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When The Money Is Almost Free, Sometimes The Market Gets A Little Bit Ahead Of Itself

A report from AZ Big Media in Arizona. “William Gray, former president of the Arizona School of Real Estate and Business, said the homebuying market has ‘been going gangbusters’ since the beginning of the summer. ‘One of the little problems we have in Gilbert is the median price of a home is running at about $400,000. So that may get a little expensive,’ Gray said.”

“Gilbert resident Nadia Saco bought the home of her dreams this August. Saco acknowledges that it is ‘kind of a weird time to take on a bigger mortgage.’ The software company her husband works for is doing well and she is reasonably confident in his job security, ‘but you never know.’ ‘We felt pretty good moving forward, but it’s always kind of in the back of your mind. Like, is this a bad time to buy a home?’ Saco said.”

“The Sacos were presented with another complication earlier this month when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a nationwide moratorium on evictions through the end of the year. The Sacos, who kept their old house and rented it to friends, could be in a financial bind if their renters couldn’t pay the rent. ‘I know these tenants well and they seem to be in a good financial spot,’ said Saco, who called the eviction moratorium a ‘slight concern.’ But ‘I just don’t know what would happen if our tenants couldn’t pay, because we can’t afford to pay both’ mortgages without the rental income.”

“Gray sees little risk of foreclosures increasing in the current market. All a strapped homeowner has to do is ‘put their home on the market, it’ll be sold in two days.’ Owners of rental properties could face challenges because of the eviction moratorium, which runs through Dec. 31. ‘If landlords put those houses on the market Jan. 1, they’d be purchased immediately,’ Gray said. ‘But if you put the property on the market right now with no stream of income (from renters), who would buy it?'”

From WINK News in Florida. “The housing market is on fire, a record jump in sales this summer. The Federal Reserve also announced interest rates will stay a record low near or at zero for the next few years. Those factors are driving up the value of homes. ‘When rates are down that low, I mean, the money is almost free,’ said Tom Smythe, a FGCU professor of finance. Smythe said there could be a downside. ‘We’ve seen before sometimes the market gets a little bit ahead of itself,’ Smythe said.”

“That’s the like the way it did in 2008 when the housing market collapsed and the great recession took hold of the economy. ‘I think we’d have to see say 6 months from now if the housing market is still on sort of a steady sharp incline relative to what it is today,’ Smythe said.”

The Wall Street Journal on New York. “In one of the largest New York City deals to close since the pandemic, a Soho penthouse has sold for $35.14 million, setting a record for the neighborhood. Spanning the top three floors of the Broome Street building where actor Heath Ledger was found dead in 2008, the roughly 8,000-square-foot apartment was most recently listed for $43.75 million with Oren and Tal Alexander of Douglas Elliman. The unit originally went on the market two years ago for $65 million with another firm.”

“In the second quarter, the median sales price for luxury Manhattan properties was down 11.3% from the prior year, according to a Douglas Elliman market report.”

The Wall Street Journal on California. “Movie mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg is in contract to buy the Beverly Hills property of Estée Lauder Executive Chairman William P. Lauder for close to $30 million, according to people familiar with the transaction. Trousdale prices are down from their frenzied peak of a few years back, when speculative builders loaded the neighborhood with modern, glass-walled homes and demanded roughly $2,500 a square foot, said Michael Nourmand, president of Nourmand & Associates in Beverly Hills and not involved in the deal. Today, $2,000 a square foot is more typical for top-of-the-line Trousdale homes.”

From The Current in California. “The nation’s housing market so far seems ‘kind of immune’ to the economic downturn brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, but it may be a little early to declare victory. According to the panel, there are a couple factors that could cloud the happy state of home sales. Another is the looming potential for foreclosures, signs of which are appearing in the form of increasing mortgage delinquencies.”

“‘In over three decades, we have not seen this type of increase — 16%, up from 9.7% of all transactions from the beginning of the year, are delinquent,’ said Karen Chackel, First American Title county manager in Santa Barbara County. The mortgage forbearances that are part of the CARES Act have so far held off mass foreclosures, as struggling borrowers buy time through the end of the year. The end of the program might see a rise in foreclosures, as mortgage payments come due again.”

