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Sellers May Have To Make Some Price Adjustments To Sell

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “The coronavirus has been sending shares of elder-care facilities into a tailspin over concern that any additional contagion in senior-care buildings could hurt operations and lead to occupancy declines. Shares of health-care real estate investment trusts have fallen 50% since Feb. 24, according to FactSet, with the slide accelerating in March. The senior-housing sector was already coming under pressure from overbuilding from Chicago to New England that created an emerging supply glut in major markets. Last year, returns from senior-housing portfolios were around negative 7%.”

From Spare Foot. “Continued overbuilding across the country is putting price pressures on self-storage facilities across most of the country – and nowhere are the price pressures greater than in Pittsburgh, Minnesota’s Twin Cities and South Carolina’s Charleston, according to a new Yardi Matrix report. There’s Pittsburgh, Minnesota’s Twin Cities and South Carolina’s Charleston – where year-over-year prices have fallen from 7 to 8 percent, according to data. All three markets have different characteristics and quirks, but their recent price plunges ultimately come down to one thing: Overbuilding.”

“In Minnesota’s Minneapolis and St. Paul markets, Chris Kirwan, president of Acorn Mini Storage in the Twin Cities, says ‘dozens and dozens’ of new facilities have been built in recent years, increasing the overall supply by about 15 to 20 percent, and it’s ‘really starting to catch up to everyone.’ ‘It’s all around the area,’ he said of new self-storage facilities. ‘It’s an over-supply situation, definitely.'”

“Tom Flannigan, a broker at Argus Self Storage Advisors, said he recently did a valuation for one self-storage property in the Twin Cities area – and found its value had fallen by more than $1 million compared to a few years earlier, thanks to falling rents and the spiking number of new facilities in the region. There’s ‘tons of new supply’ in the Twin Cities area, he said. Real estate investment trusts and other larger players are aggressively tapping into the market, among them Public Storage, which Flannigan said is currently building a new 200,000-square-foot facility in the area.”

“In Charleston, SC, the story is roughly the same: Oversupply. A ‘combination of everyone’ seems to be building new facilities in South Carolina, but companies affiliated with large REITs are especially aggressive on the construction front, says Mike MacManus, first vice president of investments at Marcus & Millchap, a commercial real estate investment broker. Charleston and Greenville are ‘hotbeds’ of new construction, he said. ‘There’s a touch of blind optimism in some markets,’ MacManus said of construction in both in North and South Carolina.”

The Columbus Dispatch in Ohio. “Six apartment complexes are about to open Downtown and two recently built ones are still filling up, adding up to 1,000 empty apartments in the center city and the biggest test yet of how deep the audience is for center city living. There is such a glut of new apartments that the real estate service CoStar concluded that Downtown’s ‘explosive growth has finally outpaced demand.’ Downtown’s ‘demand drivers haven’t gone anywhere, but it does appear, for the first time in years, they have oversaturated the market with supply,’ CoStar said.”

“‘With all these units coming online, we’re going to see them fighting for tenants a little bit,’ said Rob Vogt, managing partner of Columbus real estate research firm VSI. ‘We’ll see rent specials, free monthly rents, giveaways.'”

From Pro-Builder. “Cue sighs of relief from renters: Multifamily is going to have a big year in 2020. Experts forecast that builders will add 370,942 units over the year, a whopping 50 percent increase from 2019. These added units should bring relief to the mounting pressures on the rental market due to low inventory and spiking prices in many areas of the country. It may not always feel so easy to find an apartment that meets your needs at a price you can afford, but the situation could be improving in the Washington, D.C., region and across the country. This year, more apartment buildings are anticipated to be completed in the United States than at any other time in the past three decades, according to RealPage.”

From Community Impact in Texas. “The effects of the coronavirus will be felt in the local real estate market, said Yolanda Ames, Bay Area real estate agent with Houston Properties Team. As a result of the outbreak and declining oil and gas prices, the stock market is dropping. Some buyers use stocks and bonds as down payments on homes, but with the drop, they are unable to afford houses and are backing out of deals, Ames said. ‘We have seen some homes go back on the market as a result,’ she said.”

“More homes may hit the market as jobs are affected by the outbreak and residents sell houses to keep finances afloat, she said. Additionally, houses may become cheaper as more enter the market as a result of the coronavirus, making now a a good time for homebuyers, Ames said. ‘The benefit for a buyer now … is that sellers may have to make some price adjustments to sell,’ she said.”

The Review Journal in Nevada. “Just a few weeks ago, Las Vegas’ economy was riding high. After years of clawing back from the gutter of the Great Recession, locals could point to billions of dollars’ worth of real estate projects. Tourism numbers were strong, the unemployment rate kept tumbling, and the housing market, after slumping in 2019, blasted off with huge boosts in sales totals to start the year. But then the coronavirus hit.”

“It’s too early to tell exactly how the coronavirus will affect Southern Nevada’s real estate industry. That probably will hinge on several factors, including if there are widespread job losses, if lenders cut back on funding future projects or if the overall economy starts spiraling, prompting developers to pull the plug on their projects. At least one thing is certain: You can’t overstate how important tourism is to Las Vegas and to its housing market, given all of the people across the valley who work in the industry, supply it or otherwise feed off it.”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “As much of the Bay Area’s economy sputters to a halt due to the new coronavirus, housing builders are plugging away — pouring concrete and hanging drywall. Currently, there are 10,000 units under construction in San Francisco. About 4,300 were completed in 2019. In addition, affordable projects in San Francisco are backed by the city’s top-notch credit, which makes them safe haven for investors in turbulent times, said Rebecca Foster, chief executive officer for the San Francisco Housing Accelerator Fund.”

“But affordable developers also face increased uncertainty. The coronavirus is already disrupting the tax-exempt bond market, Foster said. Most affordable-housing projects in San Francisco are funded in part through the sale of tax-exempt bonds. Foster said she is getting ready to sell tax-exempt bonds in the next few months for a supportive-housing project for the formerly homeless in the South of Market. ‘It’s possible the bonds will sell for less than expected, but also possible that there will be no buyers,’ she said.”

The California Globe. “The specter of California’s cities and counties becoming insolvent is nothing new. Three major California cities have already declared bankruptcy, Vallejo in 2008, Stockton and San Bernardino in 2012. In October 2019, the California State Auditor’s Office reported on the fiscal health of 471 California cities. On what the California State Auditor’s office describes as a ‘Local Government High Risk Dashboard,’ they identified 18 high risk communities: Compton, Atwater, Blythe, Lindsay, Calexico, San Fernando, El Cerrito, San Gabriel, Maywood, Monrovia, Vernon, Richmond, Oakland, Ione, Del Rey Oaks, Marysville, West Covina, and La Habra.”

“On this zoomed in segment, the financially troubled cities of (from north to south) Richmond and El Cerrito (contiguous), and Oakland can be seen highlighted in red. Southern California also has its share of financially troubled cities, as shown on the next map segment taken from the California State Auditor’s dashboard. Clockwise, starting from the top, the most financially endangered cities are Monrovia, West Covina, La Habra, Compton, Vernon and Commerce (contiguous), and San Gabriel.”

“Back in October 2019 when the California State Auditor warned Californians about 18 cities in immediate financial peril, the overall economic situation looked very different than it does today. And at that time, articles that reported on the auditor’s warning published by Reason, Governing, and Associated Press all pointed to underfunded pensions as a primary cause of their financial distress.”

“But now what? Now that the economy is slowing, and the value of investments are correcting dramatically downward? One point needs to be reiterated at a time like this: While it is true that an 80 percent funded status is considered adequate for a pension fund, it refers to an average across the business cycle. It does not represent what should be necessary at the end of a bull market. California’s public employee pension funds, a few weeks ago and at what we now know was the end of an 11 year bull market, were only about 70 percent funded.”

“A healthy pension system at the end of over a decade of extraordinary investment returns should be overfunded. Perhaps it is credible to be sanguine about falling a bit short of the 80 percent threshold after ten years of investment doldrums, but it is absurd, and dangerous, to pretend such a level of funding is adequate after ten or more years of spectacular investment gains.”

