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We Were Relying On This For Our Income, As Well As Our Retirement Plan, Now That’s Completely Died In The Arse

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “In an analysis of revenue from Airbnb bookings, AirDNA, a Denver-based analyst of the short-term rental industry, found that on the days that would have seen bookings for the Boston Marathon, revenue in Boston was down over 78%. In Palm Springs, the Coachella and Stagecoach festival postponements led to a nearly 50% decline; postponing the Derby and scrapping Keeneland erased 42%; Austin’s South by Southwest cancellation led to a 40% drop.”

“Jason Martin, 39, owns 15 condos and houses in Austin, Texas, most of them mortgaged and with between $3,200 and $5,900 in monthly carrying costs. Mr. Martin was on track to earn roughly $120,000; his strict cancellation policy mean that he should have held on to about $60,000 when all his bookings were wiped out. Airbnb’s relief program should yield him roughly $15,000, he said. ‘It’s better than nothing so it helps,’ said Mr. Martin, who calculates that ‘the entire busy season of the year has been cut down to at best 12.5% expected revenue.'”

“Josh Reed, 24, is a newcomer to the vacation rental business: He closed on his second home in Austin three weeks ago. The former investment adviser left his job last month and launched UrbanStay, a company that both buys and manages short-term rental homes that rent for between $300 and $900 a night. His two properties were booked for a total of $17,840 for SXSW, he said.”

“Nearly all those bookings evaporated. He still faces $13,400 in carrying costs for his two properties. He paid $720,000 for a home in October and $900,000 for another one that closed on March 13. His father cosigned the loans with him, he said. Mr. Reed said he has received 90 days’ forbearance on his two mortgages. The arrears will be tacked onto the end of the loan terms and he will not owe penalties or fees, Mr. Reed said.”

From Fortune on Texas. “Greg Nino would prefer to see oil prices climb. A real estate agent in Harris County, in the suburbs of Houston, Nino’s customers aren’t usually the highly-paid engineers and businesspeople based in the city’s corporate center. But the oil and gas sector has a way of impacting everything in Houston. ‘One way or another here,’ says Nino, ‘people are tied into oil and gas.'”

“In March, as Houston started to weigh social-distancing measures, Nino was still running open houses and talking to potential buyers. Suddenly, a bidder from a big corporate oil company was no longer a great bet, he says, compared to someone who owns, say, a pawn shop. ‘Ordinarily it’s the complete opposite,’ says Nino. ‘I would take the guy from Halliburton all day over the guy from the pawn shop.'”

From Community Impact on Texas. “Community Impact Newspaper chatted with Tim Sojka, a residential and commercial Realtor, to learn more about how real estate is adapting to the pandemic. The company offers real estate services throughout Houston but focuses on Katy, Fulshear, Richmond, Cypress and Sugar Land. Q: What types of homes are selling right now?”

“A: Anything less than $300,000 we’ve seen a lot of offers on. And we see multiple offers on anything sub $200,000. The higher-end stuff, I’ve seen offers on, but people are [giving low offers]. We’ll have a $1 million listing, and someone offers $850,000.”

From Bethesda Magazine in Maryland. “JT Burton, a Bethesda-based real estate agent said the unknown elements of the coronavirus outbreak are ‘crippling’ his clients. ‘People want [home buying and selling] to be scientific, but at the end of the day, it’s individuals making emotional decisions, and that’s a big part of it. My industry is hinged on people making emotional decisions, and people’s emotions are all over the map right now,’ he said.”

“Burton said that in 15 years in real estate, he hasn’t seen anything like the current situation. ‘Three weeks ago, we were in the hottest market we’ve been in since 2007, and interest rates were better and inventory was down 24% from where it was last year,’ he said. ‘So it was a perfect storm and an incredible time to be a seller. And that literally fell off a cliff in 10 days.'”

From Mortgage Professional America. “Over 6 million Americans have already filed for unemployment. That is nauseating news for landlords across the country. ‘Everything’s grinded to a halt, so until we start seeing some transactions flow, we don’t really know how bad the impact’s going to be on your $300,000 home. Is it now worth $200,000? $270,000? I think we’re going to know more in the next few weeks as we climb out of this and we start to see some transactions coming through,’ said HouseCanary CEO Jeremy Sicklick.”

“‘Comparisons to the financial Chernobyl of 2008 abound, but Sicklick says it’s too early to say if the shockwaves from COVID-19 will be enough to completely destabilize the U.S. housing market. ‘The real question is are there going to be a lot of foreclosures and deep distress in the market, or is the government, or government programs, going to help enough people bridge through so that we don’t have that kind of distress,’ he says. ‘If the government programs do not work and ultimately a lot of jobs don’t come back, it could look as big, if not much bigger than what we saw during the global financial crisis.'”

The Telegraph on the UK. “Landlords will suffer the effects of lockdown long after coronavirus restrictions are lifted as tenants fail to pay, viewings grind to a halt, vacancies rise and new rental properties crowd the market. Some will be forced to leave cities when rental contracts expire and return home, perhaps to parents’ houses or overseas, leaving landlords with empty properties.”

“Buy-to-let investors must prepare for monthly rents to fall. Supply has started to outstrip demand as new properties have joined the rental market. In London, a large number of homes that were previously listed on short-term rental websites such as Airbnb have swamped the market as tourists have cancelled bookings. These properties are now being advertised to long-term tenants at lower prices.”

From the Guardian on Australia. “In the decade before the pandemic, Airbnb became ‘this very attractive thing,’ says Chris Martin, a senior research fellow at the University of New South Wales’s City Futures Research Centre. A home is no longer just a home, Martin says. ‘[The company] tapped into the idea that a person’s house can also be viewed as an asset that has capacity for generating income.’ This shift ‘massively upped the scale of [short-term rental],’ which in turn put pressure on residential rental markets.”

“Lisa Porgazian and her husband have listed their three Gold Coast apartments on Airbnb for the past four years. Now the properties are empty, and the mortgage payments will come out of the couple’s superannuation. ‘We were relying on this for our income, as well as our retirement plan,’ she says, distraught. ‘Now that’s completely died in the arse.'”

“Porgazian, a 46-year-old former IT contractor, has been managing her property portfolio full-time. She’s unable to work in many other jobs due to rheumatoid arthritis. ‘I’m earning zero. My husband’s earning zero. And we’ve still got these mortgages to pay.'”

