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Just Another Boom-And-Bust Cycle, Although The Bust Is Happening At Lightning Speed

A report from Los Angeles Magazine in California. “‘The hysteria over what’s happening right now is simply out of line with reason and reality. The Great Recession was driven by the collapse of a $15 trillion subprime bubble. Back then the housing market was vastly overinflated, we had a massive oversupply of housing and record consumer debt and a record low savings rate. None of that is happening now,’ — Christopher Thornberg, Ph.D, Founding partner, Beacon Economics.”

“The rampant Hamptons-ization of Pacific Palisades has helped drive real estate values up in Sunset Mesa, an enclave above the Getty Villa that has escaped much (but not all) of the East Coast mania. ‘In the ’80s the neighborhood was known for its rowdy skateboarders, but now it’s a well-kept gem, almost a time capsule with its 1960s homes,’ says resident Margot Jones. ‘Three years ago the average price was $1.6 million. Now it’s around $2.5 million and more.'”

From Hollywood Life in California. “HollywoodLife EXCLUSIVELY spoke with four experts in the high-end house market. Q: On average, what percentage do you think Kylie and Travis saved by purchasing a home now? Katie: ‘Kylie Jenner’s home was first listed last summer at 55 million and she purchased it for 36.5 million. She did an outstanding business move by purchasing her home for 18.5 million less than the original list price. Travis Scott got his home for a steal when it was originally listed for $42 million and he purchased it all cash for $23.5 million. An amazing decrease of $18.5 million.'”

“Q: Do you think they (Kylie and Travis) got a good deal? Yawar: ‘One thing I will say about today’s market is that there is room for negotiation. We have literally been in transactions where we have been able to renegotiate terms after escrow has it opened. This really wouldn’t have been possible six months ago. Overall, I would say there are certain sections of the luxury market where someone can save 10 percent-15 percent on pricing since the pandemic has hit.'”

The North Bay Business Journal in California. “The median price for homes sold in Sonoma County this May was $640,000, according to MLS data compiled by Compass. The high point since March 2019 came last August, when the median climbed to $670,000. Marin County’s median price jumped to $1.2 million in May, up from April’s $1.13 million but falling slightly short of the previous May’s $1.23 million. Napa County saw a little leveling in its median this past May to $618,000, dropping $82,000 from the previous month and $92,000 from the prior year.”

“And despite the dip, some real estate agents said they are seeing a silver lining as new buyers pour into the Wine Country market with inquiries. ‘Our market is on fire now. We’re writing offers on our cars — like 2000,’ Napa agent Jill Levy said, citing ‘pent-up demand’ as a contributing factor to a recent surge in business.”

The Real Deal on New York. “The contractor that oversaw construction of one of Manhattan’s tallest condo towers claims the developer refuses to pay his $14 million bill. And now the firm wants to force an auction for some of the building’s units in order to get paid. Plaza Construction, the general contractor on Ian Bruce Eichner’s Flatiron District condo development, filed a lawsuit Friday seeking to foreclose on a $14.4 million mechanic’s lien the company placed on the building at 45 East 22nd Street two years ago.”

“The complaint filed in Manhattan Supreme Court lists 24 condo units Plaza wants ‘sold at public auction’ in order to recoup its losses — including the tower’s full-floor 60th floor condo, which is listed on StreetEasy with an asking price of $15.4 million. Plaza’s move to foreclose is the latest hitch at the 83-unit luxury project, where Eichner has struggled to sell pricey apartments since the once red-hot market turned south.”

From Mansion Global on New York. “After months of single-digit numbers of high-end homes going into contract each week, 12 Manhattan homes priced at $4 million and up found buyers last week, according to Monday’s report from Olshan Realty. But compared to last year, contracts and sales volume are still way down. Donna Olshan, president of Olshan Realty and author of the report, points out that in the last 13 weeks, 53 contracts were signed at $4 million and above, totaling $427.6 million. During the same 13-week period last year, 272 contracts were signed, totaling $2.6 billion.”

“In addition to the drop in sales and volume, there’s been a year-over-year drop in asking price to sale price as well as an increase in days on the market. The average drop from original asking price to last asking price over the last 13 weeks was 16%. The average days on market was 677 days, compared to last year, when the average price drop was 9%, and the average days on market was 461.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The growing pandemic caused Texas home sales in May to drop to their lowest level in eight years. The declines in statewide and national home purchases increased last month after initial downturns in April. And the Dallas and Houston areas saw the largest drops in home sales among Texas’ major metro areas.”

“‘The month of May marked the housing market’s deepest decline thus far during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,’ Dr. James Gaines, chief economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, said in a statement. ‘Texas’ existing home sales plummeted 32% year over year on top of a 22% slide in April.'”

The Los Angeles Times on Texas. “Gregg Popovich is preparing his team for a playoff run in Orlando, but the Spurs coach is still eyeing some real estate action in Texas. The five-time NBA champion just trimmed the price of his San Antonio mansion to $3.1 million. It’s been a tough sell for Popovich; he first asked $4.5 million for the property in 2018 before relisting it for $3.5 million last summer.”

The Reported Times on Colorado. “The COVID-19 outbreak has had a significant impact on the vacation real estate market. Facing volatility and uncertainty, property owners have been confronted by mass cancellations that have led many to make hard choices about whether to sell their properties or weather the storm. ‘If you are the owner of a short-term vacation rental, your rental income is likely to fall,’ said Jean Wheaton of The Wheaton Team which specializes in Monument and Colorado Springs Real Estate. ‘Many use income derived from vacation rental fees to pay off debt on their investment properties. If those proprieties remain vacant, their mortgage payments could be impacted.'”

“‘As they struggle to fill vacancies, more and more Airbnb hosts are choosing to sell their properties,’ said Wheaton. ‘Any time you have a lot of similar inventory hitting the market, it’s going to create more options for buyers, resulting in more affordable prices.'”

The Wichita Eagle in Kansas. “Much like Wichita’s housing market, which is booming, the multifamily sector also is doing well. ‘Overall, it’s remained strong with both occupancies and sales transactions, and we’re seeing new development continue, possibly at a slower pace, though,’ said Jeff Englert, a multifamily specialist at NAI Martens. One of the biggest areas of new apartment activity is in the area around Wichita State University with student housing. In 2019, the new properties on campus accounted for 32% of new ones in the market. Now, Englert said, ‘You start wondering if it’s being overbuilt.'”

From QUAD 8 in Illinois. “The 21 to three vote ends 181-years of county involvement in caring for the sick and aged. Hope Creek was sold to Infinity Health Care for $4 million. The center was initially listed for $19 million, that figure represents the debt the county had related to the nursing home. That price dropped to $4 million. The board say COVID-19 played a role in the drastic price drop. ‘Nursing homes are a hotbed of COVID activity, so unfortunately that offer for $6 million didn’t pan out.'”

The Associated Press. “Americans are likely to see more ‘for rent’ signs in the coming months as many businesses devastated by the coronavirus pandemic abandon offices and storefronts and potentially end a long boom in the nation’s commercial real estate market. The swift emptying of commercial space marks a sharp departure from the real estate market that boomed in New York, Chicago and other cities in recent years. The effect on landlords and local economies could be disastrous.”

“‘The outlook isn’t good. There are going to be defaults and losses,’ said Matt Anderson, managing director of Trepp, a data and research firm.”

