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No One Can Say What A Fair Price Is Right Now

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “Airbnb Inc. is considering raising capital from new investors, as the home-sharing giant wrestles with escalating losses due to the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its global business, according to people close to the company .The San Francisco-based startup, which lets people list their properties for rent on its marketplace, has racked up hundreds of millions of dollars in losses this year, one of the people said. All its major markets are getting hammered.”

“Co-founder Nate Blecharczyk’s tweet on the congressional requests provoked a storm of online comments from hosts. One typical response: ‘That’s nice that you’re asking the government to bail us out with loans since @Airbnb has bankrupted us. I literally have $23 in my bank account right now.'”

From Reuters. “The NAR said it was difficult to predict the short-term effects of the coronavirus on future sales. Economists, however, anticipated a sharp decline in sales and possibly home prices, citing previous recessions. ‘Since mortgage agreements effectively constrain many homeowners from selling properties at a loss, sellers must delay any planned sale until the economy recovers,’ said Kwame Donaldson, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. ‘This all translates into a steep decline in existing home sales during recessions.'”

The Seattle Times in Washington. “As late as last week, the mounting number of coronavirus cases in King County seemed to be having a negligible affect on the housing market. But uncertainty has started to creep in. Seattle-based brokerage Redfin, citing market uncertainty, announced Wednesday in an SEC filing that its home-flipping division would temporarily stop buying new homes. ‘With whole cities shutting down nearly all commerce, no one can say what a fair price is right now, so we’re not making any instant offers,’ said CEO Glen Kelman in a statement.”

The Orange County Register in California. “We’re in uncharted waters and stuck making guesstimates based on ‘BC’ data. That’s stats ‘before coronavirus.’ But I’ll bet that housing markets with high overvaluation are at greater risk of price reversals. ‘The broad spread of coronavirus in the U.S. will slow down home buying activity, leading to a temporary drop in demand and lower home price growth,’ Fitch wrote. ‘A widespread and protracted period of containment could result in larger disruptions to local economies, higher unemployment and home price declines.'”

“On a scale of zero bubbles (no bubble here) to five bubbles (five-alarm warning) … THREE BUBBLES in California and up to FIVE BUBBLES in Nevada and Idaho. Let’s face the harsh reality: Only a handful of industries are immune from coronavirus and its related shutdowns, bans, limitations and shortages. That means lots of job losses. And out-of-work folks don’t buy homes while those who already own have trouble keeping them.”

From Socket Site in California. “The list price for 1160 Florida Street has now been further reduced to $2.95 million, down a million (26 percent) since the home was priced last year but a sale at which would be considered to be ‘at asking’ according to all industry stats and aggregate reports. The sale of 1160 Florida Street has now closed escrow with a contract price of $2,837,650 or roughly $1,030 per square foot. And while that’s officially ‘within 4 percent of asking’ according to industry stats, and with only ’40 days on the market’ as well, it’s roughly 29 percent ($1.16 million) below its original price when listed five months ago.”

“Keep in mind that the number of homes on the market in San Francisco hit a 9-year high earlier this week and the percentage of listings with at least one official price reduction had ticked up to 17 percent, all prior to the COVID-19 lock-down.”

From South Coast Today in Massachusetts. “‘It’s a challenging time right now,’ said Paul Chasse, chief executive officer of the Realtor Association of Southeastern Massachusetts. ‘We’re in uncharted territory right now to some extent.’ Buyers are worried about job security and the long-term economic impact of the outbreak. ‘We have seen a few people who have decided to hold off listing their homes as this happens,’ Chasse said. ‘A few people have decided to pull their homes off the market. We’ve also had a couple buyers walk away due to concerns about being laid off.'”

“‘With almost no winter this year, the market’s been pretty steady through December, January and February,’ Chasse said. ‘Inventory is very, very low. Houses were selling for good money. Then it just stopped a couple weeks ago.'”

“‘I definitely think it will slow things down a bit,’ said Darlene Alferes, president/broker of Alferes Realty. ‘But there are still a lot of buyers out there ready to purchase. But there’s also a lot of concern from people about their job security and stuff like that. I have heard of a few people not in my office — from lenders I’ve worked with — saying they’ve had things fall apart because people have been laid off.'”

From Mansion Global on New York. “Manhattan home listings and agreed-to deals were significantly down in the first half of this month compared to their historic average, among the first definitive signs that coronavirus is impacting the borough’s housing market. There are already signs the uncertainty has stymied activity at the highest end. Last week, for example, only one home asking more than $10 million went into contract, according to a report from Olshan Realty.”

The Globe and Mail on Canada. “Real estate activity is humming in Southern Ontario and Montreal but starting to slow in other Canadian cities as major industries shutter and slash jobs due to the novel coronavirus pandemic. In Vancouver and Victoria, realtors say there are still some multiple offers, but calls are drying up. One Vancouver realtor said activity was bumpy, with one property drawing many viewers, while others ‘were like ghost towns.'”

“Mike Stewart of Oakwyn Realty Downtown Ltd. put it this way: ‘We have cancelled all our open houses, and it is dead as a door nail out there.’ In Ottawa, another city that has seen a jump in sales and double-digit price increases, some realtors said no one is calling. ‘Everyone is in panic mode. We get a lot of calls, and it just stopped completely,’ said David Haynes, a realtor with Royal LePage Team Realty in Ottawa.”

From Bloomberg. “A freeze is settling on commercial property markets. And the tendrils of frost are spreading to industrial properties, apartments, and even student housing — usually stable in hard times. As the coronavirus spreads, all the once-reliable havens are mired in uncertainty. ‘On the investor side, there’s widespread panic,’ said Alexi Panagiotakopoulos, partner at Fundamental Income, a real estate strategy firm. ‘There’s downward pressure on every aspect of every asset class.'”

“Lack of consensus about the current or future value of assets is also threatening property sales, closing an exit door for investors and landlords. Without clarity on those big questions, investors will be reluctant to part with their cash. Investment activity could fall by 45% this year in the U.S., which would be more than the decline following the 9/11 terrorist attacks or the 2008 financial crisis, according to Kiran Raichura, senior property economist at Capital Economics.”

“Already, large deals are collapsing or getting postponed. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s planned sale of a 50% stake in the 900 million pound Nova development in London’s Victoria district collapsed on Friday. Singapore-based ARA Asset Management Ltd., which was lined up to purchase the pension fund’s half of Nova, will no longer complete the deal, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the details are private.”

“ViacomCBS Inc. said earlier this week it’s suspending plans to sell Manhattan’s Black Rock building because the outbreak has prevented would-be buyers from visiting the property. It’s also unclear what will happen with mall owner Simon Property Group’s $3.6 billion bid to buy rival Taubman Centers Inc. Both mall operators have closed most of their properties and Taubman’s shares have been trading below the proposed deal price for more than two weeks.”

“In the U.K., more than 11 billion pounds ($13 billion) has been frozen in property funds with appraisers warning that the virus makes it impossible to assess their value. The merger of brokers LSL Property Services Plc and Countryside Plc is already on the scrap heap and other deals in London are being delayed. China’s office market, meanwhile, was being hit by plunging rents and high vacancy rates amid slower economic growth even before the coronavirus. Office vacancies in Shanghai, China’s financial heart, may climb to 28% next year, according to Colliers International Group Inc.”

“Shares of U.S. real estate investment trusts, particularly those that own malls, have been hammered. Brookfield Property Partners LP, which made a big bet on malls with its $15 billion acquisition of GGP Inc. in 2018, expects its tenants to face ‘severe consequences’ in coming weeks with substantial parts of the economy shut down.”

“Companies such as Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. and Caesars Entertainment Corp. have been tapping backup loans to shore up their finances. The sudden threat to tenants that pay rent is an unwelcome shock for office and warehouse landlords. For retail and hospitality property owners, it could be fatal. ‘The implications could be far-reaching, but quantifying these is highly speculative at present,’ said Matthew Saperia, an analyst at Peel Hunt.”

“With so much uncertainty, the availability of credit is shrinking. New financing for hotels, malls and senior living has mostly disappeared. And debt that’s reliant on income from building tenants is suddenly very risky. As much as 15% of loans on commercial property could default over the next couple of years if there’s a recession, according to Mark Fogel, CEO of Acres Capital, a private commercial real estate lender.”

“Large commercial lenders such as Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. and Arbor Realty Trust Inc. have seen their stocks plummet during the virus-fueled market turmoil. ‘Nobody knows where deals will be priced and nobody knows just how long this issue is going to affect the world and how much it’ll affect the underlying collateral,’ Fogel said.”

This Post Has 283 Comments
  1. ‘1160 Florida Street has now closed escrow with a contract price of $2,837,650 or roughly $1,030 per square foot. And while that’s officially ‘within 4 percent of asking’ according to industry stats, and with only ’40 days on the market’ as well, it’s roughly 29 percent ($1.16 million) below its original price when listed five months ago’

    Open market manipulation – check!

    ‘Keep in mind that the number of homes on the market in San Francisco hit a 9-year high earlier this week and the percentage of listings with at least one official price reduction had ticked up to 17 percent, all prior to the COVID-19 lock-down’

    Bay aryan loanowners are fooked.

    1. A coworker of mine just backed out of becoming an 2xFB (would have been his second home loan). Even though he still has his job and makes enough (now) to get the loan and make payments he decided now is not the time to enter land-lording. The sellers agent of course said they had 5 other parties wanting to buy during his initial offer and when he backed out the realtor stalker text him eventually stating they would offer 4 months paid mortgage and a 100k price reduction. My coworkers buyers agent also told him that this is the 3rd deal out of three that fell through for him. Sellers and realtors prepare for some challenging times ahead!

          1. shelter is essential

            Stay in your rental and watch your savings pile up while house prices crater.

          2. “Stay in your rental and watch your savings pile up while house prices crater.”

            It really couldn’t be any simpler.

          1. shelter is essential Realtors can live in the hollowed out cartons of TP, there are probably many available.

      1. One of my Encinitas neighbors is a realtor. Shocker, I know. She said (believe what you will) 836 San Dieguito Dr had multiple offers including a two week cash offer. The accepted offer (not the cash offer) fell threw and it appears to me that those other offers have vanished because it’s still on the market. She also supposedly has 4 clients looking in that neighborhood. I guess the other two properties priced at $2.47M and $2.88M are too steep.

        1. 4 clients looking in that neighborhood

          Rhetorical question: how stupid do you have to be to engage a realtor who has a personal interest in maintaining the value of her own property? She paid $1.175M in July 2015 and has poured more money into it. But hey, she’s got a huge avocado tree smack dab in the middle of it! Can’t remember if it’s producing fruit though.

          1. a place we offered on, ocean view in Oceanside called us back yesterday and asked if we still wanted it! We had a good laugh. We made full price cash offer and there were 4 other offers, I guess the other 3 fell through they came back to us, no thanks. Our offers will be 100k off everything, cash, from here on out or we’ll just wait a year or two to ever consider dipping our toes in.

    2. Just took a walk with my loverly wife in our neighborhood. It’s actually the first such occasion in 2020, helped by the fact that her volunteer services went from a full-time occupation to zero over the past two weeks.

      Anyway, I was surprised to see an Open House sign along the way, and very curious to go check it out. But then I remembered: COVID-19!

  2. ‘announced Wednesday in an SEC filing that its home-flipping division would temporarily stop buying new homes. ‘With whole cities shutting down nearly all commerce, no one can say what a fair price is right now, so we’re not making any instant offers’

    You’re fooked too Glen. Good luck selling the shacks you were losing tens of millions a month on.

    1. “…its home-flipping division…”

      Competition providing consumer’s with the lowest prices?

