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Now It’s More Prevalent Than Ever, Do You Prefer To Sell Or Do You Need To?

Two reports from the Wall Street Journal. “The FTSE Nareit Equity Apartments index, which tracks the stock prices of publicly traded apartment landlords, is down more than 21% year to date. A big reason: Dramatic cuts in rents in coastal cities like San Francisco and New York City by landlords like Equity Residential and AvalonBay Communities Inc. have sent shudders through the market. In an earnings call last month, Paul Beldin, the chief financial officer of Apartment Investment & Management Co., noted that rent collections had been more challenging in areas where local governments had imposed restrictions on evictions for unpaid rent.”

“‘When somebody tells you, ‘You don’t have to pay your rent,’ people tend not to pay,’ Mr. Beldin said.”

“The share of nongovernment-backed mortgage bonds secured by student housing that are delinquent rose to a peak of 13.7% on July 1, according to Trepp LLC. That is up from 9.7% at the beginning of March and the highest figure since at least 2005. The sector was showing the signs of strain even before the pandemic because of overbuilding. Take a portfolio of five student-housing properties near the University of Connecticut in Mansfield, Conn. Income fell sharply in recent years because of competition from newer buildings, according to watch list commentary on the buildings’ mortgage bonds.”

“The properties’ owners stopped making loan payments and were more than 90 days behind on their $15 million mortgage as of August, according to Trepp. In a statement, the property’s owner, CT Liberty Group, said it has since reached a consent agreement with its lender. ‘Virtually overnight, we lost 90 percent of our tenants and the income that came with that’ when the university closed its campus in March, the company said.”

From Providence Online in Rhode Island. “On Westminster and Thayer Streets, you’ve likely already noticed a change: suspiciously easy parking, crowd-less sidewalks, and perhaps a quiet that seems unnerving when you’re in the heart of a city. ‘The colleges and universities are such a part of the fabric of the City that to rip it out will really leave a gaping hole,’ says Kristen Adamo, CEO of the Providence Warwick Convention & Visitors Bureau.”

From Spectrum News on Florida. “Deltona resident Jayne Rocco has been a landlord for about 25 years. Rocco felt she had no choice after a tenant at one of her Daytona Beach properties stopped paying rent in March. On June 1, Rocco filed for an eviction. But Florida’s eviction moratorium halted case proceedings, she said. Rocco pointed out that many small-time landlords like herself do not actually profit off the properties they lease, after mortgage payments, insurance, property taxes and necessary repairs are accounted for.”

“‘That’s what we pay our bills on. That’s our job. That’s our salary,’ Rocco said of the rent payments she and many other landlords have missed during the coronavirus pandemic. ‘[The tenants] don’t care. They’re just going to walk away. Landlords are never going to collect that money.'”

The Philadelphia Inquirer in Pennsylvania. “Touted as a boutique luxury apartment building in the nexus of a tony suburb just outside Philadelphia, the Delwyn in Bala Cynwyd planned to open in the spring and charge up to $2,430 a month for its biggest units. After the pandemic delayed construction, the Delwyn was ready to open in September. Concerned about filling its 87 unoccupied units, the building, developed by Federal Realty Investment Trust and managed by Greystar, decided to offer a concession: no rent due until the end of the year.”

From Mahoning Matters in Ohio. “Jeff Rickerman, president of the Mahoning Valley Real Estate Investors Association and also a housing provider, said he feels the moratorium leaves landlords holding the bill. ‘I think it’s an absolutely terrible idea,’ he told Mahoning Matters. ‘I don’t think it’s solving the problem at all. I think it creates many more problems than it solves. For most housing providers, they’re on a pretty razor-thin margin. … When you’ve paid everyone else that has to be paid each month, there’s not a whole lot left there. When someone’s paying short on the rent or not paying, you’re going into the negative extremely quickly.'”

“Instead, he foresees landlords going bust and banks clawing back properties, which may then sit vacant for a number of years. Under the new moratorium, tenants must notify landlords of pandemic hardship by issuing a legal declaration, signed by all adults in the household, that shows the individual either: expects to earn no more than $99,000 in 2020 (or $198,000 if filing a joint tax return).'”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The share of rental units offering concessions to tenants has almost doubled since early this year as COVID-19 has swept the country, according to a new study by Zillow. More than 30% of nationwide rentals are offering some kind of concessions. And in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, the share of landlords using giveaways is even larger — almost 39% in July compared with 22% a year earlier, Zillow reports. U.S. markets with the biggest share of rent concessions as of July included Washington, D.C. (57.5%); Charlotte, N.C. (53%); and Austin (47.1%).”

“Dallas-Fort Worth is currently the country’s fastest-growing apartment market, with more than 40,000 new units on the way. More than half of the new rental units under development in North Texas will open this year.”

From Real Estate Business Online on Texas. “Houston saw more than 80,000 units delivered between 2014 and 2018 and 24,872 multifamily units under construction in the first quarter of 2020 ‘Over the past two decades Houston has added the equivalent of the population of Austin to its ranks, and consistently employs more people each year,’ says Tom Melody. ‘It’s a very business-friendly climate with a comparatively affordable cost of living. If we can maintain reasonable job growth in the next few years, we’ll absorb the current oversupply and return to a rebalanced market.'”

“Cap rates have held steady at near 5.8 percent on average in the first half of 2020. Effective apartment rents average $1.22 per square foot, falling between Charlotte and Milwaukee in terms of affordability. And while the market average vacancy rate of 10.3 percent is up year to date, vacancy of stabilized properties is 9 percent, similar to the rate at the beginning of the year.”

From Mansion Global. “In California, ‘there are a lot of sellers that are contacting agents and just want to test the water, and if they’re able to get what they want, then they’ll sell,’ said Marco Rufo, an agent with The Agency in Los Angeles. ‘A lot of people are moving or buying homes elsewhere. But they’ll say, ‘If you can’t get my number, I’m not going to market.'”

