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Looming Evictions And Landlord Mortgage Defaults Are Going To Be Significant

A report from Arlington Now in Virginia. “The numbers don’t lie, folks. In our Just Reduced world, where just months ago, there were a dozen (at the most) homes with reduced prices each week in Arlington County, we’re now seeing approximately three times that amount on a regular basis. Of course, given the current climate, there is a level of uncertainty and, for some folks, some very tricky and difficult scenarios.”

“But, if you are fortunate enough to be in a buying position right now, there are certainly some advantages. This influx of reduced properties means the sellers out there right now are being a bit more aggressive to get their homes sold. And, these Just Reduced prices are only the beginning.”

From Westfair Online in Connecticut. “Realtor Richard Higgins Jr. has a message for Bradley Cooper fans: The actor has not bought a mansion in Fairfield. And while the story has brought more attention to Cooper, it has also put a renewed spotlight on Higgins’ 17,735-square-foot property, which came on the market in November 2018 for $28.5 million and has twice seen its listing price slashed, most recently in June to $19.9 million.”

The Los Angeles Times on Arizona. “Even among Frank Lloyd Wright’s scores of iconic properties, this sweeping spiral house still stands out. The Arizona home, which the celebrated architect built for his son David in the 1950s, just sold for $7.25 million. The deal wraps up a two-year effort to sell the estate, which originally listed for $12.95 million in 2018 before a price cut last year brought the tag down to a buck shy of $10 million.”

The Tampa Bay Times. “More homeowners in Florida and nationwide became delinquent on their mortgage payments in the second quarter compared to the first, according to the Mortgage Banker Association. In particular, the Federal Housing Administration loans used to help lower-income and first-time buyers afford a house saw a record-breaking spike. Nationally, the delinquency rate for such loans increased to about 15.7 percent — the highest percentage since the association starting measuring in 1979.”

“In Florida, that number was even higher, at 16.8 percent. The state saw one of the greatest increases between the first and second quarters in the nation, along with New Jersey, New York and Hawaii — all states with a prevalence of tourism and hospitality jobs. New Jersey had the highest delinquency rate on Federal Housing Administration loans, at just more than 20 percent.”

From Chicago Now in Illinois. “On Thursday ATTOM Data Solutions released their July 2020 Foreclosure Market Report. All hell is sure to break loose once the moratorium ends at the end of August since we have near record unemployment and, according to CoreLogic, 7.3% of mortgages were delinquent in May compared to only 3.6% last year. Why CoreLogic is only now showing May data is beyond my comprehension but you can only imagine that it’s going to get worse from here on out.”

“As I’ve been saying it’s really strange that the number of Chicago homes in foreclosure continues to decline despite the inability of the servicers to complete foreclosures. During July we had another 378 unit decline, which is the biggest drop in 6 months. I guess it’s possible that foreclosed homeowners are able to redeem their homes out of the foreclosure process? In this environment? Seems highly unlikely though. On the other hand it could be short sales that are clearing the shadow inventory I guess.”

From KDKA in Pennsylvania. “Governor Tom Wolf extended the relief period to renters and homeowners as many people have lost jobs during the coronavirus pandemic. Experts say a tsunami of evictions may be on the horizon. ‘The house is in forbearance, a kind of foreclosure, and we don’t know if we’re going to lose the house,’ said David Ogrodowski, who has also been out of work through the pandemic. Ogrodowski is a landlord who says he needs the rent money his two properties provide but because of the moratorium, he cannot collect from one tenant.”

“‘I don’t have an income, I’m unemployed,’ Ogrodowski told KDKA.”

The New York Times. “The number of apartments for rent in New York City has soared to the highest rate in more than a decade. There were more than 67,300 units available in July across the city, according to StreetEasy, the most apartments available in any month since the listing site started tracking rental inventory in 2010. In June and July combined, more than 120,000 apartments were for lease, a nearly 26 percent increase over the same months in 2019.”

“‘The pain to the New York City economy is profound,’ said Jonathan J. Miller, the president of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. ‘Record vacancy over the past 14 years, coupled with both a rising market share and amount of concessions provided by landlords, all tell the same story that outbound migration from Manhattan is real.'”

