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We Were Expecting 2020 To Be A Really Great Year, And Then — Boom! — This Happens

A report from the Associated Press on Utah. “Evidence from Utah home listings suggests some homeowners are pulling back. A few are panic selling — while would-be buyers begin to feel tightening credit, with more hurdles to jump to get a loan as lenders worry about job losses. Some sellers have lopped thousands of dollars off their asking prices in recent weeks, raising the prospect of bargains in the market. Several agents said some wealthier homeowners with second homes in Utah have gotten clobbered by recent stock market declines and have started to sell to raise cash.”

“Sarah Mortensen and her husband prepared to sell their Davis County home in early April. They accepted their first offer. They ‘were concerned about job loss or a market crash so we wanted to get the house sold as quickly as possible.’ ‘There are less buyers in the market, but it has allowed more opportunity to purchase with less competition,’ said Ashlee Shipley, senior loan officer with a Cottonwood Heights-based mortgage lender.”

The Associated Press on Nevada. “On the always busy, always noisy, never sleeping Las Vegas strip, you can now hear birds chirping. Workers are expected to lose $7.7 billion in wages and salaries over the next 18 months if the tourism industry is shuttered between 30 and 90 days, according to a study from the Nevada Resort Association. Victor Chicas, a restaurant server in the Mandalay Bay casino-hotel, was facing foreclosure on his home before the virus shut down the city and the 54-year-old was laid off.”

“He immediately ended his cable and internet service to cut his expenses and drained his swimming pool to trim his electric bill. He’s still waiting to find out if his home loan modification will be approved and if he’ll get a chance to try to keep his house, while also supporting his sister and her two children, who immigrated to the U.S. from Guatemala. ‘Now when we come back,’ he said, ‘I’m going to be underwater.'”

From New Jersey 101.5. “Compared to the same week in 2019, home purchase contracts in the Garden State were down 51% in the first week of April this year. Randi Dickman, broker associate with RE/MAX First Realty in East Brunswick said she has two sellers whose homes she has not yet listed, mainly because buyers are expecting to get a home ‘at a discount’ during this crisis. ‘The prices are going to dip just for the next few months,’ she said.”

From Mansion Global on New York. “After four weeks with just two high-end homes going into contract each week, last week saw five homes over $4 million move off the market, according to the weekly Olshan Luxury Market Report. As has become de rigueur, the homes that have gone into contract are on the lower-end of the luxury side, with the median price for these five coming in at $4.5 million. The average discount from the original ask last week was 9% and the average days on market was a staggering 459, according to the report.”

The Durango Herald in Colorado. “The median price of a home in Durango dropped 7%, while the number of sales held relatively stable compared with the first quarter of 2019. In Durango, the number of homes sold in the first quarter increased to 34 from 27 in the same quarter in 2019. The median price dropped from $522,000 in the first quarter of 2019 to $482,000 in the first quarter of 2020. ‘Some feel that a downturn in the economy will affect the real estate market and prices, but we see no indication of that happening,’ said Heather Erb, managing broker at Coldwell Banker Heritage House Realtors.'”

From Miami Agent Magazine. “With the most rapid increase in unemployment in recent memory, it was inevitable that some homeowners would need to hit the pause button on their mortgages. Indeed, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the number of loans in forbearance grew from 0.25% of all loans during the week of March 2 to 5.95% as of April 12. That means more than 3 million homeowners have entered into a formal plan to skip mortgage payments for now.”

“But there may be more waiting in the wings, afraid to move forward. According to a report on National Public Radio’s Morning Edition Friday, some borrowers are not entering into a forbearance agreement due to uncertainty about how funds will be repaid at the end of the forbearance period. The idea of asking struggling homeowners to pay back all missed payments immediately upon ending a forbearance period doesn’t make a lot of sense to Howard Ackerman, vice president of mortgage lending at Regions Mortgage in Chicago.”

“‘I don’t know how a balloon payment would be feasible,’ he said, noting that a borrower would have to have gathered the funds necessary to pay the full amount in a relatively short period of time. ‘If that were the case, you would just be making the mortgage payment.'”

The Californian. “Bakersfield’s home market was on track to finally retake the peak it achieved during the housing bubble. ‘We were expecting 2020 to be a really great year, and spring is the time when most people are holding off to list their homes. And then — boom! — this happens,’ said sales agent Ronda Newport, president of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors.”

“Not only has the crisis wiped out thousands of local jobs across several industries, but the region’s most influential sector, oil production, suffered a major, prelockdown price decline that shows no sign of recovering in the near term. ‘Things were kind of looking good until COVID hit,’ said local appraiser Gary Crabtree.”

“Another trend Newport and Crabtree have noticed is that investors who bought locally during the Great Recession, only to fix up and rent out their new properties, are finally beginning to sell them.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Pending home sales in North Texas are sliding, and asking prices for homes are falling too. The median price of homes listed for sale with area agents was 4.4% lower than at the same time last year.”

“‘Sales in the West and Northeast, regions hit earlier by the coronavirus outbreak and among the first to impose strict social distancing measures, fell dramatically,’ Zillow economist Matthew Speakman said. ‘With widespread shutdowns spreading to the South and other regions toward the end of March, that likely sets the market up for an even worse April. Now, with sales waning, construction projects getting shelved and homebuilders’ confidence plummeting alongside consumers’, the once-hot market for new homes has been put into a deep freeze this spring.'”

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  1. ‘The median price dropped from $522,000 in the first quarter of 2019 to $482,000 in the first quarter of 2020. ‘Some feel that a downturn in the economy will affect the real estate market and prices, but we see no indication of that happening’

    1. Median household incomes in Durango can not support these prices, and there’s only so many rich Texan second home buyers that want to buy in Durango. It’s not a ski “resort” town like Vail or Summit County, but its rental market has been destroyed by the Airbnb parasites.

