You’ll See A Lot Of Complete Houses But No Curtains

1. Lots a gluts out there.

   ‘one year average prices plummeted by up to 25 per cent in tony West Van communities such as Chartwell, Upper Caulfield, Queens, Dundarave and the British Properties’

   It’s just money laundering, so what if the price falls, we were told.

   ‘With West Vancouver’s assessed prices falling by 16 per cent this year and 12 per cent last year, he is concerned about the financial well-being of homeowners who recently ‘stretched themselves’ to buy and now have large mortgages on properties that have declined in value’

   Well there is that…

   1. BTW, Kenya, South Africa, Vancouver and Sydney all at one time or the other had the hottest residential real estate markets on the planet. Wa Happened?

      1. Given how South Africa is confiscating farm properties, why would anyone buy property there?

         1. to pay property taxes to government
            to pay interest to bank
            to bring misery in their own lives

            1. You’re completely right. But, I spent my 21st year in Cape Town and it is heaven on earth. As long as you avoid the crushing poverty all around you. It kills your buzz. I am tempted to buy the dip, but of course I can always just get a hotel there whenever I want.

   2. Vancouver realtor David Hutchinson

      “…he is concerned about the financial well-being of homeowners who recently ‘stretched themselves’ to buy and now have large mortgages on properties that have declined in value…”

      Really David Hutchinson?

      Your concerned? That’s a LOL

      Running out of suckers (er.. clients) to foist your REIC ‘Real Estate only goes up’ mantra?

      1. “Your concerned? That’s a LOL”

         Is there some sort of recourse?

         Did he leverage his own family members?

2. Bradenton Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Retirement/Vacation Property Demand Plummets As Boomer Demographic Dies Off

   https://www.movoto.com/bradenton-beach-fl/market-trends/

   As a noted economist said, “I can ask $50k for my run down 10 year old Chevy truck but where is the buyer at that price? So it is with all depreciating asset like houses and cars.”

   1. Hey we’re not dead yet!

      1. Monty Python: Bring Out Your Dead
         youtube.com/watch?v=Sh8mNjeuyV4

3. ‘A surge in the number of homes hitting the market in February — up over 60 per cent from January — pushed days on market down, said SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher’

   The Australian REIC is the biggest pack of lying dogs that exist. Plus the people there are apparently Pavlovian shack gamblers eager to join in. I can find article about FBs, oversupply right next to quotes about multiple offers, etc. Their entire media is so compromised its hard to know what’s going on, like China. So I don’t waste a lot of time on it.

   1. True. So true. But I fear my countrymen are Pavlovian dogs as well. It seems we are in for the double-top.

4. Vancouver, WA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Housing Glut Drives Prices And Rents Lower

   https://www.zillow.com/vancouver-wa-98684/home-values/

   *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

   A noted economist stated, “A housing ‘recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.”

5. Any thoughts on whether or when the wicked volatility currently whipsawing Wall Street will show up in housing prices?

   1. Houses aren’t as fungible as stocks.

      1. Right.

         So we’re talking a few months from now?

         1. Houses aren’t as overvalued as stocks, except in a few locations where they have already started to fall.

            The question in each case is whether the government will be able to keep asset prices inflated by low interest rates and other means.

            While stocks might crash if they can’t, aging Boomers might just refuse to “give away” their houses to Millennials at prices the latter can afford. It may take the Grim Reaper to housing prices to correct.

            1. It may take the Grim Reaper

               They don’t all have to give their houses away for price discovery, just a few. Job loss, divorce, retirement all do the same thing.

            2. Maybe. But a panic will probably cause the Boomers to sell stocks, but NOT sell houses.

               “Maybe we can’t afford to retire to The Villages after all.”

            3. Time will tell! You don’t actually need any change in seller behavior (the supply side). A desiccation of demand will do the trick.

            4. The radio told me I can sell my life insurance policy to fund my retirement. What a deal!

            5. It may take the Grim Reaper to housing prices to correct.

               I think I heard a scratching at the door…

            6. Right on point Carl.

   2. Considering that many housing markets have been puking for years now, while stocks peaked only 2 weeks ago, maybe the relationship is in reverse?

6. “Vancouver realtor David Hutchinson’ says it was ‘completely predictable’ that high-end neighbourhoods in West Vancouver, the west side of Vancouver and Richmond would see their bubbles burst. ‘That’s where all the speculation and flipping was occurring. There was a frenzy.’ Veteran city Coun. Craig Cameron said West Van’s housing prices had been driven up by a ‘massive speculation frenzy’ that began about five years ago, which has left an estimated 10 per cent of dwellings empty. With West Vancouver’s assessed prices falling by 16 per cent this year and 12 per cent last year, he is concerned about the financial well-being of homeowners who recently ‘stretched themselves’ to buy and now have large mortgages on properties that have declined in value.”

   Hmmmm where did they get that idea???

   “‘The losses reflect the urgency or desperation among some of the city’s homeowners, given the constant flow of bad news,’ said Martin Wong, a sales manager at Midland Realty. ‘Some of the home owners feel that the prospects are not good so they want to sell quickly, especially amid the current epidemic.’”

