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They’re Not Going To Be Nice, And They’re Not Going To Pay You What You Think It’s Worth

A report from Business Den in Colorado. “When it comes to future development — things that have yet to break ground — it’s feeling like the end of a cycle.’Projects that are getting built will obviously get finished, but when I can go out and buy a distressed asset at half the price I can build it new, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what’s going to happen there … I think new development is on hold for, pick a time frame — a year, two years, three years,’ said Rhys Duggan, president and CEO of Denver-based Revesco Properties.”

From Quartz. “There are already wider impacts due to late and missing rent and mortgage payments. Due to the complex web of financing Americans use to fund its housing market, missed rental payments are rippling across the economy, where they’re felt by banks, federal lending agencies, and investors in the $9 trillion market for mortgage-backed securities.”

“There are also concerns about the viability and payments from multifamily and commercial loans. The values for existing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have plummeted, and unlike the residential mortgage industry there is no relief for investors due to a lack of government involvement, said Ryan Swehla, principal of the real estate brokerage and property investment company Graceada Partners, based in Modesto, California.. ‘The CMBS market has completely frozen up,’ he said.”

From Wink News in Florida. “Apartments across Southwest Florida are trying to help new renters make ends meet even before they move in. They are offering incentives, which is something real estate agents say is a sign of the times. ‘When you look at the pipeline of apartment complexes, everyone was building them,’ said Denny Grimes with Keller Williams Realty. ‘There becomes a glut, so that becomes a renter’s dream. You can strike your own deal.'”

The Real Deal on Florida. “Miami condo market consultant and investor Peter Zalewski offered a dose of reality to viewers of The Real Deal’s webinar series. ‘Many of you have been talking up the market. The day of reckoning is coming,’ he said. ‘You’ve got a bunch of people looking to take down stuff, and they’re not going to be nice, and they’re not going to pay you what you think it’s worth.'”

“Zalewski, a principal at Condo Vultures, founder of CraneSpotters and former TRD columnist, predicts condo pricing will fall and undeveloped land will be worth virtually nothing. During the last recession, developers sold their sites for 10 cents to 20 cents on the dollar. He joked that there are only so many Wynwood Yards or Wharfs (referring to The Wharf Miami) where property owners can bring in food trucks to generate income.”

“It all comes down to price, he said. ‘At the end of the day, what people realize is the condo is a commodity. People buy based on a price per foot,’ he said. ‘Once you get past the hoopla, the beautiful people, the free booze, and all this excitement about what’s going to happen, it’s effectively a commodity.'”

From National Mortgage News. “Mounting economic fallout from the pandemic is fueling apartment landlords’ concerns that more tenants will struggle to make their rent payments, even after most managed to come up with the money for April. ‘May 1 will be a bigger watershed,’ said John Pawlowski, a senior analyst at real estate research firm Green Street Advisors. ‘Think about when the job losses started accelerating.'”

“The cascading damage could spell trouble for an industry that includes everything from mom-and-pop owners with a few properties to large companies with national portfolios. Whether or not the money comes in, mortgages, utilities and property taxes still have to be paid. Whether tenants have gotten stimulus checks from the federal government or state unemployment benefits won’t be enough in high-cost areas, like New York and California, according to Doug Bibby, NMHC’s president.”

“‘We’re nervous,’ said Bibby. ‘The only mitigating factors are the direct payments to households, individuals and children, and the unemployment checks that are coming in — and those are coming in sporadically.'”

The Nashville Post in Tennessee. “A multi-building workforce housing project planned for a Tennessee State University-area site has been canceled, as the would-be developer has changed gears due to COVID-19 concerns. Minneapolis-area-based Dominium had been eyeing a late-summer to early-fall start on the 11.7-acre site. However, the company missed a mid-March deadline to close on the purchase of the property from local developer Shawn Bailes, according to a source with information about the deal and who asked to go unnamed. Dominium seemingly will not renew its efforts to acquire the site.”

“‘With uncertainties regarding the national market and COVID-19, Dominium decided not to pursue the rezoning or the purchase of the property in March,’ said Jerry Maynard, a Dominium spokesman. ‘The missing of the ‘deadline’ to close on the property acquisition was no fault of the company. It was circumstantial.'”

From Senior Housing News. “A new survey from health care real estate advisory firm HealthTrust collected responses from almost 50 C-suite level lenders, operators and owners in the senior housing space. The survey’s respondents said they thought lending activity could resume in an average of about three months, acquisition activity could resume in three to five months and development activity could resume in three to eight months. And 90% of those surveyed thought the capitalization rates for seniors housing would rise by as much as 50 basis points in the next 12 to 36 months.”

“But only some of the deals that have gone through so far were reduced in price, as just 20% of those surveyed indicated a reduction in pricing or proceeds. Many of those cases reflected escrowed or held-back funds contingent on changes in occupancy, price reductions based on changes in occupancy or loan term changes due to increased credit risk, according to the survey.”

“The survey’s respondents also noted that some transactions are falling apart as the Covid-19 pandemic drags on, with 69% reporting at least one deal — defined as a sale or financing — that had been pulled or canceled. The low number of deals with pre-Covid-19 sale prices came as a surprise to HealthTrust COO Colleen Blumenthal.”