  3. ‘Last week, for example, only one home asking more than $10 million went into contract’

    A city with $33 billions in shadow inventory. Oh dear…

    1. Just after 9/11, fancy apartments in luxury skyscrapers suddenly lost their appeal, for obvious reasons. I wonder if that will happen again, now that it’s been proven that big cities, where almost everybody goes out shopping for something every single day, are good incubators for viruses.

  4. ‘the tendrils of frost are spreading to industrial properties, apartments, and even student housing — usually stable in hard times. As the coronavirus spreads, all the once-reliable havens are mired in uncertainty. ‘On the investor side, there’s widespread panic…There’s downward pressure on every aspect of every asset class’

    You know Alexi, I’m not feeling the panic. Safe havens my a$$. Recession proof!

  5. How’s the business model of real estate companies buying and HODLing single-family homes from wannabe buyers HODLing up?

      1. Are online real estate sales platforms systematically important enough to qualify as TOO BIG TO FAIL?

        I doubt it…

  6. Credit Markets
    Bond-Market Strains Keep Traders on Edge
    Many believe Fed intervention will help—while expressing surprise at how quickly functioning unraveled in some markets
    The state of Wisconsin has been holding off on a $281 million bond sale that was meant for last week.
    Photo: Lauren Justice for The Wall Street Journal
    By Gregory Zuckerman,
    Heather Gillers and
    Julia-Ambra Verlaine
    Updated March 20, 2020 6:11 pm ET

    The global scramble for cash is putting immense pressure on bond markets, raising concern about whether they are functioning well enough to effectively distribute funds to communities and businesses.

    On Friday, the Dow industrials dropped 913.21 points, or 4.55%, to 19173.98, putting it down 33% for the year. Selling was broad-based, with declines in technology shares, financial issues and health-care firms leading the 30-stock index to its fourth weekly decline out of five. U.S. Treasury prices rose Friday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling to 0.932%. But many traders say trading this month in Treasurys and other debt offers reason for acute concern.

    In recent days, long-term Treasury securities have suffered significant price declines alongside large stock-market retreats, an unusual dual downturn that has raised alarm among traders. A stampede into dollars is pushing up the U.S. currency’s value overseas, adding to repayment woes for companies and governments that borrowed in dollars.

    In the U.S., corporate issuance has been largely off limits to all but the bluest chips. State and local governments are facing sticker shock as steep declines in demand for their securities force rates much higher in some instances, while the market for short-term corporate loans has become surprisingly fragile, some market participants said.

    The disruptions have prompted a series of extraordinary Federal Reserve interventions. Many traders express optimism that those fixes will help return markets to normal.

    Even so, the events are adding to uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and the price that some borrowers will pay simply to stay afloat at a time when many Wall Street banks are forecasting a sharp decline in U.S. economic output for the second quarter at least.

    1. I saw that article this morning. Did the high tide cause investors to swim naked? I’m always interested in the chicken/egg thing.

      1. No.

        The outflowing tsunami tide of Yellen bux washed all the naked swimmers out to sea.

        1. The Financial Times
          Inside Business
          Airlines
          US airlines show it is time to switch off buyback machine
          Industry has lavished 115% of free cash flow on repurchasing shares since 2014
          Jonathan Ford 52 minutes ago

          As the tide recedes on stock markets with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, it has not taken long to reach the “Warren Buffett moment”. That is when we discover who in the ebbing market “is wearing shorts and who was swimming naked”, as the billionaire investor once said.

          Conspicuous among those lacking apparel in the present turmoil is the US airline industry. Having lavished a thumping 115 per cent of their free cash flow on share buybacks since 2014 (and that is aside from their regular dividends) America’s four biggest airlines have precious little to cover their pecuniary embarrassment. They lack the financial flexibility even to contribute materially towards the costly business interruptions that loom.

          Not being some optional extra but a crucial part of the US economy, that fragility has been dumped wholesale in the laps of the hard-pressed American public. Taxpayers are being asked for a $50bn bailout just to keep the airlines in the skies.

          Of course, airlines are not the only industry to have hollowed out their balance sheets with share buybacks, making themselves less resilient to downturns. In 2018, impelled by the boost to corporate profits delivered by President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, companies in the S&P 500 index repurchased $806bn worth of their own shares, beating the previous 2007 record by $200bn. Last year, they gobbled up $730bn.

          Nor have they confined themselves to surplus cash flow to do it. The proportion of buybacks funded by corporate bonds was as much as a third in 2016 and 2017, according to research by JPMorgan Chase.

          Now there is nothing wrong in principle with returning capital to investors. Companies in mature industries might lack sufficient appealing investment opportunities to absorb their surplus cash. But the buyback movement has been driven by less innocent motives. Leveraging simply to buy back shares is, as a recent article by three academics observed, “bad management, given that no revenue-generating investments are made that can allow the company to pay off the debt”.

          Its real appeal to bosses lies in the scope for financial engineering. After all, buybacks do not simply gear a company’s balance sheet; they also supply a further twist by reducing the number of shares in issue. The result is to manipulate upwards the earnings per share number — sometimes dramatically.

          The main beneficiaries are not shareholders; buybacks tend to happen when share prices are rising anyway, and they run the risk of companies destroying value by purchasing overvalued equity. The biggest winners are managers whose pay is tied to stock market measures such as EPS growth.

          In many sectors, this has been all but formalised into a mechanism for self-enrichment, according to the investor Ben Hunt. Take Microsoft for instance, whose managers have perfected the art of plucking the shareholder goose without much hissing.

          In 2018, the tech company bought back 150m shares, “returning” $16.8bn to investors. Yet in the same year, Microsoft issued 116m new shares to employees as they exercised options or vested previously restricted stock units, in return for which it received a paltry $1.1bn in subscription cash. The net effect of this buying-high-and-selling-low strategy was to transfer 70 per cent of the value of the buyback into managers’ pockets.

          That is not the only way that buybacks can hurt investors. There is also the problem that managers become focused mainly on running a sort of hedge fund with a commercial business attached.

          Just look at Boeing under its buyback-loving former boss Dennis Muilenburg. The aircraft maker’s repurchase of $43bn of its shares between 2013 and 2019 made Mr Muilenburg extremely wealthy, helping him in 2018 to pocket $30m in compensation and gains from exercising options. But it was financed by squeezing the development cost and cutting corners on the 737 Max, whose fatal flaws and subsequent grounding have thrown the company’s future into doubt.

          1. From the article On Saturday, the CEOs of 10 US airlines and the head of Airlines for America, the industry’s trade group, signed a letter to congressional leaders. In it, they agreed to “eliminating stock buy backs over the life of the loans” and “eliminating stock dividends for the life of the loans” if the industry receives at least $29 billion in loans or loan guarantees. The industry leaders also agreed to “limits on executive compensation.”

            The restriction should be: No stock buy backs ever”. If the CEO’s can’t stomach that – let the companies go bankrupt. Let some enterprising group take over by paying pennies on the dollar and keep the required personnel. If the man power was bloated to being with, then that should be corrected as good business practice.

          2. But it was financed by squeezing the development cost and cutting corners on the 737 Max

            They should have used that money to design an all new replacement for the 737.

  7. ”THREE BUBBLES in California and up to FIVE BUBBLES in Nevada and Idaho.“

    I sure hope nobody overpaid for houses in Nevada and Idaho.

    1. It’s rich that an Orange County writer says Las Vegas and Boise are overvalued.

      And note above that Moody’s and Fitch both called a blowout – after it happened! Where’s S&P?

    2. “THREE BUBBLES in California”

      The new realtor math. Guessing they consider 1-3 bubbles a hot market, 4 balanced and 5 moderate.

      1. Isn’t that everything was overvalued the main problem? I’ve posted Jesse Colombo’s writing before:

        ‘Jesse Colombo, an economic analyst who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, says the U.S. economy is in worse shape than many people realize, but he doesn’t blame the coronavirus pandemic that seemed to cause the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plunge in March. “Coronavirus is acting as a red herring,” Colombo told FOX Business. “People are thinking things are falling apart because of the coronavirus. It’s just the pin that burst that bubble.”

        ‘Colombo coined the term “bubblecovery” to describe the U.S. economy’s post-2008 recovery and skyrocketing debt. He has warned about the impending burst of bubbles found worldwide, from tech startups to U.S. shale energy companies, since 2019 and earlier. “This false recovery … it’s built on the backs of bubbles acting as growth engines. It’s not legitimate,” Colombo said.’

        ‘Colombo predicts that hard times for American businesses and layoffs for American workers because of bubbles bursting. “Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the world has taken on almost 100 trillion dollars of new debt. We threw another debt party and made all the same mistakes,” Colombo said. “We kicked the can down the road, and now we can’t kick it any longer.”

        https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/coronavirus-us-economy-collapse-recession

        1. What Colombo says is NOT a news to the readers of this blog. The most important question now is will the 500 Trillions of new debt we are going to add due to “Corona” will buy us a decade or not?

          1. Another decade of steeply rising living costs and increased homelessness in order to keep the people who matter’s life rafts afloat during the coronacrisis?

        2. We threw another debt party and made all the same mistakes,” Colombo said. “We kicked the can down the road, and now we can’t kick it any longer.”

          And all of us here were pointing that out the whole time, yet the ivory tower hacks at the FED had their grand plan. How’d that turn out?

          The FED was kicking a can that turned into an unkickable anvil.

  8. ‘Since mortgage agreements effectively constrain many homeowners from selling properties at a loss, sellers must delay any planned sale until the economy recovers’

    I beg to differ Kwame. I’m not aware of any mortgage restriction on selling at a loss. Now if you mean they gotta bring money to the table, yeah that’s there. It’s not a problem unless you got broke a$$ borrowers who just want out.

    https://patch.com/california/shermanoaks/classifieds/housing/128354/studio-city-reo-bank-owned-short-sale-homes-for-sale

    Now why would there be any foreclosures/short sales in California? Don’t these FBs know there’s gold nuggets just under the surface of those dirt driveways and cars parked in the yard?

    1. Darn it, I was hoping that the higher employment numbers lately could create a softer landing for the fake markets.

      Now it’s just mind blowing on what extremes are going to happen.

      1. It’s basically a (hopefully short-term) employment and production depression by fiat, on an international scale.

        I don’t believe this has ever previously occurred in the history of the modern world.

    2. The weasel word is “effectively”. I would imagine that in situations where selling is optional and could be put off, e.g. an owner or family wanting to move, but still able to make the note and are not necessarily needing to right this minute — those listings can be taken off of the market until conditions improve.

      But for the others who did not plan as well, and overstretched, or folks who have or will be losing their jobs…

      This is going to hurt renters just as much as owners, you know. At the end of the day it’s a monthly payment, either way.

      1. Apartments will be going under left and right. We have never paid as much $s for rent and it’s never been a higher percentage of income for rent. Now these stupid bets on the greater fool apartment biz are going to hammer these guys. It’s already a 2 months-free! situation and this thing has just started.

        1. We need to see these foreclosures and bankruptcies to extinguish all these gimmicks. Instead of offering incentives, just lower the fawking price.

        2. The question is, if people want to add an apartment to their one-family home, for a parent, child, or just income to share the cost, will local governments have the political will to stop them when this is over? This is a country with 75 million empty bedrooms!

  9. I predict that Orange County is already off 20% from house-peak highs. Since housing moves slowly, plus there’s a built-in lag in the data, people around here may not know it yet. I’ve twice experienced O.C. dropping by 30%, and as far as I can tell, the market has all be ceased up around here.

    I also predict that sales / transactions have fallen off a cliff – let’s say 90% less volume (not saying I’m right; let’s just use a big number for my example). Well, lucky for people on the sidelines is, the 10% of remaining activity…..can still set the median home price significantly lower.