“Mr. Miller said apartments will most likely continue to flood the market as people who are struggling financially do not renew their leases. ‘Looming evictions and landlord mortgage defaults are going to be significant,’ Mr. Miller said.”

From New York 1. “From Midtown to Wall Street, it’s not quite a ghost town, but there’s not much hustle or bustle. These days ‘The Fearless Girl’ stares across a mostly empty plaza outside the New York Stock Exchange. ‘It just seem to be spiraling further and further out of control,’ said Rosetta Wines owner Shermon Peters. Peters says before the pandemic 10,000 people an hour would rush by his store on their way to Wall Street jobs every morning. ‘Now in the morning it’s so quiet I actual count, and it averages around 50 people an hour,’ he said.”

“James Nelson of Commercial Real Estate Firm Avison Young, says landlords and lenders have allowed companies to defer rent payments and some businesses have been able to pay partial rents through the federal Paycheck Protection Program. ‘The big question is once that dries up and once the lenders say ok it’s been six months, what are we doing here?’ Nelson asked hypothetically. ‘If those tenants aren’t back and paying rent, I think that’s where the challenge is.'”

From Cap Radio on California. “Californians who have fallen behind on housing payments due to the coronavirus are set to lose protections and could face evictions beginning Sept. 1 — unless state lawmakers step in. Sen. Melissa Melendez (R – Lake Elsinore) warned some banks could seek lump sums from landlords and borrowers and asked whether ‘it’s realistic to assume a renter is going to come up with a year’s worth of rent’ due at the end of the grace period.”

“Property owners say neither piece of legislation goes far enough to protect landlords and ensure they get paid. In a statement, the California Rental Housing Association’s Jack Schwartz called them ‘overbroad legislative proposals that will lead to bankruptcies of rental housing owners since they fail to provide any real financial relief for owners who have not been paid.'”

The Daily Mail on California. “The house where Robin Williams lived for six years has reduced its price by $1.25 million, after almost 10 months on the market. Just north of San Francisco, via the Golden Gate Bridge, the six bedroom, 6.5 bathroom, 6,500 sq ft house was put on the market in November 2019 for $7.25 million. It’s asking price has now been dropped to $5.995 million.”

The Los Angeles Times on California. “Houston Astros owner Jim Crane has unloaded a base on the Monterey Peninsula, selling his home in Pebble Beach for $21 million. That’s a roughly 45% discount from the original 2017 asking price of $37.9 million.”

From Enstarz. “Miley Cyrus’ net worth has been making her fans scream. But now that she is alone again, how does it affect her value? In 2017, she reportedly had an estimated net worth of $200 million. However, as of writing, Celebrity Net Worth reported that Miley Cyrus’ net worth for this year plummeted to $160 million. Miley has not divulged the reason as to why her net worth decreased over time or where the $40 million went. But it is worth noting that she underwent surgical procedures these past few years and even sold some of her properties.”

“In February 2020, Miley sparked concerns after silently selling her pad in Malibu for almost half of its original price. Her fans thought that time that the singer might be facing financial struggles after her divorce from Liam. According to records, Miley bought the contemporary two-story pad for $2.5 million in 2016. However, she sold it for only $1.7 million — an almost $1 million loss!”

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  1. ‘The numbers don’t lie, folks. In our Just Reduced world, where just months ago, there were a dozen (at the most) homes with reduced prices each week in Arlington County, we’re now seeing approximately three times that amount on a regular basis. Of course, given the current climate, there is a level of uncertainty and, for some folks, some very tricky and difficult scenarios’

    ‘But, if you are fortunate enough to be in a buying position right now, there are certainly some advantages. This influx of reduced properties means the sellers out there right now are being a bit more aggressive to get their homes sold. And, these Just Reduced prices are only the beginning’

    Eat yer crowz taxpayer.