“With the spread of Covid-19, a downturn in business was inevitable. But many Airbnb hosts were shocked at how quickly it came. The company introduced a policy earlier this month allowing all guests who booked prior to 14 March (and were checking in no later than 31 May) to cancel existing bookings for free. Porgazian says this left hosts holding the cheque. ‘We lost everything straight away … Everything is cancelled, basically until Christmas.'”

“Travis Lipshus, a real estate agent in Byron Bay, thinks this chaos for Airbnb hosts could result in cheaper long-term rent for locals. He’s getting flooded with properties from Airbnb hosts who now need permanent tenants. But with so many of the town’s hospitality staff and backpackers currently out of work ‘there’s not enough tenants to fill these places.'”

“If rents did lower, it would be a massive relief. It’s notoriously difficult for locals to find affordable rentals in Byron Bay, as 17.6% of properties are listed as holiday accommodation. ‘Airbnb should be banned up here,’ Lipshus says. ‘The cost of living is insane. I’ve lived in all sorts of places here, and it’s not uncommon to pay at least 50% of your wage in rent.'”

“‘A lot of people have over-leveraged themselves with these properties,’ Lipshus says. ‘The upper-middle class are probably going to be fine. But the middle class – the ones taking risks, trying to get up that class ladder – they’re going to be pretty f*cked.'”

“Lisa Porgazian knows what people are saying. ‘The criticism that we’re getting is ‘well you shouldn’t have a business if you can’t pay for it’, but who ever predicted something like this?'”

This Post Has 158 Comments
    1. Mania #2 (xaoh.deeth.👾.hy$teria)
      I$ feeding & devouring$
      Mania #1 (Bubble$.Every.Thang$)

      👾 … ✈ … 👾 …🛳 … 👾 … 🏡 … 👾 …🏗🏘 …👾 … 🏟🏌️‍♂️⚽️🏀⚾️🎾🏇🏁🎷🎸🎺🎻📯🎼🎙🎹 … 👾 … 🗼🏝🌉 … 👾 … 🛢… 👾 … 🧓👵👴👩‍⚕️👨‍⚕️👩‍🚒👮‍♂️ … 👾 … 🌍🌎🌏 … to.bee.continued?

      Next up:📰📅 📈📉Earning$! 🚮🚾… 👾 …

      1. Let’$ fotward it & put a $mile on Boris’s mug, anyone know which Hoss.spittal ICU he’s in?

    1. “That summer he was on the brink of a breakthrough, accumulating the lifestyle trappings he felt a celebrity author must have—including a fashionable mistress, Pauline Pfeiffer.”

      This guy was apparently a masochist too.

  1. “…Josh Reed, 24, is a newcomer to the vacation rental business…”

    “…His two properties were booked for a total of $17,840..”

    “…Nearly all those bookings evaporated. He still faces $13,400 in carrying costs for his two properties…”

    Regular HBB readers have known for years in their heart of hearts that too many loan owners were way, way over leveraged, but such observations were largely based on empirical data.

    Now, the Josh Reed story and some hard data. Exhibit A.

    How many hundreds or thousands stories like this one are yet to come?

    My heart tells me that this is the tip of an iceberg in a sea of icebergs.

    Just Wow.

    1. Yeah, and he got deal to stop paying cuz…

      It’s federally backed! That’s right, the guberment is backing loans to illegal hotel outfits owned by 24 YOs. What could go wrong?

  2. ‘Luckin Coffee (LK.O) Chairman Charles Zhengyao Lu and Chief Executive Jenny Zhiya Qian have handed over shares in the embattled Chinese coffee chain to lenders after a company controlled by Lu’s family defaulted on a $518 million margin loan, one of the banks said on Monday.’

    ‘The default comes after Luckin, a major rival to Starbucks in China, said last week that much of its 2019 sales were fabricated, sending its shares plunging as much as 82% in U.S. trading and sparking an investigation by China’s securities regulator.’

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-luckin-coffee-investigation-chairman/luckin-coffee-chairman-defaults-on-loan-surrenders-company-shares-idUSKBN21O21R

    1. In qua$i.Capitali$m, ya don’t even need to lie & deceive$ in order to receive$ Federal billion$$$$ in Gubermint$ di$tributed fund$.

      A $imple, “help$.eye’ve fallen$.down$.&.can’t.get.📈’$”
      Hurry!, … i$ $ufficient.

      1. Well, but some pay a higher price/puni$hment in China then folks like Mr.Made.off., no hot.chocolate fer them.

    1. If it led to the collapse of Housing Bubble 2.0, then at least a useful purpose was served.

      1. Eye helped cause the the Hou$ing Bubble ll to bur$t using xaoh.👾.hy$teria & all eye gots was this,
        Lousy T-Shirt!

    2. Surgeon General: This week will be like a ‘Pearl Harbor’ and ‘9/11’ moment
      By Sarah Westwood, CNN
      Updated 1:25 PM ET, Sun April 5, 2020

      (CNN) The US surgeon general said this week is going to be the “hardest and the saddest” for “most Americans’ lives,” describing the upcoming grim period of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States as a “Pearl Harbor moment” and a “9/11 moment.”

      “This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment, only it’s not going to be localized, it’s going to be happening all over the country and I want America to understand that,” Vice Admiral Jerome Adams said on “Fox News Sunday.”
      Adams continued: “I want Americans to understand that as hard as this week is going to be, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.”

      1. hy·per·bo·le
        /hīˈpərbəlē/

        noun: hyperbole; plural noun: hyperboles

        -exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally.

        Fake news (also known as junk news, pseudo-news, or hoax news)[1][2] is a form of news consisting of deliberate disinformation or hoaxes spread via traditional news media (print and broadcast) or online social media.[3][4] Digital news has brought back and increased the usage of fake news, or yellow journalism.[5] The news is then often reverberated as misinformation in social media but occasionally finds its way to the mainstream media as well.[6]

        Fake news is written and published usually with the intent to mislead in order to damage an agency, entity, or person, and/or gain financially or politically,[7][8][9] often using sensationalist, dishonest, or outright fabricated headlines to increase readership.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fake_news

        CCP virus hype has died in the arse.

        1. ‘The daily deaths in New York from COVID-19 were “effectively flat” for the second day in a row as state officials expressed optimism that the peak of the new disease has arrived. Projections that once said the state would need up to 140,000 hospital beds and 40,000 ventilators have been severely dialed down as it appears the apex may have arrived at a much lower level.’

