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We Saw This Exponential Run-Up, It Was Irrational Exuberance

A report from the Review Journal in Nevada. “Las Vegas mortgage delinquencies rose sharply after the coronavirus pandemic devastated the economy. Payments were at least 30 days late on 8.5 percent of Southern Nevada home loans in April, up more than double from 3.4 percent in March, CoreLogic reported. ‘Sadly, I’m not surprised that it jumped more in Las Vegas than it did in many other markets,’ CoreLogic chief economist Frank Nothaft said of the mortgage delinquency rate. ‘It’s totally unprecedented.'”

The Orange County Register in California. “Coronavirus-linked business shutdowns have more than doubled the number of Southern California homeowners who are missing mortgage payments. CoreLogic reports 6% of borrowers in Los Angeles and Orange counties in April were late 30 days or more with their mortgage payments vs. 2.3% delinquent a year earlier. In the Inland Empire, 7.1% of borrowers were at least up 30 days late vs. 3.5% in April 2019. Southern California unemployment was 17% in May.”

“It’s not just a local surge of tardy payments. Nationally, the 30-day delinquency rate rose after 27 consecutive months of declines to 6.1% of mortgages, the highest since January 2016. ‘SoCal is still faring relatively better than some parts of the country where delinquencies spiked to over 10% in April,’ said Selma Hepp, CoreLogic’s deputy chief economist. ‘Data suggests that almost 50% of loans in forbearance are now in an extension following initial forbearance.'”

From KPIX in California. “A controversial short-term rental company is now engaging in a fight with the City of San Francisco. Sonder wants to break its lease on a Market Street, blaming San Francisco for lost revenue during the COVID-19 pandemic. The lawsuit cites San Francisco’s eviction moratorium that prevents landlords from evicting anyone who cannot pay because of financial hardships during COVID-19.”

“It states, ‘these laws have had a material adverse effect, a crushing one, on Sonder’s operations at the premises.’ Sonder can neither effectively market vacant units nor ensure that ‘existing tenants pay rent.’ Tech companies make up for the majority of tenancies at these intermediate-term occupancy apartments. Neighbors are now wondering if Sonder wins, what happens to the building?”

From Bisnow. “Student housing owners are seeing pre-leasing stall compared to prior years. As of last month, national pre-lease occupancy stood at 74.9%, below the 78.8% seen at that point last year but a notable 6% month-over-month improvement, according to RealPage Market Analyst Carl Whitaker. In May, California State University, the nation’s largest four-year public university system, went almost entirely online across its 23 campuses and approximately 480,000 undergraduate students. Several other big colleges in the state, including UC Los Angeles, UC Irvine and the University of Southern California have decided to follow a similar model, and smaller schools across California have followed suit.”

“The result for many of the state’s student housing owners has been a drop in performance for heretofore reliable properties, especially around campuses like California State University, Sacramento and California State University, Fullerton. Among NB Private Capital’s list of California properties is Campus Walk, a student housing community adjacent to California State University, Chico. Right next to campus, the property is normally close to fully pre-leased by now but is currently almost 20% behind, which Paul Perkins, chief investment officer of NB Private Capital, said is strongly indicative of a marketwide slowdown given Campus Walk’s proximity to campus and overall quality.”

“‘To say that we’re 18%, 19% off of last year’s number is saying a lot, because that building usually goes first,’ Perkins said. NB Private Capital also owns The Element, near CSU’s Sacramento campus, which is also almost 20% behind last year’s pre-leasing pace and also indicative of a marketwide slowdown, Perkins said.”

“In student housing, unlike with other property types, a lot will be sorted out soon enough, said Capital Markets Vice Chairman Ryan Lang. ‘By a defined time frame, call it end of August this year, we’re going to know the state of the industry, whether it be good, bad or somewhere in between,’ he said.”

The New York Real Estate Journal. “When looking across the country, New York was hit hardest by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to all of the above factors mentioned making it difficult to sustain profitability, potential investors in New York commercial real estate have changed the way they underwrite properties. Given all of the new risk factors, some underwriting changes include investors upping vacancy percentages to 9%+, increasing capitalization rate percentages, decreasing retail/residential rents and increasing future property tax increases into their models.”

“Investors consider the current market a very strong buyers’ market. Many owners are deciding to either hold onto their buildings or sell their buildings at discounts and move their money to a more investor friendly state with stabilized returns. We are starting to see owners accepting lower pricing so they can move their capital out of New York.”

