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Buyers Begin To See Your Home As Stale Inventory And Think They Can Get A Discount

A report from Yahoo Finance on New York. “After years of inventory stockpiles and dropping prices, Manhattan’s luxury real estate market is selling at record-low prices. The threshold for a sale to be considered ‘luxury’ dropped 6.1% to $3,816,835 in the fourth quarter 2019 — the lowest threshold since 2013, according to Streeteasy. New York is an ‘honest market,’ said Kelly Killoren Bensimon, a luxury real estate broker at Douglas Elliman and a former star of Bravo’s realty TV show The Real Housewives of New York. ‘People are having bidding wars because the prices are right. The sellers are selling at [a] great price, the buyers are buying at [a] great price.'”

The New York Post. “That’s quite the haircut. A court ruling this past week could lead to a dramatic trimming of the nearly completed 200 Amsterdam Avenue, currently the tallest tower on the Upper West Side standing at 668 feet. If it holds, 20 stories or more could have to be removed–nearly half of the 55-story condo tower–according to an estimate from the attorney representing the plaintiffs. ‘It’s probably about half the building that has to come down. That’s the best estimate so far,’ said the attorney, Richard Emery. ‘This is a blasting horn to the finance people who are putting money into buildings … lenders and developers are in a less secure position now when they dive into a challenging project.'”

From Patch Warminster in Pennsylvania. “A lifestyle of Hollywood glamour right here in Warminster has gotten hundreds of thousands of dollars cheaper. The price of a 12,000-square-foot mansion built for a celebrity in 1989 has dropped $700,000 from when it first hit the market in September. Its most recent listing prices the 7-bedroom, 6-bath mansion on Beverly Hills Road at $2,695,000. Its original list price was $3,395,000.”

From Arlington Now in Virginia. “You can’t time most markets and the housing market is no exception. What you can do is always properly prepare your house, and price your home to sell, not sit. Days on market are your friend when the count is low, specifically three weeks or less. Once it creeps past a few weeks, buyers begin to see your home as stale inventory and think they can get a discount. This happens — even here in Arlington!”

“Our market still operates with an overlay of general caution and a fear of overpaying; caution is not totally thrown to the wind. Buyers know what a home is worth; while they may be willing to overpay slightly, even that has its limits.”

The Business Insider on California. “A Victorian in San Francisco’s Castro District looks like a dream, but buyers weren’t interested at the price the seller was asking. It was purchased in 2014 for a $1.5 million, and underwent a total renovation, Curbed reported. It first went back on the market a year ago, asking $11.85 million, but when no buyers came along, it quietly left the market, only to come back with an $8.5 million price tag.”

The Review Journal in Nevada. “The Summerlin home of Golden Knights owner Bill Foley ranked as the third most expensive single-family home sold in Las Vegas in 2019. The two-story home at 19 Flying Cloud Lane in The Ridges in Summerlin sold in December for $6.5 million and was originally listed for $9.5 million. 1198 MacDonald Ranch Drive in MacDonald Highlands in Henderson sold for $7 million after originally being listed for $11.5 million. 15 Flying Cloud Lane in The Ridges in Summerlin. It sold for $6.35 million after originally being listed for $8.9 million. It was built in 2018.”

“59 Promontory Ridge in The Ridges in Summerlin sold for $6.25 million after being listed for $7.9 million. 8101 Obannon Drive, north of Sahara Avenue near South Cimarron Road, sold for $6 million after originally listed for $10.5 million. 1353 Dilevante Drive in Seven Hills in Henderson for $5.6 million after originally listed for $5.97 million. 1210 MacDonald Ranch Drive in MacDonald Highlands in Henderson for $5.4 million after originally listed for $6.99 million. It’s a Silver Nugget award winner for Custom Home of the Year in 2018 and was built in 2017 by Sun West Homes.”

From WFAA in Texas. “The luxury residential sector in Dallas has swung to a buyer’s market, according to Erin Mathews, an agent who sells high-end homes with Dallas-based brokerage Allie Beth Allman & Associates. ‘For about the last three years, the high-end market has remained about the same in my view,’ Mathews said. ‘It’s not bad. It’s just a bit stagnant. We’re not seeing a tremendous amount of growth.'”

“Tom Hughes, a founding agent at Compass Real Estate in Dallas, said a lack of inventory is the biggest problem that agents face now in Highland Park, University Park, and Preston Hollow. The supply of homes in those places is hovering around six months, which is more supply than two years ago, but lower than last year, he said. ‘The inventory is an issue,’ he said.”

From Money.com. “With millions of Americans facing financial burdens like student loans and high rents, saving up to make the traditional 20% down payment on a first home can be daunting. There’s good news for prospective home owners: You don’t need to do it. Nearly half of renters said they believe they need at least a 20% down payment to buy a house, according to Bank of America’s 2018 Homebuyer Insights Report, despite the fact that the government and most housing experts disagree.”

“‘There’s a prevailing thought out there that you need to put 20% down in order to purchase a home, which is absolutely not the case,’ says Todd Sheinin, a loan officer at Homespire Mortgage in Gaithersburg, Md.”

“Nationally more than half of recent home buyers said they put down less than 20% on a mortgage, according to Zillow. In addition, a December survey by the National Association of Realtors found that 76% of first-time buyers put down less than 20%.”

“Before 2013 you needed to make at least a 5% down payment to qualify for a conventional mortgage — a loan not backed by a special government program — but that changed when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rolled out the Conventional 97 loan program. ‘These loans were started as first-time home buyer loans, but now they’re available to all home buyers,’ says Sheinin.”

“Conventional 97 loans allow you to put 3% down on a home. You’ll need a credit score of at least 620 to qualify. The U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs offers VA loans that give active or retired military — or a veteran’s surviving spouse — the ability to buy a home with no money down. Moreover, ‘VA loans have phenomenal interest rates and flexible lending guidelines,’ Sheinin says. Although the VA does not set a minimum credit score, most VA mortgage lenders require you to have a score of at least 580. The caveat? VA loans require you to cover a funding fee of 2.3% of your loan, which can be paid either upfront or it can be rolled into your mortgage payments.”

“Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans were created for low- and moderate-income households that would otherwise be locked out of the housing market, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at a mortgage information website. They require a minimum down payment of 3.5% and a minimum credit score of 580, but borrowers with a credit score of 500 to 579 can qualify by making a 10% down payment.”

“Geared toward low-income home buyers, U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Development (USDA) loans are offered to home buyers in select towns with populations of 10,000 or less. They offer competitive interest rates and allow for down payments as low as 0%.”

“Have a medical degree? You may qualify for a low-interest physician loan (also referred to as a ‘doctor loan’) that allows you to make a down payment as low as 0% (loans above $750,000 require a low down payment) and doesn’t require you to pay mortgage insurance. Another perk: unlike with a conventional loan, student loan payments that are in deferment do not affect whether you qualify for a physician loan.”

