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We Can’t Make Homeownership Profitable And Make Housing Affordable At The Same Time

A weekend topic starting with the Oregonian. “Despite stay-at-home orders, the coronavirus pandemic, high unemployment and an unsure global economy, people are buying homes in Oregon. ‘People are willing to overpay for what they want because of lending rates,’ says Israel Hill, the office leader of John L. Scott Real Estate’s Portland Northeast office.”

From Quartz. “The wave of evictions caused by the coronavirus could swamp even the massive dislocation caused by the collapse of the US housing bubble more than a decade ago. Right now, the CFPB is considering a rule that outlines what kind of underwriting banks must do for home loans to be considered ‘qualified mortgages.’ Banks want to deal with these ‘qualified mortgages’ because they are protected from legal challenges and are easier to package as securities that can be re-sold, particularly to Government-sponsored Entities (GSEs) that purchase home loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”

“As regulators developed the original QM rule, they sought a measure to determine if borrowers could repay a debt. They settled on requiring them to pay 43% or less of their monthly income to service debts after obtaining their mortgage. But the gap between slow-growing incomes and rising housing prices left many borrowers unable to meet that standard.”

“Regulators solved this problem with something called ‘the GSE patch,’ which allowed the GSEs to set their own repayment standards for the next seven years; it expires in January 2021. If the patch expires without any action, these government agencies will have to start obeying the 43% debt-to-income (DTI) rule. That would also mean they could not make or purchase a significant share of the home loans they do now—some 16% of 2018 mortgage loans were only eligible as qualified mortgages because of the patch.”

“Broad availability matters because ‘there aren’t many leveraged investments available to low-income families,’ says Eric Stein, a senior vice president at the community lender Self Help and former Obama administration Treasury official.”

“Mehrsa Baradaran, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine is the author of the 2019 book The Color of Money, an examination of the racial wealth gap. She argues that trying to create incentives for banks to fix what is effectively a public policy problem just isn’t effective. Another issue is whether the gradual approach of generational asset building can close a yawning wealth gap, built over centuries, at any reasonable speed. Baradaran says a problem with regulating consumer loans, even predatory ones, is that people need credit, ‘and there is a demand because people don’t make enough money.'”

From Mortgage Professional America. “Democratic lawmakers led by House Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters are demanding that the Federal Housing Finance Agency set aside new capital requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac until after the COVID-19 crisis passes. The lawmakers also urged the FHFA to provide better analysis on how the proposed rule change would affect borrowers of color.”

“In a report to Congress last month, FHFA Director Mark Calabria said that Fannie and Freddie were ‘inarguably undercapitalized for their size, risk, and systemic importance,’ and that the GSEs would not be able to withstand a serious economic downturn. Calabria said the new capital rule – outlined in a 424-page rule released for public comment May 20 – would require Fannie and Freddie to become ‘safe and sound’ financial institutions in order to exit conservatorship. This means they would be required to have enough capital to enable them to weather economic downturns.”

“However, Waters, Rep. William Lacy Clay (D-Mo.) and Rep. Denny Heck (D-Wash.) said in a letter that the FHFA should prioritize economic recovery and delay the rule until after the pandemic has passed. The lawmakers said they were ‘very concerned’ that the new capital rule would slow the nation’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis by increasing borrowing costs and hampering the GSEs’ ability to provide liquidity for the housing market.”

From Bisnow on California. “Both Alicia John-Baptiste, the CEO of longtime urban policy think tank SPUR, and Eric Shaw, the director of the San Francisco Mayor’s Office of Housing and Community Development, spoke about the need to frequently examine their respective organizations’ policies and processes. Redlining, which, in general, is the denial of federal services like mortgage lending to minorities, thus denying people of color key avenues of wealth creation, has also had a major impact.”

“San Jose Department of Planning, Building and Code Enforcement Director Rosalynn Hughey said facilitating homeownership for people of color needs to be a priority of Bay Area cities like San Jose. ‘We know that that is an opportunity for people to begin to generate wealth,’ Hughey said. ‘To me, when we talk about racial equity, that is a key factor — this big divide that we have in wealth.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “It was only a couple of years ago that Vancouver’s presale condo market was so hot that you could flip a unit before it was even built, avoiding the closing costs and scooping up a tidy profit in the process. Now the condo market has cooled, however, and some of those presale owners who expected to make money are cutting their losses.”

