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No One Knows What Pandemic-Type Economics Are

A report from BU News Service on Massachusetts. “Some property owners leave vacant units rather than bear the costs of lost rent, maintenance, utilities and other bills they may never recoup. ‘I’ve put [some units] out of touch for the truly, truly desperate while I was willing to take a risk before because I could hold them accountable,’ said Branch Yules, who manages 170 units of mixed-income rental properties in Hudson and Marlboro. ‘You can’t carry them. You literally can’t afford to have people in those units.'”

“Springfield landlord Peter Houser said he had lost up to $25,000 a month in unpaid rent since March. Susanne Fuller and her husband rent out three buildings in Acton and Maynard, purchased as retirement investments. ‘You’re going to have a few people taking it on the neck to the tune of thousands of dollars a month. That’s not reasonable or fair at all,’ Fuller said.”

From City Limits on New York. “A survey released by the New York Small Landlords (NYSL), an organization comprised of Chinese landlords, found delinquency rates in August hit a five-month low. But 42 percent of landlords said they’d rather keep their properties vacant, a proportion higher than the previous two months. The survey noted that the state’s eviction moratorium, which has been extended to October 1st, as the reason for landlords’ lack of motivation to find tenants.”

“The survey interviewed 140 small landlords early this month, and found the delinquency rate in New York City had declined to 31 percent in August. Brooklyn’s delinquency rate was 43 percent, the highest among the five boroughs, followed by Staten Island’s 30 percent and Queens’ 27 percent, while across the river in New Jersey, the delinquency rate was 33 percent.”

From CNBC on New York. “The number of empty rental apartments in Manhattan nearly tripled compared with last year, as more New Yorkers fled the city and prices declined. The inventory of empty units is the largest ever recorded since data started being collected 14 years ago, the report said. Experts say the migration from the city to the suburbs during the Covid-19 crisis has been fueled in large part by Manhattan renters leaving the city. ‘The rental market is weak and getting weaker,’ said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel. ‘Where you are already seeing stress on landlords is on the low end of the price spectrum.'”

From My Northwest in Washington. “There has been a break for renters in some cases, and Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate, expects a greater contraction to come. The state and the city of Seattle also both have eviction moratoriums in place. ‘Even though the state has basically said, you can’t evict anyone to the end of the year, inside the city of Seattle, you could not pay rent until the start of April 2021,’ he said. ‘So it’s hitting the apartment market. And because of that lower demand, a lot of people are actually moving in with each other, some are moving back home. That is depressing rents, no doubt about it.'”

The Mercury News in California. “A growing percentage of Bay Area tenants missed rent in September as persistent unemployment and shrinking federal aid compounded the stress on renters and landlords. Rent payments in San Jose, Oakland and San Francisco during the first week of September dropped roughly 9 percent from the previous year, according to RealPage, among the biggest drops in the nation.”

“The percentage of renters making at least some payment in September fell, year-over-year, across the region. The rate dropped from 92.9 in September 2019 to 83.7 percent this September in San Jose and Santa Clara County. During the same period, the rate of East Bay rent payments fell from 90.4 to 81.2 percent and decreased in San Francisco and San Mateo County from 91.3 to 82.3 percent.”

“RealPage market analyst Adam Couch said renters are struggling more in high-cost markets like the Bay Area. The drop in San Jose, Oakland and San Francisco, Couch said, ‘is one of the largest that we’ve seen across the nation.'”

“The extended health crisis has set public officials, landlords and renters searching for relief and ways to forestall evictions and widespread displacement. Staggering unemployment, reaching nearly 8 million in California, has hit service workers and others hard. About 1 in 5 new unemployment claims filed in the U.S. in the week ending Aug. 22 were from California.”

“‘The initial rent payment figures from September have begun to demonstrate the increasing challenges apartment residents are facing,’ said NMHC president Doug Bibby. ‘Falling rent payments mean that apartment owners and operators will increasingly have difficulty meeting their mortgages, paying their taxes and utilities and meeting payroll.'”

“As the courts have re-opened, foundation lawyers have been representing tenants facing eviction for health and safety reasons. Staff attorney Caryn Hreha appeared in court this week to represent a single mother with two school-aged children for a lease violation. The woman, a nurse, has seen her income dwindle with the elimination of elective surgeries. She has not paid rent in six months. Hreha said the case was typical.”

From Bisnow on Texas. “City of Houston officials and tenant advocates were already debating the creation of a local eviction grace period ordinance. For now, the new eviction moratorium has interrupted that debate. As the economic downturn continues and unemployment remains high, landlords are continuing to voice concerns about the ability of renters to pay back their accumulating debt. ‘This order … kicks the can down the road and creates an impossible balloon payment situation for our renters in a few months that most of them are not going to be able to survive,’ said Veritas Equity Management CEO John Boriack.”

The Las Vegas Sun in Nevada. “Tom Blanchard, president of Las Vegas Realtors, said the region’s housing market ‘continues to defy expectations.’ But, he said, he’s not sure how much longer the market can perform like it is now.”