          ‘Areas that experience COVID-19, a disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as novel coronavirus, see an increase of cases before the number peaks and, soon after, drops. The process is known as a curve by epidemiologists.’

          “The hospital admissions are down, the ICU admissions are down, and the daily intubations are down. Those are all good signs and would suggest a possible flattening of the curve,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo told reporters at a press conference in Albany on Monday.’

          ‘Officials now believe the new cases may have plateaued much lower than previous projections, a shift announced just hours after a major model cited by Cuomo and national officials was revised downward.’

          ‘The belief is informed by the robust dataset that officials have compiled, Jim Malatras, president of the State University of New York’s Empire State College, said at the press conference. “We are, potentially, at the apex or beginning to be at the apex,” he said.’

          ‘New York is by far the most affected state in the nation and has struggled to react to the epidemic. The bulk of the cases are in New York City, where leaders were telling members of the public as late as March to continue going out to eat as other states implemented strict measures.’

          https://www.theepochtimes.com/covid-19-deaths-in-new-york-effectively-flat-for-2-days-as-curve-possibly-flattens_3300271.html

          Ahem…

          ‘New York City, where leaders were telling members of the public as late as March to continue going out to eat’

          1. ‘New York City, where leaders were telling members of the public as late as March to continue going out to eat’

            So, the lockdown worked in the other locations, indicating it was necessary?

          2. https://bittube.tv/post/5f23c629-74d1-4b5a-b3af-ce6ca4dca360

            NYC Health Commissioner: “We’re telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the subway, go out, enjoy life” February 7, 2020

            There are multiple clips of this overpaid GovHack advising the public on NBC-NY4 news to do the same…. in March.

            Here’s some doozies from the other two stooges… “the risk is low”……. and they did nothing.

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/03/01/new-york-city-confirmed-its-first-coronavirus-patient-heres-what-you-need-to-know/#1dcb44c14097

          3. Youre wasting your time presenting facts – they don’t matter to the deranged who want to blame everything from a global pandemic to their raging hemorrhoids on Orange Man Bad.

        2. Well Ben, it’s all part of the prevention business. The lockdown we are in now is a massive prevention project. And at the end, there’s no proof as to whether it was the lockdown which mitigated the situation, or if it was going to be “OK” even without lockdown. And there are always those who think any preventative was a waste of time.

          1. https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/03/24/flu-update

            ‘According to CDC, this year’s flu season has led to at least 17 million medical visits and 390,000 hospitalizations. CDC found that the percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness increased to 5.8% in the week ending on March 14, up from 5.2% the previous week. The national baseline for those visits is 2.4%. CDC in its latest report estimated that there had been at least 23,000 deaths related to the flu as of March 14.’

            So why don’t we have shut downs for flu season? Because the economy can’t take it. Society couldn’t take the broke assedness that would result, so nobody in their right mind would even suggest such a thing. The people that are going to die from flu likely would eventually do so eventually, shut down or no. I could understand the “hospitals are gonna be swamped, run away” thing. But hospitals haven’t been swamped. Evey hour it seems more and more shutting down the economy longer than the hospital thing was evident is just going full costco. And all these “experts” with their “bring out yer dead” are the medical field equivalent of toilet paper hoarders.

          2. And at the end, there’s no proof as to whether it was the lockdown which mitigated the situation, or if it was going to be “OK” even without lockdown. In the months/years to come the epidemiologists will survey the entire US population to get an estimate of how many contracted WuFlu with or without being aware of it, and somehow became immune. Because of our current inability to adequately test for the actual # of acute / recovered cases, we have no idea. I have mentioned before that following the day to day deaths and comparing them to the usual, is how epidemiologists get the tipoff that an epidemic is happening. Before all the fancy microbiological methods were developed, the epi guys following the flattening out of the level of sickness to see when the epidemic had run its course, for whatever reason.

        3. Well, when you consider that there were 2,400 fatalities in the Pearl Harbor attack and about 3,000 on 9/11, we’re just a little bit over them now.

          Going to be funny when all of the respirators and toilet paper hit eBay.

      2. Yes Admiral, but this is perhaps (maybe not) the first war on US citizens perpetuated at least on a broad scale by their gov overlords against the citizenry. Just remember the words of your WWII counterpart and better man, General Yamamoto that we will be waiting behind every blade of grass and we know who the enemy is.

  3. Could this news possibly help explain today’s meltup on Wall Street?

    The Financial Times
    US equities
    US shareholders brace for nine-year squeeze on dividends
    Recovery in payouts expected to take longer than after 2008 crisis
    Richard Henderson in Melbourne 4 hours ago

    Dividends paid to investors by big US companies will take nine years to recover from the downturn caused by coronavirus, according to bets in the futures market, marking the biggest hit to corporate payouts since the second world war.

    Companies in the S&P 500 delivered almost half a trillion dollars in dividends last year, or $56 per share. But companies around the world have come under pressure to cut payouts to shareholders and focus on keeping up payments to workers and other stakeholders, now that the virus has in many cases hit revenues.

    It will take until 2028 to beat the tally from 2019, according to the prices of futures contracts linked to annual dividends for the benchmark. That compares with the three years dividends took to recover after the 2008-09 financial crisis and a 19-year run from the Great Depression through to 1949, according to data compiled by Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist.

    Just a month ago investors were betting the S&P 500 would deliver a record $61 per share in payouts this year, noted BNY Mellon. That expectation now stands at just $40, mirroring a 27 per cent fall in US stock prices since the peak in February.

    The lacklustre outlook for payouts reflects the pain facing the global economy from the coronavirus pandemic. The dip will hurt investors who rely on steady income from stocks, such as pension funds, and comes after the yield on safe corporate and government bonds has dropped sharply in recent years.

    1. The government will just have to take action to force later-born generations to buy stocks at inflated prices, to make up for even lower dividends those who hold those assets might have received.

      1. Not everyone seems convinced that the Fed’s curve flattening measures are consistent with a short V-shaped recession and recovery.

        ‘What’s particularly troubling to [JP Morgan’s] Matejka is that the current recession has been triggered by a shock to the consumer — which makes up 70% of GDP in Western economies — as workers around the globe are prevented from earning a living by the closures of nonessential business. This dynamic has led J.P. Morgan economists to predict “only a gradual bottoming out in activity, such as seen after the Great Financial Crisis, and not a V-shaped one that we see, for example, after natural disasters.” A so-called V-shaped economic recession is typically defined as one characterized by a sharp, but brief, slowdown in business activity that is followed by a powerful rebound.