    1) Sales / transactions will (have) dry (dried) up first.
    2) Then home prices will follow.

    This is all already happening.

    Another thing to remember: firms like Zillow have a HUGE horse in the race (read: they are not unbiased) and have all sorts of $$$ incentives to keep their home value estimates unrealistically inflated….for as long as possible.

    For those of you who could buy – but have not due to crazy / insane home prices – I’ve got a thought experiment for you. Although your 401ks and stock portfolios may be down sizably since the peak of the stock market, you may actually be *making* money (via purchasing power) on your dollars in savings….i.e. a quick example is, imagine you had your eyes on a $1.5 million house…that is now (in theory; let it play out) 30% cheaper…that’s a reduction of $300k. You may be down $150k in your 401k, but the $150k is less than the $300k.

    Anyway, I am cheering on the melee from Laguna in O.C.

    1. That’s a realtor math.

      OC houses will drop another 40%. I will wait. Thank you very much!

    2. “imagine you had your eyes on a $1.5 million house…that is now (in theory; let it play out) 30% cheaper…that’s a reduction of $300k. You may be down $150k in your 401k, but the $150k is less than the $300k.”

      That sounds like the kind of logic a woman would use to justify buying designer shoes she doesn’t need, just because they were on sale.

      1. designer shoes

        Aren’t all shoes “designer shoes”, meaning that someone made some sort of drawing of them?

    1. Many prices including real estate needed to come down. Many prices were a joke in terms of tracking with wages. The various ways the Gov was propping up the debt ridden economy was nuts. The ax was ready to fall at anytime.

      Now all the bailouts that are being proposed kinda reminds me of 2008 again.

      1. Yup. Debt allowed higher sales, of stuff and assets, at higher wages. That’s what allowed 40 years of current account deficits and rising inequality.

      2. Yes, except that we are much lower on monetary and fiscal ammunition at this point, thanks to the 2008 bailouts never getting unwound before the coronacrisis.

    2. typo…s/b: “the market has all BUT ceased up around here.”

      OK good, I thought you were trying to say “seized up” :-).

  10. The San Francisco-based startup, which allows property speculators to flout zoning laws and recklessly disrupt residential neighborhoods with illegal hotels

    FTFY

    1. ‘debt that’s reliant on income from building tenants is suddenly very risky’

      Income? What’s that? I wonder how those loopy student/lux apt/hotel cap rates are looking now?

      Easy situation to blindly walk into, not so easy to get out of. The short term rental thing alone is going to be a body blow.

      ‘That’s nice that you’re asking the government to bail us out with loans since @Airbnb has bankrupted us. I literally have $23 in my bank account right now’

      1. “I literally have $23 in my bank account right now”

        Oh the horror!!! Listen, sit back grab a beer and watch the youtubes for a couple weeks while the FREE monies check arrives at your door (covered in beer flu). – youth of America

      2. I am really trying to remain aware of karma and hang on to empathy through all of this, but having said that — the sympathy meter does not budge a whole lot for anyone who put all of their eggs into into the Uber/Lyft or Airbnb basket without considering the longer term risks. I don’t think the model was ever intended to be anything more than an easy come, easy go side hustle.

  11. I am not as concerned about the virus as I am about what the government’s up to right now. They ALWAYS find a way to make a bad situation even worse. We have bankruptcy laws on the books right now which are for use in situations like this where businesses and households go broke. An act of God has bankrupted many people in the past. They didn’t get a bailout. It’s time to just let things happen as they happen, then pick up the pieces after it’s over. The ONLY thing the government should be working on is boosting manufacturing for medical supplies, increasing the availability of care facilities for the sick, and working diligently on both a vaccination as well as a cure.

  12. ‘The federal government is preparing a multibillion-dollar bailout package for Canada’s oil and gas sector that is expected to be unveiled early next week, sources say. Federal and Alberta government insiders are saying little about the details – citing the sensitivity of the options under discussion – but the oil and gas sector can expect to get more access to credit, especially for struggling small and medium-sized operations, and significant funding to create jobs for laid-off workers to clean up abandoned oil and gas wells.’

    ‘Alex Lindsay, a civil engineer who has worked in the oil patch for six years, told The Globe that he would like to see governments backstopping debt to prevent a slew of bankruptcies in the patch. “But as long as oil costs less than a bucket of chicken, we’re in trouble,” he said.’

    ‘While it’s quite usual for sector activity to ramp down around this time of year for spring breakup, Mr. Lindsay said he is seeing an unusually widespread shutdown across the sector. “I don’t think I could even get a job on a service rig right now, and you could always get a job on a service rig. I’m not even seeing the ads for those any more, which is crazy. I mean, I got a job on a service rig in 2015 when everyone thought the world was coming to an end,” he said, referring to the oil-price dive that kicked off Alberta’s recession.’

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-ottawa-prepares-multibillion-dollar-bailout-of-oil-and-gas-sector/

  13. In mid-February I wrote that the future of commercial real estate was bankruptcy, foreclosure, workout, and value added reinvention.

    https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2020/02/14/the-commercial-real-estate-future-bankruptcy-foreclosure-workout-value-added-reinvention-and-redevelopment/

    At the time, I didn’t expect the future to arrive in one month!

    Are we really going to tax an extra 10 percent of later-born Americans’ income, or eliminate their old age benefits, to maintain asset values at unsustainable levels to benefit older generations and the rich? Chapter 11!

    1. amen. I’ve started to feel increasingly like the older generations have siphoned off all of the good and social benefits in society over many decades while now condemning the younger generations for not being as lucky as they were and literally condemning them to a future of debt And national decline. All rides have to come to an end. Why coddle Generations who’ve already experienced low and free cost College, housing prices, and some thing our children Will only learn about history books… Pensions.

      Why does it seem like all the economic risk is being transferred to those under 50 to prop up people who’ve already bought houses and “succeeded” in life?

      1. to those under 50 to prop up people

        Cheer up. Those “over 50” you’re so jealous of are screwed. Their debts are unrepayable. Their speculative gains are vaporizing. Their houses are crushing them. You younger people can have a fresh start. Be smart and stay out of debt.

  14. The stock market and eCONomy melted down so fast that too many people are underestimating what’s happening. All over the place, even here on the blog, people are chomping at the bit to buy stocks, etc. That’s not how a bottom looks. A bottom is when nobody wants to buy anything, and few have any dry powder left. We are in the infancy of this thing.

    1. “chomping at the bit to buy stocks”

      If Goldman Sachs is predicting as much as a 24% drop in U.S. GDP in Q2 2020, I won’t be chomping anything besides the freezer full of steaks I bought two weeks ago.

      1. I have over a month’s worth of food right now. But I’m now regretting now getting more when I was preparing over a month ago, because now the stores are jam packed and supplies are low. Going grocery shopping shoulder to shoulder with people sounds like a good way for the virus to spread, and to get infected. I go at night, but I am not confident that it’s going to be the slow time anymore because all the stores started closing early to restock. That has made them even more busy.

        1. Just returned from grocery shopping. I didn’t go into Trader Joe’s, due to the long line out the door to facilitate social distancing over a small floor space.

          Nearby Sprouts, which has way more floor space, had no line and a healthy supply of fresh vegetables. There were maybe 30 customers in the store, with about 10 percent of them wearing masks.

          1. I just bought food at a Salt Lake Valley Sprouts. The crowds were normal for a Saturday afternoon. There were eggs, but the supply was less than normal.

            Lots of onions, but sadly no garlic! Garlic paste was available though in a pinch.

            Tonnes of meat.

            The only oddity was employees were wearing nitrile gloves. We were too xD.

          2. On that note, I’m buying carrots and garlic (assuming availability) on my second trip to Sprouts today, later this evening.

      2. exactly my mom was the same way you can live without cash for a while, but you cant live without food, so our freezer was always full and so was our pantry. and that rubbed off on me till this day. a 3 day special at stop and shop of $1.99 lb for chicken tenders so i bought 6 packs almost 20 lbs worth. froze 5 will have one tonight with veggies in the crock pot. Hopefully steaks will be on sale next week

    2. A bottom is when nobody wants to buy anything, and few have any dry powder left.

      And we never even got there in 2008/2009. We’ve got a long way to go.

  15. So how’s that martial law working out for ya?

    Coronavirus response | Local officials: ‘This isn’t martial law’

    Debra Pressey 3 hrs ago

    URBANA — Don’t think of sheltering in place as a quarantine, local officials advise. Think of it as a two-week vacation and Illinois’ one chance to flatten the coronavirus curve.

    “Much of life will continue,” she said. “It’s just that the places that we gather with groups of people will not. That means even families, if you’re not living with each other, then you should not gather with each other.”

    Police will be out reminding people they see congregating in groups in public places, but they’re not going to be arresting people for not staying home, Marlin said.

    “This isn’t martial law,” she said.

    It’s important that everyone cooperate, Marlin urged.

    https://www.news-gazette.com/coronavirus/coronavirus-response-local-officials-this-isn-t-martial-law/article_e663332b-f23b-50d7-bb68-15ab41c939b5.html

    1. Yesterday I went to take a long walk at my favorite high school track. For the first time in 40 years I saw about 40 runners and walkers on the track, otherwise only seen for school events & team practices – neither of which was the occasion. There was a group of about 8 young men who decided to run against the usual counterclockwise pattern, meaning they passed everyone else very closely, twice for every lap they ran. There was little concern about a 6 food distance from others, which was hardly possible anyway. I stayed in my car, drove home and from there walked 6 miles through my neighborhood. Passed about 6 people, none closer than 6 feet.

      1. I found that suburban hiking is much more fun than a track, or even hiking in the woods. I’ve always been interested in houses — hello I ‘m on a housing blog — so I like checking out the landscaping and the architecture and getting the flavor of different neighborhoods. In the woods the trees all look the same, and there’s ticks.

        1. In the woods

          The first flowers are popping and green things are starting to grow. For me the trees are all different and I know most of their names. The migratory birds are back and singing. Robins are mating. It is full of life. I find most houses rather sterile and repetitive.

          If you are familiar with the woods, ticks are easy to deal with. Houses have mortgages, which if one gets its teeth into you, it will suck the life out of you and is very difficult to eradicate.

          1. “Houses have mortgages, which if one gets its teeth into you, it will suck the life out of you and is very difficult to eradicate.”

            Ticks can be eradicated within a day or two. A mortgage can take decades!

      1. Anyone showing symptoms of coronavirus in Italy who refuses to self-isolate could face murder charges and 21 years in prison.
        This isn’t martial law, just law.

    2. To me, it’s not about congregating and going out to eat or to the movies. To me it’s just about going to a store for groceries or spring pansies without fear.

      After thinking about yesterday’s barrage of bad news or lockdowns and 18-months of social distancing, I decided that my food supply was about a month too short. I figured it’s better to take the chance now rather than wait for the virus to spread even wider. So, very early this morning I drove over an hour to the SuperWalMart in Charlestown, West Virginia, for some canned goods.

      WV is about two weeks behind the boom. They have less than 10 cases — all travel-related, isolated, and contact-tracked. I.E. no confirmed community transmission yet. So I felt pretty safe in shopping there. Even then, in the store I wore an N-95 mask taped to my face, with safety goggles over the top. I’m sure I was a sight to behold. I got some looks from the locals, but none of the looks were long enough to be stares, if that makes any sense. The store, of course, was out of toilet paper and paper towels, but the meat department had been stocked, bakery was full, and there were gallons of water. I snagged some canned veggies, some canned meat, two bottles of olive oil, a sprayer of mace, and some other treats. I guess I’m pretty much in for the duration now.

