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If This Lasts, Folks Are Going To Need To Sell

A report from Realtor.com. “‘The biggest initial coronavirus hit will be felt in the tourism and hospitality industries,’ says realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. These are the same places where folks tend to buy vacation homes. ‘Second-home markets tend to be hit a bit harder in a recession. … When people are cutting back, that’s where they’ll cut back,’ says Hale. The luxury home market is also expected to feel the pain.”

“We looked at the counties with the highest percentage of workers in the industries that are most likely to be affected. The most vulnerable county was Horry County, SC, home to Myrtle Beach, with a median county home list price of $239,050 as of February, according to the most recent realtor.com data. It was followed by Clark County, NV, where Las Vegas is located, with a median county list price of $329,050; Atlantic County, NJ (Atlantic City), at $250,050; Orange County, FL (Orlando), at $359,950; and Orleans Parish, LA (New Orleans), at $349,050.”

“Rounding out the top 10 were Honolulu County, HI, at $636,050; New London County, CT (Mystic), at $287,550; Monterey County, CA (Carmel-by-the-Sea), at $1,173,050; Chatham County, GA (Savannah), at $325,050; and Prince William County, VA (Washington, DC, suburbs), at $480,050. ‘It’s a very difficult time right now for Myrtle Beach and other areas like it,’ says Robert Salvino, director of the Grant Center for Real Estate and Economics at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, SC. ‘Transactions will decline.'”

‘Second-home markets are the first to be affected’ by a recession, says Salvino. ‘People are going to hold off on buying until they know they’re secure and prioritize affording the first home.'”

“In Atlantic County, home to Atlantic City, NJ (No.3 on our list), folks struggling to pay their bills may sell their vacation homes to help alleviate some of their expenses. ‘Some people rent [out] during the summer season to help alleviate some of the expenses,’ says David Fiorenza, an economics professor at Villanova University in the Philadelphia suburbs. ‘It’s going to be harder for people if they have two mortgages, one at their primary residence and one at their secondary residence.'”

“The market in Monterey, CA, an affluent, seaside county just south of Silicon Valley, is already beginning to stall. The market is split between primary and vacation homes. There has been only 12 closings for Monterey County homes costing $1.5 million and more as of March 18—typically, that number would have been closer to 30, says real estate broker Andrew Oldham of Compass, who’s based in Carmel-by-the-Sea. But now he’s seeing extensions, cancellations, and mortgages that are taking longer to process. Some sellers are pulling their properties off the market or even dropping prices.”

The Norman Transcript in Oklahoma. “Rob Cole, regional manager of Gold Financial Services in southwest Oklahoma City, said the industry was a seller’s market before COVID-19 came to the United States. ‘Before we walked into the utter and complete chaos, it was a seller’s market, 100 percent. Homes were going for top price, little to no closing costs. In today’s market, I feel like it’s going to switch roles and become a buyer’s market,’ said Cole, who serves the metro area. ‘If this lasts, folks are going to need to sell.'”

“Regarding mortgage rates, Cole described the market as very volatile. ‘We saw a massive drop in interest rates due to coronavirus. What happened is your large investors became overwhelmed with trillion dollars of refinance business. So what that did is it triggered a rate increase … The coronavirus has the interest rate market specifically all in a huge turmoil.'”

“Oklahoma City-based Fox Mortgage CEO Thomas Wilson, who serves the entire state, said what brokers do is pick out lenders on behalf of their borrowers for the best interest rates and programs. However, ‘the disparity between different lenders of where the interest rates are is bigger than I’ve ever seen.’ He said the market fluctuates so rapidly that about an hour after he has quoted a certain interest rate, that number has changed.”

“‘That kind of volatility, I’ve never seen before,’ Wilson said. ‘What it normally takes six to nine months to do is moving in hours. It’s making it pretty tough to tell clients where we’re at because nobody knows.'”

“Wilson said his mortgage refinance load is currently big due to previously low interest rates, which has backed up lenders. Now, some lenders have exited the market, others are no longer doing refinances and rates have increased. Wilson said lenders are scared to give really low rates because it will be tough for them to sell loans onto the secondary market. Also, people are worried about their ability to repay loans.”

“‘You might be a qualified buyer right now, but if unemployment hits 20%, they’re kind of worried about people being able to pay back the mortgages they just got for the home they just purchased,'” Wilson said. ‘It’s a frenzy. It’s really just unprecedented times that we’ve never seen before. I’m having conversations with borrowers that I’ve never had to have before.'”

The New Orleans Advocate in Louisiana. “As the worsening coronavirus crisis puts a clamp on the region’s tourism industry, owners and operators of short-term rental properties in New Orleans say they face an uncertain future. Devrim Hayes, who owns an Airbnb rental property in Treme and manages two dozen others there and in the Marigny, Mid-City and the Warehouse District, said the rentals have been swallowed by a wave of cancellations.”

“‘It had been rolling,’ Hayes said. ‘All my properties had been booked for weekends, even weekdays, at top prices.'”

“But the bookings quickly evaporated as the cases of people diagnosed with COVID-19 increased. ‘Starting the second week in March all the way up to mid-June — the prime money-making months — all reservations that had been confirmed all are canceled,’ he said.”

“The entire lodging sector in New Orleans is in the same predicament since New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell and Gov. John Bel Edwards began taking drastic measures to contain the virus. The city saw an explosion in short-stay rentals in recent years. There were an estimated 8,500 units operating at the end of last year before Cantrell and the City Council passed restrictions.”

“Hayes said he has been desperately searching for alternatives, including renting to some of the medical personnel who’ve come to the city. ‘I would love to put them up for free if I had all the money in the world,’ he said. ‘But I’m losing my income for four months, and some of the owners (of properties he manages) had just invested and have mortgages, furniture expenses and all that stuff. I feel for them.'”

“For owners like Cindy Sehon Zandi, who owns a short-stay rental house in the Bywater area, converting an Airbnb property into a longer-term rental is not an easy choice to make. ‘Do you just wait it out and hope for the remainder of the calendar year it will open up? Or do you settle for much less income and know at least you have something coming in?’ she said, noting that the house might rent for around $2,000 a month — a quarter of what it would make via Airbnb during peak months. ‘Right now, we’re just waiting it out and see how it goes,’ she said.”

From Arlington Now in Virginia. “We’ve seen quite an uptick of Just Reduced homes in recent weeks. Riding an incredible wave of news, with Amazon’s local HQ2 announcement leading the charge, the Just Reduced options were few and far between in 2019. Here in 2020, amid the COVID-19 crisis, the numbers are telling us that more folks are willing to budge in terms of preliminary pricing to get their homes officially sold.”

The Wall Street Journal on New York. “Just as the Manhattan residential real-estate market was shaking itself out of a multiyear slowdown, the party was suddenly over. Sales spiked during the first quarter, but now the market has all but shut down, brokers say, as fears of the new coronavirus and worries over the economy take hold. ‘The market is dead, dead, dead,’ said Donna Olshan, a broker who tracks the luxury Manhattan market.”

“Already, major brokerages have announced cutbacks. Compass told employees it had cut 15% of its staff. Realogy, a publicly traded company that owns major brands such as Century 21, Corcoran and Sotheby’s International Realty, announced temporary salary and workweek reductions. Other firms are still assessing the situation.”

“Diane Ramirez, chief executive of Halstead, said managers were reviewing all aspects of the business. ‘We know we have to be fiscally responsible,’ she said. ‘We are doing a lot of talking about it.'”

“In the first quarter, the median price of a Manhattan apartment was $1.065 million, a drop of 6.25% from the same quarter last year. The average price was $1.88 million, falling 10.3%, because of a decline in sales of apartments for more than $10 million.”

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This Post Has 211 Comments

  1. ‘We’ve seen quite an uptick of Just Reduced homes in recent weeks’

    Eat yer crowz taxpayer.