“‘I think the relatively few number of deals that closed without renegotiating price was a surprise,’ Blumenthal told Senior Housing News. “However, I suspect if we asked again in a month, that would be a different story.'”

“Senior housing professionals and investors are seeking acquisition opportunities over the next 12 months as the industry grapples with the Covid-19 pandemic. But, investors will shift their focus to value-add and distressed acquisitions, according to new survey results from senior housing investment brokerage firm Heavenrich & Company.”

From Thinknum. “Despite the fact that it generates an estimated $39 billion, the self-storage industry is rarely discussed. But there are an estimated 60,000 storage facilities in the United States. Collectively, they take up 1.7 billion square feet at an average cost of $87.88 per square foot.”

“The largest of the self-storage companies is Public Storage, which in 2019 generated $2.68 billion in revenue. New data shows that the company — and industry — could be headed for trouble: unused storage space is growing and prices are declining. This is an early sign that the self-storage industry will have a tough time weathering an economic downturn if it continues through the summer when people do a lot of moving and, as a result, storing. In areas like Houston, Texas, where self storage is a historically thriving business, prices are down an average of 45%. In Minnesota, prices have dropped by more than 50% for some storage spaces.”

“The price drop appears to be a reflection of swelling inventory. At this time last year, Public Storage listed 20,600 available units. As of this week, that number has more than doubled to 47,100. During the same time period, the average price dropped from $126.80 to the aforementioned $96.31.”

“The price drop is evident in all US states, some more than others. But even in New York, a typically healthy moving — and storage — market, From 2019 Apr 20 – 2020 Apr 20, prices are down 28% year-over-year while inventory has swelled by more than 58%. Minnesota saw the largest drop in year-over-year prices at 39% on top of a 140% increase in available storage space.”

“As of this week, the average monthly price for a small storage space in Houston is just $23.81. Last year at this time that same locker would have cost $45.21. The drop in prices will certainly hurt local storage businesses in Texas, which was already the least-expensive area in the country for the industry.”

This Post Has 162 Comments
  1. ‘when I can go out and buy a distressed asset at half the price I can build it new, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what’s going to happen there’

    Oh dear…

        1. I’m retired from 35 years in apartment construction. I never built one project that had true kitchen hood venting to the exterior. (Maybe a townhouse job that did, but no apts) Agreed, it’s much better to vent to outside, but most developers don’t want to pay for the added cost. No “wow” factor in kitchen venting. Most renters couldn’t care less.
          The pictures show a very typical microw/venthood combo. Just a charcoal filter that blows the cooktop air back into the kitchen after “filtering”. I’m sure the maintenance man never replaces those filters over the years.

          1. No “wow” factor in kitchen venting. Most renters couldn’t care less.

            Exactly, bling is what sells, whether it be cars, smartphones. homes, etc. There’s a reason why even budget brand cars have polished interiors formerly only found on luxury brands.

          2. bling is what sells I have stopped being surprised when I learn of catastrophic fires in >$1million homes that lack their own built-in fire suppression systems. No “bling” in a house that puts out its own fires.

        1. The last time I ever lived in a studio I paid $300 a month. This was back in Ohio over 15 years ago.

    1. Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost? By it later after prices crater for 70% less.

      Agoura Hills, CA Housing Prices Crater 24% YOY As Foreclosures Rot Southern California Housing Market

      https://www.zillow.com/agoura-hills-ca/home-values/

      *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

      As one Los Angeles broker reported, “Housing prices were tanking fast before Corona.”

  2. It sucks that nobody had a job anymore, probably living off their credit cards until they go totally broke. Then what? I pray for them and hope the best for them. Meanwhile I have tons of food and toilet paper in storage.

    1. Well with credit card companies cutting back on extending credit card lines, these people will have no money coming in from anywhere period. I guess they will eat tree bark and live an abandoned AirBnB?

  3. Due to the complex web of financing Americans use to fund its housing market, missed rental payments are rippling across the economy, where they’re felt by banks, federal lending agencies, and investors in the $9 trillion market for mortgage-backed securities.”

    Now we’re going to see what a fraud-riddled house of cards the whole thing was, and is.

    1. Food and oil aren’t the only industries that operate off the just-in-time model. Finances do as well. The whole world is like a plane that has to keep going forward or it will fall out of the sky.

  4. “Apartments across Southwest Florida are trying to help new renters make ends meet even before they move in.

    Sounds like a viable long-term strategy to me….

  5. ‘There becomes a glut, so that becomes a renter’s dream. You can strike your own deal.’”

    And so I shall. C’mon, landlords…I want to be wooed.

  6. The day of reckoning is coming,’ he said. ‘You’ve got a bunch of people looking to take down stuff, and they’re not going to be nice, and they’re not going to pay you what you think it’s worth.’”

    Ain’t that the truth. And it isn’t just the housing market. The whole rotten edifice built by the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed is going to come crashing down under the weight of its own fraud, fictitious valuations, and debt.

  7. – Some perspective here. The third asset bubble of the 21st century, “The Everything Bubble”, including RRE & CRE, stocks and corp. bonds, was already popping as early as 2H ’18, with serious issues in the financial sector coming to a head by Fall, ’19.

