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Demand In Terms Of Price Has Cratered Significantly

A report from the Los Angeles Times in California. “In downtown Los Angeles, rent for a 566-square-foot one-bedroom at the Eighth and Grand luxury apartments would have set you back at least $2,286 at the end of January, according to Zillow. As of Thursday, the same size unit at the building with a Whole Foods on the ground floor was advertised for as low as $1,771. A few blocks away, at another luxury building, monthly rent for the cheapest 1,284-square-foot, three-bedroom unit has come down $385, to $3,870. Walk a bit more and you’ll find more discounts, often with extra goodies such as two months’ free rent.”

“The declines appear concentrated in the top end of the marketplace, according to multiple data sources, but there are signs rents are falling slightly on the lower end as well. ‘The pain is landing at the top,’ said Steve Basham, an analyst at CoStar.”

“CoStar data show the largest rent declines in the Mid-Wilshire area and downtown, where rents have fallen 10% and 8%, respectively, since March. Those areas, which are more expensive than the city as a whole, have also seen a flood of new, luxury apartments. Estimates didn’t take into account the expiration of the $600 in additional weekly unemployment benefits. ‘It could be a pretty dramatic downturn in the coming months,’ CoStar analyst Basham said.”

The North Bay Business Journal in California. “State and local governments that continue to allow renters in this pandemic era to delay payments are raising concerns among property owners and managers. Their looming question: If tenants don’t pay their rent to the landlords, how will property owners pay their mortgages? Some have already answered that question — by selling off properties.”

“Keith Becker, general manager for DeDe’s Rentals and Property Management of Santa Rosa, said that of 500 tenants Becker’s company rents to, four have stopped paying, negotiating and communicating. Eleven renters are attempting to pay but have fallen short. The loss of tenant income has resulted in 12 units leaving the rental market. Eight units are on the market, and property owners plan to sell four.”

“‘I can’t tell you we’re doing great. In the last three months, the number of properties rented have consistently flat-lined, and the clients are unsettled,’ he told the Business Journal.”

“Property owner Jennifer Coleman knows the territory far too well. The Sonoma County landlord has sold two single-family homes and a townhouse to scale down the number of properties she rents. ‘It’s the draconian evolution of laws. I wanted to lighten my risk. It frightened me,’ said Coleman, who has rented her own space for 19 years. Owing debt is hard enough for a homeowner owning one house, much less multiple locations. ‘It’s a gamble, but this is my retirement,’ she said.”

From Multi-Housing News. “The second quarter is usually strongest in demand for multifamily housing. But that was not the case this year, when net absorption plummeted to the lowest Q2 level in 11 years, only 21,100 units. Completions were higher in both the first half and second quarters of 2020, compared with year-earlier numbers. They stood at 129,100 in the first half and 78,300 units in Q2. In the year ending Q2, New York City and Dallas topped the country in the number of multifamily units delivered, with Houston rounding out the top three.”

“As a measure of overbuilding risk, the completions-to-inventory ratio of 4.9 percent in Austin was particularly high. Omaha, Neb., and Orlando, Fla., were next, with 3.9 and 3.7 percent respectively. The net absorption in Austin for the quarter was 76.6 percent of deliveries. Absorption matched completions for the quarter in Omaha. Orlando’s net absorption was 61.6 percent of deliveries in Q2.”

From Yahoo Money. “An estimated 30 to 40 million Americans are at risk of losing their homes over the next several months after a federal eviction moratorium for government-backed mortgages expired on July 24, according to a new report from The Aspen Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. ‘The United States may be facing the most severe housing crisis in its history,’ the authors of the report wrote. ‘The COVID-19 housing crisis has sharply increased the risk of foreclosure and bankruptcy; long-term harm to renter families and individuals; disruption of the affordable housing market; and destabilization of communities across the United States.'”

“‘There are a lot of protection laws in California, especially in places like Los Angeles,” said Jonas Bordo, CEO of Dwellsey, a home and apartment listing site. ‘I think you’re looking at least four to six months in the eviction process. If you’re a landlord, you might imagine the results of that.'”

“Once the local California eviction protections expire, Bordo said, some renters would have ample time to figure their situation out due to the ‘stratification of rentals.’ ‘Demand for the top 20% of rentals in terms of price has cratered significantly and therefore there’s a low likelihood that they’ll evict someone. It will take you months to find someone better to work with,’ Bordo said.”

From Bisnow. “The indecision wrought by the coronavirus pandemic on global business essentially froze critical revenue streams for commercial real estate brokerage firms during the second quarter. While brokerage leaders say business will improve toward year’s end, it likely won’t prevent a spike in empty office spaces, declining rents and falling values. Commercial real estate investors are struggling to price buildings, and with sellers still expecting more than buyers are willing to pay, the investment sales market has plummeted, dropping by nearly 70% year-over-year in Q2, according to CoStar data.”

“As companies punt on office decisions, most brokerages saw leasing revenues drop between 40% and 50%, particularly in the United States. ‘In the near term, we’ve seen a precipitous drop in leasing and sales activity. Investment capital has moved to the sidelines as investors begin the process of price discovery,’ CBRE CEO Bob Sulentic said.”

From Skilled Nursing News. “Citing significant financial strain related to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, nursing home giant Genesis HealthCare on Monday expressed serious concerns about its future — while also raising the specter of a potential bankruptcy filing. ‘Without giving effect to the prospect, timing and adequacy of future governmental funding support and other mitigating plans, many of which are beyond the Company’s control, it is unlikely that the Company will be able to generate sufficient cash flows to meet its required financial obligations, including its rent obligations, its debt service obligations and other obligations due to third parties,’ the Kennett Square, Pa.-based operator announced in its second-quarter earnings release.”

“‘The existence of these conditions raises substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern for the twelve-month period following the date the financial statements are issued,’ the release continued.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Thousands of commercial-mortgage borrowers have been struggling to meet payments on their loans in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. But there might be another reason so many are falling behind: aggressive lending practices that overstated borrowers’ ability to repay. A study of $650 billion of commercial mortgages originated from 2013 to 2019 found that even during normal economic times, the mortgaged properties’ net income often falls short of the amount underwritten by lenders.”

“The underwritten amount should be a conservative estimate of how much a property earns. Instead, the actual net income trails underwritten net income by 5% or more in 28% of the loans, according to the study of nearly 40,000 loans by two finance academics at the University of Texas at Austin.”

“The study shows risks in the $1.4 trillion market for commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, where loans on malls, apartment buildings, hotels and the like get packaged into bonds bought by investors, often with guarantees from the government. The findings suggest that loans sold to investors before the pandemic frequently featured overstated income and could have more trouble staying current in case of a downturn.”

“Income was overstated by more than 5% in more than 40% of loans originated by UBS, Starwood Property Trust and Goldman Sachs Inc., the study said. Loans from these originators were among those most likely to be on a watch list, John Griffin, a finance professor and co-author on the study found. ‘This is a direct function of the aggressive underwriting,’ Mr. Griffin said.”