“One out of 5 loans tied to hotels is now delinquent, as are 1 in every 10 loans for retail properties, according to Trepp. Moody’s Analytics forecasts a record office vacancy rate of 19.4% by the end of the year, up from 16.8% last year. Some real estate experts and landlords see this as just another boom-and-bust cycle, although the bust is happening at lightning speed.”

“The same trajectory can be expected for restaurant space. Broker Stephen Siegel expects thousands of restaurants across the country to fail. ‘It will be a year or two before the restaurant market comes back, before everyone feels comfortable again,’ said Siegel, head of the brokerage division of real estate firm CBRE. ‘Retail is on life support. It already was,’ Siegel said.”

This Post Has 188 Comments
  1. ‘Back then the housing market was vastly overinflated’

    ‘Three years ago the average price was $1.6 million. Now it’s around $2.5 million and more’

    ‘got his home for a steal when it was originally listed for $42 million and he purchased it all cash for $23.5 million. An amazing decrease of $18.5 million’

    ‘We have literally been in transactions where we have been able to renegotiate terms after escrow has it opened. This really wouldn’t have been possible six months ago. Overall, I would say there are certain sections of the luxury market where someone can save 10 percent-15 percent on pricing since the pandemic has hit’

    Eat yer crowz Thornberg.

        1. With COVID-19 cases spiking as the U.S. economy reopens and darkening clouds on the economic horizon, it’s a little early to say.

          I will mention that the U.S. economic outlook was bright in early 1930, before the national economy cratered for three straight years. I do realize this time is different, due to Unlimited Quarantinive Easing.

          World Economy
          IMF slashes its forecasts for the global economy and warns of soaring debt levels
          Published Wed, Jun 24 2020 9:00 AM EDT
          Updated Wed, Jun 24 2020 10:54 AM EDT
          Silvia Amaro
          Key Points
          – The IMF also downgraded its GDP forecast for 2021.
          – The fund cautioned that the forecasts are surrounded with unprecedented uncertainty.
          – The United States is expected to contract by 8% this year. The IMF had estimated a contraction of 5.9% in April.

  2. ‘The high point since March 2019 came last August, when the median climbed to $670,000. Marin County’s median price jumped to $1.2 million in May, up from April’s $1.13 million but falling slightly short of the previous May’s $1.23 million. Napa County saw a little leveling in its median this past May to $618,000, dropping $82,000 from the previous month and $92,000 from the prior year’

    ‘Our market is on fire now. We’re writing offers on our cars — like 2000’

    Sure it is Jill, that’s why you are slashing prices. The horse-sh$t we have to put up with from these UHS.

      1. That 100 year old dump isnt worth the 200k price cut. Sh!t place, sh!t taxes, sh!t schools and sh!t neighbors.

        That said, I hope some Karen buys it 😉 200k off? OMG, what a steal – I’ll just have to cut back on lattes for a little while!

        1. Alameda is east bay, right next door to Oakland. 600K for an oversized doghouse?

          Wasn’t there an article posted here about well paid, WFH bay aryans fleeing to Marin and Napa counties?

          1. “Alameda is east bay, right next door to Oakland.”

            Alameda is an island (two islands actually). It may be close to Oakland but its worlds apart.

          2. Yep, lots of people bailing NY, LA, SF, etc. This plandemic didnt turn these places into sh!tholes, they were dumps the whole time but people walked around with blinders on trying to scrape up some shekels. Thats the good side of this phony beer flu – its revealing a lot of ugly truths, as if a mask was removed. Said for many years our economy/culture was like Edgar Allen Poes Mask of the Red Death (I had Greenspan as the original Prince Prospero) and oddly enough this scandemic and its effects makes the analogy that much more apt.

          3. Alameda is an island (two islands actually). It may be close to Oakland but its worlds apart.

            I’m sure that when the riots break out in Oakland that Alamedans won’t be affected.

          4. I’m sure that when the riots break out in Oakland that Alamedans won’t be affected.

            My wife loves gated communities and thinks they are extra safe. I like to quote David Hackworth to her, that anything fortified to make it hard to get into can also be hard to get out of at critical moments. Islands and moats make me think about that, too.

        2. Alameda is actually a very nice town and California property taxes are some of the lowest in the country. Regardless its still an insane price.

          1. California property taxes are some of the lowest in the country

            Only if you’re on the right side of Prop 13. If someone pays 600K for that doghouse, they’ll have a $6000 per year tax bill.

    1. “Sure it is Jill, that’s why you are slashing prices. The horse-sh$t we have to put up with from these UHS.”

      It’s evident that this is a coordinated PR effort by NAR. The feedback I’ve gotten is nobody has had a sale or offer since January.

  3. ‘The contractor that oversaw construction of one of Manhattan’s tallest condo towers claims the developer refuses to pay his $14 million bill. And now the firm wants to force an auction for some of the building’s units in order to get paid’

    Another day, another tower foreclosure.

  4. ‘Hope Creek was sold to Infinity Health Care for $4 million. The center was initially listed for $19 million, that figure represents the debt the county had related to the nursing home. That price dropped to $4 million’

    DONG!

  5. “As they struggle to fill vacancies, more and more Airbnb hosts are choosing to sell their properties”

    Starve and die, parasites.

  6. The aging bull will need more viagra to prevent another Niagara.

    U.S. stock benchmarks back in the red after reversing sharp early declines

    Market Snapshot
    Stocks trade modestly higher early Thursday despite rising COVID-19 cases in aftermath of worst day in 2 weeks
    Published: June 25, 2020 at 10:57 a.m. ET
    By Mark DeCambre and
    Andrea Riquier
    Financials traded higher mid-morning on reports that rollbacks to certain regulations had been discussed at a meeting of the FDIC

    1. ‘Creditors have scant hope of getting back the 3.5 billion euros they are owed, sources familiar with the matter said. Of that total, Wirecard has borrowed 1.75 billion from 15 banks and issued 500 million in bonds. “The money’s gone,” said one banker. “We may recoup a few euros in a couple of years but will write off the loan now.”

      ‘The collapse of Wirecard, once one of the hottest fintech companies in Europe, dwarfs other German corporate failures. It has shaken the country’s financial establishment, with Felix Hufeld, the head of regulator BaFin, calling the scandal a “total disaster”.

      ‘Wirecard shares, which were suspended ahead of an earlier announcement that it would seek creditor protection, crashed 80 per cent when trading resumed. They have lost 98 per cent since auditor EY questioned its accounts last Thursday. EY, one of the world’s “Big Four” accountancy and consulting firms, faces a wave of litigation in a debacle that has drawn comparisons with Arthur Andersen’s disastrous oversight of U.S. energy company Enron.’

      ‘German law firm Schirp & Partner said that with Wirecard now effectively sidelined, it would file class actions against EY on behalf of shareholders and bondholders. “It is frightening how long Wirecard AG was able to operate without being objected to by the auditors,” partner Wolfgang Schirp said.’

      https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/european-business/article-wirecard-files-for-insolvency-owing-creditors-nearly-4-billion/

    2. Germany’s Enron?

      And is Cockroach Theory a concern? (Recalling the Bear Stearns collapse that preceded the broad financial collapse in 2008 by six months…)

      1. Most certainly. We are just talking about bank accounts – cash. It’s not like some hard to value asset. And they keep talking about the money being gone. Where did it go? Running a ponzi scheme I’d guess.

