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A Buyer’s Market Means There Is A Plentiful Supply And Not So Much Demand

A report from The Real Deal. “For New York’s condo market, recent developments in China may simply confirm what has been common knowledge for some time — the once-booming market for mainland Chinese buyers has long died down, amid tight capital controls and trade tensions. Asked if coronavirus had led to a noticeable decline in buyers from China, Sotheby’s International Realty broker Kevin Brown said, ‘No, because they weren’t here’ to begin with, due to geopolitical issues.”

The Wall Street Journal on New York. “New York City landlords widely predicted that the new state law, which makes it much harder for landlords to upgrade and convert rent-stabilized units to more profitable market-rate apartments, would dull interest in these properties. After the law was enacted in June, values on these apartment buildings in New York City fell by about 25% on average, brokers and investors say. Some property owners have fallen behind on their loan payments.”

“That has made many of these buildings cheap enough to lure back buyers who feel at these reduced prices they can turn a profit with cheap mortgages and stable cash flow. Rents are pretty good where they are now, they wager, and the high demand for housing makes buildings a safe long-term investment.”

The New Canaanite in Connecticut. “Home sales in New Canaan declined 24% year-over-year in January, according to new data. In addition to the overall decrease in single-family home sales, from 17 to 13, the median price dropped 13% in the period, from $1,355,000 to $1,175,000, according to data from the New Canaan Board of Realtors.”

The Sun Sentinel in Florida. “DJ Khaled recently lowered the price of his 6,697-square-foot Aventura home by $600,000, the second price drop since he put it on the market in December 2018. It’s now listed for $5,999,999. He purchased the three-story waterfront mansion, at 3914 Island Estates Drive, in December 2015 for $3.84 million. Khaled spent more than $2.5 million remodeling the five-bedroom, seven-bath Mediterranean estate.”

The Capital Journal on South Dakota. “In 2015, permits were issued for 23 new single family home constructions with a total estimated value of $5.7 million. That compares with only eight new homes in 2019 with a total value of about $2.7 million, Eric Booth, planning director for Hughes County told the Capital Journal. The average value of the homes went from $247,826 in 2015 to $337,500 in 2019, he said. There have been other issues involved.”

“‘I’ve had a realtor, who has been in real estate for a lot of years, tell me that the last year has been more of a buyers’ market than any time in (their) past history,’ County Commissioner Norm Weaver told the Capital Journal. A buyer’s market means there is a plentiful supply of homes on the market and not so much demand, which is not an encouragement to builders to build, he said. ‘If your house is worth $200,000 and you sell it for $178,000, you are not going to get your money to replace that home with a new one,’ Weaver said. ‘So you are just not selling it.'”

The Greater Baton Rouge Business Report in Louisiana. “While there may be a glut of million-dollar homes for sale in Baton Rouge, there’s not an oversupply of multimillion dollar homes in pristine, move-in condition, and there are enough buyers looking for those truly top-of-the-line properties to drive the prices up. Another reason is that there are more million-dollar properties spread throughout the market in developments that either didn’t exist in the past or would not have had homes with such steep asking prices.”

“While sales price data suggest the high-end segment of the market is as strong as ever, there are currently more than 90 homes for sale with price tags of $1 million or more. That’s a three-year supply of inventory, which, also, is unheard of in this market. ‘I think when you’re looking at that record inventory of $1 million homes, you’re looking at the good, the bad and the ugly,’ says Quita Cutrer, of Burns and Co., who sold several of the most expensive homes on the list last year. ‘You have to look at where houses are located and realize that if someone built a $2 million home in a $500,000 neighborhood it’s going to take longer to sell than if it were in Bocage.'”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “After declining in the final months of 2019, the number of new listings hitting the market surged 89.3% in January, according to a report Wednesday from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors. Buyers, starved after months of falling inventory, voraciously consumed the new supply. Sellers, missing in action for months, listed 4,853 homes and condos for sale in January, up from the paltry 2,564 they provided in December.”

“The surge in activity didn’t show up yet in closed sales, which were down 34.2% from December and up 0.8% from January of last year. But that’s primarily a timing issue. The number of pending sales or homes under contract surged 43% from December and is up 24.2% from January 2019. Sales completed in February should surge based on the contracts reached in January.”

“Demand was so strong that even with the big jump in listings, the inventory of homes and condos available for sale at the end of the month fell to 4,941, a 1.91% decline from December and 16% drop from January 2019.”

Fromm Curbed San Francisco in California. “Whatever happened to predictability? Despite its exterior being famous around the world, the so-called ‘Full House house’ at 1709 Broderick Street is, thus far, finding its latest sales bid a bust, as it returns to the market this week with another price cut. Originally listed for $6 million even in May, the four-bed, four-bath, 3,728-square-foot Victorian chiseled off a quarter million from its asking price in September, then briefly vanished from sales listings at the beginning of 2020. Now it’s back—and the asking price has dropped to just less than $5.5 million.”

From Bravo TV on California. “Prior to her divorce, Alexis Bellino lived in a stunning San Juan Capistrano, California mansion that looks like something straight out of Architectural Digest. The Real Housewives of Orange County alum’s property boasts 8,600 square feet of living spaces. The house was first listed about a year ago for $7.99 million, and received a $1.5 price cut last spring. As of 10 days ago, however, the price has changed again — drastically. Today the house is at auction, with bidding starting at $3.5 million… which is less than what Alexis paid for the house back in 2016!”

“What’s it mean for a house to be at auction? Typically it points to the homeowners not paying the balance they owed on the home, resulting in the lender (aka the bank) forcing the homeowners out for nonpayment and putting the home up for auction. The shocking part here is that the home hasn’t sold!”

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This Post Has 158 Comments

  1. ‘Sellers, missing in action for months, listed 4,853 homes and condos for sale in January, up from the paltry 2,564 they provided in December…Demand was so strong that even with the big jump in listings, the inventory of homes and condos available for sale at the end of the month fell to 4,941, a 1.91% decline from December and 16% drop from January 2019’

    I only posted this to show what liars these people are.