“In slower markets, sellers may want to explore an off-market sale to see if there’s any demand at all, and in high-demand areas, they may simply be assessing whether this is a savvy time to cash out of their property. ‘I had a call with a seller saying, ‘Can we go off-market so it’s not publicly available in case we decide not to sell, and to wait to get a better price next year,’ said Scott Hustis, a New York City-based broker with Compass’ Hustis/Jovanovic team. ‘Now it’s more prevalent than ever, [the question of] do you prefer to sell or do you need to?'”

“On a recent listing, however, said Andrew Barrocas, CEO of MNS Real Estate NYC, ‘I put it on as a quiet listing and it didn’t really get any interest, and now I’ve put it on the market [at a lower price] and realized more quickly that it was probably overpriced. You don’t want it to sit on the market.'”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “Precise information about population shifts in the Bay Area may not be available until after the release of 2020 census data. But more than fifty people responded to queries from The Chronicle to share their stories about moving, and reports from real estate and moving companies indicate a transformative shift, even if it cannot be measured precisely.”

“The number of people seeking price estimates to move out of the Bay Area was 46% higher this year than in June 2019 for Unigroup, which owns moving companies United Van Lines and Mayflower. Other moving companies, including U-Haul and Winter Moving and Storage, have also reported increased demand for trucks and moving services in the region.”

“The effect appears most dramatic in San Francisco proper. Rents have dropped between 14% and 15% year over year for one- and two-bedroom units in the city, and homes listed for sale have skyrocketed 96% in San Francisco, dramatically higher than every other metropolitan area but New York, according to data from Zillow.”

“San Francisco’s ‘demand score,’ or the relative interest in San Francisco sale listings compared to other markets on Realtor.com, has dropped 83 points since January, from 89 to 6 on a 100-point scale. The level of interest is by far the lowest it has been since at least September 2016. Average listing prices, which peaked at $2.75 million in January, have since fallen to $1.9 million — about where they were in 2017 and 2018, but significantly below 2019’s levels.”

“And those that have lingered because they love San Francisco’s arts and food scenes now see only the problems. ‘All the things that we love about the city are just gone right now,’ said Michelle Lai, a 16-year resident of the Mission District who moved south to a house in Capitola (Santa Cruz County) in mid-July.”

This Post Has 121 Comments
  1. ‘Average listing prices, which peaked at $2.75 million in January, have since fallen to $1.9 million’

    Eat yer crowz Thornberg.

    1. $2.75 million – $1.9 million = $875 thousand.

      AND

      (1.9 – 2.75) / 2.75 = -30.9% (hope I got that sign right!)

      At least prices aren’t off by over 50% (yet)!

  2. ‘Rocco pointed out that many small-time landlords like herself do not actually profit off the properties they lease, after mortgage payments, insurance, property taxes and necessary repairs are accounted for’

    Again, it’s important for companies to make money (cough, Elon, cough!).

    You paid too much Jayne.

    1. “Again, it’s important for companies to make money (cough, Elon, cough!).”

      – With-respect-to TSLA: +1 What a CARnival that company is. P.T. Barnum would be proud. At some point reality bites on TSLA stock. Are we there yet?

        1. Oh the humanity!

          Tesla Inc.
          TSLA
          Last Updated: Sep 8, 2020 at 12:46 p.m. EDT Real time quote
          $353.06
          -$65.46 -15.65%

        2. At least we can all agree that a correction was long overdue.

          Any thoughts on for how long the Fed will let the correction run before

          Stocks
          Published 1 hour ago
          Wall Street’s reality check as runaway market hits wall
          The sharp sell-off that began last Thursday has wiped out nearly 7.1% from the S&P 500 as of Tuesday

          By Ken Martin, FOXBusiness
          Fox Business Flash top headlines for September 8

          Wall Street’s run of record highs has come to an abrupt stop following a 3-day slide in tech stocks.

          The sharp sell-off that began last Thursday has wiped out nearly 7.1% from the S&P 500 as of Tuesday.

          The Nasdaq composite, home to Apple, Amazon, Zoom, Tesla and many other tech stocks that led the market’s remarkable five-month comeback from its lows in March, has lost more than 10% after setting an all-time high just four days ago.

          Analysts have said that a correction in the markets was overdue.

          1. Any thoughts on for how long the Fed will let the correction run before…electroshock therapy is used to jolt it up again?

          2. CR8R

            Market Extra
            The Nasdaq just marked the fastest 10% plunge in history–again
            Published: Sept. 8, 2020 at 4:35 p.m. ET
            By Mark DeCambre
            The Nasdaq Composite is now in correction, three sessions after booking a record high
            Referenced Symbols
            COMP
            -4.11%
            TSLA
            -21.06%
            AAPL
            -6.72%
            NDX
            -4.76%

            The bear is back in the pandemic era.

            After ushering in the ninth month of the year with record highs, it’s shaping up to be one of the worst starts to a September for the Nasdaq Composite Index — and the broader U.S. stock market — ever, as the wheel’s come off a bullish rally that had taken the technology-heavy index to unprecedented heights.

            On Tuesday, the day after the Labor Day holiday when markets in the U.S. were closed, the Nasdaq sank beneath a level that most market technicians view as kicking off a bearish trend: a decline from a recent peak of at least 10%.

          3. A couple weeks at the latest. Wall Street doesn’t forget who gave them tax cuts. If they want to keep the party going for another four years, they can’t allow any lulls or pauses for the next two months.

          4. Any thoughts on for how long the Fed will let the correction run before

            One day? It’s “off to the races” again. DOW up almost 700 points.

      1. P.T. Barnum

        There’s a reason one of Elon’s most vocal critics on Twitter has a carnival barker as his avatar.

    2. not actually profit off the properties

      That’s what we pay our bills on. That’s our job. That’s our salary

      Which is it Jayne? 25 years a landlord and no “salary”?

  3. “Dramatic cuts in rents in coastal cities like San Francisco and New York City by landlords like Equity Residential and AvalonBay Communities Inc. have sent shudders through the market.”

    The big national players landlords are not representative of the New York market, but perhaps they are the reason why rents are falling more in rich Manhattan than in not so rich Brooklyn.

    Here, landlords are holding back on big reductions so far.

