thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

This Is What A Market Not Frenzied Looks Like

A report from the Daily Mail on New York. “A luxury New York skyscraper with apartments priced at as much as $59 million could be left empty as the coronavirus lockdown halts the construction industry. It is feared the slowdown could see buyers pull out of agreed deals that are yet to be closed. One of the projects at risk of seeing a decline in interest is the 91-story, 1,420 feet high, 111 West 57th Street, which reaches around a quarter of a mile into the sky.”

“According to the Financial Times, many deals include an ‘outside date which allows buyers to walk away if a building is not complete by the deadline. Kevin Maloney of Property Markets Group, which is one of 111 West 57th’s developers, said any luxury site in the city is ‘frozen’ due to the pandemic crisis. He told the Financial Times: ‘Just about any luxury condo in New York, whether it’s complete or almost complete or partly complete, it’s in the same boat right now: it’s frozen. There’s going to be a bunch of failed projects throughout New York.'”

The Pensacola News Journal in Florida. “The Santa Rosa County homebuilding industry, which has enjoyed a boom in recent years, is preparing for an uncertain future as economic consequences loom from the coronavirus pandemic. ‘Each month there’s going to be a slight adjustment, but there’s no doubt that there’s going to be pressure on home prices,’ said Keith Furrow, a broker and a builder and partner in Gulf Coast Dream Homes.”

The Wall Street Journal. “A top U.S. housing-market regulator said he isn’t likely to heed mortgage companies’ calls to help ease the cash-flow crunch they are expecting when Americans who lose their jobs stop making mortgage payments. Mark Calabria, who leads the Federal Housing Finance Agency, described industry concerns as ‘spin.’ In an interview on Tuesday, he also said he doesn’t see it as the role of government-backed housing-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which he oversees, to help the mortgage companies.”

“‘I’ve seen zero [evidence] to suggest that there’s a systemic crisis across the nonbank servicers,’ Mr. Calabria said. ‘If this goes on for a year, maybe. But I think the frustration here is a lot of just misrepresentation.'”

“Mortgage companies, such as Mr. Cooper Group Inc. and Quicken Loans Inc., collect payments from homeowners and pass them on to investors who hold securities issued by Fannie and Freddie. The mortgage companies are on the hook to continue payments to investors even if homeowners fall behind. The companies are eventually reimbursed by Fannie and Freddie, but the process could take several months.”

“Mr. Calabria said his agency isn’t seeing the alarming levels of forbearance requests estimated by some industry groups, which have suggested that up to 25% or more of borrowers would seek payment relief. At present, the figure is closer to 2% for Fannie and Freddie borrowers, he said, citing industry statistics through April 1. Mr. Calabria said his job is to ensure the safety and soundness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-backed entities that are pillars of the $10 trillion housing market.”

“The role Fannie and Freddie play in a downturn is ‘not to bail out people in the industry,’ he said. ‘Their countercyclical role is to provide mortgage credit, and I see no evidence that that is not happening.’ Mr. Calabria said his push to return Fannie and Freddie to private ownership wasn’t a factor in deciding whether or not to help mortgage servicers. ‘I’m trying to preserve their safety and soundness,’ he said of Fannie and Freddie. ‘They simply don’t have the capital to do this.'”

From NPR. “‘Everyone’s scared,’ says Brad Twiss, a real estate agent in Portland, Ore. He says some people he sold houses to can’t get through to their lenders on the phone after waiting on hold for hours. Those who do, he says, ‘are hearing drastically different things from every individual lender.’ And some are being told they have to make one of these big balloon payments to catch up at the end of the forbearance.”

“‘It is evolving so quickly,’ Twiss says. ‘Every hour, even some big banks, the website will change about what the guidance is. … Everyone is just, their hair is on fire.'”

From Curbed Detroit in Michigan. “Cailan and Holly Harper moved from Detroit for work last year and needed to sell their home in Corktown. In late February, the couple signed a purchase agreement. Originally, they were hoping for a mid- to late-March closing, but the buyer wanted to get a construction loan to do some extra renovations and they had to move it back a month. Still, everything seemed to be on track. Then coronavirus hit. Then the buyer stopped returning their messages. Then they found out that the buyer’s financing fell through—the deal was off.”

“‘It was frustrating, but we can’t really blame the buyer. It was out of their control,’ Cailan Harper says. ‘But it leaves us in a bit of a pinch, too. We were relying on this income coming in.’ ‘It was a gut punch,’ Holly Harper adds. ‘It’s stretching us to have two households like this.'”

From CBS Denver in Colorado. “‘March-April is really our highest inventory and really our craziest time of the year and so we’re going to have an artificial peak, I hope, as soon as this is over,’ said Matthew Leprino, spokesperson for the Colorado Association of REALTORS. While Leprino is constantly analyzing market trends, it’s been tough to sell even his own home. ‘It was the first day on the market it was under contract everything was ready to go and after a month or so, unfortunately the individual’s assets changed and they could no longer qualify for their loan and so they had to terminate.'”

“It’s something he is seeing more and more of. Mortgage lenders pressing the pause button. This he says, is one of many things contributing to a decline in closings.

The Puget Sound Business Journal in Washington. “The number of homes for sale in the metro Puget Sound region last month was 31 percent below what they were a year ago and pending sales were down 13 percent. But median sale prices were up by as much as 13 percent. Yet none of these numbers say much about the market, which was temporarily ground to a halt by COVID-19. As Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner said, data that the Northwest Multiple Listing Service put out Monday are ‘essentially irrelevant given the fact that the economy went into free fall during the month.'”

“The luxury market is suffering with lenders pulling back. John Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle, said one lender pulled funding on approved jumbo loans only days from closing, leaving buyers unable to perform. ‘The luxury market has had a distinct drop in showing traffic as compared to other price ranges,’ Deely said.”

“This is what a market not frenzied looks like. Buyers face less competition and less urgency. ‘It also means sellers, for the first time in a long time, don’t have instantaneous offers and must exercise patience, too,’ said Dick Beeson, managing broker at Re/Max Northwest Realtors in Gig Harbor in Pierce County.”

From KLAS in Nevada. “Southern Nevada home prices set a new record in March, but the number of sales shrank. However, as the coronavirus hit, the number of canceled deals doubled from a year ago. The report notes there were 2,542 cancellations in March. ‘As much as these numbers appear to be a surprise, it goes to show you that the impact on our housing market and economy may trail by a month or two,’ said 2020 LVR President Tom Blanchard.”

From Los Altos Online in California. “Throughout the nearly 20 years Nicholas French has worked as a Silicon Valley realtor, strangers inquiring about his profession have consistently proclaimed how fortunate he is to possess such a potentially lucrative one. That all changed during the Great Recession. ‘The look on people’s faces was like I had leprosy,’ said French, a broker associate with Sereno Group, recalling the 2008 crash. ‘Everybody was like, ‘How are you doing? Oh my God. Are you getting through this?'”

“After more than a 10-year absence, those looks – and concerned phone calls from well-wishers – have returned with the coronavirus pandemic. Some deals are being renegotiated and others are falling through as nervous buyers back out. French estimates more than 80% of those he represents are waiting until the lockdown ends before making a move. It’s a strategy that could potentially play out well for them.”