    2. I mentioned this a couple months back. When Amazon announced HQ2 in Arlington, everybody rejoiced and bought up properties, hoping to sell at a profit to those mythical 25,000 jobs at six-figures each. Problem is, those jobs were probably 3 years away, the speculators were unwilling to pay the carrying costs, and the properties were expensive enough that it’s tough to get rent to pencil out. So prices stagnated. And that was pre-COVID. Now things are even worse. Those jobs might be 4-5 years away, and specs need to get out now.

      As for taxpayers, he lives in an area with tons of defense contractor jobs. I don’t hear of any of them being laid off. Their only tragedy is that they might have to make lunch at home rather than strolling down to the grilled cheese truck. Probably won’t affect house prices too much.

      2. Re: Amazon’s new HQ, the big investment may be in campers and camper parks. Amazon’s camper force started with the last housing bust, and I expect Camper Force will grow with this bust. Houses will have to go down in price. Used RVs and campers may go up with demand.

      3. “those jobs were probably 3 years away”

        More like 30 years away….
        IOW, NOT HAPPENING.

  2. ‘The average price was $1.88 million, falling 10.3%, because of a decline in sales of apartments for more than $10 million’

    The mix!!

  4. ‘The biggest initial coronavirus hit will be felt in the tourism and hospitality industries,’ says realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. These are the same places where folks tend to buy vacation homes. ‘Second-home markets tend to be hit a bit harder in a recession. … When people are cutting back, that’s where they’ll cut back,’ says Hale. The luxury home market is also expected to feel the pain.’

    Now they tell us.

    ‘Second-home markets are the first to be affected’ by a recession, says Salvino. ‘People are going to hold off on buying until they know they’re secure and prioritize affording the first home’

    Bob, are you saying these shack gamblers might walk away?

      1. “Sell now”

        Easier said than done. who is going to buy let alone qualify for a mortgage now?? I think getting priced in forever is the only option at this time.

        1. What if the income stream needed to pay the mortgage just vaporized. Might not forced sale be the only option in that case?

          1. That assumes a functioning market. We’re already getting official moratoriums on repossessions and foreclosures. Heck, my bank sent an email this AM assuring customers that they won’t haul off your F-twofiddy if you can’t make the loan payments. Seems like a great time to be in debt.

    2. I’m trying to think of what kind of tourism and hospitality are in Prince William County VA. Yes, they are far-flung suburbs of DC. But it’s exactly that, bedroom suburbs. No real tourist attractions that I am aware of. Why would there be so many second homes?

        1. But why Prince William County? There’s no reason to own a second home there. The only possible theory is that PW county has Quantico and there are a bunch of those military guys taking out multiple VA loans to build a rental empire.

      2. Is DC accessible from there?

        We stayed in Bethesda during our Spring 2016 trip. Public transportation worked well for us to access National Mall attractions.

        1. P-Bear: short answer: No, DC is not accessible from Prince William County, not for tourists anyway. At its closest point, it’s 20 miles to the center of DC. (Bethesda is 6 miles.) The subway doesn’t go that far. I’m sure there’s a commuter train, but those are limited. By car, it’s a hellish commute either on I-95 or I-66. Most of the people who live there probably don’t commute all the way to the tourist spots.

    3. Short term rentals

      I looked at a condo in MB about 2 years ago but once I heard they allowed ST rentals I just completely walked away.

  5. ‘Regarding mortgage rates, Cole described the market as very volatile. ‘We saw a massive drop in interest rates due to coronavirus. What happened is your large investors became overwhelmed with trillion dollars of refinance business. So what that did is it triggered a rate increase … The coronavirus has the interest rate market specifically all in a huge turmoil’

    ‘‘the disparity between different lenders of where the interest rates are is bigger than I’ve ever seen.’ He said the market fluctuates so rapidly that about an hour after he has quoted a certain interest rate, that number has changed’

    ‘That kind of volatility, I’ve never seen before,’ Wilson said. ‘What it normally takes six to nine months to do is moving in hours. It’s making it pretty tough to tell clients where we’re at because nobody knows’

    ‘Now, some lenders have exited the market, others are no longer doing refinances and rates have increased. Wilson said lenders are scared to give really low rates because it will be tough for them to sell loans onto the secondary market. Also, people are worried about their ability to repay loans’

    ‘You might be a qualified buyer right now, but if unemployment hits 20%, they’re kind of worried about people being able to pay back the mortgages they just got for the home they just purchased’

    So the guberment is telling shack buyers they don’t have to make payments, and lenders don’t want to lend. Do tell!

    Something I meant to mention yesterday: I’ve read that lenders are just plain stalling, saying they don’t call back potential borrowers. It would seem things like loan to value and debt to income are kind of irrelevant.

  6. ‘Devrim Hayes, who owns an Airbnb rental property in Treme and manages two dozen others there and in the Marigny, Mid-City and the Warehouse District, said the rentals have been swallowed by a wave of cancellations’

    ‘It had been rolling,’ Hayes said. ‘All my properties had been booked for weekends, even weekdays, at top prices’

    And of course Devrim, you saved a significant amount of that filthy lucre!

    ‘But the bookings quickly evaporated as the cases of people diagnosed with COVID-19 increased. ‘Starting the second week in March all the way up to mid-June — the prime money-making months — all reservations that had been confirmed all are canceled…‘I would love to put them up for free if I had all the money in the world,’ he said. ‘But I’m losing my income for four months’

    Eh, maybe not.

    ‘and some of the owners (of properties he manages) had just invested and have mortgages, furniture expenses and all that stuff. I feel for them’

    via GIPHY

    1. “had just invested and have mortgages”

      It’s not an investment, it’s a depreciating asset. And one for which you overpaid, are now underwater, and deserve zero bailouts.

    2. “I feel for them’”

      Me too.
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      🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    3. the house might rent for around $2,000 a month — a quarter of what it would make via Airbnb during peak months

      So…if I’m reading that right, now I understand why we had so many people going into the unlicensed hotel business and buying up every extra house in the neighborhood as fast as they could. This crash is gonna be epic…

      1. Do not forget that the government encouraged it as Ben has posted many articles on FHA dropping the bar to qualify for a mortgage. This fraud was actively supported by the government agencies. Otherwise how can jingle male get 5 mortages as “primary residence” or this person with 12 mortgages (yesterday).

          1. Are social distancing laws necessary in Wyoming or Montana? Seems like it goes with the territory.

  7. Fairfax, VA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Northern Virginia/Washington DC Emerges As Ground Zero For Mortgage Fraud Epidemic

    https://www.zillow.com/fairfax-va-22031/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist stated, “If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.”

  8. These yelps of pain are at a time where the price of all assets is still higher than reality.

    Take the S&P 500. It peaked at 3,400. It is over 2,500 now. But at the average stock valuation to GDP from 1971 to 2019, it would be at 1,800. And at the average for 1940 to 2019, it would be at 1,450.

    https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp/

    How about investment grade corporate bonds? As of February, their yield was at a multi-decade low of 2.57%. Perhaps now they are up to 3.0%, after the Fed intervened to keep them from rising. In 2008, the yield had hit 8.85%.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HQMCB10YR

    Compared with those assets, houses are a bargain. Except the price in no way reflects the fact that the Millennials (aka the buyers) are paid 25 percent less on average than Baby Boomers (aka the sellers) were paid at the same point in their careers. And in no way reflects the soaring property taxes and public service cuts to come. And in no way reflects the fact that Millennials better save a hell of a lot more than Baby Boomers did, or else.

    As against that you have lower interest rates. But after these coronavirus deficits, U.S. home buyers will be borrowing in Yuan.

    1. “the price in no way reflects the fact that the Millennials (aka the buyers) are paid 25 percent less on average than Baby Boomers (aka the sellers) were paid at the same point in their careers”

      No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here.

      1. My view: if they want to get $200,000-plus for non-starter homes, they’d better start allowing accessory apartments.

        Of course that might affect the apartment REITs negatively.

    2. its moved over 2620 on the S&P today (Monday)

      I cannot figure out why with Macy’s and others furlong’ing so many

  9. Listening to AEI: 92-95% of FHA loans have a LTV of 95% or more. 50% of Las Vegas loans at risk of default, 25% nationwide.

