thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Forbearance Is Not Forgiveness

A report from CNBC. “A broad coalition of mortgage and finance industry leaders on Saturday sent a plea to federal regulators, asking for desperately needed cash to keep the mortgage system running during the coronavirus pandemic, as requests from borrowers for the federal mortgage forbearance program are pouring in at an alarming rate. Mr. Cooper, the largest nonbank servicer in the nation, with close to 4 million mostly government-backed loans has already granted more than 80,000 forbearances, and the requests keep flooding in.”

“Jay Bray, Mr. Cooper’s CEO, helped federal regulators set up the plan. He said he was told there would be federal cash for servicers, but that part of the deal never made it to the final act. ‘It’s frankly frustrating and ridiculous that we do not have a solution in place,’ said Bray. ‘There is going to be complete chaos. We’re the largest nonbank. We have a strong balance sheet, but for the industry as a whole you’re going to start seeing problems soon.'”

“‘It’s just going to create more fear within the nonbank servicing sector. The banks that service them are going to start to not lend,’ said Bray. ‘Ultimately that impacts homeowners. They won’t be able to be served because these companies will be in the middle of a crisis. We’ve seen a lot of businesses close their doors, and if you start closing the doors of servicers you’re impacting people’s lives much more than other sectors. You’re talking about their homes. It’s the largest asset they have.'”

From USA Today. “Americans struggling to pay their mortgages because they’ve lost a job or income during the coronavirus pandemic can put off that bill for up to a year due to the CARES Act. But while the measures should be creating a feeling of relief, many borrowers have been left anxious because of confusing messages from the government and banks.”

“Some homeowners say Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Chase have told them they have to repay those postponed payments – known as forbearance – in a lump sum once three months are up. It’s an unexpected demand they fear could put them deeper in debt as millions are laid off and watching their retirement savings plunge with the stock market.”

“Anthony Adams is one of the uneasy Americans who is confused and worried about the rules. He is late on his mortgage payment to Wells Fargo after the coronavirus pandemic crimped sales at his family’s bakery in Orlando, Florida, forcing him out of a job. Wells Fargo offered Adams a 90-day deferment on his mortgage, which is backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, but the 49-year-old was surprised when Wells Fargo told him he’d still owe three months’ worth of payments – plus the current month – once that forbearance period was up. Adams declines to say what his payments are.”

“Adams says he doesn’t know what programs Wells Fargo will offer by the time he reaches day 91, and that makes him anxious because he fears slipping into foreclosure at that point. ‘I feel like I’m in this odd Catch-22,’ Adams says. ‘I can get some immediate relief from postponing a mortgage payment, but the cost of that relief will put me further into debt.'”

“Debrena Jackson-Gandy, 53, doesn’t know whether her loan is owned by her bank or serviced by it. She is the owner of Masterminds, a personal development company in Seattle. The business events she had planned for the next three months were canceled, hurting her company’s revenue and leaving her struggling to pay her mortgage, she said. Her husband has also lost income.”

“When she looked up relief options on the Bank of America website, she thought that she could add deferred payments to the end of her loan. But the bank told her she’d have to pay in a lump sum after 90 days when she called them. ‘It was really shocking,’ Jackson-Gandy says.”

The Half Moon Bay Review in California. “Forbearance is not forgiveness. Rather, homeowners who have been directly affected by COVID-19 have a 90-day grace period to defer loan payments. Some lenders will expect payments at the end of these three months, which could be extended depending on the trajectory of the pandemic, while others will tack the sum on to the end of the mortgage.”

“21 Century broker Steven Hyman, who writes a regular real estate column for the Review, said that the ‘devil’s in the details’ when it comes to repayment schemes. Homeowners should be clear about whether they will owe all deferred payments at the end of the forbearance period, Hyman said, as such an arrangement could prove a major hurdle for those who have lost jobs or substantial portions of their income amid the novel coronavirus outbreak. Clear Blue Real Estate Founder David Oliphant echoed these concerns.”

“‘At day 91, most lenders are still expecting those three (monthly) payments,’ Oliphant said. ‘That’s probably not achievable for most people.'”

The Orange County Register in California. “The Inland Empire housing market is among the nation’s least-capable of withstanding coronavirus fallout, one ranking suggests. Analysts at Attom Data Solutions graded U.S. counties for their housing market’s financial stability based on three metrics: affordability (share of local incomes needed to buy a home takes); equity (how many homeowners were ‘underwater’ — where the mortgage is larger than the home’s value); and payment-making abilities (foreclosure activity measured by filings as a share of homes, before coronavirus hit).”

“On this scorecard, Riverside County was graded with the third-lowest stability of the 50 U.S. counties with the largest populations. It’s not a cheap place to live. A $387,500 median selling price in the first quarter led to the 11th worst affordability with 61% of income required to buy. Owners are mid-range with debt-levels ranking No. 22 for underwater properties at 9.6% of all mortgaged homes. And payments were being missed ranking the county No. 11 for foreclosure activity — 0.12% of all homes.”

“San Bernardino County ranked 10th-least stable among the 50 counties. Its $335,000 median pushed it to No. 16 worst for affordability with 47.8% of pay needed to buy. The county ranked No. 26 for underwater properties — 7.7% of mortgaged homes. And No. 9 for foreclosure activity — 0.13% of homes. Los Angeles County was middle-of-the-pack at No. 25. Its $621,500 median price home ranked it ninth-worst for affordability at 64.1%. However, it was third-lowest for underwater properties at 4.5% and No. 28 for foreclosure activity at 0.07%.”