    – The RRE & CRE popping has been documented by Ben and others here on the HBB.

    – The REIC, including UHS, has been cheerleading right along, and even now aren’t acknowledging any serious price declines, and probably won’t until there’s no more runway for “plausible deniability”. Certainly no conflict of interest here. (/s)

    – “No one could have seen this coming” (/s), in spite of the fact that just like last time, the easy money and credit policies from the central banks and governments after the GFC “baked into the cake” the next (current) crisis, by sowing the seeds of the next downturn (this current one).

    – The CCP virus pandemic was only the pin that administered the final coup de grâce to the bubble and is now accelerating the timeline of the downturn, which was going to happen anyway due to reasons outlined above. This is not to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic and the culpability of the CCP in its origins, but rather only to show that the current asset bubble existed well in advance of the pandemic.

    https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/wall-streets-financial-crisis-preceded-covid-19-chart-and-timeline/

    Wall Street’s Financial Crisis Preceded COVID-19: Chart and Timeline
    By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: May 1, 2020 ~

    If a reputable polling outfit were to ask Americans what caused the current financial crisis on Wall Street, they would say the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. If Americans were asked in the same poll when the financial crisis on Wall Street started, they would tie it to outbreaks of the virus in the U.S. this year.

    But as the timeline below and the chart above clearly substantiate, the financial crisis on Wall Street began in earnest on September 17, 2019, almost four months before the first death from coronavirus anywhere in the world was reported in China on January 11, 2020 and five months before the first death in the U.S. was reported on February 29, 2020, having occurred one day earlier on February 28. (See the New York Times coronavirus timetable here.)

    Timeline of the 2019 Financial Crisis on Wall Street

    September 17, 2019: New York Fed announces it is intervening in the repo loan market for the first time since the Wall Street crash of 2007 to 2010. The Fed will provide a maximum of $75 billion per day to 24 Wall Street trading houses (primary dealers) with a cap of $40 billion going to any one firm. (This large cap suggests the New York Fed knows that one or more specific firms are in trouble.) There have been no news reports of coronavirus COVID-19 anywhere in the world at this point.

    February 29, 2020: CNN reports first coronavirus COVID-19 death in the United States occurred one day earlier.

  8. I hope that those who derive value from the HBB as a singularly excellent source of information and insight, and who can appreciate the countless hours & hard work Ben puts in to make this resource available to us, will show your gratitude by making a generous donation to our host and ringmaster, Mr. Ben Jones.

    1. I’ll kick Ben some money.

      With all the money I saved by not buying overpriced used housing, I’ve developed a troubling addiction to female Realtors on OnlyFans. Now that they’re starving and facing foreclosure, you wouldn’t believe what they’ll do for $20…

      1. “…you wouldn’t believe what they’ll do for $20…”

        In Greece, it’s a peanut butter and jelly sandwich!

    1. Well, they’ve been too broke to buy cars for years. But now the sudden uncertainty, not knowing if they’ll still have income next month, has slammed wallets shut and hard.

    2. “The company is optimizing the flow of the vehicles and positioning them closer to dealers for quick availability when the market recovers and customers return to showrooms,” said Nissan spokesman Chris Keeffe.”

      This is the fantasy that these car manufacturers and dealers are living in. 50 million newly unemployed and these clowns think the halcyon days are coming right back.

      1. with respect RIP, i think you are reading this a little incorrectly.

        They auto companies need cash flow to keep everything going. They are going to rearrage to ensure that they at least get 40%, 50% or 60% of previous sales levels. Otherwise they will loose too many dealers and good sales folks

    1. “What has been will be again,
      what has been done will be done again;
      there is nothing new under the sun.”

      Ecclesiastes 1:9

  9. I had egg + cheese sandwich, from egg whites in container, the best part is shaking it up to mix air into it, then it gets all foamy and then you cook it in microwave. Comes out so good, really nice and fluffy. Then put a slice of American cheese on it.

      1. I’m enjoying his food posts.

        Today I paid $8.64 for a slab of lasagna, three breadsticks, and a side salad. This at a bar/restaurant I used to enjoy two Deschutes draft pints for $6 during happy hour. Support local independently owned business yo.

        1. Thank you for the positivity. I love all of your comments on the blog. I’m not being negative at all but a slab of lasanga + breadsticks is a million calories LOL — but probably best for now to have it. One can put on a little bit of fat storage in these times. 🙂

    1. Add a pinch of baking powder to your eggs (along with a dash of milk) before you beat them and cook them in the microwave.

      The baking powder makes them airy and fluffy.

      1. Ol Bubba thanks for the suggestion, I have baking powder, will try that!

        I don’t know what to make of this virus thing. I’m pretty much a hermit and kind of a germaphobe all the time so “social distancing” is normal for me but I rarely go out in public. I wish I had a dog for companionship though but can’t do it in my apartment.

        I think we haven’t heard the last of this virus, not to be a fear monger but it could mutate further and get really bad after more incubation, but like if you get sick, you get sick, not much you can do about it.

        1. I feel fine not sick at all, slept a lot with my Air Conditioner, thank the heavens, then took my temp it was 98.2. I still got a gallon of vodka, about 80 rolls of toilet paper, and plenty of food stocks. I got some nice tomatoes in the fridge, going to have soon before they go bad.