      1. ‘Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. (NYSE American: IMH, the “Company”), announced today a Company-wide business update.’

        ‘The Company has instituted a two week temporary suspension of all lending activity effective as of the opening of business today, March 30, 2020. The Company is a micro-cap residential mortgage originator and servicer navigating the dislocation associated with the interest rate and credit risk mortgage markets. Liquidity constraints are being experienced by, and de-risking mandates are being initiated by, some of the Company’s capital markets counterparties that have direct access to the Federal Reserve’s funding mechanisms, including certain of the Company’s warehouse lenders, repurchase counterparties and whole loan investors. The actions and continued lack of communication from one of the Company’s whole loan investors has created uncertainty and concern amongst some of the Company’s other capital markets counterparties that the whole loan investor in question might breach its mandatory purchase commitment to the Company, as required by the contract. In light of these events, the Company believes it is necessary to take the temporary and precautionary action of suspending mortgage originations for a two week interval.’

        https://finance.yahoo.com/news/impac-mortgage-holdings-inc-announces-131500016.html

        Oh dear…

        1. New Century Financial filed for bankruptcy on April 2, 2007. (Should have been April 1).

          Is that where we are in this financial crisis? And will the coronavirus cause it to happen faster, or slower?

          1. ‘concern amongst some of the Company’s other capital markets counterparties that the whole loan investor in question might breach its mandatory purchase commitment to the Company’

            Counter parties? Breach contract?

            ‘Liquidity constraints are being experienced by, and de-risking mandates are being initiated by, some of the Company’s capital markets counterparties that have direct access to the Federal Reserve’s funding mechanisms’

            Turn those machines back on!

        2. I did some due diligence on Impac a few years ago.
          If I recall correctly they were buying some of the, what I would describe as lower end loans. Could have changed as this was a few years ago.

  10. ‘the percentage of homes on the market in San Francisco with at least one official price cut – which doesn’t include properties that were withdrawn from the MLS and then re-listed with a lower “original” price – is currently holding at 23 percent, which is nearly double the percentage at the same time last year’

    ‘And the pace of home sales in the city, which was already trending down prior to a stay-at-home order being issued for San Francisco, is now down 20 percent on a year-over-year basis and dropping fast, with the average list price of the homes which are currently in contract down to around $975 per square foot’

    http://socketsite.com/archives/2020/03/inventory-levels-and-sales-continue-to-drop-in-san-francisco.html

    2. ‘And the pace of home sales in the city, which was already trending down prior to a stay-at-home order being issued for San Francisco, is now down 20 percent on a year-over-year basis and dropping fast,…’

      Who wants to sell at a loss?

      Who wants to catch themselves a falling knife?

      And who wants to conduct real estate transactions with coronabugs on the loose…ewwww!

      I’m surprised the market is still functioning at all.

        2. When multiple kids inherit their deceased parents’ SFR, the inclination is to sell immediately. Rarely do they want to deal with the headache of renting it out for a few hundred dollars a month each. They also don’t want to maintain it as it rots away empty. So, they will sell it for whatever the market offers.

          1. When multiple kids inherit their deceased parents’ SFR, the inclination is to sell immediately.

            In this down market it’s a good thing there’s nothing going on that might result in an increased number of deceased parents.

  12. ‘Already, major brokerages have announced cutbacks. Compass told employees it had cut 15% of its staff. Realogy, a publicly traded company that owns major brands such as Century 21, Corcoran and Sotheby’s International Realty, announced temporary salary and workweek reductions. Other firms are still assessing the situation’

    Compass is that money hemorrhaging outfit set-up by Softbank, IIRC.

    Sha na na na – sha na na na na
    Sha na na na – sha na na na na
    Sha na na na – sha na na na na
    Sha na na na – sha na na na na
    Dip dip dip dip dip dip dip dip
    Mum mum mum mum mum mum
    Get a job
    Sha na na na – sha na na na na

  13. Who’d thunk such a $it.u.a.$hin was achievable?

    Mania #2 (Viru$ Hysteria) … i$ feeding & devouring another:
    Mania #1 (Bubble Everything)

    What is an example of $it.u.a.$hunnel irony?

    $ituational irony is also sometimes called an irony of event$. The outcome can be tragic or humorous, but it is always unexpected.

    👾 … versus … 🏠🏧♻️

        2. Because the stock market has bottomed out. Smart people are borrowing money at rock bottom rates and backing up the truck, while publicly announcing that a bottom is months out.

          2. These Ponzi markets aren’t anywhere near bottoming out.

            Two words: “Unlimited QE.”

          3. How can you say that the market is bottoming? Aren’t you the one who looked up the financial newspaper articles in 1930, where none of them knew that they had a Depression on their hands?

            Marketwatch is sounding like that now. It’s clear that they have NO idea what’s going on, but they have to write about SOMEthing, so they’re just making sh!t up.

        4. One thing I’ve noticed in reading various message boards these days is when the stock market is down the general tone of each board is more grim than when the market is up. There’s a weird decoupling from the beer virus stats, as if “the markets” knows better. Maybe people assume those with insider knowledge of happenings behind the scenes are making bets, but the average joe doesn’t have a clue and is just kind of gambling while looking to the market to provide some answer to how long this lockdown will last. Kind of a cargo cult.

  14. Washington Post — While the Bay Area shelters in place, construction on mansions and luxury condos continues (archive dot is adblocker bypass):

    “California’s shelter-in-place order has forced millions of people to stay home and businesses to close to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Some construction workers, however, are still reporting for work to build and renovate Silicon Valley mansions and San Francisco luxury condos, thanks to carve-outs in shelter-in-place orders that exempt any housing construction as “essential” business.

    High-end construction “will never stop because the money’s endless,” says David Berke, owner of Executive Roofing in San Jose.

    http://archive.is/11txn

    1. High-end construction “will never stop because the money’s endless,” says David Berke, owner of Executive Roofing in San Jose.

      Well, sort of true in that construction never fully stops, and the hundred millionaires and billionaires will always be somewhat insulated, but David has overlooked something – the wealthy like to get bids at a good price just as much or more than the next guy. As construction almost completely dries up across the entire industry, David’s going to have more competition than he’s ever seen, because all the roofers are going to be bidding on a mere handful of projects, instead of thousands. That means less money for the Davids of the world, because they will be cutting their bids just to keep a meal on the table.

  15. The Financial Times
    US retail
    US retailers teeter on the brink as 630,000 outlets close
    More bankruptcies predicted as executives scrutinise stimulus deal
    People walk through an empty Brookfield Place mall in lower Manhattan on Sunday © Getty Images
    Alistair Gray 7 hours ago

    Few businesses are in greater need of emergency cash than retailers, yet the $2.2tn US stimulus bill is unlikely to prevent bricks and mortar chains hardest hit by the coronavirus shutdown from going to the wall.

    While Amazon, Walmart and a handful of other operators have the chance to emerge from the crisis in a stronger position thanks to a boom in online deliveries and the rush for household essentials, much of the rest of the sector is facing a historic crunch.

    Almost 630,000 outlets in the US have been forced to close due to fears about Covid-19 and restrictions on movement to contain its spread, according to Coresight estimates seen by the Financial Times. With the National Retail Federation calculating that $430bn in industry revenues could evaporate over the next three months, the question is how many of them will reopen.

    In response to the crisis, retailers such as Victoria’s Secret owner L Brands are furloughing workers. Dividend payouts have been postponed at Macy’s and Nordstrom. Best Buy, TJX and Kohl’s are among 126 discretionary consumer companies to draw a total $86bn from credit lines, according to Autonomous Research.
    …

    1. As far as I’m concerned successful independent retailers should just declare their business defunct, and then open a new one when this over.

      Hopefully landlords will then recognize the value of a savvy and responsible independent entrepreneur, relative to some national chain that has been declared a “credit tenant.”

      1. There is a tea house downtown, of the English High Tea variety. It’s run by an old lady, who owns the building free and clear. It is of course shut down because of the pandemic. If she had to pay rent I think the tea house would be defunct.