“Orange County was five rankings better than L.A. at No. 20. Its $735,000 median ranked it second-worst for affordability at 80.3% of income. On the upside, it ranked No. 41 for underwater properties (5.3%) and No. 41 for foreclosure activity (0.05%).”

“This grading of risk levels isn’t simply about high home prices. Note that the lowest risk was found in Harris County in Texas (where Houston is) with a $219,688 median and No. 42 rank for affordability among the 50 counties. Most at risk? Florida’s Broward County (think Fort Lauderdale) with a roughly national average $257,000 median and a mid-range No. 30 affordability ranking.”

The Daily Northwestern in Illinois. “When the COVID-19 pandemic began disrupting incomes, Evanston residents turned to the city for support to keep up on rent and mortgage payments. However, aldermen are saying comprehensive relief to citizens is outside the means of the city. Ald. Donald Wilson (4th) told the Daily the city did not have the legal authority nor the financial means to suspend or pay residents’ housing costs.”

“Mary Ellen Ball, CEO of fair housing not-for-profit Open Communities, said she had seen a ‘massive increase’ in the number of residents seeking relief. ‘People are terrified,’ Ball said. ‘Right now people don’t know if they will have a job, if they will make rent, if they will make a mortgage payment.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 144 Comments

    1. “Diane looks a little spooked.”

      Both of ’em have that former *tube performer look. That said, whenever the government tried to impose new regulations these ladies were saying, “the government needs to get out of the way!” Bottom line, all they really want are those commissions.

        1. Good point. With Unlimited Quantitative Easing, my impression is that the Fed can pick and choose whom to backstop, based on systemic risk (“too big to fail”) criteria.

          1. I’m sure that would never be abused to backstop friends and punish enemies. Not in the American I know and love.

          2. In 2008 the Fed was given the key to Pandora’s Box. They opened it. We’ve been seeing the results of “hope” ever since.

      1. Diane is playing her buddies book.

        If mortgage operators did not even have 1 months flow protection on lines of credit, they were in trouble

        They are trying to get govt backed lending – and will put off paying for many years.

  2. I’m going to need to post more frequently. Crater is rolling in faster than I can post it.

    2. I want to hear about the crating in Idaho, if you can. I’ve seen a lot of “back on the market” listing and then a price reduction.

  3. ‘Riverside County was graded with the third-lowest stability of the 50 U.S. counties with the largest populations. It’s not a cheap place to live. A $387,500 median selling price in the first quarter led to the 11th worst affordability with 61% of income required to buy. Owners are mid-range with debt-levels ranking No. 22 for underwater properties at 9.6% of all mortgaged homes. And payments were being missed ranking the county No. 11 for foreclosure activity’

    Probably the biggest fraud the REIC has constructed was telling the public these default and underwater numbers were “normal.”

    1. A median price of only $388k for Riverside county where the typical Homo erectus doesn’t know how many children he has fathered and proudly displays jailhouse tattoos on his face?

      2. “…doesn’t know how many children he has fathered…”

        And *his* children don’t know how many children they have….

    2. “A $387,500 median selling price in the first quarter led to the 11th worst affordability with 61% of income required to buy.”

      Plus you have to live in Riverside.

  4. ‘Adams…is late on his mortgage payment to Wells Fargo after the coronavirus pandemic crimped sales at his family’s bakery in Orlando, Florida, forcing him out of a job’

    That was fast.

    ‘Wells Fargo offered Adams a 90-day deferment on his mortgage, which is backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, but the 49-year-old was surprised when Wells Fargo told him he’d still owe three months’ worth of payments – plus the current month – once that forbearance period was up’

    Better get some boxes.

    1. but the 49-year-old was surprised when Wells Fargo told him he’d still owe three months’ worth of payments – plus the current month – once that forbearance period was up’

      Which, if I understand correctly, means that the three months is due not at the end of the loan schedule, but immediately at the end of the forbearance period, meaning this year. Yeah, better get some boxes.

          1. “Nobody gets it like they want it to be. Nobody hands you and guarantee. Nobody.”

      2. Ouch, gonna be a lot of pain coming at the end of the summer. I predict a huge spike in inventory in the fall, just at the point demand is usually at its worst.

  5. ‘The Federal National Mortgage Association, better known as Fannie Mae (FNMA), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, aka Freddie Mac (FMCC), were directed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to notify homeowners affected by the COVID-19 outbreak that they were eligible to reduce or suspend their mortgage payments for up to 12 months. Homeowners enrolled in a forbearance plan will not incur late fees.’

    ‘Once the forbearance period ends, the servicer “must” work with the borrower to develop a permanent plan to “maintain or reduce” monthly payments, “including a loan modification.”

    ‘What’s missing here is some protection for lenders and guarantors like Fannie and Freddie against massive demands for cash. These agencies, too, are short on cash.’

    https://247wallst.com/housing/2020/04/07/the-cares-act-could-pummel-fannie-mae-stock/

    1. ‘What’s missing here is some protection for lenders and guarantors like Fannie and Freddie against massive demands for cash. These agencies, too, are short on cash.’

      Cash is king.

  6. ‘While it was hard for the owners of Beauty Destination Spa n Esthetics to shut down their shops in Hamilton and Burlington, Ont., on March 15, they knew they made the right choice. Their services require close contact between professionals and clients.’

    ‘Gitu Duggal and her husband Harry Mand had staved off the risk of spreading the novel coronavirus but at great cost. After paying employees for the work they could do in March, they faced a stack of monthly bills worth more than $10,000, including rent – which they simply didn’t have the money to pay.’