      1. Even then, in the store I wore an N-95 mask taped to my face, with safety goggles over the top. I’m sure I was a sight to behold. I got some looks from the locals, but none of the looks were long enough to be stares, if that makes any sense.

        Hahaha. I am going to wear a respirator for the first time when I go to the store on Sunday evening, late.

      2. “…in the store I wore an N-95 mask…”

        I did too during my last 0700 Walmart visit. Glad I did too as many people were coughing, both customers and employees. Fortunately they were not crowded at that time.

    1. “We now sit at 22,177 confirmed cases and 278 deaths in the United States”

      US Flu Cases Reach 32 Million, Pediatric Hospitalization Rates Hit Record High

      MAR 05, 2020 | MICHAELA FLEMING

      The latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate that there have been at least 32 million cases of influenza in the 2019-20 US flu season.

      So far, there have been 310,000 flu-related hospitalizations and 18,000 associated deaths this season.

      https://www.contagionlive.com/news/us-flu-cases-reach-32-million-pediatric-hospitalization-rates-hit-record-high

      1. 18,000 / 32,000,000 =
        0.0005625 =
        0.05625/100 =
        0.05625% death rate =
        1 out of 1,778 case fatalities.

        Don’t know about you, but I would rather take my chances with seasonal flu than COVID-19. (Actually I already have, and lived to tell about it.)

        1. “Is it August already? Man, that was quick, Jeff!”

          So you are saying 9000 U.S citizens have died from coronavirus?

          It was halfway to the H1N1 18,000 CDC revised deaths in the United States not the seasonal flu. Nice try though.

          1. Not sure what you’re talking about here. I was referring to your post several days ago where you said you were done and would revisit things in August.

        2. “you said you were done and would revisit things in August.”

          You are correct, but I posted what I thought would be one final post on the subject the following day (I know, I said I wouldn’t until August) and like stepping in quicksand I got sucked back in by all the, well you know.

          1. That’s fine. I’m just trying to figure out your angle on this thing. Do you believe it’s fake news or something? Care to share your thoughts?

      2. These aren’t the same illnesses.

        The flu is less contagious, tends not to overwhelm IC units, is easier to spot and recover from – and from what I’ve read the flu is more pleasant and less deadly for those with preexisting conditions.

        We don’t know much about this new virus and statisticians and researchers can only Make educated guesses and run experiments and models. A lot of information is incomplete and will continue to be since the federal government refuses to assist effectively with testing and states only have so much authority in this area.

        If we had appropriate pandemic preparedness in place, we might not have had to stop our economy cold to prevent millions from getting deathly ill and requiring hospitalization at once.

        Another clue that these are different viruses is that we don’t stop the economy every flu season and scare healthcare workers out of their minds with safety gear and hospital bed shortages.

    2. I am not following these statistics closely any more. I am scanning the news for robberies, truck hijackings, break-ins at grocery stores, power outages and riots.

      1. “power outages”

        The state of Illinois has deemed sparkies as “essential” workers under its shutdown order announced yesterday.

      2. I am scanning the news for robberies

        We did have a couple of bank robberies last week here in the Folsom/El Dorado Hills area. Stressed out my wife. Chinese communities all over California are creating SOS groups in WeChat where they won’t post any messages except emergency calls for help. They’re all scaring the crap out of each other at this point. It doesn’t help that when they go out in public dumbasses catcall them with “Coronavirus!”.

        1. “r/PublicFreakout” on reddit has many video clips from Philly and NY showing Black people attacking anyone on the street who is alone or vulnerable, or ignoring “one-per-customer” rules in stores and fighting with store employees.

        2. It’s sad that an official in the United States is encouraging divisive language like you heard by using it himself.

          No need to encourage fear at a time like this. China at least pulled out all the stops to control it once they saw the problem. More than I can say for the US response several months in.

          1. “More than I can say for the US response several months in.”

            The U.S. fed is bailing-out central banks around the planet.

          2. China at least pulled out all the stops

            Look into that a little further. They suppressed the facts from getting out for months, let infected people travel all around the world and jailed truth tellers. Then they asked the world to thank them. Now they blame the outbreak on America. Inside China they are encouraging hatred and misuse of foreigners. The CCP doesn’t deserve praise despite what our MSM tells you.

    3. That’s an over 10 percent increase in cases overnight, or roughly a one week case count doubling time. (I’ll spare you the confusing arithmetic. 🙂 )

      1. ” (I’ll spare you the confusing arithmetic. 🙂 )”

        While you’re at it, hold on to your “known unknowns” too.

        1 in 5 Americans Had H1N1 Swine Flu

        CDC Estimates 11,690 H1N1 Swine Flu Deaths, 257,000 Hospitalizations in U.S.

        By Daniel J. DeNoon

        Feb. 12, 2010 – About one in five U.S. residents — 57 million Americans — have had H1N1 swine flu since the pandemic began in April 2009, the CDC estimates.

        Some 11,690 Americans have died of H1N1 swine flu. That’s the midpoint of the CDC’s estimate, which ranges from as few as 8,330 deaths to as many as 17,160.

        The new estimates cover the period from April 2009 through Jan. 16, 2010; they suggest that 2 million Americans caught swine flu since Dec. 12, 2009 — and that 530 died in that five-week period.

        https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20100212/1-in-5-americans-had-h1n1-swine-flu

        PS

        These numbers were later revised up.

        1. I’m still trying to understand what the Swine Flu has to do with this. Help a guy out here.

          1. “Help a guy out here.”

            Go back and read the blog from and through last weekend.

            Consider yourself helped.

          2. Can you answer my question, Jeff? I’ve seen you copying and pasting all sorts of Swine Flu info for weeks, but I do not see any correlation with COVID-19.

          3. “That being said, I don’t see how destroying an entire economy helps anybody in the long run.”

            It seems like social distancing coupled with a degree of individual flexibility was a promising approach, but it had been tested for less than a week in California before California, New York, Illinois and Connecticut went all-in on full quarantine.

          4. California, New York, Illinois and Connecticut went all-in on full quarantine

            We are not in anything resembling a “full quarantine”. The majority of things is still open and functioning. We’re trying to do things on the internet and space ourselves out in public.

            Are you afraid, or is there some other reason you are overplaying this situation to the extreme?

          5. I don’t think any of you appreciate what Blue Skye did. I worked for a company that worked with H2S (I never had to handle it). They were able to charge very high prices for those experiments because so few labs would undertake the risk. I remember watching technicians reciting the Rainbow Passage while getting fitted for their respirators.

            Btw, pure H2S does not have an odor because it overwhelms the smell sensors before you can detect it. Stinky jokes don’t apply.

          6. “I don’t think any of you appreciate what Blue Skye did.”

            Oh, I get it alright. My son’s girlfriend lost her father, who was a fireman, when he entered a chemical facility making (ammonium…something) and he died an agonizing death. It was no place for heroics. I was also impressed with the divers who rescued those kids from the cave that filled with water.

        2. Swine Flu Deaths 257,000
          Swine Flu Cases 57,000,000
          Swine Flu Death Rate was
          257,000 / 57,000,000 = 0.45%, or 1 out of every 222.

          That compares to the 2% (1 in 50) number that has been frequently thrown out in the MSM as a COVID-19 case fatality rate, which appears increasingly optimistic in light of emerging data.

          1. “That compares to the 2% (1 in 50) number that has been frequently thrown out in the MSM as a COVID-19 case fatality rate”

            Those numbers are estimates and as you say known unknowns.

            Professor, I was trying to be nice when I posted about your math skills being intimidating but since you stayed up on your high horse with (I’ll spare you the confusing arithmetic. 🙂 ) I think you should know I’m really not impressed.

            I have been the estimator for my company since 1991 and we have been able to employ many people, turn profits most years, purchase vehicles, pay bonuses, workers comp, liability, licence fees, bills tax deposits, taxes etc. My math skills although nothing to brag about have served us nicely. Just wrote a check for a 2020 Chevy Silverado RST with profits earned from estimates done with my mediocre math skills.

            If I were to need someone with extraordinary math skills I would ask my partner of the last 29 years, a Law School graduate from Cornell who had a perfect score on the math SATs.

            Now for you Headless, I have been posting numbers about the H1N1 Swine flu because I, like most here lived through it.
            It killed as many as 575,000 worldwide, infected 50 million in the U.S. of which 255,000 were hospitalized and up to 18,000 dead without 1 business or school being closed for one day and not one extra roll of toilet paper purchased.

            I am merely pointing out that it happened, lots of people here got sick, hospitalized and died and nothing in our country was effected anything like this.

            So when COVID-19 with it’s 2% case fatality rate according to PB, gets halfway to 18,000 actual deaths (which according to one 2 million will die in U.S. prediction posted here) should be Monday, let me know and I will reconsider my position.

            What has been done to contain this has caused a huge amount of damage and is well in it;s way to ruining millions of hard working very healthy American citizens’s lives.

          2. “So when COVID-19 with it’s 2% case fatality rate according to PB,…”

            That’s actually according to AlbuquerqueDan. It seems like a very optimistically low estimate, given the numbers I keep seeing and the percentage calculations I keep posting.

          3. 255,000 were hospitalized and up to 18,000 dead

            7%. Same ballpark as what we’re dealing with now.

          4. “I have been the estimator for my company since 1991 and we have been able to employ many people, turn profits most years, purchase vehicles, pay bonuses, workers comp, liability, licence fees, bills tax deposits, taxes etc. My math skills although nothing to brag about have served us nicely. Just wrote a check for a 2020 Chevy Silverado RST with profits earned from estimates done with my mediocre math skills.”

            That’s awesome.

            And you bring to mind a funny story:

            Many decades ago, I took a mathematics course with the president of my university, who was a PhD mathematician. There were only 20 of us at the beginning of the course, and only 3 of us survived to the end; being among the survivors, I made an impression on him.

            A few months later I crossed paths with him walking around campus with a guest he was hosting. He introduced me: “This is one of our mathematics students, who is also a musician. And it’s a good thing he is starting out skinny, because he isn’t going to get fat off either of those occupations.”

          5. When you talk about your “position,” are you saying that you do not feel that COVID-19 is any more serious than the Swine Flu? Am I understanding you correctly?

            If I am, can you tell me what data you are seeing or what it is that leads you to believe that it won’t be as serious? Because at the current infection and fatality rate as of today, as far as I can tell, we are already on pace to far exceed the death rate of the Swine Flu.

            Speaking for myself, what first caught my attention about this virus was the news coming out of China. Not the official news, mind you, the cell phone videos of regular citizens who were posting scenes of entire families dead, scenes of regular people dropping dead in the streets. Hospitals crowded with dead bodies laying all over the place. News of crematoriums in Wuhan burning 1,250 bodies per day, with heat maps showing the sulfur dioxide. This is all well before there were even any (official) cases here in the US. I never saw anything like that with any flu before. All of that stuff led me to believe that this wasn’t your garden variety flu bug or even a particularly nasty one, that it was possibly something on a whole different level. I seriously hope that treatments and a vaccine are forthcoming at the earliest juncture.

          6. All of that stuff led me to believe that this wasn’t your garden variety flu

            I think it’s the same for the rest of us. The statistics aren’t frightening enough to warrant what we’re doing.

          7. “Speaking for myself, what first caught my attention about this virus was the news coming out of China.”

            Same here.

            Followed by news out of Iran.

            Then Italy.

            Then New York.

            Then Fox News.

            This all suggests that COVID-19 is more severe than seasonal flu, and that the case load it generates has the potential to overwhelm available medical resources.