“Sometimes fraud can play a role, too, according to federal prosecutors. In 2019, the SEC and the Justice Department each filed fraud cases against Robert Morgan, who had borrowed about $3 billion to amass a multifamily property empire that once spanned more than 34,000 units across 14 states. Prosecutors alleged that Mr. Morgan conspired to create fictitious leases at some of his properties to make their income look bigger than it was. The SEC alleged that he ran a Ponzi-scheme-like scam that used investors’ money to ‘repay an inflated, fraudulently obtained loan’ on one of his properties.”

“Mr. Griffin found that 70% of loans exhibiting income inflation of 5% or more in the first year of the CMBS deal also overstated properties’ historical financials. John Flynn, a CMBS industry veteran who filed the complaint, said that after poring over thousands of loans, he feels relieved to see someone else spot the same pattern. ‘It’s much more widespread than I even realized,’ Mr. Flynn said.”

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This Post Has 187 Comments

  1. ‘A study of $650 billion of commercial mortgages originated from 2013 to 2019 found that even during normal economic times, the mortgaged properties’ net income often falls short of the amount underwritten by lenders…the actual net income trails underwritten net income by 5% or more in 28% of the loans, according to the study of nearly 40,000 loans’

    I told readers here this was the case in 2014.

    ‘The study shows risks in the $1.4 trillion market for commercial mortgage-backed securities’

    Is that a lot?

    ‘or CMBS, where loans on malls, apartment buildings, hotels and the like get packaged into bonds bought by investors, often with guarantees from the government’

    And I pointed this out numerous times. Risky behavior and fraud, encouraged by the guberment. Way to go Mel Watt!

    1. “Income was overstated by more than 5% in more than 40% of loans originated by UBS, Starwood Property Trust and Goldman Sachs Inc.”

      “Bonds bought by investors, often with guarantees from the government.”

      So those under 62 will be facing a loss of federal old age benefits they had paid into for decades as money is diverted to this?

      1. You do have to pay attention in this world. How many people know about the alleged biggest mortgage fraud since last decade in the Morgan case? A sliver of 1%? And that the guberment guaranteed many millions of loans which were apparently covered up by such master deceit as placing some flip flops on door mats and playing radios. Should people have asked, hey, we’ve got the biggest apartment/CRE boom in 40 years going on, how much fraud is in there? All these things I’d bet less than 1% have any idea about.

        See, we’re told the guberment has tightened up “consumer protection”, when it was the loan guarantees (often non-recourse BTW) that were baking these losses into the cake.

        1. How many people know about the alleged biggest mortgage fraud since last decade in the Morgan case?

          No need to fret, Ben. Fauxahontus and Maxine Waters are in the financial system wheelhouse, so it’s all good.

  2. ‘The existence of these conditions raises substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern for the twelve-month period’

    Mentioning going concern is accountant talk for the investors, and pretty much everybody we owe money, are fooked.

  3. ‘It’s the draconian evolution of laws. I wanted to lighten my risk. It frightened me,’ said Coleman, who has rented her own space for 19 years. Owing debt is hard enough for a homeowner owning one house, much less multiple locations. ‘It’s a gamble, but this is my retirement’

    Jennifer was cash flow negative too. Don’t rush the exits are the same time everybody!

      1. ‘It’s a gamble, but this is my retirement’
        and
        “Those two phrases should never go together.”

        +1

        – The Government/Fed/Treasury/FIRE industrial complex, with the cattle prod of easy credit terms and ultra-low rates on safe time deposits/savings, has driven even conservative investors into the speculative investments of “The Everything Bubble” (again), including real estate.

        – The ensuing bubble and it’s aftermath just keeps getting bigger after each new cycle. Since this is “The Everything Bubble,” there’s no place to hide.

        – Just like Robinhood “investors” (read gamblers), everyone in speculative investments, including FAANGM, passive index funds, and junk bonds, or pretty much everything now, is in for a rude awakening, IMHO.

        “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” – Benjamin Graham

        “Confronted with the challenge to distil the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety.” – Benjamin Graham

        “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.” – Benjamin Graham

        “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” – Benjamin Graham

  4. A few blocks away, at another luxury building, monthly rent for the cheapest 1,284-square-foot, three-bedroom unit has come down $385, to $3,870.

    Experience vibrant cultural enrichment as soon as you step out of your building’s foyer. No thanks.

  5. ‘CoStar data show the largest rent declines in the Mid-Wilshire area and downtown, where rents have fallen 10% and 8%, respectively, since March. Those areas, which are more expensive than the city as a whole, have also seen a flood of new, luxury apartments. Estimates didn’t take into account the expiration of the $600 in additional weekly unemployment benefits’

    The LA Times tries to pain this as a virus thing. But LA rents have been sinking like a turd in a well for a long time. And it’s massively overbuilt.

    ‘It could be a pretty dramatic downturn in the coming months’

    Costar says. Rents in San Francisco have fallen off the chart, not in coming months – now. And Costar recently bought into the distress biz BTW.

      1. rents need to come down 50%

        They will as soon as rents have to be paid every month from people’s paychecks. And not until then.

    2. “The LA Times tries to pain[t] this as a virus thing. But LA rents have been sinking like a turd in a well for a long time. And it’s massively overbuilt.”

      – The CCP virus pandemic only accelerated the economic decline that was already underway, since “baked into the cake” due to 12 years of easy $. Bubbles always pop. Just look at the dot com bubble of 2000 and housing bubble 1.0 of 2008. Those were mostly single asset class bubbles. This is “The Everything Bubble”, aka the central banker bubble. If there’s any doubt, it just might be a little worse this time, since most all asset classes are involved.

      – The Fed: “Doing the most harm since 1913.”

  6. ‘70% of loans exhibiting income inflation of 5% or more in the first year of the CMBS deal also overstated properties’ historical financials. John Flynn, a CMBS industry veteran who filed the complaint, said that after poring over thousands of loans, he feels relieved to see someone else spot the same pattern. ‘It’s much more widespread than I even realized’

    Remember the poster here who said, those loans will probably be OK?

    Eat yer crowz, where every you are, rental watch.

      1. Some of these REIC trolls made great punching bags. Can’t blame them for bailing, but they provided endless hours of entertainment as we slaughtered their sacred cows.

    2. Remember “Oneagainstmany” or whatever his name was, and his Airbnb empire he was managing? I’d imagine he may have even lost his job by now.

  7. ‘The second quarter is usually strongest in demand for multifamily housing. But that was not the case this year, when net absorption plummeted to the lowest Q2 level in 11 years, only 21,100 units. Completions were higher in both the first half and second quarters of 2020, compared with year-earlier numbers. They stood at 129,100 in the first half and 78,300 units in Q2. In the year ending Q2, New York City and Dallas topped the country in the number of multifamily units delivered, with Houston rounding out the top three’

    ‘As a measure of overbuilding risk, the completions-to-inventory ratio of 4.9 percent in Austin was particularly high. Omaha, Neb., and Orlando, Fla., were next, with 3.9 and 3.7 percent respectively. The net absorption in Austin for the quarter was 76.6 percent of deliveries. Absorption matched completions for the quarter in Omaha. Orlando’s net absorption was 61.6 percent of deliveries in Q2’

    Crater to the left of me, crater to the right. Wa happened to my shortage?