“Vancouver realtor Ian Watt says the presale condo market is officially dead, at least compared to what it was. He recently received an e-mail from another realtor about two units at the four-tower development Lumina, in Burnaby’s Brentwood neighbourhood, close to the SkyTrain. The listing agent is looking to sell two contract assignments in the Starling tower at a discount of $50,000 each. Unit 1504 had been reduced from $788,900 to $738,900, and unit 2504 on the 25th floor had gone from $838,900 to $788,900. The tower is scheduled to complete this summer.”

“‘All we’re seeing right now are end user buyers and maybe investors buying a small studio or one-bedroom, which is the way it should be,’ Mr. Watt says. ‘The presales are so far above market value now that nobody in the local market will buy them.'”

“The discounted presale units in the e-mail are likely owned by someone who paid too much, he says. ‘They bought thinking they would flip out, and they know they can’t complete on this. If they do, it would cost them at least $50,000 in GST and closing costs, and all those other things, why not take a loss now and get rid of it?'”

“Cam McNeill, executive director of MLA Canada, says the hot market of a few years ago turned investors into speculators. Many of those flippers had originally intended to hang onto the properties, he says, but because the market was so strong, they ended up flipping, often encouraged by their realtors. He’s seeing some desperate sellers in the current market, including people who’ve lost their jobs due to the pandemic.”

“Not all developers can convert from condo to rental. Mr. McNeill says it’s a prohibitive process if the project has already been designed. And for developers who paid too much for a property, converting to a rental won’t make sense financially, Mr. Nagle says. In that case, he says, values will have to adjust. ‘If you were halfway through a luxury condo building in 2018 and it’s now not selling very well – that’s an uncomfortable moment,’ he says.”

From Yahoo Finance Canada. “The growing wealth gap between homeowners and renters is an issue that the Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation (CMHC) is striving to solve, especially with the economic impacts from COVID-19 widening the divide. For the organization, that means tackling the country’s obsession with homeownership and promoting alternatives. Even before the pandemic, Canada’s compulsion towards homeownership worsened housing affordability for young renters and kept values high for owners.”

“‘The problem is promoting home ownership for its own sake, is just inflationary to pricing,’ Evan Siddall, the CEO of the CMHC told Yahoo Finance Canada. ‘We spend a lot of time as a group trying to figure out with our legislation how we could reconcile these things and that was the core idea behind CMHC.'”

“For younger Canadians who have managed to purchase their first home in recent years, the CMHC is warning about the current risks in the housing market. In its forecasts, the organization warned that house prices could fall between nine and 18 per cent over the next 12 months, which Siddall says would put young first-time home buyers at a disadvantage.”

“‘When the value of one asset outpaces the economic production of an economy, at some point, it has to end,’ Siddall said, ‘The dream will become a nightmare.'”

“He argues that the wrong policy response would be to continue fuelling the housing market so that prices have further to fall. ‘The problem is that we’re in a game of musical chairs and when the music stops playing, it’ll be young first-time homebuyers who are holding the bag.'”

“The economic impacts of COVID-19 could widen these gaps, with the 5.5 million job losses impacting accommodation and food service sectors as well as wholesale and retail trade the most between March and April, according to Statistics Canada. An RBC Economics report in May found that these losses disproportionately affect renters.”

“Disparities like these are reasons why Eric Swanson, executive director of Generation Squeeze, is pushing for a post COVID-19 ‘return to something that was better than normal, because normal wasn’t working very well for a lot of people in Canada.’ The ‘normal’ Swanson is referring to was the run-up in housing prices and tax-free profit that prompted a rush of ‘toxic demand’, such as speculation.”

“‘We can’t make homeownership profitable and make housing affordable at the same time,’ Swanson explained, ‘I think those two things are mutually exclusive they pull in opposite directions.'”

This Post Has 97 Comments
  1. ‘The problem is promoting home ownership for its own sake, is just inflationary to pricing…When the value of one asset outpaces the economic production of an economy, at some point, it has to end…The dream will become a nightmare’

    Canadians have a more honest system than the US. We get the same old subprime loan pimping dressed up as “bridging racial divides” from Maxine.

