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This Flood Of Units Has The Potential For A Negative Impact On A Market Struggling To Maintain The Status Quo

A report from Business Insider. “Overall mortgage delinquencies rose a seasonally adjusted 8.22% in the second quarter, according to the MBA. That marked a nine-year high, and a nearly 4% increase from the previous quarter, the largest quarterly jump in the survey’s history. ‘The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on some homeowners’ ability to make their mortgage payments could not be more apparent,’ said Marina Walsh, MBA’s vice president of industry analysis. ‘Certain homeowners, particularly those with FHA loans, will continue to be impacted by this crisis, and delinquencies are likely to stay at elevated levels for the foreseeable future.'”

From The Real Deal. “An alarming share of people holding America’s most accessible and affordable mortgages are behind on payments. Around 16 percent of Federal Housing Administration mortgages were in delinquency in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg. That’s the highest percentage in delinquency going back at least four decades to records starting in 1979.”

“FHA mortgages are generally made to first-time homebuyers and low-income borrowers with credit scores too low to qualify for traditional mortgages. They also allow borrowers to buy with a smaller down payment. Delinquency rose from 9.7 percent in the first quarter. In the second quarter, 6.7 percent of conventional mortgages are delinquent.”

From S&P Global. “The sector boomed in the years following the last financial crisis based on the proposition that some college students will pay more to live in more modern and luxurious settings than the traditional dormitories. Amid the pandemic, landlords hope they can still attract residents regardless of what happens on campus. The wave of supply sapped some landlords’ ability to raise rents. Even before the novel coronavirus affected operations, the delinquency rate for student housing loans in CMBS stood at 3.8% in April, compared to 1.6% for CMBS loans across property sectors, Morningstar said. In May, following widespread campus closures, student housing delinquencies shot up to 9.5%.”

“If smaller and financially weaker student housing owners face similar leasing challenges as the new school year progresses, they may reach out to loan servicers seeking modifications, Morningstar Senior Vice President Gwen Roush said. ‘I think the servicers are expecting that to happen,’ she added.”

From Bisnow New York City. “Columbia University’s undergraduate courses will be held entirely online for the fall semester. The residential market has been hit hard by the university’s closing. Apartment rents have dropped between 16% and 20% in the neighborhood between August 2019 and this month, MNS Senior Vice President for New Development Iliana Acevedo said.”

The Loyola Phoenix in Illinois. “Loyola officials project at least a $50 million revenue loss for the upcoming year, but will reduce this year’s costs by $44 million through staff salary cuts and hiring freezes, among other things, officials said. Revenue loss could double if enough first-years or returning students withdraw or take a gap year, according to the email, obtained by The Phoenix.”

From Yahoo Finance. “‘The rise of [building] multifamily units may lead to an oversupply of apartment buildings, especially in city centers given the evident recent shift in consumer preference for single-family homes in the suburbs,’ said a statement by Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “Developers are on track to deliver half as many apartments in metro Denver this year as they did last year, marking the second-largest drop off in new apartment construction of any major metro area, according to a report from RENTCafé and Yardi Matrix. As people try to socially distance, they are leaving more densely populated areas, contributing to higher vacancies and lower rents in places like New York City and San Francisco. The region’s apartment construction is heavily concentrated in central Denver rather than the suburbs.”

“The region had a big drop in apartment construction in 2017, only to see completions come roaring back in 2018. Earlier this summer, Apartment Insights, a local firm, counted 22,000 apartments as under construction in the Denver area with 40,000 in the planning pipeline.”

The American Statesman in Texas. “Central Texas’ apartment market is experiencing something it hasn’t seen in 10 years: a decline in rents and occupancy rates. The shift — though not dramatic — has tilted the market a bit in favor of tenants, said real estate consultant Charles Heimsath, who tracks the apartment market in the five-county Austin metro area. That shift has allowed some renters to take advantage of special rates and discounts that haven’t been seen in years in the Austin market, where rents as recently as December had soared to record highs.”

“Brian Carberry, managing editor of Apartment Guide, said this is typically the time of year when prices begin to rise due to summer demand. ‘There may be certain in-demand neighborhoods in the city where prices have remained high, however, as a whole prices are coming down,’ Carberry said of the Austin market.”

“More than 29,000 apartment units in 120 projects are under construction, with more than 14,000 units due to be completed over the next 12 months, according to Robin Davis, owner of Austin Investor Interests. In addition, there are 37,800 units in the pipeline awaiting a permit or groundbreaking, Davis reports. ‘This current and proposed flood of units has the potential for a negative impact on a market that is currently struggling to maintain the status quo,’ Davis said.”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “The coronavirus pandemic has ravaged San Francisco’s neighborhoods, leaving boarded-up storefronts and empty apartments. Thousands of tenants across the city are using the deteriorating rental market as an opportunity to negotiate double-digit rent reductions. A recent report from Zillow found that the inventory of available apartments is up 96% over a year ago. Some landlords are cutting rent by 10% to 20% and offering gift cards, months of free rent or cash in exchange for renters signing a yearlong lease.”