  2. ‘Home sales in New Canaan declined 24% year-over-year in January, according to new data. In addition to the overall decrease in single-family home sales, from 17 to 13, the median price dropped 13% in the period, from $1,355,000 to $1,175,000’

    Anyone remember when the city council there outlawed for-sale signs cuz there were too many?

  3. ‘After the law was enacted in June, values on these apartment buildings in New York City fell by about 25% on average’

    Is 25% a lot?

    ‘Some property owners have fallen behind on their loan payments. That has made many of these buildings cheap enough to lure back buyers who feel at these reduced prices they can turn a profit’

    As some poster said yesterday, “oh the doom and gloom!”

    I put this blog together because it results in me knowing what’s going on in RE. I don’t give a damn what people think. There are positive and negative things going on all the time. But in this example, speculators taking an ass-pounding is humorous, and lower, more sustainable rents are positive for the economy as well.

  4. ‘less than what Alexis paid for the house back in 2016! What’s it mean for a house to be at auction? Typically it points to the homeowners not paying the balance they owed on the home, resulting in the lender (aka the bank) forcing the homeowners out for nonpayment and putting the home up for auction.’

    ‘The shocking part here is that the home hasn’t sold!’

    Eat yer crowz Thornberg.

    1. “Today the house is at auction, with bidding starting at $3.5 million… which is less than what Alexis paid for the house back in 2016!”

      Is this a Dutch auction?

    2. Watch her on the show and hated that b*tch and her dumbass arrogant husband. Seem so fake and disingenuous

      1. Um…isn’t that all the Real Housewives? Horrible, soulless human beings with a galactic sense of entitlement. Love seeing their gaudy oversized mansions going under the auctioneer’s hammer, while bagging another rich husband to separate from his wealth is going to be an uphill battle as the bloom is definitely off the rose.

    3. Celebrity flippers. Real housewife buys a house in 2016, tries to sell in 2019. DJ Khaled buys in late 2015, tries to sell in late 2018. Oh, and tears the place up to do a $2.5 reno during that time frame. Did he even sleep ONE NIGHT there? And that’s just today’s post. This short-term ownership seems to be a hallmark for celebrity homes.

      Maybe there’s some excuse for pro athletes who switch teams all the time, but the rest of this crowd… can’t they just buy something and LIVE in it?

    4. This gold digger was on the Bravo show Belew Deck, celebrating her divorce and new boyfriend who she had her tongue down his throat the whole show. He aint laughin now, and Jimmy the ex husband is a unsuccessful business, who just took another huge lo$$.

      1. Can I ask the HBB fellas … just what woodwork do these bois crawl out of? There are so many worthy but lonely 38-year old women with cats and box wine looking for decent guys, and yet these dreck hoes seem to pick em up every other week. Is it really just blond hair dye, makeup, and thigh gap?

        1. Part of the problem is women are too picky, at least that’s what the consensus is. The urban dictionary says 80% of women are chasing the top 20% of men. The term “stay in your lane” comes to mind. Women (not all, of course) are greatly overvaluing themselves these days.

          2. “…The urban dictionary says 80% of women are chasing the top 20% of men….” (Here is Socal it’s more like 90/10)

            Maybe 60 years ago Mad Magazine ran a parody of the “Bonanza” TV show, which at the time was #1.

            One of the lines was “I’m choosing your paw (Ben Cartright) ’cause his wallet is the lumpiest ” Times have *not* changed one single bit.

            (BTW, Bonanza was one of the first prime time shows to be filmed in color and was credited with selling millions of color TV sets in the early 1960’s when most stations were still broadcasting Black and White and had not retrofitted to broadcast color content)

          3. So what makes a woman high value?

            Society would say “thigh gap,” etc., as you so eloquently put it. 🙂 For me, it’s probably a little different. I see “thigh gap,” fake cantaloupes and a million dollar smile as major high maintenance, and run. I like a more average looking woman who’s smart and frugal, but still likes to maintain her physique through regular exercise and a healthy lifestyle.

          4. To be fair, I think 80 percent of men are chasing the top 20 percent of woman but it is beauty and brains more than economics driving most men.

          6. A-Dan, I agree. So, men can dump good women to chase after the young hotties, shouting MGTOW-no-one-is-good-enough-for-me all the while. Meanwhile, those women are disparaged for being “too picky.” Quite the hypocrisy.

            To be fair, I could probably pick up a gold-digging man tomorrow (in the past I dated a couple of ’em). Bonus points if I offer a green card and a couple extra bedrooms to house their chain-migrated clan.

          7. So, men can dump good women to chase after the young hotties, shouting MGTOW-no-one-is-good-enough-for-me all the while.

            I don’t think you understand MGTOW. Those guys don’t date.

          8. A-Dan, I agree. So, men can dump good women to chase after the young hotties, shouting MGTOW-no-one-is-good-enough-for-me all the while. Meanwhile, those women are disparaged for being “too picky.” Quite the hypocrisy.

            To be fair, I could probably pick up a gold-digging man tomorrow (in the past I dated a couple of ’em). Bonus points if I offer a green card and a couple extra bedrooms to house their chain-migrated clan.

            Apologies, I didn’t realize the question was that personal.

            Honestly, a 38 year old woman doesn’t need to bother with guys hung up on being MGTOW or otherwise sour on women – they have their own issues to deal with.

            Dating at any age has always been hard – i.e. ‘kiss a lot of frogs trying to find a prince’. The introduction of online dating and now apps has simultaneously made it both much easier and much harder. Easier if you are perceived to have a notable advantage. Harder if you are perceived to have a disadvantaged (let me tell you about a single guy friend who is 5′ 4″). And maddening for people in the middle as the illusion of plenty has made things a lot more superficial.

          9. Dating at any age has always been hard

            A lot of my lady friends (and they are way past 38) had a series of trial relationships with men who very much misrepresented their situation, online and in person for a while. Their advice is don’t bother with anyone who isn’t known to someone you know, for starters.

          10. A lot of my lady friends (and they are way past 38) had a series of trial relationships with men who very much misrepresented their situation, online and in person for a while. Their advice is don’t bother with anyone who isn’t known to someone you know, for starters.

            That does seem to be common. I keep up with a few gals I went to high school with that are currently or until recently were single, and that mirrors some of their experiences.