“But on the other hand, according to Chackel, unlike with the housing bubble and recession a decade ago, today’s borrowers have built more equity, giving them the option to sell the property if they can’t afford it. ‘Equity makes it a little bit safer,’ she said. ‘People aren’t going to walk away from the equity.'”

From Your Central Valley in California. “‘The way the insurance companies were moving out of the state, and pushing people to these more expensive policies, it seemed like a tidal wave coming,’ said Peter Leinau, Oakhurst resident. ‘We will see another housing collapse as we saw before in California because of people walking away. They can’t afford those payments.'”

“Residents in the mountains have seen insurance rates skyrocket over the past one to three years. They are voicing their concerns with CBS47 and are pointing to forest management as the underlying issue. Residents and insurance companies alike agree forest management is the cause of insurance rates raising 300 to 900% in recent years. It’s a high risk for insurance companies to insure in certain zip codes because they know if a fire took place, the company would suffer a huge loss.”

“Meegan Kliever, frustrated with the position the state is in, says change is needed before bad change happens. ‘If nothing is done then we will be forced to move out of California.'”

The Times Record News in Texas. “The real estate market in Texas cooled slightly in August as sales stabilized after a surge in pent-up demand earlier in the summer. An increasing gulf between the upper and lower price ranges led to an increase in the median sales price for existing homes. ‘The initial economic shock from COVID-19 was concentrated in the service sector and other industries that rely on a younger workforce,’ according to Center Research Economist Dr. Luis Torres. ‘These households are more likely in the market for lower-priced homes, and we’ve seen that market suffer disproportionately. The relative strength in upper price ranges is inflating the median sale price.'”

From KTVB on Idaho. “The coronavirus pandemic hasn’t cooled off the Idaho county’s hot housing market, but instead, it has people buying new homes at higher prices. On August 13, KTVB spoke with BRR President Michelle Bailey about the then-new record of median home sales price reaching $390,000. ‘The bottom line is, buyer demand continues to outpace the supply of homes for sale, driving up prices,’ she said then. ‘It’s also the mix of sales. We have more new homes selling at higher price points and higher existing homes selling so that combination is driving prices up.'”

From NBC News. “John Wilkins, 39, lost his job as a facilities director at a fast-food restaurant in Santa Barbara, California, in March when the coronavirus outbreak began. With the $600 weekly unemployment benefit from Washington, he was making up his previous income and managed to save enough of a cushion to cover an extra month’s rent.”

“But then the benefit expired, and a $300 temporary replacement is soon to expire, as well. He has had no luck finding a job, and has little idea what comes next. ‘After this month, I don’t know what we’re going to do,’ Wilkins said. ‘We canceled cable. We got rid of our crappy air conditioner. We’ve cut way back. Still not making it.'”

“For months, it was a lifeline: a check for $600 a week, allowing people put out of work by the coronavirus pandemic to pay rent, buy food and build some savings to ride out the storm. But with that benefit now gone and a patchwork of replacement aid nearing its end, tens of millions of Americans are dealing with uncertain futures, unsure of their income beyond even the next month or whether they can find jobs to replace it. Nor can they take the roofs over their head for granted: While emergency measures protect them from eviction for now, without additional aid they could lose their housing as soon as the order expires at the end of the year.”

“Those moves only delay evictions, and they don’t offer direct financial aid, leaving both tenants and landlords on the hook for now and without a picture of what happens if the moratorium ends and tenants accrue months of unpaid rent. An analysis by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, estimated that Americans owe over $25 billion in back rent, which could balloon to $70 billion by the end of the year.”

“Diane Yentel, CEO of the National Low Income Housing Coalition, said, ‘Landlords are going to evict if renters aren’t paying the rent at some point.'”

“Joel Griffith, a research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said an eviction moratorium without some additional relief — from the federal, state or local governments — could have negative downstream effects throughout the economy, putting small landlords in difficult financial straits, as well as their tenants. ‘We’re not talking about enormous corporate conglomerates. Often the landlords are people who bought several rental properties and are relying on it as a source of income or even retirement income,’ he said.”

“Many of those strains could be resolved if those who are in need of additional aid could find jobs. But while millions of people have returned to work after the worst of the slowdown last spring, many industries are still lagging. ‘I’m looking in the restaurant industry, but unfortunately right now it’s hurting pretty bad,’ said Loryn Cadwallader, who was furloughed from her management job at a chain restaurant in Sanford, Florida.”