    I took a couple of bike rides over the weekend. Anecdotally, Prospect Park in Brooklyn was full of young adults having picnics, same as always. While there were many people in Central Park in Manhattan, on the other hand, it is way down from what I am used to seeing there. And the streets of lower Manhattan were pretty empty.

    1. BTFD:

      ‘A Chinese private equity firm is looking to sell a stake in its large Manhattan hospitality portfolio at a discount, in one of the largest hotel offerings to hit the market since the start of the pandemic. Cindat USA is looking to sell a preferred equity stake in a portfolio of seven select-service Manhattan hotels it bought in 2016 as part of a joint-venture with Hersha Hospitality Trust. The company, which is backed by China’s Cinda Asset Management and Taikang Life Insurance, is eyeing pricing that would value that 1,087-room portfolio in the low-$400 million range, according to the brokers handling the listing.’

      ‘That’s a significant discount to the $571 million the partners paid for the portfolio four years ago, reflecting the dramatic shift the market’s taken during that time.’

      https://therealdeal.com/2020/09/01/cindat-looks-to-sell-manhattan-hotel-portfolio-at-discount/

      1. At this point, down half is what it would take for me to be interested in just about anything. Especially stocks.

        1. I agree on the stocks, but half might be a little too much to ask. I’m thinking to start layering in at about 35% down, which is a little below the March crash.

          1. start layering in at about 35% down

            If you look at the 20 year chart the “march crash” was an almost insignificant blip. Is our immediate economic future brighter than 10 years ago or darker? If it’s slightly brighter, go away until 75% off. If it’s darker…

  4. ‘Cap rates have held steady at near 5.8 percent on average in the first half of 2020…And while the market average vacancy rate of 10.3 percent is up year to date, vacancy of stabilized properties is 9 percent, similar to the rate at the beginning of the year’

    Houston was just as fooked prior to the CCP virus. I’ve heard tales out of Houston recently of those big triple level (or higher) apartments, less than a year old, who can’t pay vendors to keep the elevators going and are for sale at a $10 million loss on asking.

    How do those 5% cap rates look now?

    1. ‘Cap rates have held steady at near 5.8 percent on average in the first half of 2020…’

      and

      “How do those 5% cap rates look now?”

      – As you said in previous post: “You paid too much.”
      – But why did this happen? Because the economy has been massively distorted in order to keep the wheels from falling off the bus. This includes interest rate suppression as financial repression. There’s no price discovery when interest rates/cap. rates don’t reflect reality. However, because of the distortions, things get out of whack. Bubbles inflate, but then collapse. Rinse and repeat.
      – In a normal economy (what’s that?), a 5% cap. rate says property prices are WAY too expensive. Buy low and sell high says a cap. rate range of 10-14% is appropriate, but 5% is asking for trouble (read losses/BK).
      – I’m not an economist or RE investor, but some principles are timeless, and 5% cap. rates = buy high/sell low. 🙂

  5. ‘The share of nongovernment-backed mortgage bonds secured by student housing that are delinquent rose to a peak of 13.7% on July 1, according to Trepp LLC. That is up from 9.7% at the beginning of March and the highest figure since at least 2005. The sector was showing the signs of strain even before the pandemic because of overbuilding. Take a portfolio of five student-housing properties near the University of Connecticut in Mansfield, Conn. Income fell sharply in recent years because of competition from newer buildings’

    The article also mentions this:

    ‘Student housing has seen a surge of investment over the past decade as low returns on traditional real estate led institutions to seek out more obscure sectors of the property market. Investors were drawn to student housing because of a rise in college enrollment and because it was seen as generally more recession-proof’

    QE, low rates are ultimately deflationary.

  6. ‘he foresees landlords going bust and banks clawing back properties, which may then sit vacant for a number of years. Under the new moratorium, tenants must notify landlords of pandemic hardship by issuing a legal declaration, signed by all adults in the household, that shows the individual either: expects to earn no more than $99,000 in 2020 (or $198,000 if filing a joint tax return)’

    Yeah, this makes a lot of sense. Mouth hankey!

    1. That’s only one of several things the renter must sign to. They also need to make a good-faith effort to pay their rent, pursue government housing assistance, certify that they would either be homeless or move into close quarters, certify that they are unable to pay rent due to job loss/wage cuts, make partial payments, and they still owe back rent.

      I don’t have a clear idea where the burden of proof is. Can the LL evict them and it’s up to the tenant to prove all the conditions on the form are true? Or does the LL have to prove one of the conditions is false first?

      The only thing I don’t like is that they don’t mention that these same deadbeats just got $9600, per person, on top of unemployment.

      https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/declaration-form.pdf

      1. “just got $9600, per person“

        What’s the breakdown on this? Too many covid programs and bailouts to keep up with.

        1. 4 months x $2400, really, that’s all. I still don’t see how the govs allowed people to get $2400/month AND not have to pay rent at the same time. Sure, maybe there are gig-econs and 1099s that couldn’t get the payments, but they took a chance and should have saved up beforehand. I also suspect that many of those non-payers are illegal immigrants.

  7. Holy fook.

    $200,000 in combined income…but can’t pay the rent?

    “Under the new moratorium, tenants must notify landlords of pandemic hardship by issuing a legal declaration, signed by all adults in the household, that shows the individual either: expects to earn no more than $99,000 in 2020 (or $198,000 if filing a joint tax return).’”

  8. I got some issues with this:

    ‘A bill ready for Gov. Gavin Newsom’s signature may help keep homes in the hands of residents if a foreclosure crisis occurs, according to the office of state Sen. Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley, who sponsored the legislation.’

    ‘SB 1079, titled “Homes for Homeowners, Not Corporations,” would give tenants, families, housing nonprofits and local governments first dibs on foreclosed properties before corporations. The bill modifies how foreclosed properties are sold at an auction.’

    “We can’t afford a repeat of the foreclosure crisis when corporations gobbled up tens of thousands of homes, and significantly reduced home ownership among California residents,” Skinner said in a statement.’

    ‘The bill would also give local governments the authority to fine firms or other owners of properties for leaving homes vacant or blighted instead of refurbishing, renting or selling them. Fines could be up to $2,000 a day.’