    2. Dividend payouts have been postponed at Macy’s and Nordstrom

      Macy’s and Nordstrom were paying dividends?!

  16. ‘As the number of confirmed cases and deaths rise nationwide, Sedona Chamber President and CEO Jennifer Wesselhoff said no businesses are immune from the ripple effect of the crisis. ‘

    “I’m hearing that every single business sector is somehow touched by this pandemic,” she said on Wednes-day, March 18. “Tourism and hospi­tality is extremely impacted. Tours and attractions, retail, grocery — they are all being significantly impacted.”

    ‘Steve Segner, owner of El Portal Sedona Hotel and president of the Sedona Lodging Council, said he feels the next two months will be rough for many. ‘

    “Some of the corporate resorts are closing but many of the independent ones are staying open for now,” he said, adding that he is still receiving reservations. “It looks like in Sedona we’re going to see a 70% to 75% drop. If people can get 20% occupancy in April, they’ll be doing good. We’re thinking May is probably going to be just as bad.”

    “This is huge,” Segner said. “It’s going to be very difficult for many. We’re already hearing about employees being laid off. I feel bad for them. We have to face reality and that means putting on our big boy pants and look at our budgets. Look at how you can help your employees. But cash is king. Make sure you [hoteliers] pay your rent or mortgages any way you can.”

    https://redrocknews.com/news/20-news-stories/116480-sedona-hotels-take-hit-jeeps-halt

    1. ‘The governing board of Arizona’s public university’s are being sued for the pro-rated fees paid by students for of room and board since many left their residences due to the coronavirus pandemic.’

      ‘The 23-page lawsuit against the board, which represents Arizona State University, the University of Arizona and Northern Arizona University, was filed after some students said they felt they were forced to leave campus because of the COVID-19 pandemic. ‘

      “There are a lot of unhappy students and their families as a result. No matter what the universities are saying, the students are being forced out when classes are being canceled, when there are increasing numbers of reported COVID-19 cases on campus, including some at the universities [that] allegedly failed to disclose early on and let it spread,” said attorney Adam Levitt.’

      ‘Room and board and meal plans at the universities range from $10,000 to $15,000 a year.’

      https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/board-representing-3-arizona-universities-sued-for-pro-rated-fees-after-students-leave-amid-pandemic

      Recession proof?

        1. Haha. Nope. They got 15000 worth of room and board in two months. Prepaid by uncle sam or the bank of mom and dad or a HELOC on the childhood home.

          1. My son just got credited for about 35% of his room and board for the semester. But yeah, the online courses will be assumed to be the same tuition value as the on campus versions he was taking before. I’m ok with that for now. I’m really curious to see if they will even open campus in the fall.

  17. Popular second-home destinations are beginning to slow
    I close on my second home condo sale this coming Friday! Gods speed that it all goes thru but it looks as if it will. Than I will be out of Florida for good!! Thank you for all the excellent articles on this blog and the informative/enlightening comments!

  18. Ok, I’m getting concerned about the position of Health Care insurance on paying claims on this C-19 outbreak.

    If the insurance Companies blog down the Courts claiming loopholes toward coverage it would be a disaster.

    People who paid expensive health insurance to protect against a medical disaster aren’t going to like this if Insurance Companies try to squeeze out of paying a claim.

    This was the first thing I thought of when this outbreak started.

    It’s just like when the sleazy lenders got bailed out around 2009.

    What good is having insurance if they try to think of ways to not pay.

    Worse, it makes a argument for a Commie take over of the health care system by big government.

    The insurance Companies have been paying on flu out breaks for a long time and just because there are more cases this time shouldn’t let them off the hook.

    I’m not even going to get into the hidden rationing by health insurance companies that has been going on for a long time.

    1. ” …if In$urance Companie$ try to $queeze out of paying a claim.”

      Ya mean like when “they” cover roof$ damaged by the Hurricane know as Katrina, but the rain$ & flood$ damage$ is your fault!

      1. Right HWY. If they pull stuff like that it’s going to be bad news. I was wondering why they were being so silent.

        Originally the insurance CO’s were saying they were going to wave the deductible on the C-19 test.
        Now who knows what position they are going to take.

  20. How much worse can this picture get?

    Oil Prices Slide As Saudi Arabia Confirms Another Export Boost
    By Tsvetana Paraskova – Mar 30, 2020, 9:00 AM CDT

    Saudi Arabia is not backing down from the oil price war for market share, pledging another increase in its crude oil exports starting in May, despite a growing global glut amid crashing demand.

    “[T]he Kingdom intends to increase its crude oil exports, starting from May, by about 600 thousand barrels per day, bringing the total of Saudi petroleum exports to 10.6 million barrels per day,” an official at the Saudi Arabian Energy Ministry said on Monday, as carried by the official Saudi Press Agency.
    …

    1. It’ll be on the Speaker.Phone, Jared will be “in.the.room”

      Demand$ Destruction!? Ea$y.Pea$y to $olve.

      COMMODITIE$
      MARCH 30, 2020

      Trump to speak with Putin, criticizes Ru$$ian-$audi oil price war as ‘crazy

      Reuters / Lisa Lambert, Diane Bartz

      “I never thought I’d be saying that maybe we have to have an oil (price) increa$e, because we do,” Trump said in a morning interview with Fox News Channel. “The price is so low now they’re fighting like crazy over, over di$tribution and over how many barrel$ to let go.”

      Trump said he would talk with Putin right after the interview and that they would also discuss Russia’s “big problem” with the coronaviru$ pandemic.

      $ad, poor Putain, poor mB$, helpin’ ’em Trumpy, they adore you!

      1. Take oil out & $ell it @ lowe$t Price$ 18 year$ … whil$t …
        you buy$ oil @ its lowe$t & pump it back into the $tategic.$alt.cave$

        How intere$ting.

        Department of Energy:

        DOE Announce$ Notice of $ale of Crude Oil from the $trategic Petroleum Re$erve
        FEBRUARY 28, 2020

        WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy (FE) announced a Notice of Sale of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

        DOE plans to draw down and sell crude oil from three SPR sites—Bryan Mound and Big Hill in Texas, and West Hackberry in Louisiana. This sale will fulfill requirements for Section 404 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 (Public Law 114-74).

        Section 404 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 authorizes the U.S. Secretary of Energy to draw down and sell up to $2 billion of SPR crude oil for fiscal years (FY) 2017 through 2020 to carry out the SPR modernization program. In FY 2020, the Secretary is authorized to sell up to $450 million worth of crude oil from the SPR to carry out the SPR Life Extension Phase II project, in accordance with the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2020 (Public Law 116-94). The proceeds from this sale will be deposited into the Energy Security and Infrastructure Modernization Fund during FY 2020.

        The Notice of Sale announced today includes a price-competitive sale of up to 12 million barrels of SPR crude. The sale will be conducted with crude oil from the following three SPR sites:

        Up to 6 million barrels from Bryan Mound, Texas
        Up to 3 million barrels from Big Hill, Texas
        Up to 3 million barrels from West Hackberry, Louisiana

  22. Everything going on is just to big to bail out.
    Is it possible that everybody declares BK and let the chips fall as they may and reset takes place World wide.

    I’m just saying from a financial standpoint this outbreak sucks.

    Oh well, whatever is going to happen is going to happen.

    1. “Is it possible that everybody declares BK and let the chips fall as they may and reset takes place World wide.”

      “I’m just saying from a financial standpoint this outbreak sucks.”

      If the first thing you say is true, for anyone but those 62 and over and the rich it may not suck at all!

      1. Seniors would lose stock market holdings, possible pensions, the value of real estate etc.

        People dont want to hire seniors so no chance to offset loss by employment.

        Rich people might do ok, but people over 62 on average wont.

    2. “Everything going on is just to big to bail out.”

      I am expecting MarketWatch to have a marquee poster of effeminate Powell in a Superman costume holding a globe over his head.

