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There’s A Lot Of Fear Of That 2009 Scenario

A report from CNBC. “Late Tuesday, the Trump administration announced a somewhat creative plan to stop most rental evictions through the end of the year. ‘Without mortgage forbearance protections and protections from other property-level financial obligations such as property taxes, insurance payments and utility service, the stability of the entire rental housing sector is thrown into question,’ said Doug Bibby, president of the National Multifamily Housing Council. ‘I believe that this new regulation — and even greater eviction crisis that we will be seeing come 2021 — will cause a significant decline in multifamily values.'”

“It could also lower the value of single-family homes, as small landlords default on their mortgages and those homes go into foreclosure.”

The Daily Free Press on Massachusetts. “The Boston real estate market has seen a significant decline in rentals since the pandemic began. As many college students choose to learn remotely, thousands of rental units in Boston remain vacant. Some rents have declined by as much as 10 percent, said Ted Landsmark, director of the Dukakis Center for Urban Research and Policy, adding that landlords may face foreclosure if they do not find tenants. ‘There’s a tendency to assume that all landlords are rich and are sitting on large reserves of capital that enable them to survive vacancies,’ Landsmark said. ‘But that’s simply not the case.”

From News 3 Las Vegas. “Nevada REALTORS issued a statement Monday evening expressing disappointment on Gov. Steve Sisolak’s 45-day extension of the eviction moratorium. The extension provided ‘tremendous hardship’ for property owners in the Silver State. ‘Many of them will now have no recourse or way to cover their own expenses,’ Nevada REALTORS said.”

From First Coast News in Florida. “‘They’re totally forgetting about landlords, completely,’ said Jacksonville landlord Ronaldo Noureldin. Noureldin said he is currently missing $10,000 in rent payments, which is supposed to go to mortgage payments and fixing any problems with other properties. ‘I still have ‘x’ amount of dollars that I still have to pay out, but it’ll have to come out of my pocket and that unit is not generating any income,’said landlord Scott Smith. ‘We’re really being left high and dry.'”

From NBC Miami in Florida. “Patrick Weir said his tenants stopped paying rent in April. ‘I’m being taken advantage of,’ Weir said. ‘After they stopped paying, I sent them emails, I sent them texts and I called them. They have not responded.’ For the past five months, Weir said he has kept paying the mortgage on his property – even though the tenants owe him more than $10,000. ‘I’m sure there’s probably thousands in Florida and across the country that are facing the same thing,’ Weir said. ‘Some of them may not be able to make their mortgage payment, some of them may have these tenants that are taking advantage of the situation.'”

The Dallas Observer in Texas. “Jamie Taylor, who is a property manager in Austin, said he knows landlords who are going broke at the same time their tenants are ‘living their best life.’ ‘Do you have a heart for people? Of course. You don’t want to see anybody thrown out,’ Taylor said. ‘But there needs to be some type of balance, whether it is giving some type of assistance to the landlords, working with their mortgage companies … or tightening down on the stipulations of receiving your unemployment,’ he continued. ‘This is supposed to go to your bill, not vacation.'”

From KXAN in Texas. “‘There’s a lot of fear of that, you know, 2009 scenario of properties being foreclosed on, you know, owners selling, because they can’t just make it work,’ said Executive Vice President of the Austin Apartment Association Emily Blair. Blair says as more people are having trouble paying rent, some Austin landlords are getting closer to that reality.”

From Spectrum News on California. “As the financial restraints of the COVID-19 pandemic continue, small landlords in Los Angeles — who own a few investment properties — are finding it harder to fill their vacant apartments. ‘I have actually had five vacancies since March 15, which is when everything shut down. I’ve only filled three out of the five,’ said Bettyna, a small landlord in Los Angeles. As the pandemic continues, Bettyna realized she needed to lower the threshold of requirements to help renters move in because the longer her rental properties remain vacant, she’s left with less money to pay the bills.”

“‘I’ve had a real hard time because I still have to pay my utilities, my mortgages, my taxes, my insurance, all the repairs that come up,’ Bettyna said.”

From ABC 7 in California. “Bay Area property owners are concerned the new eviction bill signed by Governor Gavin Newsom will lead to foreclosures. ‘What is going to do is put a lot of mom and pops in foreclosure or in a very difficult position to pay their bills. Especially if you have a large group of tenants who are not paying at all,’ said property owner Gustavo Gonzalez.”

“Gonzales owns two housing buildings in San Jose. He says at least 20% of his tenants have been unable to pay. Gonzalez believes many property providers like him are holding on by a thread and hoping they don’t lose everything. ‘What they should’ve done is figure out a way to get more funds to help support the tenants with their payments and so we can continue to pay our bills, mortgages, property taxes, but instead they said 25% is the best we can do,’ said Gonzalez.”

From NBC Bay Area in California. “For the first time in six years, the average one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco can be yours for less than $3,000 a month. ‘They offered me a very good, like 30% discount,’ said tech entrepreneur Dominick Malzone. Malzone’s landlord was desperate enough to offer a deep discount, but it wasn’t enough. He runs a tech startup and moved to Las Vegas anyway, saying he can do business anywhere.”

The New York Post. “A downtown penthouse that served as a depository for almost $51 million in stolen funds has sold for $18 million despite the fact that there were far higher bids, brokers tell The Post exclusively. The seller was the US government, who had took control of the penthouse, located at 212 W. 18th St. in Chelsea, in a record billion-dollar asset seizure case. Walker Tower’s condo board is furious over the transaction, which lowers the property values throughout the trophy condo.”

“‘I don’t blame the buyer — he got the deal of the century,’ a member of the condo board told The Post. ‘But this deal should never have happened. The brokers did not get the best price for their seller. They did not fulfill their fiduciary responsibility as brokers. It is a shameful moment for the industry.'”

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This Post Has 184 Comments

  1. How are those 5% cap rates looking now?

    ‘But this deal should never have happened. The brokers did not get the best price for their seller. They did not fulfill their fiduciary responsibility as brokers. It is a shameful moment for the industry’

    Turn those machines back on!