        1. There aren’t a ton of listings coming to market in Hawaii, but the majority that are were used as short term rentals by mainlanders. Anything from 300K condos to 3M beachfront.

          We have had ~600 cases of beer flu in 2 months. 70%+ recovered, very few needed hospitalization. About a dozen deaths, all of whom contracted it on the mainland or were in the hospital months (!) prior and died, tested for the beer flu and that was marked down as cause of death. 7K+ homeless, no problems. This isn’t even as bad as the seasonal flu, at least in this state.

          Everybody I know is out fishing, surfing, hiking, mountain biking and not giving 2 fks about this – the narrative is dying. We talk about exosomes, bogus models, the whole deal. We went from 3% unemployment to 33%+ – probably more with all the people working under the table. And our dumb azz Gov just extended the “lockdown” for another month based on nothing.

          1. Putting together all the different things I hear and it sounds like corona can be characterized as an “indoor” disease. It almost never transmits outdoors. You pretty much have to share air with an infected person in an enclosed space to get it.

          2. They have to double down on the farce, and you will be told it didn’t hit hard due to the quick action of the gov and mayors.

            Good think they’re getting ready to “flip the switch” on the economy soon…

          3. ” … aren’t a ton of li$tings coming to market in Hawaii, but the majority that are were u$ed as $hort term rental$ by mainlander$. Anything from 300K condos to 3M beachfront$”

            🤔, It’$ a terrible thing when “Everything$.Everywhere’$.Bubble$.Bur$t 💣💥 … in way$ 👾 that are knot ideal.

  2. ‘Not only has the crisis wiped out thousands of local jobs across several industries, but the region’s most influential sector, oil production, suffered a major, prelockdown price decline that shows no sign of recovering in the near term’

    Wait for it…

    ‘Another trend Newport and Crabtree have noticed is that investors who bought locally during the Great Recession, only to fix up and rent out their new properties, are finally beginning to sell them’

    Perfect timing!

  3. https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-flash-housing-market-indicators-week-of-april-20-april-24-2020/

    ‘For the week of April 20 (week 17), purchase loan rate lock activity was 17% below that for week 17 in 2019. However, activity may be down as much as 28% after taking into account that activity in January and February 2020 (weeks 1-8) was running 16% ahead of the same period in 2019.’

    ‘There are important differences across metros. Rate locks in some metros are holding up much better than in others. Detroit, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco have seen large declines.’

    ‘With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we observe important share shifts in the market. Highest quality borrowers are either dropping out of the market or are unable to get non-conforming jumbo loans.’

    ‘At the same time, FHA, VA, and Rural Housing Service borrowers with FICO score below 640 are increasingly unable to get mortgages as lenders tighten up on lending standards.’

    1. Detroit, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco have seen large declines.

      Well there’s a combo you don’t normally see grouped together.

    2. “Highest quality borrowers are either dropping out of the market or are unable to get non-conforming jumbo loans.’
      +
      ‘At the same time, FHA, VA, and Rural Housing Service borrowers with FICO score below 640 are increasingly unable to get mortgages as lenders tighten up on lending standards.’

      So, basically, nobody’s buyin’, even if they wanted to.

      https://news.gallup.com/poll/309215/new-low-say-good-time-buy-house.aspx
      Economy
      April 24, 2020
      New Low in U.S. Say It Is a Good Time to Buy a House
      by Jeffrey M. Jones

      Story Highlights
      – 50% say it is a good time to buy a house; down from 61% last year
      – Drop has been greater among homeowners than renters
      – Sharp decline in percentage expecting local home values to increase

      WASHINGTON, D.C. — “Americans divide evenly on whether it is now a good (50%) or a bad time (49%) to buy a house. The 50% saying it is a good time to purchase a home is the lowest Gallup has measured — two percentage points below the prior low in 2006 amid the [last] housing bubble.“

      1. On a national level this is great news. In my part of Portland, you wouldn’t know it. Irrational as ever.

      2. The people who are dumb enough to buy now can’t get loans, and those smart enough to not want to buy don’t need loans.

        Bottom line: No borrowing, no buying.

        1. “Bottom line: No borrowing, no buying”

          Sounds like a stalemate!

          Kinda like between Wiley.E.Coyote & thee Hard ground$ below ⬇️ the 2,000′ cliff 🔚 … he just step off from.

  4. ‘I don’t know how a balloon payment would be feasible,’ he said, noting that a borrower would have to have gathered the funds necessary to pay the full amount in a relatively short period of time. ‘If that were the case, you would just be making the mortgage payment.’

    At the end of the article:

    ‘Overall, Ackerman said he wants to see others in the industry adopt plans similar to Regions’. “I’m hoping that all of the lenders and servicers out there are going to be reasonable,” he said. “We’re all in this together, and we have to have a humane approach to how we’re going to help each other.”

    See you at the courthouse steps Howard, all together, you are fooked.

    1. “We’re all in this together”

      Actually, we’re not. I’m so sick of hearing this phrase. I’ve been practicing social distancing for over a month now, wearing a mask to the store, but most importantly, paying my rent on time.

      I’m not “in this” with any deadbeat loanowners.

      1. And of course, “how we’re going to help each other.”

        Five years ago I would have fought to “help” people, but now I’m not so sure. There are just too many to help. And that “help” is too expensive. It’s one thing to support the poor who live in efficiency apts/hotel rooms and eat food bank food and possibly take some online education. But I see no reason to support luxury rents, HELOC Escalades, houses with pools, and especially not a “sister and two children [no father in sight].”

          2. This one has factory, not “factory” wheels.

            From what I’ve seen the matriarch mostly drives it around solo.