“And it isn’t just pensions, anymore, that are going to affect the financial health of cities across California, from San Jose and Oakland in the north down to Los Angeles in the south. The recent and long overdue correction in the stock market was triggered by a global pandemic that is going to paralyze huge segments of the U.S. and global economy for the next several weeks, if not months. This will cause sales tax revenues to crater for as long as ‘social distancing’ mandates remain in place, and afterwards, even an extraordinary rebound is unlikely to make up for the loss.”

“California’s state and local governments have had over a decade to get their financial house in order. Instead, they have largely ignored the pension problem, with even Gov. Jerry Brown calling the PEPRA reforms of 2014 an inadequate compromise offering only incremental improvements. They have continued to make punitive demands on businesses, increasing taxes and spending at every opportunity. They have enacted regulations that make affordable housing and energy financially impossible for private sector interests to develop. They have emptied the prisons and opened the borders, putting additional stress on public services. They have created a state where one little push will end the good times.”

“That push has come. Even the nonreligious may find an apt parable for today’s dilemma in Genesis Chapter 41, verses 17 through 33. During good years, you prepare for bad years. Too bad the wisdom of the ages emphatically does not apply in woke California.”

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This Post Has 229 Comments

  1. ‘he recently did a valuation for one self-storage property in the Twin Cities area – and found its value had fallen by more than $1 million compared to a few years earlier, thanks to falling rents and the spiking number of new facilities in the region. There’s ‘tons of new supply’ in the Twin Cities area, he said. Real estate investment trusts and other larger players are aggressively tapping into the market, among them Public Storage, which Flannigan said is currently building a new 200,000-square-foot facility in the area’

    ‘In Charleston, SC, the story is roughly the same: Oversupply. A ‘combination of everyone’ seems to be building new facilities in South Carolina, but companies affiliated with large REITs are especially aggressive’

    ‘The senior-housing sector was already coming under pressure from overbuilding from Chicago to New England that created an emerging supply glut in major markets. Last year, returns from senior-housing portfolios were around negative 7%’

    QE is ultimately deflationary. Yellen bucks looking for a place to die is a real phenomenon.

    1. In my small town we have a huge over-supply of self-storage properties, which leads me to believe that people from the nearby metro areas have their stuff queued here where it’s cheap.

  2. ‘Additionally, houses may become cheaper as more enter the market as a result of the coronavirus, making now a a good time for homebuyers, Ames said. ‘The benefit for a buyer now … is that sellers may have to make some price adjustments to sell’

    Wa? But Houston UHS say red hot?

  3. ‘“Just a few weeks ago, Las Vegas’ economy was riding high…But then the coronavirus hit’

    Gosh, I hope no one overpaid in such an environment…

    ‘It’s too early to tell exactly how the coronavirus will affect Southern Nevada’s real estate industry. That probably will hinge on several factors, including if there are widespread job losses, if lenders cut back on funding future projects or if the overall economy starts spiraling, prompting developers to pull the plug on their projects. At least one thing is certain: You can’t overstate how important tourism is to Las Vegas and to its housing market’

    Tourism is the weakest link and certainly could never support a $300k median priced shack.

  4. The Wall Street picture is becoming too gloomy to comment. Where did all the bulls go?

    1. Like 2008 maybe worse ? Have to try and buy in at the bottom. Missed it in 2008 with stocks by a year I guess ? but hit it with housing in 2012 . Its been a long wait always is I guess. really they should stop running the economy like this. Its stupid

  5. I was thinking the last 24 hours. If you wanted to catch the virus in Arizona, actively wanted to contract it, you’d have a hard time. The public has gone full costco on this thing. I realize it’s serious. And I was wondering why we didn’t close mass sporting events (etc) weeks ago.

    Yesterday I went to a chain grocery store. Runs now extend to laundry soap and dry dog food. Stupidity is everywhere.

    1. Peak Prosperity’s Tuesday video looked at a couple of curves. There are two basic choices:
      1. let everybody live as normal and expect everyone to get it eventually. Advantage: herd immunity very quickly, by say, end of summer. Disadvantage: overwhelm the health system and millions die or have permanent damage.
      2. practice social distancing to flatten the curve. Advantage: many fewer deaths. Disadvantages: everyone is cooped up for a long time, perhaps until Christmas, and people not yet exposed will probably get it anyway.

      The only acceptable avenue I see is for the biotechs to find a cocktail of effective drugs to treat the disease to where the patient recovers, or at least does not need the ICU. Then the healthy can continue to contract this until everyone has it at least once.

        1. No, the Peak Prosperity channel is normally a channel that talks doom about the coming financial crisis — they see all the debt and repo and QE as well.

          1. He’s been absolutely right in all of his projections about the trajectory of the disease since January. Another person who has been level headed and truthful about what is going on is Scott Gottlieib, who formerly headed the FDA.

          2. Martenson was right about the virus while the country was in denial. He was removed from Wikipedia because he was causing”panic”. To paraphrase Martenson “ facts are facts. To panic or not is your decision. “

    2. Yeah, I took a spin through a local Walmart just to rubberneck yesterday. I noticed the pet food aisle was nearly cleared out. Along with the better part of the entire grocery section.

    3. when I lived in Phoenix in 2008 I remember Bank runs in CA . Now I live in CA and the stores went full Costco weeks ago. I really need to re-locate back to AZ , CA is so crowded and panicky. Working from home now why can’t I do this in Tucson ? Or maybe I’ll just get laid off who knows its all full Costco now.

      1. full Costco now

        My town in NY is completely out of cold cuts!

        Replenishment trucks arrive tomorrow.

        1. Thinking of the more perishalbe foods that are being hoarded, will people just eat it all before it’s end date and get more obese? Or will a lot of this stuff end up in the landfill?

          1. There’s a lot of stupid going on right now. People hoarding perishable food, young people celebrating like this is some vacation….odd times.

          4. And generally people don’t get fat on perishable food. It’s the shelf stable carbs and oils that get ya.

    4. ya have to learnin’em, fer when’s there us a REAL Cata$trophe! … this is a workout until WW ll.9

      Taiwan? “…that belong$ to thee Motherland.” $cram!

    5. I bought a 15 pound bag of dry dog food in case I need to self quarantine. The pooch hasn’t missed a wink of sleep worrying about food.

  6. ‘A healthy pension system at the end of over a decade of extraordinary investment returns should be overfunded. Perhaps it is credible to be sanguine about falling a bit short of the 80 percent threshold after ten years of investment doldrums, but it is absurd, and dangerous, to pretend such a level of funding is adequate after ten or more years of spectacular investment gains. And it isn’t just pensions’

    ‘It’s possible the bonds will sell for less than expected, but also possible that there will be no buyers’

    I posted a report from this same newspaper a couple of years ago that every single downtown SF project was for sale. The bubble popped out there years ago.

  8. Remember the food truck lady and how some here asked, “if times were so good, how come she didn’t save any money?”

    Looks like lots of people didn’t save anything.

    19 New Foreclosures in COCONINO County, AZ

    1. Looks like lots of people didn’t save anything.

      But they all had late model pickups or luxury cars.

      1. When I took possession of a foreclosure a couple of weeks ago, I got a ring of the doorbell. It was a mobile dog washing service looking for the previous owner. She could pay to have Fido spiffed up, but couldn’t pay the mortgage.

    2. ‘Sen. Mitt Romney (R., Utah) on Monday backed giving each American adult $1,000 to help ensure families and workers can meet their short-term obligations and increase spending in the economy. Among Democrats, Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Sherrod Brown of Ohio propose sending $2,000 to every adult and child below a set income, with future payments in July and then quarterly, until unemployment levels drop after an expected rise. Last week, Reps. Ro Khanna (D., Calif.) and Tim Ryan (D., Ohio) proposed sending a check between $1,000 and $6,000 to every American who earned less than $65,000 last year.’

      “To me, this is about cash,” Mr. Ryan said. “It’s about cash to workers and about cash to business people, as quickly as we possibly can so we don’t start missing mortgages and car payments.”

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-washingtons-stimulus-frenzy-the-prospect-of-billions-of-unpaid-bills-11584484157

      1. propose sending $2,000 to every adult and child below a set income,

        set income? MMT is this how it works ?