        The bank’s house view is that the unemployment rate will remain elevated at 8.5% during the second of the year, while the peak-to-trough decline in real U.S. GDP will be 10%, versus the 4% decline during the financial crisis. “And this is all assuming that the virus is history by June, which might prove significantly optimistic,” Matejka wrote.

        Therefore, he advised clients to ignore technical signals indicating stocks are oversold, or to be reassured by the massive fiscal and monetary support provided by global governments. To do so would be “missing the elephant in the room, that is the first consumer and labor market downcycle in 11 years.”

        “While consensus view still appears to be a quick recovery, recessions tend to linger,” Matejka added. “It took equities on average 18 months to record the final low in the past.”’

    2. Could this news possibly help explain today’s meltup on Wall Street?

      There’s still WAY too much money sloshing around out there.

      1. Do you enjoy swimming alongside ‘naked’ investors? (And by the way, this discussion applies ×10 for homebuyers competing for shelter purchases with subprime mortgage HODLers.)

        Opinion: ‘Naked’ investors — not coronavirus numbers — will determine how much stocks rally
        Published: April 6, 2020 at 11:25 a.m. ET
        By Nigam Arora
        Investors who went all-in on stocks might sell once they recoup some of their losses, leading to a bigger decline in the market
        A Polar Bear Club swimmer carries an American flag as the group makes their annual icy plunge into the Atlantic Ocean. Getty Images

        In stock market investing, often the hardest thing to do is to go against the crowd.

        The prevailing wisdom among stock investors now is to buy when the number of new coronavirus cases slows. Data from Italy, Spain, France, Germany and, most importantly, New York, indicate that new cases may have peaked. Many investors are rushing headlong into the stock market.

        In our analysis at The Arora Report, the near-term course of the stock market will depend primarily on the behavior of “naked investors” (more on those later) and secondarily on news related to cures or treatments.

  4. As I (may) have noted before, services such as Uber and AirBNB, as initially described, were good ideas. But the good ideas turned out to be trojan horses.

    The original idea was for households to earn a few extra bucks renting out spare rooms, and taking people along in spare seats in their cars in trips they would have made anyway. That was a socially useful — but limited — market.

    What it turned into was a takeover of the housing market and the taxi industry by people trying to earn a living doing just that, turning places they don’t live into hotels and making extra trips to drive people around. This was the market they had to monopolize to justify their inflated valuations.

    Same with Zillow, which could not be satisfied with being a spiffed up and superior listing service and had to become a market maker. And WeWork, which could not be satisfied operating a limited number of co-working spaces in cheap or owned spaces for entrepreneurs, and had to become a real estate bank for the general market.

    Any of these firms might be valuable in bankruptcy, if the bros and the debts and the VCs could be gotten rid of and replaced by people with sense.

  5. ‘Everything’s grinded to a halt, so until we start seeing some transactions flow, we don’t really know how bad the impact’s going to be on your $300,000 home. Is it now worth $200,000? $270,000?’

    Sounds like it might be an appraisal problem Sicklick.

    1. “I do have a mortgage and housemates pay rent to me which helps me to pay that mortgage. One of those housemates is currently out of work which means that he cannot pay rent. This creates a financial strain on me when it’s time to pay the mortgage. I actually support rent strikes but I am a hypocrite for not supporting my own housemates to rent strike while I receive no relief for my mortgage lien holder. My name is Brent from Oklahoma City.”

      ‘One California listener wrote to us: “I am a landlord and financial stability is based entirely on rental income. There are mortgages on each property so it has been important to receive rent.”

      https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/takeaway/segments/listeners-hit-hard-with-rent-housing-costs-covid19

      1. No need to worry about a few missed rent payments. Today’s precious snowflakes have been imbued by our NEA indoctrination mills with a strong moral code and sense of honor, a veneration for traditional virtues, and a disdain for freeloading and parasitism that ensures they will always honor their financial obligations.

        I slay me….

    2. What a great name for a guy working in real estate — you know, because the industry tends to be…

  6. But the middle class – the ones taking risks, trying to get up that class ladder –

    Every class has things to hate about them. But sometimes it seems the ones in the middle are the most disgustingly desperate to screw anybody and everybody to move up. Maybe they are the first generation in their family to have a chance to move up and are less experienced in how to at least show a little class while doing it? They look down at the rappers saying “get rich or die trying”, but they seem worse.

    1. Dunno Carl but you sound a lot like another Karl (Marx) I’ve read a fair bit of and about.

      It could be that there is a similar percentage of sociopaths in the population at large such that the middle class being the largest slice of the population in socioeconomic terms, you simply find more middle-class shmucks. Personally I believe most of the middle-class sociopaths end up in government ‘leadership’ gigs.

      1. Dunno Carl but you sound a lot like another Karl (Marx) I’ve read a fair bit of and about.

        Yeah, that’s me. Marx was really good at one thing, foreseeing how crony capitalists would kill the goose laying the golden eggs to make a little more money today. At proposing better solutions, not so much. For that, I think our founding fathers still have everyone beat.

  7. Anything under 300,000 we are seeing offers on and we are seeing multiple offers on anything sub$200,000.

    I find this incredibly hard to believe.
    As the article mentioned every thing is Houston is indirectly (or directly) tied to oil.
    Anyone in Houston over the age of 50 with an IQ over 80 is probably saving their nickels and pennies.
    I lived in Houston in the early 80’s when oil went from $40 a barrel to $8 a barrel. It was not a good time and it lasted what, 15 years.
    Will this time be worse???

    1. Who cares about Texas prices. Many Cali expats sold their overpriced California Sh*t Shacks and bought on the cheap in Texas before the 08′ crash thinking they were geniuses, that is, until they realized what a nightmare Texas is in respect to weather. Oppressive heat and humidity you can cut with a knife, tornadoes, hurricanes, hail storms, fire ants…
      One Cali expat who bought in Texas remarked how shocked he was at the softball-sized hail that damaged his car and roof of his new home. “Welcome to Texas, Dumb*ss.”

  8. By Liam DillonStaff Writer
    April 5, 2020
    6 AM

    Simona Boneva knew she wasn’t going to be able to pay her rent this month. Her shift as an office manager at a media company was cut in half, and her bartending job went away entirely because of the citywide shutdown over the coronavirus outbreak.

    When she went to talk to her landlord, the company responded with a letter outlining terms for it to agree to temporary relief and a repayment plan — among them that she turn over any money from a federal stimulus check or from a charity within five days.