    2. There is a mix of issues with Arlington. The majority of listed properties are condos. Some of the properties are probably people who speculated on Amazon HQ 2 and are now giving up. The area is rife with anchor babies which isn’t good for the schools. The reductions are a laughable 2-5%; not quite crater yet. The area is too close to the city (in fact Arlington used to BE part of the city) to attract white flight and/or wealth flight. Meanwhile, 20 miles away near Dulles Airport houses are selling like hotcakes.

      1. When administrations flip to the other side of the aisle is there a shift in condo ownership inside the beltway?

  2. ‘which came on the market in November 2018 for $28.5 million and has twice seen its listing price slashed, most recently in June to $19.9 million’

    UHS says CT is on fire. UHS is a lion.

    1. I know movie stars make enough money to throw millions of dollars down the real estate rat hole, but how does a used home seller get that kind of money?

  3. ‘In 2017, she reportedly had an estimated net worth of $200 million. However, as of writing, Celebrity Net Worth reported that Miley Cyrus’ net worth for this year plummeted to $160 million’

    Miley apparently attended the Cage/Depp School of RE Investing.

    1. She’s also shown great potential at the Amber Heard School of Wifing. It seems Liam got out in time.

          1. “I think she has great talent”

            Did somebody teach Miley Cyrus to scrape the cr@p off her tongue before she sticks it out at a television audience yet?

        2. Miley Cyrus not so much….

          I hear you but I gotta say, that live version she did at the awards show a few months ago of the song “Slide Away” was really good IMO. Both musically and visually.

  4. ‘Why CoreLogic is only now showing May data is beyond my comprehension’

    This is important. These RE data firms lie, give out misleading stats, selectively report this, cover up that.

    ‘As I’ve been saying it’s really strange that the number of Chicago homes in foreclosure continues to decline despite the inability of the servicers to complete foreclosures. During July we had another 378 unit decline, which is the biggest drop in 6 months. I guess it’s possible that foreclosed homeowners are able to redeem their homes out of the foreclosure process? In this environment? Seems highly unlikely though. On the other hand it could be short sales that are clearing the shadow inventory I guess’

    Let’s go back to 2019. It was reported in the 4th quarter that Auction.com had gotten 43,000 shacks to sell off in the 3rd quarter. That was way more than had been reported as foreclosed in nearby time periods by the GSEs. So where did 43,000 shacks come from the HBB asked? Nobody knows, the REIC would sell their grandmothers for a month of commissions, so we can’t trust them.

    Oh, and Auction.com never told us what happened in the quarters since. It’s like the price reduced stats that used to come out every month from multiple sources. Wa happened?

  5. “This influx of reduced properties means the sellers out there right now are being a bit more aggressive to get their homes sold. And, these Just Reduced prices are only the beginning.”

    My advice to anyone thinking about becoming a first-time buyer at some point in the foreseeable future is to keep your powder dry for the next five years or so. If this crash plays out similarly to other real estate busts of historic magnitude (e.g. 1990-1996, 2007-2012), it will take many years for the market adjustment process to play out, and the best buying opportunities will lie on the other side, for anyone left standing.

  6. before the pandemic 10,000 people an hour would rush by his store on their way to Wall Street jobs every morning. ‘Now in the morning it’s so quiet I actual count, and it averages around 50 people an hour,’ he said.”

    ‘landlords and lenders have allowed companies to defer rent payments and some businesses have been able to pay partial rents through the federal Paycheck Protection Program. ‘The big question is once that dries up and once the lenders say ok it’s been six months, what are we doing here?’

    I said multiple times the guberments were playing with fire. I’ve been a public and private accountant. Businesses can’t stand up to these shutdowns. Many millions are already gone. There are going to be lawsuits for many years over the holes they’ve dug.

    From the Cap Radio article:

    ‘Democratic lawmakers, landlords and housing advocates say the simplest fix is more money from the federal government. The now-expired $600 weekly unemployment boost helped many people stay in their homes even as work dried up.’

    “I wish we weren’t in this option and we actually had adequate capital going to those for pandemic relief,” said Sen. Henry Stern (D– Calabasas)’

    Yeah Henry, we all wish we had money when we don’t. Begging the feds for another month of free cheese isn’t gonna solve a gotdam thing. Here’s a new flash: the federal government is broke. Better get your head out of yer a$$.