      1. “She owns a tony mansion in predominantly white Hancock Park, several miles outside her congressional district.”

        Haha…that’s the spirit!

        1. I kind of get that. My dad worked in and served a very rough part of town. He wanted our family to live there; Mom said “no way.”

  2. ‘In a report to Congress last month, FHFA Director Mark Calabria said that Fannie and Freddie were ‘inarguably undercapitalized for their size, risk, and systemic importance,’ and that the GSEs would not be able to withstand a serious economic downturn’

    The downturn is here and the GSE’s are toast. This patch is going away and Mel Watt ain’t coming back. There’s going to be a lot of bag holders.

    1. The downturn is here and the GSE’s are toast. This patch is going away and Mel Watt ain’t coming back. There’s going to be a lot of bag holders.

      What if Swampy Joe is elected?

      1. Joe would still be stuck with Calabria. Many gov positions are a strict five-year term regardless of politics. If the appointee leaves, the new person serves out that term and then has to be renewed for a new term, similar to Congress. It’s not like a Cabinet position where they serve at the pleasure of the president.

        The head of FHFA position is a five-year term. That’s why Trump had to tolerate Smelly Mel for 3 years; Mel was serving out the term. Joe would have to tolerate Calabria.

  3. ‘People are willing to overpay for what they want because of lending rates’

    But loans are tight!

    1. ‘People are willing to overpay for what they want because of lending rates’

      I thought that’s what appraisers were for, to make sure the asset value justified the loan amount. How are debt junkies able to set the price of the house irrespective of an appraiser? Oh, that’s right, appraisers are just hit the numbers hacks…

      1. The appraisal concept kind of goes out the window when real lending rates dip below the zero bound.

  4. ‘People are willing to overpay for what they want because of lending rates,’ says Israel Hill, the office leader of John L. Scott Real Estate’s Portland Northeast office.”

    Israel Hill is a liar. Speculators are willing to overpay because with the Fed pushing its money printing into hyperdrive, they anticipate that all asset bubbles, including housing, will continue to inflate.

  5. ‘Another issue is whether the gradual approach of generational asset building can close a yawning wealth gap, built over centuries, at any reasonable speed. Baradaran says a problem with regulating consumer loans, even predatory ones, is that people need credit, ‘and there is a demand because people don’t make enough money’

    You are an idiot Mehrsa.

    1. You are an idiot Mehrsa.

      Yes, an absolutely blithering fawking idiot. Debt is not wealth, and you cannot replace income with debt.

  6. “Broad availability matters because ‘there aren’t many leveraged investments available to low-income families,’ says Eric Stein, a senior vice president at the community lender Self Help and former Obama administration Treasury official.”

    These Democrat patronage and graft rackets never sleep, do they. Always coming up with “creative” solutions to “help” low-income families that have one common denominator: taxpayer money dumped down black holes of fraud and unaccountability, while the lot of the “low income” isn’t improved one iota.

    1. Shacks are highly illiquid in a pinch. We’re in a pinch. Add high leverage and you get crater.

    1. I guess the writers didn’t get the memo about Oxide’s proposed stealth bailout of the rental sector, including bailout loan forgiveness?

    1. In fairness to their suggestion, who wants to earn interest Fed-engineered negative real rates of return on interest bearing investments, when you can safely invest in stocks knowing that the stock market always goes up?

      1. true that is why I buy blue chip dividend stocks in the market crashes. Better rate of return than crappy 0.1% interest bank savings and check accounts and measly 1% CD and money market accounts.

  7. ‘We can’t make homeownership profitable and make housing affordable at the same time’

    If you think about it, this is a false choice. Sure you can cook up a situation where shacks are profitable – for a while. Then:

    ‘When the value of one asset outpaces the economic production of an economy, at some point, it has to end’

    The whole idea of shacks being a “wealth engine” is a fantasy. Eventually you have to sell, and the new owner has to pay off the huge loan, expecting another family to eventually take out an even greater loan, etc. To believe this works is basically saying trees grow to the sky, which they obviously don’t.