          8. I think it’s the same for the rest of us. The statistics aren’t frightening enough to warrant what we’re doing.

            I agree with you on this. In fact, the other day when I said as much I was told by oxy and others that I should visit Wuhan or Lombardy or some such. Tough place around here.

            That being said, I don’t see how destroying an entire economy helps anybody in the long run. I think there are safeguards which could be instituted where businesses could all remain open. Just shutting everything down is dumb.

          9. only 3 of us survived to the end; being among the survivors, I made an impression on him.

            A very funny story indeed. The academic life can apparently get pretty exciting!

            I’ll tell you a funny story. I was plant engineer at a place making…well I probably shouldn’t tell you what we were making or for whom. We got a 30,000 lb tanker of H2S and upon trying to connect it to the grid found that the primary valve had a severe leak, and the secondary (safety) shutoff was frozen. Then arose a cloud of H2S gas and the technicians fled upwind without injury. Downwind were 5,000 people.

            I was the only person onsite with SCBA experience. I put it on and got the copper (no spark) wrenches, recovered the blind flange and bolts. 20 minutes of air. 19, 18, 17…. I had a road flare as a last resort.

            A month later one of the technicians introduced me to his family as the Yankee that saved 5,000 Cajuns. I think I had made an impression on him.

            That word “survival” means different things to different people.

          10. That word “survival” means different things to different people.

            Chambers Street subway station on 9/11 between planes.

          11. I’ve met a couple of feedlot livestock cow punchers in our area who have been exposed to steaming H2S dung for years. They’re just a few steps away from retardation.

          12. They’re just a few steps away from retardation.

            You don’t think they started out that way?

          13. steaming H2S dung

            Well that odor’s not the same thing as pure H2S from a chemical plant. Lethal. Look it up.

          14. “A month later one of the technicians introduced me to his family as the Yankee that saved 5,000 Cajuns. I think I had made an impression on him.”

            That’s a fantastic story, and one that you should make you proud of yourself. It’s hard to predict how one will act in a life-and-death situation, and what you did was the right thing and heroic.

          15. “Well that odor’s not the same thing as pure H2S from a chemical plant. Lethal. Look it up.”

            I understand, Lethal. Based on your many comments here on the blog I’d venture a guess that you are pragmatic and stoic like those pilots who report pertinent details while in a fatal dive.

          16. It was probably an inappropriate thing to post here, but it was getting late and I was sampling some of my quarantine supplies. Ahead of the curve as Red said.

            Like a car accident where you keep processing information and only later say WTF was I thinking.

          17. “…it was getting late and I was sampling some of my quarantine supplies.”

            LOL! Every crisis has a potential upside.

    4. Since the Globalist want to leave USA Citizens short on supplies in emergency because of outsourcing jobs and manufacturing, it’s the time to boycott China goods.

      Since the Politicans won’t do the right thing, maybe it needs to be forced by the betrayed USA Citizens.

      Look, I said 15 years ago on this blog that this outsourcing of manufacturing to Red China was a mistake and it will create a Breach of National Security interest as well.

      China has a big population of their own Citizens to produce for, so they didn’t need to take our jobs and manufacturing.

      Let’s face it, made in China stuff is cheap, toxic and ends up in the landfills sooner. We can’t get them to stop
      their pollution anyway because they do what they want.

      This outsourcing just made the Globalist and middle men richer, while it gutted the wealth and pay scale of the average USA worker.

      You combine this Globalism with the Commie forces at work for take over it’s not going to be what you really want.

      This One Word order idea was just a con job from the Globalist greedheads that wanted to take advantage of slave labor world wide.

      It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have trade between Countries, George Washington never liked foreign entanglements for good reason.

      I don’t know how C-19 is going to reset things, but it might be positive as a wake up call. I’m thinking that the people have to demand and make the changes because powerful forces don’t want that to happen.

      Oh, and forget the Bernie Sanders type grass roots movements because it’s just Communist takeover that would be bad.

      1. We’ve reached a point where it’s impossible to boycott Chinese goods. You’d end up with a car that does not run anymore and other nasty side effects which would make life almost impossible. All by design.

        1. Prepare to pay more for things and do with less stuff. You will be fine and your community will be more sustainable.

          1. I have always been fine with that never ever had too much stuff i needed to rent a storage locker, even with my former huggggee record and cd collection.. Now if home prices and rent were set back to 20 years ago we can all afford the higher made in America prices.

        1. Some of them may have already been in one…(and I am very concerned about my parents, who are in a retirement community, over the course of this episode).

      1. Last update:

        26,574 infected, 336 deceased.

        There was a massive increase in confirmed cases today, adding over 7,000. It is almost surreal. And the 76 additional deaths is sobering. These numbers are growing very, very quickly. Look at New York – over 12,300 confirmed. It wasn’t long ago that they were reporting less than 100 cases in all of the US. Stay safe out there everybody.

        1. “These numbers are growing very, very quickly.”

          Doubling a penny for 30-days, e.g., 1: $0.02, 2: $0.04, and the last 5-days you get:
          26: $671,088.64
          27: $1,342,177.28
          28: $2,684,354.56
          29: $5,368,709.12
          30: $10,737,418.24

          Or mathematically: $0.01*2^30

  16. One of my (many) concerns right now is social unrest. There are a great many people who are hurting right now, or soon will be.

    How many times have we heard that a large percentage of people are living paycheck to paycheck or can’t afford to pay an unexpected bill of $400? If you make your living as a waiter or as a hair cutter, then these are scary times. Poverty forces people to do things they wouldn’t ordinarily do.

    If you’re doing well, then this is a time to count your blessings and be grateful for what you have (or had).

    Of course we’ll know a lot more in the next 30 days than we know now, but celebrating another’s misfortune is not a very honorable thing to do.

    Now go wash your hands.

    1. Yep…had a couple of armed robberies at SD County 7-Elevens recently, apparently in defiance of the social distancing guidelines.

    2. My main concern is the specter of permanent lung damage. There is some evidence that the virus will slow (not stop) over the summer. That will buy us time to ship tests, position supplies, and get some kind of treatment cocktail.

        1. This is something I really hope to see published. Just what were all of these “underlying conditions” that everyone talks about? I’m hoping that the hospital staff had time to take the information down.

          The news is too damn vague these days, like they’re taking to their 4-year-old kids. I also have some suspicions that they are keeping it quiet because at least it appears to vice-related: smoking, drinking, toking, vaping, overeating. This is not to dump on people with COPD or Crohn’s.

  17. I heard this morning from one of my friends in the heart of resort territory in NW lower Michigan. New Yorkers who own summer homes there are returning in droves.

      1. For clarification, New Yorkers are escaping to Michigan homes to shelter there? Yes. Many non-Michiganders own summer homes there.

    1. This is how you spread the virus far and wide – travelers from hot spots invading other areas.

  18. “Co-founder Nate Blecharczyk’s tweet on the congressional requests provoked a storm of online comments from hosts. One typical response: ‘That’s nice that you’re asking the government to bail us out with loans since @Airbnb has bankrupted us. I literally have $23 in my bank account right now.’”

    Trying to conjure up pity, but not feeling it. Seems speculating on insanely overpriced housing and expecting a steady stream of short-term “guests” would cover your mortgage was a flawed strategy.

    1. If she was down to $23 in your bank account after a month, then she was cutting everything way to close. How much you want to be she was having dreams of FIRE, like Mr. Money Mustache told her?

    2. Lending longterm (mortgages) based on short term deposits is what brought the banks down in the 80’s, if I recall history correctly.

      Sounds like the AIRBNB financing structure.

  19. “The NAR said it was difficult to predict the short-term effects of the coronavirus on future sales.

    No it’s not. You’re f**ked, REIC. So is everyone that overpaid since 2011.

    1. I saw Larry Yun saying he thinks the demand will be “deferred until later in the year”. And then Danielle Hale was praising the Powell Bux.

      My sides never hurt so much from laughing.

  20. ‘With whole cities shutting down nearly all commerce, no one can say what a fair price is right now, so we’re not making any instant offers,’ said CEO Glen Kelman in a statement.”

    You’re so screwed, Glen. You and your whole business model predicated on limitless Yellen Bux.

  21. And out-of-work folks don’t buy homes while those who already own have trouble keeping them.”

    Sorry, Boomer greedheads and “I’m not giving it away!” asshats. In the age of COVID-19, true price discovery is going to lay waste to your wish prices and expectations that young homebuyers will fund your retirement.

  22. I have heard of a few people not in my office — from lenders I’ve worked with — saying they’ve had things fall apart because people have been laid off.’”

    The real “falling apart” hasn’t even begun yet, Darlene. But it’s coming.

  23. ‘Everyone is in panic mode. We get a lot of calls, and it just stopped completely,’ said David Haynes, a realtor with Royal LePage Team Realty in Ottawa.”

    I’m not in panic mode. I rather enjoy watching this housing bubble implode and the vaporization of fake wealth from my comfy rental house.

  24. ‘On the investor side, there’s widespread panic,’ said Alexi Panagiotakopoulos, partner at Fundamental Income, a real estate strategy firm. ‘There’s downward pressure on every aspect of every asset class.’”

    Die, speculator scum. How many small, struggling retail businesses were forced to shutter their operations against greedy landlords demanded exorbitant rents?

  25. I guess this news predated or ignored the Connecticut announcement?

    Economy
    U.S. economy deteriorating faster than anticipated as 80 million Americans are forced to stay at home
    Already, it is clear that the initial economic decline will be sharper and more painful than during the 2008 financial crisis
    Jeremiah O’Brien, manager of the Block, a restaurant in Charleston, W.Va., wipes down tables after closing Tuesday.
    Jeremiah O’Brien, manager of the Block, a restaurant in Charleston, W.Va., wipes down tables after closing Tuesday. (F. Brian Ferguson/Charleston Gazette-Mail/AP)
    By David J. Lynch and
    Heather Long
    March 20, 2020 at 5:20 p.m. PDT

    The U.S. economy is deteriorating more quickly than was expected just days ago as extraordinary measures designed to curb the coronavirus keep 84 million Americans penned in their homes and cause the near-total shutdown of most businesses.

    In a single 24-hour period, governors of three of the largest states — California, New York and Illinois — ordered residents to stay home except to buy food and medicine, while the governor of Pennsylvania ordered the closure of nonessential businesses. Across the globe, health officials are struggling to cope with the growing number of patients, with the World Health Organization noting that while it required three months to reach 100,000 cases, it took only 12 days to hit another 100,000.

    The resulting economic meltdown, which is sending several million workers streaming into the unemployment line, is outpacing the federal government’s efforts to respond. As the Senate on Friday raced to complete work on a financial rescue package, the White House and key lawmakers were dramatically expanding its scope, pushing the legislation far beyond the original $1 trillion price tag.

    1. At what point is the reaction worse than the disease? I think there’s been an overreach in many aspects. For instance, instead of shutting down businesses, why couldn’t they institute policies which limit human to human contact? For starters, they could say that only x number of customers and employees are allowed per square foot in any building. All people have to wear masks and goggles, with heavy emphasis on producing enough of these safety supplies for the masses. Mandatory 6′ spacing from human to human. All businesses can stay open 24 hours, if they so choose, to spread the shopping out to allow for thinner crowds. There are ways to handle this without just shutting everything down.

      1. I said this a while back, but to repeat myself, this is a Keynesian Ugliness Contest: It’s not the ugliness of COVID-19 that matters, but rather the perceived ugliness that drives political decisions about how to cope with the outbreak.

      2. “For starters, they could say that only x number of customers and employees are allowed per square foot in any building.”

        I visited two food retail outlets this morning taking that approach.

        If it works for food, then why not for movies, clothing, sporting goods, etc?