  5. ‘Chicas, a restaurant server in the Mandalay Bay casino-hotel, was facing foreclosure on his home before the virus shut down the city and the 54-year-old was laid off’

    In default before the virus.

    ‘He immediately ended his cable and internet service to cut his expenses and drained his swimming pool to trim his electric bill’

    A server with a pool.

    ‘He’s still waiting to find out if his home loan modification will be approved and if he’ll get a chance to try to keep his house, while also supporting his sister and her two children, who immigrated to the U.S. from Guatemala. ‘Now when we come back,’ he said, ‘I’m going to be underwater’

    It’s a good thing Freddie Mac let you count that houseful of low wage “renters” toward qualifying, right Victor? You are fooked too.

    1. He probably doesn’t even have a green card.

      And how will a loan modification help him if he’s unemployed?

  6. Coronavirus Hasn’t Stopped MacArthur Park’s Street Food Vendors — Or The Officials Trying To Shut Them Down

    https://laist.com/2020/04/27/coronavirus_hasnt_stopped_macarthur_park_street_food_vendors_law_enforcement_cat_and_mouse.php

    ‘Within days of the city council’s recent edict, investigators from the Department of Public Works began patrolling MacArthur Park in force. At first, they walked around informing vendors of their rights and passing out information about permits. Some vendors brushed off the warnings while others got scared enough to close up shop. Later, investigators began issuing citations, and the number of food vendors in MacArthur Park plummeted.’

    ‘One Friday afternoon in late April, you could feel the tension at 6th and Alvarado. Two BSS investigators were marching up the street. When they reached 6th street, they put on disposable black gloves and confiscated dozens of DVDs from a street vendor, dumping them into the trunk of their Ford.’

    “People have no money, it’s no good,” a middle aged man said as he shook his head and recorded the raid from across the street on his phone. “People need money for rent.”

    But the shutdown lovers say, hurrah for the pain! Let them eat tamales, let’s destroy the economy for no reason!

    1. ‘A conservative lawmaker on Saturday lobbed a new criticism at Gov. Phil Murphy, likening him to a “king” for expanding financial protections for renters during the pandemic. State Sen. Michael Doherty, R-Warren, said Murphy’s executive order on Friday, which allows renters to apply to have their security deposits count toward rent, is unconstitutional. “”We have a governor, and not a king,” Doherty said in a written statement. “On a daily basis, Gov. Phil Murphy continues to eviscerate the New Jersey Constitution.”

      ‘Doherty argues that the order violates a provision of the state constitution that prohibits the Legislature from passing laws that undo existing contracts. Doherty said the order “tears up” leases, which are contracts between tenants and landlords.’

      ‘He said that ending the “shut down of the state’s economy … is the best way to help renters and homeowners pay their bills.” “The residents of New Jersey need to stand up to King Murphy and end this recklessness,” he said.’

      https://nj1015.com/gov-murphy-not-a-king-lawmaker-says-about-new-rent-protection/

    2. Hurrah for the pain, let’s destroy the economy!

      ‘Marin ranchers and farmers who supplied restaurants before the coronavirus pandemic are scrambling to find new buyers during the crisis. “We’re finding that many of our small-scale producers lost 90% to 100% of their restaurant and catering accounts during the ‘shelter in place’,” said Andy Naja-Riese, CEO of the Agricultural Institute of Marin. “As a result, they have had some significant losses in sales.” Those affected most include vegetable farmers and dairy farmers whose milk is used to produce artisan cheeses.’

      “I’ve heard they got hit pretty hard,” said Brian Dolcini, a Nicasio dairyman and president of the Marin County Farm Bureau, regarding the cheese producers. Rick Lafranchi, who operates a dairy farm in Nicasio with a herd of 450 and a creamery store, said, “On the cheese side we have experienced quite a slowdown. Anything that was connected to food service for us has pretty much died. I would say we are off at least 50%.”

      ‘Even before the pandemic, milk prices were in the doldrums. Black said organic milk was selling for a little over $20 per hundredweight and conventional milk was selling for $15 to $16 per hundredweight. All but a few Marin dairies have made the switch to organic. After residents across the nation began staying home to curtail the coronavirus, the price dropped another $2 to $3 per hundredweight. “It doesn’t sound like a lot,” Black said, “but it’s a lot of money for farmers to lose.”

      https://www.marinij.com/2020/04/26/marin-farm-sector-struggles-as-virus-cripples-food-services/

      They probably voted for orange man bad and deserve everything.

      1. Why is the Fed buying housing and collateralized loans, but they won’t buy all this extra food? All it would take is a few checks to local food banks, and the food bank could buy the goods. Milk and meat freeze.

        1. I guess lawmakers forgot to add “give cash to food banks” to their bail out legislations?

        2. In the ’80s the USDA bought surplus milk and turned it into blocks of cheese “product” and distributed it to low income areas. I used to think “government cheese” was just a figure of speech, but it was a real program.

        3. a few checks to local food banks

          Distributing food for free has nothing to do with the “Economy”. There is no profit in it.

          1. That’s why bailout money has to be targeted on food supply chains to prevent farmers from destroying food that could otherwise be used to prevent unemployed households from going hungry.

          2. “Distributing food for free has nothing to do with the “Economy”. There is no profit in it.”

            The peops handing out food are wearing their Che Guevara t-shirt with a Biden 2020 badge. They’re carefully grooming another voter in dependency.

          3. I just hate the idea of wasting food. When I was growing up, we would eat the government cheese at Grandma’s house. It wasn’t great, but it was no worse than the junk food of today.

            There might not be profit in free food, but it might help the unemployed pay a few months of rent.