From Bisnow on New York. “Lawsuits between retailers and their landlords have become fairly commonplace in New York City over the last couple of months, but when Valentino sued its Fifth Avenue landlord last month, it wasn’t over rent payments or a force majeure clause: The Italian luxury retailer claimed it should be allowed to break its lease because its address was no longer prestigious enough. It could also be a harbinger of a completely new era for the 10-block strip of Upper Fifth Avenue that once was the world’s most expensive retail corridor.”

“The average asking retail rent on Fifth Avenue between 49th and 59th streets was at $3K per SF at the end of June, according to CBRE. That lofty price represents a nearly 5% decrease from a year earlier, per CBRE, and it was down nearly 25% from 2018, when asking rents along the strip were north of $3,900, according to the Real Estate Board of New York.”

“‘Rents are going to be under $1K a foot for the first time in 20 years. It was the late ’90s when they were last under $1K a foot,’ said CBRE Vice Chairman Richard Hodos. ‘We saw this exponential run-up, it was irrational exuberance. There were tenants that were outbidding each other, it was ridiculous,’ he said. ‘The landlords benefited from it, but we are in a different world today — though landlords may not admit it to the press.'”

From Bizwest in Colorado. “A Chicago-based development company faces a foreclosure action and millions of dollars in mechanics liens over a stalled apartment project in Old Town Fort Collins.”

From Hawaii Business Magazine. “HBM wanted the inside story on changes in the local real estate industry, and especially how that affects buyers and sellers of local homes. So we invited six experts to a video discussion. Don Butler, President, Hawaii Mortgage Experts: Self-employed people definitely go through a bit of a ringer. If they’re not an essential business, we can’t use their income or some lenders will allow us to use a portion of their income depending on the likelihood of their businesses continuing as usual. Previously, if we had two years’ tax returns we probably wouldn’t need a profit and loss statement. Now they’re asking for profit and loss and corresponding bank statements, which is a big change.”

“Every lender is looking at unemployment risk a little differently, depending on their exposure in different markets. From our side, as a broker, we have multiple lenders to go to, so we’re having to figure out which lender is the easiest for which type of borrower, and then of those lenders who offers the best rate. It’s been a challenge for us. We lost a few here and there. People were laid off and not getting monthly income, so we weren’t able to use the unemployment benefits to qualify.”

“For homeowners who are struggling financially, the forbearance piece that the government enacted has been a huge help. The government basically said that for all Fannie-Freddie government loans, if anyone calls and says, ‘Hey, I’m in trouble due to COVID,’ the lender is required to grant forbearance for three months. After those three months are up, then you owe those three payments plus your next payment, all at one crack, which is scary. They are allowed to extend it for up to a year so they could call back in two months and say, ‘I need another three months.'”

“But the problem is the payment keeps getting built up and a lot of the Mainland servicers are saying, ‘No, you got to pay the full crack at one time.’ I think more lenders are tacking it on to the end of the loan because even though the borrower doesn’t pay their mortgage as part of this forbearance, the lender is actually obligated to pay the note holder as if they’ve received the payment.”

“Some lenders are worried that they won’t be able to continue lending because they have all these payments they have to make for the people in forbearance. We had some big name lenders that were contemplating bankruptcy.”

This Post Has 94 Comments
  1. ‘Previously, if we had two years’ tax returns we probably wouldn’t need a profit and loss statement. Now they’re asking for profit and loss and corresponding bank statements’

    Basically no-doc loans.

    ‘People were laid off and not getting monthly income, so we weren’t able to use the unemployment benefits to qualify’

    Now that’s tight lending!

    1. This is confusing. Last week Wells Fargo was requiring 12-18 months cash on top of the down payment, practically ensuring that no one would be approved. Now they’re approving loans based on unemployment bennies?

      1. ‘we weren’t able to use the unemployment benefits to qualify’

        The no-doc loans are gone too.

  2. ‘potential investors in New York commercial real estate have changed the way they underwrite properties. Given all of the new risk factors, some underwriting changes include investors upping vacancy percentages to 9%+, increasing capitalization rate percentages, decreasing retail/residential rents and increasing future property tax increases into their models’

    This is a credit event.