“‘I think this is going to be one of the best opportunities to be a buyer that we’ve seen in a decade – since the financial crash,’ he said. ‘And you know why it’s going to be such a great time? Because of lack of competition.'”

The Long Beach Post in California. “The pandemic we are experiencing has cut the blinders off of what were once hardcore ‘truths.’ We will no longer live in a land of plenty, where there is neither a never-ending supply of tenants, nor a never-ending supply of jobs for those who want them. That reality no longer exists. Most fools in 1992 thought they would get the same rent as before. A costly mistake. In real estate when you overprice a listing, you end up following the market downward. Eventually, everyone wonders why the price keeps dropping as if there were something wrong with the place. It becomes a dead listing and the lack of income becomes a noose around your neck.”

“You will have to look for new tenants and your lower rent significantly. You will have to lower your rental standards just to get tenants. There will be a glut of units on the market as people don’t get their jobs back and move. If you had negotiated with your tenant and came out with an agreement you both were happy with, those costs would be saved. How many months of rent (lowered) would it take you to catch up financially? You never could.”

“My point is simple. If you do not listen to reason in this time of trouble you will lose. With no money to pay your mortgages, taxes, etc., your property will be foreclosed either by the bank or by the state. In conclusion, everyone has a vested interest in making negotiations regarding rent, and you had better start by being polite. If you have sent a letter out already then write another one dismissing the previous one. Yes, you own the land, but without the tenant, you will not own it for long.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 167 Comments

  1. This was posted in the previous thread:

    ‘The third-leading cause of death in US most doctors don’t want you to know about’

    PUBLISHED THU, FEB 22 2018
    Ray Sipherd, special to CNBC.com

    ‘A recent Johns Hopkins study claims more than 250,000 people in the U.S. die every year from medical errors. Other reports claim the numbers to be as high as 440,000.’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

    This is every year. WTF are we doing to ourselves?

      1. ‘With spring in full swing, the San Joaquin Valley is heading into harvest season. But, the first major crop to grow this season, asparagus, has already been stunted by the coronavirus. “It landed right at the start of the season. I mean, right now, with the weather coming out like (on Tuesday), the asparagus would be growing vigorously,” said Tony Noceti.

        ‘Noceti is the host of Stockton’s Asparagus Festival. The weekend after next, April 17 to 19, would have marked the 35th annual Asparagus Festival. But for the public’s safety, Noceti pulled the plug. “It’s unfortunate that it hit at this time,” he said. “With the vendors, and the nonprofit groups and the agriculture, the farmers, all of us are stuck in the middle of this thing.”

        ‘Farms like Klein Family Farms are feeling the impact of the coronavirus too. The Stockton farm is the main asparagus grower in San Joaquin County. Normally at this time of the year, the farm would be in the middle of harvest. Instead, owner Jeff Klein decided to stop production before it even began. He made the call when the Bay Area issued its stay-at-home order since the farm supplies many farmers’ markets and restaurants through San Francisco. He said this means a substantial loss for his farm, but more importantly, he said he is concerned about the people who are now going to be unemployed. Since he called off production, he could not hire the 150 people he normally employs on the farm.’

        ‘The impact is not just being felt by seasonal harvests, but year-round production like dairy farms too. “It’s been severe. This is the largest price drop in our history,” said Anja Raudabaugh. Raudabaugh is the CEO of Western United Dairies. The organization represents about 700 dairy farms in San Joaquin County. Raudabaugh said they are looking at a 50% loss on the markets for dairy farms.’

        “We’re dealing with the complete closure of the restaurant chain for the most part. The takeout and deliveries are just, they’re not enough to fill our orders. And so that was approximately 50% of the U.S. dairy business,” she said. “And with that closing along with the schools closing, a lot of our fluid milk consumption went into the school lunch program, we’re seeing a lot of our traditional baskets be dumped over.”

        ‘The significant shift in demand from foodservice to food at home has resulted in supply chain issues. Raudabaugh said even though dairy farms can produce the milk, there is no room to store it with creameries full. “Nationwide, we think we have between 10% and 20% more product than we have homes for,” she said.’

        The executive director of the San Joaquin Farm Bureau, Bruce Blodgett, said the change in demand marks a major shift for farmers.
        “They can’t just transition on a dime and all of a sudden start delivering milk to grocery stores if they’re set up to make cheese and butter and things for the foodservice industry,” Blodgett said. Because of supply chain issues, Raudabaugh said some local dairies are dumping their milk. She said job cuts could come next. “We really want people to keep consuming as much local dairy products as they can, keep our farmers and our employees in business,” Raudabaugh said. “Dairy farming is a 24/7 gig, 365 days a year and the cows can’t be turned on or off.”

        ‘Raudabaugh said another way that customers can help is by keeping an eye out for store-imposed limits on dairy products. “If your store has been setting limits on them, please ask them to lift those limits. We will fill the shelves. We have a very safe supply right now,” she said. “Again, if your store is implementing those retail limits, it’s really not necessary.”

        https://www.kcra.com/article/dairy-asparagus-farms-in-san-joaquin-county-hit-hard-by-coronavirus/32074147

        1. Agricultural production in the face of collapsed restaurant and export demand is an instantaneous crisis.

          1. Drove around Somis in Ventura Co. yesterday lots of AG workers in full work mode.

            Also many road workers didn’t have masks either. So I don’t know what’s going on .

          2. So because people cant go to restaurants, they stopped eating too?

            Nation of ‘tards, both re and bas.

        2. Farmer Klein should spend a bit more time actually growing produce instead of complaining to the press about why he doesn’t.

          Now (2020):
          “Instead, owner Jeff Klein decided to stop production before it even began. He (Klein) said this means a substantial loss for his farm, but more importantly, he said he is concerned about the people who are now going to be unemployed”.

          Then (2017):
          Stockton vineyard owner Jeff Klein, 35, last year pulled up 113,000 chardonnay grapevines because he couldn’t compete with better wages paid by more lucrative Napa vineyards. Trump-era deportations are “killing our labor force,” he told the LA Times. “There’s not enough guys, and everybody is fighting for everybody else’s guys.”

          https://www.huffpost.com/entry/immigrant-worker-unharvested-crops_n_59508a72e4b05c37bb774d89

          Old farmer Klein he ran a farm
          E-I-E-I-O
          And on his farm he had some (150) taxpayer subsidized illegal aliens
          E-I-E-I-O
          How does this clown stay in business?

    3. What do you think we should do, open the whole economy up? Just the past two days I’ve read articles from CA, NV and CO where they don’t have enough test kits as it is, which means they can’t even test the people they want to. Also, the coroners don’t have the kits needed, either. So, the medical system is already overwhelmed due to a lack of supplies.

      That would potentially get much worse if we just ended the lockdown and sent everybody back to work, increasing the rate of infection. There aren’t enough masks for medical workers, let alone the public. Do we just send everybody back out there with no protections? What is the answer? I really don’t know. It doesn’t seem like there’s a good solution, and I think that’s where Trump is at right now. Stuck.

      1. Seeing that people are more likely to die from a bad prescription, I’m for starting to open things up. Especially in places that aren’t hard hit, like Arizona.