    1. among them that she turn over any money from a federal stimulus check or from a charity within five days

      How would they ever know she received such funds?

  9. “Nearly all those bookings evaporated. He still faces $13,400 in carrying costs for his two properties. He paid $720,000 for a home in October and $900,000 for another one that closed on March 13. His father cosigned the loans with him, he said. Mr. Reed said he has received 90 days’ forbearance on his two mortgages. The arrears will be tacked onto the end of the loan terms and he will not owe penalties or fees, Mr. Reed said.”

    How convenient. So they’re helping speculators, not end users.

    1. Hey Mr. Reed when I said start out small I didn’t mean buy $1.6 million in real estate. You trying to be the president or something? If so try Deutsche Bank next time instead of Dad.

    2. “He paid $720,000 for a home in October and $900,000 for another one that closed on March 13. His father cosigned the loans with him, he said.”

      Neither of these two places will ever appreciate or be paid for; short version, they’re both phuc’d. The only positive here is Texas is a walkaway state.

      1. I suspect his Dad isn’t real happy right now, wishing he had used better judgement and said “no” to his son instead of putting his head on the chopping block. The rule of thumb every aging person should know is the closer you get to retirement the FURTHER YOU RUN FROM RISK.

  10. “Porgazian, a 46-year-old former IT contractor, has been managing her property portfolio full-time. She’s unable to work in many other jobs due to rheumatoid arthritis. ‘I’m earning zero. My husband’s earning zero. And we’ve still got these mortgages to pay.’”

    She couldn’t be seated at a console for an IT consulting career, but somehow she is managing more or less the same as an Airbnb host? I’m going to call bullshit on “unable”.

  11. How about instead of everyone being forced to cower at home in fear during the next four months while the economic collapse continues to worsen, those who have an antibody test that confirms COVID-19 immunity are issued “COVID-19 passports” that they can carry in their wallets, which enable free movement in public and access to work opportunities.

    We need to right the ship sooner than later!

      1. It could simply be a mark or an RFID in your driver’s license. Or as Gates proposes, it could be placed on your body.

        But imagine if your movement could be seriously restricted until you get one. You’d have to get it scanned to enter any facility with public access. Never mind getting past TSA, how about you can’t enter a grocery store without one?

        On the other hand, government is so inefficient, that it would take years to get it into place. By that time the virus will be a distant memory.

        1. The gobmit may farm this out to ruthless tech companies like Amazon, GooG, MS, FB, Apple etc. The tech companies & the technology isso cool, people will camp outside days in advance to get implanted.

        2. It’s already happening.
          Stay at Home unless shopping is a lot of movement restriction. Can’t even take a socially-distanced walk on the beach.

          1. Movement is also restricted while shopping. Lines outside the grocery store could be steadily shortened with COVID-19 passports.

      2. A lot cheaper than keeping the economy shut down indefinitely, if someone figures out the financing. For instance, bailouts could be targeted on those who need them, instead of drowning the financial system with untargeted helicopter drops of liquidity.

        1. Nah. How about just opening the economy back up since they’re now saying the projected dead are along the lines of a bad seasonal flu?

          1. Not sure how much we know just yet.

            For example, looking at some numbers from the San Diego Union-Tribune,

            Number of California cases = 10,701

            Number of Californians tested = 35,300

            Positive test result rate = 2 in 7

            Number of untested Californians = 39.5 million

            Feel free to do the maths!

          2. Positive test result rate = 2 in 7

            Aren’t they only testing symptomatic people though? Therefore, the idea that the percentage infected in the entire population would be 2 in 7 seems a stretch.

          3. “Therefore, the idea that the percentage infected in the entire population would be 2 in 7 seems a stretch.”

            That’s a known unknown, and hard to estimate without experimentally designed random sampling of the rest of the population. For example, maybe most people who haven’t been tested have or had mild cases. Or maybe most people who weren’t tested haven’t yet been exposed. Who knows? There are at least three subroups of interest in the untested population:

            1) Haven’t had it.
            2) Have it now.
            3) Had it and survived (and now have antibodies).

    1. Why passport? Why not put a mark in the forehead? A dot in the forehead will be really cheap.

    2. And if the wildly inaccurate PCR test does not show the proper anti-bodies what then? You might be lucky and get a false positive but for those that don’t do they get the untested vaccine? For those that are lucky to have the antibodies from exposure to pretty much any Corona strain are we really seriously considering as ‘In Colorado’ below that people get chipped like cattle to carry on about their lives?

      1. And if the wildly inaccurate PCR test does not show the proper anti-bodies what then?

        PCR is for nucleic acids. Antibodies are proteins.

        1. Sorry – I stand corrected. Is it true that test can pick up other RNA strains of Corona other than CV-19?

          1. Nucleic acid tests from ThermoFisher, Roche and Abbott appear to be specific to SARS-CoV-2, the virus associated with the disease, COVID-19. The nomenclature may be confusing people. The “-2” indicates its uniqueness while the “SARS-CoV” indicates its relatedness. I posted all the links a few threads back. It’s Blursday so how many Blursdays ago I’m not sure.

          2. The RNA test is not a unique technique. The test is like a key that works in the lock or doesn’t. What you’re testing for is very specific, but you couldn’t tell the test from last years without the label. My understanding anyway.

    3. Talk about moral hazard.

      The model predicts that this first wave will infect 3% of the population.
      Those “lucky” 3% — for example, the ones who partied on Spring Break — will have free movement to work. They’ll make very high wages, and get ahead, because they’ll be in demand, while everyone who was a good little solider and quarantined will be stuck in quarantine. Within weeks people will break quarantine and coughing on each other with the sole purpose of getting the disease and then that golden ticket. What if you have, say, high blood pressure? It would be too risky, and you would be denied.

      No, I think the only fair way to go is masks for everyone.

      1. And let me add, that our best bet right now is a treatment. If there is something to prescribe to even the mild cases, perhaps a z-pack, some Tylenol, and some zinc, then we can get this down to a regular flu. Between masks and a treatment, we get by while waiting for a vaccine.

        1. Between masks and a treatment, we get by while waiting for a vaccine. You left out asymptomatic patients who unknowingly survive COVID-19 infections. If there are enough of them (%-age is unknown at present) the epidemic will sputter out as herd immunity develops. A vaccine may not be necessary for this to happen.