    ‘At first, they hoped self-isolation measures would subside or that governments would come forward with relief packages that suited them. “We were hoping it would get better, but that doesn’t seem like it’s happening anytime soon,” Ms. Duggal says. On top of stressing over the business, she and her husband have a nine-year-old child and a mortgage to look after. “We’re very, very worried.”

    ‘Ms. Duggal says that the landlord for their Hamilton location agreed to put off charging Beauty Destination for April rent – only to require a double payment come the start of May. They haven’t heard from their Burlington landlord, despite rent being due last Wednesday. They weren’t able to pay.’

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-the-longer-we-go-the-more-we-bleed-money-entrepreneurs-on-their/

    1. they faced a stack of monthly bills worth more than $10,000, including rent

      I wonder how much the rent is? My understanding is that in the salon biz, beauticians “rent a chair” from the salon owner. Close the salon and that income goes bye-bye.

    2. “We’re very, very worried.”

      Little wonder that marriages fail so easily these days, but they willingly put themselves into this predicament.

    3. “Gitu Duggal and her husband Harry Mand…….after paying employees for the work they could do……they faced a stack of monthly bills worth more than $10,000, including rent… which they simply didn’t have the money to pay”.

      “The business events she had planned for the next three months were canceled, hurting her company’s revenue and leaving her struggling to pay her mortgage”.

      Anybody else starting to get the impression that many of these small “business owners” shouldn’t be running a small business?

      2. Anybody else starting to get the impression that many of these small “business owners” shouldn’t be running a small business?

        During a bubble lots of stuff survives and even thrives while remaining clueless to reality. If you also crush the simple honest ways of making a living at the same time you get even more of that stuff.

        1. If you also crush the simple honest ways of making a living

          I recall a discussion on this blog after the collapse of the previous bubble. Someone mentioned being at a social gathering and learning that no one else present had an honest to goodness job. Everyone was a rent seeker.

        2. There’s too much price and information discovery out there, plus access to materials and supplies from the cheapest global suppliers, for a lot very small businesses to get away with having rather high margins.

          For businesses that lack a high bar to competition entry, they’re often threading the needle to keep profitability up, but on the other hand if competition needs to be local or regional, they’re also going to want to avoid a total race to the bottom, so an equilibrium usually sets in where everyone makes enough to get by…

          .. in normal times, at least.

  8. “…had seen a ‘ma$$ive increa$e’ in the number of resident$ $eeking relief. ‘People are terrified,’ Ball said. ‘Right now people don’t know if they will have a job, if they will make rent, if they will make a mortgage payment.’”

    Jim.may “boo.yah” says : “Repre$$ion!”

    Cole.”theeman” says: “Dece$$ion!”

    🎈💰 @ end of 90 day$? … or … 🎈💰 tacked on to end of homemoaner.$helter.$hack.mortgage?

    Decision$ … decision$

  10. Press conference: WHO funding on hold for calling everything regarding coronavirus wrong and being China-centric.

    2. Nothing but a propaganda by the orange man. Orange meat for his base…..nothing else.

      1. He is right and he’s doing a good job. An amazing job considering he’s been constantly under fire from the Resistance.

  11. (Referring to a home)
    It is the largest asset they have.

    When will people learn that a home is a liability.
    Maybe once a decade It needs to be reinforced.

    1. When will people learn that a home is a liability.
      Maybe once a decade It needs to be reinforced.

      Let’s bail it out and double down each decade instead. It’s way more fun that way, plus we get to laugh at the savers.

        1. Except that is not Colorado Springs, that is Black Forest outside the city limit (El Paso County) Most of those homes are on large lots (5 Acres+) pluts this “The median home value in 80908 is $499,655. 80908 home values have gone up 4.2% over the past year”

          How is the “Cratering?” exactly? I live in Colorado Springs, prices are moving down.

          2. “Values”? Prices my good friend prices!

            Prices fell 10% and cratering fast.

            This is good news!

          4. I have to say that I have yet to see any crater in my little burg, I’ve seen a few houses in my nabe that went pending and closed before the covid panic began. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if crater showed up soon.

          5. I have to say that I have yet to see any crater in my little burg

            I haven’t seen cratering in Folsom either…YET. But what I have seen is very little being listed considering this is the peak season. And what has been listed is sitting, sometimes being reduced in price, and nothing is moving. Wile E. Coyote is hovering in mid air at the moment while the world averts their eyes.

            For me the most interesting part of this is how so many people expect things to go back to normal right away. Other than wishful thinking I can’t understand what they are basing that thought on.

          8. “Colorado Springs housing prices fell $60k. It’s right there in black and white.
            https://www.zillow.com/colorado-springs-co-80908/home-values/
            Sorry”

            No, sorry you can’t just cherry pick one small, expensive neighborhood with houses priced well above the actual city average and call it “Colorado Springs”

            Again, I’ll explain Black Forest is El Paso county, not the city of Colorado Springs. Home prices in Colorado Springs, the actual city rose 10.2% last year.

            Just cause you want a housing crash NOW doesn’t mean it is happening. Stop being so dishonest.

  12. “She thought that she could add deferred payments to the end of her loan. But the bank told her she’d have to pay in a lump sum after 90 days when she called them.”

    The rich and the financial sector got their bailout, so the they can stop pretending to give the serfs a break. Just like in 2008.