   He who panic first, panic best!

   1. Who would have thought we’d ever see the B word (except for saying it doesn’t exist) in the Vancouver Sun?

   2. “…especially amid the current epidemic…”

      An epidemic of greed and stupidity is the real danger among these ‘homeowners’

7. Are you interested in purchasing some cruise ship tickets at a deep discount?

   1. Eh, (chewing on a carrot like Bugs) … no.

   2. Here’s part of an email I received this morning…

      Save up to 86% on Unsold Cruise Cabins!
      VacationsToGo.com

      Mar 5 at 6:42 AM

      For today’s newsletter, we’ve negotiated fantastic offers with Princess, Norwegian, MSC, Seabourn and Paul Gauguin Cruises. In addition to deep discounts, these offers may include free amenities or shipboard credits, which are as good as cash on the ship and can be used toward onboard purchases not covered in the cruise fare, like shore excursions and Internet packages. Please note that some rates on our site may not be eligible for free amenities or shipboard credits.

      Princess is offering Vacations To Go customers big discounts, including exclusive pricing on a variety of voyages to Alaska, Europe and more — save up to 56%. Also receive shipboard credits of up to $385 per cabin on select departures. Book by March 17. See dates and prices.

      Norwegian is offering our customers huge discounts of up to 85%, as well as exclusive shipboard credits of up to $250 per cabin on select departures. Plus, on select sailings receive all of the following perks on cabins booked at eligible rates: 1) unlimited open bar for two, 2) a specialty dining package that includes up to five meals for two guests at select dining venues, 3) up to 250 minutes of Internet, 4) a shore excursion credit of $50 per cabin, per port (not including embarkation port), or 5) friends and family sail free as third/fourth passengers in the cabin on select departures (port fees and taxes are additional). Book by March 31. See dates and prices.

      MSC has slashed rates by up to 77% for our customers, with new discounts on a variety of last-minute sailings in the Caribbean and Europe. See dates and prices.

      Seabourn has provided discounts of up to 65% for our customers, as well as shipboard credits of up to $750 per suite on select sailings. The upfront price of a six-star Seabourn vacation includes open bars, fine wines at lunch and dinner and gratuities. See dates and prices.

      Paul Gauguin Cruises is offering Vacations To Go customers discounts of up to 50% on its cruises of South Pacific islands. Also get shipboard credits of up to $200 per cabin. See dates and prices.

      As always, these offers are for new bookings only and subject to availability. Restrictions may apply, and some free amenities and shipboard credits may apply only to eligible rates. Past guests of some cruise lines may see better rates on select sailings.

      1. When I was in Alaska in 2001, I drove to Seward one day.

         ‘Owing to its position at the southern terminus of the Alaska Railroad and well-developed road links to Anchorage and the rest of the Kenai Peninsula, Seward is both a major northern end-port for several major cruise ship lines that host Alaskan cruises, such as Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, Holland America, and Celebrity Cruises, and a common destination for general Alaskan tourism.’

         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seward,_Alaska

         Those cruise ships are freaking enormous. I’ve read some cost $500 millions to build.

         1. “Those cruise ships are freaking enormous.”

            $o i$ the $tate ferry’$, that provide cargo & $upplie$ (semi.trucks with good$) to the hamlet$ & village$ in the interior hinterland$.

            Amazing how many truck$ fit into to those floatin’ boat$!

         2. Those cruise ships are freaking enormous.

            They make the old “Love Boat” generation of cruise ships look tiny

            Then:
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pacific_Princess_1987.jpg

            Now:

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Princess#/media/File:Grand_Princess_(ship,_1998)_IMO_9104005,_in_Split,_2011-10-13.jpg

            1. “They make the old “Love Boat” generation of cruise ships look tiny”

               I remember when Cathy Lee would take her girlz out for a walk and air the ship would start listing!

      2. Will they charge extra for the 14-21 day quarantine on the boat? Is the food included for that time?

         1. If this is a Chinese cruise ship, can I get the bat soup to go?

8. “No Worrie$!” + “Got Debt$ ?” = “$oft.landing$!”

   Global financial cri$is:

   The $eeds of the next debt crisi$
   With debt level$ already at a record high, coronaviru$ raises the risk of a credit crunch in a world of low intere$t rate$

   FT |March 4, 2020 | by John Plender, in London

   The shock that coronavirus has wrought on markets across the world coincides with a dangerous financial backdrop marked by spiralling global debt. According to the Institute of International Finance, a trade group, the ratio of global debt to gross domestic product hit an all-time high of over 322 per cent in the third quarter of 2019, with total debt reaching close to $253tn. The implication, if the virus continues to spread, is that any fragilities in the financial system have the potential to trigger a new debt crisis.

