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Suffering Unprecedented Losses, Sellers Need To Unload Homes That Are No Longer Producing Income

A report from the Washington Post. “Prospective home buyers and homeowners who want to refinance should anticipate more stringent documentation requirements, tighter credit standards and more limited choices for loans due to the quick financial downturn from the economic shutdown. Lenders now also need to help an influx of borrowers who can’t pay their mortgages. ‘We hit a perfect storm in mid-March,’ says Hope Morgan, branch manager of Mortgage Network in Salisbury, Md. ‘We all started to work from home and were worried about how to deal with low rates. Then everything changed and new rules started to come out.'”

“The Mortgage Network raised its minimum required FICO credit score for a mortgage to 660 for most loans, with a 640 score allowed on some FHA loans, says Morgan. ‘Our role is to put consumers in the best position to repay their loan and employment is critical to that,’ says Jeff McGuiness, chief sales officer of Embrace Home Loans in St. Louis. ‘A leading indicator of someone who may have trouble keeping up with loan payments is their FICO credit score. Historically, we’ve approved loans for borrowers with a FICO score as low as 580, but now because of the economic instability most lenders are adjusting their minimum to a 640 score.'”

“Some lenders are eliminating their low down-payment programs. JP Morgan Chase, for example, now requires a down payment of 20 percent — up from 3 percent — and raised its minimum credit score for new mortgages to 700. ‘Documentation standards are tightening, too, particularly for employment verification,’ says McGuiness. ‘We’re looking at income and employment the day before a closing and sometimes on the closing day. We don’t want to put our customers in a position where they can’t repay the loan.'”

“Guaranteed Rate also raised its minimum credit score slightly to 640 and added a requirement for borrowers to have at least two and sometimes four months of mortgage payments, including principal, interest, taxes and insurance, in the bank.”

“Home buyers and homeowners refinancing in high-cost housing markets may have a harder time finding a jumbo loan, which is a loan for an amount above the limits set for conventional loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In a high-cost housing market such as the Washington region, the loan limit is $765,600. ‘There are 50 to 60 percent fewer jumbo loans available right now,’ says Moffitt.”

“Moffitt says lenders are also more fearful of possible forbearance on these loans, which have larger monthly payments. ‘Borrowers who need a jumbo loan will have fewer choices, so they’re likely to see higher rates and need a bigger down payment and a higher FICO score,’ says McGuiness.”

From KPTV in Oregon. “Kate Fulford, a realtor in Portland, says there’s been a shift, and she believes it’s all linked to the pandemic. ‘A buyer that seemed stable and a transaction that seemed on track could definitely shift late in the game,’ Fulford said. ‘I think you have to be careful right now, just because you have an appraisal on a home doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily worth that full value,’ Ferguson Wellman financial advisor, Mary Lago said. ‘But at the same time if you’re planning to live in that home for a while, you don’t need to worry about it as much.'”

From Sandiego.com in California. “The city of San Diego has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. Landlords who still have mortgages on their rental properties are in a pickle. There are mortgage companies offering financial relief, but this barely scratches the surface for landlords who have multiple properties (not to mention, their own) to manage.”

“Many landlords who are behind on their mortgage are in a dangerous situation as property prices are going down, they are risking to go ‘underwater’ or ‘upside-down’ on their mortgage. This means that they will not be able to sell their property for enough money to pay off the debt to the lender and avoid foreclosure.”

“For those interested in investing in real estate, there are now more opportunities than ever. It’s a buyer’s market as property values drop to an all-time low. Investors could stand to get properties in some of San Diego’s hottest and most prominent neighborhoods at a very good price. For those who are looking to take advantage of the situation and acquire a duplex or triplex near the beach for a lower price than usual, this period might be a good opportunity. The prices are going down, specifically in Hillcrest, North Park, and City Heights.”

From Your Basin in Texas. “According to Connie Coots, the CEO of the Odessa Board of Realtors, we are now in a buyers market, meaning buyers have the upper hand as of right now when it comes to buying a house. ‘Buyers have a little more leverage over sellers right now as far as more demand we have around 429 homes on the market right now,’ said Coots.”

“However, just because there are more homes on the market for potential buyers doesn’t mean sellers are willing to bring down their prices just yet and it’s all going to depend on the economy in the upcoming weeks. ‘When I say it’s a buyers market I just mean that they have a larger pool to pull from not that their values have started to come down because we have not started to see appraisals coming in low yet. It’s a volatile market, we’re waiting to see just like everyone else is. We’re not really sure what’s going to happen we’re waiting to see what the oil prices are going to do,’ said the realtor.”

“She said buyers who are interested should talk to a lender, have a realtor in Odessa and a realtor in Midland because the markets are different, and make sure your credit score is between 640 and 740. ‘There is a lot of opportunity as far as homes being on the market but but you have to make sure you have your finances in order because the credit has tightened up a little bit.'”

From CBS 5 in Arizona. “Owners of short-term rental properties are suffering unprecedented losses, as the flood of tourists that normally descends upon the Phoenix area every spring dried up almost overnight. ‘I am actually surprised that this is happening so quickly,’ said Greg Hague, a real estate broker and attorney, who owns Hague Partners and 72Sold. Hague says his company has listed many former short-term rentals in the past month, representing sellers who need to unload homes that are no longer producing income.”

“‘The damage is done because they missed the season by having these bookings cancel immediately. And it’s very tough to rent Airbnbs in the summer in Arizona for obvious reasons,’ said Hague.”

“Hundreds of homeowners and investors poured millions of dollars into expensive mortgages across the Phoenix area, banking on the idea that these rentals would pay the bills and then some – every month. But according to the website, airdna.co, 90% of the global short-term rental units that had been reserved for this week, were canceled.”

“The turn of events has affected investors like Kory Wenzel, who owns three rental properties in the Phoenix area. Two of them are short-term rentals. The third is a traditional long-term rental. ‘It should be survivable just being supplemental income. But for those who are doing it as a business, it might not be survivable,’ said Wenzel.”

From Short Term Rentalz on New York. “A year to the day after acquiring ten floors at 75 Rockefeller Plaza in New York to operate ‘high-end apartment-style suites with a diverse mix of amenities,’ Airbnb is cancelling its agreement with landlords RXR Realty at the proposed development. Owing to to fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, plans to create 200 luxury hotel rooms and suites have been shelved at the 33-storey skyscraper in the centre of New York City, due to dwindling hotel revenues and rising availability rates, according to Business Insider.”

The Wall Street Journal. “SoftBank Group Corp. said steeper-than-expected losses on office-share firm WeWork pushed its expected net loss for the latest fiscal year to around ¥900 billion ($8.4 billion)—$1.4 billion more than it announced just two weeks ago. The Japanese tech conglomerate, best known for its $100 billion Vision Fund, revised the estimate as it scrambles to calculate the hit to its bottom line from souring investments before it releases earnings on May 18 for the year ended March 31.”