      3. “… instead of shutting down businesses, why couldn’t they institute policies which limit human to human contact? ..”

        Excellent idea. Good, common sense. Could be implemented in phases dependent on which businesses are least problematic.

        Big takeaway lesson from all of this is how easily [many of] the human species can trigger itself into panic mode.

    2. I remember 2008. Got laid off in April 2009.

      The United States is about to experience an unprecedented economic disruption that nobody (except us rich renters who remember 2008) has ever seen. It’s gonna get worse, then it’s gonna get worser, then it’s gonna get more worse than that.

      P.S. Debt is slavery.

      1. We have a massive supply side shock taking place right now, as well as cratering demand. I do wonder if the supply side shock will mitigate some of the falling prices on things. Like, if they can’t make any more cars and trucks, then the ones on the lot aren’t going to get much cheaper. That’s just a crude example.

        1. Vehicle production can pick up where it left off after the quarantine, and meanwhile, dealerships are closed, demand is absent, so no inventory is moving. This one seems like it will resolve itself.

          The nearterm food supply chain is a bigger challenge.

          1. food supply chain is a bigger challenge

            Shelves are bare because people are stocking up (hoarding). I haven’t seen anything suggesting the normal supply chain is handicapped. If we don’t get out of season fruit, that wouldn’t be a disaster.

          2. “I haven’t seen anything suggesting the normal supply chain is handicapped.”

            Here are some of the issues food producers face:
            1) Asian market channel vaporized, beginning around the end of January.
            2) U.S. consumer market was effectively hammered into the ground over the past 48 hours by “Stay at Home” orders impacting something like 1 in 4 Americans.
            3) So producers just lost a large share of their product demand, although the people forced to stay home and not work are still going to want to eat.

            Any thoughts on how to make this very bad situation less bad?

          3. Here are some of the issues food producers face:

            None of the dire points suggested have much at all to do with the US food supply. Can we live without bleached canned asparagus from China. Of course. Has demand collapsed? Ridiculous. Stay at home? Except to buy groceries, medications, whiskey, and to keep the utilities running. Have to order art supplies online, what’s the crisis?

          4. “Has demand collapsed? Ridiculous.”

            But in some industries, it has already happened. And with one in four Americans on house arrest and prohibited from working, it’s about to get much worse.

          5. Coronavirus Hits Already Frail U.S. Farm Economy
            Corn farmers and cattle ranchers watch commodity prices drop, while produce growers fear labor shortages
            Dairy prices have fallen, with less milk flowing to school cafeterias.
            Photo: angela weiss/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
            By Jacob Bunge,
            Kirk Maltais and
            Jesse Newman
            March 21, 2020 5:30 am ET

            The new coronavirus is dealing another blow to the struggling U.S. agricultural sector, driving down crop and livestock prices and threatening labor shortages for farms.

            Even as consumers clear food staples from supermarket shelves, Midwestern farmers’ prospects have dimmed. Agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have been on a slide since Feb. 24, when coronavirus concerns began to weigh on U.S. stock markets. Corn futures have shed nearly 10%, wheat futures have fallen nearly 2%, and soybean futures have dropped over 4%.

            In U.S. Plains states, prices offered for ranchers’ cattle have dropped over the past two weeks, reflecting selling by investment funds and fears that consumers will eat less beef as they avoid restaurants—and that meatpacking plants could suffer staffing shortages. Longer term, the declines reflect worries that after consumers’ current rush to stock pantries, an economic downturn will limit spending and pressure prices.

          6. fears that consumers will eat less beef as they avoid restaurants

            If the backyard smells drifting through the neighborhood so far are any indication I don’t think that fear is well founded. I saw an article saying Americans seem to be getting back to traditional basics so far…less kale/health food, more beef and potatoes and comfort food in general. I’m guess it’s correct.

      2. then it’s gonna get more worse

        Some people will lose things that were never worth what they thought they were worth. Some people will lose things that they never could afford to begin with. That will lead to less fear and more optimism. A little dose of reality will be good for our future.

        We’re not “all gonna die”. Probably deaths in the US will be significantly less since most of the cars are off the roads and the bars are closed.

        1. Probably deaths in the US will be significantly less since most of the cars are off the roads and the bars are closed. Good point. Lower mortality from car wrecks & DUI may counteract the COVID-19 death toll to some degree.

        2. The problem for the U.S. isn’t so much new cases, which quarantine measures will presumably reduce. Rather it’s the cases already out in our communities, the number of which is a known unknown, and the capacity of our medical system to withstand a sizable increase in emergency caseload, plus the economic costs of shutting down the economy to stamp out transmission.

  26. Laguna (beach?)

    Great $pot, good food, ocean view$, $well folks … pasta @ Salerno’$!
    (take-out hopefully!)

    Corona🙅!

    1. Do you recall a couple of weeks ago, when The OC was trying to keep the coronavirus from getting inside their territorial boundaries?

      1. Community Corner
        53 Test Positive For Coronavirus In OC, Economic Fallout
        The OC Healthcare Agency upped the total of stricken residents. While businesses comply with strict rules, residents’ livelihoods suffer.
        By Ashley Ludwig, Patch Staff
        Mar 19, 2020 6:05 pm PT | Updated Mar 19, 2020 7:00 pm PT
        The OC Healthcare Agency upped the total of stricken residents. People are asked to remain socially distant on the 1st day of spring.
        (Shutterstock)

        MISSION VIEJO, CA —On Thursday evening, the Orange County Healthcare Agency reported 53 total cases of coronavirus, up from 42 on Wednesday, and 29 on Tuesday.

        – 33 of the infected are men.
        – 20 are women.
        – 25 are travel related.
        – 7 are person to person spread.
        – 19 cases are community acquired.
        – 2 cases, one man and one woman, remain under investigation.
        – 26 fall into the age range of 18 to 49
        – 17 are 50 to 64 years old
        – 10 are 65 and older.

        To date, there have been 589 people tested for new coronavirus.

        The county has enough tests for 942 specimens as of Thursday afternoon.

          1. “2.75 days doubling time Not valid since the # of tests administered is also doubling every few hours.”

            Your point is definitely taken; my calculation is more of a tangent line to a derivative than a description of the curvature.

            Your point about rapid growth in the testing rate on top of the latent case count growth gets to why I suggested the case count growth rate is likely to be “more than exponential” over the near term.

      2. Eye’m wandering in “Thee.Oh.$ee!” this.day … total auto.clu$ter.traffic.di$aster @ the Honda Center, near Angel’s $tadium … Cau$e?: Giving away free food!

      3. Do you recall a couple of weeks ago, when The OC was trying to keep the coronavirus from getting inside their territorial boundaries?

        When Disneyland closed we knew that battle was lost.

  27. The Financial Times
    Corporate bonds
    Corporate borrowing costs soar amid default fears
    Interest rates for even highly rated companies double from levels of days ago
    (200320) — WASHINGTON D.C., March 20, 2020 (Xinhua) — Photo taken on March 19, 2020 shows U.S. dollar banknotes in Washington D.C., the United States. The Trump administration’s plan to send Americans relief money as part of a massive stimulus package in response to COVID-19 could be 1,000 U.S. dollars per person, and 500 dollars per child, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday. (Xinhua/Liu Jie) Xinhua News Agency / eyevine Contact eyevine for more information about using this image: T: +44 (0) 20 8709 8709 E: info@eyevine.com http://www.eyevine.com
    Rating agency Moody’s estimates the default rate for speculative-grade companies could hit nearly 10 per cent © Xinhua News Agency / eyevine
    Joe Rennison in London and Eric Platt in New York 11 hours ago

    Borrowing costs for companies around the world are rising dramatically despite central bank interest rate cuts as rating agencies warn that the economic impact of the coronavirus will lead to a surge of corporate downgrades and defaults.

    Fears about creditworthiness are prompting investors to put their money in the most easily traded securities — such as short-term government debt — raising borrowing costs for more highly rated corporate borrowers and choking off credit to riskier ones.

    Rating agency Moody’s estimates the default rate for speculative-grade companies could hit nearly 10 per cent, with energy companies particularly hard hit. That is up from 2.3 per cent a year ago, and a historical average of 4 per cent.

    “I think the pandemic coupled with the oil price crash and the asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock across regions, sectors and markets,” said Anne Van Praagh, a researcher at Moody’s.“The combined credit effects are unprecedented. This is not like anything we have seen before.”

  28. Coronavirus: (UK) Government to pay up to 80% of workers’ wages

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51982005

    The government will pay the wages of employees unable to work due to the coronavirus pandemic, in a radical move aimed at protecting people’s jobs.

    It will pay 80% of salary for staff who are kept on by their employer, covering wages of up to £2,500 a month.

    Scotty! I need more money!

    I canna make the printing presses run any faster, Captain!

    1. In a way this idea is smart .

      First it keeps the employer from firing the employee.

      It also keeps the employee from filing for unemployment insurance that would be a smaller check.

      Than it saves the red tape cost of the servicing of a unemployment claim.

      That is the other thing I hate about big government and that is the cost to administer all these programs.

  29. It will be interesting to see if this affects the negative yields on German bonds.

    The Financial Times
    Coronavirus
    Germany tears up fiscal rule book to counter coronavirus pandemic
    Berlin to raise €150bn in new debt to bolster ailing economy
    Mandatory Credit: Photo by ARMANDO BABANI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock (10587467b)
    German Chancellor Merkel address to the nation on coronavirus, Frankfurt Main, Germany – 18 Mar 2020
    © ARMANDO BABANI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
    Guy Chazan in Berlin
    6 hours ago

    Germany is to take on more than €150bn of new debt as part of a sweeping package of emergency measures to save its economy from the brutal effects of the coronavirus pandemic, in what amounts to a radical break with the strict “black zero” fiscal policies of the past.

    Finance minister Olaf Scholz will also present the German cabinet with plans to create a new €500bn bailout fund to rescue companies hit by the outbreak, according to three people familiar with the plans.

    The measures mark a new era in German fiscal policy and an abrupt departure from Berlin’s long-held commitment to balanced budgets — the mantra of “schwarze Null”, or “black zero”, that has been such an abiding feature of Angela Merkel’s time in office.

    It reflects growing alarm in government circles at the profound impact the epidemic is having on the eurozone’s largest economy, as big industrial companies close factories, the service sector is disabled and economic activity melts away.

    At a cabinet meeting on Monday, Mr Scholz will present plans for a €156bn supplementary budget for 2020 and a new €100bn economic stabilisation fund — to be known in German as the WSF — that can take direct equity stakes in stricken companies. It will also be equipped with €400bn in state guarantees to underwrite the debts of companies affected by the turmoil, bringing its total firepower to €500bn.

    Mr Scholz also envisages a €100bn government loan to KfW, the state development bank, which has been empowered to provide unlimited cash to businesses struggling with the fallout from the pandemic.

    Taken together, the supplementary budget, plus the €100bn for the WSF and the €100bn loan to the KfW amount to €356bn — or about 10 per cent of Germany’s GDP.

    The WSF will be in effect be a “reactivation” of Soffin, a government-backed vehicle set up in 2009 to bail out troubled banks. Soffin currently manages the government’s 15.6 per cent stake in Commerzbank, which it rescued during the global financial crisis.

    The WSF will not only underwrite companies’ debts but also recapitalise those experiencing financial difficulties due to the coronavirus turmoil, effectively paving the way for a wave of partial state takeovers.

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Football
      A farewell, for now, to all the distracting glories of sport

      Why do we tie our happiness to games we cannot influence and which have no real impact on us?
      Fans will miss the escapist distractions of football, tennis, cricket, American football and even golf

      Henry Mance yesterday

      It’s ironic, at least in the Alanis Morissette sense. For my entire life, the world’s sporting federations have been trying to turn me into a couch potato — gorging on endless amounts of high-quality sporting “content”. Now I have nothing else to do, and there’s no sport to watch.