“‘You are seeing a tremendous amount of downward pressure on rents in the city due to rising vacancy,’ said Zillow economist Joshua Clark. ‘There are some scary indicators if you are a landlord. The inventory chart is astonishing — it’s a straight line up. That is a huge clue that the exodus is happening — people are actually moving out of the city.'”

“Before approaching her landlord, Hayes Valley resident L.B. Hernandez researched the market, getting a sense of how far rents had fallen and how desperate property owners were to attract or retain tenants. To her shock, her landlord offered two attractive options: an early, penalty-free lease termination or a 20% reduction in rent, from $2,000 to $1,600, for signing a new lease. She decided to stay and became the lease negotiation expert among her friends.”

“‘I was riding this high, giving everyone tips on how to approach their landlords,’ she said. ‘It’s a renters’ economy. There are so many empty units. (Landlords) need us more than we need them.'”

“The vacancy rate among Apartment Association member properties is now 11.5%, four times what it was prior to the pandemic, said Charley Goss, government affairs manager for the organization. ‘People are having a tough time renting units out,’ Goss said. ‘Our members are nervous. All eyes have been on Congress, hoping for a relief package.'”

“The situation has been a nightmare for some small landlords, said Janan New, executive director of the Apartment Association. Panzer, who manages more than 600 units across the city, said the past few months have been a rude awakening. ‘Being a landlord doesn’t mean you always win,’ he said. ‘I have to remind my clients of that. That is part of the risk of our business.'”

From Miami Today in Florida. “A non-pandemic slowdown is fewer international homebuyers, from 42% of all buyers in 2016 to 25% in 2019, as currency exchange rates made home buys here relatively more expensive. EWM’s report is clear: currency exchange rate shifts from June 2019 to June 2020 made it 65.7% more expensive for an Argentine to buy here, a Brazilian 41.1%, a Chilean 21.2%, a Mexican 20%, a Colombian 16.5%, a Russian 11.9%, and an EU resident 1.2%. These were prime buyers when local brokers organized sales missions abroad to sell condos before they were even built.”

“That shift may show why new luxury condos here, according to the report, now sell at just 84% of original price. The report says what triggers luxury condo sales today is prices cut to levels buyers find appropriate. No more bidding up the price before new condos are ever occupied.”

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This Post Has 131 Comments

  1. Tampa, FL Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Guf Coast Housing Market Turns Toxic On Rampant Appraisal And Mortgage Fraud

    https://www.zillow.com/tampa-fl-33617/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a leading economist advises, “Mortgage debt is the most toxic and damaging debt of all. Avoid it at all costs.”

  2. ‘Central Texas’ apartment market is experiencing something it hasn’t seen in 10 years: a decline in rents and occupancy rates’

    This is just a lie. Austin has been oversupplied and rents have been falling for years. Like most cities.

    1. Austin population is around 1.04M for 2019 (round down to 1M). 3% growth seems reasonable – until you understand all the folks in their 20’s becoming roommates or moving back with their parents, fewer people going to UT and other schools in person, remote work.

      2020+2021 (just analytical not personal pain) to see what happens to a city.

      —-
      “More than 29,000 apartment units in 120 projects are under construction, with more than 14,000 units due to be completed over the next 12 months, according to Robin Davis, owner of Austin Investor Interests. In addition, there are 37,800 units in the pipeline awaiting a permit or groundbreaking, Davis reports. ‘This current and proposed flood of units has the potential for a negative impact on a market that is currently struggling to maintain the status quo,’ Davis said.”

        1. just read the tax plan. How is this even possibly legal if you have left the state.
          —————-
          The wealth tax bill is also structured in such a way CA wealthy residents who leave still
          have to pay the extreme wealth tax on a fraction of their wealth for up to 10 years: they pay tax
          on 90% of their wealth the year after they leave, on 80% 2 years after they’ve left, .. , on 10% 9
          years after they’ve left, 0% 10 years or more after they’ve left.

          1. Other states would have to sign reciprocity agreements to enforce it. Of course, if you visit Clownifornia they could arrest you. So don’t go there.

          2. > How is this even possibly legal if you have left the state.

            The California Franchise Board has a long history of going after people who moved out of state then made it big, and being rather tenacious about it.

        2. Rich people aren’t going to be leaving California anytime soon. Million dollar California houses burn all the time and are immediately rebuilt. Million dollar homes are washed away in floods and mudslides all the time and are immediately rebuilt. And then there are earthquakes. Dealing with extra issues is just the price people are more than willing to pay to live on the gold coast.

          1. Natural disasters are not the reason people leave.

            Even the wealthy can be overtaxed. Witness how business after business has pulled up its stakes and relocated elsewhere, especially places like Texas.

            Even Hollywood has quietly moved moved most of its production out of state, to cheaper places like Canada or Georgia.

            California’s tax grab can go too far, even for the very wealthy. And then there is the rising anarchy and lawlessness.

            But what matters more is the middle class. If they leave in droves, as they are doing now, it will put the state into a bind.

          2. The bill is written to sound like it’s not enough of an inconvenience to make the people it initially targets to move, but many of those people are likely to be the founders and owners of companies.