“‘Those that can purchase have been purchasing, pretty much since this pandemic started,’ Blanchard said. ‘That part of our business has been steady and constant. The only thing I’m concerned about is if the assistance people are getting — unemployment insurance, the Cares Act, all of the government assistance out there — goes away and the jobs haven’t come back, we’ll see us fall off the crevasse.'”

From News 3 Las Vegas in Nevada. “Economist David Grana dismissed a new report from CoreLogic, which analyzes housing markets across the U.S. According to its latest statistics, CoreLogic ranks Las Vegas with Prescott, AZ, Lake Charles, LA, Miami-Miami Beach, FL and Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH as having the highest risk (75%) of a home price decline. Grana also cited an outlier. ‘I don’t think that they’re also applying psychology to it. I don’t think that they’re applying pandemic-type economics to it, and by the way, no one knows what pandemic-type economics are.'”

From Miami Agent Magazine in Florida. “CoreLogic reported that homes in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach had a 13.4% delinquency rate of 30 days or more in June, more than double the rate of 5.3% from a year ago. The area had a serious delinquency rate of 7.1%, more than triple the 2% rate a year ago. Florida was singled out in the report as a COVID-19 hotspot with a serious delinquency rate increase of 3 percentage points from the year prior. ‘Miami — which has been hard hit by the collapse of the tourism market — experienced the largest annual increase at 5.1 percentage points,’ the report noted.”

From Click on Orlando in Florida. “Shaquille O’Neal’s 31,000-square-foot Isleworth mansion is back on the market for a lower price of $19.5 million after it didn’t sell last year for the original asking price of $28 million.”

From The Real Deal on New York. “Some investors are seizing on the opportunity to snatch up hotels at significant discounts. Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. has sold its 310-room hotel at 60 West 37th Street in the Garment District to Magna Hospitality Group for $115 million, according to property records. That’s a 41 percent discount to the $195 million the real estate investment trust paid for the Embassy Suites hotel 18 months ago.”

“Similarly, hotel operator Highgate and real estate investment firm Rockpoint Group sold the storied Royalton Hotel for $40.8 million — a roughly 25 percent discount to the $55 million the partners paid for the property at 44 West 44th Street in 2017.”

“For Ashford, its purchase of the Embassy Suites hotel was intended to be the Dallas-based firm’s entrée into New York real estate. But after the coronavirus ground the city’s travel economy to a halt, the hotel buckled under the weight of its debt. Ashford became two months delinquent on the CMBS loan behind the property after the debt was transferred to special servicing in May, according to the data firm Trepp.”

From Bloomberg. “Jim Millstein, the co-chairman of Guggenheim Securities, said financial markets are headed into a period of ‘significant volatility’ with default rates expected to spike as we move closer to the end of the year. ‘Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride,’ Millstein said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Ratings companies are also forecasting more defaults. The rate fell in August, as expected, since the last month of the summer is typically slower for nonpayments. But S&P Global Ratings expects the the pace of defaults to increase ‘amid the continued impact of Covid-19 on economic and credit conditions,’ Sudeep Kesh, head of S&P global credit markets research, wrote in a report.”

“Pressure is also mounting at the corporate level for landlords who rely on businesses to make a profit and pay their rent, according to Millstein. ‘Some businesses that are barely hanging on are not paying,’ and landlords will have a ‘hard time’ as a result.”

This Post Has 127 Comments
  1. ‘Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach had a 13.4% delinquency rate of 30 days or more in June’

    This is already starting to rival last decades bust.

  2. ‘Springfield landlord Peter Houser said he had lost up to $25,000 a month in unpaid rent since March…‘You’re going to have a few people taking it on the neck to the tune of thousands of dollars a month. That’s not reasonable or fair at all’

    How do those 5% cap rates look now?

  3. ‘About 1 in 5 new unemployment claims filed in the U.S. in the week ending Aug. 22 were from California’

    Poorest state in the union, and getting poorer by the day.

    ‘a single mother with two school-aged children for a lease violation. The woman, a nurse, has seen her income dwindle with the elimination of elective surgeries. She has not paid rent in six months. Hreha said the case was typical’

    So you clowns are still not doing elective surgeries? Jeebus, Arizona started that back up months ago. This is an example of willfully destroying your economy. Like New York is doing.

    BTW Larry, how you like those hotel haircuts?

    1. Also yesterday I heard on the radio that every hotel in Phoenix is losing money. Think about all the related business that is crater: food, car rental, entertainment, the list goes on. Oh but we’re safe! The virus is bad, mkay. I know, let’s destroy the economy, that’ll fix it!

      1. Phoenix (mythology):

        A phoenix (/ˈfiːnɪks/; Ancient Greek: φοῖνιξ, phoînix) is a mythological bird that cyclically regenerate$ or is otherwise born again. A$$ociated with fire and the sun, a phoenix obtains new life by ari$ing from the a$he$ of its predece$$or. Some legends say it dies in a show of flame$ and combu$tion, others that it simply die$ and decompose$ before being born again.

