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An Extension Of What Happened In 2008 And 2009

A report from Geekwire. “‘We’re running naked through the jungle with a Bowie knife clenched between our teeth, which is the way Redfin was born to be,’ CEO Glenn Kelman told analysts. ‘We’re omnivorous. We’re going to try to take share on the big markets and in the small markets. We’re hiring everywhere. It’s like those bears you see in Yellowstone Park. They eat the garbage, the blueberries, they eat everything.'”

“Redfin also continues building out its RedfinNow home-buying business that resumed last month after a pause due to the pandemic. RedfinNow brought in $72.1 million in revenue last quarter, up 81%, with a loss of $1.1 million.”

The Wall Street Journal on Florida. “Billionaire hedge-fund manager Cliff Asness has sold his Miami Beach penthouse for $22 million, a significant loss from the $26 million he paid for it just two years ago, according to a person familiar with the deal. Mr. Asness had listed the beachfront unit for sale late last year asking $29.5 million. In the second quarter, the number of closed luxury condo sales in Miami Beach dropped more than 50% year over year, according to a report by Douglas Elliman.”

“The Miami market is facing an oversupply of product, climate change fears and cooling demand from foreign buyers, particularly from South America. ‘Sellers have to slash prices to get deals done,’ said Peter Zalewski, a principal with Miami real estate consulting firm Condo Vultures.”

From Socket Site in California. “Having hit a 10-year seasonal high last week, the number of homes on the market in San Francisco, net of new sales and contract activity, has ticked up another 3 percent to 1,470, representing 150 percent more homes on the market than at the same last year (580) and equaling the recession-era inventory levels which were driving the market in early August of 2008 and 2009.”

The Orange County Register in California. “Almost 10 years of sustained rent hikes came to an end in Los Angeles and Orange counties during the spring, thanks in part to the coronavirus pandemic and to new construction. An uptick in vacancy rates is one reason rent is softening, experts and industry representatives say. The drop in Los Angeles County is typical of what landlords are seeing in big coastal markets like New York and San Francisco, said Greg Willett, chief economist for RealPage. Willett said about 7,600 renter households moved out of their apartments in L.A. and Orange counties this past spring.”

“‘We know individuals are leaving their apartments,’ added Fred Sutton, the L.A. regional spokesman for the California Apartment Association, a landlord trade group. ‘The prices are not going up because they’re not filling the units.'”

“Rent growth already started shrinking five years ago. ‘We were in late innings, or even extra innings, of the real estate cycle,’ said Nicholas Dunlap, a senior VP at Irvine-based housing provider Avanath Capital Management. RealPage figures show nearly 16,000 new apartments were completed in the four-county region this past spring — 10,000 of them in L.A. County alone. Almost 38,000 more are under construction, more than 31,000 of them in L.A. County. Since new apartments tend to have higher rents, many high-end complexes started offering concessions, like move-in specials, to lure more tenants.”

From CNBC. “America’s glitziest and most expensive retail districts are losing tenants, and rents are in a free fall. The pressures from the Covid-19 crisis will likely have a lasting impact on shopping streets such as Michigan Avenue — better-known as the ‘Magnificent Mile’ — in Chicago, the Las Vegas Strip, and Rodeo Drive in Los Angeles, to name a few. It is already beginning to play out with the changes taking place throughout the New York City retail scene, serving as a leading indicator of what’s to come in other major metros, real estate analysts predict.”

“Some of these changes were already shaping up before the Covid-19 crisis. Rents on Prince Street in the SoHo neighborhood saw the biggest declines, according to CBRE, tumbling 37.5% year-over-year to $437 per square foot from $699 per square foot — and falling below $500 for the first time since 2014. ‘In the U.S., certainly you will see that what was once perceived as a luxury block in any major city is no longer exclusively luxury,’ said Naveen Jaggi, the president of commercial real estate services firm JLL’s Retail Advisory team. ‘We will see an extension of what happened in 2008 and 2009, which left American consumers shifting toward value more aggressively.'”

From Loop North News in Illinois. “With tens of thousands of people following state and city guidelines to stay at home, downtown Chicago hotels are posting soaring vacancies and managers are slashing room rates. And, the once-booming Airbnb market is sputtering in the Windy City. One top Chicago Airbnb manager revealed that the city’s once-thriving business is off 30 to 50 percent, and thousands of future reservations have been canceled.”

“While some luxury downtown hotels are reducing room rates from the $300-per-night range to as little as $69 per night, apartment landlords who formerly hosted swank, completely furnished Airbnb units are quickly redrafting 2020 marketing plans with a shift to leasing apartments on six-month and one-year standard lease.”