            Don’t underestimate how much those people will mentally chafe at knowing they are being singled out and targeted, and will consider how much money they can save/make by moving the entire company out of California. If they are thinking they are going to become a lot richer, that 14+ % California Tax burden will have them putting a number on moving to Texas, Washington or some other place with no state income tax, etc.

  3. ‘I was riding this high, giving everyone tips on how to approach their landlords…It’s a renters’ economy. There are so many empty units. (Landlords) need us more than we need them’

    That’s the spirit!

  4. BTW, after leveling out for a couple days, the crater is pouring in again.

    ‘An alarming share of people holding America’s most accessible and affordable mortgages are behind on payments. Around 16 percent of Federal Housing Administration mortgages were in delinquency in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg. That’s the highest percentage in delinquency going back at least four decades to records starting in 1979’

    The highest ever.

    ‘FHA mortgages are generally made to first-time homebuyers and low-income borrowers with credit scores too low to qualify for traditional mortgages. They also allow borrowers to buy with a smaller down payment’

    Subprime blew up this spring. This is a credit event.

    2. “FHA mortgages are generally made to first-time home buyers and low-income borrowers with credit scores too low to qualify for traditional mortgages.”

      These borrowers are likely among those doing manual labor for employment and unable to work from home, and they probably lack $400 for an emergency. You have to wonder how many of them received the $600 per week and still defaulted on their mortgage?

    2. They should go back to Reddit, or better yet, the city-data forums with the rest of the lying Realtors.

      “The region’s apartment construction is heavily concentrated in central Denver rather than the suburbs.”

      55 Cook Street (Cherry Creek) and the Theo Building at 9th Ave and Colorado Blvd are some of the “luxury” buildings I worked in doing electrical new construction in 2017-2018.

      A few years later, they’re still half empty.

    3. Also, I shouldn’t have to say this, but don’t feed the trolls.

      Longtime posters are pretty adept at spotting the REIC trolls and shutting them down like the Ft. Collins residents who gave a fitting reception to the BLM-Antifa scum who oozed into their neighborhood looking to stir up trouble.

  7. Around 16 percent of Federal Housing Administration mortgages were in delinquency in the second quarter…Delinquency rose from 9.7 percent in the first quarter. In the second quarter, 6.7 percent of conventional mortgages are delinquent’

    Worser.

    ‘The wave of supply sapped some landlords’ ability to raise rents. Even before the novel coronavirus affected operations, the delinquency rate for student housing loans in CMBS stood at 3.8% in April, compared to 1.6% for CMBS loans across property sectors, Morningstar said. In May, following widespread campus closures, student housing delinquencies shot up to 9.5%’

    Is that a lot?

    1. “Around 16 percent of Federal Housing Administration mortgages were in delinquency in the second quarter…”

      Is this what is meant by “blood in the streets” or not quite yet?

          1. Anything to avoid price discovery. Falling prices are the enemy of the FED and their oligarch buddies.

  8. ‘The rise of [building] multifamily units may lead to an oversupply of apartment buildings’

    You’re a few years late, but that’s the spirit Larry!

    1. A reader sent this in:

      ‘California’s solution to a housing crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic is to let tenants live rent-free and force taxpayers to pay five months of back rent payments to help provide landlord relief from the state’s rent payment moratorium. This moratorium was signed by Governor Gavin Newsom (D) on June 1, 2020, and then he extended the moratorium until July 28, 2020. California is one of 25 states that imposed rent moratoriums on landlords in response to the coronavirus pandemic. However, on May 1, 2020, California State Senator Lena Gonzalez (D – Long Beach) introduced SB 1410 into the State Legislature. If passed, the bill will wreak havoc on the state’s budget for at least the next 15 years.’

      ‘SB 1410 offers tenants the opportunity to defer rent payments until California’s state of emergency is rescinded. In the interim, these tenants will be allowed to continue to occupy their lessors’ units completely rent free. Under this legislation, every single landlord in California is legally obliged to offer the rent deferment to tenants. If the tenant accepts, all of the tenant’s back rent payments are immediately transferred to the government of California. In exchange, landlords will receive a transferable tax credit equal to the amount of the tenant’s unpaid rent. Landlords may redeem or sell the tax credits anytime between January 1, 2024 – January 1, 2034. Over the same 10-year span, the tenant will supposedly slowly repay the debt owed to the state.’

      ‘After California assumes the debt obligation, it will be serviced with taxpayer funds. Once landlords begin reclaiming their tax credits in early 2024, California’s tax revenue will plummet. To correct the imbalance, the state plans to shift the tax burden onto all taxpayers, whether or not they are renters, through higher income, real estate development, sales, and excise taxes. The estimated cost of SB 1410 is at least $10 billion.’

      ‘Senator Gonzales asserts that the bill will “provide much-needed immediate assistance to both tenants and property owners.” However, SB 1410 only focuses on alleviating the tenants’ back rent payments. Forcing landlords to house tenants without immediate compensation puts lessors into a financially strenuous position. The tax credits offered four years post hoc does not address this month’s lost operating cash flow. Landlords who experience a fall in operating income will be forced to service existing debts and neglect building maintenance. Service contracts will be cut and maintenance staff fired. The result will be more unemployment, and vicious cycle that will increase the number of people unable to pay rent due to the coronavirus pandemic.’

      https://www.cagw.org/thewastewatcher/californias-housing-bill-will-plague-states-budget-years

      You guys got a real mickey mouse operation out there.

