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Overnight We Had No Negotiating Power Because Our Clients Need To Sell

A report from HousingWire. “HousingWire spoke to Todd Bitter, a loan originator servicing the Greater Phoenix-Scottsdale market. HousingWire: What are you doing within your lending business to adapt to the current market situation? Todd Bitter: For the last quite a few years, I haven’t done an FHA. I haven’t done a VA loan. I’ve never done a non-QM loan since 2008. My product lines are not blowing up around me like the non-QM people are losing their deals left and right. The low-score FHA people are losing their deals left and right because the FHA guidelines are going higher and higher.”

From Bloomberg. “Mortgage lenders are preparing for the biggest wave of delinquencies in history. If the plan to buy time works, they may avert an even worse crisis: Mass foreclosures and mortgage market mayhem. As many as 30% of Americans with home loans — about 15 million households — could stop paying if the U.S. economy remains closed through the summer or beyond, according to an estimate by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.”

“Laura Habberstad, a bar manager in Washington, D.C., got a reprieve from her lender but needs time to catch up. The coronavirus pandemic snatched away her income, as it has for millions, and replaced it with uncertainty. The restaurant and beer garden where she works was forced to shut down temporarily. She has no idea when she’ll get her job back. And how do you search for another hospitality job during a global pandemic? Now she’s living in Oregon with her mother, whose travel agency was forced to close.”

“‘I don’t know how I’m going to pay my mortgage and my condo dues and still be able to feed myself,’ Habberstad said. ‘I just hope that, once things open up again, we who are impacted by COVID-19 are given consideration and sufficient time to bring all payments current without penalty and in a manner that does not bring us even more financial hardship.'”

The Portland Mercury in Oregon. “In March, the city and county created a temporary safety net for those renters by announcing a moratorium on any evictions due to non-payment of rent related to COVID-19’s financial strain. But neither Portland nor Multnomah County have created new financial support for small-scale landlords who rely on rent payments to pay their bills. ‘I’m worried that, if renters are getting protections and banks are getting a federal bailout, we’re going to be ones left holding the bag,’ said one landlord who leases out a triplex in Southeast Portland.”

“This landlord purchased her rental property a few years ago as a place to eventually move her aging parents into. She decided to lease out the house to cover the mortgage costs. After paying mortgage, utility, and lawn care bills, the rent leaves her with around $100 in revenue each month. ‘I’m living paycheck to paycheck right now,’ said one landlord who rents out a single home to a couple in Northeast Portland (who also asked the Mercury to remain anonymous to protect their privacy). ‘If my tenants don’t pay rent, I can’t pay my mortgage.'”

From Roseville Today in California.”For a few days last week, there was no housing market and the value of house on the market declined. When this happened, we were negotiating with a buyer on one of our listings. Overnight we had no negotiating power and because our clients need to sell, we were forced to accept an offer which the week before we would have rejected.”

“Even now, with real estate, title and escrow companies being essential, values are going to continue to decline. There are fewer buyers in the market due to layoffs and general uncertainty. This may be balanced by fewer listing coming on the market but form what we understand lenders are scrambling to revise loan qualifications and valuations which will make it more difficult for buyers to get approved for loans and if they qualify, reduce the amount of the loan. Sellers will be forced to lower their asking price to find a qualified buyer.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Homebuilders don’t just fret about finding new customers during a pandemic. They also have to worry about the houses they’ve already sold. Home sales that builders made months ago may now be in doubt with record job layoffs and the spreading COVID-19 virus. ‘That’s a real concern from the builders I have spoken with,’ said Phil Crone, executive officer of the Dallas Builders Association. ‘Until some clarity comes on how long we are going to be grappling with the virus, I’d expect a few buyers to walk away, especially if they are not secure about their employment or financial situation.'”

“Such contract cancellations are common during economic downturns. They added thousands of new houses to the inventory back during the Great Recession when buyers walked away from purchase deals. Not only are buyers worried about their incomes and ability to pay for that new home, some of them may question what will happen to real estate values if there is a prolonged recession.”

“‘I’m trying to decide if we go through with the deal, try to renegotiate or just walk away from the deposit,’ one new homebuyer moving to North Texas said. Robert Dietz, chief economist with the National Association of Home Builders, said he expects to see data on the buyer walk away rate in the next 10 days or so. ‘I think we’re going to see cancellations increase,’ Dietz said.”

From Mansion Global on New York. “The coronavirus paralyzed the Manhattan real estate industry last week, with just two high-end homes entering into contract, according to the weekly Olshan report, which tracks contracts signed for homes asking $4 million or more. The last time the Olshan report recorded only two contracts signed in a week was Aug.17-23, 2009, during the market collapse.”

“The priciest apartment to find a buyer last week was a 6,166-square-foot duplex condo at the five-unit 397 West 12th St., asking $11.25 million—significantly reduced from its $18.5 million listing price when it hit the market in April 2017.”