“Still don’t have enough cash socked away for a down payment? You may qualify for a down payment assistance program that will provide you money to cover a portion, or potentially all, of your down payment. These programs are available at the local, state, and federal levels. There are more than 2,500 programs nationwide, so your best approach is to have your mortgage lender help you assess your options and eligibility.”

This Post Has 155 Comments
    1. Regarding that Fremont listing: I just fail to understand why someone would drop that kind of money to build a place with such a huge monthly carrying cost. I mean it would take a small army just to keep it dusted and wiped-down. And the foliage needs water that must be pumped up there. WTF?

      1. The Wife must have been incensed when she found out that she would have a huge column right in the middle of the kitchen island. And there’s that gas stovetop on the open island again… dealbreaker.

      2. “….it would take a small army just to keep it dusted and wiped-down..”

        Can’t even imagine what it would be like to make payroll for full time staff, security, etc.

        Just like the Golden Gate bridge, you will need an almost full time crew just to keep this monster painted.

        Ditto for your plumber, gardener, pool man, and you haven’t even opened the front door yet.

        “If you have to ask the price you can’t afford it”

        And of course, maybe the .01% actually can.

  1. “Cities weigh free public transit amid rising costs”
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/do-we-care-about-public-cities-weigh-free-public-transit-n1137561

    “Wu’s position is shared by other progressive lawmakers across the country who say mobility is a human right, like health care and education, and think residents should be able to freely move around their cities, no matter their income brackets.”

    No mention of giving criminals access to better neighborhoods causing home values to decline.

    1. “When her office surveyed Boston youth about how they’d like to travel in the future, the majority said they wanted to use cars because public transit was expensive and unreliable.”

      And the city of Boston believed them? 🙄 I guess these oldsters liked to “park” with a girl on the bus.

    1. “Keillor, 77, bought the property for $2.15 million in March 2008, according to county records, just months before the housing bubble popped.”

      How could this guy NOT see that house prices had leveled-off, just waiting for the bottom to give way?

  2. “Sioux Falls is seeing a big increase in the sale of million dollar homes. ‘A year ago there were seven homes that sold, this past year there were 14 homes that sold in that price range,’ Gregg Gohl with Hegg Realtors said. ‘So we’re not talking huge amounts of homes compared to the 4,800 homes that sell each year here in our market.'”

    “‘Our monthly numbers only indicate what’s listed on the market, it doesn’t usually indicate someone who’s building a custom home out there,’ Gohl said. The popularity of custom luxury homes does impact the ability to sell current high end real estate. ‘It’s more difficult to sell simply because it’s a more limited buying pool,’ Gohl said. ‘If you’re a buyer in that price range, there’s quite a bit of inventory to look at.'”

    “‘From a $1 million to $1.5 million we have 15 homes in that price range on the market,’ Jamison said. ‘It’s a good time for a buyer.'”

    https://www.keloland.com/news/your-money-matters/sioux-falls-sees-major-increase-in-million-dollar-home-sales/

  3. As price drop contagion continues to spread like coronavirus throughout U.S. housing markets, stock markets are doing just fine: In stimulus we trust!

    1. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus

      Investor complacency sets in while coronavirus spreads

      Expectation of central bank support keeps markets afloat despite ‘black swan’ event
      A pedestrian walks in front of an electric quotation board displaying share prices of world bourses, including the Tokyo Stock Exchange (top C), along a street in Tokyo on January 27, 2020. – Tokyo’s key Nikkei index dropped more than two percent at the open on January 27 on concerns over the potential impact of a new coronavirus that has killed 80 people in China. (Photo by Kazuhiro NOGI / AFP) (Photo by KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP via Getty Images)
      Investors’ optimism on asset prices is not without foundation, given central banks’ ability to soothe stock markets © AFP via Getty
      Laurence Fletcher in London and Jennifer Ablan in New York February 14 2020

      While the coronavirus crisis spreads and deepens, threatening to damage supply chains and economies for months to come, many investors are falling back on a tried and tested response: count on central banks to fix the mess, and buy the dip.

      Key stock markets are hovering close to record highs even while the death count from the China-centred virus rises and travel in, out and around the country remains heavily restricted, hurting the outlook for domestic and international companies. Regardless, stumbles in stocks are quickly reversed.

      To some traders, this is proof that investors believe major central banks will pump more stimulus into the financial system. While that will not cure the virus, it would probably bolster asset prices, and expectation of this support is fuelling complacency among fund managers.

      1. “To some traders, this is proof that investors believe major central banks will pump more stimulus into the financial system.”

        – As I recall, despite their best efforts, that didn’t work out so well in 2000, 2008. Central Banks (i.e. centrally-planned, command and control economics) can extend the cycle, but not prevent it. Right now they’re fighting it tooth and nail, because they fear (and rightly so) the repercussions of an angry populace once the system collapses. They were cool with it as the bubble expanded, but ignored the inevitable bust on the other side. Since this is the largest financial bubble in history, they’re especially worried, but that didn’t stop them blowing this bubble, despite the evidence from the collapse of the last two.

        – Just like all things in life, there will be consequences for their actions. 2000 and 2008 were not exceptions.

        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-we-are-witnessing-biggest-asset-bubble-ever-created-central-bank
        BofA: We Are Witnessing The Biggest Asset Bubble Ever Created By A Central Bank
        by Tyler Durden | Fri, 02/14/2020 – 14:10
        “… and when what in 2018 was the third largest bubble of all time only has – thanks to 800 rate cuts by central banks since the Lehman bankruptcy – now been rebranded to “e-Commerce” by BofA’s Hartnett, and which as shown in the chart below has – after rising more than 1,000% from its crisis lows – become the single biggest asset bubble of all time.

    2. The Virus cant affect housing, the realtors and sheeple have confirmed values only go up, inventory is low, sellers have multiple bidding wars and homes sell the day they list! San diego homes especially. I heard sellers cant even get out of there shacks in time before the buyers to come scoop them up! To INFINITY AND BEYOND!!!!

      Heres what my local realtors have to say:

      ”Greetings my friend,

      Are you on the fence waiting for the next real estate market crash? If so, you may be waiting decades. If your renting you are giving away equity to your landlord. Let me help you qualify for a low or zero down loan and 12 months no payments. Now is the time to buy

      We currently have 251 Active Santa Cruz Homes, including single family homes as well as Santa Cruz County condos and Santa Cruz County townhomes for sale right here in Santa Cruz County. This is considered relatively low housing inventory in the Santa Cruz Real Estate Market and though we do expect to see the number of Santa Cruz homes for sale increase as we head into the Spring right now our Santa Cruz housing inventory is low

      With the low Santa Cruz housing inventory as well as historically low mortgage interest rates our Santa Cruz real estate market is hot and Santa Cruz homes for sale are in high demand. Right now some Santa Cruz listings are seeing multiple offers and even bidding wars. I have been selling real estate right here in Santa Cruz County for 15 years.. And this cycle of the Santa Cruz Real Estate Market tends to be a great time for Santa Cruz Home Sellers. As the lack of Santa Cruz Housing inventory tends to drive the competition amongst Santa Cruz Home Buyers

      Dont be left behind. contact me today

        1. Meanwhile, to rent a house you need first/last/deposit. Around here, if you want a decent size house for a family it’s $2k minimum per month, and that’s in a crappy area or out in “drive until you qualify” land. That means people have to have $6k cash just to move in. If you want to live in a nicer house in tow, you’re looking at a minimum of $3k per month. That brings the total cash needed to $9k liquid. It’s a no-brainer that broke people would be buying right now – you don’t even need any money!