“She hopes to return soon as locations begin to reopen, but she has little backup if she can’t. Her state approved only four total weeks of stopgap benefits, which Cadwallader said she’s already received. Overall, jobs in hospitality and leisure, which includes bars, restaurants, hotels and theaters, are still 25 percent below their pre-pandemic levels. In many places, sports arenas still don’t have audiences, live music venues are still shuttered, and indoor eating and drinking establishments are still under tight restrictions.”

“As of July, there were an average of 2.5 unemployed persons for every job opening, according to federal data. ‘We’re in a situation where millions of people have been thrown out of work, and for those looking for a job, there are far fewer opportunities,’ said Nick Bunker, director of economic research for North America at Indeed Hiring Lab.”

“‘I feel like the attitude toward unemployment insurance is like the attitude toward the virus itself at this point,’ said Michelle Evermore, a senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project, a liberal group. ‘There are so many people tired of things being bad that they’re pretending they just aren’t bad anymore.'”

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This Post Has 142 Comments

  1. ‘Owners of rental properties could face challenges because of the eviction moratorium, which runs through Dec. 31. ‘If landlords put those houses on the market Jan. 1, they’d be purchased immediately…But if you put the property on the market right now with no stream of income (from renters), who would buy it?’

    The big question here Bill, is who financed this couples speculative second shack?

    ‘I just don’t know what would happen if our tenants couldn’t pay, because we can’t afford to pay both’ mortgages without the rental income’

      1. “The real estate market in Texas cooled slightly in August as sales stabilized after a surge in pent-up demand earlier in the summer. An increasing gulf between the upper and lower price ranges led to an increase in the median sales price for existing homes. ‘The initial economic shock from COVID-19 was concentrated in the service sector and other industries that rely on a younger workforce,’ according to Center Research Economist Dr. Luis Torres. ‘These households are more likely in the market for lower-priced homes, and we’ve seen that market suffer disproportionately. The relative strength in upper price ranges is inflating the median sale price.’

        So while the low income, service workers get F**KED, people with jobs (for now) are speculating on bigger houses. This will end WELL.

        1. There will be plenty of newly minted rabble to riot in suburbia, and everybody’s got a brand new gun.

    2. “‘I just don’t know what would happen if our tenants couldn’t pay, because we can’t afford to pay both’ mortgages without the rental income’”

      Solid lending, rock solid.

      1. Exactly. Never before in history were speculators funded for 2nd and 3rd houses when they didn’t have the financial resources to carry them.

        1. I was approved twice in the past for a mortgage on a new house when I moved for work, without having sold the previous house yet. The last time I was approved for 5x income despite having the other mortgage. They assumed I’d sell the old house in short order so didn’t consider it. I was rather amazed. 20 years ago, the last time I bought anything on credit.

          I presume that if you have no intention of selling the old house there is fraud. Jingle, any thoughts on this?

          1. Its only fraud if you told your lender you were going to sell your old house and the lender detrimentally relied on that representation.

      1. You don’t need to be very intelligent to be a REALTWHORE, you just need to be halfway decent looking and morally bankrupt.

  3. the looming potential for foreclosures, signs of which are appearing in the form of increasing mortgage delinquencies…‘In over three decades, we have not seen this type of increase — 16%, up from 9.7% of all transactions from the beginning of the year, are delinquent’

    So almost a 10% delinquent rate before the CCP virus. This bubble popped long ago.

  4. ‘Trousdale prices are down from their frenzied peak of a few years back, when speculative builders loaded the neighborhood with modern, glass-walled homes and demanded roughly $2,500 a square foot, said Michael Nourmand, president of Nourmand & Associates in Beverly Hills and not involved in the deal. Today, $2,000 a square foot is more typical’

    That’s what, 20%? Eat yer crowz Thornberg.

  5. ‘The initial economic shock from COVID-19 was concentrated in the service sector and other industries that rely on a younger workforce…These households are more likely in the market for lower-priced homes, and we’ve seen that market suffer disproportionately. The relative strength in upper price ranges is inflating the median sale price’

    ‘It’s also the mix of sales. We have more new homes selling at higher price points and higher existing homes selling so that combination is driving prices up’

    The median is a flawed, lagging statistic that can move up significantly when the actual market is crashing. The first time I saw this spelled out plainly was last decade when Denver crashed and the Post was still not a cheerleader. They reported the median was way up, but quoted UHS saying ‘oh hell no, look at all the foreclosures’. They did this, of course because their commissions were sinking like a turd in a well.