    ‘Many owners are deciding to either hold onto their buildings or sell their buildings at discounts and move their money to a more investor friendly state with stabilized returns. We are starting to see owners accepting lower pricing so they can move their capital out of New York’

    “The sun don’t shine on the same dog’s ass all the time.”
    Catfish Hunter

    1. This is poor reporting (fake news?). Walmart still uses mainframes. Every major bank does. Almost every airline does (Southwest is a notable exception). Toyota and GM, Caterpillar, etc… I could go on and on. Although Mainframe is on the downswing, the world still runs on mainframe. There is no possible way their hardware is still from 1978 – that is just when it was first installed. They have a staffing issue, not a mainframe issue. Even the least powerful zSeries mainframe on this planet that is still powered on can handle many thousands of transactions per second. Put them on Linux and these government goobers would be every bit as useless as they have always been.

      1. PS – I see the reporter is just blindly parroting Shelley Zumwalt’s comments (she “directs” the agency). Obviously she has a vested interest in blaming the computer instead of her own people, and I’m sure it wouldn’t break her heart to get a larger budget to replace the existing system with no discernible benefit to the taxpayer….

      2. Even the least powerful zSeries mainframe

        I was involved in the IBM storage systems that were OEMed from LSI Logic in the 2000-2010 time period that connected to those. Not sure if Netapp still supplies them after the purchase from LSI when I got involuntarily moved along into the field that eventually led to my China adventures.

      3. IBM still sells mainframes that are backward compatible with ones sold decades ago.

        HP and Oracle/Sun still sell UNIX mainframes: SuperDome and Sparc SuperCluster. SuperCluster can run and scale apps that were written decades ago.

        The tricky thing about moving existing systems to Linux or the Cloud is that the apps don’t just recompile and run on the new platforms. It takes copious amounts of elbow grease to port them.

        I have little doubt that many systems running IBM’s Mainframe OS or AIX, HP-UX or Sun Solaris will still be running when I take my dirt nap.

        1. “…IBM still sells mainframes that are backward compatible with ones sold decades ago…”

          Indeed. 360/370 architecture is alive and well even to this day.

          My own background is with Digital Equipment Corporation.

          Indeed, emulators exist today that will run 16-bit code linked under RSX or RSTS or RT11 running on PDP-11’s going back to the early 1970’s. For 32 bit VAX/VMS, problem can be solved by going the emulator route or with various types of direct to binary translators. (and very soon on commodity i86 hosts with a re-compile/re-link under VMS 9.*)

          I have heard 2nd hand stories that the FAA and other branches of government are still running PDP-8 (late 1960’s) codes.. (via emulator).

          1. When you think about it, the people who wrote and debugged most of the old code are long gone, and for the most part the documentation was minimal or is flat out lost. It’s so much easier and cheaper to buy a backwards compatible new machine, or use an emulator, than to try to get that legacy code to run on a new OS.

          2. In Colorado

            “…When you think about it, the people who wrote and debugged most of the old code are long gone, and for the most part the documentation was minimal or is flat out lost…”

            Not to mention lost or out of rev source code.

            Don’t even get me started.

            A whole blog could be started about the impossible stupidity that small/medium (and especially) large companies take when it comes to protecting their IP.

            That’s why they pay consultants the big bucks!

            Case in point:

            There was quite a scandal a few years back that (I believe) the Los Angeles Unified school district blew over $100 million on a payroll conversion that never worked.

          3. Not to mention lost or out of rev source code.

            No kidding. I remember working at a small firm on 8 bit firmware. Our “version control” was copying the current source code to 1 or more floppies, writing the current revision on the label (say 2.7.1) and sticking it in a box.

            But even when there was version control, it often wasn’t backed up. I remember one place where we used “SourceSafe”. One day it became corrupt. That’s when we found out that IT wasn’t backing up that server after all. So we figured out who had the latest/best snapshot on their machine and used that as the new baseline.

          4. I still have a soft spot in my heart for our university’s VAX 11/780. Coding, text-based browsing, and IRC on monochrome DEC monitors…good times. 🙂

      4. Ive seen this discussed , the opinion of some is that some cool front end was sold to them which cannot ideally interact with the old mainframe; i e., the cobol is doing its job, the ibm mainframe is doing its job.

        1. “…some cool front end was sold to them which cannot ideally interact with the old mainframe..”

          Sales pitch

          We will Webify your 3270 terminal farm!

          Err, not exactly the way things work.