    ‘Skinner’s bill would prohibit sellers from bundling homes for sale to one buyer. Homes would have to be sold one at a time to give people who want to live in them a chance to buy them.’

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/gov-newsom-poised-to-sign-bill-to-keep-foreclosed-homes-in-hands-of-residents/ar-BB18CbAY?ocid=hplocalnews

    Shacks were never bundled. What the GSE’s have done is bundle paper. As I’ve explained this was a crap offering. All over the country, with no way to evaluate them. Oh and since the foreclosure hasn’t happened you get to hire lawyers, all over the country, to kick out the FB’s. Except now you can’t!

    This is the thumb-sucking BS one would expect out of California.

    1. Seems like the laws are being rewritten to favor Democratic voters by reallocating property rights in their favor.

      I wonder about the constitutionality of this, along with a lot of other financial hanky panky that is currently going down to override the law in order to pick winners and losers based on political considerations.

      1. ” in order to pick winner$ and loser$ based on political con$ideration$”

        Too late, the picking$ has already been “Choo$en!” & Reallocated. 🎂🎉

        Where exactly did thee “pu$h.over” Powell’$ & Neo.$ocialist ‘merikan Munchin’$ unaudited & unaccounted $11+ Trillion’$ go? … Who?, What?, Why? 🙊🙉🙈

        More!, More!, More! 💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵+

    2. We have laws in place, yet once a crisis occurs the laws are suddenly “not good enough,” so they make up new ones. Kick these bums out.

      1. There’s big money to be made in suddenly having free insurance extended to cover your gambling losses!

    3. “would give tenants, families, housing nonprofits and local governments first dibs on foreclosed properties”

      This sounds a lot like what happens at HUD sales in certain designated zones, where special gov’t employees (teachers, police) and non-profits get first crack at buying, then only if no takers are ordinary owner-occupiers are allowed to bid, then finally investors.

      It would indeed be a special privilege, if only the starting bids weren’t so high and prices on the way down.

      Nevertheless, with so many gov’t-backed now fed-owned loans, welcome to the future, where non-profits, local gov’t and its employees get first crack.

  9. Corona rules for thee but not for me.

    San Francisco Government Buildings Keep Gyms Open, Crush Private Gym Owners

    By jackie ward • Published September 3, 2020 •

    For months, the city of San Francisco health order has prevented local gyms from opening its doors, but some city-owned gyms have been back open for months and are allowing city employees to use them, crushing private gym owners.

    “It’s shocking, it’s infuriating,” said Daniele Rabkin from Crossfit Golden Gate.

    She said she has done everything she can to keep her gym on Sutter Street alive.

    “Even though they’re getting exposed, there are no repercussions, no ramifications? It’s shocking,” she said.

    Rabkin even reached out to a couple police officers she knows in the neighborhood asking them if they needed a place to work out since their station gym was supposedly closed.

    But a text exchange appeared to show they did have access to the SFPD Northern District Police Station on FIllmore Street — and police said Thursday that safety and cleaning protocols, as well as occupancy limits, have been established in department gyms.

    “It just demonstrates that there seems to be some kind of a double standard between what city employees are allowed to do and what the residents of San Francisco are allowed to do,” said Dave Karraker, owner of MX3 Fitness in the Castro.

    He said there is a slight silver lining to this discovery.

    “What the city has unwillingly done is created this great case study that says that working out indoors is actually safe,” said Karraker. “So at this point, we’re just demanding that they allow us to have the same workout privileges for the citizens of San Francisco that the employees of San Francisco have.”

    Gyms for police officers aren’t the only ones open. A sign at the Hall of Justice gym shows rules for use as of July 1 for its patrons, which would include judges, lawyers, bailiffs, and paralegals.

    https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/san-francisco-government-buildings-keep-gyms-open-crush-private-gym-owners/2357438/

  10. “We don’t need NO stinkin’ masks!” …Tattoo Jake

    Deeth.👾 munch, munch, munch … $till.$preading!

    Sturgi$ motorcycle rally in South Dakota in August linked to more than 250,000 coronavirus case$, study finds

    MarketWatch / Published: Sept. 8, 2020 / By Ciara Linnane

    News comes a week after the first COVID-19 death linked to the 10-day event that drew more than 400,000 people was recorded.

    The 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota in August, which drew more than 400,000 people, has now been linked to more than 250,000 coronavirus cases, according to a study by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics.

    Using anonymized cellphone data from the rally, researchers in Germany found the bikers, who were filmed and photographed in crowded bars, restaurants and outdoor venues mostly without face masks, allowed for many of the “wor$t-ca$e $cenarios” for “$uper$preading.”

    The event “was prolonged, included individuals packed closely together, involved a large out-of-town population, and had low compliance with recommended infection countermeasures such as the use of masks,” the researchers wrote.

    The event will cost an estimated $12.2 billion in health-care cost$, they wrote. 🍻

    (That the interest & ability to trace so much human death, should come from a German study.)

    1. “News comes a week after the first COVID-19 death linked to the 10-day event that drew more than 400,000 people was recorded.”

      So 19 of 400,000 people, many of who were morbidly obese and old not to mention those old bikers completing their bucket list, died from https://youtu.be/rfh4Mhp-a6U COVID-19 and had no other health problems?

      LMAO

      Maybe they should have put on that San Francisco city employee force shield that keeps the pension sucking leaches healthy when they work out at the city-owned gyms.

      Or better yet, a BLM/Antifa invisible bubble that keeps those thousands of rioters and Looters returning night after night for months on end.

      Sorry Bub, but the numbers are vastly inflated and the people who have died from COVID-19 were for the most part were already very old and or very sick.

      1. for the most part

        94% according to the CDC.

        And 90% of the positive PCR tests should be negative according to a NYT expose, due to the magic of “amplification” in the testing method.

        Our collective stupid hurts.

      1. Yes, and there are still a lot of long-haulers who can barely drag themselves from the bed to the bathroom and back. Estimated 10-15% of symptomatic people. Will you be one of them? There is no way of knowing. The co-morbidities don’t apply. Long-haulers tend to be young and healthy and not obese. It strikes randomly. I would be interested to see how many of these bikers are long-haulers.