    1. “…The median is a flawed, lagging statistic that can move up significantly when the actual market is crashing….”

      Absolutely.

      A standalone median value does not provide much information.

      A much better metric would be to publish the median and mean, which would provide a much better indicator as to which direction the market is skewed.

      Of course, the REIConplex would object, saying ‘median and mean values would just confuse home buyers’.

      1. It’s just numbers. An example:

        ‘Here’s a look at price-reduced homes for about $700,000 in Escondido, Oceanside and San Diego in San Diego County. ESCONDIDO: Down $10,000 from its original price tag…About the area: In the 92029 ZIP Code, based on 36 sales, the median price for single-family homes in July was $765,000, up 8.5% year over year, according to CoreLogic.’

        ‘This Mediterranean-style two-story with a gazebo in the Rancho Del Oro neighborhood recently got a $30,000 trim. About the area: In the 92056 ZIP Code, based on 56 sales, the median price for single-family homes in July was $600,000, up 9.1% year over year, according to CoreLogic.’

        ‘SAN DIEGO: An arched entry accesses a courtyard in front of this price-reduced single-story. About the area: In the 92128 ZIP Code, based on 54 sales, the median price for single-family homes in July was $797,000, up 3% year over year, according to CoreLogic.’

        ‘OCEANSIDE: Palm trees surround this cul-de-sac property with a remodeled floor plan and landscaped backyard. About the area: In the 92058 ZIP Code, based on 11 sales, the median price for single-family homes in July was $505,000, down 8.2% year over year, according to CoreLogic.’

        ‘SAN DIEGO: An August price cut brought the tag for this 1920s Spanish-style bungalow with a detached guesthouse down $50,000. About the area: In the 92104 ZIP Code, based on 19 sales, the median price for single-family homes in July was $793,000, up 7.1% year over year, according to CoreLogic.’

        https://www.latimes.com/business/real-estate/story/2020-09-17/discounted-homes-700-000-san-diego-county

        It’s like the price reduced statistics we used to see every month. Now they just don’t publish it unless it shows reductions declining. If it really is to the moon Alice!, why would anyone cut prices? Just wait a few months and get yer number.

        2. People absolutely suck at logical thinking and math/statistics and theres no better example than with the beer flu. Just yesterday I saw a guy walking his dog alone in the middle of a big empty field with a mask and plastic face shield looking like Homer Simpson working at the nuke plant.

          Global temperatures arent rising in any significant way (again, if you think otherwise you probably suck at statistics) but global stupidity certainly is.

          1. in the middle of a big empty field

            This past weekend I saw a couple on a park bench along the canal cuddled together, both wearing masks. It made me sad.

      2. Seems like when the REIC is concerned, it always increasing sales and price figures from them. I swear they cherry pick time frames and then publicize the results. Like I said yesterday, love to have the REIC testify at a Congresional hearing about why they are optimistic about housing affordability in this country.

  7. Thorn.in.yer.$ide.berg i$ @ Fed.Ex. Office getting a really big $ign made up to remind Thee HB.B bitter.renter$ how awe$ome $helter.$hack.$ales & 🚀.mortgage.loan.application$ are doing during the “fake.deeth.viru$👾.hoax” that as thee.🍊.jesus $houts: 🎤📢 “it affects, virtually, no one!”

    U.S. new home sales rise to near 14-year high
    PUBLISHED THU, SEP 24 202010:12 AM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO
    Reuters

    KEY POINTS
    The Commerce Department said on Thursday new home sale$ rose 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.011 million unit$ last month, the highe$t level since September 2006.

    July’s sale$ pace was revi$ed upward to 965,000 units from the previously reported 901,000 units

    $ales of new U.S. $ingle-family home$ increa$ed to their highe$t level$ in nearly 14 years in August, suggesting the housing market continued to gain momentum even as the economy’s recovery from the COVID-19 rece$$ion appears to be $lowing.

    The Commerce Department said on Thursday new home sales rose 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.011 million units last month, the highest level since September 2006. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading housing market indicator.