    2. ‘They did not fulfill their fiduciary responsibility as brokers. It is a shameful moment for the industry’

      – Brokers and ‘fiduciary responsibility’ in the same sentence? Surely you jest! 🙂
      – ‘It’s been a shameful moment hallmark for the industry.’ There, fixed it! 🙂
      – Caveat emptor.

  2. ‘As the pandemic continues, Bettyna realized she needed to lower the threshold of requirements to help renters move in because the longer her rental properties remain vacant, she’s left with less money to pay the bills’

    I’ve been seeing this a lot lately. Lower requirements = more a$$-pounding.

    1. ” … she needed to lower the thre$hold of requirement$ to help renter$ move in … ”

      Land.lordy$: “you got a Robin.Hood account?
      Renter: “$ure do!”
      Land.lordy$: “you receive any Gov’t $timulu$ monie$?”
      Renter: “$ure did!”
      Land.lordy$: “how $oon can you move.in?”

    2. If you can’t stay very profitable at 30% under top market value, you simply should not be a landlord. You are just being super naive. At 50% you should still be able to make a small profit and pay all the bills. Lesson learn in my youth, and I always stayed true to that principle. Never had empty anything unless some special circumstances.

    3. Bettyna realized she needed to lower the threshold of requirements to help renters move in because the longer her rental properties remain vacant, she’s left with less money to pay the bills’

      Haha, exactly. Where’s that shill “Griz” from MT who told us how is rental empire buddies were getting 6 months up front or whatever? What a clown.

  3. ‘I believe that this new regulation — and even greater eviction crisis that we will be seeing come 2021 — will cause a significant decline in multifamily values’

    Fannie and Freddie are fooked.

    ‘It could also lower the value of single-family homes, as small landlords default on their mortgages and those homes go into foreclosure’

    DONG!

    1. “will cause a significant decline in multifamily values.”

      Thanks for this perspective, Doug. This will help form my strategy for next year. I just hope that by ‘significant’ you meant 30-50%, not 5-10%.

      Thoughts and prayers, btw.

    2. The Dem plan is to steal the election, let the small fish landlords go belly up, take over their properties and create new “progressive” slums where they will house and nurture future generations of dem voters. Look at any blue state, they are actively letting businesses die on the vine. Their only way out is violence if Trump wins. Surprised they havent stepped up to bombings yet but it will come.

      1. It’s almost like the Democrat’s globalist oligarch bankrollers and puppet masters want them to incite unrest and out-of-control crime in every Democrat-maladministered big city, cause massive white flight out of those areas, then have Wall Street vulture funds move in and buy up the blighted neighborhoods for a song. Then they’ll cut off funding for the BLM-Antifa rent-a-mobs, order their Democrat minions to crack down hard on crime and unrest, then watch all the properties they bought at firesale prices surge in value.

        1. I’m not optimistic for those poor vulture funds. Once you drive out the wealthy (white and black) it takes a generation for them to come back. In DC, it took 30 years to convert some of the areas which were burned out in 1968 to convert into the vibrant hipster Millenial paradise of the early 2000s. The ones who are gone will likely not come back. Their kids might.

          But now, with so much work@home, there is no need for massive office complexes like there was 20 years ago. So there’s no compelling employment reason for cities either. We may never see such an influx again. I believe that the larger cities like New York or LA will survive, but I wouldn’t speculate in the property market.

        2. Excellent plan for BlackRock. Seeing how they own a metric s**t-ton of distressed properties from last to around, this could be huge. Not sure who they are backing, but you can bet the winner will green light them making a quick buck after the 2021-2023 crater.

    2. Most of them were cash flow negative before Coronascam.

      Trees don’t grow to the sky after all……how bout it.

        1. The globalists are warming up for another attempted coup.

          Hmm, chickens coming home to roost? The US gov’t has fostered coups against (or assassinated) foreign leaders who didn’t toe Uncle Sam’s line. For a good read on this topic, check out “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man.”

    2. “Perspective: The election will likely spark violence — and a constitutional crisis. In every scenario except a Biden landslide, our simulation ended catastrophically.” – WaPo

      – Sounds like a petulant child not getting their way. Think Obama and you wouldn’t be far wrong. And yes, it also sounds like a threat. Recall that gun sales are brisk. That pesky 2nd Amendment. I’m not sure which is more hated by the left: the 1st or the 2nd Amendment.

      – The American election system, ignoring corruption for the moment, does work. Some may not like the electoral college. Many may not like the fact that DJT won in 2016, but that’s the system. Those that suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome and can’t accept the outcome of the election are disrespecting, even hating those in the electorate that voted for him. This is a fascist response. These children need to grow up. Adults don’t throw a temper tantrum when they don’t get their way. I’m a non-partisan voter. Both sides suck for various reasons, but at least one side has grown-ups and for that reason sucks less. Long Au and Pb.

          2. There’s been discussion about platinum (Pt) so I wasn’t sure if he meant that and used the wrong symbol.

      2. I’m not sure which is more hated by the left: the 1st or the 2nd Amendment.

        That’s been the saddest thing I’ve seen in my political life…watching the left turn their backs on the 1st Amendment after being its biggest defender.

        1. Bzzzt, wrong! Dont you remember Tipper Gore and the PMRC going after the lyrics of bands from the 80s? Any leftists defend them? Not unless the words promoted deviancy, then the ACLU jumped in because many of their founders were pedos – look it up, its hard to find but many of the chapter founders in various states/cities eventually got busted.

          Biden is just keeping up that legacy. You think he’s sniffed Kamala? 😉

      3. “In every scenario except a Biden landslide…”

        There’s only two in the running, sort of binary isn’t it?

        1. I think the implication is that if Biden wins by a few votes that Trump will refuse to give up the presidency.

          1. :: Trump will refuse to give up the presidency. ::
            I honestly cannot wait for this to happen. Now THAT will be some Must See TV! Get your popcorn! But yeah no temper tantrums because we are all adults, I get it. Will be pandemonium and Markets will flip out, too, probably pushing into actual Depression. Oh Da Horra.