    1. As I’ve posted in the past on other topics, it’s never about the content of a Narrative as much as it is about the control of a Narrative.

  24. ‘All this came as a surprise to one person who lives in Park 33 in Goshen. She chose to stay anonymous with her comments but said she did not understand why she was given an eviction notice Monday morning.’

    “It was just a little disheartening, I guess, for the most part,” the tenant said. “I’m not months behind on my rent. It’s late by three weeks as of today. I made the decision to pay my other bills and make sure everything else was taken care of because what good is an apartment if I don’t have my lights turned on?”

    ‘Clerk Anderson said county records did not show any eviction notice filing for the anonymous tenant.’

    ‘The tenant said she and her family fell three weeks behind on their rent because her husband was forced to stay home from work for a period of time due to the coronavirus. She said she has every intention of paying the rent and late fees she owes. She just needs more time.’

    ‘The tenant did say regardless of the money situation when the pandemic dangers subside, she still plans to find somewhere else to live.’

    “I would say it’s probably a good time for my family to maybe start looking elsewhere and to explore other options because it’s just not something that I feel like morally and ethically that I should be a part of,” the tenant said.’

    https://www.abc57.com/news/property-owners-can-still-file-eviction-notices-court-proceedings-delayed

    ‘I made the decision to pay my other bills and make sure everything else was taken care of because what good is an apartment if I don’t have my lights turned on’

    1. This question is one of those zen, philosophical things, like they ask in college. What’s the meaning of life? Why would I throw money away on rent if I ain’t got lights? Now go live in your dark car and contemplate, grass-hopper.

    2. I wonder how many landlords will allow non paying tenants to stay put, in the hope that once things get better that the payments will resume?

      1. Who’$ gonna get$ to be winner$ in $6+ Trillion$ + “UNLIMITED” … US Taxpayer$ obligation$ National Ferderal.Re$erve lotto di$tribution $weep$take$?

        👾 ( munch,munch, munch ..
        .)

        Macy’$ to furlough majority of its 130,000 worker$

        AP News / By ANNE D’INNOCENZIO / an hour ago

        NEW YORK (AP) — Macy’s says it will stop paying tens of thousands of employees who were thrown out of work when the chain closed its stores in response to collapsing sales during the pandemic.

        The majority of its 130,000, including stock people and sales clerks, will still collect health benefits but the company said that it is transitioning to an “absolute minimum workforce” needed to maintain basic operations. Macy’s has lost the bulk of its sales due to the temporarily closing of its stores starting March 18.

        The move is perhaps the most dramatic sign that even big name retailers are seeing their business evaporate and that the $2 trillion rescue package passed by Congress last week may come too late to help out retailers. Nordstrom said last week it was furloughing a portion of its corporate staff.

        More than 190,000 stores, including J.C. Penney and Neiman Marcus, have temporarily closed, accounting for nearly 50% of the U.S. retail square footage, according to Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail.

        When announcing the temporary closures, most retailers said they would keep paying their workers. But that has now become increasingly untenable as the coronavirus rapidly spreads and forces people to stay cooped up in their homes.

        The big question is how much of these furloughs will lead to permanent layoffs.

        Macy’s said that there won’t be as many furloughs in its online operations, which continue to operate.

        “Macy’s entered this crisis in a weak position and it is now one the retailers most affected by the decline in sales as consumer stay home,” Saunders said. “Given the scale of the collapse and the high cost base of Macy’s operations, furloughing staff has become inevitable as the shutdown of the consumer economy drags on.”

        Macy’s said those who are enrolled in health benefits will continue to receive coverage with the company covering 100% of the premium.

        “We expect to bring colleagues back on a staggered basis as business resumes,” the company said.

        1. Twelve days. It’s been TWELVE DAYS, and these companies can’t pay their workers. They don’t even have 30 days of cash on hand? It’s seems as if the entire world is operating just-in-time. Meanwhile, I’m sitting here with 5 months worth of food and living expenses. I feel like such a chump.

          1. I suspect some of those companies CAN pay for a while more. But if things aren’t immediately going back to full bubble mode (and who really believes that at this point?) they would rather hang onto that money to divvy up among the top People Who Matter within the company.

          2. But if things aren’t immediately going back to full bubble mode

            I wouldn’t be surprised if the big chains (Macy’s, Kohl’s, JCP, etc.) and a lot of smaller players are are already planning on closing many stores for good.

            Our local outdoor mall never fully recovered from the previous crash and still has vacant space. If Macy’s were to close the store there it would be major blow to the mall, which was foreclosed some years ago.

          3. 5 months? LOLZ.

            I’m sitting here with *years* of living expenses.

            REALTOR, let’s review my personal finances:

            I have never purchased a vehicle for more than $12,000.
            I rent an affordable unit in a well maintained building that is less space than I may want, but enough space I actually need.
            I buy almost all of my meat out of the manager’s special bin.
            The majority of my recreation activity costs only the gas to get there.
            I pick up quarters, dimes, nickels on the sidewalk.
            Before all surfaces became suspect of contagion, I would even scoop up the abandoned pennies out of the change cup from previous customers at self-checkouts.
            No subscription television service.
            No subscription news (paper or online) and no subscription apps.
            Most of the furniture in Casa 401 is from my parents or other family.
            The library may be closed now, but most of my books come from there for free.
            All of my current and future expenses are tracked, to the penny.

            And by avoiding REALTOR, I have achieved the level of financial freedom that to most debt slaves is simply incalculable.

          4. If you have years of living expenses, then, by all means, pre-pay your rent for those years. And make sure you save up enough to pay that rent for those 25 years when you’re old and rickety and can no longer sling wires around.

          5. I’m sitting here with *years* of living expenses.

            Over a decades worth, which mostly means I don’t need much.

            pre-pay your rent for those years

            I prepaid my mortgage, does that make you feel better?

          6. when you’re old and rickety and can no longer sling wires around

            I think the idea is that he’ll have enough saved to pay rent for the rest of his life, even if it means he’ll have to retire in some oil city. From what he has described, he lives a very frugal and low cost lifestyle and saves every penny he can. If you are happy living like that, you don’t need to save as much as someone who wants luxury cars and a golf course home when they retire.

          7. “pay that rent for those 25 years when you’re old and rickety”

            Speak for yourself, REALTOR.

            This is the HBB, not some Reddit hugbox safespace or (barf) the city-data forums.

          8. “I think the idea is that he’ll have enough saved to pay rent for the rest of his life,”

            Which is fine, but I’m getting to the same goal, just by a different route. Why does he get a pass while I am mocked and scorned relentlessly for years on end?

          10. I think the idea is that he’ll have enough saved to pay rent for the rest of his life

            What if we go through a period of high inflation?

          11. while I am mocked

            Numerous reasons.

            For one thing nobody in their right mind would consider paying RENT decades in advance. As a renter, you don’t have to and it’s all downsides if you do.

            I believe that you don’t even remember the things you said to us relentlessly in 2012 when you went nutters. We love you, but you are not the poster gal for nothin.

          12. “What if we go through a period of high inflation?”

            When are you expecting this tripling and quadrupling of wages?

          13. Why does he get a pass while I am mocked and scorned relentlessly for years on end?

            Because this is the HBB.

          15. I’d be interested in what I said back in 2012 when I went nutters. I pretty sure I never said that buying a house would make me rich, I know that. I haven’t really changed my story.
            Blue, when I’m your age, I intend to prepay my mortgage too.

        2. “…The big question is how much of these furloughs will lead to permanent layoffs…”

          Wouldn’t be surprised one iota if one of those big chains either merges with someone else or goes belly up completely.

          If the corona virus never happened, then the likes of Amazon would of finished them off anyway.

      2. I’m hoping for some favorable negotiations when I renew my lease in May, because REALTOR, I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

        1. My landlord did right by me for the past several years when he could’ve jacked up the rent to “fair market value” (and priced me out). He didn’t, valuing a stable, reliable longterm renter. So if the housing market and rents crater, I’m not going to take advantage of the situation and drive a hard bargain on the rent. He gave me a fair deal when he didn’t have to; I’m going to do the same if the shoe is on the other foot.