    1. That’s what happens when producers slash prices…… inventory moves.

      Keep a slashin’ DebtDonkeys…. You’ve got a long way to go.🤣

      1. More high.price$ $mashin’ & fake $lashin’

        Despite Pandemic, Median Home Price$ In California Top$ $700,000

        By Scott Rodd / Capital Public Radio / Friday, September 18, 2020 | Sacramento, CA

        Home prices in California continue to $oar, even as the economy is battered by the pandemic.

        The median price for a house in California reached a record-high last month, topping $700,000, according to the California Association of Realtors.

        There are a few reasons prices keep going up. Mortgage rates have dipped below 3%, driving more buyers into the market. But inventory remains limited.

        “The winners are people who are downsizing, buying something smaller and pocketing the equity,” he said. “Or moving out of state into a lower-priced market.”

        (The Count: “buuuuuttt vait, there’$ more!):

        Lundquist said he’s loath to make prediction$ about the real e$tate market, but says a correction seem$ inevitable.

        “Obviously this isn’t $ustainable,” he said. “You can’t have this type of rapid growth, as we’ve seen lately, without at some point seeing the market correct.”

    2. ‘Congratulations California, you’ve done it again. The Census Bureau has once again found that California has the highest real-world poverty rate of any state, 17.2% over the previous three years and much higher than the national rate.’

      ‘The “supplemental” poverty rate includes factors ignored by the outdated “official” poverty rate, such as living costs. And our sky-high living costs, particularly for housing, impoverish at least 7 million Californians.’

      ‘We topped the poverty charts even as California’s overall economy was booming in the 2017-19 period. The state now is mired in its worst recession since the Great Depression, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, and poverty has surely increased.’

      ‘A new report from the California Policy Lab at the University of California reveals that in August nearly 20% of California’s workers were drawing unemployment insurance benefits, calling it “startlingly high.”

      ‘Moreover, even before recession struck, the Public Policy Institute of California, using methodology similar to that of the Census Bureau, had calculated that as high as our “supplemental poverty rate” may be, roughly the same number of Californians are in “near-poverty.” Combining the two categories means that about a third of the state’s residents are struggling to keep their heads above water.’

      https://calmatters.org/commentary/2020/09/high-housing-costs-californians-poor-poverty/

      2. “calculated that as high as our “supplemental poverty rate” may be, roughly the same number of Californians are in “near-poverty.” Combining the two categories means that about a third of the state’s residents are struggling to keep their heads above water.’”

        Let them flow with China’$ polluted winds to terra.firma low.cost $tates due Ea$t, who will then be re$ponsible for there daily, weekly, monthly need$ & care$

        $pread.thee.povertie$ & “root.their.vote$”

        eye was born a poor Black child … Steve Martin, The.Jerk

        – Navin: Why are you crying? And why are you wearing that old dress?
        – Marie: Because I just heard a song on the radio that reminded me of the way we were.
        – Navin: What was it?
        – Marie: “The way we were”

      3. California is a strange place. Much of the Central Valley is far more impoverished than Appalachia or Rust Belt. However, California doesn’t seem to suffer from the despair afflicting Appalachia and the Rust Belt. Socioeconomic mobility is still a thing in California. UC and Cal State campuses have lots of students whose parents where migrant farm workers.

        1. Socioeconomic mobility is still a thing in California.

          I think you’re right that that’s important. Being poor isn’t so bad if you can see a path to what you want without having to leave “home”. Pity other places don’t have that.

        2. UC and Cal State campuses have lots of students whose parents where migrant farm workers.

          They must all be majoring in Victims Studies, as I’ve never had one as a colleague. Everywhere I have worked, I was the only dude who spoke Spanish. I did have plenty of coworkers who spoke Hindi, Mandarin or Korean.

          1. Every City in California is full of Hispanic professionals many of who are the first in their families to go to college. Others are from Hispanic families who have been sending their kids to college for several generations.

          2. No single ethnic group forms a majority of California’s population, making the state a minority-majority state. Hispanics (of any race) are the largest single ethnic group in the state.

            Think of all tho$e Cali.forn.i.a taxe$, $ales taxe$, property.taxe$, ga$oline.Hwy.taxe$, bidne$$.taxe$, that the 40% Caucasian folks get to have sent to $acramento to help the $tate $pend with gleeful impunitiy!