        1. “Die from a bad pre$cription”

          None CV$ drug$ for me, … but touching knobs&handles.deeth👾.germs & being in the pathways of a humungous uncovered deeth.👾.spraying.pathnogetic sneeze, far more a possibility.
          Yikes!

        2. I agree that the economy needs to open back up. It’s bizarre that I have heard some talking heads talk about closing down for 18 months.

          1. I have heard some talking heads talk about closing down for 18 months.

            I don’t see how that is feasible. People will have to go back to work sooner than later. I was out at the store today and road traffic appeared to be at normal levels.

            Sure, big corps have sent their workers home with a lap top and a VPN account. But where I live few people work for Corporate America. I saw a lot of “Yes, we’re open” signs. Long lines at the fast food drive thrus (isn’t that how they sell most of their stuff anyway?). Plenty of cars at Walmart, Home Depot and Lowes.

            Yeah, Applebee’s, tattoo parlors and hair salons were closed.

          4. I couldn’t stand my long hair any longer, so I sat out in the back yard yesterday & gave myself a buzz cut, 1/8″ guide on the clippers. What a relief. I tipped the barber with a Snickers bar.

          5. I sat out in the back yard yesterday & gave myself a buzz cut

            I’ve had the same idea — will probably do so this weekend.

          6. I’m growing mine out with the goal of becoming a veritable “long-haired musician” during the quarantine. After it ends, I will celebrate by visiting a competent hair stylist.

      2. We’ve been at this lockdown in LA for almost 4 weeks – the entire state for 3. Max incubation period is 14 days. Everyone with it should either have symptoms or be in the hospital by now. The rest of us hiding out in our homes and only going to the grocery store should be super low risk.

        As the risk decreases, they keep coming up with more and more restrictions and even telling us to stay out of grocery stores!!!

        Now the douchebag mayor of LA is making us all wear masks now in essential businesses starting Friday.

        This was after we were told repeatedly masks were worthless for the first few weeks when many more actual contagious people were out and about.

        Oh, and they’re also admonishing us to ONLY wear fabric face coverings and NOT to use N95 or medical masks.

        Who can believe these yokels? What’s next? Open back up, NOW!

        1. The problem is that with very little testing, and no randomization of the testing done so far, we don’t have a clue about the breakdown between never infected, currently infected, and recovered individuals in the general California population. This makes it very difficult to determine the risk of reopening or to control the risk of a second wave.

    4. It’s worth noting that 1,970 people died of COVID-19 yesterday alone in the US. That’s an annualized rate of more than 719,000. That would put it as the number one leading cause of death if it held true for a year. And that’s WITH the lockdown. Just sayin’.

      1. ‘That’s an annualized rate’

        Annualized rate is meaningless worst case scenario whooptie that certain people and groups are playing up. The same people who have been wrong so far by 80-90%. None of the outbreaks have held up at a peak pace to last a year.

        I’m not afraid. If I make a choice to go out to eat, and the owners is willing to open, the cooks and servers are willing to work, why can’t I? If I’m wrong and I die, that’s my problem. I don’t want to hear that commie crap “oh, you’ll put society at danger!” There’s always some fear monger who wants to control everybody. Businesses need to work. Individuals need to work. Those guberment cheese checks are only going to last so long.

        1. “If I’m wrong and I die, that’s my problem.”

          What if you’re wrong and you kill someone else?

          1. Let all the chickens hide under their bed in fear of me then. I’m not going to their shacks. Do you know anybody that has it? Where are the huge numbers of grocery cashiers piled up on bring out yer dead carts? That guy hasn’t been by my house for weeks! What I do know is people need to work. This free money is an illusion.

          3. oxide: *He* won’t be killing anyone. Are you saying what if COVID that *he* spread kills someone? Well, what if an order to lockdown/quarantine kills someone? Because for sure centralized decision making ends up killing people. Also, why blame him *IF* he even spreads viral load, why not blame the person contracting it for taking the risk themselves, going out in public when there is viral load? And even presumably not taking proper PPE precautions?

            All of this because something *MIGHT* happen. Yes I’m aware of statistics, and everyone doing their part, but to me, we should be sending home police, not having them enforce more interaction with the public who are doing a pretty good job self distancing.

          4. You’ll notice they are still selling lotto tickets. Is the guberment going to halt that? Oh hell no.

          5. 3 million of us die every year, most attributed to some preventable cause. You “kill someone” every time you start your car. Why don’t we stop doing that? Can’t afford to.

          6. Are you a fatty and that’s why youre worried? I cant die, whos going to eat all my cheezy poofs!?!

            Lets open this b!tch up where there are hardly any cases, this lockdown is a joke. Keep the sh!tholes on lockdown – should have been that way before the beer flu honestly.

      2. It’s worth noting that 1,970 people died of COVID-19 yesterday alone in the US.

        And it keeps rising. Once it declines, maybe we can start thinking about reopening bars and restaurants.

      3. And that’s WITH the lockdown.

        Is there enough delay between exposure and death to where these numbers are actually for people exposed before the lockdown? I assume the curve starts to bend when you are past that amount of time delay…

        1. We employ over 10,000 at the CDC. You would think that since they started this national experiment they would be asking the same question.

    5. The Memo: Signs of optimism in coronavirus fight bring new dilemma
      By Niall Stanage – 04/08/20 06:04 AM EDT (The Hill dot com)
      ————

      “The first moderately hopeful signs are emerging regarding the coronavirus crisis — but those will also bring new challenges, both in public health and in politics.

      The danger, as far as public health officials see it, is of social distancing measures slackening too fast and allowing the coronavirus to establish a new foothold. A related dilemma is how to manage public expectations and behavior if people feel either that the nadir is past or that some worst-case scenarios won’t come true.

      As experts including Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have noted, one of the problems with strict mitigation efforts is simple: If they work, they appear in retrospect to have been an overreaction.”

      1. Another thing VERY FEW are saying about flattening the curve:
        we’re probably flattening it too much. Take San Diego for instance. Only about 1500 people have been infected. That’s not enough.

        There are about 50 people per day getting infected. At that rate it will take 50,000 days for the full 3 million to get herd immunity with the ones who shouldn’t get it staying mostly safe.

        We need to have probably 10,000 per day getting the virus, to get us through this in about 300 days. That means we need a rolling 200,000 people infected, and at a 10% hospitalization rate, during 1/3 of the infection period, we need about 8,000 hospital beds going concurrently.

        Otherwise, the whole county will need to be on lockdown for 12 months until we get a vaccine. This will kill far more people due to job loss, and long term economic damage and poverty than those who die from corona. And worse, what if riots or social upheaval happens due to this? Worldwide, it’s already happening, just not in the states… (yet).

        1. We need to have probably 10,000 per day getting the virus Our experts have no idea how many per day are actually getting the virus. Your calculations are unfounded.

          1. If you say I’m wrong, say why. I don’t mind being wrong, but i want to know why you think my line of logic is failing.
            The numbers of infections are consistent with the death rate. Meaning we are verifying a 2% rate of deaths and confirming that against the infection rate.

            Also, we will get better treatments as we extend the time workers have to deal with it, but again, extending to 12 months of quarantine is going to kill more people than the virus.