   Despite the decline in bond yields and borrowing costs since the markets took fright, financial conditions have tightened for weaker corporate borrowers. Their access to bond markets has become more difficult. After Tuesday’s 50 basis-point cut, the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate of 1.0-1.5 per cent is still higher than the 0.8 per cent yield on the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury note. This inversion of the yield curve could intensify the squeeze

   This is particularly important because much of the debt build-up since the global financial crisis of 2007-08 has been in the non-bank corporate sector where the current disruption to supply chains and reduced global growth imply lower earnings and greater difficulty in servicing debt. In effect, the coronavirus raises the extraordinary prospect of a credit crunch in a world of ultra-low and negative interest rates.

   Policymakers in advanced countries have over the past week made clear their readiness to pursue an active fiscal and monetary response to the disruption caused by the virus. Yet such policy activism carries a longer-term risk of entrenching the dysfunctional monetary policy that contributed to the original financial crisis, as well as exacerbating the dangerous debt overhang that the global economy now faces.

   The risks have been building in the financial system for decades. From the late 1980s, central banks — and especially the Fed — conducted what came to be known as “asymmetric monetary policy”, whereby they supported markets when they plunged but failed to damp them down when they were prone to bubbles. Excessive risk taking in banking was the natural consequence.

   The central banks’ quantitative easing since the crisis, which involves the purchase of government bonds and other assets, is, in effect, a continuation of this asymmetric approach. The resulting safety net placed under the banking system is unprecedented in scale and duration. Continuing loose policy has brought forward debt financed private expenditure, thereby elongating an already protracted cycle in which extraordinary low or negative interest rates appear to be less and less effective in stimulating demand.

   This, he argues, is because unconventional central bank policies may “simply set the stage for the next boom and bust cycle, fuelled by ever declining credit standards and ever expanding debt accumulation”.

   A comparison of today’s circumstances with the period before the financial crisis is instructive. As well as a big post-crisis increase in government debt, an important difference now is that the debt focus in the private sector is not on property and mortgage lending, but on loans to the corporate sector. A recent OECD report says that at the end of December 2019 the global outstanding stock of non-financial corporate bonds reached an all-time high of $13.5tn, double the level in real terms against December 2008.

   The rise is most striking in the US, where the Fed estimates that corporate debt has risen from $3.3tn before the financial crisis to $6.5tn last year.

   Given that Google parent Alphabet, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft alone held net cash at the end of last year of $328bn, this suggests that much of the debt is concentrated in old economy sectors where many companies are less cash generative than Big Tech. Debt servicing is thus more burdensome.

   History matters here. The one period in the last 200 years when banking was relatively free of crises was between the 1930s and early 1970s. This was because the regulatory response to the 1929 crash and the subsequent banking failures was so draconian that banking was turned into a low-risk, utility-like business. It was the progressive removal of this regulatory straitjacket, which began in the 1970s, that paved the way for the property based crises of the mid-1970s, the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, more property based crises of the early 1990s and the rest.

   While there has been a plethora of reforms since 2008 — though conspicuously not including the removal of the privileged tax status of debt relative to equity — the operations of the likes of Goldman Sachs, Barclays or Deutsche Bank could scarcely be called utility-like. And when very rapid changes in financial structure are taking place, as today, regulators are often left behind by the new reality and wrong footed by regulatory arbitrage.

   1. I heard what sounded like migrating Canada Geese yesterday, but then I realized they were just Black Swans.

      1. 🤣

      2. Knot a “white.$wan” in the mix? …

9. Your a lo$er!, & your a winner$!, … $o Ea$y!

   MAD MONEY:

   Cramer: This should be the beginning of the end for $ector ETF$

   CNBC | PUBLISHED WED, MAR 4 2020 | By Kevin Stankiewicz

   KEY POINT$:

   CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wednesday the recent market volatility should serve as the beginning of the end for sector ETF$.

   “I know I’m early, but anyone who doesn’t see this index fund peak on the horizon is fooling themselves,”

   “Why own both the winner$ and loser$ in an indu$try when you can just pick the very obviou$ winner$?” Cramer said.

   (Tell’em Jimmy!)👊! … Big Booyha!

   “When everybody’s got that $ame darn $trategy, that strategy rarely works,” Cramer said. “And a down market like we had last week really validate$ stock picking, especially for those of us who had some ca$h on the sidelines to take advantage of the weakne$$.”

   “The drug ETFs have homogenized the un-homogenizable. We have some very good drug companies and some very bad ones,”

   “We’re now in an environment where, for many industries, more people trade the indices than individual stocks,” Cramer said. “That creates a lot of opportunities for those of you who are willing to manage your own money.”

   1. Catch that knife my boy.

10. Oh Uncle Warren…don’t be such a Debbie Downer.

    In One Chart
    Warren Buffett’s ‘yardstick’ still points to ‘very elevated’ downside risk
    Published: March 5, 2020 at 12:42 p.m. ET
    By Shawn Langlois
    The Buffett ‘yardstick’ shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a share of GNP
    CNBC NEWS– Pictured: Warren Buffett in his office in Omaha, Nebraska, on August 4, 2015 — (Photo by: David A. Grogan/CNBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

    The stock market broke new ground last week in terms of the breakneck speed of its selloff, with the S&P 500 dropping 10% from its record high in a mere six days, faster than any other time in history.