    1. before the pandemic 10,000 people an hour would rush by his store on their way to Wall Street jobs every morning. ‘Now in the morning it’s so quiet I actual count, and it averages around 50 people an hour,’ he said.”

      That’s a staggering decline.

    2. Not the simplest fix.

      The ONLY fix they will contemplate.

      “Democratic lawmakers, landlords and housing advocates say the simplest fix is more money from the federal government.”

    3. “There are going to be lawsuits for many years over the holes they’ve dug.”

      Could California state be held liable for losses inflicted on businesses?

      How about Governor Nuisance?

  7. ‘The house is in forbearance, a kind of foreclosure, and we don’t know if we’re going to lose the house’…a landlord who says he needs the rent money his two properties provide but because of the moratorium, he cannot collect from one tenant. ‘I don’t have an income, I’m unemployed’

    Multiply this by many millions.

    ‘More homeowners in Florida and nationwide became delinquent on their mortgage payments in the second quarter compared to the first, according to the Mortgage Banker Association. In particular, the Federal Housing Administration loans used to help lower-income and first-time buyers afford a house saw a record-breaking spike. Nationally, the delinquency rate for such loans increased to about 15.7 percent — the highest percentage since the association starting measuring in 1979’

    ‘In Florida, that number was even higher, at 16.8 percent. The state saw one of the greatest increases between the first and second quarters in the nation, along with New Jersey, New York and Hawaii — all states with a prevalence of tourism and hospitality jobs. New Jersey had the highest delinquency rate on Federal Housing Administration loans, at just more than 20 percent’

    FHA is subprime. Stop telling us there’s no subprime. Note to guberment: stop helping.

    ‘New Jersey had the highest delinquency rate on Federal Housing Administration loans, at just more than 20 percent’

    You know, shacks in NJ are crazy expensive. And you guys were handing out subprime loans like candy. One in five are toast already. Last decade 95% of defaults were prime. Why? They found themselves underwater or broke, or both, and walked away.

    1. Property taxes will not be paid if landlords are prevented from collecting rent and from evicting non paying renters.

  9. “Just north of San Francisco, via the Golden Gate Bridge, the six bedroom, 6.5 bathroom, 6,500 sq ft house was put on the market in November 2019 for $7.25 million. It’s asking price has now been dropped to $5.995 million.”

    It would seem difficult to live in the shadow of a former celebrity owner’s suicide. I wonder if the UHS bring that delicate issue up when someone asks to see the property?

    1. I was thinking the same thing. IIRC, disclosure of death on the property is limited to 3 years.

        1. I’m guessing most folks with $6 million available for a home purchase are sufficiently clued in to know who the former owner is.

          With the possible exception of clueless, though ever flush, wealthy all-cash Chinese investors. Who, I understand, have left the building…

    2. Even worse, it appears he committed suicide in the house itself:

      In August 2014, at age 63, Williams committed suicide by hanging at his home in Paradise Cay, California. (wiki)

      1. Even worse, it appears he committed suicide in the house itself:

        I believe that California law requires disclosing that Williams killed himself in the house.

        1. Even so, it’s public knowledge, disclosure or not. I wonder if it would help to court a foreign buyer, someone not so familiar with Robin Williams. Maybe there are still Chinese or Indian buyers out there — but then again … I’m not familiar with Asian/Indian superstitions. They might object to a suicide in the house even more than an American would.

          1. We had the same thought, as evidenced by the post I just made before reading yours.

            I’d be a little surprised if any of the major cultural affiliations of a potential buyer don’t have a superstitious aversion towards living in a place where the former owner killed himself.

            A smart buyer could try offering 50% of asking, mentioning the negative aura associated with a place where the former owner died. It would be worth ascertaining whether anyone who looks at the place is aware of the situation.

          2. Lots of people prefer to expire at home rather than the stainless-steel and pine-sol confines of a hospital. Usually it’s in the living-room in a rented adjustable hospital bed.

          3. The Sharon Tate, Sebring, Frykowski and Folger murder scene house probably had some resale value – superstition issues.