      4. Many may not like the fact that DJT won in 2016, but that’s the system.

        Wasn’t electoral college reform supposed to be a priority? Nothing came of that, I see.

        1. They whine about it, but they know that you would need to change the Constitution to get rid of the EC, which entails 2/3 of the House, 2/3 of the Senats, and 2/3 of the states. Those 17 smallest states would not agree to an Amendment which takes power away from them.

  7. A report from CNBC. “Late Tuesday, the Trump administration announced a somewhat creative plan to stop most rental evictions through the end of the year. ‘Without mortgage forbearance protections and protections from other property-level financial obligations such as property taxes, insurance payments and utility service, the stability of the entire rental housing sector is thrown into question,’ said Doug Bibby, president of the National Multifamily Housing Council. ‘I believe that this new regulation — and even greater eviction crisis that we will be seeing come 2021 — will cause a significant decline in multifamily values.’”

    – It only has to last until Nov. 4th, the day after the elections.
    – The CCP virus pandemic is a Force Majeure event. The only way out that I see is for debt or payment forgiveness at some level. Otherwise, somebody is going to have to eat it.
    – While the pandemic is Force Majeure, the epic housing bubble (2.0) in both CRE and RRE since the GFC (caused by housing bubble 1.0), and the inevitable bursting of housing bubble 2.0, lays squarely at the feet of the Fed. Let them eat it. I think the rioters are focused on the wrong thing. The Fed: Arsonists in the fire brigade. From asset bubble to asset bubble. I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m “Fed up” with this modus operandi at the Fed.
    – Once the Nov. 3rd elections over, life will start to get real. I’ll give it until Jan. 1st , 2021, but can-kicking is running out of runway, IMHO.

    1. The only way out that I see is for debt or payment forgiveness at some level. Otherwise, somebody is going to have to eat it. I can’t imagine how such a large “forgiveness” can be accomplished without somebody “eating” it. Even the socialization of the losses at that scale can hardly be concealed from the victims, i.e., the general public.

      1. I can’t imagine how such a large “forgiveness” can be accomplished without somebody “eating” it.

        The taxpayer will eat it. That’s how it’s always been and always will be.

        1. The taxpayer will eat it. More likely, anyone dependent on the value of a US $ will eat it, whether or not they pay any taxes at all.

    2. I first entered the full-time adult U.S. work force on March 1, 1987, the year when Alan Greenspan bailed out the Black Monday stock market crash. This event gave rise to the Greenspan Put and the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets executive order.

      By now I’m starting to get accustomed to economic governance by bubbles and bailouts.

  8. The US has NO leaders. Just spenders.
    Last attempt at any sort of budget control was 2011 with Budget Control Act (1 year of sequester before Congress voted to Screw This). I laughed at Speaker of the House John Boehner when he would often use code “we need to have an adult conversation” rather than explicitly saying there needs to be a curtailment in entitlements.

    1. “ there needs to be a curtailment in entitlements.”
      Amen to that. Too bad we just added 4 trillion of “entitlements” in 6 months. Remember TARP? Or most of us saying no to GM Bailout or jeEzus, even AIG? They are peanuts compared to current “stimulus.”

  9. Here in Portland, Oregon, there is this first come, first served law for tenants that the first qualified applicant gets the property. It seems that landlords with rental homes are lowering their standards, that used to require incomes 3 times rent, are moving towards 2.5 and even 2 times rent. Ironically, that’s still more restrictive than borrowing for a home in the Portland area, and why it’s much more fortuitous to rent. Since evictions are not allowed, I guess the standard is more like 0-times rent, where you make it appear that you have the income, then you move in and “live your best life.”

    Rental inventory where I live in the suburbs is pretty low, but some distressed rentals are starting to go on the market asking for over twice the market rent while also being listed on the MLS for $100K over their market value. In Downtown Portland, well, no way I would ever live there, but that’s where the “fire sales” are starting to show up.

      1. As long as foreclosures and evictions are not allowed, everything is free. And if you live downtown, no way anyone going to start posting eviction and foreclosure notices. A little tear gas mixed with smoke never harmed anybody and who wouldn’t want to live in downtown Portland with the jovial, vibrant street culture. For free rent, what do they say, no risk, no reward?

        1. For free rent, what do they say, no risk, no reward? In places like Portland, Minneapolis, and Kenosha, add “no roof”

    2. some distressed rentals are starting to go on the market asking for over twice the market rent while also being listed on the MLS for $100K over their market value

      The new form of Zillow’s old “Make Me Move” price?

    3. some distressed rentals are starting to go on the market asking for over twice the market rent while also being listed on the MLS for $100K over their market value

      This never works.

  10. I’m going to make a point that usually isn’t made.

    In theory, Government workers came about because of need to service the private sector working class population. Examples would be the Police, public education teachers, regulation gov workers, IRS, CDC, I could go on and on.

    If a Government worker thinks they have job security just because they work for the Government, the demise of the private sector working class would gut the government sector also. Private sector jobs float all boats.
    Here you got gov paid Police that the nuts want to defund.
    So, I contend that power factions today threaten the survival of the United States as a whole.

    Commie bribes that big Government going to take care of you by their ideas of equity redistribution are pipe dreams. It never works out in real practice as failed Communist States have proven.
    Actually Communist theory has got to be the most unfair economic system ever devised. It’s proposes that people will work real hard and be productive and they get the same amount as people who are lazy slackers. It’s taking away the merit based system of reward in favor of you get all your needs regardless of effort. It’s really the Doctrine of Parasites, as Carl Marx in real life really was.

    1. Private sector jobs float all boats.

      I would say it as “private sector production floats all boats”. Whether it meets the definition of job or not doesn’t really matter. It’s what keeps everyone fed and clothed and sheltered and armed against the bad guys.