  10. Just be nice…we’re all in this together

    Then there is Ben Jones….

    “They’re Not Going To Be Nice, And They’re Not Going To Pay You What You Think It’s Worth” by Ben Jones <3

    1. Not Going To Be Nice

      My condolences to all those who paid way too much for a house during the bubble with debt the lying predators reassured them was “good debt”.

      1. I doubt it.

        The article says the last 3990 were rented so they could skip the down payment and just start printing cash instantly. Now we know why rentals also got so expensive in the last few years. Not sure the story is real though…has a “based on a true story” vibe.

        1. As we’ve noted here, credit checks, income-to-rent ratio requirements, first month rents and security deposits arguably make renting harder than buying given loose lending practices.

      2. i had never heard of Airbnb arbitrage. This makes sense to me if you are renting in a condo building from the owner who was using something like cragslist. There would not be a full background check – and as long as you paid him 3-4 months in advance they would be motivate to rent it to you.

        Now that i consider this – i think that this was happening a little (not a lot) in our condo building in Seattle. i kept seeing online rental ads in CL – but did not really recognize the owner name

        —-
        Instead of buying actual rental units, we figured out we could rent apartments/houses and then sublet them on Airbnb. This would effectively allow us to forgo the hefty 20% down payment and we could expand rapidly. It seemed riskless to us at the time. As long as we can keep the units full, we could make a tremendous amount of cash flow. From 2018-2019 we went from 10 units to 4,000.

        1. Was definitely happening in Seattle. I remember mentioning here a friend of mine who needed a place for a few months and got a room in the U District (old Building off Broadway). When it wasn’t working out, the guy he rented from eventually admitted that he had nearly a dozen more apartments in different buildings scattered around town (and Bellevue) available for rent.

    1. At the bottom of their home page:

      “The Stonk Market is a satire site focused on the dull finance and investing industry”

      1. “The Stonk Market”

        Stocks for Donk?

        I bet they’re real winners.🤣🤣🤣

      2. We are seeing a lot of reports, especially out of Australia and Canada, about these airbnb arbitrage schemes where they ST rent out a rental apartment.

        1. I’ve been seeing something similar for years where somebody leases a 4 bedroom house then sublets it as a rooming house to skim profits, unbeknownst to the owner.

    1. Living with children when elderly, and multi-generational households used to be the norm for the longest time – we’re reverting back to that as the 20th century / post WWII nuclear family / middle class gains are being reversed by globalism, the financialization of everything, and the world-wide race to the bottom in order to profit the top grinds on.

      Only this time around, having Mom or Dad live with their children bring a couple new twists – children that are still heavily indebted in their middle age due to student loans, divorce, sky-high housing costs, medical bills, paying for children’s college, etc, etc – the list goes on and on, resulting in either a single parent household, or one where both spouses are working instead of the traditional split of one working outside the home with the other caring for and running the home.

      While the room and board aspect of having a parent living with them is still usually manageable, thanks to modern lifespans and medicine, the care aspects of a parent with dementia/alzheimers or other serious medical problems are likely to require far more bandwidth, available time and round-the-clock attention from their adult children then is available, creating ugly situations that drag everyone down.

      And that’s all ignoring the kids raised to be self-centered who will turn their back on their parents and not take them in, while hoping there is something left in the will for them.

      As always, my faith in humanity is showing through loud and clear…

        1. Who are these broke-a$$ boomers moving in with their broke-a$$ kids? Boomers should be the beneficiaries of this inflated eCONomy. (P.S., the link doesn’t work for me. P.P.S., I’ve had a couple glasses of sangria. 🍷🍊🍒)

          1. How many boomers were thinking they were “on track” to a comfortable retirement back in 2006, only to have the rug pulled out from under their plans and hopes, 401K and jobs?

          2. Why would a boomer need retirement savings if they have a 100K pension, and 1 million dollar home?

          3. it really depends if you have a govt (or affiliated like school) job with a pension

            … or you were supposed to be saving in a matched 401K. Ouch for some

          4. “30% of Boomers have ZERO retirement savings.”

            Precisely.

            …. and in rush the CandyCoaters with irrelevant DonkeyTalk like “depends if you’ve got a govt pension.”

          5. Why would a boomer need retirement savings if they have a 100K pension, and 1 million dollar home?

            What percentage have those?

          6. or you were supposed to be saving in a matched 401K. Ouch for some

            People forget how many boomers lost their jobs in the 80’s and 90’s, both factory and office jobs, and were never able to replace them with something comparable.

            Remember all those boomers who signed up for SSDI 12 years ago, because they couldn’t find any job?

          7. it really depends if you have a govt (or affiliated like school) job with a pension

            … or you were supposed to be saving in a matched 401K. Ouch for some

            More telling is that one of those is called “defined benefit” whereas the other is “defined contribution” … with the other side of the equation “undefined”.

            Sucks when the “benefit” end that you are going to rely on for living is “undefined”.

    2. moving in with their millennial children

      Well that’s where all the financial stability is, right? With the millennials that have been making money hand over fist all this time and saving it? So that should work out well.