  13. China Ends Wuhan Lockdown, but Normal Life Is a Distant Dream

    NY Times April 7, 2020

    snip*
    ”Yet gloom about the local economy remains widespread. Much of China’s factory sector is suffering as the pandemic dampens overseas demand for exports. As businesses pull back their spending on equipment and offices, the effects will ripple through the rest of the economy.”

    “During the whole of February, when the epidemic was at its peak in China, not a single residential real-estate deal was made in Wuhan, neither for new properties nor for ones already built, according to government statistics.“

    1. There’s hard evidence that society can survive a month without real estate sales. Do we need to go on pretend that used home selling is an essential infrastructure industry?

  14. Why don’t lenders just add missed mortgage payments to the remaining monthly payment schedule, starting when loan payback is resumed?

    1. Because the bond holders who own the money that the lender turned into mortgages would like their yield payment.

        1. Nobody put guns to their heads and forced them to gamble in subprime mortgage bonds.

        1. Or a landlord. Or a lender who made loans to help landlords build up their real estate investment HODLings.

          Coronavirus: California courts halt all lender foreclosures, renter evictions
          Judicial Council’s freeze is good for 90 days past the end of the state of emergency.
          Michael Goulding, The Orange County Register
          By Jonathan Lansner | Orange County Register
          PUBLISHED: April 6, 2020 at 7:55 p.m. | UPDATED: April 7, 2020 at 1:46 p.m.

          Almost all California foreclosures and evictions have been put on hold for the foreseeable future.

          The state’s Judicial Council on Monday, April 6 issued emergency orders that stop lenders’ efforts to foreclosure on mortgages and landlords’ ability to evict tenants — except in cases where public health or safety are involved.

          The Judicial Council is the rule-making arm of the California court system. These actions are its way of implementing various mandates from Gov. Gavin Newsom attempting to limit the spread of coronavirus and mitigate the economic impacts of business shutdowns.

          The governor’s edicts, which include stiff limitations on lender foreclosures and tenant evictions, have been criticized by some in the housing industry as putting investment property owners and banks at financial risk.

          “Many see these eviction moratoriums as carte blanche for not paying rent for any reason,” Daniel Yukelson, the apartment association’s executive director, said April 4. “While nobody wants to see anyone that is truly impacted by the virus put out on the streets, the entire burden for housing people in our communities cannot merely be forced upon the backs of private citizens.”

          The council’s moves are a way to offer housing protections as well as minimize the court’s own workload as it tries to operate within “stay at home” mandates and “social distancing” rules.

          “We are at this point truly with no guidance in history, law or precedent,” said Chief Justice Tani Cantil-Sakauye, chair of the council, in a statement. “And to say that there is no playbook is a gross understatement of the situation. In developing these rules, we listened to suggestions from our justice system partners, the public, and the courts, and we greatly appreciate all of the input.

          “Working with our court stakeholders, I’m confident we can preserve the rule of law and protect the rights of victims, the accused, litigants, families and children, and all who seek justice. It’s truly a team effort,” Cantil-Sakauye wrote.
          …

          1. From Wiki:
            Upon graduation from law school in 1984, Cantil was unable to find a job in law, so she became a blackjack dealer in Reno, Nevada.

            “We are at this point truly with no guidance in history, law or precedent”

            Communists like “Chief Justice” Tani Cantil-Sakauye and her fellow comrades running roughshod over California property owners (landlords) and ignoring things like established property law in an attempt to backstop the Governor unlawful “edicts” shows one how far down the rabbit hole this formerly beautiful state has truly fallen.

            I lived there for over 30 years and I still mourn the loss of what it once was.

          2. I lived there for over 30 years and I still mourn the loss of what it once was.

            As a former resident of the Golden State I feel the same way.

            I know a young couple that moved there 3 years ago. They moved back a few weeks ago, basically because they found it to be a disaster.

          3. Almost all California foreclosures and evictions have been put on hold for the foreseeable future.

            So basically all the smart money is going to stop paying now. No wonder my landlord was so happy to hear from me on the 1st.

      3. …and CDOs don’t exist like they did in the ‘aughts. Bond insurance is expensive and plenty don’t go for it anymore now that the they know the FED has their “back”.

    2. Because they have bills, too. Would you want somebody to tell you they’ll pay you back in 30 years for services rendered today?

        1. +1 That’s right. No income insurance or savings.
          ***
          Q: “Can we just live in the moment?”
          A: “Sure, just vote for Joe (dementia?) Biden.”

  15. LA doctor seeing success with hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19

    By ABC7.com staff
    Tuesday, April 7, 2020 1:03AM

    “Every patient I’ve prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free,” Cardillo told Eyewitness News. “So clinically I am seeing a resolution.”

    “We have to be cautious and mindful that we don’t prescribe it for patients who have COVID who are well,” Cardillo said. “It should be reserved for people who are really sick, in the hospital or at home very sick, who need that medication. Otherwise we’re going to blow through our supply for patients that take it regularly for other disease processes.”

    https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-drug-covid-19-malaria-hydroxychloroquine/6079864/

    1. my husband

      This stay at home thing causes many who pass like ships in the night to get to know each other!

      1. “This stay at home thing causes many who pass like ships in the night to get to know each other!”

        In some cases they wish they hadn’t.

        Global Lockdowns Resulting In ‘Horrifying Surge’ In Domestic Violence, U.N. Warns

        April 6, 20204:36 AM ET

        Domestic violence rates have surged in France and South Africa, according to Voice of America. In South Africa, authorities said there were nearly 90,000 reports of violence against women in the first week of a lockdown.