            Also, when I was post-divorce single back in 08-09 and having a blast dating, I was very VERY honest and forthcoming in my online profiles, and more than one gal I went out with made a point to tell me that was unusual and compliment me on it. And that directly factored into why (the current) Mrs Spiffy was compelled to make the first move and contact me.

            Worth noting that Mrs Spiffy doesn’t come with thigh gaps or artificial enhancements, and she has wondered outloud from time to time as why I chose her when I had been dating other women with said features. I tell her the same thing every time (as it’s true) – I have a ‘type’ and she score 102 out 100 on that scale.

        2. Is it really just blond hair dye, makeup, and thigh gap?”

          I would say age after a certain age hair dye and makeup and thigh gap don’t matter. Old rich guys like younger women. Old poor guys well they would be better off with hobbies I guess.

          1. better off with hobbies

            At some point, what a woman is not may be a more important filter than any superficial glamorous attributes.

        3. it really just blond hair dye, makeup, and thigh gap?”

          I had a real interesting period of time being single back at the end of the last decade, after 18 years with my ex (16 married). When it came to dating, things were so very, very different than when I was in my teens/early 20s, and I think that applies to your question.

          #1 would be that the singles guys 35+ are mostly made up of guys who either are a) confirmed bachelors, b) low status men/losers, or c) have been through a divorce, spit out and chewed up. Contrast that with college age guys, the largest block of whom were looking for sweetheart to settle down and build a life and family with. I say were, because that’s how we were 30 years ago. Kids today are a bit different and they’re delaying settling down.

          #2 would be women’s expectations having gone up or at stayed elevated while their SMV/MMV has gone down – yes, I went there (redpill) as those concepts are pretty accurate and important.

          #3 Men and Women don’t want the same thing from a mate. Wanting looks/youth/beauty/fertility is hardwired into most men’s brains. Wanting Status/money/power/strength is hardwired in to most women’s brains. That doesn’t mean we’ll take different or less – a lot of people know they settled and have to come to grips with that.

          High value 42 year old men can get with women in their 20s, which creates problems for the 38 year old women (who didn’t mind it when they were the hotter 20-somethings).

          tl;dr – Supply. Demand. Everyone out to get the best deal they can.

          1. * disclaimer – exceptions apply. The terms “men” and “women” are used in the aggregate sense along with distribution curves. If itching persists, call your doctor.

          3. #1 would be that the singles guys 35+ are mostly made up of guys who either are a) confirmed bachelors, b) low status men/losers, or c) have been through a divorce, spit out and chewed up.

            This was my observation as well with good guys “recycled” from category (c).

          4. This was my observation as well with good guys “recycled” from category (c)..

            It’s basic demographics really, though it’s gotten harder to bring those up without getting labeled as ‘redpill’ ‘mra’ ‘mgtow’ etc these days.

            The majority of people go through a pairing-off and settling down phase as young adults as a setup for family formation. So when you get to middle age guys, a lot of of the ones who were interested in pairing off did, and still are out of circulation, skewing the makeup of the supply of single males remaining.

            My observation is that the supply of under-25 women considered ‘pretty good to high value’ that looking to settle down is less than the demand. Conversely, the supply of good+ value men over age 40 is lower than the demand. The overall pool of singles in those age groups is of course larger.

          5. I gave my husband the following interrogation on our second date since his relationship status was undisclosed: Are you married? Do you have a girlfriend? Is there anyone who would consider herself your girlfriend? He could have easily lied. He didn’t. And, he still wanted to see me.

          7. “monkey-branching”

            Had to look that one up! Never noticed it among my female friends but certainly did among my male colleagues hence the line of questioning.

  6. It’s sure good to have the coronavirus scare behind us. The stock market can only go up from here.

    1. Oh wait!

      The Financial Times
      The Coronavirus Outbreak
      Coronavirus
      China’s property market stalls amid coronavirus outbreak
      Crisis threatens to curtail country’s first-quarter economic growth

      Coronavirus
      Toyota and Nintendo warn of hit from coronavirus outbreak
      World’s second-largest carmaker expects sentiment downturn from illness to hurt China sales
      3 hours ago

      Coronavirus
      Hong Kong imposes quarantine on mainland China arrivals
      Fear ripples through Asian financial centre following first death from virus

      Coronavirus
      Chinese county ‘locked down’ over new coronavirus fears

      Coronavirus
      China energy groups braced for 25% fall in domestic oil demand

      Analysis
      Coronavirus
      Coronavirus shakes centre of global tech supply chain

      1. I do not know if this is fake news or not but it makes for an interesting read …

        Did China’s Tencent Accidentally Leak The True Terrifying Coronavirus Statistics | Zero Hedge
        https://www.zerohedge.com/health/did-chinas-tencent-accidentally-leak-true-terrifying-coronavirus-statistics

        (snip)

        But the biggest hit to the narrative and China’s officially reported epidemic numbers came overnight, when a slip up in China’s TenCent may have revealed the true extent of the coronavirus epidemic on the mainland. And it is nothing short than terrifying.

        As the Taiwan Times reports, over the weekend, “Tencent seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures”, and were far closer to the catastrophic epidemic projections made by Jonathan Read.

        According to the report, late on Saturday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled “Epidemic Situation Tracker”, showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

        And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

        1. (another snip)

          This was not the first time Tencent has done this: as Taiwan Times notes, Chinese netizens have noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.

          This is where it gets even more bizarre: contrary to claiming that this was just a “fat finger” mistyping of data, observant Chinese netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day’s data which demonstrates a “reasonable” incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers.

          This led many in the mainland to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and “processed” data.

          In short, two camps have emerged: one, the more optimistic, speculates that a coding problem could be causing the real “internal” data to accidentally appear. The other, far more pessimistically inclined, believes that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers, as “the “internal” data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic.”

          Indeed, as repeatedly pointed out here and according to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals. Furthermore, a severe shortage of test kits also leads to a lower number of diagnosed cases of infection and death. In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low.

          What is the truth?

          We leave it up to readers, but keep this in mind: on Jan 29, Zeng Guang, the chief scientist of epidemiology at China’s CDC, made a rare candid admission about why Chinese officials cannot tell people the truth in an interview with the state-run tabloid Global Times: “The officials need to think about the political angle and social stability in order to keep their positions.”