      1. After reading the article I think I see what will happen with all the extra formerly-Airbnb space.

  11. Now that’s gotta hurt. Keep on sawin’ Tommy.

    Tommy Lee slashes price of sprawling Calabasas mansion AGAIN to $4.6m… $1.25m less than he paid a decade ago
    “Tommy Lee has once again slashed the price of his sprawling Calabasas mansion – listing it at $4,599,000.

    He purchased the place for $5,850,000 a decade ago and first put it on the market in 2016 asking $5,995,000.”
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8281277/Tommy-Lee-knocks-price-sprawling-Calabasas-mansion-4-6-MIL.html

  12. I’m afraid I’ve got the fever. A bad fever. Computer Upgrade Fever.

    Spending too much time today checking out PC component prices when I should be getting work around the house done.

    Anyone else suffer from this? Did you(r wallet) survive? Are 16 cores necessary to browse this blog?

    1. checking out PC component prices

      Cheaper than perusing the Tiffany website, which I haven’t done for years but was tempted to do after someone posted about passing off an engagement ring in a Tiffany blue box.

      1. I’ve already researched the hell out of paint colors for the house I want and the news even at its current cycle gets old.

    2. 16 cores

      I’m on a decade old Presario CQ57. My averaged cost of computer parts is around $25/yr. I’ll spend a few grand on boat projects in May though.

      All my walls are painted white.

      1. All my walls are painted white.

        Few whites are devoid of color or undertones. 🙂

          1. Tiffany stained glass

            Beautiful! I love Art Noveau design and elements. My favorite Tiffany store items draw on those influences.

    3. This current HP Envy has turned out to be the best computer I have ever owned. I must be going on 7 years now, maybe 8. It was a warranty replacement for a previous model with bad hinges.

      While it’s not quite as fast as my previous one, it’s really been durable. The screen has some burn in or whatever you call it. I also had to replace a fan that went bad. I originally inquired about sending it back to HP for a new fan, screen and some hinge repair but their pricing was a joke. I bought a fan online for $20 and took the whole computer apart myself to replace it. I’ll do the same for the screen when it gets worse.

      I’m going to use this thing until I absolutely have to upgrade. Same goes for my Galaxy S5 phone, purchased more than 6 years ago. I like to use things until I can no longer use them anymore.

      1. I’m a fan of getting longevity out of my systems. This reply is being composed on a 2013 13″ MacBook Pro, running a rather secured Win7 installation, and my current iOS builds are being made on a 2012 Mac Mini.

        The problem is that I am a developer by trade, so I have a few more systems than most people do. Strict separation between personal and work machines? check. 36TB on a dedicated server w/ hardware RAID down by my feet? check. OSX, Windows and Linux boxes? Check? Multiplayer Test Setup? Check.

          1. It does, literally. It’s fallen into the “Obsolete” designation by Apple, and the latest OS X won’t run on it. (10.13 Sierra is the last supported) It also lacks USB 3 which is a bit of drawback when plugging in external drive.

        1. With the network bandwidth available at home now all you need is a powerful workstation with lots of memory and dual widescreens. Virtual machines provide the separation of environments and robustness that developers require.

          1. VMs have their uses for sure, but are usually lacking in latest Graphics API support and max performance, which is how I make my living.

          2. I remember when VM Workstation was the hot tool to have on a Windoze box. Now there are free alternatives, like Virtual Box.

          3. Yeah, I understand bare metal for gaming. I was thinking of your 36-TB server; I’d hate to rebuild that in a crunch. I have to have keep an on-line sine-wave ups for my workstation, gateway and switch hardware due to the fluctuations in our power with so much power generation from multiple sources.

          4. I was thinking of your 36-TB server; I’d hate to rebuild that in a crunch.

            It’s not as bad as one might think. For starters – I got a HPE (HP Enterprise) Proliant Gen8 Microserver a few years ago, which is a 9x9x10 inch cube, sitting on top of the matching managed smart switchand next to a 1500VA sinewave UPS (1 of 4 UPSes deployed just at Mr & Mrs Spiffy’s work desks). Proper server hardware with ECC Memory, iLO, etc.

            The Server OS is on an 860 PRO SSD for durability, with 4x WD Red 12TB for data. 2 12TB drives are paired in Raid 1 (mirrored), and that’s where all my important data is. Among other things stored there, I have all my source code (& data) depos on those drives. Mrs Spiffy is also a dev (Big Data/Reporting) and she has a couple SQL Server instances running on it that she occasionally needs. It’s overkill for most everyone here, but I work from home and have run worldwide distributed AAA title dev teams from Casa Spiffy so my use case is an outlier.

            I have 3x 10 or 12tb external USB Hard Drives that are rotated as backup disks for the RAID data- one is always in our safe deposit box. Again, that’s overkill for 99% of people, but it’s a work expense/task for me.

            The remaining 24TB (2x12Tb) are mostly media (full uncompressed .ISO/FLAC rips of our all optical media) and many TB of games and are available to stream everywhere in the house. They’re backed up, but rarely refreshed. If we lose one of those drives, it’s a not a critical loss and can be rebuilt.

            The ‘gateway’ into Casa Spiffy is run through OpenWRT, and includes a PI-Hole to block ads and Windows Telemetry at the DNS level. Again, overkill for 99% of people.