      2. “…‘SB 1410 offers tenants the opportunity to defer rent payments until California’s state of emergency is rescinded….”

        Wonder out loud if such a scheme will be eventually extended to CRE.

        After all, if your going to kill the economy why not go all out?

      3. redeem or sell the tax credits anytime between January 1, 2024 – January 1, 2034

        Crushing landlords and tenants at the same time.

      4. You guys got a real mickey mouse operation out there.

        While they’re at it, why not make admission to Disneyland free?

      6. “the tenant’s back rent payments are immediately transferred to the government of California. …Over the same 10-year span, the tenant will supposedly slowly repay the debt owed to the state.”
        =======

        So, gov loans the money to the tenant to pay the rent, then tenant pays off the gov. I predicted this exact scenario a couple weeks ago. Now let’s see if they go further and eventually forgive the debt altogether (which I had also predicted).

        1. eventually forgive the debt

          Would the landlord then still have to wait to get their rent in three or thirteen years? By that time many of them won’t have tax liabilities to use the credits on.

          1. That’s a good question. If the pile of rent is forgiven and the LL has no more taxes to use a credit for, then I guess the money just disappears. (?)

          2. That’s where Dr. Jerome Powell comes in, and adds a new direct lending facility to landlords (0% interest) for 5 years.

  9. Carolina Beach, NC Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Coastal Property Market Turns Toxic On Rampant Mortgage Fraud

    https://www.zillow.com/carolina-beach-nc/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    A noted economist stated, “A housing ‘recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.”

  10. From the Denver Post piece: “Once it became evident late last year that rent growth was slowing and more units were slated for delivery, many projects stopped both because they couldn’t get construction financing and also because there were insufficient construction crews available. Prices for construction also rose at almost 5% a month, so the whole industry slowed down,” he said in an email.

    I recall the subs disappeared after getting stiffed when the last rodeo ended because the developers couldn’t get the next disbursement on their construction loans. Partially built projects with pallets of building materials strewn everywhere were abandoned en-masse. They couldn’t even afford a security guard.

      1. Few reporters have ever had an entrepreneurial experience.

        Back when I was a journeyman window cleaner and the liability insurance rates more than doubled overnight a funny thing happened—property managers cut their window cleaning schedule from 4x to 2x per year, and suddenly there were too many window cleaners! It was “dog eat dog” ugly as they underbid each other while expenses were rising. Then the pretty girlfriend skipped; it was a good dose of reality.

        1. It was “dog eat dog” ugly as they underbid each other while expenses were rising. Then the pretty girlfriend skipped; it was a good dose of reality.

          “When poverty walks in the door, love flies out the window.”

          1. And times were supposedly great too, Volcker’s 1981-82 recession was behind us, supply side (trickle down?) economics were all the rage, and the Japanese could do no wrong. But it was the beginning of the end for the sole proprietors like me; I couldn’t see it because the proverbial trees were in the way.

  11. “‘Being a landlord doesn’t mean you always win,’ he said. ‘I have to remind my clients of that. That is part of the risk of our business.’”

    They told me that buying real estate and renting it out was a sure path to riches! They said that real estate always goes up!!

  12. ‘There are some scary indicators if you are a landlord. The inventory chart is astonishing — it’s a straight line up. That is a huge clue that the exodus is happening — people are actually moving out of the city.’

    Last summer I visited an old friend in SF. From her description, it sounded like a city on the brink, and they already were on the verge of leaving.

    COVID-19 pushed it over.

    1. Another example – Real estate in Toronto is divided into zones. Condo units up for rental are +80% (or about 3400) y/y – with lead rate dropping -9%.

      They cannot all be AirBnB – so folks are not renewing or breaking leases and moving in with roommates or their parents

      C01 – Downtown, Entertainment District, CityPlace, Liberty Village
      Condo rentals listed: 8,152 (+80% vs. Q2 2019)
      Avg. lease rate: $2,432 (-9% vs. Q2 2019)

  13. ‘California’s solution to a housing crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic is to let tenants live rent-free and force taxpayers to pay five months of back rent payments to help provide landlord relief from the state’s rent payment moratorium. This moratorium was signed by Governor Gavin Newsom (D) on June 1, 2020, and then he extended the moratorium until July 28, 2020. California is one of 25 states that imposed rent moratoriums on landlords in response to the coronavirus pandemic. However, on May 1, 2020, California State Senator Lena Gonzalez (D – Long Beach) introduced SB 1410 into the State Legislature. If passed, the bill will wreak havoc on the state’s budget for at least the next 15 years.’

    So let me get this straight: This bill would force Californians with no interest or stake in the rental housing market as either landlord or tenant to reimburse renters and landlords for their investment misfortunes under COVID-19? And would wreck the state budget for 15 years?

    Where is the downside?