The Tribune Democrat. “For much of the year, State College and its nearly 42,000 residents rank as Pennsylvania’s 17th largest city by population. The increase comes largely from Penn State football, which drew an average of 105,678 fans to Beaver Stadium in 2019. Hotels, restaurants, retail establishments and other area businesses rely on football weekends to support their bottom lines. As such, a modified or perhaps even canceled 2020 football season will have a sweeping financial impact on the region.”

“The Big Ten Conference announced July 9 the cancellation of all non-conference games for its 14 member institutions. The move leaves Penn State with two fewer home games for 2020. Jeff Harman has owned The Stevens Motel for 57 years. Harman will lose the income that would have been generated from the previously scheduled Kent State (Sept. 5) and San Jose State (Sept. 19) games.”

“Full cancellation of the football season will be even more debilitating. Guests of The Stevens Motel have already booked all rooms for the 2020 season. ‘It will eliminate 100% of those rentals,’ Harman said. ‘I lose everything. It is a 100% total loss as far as the football game goes.'”

“In 2019 alone, State College property owners brought in $2.2 million by renting their homes out to visiting fans through the popular Airbnb vacation rental service. Liam Goble owns five single-family homes in State College he rents out during the football season to fans. He’s rented on Airbnb for four years. ‘By this time last year, I was almost fully booked up for the football season,’ Goble said. ‘I might have one game filled up right now. It is dead.'”

“For some in the State College Airbnb community, they’ve already unlisted their properties for short-term stay during the football season and have transitioned to long-term rentals. ‘I’m in touch with a bunch of hosts locally, and I know a lot of people are pulling their properties off Airbnb, trying to get long-term renters in,’ Goble said. ‘Just with the uncertainty across everything that’s going on, they just want to lock in somebody in their rentals, so there are a lot people pulling – from what I hear, the people I talk to – their Airbnbs and just making them more traditional rentals.'”

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This Post Has 138 Comments

  1. ‘Rent growth already started shrinking five years ago’

    Ahem…

    ‘We were in late innings, or even extra innings, of the real estate cycle’…nearly 16,000 new apartments were completed in the four-county region this past spring — 10,000 of them in L.A. County alone. Almost 38,000 more are under construction, more than 31,000 of them in L.A. County’

    QE is ultimately deflationary.

  2. ‘We’re hiring everywhere. It’s like those bears you see in Yellowstone Park. They eat the garbage, the blueberries, they eat everything’

    Sounds like somebody has embraced the wework breakfast tequila management style.

    ‘Redfin also continues building out its RedfinNow home-buying business that resumed last month after a pause due to the pandemic. RedfinNow brought in $72.1 million in revenue last quarter, up 81%, with a loss of $1.1 million’

    They and other big flippers continue to lose money quarter after quarter. This is why I question these posters who show up and say, “it’s red hot where I live, multiple offers over asking for years!”

    And redfin couldn’t dip into that? Or that other big fat flipping loser zillow? This is just common sense.

    1. What’s going to happen to the poor garbage eating bears at Redfin when they find out they got stucco with boatloads of houses that don’t pencil out at the prices they paid?

    2. I don’t know if I qualify as a poster stating it’s crazy here, as I really don’t want it to be crazy here. I am looking around wondering What the hell? and How is this going to work? I was typing into Realtor.com just as the radio news report sings out about the 2011 rent prices in NYC. The radio network jocks are thrilled for the reset or whatever the proper term applies. Up pops a place I thought (and still think) was overpriced to begin with within a 15 minute walk of where I exist, renting…https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/406-Blaine-Lakeshore-Dr_Kalispell_MT_59901_M86985-26023?view=qv A “New” listing, up $1,000,000 since its last listing. At least there is acreage with this one but this is what seems to be the current real estate virus of the moment. Mostly I’ve been seeing homes repriced by $100,000 here and $200,000 there with a lot of plucking going on. What places we have gone to look at, the agents are dumbfounded that we are locals looking. Things were yuck as to prices versus actual value at the start of the year, did the Covid lull and then exploded with Phase 1 re-opening. I would be happy to sit back and just call it stupid, which it is- it doesn’t make any sense but I do have to make moving plans so it has an irritating impact. If anyone trips across a working crystal ball as to when this carousel starts flinging the kiddies off the ride that would be useful.

      2. Lots of people have bought into the trope that houses in nice suburbs and the country are somehow immune to COVID fallout and might actually increase in price as people flea cities.

        1. nice suburbs and the country are somehow immune to COVID fallout

          Not covid. But immune to that which must not be said in polite company.

      3. this carousel starts flinging the kiddies off the ride

        $3.5M vs $500K three years ago. Somebody has a sense of humor, if not of reality.

  3. ‘In the U.S., certainly you will see that what was once perceived as a luxury block in any major city is no longer exclusively luxury’

    The article goes on to say it’s tennis shoe companies moving in, etc. Vibrancy!