“The deeper loss comes from SoftBank’s multibillion-dollar rescue of We Co., the parent of WeWork, whose value cratered last year after investors turned wary of the company’s highflying chief executive and heavy-spending business model. SoftBank earlier this month canceled another part of that bailout—an offer to buy up to $3 billion of WeWork shares from early investors and employees including the company’s former chief executive, Adam Neumann—saying the company hadn’t met conditions needed for the sale. That also left WeWork without a further $1.1 billion in debt financing that was contingent upon the share sale.”

“The added loss from the WeWork rescue is pushing the total loss from investments on SoftBank’s books to more than $9.4 billion during the year ended March 31, versus the $7.5 billion SoftBank had announced earlier this month, the company said.”

“That loss is on top of a previously announced fiscal-year investment loss of $16.6 billion at the Vision Fund—the world’s biggest tech-investment vehicle—as the economic downturn sparked by the coronavirus pandemic pummels money-losing startups that were already under pressure to bolster results.”

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This Post Has 173 Comments

  1. ‘pushed its expected net loss for the latest fiscal year to around ¥900 billion ($8.4 billion)—$1.4 billion more than it announced just two weeks ago’

    Off to money heaven.

  3. ‘There are mortgage companies offering financial relief, but this barely scratches the surface for landlords who have multiple properties (not to mention, their own) to manage. Many landlords who are behind on their mortgage are in a dangerous situation as property prices are going down, they are risking to go ‘underwater’ or ‘upside-down’ on their mortgage. This means that they will not be able to sell their property for enough money to pay off the debt to the lender and avoid foreclosure’

    Looks like there aren’t gold nuggets in those California dirt driveways after all.

  4. ‘we have around 429 homes on the market right now,’…‘When I say it’s a buyers market I just mean that they have a larger pool to pull from not that their values have started to come down because we have not started to see appraisals coming in low yet’

    I’d bet the sales are in single digits. Everybody out there knows it’s boom and bust and are clear which one is staring them in the face.

  5. ‘I think you have to be careful right now, just because you have an appraisal on a home doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily worth that full value…But at the same time if you’re planning to live in that home for a while, you don’t need to worry about it as much’

    From financial advisor Mary Lago.

      1. “…Does the passage of time cure financial suicide…?’

        It does, if you have a one-hundred year time horizon.

  6. ‘Guaranteed Rate also raised its minimum credit score slightly to 640 and added a requirement for borrowers to have at least two and sometimes four months of mortgage payments, including principal, interest, taxes and insurance, in the bank’

    Twice in two days we’ve seen this.

    ‘We’re looking at income and employment the day before a closing and sometimes on the closing day. We don’t want to put our customers in a position where they can’t repay the loan’

    What they are saying is borrowers who knew they had been canned would still let the loan go through. Wouldn’t that be fraud?

    Jingle? Jingle?

    Bueller?

    2. We don’t want to put our customers in a position where they can’t repay the loan

      It’s so kind of you to be so worried about your customer’s welfare.

      1. We don’t want to put our customers in a position where they can’t repay the loan

        You could always pay cash and skip the loan. Just a thought.

    3. Guaranteed Rate is the next Quicken Loans. When I saw they were tightening credit, my ears really perked up.

    4. It seems the bankers have taken away the subprime mortgage umbrella at the very moment it started raining foreclosures.

  7. “Historically, we’ve approved loans for borrowers with a FICO score as low as 580, but now because of the economic instability most lenders are adjusting their minimum to a 640 score.”

    Anyone with a 640 FICO also has a spotty employment history too. Think 10-steps forward and 8-backward, or losing an oar; they don’t go anywhere.

      1. above a trash loan

        The bubble market was propped up by padding these lower layers of the loan market. Take them out and the layers above pancake down into the trash loan category automatically, because of the prices paid.

  8. COVID-19 versus flu data from John Hopkins University:

    Infections

    COVID-19: Approximately 3,207,248 cases worldwide; 1,040,488 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 30, 2020.*

    Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

    Deaths

    COVID-19: Approximately 228,057 deaths reported worldwide; 60,999 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 30, 2020.*

    Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
    …
    Take homes:

    1) After a couple of months, the COVID-19 death toll is at the high end of full-year U.S. flu deaths in a bad flu season.

    2) Flu is fatal in about 1 in 1000 cases, versus a fatality rate of around 60 in 1000 cases for COVID-19.

    1. The flu has been around for how long? None of us had exposure to this previously. If flu had never existed and then went into the population, what would be the outcome? These things happen. Especially if you have open borders with bat-munching, virus splicing idiots.

      I’m glad to say Arizona citizens are already putting together an referendum that would prohibit guberment ever doing a shutdown again. Tomorrow I can go to the dentist again! How wonderfully arbitrary. Today I would die, tomorrow I can have some lady up to her elbow in my mouth. What a bunch of horse-sh!t.

      1. Good thing you are not in charge of anything, and that the “referendum” will go nowhere.

        2. not in charge of anything

          He’s in charge of ridding his platform of nasty ankle-biters.

          1. I got an email from my dry cleaner that they will open May 4th. May 3rd, we’re all gonna die! May 4th, not so much.

      2. For a lot of former sheeple, the involuntary lockdowns and arbitrary, capricious COVID-19 mitigation measures are going to be an a-ha moment. They will also note which party is most identified with all these Nanny State infringements on their liberties.

        1. I keep hoping for that, yet I fear that come November they will dutifully pull the D lever in the voting booth.

        2. capricious COVID-19 mitigation measures Every state legislature and the Congress need to discuss future such measures in great detail, starting now. But we all know this will not happen. One thing is sure: All members of various US legislatures will continue to receive their bennies.

      3. There’s a dozen cops patrolling a popular area that’s now declared “off limits” by these edict issuing asswipe public executives……. and a 100,000 people wanting to go to that popular area.

        Who’s gonna win?

        Take back your country. Take back what is rightly yours.

        1. LOL, he’s just upset because he’s not making money selling cars right now. I’d be wary of interpreting this as some noble gesture in support of freedom, etc.

        2. Selective outrage and only because Newsom won’t allow him to open the Fremont plant. Talk about biting the hand that feeds him.

          https://twitter.com/evdefender/status/1255645724739538945:

          .@elonmusk calls US government response to COVID-19 “fascist” while praising China on the same day he held a private conference call with the CCP owners of Tesla Shanghai

          Reminder: The CCP welded people in their homes and literally hunted those who had bought Tylenol

      6. it’s been a couple weeks since the protests at the Michigan capitol; has there been a spike in cases? That’s what they should be looking at.
        Maryland is on masked lockdown with no end in sight. The case rate hasn’t decreased, but that might be due to rampant spread at nursing homes. Hoping to see some better data soon.