        Thee deeth.👾 I$ thee only create that care$ knot about $helter.$hack.Price$, Federal.Re$erve.Trillion$ 💵💰💲💉injection$ or Thee 🍊.jesus “Trade.War$.i$.ea$y!” prognostication$! (or lung.tissues) … munch, munch, munch … $till.$preading!

        Don’t fret, bee happy!

      2. Virtually all of the states committing economic suicide are
        1) libtard controlled
        2) sanctuaries for illegals
        3) homeless and junkies everywhere and “only” several thousand “non-profits” to take care of them, courtesy of tax payer money funneled to them by (1)
        4) Union dominated (aka, junior commies)
        5) have massively underfunded pension systems (see 1, 4)
        6) have boondoggle rail projects that are waaaaay over budget (see 1,4) and are generally designed to go from a place youve never heard of to a place you wouldnt be caught dead in

        1. Forgot to add
          7) Releases criminals from jails so they dont get the beer flu, 50%+ of which immediately commit more crime
          8) Lock up citizens in those same jails who do crazy things like get haircuts, go to the beach, go to church, exercise at a gym or dont wear a mask at all times

          I’m sure theres plenty of other “coincidences”

          1. Item$ 1-8 = a “Full.Hou$e”

            Neo-‘merikan $ociali$t Munchin’$ x$11 Trillion‘💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰 🙈🙉🙊 90 day Di$tribion’$ = a “Royal.Flu$h”

            You lo$e.

      1. That’s what Bill Maher said he wanted a few years ago.

        Tens of millions starving and homeless in the U.S. is “worth it” (hat tip to Madeleine Albright) if it means a restoration of the neoliberal globalist world order.

        1. ” increa$ing the dependency cla$$ ” (aka Democratic voters)

          On accounts all the repubican’s in the $outhern $tates without a shirt on their backs i$ $elf.reliant of gubermit’$ hand.out$

          Got diabete$?

    2. “Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. has sold its 310-room hotel at 60 West 37th Street in the Garment District to Magna Hospitality Group for $115 million, according to property records. That’s a 41 percent discount to the $195 million the real estate investment trust paid for the Embassy Suites hotel 18 months ago.”

      Getting there. The lower the entry price, the better the chance of a return.

      On the apartment front, finding one in our part of Brooklyn remains tough, but there are many, many in that price range in Manhattan, more ever day. At this rate Manhattan may end up poorer than Manhattan for the first time since the 1940s.

      But it won’t stay that way. Especially if more people don’t want to ride the subway. In Manhattan, you can pretty much walk to everything.

    3. Single mother, fine, but where are the fathers? My mother was single but that’s because my father died whe I was 11.

  4. ‘‘The rental market is weak and getting weaker…Where you are already seeing stress on landlords is on the low end of the price spectrum’

    So much for the “crater is only in luxury” line.

      1. I live in Chicago and apartments are not coming down in price except in the luxury market. Those are usually taking a hundred off, but forget to mention the pools and workout facilities (amongst other amenities) are closed.

  5. NAR never stops – i wonder if their analysts or writers ever feel slimy.

    Douglas County CO – as if suburban households can live in ex-farm houses in Parker. They would not know how to do the maintenance/repairs.

    ——-

    Texas leads all states with seven counties among the top 30 for remote work, followed by Virginia with four, and Colorado and Georgia with three each.

    NAR identified the following top 10 counties for working from home:
    Forsyth County, Ga.
    Douglas County, Colo.
    Los Alamos County, N.M.
    Collin County, Texas
    Loudon County, Va.
    Hamilton County, Ind.
    Williamson County, Tenn.
    Delaware County, Ohio
    Broomfield County, Colo.
    Dallas County, Iowa
    “With some organizations expanding remote work options and as more people show an ability to remain productive from home, we may see buyers see larger properties that offer space for a potential home office and other features that have become more valuable as a result of this pandemic,” says Vince Malta, NAR’s president. “The growing trend and historically low mortgage rates are spurring potential home buyers to consider a broader range of options and rethink what’s important to them in the long term.”

    The growth of remote work will undoubtedly have an impa

    1. NAR never stops – i wonder if their analysts or writers ever feel slimy.

      I wonder if the traitors who work for CNN, Huffpo, etc. feel that same slimy sensation? They should be imprisoned for their anti-American propaganda.

    2. NAR identified the following top 10 counties for working from home

      Interesting that Denver County wasn’t in the top 10. All those people who were working in those downtown high rises must be working from home. Or maybe they list is based on where one is working from home as opposed to where the office is.

      1. I’ve had the misfortune of driving through central Denver for work this week. All around Civic Center looks like its boarded up for a hurricane. Didn’t see any large tent cities, but lots of small clusters of tents in seemingly random places.

        Alot of them are “working from home” too with their stolen bike chop shops sprawled over the sidewalks adjacent to their tents.

        1. Alot of them are “working from home” too with their stolen bike chop shops sprawled over the sidewalks adjacent to their tents.

          I can’t stand thieves and druggies.