        1. Directly to the people? HA. The banks will ensure that MMT will be supply-side top-down, so they can skim a little for the “MGTOW miss” before passing the rest on to the poors.

        2. propose sending $2,000 to every adult and child below a set income

          Sounds like more 80″ TVs are gonna get sold.

          1. “Sounds like more 80″ TVs are gonna get sold.”

            At the rate things are moving the 80″ TVs will be plundered, and then the checks will roll-out.

      2. The politicians are working feverishly behind closed doors to pick the winners and losers of this “crisis.”

      4. As long as they keep arguing over how much and who gets it, it might not happen. Meanwhile:

        The Colorado Department of Labor and Employment has seen a massive spike in new unemployment insurance claims as the spread of the new coronavirus and drastic measures being taken to curtail its spread make their impacts felt on businesses in the state.

        On Tuesday there were more 6,800 “attempts to file” for unemployment insurance through the state’s system before it was shut down for maintenance at 4:30 p.m., according to Cher Haavind, spokeswoman for the labor department. That followed 3,900 claims being filed on Monday.

        A week prior, on March 9, just 400 people filed, 1,600% fewer than did so Tuesday morning, according to state officials.
        .
        .
        The flood of online claims was so large it led to technical problems with the state’s online system that may have prevented some people from successfully filing.

        I’m sure this is happening elsewhere.

  9. ‘Six apartment complexes are about to open Downtown and two recently built ones are still filling up, adding up to 1,000 empty apartments in the center city and the biggest test yet of how deep the audience is for center city living. There is such a glut of new apartments that the real estate service CoStar concluded that Downtown’s ‘explosive growth has finally outpaced demand.’ Downtown’s ‘demand drivers haven’t gone anywhere, but it does appear, for the first time in years, they have oversaturated the market with supply’

    These outfits like Costar haven’t warned off an oversupply in one single market that I’ve seen. “Everybody wants to live in downtown Columbus!”

    ‘Cue sighs of relief from renters: Multifamily is going to have a big year in 2020. Experts forecast that builders will add 370,942 units over the year, a whopping 50 percent increase from 2019’

    1. ‘Malls in dense, urban locations have in recent years have generally been more profitable than those in sparsely-populated areas, because foot traffic is typically stronger. But with the coronavirus spreading at a faster rate in metropolitan areas, many of these malls are poised to take a big hit. Some tenants, likely to be hurt by falling foot traffic and by orders from the authorities to close, may struggle to pay their rent.’

      “People will go back to the malls” when the pandemic is over, said Thomas Dobrowski, vice chairman at NKF Capital Markets. ”But rents may have to be reset materially to keep the lights on.”

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-already-taking-big-toll-on-urban-malls-11584446532

      1. There was a huge expansion of the UTC mall in San Diego. Anyone been over there recently? Curious what it is like right now. I had to help a friend out with a trip to Ikea over the weekend and the place full of people. Was surprised. Commercial rents got so ridiculous businesses were closing everywhere. My favorite Taiwanese hot pot place closed because they kept raising the rent. But rents kept going up because speculators were driving up commercial RE and needed higher rents to justify the valuations.

        On another note, why is it that people you know who complain about you driving a truck are the first people to ask for help moving sh#t?

        1. Anyone been over there recently?

          About a month ago to return some clothes. That’s about all I ever do there: return clothes bought online after an appointment in the area. The mall reminds me of my NYC days when I was a single professional with disposable income not going to health care costs. I really hate the trolley extension.

        2. I had to help a friend out with a trip to Ikea over the weekend

          Was anyone hoarding the Swedish meatballs?

  10. Harbor Bluffs, FL Housing Prices Crater 14% As One Pinellas County Broker Shared, “If You Have A House On The Gulf Coast, Dump It For Whatever It Will Fetch And Do It Soon”

    https://www.zillow.com/harbor-bluffs-fl/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist stated, “If you paid more than $500 for an acre of land, you got ripped off.

  11. Silver has gone absolutely nuts. Yesterday on a whim I got a few 2019 silver coins for $17.50. Today I don’t see any 2019 coins, but 2018 coins were $43. I’m not even sure I saw that right.

    2. $43

      Where are you seeing that?

      When I was a tadpole, my dad would come home on payday with a pocket full of silver dollars. Actual money.

      1. Both SD and JD. It appears to depend on which mint, and how much they have left in stock. Less-known mint coins can be as low as $16, but more popular stuff starts at $25. (not that I’m an expert.)

        1. Less-known mint coins can be as low as $16, but more popular stuff starts at $25.”

          yea so pass..

          1. If you’ve got a fever maybe try ebay old Peace Dollars.

            Why do debtors have an irresistible urge to speculate?

          2. I have the cash for it. I spent a few more dollars for 90% lean grass-fed beef instead of the el-cheapo 70% beef. Am I not allowed to do that because I have a mortgage?

            And I’m STILL waiting for a renter to show me the check where they pre-paid 15-30 years of rent.

          3. “Why do debtors have an irresistible urge to speculate?”

            When you’re negative net worth, you’re desperate to conceal it anyway possible.

          5. And I’m STILL waiting for a renter to show me the check where they pre-paid 15-30 years of rent.

            LOL, yeah.

            I remember seeing someone on here claim their apartment rent hadn’t increased in 10 years or something like that. Please! I’ve been renting for many years, in different cities. Rent always goes up, whether it’s a new or an older place.

          8. Well Blue, that’s the point. If you’re going to expect a homebuyer to come up with enough cash to buy a house outright, then you should also ask renters to come up with enough cash to pay 30 years of rent outright. Yet it’s the mortgage holders who get the flack.

          9. it’s the mortgage holders who get the flack.

            Correct, because they aren’t real good at long math.

          10. REALTOR, I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

          12. My rent stayed the same for about 8 years and only went up 20% over the last 2 years due to property tax increase. Its still less than 10% of my salary. To buy similar would run 500-700K, plus maintenance and property taxes. Not saying where, its too damn nice here and I don’t want you suckheads anywhere near me.

            I will admit I got lucky, and my landlord is a long timer who appreciates good tenants, which apparently are in short supply.

    3. It’s greed by the coin dealers. Never in my life have I seen such a money grab going on everywhere as I do right now. Says a lot about all of these people. They’re citing “shortage.” If there were a shortage of silver, the spot price would not be trending towards $10 per ounce. The same people who are freaking the fawk out and buying tp, dog food and guns are rushing to buy silver coins, so the precious metals dealers decided to gouge them. Just look at the buy/sell spreads. That’s where the greed’s at. They’re still only paying spot for the coins as of yesterday.

      1. Right now only a tiny fraction of the public have precious metals in their portfolios. Thanks to the MSM’s journalistic omertà when it comes to any mention of the Fed’s pernicious role in debasing the currency and destroying the proles’ purchasing power, most of the sheeple have no idea that these Keynesian fraudsters are pushing us down the road to Weimar Republic 2.0. But enough are figuring it out that demand for physical precious metals is surging, and could soon turn into a stampede as the bursting of the Everything Bubble results in another orgy of counterfeiting by the Fed.

  12. “Coronavirus update: 201,436 diagnosed COVID-19 cases and 8,006 deaths”

    I’m not a disease expert, but just eyeballing these numbers suggests a fatality rate of above 4% among confirmed cases.

    1. In Italy, the number dead is about 50% of the number recovered. You can find whatever you want in statistics.

      1. Makes sense.

        They have an aging population, and a case count that is overwhelming local health resources, which can increase the mortality rate compared to if everyone who needs intensive care can get it.

          1. papering over the numbers

            I doubt that too. What they won’t tell us is if most of them are among the 300,000 migrant Chinese workers who slave in their factories. If it’s not that, no idea why Norther Italy would be such a hot spot.

      2. Has anyone tested the recovered patients to see if the body builds up any kind of immunity? The symptoms seems to be all over the map. There were some instances that looked like re-infection too. Later it seems that those people got a two-phase case, where the second phase is serious enough for the ICU. And there are some examples of permanent lung damage.

        Maybe this will look like the past few centuries, where people walked around with limps and scars left over from polio or diphtheria or smallpox. Only this time people will carry oxygen and cpap for decades.