      The Premier League, the Six Nations, Euro 2020, the French Open, probably the Olympics — all postponed. Sport was the distraction that became the main event — the dessert that became a main course. Now it’s off the menu.

      It’s tempting to see this as an opportunity. A respite from the egos, the money, the absurd controversies. Why do we tie our happiness to games which we cannot influence and which do not influence our health or financial wellbeing?

      But I will miss it. I will miss Tottenham manager José Mourinho explaining a 4-0 home defeat by pointing out his team should have had a throw-in in the second half.

      I will miss John McEnroe saying of a struggling tennis player, “He can’t buy a first serve.”

      I will miss Manchester City finding that no corporate lawyer is good enough to defend its finances.

      I will miss other football clubs discovering some foreign “billionaires” have no actual money.

      I will miss retired cricketers spending the final five decades of their lives discussing the way they hit a ball in their twenties.

      I will miss rugby commentators expressing shock at serious injuries as if they were unforeseeable. I will not miss rugby league.

      I will miss trying to learn the rules of American football once a year.

      I will miss no one caring about baseball.

      I will miss the Oxford-Cambridge Boat Race, even though it violates the spirit of sport by making winning the only form of
      success and second place abject failure.

      I will miss people pretending that golf is a sport, rather than a gigantic waste of water.

      I will miss avoiding anyone who expresses interest in Formula One.

      I will miss boxers predicting what round they will knock each other out in, even though no boxer in history has successfully predicted this.

      I will miss the bit in the Grand National when a riderless horse briefly leads the field, reminding us that the animals can run faster without us.

      I will miss Sebastian Coe pretending that the London Olympics he was charged with organising were on budget.

      I will miss every country in the world thinking that they are excelling at the Olympics, simply because national TV only screens the events they are good at.

      I will miss Chinese-language advertising at English football stadiums.

      I will miss reminding myself how much free time footballers have by counting the number of new tattoos on their necks.

      Most of all, I will miss us football fans pretending that the game they just watched was incredible, remarkable, unprecedented — when, of course, even the most extraordinary outcomes will happen regularly, given the overload of sport we watch.

    2. Music Artists Coalition Lobbies President Trump For Live Music Business Aid
      11:28 AM, Thursday, 3/19/2020
      By: Francisco Rendon

      The Music Artists Coalition sent a letter to U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin on March 18 pleading for support for the “hundreds of thousands of people whose livelihoods depend on the live music business.”

      Signatories on the letter include Lizzo, John Mayer, Maren Morris, Anderson .Paak, Charlie XCX, Cold War Kids, ODESZA, Little Big Town, Stevie Nicks, Steve Miller, Diplo, Sheryl Crow, Def Leppard, Dave Matthews, Lionel Richie, and Sara Bareilles.

      The letter says that the cancellation of tours, concerts, festivals, and other events have left many in the industry without any form of income.

      “Concerts are not just about the headliner,” the letter reads. “The foundation of live music are the touring musicians, truck and bus drivers, stagehands, production teams, crews who handle lighting, sound, equipment, security, and so many others [who] do not have any option for work as there are no live events for the foreseeable future.”

      1. I have heard for years that people in the entertainment
        business would apply for unemployment in-between gigs. I don’t know if it’s true or not. Maybe big Stars should be a little more generous .

        Every industry is going to vie for bail outs. If a Company has great net assets, aren’t they able to weather the storm.

        1. Moral hazard. Why bother to be frugal to accumulate great assets , if you can party on debt and then beg for a bailout?

    1. The Dow is on pace for its worst month since the Great Depression…
      Published: March 21, 2020 at 6:29 p.m. ET
      By Mark DeCambre
      The percentage drop so far in March for the Dow would rank as its second-worst in history after the 30.7% monthly skid in September of 1931

      The month of March has rolled in like a ferocious lion for bullish stock-market investors, leaving little but carnage in its aftermath, as uncertainties about the effects of the coronavirus outbreak abound.

      The decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -4.54%) has been simply gut-wrenching for the average investor, with the monthly plunge so far for the nearly 124-year-old, blue-chip gauge poised to represent its steepest since 1931 — a year that falls within the Great Depression, the worst economic crisis in U.S. history.

      The Dow has shed a staggering 6,235 points, or 24.54%, in March so far, which has dragged the stock index down to its lowest level since December of 2016. The percentage drop so far ranks as its second-worst in history after the 30.7% monthly skid in September of 1931, when the unemployment rate was at a lofty 15.9%.

      1. a staggering 6,235 points, or 24.54%, in March so far

        As of today’s futures it is off 7,820 or 29% with another week to go.

        As of the past 30 days, off 9,078 or 32.5%

        If we’re going to rhyme with history, there’s another 50% to melt down from here. Not that a “recovery” would be seen before my “best used by” date.

        1. I don’t think there’s going to be a V-shaped stock market “recovery,” but I could be wrong. I think we’re seeing the death of this entire debt bubble.

        2. “…there’s another 50% to melt down from here.”

          A seldom-mentioned problem with the magic of exponential compounding is that it can apply to exponential decay as well as to exponential growth.

    2. Market Snapshot
      As Dow wipes out over 3 years of stock-market gains, here’s a warning about calling the bottom
      Published: March 21, 2020 at 4:42 p.m. ET
      By William Watts
      Resist the temptation, say Wall Street pros

      How much worse can it get?

      That’s a question many investors are undoubtedly asking themselves after a week of historic volatility that saw stocks suffer another pummeling and drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its lowest close since December 2016 as the global COVID-19 pandemic promises to push the world into recession.

      After all that, some investors might feel a strong temptation once the market finally shows some stability to declare that the lows are in. But some Wall Street veterans have a word of advice: Don’t!

      “First, let’s acknowledge that none of us can predict when the market will bottom,” said Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, in a Friday note.

      “The number of new COVID-19 cases will likely need to peak before we get there. That’s a question for the epidemiologists to answer and a challenge for Americans and global citizens to take social distancing and/or isolation seriously,” he wrote.

      1. COVID-19 cases will likely need to peak

        Will insolvency cases go away magically when the virus does?

        1. That is the problem with the v-shaped recovery hypothesis. Lots of residual damage due to the current financial collapse may linger long beyond the end of the COVID-19 outbreak.

  30. The New York Post
    New York City’s accelerating coronavirus death toll tops one an hour
    Published: March 21, 2020 at 9:09 a.m. ET
    By Julia Marsh
    Brooklyn, then Queens has the most known positive cases
    People wait to be pre-screened for the coronavirus outside the Brooklyn Hospital Center on March 20. AFP via Getty Images

    The coronavirus killed city residents at a rate of more than one per hour on Friday.

    Between just 10 a.m. and 6 p.m., 14 people in New York City died from the virus, pushing the Big Apple’s total death toll to 43.

    The toll had been 29 prior to Friday’s jump in deaths.

  31. Woe$er & woe$er …

    CORONAVIRU$

    Peru spars with U.S. over letting stranded Americans fly home during coronaviru$ outbreak
    The South American nation wants assurances that its citizens will be given safe passage back from the U.S. before Americans are allowed to leave, sources close to the situation say.
    POLITICO / By GAVIN BADE, NAHAL TOOSI and SAM MINTZ
    / 03/21/2020

    Peru is in the process of shutting down all international travel, but thousands of Americans are believed to remain in the country. An U.S. official familiar with the situation said the Peruvian government is not allowing them to leave until the White House ensures thousands of Peruvians are given safe passage home.

    “We are actively engaging State Department officials to coordinate in a harmonic way the best way to carry out bringing Americans from Peru back to the U.S. and Peruvians in the U.S. back to Peru,” said Rodolfo Pereira, press counselor for the Peruvian Embassy in Washington. “What we are trying to set up is the best system to conduct that operation.”

    Pereira dismissed questions about tensions between the two sides, saying there are constant communications, including at high levels, and that much of what is being discussed is logistics.

    he said he didn’t know exactly how many Peruvians in the United States were trying to get back home, but estimated that it was about 6,000. He described them as a mix of students, vacationers and temporary workers. He noted that Peru’s government was trying to help its citizens stranded in other countries return as well while Peru imposes a full shutdown of its borders and airports.

    1. Why the hell didn’t these people go back to their home countries two weeks ago?!

  32. Y’all can argue about “statistics” ’till the sun.goes.down., evidence is making all the “cry, piss & moan” seem worthless.

    There was a eerily similar report about a 43 year old “healthy.ad.a.horse” man from San Gabriel, CA this a.m., had recently passed through LAX before getting a “mild” cold, found dead in bed.

    17:20 EDT Today:

    A devastating story out of New Orleans today could offer a corrective to the misconception that coronavirus only kills the old and immunocompromised.

    Natasha Ott, 39, felt the beginnings of a cold coming on 11 days ago. On Monday, she was tested for coronavirus and failing to shake symptoms consistent with the new strain. On Friday, she was found dead in her kitchen before the results were returned.

    Ott’s partner says the dearth of available tests “shows how ill-equipped New Orleans is to handle a pandemic that has already claimed 16 lives and infected nearly 600 people across the state”.

  33. $elf.$erving., $elf.fullfilling.profite$ie$!

    BUSINE$$ NEW$
    MARCH 21, 2020

    Exclu$ive: Goldman inject$ $1 billion into own money-market fund$ after heavy withdrawal$

    Reuters / By Tim McLaughlin

    Indu$trywide, investor$ pulled ten$ of billion$ of dollar$ from prime money-market fund$, which buy top-rated corporate debt. Although they are among the tamest investment vehicles, they can be ri$kier than portfolio$ that rely more on U.$. government bond$.

    Its support came as markets had another violently volatile week over concerns about the coronavirus pandemic, and represents an extraordinary move in the staid money-market fund industry.

    Goldman, which disclosed the moves on Friday in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, did not have an immediate comment.

    Weekly liquidity levels at the nearly $18 billion Goldman Sachs Fund Square Money Market Fund dropped to 34% on Thursday from 43% on Monday. SEC rules on weekly liquidity dictate that funds have to keep at least 30% of their portfolios in securities that can be converted to cash in five business days.

      1. “It appears Jeffrey was higher-risk patient. He had a history of asthma and frequent bronchitis as a child, though he outgrew that. He also had undergone surgery for testicular cancer back in 2016.”

    1. Kits are being prioritized to areas of need. If you aren’t one of them, count your blessings.

  34. Santa Clara, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As One Bay Area Broker Conceded, “Sellers Are Willing To Take A Loss Just To Escape From Bay Area”

    https://www.zillow.com/santa-clara-ca-95051/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist stated, “A house is a rapidly depreciating asset that empties your wallet every day it owns you.”

    1. 30 days that brought the world to the brink of a depression
      By Charles Riley, CNN Business
      Updated 7:34 AM ET, Sat March 21, 2020

      London (CNN Business) Monday, February 17. The novel coronavirus outbreak is raging in China, but fewer than 1,000 people have been infected outside the country. With the virus out of sight and mostly out of mind, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stands just shy of 30,000 points, driven by the longest US economic expansion in history.

      What investors couldn’t know is that over the next 30 days, the coronavirus would burst out of quarantine in China, with major outbreaks in South Korea and Italy, then Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. It brought business to a sudden stop, sent stock markets into a meltdown and forced central banks to take emergency action on a scale even greater than during the 2008 global financial crisis.

      A global recession, once unthinkable in 2020, is now a foregone conclusion and some experts warn that the pandemic could drag the world’s economy into a depression. More bad news: The coronavirus outbreak may just be getting started.