  4. ‘Some of these changes were already shaping up before the Covid-19 crisis’

    Do say…

    ‘Rents on Prince Street in the SoHo neighborhood saw the biggest declines, according to CBRE, tumbling 37.5% year-over-year to $437 per square foot from $699 per square foot — and falling below $500 for the first time since 2014’

    Commercial rents in NYC have been falling since 2018. How do those 5% cap rates look now?

    ‘representing 150 percent more homes on the market than at the same last year (580) and equaling the recession-era inventory levels which were driving the market in early August of 2008 and 2009’

    Wa happened to my shortage?

    1. The only people who compare current rents with 2014 and later are those who bought in 2014 or later.

      Want to know what things are worth (rent, sales price)? Go back to the mid-1990s, before the federal guarantee of inflated asset values and the “global savings glut,” and adjust upward by about 80 percent for inflation. Or by less than that, given U.S. millennials are paid 25 percent less than Baby Boomers had been at the same point in their lives.

      Perhaps you adjust upward a little in cities based on improved conditions, and downward in suburbs based on increased age. But only a little — the suburban prices are too high, and the city price premium in some metros is excessive.

  5. ‘In 2019 alone, State College property owners brought in $2.2 million by renting their homes out to visiting fans through the popular Airbnb vacation rental service…‘I might have one game filled up right now. It is dead’

    There’s a lot of money going poof all around the planet, every day.

  6. ‘In the second quarter, the number of closed luxury condo sales in Miami Beach dropped more than 50% year over year, according to a report by Douglas Elliman. The Miami market is facing an oversupply of product, climate change fears and cooling demand from foreign buyers, particularly from South America. ‘Sellers have to slash prices to get deals done’

    Miami Beach peaked and headed down in 2015.

    1. Both Jeremiah Babe and Gregory Mannarino are putting out excellent daily videos that destroy The Narrative being propagated by the corporate media. It’s a matter of time before the oligarchy deplatforms all truth-tellers, but I’m enjoying their segments while I still can.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPxzS01biWA

  10. Climate change fears…

    Didn’t stop obama buying a $16 million beachfront house.

    If even he doesn’t believe it…why should we?

    ““The Miami market is facing an oversupply of product, climate change fears and cooling demand from foreign buyers,”

    1. Typical, he could have spent the money educating minority kids in Chicago and keep them off the school to prison pipeline, but nope

    1. Somebody flipped a switch around April 1 that led to a moon shot off the bottom of the crater.

    3. By the way, pull up the 2 year chart and you will see that it’s a parabolic spike in prices, never before seen. This is entirely – 100% – due to the FED and their reckless monetary policies. They are blowing bubble everywhere and they know it. It’s intentional. When pressed on the issue they “see non bubbles,” and deny that they have anything to do with it. They’re criminals. They should be facing economic terrorism charges, for their rackets are destroying lives and the country as a whole.

      2. Silver just had its best month since 1979, shooting up 35% in July. Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer, and its mines are being relentlessly extorted by cartels, leading to a rapid drop in production. But the biggest factor, besides falling mine production, is that even the dullest of the sheeple are starting to understand that the Fed is propelling us down the road to Weimar 2.0 with its deranged money-printing, and are buying up physical silver while it can still be had.

        1. 1979 was near the end of a period of extraordinarily high U.S. inflation. Could the recent spike in PM and crypto prices be a harbinger of a return to soaring prices?

          1. 1979 was near the end

            Perhaps 1979 was near the beginning of an extraordinary period of inflation (credit expansion). We might be at the other end.

        1. Just look at the news Ben posts every day. Lumber futures should be crashing based upon fundamentals. The future of homebuilding looks extremely bleak. Yet futures are rocketing to record levels.

          1. Many mills shut down. Read earlier this year about mills in Canada closing because of US tariffs. Imagine the logistics of restarting a logging/sawmill/kiln operation. And if you’re not already bankrupt, would you borrow a fortune to do so today? This “closed due to Covid” experiment has splintered many things that are slowly seeing the light of day.

  12. ‘Two more retail stalwarts have bitten the dust. Lord & Taylor — the oldest U.S. department store founded in 1826 — filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Sunday after being crippled by COVID-19 store closures. The company was purchased for $100 million from Hudson’s Bay by fashion startup Le Tote in 2019. Le Tote also filed for Chapter 11. Lord & Taylor has 38 stores to its name.’

    ‘Not to be outdone, Men’s Wearhouse owned Tailored Brands also filed for Chapter 11 on Sunday. The company said it had received $500 million in debtor-in-possession financing from existing lenders. It was just several weeks ago when Tailored Brands said it would close 500 of its 1,500 stores and cut 20% of its workforce.’

    ‘The retail deaths have piled up this summer.’