        1. a couple weeks since the protests at the Michigan capitol

          You must have missed today’s activity at the Michigan State House.

          2. Ok, so some are still there. But the protests started a couple weeks ago. Some of them probably went home. If they caught it, we should start seeing cases within days.

          3. If they caught it, we should start seeing cases within days. could take as long as 30 days. See my other comment about the last US Navy crew outbreak.

    2. a fatality rate of around 60 in 1000 cases for COVID-19.

      The good news is that the fatality rate for that bug is 2 in 1000 population which is so far statistically insignificant. The normal death rate overall is 8.5 per 1000 +/- 5.

      More good news is that in the anthill that is NYC, the hardest hit spot in the USA, the epidemic burned itself out in a little over a month. No more field hospitals, thank God we didn’t need them.

      One take away for me is that the half measures of “isolation” we went through didn’t work. It is clear that the curve wasn’t much flattened because it wasn’t fattened (spread out). Four weeks is a normal curve for infections.

      There was no quarantine. A large number of us kept going to work. Most of us kept going shopping. We didn’t impose stricter measures until after the peak (in NYC anyway). Every other house in my neighborhood had someone doing a Chris Cuomo. Good intentions by most, but lousy performance.

      1. “The good news is that the fatality rate for that bug is 2 in 1000 population which is so far statistically insignificant. The normal death rate overall is 8.5 per 1000 +/- 5.”

        It doesn’t work this way.

    4. You’re citing the number that have tested positive for covid…not the number that actually have it. You have to extrapolate using the percent tested that test positive…just as you extrapolated the number of people that have the flu. 1 billion people do not test positive for the flu every year…it’s estimated.

      TLDR you’re numbers are totally off

    2. Interesting how media is NOT bringing up heavy vaping as a co morbidity in damaging the lungs and immune system.

      1. heavy vaping as a co morbidity in damaging the lungs and immune system.

        Nor do I see smoking listed as a factor.

        One other thing about the nursing deaths. My Dad’s cause of death was listed as Pneumonia but it was really cancer. As my estate attorny said, sometime pneumonia is a blessing. I wonder how many of these nursing home deaths of Covid-19 really died of something else but Covid-19 sped it up 2 days. It took over pneumonia’s job.

        2. My dad was dying slowly of Lymphoma until he died suddenly of influenza. No immune system left.

        3. “My Dad’s cause of death was listed as Pneumonia but it was really cancer.”

          You’d think the Pathologists would chime in here?

          1. You’d think the Pathologists would chime in here? In most cases they only have input if they do an autopsy.

      2. in France they found nicotine was protective. 5% smokers infected vs 20% non-smokers.

  10. Do you have a fear of missing out on the best stock market rally since 1974?

    The Financial Times
    Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
    US equities
    US stocks carve out best month since 1974 in global rebound
    Central bank support and reasons for hope on coronavirus spark rapid rallies
    Every stock market in the world has now notched up healthy gains in April despite an array of poor economic data
    © FT montage; Bloomberg
    Richard Henderson in Melbourne, Robin Wigglesworth in Oslo and Katie Martin in London
    2 hours ago

    US stocks are poised to complete their biggest monthly rally since 1974, taking the coronavirus-driven losses on the S&P 500 this year to just 9 per cent, despite an economic shock that towers over the great financial crisis.

    While grim data trickles out of every major economy, stock markets have notched up healthy gains in April, pushing the FTSE All World index of global stocks to its best month since 2008 and nudging UK blue-chips into a bull market, up more than 20 per cent from their recent lows.

    Some investors are reluctant to believe that the rallies can run much further, but are equally reluctant to bet against the unprecedented dose of medicine administered by central banks around the world.

    “This rally in equities is clearly not driven by fundamentals — it’s driven by the liquidity support from the Federal Reserve,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Securities. “Companies are getting cash to keep the lights on through the significant support to credit markets.”
    …

    1. This does not sound like a prediction for a nearterm V-shaped recovery.

      The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      US economy
      Grim Jay Powell sets Federal Reserve up for the long haul
      With warning on slow recovery, central bank chief promises to fight economic fallout of virus
      ‘The chances are that it won’t go right back to where we were,’ Jay Powell said at his virtual press conference
      © Bloomberg
      James Politi in Washington and Colby Smith in New York yesterday

      Jay Powell sent an unmistakable message to investors and the public on Wednesday: hopes for a quick economic rebound in the second half of the year risked being an illusion and the Federal Reserve was gearing up for a long fight against the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

      The Fed chairman’s dire assessment was first reflected in the statement, released after a two-day meeting of US monetary policymakers, which cited “considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term”.

      But Mr Powell piled on further during the virtual press conference held immediately afterwards, laying out exactly what Fed officials meant by that.

      Looking out over the “next year or so”, there was still huge uncertainty over whether the virus itself could be defeated, there was the risk of “damage to the productive capacity of the economy”, there was a “very negative” global dimension to the problem, and consumers would be cautious as they started spending again.

      “The chances are that it won’t go right back to where we were,” he said.

      Mr Powell came into the meeting having already deployed more of the Fed’s crisis-fighting arsenal over the past two months than was activated during the 2008 financial crisis, by slashing US interest rates back down to near zero, ramping up asset purchases and establishing new lending facilities to shore up distressed credit markets.

      Even though the Fed’s actions largely helped to stabilise financial markets in recent weeks, there were still calls for the central bank to do more on Wednesday, including to make a more solid commitment to hold rates close to zero for a longer period of time.

      While the Fed refrained from offering any additional guidance or new language on monetary policy, Mr Powell’s downbeat, dovish words appeared to offer sufficient reassurance that the Fed was in it for the long haul.

      “They didn’t strengthen the guidance, the way a lot of people wanted, but in effect Powell made clear that the Fed would be accommodative for a really long time,” said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

      “You probably have at best a U-shaped recovery, where it picks up in the second half but will be very sluggish,” said Steven Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, the investment company. “It’s a long tough slog.”
      …

      1. Those people still employed are going to end up with a lot of actual cash money after this is over, because shortages and shutdowns have prevented them from spending it.

        Will they actually start saving?

        And will the additional cash available be offset by an increased reluctance, or even in ability, to spend money that people don’t actually have on the credit card?

        1. It’s a good question. I’m in the category of people who are making just as much but spending less right now. For me it just means I’m able to pay my son’s college expenses without scrimping as much. If my expenses continue to stay low it might accelerate a few music equipment and car part purchases.

          It will be interesting to see what happens with my son’s college, because those expenses are also lower as long as he isn’t in the dorms on the meal plan.

          1. If lessons are learned from this, we could have a much more efficient economy. That would help with all the public debt we’ll need to pay off.

          2. My wife and I used to spend around $400 a month eating out. Our income is the same, and we won’t be doing that anymore.