          And then, on Monday, none other than China Xi’s called on all officials to quickly work together to contain the Coronavirus at a rare meeting of top leaders, saying the outcome would “directly impact social stability in the country.”

          Well, if China is mostly concerned about social stability – as it should be for a nation of 1.4 billion – it is easy to comprehend why the entire political apparatus in China would be geared to presenting numbers which seem somewhat credible – in light of the barrage of videos of people dying on the street – but not so terrifying as to cause a countrywide panic.

          Then again, if China indeed had over 154,000 cases and almost 25,000 deaths as of 5 days ago, then no attempts to mask the full extent and true severity of the pandemic have any hope of “containing” the truth.

        2. One interesting thing about this is the typical person wouldn’t be surprised if it were true. That’s how little trust there is with the Chinese commies. Organ harvesting? Slave labor? Is there anything we haven’t heard about these thugs?

          1. China has ordered a mass quarantine of patients in Wuhan and admitted the death rate is 4.1 percent in Wuhan while only .7 percent in the rest of China. I continued to believe the virus is neither particularly deadly with adequate medical care not particularly contagious. However the authorities in Wuhan covered this up for months while the cases totally overwhelmed the medical system and the containment measures. The narrative China wants is that it reported to the world the virus as soon as possible and that the death rate is 2 percent since that is what is should be with proper medical care. When you look at the numbers it just looks like they are manipulating the numbers to match the narrative. They are escalating the case numbers to get closer to reality and then using the 2 percent number to calculate the deaths. Someday they may slip up and claim that there were 60.4 deaths that day.

          2. I continued to believe the virus is neither particularly deadly with adequate medical care not particularly contagious.

            Earlier reports indicate he died. A healthy, 34 year old doctor who contracted the virus a month ago, dies. That’s how long it takes for a lot of these people to die. Look how low the “recovery” rate is as compared to the number infected. I don’t think you know your ass from a tree stump on this subject.

            https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/whistleblower-chinese-doctor-dies-coronavirus-155553261.html

          3. Earlier reports indicate he died.

            I’m also hearing that he left behind an infected 8 month pregnant wife. My wife gets a ton of back stories and rumors through wechat. So far most have turned out to be true.

          4. A healthy 34-year old doctor dies. Yet the patients in Germany had a sore throat over a weekend and didn’t even realize it was coronavirus. People in quarantine seem to be doing rather well. WTF is going on? Is thing deadly or not?

          5. People in quarantine seem to be doing rather well. WTF is going on? Is thing deadly or not?

            The problem is the extended incubation period as well as the long time frame between first symptoms and death. I am no doctor but I have always had good insight and gut instincts. My gut says this is definitely the worst pandemic since the Spanish flu, and our only hope is a vaccination and cure. Otherwise, I think we might see 1/3 of the human population die.

          6. Otherwise, I think we might see 1/3 of the human population die.

            That should put a smile on St. Greta’s smug mug.

        3. And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

          Given the overall state of panic in China, these higher numbers seem plausible.

          1. When I look at the John Hopkins website I see 1382 recovered and 565 deaths, only 2 deaths outside of China. I cannot find the recovered by country but the last time I did find it it looked like several score had recovered.

          2. only 2 deaths outside of China.

            You keep hammering this home and it tells me you’re understanding a key ingredient of this outbreak. IT TAKES A LONG TIME TO DIE. The doctor who died only started showing symptoms in early January. There is no way to determine exactly when he caught it. So, it took a month for him to die, perhaps longer. It hasn’t even been a month since the symptomatic people in other countries were diagnosed. A little patience on your part would do wonders.

      2. The US wants the tech supply chain to move from China. It is not a totally zero sum world out there but when it comes to China, a strong China under the present leadership is bad for this country.

        1. Worst cruise ever?

          Coronavirus cases triple to 61 on cruise ship quarantined in Japan, with 41 more reported
          Jayme Deerwester | USA TODAY

          The number of diagnosed cases of coronavirus on a Princess Cruises ship quarantined off the coast of Yokohoma, Japan, has tripled, according to the latest report from the cruise line.

          The Japanese Ministry of Health notified Princess Cruises that an additional 41 people screened aboard the Diamond Princess have tested positive for coronavirus, the cruise line said in a statement late Thursday. On Wednesday, Princess Cruises confirmed 20 diagnosed cases of coronavirus on the ship, which was already under a 14-day quarantine.

          Guests testing positive are expected to be transported to local hospitals immediately.
          …

    2. One possible piece of good news on the coronavirus. The rumor today is that a drug originally developed for Ebola is working really well on the coronovirus. It’s called Remdesivir. It would appear that the good people in the Wuhan Institute were focused on getting a patent on it themselves specific to this virus while we just shipped them a bunch and it’s working really well. So at the moment there are people over there who are thanking us and pretty angry at their own people for trying to profit off the crisis.

      1. And if you get the virus and need it here, it’ll only cost you the low sum of $250,000. Don’t worry, you can always sell everything you own and pay for the rest of your life.

        1. How many cases and how many deaths outside of China? Does headless mean brainless too? Whether the doctor is dead or not, it is a tragedy what is has gone through. Nevertheless, it does not alter the estimates that this virus has a 2 to 3 percent death rate and that is down from 2 to 4 percent previously. Moreover, we have confirmed that this epidemic goes back to December 1st. The low number of cases outside China despite the large numbers of travelers does not support a highly contagious narrative. So skip the insults and I will too. Just debate using the evidence.

          1. The experts say with a new virus the initial cases skew to the severe side and mortality rates drop as less severe cases are caught. It is rare for a 34 year old to die from flu but it does happen. IA report, I saw said 80 percent of the deaths from this virus have been people over 60. Ironically the Spanish flu was known for killing young adults, in numbers not normal for flu and scientists are still trying to figure out why.

          2. What’s puzzling me is the wide variability in the severity of the disease, along with inconsistency of the method of transition.
            I’ll keep my hypothesis of the virus being weakened, but still contagious, on surfaces. Or there’s the tinfoil genetics theory.