  14. “(This is what the Radical Left Democrats do. Two can play the same game, and we have to start playing it now!)”

    President Trump calls for boycott of Goodyear after company calls ‘MAGA’ attire ‘unacceptable’

    By Shawn Wheat
    Published: Aug. 19, 2020 at 11:26 AM EDT|Updated: 1 hour ago
    TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) – President Donald Trump says not to buy Goodyear Tires after a slide showing a ban on MAGA apparel was leaked from a company diversity training.

    President Donald Trump took to Twitter on Wednesday urging his followers to not buy Goodyear Tires due to a ban on his Make America Great Again apparel inside their factories.

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump

    Don’t buy GOODYEAR TIRES – They announced a BAN ON MAGA HATS. Get better tires for far less! (This is what the Radical Left Democrats do. Two can play the same game, and we have to start playing it now!).
    10:33 AM · Aug 19, 2020

    https://www.abc12.com/2020/08/19/trump-says-not-to-buy-goodyear-tires/

    1. I wonder how that new set of Firestone tires will look on my truck?

      Goodyear employee shares photo of company’s zero-tolerance policy, calls it ‘discriminatory’

      Stephen Sorace
      August 19, 2020

      The photo shared to social media after a recent diversity training session at the plant in Topeka showed a Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company slide with two categories: Acceptable and Unacceptable, WIBW-TV first reported.

      Under “Acceptable” were Black Lives Matter (BLM) and Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender Pride (LGBT).

      Under “Unacceptable” were Blue Lives Matter, All Lives Matter, MAGA and politically affiliated slogans or material.

      The employee questioned why the company was dictating that employees can wear only certain things, saying that if the company’s goal is equality these movements and causes should be treated equally, otherwise it’s “discrimination.”

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goodyear-employee-shares-photo-company-143321824.html

    2. Can’t remember the last time I bought a set of Badyears.

      I am grateful that I’m not subject to woke torture like this where I work. It’s amazing and disturbing how Orwellian Corporate America has become.

      1. “that new set of Firestone tires”

        I’m buying some this week.

        And unlike loanowners, I’ll be paying cash. Do loanowners even replace tires? Or do they just replace the whole vehicle when the tires wear out any “pay” for it with the cash-out refi?

      2. It’s amazing and disturbing how Orwellian Corporate America has become.

        Not really. Globalists gonna globe.

      3. “It’s amazing and disturbing how Orwellian Corporate America has become.”

        Government too! And there’s no guilt or shame when they cut short career employees and phuc-up things that were functioning for decades.

      1. So Goodyear completely glosses over the issue of why employees at one of its facilities were forced to sit through that presentation. They say the slide in question didn’t come from Goodyear corporate, but if this is what they are using to “educate” their employees and set forth company policy (another point they gloss over), then they are simply being weasels in evading corporate responsibility for pushing one point of view (BLM is good and approved) while MAGA attire is banned.

        1. “(BLM is good and approved) while MAGA attire is banned.”

          That sums it up nicely and I completely agree with president Trump…

          “Don’t buy GOODYEAR TIRES – They announced a BAN ON MAGA HATS. Get better tires for far less! (This is what the Radical Left Democrats do. Two can play the same game, and we have to start playing it now!).”

          Qu’est-ce que c’est? Doxing?

          1. I’ve used Goodyear all-season tires on our cars with great confidence; while not long lasting, they perform really well on ice, snow and rain with their asymmetrical pattern and highly sipped tread. Looks like I’ll have to expand my tire research. Sad. Really sad.

        2. They say the slide in question didn’t come from Goodyear corporate

          I’ll bet it came from Goodyear HR, which is “Corporate”. I’m sure the HR people have had the riot act read to them and were probably told to be more discrete next time.

          Meanwhile, their denial where they really didn’t deny anything came out pretty weak.

          As for buying “American”, there are other brands who make tires in the US.

  15. Our Santa Clara campus was hit by a scheduled black out at 2PM yesterday afternoon. Rather than run generators, the shut down all the R&D server labs. And they are still down.

    Thanks Gov. Newsome!

      1. Just the R&D lab. Solaris has to be able to run on bare metal, that’s what our customers use, so we have to test on it. Can’t do that on AWS or Azure. We do a lot of vitualization too (LDOMs and Zones), but if the host goes down …

    2. HQ is in Santa Clara but I think its moving to a new building so maybe it was down anyway ? We build hardware for servers and I think the main computers are in Vegas baby. They “tell me” the big cloud building has higher priority for power than anything else around there including hospitals ?

      1. The systems I refer to are not part of Global IT. They are separate, for R&D use only. We were notified that the labs were going down yesterday, with about 2 hours notice, due to the blackout, so no, it wasn’t a move (we moved them last year).

  17. WaPo is running a puff piece on Comma-la and her lawyer husband. Good. I hope he stands beside her at every campaign event and in every TV ad.

        1. Harris’ ancestors

          Do you sincerely believe that it is right to hold someone of our generation responsible for what one of their possible distant ancestors did, and then further embellish it with “enthusiastically beat”?