          2. reported negative infection results is when you get tested and the results come back negative. We’ve tested x odd thousands of people, and in San Diego at least, only 1500 or so have come back positive, the rest come back negative. This isn’t statistical sampling, is likely infected results, so shouldn’t be representative of the general population. You also have to control for the false negative error rate.

            Either way, so far, trying to imply that the current numbers hold no meaning is holding very little logical sway. It strikes me that those making this argument are not using occam’s razor, and are contorting around strange explanations for relatively straightforward data points.

        2. about 1500 people have been infected. That’s not enough.

          You have no idea how many people are infected.

          1. You’re right, *I* don’t know exactly, but at the death rate of 2%, the estimates that the local health authorities are putting out that I’m using with their expertise logically correlate. Please provide contradictory logic. I’m happy and willing to listen.

          2. death rate of 2%

            Is as useless and worthless as the models. You must have missed us here on HBB beating that dead horse.

          4. We are starting with something we know: reported deaths, reported infections, reported negative infection results, the ratios in other areas, and the reported ratio here. If we saw 1000 deaths but only 2000 reported infections, it might lead us to believe we aren’t seeing correlating data. I really can’t engage with ” nuh uh”, so I’ll be the one that stops if that’s all there is to the denials.

          5. reported deaths likely overstated with liberal application of dying with not just of COVID-19

            reported infections likely understated without massive testing to know how many were infected but didn’t know it

            reported negative infection results what is that?!

            the ratios using the above numbers is likewise inaccurate

            if we saw 1000 deaths but only 2000 reported infections, it might lead us to believe we aren’t seeing correlating data what?!

          6. also, in science we don’t say “you don’t know exactly” . We give an error estimate. Are you telling me the error estimate around the numbers is multiple orders of magnitude different than 1500? If this is so, then within those “likely enough to need a test” how come we are still getting so many negative results, and the death toll isn’t matching what would be orders of magnitpretendude more infections? The probability that your argument is statistically valid is very small.

          8. in science we don’t say

            Save the condescension. Three of the four people you’re arguing with here have science degrees (i.e., MD and/or BS) while the other has one or more math degrees from what I gather.

          9. Red: you’re trying to use an appeal to authority logical fallacy. Someone with a science degree can be just as wrong as anyone else.

            I have a science degree. It doesn’t mean shit other than how it may help me advance a logical proposition.

            I don’t know why I have the desire to keep engaging… Ok I’ll stop now… was just looking to see if there was another side to the picture that some people I respect here can usually put forward logically.

        3. 12 months until we get a vaccine

          Good luck with that expectation. It’s a flu virus. The reason flu virus is so successful is because it mutates quickly. The vaccine and the herd immunity every year is for last year’s flu. JMO.

          2. I’m just saying the only 2 options we have at this point are vaccine and immunity through infection. If we’re hoping to not go the immunity through infection route, the only alternative is a vaccine. Is this wrong in your eyes?

          3. Housing.

            Glendale, CA Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As One LA Broker Conceded, “We Ripped Off A Whole Bunch Of People”

            https://www.zillow.com/glendale-ca-91205/home-values/

            *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

            As a noted economist said so eloquently, “A house is a rapidly depreciating asset that empties your wallet every day you own it. Rent a house for half the monthly cost of buying it.”

        4. “Only about 1500 people have been infected. That’s not enough.”

          How do you know how many have been infected?

          2. 1500 is approximate. Maybe it’s 2000, maybe its 2500 . It’s probably not 100,000. This is based on testing results. Lots of negatives are coming back.

            I’ve heard the theory that covid already came through california. This is a possibility, but it sure seems like we would have heard something about a strange unknown deadly cold coming through before this. It will be interesting to see when antibody tests come out.

          3. I’m not 100% sure we didn’t have it in February, as I and two other of my immediate household members had flulike symptoms with a cough we couldn’t shake for weeks. None of us get sick very often, either. How do you know if you had a “mild” (non-intensive care ward visit) COVID-19 case without being tested?

            However, after asking around, nobody else at my workplace or among my personal circle has had COVID-19. My 19-yo nephew in the Midwest recently had a 103+ F fever over four days running, and his COVID-19 test came out negative. It’s been a bad cold and flu season in many respects.

  2. ‘Mark Calabria, who leads the Federal Housing Finance Agency, described industry concerns as ‘spin.’

    Like the CNBC report this past weekend. These clowns are just crying for free money.

    ‘I’ve seen zero [evidence] to suggest that there’s a systemic crisis across the nonbank servicers,’ Mr. Calabria said. ‘If this goes on for a year, maybe. But I think the frustration here is a lot of just misrepresentation’

    ‘Mr. Calabria said his agency isn’t seeing the alarming levels of forbearance requests estimated by some industry groups, which have suggested that up to 25% or more of borrowers would seek payment relief. At present, the figure is closer to 2% for Fannie and Freddie borrowers’

    From 2% to 25%?

    hy·per·bo·le
    /hīˈpərbəlē/
    noun: hyperbole; plural noun: hyperboles

    -exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally.

    1. These clowns are just crying for free money.

      Exactly. It’s why I have asked how we could go from the greatest economy ever to seemingly every large company needing a bailout in 2 weeks time. Does not compute. All these bloated corporations and institutions have been trained to go cry to Uncle Sugar anytime they feel a little economic pain.

      1. needing a bailout in 2 weeks time

        It was predictable. Whole segments of the economy were shut down in a span of a couple weeks. They don’t have a rainy day fund because they spent every penny they had or could borrow to buy back their own stock.

        1. So why don’t they just sell that stock back into the market to raise cash? Oh, right… they’d had to take a loss. TFB. Everyone with a 401K is taking losses too, and many of them will get 0 bailout.

          1. I may be wrong, but when they do buybacks doesn’t that stock essentially disappear because they are reducing shares? Meaning, they’d have to unveil an entirely new stock offering.

          2. doesn’t that stock essentially disappear

            https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/treasury-stock/

            “Treasury stock, or reacquired stock, is a portion of previously issued, outstanding shares of stock which a company has repurchased or bought back from shareholders. These reacquired shares are then held by the company for its own disposition. They can either remain in the company’s possession to be sold in the future, or the business can retire the shares and they will be permanently out of market circulation.”

          3. These reacquired shares are then held by the company for its own disposition. They can either remain in the company’s possession to be sold in the future, or the business can retire the shares and they will be permanently out of market circulation.”

            Thank you. I should have done the research but was being a bit lazy.

          1. Well, this is the only logical conclusion if you don’t allow for infection of the population.

            Buying a couple more weeks time for some alleviating treatments like plasma transfers and antibody serums is the only thing we have. Then we need to control infection rates, and .5 – 1 million people per day need to be getting sick to get the herd through it in the US .

            We can’t survive 12 months to wait for the quarantine. If we try, instead of a managed infection rate, there is a probability of a mass infection with 50 million people concurrently sick, causing add on illness (and death) as well. People won’t be able to live without working.

  3. ‘many deals include an ‘outside date which allows buyers to walk away if a building is not complete by the deadline. Kevin Maloney of Property Markets Group, which is one of 111 West 57th’s developers, said any luxury site in the city is ‘frozen’ due to the pandemic crisis. He told the Financial Times: ‘Just about any luxury condo in New York, whether it’s complete or almost complete or partly complete, it’s in the same boat right now: it’s frozen. There’s going to be a bunch of failed projects throughout New York’

    NYC has been FUBAR since 2016. Still no bubble?