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-scary-number-of-retail-companies-are-facing-bankruptcy-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic-180604964.html

    2. ‘Some retail landlords are starting to chop rents to help tenants survive as the coronavirus pandemic enters its fifth month and a flood of retailers close stores and seek creditor protection. The Retail Council of Canada estimates that one in five stores are now vacant across all types of malls, plazas and big-box centres. A growing number of brands – including Aldo, Ann Taylor, Reitmans, DavidsTea and Mendocino – have announced plans to shutter hundreds of locations.’

      ‘Downtown Vancouver and Toronto, once hubs of activity with a giant office work force, are now mostly vacant. Street retailers in their cores that were once teeming with activity are much quieter. “It’s pretty tough because there isn’t the volume of people coming downtown,” said Scott Lee, JLL’s executive vice-president of retail for Western Canada. “The domino effect is that people are not eating out much, not grabbing as much coffee and not shopping as much in general,” he said.’

      https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-as-hundreds-of-stores-shut-down-retail-landlords-cut-rents-in-bid-to/

    3. Not to be outdone, Men’s Wearhouse owned Tailored Brands also filed for Chapter 11 on Sunday.

      How many men still own or wear a proper business suit?

      A few years a ago I attended a funeral at a large Denver funeral home. There were other funerals and viewings going on, and I noticed that at the other funerals not a single man was wearing a suit, not a single one. The “dressed up:” men were wearing office casual (chinos and a polo shirt), the others were wearing jeans or even shorts.

      1. Musicians and other entertainment industry workers tended to wear suits, back in the day when live performances were a thing.

      2. A few years a ago I attended a funeral at a large Denver funeral home. At my age I have so many funerals to attend, it might be worth it to buy a properly fitting suit to match the numerous occasions (now) where it might be appropriate. My real “business suit” back in the day was scrubs.

  14. Oh don’t worry, Blackstone Investment has $7T to buy all the real estate properties which is what happened last time.

    1. Don’t know if there will ever be another chance for ordinary Americans to buy a home at an affordable price, given all the well-funded Wall Street vultures trying to time the bottom and buy the dip with trillions of Powell bux in order to drive prices back up and profit.

        2. In my area, it depends on where you are, but in my area, both rent and mortgage for a 3/2 SFH is around $2000, at today’s prices. Rent for a one-bedroom is ~$1000-1500, highly dependent on transit and Grade A/B.

  15. The pressures from the Covid-19 crisis will likely have a lasting impact on shopping streets such as Michigan Avenue — better-known as the ‘Magnificent Mile’ — in Chicago, the Las Vegas Strip, and Rodeo Drive in Los Angeles, to name a few.

    The MSM is fixated on COVID, when the prospect of a Democrat (Bolshevik) electoral victory is looming much larger in the minds of the honest portion of the population. In the last six months, .308 ammo has gone from $.84 to $1.15 a round – if you can find any at all. A case of 5.56mm for AR-15s has gone from ~$300 to $600 at my local Sportsmans Warehouse – on the rare occasions when it’s in stock. Granted, metals like lead, copper, and brass have all been impacted by COVID hitting mining operations, as well as the Fed’s debasement of the dollar. Still, the kulaks – those who are going to be targeted for “redistribution of the wealth” by the Democrats and their BLM/Antifa street enforcers – are not about to bend a knee to the collectivists and their globalist diktats. That societal polarization is going to have a much more dramatic impact on real estate and the economy than COVID, but the corporate media can’t admit that battle lines are being drawn between Les Deplorables and the collectivist control freaks who intend to help themselves to their sh!t.

    2. Magnificent Miles were dying anyway along with the malls and for the same reasons.
      1. Anyone who really wants a Hermes scarf they can order it online.
      2. We’ve had business casual for years. I don’t know if anyone’s been keeping track, but most women can get by with Wal-Mart/Target clothing at most offices. Few people need a Hermes scarf.
      3. LLs have been raising rents to drive out even high-end retail, and they can borrow money to keep the rent high. Ben has been reporting on empty storefronts in NYC for at least a year.
      4. COVID: Magnificent Miles tend to attract rioters and looters. It’s the only way they know to rebel against the rich.
      5. COVID: We’re all w@H and no partying. No one needs a Hermes scarf.

      1. Was in Chicago in mid December for a wedding. Nice weather and stayed one block off the Magnificent Mile. It was a pleasant walk in the evening. Plenty of Christmas shoppers. Saw a Santa drive by in an older Ferrari. A few months later and it’s a looting ground.

    3. Still, the kulaks – those who are going to be targeted for “redistribution of the wealth” by the Democrats and their BLM/Antifa street enforcers – are not about to bend a knee to the collectivists and their globalist diktats.

      I think everyone including the commies know that most people out in the deplorable country don’t really have anything worth taking. But because the focus is more on them than the masters of the universe it feels like it’s more about bending the knee than paying up. But it’s the population least likely to go along with that…which could be epic. Except the two groups may never do much more than scream at each other long distance if they have no interest in each other’s territory. There are only a few places where there is much mixing of the groups.