    2. I think it’s pretty naive to believe that government is there for the people. It’s the instrument by which the corporations control the people. The government employees are accomplices and mercenaries to a system that benefits the 1%s, and thy get cut some good deals to work for the corporations.
      The only good news is that it has almost always been the same.
      Just read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discourse_on_Voluntary_Servitude

      1. “This is the
        establishment, as it were the permanent and continuing…
        of a hierarchy of subordinate allies, a loyal band of retainers,
        praetorians and bureaucrats. La Boétie himself considers this
        factor “the mainspring and the secret of domination, the support
        and foundation of tyranny.”44 Here is a large sector of society
        which is not merely duped with occasional and negligible
        handouts from the State; here are individuals who make a
        handsome and permanent living out of the proceeds of
        despotism. Hence, their stake in despotism does not depend on
        illusion or habit or mystery; their stake is all too great and all too
        real. A hierarchy of patronage from the fruits of plunder is thus
        created and maintained: five or six individuals are the chief
        advisors and beneficiaries of the favors of the king. These halfdozen in a similar manner maintain six hundred “who profit
        under them,” and the six hundred in their turn “maintain under
        them six thousand, whom they promote in rank, upon whom they
        confer the government of provinces or the direction of finances,
        in order that they may serve as instruments of avarice and
        cruelty, executing orders at the proper time and working such
        havoc all around that they could not last except under the
        shadow of the six hundred…”45
        In this way does the fatal hierarchy pyramid and permeate
        down through the ranks of society, until “a hundred thousand,
        and even millions….

      2. I think it’s pretty naive to believe that government is there for the people. It’s the instrument by which the corporations control the people.

        Just the other day, you were telling us how great the European countries and governments are because they take such good care of their people! Oh wait, I guess now you’re talking only about the evil US gov’t. LOLz.

    1. I warned you the past two days of the suspicious action in UVXY and TVIXF, which should’ve gone down as the Fed’s Ponzi markets hit new highs, but instead went up – suggesting the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate was stealthily betting against their own Ponzi. Not the first time they’ve set up the retail muppets for a reaping. Ka-CHING!!

  13. Just a hunch, but today looks like the kind of day where the PPT is not going to be able to save the market, that the sell pressure is much too extreme.

    1. Couldn’t they turn it around if that were a priority? There’s still time…

      I have trouble with grasping the limits of intervention when Quantitative Easing is Unlimited.

      2. This is just volatility. Unless we see another March V, I’m not budging until we see 1) election 2) vaccine approval and delivery date.

          1. Given the massive public suspicion of the scamdemic and those profiting from it, good luck getting even the dullest of the sheeple to line up for a vaccine that was developed as part of a crash program called “Operation Warp Speed.” No thanks. I’ll take my chances with the coronavirus instead.

          2. I predict we’re going to see movement in the home treatment realm HCQ/IVM) by the end of the year. Then you will be in a much better position to take your chances with the virus without a vaccine. I am optimistic for a vaccine.

          3. Then you will be in a much better position to take your chances with the virus without a vaccine.

            My family is fairing quite well without masks or a vaccine. It’s the response to COVID that is causing the problems.

          4. You and your family should be grateful that none of them were long-haulers or had co-morbidities that landed them in the hospital. But by all means, walk around without masks. Just stay away from others.

  15. Tesla stock is already down 20% from its peak just a few days ago. Imagine taking that kind of loss as an “investor.” That being said, my speculative purchase of a platinum eagle was ill-timed. The price has dropped from $960 to $885. I don’t care, as I did it for fun. I will hold onto it for a while and watch the market. I kind of enjoy it.

    1. Might be safer collecting SIG SAUER(s). Unused, they’ll hold their resale value, and if the hordes stampede they’ll have intrinsic value.

      1. You’ve mentioned it twice, and I am going to take your advice. I will cash in my platinum eagle and buy a .357 Sig with the proceeds. Always wanted one of them.

      2. My friend collected firearms, pistols mostly. He died, and his wife did really well parting-out his collection. Sold like hotcakes, and a great return on investment, a worthwhile hobby. FWIW, until I was forty, I pissed away lots of money and suffered lots of depreciation, but I had a great time!

  16. Lotsa crater on Wall Street today.

    It’s good to remember that it’s all driven by electrons in a computer memory…

    1. If it was driven by fundamental values, it never would have been this high to begin with.

      Based on the historic average (1940 to 2019) ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP, the S&P 500 should be at about 1450.

      And let’s not forget that for something to be an average, it has to be below average some of the time. And much of that time was a period when the U.S. was the world’s most powerful and dynamic country, and a net creditor. And not broke.

    2. It’s good to remember that it’s all driven by electrons in a computer memory… And let us all pray those machines never stop running.

      1. “…And let us all pray those machines never stop running…”

        Nothing that a good nuclear EMP pulse couldn’t do.

        Side bar #1: If your into electronics, you might of noted that there has been quite a surge in recent years restoring tube based electronic devices, such as radios, tuners and power amplifiers.. Partly because analog provides superior sound, and partly because tube devices are EMP immune.

        Side bar #2: Every financial institution is doing the best they can to push you (the customer) off of paper based documentation and onto electronic. Don’t let them do it. Electronic can be convenient, but insist on paper backup. If they won’t provide (which BTW, is against the law) print your own paper backups. Yes, it is a lot of work, but ask yourself how much work to re-construct a paper trail of any of your financial accounts?

        1. That’s exactly why I continue to have all of my bank and investment statements come in the mail, despite their pleas for me to “go paperless.”

    3. It’s good to remember that it’s all driven by electrons in a computer memory…

      How does the FED successfully navigate algo-trading? Couldn’t the algos stick a fork in the FED’s eye?

    5. “Lotsa crater on Wall Street today.”

      Maybe the Plunge Protection Team started the Labor Day weekend early, shotgunning long neck beer and chasing the thong bikinis down in Fort Lauderdale?