          3. If lessons are learned from this, we could have a much more efficient economy.

            For me the interesting to watch is the intentional inefficiencies. We can all see that online college is more efficient. But we also see the upper class and the wannabes screaming that they’re not getting their money’s worth in an efficient system because they aren’t there for the classes, they are there for the connections. That seems like an intentional inefficiency created by one social class to exclude others. So there will be vested interests fighting most efficiency gains, I think. Will they win?

          4. My wife and I used to spend around $400 a month eating out.

            Given the zillions who lost their jobs when bars and restaurants closed their dining rooms, I suspect that you had plenty of company.

            I usually find myself disappointed when I go out to eat. I get a mediocre meal and a huge bill.

          5. We’re still doing our part to support our local restaurants through carryout orders, but we are spending far less and
            the kids getting their first work experience waiting or busing tables are missing out.

          6. Spending here on groceries is up. But total adjusted spending is clearly down since this all started. Most prospective spending is being put through the “Is this really necessary and needed?” test and graded harshly.

            Cash on Hand in the Spiffy household is trending up (despite a recent large capital expense) and the ’emergency fund’ should be at 11-12 months by June.

            *adjusted = we have about 5 once-a-year recurring expenses in April-May like Auto Insurance, Life Insurance Premiums, Annual subscriptions for some professional tools for my work, etc.

        2. Those people still employed are going to end up with a lot of actual cash money after this is over, because shortages and shutdowns have prevented them from spending it.

          I don’t know. The UPS, Fedex and Amazon trucks seem busier than ever on my street.

          1. The UPS, Fedex and Amazon trucks seem busier than ever on my street. Nothing I would like to order from Amazon is available any sooner than 2 weeks from now. I’m thinking of canceling my Prime membership.

          2. Nothing I would like to order from Amazon is available any sooner than 2 weeks from now.

            A lot of stuff is saying that it’ll take 2 weeks or more, but actually arrives sooner, some a lot sooner. According to Amazon, I’ve placed 109 orders in the last 6 months as we accelerated our prepping efforts.

            Items that seem more likely to be essential still show delivery in just a few days or less. Other items that clearly are non-essential like the 2 Donner Path Seeker ABY Switcher Guitar Effect Pedals that I ordered on April 22nd? Amazon said they would arrive on May 14th (and said so in the order confirmation email). They came in just 2 days on the 24th.

      3. Just remember: In the post-Greenspan era, stocks always go up, in the long run, and sometimes in the short run!

        The Financial Times
        US equities
        US stocks close out best month since 1987 in global rebound
        Central bank support and rising hopes for economic reopening spark April rally
        Every stock market in the world has now notched up healthy gains in April despite an array of poor economic data
        © FT montage; Bloomberg
        Richard Henderson in Melbourne, Robin Wigglesworth in Oslo and Katie Martin in London
        7 hours ago

        US stocks notched their biggest monthly rally since 1987, cutting the coronavirus-driven losses on the S&P 500 this year to about 10 per cent, despite an economic shock that towers over the financial crisis a decade ago.

        Stock markets have notched up healthy gains in April despite the grim performances of national economies, pushing the FTSE All World index of global stocks to its best month since 2011. UK blue-chips briefly entered a bull market this week, up more than 20 per cent from their recent lows.

        Some investors have expressed doubts about whether the rallies have further to run, but are reluctant to bet against the massive interventions by central banks and governments around the world.

        “This rally in equities is clearly not driven by fundamentals — it’s driven by the liquidity support from the Federal Reserve,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. “Companies are getting cash to keep the lights on through the significant support to credit markets.”

        The S&P 500 index closed 0.9 per cent lower on Thursday, but gained 12.7 per cent in April. That is its biggest increase since January 1987, and close to the strongest month since October 1974.

        The rally has further bolstered the tech groups that dominate the US stock market. Amazon and Netflix have both gained more than 40 per cent from their mid-March lows, benefiting from the shutdowns around the world that have kept billions of people indoors, reliant on home delivery and streaming entertainment.

        “The best buy out there is Amazon — if the virus continues, Amazon wins; if the virus stops, Amazon wins,” said Andrew Left, a short seller who runs Citron Research. He has trimmed his negative bets on US stocks and put more money into the Seattle-based company in recent weeks.

        “The markets are on a sugar high right now,” he added. “They’re not making much sense to me.”
        …

    1. Look at this beauty:

      $200,000– bd– ba896 sqft
      Price cut: $30K (4/29) 2845 Olive St, Las Vegas, NV 89104

      For saleZestimate®: $219,354

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2845-Olive-St-Las-Vegas-NV-89104/2083968504_zpid/

      Date: 4/29/2020, Event: Price change, Price: $200,000 (-13%)

      Date: 4/25/2020, Event: Listed for sale, Price: $230,000 (0%)

      Date: 3/24/2020, Event: Listing removed, Price: $230,000 (0%)

      Date: 3/19/2020, Event: Price change, Price: $230,000 (-4.2%)

      Date: 1/14/2020, Event: Listed for sale, Price: $240,000 (0%)

      Date: 12/5/2019, Event: Listing removed, Price: $240,000 (0%)

      Date: 10/28/2019, Event: Listed for sale, Price: $240,000 (+20%)

      Date: 9/13/2019, Event: Listing removed, Price: $200,000 (0%)

      Date: 9/9/2019, Event: Listed for sale, Price: $200,000 (-20%)

      Date: 7/14/2019, Event: Listing removed, Price: $250,000 (0%)

      Date: 6/14/2019, Event: Listed for sale, Price: $250,000 (0%)

        2. YOU KNOW HOW MUCH IT COSTS TO A WELL IN THE PROPERTY

          About $3K for a new well. For a 70 year old well?

          1. It’s in the middle of the city, but it’s not connected to the water system? Geez, what a joke!

      2. , FRESH WATER INCLUDED YES, WELL PUMP ON PROPERTY YOU KNOW HOW MUCH IT COSTS TO A WELL IN THE PROPERTY

        1. $20 a foot for rock, $10 for overburden.

          Like I said…. $10k-$20k… and that’s brand new with the lot.

      3. What a dump. $200,000? The seller must’ve bought some of the crack they’re selling out of that literal shack.

  12. “Some lenders are eliminating their low down-payment programs. JP Morgan Chase, for example, now requires a down payment of 20 percent — up from 3 percent — and raised its minimum credit score for new mortgages to 700.”

    I wonder how this will affect the price of housing in NY’s bubble areas? Will someone other than a Russian Oligarch actually be able to afford them.

    “We don’t want to put our customers in a position where they can’t repay the loan.” …

    Anymore.

  13. Read the tea leaves if you dont want to get crushed.

    No matter what your BMW driving realtor says. Sell your place first – and then agree to buy a new place. Not the opposite order.