        1. And they keep talking about the money being gone. Where did it go?

          FinTwit seems to think that the money never existed and that revenues were made up making it an income statement fraud rather than a balance sheet fraud.

          1. Either way it was supposed to be cash in bank accounts. This is the easiest asset to verify.

            I passed the CPA exam the first time I took it. The income statement flows through to the balance sheet, so fraud is indistinguishable. It could have been fraud sourced at the cash flow statement.

            This reminds me of the 2nd or 3rd day I was working at a dotcom. Someone asked me, “what’s our burn rate?” I assured them it wasn’t an accounting term. Later I found out it meant “when are we going to run out of money?” Jeebus that should have been the sign to run for the hills.

          2. The income statement flows through to the balance sheet, so fraud is indistinguishable. It could have been fraud sourced at the cash flow statement.

            FinTwit is distingushing it from $TSLA’s A/R.

            Jeebus that should have been the sign to run for the hills.

            😂

  7. Los Angeles Times
    LA freeways are the most racist California monuments
    … funds for 1,938 miles of freeways in California, planners used the opportunity, … Much of this freeway construction was in service of a suburban housing boom …
    20 hours ago

      1. “Tear down the freeways!”

        Not a bad idea actually. Freeways have destroyed thousands of previously vibrant neighborhoods.

        1. Freeways have destroyed thousands of previously vibrant neighborhoods.

          I think it had more to do with the kind of people who moved into said neighborhoods.

          1. Destroy a neighborhood by pushing a freeway through its core and you shouldn’t be surprised when property values plummet, middle class people (of all races) flee, and are replaced with people who have few other options. Classic example is the Cross-Bronx expressway. Construction destroyed the central Bronx eliminating many of the customers local businesses depended on and isolating the South Bronx which epically deteriorated. Despite all the destruction Fordham Road remained a vibrant retail district with not an empty storefront to be seen.

          2. Destroy a neighborhood by pushing a freeway through its core

            That didn’t happen in LA. They built the freeways first, the burbs followed.

        2. No actually it destroyed the worst neighborhoods, because that’s where the cheapest land was, urban renewal, they had to build public housing to compensate for all those who lost their homes when the highway was built….

          1. Not in LA. The freeways were built before the suburbs. Sure, you couldn’t tell by looking at it now, but I remember when there was plenty of open space on either side of the 405.

          2. I95 NYC-CT went thru low income in port chester, stamford Norwalk Bridgeport new haven, the richer places greenwich Darien Westport they actually filled in swamp/wetlands to create the highway so not many people lost their homes

        3. Yes. I always hated them. It just meant that extended family would move farther and farther apart.

          Ok for the adults I guess but bad for the kids.

    1. So happy Styx buttons up his shirt now.

      The open black leather jacket over the bare chest wasn’t a good look for him.

      1. Smart kid that started out on the far left. He used to defend Manson. I just used to tune him out. But he’s been moving to the right constantly. I only recently started to listen to his rants. Some of the best people to listen to started out on the left.

        1. You might want to check out some of the #WalkAway video testimonials to which I linked in the previous thread.

  8. Isn’t there something kinda insane about Protestors wanting to tear down a Society that they also expect that Society to provide a bunch of free shit to them ,that they claim is a right.

    I would have more respect for them if they were asking for the job and manufacturing base that was lost to the Globalist Looters and places like China.

    It was nice in the USA when shack prices tracked with wages and a house was a slight hedge against inflation and a tax write off. A house was considered a long term retirement program to not have a mortgage by the time you retire.

    All these easy money rigged markets are nothing that I can relate to . I just hate the fact that this was done to real estate . I hate the fact that health care became a price fixing monopoly.

    1. Isn’t there something kinda insane about Protestors wanting to tear down a Society that they also expect that Society to provide a bunch of free shit to them ,that they claim is a right.

      The protesters are mere pawns, too dim to understand cause and effect. The powers manipulating them most definitely want chaos, and their reasons are sinister.

      1. <80IQ at birth types who as they matured have consumed rivers of alcohol and mountains of drugs, thereby lowering their IQ by another 1/3. Just watch any of these protest videos or the chaz/chop nonsense. Many are likely incapable of even the most basic of tasks and will likely end up homeless and dead from addiction.
        What society needs to do is man up and isolate these people so the civilized can live in peace. Instead we waste trillions trying to corral them down a path they cannot possibly follow.

    2. Isn’t there something kinda insane about Protestors wanting to tear down a Society that they also expect that Society to provide a bunch of free shit to them ,that they claim is a right.

      Humans in general don’t seem to be very good at thinking things through. Like monkeys, they are very good at detecting and reacting to things they think are unfair. But as far as thinking and understanding why things are the way they are, not so much.

      1. I keep thinking about the 60’s lately and what were they protesting about.

        One Protest was against the Viet Nam War, or any Wars.
        Another protest was Civil Rights, with Women’s Rights
        Kind of being thrown into the mix.
        Peace, love and rock and roll Eventually these Protestors from that period became yuppies , who had to get a job, who than became more materialistic.

        But, now all they do is compare class and talk about this idea of equally of material goods, earned or not earned. And somehow the governments function is to insure equal to all. Equal rights yes, but nothing can insure outcomes cause that’s based on effort. Course the playing field can’t be corrupt or rigged like it is now.

      2. Playboy magazine ran a cartoon featuring two hippies carrying protest signs. One asks the other, “Who is going to send us our welfare checks after we over-throw the government?”

    3. “house was a slight hedge against inflation and a tax write off. A house was considered a long term retirement program”

      Houses should be reasonably priced necessary expenses — not investments.

      1. Rather than called investment it was more like the opportunity to pay off a 30 year note by your job and own something by the time you retire.

        Remember the 30 year home loan didn’t really get started until 1949 and it really took off in the 50 “s.

        This was when the concept of the American dream started along with long term stable jobs in which the working class got ahead.

      2. Houses should be reasonably priced necessary expenses — not investments.

        Sure. So what’s the best way to keep the leveraged speculators out of them so that they don’t get too expensive?

        1. Sure. So what’s the best way to keep the leveraged speculators out of them so that they don’t get too expensive?

          Don’t bail anyone out. Ever.

          1. Get rid of faulty lending , along with the Gov. Backing home loans and yes don’t bail out the money changers.

          2. And don’t subsidize anyone. Ever.

            Yes, i’d say that subsidizing is always bad for an economy because it amounts to an attempt at price fixing. Speculation isn’t bad as long as no one ever gets bailed out. Free market speculation is self-correcting. Subsidizing isn’t. In a free market the bad actors are always eventually punished. But then the question was specifically about how to end leveraged speculation.

            So, my answer is that the free market will always handle speculation, leveraged or otherwise. But bailouts instantly bring big trouble.

  9. Does it seem like the people who are assuming the U.S. stock market has already bottomed out are ignoring cases like the U.S. market in the 1930s or the Japanese experience in the 1990s, where a multiyear bottoming process played out?

    How can one know in real time if a bottom has been reached?

    1. Until the dips buying day traders get wiped out and market prices realign with fundamental economic realities, I wouldn’t assume a bottom is in.

      Stocks stage a final-hour rally Thursday, with the Dow gaining nearly 300 points

      Opinion: A lot of bad news is converging on the stock market — here’s how to deal with it
      Published: June 25, 2020 at 4:03 p.m. ET
      By Michael Brush
      As market weakness develops, scale into stocks that get hit the most
      Getty Images

      Heads up, investors: Wednesday’s selloff in the stock market may be the start of something bigger, for the five key reasons I cite below.