  10. “Houston Astros owner Jim Crane has unloaded a base on the Monterey Peninsula, selling his home in Pebble Beach for $21 million. That’s a roughly 45% discount from the original 2017 asking price of $37.9 million.”

    Sounds like the new owner stole home plate from Jim. LOLZ!

    1. Sounds like the new owner stole home plate from Jim. LOLZ!

      For using a sports analogy, please go outside and ask the first male passerby to kick you in the jimmies.

    2. “Income and Salaries for Bend
      – The average income of a Bend resident is $30,946 a year. The US average is $28,555 a year.
      – The Median household income of a Bend resident is $52,471 a year. The US average is $53,482 a year.”

      Over 10X median income for a podunk town of under 100k people in the middle of nowhere with land as far as the eye can see. Just WOW.

      1. It’s the equity locust invasion from California zipping around in their supercharged Audi SUVs, providing professional services with their fancy college degrees. The indigenous yokels provide the manual labor, never spending a penny of it on dentistry.

        1. The entire economy is dependent upon building expensive shacks and buying selling them to greater fools. Once that’s over, it’s curtains. Their prices fell by like 60% or something last time. It was a bloodbath, and will likely be much worse this time around given that prices are much higher.

  12. “According to records, Miley bought the contemporary two-story pad for $2.5 million in 2016. However, she sold it for only $1.7 million — an almost $1 million loss!”

    She has millions more where that came from to throw away on money losing real estate investments.

    1. ‘She has millions more where that came from’

      That’s what Johnny thought. Shiver me timbers Miley, don’t screw up the comps!

    2. She has millions more where that came from to throw away on money losing real estate investments.

      In her line of work one can become a has been overnight.

  13. What’s driving Mr Market to the flatline today after futures sold off overnight? New Russian vaccine announcement?

    1. Bond Report
      Treasury yields fall ahead of jobless claims data as stocks set to extend retreat
      Published: Aug. 20, 2020 at 8:16 a.m. ET
      By Sunny Oh

      U.S. Treasury yields ticked lower in early Thursday trade ahead of the weekly jobless claims data release that may furnish clues on whether employment is continuing to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

      What are Treasurys doing?

      The 10-year note yield fell 1.9 basis points to 0.656%, while the 2-year note rate edged 0.6 basis point down to 0.135%. The 30-year bond yield slipped 2.8 basis points to 1.387%. Yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices.

      What’s driving Treasurys?

      The number of Americans filing for jobless claims in the latest weekly period is expected to fall to 910,000, down from 963,000. Though that would represent an improvement from the weeks when claims stood above a million, they remain elevated even compared to the depths of the 2007-09’ Great Recession.
      …

    5. Brett Arends’s ROI
      Opinion: A strategy to outsmart the S&P 500 ‘bubble’
      Published: Aug. 20, 2020 at 11:22 a.m. ET
      By Brett Arends
      Play U.S. stock rebound the cheaper way

      Two modern economists are walking down the street, chatting away amicably, marveling at the perfect wisdom of the stock market. Then one of them looks down, stops, and holds out his hand to stop his companion.

      “Look!” he says, pointing down.

      The second economist follows his gesture. And there, on the sidewalk, he sees a giant pile of money.

      The two gawp for a second. Then the first economist bends down to scoop up some of the cash, only to be stopped by his companion.

      “Don’t bother,” he says.

      “Why not?”

      “It’s not real.”

      “What do you mean, it’s not real? I can see it right here with my own eyes.”

      “It’s not real,” says the second economist, “and I can prove it. If the money were really there, don’t you think someone else would have already picked it up? What makes you think you are smarter than everyone else who has walked down this road before us? After all, the market is perfect!”

      His companion thinks about this for a second. “Of course!” he says. “How foolish of me. You’re absolutely right!”

      And so they walk on.

      This old economists’ fable – it would be a stretch to call it a joke – is often told about modern “efficient market” economists, those who believe the market is perfect and no anomalies exist.

      One wonders what they make of the situation right now.

      It’s not just that the S&P 500 (SPX, 0.17%) large company stock index is flirting with new highs in the midst of a major crisis.