      1. https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/work-from-home-counties

        NAR looked at nine factors related to internet connectivity, urbanization, office-related jobs, home affordability, and a county’s population growth that are then combined into a Remote Work Score. These factors are:

        percent of households with a computer or laptop
        percent of households with internet broadband access
        percent of population with 3 or more providers
        percent of workers who worked at home
        percent of area that is urban
        population growth from 2014 to 2019
        percent of population working in information; finance and insurance; real estate, rental, and leasing; and professional, scientific, management, administrative and waste services,
        median value of property to median household income
        percent of housing units with a mortgage who spent 30% or more of income on housing costs

        1. Oh. I thought it would be a list of the best counties to move TO, to work at home, not the counties where there’s already the most work at home.

          Not sure how “3 providers” is related. Do they mean internet service providers or people earning income?

  6. Google is supposed to build a new campus in downtown San Jose in conjunction with the city’s development of the Diridon transit village.
    Ever since this this project was announced property values have increased dramatically.
    I have a feeling this project will be greatly scaled back or canceled.

      1. What I’m observing in my business unit in Big Red is that is that any new hires are either in India or Eastern Europe, mostly in roles like tech support. But even though we are nice a profitable division we aren’t hiring in the US. Other divisions, especially the cloudy ones, are hiring in the US.

          1. Went through Missoula a couple weeks ago in the RV. My wife the specialty coffee expert said Black Coffee Roasters there was better than expected for a small town. Drum was ok but not in the same league. I was visiting an old coworker/friend that has a small company down by the river where almost everyone is working from home at the moment.

  7. does anyone understand the quote below. If you dont have to pay rent – why would you move back home?

    ——-
    “Even though the state has basically said, you can’t evict anyone to the end of the year, inside the city of Seattle, you could not pay rent until the start of April 2021,” he said. “So it’s hitting the apartment market. And because of that lower demand, a lot of people are actually moving in with each other, some are moving back home. That is depressing rents, no doubt about it.”

    1. Seattle

      Suggested translation: The economy has been crushed. The rich (house owners) are fine but the lower income (renters) are taking steps to survive with even less income. Vacancy is rising. Rents are falling. The ban on evictions was not enough to reverse the trend.

        1. Replaced by an “extra $400” per week. A story posted a few days ago said the average weekly unemployment was $700. That’s over $35,000 per year for doing nothing, and more than half of household income in most cities in this country. When you factor in that most households have multiple employed people, you quickly realize that these people are still RAKING it in, in many instances “earning” much more than they were when working. It’s disgusting.

          1. Only four states Montana, West Virginia, and Kentucky are paying the $400. Others that have opted in are getting $300 extra. While 45 states have agreed to at least the $300 extra only six states as of Labor Day (9-7) have actually started paying it.

      1. Chatting with the landscaper neighbor down the street, and discover that they moved away from Bellingham where my daughter is living. He said a friend bought a student rental house near the University using equity from their current place, and if things don’t improve they’ll lose both houses.

    2. It’s pretty clear to me! Yes, rent is free, but restaurants are closed! Who is going to cook for me? Oh, let me guess. Mommy?

    1. Well, lived that dream myself. Not as glamorous as it seems. People you own age are busy as heck, and you will have to spend you time with people retirement age. After a couple of years of waiting Monday to Friday to see Saturday when people my age had time to go places or do stuff, I decided to take a few more classes, reshape my diploma and career, and live a miserable life as an employee ever after, knowing that you have to earn your weekends and your vacations if you want to be happy, and that living an endless idle life makes you feel miserable, and unhappy parasite.
      Welcome to human race!

      1. I retired several years ago, and it’s been like paradise! I can go hiking, camping, etc much more often. But those are the things I really love to do; I got virtually no satisfaction from my work and only stayed just long enough to qualify for my pension. Oh, and I have zero pangs of guilt about any of this.

        Also, if I want to do something, I go do it: I don’t find it necessary to find one or more people to do things with me. But to each their own, I suppose.

    1. Has anyone considered how Mr Market might react in case no vaccine is actually available by early November?

      1. The Tell
        Forget value vs. growth. We’re in a quarantine vs. recovery paradigm now, this analyst says
        Published: Sept. 10, 2020 at 11:03 a.m. ET
        By Andrea Riquier
        Many stocks straddle multiple categories
        Referenced Symbols
        XLF -1.40%
        XLE -3.66%
        XLI -1.27%

        If you’ve been struggling to make sense of markets in recent weeks, you’re not alone.

        Investors seem to want to embrace a value tilt – stocks that will do well as an economic recovery gathers steam – but then fall back on the tried-and-true growth stocks that have done well so far, through more uncertain times.

        But what if those old “value” and “growth” frameworks are the wrong way to measure market moves?

        “The recent market volatility is more about Quarantine vs. Recovery and Cyclicals vs. Defensives than Value vs. Growth,” argues Evercore’s Dennis DeBusschere in a Thursday note.

      2. I don’t think the market will act any differently than it is now. Does anybody really believe Trump’s vaccine predictions?
        Wall Street realizes that Science Is Hard, and that a vaccine is a 12-month minimum, and so I think that’s priced in. If there is no vaccine by, say, February, then things are going to be bleak. By that time we could all be living in a continual riot anyway.

        The election is more likely to have an effect than the vaccine.