        2. the cobol is doing its job, the ibm mainframe is doing its job

          One thing about old code is that it’s usually very efficient, vs. lots of modern apps that run on lumbering interpreted languages (Javascript. Python, etc.) and have zillions of lines of code.

          1. This.
            Writing efficient programs is a lost art these days. I suspect that millions of lines of code makes it difficult to de-bug, especially if said program is assembled from code written in different locations, that comes with its own “convoluted” logic.

          2. I suspect that millions of lines of code makes it difficult to de-bug

            Not to mention that any kind of testing, even unit testing, is a half azzed effort in most shops.

          3. True, and good luck finding a decent debugger. Jillions of codesets, side effects unknown, are cobbled together and they want to build a robust system, or even automate driving? No thanks.

            Let the people who think that fly on the Boeing 737 max.

          4. “Writing efficient programs is a lost art these days.”

            Adding descriptive comments is a lost art too. I’ve seen someone lose a job over some SAS code that lacked comments for some complex data mining blocks.

  3. Vineyard, UT Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As Salt Lake City Sellers Bray And Stamp Their Feet

    https://www.zillow.com/vineyard-ut/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist stated, “If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.”

  4. ” ‘We saw this exponential run-up, it was irrational exuberance. There were tenants that were outbidding each other, it was ridiculous,’ he said. ‘The landlords benefited from it, but we are in a different world today — though landlords may not admit it to the press.’”

    That stretch of 5th Avenue was the ritziest in New York — in the 1950s. Up until 20 years ago, Madison Avenue north of 60th on the Upper East Side was even ritzier.

    Then they put high-end retail at the new Time Warner Center on (ahem) Columbus Circle. Soho became all high-end retail. The old World Trade Center had a middle class shopping center, but it was rebuilt with high-end retail. Before it was finished the former World Financial Center, now Brookfield Place, was converted to high-end retail. Then they built all that new development at Hudson Yards and Manhattan West on the Far West Side with — wait for it — high-end retail.

    I suspect no one who reads this blog would be willing to pay what it costs for a cup of coffee and a sandwich in any of these places. This was flat insane, and what is worse is the independent businesses that were forced to close, and others that never opened, due to those insane rents.

    With the exception of a couple of locations in the Bronx, all of the looting was in the high-end retail areas.

    1. They only want to spend $1T. Compared to the $3T the Dems want to spend it almost sounds responsible, until you realize it’s a trillion dollars that won’t ever be repaid.

  5. Payments were at least 30 days late on 8.5 percent of Southern Nevada home loans in April, up more than double from 3.4 percent in March, CoreLogic reported.

    Is that a lot?

  6. Sonder can neither effectively market vacant units nor ensure that ‘existing tenants pay rent.’

    Gosh, who knew that “compassion” could have unintended consequences?

  7. ‘By a defined time frame, call it end of August this year, we’re going to know the state of the industry, whether it be good, bad or somewhere in between,’ he said.”

    We at the HBB don’t need until the end of August to tell you what’s blindingly obvious, Ryan: the student rental biz is schlonged.

  8. Los Alamitos, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Orange County Housing Market Turns Toxic On Skyrocketing Mortgage Defaults And Collapsing Demand

    https://www.zillow.com/los-alamitos-ca/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As an noted economist said, “With 25 million excess, empty and defaulted houses out there, there is no need to build more.”

    1. It’s only a matter of time before the U.S. is no longer the world’s reserve currency.

      Silver is smashing higher in response to the Fed’s monetary lunacy that is debasing the dollar into worthlessness.

          1. Invest in politicians.

            (By the way, this *is* a bubble. I was being sarcastic. One of the Real Vision guys called bubble only when the Robin Hood guys started day trading Hertz.)

    2. the generations who cashed it in

      Does Larry get punished in this scenario, or just the rest of us Peons?

      1. By some miracle, Larry thinks his pile is safe. I’d like to know the psychology behind his generalization.

    3. “It’s only a matter of time before the U.S. is no longer the world’s reserve currency. ”

      The US isn’t a currency. In the case of the Dollar, it will remain the currency of choice for a very long time.

      King Dollar my good friend…Kong Dollar

      1. Any thoughts on how long from now the Fed’s feverish money printing will lead to irrevocable deflation?

        1. Shouldn’t it lead to inflation? But who knows, all the old rules have gone out the window it would seem.

          1. Maybe it’s different here, but when the fever finally broke in Japan, 30 years or so of unstoppable deflation ensued.

  9. The Italian luxury retailer claimed it should be allowed to break its lease because its address was no longer prestigious enough.