      The good news is we’re not going to see a full retest of the March lows or anywhere near that kind of decline, thanks to several positive factors in the mix (also below).

      The upshot: It’ll make sense to buy stocks after potential 5%-10% declines in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq.

        1. “Heads up, investors: Wednesday’s selloff in the stock market may be the start of something bigger, for the five key reasons I cite below.”

          “The good news is we’re not going to see a full retest of the March lows or anywhere near that kind of decline, thanks to several positive factors in the mix (also below).”

          Bahahahahaha. Mr. Banker’s advice is you should HELOC your house and go all in.

          “The upshot: It’ll make sense to buy stocks after potential 5%-10% declines in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq.”

          Yes, you should always ignore obvious downtrends.

          (Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.)

    2. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      Coronavirus pandemic
      Texas halts reopening in face of new Covid-19 outbreak
      Governor issues executive order banning elective procedures to free up hospital beds
      Greg Abbott, the Texas governor, said pausing the state’s reopening was necessary to avoid going ‘backwards’
      © AP
      Peter Wells and David Crow in New York
      2 hours ago

      Texas has slammed the brakes on its economic reopening in the face of a leap in coronavirus cases, halting plans to ease lockdown restrictions and banning elective surgeries in its four biggest cities to free up hospital beds.

      The order from Greg Abbott, the Texas governor, is the clearest sign yet that states in the south and west of the US may be forced to reverse course just a month after giving companies the green light to resume business.

      “The last thing we want to do as a state is go backwards and close down businesses,” Mr Abbott said. “This temporary pause will help our state corral the spread until we can safely enter the next phase of opening our state for business.”

      1. Stay out of Maryland. We did a LOT of hard work and we don’t want to lose it. Our case load has leveled and it’s even increasing a little. My guess is it’s the protests and Memorial Day finally showing up.

        1. Housing

          Georgetown, TX Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Austin Area Housing Market Turns Toxic On Rampant Mortgage Fraud

          https://www.zillow.com/georgetown-tx-78628/home-values/

          *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

          A noted economist stated, “A housing ‘recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.”

    3. I think when something is rigged you can’t really know how it will play out. I saw them bail out the scam artist culprits in the 2008 crash, so anything is possible.

      1. The bailouts only came at the tail end of six months’ worth of cratering stock prices.

        They have a head start this time.

    4. I’ve been playing that game a little, but I think I won’t play for a while to see how this all goes…

    5. ” What is faulty lending.’

      Broadly speaking it would be making a loan not based on the true risk . It would also be backing loans that are high risk for default by transferring the risk to the Gov. , meaning the tax payers. All faulty lending increases demand and raises prices artificially.

      Extending credit debt to absurd amounts ,that isn’t based on wages, again is faulty lending. Backing the high price of higher education by Gov. backed loans just creates demand that normally would not be there absent education loans.

      During the days of good lending lenders required a down payment in accordance with risk. They would underwrite loans amount to about 25% of monthly wages. Now they make loans that exceed 50%.The lenders would check everything. The underwriters were protecting the deposit funds in the bank.
      Than when Wall Street created the leveraged loans that were mis rated and passed off to the secondary market the Ponzi Scheme lending scam was bailed out.
      A loan has to be based on qualifying for the loan, not based on the home going up in value, or real estate always goes up, or even a notion that a group should be given a loan they can’t afford based on a idea of equality. It doesn’t make a high risk loan any less high risk by making a loan that’s destined for default based on a quota .
      Faulty lending at 90%margin was blamed for the stock market crash of 1929,
      Basically people only had to put 10%down to leverage another 90% of stock. This raised the price because of this unbelievable demand for the stock. This demand would not of been there had people had to pay the full price at purchase of stock.
      After many a investigation in the 30’s they came up with the Glass Steagal Act that seperated investment from lending, meaning when a loan is made it’s based on qualifying for the loan, not based on the future potential value of the asset the loan is made on. Plus Banks were required to have reserves for lending that limited the leverage of deposits by the Glass Steagal Act. It only took 7 years to crash and burn after Clinton signed off on the removal of Glass Steagal.
      These investment firms were leveraging loans by 40 times making billions in commissions when the loans were called “liar loans”

      Basically “Faulty lending” is a loan made not on true risk of the loan for repayment .
      The values are crash-able because the values are based on demand based on faulty lending.
      Just look at the prices, outrageous!

      1. The solution is to separate public good from the free market. Some things like police and fire protection, roads, education, and healthcare are best and most efficiently provided by the public sector. Most other goods and services are best provided by well regulated private enterprise. Government needs to occupy public good fields — set reasonable rules and regulations for the private sector — and then step back.

        1. I would not agree that health care and higher education needs to be provided by Government.

          A Standing Army, the police, the Judicial system, fire fighters, early education, maybe roads, a few other government functions, and maybe taking care of the disabled. The Government should respond to emergencies and disasters also. Being the watchdog for the World is also a questionable role for our Government.
          Capitalism does need to be regulated to prevent monopolies and other tricks the Capitalist pulls to get unfair advantage, like being bailed out by the Government.
          The big problem is that the Fat Cats have bought off the Politicians ,so somehow the money needs to be taken out of Politics.
          Anything the Gov touches it will mess up, or it costs three times what it should , or the service goes down.

      2. Basically “Faulty lending” is a loan made not on true risk of the loan for repayment .

        No one knows what the “true risk” of a loan is.

        1. They use to underwrite
          home loans so well that the foreclosure rates were so low during this period. They would check for fraud and verify everything.

          1. You’re talking about an estimation based on averages. That’s only knowledge about what someone else believes.

            You might believe with all your heart that you can “get rid of faulty loans”, but you can’t.

            I’m done with this, but before i go i’ll put another bee under your bonnet…

            Someone once said that if God were really omniscient, his knowledge would instantly freeze him in place. He’d be unable to move. Knowing the future would immobilize him.

            In almost the same way, if people knew the “true risk” or value of any loan, the number of loans made would fall off a cliff.

          2. You might believe with all your heart that you can “get rid of faulty loans”, but you can’t.

            I’d be satisfied if they were reduced to historic levels.

        2. Sure they do. Simply look at income and see if the borrower has the income to repay. 28% total gross on debt was a rule of thumb. 2-3x income was a rule of thumb. Don’t bother with FICO. The buyer doesn’t have to repay the entire loan over 30 years, the buyer needs to keep up their end of the bargain just long enough to cover the expenses of a fire sale in case of foreclosure. Better yet, if the buyer ponies up 20% down, there’s very little risk to the loan at all.

    1. California
      Published 21 hours ago
      Affirmative action restoration plan to appear on California’s November ballot
      By Brie Stimson | Fox News
      Fox News Flash top headlines for June 24

      Voters in California will decide this November whether to restore affirmative action in college admissions and government contracting.

      The proposal would reverse a 1996 constitutional amendment approved by 55 percent of voters that banned “preferential treatment” based on “race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin,” the Los Angeles Times reported.

      1. This was inevitable. On the bright side, you can still leave Clownifornia and take your money with you, unlike in say, South africa.

      2. I think the law is already fair.
        In fact at this point it’s reverse discrimation to deprive Whites of getting jobs.
        And haven’t they lowered test scores enough, as well as aced out Asians that test high and work hard.