        If anything, if there is a sudden effective vaccine announcement, the market might even DROP temporarily; that is, the Fed might shut off the spigot now in anticipation of an open economy, but it will be months before the economy actually opens, since it will take months for a significant portion of the population to receives the two shots and develop immunity.

  8. “Hopes for a rebound in the fall or the end of 2020 look increasingly unlikely. Although rental prices have come down — median rental prices fell 4% in August — the discounts are not steep enough yet to lure new renters back to the city. The average rental price for a two-bedroom in Manhattan is still $4,756 a month.”

    Now imagine if the price were low enough, in some buildings, for Manhattan service workers to live there. Wouldn’t they, rather than take an hour subway ride? Sure they would.

    The issue is price — for tenement apartments, not for luxury high rises.

    1. The issue is also quantity. If so many Yellen bux hadn’t been wasted on investment in useless, unwanted luxury housing construction, a lot more working class housing could have been provided at a lower price.

      1. How much Trillion’$.of.bux’$ wa$ wa$ted on “Nation.building”? … Doe$ Afghanistan still have poppie$ growing in field$?

      1. The video is worth watching, the song is worth listening to, and some of the comments are quite interesting.

      1. What’$ the back.$tory hi$tory on Na$car? … My engine i$ faster than yours cop’er! Catch.me.iffin’.ya can! …I

        #43 … See.ya!

  9. You’re going to have a few people taking it on the neck to the tune of thousands of dollars a month. That’s not reasonable or fair at all,’ Fuller said.”

    Well, Suzanne, since we’re only talking about a few people taking it on the neck, there’s no reason to be concerned.

  10. The survey noted that the state’s eviction moratorium, which has been extended to October 1st, as the reason for landlords’ lack of motivation to find tenants.”

    More unintended consequences of gub’mint meddling starting to manifest.

  11. ‘This order … kicks the can down the road and creates an impossible balloon payment situation for our renters in a few months that most of them are not going to be able to survive,’ said Veritas Equity Management CEO John Boriack.”

    Oh, they’ll survive. But landlords will be lucky if they recover a fraction of the back rent they’re owed. We have become Deadbeat Nation!

  12. ‘A man is facing charges for attempting to set a fire in the median of SR-167 and Meridian. Trooper Ryan Burke with the Washington State Patrol tweeted that the 36-year-old man from Puyallup was caught in the act of trying to start the fire.’

    ‘A picture from the scene taken by Trooper Burke shows dry grass burning in the median of the road. The man was quickly arrested and taken to jail. The Washington State Patrol, the Fife Police Department and the Puyallup Police Department all assisted in making the arrest.’

    ‘Since Monday more than 50 fires have been started around the state, burning more than 300,000 acres. As there was no lightning recorded during that period, it is believed that all the fires were human caused.’

    https://www.khq.com/fires/man-arrested-for-trying-to-start-a-fire-in-puyallup-near-sr-167/article_63f8bd6c-f2f4-11ea-8f55-63f4ddd00b34.html

    Hmmm…

    1. ‘Since Monday more than 50 fires have been started around the state, burning more than 300,000 acres. As there was no lightning recorded during that period, it is believed that all the fires were human caused.’

      But black lives matter….

      1. “We can only hope a lot of them had some degree of preparations.”

        Those would likely be the equity locusts from California. The indigenous Troglodytes from logging country put $3 in the gas tank every other day, and work piece-meal jobs under the table so as not to disturb the welfare check and snap food card.

  13. ‘Since Monday more than 50 fires have been started around the state, burning more than 300,000 acres. As there was no lightning recorded during that period, it is believed that all the fires were human caused.’

    …. and the Realtors jump for joy.

    1. Just check out their balance sheet from the last available weekly data:

      6,990,418,000,000 on August 26th, 2020
      7,017,492,000,000 on September 2nd, 2020

      Yep, these cucks are pumping the sh!t out of things. That’s still a rate of $1.5 TRILLION per year.

        1. Check out “Selected Liabilities of the Federal Reserve / Treasury Balances.”

          Its increased by a huge multiple since 2007…not sure what it captures, though.

          1. This is a completely dishonest system we have. It’s unsustainable. The wealth is rushing to the top at the fastest rate ever now. It’s like the late stages of a game of Monopoly where there are 2 players left, one having hotels on every property and the other person handing over all their money with the ending a foregone conclusion.

          2. Going DOWn thee mountain in a blind mi$t in darkne$$, iffin’s ya don’t hit anything or plunge off the $teep.$ide, yer $afe & $ecure!

          3. Rip, I really like that Monopoly analogy. 👍

            Funny, I don’t think I’ve played a single Monopoly game long enough to reach that point. Usually we call it quits.

          4. Funny, I don’t think I’ve played a single Monopoly game long enough to reach that point. Usually we call it quits.

            Ditto

    2. US Credit Default Swap rates are rising quickly, for the same reason they did back in 2008 – the rapid decay in the value of the collateral in mortgage backed securities. The Fed can move thinly traded after hours market futures, but at some point its ability to go on rigging the market and propping up its Ponzi is going to be overwhelmed by the building liquidity crunch as interbank lending locks up again and the cascading defaults begin snowballing.