    Time for some bargain-hunting?

    Not so fast, says the Felder Report’s Jesse Felder, who pointed to “The Buffett Yardstick,” in reference to what the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, -3.96%) boss calls “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”:

    “It’s important to put the recent action into some sort of context,” Felder wrote. “For long-term investors, it’s probably most important to understand that the decline we saw last week has in no way made the broad stock market look cheap, as some might suggest.”
    …

    1. What happens when the FED’s already at zero and the stock market reaches levels last seen during the great financial crisis?

       1. 10-year Treasury note yield carves out fresh nadir below 0.90% in midday Thursday action, as stocks resume tumble
          Published: March 5, 2020 at 12:58 p.m. ET
          By Mark DeCambre

          The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield on Thursday fell below 0.9%, carving out a new historic low for the benchmark debt as investors continued to wrestle with the economic implications of the outbreak of COVID-19, the infectious disease that reportedly originated in Wuhan, China in December and has sickened more than 95,000 people world-wide. Bond yields fall as prices rise. The 10-year note yield fell as low as 0.898%, according to FactSet data.
          …

          1. All yer Treasury bond capital gains are belongs to us.

             Key Words
             Bond guru Gundlach says ‘better to stay in cash’ than Treasurys as U.S. 10-year yield hits record low
             Published: March 5, 2020 at 2:08 p.m. ET
             By Sunny Oh
             He says investors are unlikely to make money from a further decline in yields

             Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of DoubleLine Capital
             — “I don’t think calling the direction of interest rates is all that meaningful. I think you are better staying in cash. Even if you are absolutely right and you get lower 10-year rates, you don’t make any money,”

             In a wide-ranging interview on CNBC, bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital said investors shouldn’t bother with betting on where the bond-market was headed if only because there wasn’t much money to be made from making an accurate forecast on long-dated Treasury yields.

             The founder of the Newport Beach-based bond fund manager says it could be more prudent for investors to stay in cash instead, given the overwhelming uncertainty around the COVID-19 outbreak and how it could dent U.S. economic growth.

             Gundlach felt the bond-market was getting close to reaching the low for the yield in the benchmark 10-year U.S Treasury note, but added that the 2-year note (TMUBMUSD02Y, 0.585%) yield was likely to see a steeper slide as it is more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy. His comments comes after the Fed cut its benchmark fed funds rate by 50 basis points on Tuesday, with some traders now expecting another cut at its scheduled policy meeting at March 17-18’.

             “I’m in the camp that the Fed will cut rates again, and perhaps in two weeks,” he said.
             …

             1. Outside the Box
                Opinion: You’ve been diligently investing for retirement all these years. Why now is the time to hang onto cash
                Published: March 5, 2020 at 11:19 a.m. ET
                By Tanja Hester
                Before you load up on stocks, make sure you have assets to ride out a recession
                …

          2. This strategy is for professionals, only. All others should convert their Treasury HODLings to cash immediately.

             Market Extra
             Bond traders are betting the U.S. will converge with Europe’s ultralow interest rates
             Published: March 5, 2020 at 3:06 p.m. ET
             By Sunny Oh
             Treasury-bund spread narrowest since 2016
             …

          3. The Financial Times
             Markets Briefing
             US stocks drop as US Treasury yields hit record lows
             S&P 500 closes down more than 3 per cent as traders await another Fed rate cut
             updated 31 minutes ago

             1. Deep Dive
                Opinion: Here’s how easy it is to buy U.S. Treasury bonds without fees or commissions
                Published: March 5, 2020 at 4:19 p.m. ET
                By Philip van Doorn
                U.S. Treasury securities are among the world’s hottest investments
                Everett Collection

                Investors are pouring money into U.S. bonds because of negative interest rates around the world and fears the new coronavirus will damage the economy and companies.

                For example, the share price of the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (ETF EDV, +3.03%) is up 19% this year. The exchange traded fund’s average effective maturity is 25.1 years, which means it has a relatively high yield of 2.13%. But it’s especially sensitive to the direction of interest rates.

                Investors who are looking for the least amount of risk can avoid fluctuating share prices by purchasing their own Treasury securities with no fees or commissions. See more on that below.

                U.S. rates could fall further
                …

       2. What happens when the FED’s already at zero and the stock market reaches levels last seen during the great financial crisis?

          Go negative or go home. To the ranch in Paraguay.

       3. Bond yields are at a record low. What could this portend?

          OBVIOUSLY: There has never been a better time to buy stocks!

          Unless this is a market top, and not a bottom, that is…

          Opinion: The stock market’s big swings indicate a top or a bottom — here’s how to decide
          Published: March 5, 2020 at 3:41 p.m. ET
          By Nigam Arora
          Do you think bonds provide safety from the stock market? At this level, bond yields are so low, stocks look attractive in comparison
          Getty Images/iStockphoto

          I am receiving a large number of complaints about the stock market’s wild swings as the new coronavirus spreads across the U.S.