  12. Now the properties are empty, and the mortgage payments will come out of the couple’s superannuation. ‘We were relying on this for our income, as well as our retirement plan,’

    I thought that the superannuation was the retirement plan in Oz, similar to our 401K, except that employers there have to contribute 12% to it. That they have a balance to raid to pay the mortgages implies that they are older, which brings up the question: why were they playing the real estate casino? Did they think they were shooting fish in a barrel? Of course they did.

    Aussies also have something comparable to US Social Security, though it is means tested. From wikipeadia:

    Australian resident citizens over 67 years of age are entitled to an age pension if their income and assets are below specified levels. The full pension, as at 2014, was $766 every two weeks for singles and $577.40 each for couples. This reduced by 50% of any income over $160 every two weeks for singles or $284 for couples. The pension may also be reduced for 0.15% of assets other than the home over $202,000 or $286,500 for single or couples. The pension is reduced by the maximum of the income and assets test.

    Keep in mind that those are AUD, not USD.

  13. Carolina Beach, NC Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Coastal Property Market Turns Toxic On Rampant Mortgage Fraud

    https://www.zillow.com/carolina-beach-nc/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    A noted economist stated, “A housing ‘recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.”

  14. His father cosigned the loans with him, he said. Mr. Reed said he has received 90 days’ forbearance on his two mortgages.

    You two are going to love bonding over many future trash can fires.

  15. We’ll have a $1 million listing, and someone offers $850,000.”

    Wait’ll you get a load of the lowball offers the Knife Catcher is going to be receiving.

  16. Latest Updates

    April 6

    An estimated additional 180 – 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. “Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don’t have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic,” said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    1. Yup. It could be far worse than we know. Nobody is testing corpses for COVID-19.

      On the other hand, four friends of ours got really sick with mild COVID-19 type symptoms, and never went to the doctor let alone the hospital before recovering.

      We don’t know the numerator or the denominator for a death rate.

      AND we don’t know how much those who recover with lung damage will be affected later in life.

      BUT we have identified the illness, and the virus, we do have a test, and we do have commercial tests, after four months. For AIDS that took four YEARS. So 40 years of advancing science and communications have gotten us something.

        1. A lot of post Morten tests are being done and if it comes back positive it goes in the CV category even if the person got hit by a train. Right now they are diagnosing a flat tire in the hospital parking lot as CV because insurance companies are paying out 100% and with all appointments and other procedures cancelled the hospitals have almost no income and are burning through millions in cash everyday to stay open.

          In colonial India, the British offered bounties to reduce the cobra population. Not being as primitive and clueless as the Brits had assumed, the natives secretly bred cobras to collect the bounty, Forced to scrap the bounty, the cobra population increased significantly when cobra breeders released their worthless snakes.

      1. Thank you for that, Larry. As medicine goes, we are moving at the speed of light. But this virus is faster. Well wishes to Boris Johnson. I wonder if he has any underlying conditions.

    2. “An estimated additional 180 – 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures.”

      They must be good at estimating for a city that has 470 deaths a day 365 days a year every year.

      1. “Uncounted cases don’t count.”

        “An estimated additional 180 – 195″

        Based on what?

        1. I would guess that is a ballpark estimate someone cooked up of people dying of COVID-19 counted as due to some other cause, as a result of never having been tested, but I honestly don’t know to what lengths NYC coroners go to determine the actual cause of death.

    1. Xaoh.deeth 👾

      📣🎙: “it’s the common.cold folks!” 👾 … Ra$h.limpbaugh$

        1. $afe @ any.$peed! 🚗

          By Ralph.theliarmouth.Radar

          “Reports range from 27 to 180 deaths as a result of rear-impact-related fuel tank fires in the Pinto, but given the volume of more than 2.2 million vehicles sold, the death rate was not substantially different from that of vehicles by Ford’s competitors. The far more damaging result for Ford was the PR disaster.”

          May 20, 2011
          Popular Mechanics › cars

          (Eye rode in a corvair dune.buggy near.thee.Mexico.border & lived to tell ’bouts it!)

  17. But in an effort to reduce mortgage rates, the Fed has been purchasing an incredible amount of Mortgage Backed Securities, causing their price to rise dramatically and swiftly. This, in turn, causes the Lenders’ hedged short positions of MBS to show huge losses. These losses appear to be offset, on paper, by the potential market gains on the loans that the lender hopes to close in the future. But the Broker Dealer will not wait on the possibility of future loans closing and demands an immediate margin call. The recent amount that these Lenders are paying in margin calls is staggering. They run in the tens of millions of dollars. All this on top of the aforementioned stresses that Lenders are having to endure. So, while the Fed believes they are stimulating lending, their actions are resulting in the exact opposite. The market for Government Loans, Jumbo Loans, and loans that don’t fit ideal parameters, have all but dried up. And many Lenders have no choice but to slow their intake of transactions by throttling mortgage rates higher and by reducing the term that they are willing to guarantee a rate lock.

    https://www.mbshighway.com/mortgage-crisis.html

  18. My industry is hinged on people making emotional decisions, and people’s emotions are all over the map right now,’ he said.”

    How many couples signed up for their financial Waterloo because the half of the couple that makes decisions based on emotions rather than cold hard logic hen-pecked hubby into submission?

    1. And how many of those decisions were made by hubby who wanted to get rich quick and do the FIRE thing? Men are ruled by emotion too… just a different set of emotions.

    2. The toilet paper industry is also hinged on emotional decisions, apparently. “Suzanne researched this,” so therefore you need to go buy a tractor-trailer load of TP this instant.

  19. ‘We were relying on this for our income, as well as our retirement plan,’ she says, distraught. ‘Now that’s completely died in the arse.’”

    How many young couple’s dreams of starting their life together in decent affordable housing died in the arse because speculators like you drove prices into the stratosphere?

  20. So it was a perfect storm and an incredible time to be a seller. And that literally fell off a cliff in 10 days.’”

    No, you wanker, the housing did not literally fall off a cliff. Kind of wish you would, though.

  21. “Buy-to-let investors must prepare for monthly rents to fall. Supply has started to outstrip demand as new properties have joined the rental market.

    Gosh, in such a scenario I fear there is a real possibility that someone who overpaid could lose a lot of money.

  22. “Travis Lipshus, a real estate agent in Byron Bay, thinks this chaos for Airbnb hosts could result in cheaper long-term rent for locals.

    Especially when the Airbnb hosts who over-extended to finance their shacks, counting on a steady flow of guests, lose their alligators to foreclosure and the property passes into more prudent hands.