    2. I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.

      — Martin Luther King, Jr.

      1. What they are going to learn, the hard way, is that they will be rejected when it comes time to request protected class perks.

      2. “My kids are so mixed they can in good faith claim pretty much any race.”

        In some circles it is believed they can in good faith be able to claim pretty much any gender as well.

        And in some places failing to recognize such gender claims can land one in some very legal hot water.

        1. You can tell by the brewing race and gender class warfare that we are gearing up for a transition to Democratic party rule (cringe). Soon anti-white racism will be codified into law, and anyone who questions it will be at risk of reprisal by the vigilantes of political correctness.

          1. “You can tell by the brewing race and gender class warfare that we are gearing up for a transition to Democratic party rule (cringe).”

            Can’t wait for the “Wailing Videos 2.0” when the silent majority re-elects the incumbent, and looking forward to harsh punishment for arsonists and looters.

        2. Before you know it somebody who thinks they are a chicken will be asking the Society to indulge their quirk.

      3. My kids are of mixed white ancestry, which means that they will have to work harder for whatever they want in life than Californians of the annointed races.

        1. And to me that isn’t fair and it’s reverse discrimation to single out Whites to be oppressed or deprived . This demeaning of the white race is getting unacceptable. It’s really abusive what they are saying to young white children.

          1. In addition the identity politics are dangerous and the villfying of the White race is uncalled for. And no doubt none of the races had pure spotless histories.

          2. Racism in the name of racial justice and equality is a hallmark of the Democratic party base.

          3. To some sectors of the populace, it IS fair. After 400 years of discriminating against whites, everyone will declare even steven and finally abolish all discrimination.

        2. they will have to work harder for whatever they want in life than Californians of the annointed races.

          At least they can still leave if it comes to that. Of course, the insane cost of living is reason enough to leave now.

    3. Opinion
      Column: California should revive affirmative action and launch a slavery reparations task force
      Assemblywoman Shirley Weber (D-San Diego) has introduced bills to revive affirmative action and consider slavery reparations.
      (Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press)
      By Robin Abcarian, Columnist
      June 10, 2020 3 AM

      Shirley N. Weber, a Democratic assemblywoman who represents parts of San Diego and its suburbs, practically exploded when I asked her whether two recent bills she has authored are intended as symbolic, amounting to mere consciousness-raising for Californians.

    4. How about a little insight from a dead white man?

      Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

      — H. L. Mencken

      1. I was going to mention that too. After a bunch of discussion my wife eventually concluded that it wasn’t SO anti-Chinese, it was just an attempt to solve a problem that happened to hurt Chinese people. So rather than stay angry she’s trying to think of better solutions to the root cause of the problem. I wished her good luck with that…

      2. I’ll just note that the Chinese I know around here are VERY pissed about ACA-5

        Well, they can always move to another state.

  10. Outta control and accelerating…

    The Financial Times
    Emma Boyde 8 hours ago
    US reports record jump in new coronavirus cases
    Peter Wells in New York

    The US recorded nearly 42,000 new cases of coronavirus over the past 24 hours, the second day in a row of a record nationwide increase, in the latest indication the outbreak is spreading quickly in the south and west.

    A further 41,939 people tested positive over the past day, according to data compiled on Thursday by Covid Tracking Project, up from nearly 38,700 a day earlier.

    The record jump was revealed just hours after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that the number of nationwide infections could be 10 times higher than suggested by official data owing to the number of people not displaying symptoms of the disease.

    1. people not displaying symptoms of the disease

      This should give everyone pause. No rational person would be afraid of a flu that has no symptoms.

      Yes Dr. Fauci, if 3% of people test positive then there are actually 10 million “cases”. Just keep counting and keep the nation in a panic, until when and for what purpose? I think I have a suspicion.

      Not one building block of this narrative stands up to scrutiny, like yesterday’s San Diego fake story, or the Florida one before that. A doctor from Texas said the other day that their hospitals were filling up because elective surgeries were being allowed after three months.

    2. “This should give everyone pause. No rational person would be afraid of a flu that has no symptoms.”

      Suppose the same virus that had no symptoms in many cases has a 1 in 20 chance of killing you if you get it.

      Would fear be a rational response in that case?

      1. a rational response

        First a rational risk assessment is in order. 2,500,000 officially infected so far. 126,000 died with or assumed with Covid. That’s 1 in 20. 60,000 “cases” per day now and 500 deaths. That’s 1 in 120. The experts say the number of cases is probably 10 x the number of official cases. That’s 1 in 200 infections. The vast majority of deaths were in co-morbid (already dying) individuals.

        So, no. If I’m not already fighting a terminal illness I shouldn’t be afraid. Especially not afraid when the peak of the epidemic passed over us three months ago. Not afraid if only 1 in 20 managed to catch the infection and only 1 in 200 of those got a toe tag. That’s 1 in 4,000 population. If you’re not in a nursing home it was more like 1 in 10,000.

        That’s the backward looking risk. The risk now is a tiny fraction of what it was in March, at the start. The death rate has dropped to 20% of what it was, in NY it’s already negligible. Perhaps the risk to those of us who have survived is now less than 1 in 40,000.

          1. Per today’s press conference, LA County and the Central Valley are the areas of most concern.

  11. oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Depression Dominoes Are Toppling
    http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-depression-dominoes-are-toppling.html