          My suggestion is to not complain. The reason is that there is nothing you can do. Investors ought to accept the swings, focus on making money from them with short-term trades while protecting their portfolios. For example, “Coronavirus brings opportunities in gold — just like in the good, old days.”

          Big swings in prices are an indication of a top or a bottom in the stock market. Which one is it? Here is how to decide, with the help of two charts.
          …

          1. “At this level, bond yields are so low, stocks look attractive in comparison”

             Suppose that returns on stocks are expected to be negative for the next few months, due to a black swan event that hammers sales to below costs. Would you be better off taking a low, positive yield on Treasury bonds, or HODLing stocks through a period of negative returns?

             1. Hence the reason bonds are so low?

       4. The Financial Times
          Coronavirus latest: Asia-Pacific ‘faces $211bn economic loss’

          Global equity fund outflows hit $23bn on coronavirus fears

          1. Associated Press
             Asian markets slump as coronavirus jitters take hold
             Published: March 5, 2020 at 11:25 p.m. ET
             By Associated Press
             Nikkei, Hang Seng, Kospi drop more than 2% following Wall Street’s latest tumble
             …

    2. Somewhere it is written: “he who is in ca$h, shall bee 1$t.” … his 7+ Billion$ in “dividend$” is knot going to $tretch as far as it used too. … $ad.

11. Non.$ynchronized Global “$oft.landing$” has to $tarts somewhere, the Un.united.Kingdom is a good a place as any eye reckon.

    Reuters$ | BUSINESS NEW$ | MARCH 4, 2020

    British airline Flybe collap$es as coronavirus$ deal$ final blow

    By Sarah Young, Kate Holton

    LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s Flybe collapsed on Thursday after a plunge in travel demand, making the long-struggling regional airline one of the first big corporate casualties of the coronavirus outbreak.

    The failure of an airline that connects all corners of the United Kingdom with major European destinations not only puts around 2,400 jobs at risk but could also see some airports struggle and regional economies hit.

    “All flights have been grounded and the UK business has ceased trading with immediate effect,” Flybe said after the government walked away from a rescue package agreed in January

    Airlines around the world have been cancelling flights and warning of a hit to profitability after coronavirus first emerged in China, hitting flights across Asia, before it spread to Europe and beyond.

    British Airways (ICAG.L), easyJet (EZJ.L), Virgin Atlantic, Lufthansa (LHAG.DE), Norwegian Air (NWC.OL) and United Airlines (UAL.O) are among those warning on the impact of a virus that looks set to hit the industry harder than the 2003 SARS outbreak.

    Flybe’s collapse will also cause more problems for Prime Minister Boris Johnson who had promised to “level up” Britain by investing in regional transport links.

    His government had agreed a rescue deal for the 41-year-old airline in January, saying it was important to maintain connections across the country for its eight million passengers. It said on Thursday there was nothing more it could do.

    1. Tammy Hernandez – Realtor in London
       https://www.instagram.com/tammyhtherealtor/
       *Fake A.F.

       1. Aren’t they called “Estate Agents” over there?

          1. Maybe after you pass away?

             1. If you buy a house in London you might as well be taking a dirt nap.

12. Encinitas time warp is pending: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/836-San-Dieguito-Dr_Encinitas_CA_92024_M24826-61907?view=qv

    1. Is that blood on the toilet seat?

       1. No, it looks like a hand-knit toilet seat cover with a red object knit into the pattern, possibly the bottom half of a red flower vase. The realtor put the cover on the seat upside down. What should be the top-facing part of the cover is facing downward, toward the bowl.

          1. I can see now, a couple of hours later, how what I posted there could have been interpreted seriously — sorry about that 🙂

    2. $1.5M for a shack that probably sold originally for $30K. And it’s east of Hwy 101. I can only imagine the price if it was west, or beachfront.

       1. that is Cardiff, its a beautiful area and that land is prime. I met a guy at the Cardiff farmers market who bought a 700 sq foot place there in 1986 who said it was appraised at 1.5M as well. He worked a low end job working a register and walks his dog around town and enjoys life not having to worry about money. Prop 13 has kept his tax rate to nothing.

          1. that is Cardiff, its a beautiful area and that land is prime

             I used to live in Solana Beach. I think the area is overrated.

          2. that is Cardiff

             Not Cardiff.

13. ‘A key barometer of the health of the global shipping market has sunk to its lowest level on record as the coronavirus adds pressure to an already struggling industry. The Baltic Exchange’s capesize index fell into negative territory for the first time last month and has gone lower this week. It fell by 7 points yesterday to -353.’

    1. Baltic Exchange’s capesize index

       The Hellenic Shipping News describes China as “closed”.

    2. I don’t really get negative prices. Except perhaps for the case of bond yields, where the market is artificially manipulated by monetary intervention.