    ‘They bought thinking they would flip out, and they know they can’t complete on this. If they do, it would cost them at least $50,000 in GST and closing costs, and all those other things, why not take a loss now and get rid of it?’

    1. If you think about it, this is a false choice. Sure you can cook up a situation where shacks are profitable – for a while. Then:

      ‘When the value of one asset outpaces the economic production of an economy, at some point, it has to end’

      The FED and .gov succeeded in ginning house prices back up into the stratosphere. We’ve now arrived at “now what?” They’re way, way, WAY too high for most people.

    2. ‘When the value of one asset outpaces the economic production of an economy, at some point, it has to end’

      Herbert Stein’s law continues to dog those who are tasked with keeping the Housing Bubble inflated:

      If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.

    1. Some clear comments on COVID-19, for a change. He didn’t give enough emphasis to the fact that this virus is not like other viruses which have swept through the human population. That means: none knows how the pandemic / virus will change over time. The experts don’t know. He doesn’t know. We don’t know.

      1. This comes as no surprise. We’ve been living with measles for decades too. And yeah, it’s not like any other virus because there’s a high probability that it’s man-made.

        One other way that it’s not like any other virus: treatments seem to WORK on it. For most other viruses, there are no direct treatments, just supportive care to relieve symptoms and help fight it off. The best part is that this virus is immune to high-price drugs, but it readily falls over and dies for cheap drugs.

  8. Wow … Common sense from a (cdn) federal housing agency head. If only others in policy positions will listen. Lets hope that everyone is honest on the Oct banking stress test … Especially for the 2 GSIfi’s -Royal Bank and TD Bank
    —–

    “He argues that the wrong policy response would be to continue fuelling the housing market so that prices have further to fall. ‘The problem is that we’re in a game of musical chairs and when the music stops playing, it’ll be young first-time homebuyers who are holding the bag.’”

    1. ‘The problem is that we’re in a game of musical chairs and when the music stops playing, it’ll be young first-time homebuyers who are holding the bag.’

      Isn’t turning young American families into first-time homebuyers and soon-to-be bagholders a primary part of the Democratic party platform?

      1. The Republicans in charge of Utah are perfectly happy to march young people into debt bondage with expensive mortgages well beyond local wages. Not sure if that’s a national platform though.

        1. “The Republicans in charge of Utah are perfectly happy to march young people into debt bondage with expensive mortgages well beyond local wages. ”

          Yep. A thing of beauty.

  9. “We Can’t Make Homeownership Profitable…”

    How did this creep in as a policy objective? Any idiot can see that trying to make home prices increase in perpetuity at a higher rate than inflation will not mesh well with a goal of making home prices affordable.

    1. Trying to make homeownership profitable forever is analogous to the infamous perpetual motion machine scams. A plausible idea that violates the laws of thermodynamics can still fool a large number of weak-minded or uneducated chumps.

  10. The globalists are funding radical-left groups to drive mom & pop landlords out of business so the oligarchs can pick up their rental properties for a song. You will never, ever see far-left globalist minions like StompSlumlords protesting mega-slumlords like BlackRock that use their FedBux to corner the market on distressed housing.

    https://twitter.com/StompSlumlords?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1289302033304915969%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Frent-moratorium-expires-landlord-tenant-battles-begin

    1. Make sure to jump onto their bandwagon against BlackRock and the others. They might not be aware of it.
      Also, corporate landlords as well.

  11. US citizens – you’ve been sold a bill of goods. A globalist’s panacea:

    There were 12 people in three bedrooms, with a bathroom whose door frequently required a knock and a kitchen where dinnertime shifts extended from 5 p.m. well into the evening.

    Karla Lorenzo, a Guatemalan immigrant who cleaned houses in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, lived in the big room along the driveway. Big is a relative term when a room has five people in it. She and her partner, Abel, slept in a queen-size bed along the wall. There was a crib for the baby at the foot, with the older children’s bunk bed next to that. The other housemates had similar layouts.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/12-people-3-bedroom-house-153750255.html

  12. I got into a chat with a Utah banker on the sidelines of a kid’s soccer game circa Fall 2006. His son is a friend of our family and was a rival coach in the league for which I used to be a coach. They are also distant cousins on my wife’s side of the family.