    There is a ‘wingman analogy’ but i dont know the details. If you are the wingman you cannot ditch the less than attractive friend – make sure that you can get it up for the less than average friend. Or something else

    ———
    “Some lenders are eliminating their low down-payment programs. JP Morgan Chase, for example, now requires a down payment of 20 percent — up from 3 percent — and raised its minimum credit score for new mortgages to 700. ‘Documentation standards are tightening, too, particularly for employment verification,’ says McGuiness. ‘We’re looking at income and employment the day before a closing and sometimes on the closing day. We don’t want to put our customers in a position where they can’t repay the loan.’”

  15. “For those interested in investing in real estate, there are now more opportunities than ever. It’s a buyer’s market as property values drop to an all-time low.

    Who does this Bozo think he’s kidding? The cratering is just getting started, and property values in most places are at best 10-20% off their all time highs. It’ll be a buyer’s market when they’re back to mid-1990s prices.

    1. Pretty much everyone who know anything about real estate knows the market lags 1 to several months behind the front line events going on in the economy.

      Even if things were to suddenly turn around (hint: they wont), we would see prices continue to stress and tumble thorough the summer.

      That ‘bozo’ is likely sweating bullets when no one else is around and wondering how much longer until the music stops hard.

      1. In the short term it’s a question of liquidity, but without a correction it will eventually morph into a solvency crisis. Then there will be, “Blood in the Streets.”

  16. “Owners of short-term rental properties are suffering unprecedented losses, as the flood of tourists that normally descends upon the Phoenix area every spring dried up almost overnight.

    Die, speculator scum. The sooner your shacks head to foreclosure, the sooner sanity and affordability can return to local housing markets.

  17. “Hundreds of homeowners and investors poured millions of dollars into expensive mortgages across the Phoenix area, banking on the idea that these rentals would pay the bills and then some – every month.

    Oh dear. I hope they had a plan B.

      2. You’re behind the times. You can buy Plan B off the shelf at Walmart for $50. No asking at the pharmacy. There’s even a generic version for $35.

  18. First trip to the nearest city in quite a while. First since masks required anyway. Doctor’s visit. Nobody in waiting room. Appointments spaced apart. Liquor store actually doors open. The sketchy guy in front of me didn’t have a mask, he pulled his T-shirt up over his nose. Brilliant!

    At the Wegman’s grocery everything seemed to be in stock until I hit the meat section. The ground beef shelves were bare except for the big 10# packages. No steaks. Chuck Roast and a large package of pork loin no problem. I guess hamburger is the new toilet paper. I’m good to go for another month.

    1. People are hoarding meat, since packing plants are closing due to COVID outbreaks. The JBS plant in Greeley had its fifth death 3 days ago.

      Was at Sam’s Club yesterday. The meat counter was pretty bare. They did have a bunch of rib eyes and a few packs of vacuum sealed ground beef. There was some chicken left, though that also looked picked through.

      1. Still some meat here as of this afternoon, but I noticed beef has gotten pricier – box of frozen hamburger patties $9 -> $11. Pound of ground 80/20 $5 -> $7 Filer Mignon up to $24/lb

        Chicken was available, but not a lot of stock.

        1. And the solution is ….. light your hair on fire and run in circles flapping your arms?

        2. Beef tenderloin is $14/lb, cut and packed, at Sam’s. Was back there today. They had whole tenderloins in a bag for $11/lb. I was tempted, but it was about 10+ lbs. I guess I could freeze most of it. Oh well, maybe next time.

      1. I saw the same here at the local chain yesterday. It’s hysteria. One day it’s onions, the next dry dog food. There was a big display of summer beef sausage. Plenty of eggs everywhere now, water too. I always see people stocking up on sugar water drinks. But those have never run out. Beer as well. As I’ve mentioned, could we save just one life by cancelling the lotto? Oh hell no!

    3. Hearing of imminent shortages, I went shopping again today. Fresh meat nearly fully stocked. Canned meat, nope. I got some turkey and ground beef. I’m good for a long time.

      I heard that freezers are out of stock.

      1. There will be some great sales when those freezers are full and the world does not come to an end.

    4. In my region (Oregon), chicken is about the same price around $2 / lb, but 90% ground beef went from $3-4 / lb to $6-7 / lb. Steaks went up a lot, currently ranging from $9-18 per lb depending on cut, but I haven’t had a steak in years, but that seems crazy. I usually buy ground beef and chicken in bulk, cook it all up in the oven, then cut and freeze for dinners. Reheats nicely in microwave. I began stocking up on supplies back in January when the first reports were coming out. I also have a 30-day supply of MRE’s from Mountain House that I got 4 years ago, 2000 cals/day, haven’t opened ’em up yet but that is my zombie-horde stash, LOL. I don’t have any guns. There was an initial toilet paper towel rush but it seems to be pretty much over now. Praise be to the Instacart shoppers. I’ve used them several times recently, I’ve done my orders on weekdays in the morning hours and give a big 20% tip, and get excellent service.

      1. In the past, 2000-year, I bought and held about $100K of physical gold, kilogram bars and Kruggerand coins, for $300/oz. There is nothing like feeling the weight of it in your hands. It is truly satisfying. However I sold it all in later years for reasons, which I am now kind of regretting. I would not buy gold again until there are no more commercials on TV about it, people talking about it like a barbarous relic, etc.

  19. New York City subways will be shut down for four hours overnight, each night, to allow the MTA to disinfect every single car on every single train in its fleet, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Thursday. The move comes days after the governor described the deteriorating transit conditions as a “disgusting” affront to the essential workers who use trains to get to work every day.

    https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/people-will-die-amid-clear-progress-nyc-issues-harsh-reminder-on-social-distancing/2396115/

  20. Lebanese have for the past 30 years voted for a corrupt political class that in league with the financial elites and central bank, engaged in the systematic plundering of the country’s wealth. Sound familiar? Now the currency is in free-fall and non-oligarchs aren’t allowed to withdraw their money from the banks as inflation spirals out of control. Watch and learn, ‘Muricans – this is a preview of coming attractions when the Fed’s deranged money-printing causes the dollar to lose its reserve currency status.

    https://apnews.com/db74186fbe34f0dc5fac32046e4f5f01

    BEIRUT (AP) — Clashes broke out between protesters and security forces in northern Lebanon Monday amid a crash in the local currency and a surge in food prices. Dozens of young men smashed the fronts of local banks and set fire to an army vehicle, as the protests turned into riots.

  21. 30 million Americans have now filed for unemployment. Of course, the actual number of jobless people, euphemistically called “not in the work force” by our Soviet-style BLS numbers, is at least triple that. None of these people will be buying overpriced shacks, and huge numbers of the newly unemployed are probably going to stop paying their mortgages and rents.

    No $500K starter houses happening here, greedheads.

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgeyb4/unemployment-numbers-just-keep-getting-worse-and-worse-and-worse-and-worse

    1. Was reading that Orange County, CA is getting ready to reopen, though there are some shrieking to keep it closed. Tell that to all those who are still waiting to get their first unemployment check.