        1. So a handful of bikers get sick (probably from food poisoning from deranged BLM commie at a roadside diner) and a few kids here and there who could have any number of things (e.g., mono) and probably vape/smoke a mount everest sized pile of weed every week, out of a nation of 300+ million. Really?

          Am I talking to Special Ed from Crank Yankers? Cause thats beyond reeeeee-tahded.

        2. a lot of long-haulers who can barely drag themselves from the bed

          This has long been a risk for the 2% who are bipolar. My ex has this decades ago. She’d go through cycles of not being much able to drag herself out of bed and back for a couple of years at a time, then she’d have some barn burning high times.

          A close friend of mine suffered 9 months of this kind of depression after breaking his wrist.

          The talking heads want to see you curled up in your locker of fear. Now, no one dies, no one is in critical care, you must be afraid of being clinically depressed. So act like you are clinically depressed or paranoid so as to avoid being so. Wear masks on your face, and goggles, that don’t protect from squat, to prove that you are mentally on top of your game.

          BTW, when they tell us we are through this, if they ever do, it’s only 8 years now until the next novel pandemic. Been going on your whole life, if you hadn’t noticed.

        3. “She’d go through cycles of not being much able to drag herself out of bed and back for a couple of years at a time, then she’d have some barn burning high times.”

          I prefer woman with physical tone, some bouncy energy in their step and a cheerful smile when I pat her tail. These Alfred Hitchcock stories are beyond my compassion.

  11. Two reports from the Wall Street Journal.
    “…rent collections had been more challenging in areas where local governments had imposed restrictions on evictions for unpaid rent.”

    “‘When somebody tells you, ‘You don’t have to pay your rent,’ people tend not to pay,’ Mr. Beldin said.”

    – An argument for debt forgiveness/jubilee for the 99%.

    https://www.unz.com/mhudson/killing-the-host/
    Killing the Host
    Michael Hudson • July 21, 2020

    “So a point was reached already by the time the virus broke out of how the economy can continue to grow. For 95 percent of the population, the economy stopped growing in 2008, when Obama bailed out the banks and left all the bad debts in place. Since 2008, all the growth of GDP – all the increase in national income – has accrued just to the wealthiest five percent of the population. That means that for 95 percent of the population the economy hasn’t been growing at all. It’s been shrinking.

    The question is, how are you going to grow if you leave all of the debt service in place, if you leave all of the debt pyramided housing in place? Bonds and stocks are so high-priced that they don’t yield an income for retirement anymore. The economy reached a point already by the beginning of this year that it had to choose either to pay all the debts, continue paying the growth in income to the five percent that basically are the creditor and financial class, or write down the debts and let the economy grow again.

    The basic issue is, who is the economy going to be run for? Is it going to be run for the banks and Wall Street, or for Main Street? Well, you said I should be a adviser to the Federal Reserve and Treasury. They wouldn’t pay any attention to anything I say, because they run the economy for Wall Street. As you’ve just seen, the Federal Reserve has created a virus of quantitative easing since 2008. First, four and a half trillion dollars for the Obama bailout, and then another two trillion that is set to go up to 10 trillion, essentially just to buy stocks and bonds and push up the prices of assets that the five percent own.

    So the Federal Reserve basically is working against Main Street. It’s working only for its constituency, which are the commercial banks, instead of trying to think how can the economy free itself from this debt overhead? It certainly can’t work its way out of debt because nobody’s earning enough money to amortize, that is to pay off the principal. All they can do is try to pay the current interest charges. So the economy has painted itself into a corner.

    So the question is, is it really worth subjecting the economy to poverty, to homelessness, to close down businesses, to end the middle class in order to pay debts to the financial class that have made all the gains and growth since 2008? Or do we want to say, “OK, the debts can’t be paid.” That means that the mortgages won’t be paid, the loans won’t be paid, and some of these trillions of dollars that the financial sector and the Five Percent and the One Percent have made are going to be given back? Well, the One Percent says, “We’re not going to give back a penny. We are going to insist that the debts be paid. It’s worth it to us to impoverish the economy so we can get richer, even if by getting one dollar, we’re willing to make the economy lose a billion dollars because that’s all we care about.” That’s the point at which the American economy has reached today. Most of the discussions in the mainstream press don’t spell out the fact that if the economy does not write down the debts, we’re in for a chronic depression that will last until the debts are finally written down.

    The fact is that banking should be a public utility. Privatized banking has not really helped the economy, because it makes loans basically against collateral. When you make loans against collateral – the house, real estate, corporate stocks and bonds – the effect of bank lending is to increase the price of this collateral. You end up with a high-priced economy: high housing prices, high retirement-income prices, high insurance prices.”

    1. An argument for debt forgiveness/jubilee for the 99%.

      This is part of the reason I just bought a new vehicle. A small part, but a reason nonetheless. If they try some BS debt jubilee, I want my free ch!t. I’m tired of getting NOTHING while the debt junkies get free rent, free mortgages, free money on top of UE every week, etc. “GIMME DAT,” too.

  12. I just listened on yahoo tv to a Zillow expert explaining how we have a massive shortage of homes and huge demand right now, and how the young generation is once more bidding on anything like crazy. How this is by far not as bad as 2008 since there are no foreclosures at all, and how these techies after working for a few months are able to buy whatever there hearts desire.
    Who says that realtors are liars? It sounds to me more like criminals that should be all locked up.

    1. “I just listened on yahoo tv to a Zillow expert explaining how we have a massive shortage of homes and huge demand right now, and how the young generation is once more bidding on anything like crazy. How this is by far not as bad as 2008 since there are no foreclosures at all, and how these techies after working for a few months are able to buy whatever there hearts desire.”