  4. ‘it’s been tough to sell even his own home. ‘It was the first day on the market it was under contract everything was ready to go and after a month or so, unfortunately the individual’s assets changed and they could no longer qualify for their loan and so they had to terminate’

    Wa? Matt, are your going to just give it away? Think of all the sweet equity you’ll leave on the table?

    1. The article a few days ago about the 24 year old buying a couple houses totaling more than $1.5 million, then using them as Airbnb rentals, is this bubble’s strawberry picker story.

    2. I feel bad about people with real jobs losing work.

      For a Denver REALTOR, I feel nothing but pure hatred.

      Bed, made, lie (also rhymes with starve and die).

      1. I feel the same about the “Airbnb empire” speculators. Scum of the earth, in my opinion.

  6. Re: Curbed article — it looks like listings have dropped roughly about 25% here (metro Detroit), sold homes gradually trickling down, probably because of the length of time for the closing process for some of them. Dropped listings are mainly expiring ones that had been on the market for some time without selling. No significant movement on prices yet.

  7. 🚫🐓🚜👨‍🌾👩‍🌾 … 🚫🐓🗡🍗… 🚫🐓🍗🚛🛣… 🚫🐓🍗🌆🏠… 🚫🐓🍗👨‍🍳👩‍🍳… 🚫🐓🍗🙍‍♂️🙍‍♀️👨‍👩‍👧‍👦…😟 😩😠😡…

    (🐓Chickens holding up signs: eat.more.beef!🐂)

    1. “The la$t, shall bee first!”

      The last on the pay.$cales gets to bee the first to meet the public.distributed.deeth.👾.germ$

      Politic$:
      U.S. Sees First Food-Worker Deaths; ‘You Are Vital,’ Pence Says

      By James Attwood and Isis Almeida / April 8, 2020

      Union reports poultry-$taff deaths; JB$ confirms a worker died

      Just hours after a labor union reported what may be the first poultry-worker deaths associated with the coronaviru$ in the U.S., Vice President Mike Pence urged American food workers to continue to “show up and do your job.”

      Pence’s remarks came just hours after the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union that represent$ thousand$ of poultry-proce$$ing worker$ across the $outhern U.$. reported that two members at a Ty$on Food$ Inc. facility in Camilla, Georgia, had died from the viru$.

      JBS USA on Wednesday confirmed the death of an employee that worked at its Greeley, Colorado, plant, citing complications associated with Covid-19. The company is a unit of JB$ SA, the world’$ bigge$t meat company.

      The JBS employee had worked for the company for more than 30 years, and a spokesman said the firm is offering support to the family and team members.

      Tyson said the company has been taking employee temperatures before they enter facilities, stepped up deep cleaning at its plants, implemented social distancing measures and given workers access to protective face coverings. The company didn’t comment on the deaths Tuesday or again Wednesday.

      The slowdown$ have fanned fears of potential food shortage$ just as $upply chain di$ruptions are already keeping some basic goods such as beef, rice and pasta off grocery shelves. The U.S. Chicken Council said its members are doing everything they can to keep their employees safe and product on the shelves.

      On Monday, Tyson said it had halted pork processing at a plant in Iowa after more than two dozen workers tested positive. JBS suspended operations until April 16 at a beef plant in Pennsylvania after several managers showed symptoms. Other producers have faced everything from worker walkouts to hundreds of employees quarantined to people calling out of the job.

    2. Wasn’t there like a fast.food.chicken.sandwhich retail.war recently?

      Busine$$
      Uproar Among Worker$ $upplying the World’$ Meat Is $preading

      Bloomberg / By Jen Skerritt and Tatiana Freitas / April 1, 2020

      Layout of plants makes social distancing ‘a challenge’
      Companies mull relief pool of workers to keep factories going

      A growing number of workers who are crucial to supplying the world with meat are demanding that their companies do more to keep them safe from the coronavirus

      Labor unions are starting to speak out as their members fall ill, there are reports of increased absenteeism and some front line workers have even walked off the job. That’s raising the specter of mass protests that could threaten global meat supplies just as supply chains unravel and grocery stores struggle to keep food on their shelves.

      It’s part of the balancing act facing meat and agricultural producers in a pandemic: how to keep the world fed while $afeguarding employee$. Slaughterhou$e$ and proce$$ing plant$ are sanitizing their operations more, staggering lunch breaks and checking people’s temperatures, but unions say they’re still falling short.

      (There’s that word … again: “Acting”)

      They’re scared to make that decision that you guys need to be six feet apart because the production is going to plummet,” said Paula Schelling, acting national joint council chairwoman of food-inspector locals for the American Federation of Government Employees.

      In the U.S, social distancing is not possible in processing facilities where workers are side by side, and the Department of Agriculture is not equipping its consumer-safety or food inspectors with protective masks or hand sanitizer, Schelling of the American Federation said.

      With assistance by Mike Dorning, Heesu Lee, Ken Parks, and Isis Almeida

      1. Wowser’$, that is a mouthful!

        Industrie$ Food/Beverage$/Tobacco / Key Word$:

        Steak-umm has got a real beef with the media’s coronavirus coverage

        Published: April 7, 2020 / By Nicole Lyn Pesce

        The $andwich $teak brand tweeted a lengthy PSA about media literacy

        Last week, the self-described “best-known sandwich steak brand in America” also tweeted its thoughts on how society should come together during the pandemic, where it also highlighted “the challenges of misinformation, media inundation, partisanship, and cultural polarization.”

        Well, Steak-umm just said a mouthful.

        The maker of thin-sliced frozen meat products went on a Twitter tear about media$ con$umption during the coronaviru$ pandemic on Monday night — and many readers are eating it up.

        The Quaker Maid Meats, Inc.-owned sandwich steak brand went viral overnight after calling on the public to whet their critical thinking skills and to question their news sources in a volatile environment rife with misinformation.

        Seriously.

        It began with, “friendly reminder in times of uncertainty and misinformation: anecdotes are not data. (Good) data is carefully measured and collected information based on a range of subject-dependent factors, including, but not limited to, controlled variables, meta-analysis, and randomization.”

        it can be difficult to know what to believe in a time when institutional trust is diminished and the gatekeepers of information have been dismantled, but it’s more crucial now than ever before to follow a range of credentialed sources for both breaking news and data collection

        all we currently have are limited and evolving metrics that experts are deciphering and acting upon immediately to the best of their ability. this terrain leaves many openings for opportunists and charismatic manipulators to lead people astray by exploiting what they want to hear.

        breaking news and storytelling will always be spun with interpretive bias from different media perspectives, but data is a science that can’t be replaced by one-off anecdotes. try to remember this to avoid fear-based sensationalism or conspiracy theories taking over your mind

        you can maintain independent, critical thinking toward institutions without dipping into fringe conspiracies that get jumpstarted by individual anecdotes being virally spread as data. it’s not easy, but it’s necessary to keep any semblance of responsible online information flow.

  8. Does it seem like the Fed is playing God in the bond market, picking winners and losers?

      1. This whole market is no different than Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme .. Except for one thing ….The printing press ..Lets hope it is full of ink !