      1. I’ll go one further: there are a bunch of lawsuits filed against various guberments over this thing. IMO we are going to find out there isn’t a CCP virus clause to the constitution and the bill of rights.

        1. Yep! I’m all in for civil disobedience. No masks. Pushing back on the school district’s desire to have summer school for special education students continue in this impractical and untenable “distance learning” format. California’s shutdown is not being driven by science. If it were, we’d have more widespread antibody-testing like New York.

          1. Nancy boy Gruesome is afraid of something, but its not the virus. What could it be? EnQuiring minds want to know.

          3. Nancy boy wants to throw people in jail for going to the beach while letting convicted sex offenders free. He also wants to take fed beer flu money and give it to illegals. Who owns his soul?

            Wasn’t Pelosis Dad some sort of mafia don in Chicago? Me thinks the rabbit hole goes very deep.

          4. Wasn’t Pelosis Dad some sort of mafia don in Chicago?

            Wikipedia: Thomas Ludwig John D’Alesandro Jr. (August 1, 1903 – August 23, 1987) was an American politician who was a U.S. Representative (congressman) from Maryland’s 3rd congressional district (1939–47), which includes Baltimore City, and subsequently the Mayor of Baltimore, Maryland (1947–59). He was the father of Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy D’Alesandro Pelosi, the first female Speaker of the House in American history, House Democratic Party minority leader and Representative (congresswoman) from San Francisco, California, and her brother, Thomas J. D’Alesandro III, also a later President of the Baltimore City Council (1963-1967) and subsequent Mayor of Baltimore (1967-1971).

          5. Do you believe serving as Mayor of Baltimore is roughly equivalent to being a Chicago mob boss? Interesting viewpoint!

          7. She didn’t say that

            I answered part of the question. He wasn’t from Chicago.

        2. IMO we are going to find out there isn’t a CCP virus clause to the constitution and the bill of rights. There wasn’t a Great Depression clause in the Constitution, but FDR got away with unilateral cancellation of parts of many private contracts, referred to as “gold clauses”. Ratified by the Supremes. Existing parts of the Constitution which outlaw imprisoning without cause US citizens, e.g. Japanese Americans along the West Coast, were violated by FDR and this violation was also ratified by the Supremes, precedent still stands AFAICT. Courts will bend over backwards to let the Executive branch do whatever during “emergencies”. Similar case at the Michigan state level tossed out this week with roughly the same rationale.

    2. It’s a good thing we were running surpluses, and keeping our spending low in government () so we could ramp up spending now that the lean times are here… right?

  24. Funeral Directors in COVID-19 Epicenter Doubt Legitimacy of Deaths Attributed to Pandemic, Fear Numbers are ‘Padded’

    APRIL 30, 2020

    “To be honest with you, all of the death certificates are writing COVID on it, they’re writing COVID on all the death certificates,” Lanza said.

    “I think it’s political, so, I’m going to turn around and say: ‘You know, like, not everybody
    that we have here that has COVID on the death certificate died of COVID.’ Can I prove that? No, but that is my suspicion.”

    Josephine DiMiceli, president of the DiMiceli and Sons, a Queens-based funeral service told a Project Veritas journalist that a Supreme Court justice got involved in one case of a non-COVID-19 death that was listed as a casualty of the pandemic.

    The sister of a deceased woman called DiMiceli and told her late sister suffered with
    Alzheimer’s Disease and was not treated for COVID-19, she said.

    “The sister refused to believe that her sister had COVID-19 and like I said, she was the one that said to me she says well my cousin is you know, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court,” DiMiceli said. “We’re gonna get an autopsy,’ and I said do what you gotta do, you know and she did what she had to do and sure enough I called her and I said to her that the doctor signed the death certificate did the autopsy – no COVID-19.”

    https://www.projectveritas.com/news/breaking-funeral-directors-in-covid-19-epicenter-doubt-legitimacy-of-deaths/

    1. I have to wonder what the motivation was to request an autopsy. What would it matter to this woman exactly what the cause of death was?

      1. What would it matter to this woman exactly what the cause of death was? Maybe she wondered if someone poisoned him. IMNSHO far too few autopsies are done nowadays. Doctors don’t know everything and even advanced testing doesn’t show everything.

    2. On another message board I read several posters have posted the same – family or friends who passed who had a laundry list of problems and their death was marked as covid 19. Do they get more money from uncle sugar?

      Also, the first person in my county to supposedly die from it was in the hospital for MONTHS prior to passing. Do healthy people spend months in a hospital? Officials also marked people as infected by community spread when they didn’t know to help justify the lockdown. Last nugget – a state resident who has it but is currently in another state is marked as infected, so theres double counting. Whole thing is a scam.

    3. not everybody that we have here that has COVID on the death certificate died of COVID.’ Can I prove that? No Any authorized person who fills out a death certificate can anything they like done on it, results are rarely examined with a critical eye unless an autopsy is done. I found my grandfather’s original 1915 death certificate at a backwoods township office around 1995. His cause of death was literally written as “alcholic axcess” which isn’t even English. He was a logger when he died, so maybe that’s were the “ax” came in. Someone at the state level substituted coherent language on their copy. My aunt Jeannette died in 1928 of “meningitis” even though no lab tests of any kind were ever done. My mother was with her the whole time of her terminal illness. No stiff neck of any kind at any time. Mother also witnessed Jeannette getting struck in her forehead by a flying bat that somehow went into the kitchen one night & flew out again. A few months later Jeannette got a severe headache, became confused, gradually went into a coma and died after 1 or 2 weeks of this. Using my professional skills, 70 years later I diagnosed her cause of death as rabies carried by a bat – which was not known as a possibility in 1928. Her life might have been saved if she had received the immunizations available then, but none knew this could happen. Family probably couldn’t have afforded the shots then.

  25. Woman Who Blamed Trump after Giving Her Husband Fish-Tank Cleaner Now Under Investigation for Murder

    By TOBIAS HOONHOUT
    April 29, 2020 9:36 AM

    Wanda Lenius told NBC News last month that she and her husband Gary consumed fish tank cleaner because it contained a chemical that Trump suggested might be an effective prophylactic and treatment for coronavirus. The cocktail, which contained four teaspoons of fish tank cleaner mixed with soda water, put Wanda in the ICU and killed Gary. “My advice,” Wanda explained, is “don’t believe anything that the President says and his people because they don’t know what they’re talking about.”

    The Washington Free Beacon, which first reported that Wanda was a “prolific” Democratic donor and that she had a troubling relationship with her husband that included a previous domestic assault charge, revealed Tuesday night that Mesa City Police Department is conducting a criminal investigation into the death of Gary, and requested recordings of the Free Beacon’s interviews with Wanda.

    The Beacon also reported that friends of the deceased man were skeptical that he would knowingly consume fish-tank cleaner.