    Wha? Buildings covered with graffiti and trash-strewn sidewalks where Gimme Dats lie in wait for victims in a libtard-maladministered cesspool are no longer prestigious? B…b…but edgy urban vibe!

  10. The landlords benefited from it, but we are in a different world today — though landlords may not admit it to the press.’”

    Real Journalists and their globalist media outlets are rushing to cover this story…with a pillow, until it stops squirming.

  11. I read it frequently on here that a city or any entity is always run better by R rather than D The D’s are corrupt inept liberals
    ooops
    COLUMBUS, Ohio—Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder (R) was arrested Tuesday morning ahead of an announcement about a $60 million federal racketeering case related to Ohio’s new nuclear bailout law, according to sources and media reports.

    1. I’ve been non-partisan for awhile now. I say members of both parties are equally fiscally irresponsible, equally likely to be bought out by various interests, and equally likely to be outright corrupt.

      “It didn’t happen by accident. Governors and legislators, Republicans and Democrats, repeatedly approved financially toxic changes that created the worst-funded pension system in the country.”

      https://www.chicagobusiness.com/static/section/pensions.html

      1. Ive been saying this for years how can actuatires be so wrong in calculating pensions?? My guess is they never expected millions of people to live so long by Stopping smoking and getting healthy………
        “There’s not an actuary in America that could’ve generated the analysis of what the real cost of that legislation was in one day,” says Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation, a Chicago-based government watchdog, which opposed the payment-skipping plan.

        1. I don’t think the problem was with the actuaries. The problem was politicians who promised pensions based on unrealistic return on investment expectations.

          1. True but i think everyone underestimated how many stopped smoking and lived 5-10 15 years longer then expected.

          2. I doubt that came as a surprise. The rise in life expectancy was slow and gradual. It rose 8 years since 1960. No one got caught with their pants down.

            If anything was unexpected, it was the near zero interest rate environment.

        2. There’s not an actuary in America that could’ve generated the analysis of what the real cost of that legislation was in one day

          The point being made there was that the bill was rushed through the legislature before anyone had time to determine the financial effects.

    2. R’s are crooked too, but they seem a little less inclined to turn their cities into cesspools.

      1. The R base hates corruption and corrupt incumbents, and wants them locked up. The D base is unfazed by corruption, endlessly justifies it, and repeatedly re-elects deeply corrupt incumbents. That’s one big difference.

        1. Criminality – and a hatred for western civ/law and order/Christianity is really the demoncrats’ only common bond; the different factions would kill each other in a heartbeat if they could. They long ago abandoned any ideals or policies and became a criminal organization. I woke up to the reality a few years into adulthood – perhaps they’ve always been that way and the mask has slowly fallen until now its almost completely off, ironic given the times we’re in.

    3. What a low-effort gotcha post. So very low-effort.

      Speaker Householder’s arrest isn’t gonna un-murder the 8 year old girl murdered in Atlanta, it’s not gonna un-murder the 1 year old boy murdered in New York. It’s not gonna restore all the merchandise to the looted stores. It’s not gonna un-vandalize all the vandalized churches with the beheaded Jesus and Mary. And guess what else, Mr. Low Effort, it’s not gonna make Chicago and the State of Illinois’ pension fund solvent.

      There is no upvote button on the HBB. If that’s what you’re looking for, consider going back to Reddit 🙁

      1. Have some more, here from the New York Times:

        “Nearly two months after four of its officers were charged with killing George Floyd, the Minneapolis Police Department is reeling, with police officers leaving the job in large numbers, crime surging and politicians planning a top-to-bottom overhaul of the force.

        Veteran officers say that morale within the department is lower than they have ever experienced. Some officers are scaling back their policing efforts, concerned that any contentious interactions on the street could land them in trouble. And many others are calling it quits altogether.

        “It’s almost like a nuclear bomb hit the city, and the people who didn’t perish are standing around,” Officer Rich Walker Sr., a 16-year Minneapolis police veteran and union official, said of the mood within the department. “I’m still surprised that we’ve got cops showing up to work, to be honest.”

        Bed. Made. Lie.

        1. A year from now the retired Minneapolis cops should put up a billboard somewhere downtown, with them relaxing on a boat on the gulf coast, with the caption: “Miss us?”