        1. Maybe this will look like the past few centuries, where people walked around with limps and scars left over from polio or diphtheria or smallpox. Only this time people will carry oxygen and cpap for decades.

          Oh, joy.

        2. And there are some examples of permanent lung damage. ‘

          Huh.. I had valley Fever a few years ago I have a scar in one lung but don’t notice it .. too much. If you live you live unless you’re a long distance runner high or high altitude person or whatnot.

          My Titers are finally normal just in time for this dang thing

    2. 1 hour ago

      About 2 percent of reported cases have been fatal, but many experts say the death rate could be lower. That’s because early in an outbreak, mild illnesses may not be reported. If only people with severe illness — who are more likely to die — seek care, the virus will appear much more deadly than it really is because of all the uncounted people with milder symptoms.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/28/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus/

    1. “I’m a bar owner with no other job; I cant even apply for unemployment,” she said. “We have a mortgage on this place. I have two other home mortgages, and two car payments along with the normal monthly bills that most people have. I also have three young children to provide for. What do I do to pay my bills?”

      IMHO, their payments are going to stop, and the fed will deal with the lenders. I hope you have savings for food, electricity, etc.

      1. That’s what happens when you run an unsuccessful business leveraged to the hilt. Bet she drives a $40k SUV and lives in a suburban mansion.

      2. Picking nits here: “Until then, the National Grid power bill is due soon. That’s between $500 and $600.”

        Their power consumption should decline with the doors closed.

      3. The article fails to mention all the friends and family that told her most bars and restaurants fail within five years and that putting all her eggs in this basket was a bad idea. Or that a simple google search on success rates in various business sectors would have provided similar information in about as much time as would take to type “bar restaurant failure rate”.

      4. “Kennedy and Henderson each invested $30,000 last July to buy the tavern, formally known as Lew’s Sports Bar. They put $20,000 into it for a new cooler, pizza oven and floors. They opened under the new name in September.”

        I assume 60k is for the down payment? Since they have a mortgage for the place. What a dump (see pic). How much did they pay for the place?

  14. The Financial Times
    Coronavirus
    Second wave of coronavirus cases hits Asia
    Rise of imported cases prompts officials to tighten restrictions on new arrivals
    Workers prepare to disinfect as a precaution against the new coronavirus at a local market in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, March 18, 2020. For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms. For some it can cause more severe illness.
    (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)
    Authorities in South Korea have been rattled by the emergence of new clusters of coronavirus cases © AP
    FT Reporters 5 hours ago

    The number of coronavirus cases has spiked across Asia, crushing hopes that the region had contained the outbreak.

    Officials in South Korea, Taiwan and parts of China and south-east Asia are rushing through new measures after a second wave of new infections following weeks of declines.

    Experts say the sudden increase in cases has revealed the limits of both China’s sweeping lockdown of citizens and of the massive public testing and social distancing campaigns rolled out across Asia.

    But it also highlights growing anxieties about new cases coming from abroad. The number of so-called imported infections has risen sharply as people flee the escalating coronavirus outbreak in Europe.

    “What many people hadn’t recognised is that it is only a temporary success, it is not a permanent success,” said Ben Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong.

    “There is a challenge to containment by the increasing number of imported infections in all of these locations at the moment from Europe, but in the future it could be from other parts of the world as well,” he added.
    …

      1. Yes, that seems to be what they’re doing, although inadvertently. At the end of this, we’re ALL going to get it, just a matter of when and how bad.

  15. I guess interest rates are not necessarily the only price that can go negative in the wake of a decade of artificially suppressed bond yields.

    1. Sometimes, HODLing costs overwhelm prospective price appreciation.

      Oil
      Published 51 mins ago
      Oil prices could fall below zero: Analyst
      Crude surplus could overwhelm global storage
      By Jonathan Garber FOXBusiness
      The Schork Report Publisher Stephen Schork discusses his outlook for the oil markets.
      Oil ‘could go considerably lower’: The Schork Report publisher

      The Schork Report Publisher Stephen Schork discusses his outlook for the oil markets.

      Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
      …

    1. There’s a difference between paper pm and physical. Banks are dumping paper to cover margins but buying physical at the same time. Individuals looking to capitalize on the lower prices are caught in the middle.

      3. From what I hear local coin shops are being swamped with customers and orders, with premiums for silver (which closed at an ask price of $12.07 today) around $5 or more – which means the street price, the one that matters, is $17 an oz. In addition, good luck trying to find any bullion coins online, as just about everything appears to be sold out. So the price of “paper” gold and silver does not seem to reflect actual supply and demand fundamentals.

      5. Here’s a link to SD Bullion’s Silver Eagle page. Just about everything listed is out of stock. You can pre-order 2020 Silver Eagles, but although Kitco shows an ask price of $12.07 an oz, SD Bullion’s cash (wire) or check price is $23. That’s quite a spread between the notional (paper) price, and the real world price. They also claim to be experiencing extremely high order volumes, and I believe them. So there’s a serious divergence between the paper price, and the real-world price (if you can find any left).

        https://sdbullion.com/silver/us-mint-american-silver-eagle-coins/silver-american-eagles-1-ounce

        2. It’s just price gouging. They don’t want to buy your silver. What does that tell you?

    1. I peeked some of the tech stocks…

      Still way overvalued….another 70% fall in tech stocks is what should happen.

      MOAR DEBT IS NOT THE ANSWER

    1. Down 1335 at the closing bell. Futures went right on cratering without a break. Now it’s time for the popcorn as the chopper revs up.

    1. Was a response to…

      “If everyone had at least a mild or asymptomatic case, 2% would be catastrophic.”

        1. “I am a math expert, though.”

          I know that from years of reading this blog I am merely calling into question your extrapolations of this strain of virus with very limited data.

          1. I have been qualifying my calculations to make clear that they only apply to confirmed cases.

            The case count and fatality rate among unconfirmed cases, both in the U.S. and abroad, are known unknowns.

          1. “I have been qualifying my calculations to make clear that they only apply to confirmed cases.”

            I’m sure you’ll say not my numbers but it is your post.

            “between 160 million and 210 million Americans could contract the disease over as long as a year.”

            “the number of deaths under the CDC’s scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.”

            Professor Bear
            March 14, 2020 at 6:51 pm
            If this goes on for an entire year, you can stick a fork in a lot of things for 2020.

            March 13, 2020 – 04:07 PM EDT
            Worst-case coronavirus models show massive US toll
            By Reid Wilson

            Statistical models meant to project the potential reach of the coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease suggest more than a million Americans could die if the nation does not take swift action to stop its spread as quickly as possible.

            At least three different models built by epidemiology experts suggest that millions of Americans will contract the coronavirus, even in optimistic projections, based on what they know of its spread in China and the United States so far.

            One model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested that between 160 million and 210 million Americans could contract the disease over as long as a year. Based on mortality data and current hospital capacity, the number of deaths under the CDC’s scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.

          2. I may have understood things incorrectly, but my take is the area under the two curves is roughly equal, i.e., the same number of infections will occur. However, the flatter curve will require fewer number of ICU beds with a ventilator as they are cleaned and reused.

            “You don’t really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother.” —Albert Einstein

          3. rms you’re correct. That’s the main reason we’re all staying home — to save the old and sick. Not to avoid it ourselves. I wonder how many people realize that. I’ve been home for 6 days and I’m already feeling apocalyptic.

            I wonder how mgspiffy is doing?

          2. “Is Angela Merkel part of the U.S. deep state? Or Fox News reporters?”

            She’s a New World Order gal.

            Angela Merkel complains that Trump is Destroying The New World Order

            May 19, 2019

            German chancellor Angela Merkel has admitted that the New World Order is ‘under threat’ due to the rise of President Trump and the trend of Trump-supporting populist leaders winning elections around the world in the past year.

            The German leader slammed the rejection of open borders and globalism, and poured scorn on the patriotic movement currently sweeping across Europe, the U.S, Brazil, Australia and other parts of the world.

            “Frankly speaking, the country I have the honor to represent and where I am chancellor has difficulties. And polarization is something that we see in our country as well, which we haven’t had for decades,” Merkel said at Davos.