        In Australia — where the government has promised some $91 million to address the problem as part of its COVID-19 response plan — Google reports a 75% increase in online searches for help with domestic violence.

        Meanwhile, in Turkey, activists say the killing of women has risen sharply since a stay-at-home order was issued on March 11.

        https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/06/827908402/global-lockdowns-resulting-in-horrifying-surge-in-domestic-violence-u-n-warns

  17. Just recieved an email from mes friend&neighbor: his cousin, John Prine will knot being play “live” … Evers again.

    📣🎙: “it’s the common.cold folks! 👾 by Ra$h limpbaugh$

      1. a hard way to go.

        Thank you for that john.

        This three score and ten business, it’s a tough racket.

        When my dear grandmother was 100 and something, she said to me “Malcolm, everyone I’ve ever know has already gone.”

        1. I heard the same from my mom’s mom in her later years. Having longevity in your genes is a blessing and a curse.

    3. So many musicians are succumbing to the virus.

      And speaking of musicians’ relatives, if we both survive the Stay at Home order, I soon need to make the effort of introducing myself to a blood relative of Mr. Henry John Deutschendorf Jr. who lives nearby.

    2. *want to guess where it’s going? 🙂

      I don’t have a guess. Where do you think?

        1. Jared Kushner forwards it to a shell company for transportation.

          I sure hope that’s not the case. It would be grounds for execution in my opinion.

    3. Where it makes someone in the ‘right place at the right time’ the most personal profit??

      1. A dozen large eggs used to be $1.39. When the stocking up frenzy started they were sold out, then one to a customer for a week. Then they were $3.40 and buy as many as you want. Yesterday I bought a doz for 99c.

        I was looking for a few things on Amazon last night. The price gouging is amazing.

        2. Plenty of paper products, but fewer brands to select from at Walmart this morning. Cleaning supplies aisle still lacking.

          1. Still haven’t been able to buy flour. Lettuce is spotty. Butter is spotty, rice is spotty. TP shelves still bare. Ditto on the cleaning supplies/hand sanitizer/rubbing alcohol – none to speak of.

  22. We don’t seem to have run out of stock market doomsters, just yet. What is it about Unlimited Quantitative Easing that they fail to grasp?
    (Or am I the one missing it?!)

      1. “A self-described “realistic optimist,” Chambers is looking at the crisis through the lens as a businessman who has navigated through several financial downturns and as the son of two doctors.”

        The guy certainly won the genetic lotto.

    3. “What is it about Unlimited Quantitative Ea$ing that they fail to grasp?”

      (Or am I the one missing it?!)

      Iffin’ ya don’t have the burning$ itch to $pends big buck$ fer lobbyi$t’$, then it i$ probably of little effect$ to you dear Professor.

      POLITIC$
      Trumpy’$ ally Tom Barrack hire$ lobbyist$ for coronaviru$-related i$$ues as he warn$ of hurdle$ for the commercial mortgage market

      PUBLISHED TUE, APR 7 2020
      By Brian Schwartz

      One of President Donald Trump’s clo$est allie$ hired a top lobbying firm to advi$e on challenge$ related to the coronaviru$ pandemic.

      Colony Capital, a real e$tate inve$tment firm run by Tom Barrack, recently hired lobbyists from Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck to focus on “issues related to COVID-19 relief packages,” according to a lobbying disclosure report first reviewed by CNBC.

      Those listed on the form as lobbyists for Barrack and his company have extensive knowledge of government regulations.

      Barrack said in his post that high-performing mortgage loans were in the process of a “meltdown” and they were on the “brink of collapse” due to the impact of the virus. Barrack’s company is known as a real estate investment trust and would be involved with these types of loans.

      Barrack made what he called “suggestions” to the Trump administration, Congress and other government entities for how to solve this problem. One way, Barrack said at the time, was to “encourage Congress to provide an amount up to $500 billion to the Secretary of the Treasury to support programs or facilities for the purpose of providing liquidity to the financial system” he wrote. The Colony Capital CEO said in an interview Monday that he wasn’t too optimistic about his chances of seeing aid being given to the commercial mortgage market if there is another round of economic stimulus.

      “We’re fighting politics,” he told Bloomberg News. “In an election year, nobody wants to be viewed as bailing out over-leveraged industries — even if that’s not what is happening.”

      (Left.over$, from Trumpy’$ $wap.draining’$!)

      The lobbyi$t$ helping Barrack have exten$ive experience in the regulatory field.

      Marc Lampkin, a partner at Brownstein, was once an advisor to Republican former House Speaker John Boehner, while Travis Norton previously served as staff director of the Senate Banking Committee, tax counsel to Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and the general counsel of the House Financial Services Committee. The group of lobbyists assisting Colony Capital also includes Norman Brownstein, a founding member of the firm, who has worked closely with House Ways and Means Committee members, Senate Finance Committee members and those on the Joint Committee on Taxation.

      A representative for Colony and all the advisor$ listed on the regi$tration form did not return a reque$t for comment$.

      $ad.

    4. We don’t seem to have run out of stock market doomsters, just yet. What is it about Unlimited Quantitative Easing that they fail to grasp?

      I guess I’m a doomster. You make a good point. I just don’t see how they can restore faith instantly after what just happened? But I’ll probably be wrong…again.