  17. I just saw the DOW eclipse the -1,000 number. There’s something about 4 digits down that catches your attention.

    2. Up next: Earning$🎉 👏 … 🙊🙉🙈

      x1 $ector: Aviation job lo$$e$ ($ince March 2020 … ’till now) … (-350,000)

  18. Thee.🍊.jesus: “Trade.War$.i$.Ea$y!” … “Greate$t eCONomy ever!” … “& only I, can fix it!”I

    $ad

    U$ trade deficit $urges in July to highe$t in 12 year$

    AP news / By MARTIN CRUTSINGER / today

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. trade deficit surged in July to $63.6 billion, the highest level in 12 years, as import$ jumped by a record amount.

    The Commerce Department reported that the July deficit, the gap between what America buys and what it sells to foreigners, was 18.9% higher than the June deficit of $53.5 billion. It was the largest monthly deficit since July 2008 during the 2007-2009 recession.

    The July deficit increase was driven by a record 10.9% increase in imports which rose to $231.7 billion. Exports were also up but by a smaller 8.1% to $168.1 billion.

    When Donald Trump campaigned for president in 2016 he pledged to sharply lower the country’s large trade deficits, especially with China, which for years has been the country with the largest trade surplus with the United States.

    But despite a number of high-profile trade battles and a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, America’s trade deficits have remained stubbornly high.

    For July, the deficit with China in goods totaled $31.6 billion, an 11.5% increase from the June imbalance.

    The goods deficit with Mexico hit a record high of $10.6 in July. Trump has claimed the new free trade deal he has negotiated with Mexico and China will be a boon for American workers and businesses.

    The United States ran a deficit in goods trade of $80.1 billion in July, the highest on record. The U.S. surplus in services, such as banking and insurance, declined to $17.4 billion, the smallest services surplus since August 2012 and a reflection in part of the decline in airline travel during the pandemic.

  19. “‘What is going to do is put a lot of mom and pops in foreclosure or in a very difficult position to pay their bills. Especially if you have a large group of tenants who are not paying at all,’ said property owner Gustavo Gonzalez.”

    Isn’t the plan for a Biden bailout to make all California property HODLers whole after Inauguration Day?

    1. “Woman Assaulted 12-Year-Old Boy Over Trump Sign”

      Adults should not expose their minor children to politics or religion until they are old enough to decide for themselves.

      1. Is that like, “She was dressed do provocatively, I couldn’t help but rap her?”

        Just asking for a friend.

    1. Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      Markets volatility
      Speculation in tech derivatives points to wild swings
      Markets predict elevated volatility after burst of trading in call options on Apple and Tesla
      The Nasdaq 100 is up 42% this year compared with 11% for the S&P 500
      © AP
      Richard Henderson and Michael Mackenzie in New York and Richard Waters in San Francisco 6 hours ago

      A speculative frenzy in derivatives on US technology stocks is rippling through financial markets, signalling more large swings in the coming months after a rally that has broken records.

      Expectations for future volatility in the Nasdaq 100, a benchmark dominated by Apple and a handful of other tech giants, soared to a 16-year high relative to the rest of the market this week, ahead of a sharp market sell-off that hit stocks on Thursday.

      Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet were all hit by the sell-off.

      The Cboe Nasdaq 100 Volatility index, which measures expected turbulence, climbed above 37 on Wednesday — 10 points clear of the equivalent gauge for the broader S&P 500 index. The difference between the two has not been so wide since May 2004, when markets were still working through the aftermath of the dotcom bust.

      The outlook for tech stocks has become one of the most discussed, and heavily bet upon, features of the market rebound since March.

      Bullish investors have been placing large bets in the options market that eye-popping rallies in popular individual stocks such as Apple and Tesla will continue.

      At the same time, many traders are expressing unease that the rally could head into trouble. Though both benchmarks are at all-time highs, the Nasdaq 100 is up 42 per cent this year compared with 11 per cent for the S&P 500.

      “Fundamentally, it doesn’t make a lot of sense,” Jim Tierney, head of US growth equities at AllianceBernstein, said of the August rally in tech stocks, suggesting that “something else beyond fundamentals is behind the move”.

      “Huge retail volume” and “abnormal call [option] volume in the biggest tech names” had appeared to play a part, he said, though it was “hard to say which is the chicken and which is the egg”.
      …

  24. ‘I believe that this new regulation — and even greater eviction crisis that we will be seeing come 2021 — will cause a significant decline in multifamily values.’”

    I love the smell of burning speculators in the morning. It smells like…victory.

  25. The extension provided ‘tremendous hardship’ for property owners in the Silver State.

    It’s never just hardship. It’s always “tremendous hardship.”

    Cry me a river, speculators.

  26. “Patrick Weir said his tenants stopped paying rent in April. ‘I’m being taken advantage of,’ Weir said.

    Being a landlord in Deadbeat Nation ain’t all it’s cracked up to be, Patrick.

  27. “Bay Area property owners are concerned the new eviction bill signed by Governor Gavin Newsom will lead to foreclosures.

    Say, Bay Area property owners, you mind sharing with which party you’ve been voting for since time immemorial?

  28. ‘But this deal should never have happened. The brokers did not get the best price for their seller. They did not fulfill their fiduciary responsibility as brokers. It is a shameful moment for the industry.’”

    Three things:

    1. Millions of real estate deals since Housing Bubble 1.0 should never have happened.
    2. The notion of any realtor performing his or her fiduciary duty towards their “clients” is laughable.
    3. The REIC industry has no shame.

    1. If you read the article the property was bought by someone who also owns other property in the same building.

  29. From Crain’s New York:

    Two-thirds of NY restaurants won’t make it through the year, survey indicates

    Also: Cuomo gives malls green light to reopen but holds back on indoor dining

    I went to a Kroger chain and a Sprouts today. Both were almost empty, continuing a trend I’ve noted for weeks. Meat prices way down. BI rib-eye (choice) was $4.97 a LB. Organic chicken less than a buck a LB. A few days ago at the chain, I noticed an aisle floor was filthy. I’ve never seen that before.