  14. I’m enjoying intentionally not watching my first NFL game tonight almost as much as I enjoyed telling the DIRECTV rep a month and a half ago to cancel the NFL Sunday Ticket and telling him their service would not be far behind.

    1. I dropped NFL Game Pass also. And i’m no longer watching any professional sports. But you know what? They’ve won. They’ve won because ruining our sports was a good enough consolation prize if they couldn’t get us conform to their way of thinking. They’ve succeeded in punishing us.

      And the dupe athletes don’t even know they’ve been screwed over yet. They act like they’re going to get the same amount of money as before this BLM brainwashing got started. They’ve made a big mistake as far as their wallets are concerned. The sports figures have lost, but the PC elite have still won. We’ll never get to enjoy sports the way we used to. The belief that the sports guys are good people is gone forever.

      1. COVID is teaching us that we can get by without sports. Sure, there are die-hard fans. But has anyone seen any op-eds or sports pages writing tearful editorials lamenting the Loss of Sport? I haven’t. Just like w@h or the death of retail, COVID is just accelerating the downgrade of yet another discretionary industry. Sports won’t go away entirely, but those players better prep for a pay cut.

        And imagine if you were a mediocre employee, went to a business conference to give a presentation, and spent the first five slides of that presentation bad-mouthing your boss’s wine habit. You wouldn’t last 10 minutes, not just with that company, but with ANY other company in that same industry. Loose cannons are not well tolerated.

        1. We can get by without ice cream or potato chips too, but why should we? What if sports was an important release valve for society? What if those few minutes of escape are what helped some people to keep from blowing a gasket?

          The point is that even if sports makes a comeback, it won’t be like it was before. There was a level of trust or respect (deserved or not) that can’t be brought back. It’s gone.

          The lesson here is an old one… the left ruins everything it touches.

  15. “The rate dropped from 92.9 in September 2019 to 83.7 percent this September in San Jose and Santa Clara County. During the same period, the rate of East Bay rent payments fell from 90.4 to 81.2 percent and decreased in San Francisco and San Mateo County from 91.3 to 82.3 percent.”

    So the rental nonpayment rate was already between 7.1 to 9.6 percent for Bay Area communities last September? Can’t blame it on COVID-19…

  16. You know, “becoming a landlord” was a popular topic among people trying to plan for their financial future over the past 6 years or so.

    I would be curious to see any surveys, or even anecdotal encounters the rest of you may have run across, as to if there’s been a change in sentiment about it in the general population / people trying to figure out how to get ahead/invest/retire.

    I mean, we see all the headlines and knew what it meant before the MSM did… but has any of it sunk into Joe six-pack and Jane average yet?

    If it has caused individuals to sour on the idea en mass, I would expect the notion of ‘landlord == bad idea’ to persist for a good long while, even into a recovery period.

      1. units have been payed in full, they still should be able to units have been payed for in full, they s units Funny. Things run pretty smooth the first year, maybe even two, until you start having a lot of turnover, repairs, big repairs, unpaid utilities, vacant units, people not paying rent for a month and giving you some nice story, that it’s two months same story, then three, than they’re gone over night( if you’re lucky) or will have to fight them through the eviction process.
        I’d say it’s naivitet at it’s best. Of course, if all those
        Of course, if all those units have been payed in full, they still should be able to make a nice profit regardless of all of the above. And then again, dealing with those is a full time job, they are not retired, it’s just a different career.

  17. NYC protesters, leading lives of wealth and privilege, busted for rioting

    Seven ‘comrades’ had their mug shots tweeted out by the NYPD early Wednesday

    By Gabrielle Fonrouge | New York Post
    Published 1 day ago

    The so-called revolutionaries who were busted for rioting at a New Afrikan Black Panther Party rally took a break from their yacht club lives and modeling careers to be a part of the mayhem.

    The seven “comrades” — including wealthy Upper East Sider Clara Kraebber — had their mug shots tweeted out by the NYPD early Wednesday, days after their arrests for smashing storefront windows in the Flatiron District.

    Aside from Kraebber, the redhead daughter of an architect and a child psychiatrist with a second home in Connecticut, five of the others arrested appear to also come from privileged backgrounds — leading one police source to call their actions “the height of hypocrisy.”

    Frank Fuhrmeister, 30, of Stuyvesant Heights, charged with rioting and possession of a graffiti instrument, is a freelance art director who’s designed ads for Joe Coffee and has also worked for Pepsi, Samsung and The Glenlivet, among other high-profile brands, his LinkedIn profile and portfolio shows.

    He studied fine arts with a concentration in photography at Florida State College in Jacksonville, according to his LinkedIn, and his most recent address is a stately home on Reed Island Drive in the city’s tony Beacon Hills and Harbour Neighborhood, public records show.

    Calls to Fuhrmeister went unreturned.

    Adi Sragovich, 20, is a student at Sarah Lawrence College from Great Neck, L.I., according to police and her family.