        1. It’s mass hysteria. What’s the first thing? Everybody, stop paying your mortgage and rents! This is an unnecessary freak-out on a global scale. I’ve got to catch up on international crater later, oh and CRE too. What I’m seeing is off the chart.

          1. Mania #2 (xaoh.deeth.👾.hy$teria)
            I$ feeding & devouring$
            Mania #1 (Bubble$.Ever.Thang$)

            🎈🎈🎈🎈🎈🎈🎈🎈👾📌 …

          2. Does Unlimited Quantitative Easing provide enough bailout money to enable renters and mortgage borrowers to stop making payments AND to make the stiffed landlords and mortgage owners whole?

            TBD.

    2. Gawd & thee Federal.Re$erve do have x1 thing in common$:

      They’$ is both: “UNLIMITED!”

  9. I hate seeing Bernie drop out. For all his faults it felt like he helped keep the race a little more honest. This is one of those rare moments in history where I think he could run 3rd party and maybe bury the Ds and start something new on the left. Which would then have the positive side effect of preventing the right from going back to business as usual after Trump.

      2. There’$ a really scary “$ociali$t.tapeworm” inserting it$ self into every U$ taxpayer in thee U$A :

        $6+ Trillion$ … + … “”UNLIMITED!”

  10. “‘Everyone’s scared,’ says Brad Twiss, a real estate agent in Portland, Ore. He says some people he sold houses to can’t get through to their lenders on the phone after waiting on hold for hours. Those who do, he says, ‘are hearing drastically different things from every individual lender.’ And some are being told they have to make one of these big balloon payments to catch up at the end of the forbearance.”

    I’m not scared at all. Eating my popcorn and joyfully watching the shows!

  12. ‘The pandemic we are experiencing has cut the blinders off of what were once hardcore ‘truths.’ We will no longer live in a land of plenty, where there is neither a never-ending supply of tenants, nor a never-ending supply of jobs for those who want them. That reality no longer exists. Most fools in 1992 thought they would get the same rent as before. A costly mistake. In real estate when you overprice a listing, you end up following the market downward.’

    ‘You will have to look for new tenants and your lower rent significantly. You will have to lower your rental standards just to get tenants. There will be a glut of units on the market as people don’t get their jobs back and move. If you had negotiated with your tenant and came out with an agreement you both were happy with, those costs would be saved. How many months of rent (lowered) would it take you to catch up financially? You never could’

    ‘If you do not listen to reason in this time of trouble you will lose. With no money to pay your mortgages, taxes, etc., your property will be foreclosed either by the bank or by the state. In conclusion, everyone has a vested interest in making negotiations regarding rent, and you had better start by being polite. If you have sent a letter out already then write another one dismissing the previous one. Yes, you own the land, but without the tenant, you will not own it for long’

    But if you paid too much or cash-out refinanced (as many did), you might not be able to lower rents and pay the mortgage. Oh the mistakes made when one thinks trees grow to the sky.

    1. “Monie$ is thee.root$ of all evil$!”
      By Bernie Made.off’s

      “Lack of monie$ is thee root of all evil’$!”
      By George Bernard Shaw.

      $ounds like an “UNLIMITED” “irrational exuberance conundrum$”.

    2. This piece warmed my heart. I will re-read it dozens of times over the next couple days.

    3. I’m already interested to see what kind of rent increase I’ll be hit with when my lease runs out late this year. As the virus may still be causing problems and I might not want to move. And house prices may not have dropped enough to even tempt me to buy.

      Note I expect some sort of increase, even if the market is tanking. Because in the real world, property managers/landlords aren’t as smart as the guy who wrote the piece above.

      They’d rather see me (and my federal gov’t pension, i.e. guaranteed income) walk, and risk having the unit sit empty for a month or two. Then get filled by someone paying even less than I do now, who ends up requiring eviction and maybe trashes the place. But I digress…

      Also, I’d love to know how many people in my complex didn’t pay their rent at the beginning of April. (Nevada has an eviction moratorium.) Judging by the whiff of desperation in the mass email from the office, a lot of people didn’t.

  13. “A costly mistake. In real estate when you overprice a listing, you end up following the market downward. Eventually, everyone wonders why the price keeps dropping as if there were something wrong with the place. It becomes a dead listing and the lack of income becomes a noose around your neck.”

    But don’t give the house away!

  14. How is Uncle Buck faring in the COVID-19 era?

    Some say inflation is on the way, just as they did in the 2007-2009 episode. But deflationary pressures seem immense at the moment. Hard to predict how this goes from here.

        1. I haven’t heard much lately about his “Starship”, though to give SpaceX some credit they will soon be sending astronauts to the ISS, though it will be in a very conventional capsule.

    2. It’s a question of debt saturation. Who can say when the straw will break the donkey’s back?

      1. “debt$ $aturation$”

        =

        X9 sacks of #90lb cemet bags in yer trunk + full.tank.of.gas + x3 200+# guy.buddies in yer ’68 GTO & a guy rolls up with ’67 427 cobra.jet Camaro & ×1 hot.petite.sweetie :

        “Wanna race?”

          1. ” …all other things being equal. ”

            Yer allowed jet$ fuel only! … Nitrou$… 🙅

        2. Your story reminded me of the good old days. Four of us in a ’69 Camaro with a built big block 454, racing an old Nova with a built 327, driver only. That Nova was fast! But he was still 3 car lengths back, and falling further behind. There is no replacement for displacement.

          1. In the ’80s I was driving south on a Jersey highway, 287 I think, in my ’70 dull pea soup green Firebird. A new shiny black Firebird pulled up alongside and the guy indicated he wanted a contest. I gave it the gas and pulled away from him, but at 70 mph I took my foot off the gas. He shot by me with a State Trooper right behind him! It’s my only race story.

          2. There is no replacement for displacement.

            Lots of positive intake manifold pressure and AWD traction is usually enough, even with only 120ci of displacement.

          3. Lots of positive intake manifold pressure and AWD traction is usually enough, even with only 120ci of displacement.

            It may be “enough” for you, but “there is no replacement for displacement” holds true. More cubic inches means more power, all other things being equal. The bigger the engine, the more power potential. People have been trying to argue against it for years, to no avail.

          4. People have been trying to argue against it for years, to no avail.

            I get your hypothetical point. But big motor 5000rpm rwd guys have been getting crushed by small motor 7000+rpm guys running a bunch of boost and AWD for years now. I will admit that they are finally catching back up by using a bunch of boost themselves and only running on slicks or from a roll but everybody I see make the hypothetical point always turns out to be a guy who is frustrated with losing. The winners long ago decided that more than just displacement was going to be needed in the modern era and that corny old sayings from the 70s weren’t helpful any more.

          5. You’re missing the point. Give that big block the same amount of fuel, air and traction and watch what happens.

          6. Which says nothing about the weight advantage of those smaller cars you’re talking about.

          7. You’re missing the point.

            I hear your point loud and clear. But if results are the final goal, then each of those other factors are “replacements for displacement”. Or nothing is a replacement for anything. It’s a silly saying.

          8. It’s a silly saying.

            In your opinion, not mine. It’s not a saying, it’s a fact. We listened for years at the shop to the small block guys who swore up and down that they could build a small block Chevy that would put out more power than a big block. They never could. You simply do the same thing to the big block and it’s no contest. Some don’t get it.