    1. When that expensive jacket you really like but don’t buy because of the ridiculous price goes on sale for 5%, do you rush in and buy it? Of course not. This little 5% off sale on stocks is nothing. I’m looking for 75% off.

      2. It’s hard to imagine our plunge protection authorities not stepping in with drastic measures before prices fell by 75%.

        That said, Ben has posted a number of 50% off wishing price examples for housing.

    2. “1 week ago levels” – ha. Good to keep in perspective. I have a feeling we’ll be seeing a couple more -1000 days between now and November.

  31. “I am standing between them,
    and your Second Amendment”

    DJT live in Latrobe, PA only 5 minutes ago…

    1. Without the 2nd Amendment, all of the other amendments and “rights” are just words on a piece of paper. There’s a reason the globalist oligarchs are pushing their Democrat Quislings so hard to grab the guns.

  32. Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be.

    By Apoorva Mandavilli
    Aug. 29, 2020

    “We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus — that’s all,” Dr. Mina said. “We’re using that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making.”

    But yes-no isn’t good enough, he added. It’s the amount of virus that should dictate the infected patient’s next steps. “It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue,” Dr. Mina said.

    In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.

    In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said.

    Other experts informed of these numbers were stunned.

    “I’m really shocked that it could be that high — the proportion of people with high C.T. value results,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “Boy, does it really change the way we need to be thinking about testing.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

    1. No medical test gives perfect results. And taking positive results from a self-selected sample of tested individuals as the estimated number of cases is bound to give a very poor estimate.

      In particular, if asymptomatic cases are a significant share of the total and these individuals are systematically excluded from testing, the estimated number of cases will be an undercount.

      1. Police officers killed by gunfire 2020 = 31

        Police officers died of deeth.👾 2020 = 101

        👀 …”🎤📢 … it’s just the common.cold folk$!” Ra$h.Limpbaugh$

        Is it x1 deeth.👾.death every 80 seconds or 81?

        1. Police officers died of deeth.👾 2020 = 101

          Source please? Comorbidities, if any? Your last claim about DJT encouraging people to vote twice was quickly and easily debunked.

          2. Voting x2 in ALL x50 $tates & U$ Territories is a FELONY.

            (you don’t need a $trip.mall liaryer to know that civics lesson)

            Repubican dirty.trick$ 101 = “Hangin’ Chad!, Hangin’ Chad!, Hangin’ Chad!”

            $ad

          3. Facts & folded flags …

            My BIL has a folded flag. How many of these deaths were “with” not “of.” How many officers die a year? Context!

            Voting x2 in ALL x50 $tates & U$ Territories is a FELONY.

            Everyone can agree with this statement. What you previously claimed was that DJT promoted voting twice, which he did not.

          5. “How many of these deaths were “with” not “of.” ”

            yer squirmin’ & wigglin’ … $ad

            Thee.deeth.👾, still spreading … munch, munch, munch …

            Maybe 250,000+ deeth.👾.deaths before Nov & chilling winter winds cometh.

            (Eye for one, would knot like to get 2020 flu & also thee deeth.👾 too! Yikes!)

          7. “Source with full context?”

            Self.$ource 👌, or just keep on, keepin’ on! 🙈🙉🙊 … Kneel True.Believe! ✌🍷

          9. Feel free to be his reference librarian, eye’m busy watchin’ a combine.demolish.derby. cheers 🍷

          12. The data look pretty not fake…especially the big spike in monthly police deaths after March. Between COVID-19 and BLM riots, it’s been a very long year for police officers.

            “Share this Honor Roll
            View Statistics for Year 2020
            Total Line of Duty Deaths: 184

            9/11 related cancer 3
            Aircraft accident 1
            Assault 1
            Automobile crash 15
            COVID19 101
            Drowned 3
            Duty related illness 2
            Gunfire 31
            Gunfire (Inadvertent) 4
            Heart attack 5
            Motorcycle crash 2
            Struck by vehicle 7
            Vehicle pursuit 2
            Vehicular assault 7

            Total Deaths by Month
            January 12
            February 9
            March 16
            April 38
            May 27
            June 20
            July 37
            August 23
            September 2”

          14. It’s irrelevant.

            No, it’s not. Just looking at the pictures you can see that a number of them are significantly overweight.

      2. “No medical test gives perfect results.”

        Yup, 85 to 90 percent is a ways from perfect.

        “In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles,”

        1. Very telling how the MSM and the Soros sponsored “fact checkers” came out of the woodwork flapping and screaming about this story. 🙂

          Why the ‘COVID-19 killed only 6%’ argument is wrong

          Many people who have died of COVID-19 may have been closer to death than the rest of us, but the fact is the virus killed them before their time.

          Justin Lessler and Lucy D’Agostino McGowanOpinion contributors

          https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/09/02/why-covid-19-killed-only-6-argument-wrong-column/3454179001/

          1. “The data look pretty not fake”

            To your post above.

            Are we to believe that police officers are the only profession that 100% of COVID-19 deaths are from only COVID-19 and the rest of the population is 6%?

            The tower sees you circling and flapping and they have cleared you for landing.

          2. Cuz COVID-19 deaths should be counted differently than the deaths due to every other disease. Thanks for enlightening me…now I finally get it!

          3. COVID-19 deaths should be counted differently than the deaths due to every other disease

            That indeed was the ruling of the CDC back in April, in their changes to death certificate guidance.

          4. The thing I think about is that for decades a high percentage of old people in nursing homes die by regular flu, colds, pneumonia, and even germs in the hospitals. Did the medical profession care before that old people were polished off by this?
            The nursing homes were for most part hospice situations for people with terminal conditions. Many were bedridden and not able to walk.
            So, how long these old people would of lasted prior to covid-19 is a average of 6 months according to stats I read.

            Further I think people need to know that the medical patients are rated on the ability to thrive, which determines if they are going to give aggressive medical treatment or not.
            So a article on how much longer these old people would of survived is BS because health care was being rationed for what they considered non thriving people with terminal conditions. DONT LET THEM KID YOU, that isn’t how the system works. In fact I dare any Doctor or Nurse to dispute this. The entire medical community knows this.
            The facts that I mention above have bearing on this idea that Gov was going to save you from Covid 19 , when the overall policy for older people on rationing health care is ” inability to thrive standard”.