    Anyway, I briefly laid out the reasons why I thought a real estate crash was imminent. He was apparently a graduate of the “nobody could have seen it coming” school of banking. I may as well have been speaking Martian to him, as my explanation of the housing situation clearly didn’t resonate with him.

    1. I may as well have been speaking Martian to him, as my explanation of the housing situation clearly didn’t resonate with him.

      It doesn’t resonate with a lot of people, because they’re counting on their shack to fund their retirement. If it resonated, they would panic. Just like how very few seem to be fazed by the serial stimulus packages and their multi trillion dollar price tags. It won’t resonate until major inflation kicks in, and by then it will be too late.

  13. We haven’t run out of stock market worriers just yet, despite the Fed’s and other central bankers’ implicit backstop.

    Got hand lotion?

    1. The Tell
      The stock market could be facing ‘multiple decades’ of ‘deleterious’ economic after-effects, analyst warns
      Published: Aug. 2, 2020 at 6:49 p.m. ET
      By Shawn Langlois
      Will a vaccine keep this market going strong? Bloomberg News/Landov

      The stock market’s ability to shrug off the economic destruction and gloomy coronavirus headlines continues to enrich emboldened bulls and baffle even some of the savviest Wall Street pros.

      A big dose of reality, however, looms large, if Andrew Lapthorne, the global head of quantitative research at Societe Generale, has it right with his recent outlook.

      “With questions on the effectiveness and wide availability of vaccines remaining, as well as the potential impacts of the pandemic’s damage to the economy, there may be more downside risk from markets overshooting,” Lapthorne wrote in a note to clients cited by Business Insider on Sunday.

    2. The FED has the DOW ticker right in front of them every moment the markets are open. The slightest hint of a downturn brings billions. They have pledge the dollar and the entire future of the United States as collateral to stem any losses.

      1. Seems like another flavor of companies going into debt to buy their own stock shares, in order to artificially prop up the price.

        Makes you wonder if the whole sham price manipulation scheme is at risk of eventually collapsing, just like every other bubble in history that preceded it.

        1. It will probably all collapse at some point, but perhaps after I’m dead. Meanwhile, I have never, and I mean ever, seen so many people out and about. This is like 2005 on steroids right now, and the amount of new trucks/boats/RVs is mind blowing.

          1. @rip, yeah lots of people buying expensive cars and toys. I keep same old car for 10 years all paid no debt. Waiting to see if the northern California market in Sacramento and Folsom changes after November. Been rough as bay area locusts invaded here with COVID work from home high income tech jobs make it brutal for us on lower income to buy a starter house with multiple cash offers over asking price.

        2. “Makes you wonder if the whole sham price manipulation scheme is at risk of eventually collapsing, just like every other bubble in history that preceded it.”

          Maybe it’s different this time?

  14. Got cockroaches?

    HSBC’s profits slump 65% amid coronavirus downturn
    August 2, 2020, 10:37 PM
    A Chinese national flag flies in front of HSBC headquarters in Hong Kong.

    HSBC’s profits for the first half of this year have plunged 65% as it battles the coronavirus downturn.

    The UK’s biggest bank posted pre-tax profits of $4.3bn (£3.3bn), compared to $12.4bn for the same period last year.

    The fall was much larger than analysts had forecast as HSBC was hit by loans turning bad and interest rates remaining low.

    While HSBC is headquartered in London, more than half of its profits come from the Asian financial hub of Hong Kong.

    The bank is dealing with a number of challenges, not just the financial downturn caused by the coronavirus.

    It is currently embroiled in a political battle over its support of China’s national security law in Hong Kong while pushing ahead with a major restructuring of its global banking operations.

    “We will face any political challenges that arise with a focus on the long-term needs of our customers and the best interests of our investors,” HSBC’s group chief chief executive Noel Quinn said on Monday.

    “Current tensions between China and the US inevitably create challenging situations for an organisation with HSBC’s footprint. However, the need for a bank capable of bridging the economies of east and west is acute, and we are well placed to fulfil this role.”

    Bad loans

    HSBC said it has set aside $8bn to $13bn this year for bad loans as it expects more people and businesses to default on their repayments. This is higher than previously budgeted for, taking into account the effects of the economic downturn.