      It’s that small company, higher quality “value” stocks are trading at their biggest discount since the insanity of the dot-com bubble in 1999-2000.

      For those who missed it: Anyone who swapped out of big tech growth stocks back then and bought “small cap value” stocks instead avoided the crash and doubled their money over the next six years, even while the blue chip index tanked.

      Efficient market economists, like the pair walking down the street, will tell you that there is no such thing as found money or a free lunch. They insist that on the market, “the price is always right,” and every stock offers exactly the same risk-adjusted return as every other.

      But it’s a puzzle.
      …

      2. Yahoo disabled its comment section last month….But they have an easy to read finance section, and i still have a couple of legacy emails to send my spam and newsletters too.

        1. I wonder how many people are really on the fence in this election. I don’t think there are many who would switch entirely from Trump to Biden or vice versa, but there are many who, I’m sure, are debating whether to brave voting at all. This kind of media censorship might push them over.

          And I still wonder what the libertarians are going to do. If they cast a purity vote, they risk full-on nanny state. Will they hold their noses for Trump?

          1. This is just my hunch, of course, but I think there are more voters who will switch from Biden to Trump than Trump to Biden. Why? Because there are still more whites in this country than any other race, and they’re the ones being told by Dems that they’re racist just because their skin is white. That is not sitting well at all.

            That doesn’t even get into the whole “lets get rid of the cops” as the BLM burnin’ and lootin’ is going on. I think the Dems shot themselves in the foot, yet again.

          2. Because there are still more whites

            I got a better reason. Most Americans work for a living, or depend on someone who does.

    3. “MarketWatch: After the killing of George Floyd…”

      Doting dad, George Floyd died hooping dangerous illegal drugs.

  15. I have to do some work for a woman with severe Trump Derangement Syndrome tomorrow. I’m kind of dreading it. I’ve grown tired of listening to her, so I’m thinking of telling her I’m voting for Trump – AGAIN – which I hope floors her. She’s flirtatious with me which is part of the annoyance. She’s old enough to be my mother. I kind of hope after I tell her I’m voting for Trump, she won’t call me again.

    1. Why not just cancel? Tell her something came up and because you have so much work you can’t rebook her.

      But if you do show up, make sure you get paid before telling her how you’re going to vote.

      1. Why not just cancel? Tell her something came up and because you have so much work you can’t rebook her.

        Because I am a man of my word and I’ve done a lot of work for her. She’s actually a good customer, financially speaking, but really annoying.

      2. “But if you do show up, make sure you get paid before telling her how you’re going to vote.”

        LOL; truth!

    2. When I reached a certain level of maturity, I realized that I don’t need people to agree with me to be able to talk with them, do business with them, or enjoy their company.

      It’s made all the difference!

        2. It’s different in person. If I can sneak sex, religion, and politics into a face-to-face conversation, I consider that a success.

          On the other hand, when anyone I know goes off on a TDS rant, I generally politely nod until the conversation moves on.

  16. Banks are buying back Government backed mortgages at a discount they can do this when the mortgage has not been paid for 90 days. Now the government letting mortgages go unpaid because of corona. banks use this opportunity to buy these mortgages back from GNMA at a discount and sell them back when the moratorium is over at full price. GNMA bond holders are not happy !

    1. GNMA bond holders are not happy ! Too bad for them, they must have been insane to buy GNMA bonds in the first place.

  17. From Crain’s New York:

    Restaurant owners say they’re facing a catastrophic fall and winter

    But interest rates are low?

    1. Housing prices are cratering irrespective of rates.

      North Hampton, NH Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Rural And Suburban Housing Prices Drop Like A Rock

      https://www.zillow.com/north-hampton-nh/home-values/

      *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

      As one RE data firm manager conceded, “We’ll say whatever you want us to say as long as the price is right.”

    2. They voted 70%+ for deblaso.

      It’s very funny when people who vote for socialists act surprised when smacked in the face with socialism.

      2. “They voted 70%+ for deblaso.”

        I’m torn between who I dislike more, Bill de Blasio the mayor of New York City or Jacob Frey the mayor of Minneapolis.