    2. Dr. Mina is really making a splash in this arena. He is advocating for the large-scale (hundreds of millions) production of 15-minute paper saliva at-home tests. They don’t detect very low levels of coronavirus, but they detect levels where the patient is contagious.

      Ideally, every man woman and child would have a stock of tests at home. Everyone would test themselves every morning. If they test contagious, they have to isolate. If they test negative, they go about their day as usual. If the test returns a false result, no problem. The infection would be detected the next day.

      Assuming that infectious people would self-isolate as required, the epidemic would be squelched within WEEKS. All that is left is to approve a medication for those who are infected and in isolation, to prevent hospitalization and death, and to alleviate the suffering and shorten the time that they are infectious.

      The science for ALL of this exists! They know how to make the paper tests, but there’s a regulatory hole at the FDA because we’re not sure if the test is a diagnostic test or a public health tool. No company will spend the $$ to make the tests until there’s authorization. We also have the at-home treatments, as you know. We could stamp this out very quickly.

      1. Local news poll WPEC CBS 12 West Palm Beach 5 minutes ago

        Do you think it is safe to bring kids to playground?

        Yes 69%

        Running in circles flapping arms and screaming NO! 31%

      2. Re: per Covid tests::
        Would be good to see if any companies are working on this. I can’t imagine that Trump and Navarro would ALMOST give $785 Million to Kodak (!) but not help fund this. FWIW KODK will *Never* happen.

    1. “according to the latest Market Trends Report from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.”🤣

      As a noted economist said so eloquently, “I can ask 50k for my 10-year-old Chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that price? So it is with rapidly depreciating assets like houses and cars.”

      He’s right…. Not a buyer in sight.

      San Ramon, CA Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Bay Area Housing Market Turns Toxic On Rampant Appraisal Fraud

      https://www.zillow.com/san-ramon-ca-94582/home-values/

    1. Poor RobinHood fanbois!

      CNBC TV
      Trader Talk
      Traders say the sell-off was overdue, has more to go: ‘Robinhood traders need to get burned a bit’
      Published Fri, Sep 4 20207:02 AM EDT
      Bob Pisani
      A pedestrian wearing a face mask looks at a smartphone while passing in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, on Monday, July 20, 2020.
      Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

      You knew this was coming.

      The market internals had been flashing warning signs for a couple weeks: very few new highs, very sloppy advance/decline line, low short interest, and a lot of talk about FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and TINA (There Is No Alternative).

      All signs of frothiness.

      So what is this? Is this a one-day event? Is it a 10% correction that lasts a couple months, and then reverts to growth, which is what happened in January 2018, when the market was similarly stretched? Or the start of a longer-term sell-off?
      …

  38. Any thoughts on whether the Fed’s Unlimited Quantitative Easing electronic printing press going brrrrrr at a rate north of $1 billion per hour since the March pandemic measures began could have had a distortionary effect on asset prices this summer?

    1. This guy writes as though nothing unusual went down this year in the financial markets…

      Marketwatch.com
      Mark Hulbert
      Opinion: Why ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ was money-losing advice for stock investors in 2020
      Published: Sept. 4, 2020 at 6:55 a.m. ET
      By Mark Hulbert
      Seasonal market-timing pattern makes sense in just one year out of four
      …

    2. Not to undercut the considerable heft of the next article I am about to post, but don’t central banks always want governments and fiscal policy to provide cover for their wealth reallocation schemes?

      1. Equities
        Ruffer’s MacInnes and Ker:
        Money printer won’t always go ‘brrrrr’
        – Central banks are running out of ammunition
        – US markets continue to surge, while Main Street feels the Covid pinch
        David Brenchley
        27 August 2020

        Investors are at risk of falling into a “bull market trap”, with the dual tailwinds of ever-decreasing interest rates and the so-called ‘Fed put’ unlikely to sustain stockmarkets indefinitely, according to Ruffer’s Duncan MacInnes and Fiona Ker.

        The pair of investment directors worried that valuation measurements across the board in the US market are “flashing red simultaneously”. “The disconnect between what investors are pricing in and the sobering economic reality [of the Covid-19 recession] is quite stark,” MacInnes told clients on Thursday (26 August).

        “If you look at price-to-sales, price-to-book, cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings, or the Buffett indicator [market capitalisation-to-GDP] [they all] suggest we are in the most expensive 10% of observations in the last 100 years.

        “[That] does pose the question: are we in the best 10% of economic observations in the last 100 years?

        “Each of these metrics has a decent case for being predictive of future returns to investors. They also all look at different things: some are measures of sales, some are measures of profitability, others focus on the balance sheet, but all of them flashing red simultaneously would suggest some caution.

        “This is a key reason why we have our lowest weighting to the US equity market in 14 years in our portfolio.”

        Ker added that despite “pessimism on Main Street”, encapsulated by a swathe of bankruptcies seen due to the pandemic, “the market shows some signs of frothiness”.

        Ker said: “The dotcom boom famously had its day traders, while the rally since 23 March has been cheer-led by [Barstool Sports blog founder] Dave Portnoy.

        “Leading an army of Twitter followers investing their stimulus cheques, Dave livestreams his trading to his 1.7 million followers and uses phrases such as ‘stocks only go up’ and ‘Warren Buffett is washed up, I am the captain now’.

        “In our experience, these sorts of oddities tend to cross-over into the mainstream more often at market tops than they do at market bottoms.”

        Further, MacInnes noted, some of the trends that sustained the bull market throughout the 2010s are likely to dissipate in the near future. Interest rates plunging from 17% to zero over the past 40 years, for instance, allowed all risk assets to rise simultaneously.

        However, MacInnes contended, “this trend has probably run its course”. “It seems unlikely that [interest rates] will spend the next 40 years falling,” he argued.