  8. “.. A few blocks away, at another luxury building, monthly rent…” “…has come down…” “…Walk a bit more and you’ll find more discounts…”

    “Luxury” anything, whether presented as conventional or student rentals is such a complete and total scam.

    Anybody who knows how to do arithmetic must realize that a large fraction of these outrageous rents actual subsidize doggie walks, pools, saunas, blueberry muffins on Saturday, roof top jogging runs and other bling that, unless you have specific needs, are a complete waste of money.

    Too many folks now can barely make rent, but they have been sold a bill of goods and think that they really want/need all this junk.

    What is truly sad, is a lot of young folks in their early 20’s/30’s, that if they pruned their rent even a few hundred bucks a month and invested instead, may not find themselves poverty stricken when they reach their 60’s.

      1. Forget the finishes. Even the basic construction and materials are crap. You know what I would find super luxurious? Proper insulation and noise proofing, so that I don’t hear my upstairs neighbors’ every footsteps or the startlingly loud conversations of people passing by in the hallway. The thing is, in many locations there are no other housing options. Anything cheaper or less “luxurious” either has tenants who never leave because it’s such a good deal, or the housing and other nearby residents are so scary you’d pay anything not to live near them. Even in my class A apartment complex, my neighbors aren’t exactly the best and the brightest.

        1. You know what I would find super luxurious? Proper insulation and noise proofing, so that I don’t hear my upstairs neighbors’ every footsteps or the startlingly loud conversations of people passing by in the hallway.

          +1. My current rental is older and the walls seem to actually have insulation. But sharing walls still sucks.

        2. “…You know what I would find super luxurious? Proper insulation and noise proofing..”

          Here in SoCal, (Irvine), its all about makin’ ’em fast and makin’ ’em cheap. The stucco / re-cycled plastic / fake granite exteriors look convincing, but aren’t going to last, even in mild SoCal weather.

          I once helped a friend level a fridge in a unit he bought as a rental in one of those high rises off Jamboree Blvd. Not a square corner or a level floor in sight.

        3. When people ask why I bought an SFH, I tell them “the only banging headboard I want to hear is my own.”

  9. San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 20% YOY As One Broker Shared, “Rent A House For Half The Monthly Cost. Buy It Later Because Prices Are Plunging.”

    https://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92109/home-values/

    As one San Diego broker lamented, “How can we possibly sell a resale house when builders are selling new houses on the same street for 20% and sometimes 30% less?”

  10. But there might be another reason so many are falling behind: aggressive lending practices that overstated borrowers’ ability to repay.

    B…b…but this is inconceivable. Our financial system under the wise and capable stewardship of Senators Running Deer and Maxine Waters would never resort to predatory or unsound lending. The REIC trolls who used to ooze onto the HBB confirmed this numerous times when they assured us that loose lending was a thing of the distant past.

    1. Local newspapers tell me in Utah all lending is really, really super solid.

      I do know some people who bought a house with less than $10,000 down recently. I’m sure the bank made sure they had lots of liquid savings before they issued the loan. After all, it’s super tight lending with 3% down. What could possibly go wrong.

  11. Are you missing the V-$haped COVID-19 economic recovery rally to record high levels on the headline Wall Street stock market indices?

    1. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      Markets Briefing Equities
      Wall Street stocks near record peak after rally in Europe
      Global equities lifted by fiscal stimulus optimism and vaccine hopes as Russia approves Covid-19 treatment
      US markets have posted an extraordinary rebound from the lows hit during the darkest days of March
      © AP
      Harry Dempsey in London and Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong an hour ago

      US stocks climbed on Tuesday, following sharp gains in Europe, leaving Wall Street’s benchmark barometer within touching distance of the all-time high it set before the coronavirus-induced market tumult.

      The S&P 500 rose 0.5 per cent at the start of trading to about half a per cent below the peak it reached in February, before Covid-19 fears gripped American and global markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which hit a fresh record high on Friday, slipped 0.3 per cent.

      The gains in the US followed a broad advance in Europe, with the continent-wide Stoxx 600 rising 2 per cent and London’s FTSE 100 up 2.1 per cent. MSCI’s broad index of markets in Asia advanced 1.1 per cent.

      Market confidence has been bolstered by a barrage of monetary and fiscal stimulus as well as rising hopes for an effective Covid-19 vaccine. Russia on Tuesday said it had approved its vaccine for use beyond clinical trials, while potential immunisations being developed by big drug companies around the world have shown promise.

      Goldman Sachs has forecast that the main US drug regulator will approve a Covid-19 vaccine before the end of 2020. Rachel Winter, associate investment director at wealth adviser Killik & Co, said Russia’s announcement “reminded people that a vaccine is on the way”.
      …

      1. Rachel Winter, associate investment director at wealth adviser Killik & Co, said Russia’s announcement “reminded people that a vaccine is on the way”.

        Markets up on this “good news”? I will not be injecting some unproven toxic avenger COVID vaccine while the jury is still out on efficacy and potential side effects.

        1. The market is grasping at straws, and MSM porcine beauticians are trotting out any lame explanation for why the headline stock market indices always go up besides the obvious fact that too many Powell bux are chasing too few corporate profits.

        2. I’m using today’s market as a test case for the price of PMs. Today’s whiff of real vaccine news has dropped the price of gold 5% and silver 12%, and the day is only half over. What that says to me is that the people are buying pm ONLY because of the pandemic. Remove the pandemic, and back down it goes.
          Nobody appears to be pricing in the pending recession/depression that was predicted a year ago — you know, the one that started with the inversion of the yield curve and the repo-market crisis and the corporate debt doom loop. That crash was predicted pre-COVID, and it is still waiting to happen. We might vaccinate away the COVID, but not the corporate debt. Let’s see how far gold pulls back before it starts zooming on inflation again.

          1. I suppose that the pandemic may have been a factor in PM prices, but haven’t we been hearing for months that great progress is being made and a vaccine should be available “real soon”.

            I do not plan on being a guinea pig for some rushed vaccine, even if that means no international travel for me.

          2. We have been hearing the vaccine news, but it has been all Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials. I wasn’t expecting a real PM pullback until something made it through Western-world Phase 3, which is still weeks away.

            This Russian vaccine appears to be more like a Phase 2 stage, but the market is treating it as a Phase 3 success, probably because the yahoos got tripped up by the word “registry.”

            Might be a good time to buy the dip, especially in silver. This might be a pretty long-lived dip too since it will take some time to figure out whether this Russian vaccine is a pass or fail.