“The No. 2 contract was a 3,007-square-foot four-bedroom at The Manhattan House, at 200 East 66th St., which was asking $5.25 million when it was listed in June (slightly less than the owners paid for it in January 2012, according to Ms. Olshan).”

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When It Busts, It Busts

A report from the Wall Street Journal. "Housing markets across the world, from the U.K.…

This Post Has 105 Comments

  1. ‘After paying mortgage, utility, and lawn care bills, the rent leaves her with around $100 in revenue each month’

    Observe, the necessity of making a meaningful profit.

    ‘I’m living paycheck to paycheck right now,’ said one landlord who rents out a single home to a couple in Northeast Portland (who also asked the Mercury to remain anonymous to protect their privacy). ‘If my tenants don’t pay rent, I can’t pay my mortgage’

    Well you had to roll with it.

    1. I will say it again, because it’s worth mentioning. I am now seeing a plethora of short term rentals on Airbnb which are cheaper monthly than long term rentals. It smells of desperation.

    2. She has a positive carry, albeit a small one. By the standards of the past 20 years, she’s a fiscal conservative.

      1. No, she didn’t include insurance and maintenance. Maintenance alone can be 5-10% a year. More if a lot of repairs have been deferred.

        1. $4/sqft per year depreciation… year after year after wallet emptying year is a bitch.

    3. This landlord purchased her rental property a few years ago as a place to eventually move her aging parents into… ‘I’m living paycheck to paycheck right now,

      Her plan was to force her parents to pay off her gambling loans! I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.

      1. I find it hard to believe that she bought a triplex just to house her parents. And I hope that triplex was three horizontal units instead of three tall skinny townhouses with no elevator.

        1. “I bought a shanty so my 3YO rug rat could go to college”

          It’s an excuse for speculating.

      2. This is not uncommon to find excuses during the boom to make purchases. The parents of my kids friend at school said they are renting a new townhouse that sold for $1.2 M… for around $3.5k per month. The new owner brought the place for his son to live in…. in 12 years!!! His son is still a little kid!!!!

        1. This was SOP during the housing bubble 2003-2007. Buy a house at kid’s college (preferably with I/O mortgage), kid lives in it for four years, sell the house, use the appreciation to pay off kid’s college loans. It’s a clever strategy … IF you time it right. And that bubble was so short-lived that you had to time it exactly right.

          Better hope that little kid actually wants to live in that house in 12 years, and not in another city.

  2. ‘which was asking $5.25 million when it was listed in June (slightly less than the owners paid for it in January 2012, according to Ms. Olshan)’

    Notice they didn’t mention what it sold for.

  3. ‘some of them may question what will happen to real estate values if there is a prolonged recession’

    Because they are gambling on shack Steve.

    ‘I’m trying to decide if we go through with the deal, try to renegotiate or just walk away from the deposit’

    Here we go again.

  4. ‘My product lines are not blowing up around me like the non-QM people are losing their deals left and right. The low-score FHA people are losing their deals left and right because the FHA guidelines are going higher and higher’

    Subprime is vanishing.

    1. BTW, it should be noted the FHA guidelines haven’t changed recently. It’s the secondary market that’s seized up and lenders are reacting with higher guidelines for this subprime junk. Higher than FHA’s own guidelines. It’s basically to run “low score FHA” borrowers off.

      1. “Might it’s $wollen corp$e again rise to the $urface?”

        Huh? …
        It’$ a deceptive illu$ion, corpse’$ i$ right there behind the “Private Equitie$” facade$ of wanker.non.banker$ loan$, plain.a$.day.
        (ignore the real.e$tate $ign twirler$)

    3. It’s a shame that it took 11 years since the supposed end of the last crisis for subprime to finally vanish. As a natural consequence of the unnatural delay, we now have to live through yet another subprime crisis.

  5. Los Alamitos, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Orange County Housing Market Turns Toxic On Skyrocketing Mortgage Defaults And Collapsing Demand

    https://www.zillow.com/los-alamitos-ca/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As an noted economist said, “With 25 million excess, empty and defaulted houses out there, there is no need to build more.”

  6. So many homes coming online in Boise. A of flippers and a lot with no pictures and others are vacant … I didn’t realize there were so many empty houses here.

    1. Woe$er, & woe$er …

      (For a $tate that deplore$ “Big.Gubermint” they $ure might seem thankful$ now for “Big.Gubermint$.Di$trubution.monie$” $hare of the Federal $6+ Trillion$ of 👾.fund$)

      CORONAVIRU$

      Idaho unemployment claim$ jump 143% due to coronaviru$. One-third were from Boi$e area

      Idaho Statesman / BY NICOLE FOY APRIL 02, 2020

      The number of Idahoans filing for unemployment because of coronavirus jumped for the second week in a row — up an additional 143% this week alone. More than one-third of all unemployment claims filed this week came from the Boise area.