          1. “drive a hard bargain”

            That’s not what I’m talking about. As I’ve posted previously I rent from a small company that manages a dozen buildings. If they are having cash flow problems, I am able to write a single check to prepay for a year’s lease renewal. This is where I would be looking to negotiate.

        2. If they are having cash flow problems, I am able to write a single check to prepay for a year’s lease renewal. This is where I would be looking to negotiate.

          I would steer clear of writing a check for one year’s worth of rent to anybody having financial problems. JMHO.

          2. I concur with Headless Bankers. The current owner could sell the property and your prepaid rent could be overlooked or lost in the transfer.

            Another scenario – suppose a fire or tornado struck the property and left your unit uninhabitable? It’s really hard to get a refund in an environment like those two examples where the landlord may be hit with multiple units in need of repair.

            If I were in your shoes, I’d pay on the regular month by month schedule, maybe a day or two early to stand out.

            Now go wash your hands.

          3. And steer clear of committing 15 or 30 years of labor on a rapidly depreciating asset when prices are falling….. you know what that famous economist said about that.

            Rent it for half the monthly cost.

            San Ramon, CA Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Bay Area Rental Rates Plummet

            https://www.zillow.com/san-ramon-ca-94582/home-values/

            *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

            As a noted economist stated, “If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.”

      3. I just got a notice from Avalon ( no grief please) saying they will waive the $38 convenience fee for paying rent by credit card through June 1.
        I might do this to get some frequent flyer miles or that sick 1.5% cash back.

    1. These states have implemented stay-at-home orders. Here’s what that means for you
      By Alicia Lee, CNN
      Updated 11:43 AM ET, Mon March 30, 2020
      California governor orders residents to stay at home

      (CNN) As the US grapples with the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus that has the health care system at a tipping point, a growing number of states are ordering their residents to stay at home.

      Despite the White House advising all Americans to practice social distancing, the number of coronavirus cases in the US continues to rise. So, governors across the nation are taking stronger action by issuing stay-at-home orders in their states.

      By March 30, at least 27 states will have those orders in effect. Those states contain more than 225 million people — more than two-thirds of the country’s population.
      These are the states that have implemented stay-at-home orders. CNN will update the list as more come in.
      …

        1. When commerce opens up again, if people don’t spend like drunken sailors it might spell depression.

          Come on spend for your Country. Oh, the credit cards were already maxed out.

          Everytime I do the numbers I don’t see the CDC predictions of up to 200 k deaths in USA.

          For me I take the number of potential high risk and senior population and what percent of death rate from that. I think it’s going to be 70 or 80 k at worse. If some of those meds work it will be brought down lower .

          1. “When commerce opens up again, if people don’t spend like drunken sailors it might spell depression.”

            I think people have realized just how much stuff they don’t need, and will never spend as much again.

            The Millennials have been in that situation their entire lives, because no $. But my peers may have figured it out too.

            Personally, I look forward to going back to a Chinese restaurant. Hopefully this time they will have Corona beer available.

          2. I look forward to going back to a Chinese restaurant.

            There’s a nicer one here in town. Going there for Christmas Eve dinner is a family tradition. Last year it was packed that evening.

          3. “When commerce opens up again, if people don’t spend like drunken sailors it might spell depression.”

            Why?

            A broke citizenry is a weak citizenry and weak nation.

        1. ‘Italy on Monday reported a drastic decrease in the number of new COVID-19 cases while announcing that 812 people died in the past 24 hours, raising the total to 11,591.’

          ‘The Civil Protection Agency said on Monday that the number of new cases of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which is also known as the coronavirus, has dropped to 4,050, which is the lowest number since March 17, hitting a total of 101,739 cases overall, according to state-run ANSA.’

          ‘More than 5,200 cases were reported Sunday, and 5,974 cases were reported Saturday. The agency also reported that nationwide, 14,620 people have recovered compared to 13,030 the day before. Health authorities on Monday noted that the more than 1,500 recoveries from the virus in 24 hours were the single-largest increase since the pandemic started.’

          https://www.theepochtimes.com/italy-records-daily-decrease-in-ccp-virus-cases-812-deaths-reported_3291207.html

          1. Does anyone actually believe any of these numbers?

            In my area we literally had a guy slip on a banana peel, hit his head on a rock, and die. For some reason he was tested for CoVid at the hospital, it came out positive, and so he is counted as a CoVid death.

            https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/2nd-coronavirus-patient-dies-in-lehigh-valley-he-was-61-and-from-warren-county.html

            What are the stories behind the rest of the statistics?

          2. While not being too callous, that sounds like good news. However, I hope Italy doesn’t let the populace out too early, because it could spark a new cluster.

  27. After the oligarchs and their central banker accomplices crash the global economy, they may find themselves less then welcome when they flee to their distant bolt-holes in places like New Zealand.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/world/europe/rich-coronavirus-second-homes.html

    ÎLE DE NOIRMOUTIER, France — On their peaceful island off France’s Atlantic Coast, some of the locals watched, with growing dread and rage, the images from Paris. As rumors began circulating about an imminent nationwide lockdown to stem the coronavirus outbreak, hordes of Parisians jammed into trains, an odd surfboard sometimes sticking out of the crowd.

    There was no doubt about their destination.

    “Irresponsible and selfish,” thought Dr. Cyrille Vartanian, one of the six physicians on Noirmoutier. With some time to spare — Paris was roughly five hours away — a local mayor, Noël Faucher, moved to block the only bridge to the mainland. But the national authorities said it would be illegal.

    “We were powerless because people were not confined to their principal residences,” Mr. Faucher recalled, describing the influx as “an invasion.”

    1. they may find themselves less then welcome when they flee to their distant bolt-holes in places like New Zealand

      Unlike the well to do Parisians who have a holiday bungalow or villa, the big boys have large compounds, with tall walls and probably protected by well armed guards. I recall that some of those compounds even have a private landing strip for the Gulfstream.

      1. “…and probably protected by well armed guards.”

        When things fall apart those well armed guards are going to help themselves to whatever their primordial instinct deems rightful. When the U.S. military’s JSOC rescues a ruling family during a coup the royal guards are typically their foes who expect all of the compound’s cars, money, vault combinations, paintings, etc., and the royalty escapes with the clothes they’re wearing.

  28. More unintended consequences from the bunglers at the Fed.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/mortgage-bankers-ask-sec-to-save-them-from-wave-of-margin-calls

    Mortgage bankers are sounding alarms that the Federal Reserve’s emergency purchases of bonds tied to home loans are unintentionally putting their industry at risk by triggering a flood of margin calls on hedges lenders have entered into to protect themselves from losses.

    In a Sunday letter, the Mortgage Bankers Association urged the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the nation’s main brokerage regulator to address the problem by telling securities firms not to escalate margin calls to “destabilizing levels.” The MBA, whose members underpin the housing market, asked the watchdogs to issue guidance directing brokers to work constructively with lenders.

    The rally in prices for mortgage-backed securities that’s been fueled by the Fed’s large-scale buying is “leading to broker-dealer margin calls on mortgage lenders’ hedge positions that are unsustainable for many such lenders,” the trade group wrote in its letter to SEC Chairman Jay Clayton and Financial Industry Regulatory Authority President Robert Cook.

    1. Mortgage bankers are sounding alarms that the Federal Reserve’s emergency purchases of bonds tied to home loans are unintentionally putting their industry at risk by triggering a flood of margin calls on hedges lenders have entered into to protect themselves from losses.

      Pay attention to what’s happening here: margin calls on hedges, most likely in the form of derivatives contracts purchased as insurance. Deutsche Bank alone is sitting on $43 trillion in derivatives, and there’s no telling how many off-balance-sheet derivatives other TBTF banks are exposed to. When the counterparties on those hedges can’t cover their wrong-way bets, it’s Game Over for the financial system.

      1. We’ve been hearing about “game over for the financial system” for over 10 years, yet they continue to pull more and more levers. Now it’s “Unlimited QE,” and the FED’s talking about their own digital currency.