    Once you allow your economy to become dependent on extremes of debt, leverage, inequality, legalized looting, monopoly, pay-to-play politics and speculative asset bubbles, a depression is inevitable.
    The pandemic lockdown will be blamed for the Greater Depression, but the lockdown only toppled all the dominoes that were already lined up. The lockdown would have been survivable if the economy hadn’t been over-indebted, over-leveraged, burdened by insanely high costs, stripmined by greedy monopolies, dependent on stock market fraud, destabilized by extreme inequality, corrupted by political pay-to-play and addicted to speculation.
    The apologists always blame depressions on central banks not printing money fast enough, while overlooking the real drivers: debt, high costs and dependence on speculative bubbles. As noted here many times, revenues and income can quickly slide lower, but debt must be serviced regardless of revenues and income.
    Once debt payments dominate expenses, any wobble in revenues / income / cash flow triggers default.
    Regarding unbearably high costs that only go higher, year after year: as noted here many times, Sickcare Will Bankrupt the Nation all by itself, never mind soaring higher education / student loan debt serfdom, skyrocketing rents, junk fees, taxes, etc.
    The truth is the cost of living is unaffordable but we can’t even acknowledge this obvious fact because even acknowledging it would threaten the entire house of cards. So instead we play-act as if we believe the bogus “inflation is dead” narratives.
    The top 5% technocrat/managerial class have done very well for themselves in the speculative run-up of destabilizing inequality, and since they run the narrative machines, we’re swamped with happy stories about the economy, all of which boil down to this absurd fantasy: since I’m doing so well, everyone else must be doing well, too.
    Since the top 5% own the lion’s share of the nation’s productive assets–stocks, bonds, business equity, investment real estate, etc.– the enormous asset bubbles have greatly boosted their wealth and income. This has enabled the wealthy to service their debt or pay it off. The bottom 95% aren’t quite so well-placed to survive a decline in income.
    Everyone who was barely keeping their head above water in making their debt payments is already in default or will soon be in default. Since the banks and shadow-banking lenders have gorged on the profits skimmed by loaning huge sums to marginal borrowers, now that these marginal borrowers are defaulting en masse the banks and lenders are about to be crushed by one wave of catastrophic losses after another.
    Student loans–already in mass default. Credit cards–the wave is rolling in as we speak. Auto loans–looking like Waimea Bay on a big day. Mortgages–better not to look.
    Corporate debt has exploded to unprecedented levels, and this is what will break the financial system. Zombie corporations are rushing to borrow billions of dollars (thanks to the Federal Reserve) but increasing their debt is only doing more of what created their fragility in the first place.
    Being able to borrow more to service your old debts is not solvency, it’s merely the semblance of solvency. We’re in the eye of the hurricane right now, as everyone holds their breath and hopes some sort of magic will make all the debt that has to be serviced every month vanish.
    It’s worth recalling that every dollar of debt is someone else’s asset and the source of their income. So when the defaults and bankruptcies sweep through the financial system, they’ll obliterate all the “wealth” of those holding bundled student and auto loan securities, mortgage backed securities, corporate bonds, and destroy the income streams these trillions in debt generated.
    All the linked fragilities and dependencies of our economy are like lines of dominoes: one default topples the entire line of dominoes of debt, leverage, derivatives, counterparty risk, credit default swaps and most devastating of all, any certainty that borrowers won’t default in the future.
    If banks and lenders can’t lend with a high degree of certainty, lending dries up and profits collapse, along with the consumer spending that was enabled by the borrowing.
    Despite their high incomes and net worth, some consequential percentage of top 5% households bringing in $300,000 a year are one layoff away from default: never mind their pristine 830 credit score; that was last month. Next month,next quarter, next year–all bets are off.
    Once you allow your economy to become dependent on extremes of debt, leverage, inequality, legalized looting, monopoly, pay-to-play politics and speculative asset bubbles, a depression is inevitable. The only question is “when,” and that’s been answered, though nobody wants to hear it: 2020 and beyond.
    It didn’t have to end this way. If our leadership / Power Elites had acted to reduce all these painfully obvious speculative extremes, dependencies and fragilities and made even modest efforts to limit the exploitation of predatory parasites that generated unprecedented inequality and corruption over the past 12 years, the economy would have been much less brittle / fragile.

    1. “Once debt payments dominate expenses, any wobble in revenues / income / cash flow triggers default.”

      Is a collapse in revenues production considered to be an example of ‘a wobble ‘?

    2. That’s a great summary you posted Mr Banker .

      Like I said , “Faulty Lending.”

  12. Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!

    NYC Criminal Justice System ‘Imploding,’ NYPD Boss Says as Homicides Hit 5-Year High – NBC New York
    https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nycs-criminal-justice-system-is-imploding-nypd-boss-says-as-homicides-hit-5-year-high/2483376/

    (some snips)is

    As calls for defunding and reforming the police department have gained steam since the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, NYC has seen a 24 percent increase in homicides year-over-year

    New York City’s homicide rate has hit a five-year high as the amount of people shot has jumped 42 percent compared to last year on the heels of an “implosion” of the city’s judicial system, according to NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea.

    A perfect storm of COVID-19 shutdowns within the judicial system (which have shunted indictments against the most dangerous illegal gun criminals), a breakdown in the city’s social safety nets (which has prisoners being released from jail straight into homelessness), and bail reform laws and case deferments have all hindered the NYPD’s efforts to staunch the bleeding, Shea believes.

    “We cannot keep people safe without keeping bad, dangerous, people off the streets,” Shea said. “You have a criminal justice system that’s imploding. That’s the kindest way to put it.”

    Shea said that if the Supreme Court can hold proceedings during the pandemic, there should be a way to arraign people and have grand juries during these pandemic times, pleading “do it virtually, do something.”

    The commissioner also said supervised release is a “fallacy,” and that there’s no system right now to keep an eye on those who are released from prison — including Riker’s Island — and supposed to be monitored.

    “Releasing people to homeless shelters is a recipe for disaster,” he said. “There is no safety net, often we don’t even have a clue where they are.”

    Shea summed up his thoughts bluntly: “The people who are suffering are the people in New York City.”

    Compared to the same week last year, NYPD crime data shows the total number of shooting victims rose 42 percent, along with 166 homicides to date compared to 134 from 2019. That represents a 24 percent increase in homicides year-over-year, marking an increase of 2.5 percent over year-to-date totals from five years ago.

    Former NYPD Chief of Patrol Wilbur Chapman said that in this instance, the uptick is the rule, not the exception.

    “Spikes in crime are not aberrations. Spikes in crime are a reality,” Chapman said. He believes that Shea’s decision to get rid of the anti-crime units was a mistake, and that small units of experienced officers who are familiar with the neighborhood is the best way to get guns off the street. Instead, he says the NYPD chose to “throw the baby out with the bath water.”

    While calling the uptick “extremely alarming,” Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams said he did not want to see “heavy-handed policing,” but rather encouraged a “new way of policing in the city that calls for community involvement.”

    “Let local communities decide who is going to police them. Police commanders are the most powerful agency heads in our city and we don’t have enough say so on who is coming to particular communities.

    One thing the former police chief seemed to be certain of: defunding the department is not the answer to race problems. Instead Chapman, who is Black, said there were other programs and issues that have contributed to systemic racism to a larger degree than policing.

    “Undereducation, poor housing, lack of employment — these are all things that are racist. The NYPD did not create them, but they are required to police those communities where these symptoms have caused a population that is underserved in terms of positive services and overserved in terms of enforcement,” Chapman said. “The reality is the other services have been underfunded and underserving communities of color. It would be much better to find funding outside of the police department to correct their deficiencies rather than blame the police department for those failures.”

    Adams, who is in favor of defunding the department, said that money would be taken away from the NYPD in order to address things that police shouldn’t be dealing with anyway.

    “Defunding police means civilianizing the department so officers are no longer performing civilian jobs. They are actually perfoming patrol and public safety – what they were hired for,” Adams said. “There is a way to look at the overspending and overbloated without taking one item from public safety. So I am with those who say we must remain safe.”

    He also said that “accountability lies on all sides” when it comes to policing, meaning changes must be made to ensure that police and community relations can improve

    1. Several million naive liberals all getting mugged and having their lives ruined is about the best thing that could possibly happen in this country.

      If we’re going to lose the election this year, at least then we can sit back and watch as their idiotic belief system blows up in their faces in the real world.

      It’s real easy to be some sort of armchair expert in a virtual ivory tower and pontificate online about how one thinks world should be — let’s put that all into practice and watch what actually happens.

      That police-free zone in Seattle is just one example.

      1. Several million naive liberals all getting mugged and having their lives ruined is about the best thing that could possibly happen in this country.

        It’s all fun and games until your ox gets gored.

        It’s going to be a conundrum for them on election day. The urge to still pull the D lever will be very strong.

        1. Peaceful protest = your neighbor’s business gets looted.

          Urban terrorism = your business gets looted.

  13. Restaurants Open for Dine In Post Covid? 2.2 Million on the Brink – Bloomberg
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/restaurants-open-for-dine-in-post-covid-2-2-million-on-the-brink

    2.2 Million Restaurants Worldwide Teeter on Brink of Collapse
    With demand plunging and costs piling up, these business owners talk about how they’re fighting to stay afloat.

    (some snips)

    With each week, more data emerges to show how the Covid-19 pandemic is permanently reshaping the restaurant industry. The world is currently on track for a radical overhaul of its food-service landscape: Hundreds have filed for bankruptcy over the last three months, according to consulting firm Aaron Allen & Associates, and the situation is poised to keep worsening.