        1. They have land and water.

          By the time antifa wants that I think they’ll be too weak to fight.

  16. “‘We’re running naked through the jungle with a Bowie knife clenched between our teeth, which is the way Redfin was born to be,’ CEO Glenn Kelman told analysts.

    How you talk, Soy Boy.

    2. Anyone who runs through a forest with a Bowie knife between their teeth would be cut up like the Joker. They might not be able to speak.

      1. It’s false bravado, and it’s everywhere. These cucks would soil themselves if faced with any real danger. A lot of them would probably give up their wives and girlfriends in a PeeWee Herman voice in order to try to save their cowardly selves.

        1. Never follow a leader who hasn’t slept out on the ground 7 nights in a row in subzero weather, naked, without a sleeping bag or a tent.

          2. I’ve done each of those things separately. But if you put them all together (and if subzero is in F) mostly you just end up with dead people.

          3. Show me a man who slept on the ground, naked, in subzero weather for even a single night, and I will show you a dead body.

    1. WHAT IS THE FED?

      The Federal Reserve, “the Fed”, is the central bank of the United States of America that was created in 1913 by Congress. It is a banking cartel that has a government-granted monopoly on the creation of money and credit. The Fed literally loans “money” (Federal Reserve Notes) into existence. Federal Reserve Notes are paper promises backed by nothing of intrinsic value and they are only functioning as money because the government forces them on the public through legal tender laws. Federal Reserve Notes are referred to as dollars but are not. The definition of a dollar is a weight of silver (371 grains). To put it simply, the Fed is a group of banks running a national criminal counterfeiting racket with the protection of the government.

      http://endthefed.org

  18. “Billionaire hedge-fund manager Cliff Asness has sold his Miami Beach penthouse for $22 million, a significant loss from the $26 million he paid for it just two years ago, according to a person familiar with the deal.

    As a hedgie, Cliff had access to unlimited Yellen Bux. A $4 million loss is a rounding error to the financial oligarchy.

    1. I’d do it for access to my workplace, entertainment venues, or air travel. Not worried about Big Brother using my blood test results for nefarious purposes.

    2. Why would they need to do blood screening? They already have — or are close to — 10-minute paper saliva tests. It’s not very sensitive — it won’t detect if you have only a little virus. However, if *will* detect if you have enough virus to be infections. For day-to-day operations, that’s all you need.

          1. And that’s assigning some credibility to the death numbers, which we know are grotesquely inflated.

          2. I can’t recall a flu outbreak that continued ramping up right through the summer with 150,000+ U.S. deaths over the course of five months, can you?

          3. recall a flu outbreak

            The fast approaching flu season is going to be quite the hair-on-fire spectacle.

          4. …unless you are a medical worker on the front lines, in which case it will merely be the worst crisis of your career that you hope to physically and mentally survive.

        2. Don’t get excited, Bear. Only the virologists are talking about it on MedCram. Do you honestly think any government is going to get this right? 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

          I’m just going to stay home and not buy anything except food and pm until the virus mutates to something less virulent. Because it’s obvious we as race are incapable of anything.

          2. Is it going away on its own?

            The Financial Times
            Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
            Coronavirus pandemic
            Coronavirus surge slows in US south and west
            Even as spike in sunbelt eases, officials worry pandemic has ‘widespread’ grip on the country
            Some Florida testing sites were shuttered over the weekend as the state braced for impact from a tropical storm
            © AFP via Getty Images
            Peter Wells and Matthew Rocco in New York 3 hours ago

            New coronavirus cases in US hotspots waned on Monday, although the encouraging signs have not allayed fears that the disease is gaining a foothold in other parts of the country.

            Florida — one of the populous US states in the sunbelt region where the virus has surged in recent weeks — reported fewer than 5,000 infections on Monday, the lowest increase since June, and 73 fatalities. The state had closed some of its testing sites at the weekend as Isaias, the tropical storm, moved up its coast.

            Other states in the south and west where the disease had been surging earlier this summer continued to show signs of slowing. California, which became the first state to register more than 500,000 cases, reported 5,739 infections on Monday, the smallest increase since early July. Texas had 5,839 cases in the past 24 hours.

            Arizona registered slightly more than 1,000 cases, the lowest since late June. Georgia counted the least new cases of coronavirus in nearly a month at 2,258.

            The US as a whole on Monday reported fewer than 50,000 coronavirus cases for the second day running, with a further 49,562 infections over the prior 24 hours, according to Covid Tracking Project. Fatalities rose by 519, about half the levels seen over the past fortnight.
            …

        1. What is “accuracy,” blue?

          The month-old Abbot tests were “50% accurate,” that is, they missed 50% of the infected people. But the 50% they missed had low levels of virus. IIUC, the tests were 100% accurate at picking up higher levels of virus. That’s not inaccuracy, that’s just a detection limit. And evidently you need a lot of virus to spread it. Since we’re only screening whether the virus will spread and not whether you have it at all, that test might be good enough. But good luck explaining this to stupid people. They don’t even want to distinguish between HCQ given early and HCQ given late.