        4. Leader$hip

          thee.🍊.jesus is tantrum focu$ed on ×2 pending disa$ters @ the $ame time:

          1. Increa$ing thee 📬📦 price$↗️⬆️ for x1 $186+ Billion$aire J. Be$os & x93 $truggling $mall American “bidness” owner$

          2. ⛳🏌️‍♂️🎉 & 🔥🧘‍♂️ & 👁💪🍊📰🤳

        1. -1 Maybe no gangsta in Marin City, but realize that Marin County has some of the nation’s wealthiest investor families and trust fund kids ever sired.

          1. The idea that the wealthy of America vote Republican is extremely outdated. Coastal elites wouldn’t be caught dead in the party of the deplorables.

            Marin County Registrar of Voters
            General Election – November 8, 2016
            Official Final Results

            HILLARY CLINTON DEM 108707 total 77.27%
            DONALD TRUMP REP/AI 21771 total 15.48%

          2. Marin County Registrar of Voters
            General Election – November 8, 2016
            Official Final Results

            HILLARY CLINTON DEM 108707 total 77.27%
            DONALD TRUMP REP/AI 21771 total 15.48%

            No arguing with these data. Thanks!

    3. But the shutdown lovers say, hurrah for the pain! Let them eat tamales, let’s destroy the economy for no reason!

      Oh, there is a reason: to grow the dependent class/Free Sh!t Army. You know they are encouraging renters to refuse to pay the rent this Friday.

      1. You can drive through an Arby’s, but can’t buy from a street vendor? Locally a thrift store owner asked, “you can go to Walmart, but my store is shutdown?”

        1. Locally a thrift store owner asked, “you can go to Walmart, but my store is shutdown?”

          I know, it makes no sense. If anything, there will be hundreds, maybe even 1000+ people in the WalMart or King Soopers, but maybe just a dozen in the thrift shop. Where is one more likely to get infected?

        2. Easy solution: allow all retail except food and beverage to re-open on the condition that you require masks inside the store. With masks, there’s no reason a Home Goods would be any more dangerous than a Wal-mart.

          “maybe even 1000+ people in the WalMart or King Soopers,”

          All the stores around here have limits based on square footage. My local Giant grocery had a limit of 130 people in the store. I had no trouble entering the store at noon on a Saturday. People are leaving their families at home and stocking up instead of buying 1-2 things.

          1. Home Goods

            I affectionately call it the “home crap” store. Full of things you want but don’t really need.

          2. FWIW, a Walmart super center is about 180K square feet. They are allowing 1 customer per 200 square feet. That would be 900 people in a super center.

            So, a 10,000 sq foot Goodwill store could in theory have 50 shoppers at a time.

            So where are you more likely to be under the same roof as a carrier? A WalMart or a Goodwill? Sure, you might be at opposite ends of the store and never come close, or you might be together in the breakfast cereal aisle.

            Anyway, it does seem that smaller businesses are being forced to bear the brunt of the shutdown (don’t tell that to the folks who run Disney’s theme parks, hotels, cruise lines and films). I was surprised that the ACE Hardware store was open on Saturday, and it was doing brisk business.

          5. I affectionately call it the “home crap” store. Full of things you want but don’t really need.

            And realistically you don’t even want it unless they can figure out a way to emotionally trigger you into wanting it for a non-rational reason.

          6. Masks are NOT a security blanket. The virus spreads when someone breathes in exhalation droplets. Without a mask, the droplets travel six feet. With a mask, even a sneeze travels less than two feet. An infected person is less likely to spray a second person, and if the second person wears a mask, he’s less likely to breathe it in.

          7. the droplets travel six feet

            Only in the imagination. Droplets can travel very far if there is any sort of airflow. The 6 ft stay apart thing is supposed to make you feel like you have control over something that you do not control.

            I think the checkout queue at the store is an exercise in futility. If the person in front of you is shedding a cloud of misty infection, when they move up you immediately advance to their station, walking right into their aura.

          8. Spot on, BlueSkye. It’s not like the virus stays within an imaginary 6′ bubble around an infected individual. The whole 6′ of social distancing is a hoax played on the gullible to help reduce their anxiety about venturing out into public.

            World
            Coronavirus Lingers in Air of Crowded Spaces, New Study Finds
            By Marthe Fourcade
            April 27, 2020,
            5:21 AM PDT

            The new coronavirus appears to linger in the air in crowded spaces or rooms that lack ventilation, researchers found in a study that buttresses the notion that Covid-19 can spread through tiny airborne particles known as aerosols.
            …

          9. Hyperbolic Bloomberg title and first paragraph. Not exactly sure how representative this study is either.

            “At two hospitals in Wuhan, China, researchers found bits of the virus’s genetic material floating in the air of hospital toilets, an indoor space housing large crowds, and rooms where medical staff take off protective gear. The study, published Monday in the journal Nature Research, didn’t seek to establish whether the airborne particles could cause infections.”

            “The researchers, led by Ke Lan of Wuhan University, set up so-called aerosol traps in and around two hospitals in the city that was home to the pandemic’s first steps.”

            “They found few aerosols in patient wards, supermarkets and residential buildings. Many more were detected in toilets and two areas that had large crowds passing through, including an indoor space near one of the hospitals.”

        3. “you can go to Walmart, but my store is shutdown?”

          I asked the same thing. My favorite junk shop is shuttered, while Walmart is wide open. I could understand leaving the food and pharmacy departments open, but they never shut down all the other departments. I can buy a computer or underwear or housewares or whatever WalMart carries. Meanwhile, if the junk shop opens up, there’s a good chance the local constabulary will come calling.

          Something just stinks about the whole corona crash.

          Anyway, hi, everyone. Long time, no see. Hope you are all doing well.

          3. Meanwhile, if the junk shop opens up, there’s a good chance the local constabulary will come calling.

            The cops know who collects the sales tax that funds them, and it isn’t the local junk shop.