          5. The free VMs don’t offer the features that come with the ESXi paid versions like clustering. I have a EE friend who does security for a living. He is a linux disciple and uses virtual box exclusively. Now that I’m retired I’ll likely be migrating to virtual box VMs next winter as flying season is here.

    4. Anyone else suffer from this?

      Nah, I built a fairly fast gaming PC in the past but it’s just a tool for me. I do that with car parts and music equipment, though.

      1. Funny enough, It’s gaming that has prompted this.

        Given that it’s my line of work, you would think I would have a least one box with better than a GTX 1060 video card, but I don’t. Well, not for long, I just ordered an RTX 2070 Mini that will fit in my Shuttle XPC Cube case and still has a DVI-D connector so I don’t have to worry about replacing my 30″ monitor (Dell U3014) that is shares with 3 other machines.

        I’ve got a Valve Index that has been just sitting here unopened for the last month, and it would be nice to check it out.

    5. I’m afraid I’ve got the fever. A bad fever. Computer Upgrade Fever.

      I’ve not been tempted to upgrade my computer, but I have been upgrading my stereo/home theater this past month. Figure if I’m hanging out at home so much, might as well have a better experience as I listen to music/watch movies and such.

      New speakers, power amp, and subs, with TV and AVR on the way. At first I’d hoped to get deals due to all the financial distress, but the supply chain disruptions have made it more a question of things simply being in stock.

      1. but the supply chain disruptions have made it more a question of things simply being in stock.

        Been noticing that for a LOT of different things. Weird, spotty availability on items you would otherwise think wouldn’t matter.

    6. More memory and a fast NVMe drive are worth it.

      My work computer (Dell T3500) has lasted for 10 years, but I decided it was finally time to spec a new one (officially because I might be doing some machine vision and machine learning)

      So I spec’d about $2K worth of components (Ryzen 9 3900, 64G DRAM, 1 TB NVMe SSD, 2 TB HDD, Nvidia 2070 Super). And yes, it’s totally worth it, especially the plentiful DRAM and NVMe drive.

      1. a fast NVMe drive

        Yeah, that’s my field. I’ve been trying to get friends to switch to NVMe for a few years now. Not only is the bus fast, but the queueing of the commands is so much better that if you’re a heavy user it’s a huge difference compared to SATA. Definitely worth the extra money. At work we’re starting to test the PCIe Gen4 NVMe drives now…which would be a good reason to get a Gen4 mother board if you were looking at new machines.

        1. I’m a believer in nVME drives – with the good ones like the 960/970 Evo/Pro or HP EX950 you can see the the improvement over SATA SSDs in human measurable amounts. I recommend it to everyone, and every machine I have that can take one has one.

          PCIe 4.0 support is still pretty new – Intel needs to get on the ball, many of the AMD mobos only have one fast M.2 slot, and the early Gen4 M.2 drives have room to get faster still. Give it 2 years and the transition should be complete, and they’ll be yapping about Gen5 coming soon…

          1. Makes sense, SATA was designed for disk drives, not SSD.

            My current box (an old HP Envy desktop) still has old fashioned magnetic disks. When time time comes, I’m sure the next box will be all SSD,

          2. Intel needs to get on the ball

            Speaking of which, we heard rumors that Intel didn’t even have internally available test systems for Gen4 drives and had to buy competitor motherboards just to test the drives they were developing. Big faux pas…

            But anyway, yeah, we’re already in talks with the vendor for the Gen5 test machines that are being designed for us to use in a couple more years.

          3. I’ve got two Intel PCIe P3700 series NVMe storage cards in my Dell 5810 mid-tower, but I still backup offline to a RAID10 array of enterprise grade magnetic platters. Fingers crossed!

    1. Citizen! We globalists and our progressive minions offer you the most important freedom of all: the freedom from independent thought or making your own choices! Life as a serf on the incorporated global plantation leaves you free to be a unit of economic value for the oligarchy, while slavishly adhering to The Narrative will keep you free of Thought Crimes or running afoul of our PC Commissars. As soon as our comrades finish their disarmament of the bitter clingers (it’s for the children), we can finish scraping obsolete documents drafted by white male “Founding Father” slaveowners, and give you a new, updated Constitution! All your “rights” belong to us! Forward!

      1. As soon as our comrades finish their disarmament of the bitter clingers

        If that was easy, it would have been done decades ago, like it has been in other English speaking countries.

  13. Mayday! Mayday! Distress signals! But, as we said before, we’re just not giving these away. I’m not THAT hungry! Only 8,798 to go! More liferafts are requested! Brother, can ya spare a dime? I gotta pay for that Beemer and those banks are climbing my frame.

    “This has been used recently as airbnb so home is completely furnished. All furnishing are negotiable.” I bet that furniture will be thrown in with the deal if you say please.
    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1709-E-Marion-St-Seattle-WA-98122/48789190_zpid/https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1709-E-Marion-St-Seattle-WA-98122/48789190_zpid/

  14. 8800 Airbnb in Seattle proper. A whopping 75% are complete homes/apartments/condos. It’s going to get ugly fast.