            Merkel is just the latest leader at Davos to criticize a protectionist and isolationist stance towards the world’s problems. Such comments appear to be directed towards President Donald Trump who has adopted an unapologetic “America First” stance in his foreign and economic policies.

            https://pcmdnews.com/angela-merkel-complains-that-trump-is-destroying-the-new-world-order/

          3. Angela Merkel complains that Trump is Destroying The New World Order

            So…elections really do have consequences. His base will be happy to hear that.

      4. Virus expert: As much as 70 percent of world’s population could get coronavirus
        By Justine Coleman – 03/02/20 07:51 PM EST

        A Harvard University epidemiologist says that as much as 70 percent of the world’s population could get the coronavirus.

        Marc Lipsitch told CBS News in an interview airing Monday that “40 to 70 percent” of the global population could become infected with coronavirus and that it’s “almost inevitable” that the virus will impact the “entire globe.” He added that 1 percent of those who develop symptoms could die.

        “That is a projection, so we will find out if it’s accurate as things go on,” Lipsitch said. “It is the best estimate that I’ve been able to make based on a combination of the mathematical models that we use to track and predict epidemics.”
        …

  21. I guess central banks will most likely come out as the victors after this debt bubble collapse.

    Coronavirus a god send for the central banks and other debt pushers.

  22. This stunning chart shows the coronavirus spreading slowly in tropical countries

    ‘A research paper came up with a similar finding. Looking at 100 Chinese cities, it found that high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19.’

    “This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19,” the study found.’

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-stunning-chart-shows-the-coronavirus-spreading-slowly-in-tropical-countries-2020-03-17?itm_source=parsely-api&mod=mw_more_headlines

    1. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19

      Hopefully this is true! 🙂

    2. I have also read it may be related to UV exposure – gotta make that vitamin D to help the immune system. Good thing we’re headed into summer. If humidity is a factor, might make sense for people in dry climates to get a humidifier.

      Thankfully I’m in a subtropical zone surrounded by plenty of food sources, work from home, net short the market, and renting for dirt cheap 🙂

  24. Another study agrees: “The researchers found that low humidity hindered the immune response of the animals in three ways. It prevented cilia, which are hair-like structures in airways cells, from removing viral particles and mucus. It also reduced the ability of airway cells to repair damage caused by the virus in the lungs. The third mechanism involved interferons, or signaling proteins released by virus-infected cells to alert neighboring cells to the viral threat. In the low-humidity environment, this innate immune defense system failed.”

  25. Zimbabwe Ben and Yellen the Felon, not content with blowing the biggest bubble in the history of the planet – and setting the stage for a global financial crisis that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park – are now advocating for the Fed to buy up corporate debt. You heard that right. These Keynesian fraudsters with their “No Billionaire Left Behind” monetary policies enabled corporations to binge on cheap credit to buy back their own shares at Ponzi prices with borrowed Yellen Bux, and now that artificially high stock valuations are cratering, these corporations are screwed. Now these Fed scumbags are brazenly advocating for even more brazen swindles against the 99% by moving corporate debt to the public ledgers. And the sheeple, rather than tarring and feathering these criminals, are rallying behind a candidate who exemplifies the crony capitalist status quo and the Obama-era Wall Street bailouts.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-yellen-suggest-fed-should-move-to-start-buying-corporate-debt-2020-03-18

    1. Is that suggesting the current crisis is being used as a way to help the rich get richer? I sure think it is!

      The .01% won’t be satisfied until they own or control everything.

  26. It may not always feel so easy to find an apartment that meets your needs at a price you can afford, but the situation could be improving in the Washington, D.C., region and across the country.

    These idiots don’t seem to understand that the central bankers’ Everything Bubble is bursting, which will wipe trillions in fake Yellen Bux valuations off “luxury” apartments and jam down rents to affordable levels.

  27. Too bad the wisdom of the ages emphatically does not apply in woke California.”

    To be “woke” means, by definition, that you scorn virtues that governed societal behavior and human interaction for centuries. Now the price of that rejection of morality and virtues is going to be paid in full. Feminists will be screaming for protectors and providers, and soy boys will most emphatically not be up to the task.

  29. Bonds are crashing too. The everything bubble, it’s a poppin’ folks. Grab some of that cash while you still can.

        1. +1. I love watching the lemmings who bought into this Ponzi market getting their heads handed to them.

    2. Doesn’t it make more sense to mandate that the high risk group to die from C-19 stay home, along with giving them certain hours for shopping.

      I also don’t believe that seniors on Social Security who don’t work should be given extra checks like the working people need. I have talked to other Seniors about this and they feel the same way.

      Now, maybe the government can help with the isolation of the high risk groups that can’t do it for themselves, but it seems like it’s easier to do it that way.

      1. Exactly my thought. If this primarily strikes the elderly – why not just isolate them and let the rest of the economy carry on? Wouldn’t that be better for everyone?

        1. That is/was sort of my take as well, but we really don’t know how bad this is yet. I have read anecdotes of people under 50 and even under 40 going from testing positive and feeling ok to organ failure in under 24 hours. We just don’t know enough about this and I’m pretty sure no one (aside from the deranged libtards) wants to kill the economy over “just another flu bug”

          1. testing positive and feeling ok to organ failure in under 24 hours. That response to COVID-19 will almost certainly turn out to be extremely rare. But it remains to be seen.

  30. Los Alamitos, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Orange County Housing Market Turns Toxic On Skyrocketing Mortgage Defaults And Collapsing Demand

    https://www.zillow.com/los-alamitos-ca/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As an noted economist said, “With 25 million excess, empty and defaulted houses out there, there is no need to build more.”

  32. “President invokes wartime authority”

    Cancel the elections and declare yourself a dictator.

    I would like to see this just to get some heads explode.

    1. It may be the practical thing to declare Trump as “Il Duce” considering the only other option is a man who would fail a driver’s license test in most states.

    2. Can somebody tell Joe Biden to shut up.

      To display Joe Biden like he was the current President ,when he isn’t even a Government employee, is wrong. He is just a heckler to the people in charge now.

      Who really cares what Biden would do. Biden is a senile old coot, and it’s elder abuse what his family is doing to him.

      No sane Political party would run a man that isn’t able like Joe. Really, it tells me how nuts the Dems have become.

      1. Democrats, LLC has declared Chapter 7 bankruptcy and is liquidating. All of the head honchos (Clintons, Obama, Gore, Kerry) took golden parachutes and are long gone. Biden is the bag holder who will go down with the ship.

  33. What happened to the real estate experts who said that coronavirus would have no effect on the housing market?

    2. Is this the nuclear winter for used home sales?

      Redfin, Re/Max and other brokerage firms cancel open houses as coronavirus hits the real-estate industry
      Published: March 18, 2020 at 10:31 a.m. ET
      By Jacob Passy
      ‘The coronavirus has just made the future we’ve been preparing for come sooner,’ Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman said in a blog post
      Redfin is suspending open houses and promoting virtual tours as the coronavirus outbreak complicates the real-estate process.

      Referenced Symbols
      RDFN
      -25.71%
      RMAX
      -34.51%
      BRK.A
      -7.39%
      RLGY
      -30.23%

      Brokerage firms are cancelling open houses and promoting virtual tours of homes as buyers and sellers alike become concerned about contracting the novel coronavirus through the real-estate process.

      National real estate brokerage Redfin (RDFN, -25.71%) is cancelling future open houses, the company announced Monday. The company is also limiting in-person tours of its homes to two customers per tour.

      Re/Max (RMAX, -34.51%) is also advising its agents not to hold open houses at this time. “To support government and health agency efforts to stem the spread of COVID-19, we encourage every member of the organization — including agents, brokers, managers and staff — to adhere to conditions set forth in your communities,” Re/Max CEO Adam Contos told employees. “We also recommend you consider not holding open houses for the time being. This is a global emergency, and everyone must take it seriously.”
      …

  34. From ZH:

    “And it may come as a shock to some but ever since the financial crisis nothing has been actually fixed, and instead the Fed stepped in at every market stress event to inject more liquidity, aiding the issuance of even more debt, and kicking the can while while helping mask the symptoms of the crisis, only made the underlying financial instability even more acute. Meanwhile conventional wisdom that the US banking system was rendered more stable now are dead wrong, with the public and countless financial professionals fooled by the nearly two trillion in excess reserves (we all saw what happened when this number dropped to a precarious “low” of “only” $1.3 trillion in September of 2019) injected by the Fed in recent years. All this liquidity upon liquidity has only made the system that much more reliant on the Fed’s constant bailouts and liquidity injections.”