          2. Blue, I’ve taught chromatography to students. Not sure how that changes a pass/fail detection limit.

          3. pass/fail detection

            I’m imagining that a rapid test would be more subjective and blurry. The stuff I did way back when took many hours. What is your take?

  21. Watched the most excellent DVD “The Hunt” last night with my kids. It perfectly captures the sneering contempt the globalist elites have for Les Deplorables. Oddly for a Hollywood movie, the Deplorables end up being the heroes of the film, which has a lot of dark comic moments. Well worth renting or owning.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tzgfDLJUhw

  22. The globalist oligarchs are really dropping the mask with their agenda of total subservience (for the proles) and authoritarian control. Neel Kashkari, the Fed scumbag who was the architect of the 2008 Wall Street bailout, is now joining St. Greta as a preeminent public health expert. You will comply with the elites’ instructions, citizens!

    https://www.intellihub.com/federal-banker-becomes-new-covid-authority-says-we-need-full-real-hard-lockdown-to-save-economy/

    President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Stability under the Bush and Obama administrations Neel Kashkari says the only way to save American lives from COVID-19 is to fully lock down the entire nation and all of its inhabitants.

    “That’s the only way we’re really going to have a real robust economic recovery,” the American banker told CBS’s Face the Nation. “Otherwise, we’re going to have flare-ups, lockdowns, and a very halting recovery with many more job losses and many more bankruptcies for an extended period of time, unfortunately.”

    1. Nation & World
      Analysis: An unusual year for crime statistics — overall crime decreasing while murders spike across cities nationwide
      By Jeff Asher and Ben Horwitz
      The New York Times
      Jul 06, 2020 at 4:44 PM
      An ambulance arrives at the scene where a 34-year-old woman was fatally shot along in the early hours of Saturday July 4, 2020 in Chicago. (Armando L. Sanchez / Chicago Tribune)

      The national numbers for murder and other types of violent crime rarely move in opposite directions.

      But this is no ordinary year.

      Overall crime is down 5.3% in 25 large American cities relative to the same period in 2019, with violent crime down 2%.

      But murder in these 25 cities is up 16.1% in relation to last year. It’s not just a handful of cities driving this change, either. Property crime is down in 18 of the 25 sampled cities, and violent crime is down in 11 of them, but murder is up in 20 of the cities.
      …

  24. One of the world’s ‘most livable’ cities just went into full lockdown mode as coronavirus cases spike
    Published: Aug. 3, 2020 at 11:48 a.m. ET
    By Shawn Langlois
    A sign reading ‘GO STRAIGHT HOME & ISOLATE’ is seen at the exit of a drive through a COVID-19 testing site at the Highpoint shopping center in Melbourne, Australia. Getty

    Melbourne, which had been named the “world’s most livable city” for seven straight years before being beaten out by Vienna in 2018, won’t be feeling quite so livable for the next six weeks.

    Australia’s second biggest city faces strict lockdown measures as the state of Victoria saw another record spike in coronavirus cases — 671 in a single day, CNN reported.

    How strict? Starting Sunday evening, a curfew between 8 p.m. and 5 a.m. will be enforced, with the premier of Victoria ordering the region into a “state of disaster.”
    …

    2. a “state of disaster.”

      Ironically, their fatality numbers (all of Australia) look like New York State. We’re celebrating what they are hysterical about.

      1. They are actually interested in going back to a maskless normal, and severe lockdown is the only way we have. The US wants to drag this out until 2024.

        1. severe lockdown is the only way we have That is not the only way to a maskless society, it may not even work. Changes that will work include a less virulent virus, treatment or prophylaxis for acute illness &/or a vaccine. Failing those 3, the virus will continue to infect the population. If the virulence doesn’t change — well, that’s what we seem to have now.

          1. So far the only mutation we’ve seen makes the virus more contagious but with the same virulence. No vaccine yet. No widespread treatment yet. Prophylaxis, IMO, is dicey.
            HCQ works as a 7-14 day treatment, but you don’t want to take it for months on end as a prophylaxis. Lockdown and masks are all we have at the moment.

  25. Depending upon how many members of the U.S. workforce eventually get COVID-19, this could be a large drag on future worker productivity.