    This one even went ALL CAPS for the furniture. Only owned it a year and a half. Guess they didn’t save for a rainy day. The tide went out- we see who was swimming naked. Poor, dumb FBs. Only 8,797 to go!

    Furnished 4 bedroom/2.75 bath, ALL FURNITURE is included. Equipped with white gloss cabs, quartz countertops, SS appliances and much more.
    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/913-27th-Ave-Seattle-WA-98122/48711577_zpid/

    1. Who the heck would AirBnB at that location? It is a family neighbourhood – traffic is bad

      1. They don’t give a flip – it’s everyone else’s problem, not theirs. They’re so much smarter than their neighbors who actually bought their homes to live in.

        Which is why so many municipalities have either enacted recent regulations to on short-term rentals (like South Lake Tahoe) or have citizens screaming at them to do so.

        1. or have citizens screaming at them to do so

          Given that the age of fat brown envelopes is coming to an end, the citizens might actually have their voices heard.

    2. Originally listed for $1.1M on 1/14/2020. Failed attempt to rent in mid-March. What did they expect with COVID hitting the city?! Relisted for $975K on 4/21/2020.

      1. Bought for $630K in Oct 2017. 75% appreciation in 2 years just isn’t enough I guess.

        1. Something is weird with that price history; it shows 3 sales in 2017 between May and September.

    3. ALL FURNITURE is included. Equipped with white gloss cabs

      Looks like all IKEA.

  15. We have become Karen Nation

    https://tomluongo.me/2020/04/22/we-have-become-karen-nation/

    A week ago, I didn’t know what a ‘Karen’ was. Today I can’t stop seeing Karens everywhere I look. It’s like that moment in They Live! when Nada puts on the glasses for the first time.

    The problem now is I can’t take the glasses off.

    And I’m not the only one. In recent weeks the failed Karen meme of a few years ago has returned with a vengeance as people realize just how much damage Karens have done to our society.

    A Karen is a person, usually a woman, who is never satisfied with the service she’s receiving and demands to talk to the manager. It doesn’t matter if Karen’s complaints are valid or not.

    This is because Karen has been incentivized by cowardly corporate officers and government officials (but, I repeat myself) to get something she doesn’t deserve simply because they want her to shut up and not disturb everyone else.

    1. “This is because Karen has been incentivized…”

      With no-pursuit shoplifting policies emanating from the ghetto the arrival of barren, screaming Karen was uninhibited. It’s just something else for the effeminate white male zoomers to fund with their already high taxes.

        1. Maybe I have too narrow a definition of Karen, but I’ve seen that video and to me that wasn’t Karen. To me Karen was average intelligence but a little above average sexual market value in her prime and has been conditioned by that to think that her opinions are more meaningful than they actually are because people used to listen to them in order to loosen her pants. And now that the suitors have disappeared she drinks wine and holds court with her friends rambling about her opinions that she still assumes are valuable. The rage in the video seems to come from a different background than that.

          1. That’s kind of my understanding too, with perhaps also being middle to upper middle class. And don’t forget the short hair!

          2. “To me Karen was average intelligence but a little above average sexual market value in her prime…”

            I figured Karen as, “The Glass Slipper doesn’t fit. Sorry!” types who never had it to lose; angry. The ones who actually have it might lose a star or two as they age, but they never lose it. It’s easy to recognize if you’re receptive.

          3. Mrs Spiffy is a member of an online group, now on FB, that goes back a couple decades to when she was having issues with having kids.

            She’s watched (and often shares the latest with me) a number of the women in that group become Karens (if they weren’t to start with). It is … interesting. I think it’s spot-on to say that a Karen’s opinion of herself is (often much) higher than any outside would assign to her.

            There’ s an awful lot of belief among them that they are owned a life better than the one they wound up with, especially in the husband department, and they are angry at the world for not recognizing their greatness and showering them with rewards for being so.

            It seems their favorite thing to do online is complain about how bad their husbands are, or how inferior they are to them. Makes me think of Kate from John and Kate + 8. Several have pulled the surprise divorce move on their men for not being superman. Several have also had gastric bypass surgery, etc. Not sure of the correlation between those two sub-groups.

            Mrs Spiffy just keeps quiet and doesn’t say much. She’s shared before how happy she is with her life and me, and they REALLY don’t want to hear it. It’s a whine and wine fest I guess.

          4. The ones who actually have it might lose a star or two as they age, but they never lose it.

            When you say that I think we’re talking about a different demographic. You’re talking about the ones that are legitimately hot. I’m talking about the ones that are much closer to average but are at the right place at the right time to experience above average marketplace value with average guys for a little while in their youth…perhaps in a small town, or in the military, or a conservative culture where everyone is under pressure to marry early, or…?

          5. “When you say that I think we’re talking about a different demographic.”

            We used to say, “Check out her mom.”

            “Makes me think of Kate from John and Kate + 8.”

            Looked ’em up. Jon and Kate both look puffy and reddish like they’ve been drinking. A poor example for the kids.

    2. This is because Karen has been incentivized by cowardly corporate officers and government officials (but, I repeat myself) to get something she doesn’t deserve

      Worse than that, our whole culture for decades now has told her that she DOES deserve it, and she believes them with all her heart. So deprogramming won’t be easy.