        Ker noted the bulls had been emboldened by the fact that “central banks and governments are clearly determined to print and spend their way out of this and that is surely supportive to equity prices”.

        The recent popularity on social media of the ‘money printer go brrrrr’ meme and a recent Economist front page on ‘free money’, she contended, were “the same as ‘don’t fight the Fed’, a concept that has been around in markets for decades”.

        Indeed, said MacInnes, investors have benefited from the so-called ‘Fed put’, which contends that central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, would lower rates or call on quantitative easing every time financial markets or economic conditions worsened.

        “So, with the downside capped, investors and companies have been able to take on more risk than they otherwise would, and why not when the Fed has your back?

        “But this theme is becoming more complicated. Central bankers have admitted that they are running out of tools, and they have called on governments and fiscal policy to help them achieve their goals. This is a sign that the era of central bank omnipotence is coming to an end.”
        …

        1. “Intere$t rate$ plunging from 17% to zero (0)% over the pa$t 40 year$”

          Geez, sometimes after a good night’s rest, eye wake up thinking that in 10hrs time, the $helter.$hack.$peculation.debacle$ will have di$olved away. Then eye pour a cup.of.Joe ☕, think of of those million$ re$idential & commercial rooftop$ & the a$$ociated collection of property taxe$ & the recycling ATM withdrawl$ and eye think to myself, who would let anything de$troy that $it.u.a.$hun?

          Naw, thee De$truction.parade is long, long, & long and there’$ alotta marchin’.ca$t.participant$ $tretching far beyond what the eye can $ee.

          Then eye refill my cup.o’.☕ & think, what’s gonna happen thi$.day?

  39. The VIX is trying mightily to break out on the high side. Is there ever a point where the Plunge Protection Team completely loses control and the wheels fall off the bus, just before it lurches over the cliff?

    CBOE Volatility Index
    Last Updated: Sep 4, 2020 at 8:56 a.m. CDT Delayed quote
    33.63 0.03 0.09%

      1. My new VIX song….
        U.V.X.Y. You ain’t got no alibi. You Volatile! You Volatile!
        – JPow in Wildcats, 1986

  40. Oil is already off 2% this morning, and it’s early.

    Did word get around that most cars are spending their days sitting in the garaage, most airplanes are tucked away in their hangars, and many a boat is remains tied up at the dock this summer, severely crimping fuel demand?

  41. There is one asset that seems to be holding up pretty well through the market carnage, and Cramer deserves credit for making the call in the MSM.

    1. Mad Money
      Jim Cramer: A U.S. dollar rally might be in the cards, according to the charts
      Published Tue, Aug 18 2020
      6:56 PM EDT
      Tyler Clifford
      Key Points
      – CNBC’s Jim Cramer broke down a “contrarian” call from trading expert Larry Williams, who sees signs that the American greenback could be bottoming.
      – “The charts, as interpreted by the great Larry Williams, suggest that the U.S. dollar could be ready to come out of its funk and start rallying again,” the “Mad Money” host said.
      – “If he’s right, we’re going to have to reassess a whole host of American companies that’ve been getting a huge boost from our weakened currency, and by reassess I mean lighten up on stocks of companies with big overseas sales,” he said.

  42. This is setting up as a humdinger of a September market rout. Lots of dumb borrowed money used to buy stocks is currently being sent off to money heaven. And we haven’t even had any announcements of major financial entities collapsing, just yet. If a repeat of 2009 timing is in the cards, that won’t begin until next week.

    Stay tuned for mor crater!

    1. The stawk market is deep state’s last ammo to topple Trump in November. Russia, Corona….all have badly misfired. Time for at least a 40% crash in stawks in next couple of months. That should be good enough.

  43. Cryptocurrencies are getting dumped as the Robinhood bagholders scramble to raise cash to cover their margin calls. Hehehehe…funny how the Bitcoin fanbois and their trolling have vanished entirely from the gold boards since yesterday.

    2. “Once again lumber futures are limit down”

      Trees, (even burnt one’s) never regrow. Unlike say, Oil which recreates itself every other day.

    1. All the people that have lost their livelyhood, or will lose their means of survival could become homeless as a result of this lockdown.

      We already had to many homeless as it was prior to Covid-19. So it would not be surprising to me if some effort might be made to prevent this from some form of bail out. This should be means tested of course but Gov. Bail Outs fail to do this to prevent undeserved relief by Gov.
      It’s so strange how Big Corporation donated to BLM, while they could care less for small business that has been depleted the most by this lockdown. I think Big Corporations just think they will take the small business market share, and become even bigger monopolies.

      The Salon Owner that turned in Pelosi is toast in being able to survive a long term shut down. This went from flattening the curve to shore up the medical system to long term shut down .
      Extortion by California Public education teachers saying in summary that they won’t go back to work unless Defund The Police is implemented in California has nothing to do with virus and being safe.

      It’s really alarming how many entities are supporting BLM when they are a Commie group that riot , loot and kill, and recently have been chanting ” Death to America”.
      Does anybody doubt that one of our Political Parties has been hijacked by anti American forces.
      The racism theme , along with Whites are bad, is just so bogus. It’s simply how to manufacture a enemy. The book THE TRUE BELIEVER, covers how false movements are formed by the creating of a enemy. So their enemy is the United States and all the evil White people running around in it.
      Don’t accept this attempt in viflying the White race.

      1. t’s really alarming how many entities are supporting BLM when they are a Commie group that riot , loot and kill, and recently have been chanting ” Death to America”.

        Like the Sportsball Industrial Complex?

        If the NFL was already concerned about falling TV ratings, they ain’t seen nothing yet.

        1. I used to love to watch the NBA when I was young in the early to mid 90s, when Jordan was playing. It has morphed into a bunch of whiny, entitled gazillionaires peddling social justice BS and taking “rest days” instead of playing an entire season. Just pathetic. I’ll never watch it again.

    1. Psst, The Gateway Pundit has been deemed a conspiracy theory publication by our esteemed educator after consulting Wikipedia.

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