    “Based on our estimates, we believe up to 10% of all restaurants globally will disappear, with 20% or more also going through a restructuring process,” said founder Aaron Allen. “This is a conservative case, in our view.”

    Allen estimates there are about 22 million restaurants worldwide, so the projection implies that 2.2 million of them will close. In the U.S., the industry employs 15.6 million workers, according to the National Restaurant Association.

    OpenTable, which tracks restaurant activity via reservations, estimates the failure rate could be even higher. Even before the global pandemic caused a dramatic and unprecedented shift in consumer behavior, the restaurant industry was suffering from rising debt and too much competition.

    1. We enjoyed two restaurant meals to celebrate family birthdays over the past week. Went to the local California Pizza Kitchen on Wednesday night this week. We got there a little past peak dining hours. At no point in our visit was the restaurant more than maybe twenty percent occupied.

      Hopefully they are a low debt company, because the revenue stream based on twenty percent utilization of their dining capacity won’t support much debt service.

      1. Come to think of it, one of my kids, himself an unemployed restaurant industry worker, mentioned that he heard CPK has financial problems.

        And apparently they predate the onset of the COVID-19 financial crisis.

        BDC Credit Reporter
        California Pizza Kitchen: Downgraded by Rating Groups
        January 26, 2020

        We pride ourselves on being timely about alerting readers to material new developments at under-performing BDC-financed companies. In this case, though, we’ve been slow to notice the deterioration underway at iconic restaurant chain California Pizza Kitchen (CPK). In July and August 2019, the company was downgraded by both S&P and Moody’s to speculative grade status. Here’s a sample of what the former said: “We are downgrading CPK to ‘CCC+’ from ‘B-‘ to reflect our view that the company’s capital structure may be unsustainable over the long term.

      2. Enjoyed a takeout dinner last night from a mom n pop Mexican restaurant. Every socially distant table was occupied and there were several takeout orders.

        I’m sure they would have preferred that I dine in, but business seemed decent.

        1. Enjoyed a takeout dinner last night from a mom n pop Mexican restaurant.

          Us too.

          Every socially distant table was occupied and there were several takeout orders.

          Outdoor tables were decently occupied but no indoor seating.

  14. After erring for several months on the side of extreme precaution, it seems California has taken a 180 degree turn to reopen in the face of an uncontrolled spike in COVID-19 cases, including non-socially-distanced, racially-motivated mass street protests and riots, for good measure.

    “Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!”

    1. I think you can only lock people up for so long and than they start being willing to take some risks.

      I couldn’t believe how packed the local restaurant was I went to last night to pick up some take out
      Every table and booth was filled and about 15 people waiting for sit down service.
      I looked around and I noticed a lot of older people dining and taking off their masks once they were seated . A overweight older lady with a walker was standing right next to the cashier station. If she wasn’t a high risk person I don’t know who would be. No social distancing going on at all. They had glass around the booths and the servers were wearing masks, but just a full house.
      Since about 25% of the customers looked like high risk because of age I was a little shocked.

      So , even the high risk people wanted to resume their dining.

        1. PB, they say I’m high risk because of age. I don’t have any medical conditions except for my eyesight getting worse. I don’t take any medications and my blood pressure is low. So, I don’t know if I’m high risk or not. But, I wear the stupid mask and social distance because they are saying age is a risk factor.

    2. Newsom says California is able to ‘pause’ reopening if necessary as state reports 32% increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations
      Local News
      by: Nouran Salahieh
      Posted: Jun 25, 2020 / 03:00 PM PDT / Updated: Jun 25, 2020 / 03:25 PM PDT

      Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday officials are concerned about a recent rise in California’s coronavirus transmission and hospitalization rates, warning the state is able to “pause” reopening if necessary.

      The state’s coronavirus positivity rate jumped to 5.1% in the last two weeks, and to 5.6% in the last week, while hospitalizations for COVID-19 went up 32% in the past 14 days.

    3. it seems California has taken a 180 degree turn to reopen

      Disneyland cancelled it July 17 reopening. Something tells me that it won’t be reopening for a while.

      Also, Disney announced that it’s going to retheme their signature Splash Mountain ride, sending Brer Rabbit and the others to the woke dustbin (allegedly the ride was “painful” for blacks, even though they would stand in long lines to ride it) and will retheme it to a movie (The Princess and the Frog) that only grossed $100M, was the 5th highest grossing animated movie in 2009 (in other words, it was a dud), and whose only redeeming feature is that the “princess” was black. No schedule was announced, not surprising as Disney is bleeding cash in torrents these days.

  15. Dumb question of the day:

    Aside from who is borrowing the money used to buy stocks, is there any substantive difference between individuals’ use of margin loans to buy stocks in the runup to the 1930s Great Depression and the recent trend in companies using low income loans to buy back, and inflate the prices of, their own stock shares?

    It seems like a similar type of financial collapse could result in both cases if the borrower suddenly lost the ability to make debt payments and had to sell stock shares to raise cash.

    1. Follow up question: Does it make any sense to allow banks to make loans to other companies that enable this practice, but then prohibit the banks from purchasing their own shares? How is that fair?

      1. Is $700 bn alot?

        The Financial Times
        Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
        Bank stress tests
        Fed caps dividends and bans buybacks by big US banks
        Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs shares fall in after-hours trading after central bank acts
        The Federal Reserve released stress test results for 33 leading banks
        © AP
        Laura Noonan in New York yesterday

        The Federal Reserve capped dividends and banned share buybacks by big US banks as it released an analysis showing Covid-19 could trigger $700bn of loan losses and push some lenders close to their capital minimums.

        Announcing the results of a trio of exercises on the health of America’s top banks, the Fed on Thursday said 33 lenders that underwent “stress tests” would be barred from buying back their shares until at least the fourth quarter of this year.

        The eight biggest had already voluntarily suspended buybacks, which account for about 70 per cent of US bank shareholder distributions, until July. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s chief executive, has said buybacks were unlikely to resume until the outlook for the economy was clearer. The Fed said the “provisions may be extended . . . quarter-by-quarter.”

          1. Figures that the market would drop as my RSU’s vest on Monday.

            That’s a good thing – they’ll tax you less when they vest. Unless you’re immediately selling, then it doesn’t matter I suppose.

    2. Let’s take a look at this:

      If a company borrows money in order to buy a tangible asset that has an inherent value then he ends up with debt and a tangible asset that has an inherent value.

      But if the company borrows money in order to buy up its own stock then it ends up with debt and an asset that does not possess an inherent value, instead its value is determined by the collective opinions of numerous investors, opinions of strangers. And these opinions of the value of the stock is heavily dependent on the behavior of the price of the stock, a price that can be heavily influenced by the company that is buying up the stock.

      So if borrowing commences and stock buying commences then the price of the stock (hence the value of the stock) will rise. But if the buying of the stock ceases then the price of the stock will decline (which means the value of the stock will decline).

      So the end result of this borrowing-and-buying and then the ending of this borrowing-and-buying is a rise of the price of the stock, which is paid for by borrowed money, then a decline of the price of the stock after the buying is halted, which means the end result is a bunch of stock bought up at higher prices by the use of borrowed money that ends up experiencing a decline when the buying stops. The only thing that remains is the debt. It would be wonderful if the debt used to buy the stock would decline as the price of the stock declined but this is not how it works; The way it works is the debt gets to stick around.