        2. Not to worry there will be more than enough new hires available to replace the old dead wood.

          1. The functionally illiterate are going to graduate and cooperate. Minneapolis won’t need a police department, and the money will be better spent on higher learning.

          2. The functionally illiterate are going to graduate and cooperate. Minneapolis won’t need a police department, and the money will be better spent on higher learning.

            Thanks, I needed a good laugh this morning.

      2. Some additional details:
        https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/fbi-agents-swarm-ohio-house-speaker-larry-householders-farm-in-connection-with-bribery-investigation/95-9113992a-c404-4b2d-842e-d090d304477e

        “Householder pushed hard for the passage of the roughly $1 billion financial rescue and offered praise when it narrowly cleared the General Assembly last July over the objections of even several of his Republican colleagues.”

        The other four defendants along with Householder and Generation Now are:

        Jeffrey Longstreth, advisor to Householder
        Neil Clark, longtime Statehouse lobbyist
        Matthew Borges, former Ohio Republican Party Chairman
        Juan Cespedes, co-founder of The Oxley Group, a Columbus-based consulting firm

        Borges was ousted three years ago following the election of President Donald Trump and has since organized a Super PAC in support of current Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

  12. Tampa, FL Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Guf Coast Housing Market Turns Toxic On Rampant Appraisal And Mortgage Fraud

    https://www.zillow.com/tampa-fl-33617/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a leading economist advises, “Mortgage debt is the most toxic and damaging debt of all. Avoid it at all costs.”

  13. Driving through Las Vegas while reading this thread. The economic situation certainly has done wonders for the traffic.

      1. Just passed Baker. Outside thermometer hit a high of 114 F, but now all the way down to 112 F as we approach Barstow.

    1. The traffic was much better two months ago! I’ve had to adjust the amount of time I allow to get places…back to nearly what I allowed BC.

  14. The Financial Times
    Peter Wells 2 hours ago
    California surpasses 400,000 coronavirus cases, closes in on New York
    Peter Wells and Matthew Rocco in New York

    California has become the second US state — after New York — to have confirmed 400,000 coronavirus cases since the pandemic began after passing the milestone for the first time on Tuesday.

    A further 9,231 people tested positive for Covid-19 over the past 24 hours, the state’s health department revealed, up from nearly 6,900 on Monday, pushing the overall total to 400,769 cases.

    That puts the Golden State on track to overtake New York as early as Wednesday to be the US state with the most confirmed coronavirus cases, according to Financial Times calculations with Covid Tracking Project data. California has averaged 9,180 new cases a day over the past seven days, while New York, which reported 855 new cases today to reach 408,181 overall, has averaged about 715 a day.

    New York, one of the early hotspots for the virus in the US, confirmed its 400,000th case on July 10 — the same day California crossed 300,000.

    Florida, which as of Tuesday had confirmed a total of 369,834 cases, could reveal on Friday it has topped 400,000 cases, based on a seven-day average that has remained above 11,000 new cases for eight days straight.

    Texas, which on July 17 became only the fourth state with 300,000 confirmed cases, could reach the next round number milestone in a little over a week. As of Monday, the state had a total of 332,434 cases and had averaged 9,732 cases a day for the past seven days.

    While California’s daily case numbers have hovered close to 10,000 a day — and include two record days of more than 11,000 each — the most populous state in the US is now averaging about 125,000 tests a day, more than anywhere else. California has seen the rate of tests coming back positive level off in the past two weeks following a rise in infections this summer, similar to a trend seen in some other recent hotspots for the virus.

    The positivity rate over the past seven days was 7.5 per cent, the same as the previous week, according to a Financial Times analysis of figures from the Covid Tracking Project. For the week ended on July 7, California had a positivity rate of 6.7 per cent.

    1. The number of cases is meaningless. First of all those simply are tested. Many people have been tested repeatedly, so those will count in the totals.

      Second it’s the death rate and the intensive care rate that matters. You’ll find NY, NJ, and CT have way out of proportion death rates to case rates.

      1. If a COVID positive motorcyclist dies in a crash, but is market as a COVID death, what’s the point of a “death rate?”

  15. The Financial Times
    The Big Read US economy
    Is the rebound in America’s economy already over?
    A rise in coronavirus cases in the most populous US states is halting consumer and business activity
    © Miami Beach, July 14 | Getty
    James Politi in Washington yesterday

    It was the missing cars that first alerted Maryann Ferenc: the economic rebound that she and many others had been hoping to see at Florida’s Pass-a-Grille Beach was already in danger of vanishing.