          4. Palmy welcome back! How are you doing? Update please. 🙂

            Our Best Buy is open to buy computers too, though weirdly it was staffed by their warehouse guys instead of salespeople. There must be some loophole. Apparently tvs are essential too because they said every one was sold, even the display models.

    4. “let’s de$troy the economy for no rea$on$!”

      Oh, there’$ rea$on$, plenty actually.

      Thee 💪eCONomy wa$ a myth

      Thee 💪$helter.$hack.price$ was a myth

      Thee 💪 Wall.$treet.$tocks.Valuation$ was a myth

      Thee 💪$helter.$hack.$hack.$hortages was a myth

      Thee $Trillion$+ (+Blood) make💪Nation.Building$ of Afghani$tan & Iraq$ was a myth

      Thee opioid$ are a 💪 Wonder$ drug! was a myth

      Thee 💪wanker.non.banker$ .knot.$ub.prime was a myth

      Here’$ another repre$entative Myth: … Thee Phoenix

      There is no known way to kill a Phoenix, although the fact it was known that they can bur$t upon death, implies there are other way$ to kill$ them. … Teleportation$ – Phoenixe$ can di$appear and reappear$ at will in bur$ts of flame$ and take whoever is holding them along.

      It repre$ents tran$formation, death$, and rebirth in it$ fire. As a powerful $piritual totem, the phoenix is the ultimate $ymbol of 💪$trength and renewal$.

      🤔, It’$ a terrible thing when “Everything$.Everywhere’$.Bubble$.Bur$t 💣💥 … in way$ 👾 that are knot ideal.

  7. “We Were Expecting 2020 To Be A Really Great Year, And Then — Boom! — This Happens”

    “Suffering has been stronger than all other teaching, and has taught me to understand what your heart used to be. I have been bent and broken, but – I hope – into a better shape.” ― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

    “In a word, I was too cowardly to do what I knew to be right, as I had been too cowardly to avoid doing what I knew to be wrong.” ― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

    “The broken heart. You think you will die, but you just keep living, day after day after terrible day.” ― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

    “Ask no questions, and you’ll be told no lies.” ― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations [or any Realtor 🙂 ]

    “I have been bent and broken, but – I hope – into a better shape.” ― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

    “Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There’s no better rule.” ― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

    – And finally, I’m throwing in one of my all time favorites from a different story, but still apropos…

    “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.” – Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, English novelist (1812 – 1870)

    – Cheers!

  8. “Victor Chicas, a restaurant server in the Mandalay Bay casino-hotel, was facing foreclosure on his home before the virus shut down the city and the 54-year-old was laid off.”

    In deep doo doo even before losing your job? It was a good thing everyone put 20% down with 700+ score, and 6 month cash reserve in the bank.

    1. “…and 6 month cash reserve in the bank…”

      I am constantly amazed how close to the edge some people live.

      Now, I know nothing about this particular gentlemen, Victor Chicas, but it would be of no surprise that he has the latest iphone and blinged out SUV and probably plenty of credit card debt.

      Just an observation about choices and priorities that people make in life.

      1. I am constantly amazed how close to the edge some people live.

        Not even a 401K they could raid in an emergency. When I ask people if they are saving anything in their 401K, they say they can’t, no money to spare. And yet, like you said, they have the latest iPhone and a fancy SUV. They laugh when I show them my $140 Motorola phone, and when they see my 7 year old car, they must think I’m really broke.

        1. “They laugh”

          Keep laughing, debt donkeys. The odometer on my 8 year old Subaru just hit 100K miles. I’ll keep it until 150-175K.

          My previous Honda died just north of 225K miles, I kept it a bit too long and it turned into a money pit.

          1. Now that I’ve been WFH for 3 years now, I put 3-4K on the odometer in a year. It’s gonna last me forever.

          2. My 14 year old Prius has 212K miles. I’m going for 350K miles. My 1999 Volvo made it to 306K miles. My 1980 Mercedes diesel had over 450K miles and was still running strong (just not stopping or steering so well) when I sold it.

        2. Hey, I love the moto G7. I tried several iPhones and Galaxies but they drove me nuts. Couldn’t even word wrap a blog.

          1. I like my G7 Play. It has a fingerprint sensor to unlock it, as opposed to the trendier and pricier phones with retinal scanners.

          2. I believe that once you install a banking app the phone’s security setting “must use a pin code” to unlock it, not the bio-metric sensors. No jailbreak or root access phones either.

          4. “Why would I do that?”

            It makes some things easier particularly depositing checks via front and rear image uploads. On the road, the access is convenient.

          6. I do all of my billing remittances on-line these days. Some of the vendors get checks sent by the bank, but most of them have inter-bank transfers, less than 24-hrs.

          7. I should also note that all credit, debit account activity and credit card charges and credits have a notification sent to my phone. I also use Authy 2FA authenticator or receive a text for all account login activity that include camera permissions. I have a yubikey neo should something have to my phone. I was a scada guy in a previous life.

      2. You’re making assumptions…I’m sure Victor comes home from a hard day of waiting tables, and lives a simple life relaxing at his backyard pool.

  10. Like Ireland, said he wishes his employer would pay him through the shutdown but disagrees with the mayor’s call to reopen Las Vegas.

    “Life is more important than anything else,” he said. “You’re not going to buy life with money.”

    Chicas, this isn’t the socialism sh*thole country you came from. Everyone is expected to save their money for a rainy day. Bailouts are only for the rich.

    1. As with the street vendors, why not let those who want to work, work? If Victor wants to hide under his bed and starve with his children, that’s his choice. If the street vendors want to work and not starve, that’s theirs. No need for a “task force”.

      There are two things that make this country a great place to live. Freedom, and the standard of living. We are in the process of screwing up both.

      1. “Freedom, and the standard of living.”

        Maybee, Thee $tandard of living$ was ba$ed upon too much freedom$:

        “Hey do you need to borrow$ some low intere$t monie$ to purcha$e, a over.price$.$helter.$hack?

