use diagnosis kits to detect three to five patients every day… In other words, most of our 600 patients can only be designated as possible cases,” the doctor explained.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/more-chinese-cities-under-quarantine-limiting-one-person-per-household-to-go-outdoors_3224809.html

  20. Wall Street pessimism is alive and well, even as the stock market always goes up.


    After slumping on Friday to end a horrid January for U.S. stocks, they were set to open higher on Monday as positivity returned despite the death toll from the virus rising.

    Over the longer term, in our call of the day, investment management company AQR said future returns would be “soberingly low” and investors would have to choose from an “unappetizing menu of low-yielding assets.”

    The company, which was co-founded by Cliff Asness, said it expected the real return of the traditional U.S. portfolio — 60% stocks to 40% bonds — over the next five to 10 years to be 2.4%. This is around half of the long-term average since 1900. AQR said it expected 4% returns for U.S. large equities, while estimates for all asset classes were lower than a year ago.

    The estimates do not warrant “aggressive tactical allocation” responses, the hedge fund manager’s company said, but it called for investors to reassess their objectives and expectations.

    “As of January 2020, these estimates are soberingly low. They suggest that over the next decade, many investors may struggle to meet return objectives anchored to a rosier past. Low expected cash returns are one clear culprit, dragging down expected total returns on all risky investments.”

    AQR’s capital markets assumptions study added: “Investment objectives may need to be reassessed, even if this necessitates higher contribution rates and lower expected payouts. And the case for diversifying away from traditional equity and term premia is arguably stronger than ever.”

    1. Unless I missed it, the gloomy outlook fails to weigh in on whether one might expect to come by fabulous wealth by borrowing boatloads of money and using it to purchase shacks.

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