  23. ‘Airbnb should be banned up here,’ Lipshus says. ‘The cost of living is insane. I’ve lived in all sorts of places here, and it’s not uncommon to pay at least 50% of your wage in rent.’”

    The rage is misplaced. The blame for asset bubbles and the soaring cost of living lies squarely at the feet of the Keynesian fraudsters at the central banks. The Airbnb hosts were just the hapless small-time speculators who were along for the ride.

  24. “We’ll have a $1 million listing, and someone offers $850,000.”
    You should be grateful. A couple months from now you won’t get any offers at all.

    1. $850,000 @ 0.125% = $2,400 per month @ 360 amortization.

      (Iffin’ ya waits, it might go lower$ & ya mights even get$ a “Free Deferment$!” too.)

    1. “Are the fatties more at risk from coronavirus?”

      Hehe…can you rephrase that in “body positive terms?”

    2. All the Covid19 Doctors, Scientists and other Experts know obesity is not good when it comes to Covid19 (70% of Italy’s critical cases are/were obese). However, we all know why mainstream media outlets have remained muted on that very fact. If they told the truth, they’d immediately get attacked as being “fat shaming nazis!!”
      This is sad, because telling the truth could have provided a compelling driver for home-bound overweight folks to commit to a healthier lifestyle and start on a path to shedding some pounds.

      1. From the article:
        ————-
        ” in the Netherlands …66 percent to 80 percent of COVID-19 patients in intensive care wards were overweight….
        During the influenza A (H1N1) – or swine flu – viral pandemic of 2009, studies showed that obesity was an independent risk factor…
        This imbalance in the immune system and chronic inflammation of normal tissue has put people with obesity at increased risk of complications of infections and higher rates of chronic diseases generally.
        —————-

        The Paleo/ketogenic/intermittent fasting community has been talking about inflammation for years, especially caused by wheat gluten and high insulin. This quarantine is a good time to ration food and even fast for a couple days here and there. That really cuts down on the inflammation.

  25. $oooooooo ea$y to $olve these xaoh 👾’$ i$$ue$. Ea$y.Pea$y!

    BUSINE$$ NEWS / APRIL 6, 2020

    Fed says it will provide financing against new U.S$. ‘payroll protection’ loan$

    By Howard Schneider, Lindsay Dunsmuir

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve on Monday moved to bolster a new small-business lending program by allowing bank$ to turn those loan$ over to the U.$. central bank for ca$h, ea$ing concerns$ among banks about getting $tuck holding the low intere$t loan$.

    The Fed said it would announce details later this week of a new term financing arrangement for loans made under what is known as the Payroll Protection Program, part of the federal response to the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Term financing facilities have been a staple of the Fed’s crisis response, encouraging banks to make loans for a variety of purposes with the understanding that they could turn them over to the central bank, get cash and continue lending.

    The program is similar to the arrangement the U.S. government has with mortgage agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose stamp of approval on a loan makes banks more willing to lend.

    In this case the very existence of the Fed program – assuring banks they could unload the Small Business Administration loans when they want – could make the program more attractive to lenders, given the fees of up to 5% banks can earn for what now amounts to processing the paperwork.

  26. ‘New York doesn’t need any more ventilators and California is in good enough condition to send 500 ventilators to states in worse shape, their governors said on Monday, a sign that the CCP virus curve appears to be flattening in both states.

    “We don’t need any additional ventilators right now,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told reporters at a press conference after repeatedly warning in recent days that the state needed up to 40,000 of the breathing machines.’

    ‘Cuomo declined to state how many ventilators the state has in stock and his office hasn’t responded to requests for information about the state’s ventilator situation. One updated model indicated the state would need only 10,606 ventilators.’

    ‘California, meanwhile, has seen a slowdown of new cases, prompting Gov. Gavin Newsom to loan 500 ventilators to states where the spread of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as novel coronavirus, has gotten worse.’

    ‘Oregon Gov. Kate Brown sent 140 ventilators directly to New York over the weekend while Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said Sunday his state would return more than 400 ventilators it received from the Strategic National Stockpile to help states dealing with more COVID-19 cases.’

    ‘The updated model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, dropped the projected deaths from COVID-19 by some 12,000, with modelers citing data from New York, California, and other states. It also dropped the projected number of hospital beds, intensive care unit beds, and ventilators needed in many states. California will need between 432 and 1,278 ventilators during its projected peak on April 15, models predicted, while Washington will need just 165 of the machines during its peak on April 6.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/ventilator-demand-slows-in-new-york-california_3300675.html

      1. I agree Prof. But it’s gonna be a toughie keeping people inside now. They don’t seem to understand that 14-day incubation period.

        1. toughie keeping people inside now

          Particularly people working from home who are now also expected to educate their children. I expect we’ll see some push back on whether these measures are really necessary.

          1. According to the beloved model:

            Resources needed in CA on peak date of April 14, 2020:

            Beds needed 4,869 Beds available 26,654
            ICU beds needed 798 ICU beds available 1,993
            Invasive ventilators needed 678

            Resources needed in WA on peak date of April 2, 2020:

            Beds needed 972 Beds available 4,907
            ICU beds needed 185 ICU beds available 341
            Invasive ventilators needed 157

          2. That beloved model has a beloved assumption: full social distancing through the end of May. If they lift restrictions before then, that basically invalidates the model. Of course nobody looks that far. They see the curve dip to 0 at the end of April and think it’s all gone and go bar-hopping just in time for Beltane.

            If they do that, I expect a cycle of reinfection to manifest in late May. And this is first wave. We have more waves to come.

          3. If they do that, I expect a cycle of reinfection to manifest in late May. And this is first wave. We have more waves to come.

            Based on what exactly?

          4. beloved assumption leaves out the number of people processing their undocumented COVID-19 infections without any help from the gubmint, the medical system, or any earthly source.

    1. The Strategic National Stockpile is likely being sequestered to support Israel via Mossad purchases through shell companies that the CIA uses to traffic arms around the planet.

    2. I decided I wouldn’t need a ventilator when Cuomo let slip that only 20 percent of COVID-19 patients put on them have survived. And I read a NY Times article on the shape the survivors might end up in.

      https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/opinion/coronavirus-ventilators.html

      “Even before Covid-19, for those lucky enough to leave the hospital alive after suffering acute respiratory distress syndrome, recovery can take months or years. The amount of sedation needed for Covid 19 patients can cause profound complications, damaging muscles and nerves, making it hard for those who survive to walk, move or even think as well as they did before they became ill. Many spend most of their recovery time in a rehabilitation center, and older patients often never go home. They live out their days bed bound, at higher risk of recurrent infections, bed sores and trips back to the hospital.”