        No problemo$!

      2. I agree, let anyone that wants to and can work, work… Long as they follow the same protocol as the rest whats the big deal? Plenty of day laborers and beat up dump run / hauling trucks at my local home depot… in fact probably more than normal.

  11. “Another trend Newport and Crabtree have noticed is that investors who bought locally during the Great Recession, only to fix up and rent out their new properties, are finally beginning to sell them.”

    Sssssshhhhhhh….dont try to sell them all at once. Someone here is trying to short the market. Dont worry, I ll bring the lubricant. Just gently apply it into the asshole. After a few months, the pain will go away…I think.

    1. Yeah, but when? I’m waiting to buy.

      When will the S&P 500 drop below the March 23rd close?

          2. Trump and the Fed will pull out all the stops to keep the stock bubble going ’til November. After that, all bets are off.

          3. Eamonn, I agree. In fact that’s what I was predicting would happen until Coronavirus came along. I think with social distancing and masks and possibly a treatment, we’ll have one more sucker’s rally by late summer. Then the second wave is going to come and destroy everything by Christmas.

    2. Now is the time to buy oil-related assets, as long as they don’t have a nearterm expiration date, as the highly-leveraged HODLers are exiting like a crowd from a burning theater.

      “Buy when everyone is selling…”

      The Financial Times
      Oil futures
      US crude prices tumble as world’s largest oil ETF cuts stake
      West Texas Intermediate settles 25% lower a week after sub-zero dive
      An aerial view of the oil storage facility at Cushing, Oklahoma, where an acute lack of space has put pressure on US oil prices
      © Tom Pennington/Getty Images
      Harry Dempsey, Philip Stafford and David Sheppard in London 58 minutes ago

      US oil prices fell sharply on Monday after the world’s largest oil-backed exchange traded fund began offloading all its short term contracts on fears of another plunge into negative territory.

      West Texas Intermediate, the US oil price benchmark, fell below $0 last week for the first time ever in response to the slump in global demand for fuel triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.

      The benchmark has recovered since last week’s fall, when sellers were paying buyers to take oil off their hands, moving back into positive territory.

      But it fell sharply again on Monday when United States Oil Fund, the largest oil ETF, said it would sell all its futures contracts for the delivery of oil in June — 20 per cent of its $3.6bn portfolio — over a four-day period. WTI settled about 25 per cent lower at $12.78 a barrel, following the regulatory filing by the fund.

      The latest fall underscores how speculative trading can disrupt an increasingly fragile oil market while demand for the plentiful commodity is so depressed.

      Oil futures do not trade like equities because contracts expire each month as buyers take physical delivery of the crude. Last week’s plunge to negative prices came the day before the May WTI contract expired, with the June contract now the most actively traded.

      “By selling shorter-dated future contracts and investing into longer-dated contracts, they are putting pressure on the front WTI contract,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at UBS.
      …

      2. I had the USO on my prospectus but luckily watched a yt with george gammon and was convinced not to jump aboard that titanic. Overall im negative on all my stock / etf investments over the last 20 years. Guess that shows im not to good at that type of investment (gamble). Only money i have made investing was in my last home sale and interest accounts, ill stick to those and get back in when the timing is right.

  14. “You$ can run$🏃‍♂️🏃‍♀️, but you$ can’t hide$!
    (Might be a fitting $logan for $tock.Market$ un$inkable.$tocks & their future$ Earning$)

    Industrie$ / Clothing / Textile$;

    Adida$ report$ 95% profit fall in fir$t quarter

    MarketWatch / Published: April 27, 2020 / By Olivia Bugault

    Adidas AG said Monday that net profit and sales sharply fell in its first quarter, and it warned that the $econd quarter should be even more $everely hit by the coronaviru$ pandemic.

    Adidas warned that its second quarter will be even more affected by the coronavirus as more than 70% of its stores are currently closed. “Consequently, both top-line and bottom-line declines in the second quarter of 2020 are currently expected to be more pronounced than those recorded in the first quarter, with currency-neutral sales projected to come in more than 40% below the prior year level and the operating result to be negative,”

    Adidas said that sales in Greater China are still gradually recovering

    1. sorry – my addition point is that as bad as single family housing will get in the next 12 months, commercial will be much worse. Hope these guys have deep pockets (as if)

    2. the fighting between REITS and the retailers is starting. If you are a mall owner – do you have to go municipal court and start eviction process on the retail chain. Or is there something that implies eviction in the lease agreement (i.e. being behind 120 days in rent)

      —–
      “We are working with [small businesses] quite sympathetically because with our balance sheet we can afford to,” he said, noting independent retailers represent about 15 per cent of RioCan’s overall revenue.

      “Some of the larger tenants – I think they have larger balance sheets than ours – just didn’t pay.”

      Sonshine added it was “largely American” ​tenants, such as office supply chain Staples Inc., who failed to pay their rent April 1 despite their strong balance sheets and a significant amount of business being replaced through e-commerce.

      “So with them, we’re sort of taking the gloves off as we roll into the end of April,” he said.

      https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/riocan-reit-taking-the-gloves-off-with-larger-tenants-failing-to-pay-rent-ceo-1.1427702?fbclid=IwAR29tMbj-QIYWLZJoSZ80P1XZLJbRadbW2MZ76aup3bDXpqw8K21fvbEfxQ

    3. If REITs are not paid – what happens to the folks that own them like Pension funds?

      Given the number of dead malls around the country, I would say this problem isn’t new.

    4. About two weeks ago here on the HBB there was Vanity magazine piece from Bethany McLean regarding REITs, private equity firms and their investors like EFT and large pension groups. Worth reading!