          3. Or there’s the tinfoil genetics theory.

            Another tinfoil theory I heard was that some other kind of vaccination/medication given to everyone in China but not commonly used in other places may make them more susceptible to this.

          4. Also are we really sure that a doctor who has embarrassed the communist regime is receiving the best of care?

          5. my hypothesis of the virus being weakened, but still contagious, on surfaces

            I don’t see how that would work.

          6. Chinese microbiologists attempting to sequence the genome for the coronavirus have reportedly made a startling discovery: under an electron microscope, the gene sequence spells out “Realtors are Liars.”

          7. My Chinese co-workers are nervous about this virus, especially since half the company is Chinese and most of our business is in China. Operations is Taiwan so a little safer I guess.

            Surprised Silicon valley hasn’t been hit harder .

          8. Surprised Silicon valley hasn’t been hit harder .

            In what way? Up here in Folsom the last guys coming out of China arrived back here a couple of weeks ago. We’re not expecting more people to travel back and forth until it’s under control. If any of them had it and took it to work then things would get messy but it appears that nobody did. Still waiting to hear if anybody did that at Intel. As soon as there is a confirmed case at Intel then we’ll know it’s about to get big in this town.

            Also, if it hits India hard it will probably hit tech in the US hard.

          9. In what way? Up here in Folsom the last guys coming out of China arrived back here a couple of weeks ago.’

            Lots of back and forth in silicon valley there to China. Could have been brought back by accident before the big quarantine. Hopefully it was not and so far so good.
            Back from China our crew is self quarantined for 2 weeks and so far nobody has got sick with this. I’m in S. CA and lots of people are sick I was last week but probably just a flu. We were told to stay home and not take Tylenol to mask a fever so I stayed home.

          10. “What’s puzzling me is the wide variability in the severity of the disease, along with inconsistency of the method of transition.”

            Some of the variation is doubtless due to inconsistencies in reporting.

            Timing is also a likely factor, as places where the disease recently showed up are like China in November 2019…not there yet.

            Also, as the caseload relative to medical resources matters. In places where the disease recently landed, milder cases may end up at the hospital as confirmed cases, even if recovery is highly probable. China’s confirmed cases may be in much worse shape, on average.

  8. buildings cheap enough to lure back buyers ……exactly if they were market rate you wouldn’t be able to afford it……the big $$$ was buying a RS building cheap then waiting 20 years for all the old people to move to FL a nursing home or die off so you can renovate it to market rate. even though if you lived with your parents for 2 years before they died or moved you could take over their cheap lease….which could easily save you $1000+ a month in rent you could put some of that saving into your IRS and be well off in 30 years but most kids today are not that savvy. so the landlord makes out like a bandit by getting the apartment back for FREE.

    1. “buildings cheap enough to lure back buyers”

      Geez realtor, your really admitting to your deceitful ways:

      lure
      /lo͝or/
      verb
      tempt (a person or animal) to do something or to go somewhere, especially by offering some form of reward.
      “the child was lured into a car but managed to escape”

  9. ‘If your house is worth $200,000 and you sell it for $178,000, you are not going to get your money to replace that home with a new one,’ Weaver said. ‘So you are just not selling it.’”

    Um, dont think it’s worth 200k then … maybe I’m missing something. You know my Tesla stocks is worth 968 per share. But when I sell it, …

    1. ‘So you are just not selling it.’”

      You can say that again.

      As a noted economist said, “I can ask $50k for my run down 10 year old Chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that price? So it is with all depreciating assets like houses.”

      He’s right.

      Falls Church, VA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY On Surging Arlington County Unemployment And Foreclosures

      https://www.zillow.com/falls-church-va-22046/home-values/

      A Washington area broker disclosed, “prices and rental rates are cratering and there is nothing anyone can do about it.”

  10. Some comments to the CT article:

    “Despite the fact that there were 4 fewer sales this January vs last, leading to a somewhat sensational headline, the more important news is that inventory is down from 237 to 177–a 25% decrease and very good news for New Canaan real estate! Lower inventory over time leads to higher prices.”

    “Thank you for submitting your comment, Nancy. How is citing a data-based percentage “somewhat sensational”? Were you equally concerned by last month’s headline ‘Home Sales Rise 13% in December’? Why didn’t you comment then? What about this one from last fall? Or this one? (Also, a general request of our readers: Kindly avoid using these comments threads to make somewhat embarrassingly blatant sales pitches.) Thank you again.”

    2. “Thank you for submitting your comment, Nancy. How is citing a data-based percentage “somewhat sensational”?

      Nancy’s Ramen-based diet, coupled with the stress of hiding her Lexus SUV away from her house and office to thwart the repo man, is making her surly.

      1. In my nabe, 2.5 million will buy you an acre and a half. With 7 houses already on it. Unless that plot in Gilbert has gold under it, it’s a scam. I’m surprised it’s not priced at 2,488,888.88.

  12. ‘If your house is worth $200,000 and you sell it for $178,000, you are not going to get your money to replace that home with a new one,’ Weaver said. ‘So you are just not selling it.’”

    News flash, REIC Boy: If your shack sells for $178,000, any delusion that it’s worth $200K has just been overcome by events.

  15. Stories From Wuhan and Hubei
    By Epoch Times Staff
    February 5, 2020

    ‘Yang Yang is a resident of the Hanyang district of Wuhan. His father started having difficulty breathing. Because local hospitals were crowded, his father was never hospitalized and wasn’t tested for the coronavirus. When he died from respiratory failure on Jan. 29, his death wasn’t tallied as part of the outbreak death toll by local officials.’

    ‘Yang and his 61-year-old mother recently developed symptoms similar to those caused by the virus, including fever, cough, and chest pain.’

    ‘Xu, a graduate student in Xiaogan City, Hubei Province, said his father, a high school teacher, began feeling feverish on Jan. 13. But officials delayed conducting diagnostic tests until his symptoms became severe. On Jan. 17, he was transferred to the Tongji hospital in Wuhan, one of the facilities designated for treating the coronavirus.’

    ‘By the time the results came back positive for coronavirus, his father had died, on Jan. 31. Xu says he and his mother are exhibiting symptoms now. “There are no hospital beds left [in Tongji hospital]. There’s only one room left for people to be hospitalized. The other patients are all mixed together, and can easily infect others,” he said.’