          I don’t. That’s why I don’t agree with the reparations movement. All my ancestors did, as far as I know, was to kill a bunch of English knights in the Highlands, and later rob the Bank of England.

          1. My daughter’s boyfriend recently told me that some of his ancestors were professional hit men.

    1. It’s probably worth dollar cost averaging into PMs. But if my theory about gold reacting to the short-lived Russian vaccine is correct, then we can expect a much bigger reaction when there’s real medical news. I’m giving it 4-6 weeks.

  20. Recently I mentioned that we stayed with friends last summer in their home in a rural area west of Sac, outside Vacaville. We thought it was lovely, but felt somewhat concerned about fire risk, given the setting in hot, dry hills. The guy maintained a huge fire break around the home, as did the neighbors, to mitigate the risk.

    Got word this morning that their place burned to the ground within the last 24 hours. They got out with a few possessions and their lives.

    2. “We thought it was lovely, but felt somewhat concerned about fire risk, given the setting in hot, dry hills.”

      Check.

      “The guy maintained a huge fire break around the home, as did the neighbors, to mitigate the risk.”

      Which the dry gale-force wind carrying a full-load of burning embers readily blew across – as it always will do in one time or another, at one place or another Sorry, but this time it was your friend’s turn.

      There seems to be no learning curve to be found anywhere.

      1. My wife’s comment, following an expression of shock and consternation,
        was a version of, “There, but by the grace of God, go we.”

    3. Got word this morning that their place burned to the ground within the last 24 hours. They got out with a few possessions and their lives.

      Sounds like a good time to take their insurance check and move somewhere else.

      An old colleague from HP got to watch his house burn to the ground near Rancho Bernardo some years ago.

      1. We used to live within walking distance of HP in RB. Now live a mile south.

        The Witch Creek fire in 2007 stopped one neighborhood to the north of us. No homes burned in our hood, but many did nearby.

        This year the weather is setting up similarly to that of 2007.

    1. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      Markets volatility
      Investors increasingly unsettled by ‘overvalued’ markets
      Fund managers are upbeat even as they fret about prices of stocks, bonds and gold
      Cash balances reported by fund managers in a Bank of America survey have slipped, indicating more money has been put to work in riskier markets
      © AP
      Adam Samson in London yesterday

      Investors are worried that the sharp rally across asset classes since the darkest days of the coronavirus crisis has left them “overvalued”, a key survey has shown.

      Fund managers now see a portfolio with equal holdings of stocks, bonds and gold as the most expensive since 2008, according to the latest monthly Bank of America poll of investors managing almost $500bn of assets.

      Unease over valuations comes as unprecedented stimulus measures by central banks, from the Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, has helped to lift many assets that had endured intense strain during the early days of the crisis this spring. Extra spending by governments has provided a further boost.

      Nearly 80 per cent of investors polled by BofA expect stronger economic growth ahead — the highest proportion since December 2009 — while 57 per cent predict higher profits.

      Cash balances reported by fund managers in the survey have slipped, indicating more money has been put to work in riskier markets. But cash still represents 4.6 per cent of portfolios, comfortably above the 4 per cent level that BofA analysts think signals the emergence of “greed” in market behaviour. “We do not think positioning is dangerously bullish,” they said.

      Developed and emerging market stocks tracked by MSCI’s broad All-World index have shot higher by more than 50 per cent since the lows in March to shed nearly all of the losses recorded during the pandemic.

      Wall Street stocks have been among the top performers. A rally in America’s technology titans propelled the benchmark S&P 500 index into record territory in early trading on Tuesday, higher than its previous peak in February.

      The strong price gains have come even as the global economy has entered a deep recession, putting heavy pressure on corporate profits.
      …

    2. Key Words
      ‘A tale told by an idiot’ — CNBC’s Jim Cramer urges investors not to be fooled by new highs in the stock market
      Published: Aug. 19, 2020 at 12:44 p.m. ET
      By Shawn Langlois

      The S&P’s new highs are a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing about the hardship of millions of people on food stamps, or the millions about to be fired from service jobs, or the homeless, or the people who are just huddled at home waiting for the vaccine, which currently feels a lot like waiting for Godot.

      That’s CNBC’s Jim Cramer summoning his inner Samuel Beckett to talk about the disconnect between equities and the harsh reality of what’s going on in the U.S. economy.

      “We’ve had a magnificent V-shaped recovery in the stock market, but the stock market’s not a great reflection of the broader economy anymore,” Cramer said.
      …

      1. Gotta give Cramer credit: after his “Bear Stearns is fine!” call in 2008 probably bankrupted thousands of Bear Stearns stockholders who took his “advice,” he’s become more cautious about willfully telling retail investor muppets to buy into these Ponzi markets, especially when the only thing propping them up is Fed funny money.

        1. Cramer has been schooled in the ways of the Fed’s bubble support activities along with the rest of us.

    3. Dumb question of the day:

      Given that the Fed’s permanently levitating Ponzi markets always go up, what could all of negative signs in the list of today’s asset price changes posted below possibly mean?