    1. It’s a great time to be long on cash and short on leverage.

      And good luck to HODLers of “balanced funds”, which are constructed based on the assumption of negatively correlated returns on stocks and bonds.

      Market Extra
      Why are bonds failing to act like a safe-haven as stocks sell off ?
      Published: March 18, 2020 at 3:29 p.m. ET
      By Sunny Oh
      Money managers have relied on long-dated bonds to serve as ballast for the broader portfolio

      In the “everything has to go” sale sweeping through commodities, corporate debt, and equities, investors have seen the value of their usual sturdy government bonds buckle even as risk assets came under pressure in the past few trading sessions.

      This counterintuitive action blows in the face of the widely held expectation that U.S. Treasurys would remain a port of shelter from the plunge in equities, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic’s rising number of cases in the U.S.

      Money managers and financial advisors have relied especially on long-dated bonds to serve as ballast for the broader portfolio when financial markets came under stress.

      The 10-year Treasury note yield (TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.170%) traded at 1.115%, up around 17 basis points from the beginning of the week. Yet the S&P 500 (SPX, -8.545%) is staring at a near 14% drop over the same period.

      Some economists have suggested bond traders could be waking up to the fact that the U.S. government’s fiscal deficits will start to finally matter, and that the broader investment community will struggle to take down the U.S.’s yawning debts.

      According to that logic, the wave of debt supply from the fiscal stimulus packages discussed by U.S. policymakers this week could overwhelm investors and push values for government bonds lower, and yields higher.

      “Fed officials have often worried about increased government spending on the retiring, baby boom workers, and now it looks like the debt deluge that sends bond yields soaring could come years before it was expected,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG.

      But market participants said the real reason driving rates higher was more mundane and frightening — investors needed to raise cash to cover their losses.

      “You tend to think of Treasurys as a safe haven. At the same time, it’s the deepest and most liquid market. Treasurys are a great place to start if you need cash,” said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, in an interview.

      Compounding the selloff is the current lack of liquidity as primary dealers, the select group of 24 financial institutions who buys bonds directly from the government, have been unwilling to buy bonds and serve their role as the middlemen in the market.

      As a result, traffic in Treasurys trading has largely been one way – selling, Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities, told MarketWatch.
      …

    2. $ynchronized.Global.$lowing is a $ocial.Media Digital.Di$informational myth!

      Coming $oon: “$oft.Landing$”

    4. Bond Report
      Treasurys sell off as investors rush to raise cash
      Published: March 18, 2020 at 1:16 p.m. ET
      By Sunny Oh

      U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Wednesday as investors rushed to raise cash by selling liquid assets amid worries about the extra flood of debt government’s are issuing for fiscal stimulus packages to combat the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic.

      What are Treasurys doing?

      The 10-year Treasury note yield (TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.203%) climbed 14.5 basis points to 1.139%, a day after the benchmark maturity recorded its biggest one-day climb since September 2008. The 2-year note rate (TMUBMUSD02Y, 0.547%) fell 3.7 basis points to 0.416%. The 30-year bond yield (TMUBMUSD30Y, 1.804%) surged 19.1 basis points to 1.765%. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
      …

    5. Everything must go, including safe haven assets like gold and long-dated Treasurys.

      Watching and waiting! 🙂

    6. The Financial Times
      Markets volatility
      Global stocks, oil prices and government bonds tumble
      …
      Colby Smith and Jennifer Ablan in New York, Tommy Stubbington and Philip Georgiadis in London, Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong an hour ago

      Global stocks, oil prices and government bonds fell sharply on Wednesday, indicating forced selling across financial markets and raising doubts about governments’ ability to contain the economic damage inflicted by the coronavirus outbreak.

      The prospect of slumping energy demand sent the US oil benchmark WTI crude down about 24 per cent to $20 a barrel, the third worst day on record. Brent, the international benchmark, dropped about 9 per cent to a 17-year low of $26 a barrel.
      …
      The S&P 500 index closed down 5 per cent, off its lows for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off more than 6 per cent,
      …

      The US dollar rallied and sterling fell 4 per cent in violent trading. The UK currency hit a low of $1.1463, having closed the previous day at $1.2050

      “There’s more bad news about the potential severity and duration of the global economic sudden stop, continued signs of stress in the functioning of markets and concern about a generalised financial deleveraging,” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz.

      After rallying early on Wednesday, US Treasuries sold off sharply, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 0.12 percentage points to 1.20 per cent. Yields on European government debt rose to their highest levels in weeks as fund managers came under pressure to return cash to investors and were forced to dump their most liquid holdings, according to traders. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.

      “I don’t think we’ve seen a day like this which is so obvious that investors are going to cash,” said Yousef Abbasi, global markets strategist for INTL FCStone Financial in New York. “Anything you thought would indicate a market bottom, throw it out the window“.
      …

  37. Additionally, houses may become cheaper as more enter the market as a result of the coronavirus, making now a a good time for homebuyers, Ames said. ‘The benefit for a buyer now … is that sellers may have to make some price adjustments to sell,’ she said.”

    Does she mean like 60% off kind of adjustment?

    1. Will home sellers have to write letters to prospective buyers begging for them to come out of quarantine in order to make offers.

    1. +1 The folks who keep the machines running and do the paperwork (sound familiar?) have to see that something is being done to save their 401k plans.

  39. $ad. … Bigly, yugely,… $ad.

    POLITIC$ / MARCH 18, 2020

    Last of Dow’$ gain$ during Trump presidency di$appear

    Reuters / By Noel Randewich

    (Reuters) – As Wall Street extended its deep sell-off on Friday over fears about the coronavirus, the Dow Jones Industrial Average erased the last of the once sizeable gains it made under U.S. President Donald Trump.

    Wednesday’s drop left the Dow 3% lower than where it was on Jan. 20, 2017, the day of Trump’s inauguration.

    Overall, the S&P 500 has slumped more than 30% from its Feb 19 peak and ended a bull market that began in 2009.

    Reporting by Noel Randewich; Editing by Nick Zieminski

    1. In all fairness, you can’t blame the consequences of an act of God on the current occupant of the WH.

      1. “China Karma”, can bee con$dered as a “$ort.of.act.of.divine.intervention$”

        dtRumpsis: “China.Viru$”, … China!” (Today)

      2. $ticks & $tones my break my bone$ … but name$ will only inflame me! (or, something like that …)

        ‘I’m married to an Asian’: Kellyanne Conway responds to criticism of a White House official reportedly calling the coronaviru$ the ‘Kung-flu’

        By Grace Panetta / Business InsiderMarch 18, 2020,

        Other top Republican officials have also maintained that calling it the “China virus” or “Wuhan virus” is necessary to lay the blame for the current situation on the actions of the Chinese Communist Party, the ruling party in China, for its inadequate response to the virus and attempts to silence whistleblowers who first sounded the alarm.

        But critics say that instead of holding the Chinese government accountable, conflating a virus with an entire country and nationality unfairly stigmatizes and ultimately fuels xenophobia against people of Asian and Chinese descent, who are not responsible for the virus’ outbreak or the Chinese government’s response to it.

        Sonam Sheth contributed to this report.

        1. The historical convention is to name an epidemic by where it came from. For example Ebola.

          Also, emphasizing that it is indeed the Wuhan, or Chinese, flu might be a push back on the snowflakes in China saying it is the American flu.

          1. “The historical convention is to name an epidemic by where it came from.”

            Someone at the White House conference this morning mentioned, “Kung-Flu.”

  41. Moscow Mitch’s pal, Czar Putain, laughing @ USA!

    WORLD NEW$ / MARCH 18, 2020

    Russia deploying coronaviru$ di$information to $ow panic in West, EU document says

    Reuters / By Robin Emmott

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to wor$en the impact$ of the coronaviru$, generate panic and $ow di$trust.