    ‘A Wuhan resident surnamed Wang says officials in his city are covering up cases of the coronavirus. His father died after exhibiting symptoms of the virus. He and his mother are now also showing symptoms, such as coughing constantly.’

    ‘Wang said that authorities in his district have set a daily maximum of three suspected cases that are allowed to be reported. Any additional cases won’t be acknowledged. Wang said that people aren’t allowed to mention the coronavirus on the popular social media platform WeChat, or else their accounts may be deleted. He added that health workers in Wuhan are subject to a gag order that forbids them to talk to anyone about the situation at their workplaces.’

    ‘Sun, a resident of the Wuchang district of Wuhan, said he wishes to send away his 9-year-old child, since he worries about what could happen to his child if he were to become infected and quarantined.’

    ‘He also expressed concerns about his parents. If they were to fall ill while he’s not with them, Sun said, they wouldn’t be able to get to a hospital themselves, since there’s no public transportation available. It’s fitting to describe Wuhan as a “living hell,” Sun said.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/stories-from-wuhan-and-hubei-2_3228773.html

    1. ‘He also expressed concerns about his parents. If they were to fall ill while he’s not with them, Sun said, they wouldn’t be able to get to a hospital themselves, since there’s no public transportation available. It’s fitting to describe Wuhan as a “living hell,” Sun said.’

      Straight to the incinerator is where they’re going. The bodies are stacking up.

    2. Involvement of Wuhan P4 Lab Questioned
      Chinese Netizens Exposing Unethical Practices in China’s Biolabs

      ‘A Chinese scholar recently challenged Wuhan’s P4 lab to explain how the proteins of the Wuhan coronavirus seem to have been precisely engineered to enable the virus to bind onto human cells. He also disclosed unethical and unprofessional practices he previously observed in China’s bioresearch labs’

      ‘A social media user named Wu Xiaohua, with a Ph.D. in biological related fields according to his WeChat profile, challenged Shi to answer key questions about the suspicious gene mutations found in the new virus. Wu pointed out there is no way that these mutations are the outcome of natural recombination. “Now, many scientists, including Shi herself, believe that this virus must have originated from bats, and would involve one or two virus hosts to explain the gene mutations. Based on current scientific publications, the virus must jump from rats to primates before it can infect humans. Then how is this step—from rats to primates—usually achieved? It can only be done in a research lab by scientists inserting a certain protein from primates into rats,” Wu wrote. “I have personally performed the same type of genetic engineering experiments. You cannot get away by being cavalier. Do you dare to accept the challenge and give us an explanation?” he asked.’

      ‘Wu also disclosed that some biolabs in China are very poorly regulated. (Wu’s WeChat post)

      “For instance, some researchers in these labs kept the laboratory dogs as pets; some disposed of animal carcasses casually because following the biosafety rules and cremating them costs a lot of money. Some cut up the laboratory pigs and took the meat home to eat. I know this happened at Beijing 301 Hospital’s spine surgery lab. Worst of all, some laboratory animals were sold to wet markets as wild-caught animals for profit,” he wrote.’

      ‘Xu Bo, a well-known IT magnate and billionaire in China, cited reports and articles to support Wu’s statements. In his blog, Xu cited a news report about a lawsuit against biologist Li Ning. Li is an academician of China Engineering Academy, and a former professor at China Agricultural University. The judgment in Li’s case came, which out on Jan. 2 this year, stated that between 2008 and 2012, Li’s lab sold experimental pigs, cows, and milk to local markets. These animal and animal products were bought using research funds; but Li and his fellow colleagues pocketed the money, a total of 10,179,201 yuan ($1,460,304), from the sale of these animals and animal products. Li was sentenced to 12 years in prison for embezzlement.’

      ‘According to a 2016 report from the China Experimental Animal Information Network, Chinese researchers use tens of millions of laboratory animals every year. The Experimental Animal Research Center of Hubei Province alone handles about 300,000 animals a year, either for bioresearch experiments inside the center, or to be sold and distributed to other labs in Hubei Province. Xu and many other Chinese netizens say they suspect that the novel coronavirus is a genetically engineered virus that somehow escaped from Wuhan P4 Biosafety lab.’

      ‘A P4 lab handles level 4 biosafety pathogens, the highest level and most dangerous, which have high fatality rates and no known treatments, such as, the ebola and SARS viruses. Such a lab must follow the highest microbiological safety standards to ensure the safety of researchers and the public.’

      ‘The P4 lab in Wuhan is not only the first of its kind in China, but also the first in Asia. When it opened in 2017, U.S. scientists expressed concerns that, considering China’s opaque administrative structure, if one of those killer viruses “escaped” from the lab, it could cause a doomsday disaster.’

      https://www.theepochtimes.com/involvement-of-wuhan-p4-lab-questioned_3230182.html#

      1. You cannot build a collectivist society in any country, whether China or the U.S., without first destroying public and private morality and traditional virtues like honesty and integrity.

      3. Are we just whistling past the graveyard?

        We have a perfect storm of events here – a nasty virus outbreak, and wildly conflicting reports of its damage and capability, but also located in the center of of one of the most tightly controlling regimes on the planet, and we’re still in the middle of it playing out.

        We just don’t know for sure if the office stories and figures are mostly accurate or a big coverup. We can speculate all we want. People want to accept the official story – that’s human nature. But the stuff slipping through the cracks – it’s hard to not have a nagging fear this is something much closer to the opening of a zombie horror or post-apocalyptic movie playing out.

        All we can do is wait and see how it unfolds.

    3. Seems like the case fatality rate and case count could be way off, if many cases are going undiagnosed and the resulting coronavirus deaths are hence uncounted. Someone who is too ill to go to the hospital for treatment will die without showing up in the confirmed case count. The CFR may thus actually be higher among unconfirmed cases than among those strong enough to compete for scarce treatment. The overstretched medical establishment may also have a preference for treating those healthy enough to have a hope for recovery, amplifying the bias.

        1. That would be a very serious bias. Given human nature, the tendency would be to understate the severity of the situation.