      1. Given that the rise of the term has made more than a few of them angry says there is hope.

        What’s she gonna do? Ask to speak to the manager?

  16. Doubtful that the plutocrats are going to be viewing elder care facilities as investment properties for their Yellen Bux after coronavirus coupled with indifferent minimum wage caregivers in charge of hygiene and sanitation takes its toll. The litigation for this is going to go on for a generation and put thousands of long term care facilities out of business.

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/884wya/absolutely-horrifying-nearly-100-residents-died-of-coronavirus-in-a-single-new-york-city-nursing-home

  17. I sent $50 bucks to Ben because of all his work and other people’s commentary, I’ve been reading this blog for years. Thank you so much.

  18. Calmness And No Panic Selling By Homeowners

    ‘A majority of Realtors®’ clients — 68 percent — said a community’s animal policy influenced their decision to rent or buy.’

    “As households in the US pursue comfort, companionship, and home entertainment, animal shelters were cleared out in many cities,” said Jessica Lautz, NAR vice president of demographics and behavioral insights. “These pet adoptions could lead to future home sales as families seek to accommodate the best living spaces for their four-legged family members.”

    https://www.newtownbee.com/05032020/calmness-and-no-panic-selling-by-homeowners/

    1. “These pet adoptions could lead to future home sales as families seek to accommodate the best living spaces for their four-legged family members.”

      Sorry, Jessica. I love my pets but I don’t make gigantic financial decisions to accommodate them.

      1. I love my pets but I don’t make gigantic financial decisions to accommodate them

        Same here. The dog may get the spot by the glass door so he can stare out at the yard all day, taking the best spot in the living room, but I’m not going to buy a bigger house just for him!

        1. Not to mention their short lifespans. Move to accommodate your 6 year old Lab, and he’ll be gone 5-6 more years.

  19. Sorry if I posted before but what do you think about the trillions of dollars they just printed? Gold hasn’t gone up much.

    Also in my neighborhood in Oregon, on Zillow I noticed there is a lot of houses for sale that are Pre-Foreclosures.

    1. Most of them seem really expensive still, I would not buy anything until a 50% price cut happens, if it ever does. Some day though, I would like to buy a small house with a small backyard for a dog.

  20. I posted a few weeks ago about not seeing many price cuts in my area. Starting to see a few now. What do you fellow readers think a good time to buy a house would be as far as timeline and what kind of discount would you be looking for. 20% or would it be considerably more. I am looking at a place that is for sale off market. and they are offering to sell for a 25% price cut. It would be my permanent home not an investment.Appreciate any feedback. Thanks

    1. Depends on who you ask. Some here believe that we’ll get back to 1960’s prices.

      The real question is if the little people will get a crack at buying the choice foreclosures or if those will all get snapped up by hedge funds like they did last time and turned into rentals

    2. I am looking at a place that is for sale off market. and they are offering to sell for a 25% price cut. It would be my permanent home not an investment.

      Opinions will be all over the place, and depend in part on other factors. If you hold out for several more months there is a decent chance prices will drop further.. but will financing options still be readily available and interest rates as low? We’re kinda in uncharted territory with the virus response and we’re not sure how bad the economy and unemployment will be, nor how crazy the government responses will be, especially with an election upcoming.

      But there are even more important questions for you: How much do you want THIS particular house as opposed to other houses in the area? i.e. can you risk it selling to someone else if you wait too long? How long does “permanent home” mean? retire in it? until the kids are grown and gone? Does it have features you particularly want or need? i.e. In a certain school district? very short commute to work? large lot? no HOA? etc, etc.

      You need to evaluate how you will be if you let this specific opportunity go by. If it’s no big deal, you can easily afford to wait for a better deal. If really ticks almost all of your boxes, and there isn’t much competition, you should consider how to make a strong play for it?

      We went through a similar situation regarding Casa Spiffy – it was an off market sale at a very nice discount of the house we were renting, caused by the death of the owner. But the reason we were in it in the first place was that it ticked so many of the “ideal for us” boxes. We had a year to check out every house that came available for rent in the area before moving quickly on the one we wanted. If we didn’t have the luxury of window shopping for all that time, we would have likely have had to taken the first available option, which we then likely wouldn’t have cared about nearly as much. So I say to you, “is this house anything special in your eyes?”

    3. Discount?

      Keep in mind construction costs are $50/sq ft(lot, labor, materials and profit). In the case of a resale house, adjust price to account for depreciation.

  21. If I read the morning stats right , in California with a population of about 40 million the deaths from C-19 are about 2,200. Of the death figure over 40 percent are from nursing homes.

    If I was reading the correct figures this doesn’t seem like a high death rate to me.

    Since the death rates in nursing homes are on the high side , maybe they should of targeted these homes for extra protection from day one.

    I saw a protest going on yesterday where about 50 people where on a busy corner with the signs and flags to open up.

    Since they let people go to grocery stores with masks it seems stupid that people can’t engage in all kinds of commerce with some procedures complied with.

    1. Good post. I’m heathy and haven’t left the apt for months, stocked up good back in January but the thing is, you can’t escape it eventually. There is no escape from it, but that’s OK just be good, eat good food, take your vitamins and get good sleep. 🙂

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