          4. Let’s see how far gold pulls back before it starts zooming on inflation again.’

            Yep we will see

          5. TIPs are pleasant. Eventually central govbs will create inflation.
            Poor productivity from gov interferense can create some inflation.

          6. My dad’s financial advisor got him into some TIPS in the early 2000s that pay a higher yield than long-term Treasurys do today. And when inflation kicks in, they will continue to hold their value. They are looking like among the last of the no-lose investment options at this point.

    2. $adly, Ye$. ( long inhale, deep $igh.)

      ⛽💉📈🎈📈🎈📈🎈📈🎈🐂🚀🆙↗⤴⬆🔥🚫🚩🎇🎆🎉🎉🎉🎉 … ☕🍞🍌🌾

      iffin’ all thee $tawk.Market $ectors keep $elf.inflating , they i$ gonna look like this fella on mu$cle $teriods! … (Maybee “Bidendum” i$ $ome kinda financial exce$$e$ “omem”?)

      one of the best examples can be found in a symbol that is now 116 years old: the Michelin Man, or Bibendum, as he was formally known. He is an unusual figure in logo design.

      Bibendum, commonly referred to in English as the Michelin Man or Michelin Tyre Man, is the official mascot of the Michelin tyre company. A humanoid figure consisting of stacked white tyres, the mascot was introduced at the Lyon Exhibition of 1894 where the Michelin brothers had a stand, and is one of the world’s oldest trademarks. The slogan Nunc est bibendum (Now is the time to drink) is taken from Horace’s Odes (book I, ode xxxvii, line 1)

      https://i.pinimg.com/originals/03/b3/d1/03b3d12cd2319c9226f5daf1188bd780.jpg

      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/88/Michelin_Poster_1898.jpg/220px-Michelin_Poster_1898.jpg

      Thee.🍊.jesus is warmin’up!:

      http://m.digitaljournal.com/internet/op-ed-twitter-goes-wild-after-meme-of-trump-fiddling-goes-viral/article/568446.

  12. Business
    Analysis
    An indicator that presaged the housing crisis is flashing red again
    Rows of houses in Las Vegas. (Jacob Kepler/Bloomberg News)
    By Andrew Van Dam
    July 14, 2020 at 8:05 a.m. PDT

    New mortgage delinquencies hit a record in April, well above anything seen during the Great Recession.

    Some 3.4 percent of Americans became at least 30 days delinquent on their mortgage in April, according to an analysis from CoreLogic. The real estate data firm’s figures include about three of four U.S. mortgages, going back to 1999.

    Mortgage delinquencies were among the first signs of the housing crisis and can signal underlying weakness in the housing market. But does the surge in delinquency mean a second housing crisis looms with a wave of foreclosures?

    Probably not. As with most data released during this coronavirus period, these figures come wrapped in caveats and uncertainty.
    …

    1. But does the surge in delinquency mean a second housing crisis looms with a wave of foreclosures?

      Probably not. As with most data released during this coronavirus period, these figures come wrapped in caveats and uncertainty.

      I see what you did there, REIC shills masquerading as journalists.

  14. ” … As with most data released during this coronaviru$ 👾period, the$e figure$ come wrapped in caveat$ and uncertainty.

    Imagine, a hurricane, tornado, tidal wave, & derecho all hit in the $ame area on a dark moonle$$ night, & all you got to view the damage$ is a 1960’s boy.scout 🔦 with 1/2 used ray-O-vac batteries.

    Economic$
    $mall Busine$$es Are Dying By The Thousand$ — And No One Is Tracking the Carnage$

    Bloomberg, By Madeleine Ngo / August 11, 2020

    They simply close down and never show up in bankruptcy tallies
    More than half of owners are worried their firm won’t survive

    Big companies are going bankrupt at a record pace, but that’s only part of the carnage. By some accounts, small businesses are disappearing by the thousands amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and the drag on the economy from these failures could be huge.

    This wave of silent failures goes uncounted in part because real-time data on small business is notoriously scarce, and because owners of small firms often have no debt, and thus no need for bankruptcy court.

    “Probably all you need to do is call the utilities and tell them to turn them off and close your door,” said William Dunkelberg, who runs a monthly survey as chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business. Nevertheless, closures “are going to be well above normal because we’re in a disastrous economic situation,” Dunkelberg said.

    Yelp Inc., the online reviewer, has data showing more than 80,000 permanently shuttered from March 1 to July 25. About 60,000 were local businesses, or firms with fewer than five locations. About 800 small businesses did indeed file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy from mid-February to July 31, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute, and the trade group expects the 2020 total could be up 36% from last year.

    Busine$$ Bust$
    Re$taurant indu$try lead$ with most local busine$$ closure$

    No Help
    Chapter 11 bankruptcy gives a business protection from its creditors while the owners work out a turnaround plan. For smaller companies, though, the extra time might not make any difference. “Bankruptcy cannot create more revenue,” said Robert Keach, a restructuring partner at New England-based Bernstein Shur and former president at the American Bankruptcy Institute.

    Some owners fear bankruptcy could $car their credit reports and hurt their future chances to rebuild. Bankrupt businesses have a nearly 24 percentage point higher likelihood of being denied a loan, according to the SBA, and a filing can show up on a credit report for 10 years.

    Lo$t Revenue$

    To be sure, small business attrition is high even in normal times. Only about half of all establishments survive for at least five years, according to the SBA. But the swiftness of the pandemic and the huge drop in economic activity is hitting hard among typically upbeat entrepreneurs. About 58% of small business owners say they’re worried about permanently closing, according to a July U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey.

    In a June 2020 NFIB survey, a net 31% of owners reported lower sales in the past three months, while 7% reported higher sales a year earlier. In the same survey, only 13% of business owners said it was a good time to expand, a dip from 24% a year earlier.

    1. Citizen! Please stop researching COVID on your own, and run around screaming and waving your arms like the rest of the herd.

    2. Thee.deeth.virus.👾… She.loves.you, or … She.loves you knot … munch, munch, munch …

    3. Covid-19 Aug. 9, 2020
      The Good (But Not Great) News About T-Cells and Herd Immunity
      By David Wallace-Wells
      People walking on the street on August 6 in New York City. Photo: Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images

      Over the six months of the COVID-19 pandemic, you would never have gone broke betting on the disease continuing to surprise — on its apparent ability to grow weirder, less predictable, and less consistent, at times by the day. What first looked like a simple respiratory disease produced, over time, disorienting, diverse damage — in lungs, in hearts, in brains.
      …

      1. less predictable, and less consistent These adjectives imply there was some basis for prediction and evaluation of consistency at the beginning of this pandemic. News item: there was little if any basis for prediction.

    4. T-cell immunity allows populations to reach herd immunity once only 10-20% If true that indicates the general population already had a high degree of T-cell immunity prior to the onset of COVID-19. This means that the wished-for “herd immunity” had a head start even before the pandemic started. AFAICT there is no widespread testing for this prior T-cell immunity being done.