14. Ya reckon this “$it.u.ation” has improved $ince Jan 26th 2020? … ye$, no?

    Bank$ have returned to the pre-2008 world of automatic credit-limit increa$es for credit card$ used by already indebted people$

    BoingBoing / CORY DOCTOROW / SUN JAN 26, 2020

    “Proactive credit line increases” (PCLIs) are when your credit card company increases your credit limit without your asking for it; it was very common prior to the 2008 crisis, but the post-crisis rules largely put a stop to it. Now, banks have figured out regulatory loopholes that allow them to throw PCLIs at their most vulnerable customers, leading to record-high national levels of credit-card debt of $880b as of last September, higher than the pre-crisis high.

    Credit cards are the most profitable loans that the finance industry originates, and 2019 was the best-ever year for the banks’ profits from credit cards, with interest rates soaring to a 20-year peak. The US banks made $179b in credit card fees and interest in 2019, and 2020 is projected to be even better. Credit-card debt is the fastest-growing form of debt in the USA.

    Much of this PCLI activity is subprime — extending credit to people who are already overburdened by debt and who will likely miss payments, leading to high penalties, which are extremely profitable for banks.

    The number of people aged 19-29 in the USA who are more than 90 days late on their card payments just reached a ten-year high.

    But after the stock slipped in 2017, [Capital One] executives came under pressure to show they could meet growth targets. They eventually tweaked their models to offer increases to more customers, betting on a quirk in human behavior, according to the person with knowledge of the decision, who asked not to be named discussing the talks. The firm’sanalyses showed people tended to keep their card utilization steady, even after line increases. In other words, someone who used 80% of their credit line before the boost, would typically use the same percentage afterward, generating more revenue.

    Other researchers had come to similar conclusions. For consumers who carry balances on their cards, “nearly 100% of an increase in credit limits eventually becomes an increase in debts,” according to a working paper by Scott Fulford and Scott Schuh for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. About half of U.S. credit card accounts carry a balance each month

15. “‘Forget Canada. We’ll go somewhere else.’

    Good riddance. Take your dirty money and fraudulent dealings with you.

16. “Homeowners are dumping their properties in Hong Kong for as much as HK$11.6 million (US$1.5 million) in losses to pack up their bags because of the city’s dire economic prospects, analysts said.

    Their neighbors who are staying put must love what that’s doing to the comps.

17. “‘The sector is witnessing an unprecedented downward spiral. The funding has dried up and builders are grappling with a pile-up of unsold inventory,’ said Housing Minister Jitendra Awhad.”

    As the central banks lose control, those two sentences will describe every former bubble market on the planet.

18. Fauxcahontas is caught between a rock and a hard place: back Biden and prove herself a fraud; or, back Bernie and risk her career path.

    1. Or Just sit back and wait for the veep invitation?

       1. Same choice with or without a VP invitation.

       2. It would be funny if Creepy Joe offered here the VP position, then Bernie went on to crush him.

    2. Oh, SNAP!

       https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/04/tulsi-gabbard-the-fake-indigenous-woman-of-color-isnt-the-only-woman-left-in-the-race/

19. Coronavirus just got real for 2.2 million residents of King County in Washington State who have been told to go home and stay home. That’s going to put a serious dent in the local economy, not to mention there won’t be a lot house hunting taking place.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/washington-king-county-coronavirus-residents-work-from-home

    1. I note they show the Johns Hopkins command center in the article. Had a very strange thing happen yesterday when I loaded that site on my phone. As it was loading, the number it showed for confirmed cases was something like 2,472,893. I about spit out the finely smoked bourbon I was enjoying. Not sure the exact number but it was over 2.4M.

       A few seconds later that number was replaced with “No Data” then reloaded with the expected 95K number. It’s possible the algorithm was being refined at around the same time or some other glitch occurred but I’m wondering if there’s a much higher confirmed case load than what is being reported and there is some other math happening to keep the freakout to a minimum.

    2. Casa Spiffy is prepared.

       Mrs Spiffy is now at 100% work from home for the foreseeable future. I’ve been 100% WFH since leaving HBO in 2016.

       Still making a trip to the grocery store ever few days, but that’s about it.

       but damn.. it’s gotta suck to have a job where you depend on people getting out and about – uber drivers, restaurants (though door dash orders may be up?), amazon delivery, retail workers, Realwhores(tm), etc, etc…

       A lot of people are going to get slammed income-wise as everything slows down but they still gotta pay rent. This could get really ugly soon.

       1. ‘but they still gotta pay rent’

          Or a…$600k mortgage!

          1. I’ll take the $1200 a month rent payment on the house. Keep your $600k mortgage.

          2. $600k mortgage!

             There is that.

          3. Or a…$600k mortgage!

             Same difference, though I suspect the more vulnerable workers are likely more renters than homeowners.

             Anyone who is highly leveraged or without much of a safety net has got to be sweating a bit. People whose ‘safety net’ was in the stock market. may be sweating a lot.

             Remember the surveys that some large percentage of people couldn’t afford a $400 or $1000 emergency? those people would be considering taking a job like this…

             https://old.reddit.com/r/SeattleWA/comments/fe23si/hmm_wonder_which_nursing_home_in_kirkland_they/

             1. “Remember the surveys that some large percentage of people couldn’t afford a $400 or $1000 emergency?”