    The Financial Times
    Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
    Coronavirus treatment
    Fatigue plagues thousands suffering post-coronavirus symptoms | Free to read
    ‘Long-haul Covid’ has already become mired in controversy over causes and treatment
    Some of the most pernicious problems faced by the group of Covid long-haulers are chronic fatigue, high temperature, insomnia, headaches, brain fog, tingling sensations and dizziness
    Anna Gross in London yesterday

    In early March, as angst about Covid-19 was growing, Layth Hishmeh remained unconcerned. At 26, having never been seriously unwell, he felt pretty confident this new virus would barely affect him and would even joke about it with colleagues.

    Then he caught it. After recovering from the initial fortnight of coughing and fever, he collapsed on the street while out shopping. For the next four months he has been ambushed by a baffling array of symptoms, including extreme fatigue, a foggy brain, a raised heartbeat and diarrhoea.

    “I couldn’t sit up for about one month, and then I couldn’t get myself to the bathroom for another month,” he said. “I’m not doing so well on the mental front at the moment, it’s traumatising.”
    …

  26. Here’s where things stand on the extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits that expired on Friday
    Published: Aug. 3, 2020 at 3:14 p.m. ET
    By Elisabeth Buchwald
    Republicans attempted to pass a one-week extension of the $600 benefit as the two parties continue to negotiate a new stimulus package, but could not get enough votes in the Senate to pass it on to the House.
    Republicans and Democrats have not yet reached an agreement on the amount of unemployment insurance to distribute to nearly 30 million jobless Americans.
    (Photo by Brendan Smialowski-Pool/Getty Images) Brendan Smialowski-Pool/Getty Images

    Anyone who has taken a basic chemistry class knows that when you combine oil with water, the two substances will not mix. No matter how hard you shake or stir the combination you’ll still see droplets of oil surrounded by water.

    For the past two weeks, Republican and Democratic lawmakers have acted just like oil and water regarding stimulus talks.

    The two parties failed to reach a compromise on several issues, including the extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits that jobless Americans have been receiving under the $2 trillion CARES Act, causing it to expire entirely on Friday.
    …

    1. There are officially only 17,750 unemployed U.S. workers and 159,932 in the labor force, for an unemployment rate of 11.1%.

      But real journalists say that 30 million U.S. workers are jobless. What is the story for the missing 12,250 thousand workers who are neither working nor unemployed?

    2. the two substances will not mix

      They will if you add soap. Maybe Congress just needs a good cleaning.

  27. “Billionaire hedge-fund manager Cliff Asness has sold his Miami Beach penthouse for $22 million, a significant loss from the $26 million he paid for it just two years ago, according to a person familiar with the deal.”

    I thought I was doing right with my Dove bar soap w/moisturizers, but these big-shots really know how to take a bath!

  28. Did the Fed decide throwing Uncle Buck under the bus is the right medicine to save the economy?

    1. Of course they did. I’ll have to be honest, I’m very nervous having my entire net worth in the bank in cash. In fact, I’ve wondered about trading some of it for a brand new vehicle, because I’m concerned about hyperinflation. In essence, what they’re doing is working. They don’t want anybody in cash. They want to force that money into assets and the greater economy as a whole (war on savers).

      1. Here is a memory from my “cash is trash” days in Mexico in the late 1970’s.

        If you wanted to buy a new car, you basically had two choices: you could pay cash or you could sign up for a credit circle.

        The way a credit circle worked was, you would say go to a VW dealer, and sign up for say a Golf L, for say 48 months. When the circle would start (48 buyers for a Golf L would come together) the current price of a Golf L would be divided by 48, everyone would pay that 1/48th and a buyer would be selected via lottery to take delivery.

        Next month, the current price of a Golf L would be divided by 48, and again, everyone would pay (including the buyers who already took delivery) and another buyer would take delivery. This would repeat until all 48 had received their car. Of course, you might have to wait 48 months to get your car, and it also meant that the monthly payment went up every month.

        But if you saved the 48 payments in the bank, you wouldn’t have enough to buy one after 48 months, because interest earned would not keep up with inflation.

        That is what life is like in a high inflation economy.

        1. Yes, and this is what I worry about. I am watching as all assets massively outstrip incomes, and it continues unabated. What’s shocking is that we should have had a massive leg down in everything, and instead it’s accelerating at a time of 50 million + job losses. I think inflation is already here, and it’s about to explode to the upside.

          1. Wages did rise during Mexico’s hyper inflation days, but they did not keep up with inflation, not even close. It was a very dark time in Mexico and it was when the Mexodus to the US began in earnest.

          3. Do you think U.S. citizens will try to migrate to places with sound money?

            The real question is will those places let Americans in.

            Just for kicks, go to your nearest Mexican consulate and tell them you want to apply for a work visa. Sure, as a turista with a fistful of cash you’re always welcome. You want to work here? Sorry, amigo, no se puede.

          4. Heh, Americans can’t even migrate to Canada, even though they constantly threaten it. They are very surprised that they can’t just walk in. I wonder if they accuse Canadians of not being Christian.