    The young activist lost her phone during the rowdy weekend protests and promptly called up her mother who “made arrangements” to replace the cell phone right away, her mom told The Post.

    “She hasn’t been terribly in touch, she’s been off doing her own thing,” said Sragovich’s mom, Susan Jacobowitz, an English professor at Queensborough Community College.

    “I kept thinking I would get a call from the hospital or she’d get arrested because it seems like it’s just dangerous times right now,” Jacobowitz, who didn’t know her daughter was arrested, told The Post.

    Claire Severine, 27, who lives in Washington Heights and was charged with rioting, appears to be a signed model with the We Speak agency who had the ability to jet between Montreal, Quebec, and Dublin, Ireland, before settling in the Big Apple to “pursue a career in acting,” according to a modeling profile with the same name.

    Etkar Surette, a 27-year-old from Brooklyn who summered in Europe as a kid, is charged with rioting and possession of a graffiti instrument.

    When approached for comment at his Prospect Park South apartment Wednesday, Surette barked “I don’t want to talk to you. You can go away” and then slammed the door in a reporter’s face.

    Elliot Rucka, a 20-year-old from Portland, Oregon, charged with rioting, is the son of famed comic book writers Greg Rucka and Jennifer Van Meter, according to his father’s online bio.

    Greg penned the comic book series “The Old Guard,” which he then adapted for a Netflix film of the same name — and co-created the “Stumptown” comic series that ABC optioned into a TV show last year.

    Calls to Rucka and his family went unreturned.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/nyc-protesters-leading-lives-of-wealth-and-privilege-busted-for-rioting

  18. ‘You can’t carry them. You literally can’t afford to have people in those units.’

    Dumb question of the day: Without any occupants, how can he afford to pay his HODLing costs, including payments, interest, taxes, insurance, rent, maintenance and upkeep, etc., etc. etc.???

  19. “The survey interviewed 140 small landlords early this month, and found the delinquency rate in New York City had declined to 31 percent in August. Brooklyn’s delinquency rate was 43 percent, the highest among the five boroughs, followed by Staten Island’s 30 percent and Queens’ 27 percent, while across the river in New Jersey, the delinquency rate was 33 percent.”

    Any way you cut it, and even after recent declines, those delinquency rates are all over 25 percent, some by alot!
    Would it possibly make sense for landlords to charge less in rent in order to fill all those vacant units?

    1. As soon as I typed that, I realized: Those units aren’t actually vacant! They are fully occupied by folks who have stopped paying their rents.

      Is there any good reason for the remaining 75 percent or less who are still paying rent to continue doing so?

      1. But then again:

        ““The number of empty rental apartments in Manhattan nearly tripled compared with last year, as more New Yorkers fled the city and prices declined. The inventory of empty units is the largest ever recorded since data started being collected 14 years ago, the report said.”

        So I guess there are both a large number of vacant units plus many occupied units with no rental income?

        Seems like the just about the worst time ever in history to be a real estate investor!

        1. There was the Great Depression. People would sign a lease with two months free rent, and as the second month was coming to a close, sneak out to a new apartment with two months free rent.

  20. “Staggering unemployment, reaching nearly 8 million in California, has hit service workers and others hard. About 1 in 5 new unemployment claims filed in the U.S. in the week ending Aug. 22 were from California.”

    I had no idea that many people in California actually worked!

    1. 9 hours ago
      California’s total death toll nears 14,000 after biggest daily jump in days
      Peter Wells in New York

      California reported its biggest jump in deaths in five days, pushing the total of fatalities in the state since the pandemic began close to 14,000. A further 137 people died, state authorities revealed Thursday afternoon, up from 83 on Wednesday and compared with 164 a week ago.

      It was the biggest one-day jump since September 5 and pushed the total number of coronavirus deaths in California to 13,978, a toll surpassed by only New York and New Jersey among US states.

      A further 3,338 people tested positive for the virus over the past 24 hours, more than double yesterday’s increase that was the smallest jump since May 19, and compared with 5,125 new infections last Thursday.

    2. “I had no idea that many people in California actually worked!”

      list $tates by employment payroll taxe$.

      I$ Wyoming in top 10?

  21. RE: Shaq’s Shack

    I know tax assessment history is an imperfect metric of value, but it is somewhat of an eye opener how much higher the asking price is than the current assessment, even following three decades of bubble gains since the initial 1993 sale price of $3,950,000.

    Good luck to Shaq getting someone to pay his wishing price during the COVID-19 depression!