      1. 9/ What does this mean?

        All those runny noses from the common cold prepared our T cells to fight COVID-19.

        Although it has been ominously called the “novel-coronavirus”, SARS-CoV-2 is yet another coronavirus with many similarities in structure to the common cold coronaviruses.

        1. “with many similarities in structure to the common cold coronaviruses.👾”

          Eye.did.knot.knows thee: ” 📢…it’s just a common.cold folks!!! ” devoured 💀 a human every ⌛ 80 seconds! 📝 😳😵

        2. And that’s why the supposed ease of cooking up a vaccine on short notice seems doubtful. Where’s the vaccine for the common cold?

          On the other hand, hyping up the prospect of a vaccine seems like a great approach for getting investors to dump buckets of Powell bux into pharmaceutical firm sharez.

          1. The “common cold” isn’t really an illness, it’s just a collective term for similar symptoms. The rate it mutates and the cost of vaccine development versus the mildness of a cold makes it unprofitable to develop a vaccine.

          2. There are hints that the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 has already mutated into different versions. With 20 million cases, it seems like there’s a lot of opportunity for further variaties to develop.

      2. 20 million out of 7.8 billion is only 0.26%. Gotta waze to go before herd immunity at 10%+ is achieved.

        1. To put this in other terms, the outbreak will have to grow by at least 40X to get to the lower end of the herd immunity range.

          Any thoughts on how long this “hoped for” outcome would take to achieve?

          1. “Any thoughts on how long this “hoped for” outcome would take to achieve?”

            circumstantial evidence, like when you find a trout in yer milk!

            Update: 826 students under quarantine in Cherokee after possible COVID-19 exposures

            Tuesday, Aug 11, 2020
            By Maureen Downey, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

            In the six days that Cherokee County $chools have been in se$$ion, the north Georgia di$trict has had to direct 826 students to quarantine due to possible exposure to COVID-19, along with 42 teacher$.

            In a letter to parents Friday, Cherokee Superintendent Brian Hightower said, “How long can we keep schools open? The answer will depend on all of us as a community. We need to social distance whenever we can, and always wear masks when we cannot. As we said before reopening, social distancing is not possible in all situations at our schools – this is why we require our staff to wear masks or face shields when they cannot distance, and this is why we’re providing masks to students and strongly recommending they wear them. This is a critical component to keeping schools open. Parents need to continue to keep their children home when they’re sick.”

          3. You’ve misspelled your name. You have an “h” where the “y” is supposed to be.

            It was a test … YOU!, get a exit Gold.$tar!

          4. & eyes’ve acknowledged that eye barely passed 10th grade typing with chicken.peck testing, & only took the class ’cause a cute gryl named Angie was inn that class.

          1. We’re racing towards herd immunity!

            “In just six weeks, the number of cases around the globe doubled as countries that had been in lockdown began opening up in April.

            The same thing happened in the U.S., where the bulk of the new cases have been reported in the South and in the Sun Belt in states like Florida, which started reopening in May …and have since seen an ongoing surge in new cases, including 276 more deaths reported Tuesday.”

        3. 13/ Adding the 50% who already had T cell immunity from common cold viruses to the newly infected 10-20% equals about 60-70% immunity.

          Not coincidentally, 60-70% is the percentage epidemiologists project is necessary for herd immunity with a respiratory virus.

          1. That sounds like wishful thinking, given that the number of confirmed cases worldwide doubled in the past six weeks.

        4. out of 7.8 billion

          Maybe the ratio should only include those tested (and who are still alive).

          Apparently we have a vast army of health officials. Is it conceivable that none of them yet have an inkling of the accuracy of these tests? No analysis of false results for people tested repeatedly? No indication of how long a person tests positive?

          No, I didn’t think so.

      1. If it’s linked to 19 scientific publications, we shouldn’t question the post. We should rather humbly marvel at the wisdom conferred.

          1. Thee.deeth.virus.👾… She.loves.you, 🌼 … or … She.loves you knot 🌼… munch, munch, munch …

            “Deeth.👾.obscenities, eye my knot bee able to define it, but eye know it when eye see it! (Judge.doctor Potter Stewart)

            Don’t make an informed decision, just grab an un.edicated.guess! & roll.thee snake.Eye 💀🎲

          2. Citizen! Please stop researching COVID on your own, and run around screaming and waving your arms like the rest of the herd.

            Looks like the Prof Bear is doing exactly that! 🐔🐔🐔

          3. Not at all. I merely repeat the news, which seems like alarmism to people who like to view the world through rose colored glasses.

          4. Not at all. I merely repeat the news, which seems like alarmism to people who like to view the world through rose colored glasses.

            This.

          5. I read about it this am it sounds interesting. Why some people get so sick and others don’t maybe because of past immunity from getting sick with a cold .

          6. It would appear that the solution for many people who previously experienced serious health challenges was to sacrifice their immune system leaving them highly vulnerable to the current pandemic.

    6. San Quentin’s coronavirus outbreak shows why ‘herd immunity’ could mean disaster
      Rong-Gong Lin II, Kim Christensen
      ,LA Times•August 11, 2020
      A condemned prisoner touches the mesh fence in the exercise yard during a media tour at San Quentin State Prison.
      (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

      For critics of aggressive stay-at-home orders, the solution seems clear: Reopen the economy and enough people will eventually become infected by the novel coronavirus to achieve “herd immunity” even before a vaccine is available.

      The idea is that eventually, a sufficient percentage of the population will have survived COVID-19 and become immune, which in turn protects the rest of the uninfected population by interrupting the spread of the virus.

      But the disastrous situation unfolding at San Quentin State Prison over the last two months has become the latest of several cautionary tales that show how any effort to achieve herd immunity before a vaccine is available would come with enormous costs in terms of illness and death.
      …

    7. Aug 11, 2020, 07:20pm EDT
      Stop Trying To Make ‘Herd Immunity’ Happen: Sweden’s Attempt At Covid-19 Herd Immunity Failed
      Misha Gajewski, Contributor
      Healthcare
      I write about the brain and body or in more scientific terms psychology, mental health , fitness and nutrition.

      While most countries went into lockdown as Covid-19 spread rapidly across the world, Sweden took a different approach and allowed the controlled spread of coronavirus among the population in attempts to achieve herd immunity.

      They relied on individuals to responsibly social distance and slow the spread of the disease, but, according to a new study published by the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, this decision has been a failure.

      “It is clear that not only are the rates of viral infection, hospitalisation and mortality (per million population) much higher than those seen in neighbouring Scandinavian countries, but also that the time-course of the epidemic in Sweden is different, with continued persistence of higher infection and mortality well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway,” said, lead author Professor David Goldsmith.
      …

  16. More than 97,000 children tested positive for Covid-19 in the last two weeks of July, report says

    From CNN’s Christina Maxouris
    9:14 a.m. ET, August 10, 2020

    More than 97,000 children in the US tested positive for coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, a new report says.