          9. ut if results are the final goal, then each of those other factors are “replacements for displacement”.

            Look at the fastest top fuel dragsters. What are they running? That’s right, big blocks. Why aren’t they running your 120 ci ricer motor?

        3. Look at the fastest top fuel dragsters. What are they running?

          Hahah…I was going to stop replying…”pearls before swine” etc. But it cracks me up how nothing has changed in 20 years. I’ve heard all these things before. It’s pointless to discuss if you don’t want to process the information I’m conveying and just want to rehash all this old crap.

          Regarding top fuel, the rules are the rules. Weight is already at a minimum, no turbos are allowed, AWD is no help once you can transfer all weight to the rear. The entire rule book is basically built around that old KB hemi with a roots blower. That doesn’t mean there aren’t other ways to accomplish the same thing. They just aren’t allowed for that class. But seriously, if you don’t want to discuss why any power making factor can “replace” any other power making factor there’s no reason to discuss further. Yes, displacement is one of those factors and I’ll admit that if you hold all other factors constant then more displacement is better. But I’m trying to have a more sophisticated conversation than that. I got bored with “you can’t make a small block run with a big block if everything else is equal” decades ago. It doesn’t matter, everything else is never equal. The fun is in coming up with combinations that unexpectedly beat other combinations. Cubic dollars is boring.

          1. It reminds me of an old saying, Carl. “If the facts hurt, the facts aren’t the problem.”

            There’s no reason to get all bruised over facts. They are what they are.

    3. It’s fortunate that the stock market is headed back up again, as otherwise this news would be concerning.

      Fed staff’s worst-case scenario: No major recovery until next year: minutes
      Published: April 8, 2020 at 2:30 p.m. ET
      By Greg Robb

      The worst-case scenario of the staff of the Federal Reserve for the economy is no recovery until next year, according to minutes of the central bank’s March 15 policy meeting released Wednesday. The staff told officials that there were two plausible scenarios for the U.S. economy grappling with the coronavirus. In one scenario, the U.S. economy would start to recover in the second half of the year. The more adverse scenario was that the economy entered a recession with no significant rebound until next year. Facing this uncertainty, Fed officials responded by slashing interest rates to zero and launching open-ended purchases of Treasury and asset-backed securities. Supporters of the full percentage point cut on March 15 called it “forceful.” A few officials wanted to cut rates only by half-point, the minutes show. There was concern expressed that the central bank would be out of ammunition with its benchmark rate essentially at zero. But some officials said the Fed had other tools to ease monetary policy.
      …

    4. Got chaos?

      The Tell
      Founder of world’s largest hedge fund doubles down on ‘cash is trash’ argument, warning of debt-fueled inflation
      Published: April 8, 2020 at 12:14 p.m. ET
      By Chris Matthews
      Ray Dalio says government spending will soon erode the value of the U.S. dollar
      Read full story
      – Goldman analyst who predicted the coronavirus would kill the bull market says ‘risk to the downside is greater’ despite Dow’s recent rally
      – Coronavirus stock-market volatility is creating the largest daily price swings since 1929 crash
      – Opinion: Why this bear market isn’t all bad news
      – Waiting for a stock-market bottom is ‘folly,’ says billionaire Howard Marks: ‘If something’s cheap…you should buy’
      – Is the Dow staging a genuine rebound? Here’s what experts think as the stock market attempts to shake the bearish grip of the coronavirus pandemic
      – Dow nears 600-point gain amid tentative hopes for U.S. to re-open economy
      …

    5. CNA
      Meta Main Navigation

      Sign in
      Search
      The dollar is still king, even as COVID-19 slams US
      World
      A US dollar note.
      (Photo: REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration/File Photo)
      07 Apr 2020 11:09AM
      (Updated: 07 Apr 2020 11:30AM)

      NEW YORK: The COVID-19 outbreak in the United States has caused millions of people to lose their jobs and brought the economy to its knees but it has not dethroned the American dollar.

      To the contrary, the currency has risen in value this year, gaining 6 per cent from its lowest point reached in early March, according to the US dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against a basket of other currencies.
      …

      1. Such a currencie$ $urge doe$ wonder$ for one$ export$!

        :-/

        “Trade.War$.i$.Ea$y!” … mini.Phase ll v86, “Coming.$oon!

  16. ‘Each month there’s going to be a slight adjustment, but there’s no doubt that there’s going to be pressure on home prices,’ said Keith Furrow, a broker and a builder and partner in Gulf Coast Dream Homes.”

    Hey Keith, what if instead of a slight adjustment, there’s cratering?

  17. “‘Everyone’s scared,’ says Brad Twiss, a real estate agent in Portland, Ore.

    I’m not scared, Brad. But then again, I’m not a speculator or FB.

  18. He says some people he sold houses to can’t get through to their lenders on the phone after waiting on hold for hours. Those who do, he says, ‘are hearing drastically different things from every individual lender.’

    Feel free to dial in to the HBB, where we’ve got a simple, straightforward message for FBs: You’re screwed.

  19. “‘March-April is really our highest inventory and really our craziest time of the year and so we’re going to have an artificial peak, I hope, as soon as this is over,’ said Matthew Leprino, spokesperson for the Colorado Association of REALTORS.

    You be sure to get back with us when that peak appears, Matt.

      1. Matt wants the marks to believe there’s a peak ahead. I’m pretty sure Matt knows better.

  20. “It’s something he is seeing more and more of. Mortgage lenders pressing the pause button.

    That’s a panic button, Matt.

  22. ‘The look on people’s faces was like I had leprosy,’ said French, a broker associate with Sereno Group, recalling the 2008 crash.

    That is a very healthy response to being in the presence of a realtor.

  24. “young people aren’t likely to die from the disease, and invite the question of why quarantines are directed at the whole population, rather than the most vulnerable — the sick and the elderly.”

    86% of New Yorkers Who Died With Chinese Virus Had Other Illnesses, Conditions

    Written by R. Cort Kirkwood
    Wednesday, 08 April 2020

    The Numbers
    Perhaps the most telling numbers are those that show the vast majority who have died suffered underlying illnesses or conditions: 4,732 out of 5,489 of the deceased, or 86.2 percent.

    For instance, of those victims 80 to 89 years old, 836 had high blood pressure, 488 had diabetes, and 227 had coronary artery disease. Another 157 suffered kidney disease, 148 had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 136 had cancer, and 132 had congestive heart failure.

    Those figures are similar in the 60-69 age cohort: 572 had high blood pressure and 444 had diabetes, while 133 suffered with kidney disease and 119 with coronary artery disease. Another 88 had cancer and 46 had congestive heart failure.

    Yet even younger carriers suffered with other potentially fatal diseases.

    Of those who died between ages 40 and 49, 83 had high blood pressure, and 77 had diabetes. Eighteen suffered with kidney disease, while eight had coronary artery disease and four had congestive heart failure.

    Nine people in the 20-29 cohort had diabetes and four had high blood pressure.

    The data also confirm that the most vulnerable cohort is 50 years or older: 93 percent of those who have died were 50 or older, and 82.3 percent were 60 or older.