      1. “If your renting you are giving away equity to your landlord.”

        Your = “you are” in Realtortongue?

        I’m sure grateful that my landlord covers yard care, home maintenance and repair, real estate taxes, HOA dues, and rec club membership out of the monthly check we send him. It is a win-win, as the landlord gets to enjoy San Diego’s unlimited home price appreciation.

      1. Note the shrinkage discussed in this article predates the coronavirus scourge.

        Japan’s economy is shrinking and a recession looks ‘all but inevitable’
        By Jill Disis, CNN Business
        Updated 4:14 AM ET, Mon February 17, 2020

        Hong Kong (CNN Business)
        Japan’s economy is flirting with recession, and the novel coronavirus could push it over the edge.
        The world’s third-largest economy shrank 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to a government estimate released Monday. The decline from the third quarter is the biggest contraction since 2014.

        1. The Financial Times
          Japanese economy
          Japan on course for technical recession, economists warn
          Coronavirus impact looms as GDP shrinks at 6.3% rate after consumption tax rise

      2. Similar to Japan, the German economic slowdown predates the coronavirus outbreak.

        Business News
        February 13, 2020 / 11:27 PM / 3 days ago
        German economy ‘flirts with recession’ as fourth-quarter output stagnates
        Rene Wagner, Joseph Nasr

        BERLIN (Reuters) – The German economy stagnated in the fourth quarter due to weaker private consumption and state spending, data showed on Friday, renewing fears of a recession just as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives are preoccupied with a search for a new leader.

        1. It’s going to be like 9/11, where every company that failed to make its lofty earnings projections blamed the shortfall on the terror attack, overlooking the fact their fundamentals were deteriorating well before that.

      3. Send not to know
        For whom the bell tolls,
        It tolls for thee.

        — John Donne

        Opinion
        Outside In by David Dodwell
        Could the coronavirus epidemic trigger a China-led global recession?
        — As Chinese factories shut and people stay home and spend less, global manufacturing supply chains are breaking down, tourism is depressed, and commodity prices are falling. The US may no longer be the only economy capable of causing a global slowdown
        David Dodwell
        Published: 5:00pm, 7 Feb, 2020
        Updated: 10:26pm, 7 Feb, 2020

        It was back in 2007 that China’s then premier Wen Jiabao voiced alarm
        that the country’s growth was “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”. Since then, China’s growth has defiantly continued to surge, to the admiration of some, and the alarm of others. But there are signs we are veering into a perfect storm fuelled by the tariff war between the United States and China, technological conflict, US national security paranoias, unsustainable credit and debt growth inside the mainland, continuing struggles to resolve the harm inflicted by the 2008 global financial crisis, and, of course, the still-evolving coronavirus shock emanating from Wuhan.

        And before anyone crow too enthusiastically over China’s gathering storm, evidence seems strong that China’s shock may be shared by us all.

      4. Indian economy’s moment of reckoning
        By Devangshu Datta
        January 31, 2020

        The slowdown in the Indian economy is now serious enough for the International Monetary Fund to have indicated that global growth in 2020 will be affected. India’s poor performance will account for most of an expected 1-percentage-point reduction in the global GDP growth rate.

        The official stance is that India is in a “growth slowdown,” not a recession. The difference is more than semantics. A growth slowdown means the economy is growing, but at a slower rate than earlier. A recession means the economy is shrinking.

  4. ‘Governments around the world are loading up on debt, taking advantage of record-low borrowing costs to extend a long economic expansion and invest for future challenges. Economists warned a decade ago that pushing public debt above about 90% of gross domestic product could hurt growth and increase the risk of crises.’

    ‘Now they aren’t so sure. In a world of ultralow interest rates, some say higher public debt levels are feasible, even desirable. If sovereign-bond yields remain below economic growth rates, governments should be able to issue debt without having to pay for it later, argue economists including Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.’

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-high-should-government-debt-go-economists-cant-agree-11581865200

    1. Governments around the world are loading up on debt

      The current ruling class in my little burg wanted to borrow $100M and go on a spending spree, building a second rec center, a new library, etc. They wanted to bulldoze a perfectly good fire station and build a new one, instead of expanding it.

      Voters shot those props down. The mayor and city council expressed their grave disappointment at the voter’s decisions. Curiously, they were all reelected (I did not vote for a single incumbent). I’m sure they’ll be back to ask for that money again this November.

    2. “If sovereign-bond yields remain below economic growth rates, governments should be able to issue debt without having to pay for it later, argue economists including Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.”

      “issue debt without having to pay for it later”

      😁

      So who was it that said such a stupid thing? Oh, lookie here; it’s the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

      I love this blog.

      😁

  5. Once it creeps past a few weeks, buyers begin to see your home as stale inventory and think they can get a discount. This happens — even here in Arlington!”

    But…but…I thought it was different here in Arlington. That’s what you told me when you sold me the shack, Suzanne.

    1. Even *I* said that Arlington is different. My guess is the Apple honeymoon has worn off as people figure out that those hi-paying jobs aren’t going to show up next week. It might be a few years. So housing has gone into waiting mode.

  6. From Arlington Now in Virginia.
    “You can’t time most markets and the housing market is no exception. ”

    “Buyers know what a home is worth; while they may be willing to overpay slightly, even that has its limits.”

    – I call BS on both counts. Realtor-speak.

    From WFAA in Texas.
    “Tom Hughes, a founding agent at Compass Real Estate in Dallas, said a lack of inventory is the biggest problem that agents face now in Highland Park, University Park, and Preston Hollow.”

    – See link, below.

    https://aaronlayman.com/2020/02/denton-texas-home-prices-record-highs-fed-liquidity/
    Denton Texas Home Prices Jump To Record Highs With Fed Liquidity

    “Affordability is already a problem in the DFW housing market, but Federal Reserve policies are making the situation even worse. As the Fed continues to fan the flames of asset price inflation, they are encouraging continued speculation in real estate markets while facilitating the depletion of affordable home inventory. The supply of homes in the Dallas-Fort Worth are dipped to 2.6 months. Available home inventory dropped 24 percent in Denton County to only 2.2 months of supply. The supply of homes in the City of Denton fell 18 percent to just 1.8 months of inventory.”

    “While many Realtors will no doubt cheer the latest numbers as fantastic news, that would be a rather short-sighted view of the picture. What we just experienced with DFW real estate in January was a facsimile of a normal housing market. It was another reminder that U.S. housing markets are undeniably attached to Federal Reserve monetary policy. The current housing market is as warped, flipped and manipulated as the latest Iowa Caucus results for the Democratic primary.”