    The report, published by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association, said in those two weeks, there was a 40% increase in child cases across the states and cities that were studied.

    The age range for children differed by state, with some defining children as only those up to age 14 and one state — Alabama — pushing the limit to 24

    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-08-10-20-intl/h_f2d832ca0517f35288c87c6dd480ac42

    1. In the 19 and under little league of those 32 states does everyone get a trophy? Are 24 year-olds in Alabama home schooled? Do the 18-year-olds in those 2 states still have a bedtime?

      NEW COVID HOAX: FEDS COUNTING POSITIVE ADULTS AS CHILDREN TO BOOST FEAR IN PARENTS

      One state counting people up to 24-years-old

      Infowars.com – AUGUST 11, 2020

      Two states reported 18-year-olds as children, 32 states counted 19-year-olds, two states counted 20-year-olds, and Alabama counted cases up to 24-years-old as “child cases” of COVID-19.

      In late June, the federal government was caught changing the definition of a “confirmed case” to allow “probable cases” to be counted as actual cases in national and state statistics.

    2. The fear-mongering is working. A friend just sent me a logo for her homeschool academy with the motto “Saving Lives By Learning At Home.”

    3. 97,000 children

      This is an artifact of increased testing. How do know that another 194,000 wouldn’t have tested positive back in April? It sounds like few of these kids ever showed a single symptom, and therefore would never have been tested.

  17. To provide a rough guess on the answer to my question, note that 2^5 = 32 and 2^6 = 64. So with a six weeks doubling time, the estimated time to a 10% worldwide infection rate is 30 to 36 weeks.

    We could be out of coronaville and onto herd immunity by early 2021!

    1. PS I know the data are bad, wrong, uncertain, etc. For instance, some folks have speculated that confirmed cases underestimate actual by 10X. So maybe we only need to double cases twice (X4) to achieve herd immunity in only 12 weeks (some time in November).

      1. So maybe we only need to double cases twice

        The “pandemic” has been over in NY for more than two months. The positives are stuck at 1% of those tested. We will never double the total number of supposed cases.

  18. Oh dear…sorry, FBs and speculators, but Chinese buyers won’t be riding to your rescue.

    https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3096784/chinese-purchases-us-property-slump-amid-covid-19-pandemic-rising

    Chinese purchases of US property slump amid Covid-19 pandemic, with rising political tension set to damp sentiment further

    Mainland Chinese buyers’ acquisition of US property plunged by about two-thirds in the first half of the year because of disruption to investment activity caused by the coronavirus pandemic and escalating tension between China and the US, according to Knight Frank.

    The sales volume of US property valued at not less than US$2.5 million bought with Chinese capital plunged by 68.1 per cent year on year in the first six months to US$314 million, data from the real estate consultancy showed. Investment in large cities, such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, fell the most.

    1. If Baby Boomers can’t sell off the country, where will the U.S. get the money for our consumption in excess of production?

      1. If Baby Boomers can’t sell off the country, where will the U.S. get the money for our consumption in excess of production?”

        looks like we are going to find out

          1. Especially, thee one’$ around moose country, “why, eye do declare, eye can see Russia wright from here!” … “Sarah.eye’m.the.Palin barracuda!”

          2. Kamala Harris is a nasty skank. Anybody ask her about Jussie Smollett and the “attempted modern day lynching” lately?

          3. Kamala Harris is a na$ty $kank.

            Like, the 🍊.jesus & his new love, immigrant $kinny Melania!

          6. the most gorgeous

            The media does not want beauty. They prefer to give us disgust, despair and depression. How else will they make money?

          8. We’re all immigrants according to the Indian tribes.
            “Invaders” and “robbers” is more like it.

        2. The media does not want beauty.

          They always want beauty…IF it supports the narrative. If she was Hillary’s wife the media would be constantly saturated with glamour shots of her.

      2. Knot a problemo @ all, $ame place thee “Magic.Gopher” Neo-American $ocialist $tephan Munchin discovered his x9+ Trillion$ 💲💰💲💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰 to depo$it into the $tawk.Market$ $udden New.Found.Wealth!

      1. Are you knot comfortable in yer Motel 6 “executive.$uite” ? .. Why do you care about “Mega.Man$ion” implo$ion$? $pill.yer.99cent.burrito.bean$.RaL

  19. Tenafly, NJ Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Tri-State Housing Prices Plummet

    https://www.zillow.com/tenafly-nj/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As one broker suggested, “Take the red pill and get what you can get for your house today because todays price is your best price for decades to come.”

  20. Are you on the edge of your seat, anticipating Joe’s veep pick? I can’t believe how this is being hyped up, LOL.

    2. It reminds me of the hype for Segway. Maybe it will turn out like Segway too. I can’t figure out if they’re prepping us for a real surprise, or are just collecting addresses for fundraising.

      1. NYC will always come back. It’s just too important. Remember in the 70s NYC lost 900,000 people in ten years. By 1990, they were back and exceed that number. NYC is nearly as large as LA, Chicago and Houston (the next three largest cities) put together.

        It may take a hard fall but in ten years it’ll be back, if that long.

        1. A near miracle you’re describing won’t prevent NYC housing prices from cratering.

        3. I agree, but with one caveat: work from home, the wild card of this new normal. The city might come back, but if enough high-dollar workers choose to move to a nice SFH with a home office in Fishkill, or Long Island, or even the Stroudsberg, the city will come back poorer.

  22. Oh dear…I’m experiencing cognitive dissonance. You see, the Fed’s Ponzi markets closed a curious shade of green that looks just like red, but that would be impossible given the trillions in Powell Bux being lavished on Wall Street. Then again, the disconnect between the oligarch-looted, COVID-ravaged real economy and Wall Street’s rigged casino has gotten so surreal that something is bound to break at some point, despite the PPTs constant interventions and market-rigging.

    1. I guess the lack of Congressional agreement on further stimulus measures disappointed Mr Market?

      1. What Mitch McConnell wants in the next stimulus bill
        Nick Lichtenberg and Allana Akhtar
        9 hours ago
        FILE PHOTO: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) speaks to the media after a meeting to wrap up work on coronavirus economic aid legislation, during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Washington, U.S., March 22, 2020. REUTERS/Mary F. Calvert
        Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell speaking to reporters after a meeting to wrap up work on coronavirus economic aid legislation. Reuters
        – Mitch McConnell said in May that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s $3 trillion stimulus proposal had “no chance of becoming law.”
        – The Senate majority leader was initially reluctant to support a fourth stimulus bill, advocating waiting to see how well states reopened.
        – Shortly before provisions in the third stimulus bill lapsed in late July, the Senate proposed a $1 trillion package that would cut expanded unemployment benefits and waive coronavirus-related liability for employers, among other things.
        – McConnell has also expressed support for changing federal law to allow states to go bankrupt.
        – Much of the Republican Senate may not want any more aid at all, The Associated Press reported, prompting McConnell to stay on the sidelines.
        …

        1. Kentucky Mickey legalized hemp, to help farmers make “old.fashioned” rope, very useful implement in thee South.

          1. “Eventually we’ll all have to demand that God bail out everybody.”