      Overall, 46,526 people have filed initial unemployment claims since Idaho Gov. Brad Little declared a state of emergency on March 15, the Idaho Department of Labor announced in a press release Thursday. A record 32,941 people filed claims from March 22-28, which was also twice as many claims as the week before.

      Young people under the age of 25 and women represented a “disproportionate share” of Idaho workers affected by COVD-19 layoffs, according to an Idaho Department of Labor analysis. About half of the people who filed unemployment claims in Ada and Canyon counties last week were younger than 35.

      “Women made up almost 60% of people filing initial claims,” the release stated. “This statistic flipped from two weeks earlier when men represented 67% of initial claims.”

      Ada, Kootenai and Canyon counties had the highest number of unemployment claims last week, according to Idaho Department of Labor data. More than 7,000 people filed for unemployment in Ada County — half of whom work in the food service, health care and retail industries.

      The highest percentage of new unemployment claims came from Idaho industries like mining, manufacturing, construction and other services. Unemployment claims from the mining sector, in particular, jumped 767% over the last week, while construction industry claims increased 256%.

      HOW TO APPLY FOR UNEMPLOYMENT IN IDAHO
      The Idaho Department of Labor is urging people with questions about filing claims not to call the department. Unprecedented levels of claims are creating long wait times, department staff said, and most callers will find a busy signal.

      1. Just saw a lawyer ad saying if you lose your job due to covid and pay child support or alimony let us get you an adjustment (or words to that effect).

  8. Illusion$, Delusion$ … Rece$$ion Depre$$ion … the xaoh.deeth.👾.munche$.&.munche$.$tealthly.progre$$ively.uncea$ingly.invi$ibly towards its ultimate de$tiny!

    Market$:

    Wall $treet’s Bulli$h ‘Illu$ion’ $hattered by Bad-New$ On$laught

    Bloomberg / By Justina Lee
    April 1, 2020

    Dividend$ and buyback$ di$appear; companie$ abandon outlook$

    Global factory activity tank$ as bad economic data $tacks up.

    Companies prepping to cut billions in shareholder payouts. Earnings downgrades hovering near the worst on record. High-frequency labor and manufacturing data fla$hing the fa$test economic $hock in decade$.

    For any money manager betting the market has more or less discounted the unfolding coronavirus crisis and its stimulative offset, the reality checks are coming thick and fast. Small wonder stocks are back in sell-off mode just days after the best week for the S&P 500 since 2009.

    As the death toll continues to climb across the U.S. and Europe, corporate boardrooms are facing pressure without precedent. HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc have announced a halt to dividends and share buybacks, while German car-parts giant Continental AG abandoned its outlook altogether. Factory gauges Wednesday showed global manufacturing activity collapsing.

    With some of the world’s largest economies prolonging lockdowns, there’s set to be a deluge of data chronicling a pronounced cra$h in con$umption and inve$tment.

    A$ the corporate drag becomes evident, there’s a chance investors will take even more money out of risk assets, according to Alastair Pinder at HSBC Securities. Institutional active funds and passive products may see more redemptions. The new U.S. rule allowing individuals to withdraw up to $100,000 from their retirement plans without a penalty could fuel another $50 billion of outflows

  10. Maybee they should offer U$ Taxpayer$ a: “Thanks.for.yer.fanta$yland.financial.$upport!” … Di$count ticket$

    ENTERTAINMENT:

    Di$ney to furlough non-union employees at theme park$, waives annual pa$$ fee$.

    CNBC / By Darah Whitten / PUBLISHED THU, APR 2 2020

    Disney’$ Park$, Experience$ and Product% is a ma$$ive piece of the company’s busine$$. Last year, the $egment accounted for 37% of the company’s $69.6 billion$ in total revenue$.

    Employees will also be eligible for $600 per week in federal compen$ation through the $2 trillion$ economic $timulus bill, as well as $tate unemployment in$urance, according to Disney.

  11. Number of for-sale houses hitting the market down a bit

    BUT number of houses listed for sale up 20% from two week earlier
    Number of houses going under contract to buyers down 14%

    Recent sales haven’t been hit by Corona because they were already in escrow when Corona hit

    BUT in next few weeks we’ll see Phoenix sales fall as the pre-Corona escrows move through the pipeline and we start to see he impact of fewer houses going under contract to buyers.

    https://arizonarealestatenotebook.com/quick-video-report-corona-crisis-impact-on-phoenix-real-estate-market/