                The direct end result of paying too much for a rapidly depreciating asset like a house….. then doubling down on it by financing.

                Oooph

                Longboat Key, FL Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Sarasota And Manatee County Housing Market Turns Radioactive

                https://www.zillow.com/longboat-key-fl/home-values/

                *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

                A distinguished economist quipped, “Why buy a house when you can rent one for half the monthly cost. Buy it later after prices crater for 70% less.”

    3. First two cases confirmed in the Centennial state. Yee ha!

20. The first thing people do before they are scared to death is invest in US housing. This is very logical and rationale.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/foreign-investors-are-piling-into-this-coronavirus-safe-haven.html

    1. “SHORTAGE!!! SHORTAGE!!! SHORTAGE!!!”

    2. CNBC is Pravda. You’re more likely to get truth from a Realtor than CNBC.

       1. “CNBC is Pravda”

          CNBC, DOWn : (-970.58)

          faux.New$: Kudlow: “… never a better time to travel to Italy!”

          Choo$e yer poi$on

    3. You know what realtor says, “what goes up, KEEPS GOING UP!”

21. As COVID-19 spreads around the globe, people are panic-buying everything but shacks.

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/panic-buying-follows-coronavirus-across-the-globe/

22. Spring is in the air, and the weather is predicted to warm up.

    Must be time for oil prices to crash!

    Futures Movers
    Brent oil ends at lowest since 2017 as OPEC recommends further output cuts, but doubts over Russia’s cooperation weigh
    Published: March 5, 2020 at 4:10 p.m. ET
    By Myra P. Saefong and William Watts
    Natural-gas futures fall 3% on forecasts for warmer U.S. weather
    …

    1. The Financial Times
       Oil
       Oil traders warn of ‘zero growth’ in 2020 demand due to coronavirus
       Outbreak expected to cut consumption increase to weakest levels since 2008 crisis
       3 hours ago

    2. Actually, i was thinking of the intro to Lord of the Rings with the voiceover by Galadriel; “The world is changing, I can feel it in the air…”

       One can almost sense everybody around starting to batten down the hatches.

       1. It’s a good time for home shopping, when rival prospective buyers are too scared to go out of their homes to attend open houses.

23. Seauhan (formerly Seattle) streets are looking emptier each passing days.

    1. Had to get over into Bellevue yesterday morning, left @ 9:30am and 405 north was still fully constipated.

    2. The seauhan homeless population might be at risk here… Read up that there are two strains of this flu “L“ and “S“ with S being the most severe. Not sure which one is Going around the states here.

24. San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 24% YOY As Rental Rates Plunge On Ballooning Housing Inventory

    https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94123/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    One Bay Area Broker Conceded, “If you’re a buyer, the broker is lying to you. I know liar when I hear one. I’ve been lying my entire life.”

25. “streets are looking emptier each passing days.”

    ” … it’s just a cold!!! ” Ra$h limpbaugh$ … (Pay attention to the Truth.$layers!)

26. Just came across this video….fascinating 1918 influenza pandemic survivor interview: Mrs. Edna Register Boone

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7k20VFZeLKY

    1. “x2 teaspoons of “soda” in the mornin’!” … $alvations, it’$ a ” miracle! ”

       Thanks! (Hope this makes it to faux.news ASAP!)

       1. I think she meant baking soda…..i remember my grandmother seemed to use a lot of it

27. This is the guy, who could knot $tate what his bank teller$ in Irvine, CA are paid. “I’ll look in to it … ”

    JPMorgan says CEO Jamie Dimon recovering from emergency heart surgery
    MarketWatch | Published: March 5, 2020 |By Mike Murphy

    ‘Jamie experienced an acute aortic dissection this morning,’ bank says

    “… a$k knot what you can do for your employee, … a$k, what can your employee do for you!” … By Anonymou$

    Carnage Cometh! (Part ll)

28. https://therealdeal.com/la/2020/03/05/zillow-co-founder-spencer-rascoff-lists-brentwood-park-home/

    LOL

    1. More LOL:

       “Rascoff is currently launching dot.LA, a news and events company that will cover the tech scene in Los Angeles.”

       “Last year, Rascoff stepped down from Zillow, which has pivoted to an ibuyer model with Rich Barton at the helm.”

    2. Please please please Chinese come over and pay the asking prices!!! Me love you long time!!!

29. I heard this last night.

    Joe Biden has waited his whole life for success in a presidential-primary, too bad he’s not around to enjoy it.

    1. It would be comical if it weren’t so scary that he’s the best they could do. Listening to him talk…I can’t imagine him as the President. There is not a chance in hell I’d vote for him.

    2. 😜 Joe
       He should be in jail.

30. Report from rural Ontario Canada. The chain grocery store Price Choppers has everything they think the prepper might be wanting on sale. People are definitely stocking up in the back country.

    1. A few days ago at the grocery store they had a huge display of bottled water in the middle of the aisle near the dairy. I have never seen a big display of water before. Hmmm.