    From Money.com.
    “Before 2013 you needed to make at least a 5% down payment to qualify for a conventional mortgage — a loan not backed by a special government program — but that changed when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rolled out the Conventional 97 loan program. ‘These loans were started as first-time home buyer loans, but now they’re available to all home buyers,’ says Sheinin.”

    – “20% down? We don’t need no stinkin’ 20% down!” (channeling Mel Watt). If you’re losing the game, just change the rules (e.g. distressed bank assets during and after the GFC: “mark-to-market” now “mark-to-myth”). DTI ratio concerns? Not a problem. “We’re from the government and we’re here to help.”

    – Debt is not wealth, but it’s being marketed as such. I’m still seeing house flipping commercials on TV and so we’re not there yet.

    – Extend and pretend. The end result will still be the same, it’s just pushed out into the future somewhere. Demand pulled forward still leaves an air pocket as “the now” buyers consume “the later” market, but that’s somebody else’s problem, right?

    1. ‘New York is an ‘honest market’

      Yeah, that’s why they have a 6 year supply of new, unsold airboxes held off the MLS.

      1. New York is an ‘honest market’

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuFScoO4tb0
        Billy Joel – Honesty (Official Video)
        40,922,242 views • Oct 2, 2009

        If you search for tenderness
        it isn’t hard to find.
        You can have the love you need to live.
        But if you look for truthfulness
        You might just as well be blind.
        It always seems to be so hard to give.

        Honesty is such a lonely word.
        Everyone is so untrue.
        Honesty is hardly ever heard.
        And mostly what I need from you.

        I can always find someone
        to say they sympathize.
        If I wear my heart out on my sleeve.
        But I don’t want some pretty face
        to tell me pretty lies.
        All I want is someone to believe.

        Honesty is such a lonely word.
        Everyone is so untrue.
        Honesty is hardly ever heard.
        And mostly what I need from you.

        1. Billy Joel’s record company forced him to delete the last stanzas of the song, which went like this:

          Suzanne tells me housing prices
          Are always going higher;
          But when I visit the HBB
          I see that Realtors are liars

      2. I think every city/town/village in America has decent number of houses/condos held off so the price doesn’t drop too much. SF, Bay Area, LA, NYC being the most dishonest of them all.

        1. And Seattle. The Seattle PI condo report (by UHS) always mentions “this inventory # doesn’t include the hundreds of unsold airboxes hidden from the public” except they don’t put it that way.

    2. From the Denton link… I realized this is coming from a realtor …

      The real estate market will eventually have to pay for the Fed’s continued policy errors. How that translates is anyone’s guess. It’s not a question of if, but when those consequences rear their ugly head.

      But I doubt more than 1 in 20 .. if that .. will heed the warnings and behave like an ant instead of a grasshopper.

    3. Home Prices Jump To Record Highs With Fed Liquidity

      And Janet Trollface Yellen told us last week that the Fed stands armed and ready with QE. Why do no reporters ever ask why we’re still using QE 12 years after the so-called “crisis?”

  7. Oh dear…one of China’s largest developers just schlonged previous buyers to the tune of 25% by slashing the prices of new skybox flats as coronavirus takes its toll on China’s housing bubble. If you stamp your little feet while in quarantine, will anybody but the downstairs neighbor hear you?

    https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3050930/china-evergrande-slashes-prices-all-new-flats-quarter

    China Evergrande slashes prices of new flats by a quarter as coronavirus leaves developers struggling with plunging house sales

    One of China’s largest developers will slash the prices of all its new flats by a quarter in what it says is the biggest ever nationwide price cut, as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to derail China’s all-important housing market.

    China Evergrande, the country’s third biggest builder by value, said it will kick off a one-and-a-half-month campaign offering discounts of up to 25 per cent at all of its projects across the country.

    The company, chaired by China’s third-richest person, Xu Jiayin, said in a statement that “to cope with the changes of the new period, Evergrande will offer special big discounts at all of our projects, starting from February 18.”

  8. An epic rant from a Chinese lady on YouTube against the corrupt, mendacious CCP. If the coronavirus has done anything, it has been to open the eyes of tens of millions of Chinese as to the true malign character of their Communist overlords. Is China approaching pre-revolutionary conditions? I don’t know, but notwithstanding ABQ Dan’s boosterism, a Chinese housing bubble bust and wipeout of millions of “investors” could be the impetus for mass disaffection turning to anti-government unrest among the populace.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot1ejwUeFpI

  9. The Big Government has messed up everything. The Politicans betrayed US Citizens and it’s just a matter of undoing that treason and bringing the USA back to what it was suppose to be, a rule of law Constitution protected Republic.

    When you hear Commies talk about all these so called rights you have, it’s just the way Commies justify a overtaking of the Government and private industry.

    Sanders grassroots movement has caught mostly the ear of people under 45 who were softened up by Commie professors.

    The deep State is left winged and we see by Trump that they are a force in themselves for Government control . It’s really mind-blowing because the true colors are coming out in every way by the election of Trump.

    Of course the Globalist teamed up with the Commies to achieve their goals. But now the Commies want to eat their Globalist partners to usher in Communist takeover. It really bizarre to watch everyone flipping out.

        1. Agree. I’d rather than Bloomberg’s money to go into the hands of his staff and TV stations and paper makers and event venues and a thousand other small businesses, than to be left to his kids to be squandered.

      1. Billionaires are greedy almost by definition. When it is a small part of his overall wealth he truly misses it.

    1. Housing!

      Housing Market Op-ed
      Published: February 10, 2020 5:30 AM UTC
      Coronavirus Threat Set to Trigger a Massive U.S. Housing Market Crash
      Chinese customers could pull out of the U.S. housing market thanks to coronavirus, which could weaken demand and cause a crash.
      Author: Harsh Chauhan
      Coronavirus
      A financial pullback from Chinese investors could mean a lasting impact on the U.S. housing market due to their considerable financial might. | Source: Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP
      — The U.S. housing market’s good days could come to an end thanks to coronavirus.
      — Chinese investors have played a key role in propping up the market.
      — They could take away billions of dollars worth of demand thanks to the epidemic.

      A low mortgage rate environment and the lack of inventories have been tailwinds for the U.S. housing market over the past year. But the coronavirus epidemic is one big threat that could cause the U.S. housing market bubble to burst at last.

      1. I don’t see how this virus panic will affect the US housing market. It may affect trade.
        Yeah, Chinese investors, but people with serious money will be completely unaffected by this.

        I get it, everyone is looking for the next pin to burst the housing bubble, this ain’t it.

        I am in Colorado Springs, houses have risen 12-15% each year for the last 5 years. There are no Chinese buyers snapping up houses here. Completely unsustainable but the Coronavirus is not going to have anything to do with the inevitable decline.

        Something that can’t go on forever, won’t.