  35. Why didn’t the governor just put out an executive order banning tourists from entering the state? This new measure will have the same effect.

    Hawaii governor announces mandatory 14-day quarantine for all incoming travelers to state

    Posted: Mar 21, 2020 / 09:10 PM CDT / Updated: Mar 21, 2020 / 09:35 PM CDT

    HONOLULU (KHON2) — Hawaii Governor David Ige announced on March 21 that he signed a second emergency proclamation. This proclamation mandates a 14-day quarantine for all incoming travelers to the state of Hawaii.

    This measure will go into effect on March 26 at 12:01 a.m.

    “We believe that it will help us to flatten the curve so that our healthcare system is not overwhelmed like it has been in other communities around the world,” Gov. Ige said.

    According to Hawaii Emergency Management Agency Director Kenneth Hara, returning residents are ordered to quarantine at home. As for visitors, they will have to remain in their hotel rooms.

    “You may leave your designated quarantine for medical emergencies or to seek medical care,” said Hara. “If the traveler becomes ill with a fever or cough they are to continue to stay in their designated quarantine location and avoid contact with others.”

    The governor says that this mandate will go into effect on March 26 to allow travelers the opportunity to cancel or reschedule their trip to the state. He says it will also allow industry partners to adjust to the new mandate.

  36. This morning, I parked my vehicle just off the road and went out for an extended hike in Joshua Tree National Park.

    When I got back in the afternoon, there was a sticker on my front windshield. Informing me that the park had been closed, and I needed to proceed to the exit.

    Within a couple minutes, a Ranger in a jeep came by and stopped. I finished putting away my stuff and he escorted me to the gate.

    Apparently, even hiking in the fresh air of the desert put you at risk for Covid 19.

    1. Welcome to the police state. Pretty soon the military will be blocking all major highways between states.

    2. Eye’m cornfused … eye’m sure eye’m knot alone!

      National parks are free, but some oppose that amid the viru$

      APNews / By BRADY McCOMBS and JAMES ANDERSON / March 19, 2020

      SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Most national parks are open as a refuge for Americans tired of being stuck at home during a pandemic, but despite now being free to visit, people may find it more difficult to enjoy them as parks close visitor centers, shuttles, lodges and restaurants to fight the spread of the coronavirus.

      Parks are trying to keep up with ever-changing rules and recommendations from government officials who are urging people to avoid gathering in large groups but allowing them to get outside for fresh air and exercise as long as they keep away from others.

      The National Park Service says it’s adhering to the latest guidelines from the White House and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, vowing to keep outdoor spaces open while giving park superintendents the power to close or modify operations.

      Interior Secretary David Bernhardt this week temporarily waived entrance fees at national parks, monuments and wildlife refuges to make it easier for people to get outdoors and “implement some social distancing.”

      A hospital in Moab, Utah, also has implored state officials to slow the flow of people coming to see the red rocks and unique formations at Arches and Canyonlands national parks over fears the facility couldn’t handle an outbreak. In response, officials this week limited hotel stays to people in town for work and banned dining in restaurants.

      Nationally, parks are devising ways to stay open while keeping people safely apart and trying to ensure employees stay healthy. Many closed visitor centers, museums and entrance booths while rangers are stationed outside to field visitors’ questions.

      Yellowstone National Park, Mount Rainier National Park in Washington state and Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado also closed facilities. Most amenities and roads in Yellowstone — which spans parts of Wyoming, Montana and Idaho — and Rainier normally are closed this time of year because of deep snow. The Statue of Liberty National Monument and Ellis Island in New York are closed entirely.

      In Northern California, visitor centers at several destinations managed by the park service, such as Muir Woods National Monument, Alcatraz Island and the Golden Gate Bridge, are closed. Yosemite National Park closed its campgrounds.

      Chris Brunell, who spent most of the past three weeks camping in Yosemite, said he was told he had to pack up and leave Thursday, two days earlier than he expected.

      Brunell, who was laid off from a Silicon Valley technology job before the outbreak, said the park emptied noticeably after lodging and restaurants closed Tuesday.

  37. Relocation update: My friend is still moving out of her house by the 24th and may have the opportunity to move into her new home before the end of June. Because the kids are out of school and the baby isn’t due until May, it’s apparently an okay time to move. SMH.

  38. At least our public officials are hanging in there with the challenges they face.

    World News
    March 21, 2020 / 8:43 PM / Updated 38 minutes ago
    Ecuador coronavirus cases increase by over 400 in less than a week, health minister quits
    Elderly stand in line to collect their monthly pension before the 4:00 pm – 8:00 am curfew imposed by the government to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Guayaquil, Ecuador March 20, 2020. REUTERS/Santiago Arcos

    QUITO (Reuters) – Ecuador’s health and labor ministers resigned on Saturday, just hours after officials announced the number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus had shot up to over 500 in the country. The government declared a state of emergency on Monday, prohibiting travelers from entering and imposing a night-time curfew along
    with other measures to restrict internal movement in a bid to stop the spread of the virus.

    Officials reported 532 cases and seven recorded deaths during a virtual press conference on Saturday. On Tuesday, Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner had reported two deaths from the virus and 111 cases, double the previous day’s count of 58.

    Hours after the announcement, officials confirmed the resignation of Health Minister Catalina Andramuno, without providing details, and appointed Juan Carlos Zevallos, a doctor who has worked in several universities, as her replacement. The labor minister also resigned, a presidential announcement said. After health professionals complained on social networks they lacked adequate protection to tend to those infected, Andramuno toured public hospitals on Friday, assuring staff they would be provided with sufficient medical supplies and devices.

    1. San Diego
      An Empty San Diego After Stay-at-Home Order
      By Catherine Garcia • Published March 21, 2020 • Updated on March 21, 2020 at 10:37 am
      NBC 7’s Catherine Garcia has videos of what San Diego looks like after the stay at home order.

      San Diego city leaders urged locals Friday to heed Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

      San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer said the city has seen “unprecedented cooperation” from residents to various orders to stay at home and practice social distancing.

      On Friday, NBC 7’s drone provided a surreal view of some of San Diego County’s most iconic spots.

    2. Everett mayor issues stay at home directive to all residents
      By: KIRO 7 News Staff
      Updated: March 21, 2020 – 1:27 PM

      EVERETT, Wash. — The mayor of Everett issued a directive Friday instructing all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential activities.

      The order, which takes effect at noon Monday, tells everyone to stay home except for necessary errands, walks and caring for friends and relatives.

      Essential businesses, such as grocery stores, pharmacies, child care and banks, can remain open. Nonessential business owners were directed to stay home.

      1. Trump is talking about closing the Stock Market.

        This seems to be warranted right now.

        1. I’m going to make a stab at getting groceries today . It’s impossible to get the social distance I want at those crowded stores right now.

          I’m going to wrap something around my face and I have plastic gloves. I have soap in the car. I hope it does the trick.

          1. IMO you should ditch the plastic gloves; The coronavirus can’t be absorbed through the skin.

          2. “I’m going to make a stab at getting groceries today.”

            On a weekend day? Better idea a weekday, early.

          3. As I mentioned yesterday, for whatever reason, Sprouts was not at all crowded. Nobody was sneezing or coughing that I could discern, and the only time social distancing was limited was at checkout.

            I went back near closing time to pick up a couple of items needed for today’s meal preparation, and was one of maybe three customers in the store, half an hour before closing. So if you are comfortable shopping later in the day, that’s an option for you to try.

            Also, Costco is offering special hours for senior only shopping.

            Good luck!

        2. “This seems to be warranted right now.”

          I wonder what effect closing down stock markets might have on the cash crunch already underway?

        3. There are pitfalls with shuttering financial markets.

          Philippines Record Plunge Shows Risks of Shuttering Stock Market
          Ian Sayson
          Bloomberg
          March 18, 2020, 11:53 PM PDT
          Global Liquidation Triggers Limit Down in Multiple Asia Markets

          (Bloomberg) —

          Philippine stocks’ record 13.3% slump following an unusual two-day shutdown signals the risks associated with controversial moves to halt trading.

          The Philippine Stock Exchange Index plunged as much as 24% in Manila before closing at the lowest level since January 2012, bringing its valuation to the lowest level in 11 years. The declines came ahead of the central bank’s decision to cut its key rate by 50-basis points and amid concerns that a 27 billion peso ($528 million) fiscal stimulus won’t be enough to tackle the spread of the coronavirus.

          “The two-day shutdown closed the doors to investors who were headed for the exit,” said Manny Cruz, strategist at Papa Securities Corp. “The money that wanted to go out got accumulated and investors got scared and lost confidence they can go out anytime they want so they took this resumption as an opportunity to rush to safety.”

        4. I guess India will keep its stock exchanges open, even as they adopt quarantine measures. I guess the financial markets are considered essential infrastructure over there.

          Stock exchanges to remain open as Mumbai stares at shutdown
          ETMarkets.com | Updated: Mar 20, 2020, 04.24 PM IST
          Stock exchanges to remain open as Mumbai stares at shutdown
          BCCL

          Mumbai, the financial capital of the country, is home to the key exchanges NSE and BSE, and houses the headquarters of the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
          MUMBAI: Domestic stock exchanges will remain open even as Mumbai braces for a shut down in light of rising cases of coronavirus pandemic in the state.

          Earlier in the day, Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray announced that all workplaces in major cities in Maharashtra, including Mumbai and Pune, will remain closed till March 31.

          The state government has ordered a complete shutdown in Mumbai Metropolitan Region, except essential services and public transport. However, banks will remain open in the state, the CM said.

          In a tweet later, the CM clarified that stock exchanges, clearing corporations, depositories, stock brokers and Sebi registered participants operating through these institutions will be exempted from this planned shut down.

  39. Because, due to the coronavirus, people have no jobs and no jobs means no money to pay income taxes …

    Income tax filing deadline postponed three months | PBS NewsHour
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/income-tax-filing-deadline-postponed-three-months

    What fun! Those who earned big bucks LAST year are required to pay taxes on those earnings THIS year. But if they do not have the earnings this year to pay these taxes on last year’s earnings then they are screwed.

  40. Senate to vote today on giving $1200 to every USA adult. What will you do with your government cheese? I’ll either put mine in savings account or send it to my mom. I’m a renter so it’s not like I need the money anyway.

    1. I’m a renter so it’s not like I need the money anyway.

      I know of many renters who are counting on those free cheese checks to pay the rent.

    2. “What will you do with your government cheese?”

      If the jobs we are working on are not shut down by Martial Law I think I will buy the guys all a takeout burger lunches from the Brass Ring.

    3. In spousal negotiations to purchase a Baby Taylor travel guitar. She wants me to wait until after the coronacrisis is over, but I will press my case in a month or so if a good dips buying opportunity emerges. (Footnote: I picked up a violin at 15% off in the aftermath of The Great Recession. )

        1. Got my eye on a pair of purple crocodile Louboutins. In 3 months, should’ve able to get them pretty cheap. May never go back to work to wear them, but, they’re craftsman art. By that I mean someone who actually knew what they were doing made them, which is more than i can say for Fine Art these days.

      1. Eh. That’s pretty inexpensive insofar as musical instruments are concerned. I think she should cut you some slack and let you buy it. If you were talking about a Martin D-45, well, that’s a whole different $tory!

    1. These days the hotties cut-out the middlemen like Hefner with an public (teaser) and private (juicy) Instagram accounts and a PayPal account to process subscriber payments.

    2. Didn’t they stop showing nude women or something? I seem to remember that, which was an extremely stupid move. Because the ONLY reason men bought the magazine was to look at naked women. Anybody who said they bought PLAYBOY for the articles was a lion.

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