    “What bothers me about this is that Gary was a very intelligent man, a retired [mechanical] engineer who designed systems for John Deere in Waterloo, Iowa, and I really can’t see the scenario where Gary would say, ‘Yes, please, I would love to drink some of that Koi fish tank cleaner,’” one of his close friends told the Washington Free Beacon. “It just doesn’t make any sense.”

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/woman-who-blamed-trump-after-giving-her-husband-fish-tank-cleaner-now-under-investigation-for-murder/

    1. I saw this last night. Couldn’t find any other news source to support this Mesa AZ investigation. But it makes sense.

      1. I don’t think you will find any Real Journalists from any “news source” digging into this story so they can print and broadcast retractions any time soon.

  26. “Nobody could see it coming” to “We hit a perfect storm in mid-March,’ says Hope Morgan, branch manager of Mortgage Network in Salisbury, Md. ‘

  27. “Suffering Unprecedented Losses, Sellers Need To Unload Homes That Are No Longer Producing Income”

    Will future generations see today’s expectation for homes to produce incomes for their owners as completely absurd and evidentiary of a raging financial mania, the way I do here and now?

      1. After a month of Fed-fueled denial, fundamentals suddenly matter again to stock HODLers?

        Give me a break! With Unlimited Quarantinive Easing, the stock market always goes. up.

        The Financial Times
        Markets Briefing Equities
        Global stocks slip as coronavirus hits corporate earnings
        Shares in Asia-Pacific fall as Amazon and Apple warn of impact from health crisis
        Japanese stocks were under pressure on Friday
        © AFP via Getty Images
        Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong 21 minutes ago

        Global stocks started May on the back foot after a slew of US corporate earnings undermined investor hopes that markets may have put the worst of the coronavirus pandemic behind them.

        The falls on Friday could mark a turn in sentiment for investors, who have been emboldened of late by hopes of a potential treatment for Covid-19 and the ending of economic lockdowns in the US and Europe.

        US stocks in April notched their biggest monthly rally since 1987.

        On Friday, Japan’s benchmark Topix index fell 2.1 per cent while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 3.7 per cent. Markets in mainland China, Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for public holidays.

        Equity market positivity ebbed after US ecommerce group Amazon warned that severe coronavirus-related strain could leave operating income in the second quarter anywhere between a loss and gain of $1.5bn. That sent shares down 5 per cent in after-hours trading.

        That, and technology company Apple’s decision to withhold guidance for the current quarter, has raised fresh concerns over the corporate impact of the global health crisis. Shares in Apple fell 2.5 per cent after the US market closed.
        …

        3. Global stocks started May on the back foot after a slew of US corporate earnings undermined investor hopes that markets may have put the worst of the coronavirus pandemic behind them.

          It’s interesting to me that “everybody” knows that following the Fed is the only game in town now, yet the news still gets reported as though earnings matter. Gives the whole thing an astrology vibe…”stocks went down today because Mercury is in retrograde but things are expected to pick up later this week”.

          1. Hasn’t sentiment always been one of the key drivers, if not the key driver, in the stock market?

      2. You have to appreciate an analyst who tries to see through the impenetrable fog of monetary stimulus to figure out the incipient impacts of COVID-19 quarantine measures on financial valuations.

        The Financial Times
        Opinion Equities
        US stock market rally confuses liquidity with solvency
        Many zombie companies will fail, no matter how much is sprayed around by the Fed
        Gillian Tett
        (COVID-19) pandemic. “It gives all of us at Hertz a sense of purpose and pride to lend our support as much as we can during this very difficult time,” said Kathryn Marinello, Hertz President and CEO.
        (Diane Bondareff/AP Images for Hertz)
        Companies such as Hertz are reportedly considering bankruptcy
        © Diane Bondareff/AP
        Gillian Tett 14 hours ago

        Two contradictory signals have emanated from the US this week. On the one hand, economic news has been dire: gross domestic product shrank by 4.8 per cent in the first quarter and Jay Powell, Federal Reserve chair, warned of “considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term”. Oxford Economics now projects a peak-to-trough decline in GDP of 12 per cent in the first half of this year. That is three times worse than during the 2008 financial crisis. Ouch.

        Yet at the same time, US stocks have rallied. The S&P 500 is 31 per cent above its March low and only a whisker down on the year. “The gap between markets and economic data has never been larger,” notes Matt King, analyst at Citi.

        Does this make sense? The answer depends on whether the lockdown has created a liquidity or solvency problem.

        If the former, it seems reasonable to think that the US Federal Reserve and Treasury can produce a fix for corporate America. Citi estimates that global central banks have unleashed $5tn worth of asset purchases in recent weeks, with the Fed accounting for half. This has prevented a freeze in markets such as treasuries and municipal bonds. It has also boosted corporate bond prices, enabling many investment grade companies to raise funds. This week a riskier credit, Delta Air Lines, sold bonds too.

        Meanwhile, the US Treasury is pumping out more than $650bn of loans to small business and starting a $500bn programme to help medium-sized entities. These initiatives do not always hit their intended mark. But the key point is that liquidity issues are being addressed.

        If Steven Mnuchin, Treasury secretary, is correct, this liquidity fix will see companies roar back when the lockdown ends. Some financiers agree. “We’re witnessing what is likely to become a powerful recovery in global stock markets as investors look ahead to the latter half of 2020 and into 2021,” says Nigel Green, founder of deVere Group, the financial adviser.

        However, such optimism looks misplaced if you think the crisis has also created serious solvency problems. A $5tn central bank prop can keep credit flowing. But it cannot conjure up economic demand or turn bad loans into good credits. The risk stalking both markets and the Fed is that many companies are quietly becoming insolvent, as their debts overwhelm their collapsing revenues.

        As Paul Singer, founder of activist fund manager Elliott Management, wrote to clients recently: “Despite the massive stimulus moves around the world and the unimaginably large new rounds of money printing, there is substantial uncertainty about the future viability of a large range of businesses.”

        There are already ominous signs.
        …

  28. in regards to the unemployment numbers, I heard that people who have applied for unemployment, but have not gotten it yet are not counted. I’m in Boise, Idaho and I’m hearing that 30% of people in Boise applying have not yet received benefits.

    On another note, the firm I work for got and received the maximum from the PPP loan and then outsourced our payroll to ADP, probably to comply with the law and put the burden on a third party for compliance. I’m supposed to be paid by the end of the month (today). Still nothing is showing up in my bank account….

    1. If they really did that then you’ll most likely get a paper check. It takes ADP a little time to setup and test direct deposit.

      Depending on the number of employees, using ADP to help track payroll expenses for the PPP forgiveness process might be worth the cost. If you do everything right (as a company) you effectively get free money.

  29. We walked through a neighborhood near our own this evening and came across this monstruosity of a house. My wife guessed the Zestimate at $975,000. She was only $525,000 and change too low. LOLZ!