  12. not long after the housing bubble burst in 2008, my husband and I looked at homes in a not so special area in Northern California. The realtor who showed us homes, said that even then -just following the bubble burst– many people did not have 20% savings to put down. I think at that time, many were still paying around 6 or 7 percent down, and even that downpayment was financed in some way. And for the past couple years Wells Fargo was advertising only 3 1/2 percent down payment for homes under -I think- $400,000. I just saw this article, pointing out that so many buyers of the past few years have low down payments …. and if they have no job, what do they lose if they don’t pay? As they say, if you owe the bank $20, it’s your problem. If you own the bank, $400,000, it’s the bank’s problem. https://www.aei.org/economics/could-the-cares-act-unintentionally-accelerate-house-price-declines/

    I’ve been thinking of what could gain and what could lose in the coming years, and I’m wondering if, after this covid crisis is over, if the health care industry isn’t going to get smashed. On top of health insurance becoming more and more unaffordable for many people over the year … now I imagine that many hospitals, health insurance companies could be financially stressed. I have observed that during the tech bubble, so many people became part time day traders, made money in tech in some way, or were learning HTML and trying to charge thousands for basic HTML website work. Then during the housing bubble, so many people that I met were either connected to building, home improvement, or real estate. Like seriously, every other person seemed to be a mortgage broker or realtor. Since the housing bust, it seems like the human medicine field has been thriving. (Animal medicine, I think not so much.)

  13. Although he looks fine in the video he talks about having had high fever, body aches, shivering, seeing his father and hallucinations which tells me everyone else has to go to the emergency room to get hydroxychloroquine and a z pack that was touted by President Trump but Chris Cuomo gets it from his personal doctor.

    Coronavirus-stricken Chris Cuomo says he chipped a tooth while shivering

    By Kenneth Garger
    April 1, 2020

    “I’ve never had anything like it,” Cuomo, the younger brother of New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, said as he broadcast from the basement of his home.

    “I never experienced any kind of fever like what I have going on all the time, and the body aches, and the tremors and the concern about not being able to do anything about it.”

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/chris-cuomo-chips-tooth-from-severe-coronavirus-symptoms/

    2. Snowflake or not, I’m glad he’s going on TV as well as he can. As Ben said, how many people do we know that have it? Even a million cases in the US is only 1 in 320 or so. I don’t know 320 people, or even 160 people. So all I get is blind stories that “somebody” is overwhelming emergency rooms. It’s like reading it in a book – you don’t really believe it’s happening. If Chris Cuomo wants to provide a visual to make is seem more real, so be it.

    3. Coming off of Heroin is tough Chris. Chipped a tooth while falling over another junky or getting smacked by your dealer maybe….

    1. I do not understand how somebody could do that to themselves, But then again I don’t understand a lot of addictions and compulsions.

      1. 24 years old and on 12 medications, blood clots, yet still can drive.
        and she is just average for the show some are over 900 lbs

    3. Heh, I’m trying to see this as an opportunity. I inventoried my food and calculated how long it would last based on “need-sized” portions. My goal is to emerge from quarantine 10 pounds lighter and possibly a little stronger. If I follow the calculated plan I might be able to do it.

    4. A friend recently went to the grocery store. He said that paper products are wiped out. Cereal is low. All pasta is wiped out, including ramen. Meat still available, frozen veg still available, canned meat still available, cold cuts still available.

      People are buying cheap carbs (cereal is expensive carbs). Instead, they should be buying meat and veg, but those are more expensive.

  15. 🕛⚕😷👾☠📰 … Trumpy: “Doc, you’re fired! … Jared, get in here now!”

    Fauci: ‘I don’t understand why’ every state hasn’t issued stay-at-home orders

    By Paul LeBlanc, CNN, Thu April 02, 2020

    I don’t understand why that’s not happening,” Dr. Anthony Fauci during CNN’s coronaviru$ town hall.

    More than 30 states and the District of Columbia have ordered their residents to stay at home. Fauci said governors that have held out thus far “really should” reconsider with the number of US cases passing 236,000 on Thursday and continuing to climb.

    1. “Doc, you’re fired! … Jared, get in here now!”

      Leap from the frying pan into the fire!

  16. No worrie$, ab$olutely nothing will go wrong$. It’$ a fine oil.machine they got$ running, perfect!

    CORONAVIRU$:

    Bank$ warn of ‘utter chao$’ in new $mall busine$% lending program$

    The program is supposed to begin at midnight, but banks say there is so little guidance from the Trump administration that they may not be able to lend.

    CNBC / April 2, 2020
    By Stephanie Ruhle, Ben Popken and Michael Cappetta

    Million$ of $mall busine$$es are anxiously awaiting their $lices of a $350 billion relief program that forms part of the government’$ $2 trillion$ economic %upport package.
    However, with just hours to go before launch, it wasn’t until Thursday night that banks received their 31 pages of guidance from Treasury on how to lend the money — and some haven’t even decided whether they can participate on the opening day.

    In a strongly worded statement, one of the nation’s biggest lenders said the much-touted relief program for small business owners wasn’t ready for prime time.