        Six months from now no one will be talking about Coronavirus

        1. Six months from now

          Like you, all the rest of us are just guessing. If we do go into a recession, I think it started before the outbreak in China but it would be a great scapegoat. People never like to admit they might be at fault.

          One thing that is happening that could lead to good outcomes is the mention of how fragile Globalism has made us.

        2. There are no Chinese buyers snapping up houses here.

          Have you considered a knock-on effect? Chinese buyers in CA and the CA exodus.

          1. The only California exodus that affects us is Californians relocating to Colorado, driving up housing prices and ruining our state with the same politics that destroyed California. Chinese or no Chinese the market here keeps going up.

            Californians will keep fleeing California weather the Chinese are in the market or not. Like I said, 6 months from no one will be talking about Coronavirus, flights will resume and the Chinese will be back in the market.

      2. China’s property investment market back to earth
        The disconnect between China’s investment and occupier markets has become less sustainable since the outbreak hit an already vulnerable economy, though some investors will take heart from the prospect of more aggressive stimulus measures
        Nicholas Spiro
        Published: 4:00pm, 10 Feb, 2020
        Updated: 10:29pm, 10 Feb, 2020

        One of the buzzwords in global capital markets these days is “disconnect”.
        Asset prices, and sentiment in stock markets in particular, have become detached from underlying fundamentals. The most conspicuous example is the persistent rise
        in the benchmark S&P 500 equity index – which currently stands at a record high – in the face of the economic shock from China’s draconian efforts to contain the rapid spread of the deadly new coronavirus

        In China itself, the disconnect within the country’s commercial real estate market is just as pronounced, if not more.

        Long before the coronavirus outbreak grabbed the headlines, the Chinese commercial property investment market and the occupational market appeared to be in parallel worlds.

        1. China’s property investment market back to earth

          A property market should never leave earth to begin with. That’s yer first fawkin’ clue somethin’ just ain’t right.

  10. Saw this on another site, doesn’t exactly jibe with the 2% death rate:

    Chang Kai, 55 years olf, a director in Hubei, he spent his career in preserving traditional Chinese opera. His father passed away at the third day of Chinese New Year, his mother passed away six days, him and his sister both passed away in Feb 14.

    His wife is also infected, so far her condition is ok.

    His son is studying in UK currently.

    I am not a professional translator, but I think people should read about his last words. How many tragedies we don’t know? The death of Chinese people is not just a number.

    Director Chang Kai worte beautifully in the classic Chinese style so I can only translate the meaning of them.

    Translation:

    At Chinese New Year‘s eve, I cancelled dinner reservation at a fancy hotel according to public policies.

    I cooked a dinner at home for my wife and our parents, we all had a great time.

    Little did I know, a nightmare has arrived. First day of new year, my old man was having a fever with coughing, he had trouble breathing. Took him to mutiple hospitals and was told there’s no vacancy, no matter how hard we tried to get help, we still couldnt get my dad into a hospital.

    We were disappointed, we went home. Couple days later, there’s nothing we could do, my father passed away in a not peaceful way. Under such tragedy, my mom‘s mind and body were destroyed, she was infected too and passed away not long after.

    While talking care of my parents, the virus also infected me and my wife. We went to many hospitals, asking begging for treatments, yet we are just nobody. Now our conditions are severe, we‘ve missed the best time to get treatments.

    Now I am at my last breath, I want to tell my friends and my son in UK: in my whole life, I‘ve been a good son, a responsible father and a loving husband, I am an honest man! Goodbye, to those who love me and the ones I love.

    1. The coronavirus is showing the true malign, cynical, deceptive face of the Chinese Communist Party, but is also showing how the human spirit can triumph in even the most soul-crushing circumstances and adversity.

      1. There was a video posted where a woman was screaming in her apartment and showing her entire family including kids laying dead. There were like 4 or 5 bodies.

        1. Do you think they get included with the official death count (1,770 as of yesterday).

          The count seems suspiciously low in light of all the personal anecdotes of entire families dying off.

          1. The Financial Times
            Coronavirus
            Coronavirus latest: WHO cautions over figures showing slowdown in infections

            Live
            Coronavirus
            China stifles foreign internet to control coronavirus coverage
            Government attacks on VPN services make it more difficult to access restricted sites

          2. I wouldn’t be shocked if the real numbers are an order of magnitude higher than what is officially reported.

          3. order of magnitude higher

            A multiple was tacitly acknowledged in the Global Times on February 8.

          4. “…order of magnitude higher…”

            If true, this will eventually come out, and it will be a SHTF moment when it does.

          5. Well one thing’s for sure, the numbers they’re reporting are a fantasy. Everybody who has looked at the “perfect” graph smells major bullsheet.

      2. That account of the Chinese family is really sad. The best hope is that the Chinese people rebel against their Communist overlord Government .

      3. Yes. However that is because they hid the epidemic for months. However the present numbers coming out may be accurate. The Chinese now seem to be finding and identifying the mild cases. 80 percent of the cases are mild and usually resolved around 14 days after exposure. The numbers who died or just recovered without being counted will probably never be known. However it does not mean the draconian measures are not working now.

        1. However the present numbers coming out may be accurate.

          Probably less chance than any randomly picked number.

  11. And what do “downflated” virus numbers have to do with the US Housing market?

    Why does everything, every discussion have to come back to this stupid virus? Let it go.

    1. It has everything to do with the housing market and the economy in general. Not since the Spanish Flu has there been such an international concern over a spreading disease. The economic repercussions could prove to be the most impactful in our lifetimes.

    2. The coronavirus housing market crater stories won’t start showing up in the MSM until mid-summer.

      Patience, my good friend!

      1. I stand corrected. After a brief search, it is apparent that coronavirus impacts on housing are already widely documented in the MSM.

        EXCLUSIVE
        Coronavirus leaves Sydney’s prestige market sick
        Lucy Mackentwitter
        Prestige Property Reporter Feb 8, 2020

        Sydney’s prestige housing market is expected to be one of the casualties of the coronavirus after the traditional influx of high-end shoppers from China are forced to stay home.

        The short-term loss of visitors due to the federal government’s ban on non-Australian citizens travelling here from China and longer-term economic fallout from the contagion follows this summer’s disastrous bushfire season, which had already impacted on Australia’s standing as an international housing market.

        The Lunar New Year is typically the busiest time of year for visitors from China, and agents on both sides of Sydney Harbour have long made the most of the annual holiday by timing the launch of their high-end listings accordingly.

        “This has forced our best buyers to stay away,” said Rob Klaric, of property advisory The Property Expert.

      2. Housing or not, my guess is that in about 6 weeks we’ll start seeing temporary shortages. We can do without scrapbooking supplies or summer swimsuits, but medical supplies and especially drugs are going to be a problem.

    3. Fox Business
      Real Estate
      Published February 10
      Coronavirus may whack New York, California luxury real estate markets
      The high-end U.S. real estate market is already sucking wind amid an inventory glut
      By Brittany De Lea FOXBusiness

      While the luxury real estate market in the U.S. is already facing headwinds, fear stemming from the spread of the Coronavirus could exacerbate challenges.