  23. Eight+ more weeks of house arrest ahead? Yegads!

    ‘A reality check on the math’: What’s ahead for California and Covid-19
    California has fared better than New York, but residents should expect to stay indoors at least until June, a public health expert tells the Guardian
    Sam Levin in Los Angeles
    Tue 7 Apr 2020 19.44 EDT
    Last modified on Tue 7 Apr 2020 20.39 EDT
    A family wearing face masks enter the subway at the Pershing Square metro station amid the coronavirus pandemic in Los Angeles.
    Photograph: Étienne Laurent/EPA

    California officials this week described a “slow and steady increase” in confirmed coronavirus infections, predicting that the peak of the state’s outbreak will occur in mid to late May.

    California has recorded more than 370 deaths due to Covid-19 and 15,800 confirmed cases, nowhere near as bad as the surge ravaging New York.

    Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine, explained what was behind the state’s projections – and what Californians can expect next. This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.

    Earlier projections estimated California would see its peak in mid-April. Why do state officials now believe the peak will occur in mid to late May?

    It’s a guess. California has been under statewide social distancing for three weeks. Social distancing works, but it takes a while to bite. A whole bunch of exposures take five to seven days to work out. And transmissions kept happening, for example every time there were weekends when people disregarded the order.

    So you have to do a reality check on the math. We’re still seeing increasing numbers statewide every day, so we can’t predict that it’s going to end a week from now. There’s also a desire not to call the peak too soon and potentially give people false hope. This is managing expectations.
    …

    1. Number of recovered California cases = 307

      Number of fatal California cases = 374

      Number of resolved California cases = 307 + 374 = 681

      California death rate out of resolved cases = 374 / 681 = 55%

      But not to worry: It’s a small, unrepresentative sample.

      1. Local hospitals in California still have limited testing capabilities. Even now only the sickest of the sick are getting tested. We have absolutely no idea how many people have the virus but are exhibiting lesser (or no) symptoms.

        1. We have absolutely no idea how many people have the virus but are exhibiting lesser (or no) symptoms. Hear, hear!

      2. a longer curve

        But with less area under the curve, or so we are promised.

        With a strong CD bias towards the C-virus, I suspect that will not be the case.

    3. “California has recorded more than 370 deaths due to Covid-19 and 15,800 confirmed cases, nowhere near as bad as the surge ravaging New York.”

      Very important omissions:

      1) New York has tested far more individuals.

      2) Only those who are tested are counted in the official statistics.

      1. 2) Only those who are tested are counted in the official statistics.

        This is apparently not the case. The doctors judgement is the bottom line, with or without “tests”. The CDC’s Vital Statistics Reporting Guidance Report No 3 April 2020 indicates that if the symptoms or progression of the patient’s disease seems related to COVID-19 then that is the bottom line, especially keeping in mind that there is currently a COVID-19 epidemic in making this judgement.

        Seems like a self reinforcing statistic to me.

    4. Our fearless governor has extended it out to the end of the month.

      In an online town hall he said the following:

      “Gov. Jared Polis took a hopeful, if cautious, look forward Tuesday night at a world in which COVID-19 is no longer a raging force that is occupying the minds and psyches of almost everyone in Colorado.”
      …
      “We’re going to bounce back. This is temporary — our natural assets, our incredible state, world-class tourism opportunities — there will be a day we’re able once again to embrace tourists from around the world.”
      …
      But he cautioned that a resurgence to business as usual in Colorado won’t happen all at once, but likely in phases, and that state officials will need to remain “wary of large gatherings” for a while yet.
      …
      Some reopened eateries might have to start out at half capacity, Polis said.

    5. So you have to do a reality check on the math. The reality is, without vastly increased ability to test people with or without symptoms, all these models and predictions are worthless. That’s my reality check, and I’m sticking to it.

      1. all these models and predictions are worthless

        +1 And to the extent that they are being used to justify our stay-at-home orders my patience/tolerance is wearing thin.

  24. Media
    Published 15 mins ago
    China expert: ‘I don’t know why anyone takes China’s epidemic numbers seriously’
    By Victor Garcia | Fox News
    Mainstream media echoing Chinese talking points on coronavirus crisis?
    Steven Mosher, author of ‘Bully of Asia,’ explains why Americans shouldn’t trust China on COVID-19 cases.

    Steven Mosher, author of “Bully of Asia,” joined “The Ingraham Angle” Tuesday to discuss China’s alleged coronavirus disinformation campaign and the numbers they are providing of cases and deaths.

    “I don’t know why anyone takes China’s epidemic numbers seriously. The Chinese authorities have lied from the beginning of this outbreak. They don’t just fudge the numbers. They make them up out of whole cloth,” Mosher said. “You know, in Wuhan they tell us that from the beginning to the end of the epidemic in Wuhan, it’s not over yet by the way, that 2,535 died. Well, I think the number is more like 50,000. And let me tell you how I get that number. I get that number because the crematory ovens were going for 60 days and we estimate they were disposing of about a thousand corpses a day. That’s 60 thousand people.”
    …

  25. It sux to be a highly-leveraged luxury property owner when prices are cratering.

    The Financial Times
    Property sector
    New York luxury towers quake as coronavirus hits property market
    Highly leveraged developers struggle to sell units that can be priced above $50m
    Several New York luxury developments are behind schedule because of the complexity of constructing a new generation of ‘super tall’ towers
    © Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty
    Joshua Chaffin in New York an hour ago

    Frances Katzen, one of New York’s top luxury property brokers, had made a brisk start to the year. Then, coronavirus struck.

    Within weeks, Ms Katzen saw $80m in sales evaporate as the pandemic put the city on lockdown. She has since regained some of those, including a $20m deal for a downtown penthouse that closed last week. But most buyers have fled.