    The vacuum in guidance has left banking executives scrambling to cobble together a massive small business assistance program from scratch.

    The application period for the Paycheck Protection Program administered by the SBA starts at midnight Thursday. The program promises relief for an estimated 30 million small businesses, providing eight weeks of cash flow and 100 percent federally guaranteed loans that could be completely forgiven if they use them to keep their workers employed. The money can also be used to pay rent, utilities and mortgage interest, with no collateral required.

    It’s utter chaos,” said James Brower, a partner at Marks Paneth, a New York City-based accounting firm. “Business owners are clamoring for this money. They want to pay their people. They want to pay their landlord. There’s this lifeline that’s been dropped, but they keep pulling the rope back up to the helicopter.

    “We’re now hearing from bankers that they may not want to get into the program because the law doesn’t have a whole lot of specifics in it, yet the phone lines are jammed with business owners begging for loan applications,” Brower said. Banks “don’t know what the rules are, and they’re afraid if they lend money to someone they shouldn’t have, they’ll be required to pay it back to the government.”

    The rules ask for small businesses to upload their payroll statements, but with no uniform way to report them, some of the statements will have to be eyeballed individually. Then there are concerns about verifying the information and the potential for fraud or just simple mistakes.

  17. Putain loves Italy & Italian’$, iffin’s he could, he would readily swap Crimea for it!

    Europe:

    Coronaviru$: What does ‘from Ru$$ia with love’ really mean?

    By BBC News / Russian, Moscow

    Russia’s latest gesture in the coronavirus crisis came in the form of medical supplies arriving in New York – part of an operation dubbed “from Russia with love” by the Kremlin.

    In late March a similar cargo was flown to Italy – the worst-hit country in the crisis – along with 100 Russian military medics.

    Italian newspaper La Stampa said, according to its sources, the aid had little practical value and was more like a geopolitical opportunity for Mr Putin. It went so far as to brand 80% of the delivery “usele$$”.

    Another claim in Russian state media was about widespread singing of the Russian national anthem in Italy.

    Interestingly, Chinese media had earlier faked Italian balcony-singing of the Chinese anthem. An Italian media outlet debunked the video – one of many showing Italians crowding on their balconies in the lockdown.

    Russian state media used two videos of a recording of the Russian anthem being played (not sung). In one instance, it was linked to Italian trade union UGL.

    The anthem seems to blast from a building housing the neo-fascist CasaPound organisation in Rome. The UGL trade union is historically linked to CasaPound, and the head of UGL has visited Russia several times.

    Another video was filmed from inside a flat, with the Russian anthem heard in the background. It was initially posted by Alena Sivkova, head of Daily Storm, a Russian news website.

    The video was widely used by Russian news channels and online media such as RenTV, Izvestia, TV Tsentr and Russia-1.

    BBC Russian found out that the video was filmed by one of the journalist’s relatives, who lives in Italy and is married to an Italian. He apparently played a recording of the anthem.

    Ilya Shepelin runs a project called Fake News on Russia’s opposition TV Rain channel. For him, the manipulation of fact and fiction in this instance is a perfect example of hybrid fake news. When fact and fiction are so tightly intertwined they can hardly be separated, he says.

    Yet Russian authorities themselves are now warning about fake news.

    Under new emergency laws, anyone spreading false information about the coronavirus crisis in Russia can face up to five years in prison.

    “Long.live.thee.Czar.Putain!”

    2. Earning$! … thee.truth, thee.whole.truth$, nothing.but$.thee.truth$, so help you good.gawd.

      “You can’t handle thee.truth!”… (Angry Tea.party $poke$per$on)

  19. The world wide confirmed COVID-19 case count just topped 1 million, with about 1 in 4 cases in the U.S.

    1. Live Updates
      Coronavirus live updates: Cases top 1 million globally
      By Joshua Berlinger, Ben Westcott and Adam Renton, CNN
      Updated 3:09 a.m. ET, April 3, 2020
      What you need to know
      – Global cases top 1 million: The novel coronavirus has infected more than 1,016,000 people and killed over 53,000 worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University.
      – Worst-hit country: The US has reported more than 245,500 cases, with over 6,000 deaths. Top infectious diseases expert Dr. Anthony Fauci has called for a federally mandated stay-at-home order.
      – Caution in China: Officials in Wuhan, ground zero for the pandemic, say residents should only go outside when necessary as the city begins to open up following two months of lockdown.
      4 min ago
      The coronavirus death toll in the United States has passed 6,000
      From CNN’s Joe Sutton

      At least 245,559 cases of Covid-19 have been reported in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University.

      Infections have been reported in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and other US territories.

