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More Inventory Coupled With Fewer, Slower Sales, Sends A Message To Sellers

A report from Pleasanton Weekly in California. “As of the end of September, the total number of homes listed for sale in Pleasanton since the beginning of the year was almost 10% more than the same period during 2017. This is a significant change given how stable the supply of homes has been in Pleasanton for the last four years.”

“Equally interesting is when this increase in homes for sale occurred during the year. Starting in July, the number of homes on the market was significantly more than July 2017. This trend continued in August and September.”

“Given the limited supply of homes for sale in Pleasanton, any increase is seen as a sign of a changing market. But in this case, more homes for sale doesn’t mean more homes are selling. ‘Like in other communities, more inventory is cooling the market just a little,’ said Tim Ambrose, 2018 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors.”

“This chill is felt in the number of homes sold. As inventory was increasing starting in July, the number of homes sold started to drop. In all, 75 single-family homes sold during July, 65 in August and 50 in September. The seasonal nature of real estate — kids heading back to school — was certainly a factor.”

“Another change is the amount of time a home is on the market. The average days-on-market for a single-family home being sold in Pleasanton during 2018 is 20 days. However, in August a home was on the market an average of 23 days and in September it was 27 days.”

“Ambrose believes more inventory coupled with fewer, slower sales, sends a message to sellers. ‘It’s a conversation we have to have with our sellers to adjust their expectations,’ he said. ‘For example, sellers receiving seven to 10 offers at over asking price won’t be as often as it was in the past.'”

“This is the third year in a row where sales prices have exceeded $1 million. Yet prices, as with homes sold, are trending downward. During September, the median sales price was $1.29 million, which is $36,000 less than September 2017 and $126,000 less than August 2018. “

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  2. ‘The average days-on-market for a single-family home being sold in Pleasanton during 2018 is 20 days. However, in August a home was on the market an average of 23 days and in September it was 27 days’

    Yeah, that extra 3 or 7 days would have me a sawin’ and a slashin’.

    Or maybe I would take a trip and collect my extra $120,000 afterward. Of course, perhaps the real story is not being explained.

  3. ‘It’s a conversation we have to have with our sellers to adjust their expectations…For example, sellers receiving seven to 10 offers at over asking price won’t be as often as it was in the past.’

    Here’s the thing Tim. I only need one offer over asking! Who cares if there are 10?

    What’s that? Oh, there aren’t any over asking is what you meant. Some are low-balls offers, (those bashtards!) probably.

    1. 7-10 offers…. Hype, mania inducement, lies, realturd propaganda. Realtors should be imprisoned and removed from society

      1. These “sellers” (we should trade mark the term) are behaving more like stock day traders than shack owners.

      2. I am sure it used to happen. We sold our house on the way up in Bubble 1.0 and had 8 offers within a week of showing. Why oh why would you even compete when there are that many offers? I do not know.

        Much much better to be the only offer in a few months on a house.

  5. A comment below from that article that hits all the key points as to why this isn’t going to play out as the sellers are hoping for. #3 I think is really our #1 and why those over priced offers have mysteriously vanished.

    “The market dynamics is actually worst than meeting the eye and data being presented:
    1- The prices are dropping in ALL major markets (NY, Miami, Atlanta, Seattle,…). Bat area is somewhat buffered temporarily because of strong job market.
    2- The Rate increase is pushing the marginal buyers our of the market- AGAIN.
    3- The cash buyers (Chinese and Russians) are on hard hold by their respective governments- Capital outflows is under tight control now.
    4- The supply is coming fast and will even be faster by year end as more projects finish and become available.
    5- New construction cost has/is gone off the charts! this may tighten up the supply in longer term.
    6- Equity market losses always translates to real estate values/losses- it is the capital flow in/out that is making is all asset classes volatile.

    Bottom line, home prices locally/nationally must/will drop by 15-20% in the course of the next 6-12 months.“

    1. I am pretty sure we haven’t seen the full impact of Trumps state and local tax policy yet. Many many headwinds.

    1. Realtors remain hopeful at this tiny rebound…

      Im picturing 20 realtors surrounding a small camp fire in the rain with no more wood to burn. Yes pray and remain hopeful you poor realtors

      1. I’m picturing FBs and former realtors huddled together around a trash can fire sharing a meal of hobo stew and passing the paper bag that holds the bottle of Night Train, trading blame for their current downward spiral.

        2. trading blame for their current downward spiral.

          Last time they didn’t blame each other. They blamed us.

      2. I just got shadow banned on a LV realtor’s youtube channel. So touchy. My comment was still there (the only one) but the count was 0. I didn’t know they did that; naturally, you hear about it going on on facebook, Twitter, etc.

          1. 🙂 Sorry, didn’t keep it, deleted and unsubscribed. I didn’t think it was all that harsh. He was saying that the LV market may be starting go south. I might have mentioned that I hope they all lose their degenerate gambler assses. He must be a sensitive soul.

    1. I wonder if you can get a hunting license for californians /s

      This scenario of displaced people from HCOL areas making the locals miserable is playing out more frequently these days.

    1. Cut from article

      “…Younger homeowners are also more likely to pay balances over time…”

      No other joyous feeling like paying for a slab of granite at 18% interest.

      Now I understand where the expression “millstone around your neck” comes from.

  13. “…Tim Ambrose, 2018 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors…”

    Quote of the day

    “…For example, sellers receiving seven to 10 offers at over asking price won’t be as often as it was in the past…”

    Tim Ambrose fancies himself not only as a knowledgeable realtor, but as a comedian.

    “…seven to 10 offers at over asking…” “…won’t be as often as it was…”

    I laughed so hard at this nonsense that I had to get up out of my cube here at the office and walk around the building a few times.

    Do they present “Big time Idiot” awards at the local comedy clubs?

    Tim is a shoo-in.

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