      “All this does not mean we shouldn’t use ventilators to try to save people. It just means we have to ask ourselves some serious questions.”

      NY State borrowed a $half billion to buy them. I probably would have wanted one before age 50. I definitely won’t want one after 75 or even 70. And I probably wouldn’t want one today.

      1. The quality of life after a period of “being on the vent” varies a good deal even among the oldest. Or, your mileage may vary.

      2. Does being on the ventilator make a patient worse off, or does being a worse off patient make a ventilator more necessary for survival? Just because patients going on the ventilator die at a higher rate does not imply that they would have been better off without one.

  27. “If rents did lower, it would be a massive relief. It’s notoriously difficult for locals to find affordable rentals in Byron Bay, as 17.6% of properties are listed as holiday accommodation. ‘Airbnb should be banned up here,’ Lipshus says. ‘The cost of living is insane. I’ve lived in all sorts of places here, and it’s not uncommon to pay at least 50% of your wage in rent.’”

    “‘A lot of people have over-leveraged themselves with these properties,’ Lipshus says. ‘The upper-middle class are probably going to be fine. But the middle class – the ones taking risks, trying to get up that class ladder – they’re going to be pretty f*cked.’”

    This is what happens when the government pick winners and losers. The regular, non-lobbyists folks take it up in the arse!

    “Nearly all those bookings evaporated. He still faces $13,400 in carrying costs for his two properties. He paid $720,000 for a home in October and $900,000 for another one that closed on March 13. His father cosigned the loans with him, he said. Mr. Reed said he has received 90 days’ forbearance on his two mortgages. The arrears will be tacked onto the end of the loan terms and he will not owe penalties or fees, Mr. Reed said.”

    DIE Speculators DIE!!!!

  28. Farmers is still farmin’, but it ain’t exactly Federal Re$erve type operating hours.

    BUSINE$$ NEW$ / APRIL 6, 2020

    Canada, U.S. farms face crop lo$$e$ due to foreign worker delay$

    Reuters / By Rod Nickel, Christopher Walljasper

    “A lot of people are missing,” he said, referring to farmworkers whose visas weren’t approved after the United States scaled back some consular activities in response to coronavirus.

    “If the farm doesn’t produce, the city doesn’t eat.”

    In Canada, where farms rely on 60,000 temporary foreign workers, their arrivals are delayed by initial border restrictions and grounded flights. Once they arrive, the federal government requires them to be isolated for 14 days with pay, unable to work.

    In the United States, nearly 250,000 foreign guest workers, mostly from Mexico, help harvest fruit and vegetables each year. The State Department is processing H-2A visas for farm workers with reduced staffing, though some companies are still having a hard time getting workers in on time.

    Dannia Sanchez, president of D & J and Sons Harvesting in Florida, is awaiting approval to bring in some 200 temporary agriculture workers, while blueberries in Florida ripen and Michigan asparagus nears harvest.

    In the United States, “delays are potentially very hazardous to farmers who were counting on that workforce to show up at an exact period of time to harvest a perishable crop,” said Dave Puglia, CEO of Western Growers Association, which represents fruit and vegetable companies in states like California and Arizona.

    (Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Manitoba and Chris Walljasper in Chicago; Editing by David Gregorio)

      1. Good point. The problem is, I have heard, most Americans aren’t physically fit enough and knowledgeable enough for agricultural work any more.

        But if enough of them tried it, some might like it. Why not target the college grads who won’t be getting jobs? You might end up with some future farmers.

        1. I worked my way through college splitting firewood on a farm. It took a month of determined effort to begin getting able. I can still do the same work, just…very…slow.

          There are a few kids not required to attend school now too. Even kids destined to become doctors and such did farm work as kids. Back when I mean, when we weren’t so much special.

          1. I can still do the same work, just…very…slow.

            Good description. Me too. But it’s fun teaching someone young and spry to do such things and being more productive than them until they finally start paying attention to the lesson I’m trying to teach them. Once you’ve done it right for a few hours over a few days you never forget how.

          2. you never forget how

            Good point. When I was 45 i went to help my 80 year old neighbor get the alfalfa hay off his field. His teenage “helpers” were not showing up for work. Catching hay bales behind the bailer (sp?). I really apologized as the last of the hundred pound bales were stacked in wagons for him having to drive the tractor so slow for me. He just laughed and smiled. I miss that old man.

          3. When I was 45 i went to help my 80 year old neighbor get the alfalfa hay off his field.

            I think I was only about 35 or so last time I did that. I was helping my 70ish father in law and instructing teenagers at the same time. He mentioned later he appreciated that I climbed up on top of the stack we were building in the barn and made the kids alternate directions in each layer so all the bales wouldn’t fall down in columns on his head during the winter like the previous season’s stack.

        2. “The problem is, I have heard, most Americans aren’t physically fit enough and knowledgeable enough for agricultural work any more.”

          The typical American cannot outwork a Mexican, they tend to feign injuries and they are prone to engage in lawsuits. Hence, productive farms with real work to be performed don’t want them.

          1. they tend to feign injuries and they are prone to engage in lawsuits.

            Right, and those are the same Americans who can’t/won’t do other, better jobs as well. But in a situation where a large portion of Americans are unemployed, some of the ones that are normally productive in other careers would also become productive in that kind of work. Of course there would be a learning and conditioning curve but they would get it done. It’s a mistake to judge all Americans by the ones who fail at everything they try.

          2. NBC recently ran a clip of some “islander guy” whimpering like a child over a lost brother, and a photo of the brother was presented. Both of ’em looked “bloated” like Manatees. You don’t look like that if you’re working somewhere; even in retail you have to walk. No, their money comes in the mail, and they’re likely not the first generation in that family either.

      2. Where I live there are plenty of Americans doing lawn care service, so it’s not a big stretch to say that Americans will do ag labor if the price is right. The end customer may have to pay a bit more for produce, but so what? We will save money on the back end with fewer DWIs.

        1. ” … not a big stretch to say that Americans will do ag labor if the price is right”

          95% can.knot, will.knot last 90 mins. (Has little to do with wages above $12.00 hr.)

          1. little to do with wages

            There are physical and mental benefits to doing actual work. I wasn’t much good at picking strawberries at 14, but Mr. Ortman paid by the quart. I got better at it.

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