      Dow 27,692.88 -85.19 -0.31%
      S&P 500 3,374.85 -14.93 -0.44%
      Nasdaq 11,146.46 -64.38 -0.57%
      GlobalDow 3,041.54 -12.02 -0.39%
      Gold 1,956.60 -13.70 -0.70%
      Oil 42.56 -0.37 -0.86%

    4. Is the Fed developing a case of cold feet over the efficacy of its massively distortionary market interventions?

      1. The Financial Times
        Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
        Markets Briefing Equities
        Stocks slip on uncertainty over future Fed policy
        Asia-Pacific markets lower as US central bank backs away from unconventional measures
        Hong Kong stocks were down from recent highs on Thursday as investors in Asia worried about what steps policymakers were planning to support the ailing US economy
        © Bloomberg
        Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong 2 hours ago

        Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region followed Wall Street lower on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve indicated it had no immediate plan to take unconventional measures to support market stability.

        Japan’s Topix index fell 0.4 per cent while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 lost 1 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.7 per cent. China’s CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks fell 0.8 per cent in early trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.4 per cent.

        The S&P 500 ended down 0.4 per cent on Wednesday. The US stock benchmark has staged a sharp rebound in recent months despite signs of continued economic damage from the pandemic. On Tuesday it notched a record closing high, wiping out the entirety of losses incurred earlier in the year.

        But Thursday’s fall in Asian stocks came after the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s late July meeting noting that uncertainty over the path of the economy was “very elevated”, with fiscal support waning.

        The minutes offered nothing to those hoping for more unconventional measures to maintain loose financial conditions — such as explicit guidance on the future path of the federal funds rate or yield curve control, in which policymakers set targets for certain Treasury yields.

        “Many participants judged that yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment but should remain an option that the committee could reassess in the future if circumstances changed markedly,” the minutes said.

        Futures tipped US stocks to lose further ground when Wall Street opened later in the day, with the S&P 500 expected to drop 0.5 per cent. The FTSE 100 was expected to shed 1 per cent.

        “Officials are worried about the potential costs of yield curve control,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “However, should yields start to rise more significantly . . . pushing up mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, this option could be up for more discussion.”
        …

        1. “Many participants judged that yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment but should remain an option that the committee could reassess in the future if circumstances changed markedly,” the minutes said.

          Translation: “Oh, sh!t, look what we’ve created.”

  22. Around 16 percent of Federal Housing Administration mortgages were in delinquency in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg.

    Cue the usual “Nobody could’ve seen this coming” comments from the REIC shills.

  23. Amid the pandemic, landlords hope they can still attract residents regardless of what happens on campus.

    Where does the MSM find talentless scribblers to write such drek? It’s self-evident that landlords’ ability to fill their overpriced student housing is directly contingent on a) the ability of students; and b) the ability of student’s parent(s) to pay for said housing.

  24. DJT less than hour ago:

    “We are getting out of the endless war”

    Who votes against getting out of endless war? LOL@ I worked for that money churning war machine for 3-1/2 years. Then I was so disgusted with myself I left and got a real job.

    2. “We are getting out of the endless war”

      That’s just election year hype. Nov 5th, it’ll be business as usual.

  25. EWM’s report is clear: currency exchange rate shifts from June 2019 to June 2020 made it 65.7% more expensive for an Argentine to buy here, a Brazilian 41.1%, a Chilean 21.2%, a Mexican 20%, a Colombian 16.5%, a Russian 11.9%, and an EU resident 1.2%.

    I grieve for the money launderers, embezzlers, drug dealers, and organized crime figures who will be unable to grab their piece of the American Dream.

  28. Youth – wasted on the young …

    “Young investors have a huge stomach for risk right now, data suggests”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/young-investors-have-a-huge-stomach-for-risk-right-now-data-suggests-194739891.html

    (snippers)

    “Millennial and Gen Z investors are willing to stomach far more risk than they have in the past, according to fresh data from E*Trade. The company’s quarterly investors survey found that over half of these younger investors indicated that their risk tolerance has increased since coronavirus, far higher than other groups.

    “Retail investors — regular people with portfolios, rather than pros — have streamed into the market since the S&P 500 index plunged 30% in late March off its February peak. And as the S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed back to a new all-time high this week, powered largely by tech stocks, these aggressive investors have made a lot of money as big winners of the rally.

    “E*Trade’s survey, which polled 873 investors, found that 51% of young investors have increased risk tolerance — 23 percentage points higher than the total population. Furthermore, this cohort is getting out of cash, trading more, and full of optimism where the market is concerned. Around 34% of investors under age 34 have moved out of cash and into the market, which is 15 percentage points higher than the total population.”

    😁

    “They’re also trading more frequently, with 51% of investors under 34 trading equities more since the pandemic began, and 46% saying they’re trading derivatives more frequently.”

    Trading derivatives- an excellent way to lose your ass. Moving on …

    “Based on the survey, only 30% of the total client base is trading more, and even fewer (22%) are trading more derivatives, making the outsized gains particular to young people.

    “And while E*Trade said that just 9% of young investors surveyed said their portfolios had fully recovered, half expected a full recovery in six months, compared to just a third of the total. However, it’s important to note the date of the survey: between July 1 and July 9. Since then, the S&P 500 has flown back up to a record high, surpassing the pre-Covid peak in late February.”