      The U.S. has suspended entry into the U.S. of foreign nationals who have visited China within the past 14 days in an attempt to stem the spread of the virus – which will likely impact the U.S. housing sector.

      “You have less incentive to buy real estate if it’s unclear if and when you’ll get to visit the property,” Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said in a statement. “In the short term, the virus could dampen [luxury] sales further.”

      1. “You have less incentive to buy real estate if it’s unclear if and when you’ll get to visit the property,”

        Never mind that people preoccupied with life-and-death concerns are not necessarily all that eager to gamble millions of dollars on high risk gambles, such as overseas luxury real estate speculation.

        1. “You have less incentive to buy real estate if it’s unclear if and when you’ll get to visit the property, you’re dead

    4. A bitter Chinese woman who lost her father to the coronavirus wrote on social media that: “The government made a huge mistake and now everyone is suffering because of their misconduct.”

      When the Fed’s Everything Bubble bursts and wipes away trillions in fictitious Yellen Bux wealth from 401(k) plans and housing valuations, millions of Americans are going to be saying the same thing.

      1. The government made a huge mistake And just what was/were the mistakes the CCP in China made? Not imposing quarantines sooner? Not conjuring up a non-existent treatment beforehand? Etc.

    5. Unlike SARS, the highly contagious Wuhan coronavirus spreads through asymptomatic transmission, during an incubation period that can last upwards of fourteen days. This fact will make it far more difficult to contain than SARS was. In light of this difference, and given that the SARS outbreak lasted nine months, conjecture that this outbreak will be short lived seems quite optimistic.

    6. News & Media
      February 7, 2020
      Coronavirus Could Impact Real Estate
      Mortgage interest rates dropped because of virus fears, and the Chinese buyers who propel the luxury market have at least temporarily pulled back.

      CHICAGO – The U.S. housing market is feeling the impact of the new coronavirus outbreak from China. Mortgage interest rates have dropped because of it, and the luxury sector has seen Chinese buyers, who have been propelling that market, quickly vanish from it.

      “China has been the most important source of foreign demand for real estate,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). “The upper-end market can expect to be softer as a result.”

      International buyers from China spent $13.4 billion on U.S. property from April 2018 to May 2019, according to NAR research. Chinese buyers have had the largest presence in California and New York markets. While Chinese buyers are interested in the Florida market, they make up a smaller percentage of the state’s international sales than they do in states along the West Coast.

      “In the short term, the virus could dampen [luxury] sales further,” says Danielle Hale, realtor.com’s chief economist.

    7. How the coronavirus might impact Canada’s housing market
      Haider-Moranis Bulletin
      Murtaza Haider and Stephen Moranis
      February 12, 2020 9:55 AM EST
      Last Updated February 13, 2020 12:23 PM EST

      Businesses all over the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the coronavirus’s impact on various markets as the death count and number of affected individuals mounts.

      Could the coronavirus adversely impact property markets in China and beyond? The answer mostly depends on how quickly the virus is prevented from spreading within China and elsewhere. In the meantime, the uncertainty about the potential for contagion is keeping chief risk officers awake at night.

      The current outbreak is caused by a new strain in the family of viruses characterized as coronavirus, but a similar epidemic in 2003 caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) impacted Hong Kong and many other countries, including Canada.

    8. “Why does everything, every discussion have to come back to this stupid virus?”

      You seem to be missing some important aspects of the Covid-19 outbreak. As you and others have pointed out, the official case and case fatality counts are low compared to the plain old flu. However, there are at least three key complications:

      1) Uncertainty: After only six weeks since the first confirmed cases were announced, the death toll has surpassed the nine month total for the SARS coronavirus outbreak by a factor of two. Nobody can predict how much farther and worse things get from here, but it is already clearly worse than SARS, after a fraction of the outbreak duration.
      2) Containment: Since only those displaying symptoms could spread SARS, it was efficiently extinguished by quarantine measures. The spread of Covid-19 by asymptomatic carriers makes it far more difficult and costly to contain, and may even make containment impossible.
      3) Ugliness: You may have heard of the Keynesian Beauty Contest, where it is not the beauty of the contestants that matters to the outcome, but rather the judges’ opinions about the contestants’ beauty? What we are witnessing in real time is a Keynesian Ugly Contest, where it is not the objective aspects of the outbreak, such as numbers of cases or case fatalities, that matter most, but rather the societal perception of and response to the situation. With tens of millions of Chinese citizens in lockdown, the policy response threatens to cripple the world’s second largest national economy.

      1. What the article below seems to miss is the chaotic cross current created by preemptive central bank bailouts.

        Business Insider
        The coronavirus could cripple China’s economy for longer than Wall Street wants to believe
        Linette Lopez
        Feb 16, 2020, 5:28 AM
        Coronavirus, China, security guard in a face mask stands in a glass cubicle on an empty street in Beijing.
        The coronavirus’ effects could last longer than expected. AP
        Opinion banner
        — Wall Street is convincing itself that China will bounce back relatively quickly around the end of the first quarter, when it expects the coronavirus’ spread to be contained.
        — This is banker delusion. China’s economy is growing much more slowly than it was in 2003, when the SARS outbreak hit.
        — Plus, the financial sector is in much worse shape. It’s loaded with debt, and credit conditions are still deteriorating from bailouts last year. This will all make it much harder to fund struggling businesses and local governments.

  12. Chinese real estate bailout is underway…

    The Financial Times
    Don Weinland in Beijing February 15 2020
    Local governments across China have moved to cushion the blow of the coronavirus outbreak for highly indebted property developers which have been forced to freeze home sales during the crisis but still face $100bn in maturing bonds this year.

    Officials in Shenzhen, Xi’an and a number of other large cities have told developers that they can delay payments on land and taxes in order to improve the companies’ cash flows, after more than 100 cities banned sales of new housing units as part of their efforts to stem the spread of the disease.

    Restrictions on presales will also be loosened, allowing the developers to raise cash from homes that are not yet completed.

    If the crisis drags on, the pause in activity could hit property developers hard, researchers say, and policy support from local officials could be crucial to maintaining cash flows in the coming months as home sales suffer.

    Sales are in fact very bad and this could create [repayment] problems this year,” said Yan Yuejin, director of the E-House China Research and Development Institution in Shanghai. “But on the other hand, policy measures should be quite accommodative . . . If that’s the case then the pressure will be reduced.”

    Mr Yan noted that monetary policy was likely to continue to loosen this year, which would give developers access to emergency funding.

    1. policy measures should be quite accommodative . . .

      Hundreds of millions of Fang Nu living in lock down.

    1. LOL@ I have never purchased an Apple product, cheap Android for the win. I do own shares of AAPL now but am less than 40% in equities overall.

          1. I bought an Apple Newton in 1994, regretted it within a few days. It did teach me to avoid Apple products forevermore.