      – Unicorns and rainbows forever! Wait a minute…

      Tweet
      Danielle DiMartino Booth [replying to Liz Ann Sonders]
      @DiMartinoBooth
      “Powell buying more than $1 trillion in MBS good for banks in more ways than one. It’s been great for those refinancing at a time of rising permanent job losses. It will be an eventual tragedy for those buying homes, especially first timers who don’t realize they’re buying at ATHs [all-time-highs].”
      8:41 AM · Sep 8, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

      Liz Ann Sonders
      @LizAnnSonders
      “Mortgage market recorded its best quarter in years this spring, reflecting how housing market has boomed in 2020 even as much of rest of economy stumbled @WSJ @Black_KnightInc”
      5:28 AM · Sep 8, 2020·Twitter for iPad

      and

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-08/refinancing-and-delinquencies-soar-in-divided-mortgage-market?srnd=premium&sref=f8xQc5xU

      Economics
      Refinancing and Delinquencies Soar in Divided Mortgage Era
      By John Gittelsohn
      September 7, 2020, 10:01 PM MDT Updated on September 8, 2020, 9:05 AM MDT
      – Serious delinquencies jumped 450% from pre-pandemic levels
      + A record $1.1 trillion in loans originated in second quarter

      – Well, which is it? A bifurcated economy. Further widening of the wealth and income gap.

      “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” – Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

    2. “and how the young generation is once more bidding on anything like crazy.”

      Hmm…

      “As of July, 52% of millennials were living in their parents’ home, up from 47% in February, according to the Pew analysis of Census Bureau data, surpassing the previous high hit in 1940, when 48% of young adults lived with their parents.

      “In a very short space of time, we are now at levels last seen during the Great Depression…” ”

      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/majority-of-young-adults-now-live-with-mom-and-dad-due-to-coronavirus.html

  13. Important news from Denver:

    Governor Polis, Broncos announce ‘limited number’ of fans can attend game against Tampa Bay

    Masks will be required when a total of 5,700 fans, mostly season ticket holders, will be allowed to attend the Sept. 27 Broncos game.

    I can’t be bothered to watch them on TV. For all I care the NFL can drop to its knees and do you what to BLM.

    1. For all I care the NFL can drop to its knees and do you what to BLM.

      Beautiful. Completely agree. Professional sports with the possible exception of the UFC can jam it. Modern Netflix and Amazon Prime Video are the same way. Hard to find anything recent worth watching. PC has infected just about everything.

      1. I take it the national anthem protests are still going on? I don’t watch any sports anymore, so I don’t know.

        Have the leagues ever considered simply not playing the national anthem before events? Pretty sure it’s not required by law. Or would that now be considered censorship or something?

        Actually, I suppose the leagues are so busy pandering to the extremists that they would never even consider this. Forget I asked. 🙄

  14. Irvine, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Unemployment, Poverty And Crime Ravages Golden State

    https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca-92618/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As one economist stated so eloquently, “Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.”

    1. Here’s a better link:

      https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/09/08/coronavirus-economy-bay-area-real-estate-bankrupt-housing-apartment/

      ‘Both projects have gained approval from municipal leaders. Neither project has reached the point of construction.The owners of both projects owe millions of dollars in mortgages for their properties. The lenders on the properties each have filed notices of default and are attempting to foreclose on the respective loans.’

      ‘The bankruptcy filings are a way to temporarily halt the foreclosure proceedings. However, a judge in a Chap. 11 case typically obliges debtors to file with the court detailed plans for how they intend to repay their debts and reorganize their finances.’

      Some brown spots in the skirts and trousers at the Mercury News. Call Diana, she knows how to get the stains out.

      Eat yer crows Thornberg.

      1. A comment:

        ‘Sadly this is just the tip of the iceberg. Most high density residential construction will come to a screeching halt due to rent control and tech workers fleeing the area. Next to fall will be the mom and pop rental owners who were blocked from collecting rent and from evicting non-paying tenants by the California legislature and governor. Yet they still must somehow pay their mortgages. Finally, the glut of office business space that has been mostly deemed obsolete by tech workers who can work anywhere. This is already shown in the collapse of the Google in downtown San Jose project.’

        ‘We did bring all this on ourselves through our voting. If you like being foreclosed upon while simultaneously being out of a job just keep voting as you have been.’

        Zing!

        1. Oh, and when I found that SFC article saying every single residential project underway in downtown was for sale, the bubble had popped and I said so at the time. That was what, a year and a half ago?

          ‘The sun don’t shine on the same dog’s ass all the time.’ – Catfish Hunter

          1. At least they have a pandemic to serve as a scapegoat for all of the reckless lending that has transpired after subprime lending supposedly went away during the GFC.

        2. ‘We did bring all this on ourselves through our voting. If you like being foreclosed upon while simultaneously being out of a job just keep voting as you have been.’

          These ignoramuses are starting to wake up.

          1. Not yet…. they slumber to the streams of realtor lies that housing prices aren’t falling….. yet housing prices have been falling for 2 years.

            The stamping of hoofs and loud braying is the sign they finally figured out how far underwater they are.

            Ooooph.

            Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY On Soaring Inventory And Mortgage Defaults Across Denver Area

            https://www.movoto.com/boulder-co/market-trends/

            As one Denver broker conceded, “The stench of appraisal and mortgage fraud permeates the housing market.”

  15. on the front page of tomorrow’s Financial Times:

    JPMorgan probes whether staff broke law on crisis bailout loans

    • Bank arranged $29bn of claims • Ethical breaches feared • Glitches dog $670bn scheme
    LAURA NOONAN — US BANKING EDITOR

    JPMorgan says it discovered ‘conduct that does not live up to our business and ethical principles — and may even be illegal’

    JPMorgan Chase is investigating whether its staff helped customers illegally gain funds from the US government’s small business bailout programme.

    The largest US bank, which arranged $29bn of forgivable loans under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) by the end of June, said it had discovered “conduct that does not live up to our business and ethical principles — and may even be illegal”.

  16. Critical Race Theory is anti-white, anti-American and anti-male. Really stupid stuff that’s. Just made up.

    1. Everything is “made up” including most of the bible. That tall hat Shepard guy takes his orders from the owners of this place, aka the 0.1%, and they want you to get up and go to work every day, not out running around the neighborhood with your homies getting high and diddling the ladies.