      I asked my twelve year old paper boy (who is also my financial advisor) if this borrowing to buy up company stock was a good idea and he called me and idiot for asking him such a stupid question and insisted that from now on if I wanted him to continue delivering newspapers to be every day I would have to pay him in advance.

      1. Would it work to (1) borrow lots of money at near-zero lending rates, (2) use the borrowed money to buy your own company’s stock shares in order to drive up the price, (3) sell the higher-priced shares for a capital gain, and (4) use the sale proceeds to repay the loan?

        This seems like an awesome way for companies to enrich themselves and their shareholders. What could possibly go wrong?

  16. Are you worried that the recent disconnect between the real economic situation and risk asset prices may someday end?

    1. The Financial Times
      Philip Georgiadis 2 hours ago
      Credit Suisse investment arm sees tough summer ahead for stocks

      Credit Suisse has guided its wealthy clients to cash in following the stock market’s rapid recovery, warning that financial markets face a “challenging backdrop” going into the summer.

      The Swiss bank’s investment arm was one of the relatively few institutions to urge clients to ‘buy the dip’ in late March, a call that has been vindicated by a roughly 30 per cent rally in global equities powered by central banks’ largesse and signs of economic recovery.

      For now though, the bank’s chief investment officer thinks it is time to take a step back.

      Michael Strobaek wrote in a note to clients yesterday:

      The upcoming earnings season, a recent uptick in coronavirus infection numbers and political developments in the USA create a challenging backdrop for financial markets going into the summer.

      1. “Besides the point that new cases are being detected more because testing has increased, and that younger and healthier people are getting the disease,
        Wood raises the possibility that, like severe acute respiratory syndrome, COVID-19 could simply burn itself out as it mutates into a less virulent form over time.”

        Unfortunately for Mr. Wood and the gullible fools who believe him, this is not why the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak was limited to less than 10,000 cases and 1000 deaths worldwide, and ended about six months after it began.

        Rather it was the absence of asymptomatic transmission and the resulting ease of isolating cases that made SARS easy to contain.

        By contrast, COVID-19 has asymptomatic transmission, and the CDC’s latest estimates suggest actual cases may be ten times higher than the official count if asymptomatic cases were included.

        1. Better keep those masks handy…

          COVID-19
          CDC Says COVID-19 Cases in US May Be 10 Times Higher Than Reported
          “This virus causes so much asymptomatic infection,” CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield said. “The traditional approach of looking for symptomatic illness and diagnosing it obviously underestimates the total amount of infections.”
          Published June 25, 2020 • Updated on June 25, 2020 at 10:49 am

          1. So if the number of infected people is ten times higher than the reported number of people then it seems that the virus is only one-tenth as problematic for people than was previously thought.

          2. Maybe…unless the unproblematicness is mainly due to them hiding under their beds at home.

          3. Maybe…unless the unproblematicness is mainly due to them hiding under their beds at home.

            But did they die?

        2. SARS didn’t mutate to something less virulent. But the 1918 flu did (after 18 months and three waves). And this is what I think is going to happen here. Data out of China show that antibodies are short-lived, which does not bode well for a vaccine.

          I’m not optimistic about mask-wearing either. Ideally, masks would take away all of the virus’s viable hosts, forcing it into extinction. But that’s not realistic unless the entire world wears masks for, what, 18 months?

          No, I think we’re just going to have to wait this out. Masks and social distancing will buy time for better treatments, and for the virus to mutate down. Even then, it’s not promising. There are now stories of finding lung lesions on people who never showed a symptom. WTF can we do for that?

      1. Day traders are competing against the sharks who are protected from moral hazard by the fed.gov bailouts.

  17. What does it take these daze to qualify for too-big-to-fail treatment at a moment of financial crisis?

    1. Central banks need to re-think rules on risk-taking at hedge funds, insurance companies and even corporations, IMF’s market division chief says
      Published: June 26, 2020 at 8:50 a.m. ET
      By Greg Robb
      Central banks did the right thing in being aggressive, fast and large, but there are consequences for risk taking
      Tobias Adrian, Director of the International Monetary Fund’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Getty Images

      Emergency actions by central banks to shore up the financial system in the face of the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year were appropriate, but regulators will need to re-think the rules about risk-taking for hedge funds and insurance companies, often called non-banks that operate in the “shadow banking system”, the top financial regulator at the International Monetary Fund says.

      When it became clear earlier this year that the coronavirus pandemic was going to disrupt the U.S. economy, financial markets faltered and the Federal Reserve rushed to the rescue as did other central banks around the world.

      The Fed purchased $2 trillion of dollars in asset purchases and cut its policy interest rate to zero. It also expanded its emergency lending to a wider range of non-banks, like hedge funds and insurance companies, than it did during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. This lending saved these firms from the risk of large losses.

      Tobias Adrian, the IMF’s top financial watchdog, in an interview with Marketwatch, said that he supported the Fed’s emergency actions but said central banks now need to “rethink” risk-taking rules for these non-banks.

      “I think central banks did the right thing in being aggressive, fast and large. But there are consequences and those are on risk taking. The market is going to price in that this is how the central banks behave when bad things happen,” he said.

        1. More easily said than done…especially when someone else is in power twelve years later.

  18. Two nights in a row of statues being pulled down at the Colorado State Capitol and in Civic Center Park and as channel 7 reports “No arrests have been made in either case as of 7:15 a.m.”

    Denver sounds like a great place to not pay property taxes in.

  19. Something is really starting to bother me about this minority rule concept. You have the minority rule by the fat cat 1% looting the wealth. Than you got a minority race that is making all kinds of demands.

    What ever happened to Majority rule as long as it doesn’t violate the Constitution?
    It seems to me that the hard working Majority is nothing.
    Even Homeless people have more clout than the business the homeless are trampling on.
    I just don’t get it. The criminals, the homeless, the welfare recipients , the ilegals, and the minority FAT CAT Globalist 1% rule.
    Whatever this power grab is it will destroy America. Can’t help but think this is what the Commies want.

    1. It seems like Civil War 2.0 is being waged. And yes, destruction of this country appears to be the intent.

      1. Saw this article on CNN’s financial page:

        On June 5, a car full of White supremacists drove through the streets of Knoxville, Tennessee, harassing and abusing people attending a Black Lives Matter protest. One of those in the car shouted to a group of protesters: “You wanna die? Come on in. 9mm with your name on it.”

        So a car load of armed rednecks taunted a mob of BLM vandals. No violence happened. CNN of course is apoplectic. I’m waiting for the call for all white people to don sack cloth and ashes, and beg for forgiveness.

        Meanwhile, statues are toppled, shops are looted, etc.; but it’s “mostly peaceful” protesting.

        Part of me has a hard time believing that any moderates will pull the D lever this November, but I could be wrong.

    2. Can’t help but think this is what the Commies want.

      Two explanations:
      1) The above
      2) Utter stupidity and incompetence

      I’m going with #1

    3. It seems to me that the hard working Majority is nothing.

      They are the livestock that are being worked and harvested in the farm that is the USA. The fight is between the farmers and the predators.

  20. I’m watching and trying to listen to the Coronvirus Task Force press briefing but Pence is SO BORING.

        1. I’m fairly sure that all of Trump’s wives were hotter than Mrs Pence when they were divorced.

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