    Not surprisingly, those figures mesh almost exactly with those who suffered underlying disease: Victims 50 years and older suffered 96.8 percent of comorbidities.

    The more than 5,400 people who have died in New York had more than 9,500 underlying illnesses or conditions, which means, not surprisingly, that some suffered with more than one.

    Only 32 people younger than 30 years old have died.

    https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/health-care/item/35385-86-of-new-yorkers-who-died-with-chinese-virus-had-other-illnesses-conditions

    1. I wonder if it’d be a good idea to lift the quarantine for the young and healthy, then see how it goes in terms of the healthcare system. They’d essentially be infected in large numbers, but a lot of them would not have a bad reaction and it would get us moving more quickly towards that “herd immunity” they talk about, which can only be achieved by more than 75% of the population getting it.

      1. “…lift the quarantine for the young and healthy,…”

        That could work with widely available testing. Otherwise we have no handle on the number of mild or asymptomatic cases, either now or after relaxing the quarantine.

        1. But all we’re really concerned about is the capacity for the hospitals to keep up with patients, right? Wasn’t that the whole reason for the shutdown?

          2. Presumably with time we may also see some treatments that prove more effective against the disease. The shutdown should give us time to ramp up facilities and supply chains, and *fingers crossed* find some treatments that help a bit. Examples so far are hydrxychl-whatever, and blood plasma from the recovered.

          3. Yes. And if the illness is very prevalent among people moving freely in society, it will quickly find its way into enclaves of the vulnerable, leading to mass tragedy on a national level which most of us would rather avoid, plus greater potential to overwhelm available healthcare resources.

            World
            Europe
            Coronavirus: Europe’s care homes struggle as deaths rise
            3 April 2020
            Coronavirus pandemic
            Image copyright Getty
            This Naples nursing home was evacuated on Thursday in an attempt to stop the virus spreading

            As nursing and care homes across Europe battle to stop the spread of Covid-19 among the elderly, France has revealed 1,416 residents have succumbed to the virus since the epidemic began.

            Alarming cases have emerged in the Spanish capital Madrid, with reports of dozens of deaths in two nursing homes.

            Residents were taken to hospital in the Italian city of Naples after a care home outbreak claimed several lives.

            Cases have also been reported in 100 care homes around the Swedish capital.

            Although authorities in the Stockholm region have not given figures, public broadcaster SVT says more than 400 people have been infected and about 50 have died.
            …

          4. Local News
            COVID-19 death toll in Windsor-Essex rises to six
            Author of the article:
            Dalson Chen • Windsor Star
            Publishing date:
            17 hours ago • 3 minute read
            The sign outside the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit offices on Ouellette Avenue on March 19, 2020. Dax Melmer / Windsor Star

            The number of deaths due to the novel coronavirus in Windsor-Essex has risen to six.

            The most recent local victim of COVID-19 was announced by the region’s health unit on Tuesday afternoon was a woman in her 70s.

            Dr. Wajid Ahmed, medical officer of health with the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit, extended his condolences to the family of the deceased.

            Additional information about the patient is not being released at this time out of respect for the family’s privacy.

            The announcement came just hours after the health unit disclosed that a COVID-19 outbreak has developed at another long-term care home in Windsor-Essex — Extendicare Southwood Lakes.

            A staff member at the retirement home has tested positive.

            The number of such facilities in the region with COVID-19 cases is now seven.

            The six previously announced outbreak locations are Amica Riverside, Heron Terrace, Lifetimes On Riverside, Riverside Place, and Village of St. Clair in Windsor, as well Country Village Homes in Woodslee.
            …

    2. In the last couple of days, news out of NYC mentions that ERs there are seeing many fewer patients presenting with acute coronary symptoms. The rate of new or worsening coronary events should not be affected much by COVID-19, but it seems to be. Perhaps the ones most likely to have coronary events are instead getting killed off by COVID-19. Perhaps patients are so afraid of getting infected in the ERs they are not going there for treatment. But putting off serious symptoms can kill them at home.

      1. “herd immunity” they talk about, which can only be achieved by more than 75% of the population getting it. Our “top men” really have no idea just how far the population has gone in getting to this tipping point of herd immunity. They are not measuring it, since testing abilities continue severely limitted.

  26. The front page titles of the articles on CNN Money look disastrous yet the stock market is up?? Please explain

    2. With Unlimited QE in play, bad real economic news is good news for the stock market, as it’s a leading indicator for larger bailouts to come.

      Business News
      April 8, 2020 / 3:17 AM / Updated 11 hours ago
      OECD says leading indicators flag biggest monthly drop on record
      FILE PHOTO: A Times Square Alliance street sweeper worker walks though a nearly empty Times Square in Manhattan during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York City, New York, U.S., April 7, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar

      PARIS (Reuters) – Major economies are seeing the biggest monthly slump in activity ever amid the coronavirus crisis and no end is in sight without clarity about how long lockdowns will last, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Wednesday.
      …

      1. “UNLIMITED!” + … “Other tool$!”👀 🎉

        Economy & Politic$ | Federal Re$erve
        MARKET PUL$E

        Fed staff’$ wor$t-cas$e $cenario: No major recovery until next year: minutes

        MarketWatch |By Greg Robb | Published: Apr 8, 2020

        The worst-case scenario of the staff of the Federal Reserve for the economy is no recovery until next year, according to minutes of the central bank’s March 15 policy meeting released Wednesday. The staff told officials that there were two plausible scenarios for the U.S. economy grappling with the coronavirus. In one scenario, the U.S. economy would start to recover in the second half of the year. The more adverse scenario was that the economy entered a recession with no significant rebound until next year. Facing this uncertainty, Fed officials responded by slashing interest rates to zero and launching open-ended purchases of Treasury and asset-backed securities. Supporters of the full percentage point cut on March 15 called it “forceful.” A few officials wanted to cut rates only by half-point, the minutes show. There was concern expressed that the public might think the central bank would be out of ammunition with its benchmark rate essentially at zero. (-0%)

        But other officials noted the Fed had other tool$ to ea$e monetary policie$.

      1. “If the pandemic doesn’t pop this bubble then, of course, it will be $omething el$e that eventually accompli$he$ this,” he said, reiterating his long-held belief that ea$y-money central bank$ and the bubble$ they continue$ to pump will eventually lead to a major global rever$al$.

        How bad could it get when it really goes sideways?

        “I expect a true cra$h to take back a decade$ [worth of $tock-market gain$],”

        My.kinda.guy! … 📉📉📉📉💸💸💸💸💸 … 👾 munch$, munch$, munch$

  27. You could have predicted with 100% certainty that the NY stooges would turn this into a racial thing.

  28. Question: With so many applying for mortgage forbearance, even those who do not need it, what future negative issues will they have to deal with? I know it will not affect credit so what’s the jeopardy in FB’s taking mortgage holiday? Is it likely the question of forbearance is listed on future mortgage applications and can banks deny loans based on those received it?

    1. Is it likely the question of forbearance is listed on future mortgage applications and can banks deny loans based on those received it?

      Let us not forget the last time everything blew up that people who were foreclosed or filed for BK were able to get new loans just two years later.

      I seriously doubt there will be any credit score consequences o applying for a forbearance.

Comments are closed.