    2. The Financial Times
      Apple Inc
      Coronavirus forces Apple to warn over iPhone sales
      Disruption in China will cause worldwide fallout as supply chain stutters
      an hour ago

    3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-18/apple-s-outlook-cut-revives-questions-about-china-over-reliance?srnd=premium

      “Production snarls at Apple’s main iPhone-making base of Zhengzhou may extend well into the June quarter and possibly beyond. Foxconn’s Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. only started seasonal recruitment on Monday, weeks behind schedule, and it’s been severely hindered by new policies intended to curb the spread of Covid-19 on campus. One recruiter, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Bloomberg News that the company was only hiring new workers from the local Zhengzhou area, tightening restrictions and eliminating the vast majority of available labor pool.” (emphasis added)

  13. Most of the Westerdam passengers were released to travel to various other countries. Some 240 remain and are now not going anywhere since on woman was found to test positive after arriving in Kuala Lumpur. My two friends are among those not going anywhere.

  14. News of the toilet paper heist shows just how serious this outbreak has become.

    Cornering the market on toilet paper when diarrhea is rampant and trade is curtailed could be quite lucrative.

    Apple warns it will miss its quarterly revenue target due to the effects of the coronavirus outbreak
    Breaking
    Feel-good story surrounding MS Westerdam docking in Cambodia takes turn after passenger tests positive for coronavirus
    Amid Covid-19 panic, thieves make off with hundreds of rolls of toilet paper in Hong Kong

  15. Latest news from China is that a lady that works at the lab across the river from the wet market in Wuhan went on a big rant on social media accusing management there of being at fault for the virus escaping. She’ll disappear soon but it’s a big deal since she works there and her whole rant assumed it came from there as though it were common knowledge.

    1. As often seems to happen these days, there are two mutually exclusive versions of a story churning through the bifurcated MSM.

      The Financial Times
      Coronavirus
      Coronavirus was not genetically engineered in a Wuhan lab, says expert
      Scientist shoots down social media claims that have been circulating widely
      Images and B-roll related to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, also known as 2019-nCoV) that causes COVID-19. See related album, “MERS-CoV”
      Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, has rubbished rumours circulating on social media that the virus was created at a government institute © NIAID-RML
      Clive Cookson in Seattle February 13 2020

      A scientist at the forefront of an international effort to track the deadly coronavirus outbreak has shot down claims about the disease’s origins, including that it escaped from a Wuhan laboratory after being genetically engineered.

      Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, rubbished stories circulating on social media that Covid-19 was created at Wuhan Institute of Virology or elsewhere in China, rumours that prompted the World Health Organization to warn of an “infodemic” of false news on the outbreak.

      “There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find,” he said at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in Seattle. “The evidence we have is that the mutations [in the virus] are completely consistent with natural evolution.”

      One source of rumours was a paper posted by scientists in India claiming that short insertions in the viral genome had an “uncanny similarity” to HIV. Although the paper was quickly withdrawn, its allegations live on in social media.

      The research was “wrong on many levels,” said Dr Bedford, whose lab studies the evolution of viruses. The genes it shares with HIV are extremely short sequences naturally shared by other organisms and “repeated again and again throughout the tree of life.”

    2. Politics
      Tom Cotton keeps repeating a coronavirus conspiracy theory that was already debunked
      Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) on Sunday repeated a debunked conspiracy theory about coronavirus and Chinese bioresearch. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
      By Paulina Firozi
      Feb. 17, 2020 at 8:04 a.m. PST

      Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) repeated a fringe theory suggesting that the ongoing spread of a coronavirus is connected to research in the disease-ravaged epicenter of Wuhan, China.

      Cotton referenced a laboratory in the city, the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, in an interview on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” He said the lab was near a market some scientists initially thought was a starting point for the virus’s spread.

      “We don’t know where it originated, and we have to get to the bottom of that,” Cotton said. “We also know that just a few miles away from that food market is China’s only biosafety level 4 super laboratory that researches human infectious diseases.”

      1. Tom Cotton sits on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. I’d wager he has access to information WaPo doesn’t want you to know.

        1. I find the whole media bifurcation phenomenon strange and perplexing. It’s very hard to know what to believe sometimes.

          1. debunked conspiracy theories

            And how exactly has it been debunked? There are a number of scientific publications highlighting the abysmal biocontainment practices in China, some predating this outbreak, as well as showing that the wet market isn’t the likely source.

          2. This outbreak is exposing the weakest link in our global economy. How is challenging the MSM narrative deep state propaganda? The MSM is deep state propaganda. See, e.g., Operation Mockingbird.

          3. When evaluating sources, credibility and motivation should be questioned. Academic achievements and professional experience confer credibility, yet we are experiencing a challenge to this norm. At the same time, we overlook motivation in favor of credibility. Where does that leave us?!

          4. I’ve noticed that attorneys get more excited about conspiracy theories than the average bloke. I find them annoying, especially when they are oversold.

          5. I guess if you are getting paid millions of dollars, it makes sense why you might be willing to pimp propaganda.

            Steve Bannon is pushing debunked claims about the coronavirus that are linked to his billionaire benefactor
            Written by Madeline Peltz
            Published 02/06/20 11:04 AM EST

            Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon has pushed a debunked theory about the origins of the coronavirus in Wuhan, China on his daily radio broadcast War Room: Pandemic. The claim echoes fake news pushed by G News, a website that has reportedly paid him at least $1 million for consulting and offered him a position as senior editor.

            Since the new show began, Bannon has repeatedly pushed the false narrative that the coronavirus was leaked from a covert biological weapons program at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which includes a secure research facility where scientists study highly contagious and infectious diseases.

          6. A scientific background and critical thinking skills are detrimental to swallowing the MSM narrative.

          7. “At the same time, we overlook motivation in favor of credibility.”

            I deal regularly with people who are paid to lie in order to raise money or further a political agenda. So I tend to think first about motivation before evaluating credibility of statements or explanations.

            It is hard to get a man to understand something when his paycheck depends on his not understanding it.

            — Upton Sinclair

    3. being at fault for the virus escaping.’ if true its going to really piss off the world. They are probably going to burn all evidence at that LAB maybe even burn the LAB. And that women will probably die of corona virus.

  16. What are the symptoms of a coronavirus infection?

    From what I read, the fatalities are attributable to extreme damage to the lungs.

  17. Over 700 people in Washington under public health supervision due to coronavirus
    According to the department, 712 people are under supervision for the illness.
    CORONAVIRUS 2 hours ago
    Author: Kaitlin Riordan
    Published: 5:59 PM PST February 17, 2020
    Updated: 6:26 PM PST February 17, 2020

    SPOKANE, Wash. — Hundreds of people in Washington State are under public health supervision for coronavirus, according to the Washington State Department of Health.

    According to the department, 712 people are under supervision for the illness. These people are at risk of having been exposed to the virus and their health is being monitored by public health officials. The number also includes people who have been close to others that have confirmed laboratory cases of coronavirus, as well as people who have returned from China in the past 14 days.