  16. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/coronavirus-homebuilders-see-sales-jump-as-renters-flee-urban-apartments.html

    “We’re still down roughly 65%, but more positive news is coming out of the new home market, particularly for builders who are targeting the first time and entry level buyers,” said Devyn Bachman, manager of research at JBRC. She noted that a wave of renters are leaving their apartments and eyeing new homes.

    Shouldn’t have built all those luxury, high-end units for the money launders from China. The demands have always been with affordable housing.

    1. go Diana go …

      wadda cherry pick fed govt areas like Maryland and N. Virgina to extrapolate to the entire country

  17. Everything i$ 🍑y $plendid!

    Inve$ting $tocks:

    Opinion: Investor$ have $5.1 Trillion$ hiding out in the $hares of five companie$, which will be te$ted this week.

    MarketWatch / Published: April 27, 2020 / By Nigam Arora

    The companie$’ earning$ report$ will be interpreted through the len$ of confirmation bia$

    • Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Facebook are about to report earning$. Investors’ expectation$ are high. More important than the earnings will be what the companies say about the future. I will be carefully listening to the conference call$.

    It is important for investor$ to remember that CEO$ are highly incentivized to keep their $tock price$ high.

    • Human beings tend to $uffer from confirmation bia$. The people who are putting big monie$ into the five stocks mentioned above are not any different. Expect them to look at the earnings reports with the bias that they want the companie$’ stock$ to ri$e.

    The te$t:

    What happens next to the stock market will depend on this $5.1 Trillion$ hideout cave holding $trong or crumbling. Beware that the impact on the stock market will not be about the fact$ but will mostly depend on the confirmation bias of investors.

  18. Ben and the hbb crowd has been right. Some of these houses are more than half off. They have been on the market for a loooooooong time. The taxes alone will kill you. The taxes are forever.

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4183-Henneberry-Rd_Manlius_NY_13104_M92414-19130?view=qv

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/6105-Aylesbury-Path_Manlius_NY_13104_M41135-25200?cid=local_expert_city_rdc&lex_assetId=02i3a000007urUBAAY&lex_advertiserId=128360&lex_id=1b5977e0-e9a9-40cb-a16c-0a94dde4683e

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4896-Tanglewood-Ln_Manlius_NY_13104_M33993-88864?view=qv

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8394-Salt-Springs-Rd_Manlius_NY_13104_M33329-43688?view=qv

    06/15/2018 Listed $1,100,000 $261 Syracuse
    05/20/2017 Price Changed $1,199,900 $284 Syracuse
    05/19/2017 Listed $1,900,900 $451 Syracuse

    1. Actually I really like the house on Salt Springs road. Two indoor kitchens and an outdoor kitchen, yum yum. That would be a fine house for a doctor or lawyer to entertain in… if it were in a state with lower taxes.

      The one on Henneberry is awful! Baseboard heating (in NY??) and no A/C. It was built in 1985 and nothing has been done to it at all. I didn’t even know that jacuzzi tubs came in maroon. 👣 Zillow gives it an estimate of $340K and I can see why.

      1. Actually I really like the house on Salt Springs road.

        Me too! $400K addition and a bizarre price history.

        02/08/2020 Listed $699,900 $127 Syracuse
        08/27/2019 Sold $175,000 $42 Public Record
        05/28/2019 Listed $729,900 $132 Syracuse
        10/26/2018 Listed $999,000 $181 Syracuse
        06/15/2018 Listed $1,100,000 $261 Syracuse
        05/20/2017 Price Changed $1,199,900 $284 Syracuse
        05/19/2017 Listed $1,900,900 $451 Syracuse

    1. When I interviewed for jobs in 2017, I would take a hard look at the business model of some places that contacted me for interviews, and even back then I wondered how did they manage to make payroll and pay the bills. Some of these places didn’t know where their next meal was coming from, and yet they were hiring.

      I guess since it’s normal for brogrammers to change jobs every year, they didn’t care if the firm suddenly folded.

  20. “Evidence from Utah home listings suggests some homeowners are pulling back. A few are panic selling…

    Well, as long as it’s just a few, there’s nothing to worry about, right? So you stick your guns on your wish pricing, greedheads. No need to give that shack away.

    1. Utah prices were already cratering last summer, as my inlaws unfortunately discovered while buying another used home before selling the currently owned one.

  21. ‘The prices are going to dip just for the next few months,’ she said.”

    Not sure if this is wishful thinking or standard realtor dissembling. Randi may actually be dumb enough to believe this.

  23. Here come words of comfort for HODLers who suspect they caught themselves a falling knife. In short, don’t market time by selling the dip or buying the rally.

    Key Words
    This is the greatest mistake an investor can make, according to the founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund
    Published: April 27, 2020 at 2:58 p.m. ET
    By Shawn Langlois
    Ray Dalio Bloomberg

    ‘The greatest mistake of all investors is to think that what has done well lately is a better investment rather than more expensive. And what has done worse lately is the worst investment — get me out of it! — rather than it’s cheap.’

    That’s Ray Dalio, the billionaire behind Bridgewater Associates, talking about where investors tend to go wrong in the stock market.

    “Unless you know how to deal with the differences of those, which most people don’t, they’re going to be in trouble,” he said in a Ted Talk appearance earlier this month.

    In the clip, which was highlighted on the “Investor Talk” YouTube channel over the weekend, Dalio also revisited his much-covered “cash is trash” argument.

    “Do not think that cash is a safe investment,” he explained in the interview. “Cash is a seductive investment because it doesn’t have as much volatility, but it taxes you in your buying power about 2% a year. So cash is almost always the worst investment.”

    Instead, he said, investors should think unconventionally.

    “Do you have a little bit of gold… in case this monetary system breaks down and money is redefined,” he said. “Diversify well, be humble, don’t market time and be conscious of the dangers of cash.”
    …

    1. “…don’t market time by selling the dip…”

      Is this permissible if the HODLer faces margin calls on his leveraged gambles?