          However, that doesn’t seem to be the case for the cruise ship off Japan.

  18. Highland, UT Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As One Salt Lake City Broker Shares, “It’s bad. Really bad. Dump your house for whatever it will fetch.”

    https://www.zillow.com/highland-ut/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist stated, “You’d have to have rocks in your head to buy a house in the last 15 years.”

  19. Headless cite me a source which states that it takes longer to die than to recover. I have not seen one source which states how long a patient must be virus free before they are pronounced recovered. While some people may be dying from complications one month later, what makes you think that you cannot die the first day you reach the hospital but will not be declared recovered until you test negative for weeks? Finally, there are 634 deaths and 1487 recoveries and all the articles I see are quoting the 2 percent death rate. Finally, the disease has been listed as harder to catch than the flu. So you can assert all you want about a 1/3 death rate but not one expert agrees with you. The longer this has gone on the lower the expected death rate has become. We have dropped from a 2 to 4, percent range to a 2 to 3 percent range with most experts expecting it to settle at the lower range because the death rate tends to trend down not up during this epidemic since the weaker infections are identified with better testing and experience.

    1. Finally, there are 634 deaths and 1487 recoveries and all the articles I see

      The concept that the news from the CCP is overwhelmingly likely to be false cannot find a toehold with Dan.

      1. His childlike faith in the corrupt, evil CCP and its lies would warm the hearts of these vulpine Party tyrants.

      2. To the contrary I have been saying it has been false since the beginning. I believe it was engineered in a Wuhan lab, spread for months longer than the Chinese government claimed and the numbers and deaths are far higher than the government is claiming. Despite this I do believe that scientists outside China are telling the truth. There are enough patients outside of China and enough samples of the virus to draw conclusions that a two percent death rate is correct and thar is harder to catch then the flu.. Both of these are the consensus just Google the questions and you will see both virtually uniformally supported.

        1. Finally, there are 634 deaths and 1487 recoveries

          Excuse me, I thought you were citing China data there.

      3. 320 cases outside of mainland China and two deaths. The mortality rate outside of China has been dropping not rising. It is down to around .7 percent. The rate is even lower if you take out the cases and death in Hong Kong. People can stamp their feet and say that people who are sick can still die but the experience with epidemics is that they longer they go on the lower mortality rate becomes. Still waiting for a cogent explanation on why it is different this time. Seem to remember that phrase in 2006 on why we were not in a housing bubble.

    2. You’re using China’s statistics to support your argument yet you have been yammering on about how China is faking all of their statistics to “catch up” to the real death rate that they were lying about before. I don’t even know what your argument is anymore.

    3. (634 + 1487) / 634 ~ .298

      These numbers suggest a far worse fatality rate, with thousands of outcomes yet to be determined. Frankly, I think all the reported numbers are trash.

      1. Apparently the quarantine aboard the cruise ship off of Yokohama isn’t going well at all.

        The next few weeks will be very telling. If the numbers start shooting up outside of Asia, I might head over to the warehouse club to stock up. I also work from home, which would be a plus.

        1. I still think you should head over now. While everything is still uncontaminated. The cruise ship is disconcerting to say the least. There is no way these people are coughing and sneezing on each other. It must be surface-spread.

          Meanwhile, there are only 3 confirmed cases still in India. That’s the number I’m looking at.

      2. Your equation inverts the numerator and the denominator. It also does not represent a case fatality rate or a mortality rate.

        Posted previously, from Wikipedia for case fatality rate:

        A case fatality rate (CFR, also case fatality risk, or case fatality ratio) is the proportion of deaths within a designated population due to a given medical condition (cases), of such cases over the course of the disease. A CFR is conventionally expressed as a percentage and represents a measure of risk. CFRs are most often used for diseases with discrete, limited time courses, such as outbreaks of acute infections.

        A mortality rate – often confused with a CFR – is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time.

        1. “It also does not represent a case fatality rate or a mortality rate.”

          I am missing your point here. Why do you believe his (corrected) calculation doesn’t at least provide a rough estimate of the CFR?

          1. When I researched case fatality rates and mortality rates before deciding to post Wikipedia’s simplified definitions, nowhere did I see the use of “recovered cases.” “A designated population due to a given medical condition (cases), of such cases over the course of the disease” equates with “confirmed cases.”

            See also the CDC Pandemic Severity Index chart.

          2. ‘…nowhere did I see the use of “recovered cases.”’

            That doesn’t preclude considering them in constructing an estimator for the CFR, though.

          3. That doesn’t preclude considering them

            “Recovered cases” are presumed to be in “confirmed cases.” Regardless, the numbers coming out of China are fabricated thus any calculations based on them are meaningless.

    4. I went to the big Asian grocery store in my neighborhood and every single worker there had a mask on as well as many of the customers. My Chinese friends are telling me the situation is bad even in some cities far from Wuhan. There are leaked videos surfacing of people being rounded up in Wuhan by people in protective suits and carted away in vans and windowless crates screaming. Also hearing the hospitals are full and most sick people are turned away. BTW I live in SoCal.

      1. There are leaked videos surfacing of people being rounded up in Wuhan by people in protective suits and carted away in vans and windowless crates screaming.

        That clip was disturbing.

        1. That clip was disturbing.

          Very. Disturbing.

          That makes 3 clips I’ve seen so far with those crates.

          Was anything like this done during the SARS or MERS outbreaks?

          4. Is it a coincidence that our Socialist Comrades in the US are the ones saying we don’t need it?

            My lefty friends used to be quite fond of saying condescendingly “nobody is coming for your guns”. They don’t say that any more.

          5. Ditto…

            Seriously – the stuff leaking in around the edges of the ‘official’ reports is paining a picture that would be at home in a zombie/pandemic movie…

    1. What did these staffers expect at the office, a petting room stocked with chinchillas that you could visit while still on the clock?

  21. One correction. You seem to be asserting that 1/3 of the population may die which is an even higher rate than 33.3 percent mortality rate since in no epidemic even in the dark ages did everyone get infected.

    1. It seems he was trying to estimate the case fatality rate as the percentage of confirmed cases that have died as a fraction of all resolved confirmed cases.
      The denominator only includes those who have a confirmed case of coronavirus and either recovered or died. Unconfirmed cases and unresolved confirmed cases are ignored in the estimate, as they are known unknowns.