            Last time around the Fed bailed out Wall Street and threw Main Street under the bus. So far this time is shaping up similarly.

            But suppose whichever Republicrat presidential candidate wins this November decided to take a different approach, and lets lenders take the hit this time around. If the slaves could be freed after the Civil War, why can’t the debt slaves be freed after the pandemic? Imagine the votes either party’s candidate could get by announcing a blanket debt jubilee?

          2. Debt jubilee: will our debts be written off?
            The idea of a “debt jubilee” – general society-wide cancellation of debt – goes back to Biblical times. Could it happen again? And would it really do any good?
            by: Simon Wilson
            28 Mar 2020
            Anthropologist David Graeber: modern-day prophet calling for a debt jubilee
            © Shutterstock

            What is a jubilee?

            It is literally a trumpet, blasting out the news that it’s time to forgive all debt to protect the long-term interests of the whole community and polity. In the Jewish and Christian traditions, a jubilee (the word comes from “yobel”, the Hebrew for “trumpet”) was blown every 50 years to signal the Year of the Lord, in which all personal debts were cancelled.

            According to the Mosaic Law – ie, the law given to Moses by God as set out in the Pentateuch or Written Torah – in each jubilee year each household should recover its absent members; foreclosed land be returned to its former owners; indentured slaves set free and debts written off. For the details of Mosaic property rights and debt, see Leviticus 25.
            Did this actually happen?

            Yes. Until recently, some historians doubted a debt jubilee would have been possible in practice, or that such proclamations could have been enforced, says Michael Hudson, a US academic and author, in The Washington Post. But research by Assyriologists has found that “from the beginning of recorded history in the Near East, it was normal for new rulers to proclaim a debt amnesty upon taking the throne”. Instead of blowing a trumpet, the ruler “raised the sacred torch” to signal the amnesty.

            Such jubilees were not utopian or altruistic: they were a clear-sighted recognition that to maintain social order and political stability – and protect the long-term sustainability of economic life, commerce and peaceful rule – it is necessary to stop credit systems degenerating into the enslavement of debtors by their creditors. That way lie anarchy and violence.
            …

          3. “If debts can’t be paid off, they won’t be – and it might be better for everyone if that can be addressed peacefully.”

            Food for thought there.

          4. Food for thought there.

            Agreed. How about those who intentionally maintained a lower standard of living all these years in order to avoid that situation. What do they get? What they’ve always got?

          5. How about those who intentionally maintained a lower standard of living all these years in order to avoid that situation.

            Aesop is going to have to rewrite some fables.

          6. The idea of a “debt jubilee” – general society-wide cancellation of debt – goes back to Biblical times. Could it happen again?

            This just makes me sick. I don’t owe a dollar to anybody and have lived below my means, yet some debt junkies are going to get all of their debts wiped out? Let me guess – they get to keep cars, and houses and things?

            I’m going to be honest in that I’m seriously thinking of levering up to the hilt on a house or a piece of real estate, putting all of my cash into gold, and just making the payments until perhaps there’s some sort of “debt jubilee” where I can try to take advantage. With 3% down on the house, or whatever the smallest amount possible is, I can start playing a game of “chicken” with the bank to try to get my free sh!t, too. I’m tired of this nonsense where the prudent get screwed. I want some free fawkin’ cheese now.

          7. “…it is necessary to stop credit systems degenerating into the enslavement of debtors by their creditors.”

            Bankruptcy settlements are between the creditors and debtors, not the taxpayers. Lenders need to fail just like restaurants.

        2. CA ears just perked up at the bankruptcy thing. There’s currently about $40 Billion in bonds that could be under the gun and another $20+ Billion waiting to be slaught– er, sold.

          McC just lobbed a smoking grenade into the muni bond pool.

          1. Yeah, Clown.a.fornicate, is gonna have a earthquake, $plit.in.2 & fall into the ocean, … here, eye have a comfortable chair for you, come have a $eat, let’$ watch together. 🍷

          2. States are sovereign entities that can’t declare bankruptcy. Defaulting on promised obligations is their prerogative, however.

          3. “States are sovereign entities that can’t declare bankruptcy.”

            But nut.cracker “Mitch.from.Kentucy”, says he $upports $tates.goin’.bankrupt …

          4. That’s right. Capitalism without a bankruptcy mechanism is like Christianity without heaven and hell.

            Let her rip.

          5. IDEA$
            Why Mitch McConnell Wants States to Go Bankrupt
            The Senate majority leader is prioritizing the Republican Party rather than the American people during this crisis.

            APRIL 25, 2020

            David Frum
            Staff writer at The Atlantic

            American states are abruptly facing their worst fiscal crisis since the Great Depression. The Center on Budget and Polic??y Priorities estimates that more than 25 percent of state revenues have evaporated because of the pandemic. Demands on state health-care budgets, state unemployment systems, and state social-welfare benefits are surging. By the summer of 2022, the state budget gap could total half a trillion dollars.

            States need help. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell does not want to provide it. On The Hugh Hewitt Show on April 23, McConnell proposed another idea. Instead of more federal aid, states should cut their spending by declaring bankruptcy:

            I would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route. It saves some cities. And there’s no good reason for it not to be available. My guess is their first choice would be for the federal government to borrow money from future generations to send it down to them now so they don’t have to do that. That’s not something I’m going to be in favor of.”

            McConnell expanded on the state-bankruptcy concept later that same day in a phone interview with Fox News’s Bill Hemmer:

            We’re not interested in solving their pension problems for them. We’re not interested in rescuing them from bad decisions they’ve made in the past, we’re not going to let them take advantage of this pandemic to solve a lot of problems that they created themselves [with] bad decisions in the past..

          6. $ad, Mitchy.grim.reaper.$ad.

            $tudy Ranks Kentucky Worst State in U.S. to Retire
            By RHONDA MILLER • JAN 15, 2020

            A new study found that Kentucky is the worst state in the nation to retire. The study by the personal finance website WalletHub is based on factors including affordability, health care, and overall quality of life.

            The survey also ranked states on whether they have an elder-friendly labor market, because many older adults continue to work at least part-time to make ends meet.

            Kentucky’s rank of 48 in health care, and 46 in quality of life,

          8. solving their pension problems for them

            Eventually we’ll all have to demand that God bail out everybody.

          10. “Eventually we’ll all have to demand that God bail out everybody”

            There’$ an old, very old religion$ concept: $alvation.

            Wall $treet has been a “True.Believer!” … e$pecially since the election of thee.🍊jesus, eye think the rumor is, thee.🍊.jesus wants to lower ↙⬇⤵ theCapital.gain$ tax tomorrow. Please $upport him!

    1. Joe Biden can’t wait to find out who he picked for VP.

      At least it wasn’t Hillary. That should improve his longevity.