    “July 4 and you could find a parking spot all day long, you could find several parking spots all day long,” says Ms Ferenc, who owns a number of restaurants in the Tampa area as well as a boutique hotel along that stretch of the Gulf coast.

    “That was the first indicator, and you could just notice the difference, through the entire weekend and then the following week, you saw that drop.”

    In the run-up to Independence Day, which the tourism sector had been counting on for a huge boost, the number of new coronavirus cases in Florida had been rising at an alarming rate, exceeding 10,000 a day for the first time. Since then the situation has deteriorated, with the state recording a record 15,299 infections on July 12.

    The result is that even the tepid consumer business that had resurfaced as Florida emerged from its initial lockdown has faded.

    The account of Ms Ferenc — who is also the chair of the Tampa Bay chamber of commerce — is emblematic of the concerns gripping economists and policymakers about the state of the US economy.

  16. Association of American Physicians and Surgeons: Mask Facts

    Final Thoughts

    Surgical masks – loose fitting. They are designed to protect the patient from the doctors’ respiratory droplets. The wearer is not protected from others airborne particles
    People do not wear masks properly. Most people have the mask under the nose. The wearer does not have glasses on and the eyes are a portal of entry.
    The designer masks and scarves offer minimal protection – they give a false sense of security to both the wearer and those around the wearer.
    **Not to mention they add a perverse lightheartedness to the situation.
    If you are walking alone, no mask – avoid folks – that is common sense.
    Remember – children under 2 should not wear masks – accidental suffocation and difficulty breathing in some
    If wearing a mask makes people go out and get Vitamin D – go for it. In the 1918 flu pandemic people who went outside did better. Early reports are showing people with COVID-19 with low Vitamin D do worse than those with normal levels. Perhaps that is why shut-ins do so poorly. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058578v4

    If you are sick, stay home!

    1. Vitamin D has nothing to do with it. That isn’t how vitamins work. First of all almost all your vitamin D is absorbed through your eyes, not your skin.

      Second virtually no one in a Westernized country is vitamin deficient. More does nothing. think of it as lighting a stove. You need a spark. Whether you get that from a match or a blowtorch the stove lights.

      That is what a vitamin is, it’s a catalyst that by definition will cause a disease if difiecet and will also cure the disease when present. If it doesn’t do all three it is not a vitamin. This also explains why the vitamin alphabet skips, because things we thought were vitamins turned out not to be.

      Lastly the protests clearly showed simply being outside, whether in a crowd or by yourself, limits the virus’s ability to infect.

      1. “First of all almost all your vitamin D is absorbed through your eyes, not your skin.”

        That’s very interesting. Your post caused me to go to the net, where I found this …

        “Well, your eyes have receptors in them that trigger Vitamin D absorption when they detect sunlight. If you block the UV rays from reaching your eyes, then it is likely that you will not absorb your daily need of Vitamin D from the sun.”
        Wearing Sunglasses | Health Eagle
        http://www.healtheagle.com/wearing-sunglasses/

      2. Thank you Doctor for that ignorant diatribe against vitamins. From many non-MSM sources who can be relied upon, since they tout HCQ and zinc as early treatment, it is widely recommended to take 500-1000mg VitC and 5,000 IU VitD daily. This will really boost your immune system, and possibly keep you asymptomatic even if you do catch the WuFlu.

        You keep trusting the WHO, and Dr. Anthony Fraudi, Big Pharma’s water carriers.

        1. You keep trusting the WHO, and Dr. Anthony Fraudi, Big Pharma’s water carriers.

          I guess Trump is now a water carrier too?

        2. Dr. Anthony Fraudi Never trust an MD who looks like a ferret. I learned that in medical school.

  17. Homes that should be 200k in Sacramento are listing for 500-600k and pending days after first coming on the market. Super low inventory is to blame as well as low rates.

    1. The buyers wouldn’t be able to get a mortgage were it not for the government guarantees. Sac is a foggy, or hot, schitt-hole too. Lots of zombie criminals walking around holding-up their pants with one hand while playing with their junk.

      1. True which is why I am hoping for long term work remote situation and move further out or perhaps to cheaper state and city.

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