      A total of 6,057 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported in the country as of early Friday morning on the East Coast. Wyoming is the only state not reporting a death from coronavirus.
      …

      1. I don’t know what it means, but as the global confirmed case count climbs, so is the death rate out of confirmed cases:

        53,000/1,000,016 = 5.3%

          1. Statistics isn’t a great substitute for baseball, though the two spheres are somewhat complementary, and you can find folks on both sides who complain of boredom.

    2. Sheep World

      CBS just said COVID-19 in the U.S. had climbed to 6000 “unimaginable deaths” while in 2009 we had 18,000 H1N1 unmentioned deaths .

      Stay in your homes!

      Rat out your neighbors.

      The Coronavirus information Blitzkrieg has been successful and the 10,000,000 newly unemployed are clamoring for government help.

      Do not become hopeful when you see Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin curing people time and again because there is no hope except to do as you are told.

      Pay no attention to those soldiers they are here to help and will only make arrests if they have to.

      ‘In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act’

      George Orwell.

      2. If it weren’t for quarantine measures, we’d be well over 18k by now. Probably still will be in just another week or two…

        In what world is that “sheep”?

        1. “If it weren’t for quarantine measures, we’d be well over 18k by now.”

          I called this cr@p a couple of weeks ago on this blog. If we hadn’t shut everything down our losses would have been blah-blah-blah blah-blah-blah.

          The 240,000 from Trump above is down from a 2 million prediction by somebody Professor Bear posted a couple of weeks ago.

          1. 18k…240,000…a 2 million prediction

            People don’t know, but they can’t keep their mouth shut.

          2. All we can do is look at the current trend, and it’s not good at this point. Once it levels off we’ll have an idea.

  20. Is the U.S. about to go full Chinese?

    The Financial Times
    Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
    Coronavirus
    Lifesaver or false protection: do face masks stop coronavirus?
    Debate shifts in Europe and US over use of protective gear long employed in Asia
    © FT montage; Graham Parrish
    Michael Peel in Brussels, Kana Inagaki in Tokyo and Kathrin Hille in Taipei 4 hours ago

    European countries have begun to embrace the mass public use of face masks to combat coronavirus in a growing trend that mimics longstanding anti-pandemic measures in parts of Asia.

    Austria this week followed Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bosnia-Herzegovina by saying it would be compulsory for people to wear the protective gear outside the home, even though the World Health Organisation does not recommend such a move.

    In a sign that the debate is shifting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US this week said it is was reconsidering whether to recommend face gear to the general public, rather than only those caring for a sick person.

    The FT looks at the scientific, cultural and behavioural factors behind the shift in attitudes towards masks, as the pandemic continues to sweep the globe.
    Can masks halt coronavirus spread?
    Whether masks help reduce the risk of a person inhaling the virus is open to doubt © AFP via Getty Images

    Most experts agree that wearing a face mask can stop some virus-laden watery droplets that are thought to be a main coronavirus vector and are expelled into the air when a person coughs, sneezes or just breathes out. More contentious is whether they help reduce the risk of a person becoming infected by inhaling the virus through their nose or ingesting via the mouth.

    A big problem in resolving the debate conclusively has been the lack of proper clinical trials on the impact of masks on viral infection rates. Such tests are difficult to conduct because of the large number of variables, according to Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at Britain’s University of East Anglia.

    He said less rigorous studies of flu did suggest some benefits to mask wearers. These are hard to quantify but they could include that wearing a mask prevents you from touching your mouth or nose directly and infecting yourself with viruses picked up from contaminated surfaces.
    Diagram showing mask types compared

    “My own view is that the balance of evidence is pointing towards some protective effect,” said Prof Hunter. “You have to be careful about poor quality evidence. But it is not no evidence.”

    Yet some authorities are holding firm to recommendations for the public not to use them.
    …

    1. “You have to be careful about poor quality evidence”

      OK, let’s do a quickie cost-benefit analysis.
      Benefit of wearing mask: “poor quality evidence of protective effect.”
      Cost (economic or medical) of wearing a cheap rag that you already have: zero.

      Poor quality evidence wins.

      1. “Cost (economic or medical) of wearing a cheap rag that you already have: zero.”

        Some people would be embarrassed to wear a cheap rag over their face, knowing they were just doing it to please their hysterical neighbors. That’s a cost.

        1. My weekly trips to costco to horde TP / get groceries for my family have been very telling to me. When this flu thing started i saw about 1/10 people with masks on and primarily asians (das raysis?). Yesterday i would say 1/2 or more of the people had masks or make shift cloth wraps. I even saw one person in a full hazmat suit on. If someone is this paranoid / cautious, why even bother go out and shop. Just have the goods delivered to your residence and quarantine the non perishables and disinfect the rest. During this whole time the only protection the workers at costco had on were gloves. Mabye next week ill wear gloves.