    2. The MBA, whose members underpin the housing market

      Betting against your own product with borrowed money?

      Help!

      Priceless.

  29. The most vulnerable county was Horry County, SC, home to Myrtle Beach, with a median county home list price of $239,050 as of February, according to the most recent realtor.com data.

    Gosh, I sure hope no one vulners them.

  30. I’m having conversations with borrowers that I’ve never had to have before.’”

    Banker to borrowers: Wifey, you may need to go that extra mile if you want to keep a roof over your head.

    1. I remember the housewives having to enter the workforce back in the early 70s as the OPEC crisis gripped the economy. We’ve easily been in depression territory for the past 10-yrs were it not for the fed’s QE programs. This pandemic is probably the catalyst that will bring back garbage can fires and soup kitchens.

  31. MFA Financial, Inc. Price
    MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA-PB)
    NYSE – Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
    7.82-1.88 (-19.39%)

    52 Week Range 2.23 – 26.10

    MFA Financial, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage assets, including non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities; residential whole loans, including purchased performing loans, purchased credit impaired, and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights related assets. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would not be subject to federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MFA-PB?p=MFA-PB&.tsrc=fin-srch

    Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. (IMH)
    NYSE American
    2.0126 -1.3174 (-39.56%)

    Operating Cash Flow (ttm) -377.48M

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IMH/key-statistics?p=IMH

  32. I wonder if this is going to play out similarly to 2008? I saw prices in our neighborhood drop suddenly in the spring, after a year of people holding out for peak prices. And then they fell sharply by the end of the year.

    Or maybe this will be worse. At some point, though, there needs to be a reversal in the interest rates. So after 2 trillion dollars works its way into the system… maybe more than 2 trillion after the covid crisis is over… commodity prices go up, housing goes down because so many people are unemployed, and interest rates are forced to go up…. which of course would really break the system.

    1. “So after 2 trillion dollars works its way into the system…”

      That’s only going to buy the next 30-days. The $1,000 checks will not be spent on mortgage, rent or SUV payments; think grocery shopping. Many police departments have now cancelled responding to break-ins, so you better have a firearm at the ready if we have a break-down of social order.

      1. so you better have a firearm at the ready if we have a break-down of social order

        Suddenly, those inner city neighborhoods with the high walk scores are might lose their appeal. Plus I’m sure the Kickball leagues have been suspended.

        1. Smart renters don’t have these problems. I live in a secured building that can only be accessed with a key or being buzzed in by a resident and my windows are 40 feet above the ground. My designated parking space is visible from multiple units including my own, and a newly built duplex across the alley from my parking lot has motion detector LED lights that illuminate our entire parking lot.

          Living in a single family residence and parking your car in the driveway in Aurora, Commerce City, other sh*thole cities of the Front Range, is how you get your sh*t stolen.

          If my own neighborhood deteriorates to that point, that means there are larger, structural society problems, from which there may be no sustainable means of escape…

          1. Commerce City

            The last time I was in that place was years ago, when I went to see a Rapids game.

            Talk about a dump.

          2. other sh*thole cities of the Front Range, is how you get your sh*t stolen.

            Not if you drive a 20 year old car with the original cassette player in it….

          3. Not if you drive a 20 year old car with the original cassette player in it….

            And leave NOTHING inside, and the doors unlocked. A $3,500 car, max, is what people who live in such areas should drive.

      2. The $1,000 checks will not be spent on mortgage, rent or SUV payments; think grocery shopping.

        Let’s not forget that the maximum unemployment benefit has been doubled to $1000 a week. And from what I read the self employed are now eligible too. Of course, the immediate issue is that the rent is due on Wednesday and the UE checks won’t arrive for a while.

      3. When the Great Reset comes, a lot of libtards are going to realize, in the final moments of their earthly existence, why Les Deplorables refused to give up their “assault rifles” and high-capacity magazines.

    1. They’re already anticipating the next stim bill.

      This is going to be interesting. On one hand, we are swirling down a deflationary maelstrom, on the other hand, we are about to see spending that would put Weimar to shame. Who will win the tug of war?

      1. Fire and Ice
        By Robert Frost

        Some say the world will end in fire,
        Some say in ice.
        From what I’ve tasted of desire
        I hold with those who favor fire.
        But if it had to perish twice,
        I think I know enough of hate
        To say that for destruction ice
        Is also great
        And would suffice.

      2. Nothing will build anger and resentment among the masses like a rocketing stock market for the wealthy while they lose everything. I still maintain the stock market is almost completely unnecessary at this point.

        1. The Dow is down 21% year to date with a long way to fall.

          I don’t think we have to worry about a rocketing stock market any time soon.

  36. The Financial Times
    Oil
    Oil industry facing historic production shut down
    Crude oil in Texas was changing hands for as little as $7 a barrel on Monday
    © FT montage; Reuters
    Derek Brower and David Sheppard in London
    2 hours ago

    The world’s oil market once fixated on how Saudi-led Opec would tweak supply in small increments to boost prices. That concern suddenly feels quaint: the size of the global drop in consumption triggered by the coronavirus pandemic may be equivalent to the cartel’s entire output.

    Saudi Arabia has pledged to ramp up exports as part of its price war, but the collapse in demand will compel other producers both within and outside Opec’s 13 members, to leave lossmaking supplies in the ground.

    Demand is now down by as much as a quarter, or roughly 25m barrels a day. That is close to what Opec countries produce every day, or as if the US, Mexico and Canada had abruptly stopped consuming oil altogether. Storage facilities will soon be overwhelmed, say analysts, unless the industry can find a way to cut output at a scale never managed before.

    On Sunday evening the price of West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, slid below $20 a barrel to an 18-year low, about 70 per cent less than at the start of the year. Several forecasters see single-digit prices on the horizon as pipes and tanks fill up.

    “When you predict a surplus of more than 20m barrels a day we will hit infrastructure problems quickly,” said Mathios Rigas, head of Energean, a European energy producer. “With oil prices below $20, we’re going to see a lot of shutdowns.”
    …

    1. Saudi Arabia has pledged to ramp up exports as part of its price war

      Pumping more oil may buy them some time, but not much.

  37. ‘Do you just wait it out and hope for the remainder of the calendar year it will open up? Or do you settle for much less income and know at least you have something coming in?’ she said, noting that the house might rent for around $2,000 a month — a quarter of what it would make via Airbnb during peak months.

    And there’s the money quote, right there. Who gives a shit about the homeless problem in this country and the high cost of home ownership for first time buyers and middle income families when there are beaucoup short-term profits to be made?

    Airbnb and everyone who enables it can go rot in Hell.

  38. My employer is one of those who offer “unlimited” vacation time, which really means is that you don’t accrue any paid time off, so it’s use it or lose it. And no, it isn’t really unlimited.

    Of course, where do you go on vacation during a lock down? Sure, there are dirt cheap airfares, but anywhere you could go will be in a lock down as well, so nothing to do.

    I also wonder how many people will get on an airplane and travel once the all clear is given. Many will be broker than ever. Some might be paranoid that it isn’t really over yet. Airlines are anticipating this as many are permanently retiring older jets, especially ones with four engines. They aren’t expecting the business to fully resume.

    You might be able to take the family to Disney at a discount (still pricey); but how many will? Maybe this year’s vacation will be a staycation binge watching Netflix?

    1. “I also wonder how many people will get on an airplane and travel once the all clear is given.”

      It depends on how convinced air travelers are that COVID-19 is behind us.

      Aside from COVID-19 fears, the period immediatelyfollowing reopening might be relatively low-risk, due to the passage of time needed for germs living in the air system to die off.

      2. in a Colorado county that hasn’t closed itself off to non-locals

        I’ve heard that several of them have!

    3. By next summer I think we’ll have a vaccine (or the disease itself), so no coronavirus fears. But I think that the travel industry is going to take a permanent hit. All those retirees who were planning to travel the world (and brag about it) won’t be able to because their retirement will be decimated. And by the time the market recovers, they will won’t have the health to travel.