    The overarching aim of Kremlin disinformation is to aggravate the public health crisis in Western countries…in line with the Kremlin’s broader strategy of attempting to subvert European societies,” the document produced by the EU’s foreign policy arm, the European External Action Service, said.

    1. I got a figure off the web that about 17 thousand people over 65 die yearly per 100 thousand . 80% of those deaths are the over 80 group.

      So, if those figures are close to correct, I’m wondering how long these seniors had to live anyway that surcome to C19.

      Also on a yearly basis thousands of people die from Big Pharma side effects. One wonders if people on numerous Pharma are weaker in terms of combating C19.

      There are so many questions about this virus.

      The 1918 Spanish Flue killed 50 to 60 million World wide. Right now we are approaching 9 thousand declared deaths by C19 World wide. While C19 is a killer, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to come close to the Spanish flu in 1918.

      But, no one knows for sure yet.

      1. Feels like the winning.thee.lottery, in rever$e. The closer it gets to you, the woeser the possible outcomes!

        Europe:

        Italy coronaviru$ deaths rise by record 475 in a day

        BBC News / 2 hours ago / Coronaviru$ pandemic

        The number of people dying from coronavirus in Italy has risen by 475 in one day to nearly 3,000 – the biggest increase since the outbreak.

        There are a total of 35,713 confirmed cases in the country, with more than 4,000 having successfully recovered.

        Lombardy, the worst-hit region, recorded 319 deaths in one day

      2. a yearly basis thousands of people die from Big Pharma side effects. One wonders if people on numerous Pharma are weaker in terms of combating C19. It may help to think of it the other way around. If those same “people” stopped taking all their pharmaceuticals, they would not thereby become good life insurance risks. Many/most would still be at risk from COVID-19, and also at risk from the common cold. We all have to die of something.

  42. Coming Earning$ + $oft.landing$ = low prophet’$ for the “Orange.jesus” … $ad.

    MARKET$:

    ‘Hell is coming’ — Bill Ackman has dire warning$ for Trump, CEO’$ if dra$tic mea$ures aren’t taken now.

    CNBC / PUBLISHED WED, MAR 18 2020, By Yun Li

    “The hotel industry and the restaurant industry will go bankrupt first, Boeing is on the brink, Boeing will not survive without a government bailout,” Ackman said. “Capitalism does not work in an 18-month shutdown, capitalism can work in a 30-day shutdown.”

    ‘Tsunami’ is coming

    The founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management said he felt a “tsunami” was coming before anyone else raised a red flag about the outbreak.

    Hilton could go to zero

    Ackman predicted that hotel stocks including Hilton could “go to zero” soon if no action is taken. He is a major shareholder in Hilton.

    “Every hotel is going to be shut down in the country. … If we allow this to continue the way we have allowed it to continue, every hotel company in the world is done. No business can survive a period of 18 months without revenue,” Ackman said.

    Shares of Hilton have tanked nearly 50% in March alone, while Marriott plunged 60% this month amid the market turmoil. The S&P 500 tumbled into a bear market last week and the sell-off accelerated on Wall Street as investors feared the coronavirus will tip the economy into a recession. The benchmark was last 29.5% off its record high.

    CNBC’s Eamon Javers, Thomas Franck and Maggie Fitzgerald contributed to this report.

  43. “…begging for them to come out of quarantine…”

    How about throwing in some sweeteners?

    i.e garage filled with 1000 rolls of toilet paper, a pallet of paper towels, your grocery store managers personal cell phone number, and a $2K ‘supermarket sweep’ gift card.

  44. This should be interesting.

    New York Stock Exchange to temporarily close trading floor
    Published: March 18, 2020 at 5:00 p.m. ET
    By Claudia Assis

    The Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE, -8.73%) said late Wednesday that the New York Stock Exchange will temporarily move to fully electronic trading on Monday. “Trading and regulatory oversight of all NYSE-listed securities will continue without interruption,” the exchange operator said. The NYSE equities trading floor in New York, the NYSE options trading floor in New York, and the NYSE Arca Options trading floor in San Francisco are to close, the company said. The move is a “precautionary step to protect the health and well-being of employees and the floor community in response to COVID-19,” it said. “NYSE’s trading floors provide unique value to issuers and investors, but our markets are fully capable of operating in an all-electronic fashion to serve all participants, and we will proceed in that manner until we can re-open our trading floors to our members,” said NYSE President Stacey Cunningham said in a statement. A report on CNBC said the closure was in part due to a NYSE employee testing positive for COVID-19. NYSE did not immediately return a request for confirmation.
    …

  45. 1$t, $40,000,000,086.00+ Billion$ for “Trade.War$.are.ea$y!” payment$ … now debt extension$ for Deere $800,000 tractor$… what’$ next, cat.walk $ubsides for the “$pace.Force” fashion $how?

    BUSINE$$ NEW$ / MARCH 18, 2020

    Calls for U.$. farm debt$, loan relief grows as coronaviru$ spread$

    P.J. Huffstutter

    The FCS system is a leading source of financing for U.S. farmers, and accounted for more than 36% of the nearly $402 billion$ in U.S. farm debt$ as of 2018, according to the most current U$DA data

    The American Farm Bureau Federation’s request was made in a March 17 letter outlining a wide $wath of concern$, ranging from access to farm labor to supply chain worries of the fast-spreading viru$. Many U.S. economic $ectors have $ought federal government relief$.

    “For many livestock producers, (USDA) Farm Service Agency loan payments are due now,” Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall said in the letter. “Can USDA consider temporary relief (such as deferment or loan adjustment) to help producers respond to the impact the pandemic is having on normal marketing and prices?”

    April live cattle futures LCJ0 have dropped 12% this month on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are down 25% since the start of the year.

    Efforts to secure debt assistance for farmers have been growing this week, as the fast-spreading virus triggers emergency lockdowns and ca$h injection$ un$een since World War Two.

    1. normal marketing and prices?”

      That’s an oxymoron when viewing the massive level of debt involved.

    1. The Financial Times
      Share buy-backs
      Bank-led freeze on stock buybacks could spread across US market
      Analysts say that lack of large, price-insensitive buyers could magnify sell-offs
      Richard Henderson in New York 8 hours ago

      The US stock market could be losing one of its most solid sources of support, as big banks lead a wave of companies putting share buybacks on hold.

      Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were among eight banks this week to announce a pause in share repurchases until the third quarter, saying they would use the funds instead “to provide maximum support” to the coronavirus-hit economy. Airlines including American and Delta have also frozen buyback programmes, blaming damage from the viral outbreak.

      Some analysts worry that by putting programmes on hold, companies are removing a pillar that the stock market has come to depend on. Repurchases have helped to power a record run in share prices that hit a peak last month before a rapid tumble into a bear market.
      …

  47. As I mentioned yesterday, I took the car in for recall service. When I went to pick it up I wandered into the showroom to kick some tires. The showroom was deserted. They had a “compact” SUV in the showroom, a new model they just introduced. The windows sticker: $30K. For a Kia. They also had the next size up in the showroom (still a smallish SUV with a 4 banger). $36K.

    Who can afford these things? Kia is supposed to be a “budget” brand, but all I saw was luxury. Even the lowly Soul model in the showroom was mid 20’s. Of course they had all the doo dads: the lane position, the auto brake, Bose speakers, leather, sun roofs, fancy climate control, you name it.

    Anyway, the current car only has 43K miles and is paid for, so I skedaddled out of there and went home,.

    1. Talked to a guy at a Chevy dealership today and he said there was no traffic the last couple of days and he heard that GM might shut down production for 30 days. Said he had a line of credit that would last a month if he needed it.

      Besides that there was a twenty something girl on the local news talking about the place she bartends being shutdown for 30 days and not knowing what she was going to do.

      These stories that get posted here about people not having $400 for an emergency all have a face.

      1. “…not knowing what she was going to do.”

        It’s time for a dose of feminine wile and some foodie dates!

      2. These stories that get posted here about people not having $400 for an emergency all have a face.

        If the magic checks show up, I’ll put them in the bank.