31. Crude Oil Craters 28% YTD As Wheels Fall Off China Economy

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic?mod=home-page

32. Is the coronavirus running its course in China?

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-hubei-excluding-wuhan-reports-no-new-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN20T060

    1. Doubtful.

    2. They would have you believe that it’s completely over in China. Their only problem now is people coming in from other countries. The cherry blossoms thing was an artistic relish.

33. From the John Hopkins University Coronavirus GIS site:

    Confirmed Cases: 98,382
    Total Deaths: 3,383

    Total Deaths as a percentage of Confirmed Cases = (3,383/98,382)×100% = 3.4%.

    I’m sure it’s a pure coincidence that this exactly matches the WHO case fatality rate estimate.

    He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense.

    — John McCarthy

34. Las Vegas Locally
    Palm tree
    @LasVegasLocally
    Hearing some crazy stories about half-empty flights arriving in Las Vegas today.
    7:43 PM · Mar 5, 2020
    twitter.com/LasVegasLocally/status/1235772904673026048

35. Would this be a good time for a bear to go into coronavirus hibernation?

    The Financial Times
    Coronavirus
    Treasury yields hit new lows on coronavirus fears as stocks fall

    Asia-Pacific markets drop on investor flight to safety
    updated 42 minutes ago

    More on this topic
    Coronavirus latest: S Korea and Japan clash over quarantine; Asia stocks and US bond yields fall

    1. Treasury yields hit new lows on coronavirus fears as stocks fall

       TLT was up 6+% this morning when I checked.

36. The Financial Times
    Markets News
    UK interest rates
    Markets shift to bet on UK interest rate cuts
    Easing now widely anticipated after emergency move from US Federal Reserve

    Property sector
    Coronavirus raises threat of China developer defaults
    Property companies face cash crunch on billions of US dollar bonds as sales dry up

    Coronavirus
    Government bonds hit new highs on coronavirus fears
    European and Asia-Pacific stocks fall as investors flee to haven assets
    updated 39 minutes ago

    Analysis US Treasury bonds
    US Treasury investors contemplate life near zero

    Capital markets
    Global equity outflows hit $23bn on coronavirus fears

    Equities
    Coronavirus fears leave investors huddling in utilities

    1. Yield on 10-year falls to new record low as U.S. stock futures weaken
       Published: March 6, 2020 at 4:18 a.m. ET
       By Steve Goldstein

       A stunning move overnight into bonds sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury (TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.760%) to a new record low.
       …

    2. The FT article is behind a pay firewall but here is another article
       https://checkersaga.com/coronavirus-raises-threat-of-china-developer-defaults/21477/

       “The Covid-19 epidemic has shut down financial exercise throughout massive swaths of China, with tens of tens of millions of individuals unable to maneuver freely in cities and cities. In lots of locations meaning potential homebuyers can’t exit and seek for new flats.

       Whereas gross sales figures for February aren’t but out there, a report from property researcher E-Home confirmed that through the first week of February fewer than 4 properties a day had been bought in Beijing. Usually, lots of of properties change arms every day.”

       OH DEAR

37. I guess the corporate insiders know where earnings are going if anyone does…

    Mark Hulbert
    Opinion: Coronavirus is scaring company insiders into selling their shares — fast
    Published: March 6, 2020 at 7:58 a.m. ET
    By Mark Hulbert
    Follow the money: Corporate officers and directors are bearish even as stocks decline
    …

38. In several decades of market watching, I have never seen Treasurys behave as they are currently. It’s a little crazy…something like the financial markets equivalent of people buying water by the case at Costco.

    1. If we sink below 25k it could be the tipping point that even the PPT wont be able to save. Today might just be the day

    2. Wall Street is turning into a real life version of the movie Groundhog Day.

       Market Snapshot
       Stocks open sharply lower as coronavirus cases hit 100,000, overshadowing hotter-than-expected jobs report
       Published: March 6, 2020 at 9:45 a.m. ET
       By Mark DeCambre
       U.S. economy added 273,000 jobs in February
       …

       1. Someone got angry at gold at 10:15 this morning. It’s up $12 when I go take a shower, then come back and it’s down $20. Crazy volatility these days!

          1. And now it’s back in the green. Crazy.

       2. Self-quarantine doesn’t inspire confidence especially when the discussion includes America’s homeless population.

          1. America’s homeless population

             Seattle and LA could get really bad.

39. This herd is easily spooked.

    Market Extra
    Why stocks tanked despite the Fed’s emergency rate cut
    Published: March 3, 2020 at 10:32 p.m. ET
    By William Watts
    Intermeeting move ‘reignited investors’ worst fears’: State Street’s Arone

    “I think the Fed’s rate cut backfired in many ways. Instead of soothing the market, it’s reignited investors’ worst fears,” Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors, told MarketWatch in a phone interview.

    Stocks initially jumped after the Fed announced a half-point cut, but gains proved short-lived. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -1.762%) fell nearly 1,000 points at its session low and ended the day down 785.91 points, or 2.9%, at 25,917.41, while the S&P 500 (SPX, -2.002%) dropped 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP, -1.805%) lost 3%.
    …

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