    4. But interest rates are low?

      Yeah, haha. What a sham this low-rate thing is. I think the FED’s starting to get nervous, because they’re now being questioned by lamestream media types who have, in the past, provided cover for them.

  18. ‘The number of apartments for rent in New York City has soared to the highest rate in more than a decade. There were more than 67,300 units available in July across the city, according to StreetEasy, the most apartments available in any month since the listing site started tracking rental inventory in 2010. In June and July combined, more than 120,000 apartments were for lease’

    But griz says only 1.5% are vacant?

    2. But griz says only 1.5% are vacant?

      He’s a total shill. My bet is he and his buddies are neck deep in Airbnb “rentals,” etc.

      1. Here’s another title from Crain’s New York:

        Foreclosure risks mount as hotels leave more than $1B in mortgage loans unpaid

        Is that a lot?

          1. Seems like da boyz are counting on bailouts to make themselves whole one the COVID-19 smoke clears.

            All things are possible with Unlimited Quarantinive Easing.

        2. Foreclosure risks mount as hotels leave more than $1B in mortgage loans unpaid

          Is that a lot?

          Makes me think of that Austin Powers’ movie where Dr. Evil travels to the future and demands a relative pittance in hostage money.

          $1 billion is a lot. Probably more than I could spend in 1000 lifetimes. But in an age of multi trillion dollar budget deficits and multi trillion Fed balance sheets, it has become merely noise.

    3. Follow up calculation:

      67,300 units * $100K mortage leverage [1] / unit ~=$6.7b

      Is $6,700,000,000 a lot?

      [1] Used very conservative mortgage value to make for easy math.

      Don’t have any hard data, but actual’s are probably *much* higher.

      Even @2% mortgage rate, how long can “owners” service these loans out of pocket before going belly’s up?

      Per Ben’s post (see above) $1B loans are already behind the eight ball.

      Wouldn’t surprise one iota if next months figures start to go exponential.

        1. “…This only considers empty units…”

          Yep. Where there’s smoke there is fire.

          And this fire is turning into the proverbial barn burner.

    2. “Kill Bezos” “Die Yuppy”

      Seriously?? I don’t think *that* was reported in the Washington Post. Are these the same folks who tore down a statue of US Grant? And yuppies are baby boomers.

      1. But but but WF starting at $15 for baggers and cart retrievers, all paid for by the $20 a year increase in Prime membership………a smart move

  21. It looks like my speculative Platinum Eagle purchase was just about perfectly timed at the peak. I paid $961 per ounce, not including the dealer fee. It has since fallen $50 or so.

    Look at precious metals in general, if the FED is planning on sitting pat and doing nothing for the foreseeable future, as they have indicated, I would not be surprised to see all metals move down in price. We may have seen the peak on all of them if the FED’s “Unlimited QE” was in fact nothing more than jawboning and bluster.

    1. “…if the FED’s “Unlimited QE” was in fact nothing more than jawboning and bluster.”

      More likely explanation: They are reloading the bazookas for the next point of crisis.

    2. I still believe that good vaccine news will trigger a 10%-15% correction in PMs. After that, I’m not sure. My guess is a tug-of-war between inflation and deflation, as the fed prints but the 70% consumer economy continues to falter. I have no idea what the corporate debt doom loop is going to do. I have no idea what the election will do. I think inflation will eventually win out, but it might take two years to get here.

    4. It looks like my speculative Platinum Eagle purchase was just about perfectly timed at the peak. I paid $961 per ounce, not including the dealer fee. It has since fallen $50 or so.

      I’ve been buying Canadian Maple Leaf 1-oz platinum coins from SD Bullion anytime they become available. The only ones I’ve been able to find are random dates that are commanding much higher premiums than notional spot prices. Price drops are academic if you can’t find any for sale at that supposed price point.