  24. ‘Some feel that a downturn in the economy will affect the real estate market and prices, but we see no indication of that happening,’ said Heather Erb, managing broker at Coldwell Banker Heritage House Realtors.’”

    It has nothing to do with feelings, Heather. It’s a cold hard fact backed by data.

    1. To be fair to Heather, prices soared into the stratosphere from coast to coast, despite the cold hard fact backed by data that it was becoming unaffordable and was unsustainable.

      Of course, as we know: manias inflate prices and panics deflate them.

    1. Vice News used to be interesting back in the day. Now it’s as predictably Deep State left as Salon dot com (Salon in its heyday used to publish columns by David Horowitz and Camille Paglia, how far they have sadly fallen…)

    1. NJ Teacher Screams at Kids in Park, Says She Hopes They “Die” of Coronavirus”

      I don’t know why but this makes me laugh 😉

      I tried to go to the beach yesterday in Ventura and half of LA county was there , License plate holders with Marina Del Ray, Malibu, etc. so I passed. All the parking lots were closed but the streets were jammed.

      1. “All the parking lots were closed but the streets were jammed.”

        I wonder if the genius politicians who decided to open beaches but not parking lots knew that would happen?

    3. Comments are gold. If they don’t end the lockdown soon there might be a big purge of Karens everywhere, lol.

      1. “If they don’t end the lockdown soon there might be a big purge of Karen$ everywhere”

        $@d. xaoh.👾$ad.

  28. Professor Knut Wittkowski, for twenty years head of The Rockefeller University’s Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, says that social distancing and lockdown is the absolutely worst way to deal with an airborne respiratory virus.

    https://youtu.be/lGC5sGdz4kg

    2. I don’t want to listen to 40 minutes, but the comments imply that he’s in favor of herd immunity and burning this out. This is a known strategy. It just depends on how high you want your death rate to be.

      1. “This is a known strategy. It just depends on how high you want your death rate to be”

        Faux.xaoh.deeth.👾.killa.germ$ 📰!

        📣🎙”it’s just the common.cold folks!!!

      2. This is a known strategy.

        Apparently it doesn’t matter if we have a faux lockdown or not. NYC shows that the virus burns out in 4 weeks or so “just like any flu” despite lockdown. Just about nobody is really isolating. Most of the houses on my street have an extra car show up regularly. We all go to the grocery store to get a bit of socialization regularly.

        1. Interesting how the difference in rates between states isn’t that pronounced anymore. Most hover around 30% +/- 5

      1. Hi, jeff. I hope you and yours are well and got through it all OK.

        Did you sell your house and make some bux?

        1. Nope still here with my youngest daughter. She is in Nursing school at a local college, I will revisit relocating once she has her degree with no student loan debt.

          Anyway once again, really good to see you.

          1. You’re probably right, and likely no wiring either. I’ve seen old fixers that have real hardwood flooring, but the bathroom floors are always rotted and need replacing. Don’t forget that Inglewood is due West within spitting distance.

    3. Flip Flop???

      Status Date Price Change Source
      Listed Apr 23, 2020 $379,999 +8.6% # 20-573178
      Sold Aug 11, 2017 $350,000 — # CV17072747
      Sold Aug 11, 2017 $350,000 +1.4% # CV17072747
      Pending May 18, 2017 — — # CV17072747
      Pending May 18, 2017 — — # CV17072747
      Listed May 15, 2017 $345,000 -2.8% # CV17072747
      Listed May 15, 2017 — — # CV17072747
      Hold May 12, 2017 — — # CV17072747
      Cancelled Apr 14, 2017 — — # IV17022472

      1. Similar houses listed for 499K. At the current prices, there is no margin for errors. However, this looks like a Noob flipper and it will be costly to undo some mistakes. Maybe offer $250k LOL

  30. “Hey Palmy. What you been up to?”

    Blue Skye, there wasn’t a reply button for your question, so I’m answering here, hoping you’ll see it.

    Been renting here in North Central Florida ever since the move up from the Tampa Bay area. Not bad, actually. Best weather I’ve experienced in all the years I’ve lived in the state. I did have some stuff I had to deal with, and things looked dicey there for a while, but I am out of it just fine. Still gig jobbing it and pitching pennies selling stuff on line. Got involved with the conservative blog-o-sphere for a while there, the end result being that I am now No Party Affiliation. Whew. What a scene. Much of it is just as bad as the other side, agenda driven, full of drivel propaganda and just as manipulative as the commie stuff.

    Anyway, looking forward to all the crater news. How about you? Will you be travelling the inland sea this summer?

    2. Palmy,

      So sorry to hear you got into toxic politics! Glad there is life on the other side.

      I have about a month’s worth of projects to do on the boat but then I definitely want to be out cruising. The Erie Canal is reluctant to open the locks at the moment. I hope that changes soon. The Great Lakes are all still in flood stage, even above last year’s record level, but if that is our new normal we’ll learn how to deal with it. I’ll find some way, even if it is only day sailing on my home lake.

      I was having some success selling my art in a gallery here until such things were deemed dangerous and closed. (I’m retired now.)

    3. “Got involved with the conservative blog-o-sphere for a while there, the end result being that I am now No Party Affiliation. Whew. What a scene.”

      Welcome to political No Man’s Land, and back to the HBB!

    1. Dang it, jeff. I knew about Shannon, I just now found out about Colleen. I am so sorry. Great song. Van Morrison has a way of putting things like no one else.

      1. Thank you palmetto, Colleen passed in December 2018. Ben is kind enough to let me send messages to my two girls on special days and a couple of times when I just missed them.

        Anyhow, seeing your name certainly brightened my day and I look forward to reading your posts.

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