        1. $ticks & $tone$ my break my boner$, but names will never limp my drug$. (or $omething like that. Tweet the lung.suffering.Ra$h.limp.ball$)

  25. Now we know who the DNC is hoping will be the next president, assuming that Sleepy Joe wins and then retires early for “health reasons”

    1. He’ll bee doin’ White.House burnouts in his mid-engine vette with Colin Powell & Jay Leno

    1. There’s $hort.$horts, like the NBA word in the ’70s, then there’$ long $horts, like the one’$ they wear today, down.to.their ankle$.

  27. dtRumpsis groping rises to the next dtRumpsis off$pring level:

    After Rojas and his partner determined the woman was dead, the partner left the room and Rojas turned off his body-worn camera, but the camera caught the alleged fondling in the moments before the officer turned it back on because the devices have two-minute buffering periods to capture what happens right before they are activated, The Associated Press has previously reported.

    Elizabeth Baggett’s 15-year-old son, Preston Sertich, said he had wanted to work in law enforcement until learning about the allegations.

    “To David Rojas: After losing my Mom and processing what you did to her in her time of need, I can’t sleep. All I can think is, ‘Why?!’ How could you do something like that?” Sertich said in a statement. “You had to know what you were doing was undeniably wrong and immoral.”

    $ad, 🍊.jesus. “True.believer”. $ad

    U.S. NEWS
    Los Angeles police officer accused in lawsuit of fondling dead woman’s body
    “Shock and disgust does not even come close to describing the horror,” the woman’s mother said in an emotional statement.

  29. Low inventory is causing headaches for first time buyers in Sacramento. Lots of inflated prices and greed due to bay area buyers paying way over list asking price and multiple offers right now. It is a crazed feeding frenzy to see homes sell in less than a week on the market. Ya know guys, I grew up in Sacramento and it was never this bad time to buy a home. Sacramento used to be considered an armpit to live in California only places worse were Fresno and Bakersfield. Do you think this bad situation will ever change in California?

    1. Borrow $500-750,000 U$ dollars with $99.00 down to buy $tucco & $ticks with cockroaches @ 2.35% … Or, keep paying the landlord & yearly increases.

      Bakersfried+ valley.fevers+ floating bodies in the canal walkabouts

      @ least you can get great lamb for take.out!

  30. Some friends have let slip that they need to relocate to a place with lower rent.

    Would it be best for them to
    1) follow through with the plan to find cheaper digs (they are talking like $2400/mo)?

    2) stop paying and stay put until they have to go?

    3) threaten to squat unless the landlord reduces their rent to what their now-lower income enables them to pay?

    1. Money
      How I lowered my rent by 20% during Covid-19—and what experts say about negotiating with your landlord
      Published Mon, Aug 3 20201:00 PM EDT
      Updated Mon, Aug 3 2020
      1:05 PM EDT
      Andy Hirschfeld, Contributor
      Man talking on phone in living room
      (Photo: Getty | Tom Merton)

      With a pending eviction crisis on the table, due to the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, both renters and landlords are on edge.

      But there may be a silver lining for some tenants who have their leases up for renewal. “Depending on your financial situation, a good time to start renegotiating a lease would be about 30 to 45 days before it ends,” says Gill Chowdhury, an agent with Broker Warburg Realty.

      I took that advice in June, about two months before the end of my lease agreement. While not all landlords are willing to budge, I’m grateful I was able to lower the monthly rent for my shared apartment in Brooklyn, New York by 20% (from $990 to $790).

      Here’s how I did it, along with some expert tips to keep in mind during the negotiation process:
      …

    2. You neglected location, location, location.

      If near you, it’$ knot that far to El Centro or Jacumba

      1. They are music teachers, and the scions of wealthy parents who number among their students live in North County. But perhaps in the COVID-19 Zoom piano lesson era, location, location, location doesn’t matter for retaining students.

        1. in the COVID-19 Zoom piano lesson era

          If Zoom lessons are an adequate substitute why has their income taken a hit? Or has the disposable income used to pay them evaporated?

    3. #2 and #3 will damage their rental history. If an attempt to re-negotiate in good faith with their landlord fails, #1.

  31. Do Treasury yields so near the zero bound destabilize and volatilize substitute asset prices?

    1. Aug 10, 2020, 06:48am EDT
      With All Eyes On Bitcoin, Another Crypto Is Up 500% In The Last Year—And It’s Still Soaring
      Billy Bambrough, Contributor
      Crypto & Blockchain
      I write about how bitcoin, crypto and blockchain can change the world.

      Bitcoin has been pushed back into the spotlight thanks to its recent rally and renewed interest from Wall Street and big-name day traders.

      The bitcoin price, jumping over $12,000 per bitcoin late Sunday evening, has added 30% in the last month—though some smaller cryptocurrencies have made far bigger gains.

      Chainlink’s link token has now added 120% to its price in the last month, climbing to over $13 per token, and building on gains of around 500% during the last year—with some investors saying link is still “wildly undervalued.”
      …

    2. Market Wrap: Bitcoin Stumbles to $11,300; USDC Lending Rates Skyrocket
      Aug 11, 2020 at 20:44 UTC
      Updated Aug 11, 2020 at 20:54 UTC
      CoinDesk 20 Bitcoin Price Index
      Daniel Cawrey
      As the bitcoin market sees red, DeFi opportunities in stablecoin trading have some borrowing rates exploding to double digits.
      – Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $11,342 as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Slipping 4% over the previous 24 hours.
      – Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $11,299-$11,943
      – BTC below its 10-day and 50-day moving averages, a bearish signal for market technicians.

      Heavy sell volumes on spot exchanges such as Coinbase caused a fall in bitcoin’s price to as low as $11,299 Tuesday. Profit-taking is one driver of the dip, according to Chris Thomas, head of digital assets for broker Swissquote. “There are naturally some traders looking to take short term profits here, which is driving us lower,” Thomas told CoinDesk.
      …

      1. Let’s see – I can buy 6 ounces of gold, or one Bitcoin. Gee, it’s such a hard decision I don’t know what to do….

    4. The Best Strategy for This ‘Infinity Dollar’ Market
      Posted by Charles Sizemore | Aug 11, 2020 | Markets
      3 minute, 48 second read
      The Best Strategy for This ‘Infinity Dollar’ Market

      I’ve made no secret of the fact that I think the U.S. stock market is pricey.

      And it’s only gotten pricier over the past five months.

      Outside of the 1990s tech bubble, this is the most expensive the S&P 500 has ever been as measured by the cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) ratio.

      But valuation is a nebulous concept these days. And based on the pricing methods taught in every business school and used by almost every Wall Street analyst, you could make an argument that the correct price for a stock today is infinity.

      I know, I know. Nothing can be worth “infinity dollars.” But in a world of zero interest rates, pricing models spit out numbers like that.

      This gets a little wonky, but let me walk you through it.
      …

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