  18. Any thoughts on what central bankers might try next if stocks insist on falling despite massive intervention?

    Asia stocks fall in early Tuesday trading as economic impact of coronavirus weighs on markets
    By MarketWatch
    Published: Feb 17, 2020 10:38 p.m. ET
    Share
    Associated Press
    Commuters ride in a quiet subway train during the morning rush hour in Beijing on Monday.

    Asia stocks opened to the downside Tuesday even as the coronavirus outbreak appeared to be slowing. Economists were predicting a hit to growth in Asia regardless of the improvement in the fight against the virus.

    China’s first-quarter gross domestic product may fall 2.5% from the fourth quarter of 2019 following the pause in economic activity caused by the coronavirus outbreak, Capital Economics estimates and warns that “a prolonged shutdown could mean lost output is never recovered.”

    The economic disruption is starting to spread to neighboring economies through supply chains, it says. CE notes that imports to Korea during the first ten days of this month fell by nearly 50% on year, the biggest fall since Asian financial crisis in 1997 and larger than the drop experienced at the height of the global financial crisis.

    Asian currencies were also falling against the dollar amid concerns over the economic impact from the coronavirus outbreak. Investors could remain cautious about adding more currency risk before assessing the depth of the economic fallout, AxiCorp says.

    1. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus
      Coronavirus latest: Asian stocks hit and Treasuries rally after Apple warning

      1. The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is great for both U.S. stocks and bonds.

        Go figure!

        How low can bond rates go?
        By Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business
        Updated 11:32 AM ET, Mon February 17, 2020
        Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the January 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, in Washington, DC on January 29, 2020. – The US central bank held its policy interest rate steady on Wednesday, but again said it is monitoring “global developments” to decide its next move. The Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee left the benchmark interest rate in the target range of 1.5 to 1.75 percent as expected, though it made no mention of the deadly virus outbreak in China which is feared to cause damage to the global economy.
        (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

        New York (CNN Business)
        Giddy investors in stocks have shrugged off worries about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global financial markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at new all-time highs Friday.
        But bond investors are far from euphoric.
        Yields on long-term bonds have been falling as of late. The 10-year US Treasury yield is now around 1.59% — down from 1.92% at the start of 2020 and well below its 52-week high of 2.76% from March 2019.
        That’s a sign that fixed income investors are nervous about the economy and are flocking to the safety of US bonds. Yields fall as demand for bonds (and their prices) rise.

        And there are growing expectations that the Federal Reserve might need to lower interest rates some time in 2020 instead of standing pat.

        “The Fed will be pushed to cut rates later this year. The global economy is not as strong as thought,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist with State Street Global Markets, in an interview with CNN Business.

      2. Note this development predates the coronavirus outbreak.

        The Financial Times
        Walmart Inc
        Walmart disappoints with weak sales volumes over Christmas

        Figures from world’s top retailer under scrutiny for slowdown signs in US consumer spending
        2 hours ago

  19. Gosh, I’d sure hate to be a greedy investor who overpaid for commercial real estate assuming I could gouge the retail establishments renting from me into perpetuity. Cuz if I’m forced to slash their rents to keep them from going under, my own optimistic cash-flow assumptions might have to be revisited, as schlong-shaped objects haunt my darkest fears.

    Hong Kong retailers stage unprecedented strike in 14 shopping centres to demand lifeline as foot traffic plunges amid coronavirus outbreak

    https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3051091/retailers-stage-unprecedented-strike-14-hong-kong-shopping-centres-plead

    Fifty retailers shut their fashion outlets, restaurants and cafes in Hong Kong on Tuesday in an unprecedented strike to demand rental cuts, as plunging foot traffic caused by months of anti-government protests and a coronavirus outbreak threatens to decimate the industry.

    Confectioner Lady M, the French sportswear brand Lacoste distributed by Crocodile and Singapore’s fashion brand Club 21 are among nearly 200 shops that have declared a “no business” day across 14 shopping centres in Hong Kong. Some of the shops said they would be shut for 24 hours, while others announced temporary closures without stating a time limit.

    “The last seven months of losses have become unbearable for many of us,” said Ashley Micklewright, president and chief executive at Bluebell Group, a distributor of luxury brands including Moschino, Davidoff and Anya Hindmarch. “The impact on the business and traffic is far worse than anything we have ever experienced.”

  20. Inside the coronavirus epidemic’s impact on US real estate
    Retailers and international student renters could feel initial impacts
    TRD NATIONAL
    Feb. 05, 2020 04:39 PM
    By Kevin Sun
    The impact of China’s coronavirus outbreak on real estate in the U.S. remains muted for now

    When real estate broker Sunanne Zhu brought a group of Chinese clients to visit a Manhattan luxury apartment tower last week, the building’s staff had some concerns.

    In the wake of the Chinese government’s decision to put the central city of Wuhan on lockdown, and following reports of coronavirus cases in Seattle and Chicago, many of the prospective renters — mostly international students — had taken the precaution of wearing medical face masks while in public.

    “There was a bit of a misunderstanding, but we cleared it up quickly,” Zhu said. “In America, when you see someone with a face mask, you think it’s because they’re sick. But in our understanding, you wear a face mask to avoid getting infected by others.”

    1. Commentary
      If coronavirus fears escalate, Wells Fargo warns 10-year Treasury yields could fall another 30%
      Published Sun, Feb 2 2020 5:01 PM EST
      Stephanie Landsman
      Coronavirus fears will drive Treasury yields even lower, Wells Fargo predicts

      Wells Fargo Securities’ Michael Schumacher expects the bond rush to intensify.

      According to the firm’s global head of rate strategy, coronavirus fears will drive more investors into the U.S. Treasury market as a safe haven play and drive yields sharply lower.

      The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is already down 22% so far this year.

      “Our big concern is that investors get more and more nervous,” Schumacher told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “We would say that probably the last 25 to 30 basis points mainly in the 10-year is largely due to the virus.”

      On Friday, the 10-year yield hit a low of 1.50% — its lowest level since early September.

      “It’s really a function of the news flow coming out of China in the near-term,” he said.

      If the coronavirus situation continues to deteriorate, Schumacher warns 10-year yields could fall at least another 30%.

    2. 30-year Treasury yield breaks below 2% as coronavirus disrupts supply chains
      By Sunny Oh
      Published: Feb 18, 2020 8:06 a.m. ET
      Apple says it will not be able to meet second-quarter guidance due to the outbreak

      U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday after investors saw how the COVID-19 epidemic was preventing companies from restoring production to full-capacity after the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays, as the viral outbreak keeps workers at home and unable to head into factories.

      What are Treasurys doing?

      The 10-year Treasury note yield (TMUBMUSD10Y, -2.52%) slumped 4.4 basis points to 1.544%, while the 2-year note rate (TMUBMUSD02Y, -2.29%) was down 2.5 basis points to 1.399%. The 30-year bond yield (TMUBMUSD30Y, -2.14%) slipped 5.1 basis points to 1.992%.

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