    Price history
    DATE EVENT PRICE
    9/9/2020 Listed for sale $19,500,000 (-11.3%)
    Source: COMPASS FLORIDA LLC
    6/25/2019 Listing removed $21,990,000
    Source: THE AGENCY COLLECTIVE
    12/26/2018 Listed for sale $21,990,000 (-21.5%)
    Source: THE AGENCY COLLECTIVE
    11/5/2018 Listing removed $28,000,000
    Source: Premier Sotheby’s International Realty
    5/17/2018 Listed for sale $28,000,000 (+608.9%)
    Source: Premier Sotheby’s International Realty
    11/19/1993 Sold $3,950,000
    Source: Public Record

    Public tax history
    YEAR PROPERTY TAXES TAX ASSESSMENT
    2019 $142,142 (+0.5%) $8,601,346 (+1.8%)
    2018 $141,385 (0%) $8,450,940 (+5.7%)
    2017 $141,385 (+4.5%) $7,997,519 (+2%)
    2016 $135,300 (-0.2%) $7,843,986 (+0.7%)
    2015 $135,524 (-0.7%) $7,786,163 (+2.6%)
    2014 $136,543 (+2.6%) $7,585,967 (+2.1%)
    2013 $133,086 (-2.4%) $7,428,791 (-1.6%)
    2012 $136,291 (-9%) $7,551,430 (-8.6%)
    2011 $149,783 (-2%) $8,266,172 (-4.5%)
    2010 $152,836 $8,656,571 (-14.6%)
    2009 — $10,138,995 (-10.5%)
    2007 $191,160 (+2.7%) $11,331,293 (+12.5%)
    2006 $186,146 (+29.1%) $10,068,105 (+33.3%)
    2005 $144,181 (+21.9%) $7,554,993 (+20.5%)
    2004 $118,283 (-2.1%) $6,268,534 (-0.3%)
    2003 $120,777 (+6.7%) $6,284,479 (+5.7%)
    2002 $113,208 $5,947,313

      1. How do they differ, CA vs FL in the way they tax & a$$essment over time? Doe$ CA Prop 13 help @ tho$e high.price$?

        “I know he’s loaded”

        Eye don’t know$ how many $helter.$hack$ the $haq ha$, but he $ure $eems to do ton$ of commercial$ & product endorsement$.

        (The Treehouse guy built him a really cool play.treehou$e on his Georgia $hack!, his friends mostly are quite tall!)

  22. “Some investors are seizing on the opportunity to snatch up hotels at significant discounts. Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. has sold its 310-room hotel at 60 West 37th Street in the Garment District to Magna Hospitality Group for $115 million, according to property records. That’s a 41 percent discount to the $195 million the real estate investment trust paid for the Embassy Suites hotel 18 months ago.

    41 percent off sounds like a pretty hefty drop. At what point do the sale prices show up in REITs? I would have to hold my nose to make the initial investment, but I might be willing to HODL REITs for a few years for the next wave of bubble gains if the price dropped by enough.

  23. The current sell-off may end up emboldening the bulls, if the last tech bubble is a guide – MarketWatch
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-current-sell-off-may-end-up-emboldening-the-bulls-if-the-last-tech-bubble-is-a-guide-11599821324

    (snip)

    Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at independent investment research firm TS Lombard, said excessive leverage in the market really began in earnest in July. Cicione added that was occurring in U.S. stocks wasn’t happening anywhere else in the world.

    And while he’s seeing signs of a bubble, he thinks if the selling doesn’t intensify, the bubble may reflate soon.

    “The leverage accumulation so far may not be enough to burst the bubble just yet,” he writes. “If the recent selloff does not intensify further, the whole episode may end up simply emboldening the bulls to buy the dip and take even more risk.”

    Between 1997 and 1998, the Nasdaq experienced three sell-offs of at least 17%, only to emerge stronger and rise four-fold to the 2000 peak. “Leverage is a key characteristic of all bubbles, and almost invariably it is the mechanism that leads to their collapse. But there may not have been enough leverage for the dot-com 2.0 bubble to burst just yet,” he says.

    The reason leverage is important in bursting bubbles is because it uniquely can lead to forced unwinding. “When faced with margin calls they cannot meet, investors may have to liquidate positions against their will. The resulting fall in prices can instil doubts in the mind of others, persuading them to sell,” he said.

    1. “Leverage is a key characteri$tic of all bubble$ … ”

      Leverage … Ba$ed on ea$y Credit$ & $imple.$ingle.click$.

      Next: Draft.King$! & Robin.Hood!

      go dog, GO! … By P.D. Eastman

  24. REIC shill Jacob Passey is at it again. Now he informs us that even though mortgage rates have fallen to record lows (thanks to the artificial suppression of interest rates by the Fed), “not all Americans” will be able to access these low rates. The hell you say, Jacob – you mean the 40 million Americans who are out of work (but mostly not counted as unemployed due to BLS statistical fakery) won’t be able to finance $500K starter shacks? Gosh, I bet they won’t be moving into luxury apartments, either.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgages-rates-fall-to-a-new-record-low-but-not-all-americans-will-be-able-to-access-them-2020-09-10?mod=mw_latestnews

  25. Well I just saw a picture taken before the NFL protest I mean game last night. Both teams lined up with arms linked in a show of solidarity with no face diapers in a super spreader event that has as good a chance of being talked about by the MSM as I have winning Power Ball this weekend and next weekend without ever buying a ticket.

  26. What is the benchmark for opening LA County schools?

    Will they open schools after Halloween?

    How about Thanksgiving?

    Christmas?

    Nah…

    LA County Health Director Says Schools Won’t Reopen Until After November Election

    1,404 views•
    Sep 10, 2020

    https://youtu.be/0nDgy-VjK4w

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