    2. The Fatal Flaw of the 1619 Project Curriculum
      Posted August 14, 2020 / Editorial, Education, News
      In this watercolor, two female slaves work with hoes while a white oveseer watches. This painting invites a more nuanced interpretation than the 1619 Project curriculum would facilitate.

      As teachers get ready for the fall, thousands will be tempted to make use of the 1619 Project curriculum offered online by the Pulitzer Center, which has formed a partnership with the New York Times to distribute lesson plans built around the essays in the 1619 Project, which were originally published in the New York Times Magazine in August 2019. Teachers and school administrators should resist this temptation, since academic reviewers, including some of the nation’s leading historians, have been unyielding in their criticism of the 1619 Project, pointing to numerous errors of fact and interpretation and rejecting its fundamental claim that the nation is defined by racism and was conceived in oppression. There are better ways to teach students about the history and ordeal of slavery—an important subject that deserves our finest efforts.

      Those same academic critics, unfortunately, have not turned their attention to the 1619 Project curriculum, which is the means by which the poisonous errors and coarse misinterpretations of Nikole Hannah-Jones and her colleagues will be transmitted, like a disease, to young Americans. Having issued their learned responses in the pages of the Atlantic or the Wall Street Journal, they may find it sufficient that the 1619 Project curriculum is the fruit of a poison tree, and not bother to examine it.

      That’s not a wise position to take. The radical ideologues promoting Nikole Hannah-Jones’ grotesque view of America aren’t after the mature readers of the Atlantic or the Wall Street Journal. Despite their recent, rapid gains, they’re sticking to the long game they’ve been playing for decades, going after young, impressionable minds. Their method is not to persuade. It is to propagandize.

      1. Both my daughter and son have sipped the liberal hemlock at school for years out here in flyover red Grant county. But, I have faith that their views will change once they venture down the career path and begin paying taxes.

  17. Nice Video explaining CMBS

    Nice video:
    Expert breakdown of NYC’s overpriced commercial vacancies.

    Youtube Channel is by Louis Rossman (who is refreshingly open about what he is thinking) which is normally dedicated to electronics repair, but has been out looking for a new store front to move his expanding business in New York City. In the course of looking he came across a bunch of outlandish prices for place that have been empty for years.
    He also has a bunch of episodes about the places he’s been shown when out looking. Great stuff.

  18. The nature of the case and when it happened were not detailed, although the participant is expected to recover, according to Stat News, which first reported the trial was halted due to a “suspected serious adverse reaction.” The U.S. Food and Drug Administration defines that as an adverse event in which evidence suggests a possible relationship to the drug being tested.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/astrazeneca-puts-covid-19-vaccine-215143688.html
    Any of you want to be a lab rat?

    1. Transverse myelitis. I don’t know anything about it. It will be a real blow to me if we lose the Astra-Zeneca vaccine. I really don’t want to take the mRNA shots.

      Even without a vaccine, we can still get by if we can distribute the 15-minute at-home tests and we finally get Ivermection and/or HCQ approved for at-home treatment. Feel sick, take the test, call the doc, get the scrip, take it the same day.

      1. “Even without a vaccine, we can still get by if we can distribute the 15-minute at-home tests and…”

        Wait…are you saying it’s either Astra-Zeneca or no vax? (Gulp…)

        1. Standards in existence prior to March 2020 had already approved HCQ for at-home use, per off-label prescribing (which is legal). Lawfare & extralegal shenanigans on the part of FDA and CDC etc. have put up roadblocks. Perhaps a few key lawsuits are in order to put things status quo ante.

          1. “….Both [HCQ and CQ] have been prescribed for years to help patients with these debilitating, or even deadly, diseases, and FDA has determined that these drugs are safe and effective when used for these diseases in accordance with their FDA-approved labeling. Of note, FDA approved products may be prescribed by physicians for off-label uses if they determine it is appropriate for treating their patients, including during COVID.” — FDA, June 15.

            So legally it looks doctors still have wiggle room. But the anti-HCQ forces clearly won the propaganda war. Despite the success of HCQ all over the world, in America HCQ is the butt of jokes now. TDS-libs have convinced themselves that they may as well be injecting bleach. Even if the FDA approved HCQ tomorrow, TDS-libs would say it’s because Trump corrupted the FDA. They are refusing the Moderna vaccine for the same reason.

            Luckily, Ivermectin seems to be a little more effective than HCQ. Of course, the ideal is to develop a cocktail which combines IVM, HCQ, zinc, and doxy/azith.

            (I personally would prefer Ivermectin. I have some quercetin at home, which is a similar zinc ionophore like HCQ.)

        2. No, I’m not. I’m sorry, it does sound like I gave off that impression. What I should have added is that we can get by until a successful vaccine is found. It’s a timing issue.

          Worse case scenario, the Moderna and Pfizer vax are less-than-stellar because (1) people refuse the mRNA technology (2) people refuse the “Trump vaccine” or (3) it’s only 50% effective… and then Astra-Zeneca gets pulled. In that scenario, we stuck waiting for the other vaccine candidates. Eventually, one of them will work, but you’re probably adding an additional 6-12 months. We can’t afford that, socially or economically.

          At that point FDA and CDC will have to bite the bullet and shift to some other strategy while we wait. The test strips are available but need regulatory approval. Results of Ivermectin testing are coming soon. If what I am reading is correct, I think there’s a possibility that both could be approved by the end of the year, with ramp-up by late spring. That’s certainly before the later candidate vaccines. Then we could enter another stage of “normal” for another year or so until a vaccine is ready.

    1. ‘Softbank Group Corp shares were down 5% in afternoon trade on Wednesday, extending this week’s slump that has wiped $15 billion (11.58 billion pounds) from its market capitalization, as investors worried about the conglomerate’s exposure to sliding U.S. tech stocks. The fall takes SoftBank’s share decline to 12% since sources told Reuters and other media late last week that the Japanese company made big bets on equity derivatives tied to tech firms.’

      ‘Chief Executive Masayoshi Son said last month Softbank would place cash from an asset sale program in public stocks but the complex transactions have caused jitters among retail investors in a company already widely viewed as opaque, analysts said.’