      Do you find this confusing?

  22. Because you ain’t gonna hear it from the real journalists I present you…

    The all undocumented child molesters and murderers along with other felons can not be deported and are welcome to cross the border act.

    H.R.5383 – New Way Forward Act

    To reform the process for enforcing the immigration laws of the United States, and for other purposes.

    IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

    December 10, 2019

    Mr. García of Illinois (for himself, Ms. Jayapal, Ms. Bass, Ms. Pressley, Mr. Grijalva, Ms. Velázquez, Ms. Haaland, Ms. Tlaib, Ms. Escobar, Ms. Omar, Ms. Garcia of Texas, Mr. Espaillat, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, Ms. Judy Chu of California, Mr. Danny K. Davis of Illinois, Ms. Lee of California, Mr. Rush, Mr. Blumenauer, Mr. Takano, Ms. Barragán, Mr. McGovern, Ms. Meng, Mrs. Napolitano, Ms. Schakowsky, Ms. Wilson of Florida, Mr. Serrano, Ms. Clarke of New York, Ms. Norton, Mrs. Watson Coleman, Mr. Vargas, Mr. Cárdenas, Mr. Brown of Maryland, Mr. Johnson of Georgia, Mr. Correa, and Mr. Meeks) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on the Judiciary

    A BILL

    To reform the process for enforcing the immigration laws of the United States, and for other purposes.

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/5383/text

    1. (c) Particularly Serious Crime.—Section 208(b)(2)(B)(i) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1158)(b)(2)(B)(i)) is amended to read as follows:

      “(i) CONVICTION OF AGGRAVATED FELONY.—For purposes of clause (ii) of subparagraph (A), section 241(b)(3)(B), or any other provision of this Act, only an alien who has been convicted of an aggravated felony for which a term of imprisonment of not less than five years was imposed shall be considered to have been convicted of a particularly serious crime.”.

  24. I do not know why a previous post is not posting but it is the outside numbers that are truly being relied upon and the scientists from outside of China.

  25. I can’t keep up with The Financial Times’ stellar coverage of the coronavirus outbreak.

    The Coronavirus Outbreak
    Analysis

    Coronavirus
    Villages build barricades to keep coronavirus at bay
    Communities have been sealed off as authorities struggle to contain the outbreak
    new 53 minutes ago

    Coronavirus
    Coronavirus turns Asian cruise ships into prison hulks
    Quarantined vessel in Japan becomes host to biggest outbreak outside China
    2 hours ago

    Analysis
    The Big Read
    Coronavirus: the cost of China’s public health cover-up
    A crackdown on information about the virus in Wuhan allowed the disease to spread far more widely

    Luxury goods
    L’Oréal says coronavirus to weigh on Asia sales

    Coronavirus
    Fiat Chrysler warns coronavirus might shut European plant

    Coronavirus
    Coronavirus threatens to tip China property into downturn
    …

    1. This all seems very bullish for the stock market. What will it be, another 500 points+ tomorrow?

      1. Futures are not looking good. If the virus doesn’t damage the economy, the distrust of China will.

        But I’ll make a prediction that mid-summer will be a prime time to cash out of DOW and load up on the precious.

      2. force ma·jeure
        /ˌfôrs mäˈZHər/
        noun
        1. unforeseeable circumstances that prevent someone from fulfilling a contract.
        2. irresistible compulsion or greater force.

        1. Coronavirus
          Coronavirus triggers turmoil in global gas market
          Prices hit as Chinese importers of LNG declare ‘force majeure’ on some contracts
          new an hour ago

          Chinese copper traders declare force majeure
          Buyers of commodity have cancelled or delayed shipments due to deadly outbreak

          1. Chinese firms have used warehouses full of copper as collateral on loans – sometimes pledged for multiple loans. If the value of the underlying collateral starts melting away – as is the case in the U.S. commercial and residential real estate markets – some lenders are going to get schlonged big-time.

          2. warehouses full of copper

            And in the most delicious of ironies, that copper when brought to market to satisfy some will collapse in value.

  26. Bloomberg better step up his ad buying. I want the globalist vote split at least three ways. Right now Biden is collapsing like Clinton and getting thrown into the vehicle. I want Bernie to have the nomination. Bloomberg needs to get on Mayor Pete’s butt, in the polls, to keep Bernie in the lead.

  27. I don’t find this article very reassuring.

    Health
    Fifth suspected coronavirus case reported in San Diego
    France Virus Outbreak
    French lab scientists in hazmat gear inserting liquid in test tube manipulate potentially infected patient samples at Pasteur Institute in Paris Thursday.
    (The Associated Press)
    Individual is third from quarantine flight transported to UC San Diego Medical Center in Hillcrest
    By Paul Sisson
    Feb. 6, 2020
    3:17 PM

    The number of suspected coronavirus cases linked to Wednesday’s quarantine flight from Wuhan City, China, jumped to five Thursday afternoon.

    The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement that UC San Diego Medical Center in Hillcrest received a third quarantined patient from Marine Corps Air Station Miramar Thursday afternoon.

    The additional transfer, who had a fever and a cough, is the fifth such patient to arrive at a local hospital since the quarantine flight delivered 167 returning American citizens and their families to the military base Wednesday morning.

    Two additional patients went to the university hospital Wednesday night while a father and his daughter were taken to Rady Children’s Hospital the same evening.
    …

    1. It’s an optimistic sign that the evacuation quarantine is working. That’s five people who will not be spreading the virus in California.

      1. That’s an optimistic view. But we have no idea how many people who visited Wuhan brought the coronavirus back to the states before the quarantine measures began.

      1. It would be much more worrying if it was caught in a country like France and then brought to the US. It would suggest a large number of people in France might have the disease. Much easier to catch something if everyone is coughing and filling the air and every surface with droplets.

  29. This may be true for flyover country but not in prime areas of Sacramento. Housing inventory and prices remain sky high in midtown, East Sacramento, Curtis Park, Land Park and so forth. NIMBY laws and lack of new construction make it difficult for first time buyers who are not wealthy.

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