    “The sky has fallen,” said Ms Katzen, a residential broker at real estate agent Douglas Elliman. “We’re there.”

    For New York developers, the dread is that a prolonged pandemic shutdown will not only scare away potential buyers but also prompt those who have already agreed deals — but not yet closed — to walk away. That, in turn, could cause lenders to seek recourse as developers fall behind sales milestones spelt out in their loan agreements.

    “There’s going to be a world of pain,” one New York developer predicted.
    …

  26. Cash.

    The Financial Times
    Currencies
    Companies scrap currency hedges as they seek to preserve cash
    Virus shutdowns have brought revenues to a halt, prompting groups to cancel contracts
    Eva Szalay in London 2 hours ago

    As their revenues collapse under the weight of coronavirus, companies are scraping together what funds they can, including by cashing in currency hedges.

    Before the virus hit, many companies had taken out protection against big swings in exchange rates by entering into contracts with banks. For UK exporters, that meant shielding themselves against losses from a rally in sterling; for importers, the opposite.

    But now that revenues for some companies have come to a sudden stop, they are unwinding those hedging agreements, like cash-strapped shoppers hunting for coins down the back of the sofa.

    “There was a general desire to build up liquidity on the balance sheet as much as possible, so many chose to terminate or restructure their FX hedging portfolios, taking out as much cash as possible,” said Amol Dhargalkar, managing director at financial consultancy Chatham Financial.

    One company that has taken this step is JN Wines, which supplies 2,000 restaurants and hotels in the UK and Ireland. “The bars and hotels are all closed. We are selling wine online — we won’t get new stock in until we have more certainty,” said James Nicholson, the company’s founder, from his base in Crossgar, Northern Ireland. Mr Nicholson has put on hold about 10 shipments of wine from the US, Australia and New Zealand.
    …

  27. Have you enjoyed the tsunami waves of liquidity swamping the stock market as of late?

    In One Chart
    Biggest stock-market price swings since 1929 make for tough trading environment
    Published: April 7, 2020 at 7:57 p.m. ET
    By William Watts
    S&P 500 index sees average daily price change of up or down 4.8% over last 5 weeks: Bespoke
    It’s been a rattling ride.
    Getty Images

    Stock market investors aren’t imagining it, this is a tough trading environment.

    Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group, as illustrated in the tweet below, noted Tuesday that the S&P 500 index’s (SPX, -0.16%) average absolute daily percentage change over the past five weeks has been plus or minus 4.8% — a historic achievement.

    “That’s higher than we saw at the height of the financial crisis, after the 1987 crash, and in the late stages of the Great Depression. The only time the S&P’s average daily move over a five-week period was greater was after the Crash of 1929,” the analysts said in a note that described the current round of volatility as “epic.”
    …

  28. Need to Know
    Why one fund manager sees a wealth bubble putting the property and stock market at risk
    Published: April 8, 2020 at 7:23 a.m. ET
    By Steve Goldstein
    Passengers wearing face masks and rain coats to protect against the spread of coronavirus walk by Hankou train station after the resumption of train services in Wuhan in central China’s Hubei province, April 8, 2020. Associated Press

    It was more a terrible than a turnaround Tuesday, after the stock market burped up early gains. Up as much as 4.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average US:DJIA ended 0.1% lower.

    There isn’t data available yet, but the 20% downturn for the S&P 500 US:SPX in the first quarter will put a big dent in household wealth when that data gets published by the Federal Reserve in June.

    Niels Jensen, the founder and chief investment officer of London-based investment adviser Absolute Return Partners, said in a monthly letter to investors that wealth has been running too far ahead of the underlying economy for some time.

    In the fourth quarter, household net worth to gross domestic product was a record 545%. “If you have followed my writings for a while, you’ll be aware that total wealth in society cannot grow faster than nominal GDP over the long term, and that every country has a well-defined mean value in terms of the wealth-to-GDP ratio. In the U.S., that mean value is 380%. In other words, when the actual wealth-to-GDP ratio deviates too much from 380%, you know that the ratio will mean revert at some point. You just don’t know when,” he said.

    Property and equities are the two asset classes most exposed to a decline in wealth, he said.

    Jensen acknowledged that you can’t just sit out a bubble. “One lesson I learned in the late 1980s, when Japanese equities were defying all logic for years, was the need to participate in the rally regardless, even if valuations were ridiculous. Clients demanded it, and the boss expected it,” he said. But he says it was “suicidal” not to protect for the downside via put options for when the wheels eventually come off.
    …

    1. The news is certain to drive a rally on Wall Street today, because…green shoots!

      1. The Financial Times
        Eurozone economy
        Eurozone’s two biggest economies sink into historic recessions
        Years of growth wiped out in months in Germany and France, with forecasts for steepest declines

        A social worker delivers food, toys and hygiene products to poor families in the Hellersdorf suburb of Berlin, Germany
        © AP
        Martin Arnold in Frankfurt and David Keohane in Paris 4 hours ago

        The German and French economies are in the grip of historic recessions which are set to wipe out many years of growth in only a few months, according to forecasts published on Wedneday as leading bodies warned of the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the global economy and trade.

        Germany’s economy will shrink by almost 10 per cent in the three months to June, according to the country’s top economic research institutes — the sharpest decline since quarterly national accounts began in 1970 and double the size of the biggest drop in the 2008 financial crisis.