      1. And if you do business in mainland China as I tried to do in 2016 incorporating in HK and using HSBC as your bank has some big advantages. There is no easier legal way to move money between the US and China because both sides trust that one particular place and bank…at least back then.

  15. Is baseball, and its lucrative megamillion dollar contracts, done until after the U.S. COVID-19 outbreak is under control?

    1. Short answer: probably. Our attention spans are too short to tolerate the lazy-hazy summer-day pace of baseball. And it’s not just because of internet. Football was killing baseball was dying as early as the late 70s, as eloquently described by George Carlin. The Ken Burns documentary on baseball even covered this, in a segment which edited 1970s film footage of baseball compared to football.

      1. It’s not so much about audience attention spans as player behaviors such as spitting, adjusting balls with hand, tossing the ball from one player to another, making physical contact with each other, and hanging out at bars for a beer after practice or games, all of which are very conducive to spreading the virus. If anyone were interested to figure out how COVID-19 spreads, baseball teams could offer a useful case study, similar to cruise ships.

        1. “It’s not so much about audience attention spans as player behaviors such as spitting…”

          One afternoon at CalPoly, SLO following a lab session, I stopped at a crosswalk to let a group of baseball players cross the street from their sports park. While walking, one guy reached-up placing a thumb against his nostril such that he could expel a large rope of mucus from the other…yuck! WTF?

          1. Old farmer trick for clearing things out from way back…perhaps the average baseball player is a little more redneck than the average US population. Chewing tobacco usage levels would support that…

          2. It’s a great technique; highly recommended by me and other farmers. Not sure where I heard the term, but I’ve always called it the “Okie blow”
            When you’re out driving tractor and it’s dusty – especially if you have allergies – nothing else will do. It’s not for mixed company, though.

      1. US & World News
        State court allows Newsom’s $75 million coronavirus aid for undocumented immigrants
        Bob Egelko May 6, 2020 Updated: May 6, 2020 8:07 p.m.
        In this photo taken Tuesday April 14, 2020, Gov. Gavin Newsom discusses an outline for what it will take to lift coronavirus restrictions during a news conference at the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services in Rancho Cordova, Calif. California lawmakers are launching hearings on Thursday to gather more details on Newsom’s spending during the pandemic and the $1 billion contract he entered for protective masks.
        AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

        The state Supreme Court on Wednesday rejected a challenge by conservatives to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s allocation of $75 million in state funds to undocumented immigrants affected by the coronavirus pandemic and ineligible for federal aid.

        Plaintiffs represented by attorney Harmeet Dhillon, a Republican national committeewoman and founder of the nonprofit Center for American Liberty, sued Newsom on April 22 over his order directing funds to nonprofits for distribution to as many as 150,000 undocumented residents.

        1. “The state Supreme Court on Wednesday rejected a challenge by conservatives to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s allocation of $75 million in state funds to undocumented immigrants affected by the coronavirus pandemic and ineligible for federal aid.”

          Big Ag in California’s central valley has an underground railroad of workers from Mexico to maintain the fields and pick the harvest. In addition, there are “mall-like” walk-in health care facilities that cater to these workers. It’s that way because ‘Mericans feel that farm work is beneath them, so they sit at home on welfare watching cheap drama like the “love connection” while grazing on buckets of KFC chicken and 2-liter bottles of soda pop.

          1. Seems like COVID-19 plus a large itinerant labor force of undocumented aliens could create a perfect storm in California agriculture.

          2. Seems like COVID-19 plus a large itinerant labor force of undocumented aliens could create a perfect storm in California agriculture.

            Maybe once the dying is over it’ll be the first herd immunity population. If herd immunity is possible with this one. Otherwise it’ll be the first repeatedly decimated population.

    1. For all the sordid details about debt enslavement of third world countries (and now developed countries), check out “New Confessions of an Economic Hit Man” by John Perkins.

      1. And Shock Doctrine. And Adults in the Room. They’re bringing it to us now…before we just got the benefits of it. Now only a few will get the benefits. The rest go under the boot. We’re being farmed.

  16. If the FHFA rule changes mortgages such that 16% of Fannie/Freddie loans no longer exist this sucker could go down hard in 2021.

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