        2. Also, when inflation in Mexico really soared (it reached 130% in the 80’s), used cars would significantly appreciate, though they would be cheaper than new cars.

      2. what they’re doing

        Have you noticed the frequent occurrence here of “This is a credit event”? Saturating the country with debt will not stop a credit event. It’s only just starting.

          1. I agree, and my backstop insurance policy is in PMs that I acquired over the past 40 years. Enough to fill my pantry for life, no more.

            However, history does not progress in a straight line, rather in circles.

    2. Markets
      How the Coming Crash in the Dollar Will Unfold
      The argument that there is no alternative to the U.S. currency makes little sense.
      By Stephen Roach
      June 14, 2020, 3:00 PM PDT
      The dollar’s supremacy is threatened.
      Photographer: China Photos/Getty Images

      Scorn has long been heaped on those daring to question the supremacy of the U.S. dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency. I certainly received more than my fair share in reaction to a column I recently wrote for Bloomberg Opinion on the likelihood of a sharp decline in the greenback. The counter-arguments were strong and highly political, basically boiling down to the so-called TINA defense – that when it comes to the dollar, “there is no alternative.”
      …

    4. Deflating the dollar is only going to work if pay and taxes go up otherwise it will make everything worse which is what has been happening for many years anyway. Assets up compared to dollars and pay unless you get big inflation beating raises . In the case of Tech u can get RSU’s that track inflation instead of sh$ty 2-3% raises. Public workers have been in the catbird seat for a long time but that looks like its going away , lost city revenue as business close left and right.

      1. Shelter has become utterly unaffordable. Get ready for basic staples to go down the same rabbit hole.

        In the case of Tech u can get RSU’s that track inflation

        Most tech workers never get a single RSU. They’re only useful if you work at a public traded firm, and even at those they are not the norm.

        1. Shelter has become utterly unaffordable

          Isn’t it ironic that during this development most people bought the most expensive house they could?

          My housing isn’t unaffordable.

    1. Even without COVID-19 there are billions in health care expenses ahead. That’s been “baked-in” for years.

    1. Report: St. Louis Cardinals went to casino before COVID-19 outbreak

      By Karen August 03, 2020 1:35 PM

      1. Maybe you’re missing the point. But it’s not lost on all the other MLB players who are seeing the prospect of millions of dollars in future career earnings go up in flames.

        1. Breaking|1,545 views|Aug 3, 2020, 05:42pm EDT
          13 Members Of St. Louis Cardinals Contract Coronavirus As Future Of MLB Season In Question
          Matt Perez, Forbes Staff
          Innovation
          I cover breaking news.
          More From Forbes
          TOPLINE
          An outbreak of Covid-19 within the St. Louis Cardinals organization rose to 13 people Monday causing the team to postpone playing until August 7 at the earliest, as the MLB grapples with the possibility of cancelling the season soon after restarting it on July 23.
          Cardinals Twins Baseball
          ASSOCIATED PRESS
          KEY FACTS

          – Seven players and six staffers were reported to have contracted the virus by Monday, after initially reporting two positive cases on Friday.

          – The team learned of the positive cases while in Milwaukee, with the infected players traveling back to St. Louis while the rest of the team remains in Milwaukee.

          – According to MLB insider Jon Heyman, “at least a couple Cardinals did go to a casino,” and the “MLB has since tightened its rule on leaving the team hotel from very strongly discouraged to not allowed.”
          …

        2. But it’s not lost on all the other MLB players who are seeing the prospect of millions of dollars in future career earnings go up in flames.

          Keep kneeling, boyz. That’s going to make me plunk down cash for your league’s streaming channel.

          1. They’ll blame the loss of fans on COVID. It’s a popular scapegoat for everything bad these days.

        3. I couldn’t care less about “MLB players who are seeing the prospect of millions of dollars in future career earnings go up in flames.” or any other knee taking pro athlete or even the WNBA/ U.S Womens soccer players 🙂

          I’m done with all of it.

    2. In One Chart
      Like Warren Buffett half a century ago, quant firm admits to being ‘out of step’ with today’s bubbly conditions
      Published: Aug. 3, 2020 at 4:59 p.m. ET
      By Shawn Langlois
      MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images

      In 1967, Warren Buffett told investors that he was “out of step with present conditions,” an admission that he couldn’t wrap his head around the market climate at the time.

      “I will not abandon a previous approach whose logic I understand (although I find it difficult to apply),” Buffett explained, “even though it may mean foregoing large, and apparently easy, profits to embrace an approach which I don’t fully understand, have not practiced successfully, and which possibly could lead to substantial permanent loss of capital.”
      …

  33. I’m nearing the end of the Chinese matcha my daughter brought me from Wuhan City following her visit there last summer. Apparently they got pretty lucky with the timing of their trip last summer, just a few months before the first reports of a novel coronavirus emerged.

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