          3. Every City in California is full of Hispanic professionals

            The only Hispanics I ever saw at the Santa Clara campus were:
            – janitorial staff
            – cafeteria workers
            – security

            Not saying they aren’t going to college, but from what I can tell, few are in STEM majors. I suppose that those who major in victims studies get .gov jobs.

          4. Yep, 27 years with 5 different fortune 100 tech companies, almost no hispanics to be found. A few dozen at each UC campus back in the 90-00s, none were STEM majors. Maybe the mixed race ones will slowly creep in.

            More marxist pablum uttered by a fool.

          5. almost no hispanics to be found

            I have a very vivid memory from the HP San Diego campus in RB about 15 years ago: I spoke to one of the landscapers in Spanish, and he was overjoyed that a “Hispanic” was employed there as an engineer. Of course I don’t “look Hispanic” as I’m not mestizo, but that I spoke Spanish was good enough for him.

          2. My guess is that he’s referring to the rampant opioid addition in Appalachian states. Eastern Pennsylvania, Western Ohio, all of West Virginia. Parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.

          3. “Western Ohio”

            Did you mean to say Southeast Ohio? The I75 corridor North of Dayton is rural but not considered “Appalachian.”

          4. 216 representing.

            Anything you needed to buy back in the day could be found at Big Fun, Revolution Records, or Chain Link Addiction.

  9. “A Soho penthouse has sold for $35.14 million, setting a record for the neighborhood.”

    They had listed it for $30 million more than what is a record for the neighborhood, or nearly double?

  10. “…An analysis by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, estimated that Americans owe over $25 billion in back rent, which could balloon to $70 billion by the end of the year…”

    A mere flesh wound. After all, what’s $70 billion among friends?

    Remember… we are all in this together!

    1. How does $25 billion or 6 months nearly triple to $70 billion when you add only another 4 months? Did I miss some math?

        1. No more Covid checks.

          That party ended two months ago. It’s a lot harder to get by on just $400 a week vs. $1000

          2. Just in a few states and just for a few weeks.

            Unless the Dems can ram another bill through and get Trump to sign it, the party’s over.

  11. The second wave of a rolling bear market is about to begin, says top forecaster – MarketWatch
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-second-wave-of-a-rolling-bear-market-is-about-to-begin-says-top-forecaster-11600945948

    (snip)

    “’So we have a second wave coming, we have very wealthy people taking profits [on stocks] and we see a lot of speculation in the market. I think the market is going to start to go down again,’ Lamoureux told MarketWatch recently. This selloff phase will start slow and extend into 2021, he added. Another big bounce will follow that, with a final drop to come perhaps near 2023.”

    Oh, so this guy who is expecting the market to go down again is suggesting that investors go to cash, right?

    Wrong. Here, read on …

    “He said one way to get ready is by investing in special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), or shell companies, which raise money via an initial public offering to buy or merge with another company, usually within two years of listing. He said given shares of such companies are around $10, losses aren’t too severe in a stock market drop.”

    Bahahahahaha … losses aren’t too severe in a stock market drop. Well losses are less severe in a stock market drop if one is in cash but these money mangement can’t collect hefty fees if their clients are in cash.

    I love these guys.

    2. ” one way to get ready is by inve$ting in $pecial purpo$e acqui$ition companie$ ($PACs) ”

      Place yer “fake.deeth.viru$👾.kung.flu” fall weather coming soon bet$:

      Ru$h $treet Interactive to Go Public as Part of a $1.8 Billion Deal -Wall $treet Journal … DMYT

      Free $tay.@.home.$timulated.$timulus Robin.Hood trader$ “Own.the.$treet!” ☕

    3. This selloff phase will start slow and extend into 2021, he added. Another big bounce will follow that, with a final drop to come perhaps near 2023.”

      I’m trying to figure out what his trigger points are on this timeline. A slowdown soon because of, er, election uncertainty, profit taking, and an anticipation of worse times to come, I guess. Then a big bounce… when? When everyone is vaccinated by fall 2021? Then another slowdown throughout 2022 as people realize the economy isn’t going to return to the artificial pre-COVID economy, that valuations mean something, and as the second half of boomers all hit 65 and start selling stocks to buy cruises and health care. Then a long-lasting Depression… eh, I don’t know, that’s too much to predict.