      1. Out of curiosity, I just checked the SD Bullion website. Platinum is supposedly $930 a Troy oz, yet they don’t have a single 1-oz platinum coin for sale at any price, except for a one-off collector proof coin going for more than $1600. The bullion banks are buying and selling paper gold, silver, and platinum at fake pricing that bears almost no relationship to real-world pricing when you account for the premiums. Even with inflated premiums, most retail coin dealers and sites appear to be completely sold out, or they’re withholding inventory rather than sell it at the bullion bankers’ manipulated, fake pricing. I don’t see how the commercial speculators are going to cover their 560,000,000-oz short position when nobody seems to have any physical precious metals for sale.

        1. Incidentally, the CFTC (commodities regulators) is supposed to update the Commitment of Traders (COT) report every seven days to show commercial and non-commercial traders’ long and short positions in precious metals. It should’ve been updated on the 18th, but the old chart from the 11th is still up. Hmm, I’m sure that’s just an administrative oversight.

          https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

      2. My local coin shop has as many Platinum Eagles as I want. I was thinking about buy 15 or 20 of them as a speculative play, but I’m just not that brave.

        1. How about something with intrinsic value to get you through tough times, e.g., a Sig Sauer P220 handgun in 10mm Auto?

          1. I already have a 10mm and thousands of rounds of ammo. I don’t really want any more guns, except maybe a .357 Sig.

  23. This influx of reduced properties means the sellers out there right now are being a bit more aggressive to get their homes sold. And, these Just Reduced prices are only the beginning.”

    Two things:

    1) Sellers being “a bit more aggressive” doesn’t cut it. Get to sawin’ and slashin’ like you mean it, greedheads.

    2) If these price reductions are “only the beginning,” why on earth would I buy right now?

    Get your lies straight, REIC shills.

  24. “More homeowners in Florida and nationwide became delinquent on their mortgage payments in the second quarter compared to the first, according to the Mortgage Banker Association.

    Gosh, it’s almost like the trend is getting worse with each passing quarter.

  25. In June and July combined, more than 120,000 apartments were for lease, a nearly 26 percent increase over the same months in 2019.”

    Is that a lot?

  26. I guess it’s possible that foreclosed homeowners are able to redeem their homes out of the foreclosure process? In this environment? Seems highly unlikely though.

    Ima gonna go with “Someone’s a lion.”

  27. ‘If those tenants aren’t back and paying rent, I think that’s where the challenge is.’”

    And just like that, James Nelson earns his big bucks. How do you do it, Jimbo?

  28. “Property owners say neither piece of legislation goes far enough to protect landlords and ensure they get paid.

    When did making sure landlords get paid become taxpayers’ problem?

    1. When did making sure landlords get paid become taxpayers’ problem?

      Section 8 has been doing it for a while. But Section 8 isn’t universal and there won’t be a bail out for landlords, just for banks with bad loans.

  29. “In February 2020, Miley sparked concerns after silently selling her pad in Malibu for almost half of its original price.

    Maybe Miley can go back to her country roots and start composing songs about the FB blues.

    1. Maybe Miley can go back to her country roots

      Her parents and Disney did a good job of presenting her as an aw shucks nice girl during her Hanna Montana days. I have to say, once that ended her transformation into a twerker was almost instantaneous.

    2. Perhaps she can cover her dad’s song “Achy Breaky Heart”, and change up the lyrics to mourn the loss of $40 million and the cratering shack market.

  32. Bend Oregon has been attracting rich big-city refugees for decades. My civil procedure professor moved to Bend in the mid-90s after cashing out of a big New York law firm. The place has always been crazy expensive. You don’t make money there. You bring money there.

    1. The place has always been crazy expensive.

      No, it hasn’t. It was seriously cheap back in the 90s before any of this bubble nonsense, and it crashed spectacularly last meltdown.

      Did you sell all your speculative houses in the foothills outside of Sac, Jingle?

      2. “It was seriously cheap back in the 90s before any of this bubble nonsense”

        Truth. It was still a backwater town when I used to call on customers in the area ’98 to ’02-ish. Much preferred, to me at least.

          1. Also true. I called on Oregon Shakespeare and others in the Grants Pass and Medford areas. I remember thinking how sleepy Ashland was. But even then several of my customers had relocated from CA. Then in about 2005 I rolled up on a house listed for $700K and thought “there went the neighborhood.”

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