    This is an interesting example of the effect of The Housing Bubble on the types of homes that get built, as this ginormous white elephant built in 2015 is surrounded by a sea of much smaller, older 1-level ranch style homes. It sold for $880,000 in 2015, and it looks kinda vacant.

    Zilldoe says it miraculously nearly doubled in price over five years’ time. Meanwhile it’s lucky owner is sitting on a latter-day California gold mine, as Zilldoe reports the Zestimate has increased by $21,469 in the last 30 days. Boo-yah!

    11480 Almazon St
    San Diego, CA 92129
    6 beds 5 baths 4,030 sqft
    Off Market
    Zestimate®: $1,509,614
    Rent Zestimate®: $5,081 /mo
    Est. refi payment: $6,614/mo

    11480 Almazon St, San Diego, CA is a single family home that contains 4,030 sq ft and was built in 2015. It contains 6 bedrooms and 5 bathrooms. This home last sold for $880,000 in July 2015. The Zestimate for this house is $1,509,614, which has increased by $21,469 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for this home is $5,081/mo, which has increased by $11/mo in the last 30 days.

    2. My son went to the nearby elementary school for 3 years. I would not want to be living in that neighborhood if Black Mountain Open Space ever caught fire.

      1. I was commenting to my wife on our walk last night how beautiful the area is, with houses tucked into surrounding woods on the east slope of Black Mountain, and she made the same comment you did about fire risk. We apparently live walking distance away, but there’s a huge distance in terms of escape routes: While we have two alternative routes to the two nearest multilane roadways, both within 1/4 mile of our doorstep, there’s a single two lane access road from the three-story white elephant home’s neighborhood to the I-15 freeway over a mile away, shared by many thousands of residents tucked into the wooded slopes. This is a Paradise problem waiting to happen.

        1. Our kids all attended Oak Valley Middle School, at the northwest base of Black Mountain. Several years ago, a fire started in a vacant lot just to the south of the school, plainky visible to the teachers and students, who were evacuated. Luckily the Santa Ana winds blew it due west, mainly down the confines of one of the branches of Los Peñasquitos Cañon. Had the winds blown the opposite direction, Black Mountain and many of its neighborhoods would have been toast.

        2. single two lane access road

          A nightmare mornings and afternoons during the school year.

    3. Looks like what we’ve been seeing around here (and probably a thousand other places) – bought by developers in the last few years during the boom, who then razed and put the largest possible box permitted by zoning on the lot, which is 2-3x the size of all the ‘older’ houses on the street.

      1. San Diego Real Estate Investor Hunger Games begin!

        The sharks are out. I got a cold call yesterday from an investor with a Rancho Santa Fe number asking me if I was interested in an all-cash offer for my Encinitas property. This is in addition to the text message inquiry not too long ago and a postcard via snail mail this last week. My realtor says she’s getting calls from investors every single day asking about potential listings; all wanting to low-ball. It bothers me that I’m getting unsolicited text messages and phone calls with people knowing my name and number when there’s no public indication that I am planning to sell.

        1. no public indication

          I bought the farm my kids grew up on without it being obviously for sale. Nothing like what I wanted was listed. Knocked on one door.

          1. I’ve heard from a few people that’s how they bought or sold their homes. The people contacting me right now aren’t in that category. They want off-market, no commission “as is” transaction from a desperate seller. The person via text message hadn’t even seen my property and didn’t know anything about the neighborhood.

  33. Time to buy oil?

    Or would it make sense to wait until all available storage is exhausted?

    The Housing Bubble
    Oil
    Chinese buyers stock up on oil as coronavirus batters prices
    Importers’ thirst for cheap crude likely to be limited by storage constraints
    Police officers watch an oil tanker dock in Qingdao, Shandong province in eastern China on March 26
    Chinese buyers have taken advantage of historically low oil prices to stock up
    © AP
    Tom Mitchell in Singapore and Emma Zhou in Beijing yesterday

    As the coronavirus epidemic brought the world’s second-largest economy to a halt in late January and early February, Chinese importers were busy boosting their monthly purchases of crude oil.

    According to the National Bureau of Statistics, over the first two months of the year China’s imports of crude oil increased more than 5 per cent compared with the same period in 2019. This trend continued through March even as it became evident that China’s economy was not going to snap back with a V-shaped rebound.

    Chinese buyers, the NBS said, had taken advantage of historically low oil prices to stock up. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell about 25 per cent between December and February, before plummeting a further 60 per cent in March.

    The plunge was even starker for West Texas Intermediate. The US benchmark last week turned negative in a development that implied companies holding oil were running out of places to store it and were prepared to pay people to take it off their hands.

    By that point China’s economy had stabilised relative to those in Europe and North America, where the pandemic continued to rage, raising hopes that Chinese demand might help set a floor for collapsing oil prices.

    Unfortunately for the global oil industry, Chinese companies were also running up against storage constraints.

    “Taking advantage of the plunge in oil prices to increase crude reserves sounds very appealing, but the actual situation doesn’t allow us to buy and store as much as we want,” said Li Li, an energy analyst at ICIS in Guangzhou.

    Analysts at Oslo-based Rystad Energy estimate that China’s onshore storage capacity totals 1.2bn barrels and is currently 85 per cent full. That is similar to the US, where government and commercial storage capacity of 1.5bn barrels is 80 per cent utilised. “Global storage is being filled to the brim,” Rystad said in a recent report. “Available capacity is below the theoretical maximum as tanks cannot be 100 per cent filled and not all market participants have equal access since most available capacity is concentrated in the US and China.”
    …

  35. Seattle, WA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Demand Plummets On Skyrocketing Inventory And Plunging Rental Rates

    https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98102/home-values/

    *select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As one Seattle broker conceded, “The fact is we have so many vacant houses in Seattle it is no surprise prices are plummeting.”

  37. Ben – I suspect that you are seeing alot of this down there in the PHX area – anecdotally my kid finished GCU last week and is high tailing it off campus – we find him an AirBnB off McDonald near old town – he plays 4 or 5 of the AirBnb loan owners off one another – finds that one guy clips the monthly rent by 1/3 of what he normally charges and was grateful to have someone in the place for two months til we find a decent place for my kid who plans to stay down there – the panic exhibited by the loan owners to get him in one of the Airbnb’s was rather epic to say the least. More to come on that front I bet. Rj

    “From CBS 5 in Arizona. “Owners of short-term rental properties are suffering unprecedented losses, as the flood of tourists that normally descends upon the Phoenix area every spring dried up almost overnight. ‘I am actually surprised that this is happening so quickly,’ said Greg Hague, a real estate broker and attorney, who owns Hague Partners and 72Sold. Hague says his company has listed many former short-term rentals in the past month, representing sellers who need to unload homes that are no longer producing income.”

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