      I think GenX will come out of this very well to. Fifteen years from now, we’ll have a recovered market and good health.

      1. their retirement will be decimated. And by the time the market recovers, they will won’t have the health to travel.

        My retirement is actually growing during all that’s happening. I’m not even remotely impacted by the precious “market”.

        1. Can you offer any hints about what is growing at the moment (aside from the mysterious stock market rally)?

          1. The full canning jars in my pantry are looking pretty good at the moment!

            Not having a job per se meant rolling over the 401K into an IRA. I went very conservative and got some ladder bonds (FDIC insured). They are appreciating. My broker was furious at me for not buying stocks.

            My cash is looking marvelous at the gas pump. Not handy now but will have a big impact on the cabin cruiser expenses. Natural gas down makes a long hot bath cheaper too. Falling prices makes me much better off. Looking forward to cheaper steaks (fingers crossed)!

            My little own Ft. Knox is better insurance than ever.

            Sugar is falling, which means the good stuff will be cheaper to make.

            Falling prices are a blessing.

      2. All those retirees who were planning to travel the world (and brag about it) won’t…Another possibility is they won’t want to risk getting caught in a foreign country during a major health outbreak.

        Personally, I’ve never taken a cruise and at this point don’t have any desire to do so.

        1. I follow the stories of some round the world sail cruisers. Many of the have gotten sort of stranded.

          1. That comment just made me think of the “through hikers” on the Pacific Crest Trail, etc. I wonder if any of them are still slogging along?

  39. Behold the future of oil demand:

    The Financial Times
    Opinion Technology sector
    How Covid-19 is accelerating the shift from transport to teleport
    We are fast moving to a world where more economic activity takes place in digital form
    John Thornhill
    Members of the city commission to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vote during a meeting via Zoom video link in Lviv, Ukraine March 26, 2020. REUTERS/Roman Baluk
    Video conferencing company Zoom now has a market capitalisation of $42bn © Roman Baluk/Reuters
    John Thornhill
    8 hours ago

    The science fiction writer William Gibson has spent more time than most thinking about the future. In his earliest novels, published in the 1980s, he imagined that cyber space, a term he popularised, would develop as a separate realm, quite distinct from the real world.

    But when I interviewed him in a pre-crisis London this year about his latest novel Agency (set presciently enough in a post-apocalyptic world), he acknowledged that the future that had arrived was very different from his vision of three decades ago.

    Cyber space had not evolved in parallel with the real world, it was merging with it, he said. The supercomputers called smartphones that we carry around in our pockets are erasing the boundaries between the virtual and the physical. We may be the last generation to recognise any distinction between online and offline. “Our world is everting,” he said, as cyber space is opening out.

    The coronavirus crisis is only likely to accelerate that eversion. We will move even faster towards a weightless world, as the economist Diane Coyle has called it, where more economic activity takes place in digital form. As ever, investors have been anticipating the future. At $42bn, the market capitalisation of Zoom, the nine-year-old videoconferencing company currently used by thousands of businesses and schools, now exceeds that of any US airline. A form of teleportation, albeit not yet of the Star Trek kind, may be usurping transportation.
    …

    1. At $42bn, the market capitalisation of Zoom, the nine-year-old videoconferencing company currently used by thousands of businesses and schools, now exceeds that of any US airline

      But does Zoom make any money? Before the crisis, the big 4 US carriers had net profits in the billions.

      Also worth noting that there are competitors to Zoom: Skype, WebEx, Fuze and others. It’s not like what they do is magic.

      1. not like what they do is magic

        I participated in a craft guild demonstration via Zoom last week. Our meeting was cancelled and this was a workaround. The video was low definition, because the Zoom servers were swamped. They throttled. It was still fantastic, especially with closeup shots, and not driving save me three hours!

      2. But does Zoom make any money? Before the crisis, the big 4 US carriers had net profits in the billions.

        Also worth noting that there are competitors to Zoom: Skype, WebEx, Fuze and others. It’s not like what they do is magic.

        We were previously big Webex users and switched to Zoom last year. No big complaints about either one, they both do what they are supposed to do most of the time. But it did feel like Zoom was trying to do a 90s/20teens business model of intentionally underpricing to grow as quickly as possible and then presumably cash out later based on a spectacular growth story. Otherwise I don’t know why they should be able to do it any better/cheaper than their competitors that they are stealing market share from.

        1. But it did feel like Zoom was trying to do a 90s/20teens business model of intentionally underpricing to grow as quickly as possible and then presumably cash out later based on a spectacular growth story.

          Interesting point to revisit after things calm down.

  40. Vanity Fair asks in an article published today — Can The News Industry Survive Coronavirus?

    “As Americans are turning in large numbers to media outlets for coronavirus coverage, the industry itself is struggling to stay afloat. “The Coronavirus Is Killing Local News,” read an Atlantic headline last week, while BuzzFeed dubbed the pandemic a “media extinction event.” Alternative weeklies, local dailies, and digital-only newsrooms are struggling with the current advertising free fall, compounding the long-running issue of advertising revenue migrating to big tech platforms like Facebook and Google. BuzzFeed announced last week it would cut pay for its employees through May in an attempt to avoid layoffs, while newspaper giant Gannett, which owns papers such as USA Today, the Des Moines Register, and Arizona Republic, told staff Monday that furloughs and pay cuts were coming. The Tampa Bay Times is also furloughing some staff and announced Monday that it cut print production to only Sundays and Wednesdays. “These extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures,” said Tampa Bay Times chairman Paul Tash.

    There’s no cure-all to fix the news business, but Washington Post media columnist Margaret Sullivan has proposed directing stimulus money to help support it at this especially precarious moment. “News-industry experts have been predicting for years that a recession of severe economic downturn would deliver a death blow to these already troubled businesses”

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/can-the-news-industry-survive-coronavirus

    Hello, real journalists. Your business model is broken. Nobody wants to give you money anymore, please #LearnToCode and get a real job. Trump Derangement Syndrome won’t pay the bills…

  41. Regarding gold SELL prices, other than glut at that denomination, is there a reason that 2x the 1/2-ounce price would be below the 1-ounce price? The other denominations (with their respective multipliers) are above the 1-ounce price.

    1 ounce = $1784
    1/2 ounce = $870

    1. CBS News Uses Footage of “Worst Hit” Hospital in Italy While Describing New York Coronavirus Outbreak

      Published 30 March, 2020
      Paul Joseph Watson

      @bennyjohnson
      When talking about the Coronavirus outbreak in New York City, @CBSNews aired footage of a hospital in Italy.

      Especially in times of a crisis where people are already in a panic, the Media needs to give accurate information.

      Irresponsible.

      https://summit.news/2020/03/30/cbs-news-uses-footage-of-worst-hit-hospital-in-italy-while-describing-new-york-coronavirus-outbreak/

    2. Unfortunately I know 2 people who have passed away in the last week to ten days in the North East. The funeral services have been put on hold until this situation passes or gets to the point where they can have family members attend. I don’t know of any pleasant way to say the bodies will have to be kept in a morgue until it is presumed safe for the services to take place unless they decide to have them cremated.

      Now New York city has 470 deaths a day 365 days a year. That being said if you can’t have funeral services in NYC with a morgue capacity of 3,500 you’re going to have a morgue capacity problem after a bad week of seasonal flu deaths.

      FEMA sending 85 refrigerated trucks to New York City for COVID-19 bodies

      “New York City is so short on morgue space for coronavirus victims that FEMA is hauling in trailers to store all the bodies.”

      “The additional FEMA trucks could double the city’s current morgue capacity from 3,500 to 7,000.”

      1. long before Corona

        Indeed, as were the Wall Street financial sinkholes. Yet those who seek to harvest money from us will always blame after the fact externalities, so as to avoid mentioning our collective stupidity.

        1. First they create sinkholes by digging up the streets hunting for gold. Then they charge the public to fill in all the craters their mining operations left behind.

          What’s wrong with this picture?

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