        I can imagine what is going through every car salesman’s mind right now: that the dealership might not move a single car in the foreseeable future.

      4. there was a twenty something girl on the local news … not knowing what she was going to do. In my area the manufacturer of Purell is hiring like crazy, they are shipping a greatly increased number of truckloads and containerloads of sanitizers etc. Amazon has 4600 job openings in Ohio. Local groceries are hiring people to restock their shelves, fill pickup orders and in some cases, do deliveries. That’s just off the top of my head. I doubt these jobs are as much fun as bartending, though.

    2. Windows stickers are for DebtDonkeys and WindowLickers.

      Remember… I can ask $50k for my 10 year old Chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that price?

      So it is with all depreciating assets like houses and cars.

      Brooklyn, NY Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Rental Rates Plummet

      https://www.zillow.com/new-york-ny-11236/home-values/

      *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

      Go ahead….. Stamp those hooves…. Do it!🤣

    3. With only 43k miles, at your age, it should last you until you die. Today’s new cars go 250k-300k no problem, unless there is some inherent flaw with the engine design or something.

      1. That’s what I’m thinking. I put synthetic oil in the engine and already had the transmission flushed. It has the bigger engine, non GDI and the transmission is non CVT. The smaller engine has a recall for catching fire.

        The only missing doo-dad I wish it had is the backup camera. I realize I could get one installed if I was willing to replace the stereo with an aftermarket unit with an LCD screen, but it is kind of low priority.

    1. Anyone here feel this temblor? I felt something, but maybe it was the Mexican takeout I ate last night.

  49. An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)_
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub?fbclid=IwAR3HXmAaRvsKQwtD4mT0W6NU4bTJvZnR6f3KLRcsWkXSOGn33dbdR1KyS0Q

    SUMMARY:

    Recent guidelines from South Korea and China report that chloroquine is an effective antiviral therapeutic treatment against Coronavirus Disease 2019. Use of chloroquine (tablets) is showing favorable outcomes in humans infected with Coronavirus including faster time to recovery and shorter hospital stay. US CDC research shows that chloroquine also has strong potential as a prophylactic (preventative) measure against coronavirus in the lab, while we wait for a vaccine to be developed. Chloroquine is an inexpensive, globally available drug that has been in widespread human use since 1945 against malaria, autoimmune and various other conditions.

    2. I laughed when I saw Scott Adams on Twitter asking why the army would still have a bunch of medication stockpiled that had become ineffective for its original purpose. I didn’t bother responding because I knew he wouldn’t see it, but I wanted to say “obviously you’ve never been in the army” :-).

    3. It would be great if any well known & previous tested drug turned out to be helpful. This would make it easier and quicker to put into widespread use.

      1. Actually the Chinese already identified one quite a while ago but in America it costs something like 25k.

  50. Woeser & woeser … or … “It’$ the Viru$ $tupid!” … (James Carville voice)

    Economic Outlook:

    Huge $pike in Google $earches for ‘unemployment benefit$’ give a $tark picture of economic carnage to come.

    MarketWatch / Published: March 18, 2020 / By Jeffry Bartash

    Number of Americans applying for unemployment benefit$ $oaring

    If so, new claims could match the highest levels of the Great Rece$$ion. New joble$$ claim$ peaked at 655,000 in March 2009.

    New claims and a slew of other economic reports over the next several weeks will start to provide a fuller picture of the coronavirus crisis, starting with Thursday’s update on how many Americans sought unemployment benefits in mid-March.

    Now the damage reports are beginning to flood in. Some states such as New York and New Jersey have already announced a big increase in people applying for unemployment benefits. Rhode Island, for example, said nearly 7,000 people filed new jobless claims on Monday, compared to just 160 on the prior Monday.

    “We are seeing a skyrocket in our unemployment insurance claims,” Gov. Gina Raimondo said.

    If those numbers are duplicated around the country, new claims could soar past 300,000 on Thursday for the first time since 2015. Just 10 months ago, they touched a 50-year low of 193,000.

    “I think we are going to see a significant spike tomorrow,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial. “It could be an unsettling number.”

    1. The Governor here in NY ordered all businesses to send half their staff home. Unless the business is Essential. It’s going to be interesting.

    1. Not all Treasurys sold off today.

      So what happens if they can’t sell the emergency one trillion they’re talking about? Does congress amend the Fed’s Charter (temporarily, of course!) so that it can buy them directly from the Treasury Department?

        1. Butch Cassidy & Sundance kid. … there are x3 “Rules.in.a knife.fight!” … (kick.between.the alpha.Male.legs), waaaaaaaaap!!!!!!, rule #1, there’s .no.rules!

    2. Negative government bond yields have arrived on U.S. shores.

      The Financial Times
      US Treasury bonds
      Treasury bill yields turn negative in sign of investor fear
      Analysts say ‘massive’ flight to safety increases demand for cash-like products
      Dollars. us currency. 100 dollar bills
      Yields on short-dated reasury bills fell as yields on longer-dated Treasury bonds rose
      © Masyuk Ivan
      Colby Smith in New York
      2 hours ago

      US Treasury bill yields dipped below zero while longer-dated government debt yields rose on Wednesday in a sign of frightened investors flocking to more easily traded securities during the global market tumult.

      “What you are seeing today is an example of a flight-to-safety on a massive scale,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.

      Ms Jones said Treasury bills — US government debt maturing in one year or less — are seen as more like cash because they are easier to trade than their longer-dated counterparts. She added: “People are desperate for cash.”
      …

  52. Earlier in the day Professor Bear responded to one of my posts with…

    “I am a math expert, though.”

    As I thought about the possibility of a math joust with the Professor these lyrics came to mind.

    Now the last thing I wanted was to get into a fight
    In Jackson Mississippi on a Saturday night
    Especially when there was three of them and only one of me 🙂

    Charlie Daniels Uneasy Rider

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=952h-AJ3Bcg

        1. “I want to reiterate how completely unacceptable the level of violence is that we have seen recently,” Young said. “We will not stand for mass shootings and an increase in crime.”

          Recently?

          AMERICA DOESN’T HAVE A GUN PROBLEM, IT HAS A GANG PROBLEM

          The country’s real “gun culture” is controlled by the urban Democratic machine.

          Sun Dec 30, 2012

          Chicago’s murder numbers have hit that magic 500. Baltimore’s murder toll has passed 200. In Philly, it’s up to 324, the highest since 2007. In Detroit, it’s approaching 400, another record. In New Orleans, it’s almost at 200. New York City is down to 414 from 508. In Los Angeles, it’s over 500. In St. Louis it’s 113 and 130 in Oakland. It’s 121 in Memphis and 76 in Birmingham.

          Washington, D.C., home of the boys and girls who can solve it all, is nearing its own big 100.

          Those 12 cities alone account for nearly 3,200 dead and nearly a quarter of all murders in the United States. And we haven’t even visited sunny Atlanta or chilly Cleveland.

          A breakdown of the Chicago killing fields shows that 83% of those murdered in Chicago last year had criminal records. In Philly, it’s 75%. In Milwaukee it’s 77% percent. In New Orleans, it’s 64%. In Baltimore, it’s 91%. Many were felons who had served time. And as many as 80% of the homicides were gang related.

          Our national murder rate is not some incomprehensible mystery that can only be attributed to the inanimate tools, the steel, brass and wood that do the work. It is largely the work of adult males from age 18 to 39 with criminal records killing other males of that same age and criminal past.

          If this were going on in Rwanda, El Salvador or Sierra Leone, we would have no trouble knowing what to make of it, and silly pearl-clutching nonsense about gun control would never even come up. But this is Chicago, it’s Baltimore, it’s Philly and NOLA; and so we refuse to see that our major cities are in the same boat as some of the worst trouble spots in the world.

          https://archives.frontpagemag.com/fpm/america-doesnt-have-gun-problem-it-has-gang-daniel-greenfield

          1. With 50% of our workers being ordered home, we’re considering strengthening the castle keep.

      3. Yeah, don’t concern yer self’s one bit, eye have the deer Profe$$or back, & it’s levels of orders beyond a … Nerf gun. 🤪

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