      ‘The group “needs to protect Masa’s reputation by making sure it is not seen as a short-term trading giant, which would warrant a much bigger discount,” Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal wrote in a note, referring to the gap between the value of its assets and its market valuation.’

      https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/article-softbank-sheds-15-billion-on-us-tech-stock-rout/

      1. “SoftBank’s purchase of call options in addition to share buying, which gives access to a much higher amount of shares on paper, is seen by analysts as having exacerbated the market’s run-up and subsequent sell-off.”

        So Softbank bought call options and also bought actual shares. Buying actual shares “exacerbated the market’s run-up” which increased the value of the call options.

        I like it.

        1. If the market is thin enough then a buyer of shares not only influences the market, it becomes the market. Buying call options on a market that you own is a nifty way to puff up your balance sheet, and a puffed up balance sheet is a formidable marketing tool that can be readily used to suck in, er, to convince prospective investors to fork over some cash.

          Again, I like it.

          1. Some snips from the secondary offering link …

            “1. Purpose of secondary offering of shares
            As aforementioned, we consider that the Offering will contribute to the early resolution of concerns arising from the potential additional sales of a portion of shares in the Company held by SoftBank Group through SoftBank Group Japan as well as increase market liquidity, which will lead to appropriate pricing of our shares.”

            “… lead to appropriate pricing of our shares.”

            😁

            “We will take this opportunity of this Offering to assist the capital markets and our stakeholders in understanding our management policy by better explaining our business strategy.”

            IOW we will try to explain to investors just what it is that we do.

            Plus there is this …

            “Furthermore, the Board of Directors of the Company resolved today to implement share buybacks of up to 80,000,000 shares and JPY 100 billion.”

            So the company expands the float via a secondary offering then intends to reduce the float via share buybacks.

            Uh, an excellent way to push up the price of a stock is to buy it. In this crazy world we live in a rising stock price for some people is reason enough to buy it. So corporate buybacks, if done correctly, can create demand for the stock. This demand for the stock can feed on itself and can cause the price of the stock to really take off. After it takes off another secondary offering can be implemented so as to cash in on the stock’s price rise.

    2. Five Things I Noticed in the Empty Disney Parks

      Disney must be losing their shirts. Plus the movie business unit is still tanked. Their streaming channel seems to be the only thing doing well.

  19. The three day tech stock correction turns out to only have been a minor bungee test of Mr Market’s nerves and resilience. Stock prices have resumed their upwards trajectory today. You can safely buy the dip with the assurance of blue skies ahead.

    1. The “$uit$” are out to get the Millennial day traders. But don’t let them scare you out of your stock market gains. BTFD!

      1. Captain of stock-market ‘retail bros’ says he’s ‘cool as the other side of the pillow’ as Nasdaq plunges into correction at record speed
        Published: Sept. 8, 2020 at 5:29 p.m. ET
        By Mark DeCambre
        Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy . Getty Images
        Referenced Symbols
        COMP
        2.35%
        DJIA
        1.64%
        SPX
        1.97%

        Outspoken Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy, who has suggested that he’s better suited to the current investing environment than legendary long-range investor Warren Buffett, was licking his wounds on Tuesday but appears to describe himself as bowed but unbroken in a Twitter message.

        “Down $700k and cool as the other side of the pillow,” indicated Portnoy on the social-media platform, also making reference to the Twitter hashtag #DDTG, or Davey Day Trader Global.

        “It’s ugly out there but this is when the suits want you to panic. I won’t,” Portnoy also said of Tuesday’s brutal action, which extended a withering decline for the broader market and in particular the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP, 2.35%), which fell into correction, commonly defined as a decline of at least 10% but not more than 20% from a recent peak, marking its fastest slide from a record high to a correction in history, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

        1. Outspoken Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy

          Given the amount of publicity this guy is getting, I think Boo Randy was right. Dave Portnoy is the Judas goat leading the cows to slaughter.

        2. “It’s ugly out there but this is when the suits want you to panic. I won’t,”

          What a guy! My idol. He’ll show those suits. Nobody is going to play him for a fool.

          😁

    2. “Stock prices have resumed their upwards trajectory today.”

      I like to view this as “conditioning”. Do this often enough and investors (choke) will be conditioned to see every dip as a buying opportunity. They will kick themselves for missing out on previous buying opportunities and will vow to not miss the next one. Sooner or later this next buying opportunity, this next dip, will be a dip that does not recover.

      For a non-conditioned schmuck this should be reason enough to halt any furthur buying, but to a fully-conditioned schmuck a prolonged dip is reason enough to buy more; The deeper the dip the greater the reason to buy.

      1. I’ve heard that the best cure for the financial version of smoldering coals is to dump a gallon of gasoline on them. Gets the fire going again in a flash!

      2. What is interesting to me are the psychological contradictions at play. The “Price equals Value” concept is contradicted by the “Buy the Dip” concept.

        Either one concept or the other should prevail but neither one prevails, instead each concept takes it’s turn ruling the behavior of the market participant.

      3. Do this often enough and investors (choke) will be conditioned to see every dip as a buying opportunity.

        Rumor is that might even work with houses.

        1. Rumor is that might even work with houses.

          Sorry, but the payments don’t make themselves. You need WAGES to pay for houses.

          1. Sure, but they don’t have to go up. Just bring the interest rate down a little so they can qualify for a little more :-).

        2. Buying these ever-high dips might actually work with PMs. With all the fed printing, I don’t see how PMs will go down for any length of time.

          1. With all the fed printing, I don’t see how PMs will go down for any length of time.

            It’s possible for the value of the dollar to go up even if more dollars are being created.

          2. I don’t see how PMs will go down

            For some reason, gold is a favorite among debtors.

            When loans are called in, such assets will be thrown on the market, one way or another.

            China is a big case in point.

          3. It’s possible for the value of the dollar to go up even if more dollars are being created.

            Against other currencies, yes, but against gold, no.

          4. against gold, no

            Ironically, the supply of gold available for exchange can indeed increase dramatically.

          5. Against other currencies, yes, but against gold, no.

            Indeed it can go up against gold. It can go up against everything.

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