          1. Oh and the social distancing of 6’ was being enforced as well as a new rule of 2 people per membership. Took a little longer to get inside because of restrictions on amount of hoarders aloud inside at one time. Other than that it was shopping as usual and no shortage of anything except tp, wipes, and canned goods which we have plenty of.

          2. ‘the only protection the workers at costco had on were gloves’

            Have you seen the shocking infection rates for Costo workers? Neither have I.

          3. Well Ben, that’s the problem with the prevention industry. You never really know if your activities are actually preventing something, or if everything would have been fine anyway and you’re just wasting time and resources.

          4. When does government not over-react to these things? If it’s a flood or too many mosquitoes. They always cover their own ass first. When I was a kid the city would drive around spewing plumes of mosquito killing gas on summer evenings. Now there are no more fireflies, when there used to be clouds of them at night.

          7. Well, again, that’s part of being in the prevention industry, which is a LOT of what government does. People tend to take the position that prevention isn’t really necessary, and that preventative measures are an overreaction. That’s part of why they hate government workers so much — all that prevention could be a waste. And there’s still no good way to know if all the prevention is worth it.

          8. From wikipedia (Spanish Flu):

            To maintain morale, World War I censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States.

            That doesn’t sound like being proactive to me. Sure, once the cow got out of the barn they couldn’t hide it anymore and the quarantines began, far too late.

          9. “If someone is this paranoid / cautious, why even bother go out and shop. Just have the goods delivered to your residence and quarantine the non perishables and disinfect the rest.”

            COVID-19 germs can travel on delivery trucks, too.

          10. “I suppose they could just let it run its course, like they did in 1918.”

            I suppose they could just let it run its course, like they did in 2009.

            Although they did have enough masks and respirators in 2009.

            National Stockpile of N95 Masks Was Depleted Under Obama and Not Replenished

            March 25, 2020

            by Debra Heine

            The shortage of N95 respirator masks in America today is the result of the Obama-Biden Administration’s failure to replenish the Strategic National Stockpile after the H1N1 swine flu pandemic depleted supplies, according to multiple reports.

            The H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009 led to 274,304 hospitalizations, 12,469 deaths, and a severe shortage of masks of N95 respirator masks in the United States.

            According to Bloomberg News, the national stockpile—which is governed by the Health and Human Services Department—”distributed about three-quarters of its inventory and didn’t build back the supply.”

            The stockpile was depleted of about 100 million masks during the swine flu epidemic, Charles Johnson, president of the International Safety Equipment Assn. told the LA Times.

            Johnson’s association and a federally sponsored task force both recommended to the Obama administration that the stockpile be replenished, according to the Times.

            Johnson said that advice was never heeded. “Our association is unaware of any major effort to restore the stockpile to cover that drawdown,” he said.

            https://tennesseestar.com/2020/03/25/national-stockpile-of-n95-masks-was-depleted-under-obama-and-not-replenished/

          11. any major effort to restore the stockpile

            One small facet of a generation who knows nothing about consequences or being prepared for anything.

        2. cheap rag over their face

          Dr. Birx has yet to fashion one of her fancy scarves as a mask.

          1. I hope she does — it would send a message. And at this point maybe someone could make a mask for Trump that does double duty as a gag.

  22. Dont worry – Toronto sales were up in march. I cant believe the prices

    https://globalnews.ca/news/6772633/toronto-home-sales-march-trending-down-coronavirus-pandemic/
    ———-
    Sales of 8,012 homes for the whole month was a 12.3 per cent climb from last year.

    The board says home sales were up 49 per cent in the first two weeks compared with last year, but sales were down 15.9 per cent compared with last year for the rest of the month.

    The board says the average selling price in March was up by 14.5 per cent to $902,680, while the average selling price for the second half of the month alone was up 10.5 per cent.

    1. I see they stopped reporting median price…. because median price is falling.

      It is an report from Realtors after all.

    2. The first phase of a price decline is higher prices, as only high end units sell. Note those big price cuts for “luxury” units in NYC. If those are the only units sell, then it appears that prices are rising.

      1. Not always. What happened in the SF Bay Area in the early 2000s Tech Stock collapse was that Silly Value homes began to crater, and simply stopped selling, while less expensive East Bay (e.g. Berkeley, Oakland, etc.) homes began flying off the shelves, as they were relatively affordable and gentrification was underway.

        But it’s different this time, as the demand collapse is ubiquitous.

  23. New York deems real estate business ‘essential’ during coronavirus pandemic:

    “The Empire State Development Corporation, the economic arm for New York state, has changed course on the real estate business during the COVID-19 crisis, just over two weeks after Cuomo deemed it nonessential. The guidance from ESD still encourages real estate agents to “maintain social distance to the extent possible,” but notes that showings (for both residential and commercial properties), inspections, and appraisals may resume.

    What this doesn’t mean is that traditional viewings—open houses, or even having an agent bring a client into a home for a one-on-one appointment—should continue, as was previously reported.