    Stay tuned …

  29. Breitbart – AUGUST 19, 2020

    Wednesday, Trump Organization executive vice president Donald Trump, Jr., son of President Donald Trump, had a message for Democrats that decry the current elections process while also supporting the ongoing violent protests that have included looting and rioting across the country:

    “If you can loot in person, you can vote in person.”

    2. “If you can loot in person, you can vote in person.”

      $o why did donnie.jr’$ daddy, “Don.thee.Con” & his Euro.Hoe mail.in their Florida.ballots?

      1. The real question is, how many times did, “donnie.jr’$ daddy” vote? Votes are not like emoticons.

      2. $o why did donnie.jr’$ daddy, “Don.thee.Con” & his Euro.Hoe mail.in their Florida.ballots?

        Tu quoque fallacy

  30. Risks of Commodity ETFs Highlighted in U.S. Oil Fund’s Travails

    Securities regulators are zeroing in on fund’s overhaul after oil crashed earlier this year

    ‘Many investors had already bought shares seeking fast gains without realizing how the fund’s futures trading worked, resulting in outsize losses. “It was a big chunk of my savings,” said Matthew Cheung, one of the plaintiffs in the E*Trade lawsuit.’

    ‘A 38-year-old living in Nashua, N.H., he purchased some cash-settled oil futures on April 20 that had a total value of roughly $7,000. The futures turned negative, and he was unable to trade through E*Trade’s platform. When the futures closed at minus $37.63 a barrel, Mr. Cheung was eventually told he owed more than $100,000, and it was deducted from his account.’

    “It was a lot of confusion and a lot of shock,” he said.’

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/risks-of-commodity-etfs-highlighted-in-u-s-oil-funds-travails-11597858322

    1. The worst part of that article is where he says “there’s nothing you can do” and “My doctor can’t do anything.”

      If big pharma and the anti-Trumpers really cared about people, there IS something the doctors could do: they could write a prescription for HCQ. Or even write a prescription for Ivermectin off-label (oh, you must have scabies, how sad). Even now, you can take Vitamins C and D. Take quercetin and zinc. Take elderberry at the beginning.

      1. The worst part of that article is where he says “there’s nothing you can do” and “My doctor can’t do anything.”

        Where I’m at the best doctors are probably veterinarians. Anything serious, and you drive to Seattle.

    2. “Once you realize you have a virus.👾that could kill you and there’s nothing anybody can do about it, you live in constant fear.”

      “Eyes wonder iffin’ he was able to comfort his fears bye listening every.day to the Ra$h.Limpball$ radio $how:

      “📢🎤…it’s just the common.cold folks! ”

      In ‘Merika, 175,000+ dead.humans in x5 months …👾… munch, munch, munch … ($till.$preading!)

      1. How many of those “175,000+ dead” were killed by something else, but tested positive post mortem and were thrown on the “COVID-19 death” heap? What’s the real number of dead from the virus?

        2. What’s the real number of dead from the virus? Estimates will improve over time. Dead bodies being somewhat difficult to conceal, at least we will ultimately have a vague idea of how many died during this pandemic, from whatever cause. The other statistics are more prone to manipulation. I did some deep diving with the CDC records on deaths under age 18: About 180 have died of influenza not COVID-19, as of mid-May. About 73 had died of COVID-19 as of early August 2020. These two figures are never put on the same page, for some odd reason.

          2. “The California Department of Public Health said this person was between ages 12 and 17 and had underlying conditions, but would not release further information due to patient confidentiality.”

            There’s certainly a vulnerable cohort within the population, and they likely know who they are and need to take additional measures to protect themselves.

          3. a vulnerable cohort within the population The cohort under age 18 is by far the least vulnerable, yet somehow draws the greatest amount of hand-wringing and arm-waving. The far greater death toll in the same cohort due to plain old influenza over the same time period, just doesn’t count. The chronically ill can be killed in a huge variety of ways not related to coronavirus, including mundane things like diarrhea.

          4. vulnerable cohort One such that keeps appearing in the news, are people with severe food allergies that cause anaphylaxis. They keep dying from the ingestion of food prepared by others, and ignore the obvious necessity for choosing to only ingest food they are 100% sure is safe for them, and not eating anything else, EVER. Some have already been prescribed epinephrine auto injectors and yet do not neglect to have such items with them at all times.

          5. “One such that keeps appearing in the news, are people with severe food allergies that cause anaphylaxis.”

            Agreed. Years ago up our way a k12 school took a field trip somewhere, and the site being visited handed out boxed lunches. Sure as schitt, some kid with peanut allergies eats one of the peanut butter cookies and goes into shock and dies. The school district had the deep pockets and lost several million dollars in a tort claim. Not sure if the parent’s doting was ever questioned.

          6. Sure as schitt, some kid with peanut allergies eats one of the peanut butter cookies and goes into shock and dies.

            It is irresponsible to allow a child like that to eat out period.

      2. $till.$preading!

        Things are looking up in the US. The number of people walking around with a positive test up their nose has been dropping.

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