        Meanwhile, the shutdown of vast swaths of economic activity to contain the spread of the pandemic is knocking 1.5 percentage points off French growth for every two weeks that it continues, the Banque de France warned on Wednesday. After more than three weeks in lockdown, French economic output is expected to have fallen by the sharpest rate since the second world war, the central bank said, forecasting that gross domestic product contracted 6 per cent in the first three months of the year.
        …

  30. She deserves a spot in one of those Trump election night videos.

    April 7 2020

    A “registered nurse” on Twitter threatened to potential withhold treatment from a Trump supporter, amid the coronavirus, over a tweet where the man wore a red face mask embroidered with the phrase “Trump 2020.”

    The Twitter user, going by the handle @naplesalleycat, who describes themself as a Registered Nurse Practitioner and uses multiple left-wing hashtags in her Twitter bio, wrote: “I’ll see you in ER. Please wear your mask so when we have to decide who gets the vent, it’ll be easier. Thanks”

    The nurse, also going by the name Erika Waters, was responding to a tweet from the face-mask-clad Trump supporter who tweeted: “My wife sewed this face mask today to protect me from the Wuhan virus and show support for president Trump.”

    Melissa
    @mhealananda

    More people are likely to die under your care than anything else. Medical homicide via negligence is the third leading cause of death in the United States. You’ve now shown the world why that is.

    https://nationalfile.com/report-nurse-threatens-to-refuse-treatment-to-man-over-trump-2020-face-mask/

      2. “On the morning of her final day of treatment, a pharmacy technician prepared the intravenous bag, filling it with more than 20 times the recommended dose of sodium chloride. Within hours Emily was on life support and declared brain dead.”

        The unemployed pharmacy tech: “Hello Real Estate!”

    2. https://www.newyorkupstate.com/coronavirus/2020/03/buffalo-hospital-exec-fired-for-anti-trump-coronavirus-comments-on-facebook-report.html

      A top executive at a Western New York hospital has been fired for comments criticizing President Donald Trump and his supporters on Facebook.

      The Buffalo News reports a spokeswoman for the Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center in Buffalo confirmed Saturday that Laura Krolczyk, Roswell Park’s vice president for external affairs, has been fired after an investigation into remarks she made about Trump and the coronavirus pandemic.

      The Hauptman Woodward Medical Research Institute, also in Buffalo, told the newspaper that it placed Lisa LaTrovato, its director of development, on leave for her comments exchanged with Krolczyk on Facebook.

      “Trump supporters need to pledge to give up their ventilators for someone else … and not go to the hospital,” Krolczyk wrote on Facebook, according to screenshots posted online.

      “I think they should be the only ones in packed churches on Sunday,” LaTrovato responded.

      The comments were in response to an article about the Trump administration balking at paying General Motors $1 billion to produce ventilators.

      “Wow, just wow, so your saying we decide who lives and dies based on political views? Great plan,” another Facebook user wrote with a thumbs up emoji.

      “That’s literally what he’s saying. Take your ‘wow’ and comprehend what your hero is saying,” Krolczyk replied. “Your hero is saying YOU don’t need a ventilator. So don’t take one.”

      “Also don’t cash your stimulus check. It’s all a hoax. Chew some ibuprofen and be on with your day,” Krolczyk added.

      According to the Buffalo News, the politically charged comments went viral Friday when Republican operative Michael Caputo shared a screenshot on Twitter.

      “Is it your public health policy to assure Trump voters are infected with COVID?” Caputo tweeted, urging his 37,000 followers to call the two medical institutions and complain.

      The Buffalo News reports Krolczyk and LaTrovato both previously worked for Democratic politicians. Krolczyk worked for Hillary Clinton and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), and LaTrovato worked for the late Rep. Louise Slaughter.

  32. In spite of the fact that 40 percent of the population was low on vitamin D, with the elderly and darker skin people being at risk, racism is the new spin from the MSN.

    1. And also in spite of demographically higher numbers for hypertension and diabetes, which are apparently risk factors.

    2. It’s always, “po’ folks can’t afford good food,” until some independent thinker reminds everyone that healthy cooking at home only costs about 30% of the preservative laden packaged foods. Is personal responsibility too much to digest?

    1. Where do you put the blame for the health industry not pushing healthy lifestyle to combat poor health and high risk.?

      It was all about pushing the magic pill. I thought the medical Cartel was nuts when they said eggs were bad and the Sun was bad Also, the pushing of all the depression meds for life stress.
      That industry wants about 12k a year per head and it’s breaking the back of the USA.

      Right now the nurses and Doctors are heros for treating people at their own risk, and they should get the best equipment first.

      I can just see a big movement for a Commie health care system when that wasn’t what was wrong with the system.

      1. That industry wants about 12k a year per head

        This year. They also want 20% profit growth every year so it’s not going to stay at that number for long. Yes, this is the reason that I’m ok with a public utility health system even though I don’t like socialism in general. But there are a few things such as this and electricity and gas where it makes sense. Competition can’t solve the problem when it only makes sense to get what you need from one place. But it has to be very regulated.

      2. Where do you put the blame for the health industry not pushing healthy lifestyle We try. I must have told 1000s of patient to abstain from all use of tobacco. Only one ever did, to my certain knowledge.

          1. The medical system is not sustainable. You had a virus and the medical system wasn’t prepared either. The bail out to medical and States will be high In spite of high State taxes and high medical insurance costs.

            Is this any different than the 2008 bail out!

          2. “The medical system is not sustainable.”

            The medical system is the “third rail” of politics.

Comments are closed.