    “Being an ‘essential’ industry does not mean business as usual — business can only be conducted if social distancing and other public health protocols are followed and all must be doing everything they can to help stop the spread,” a spokesperson for ESD said in a statement. “For real estate, that means brokers can only transact business in their offices or show properties virtually, and anything else is off limits.”

    https://ny.curbed.com/2020/4/2/21204328/nyc-real-estate-coronavirus-home-showing

    There are no buyers. REALTOR, get a real job.

  25. Ad-block paywall article excerpt:

    “Nonbank financial firms spent years lobbying against tougher regulation and stricter capital requirements, arguing that their emerging dominance in mortgage lending didn’t pose a risk to the financial system.

    Now, many of those companies say they are in desperate need of a bailout to stave off bankruptcy and a potential collapse of the U.S. housing market.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/mortgage-servicers-teeter-near-crisis-that-regulators-saw-coming

    “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

  26. Funny, for some reason I haven’t seen this.

    New York doctor touts use of hydroxychloroquine as coronavirus treatment

    Lauren Holtmeier, Al Arabiya English
    Monday 30 March 2020

    A New York doctor says he has successfully treated coronavirus patients’ symptoms using hydroxychloroquine sulfate, zinc, and azithromycin.

    Dr. Vladimir Zelenko is a registered family doctor in Monroe, New York, where he runs two clinics and has said he has successfully treated respiratory symptoms of 699 coronavirus patients using a cocktail of the drugs, including the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine, a derivative of chloroquine.

    Zelenko said shortness of breath in patients subsided within four to six hours after treatment. He said that none of his patients had died or required intubation, and four had been hospitalized.

    On Sunday, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized the use of the two antimalarial drugs, hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for limited emergency use.

    https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2020/03/30/New-York-doctor-touts-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-as-coronavirus-treatment

    1. He has been reported as a quack elsewhere, so this may not be true.

      Then again, others who went against the grain and were considered quacks later turned out to be right.

      It would be great if we could get this shutdown over with by the end of May. So that people would be forced to realize the economic disaster was not caused by the shutdown.

  27. What happened to all the geniuses who just a month ago were boldly predicting that housing would go up as a consequence of the coronavirus outbreak? Could we please see some follow-up articles to document how well their predictions are faring?

      1. Chri$$y.”thorn.in.yer.$ide”.berg:

        “NO job lo$$es, NO Hou$ing.BUBBLE ll Debacle$!”

  28. This flu isn’t the Black Plauge.

    Good thing Doctors don’t usually run the World or the cure would be worse than the disease.

    I didn’t know that Governors had this kind of power to lock down for as long as they want. That is scary in itself.

    Now that the medical system has been shored up, I think we need to be talking about starting up the economy again. Say NO to a National Shutdown.

    How do you like big Government now?

    2. “How do you like big Government now?”

      $how me a li$t of Corporation$ & Individual$ that return$ their di$tributed $hare of $6+ Trillion$+ monie$ & those “”UNLIMITED” Fed Re$erve purcha$e$.

      (That might help you to an$wer yer own que$tion.)

      1. Why do people get mad when I talk about cranking up the economy again?

        We all go to the grocery store and the bank, etc. The high risk that are knowable are being protected by more now. The medical system has been set up to handle a uptick. New medications are being used.

        I’m just suggesting that getting the economy going by the end of the month should be talked about.

        I mean some hot spots might need a little bit longer. Nursing homes need greater protections. We can still have the hand washing and some social distance.

    3. And I don’t remember the Bill of Rights mentioning ’emergency’ as a reason for the suspension of rights. Insurrection and War are mentioned in the Constitution.

      I really do think this thing is not going to kill any more than would have died if we had done nothing. I don’t trust the accuracy of the tests either to isolate CV-19 vs other SARS Corona strains.

      The stats are going up folks because as you test more people you will get more hits. The virus is also likely already in peoples’ systems whereas symptoms show up in winter months due to lower Vitamin D production (non exposure to the Sun).

      And Trump owns this wreckage along with the Dims/Bolshevicks that promoted the overblown response. He did do some masterful political Jiu Jitsu by turning the attempted Coup number 3… 4 (i lost count) on it’s head but I’m never going to forgive any of these piss ant tyrants for destroying the common man/woman/main street including Trump.

      Funny how Mexico and Brazil seem to be able to ignore this.

      I hope you all end up well and with some semblance of freedom intact on the other side.

      1. Funny how Mexico and Brazil seem to be able to ignore this.

        Funny how Italy and Spain cannot.

        I wouldn’t be surprised if Mexico’s real numbers are far worse than reported. And from what I have read in Mexican media, there is panic there too.

        1. Northern Italy with the avg population age much higher than may other surrounding areas and with bad air pollution?

          El President de Mexico is still bucking the trend. We shall see.

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