        1. Optimist how? People will be vaccinated by then, so we’ll be back down to seasickness, norovirus, and wall poop. No biggie. 🤨 And plenty of boomers will have the money for cruises.

          1. People will be vaccinated

            Consider the possibility that the vaccines do not work, or that the virus is an evolving target.

          2. Consider the possibility that the vaccines do not work, or that the virus is an evolving target.

            If Covid really is the non issue some say it is, how could we tell? Millions get flu shots every year, and yet people still catch the flu and many die from it.

          3. People will be vaccinated by then

            I certainly won’t. There is no way I’m taking a Bill Gates/Fauci special injection to the arm.

          4. So far, at least 4 vaccines are producing a desired immune response and currently in Stage 3 trials: Moderna, Pfizer, Astra-Zeneca, J&J. Sanofi and Novavex are a couple months behind. More will come.

            All the evidence is pointing to this virus being susceptible to vaccine. Indeed, even SARS-1 and common cold-coronaviruses produce a vaccine-like effect.

            The studies so far have shown that the virus doesn’t evolve like the flu. Any new strain is being out-competed by the D614G strain.

          5. I certainly won’t.

            I also won’t be rushing to get one. I usually do well with vaccines, no side effects, but I’ll wait to see if the vaccine is any good.

          6. I’m not in health care, not old, not young and in school, no co-morbidities, and able to work at home. For me it could be as late as a year from now. That means I’m pretty much last in line for a vaccine anyway, so no need to refuse anything.

          7. I remember the rush to issue a vaccine for the dreaded Swine Flu of 1976 & the unexpected side effects that emerged later.

          8. I am particularly skeptical of anything that is supposed to affect the spike protein, because that approach was tried without success on HIV, from what I’ve read. Several of the vaccines in trial target the spike protein, I believe. For HIV the vaccine stopped working after about a month..and the trial ended.
            No successful vaccine has ever been made in the past for any Coronavirus…and there are some reasons for that…that might apply here.
            I think the shotgun approach of throwing big money directly to Big Pharma, and bypassing some of our best virologists and ignoring their input was not a wise way to go, and that is what happened.
            Yes we may get lucky there is a lot of work going on but covid will be with us  for generations.

          9. No successful vaccine has ever been made in the past for any Coronavirus…and there are some reasons for that…that might apply here.

            And this is why my family will not be taking one.

  12. I got this in an email:

    ‘I wish I could report that life’s improving for small businesses, but the opposite is true, based on this week’s Alignable Pulse Poll of 6,300+ small business owners.’

    ‘The survey, conducted from September 18-21, 2020, asked how much revenue small business owners expect to earn in Q4 2020 and how much they need to stay in business. Combining those answers, we found that 42% of small businesses might be forced to close for good before 2021. Drilling into the data, 45% of retailers and 38% of B2B firms could shut down in Q4.’

    Imagine how many jobs are going away if anything close to this happens.

    1. No.Worrie$!

      $ocialist Neo’Merikan Munchin is yellin’ & yappin’ with “Oh,Nancy Pelo$i” @ this very moment to donate even more future U$.Taxpayer xTrillion$ of fre$h “Pu$h.over.Powell” 💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵💲💰💵 💉 & UNLIMITED + ! 🙊🙉🙈

      @Thee.real🍊.jesus approve$ of thi$ me$$age

      More!, More!, More … Don’t …$top! Don’t.$top! 🎂🎉👏

    2. Imagine how many jobs are going away if anything close to this happens.

      I suspect that most small businesses that are on the edge have already let go most of their employees. I recall after the previous crash crash that if you needed a contractor that the owner would show up an do the work himself.

    1. It’s a speculator bailing. They were asking almost a million when it first hit the market – a delusional price.

  15. Haunted penthouse discount?

    “In one of the largest New York City deals to close since the pandemic, a Soho penthouse has sold for $35.14 million, setting a record for the neighborhood. Spanning the top three floors of the Broome Street building where actor Heath Ledger was found dead in 2008, the roughly 8,000-square-foot apartment was most recently listed for $43.75 million with Oren and Tal Alexander of Douglas Elliman. The unit originally went on the market two years ago for $65 million with another firm.”

  16. Holy $uffering.$ufferagette’$ Batman! … “to the Bat.Cave Robin!”

    Variety:

    $tubHub’s Eric Baker Pays $39 Million for Third Beverly Hill$ Man$ion

    James McClain / Wed, September 23, 2020

    Even though he already own$ two other lavi$h Beverly Hill$ estate$, ticket mogul Eric Baker clearly hasn’t finished his real estate $pending $pree. The high-powered businessman — long based in London but born and bred in Beverly Hills — has paid nearly $40 million through an LLC for his biggest acquisition yet, a sprawling 1.86-acre compound set on one of the 90210’s very best streets.

    Because the house was never on the market, details remain scant, but tax records show the existing 9,000 sq. ft. structure was built in 1942 by architect Carlton L. Burgess. The Colonial Revival-style house, which is certainly one of the more stately and elegant homes in Beverly Hills, last sold in 2011 for $23.1 million to RealD co-founder Joshua Greer and his longtime wife Lisa, and was previously owned by tech entrepreneur David Bohnett.

    Aerial and street imagery reveals the Greers have painstakingly maintained the park-like property, with its regal collection of sprawling lawns and mature trees. Permits also show a small accessory structure and an emergency generator was added to the estate during their ownership.

    During Bohnett’s tenure, he hired architect Mark Rios to imbue the rambling house with some Old Hollywood-style glamor. The snazzy result was published in Luxe magazine, and displays the estate’s sophisticated interiors — chocolate-hued leather walls, custom chandeliers, Billy Haines chairs, Mansour rugs — plus its brick-paved tennis pavilion, full-size tennis court, manicured hedges, and carefully pruned sycamore trees.

    Baker, a charismatic but occasionally reclusive business magnate, co-founded StubHub in 2000. The company ultimately grew to become the world’s largest ticket marketplace, though Baker was essentially kicked out of the firm by his co-founder in 2004. Baker subsequently moved to London and founded Viagogo, the controversial ticket exchange company that is relatively unknown in U.S. but does major business in Europe. Last year, shortly before the COVID-19 pandemic became globally widespread, Viagogo acquired StubHub from eBay for $4 billion, a transaction Forbes later called “the worst deal ever.”

    Baker’s parents continue to reside in his childhood home in Beverly Hills, and Baker himself has a well-developed appetite for 90210 real estate. In March 2018, he paid $23.5 million for a double-lot estate in the Beverly Hills Flats neighborhood; the following January, he shelled out another $25 million for a second home in the Flats. Combined with his latest purchase, the ticket chief has spent nearly $90 million on his three Beverly Hills mansions.

    The listing was held by Josh Flagg of Josh Flagg Estates and Baker was repped by Fred Bernstein of Westside Estate Agency.

  17. Lol at the quote above from “the conservative Heritage Foundation” begging for more gov’t cheese to prop up the rental housing bubble. Losers.

    1. Not only that, but they do so using the deceptive idea that ‘We’re not talking about enormous corporate conglomerates.” But most rentals are in fact owned by enormous corporate conglomerates. Most *landlords* may be individuals, but that’s because, duh, a bunch of people who only only 1-5 units are obviously going to *outnumber* the relatively small number of huge corporations that own most of the units.

  18. ” ‘We felt pretty good moving forward, but it’s always kind of in the back of your mind. Like, is this a bad time to buy a home?’ Saco said.””

    Meet The Cratertons – Episode 57,343,200

    1. Weather in the DC area has been gorgeous for the last 10 days. Cool nights, warm sunny days ,low humidity. Rain is normal after a soggy August. This kind of weather produces excellent leaf color.

      1. Early autumn is the most perfect time of the year to me for hiking. Low humidity, no bugs, warmish days and cool nights for easy sleeping. Drawbacks are that water on the trails can be spotty. Rainfall has been low this summer up here. Reduced daylight another con. Yeah, the leaf colors should be pretty good though. I have maybe 3 more weeks to get out to NH and see the foliage before they shed. Seen snow storms on Mt Washington by Columbus Day typically.

  20. $till another law$uit that Czar.Barr & thee🍊jesus ha$ to wre$tle & get.$hed.of!

    Home Per$onal Finance Real Estate

    Landlord$ $ue CDC, Trump admini$tration over ‘unconstitutional’ national eviction moratorium$

    MarketWatch / Published: Sept. 24, 2020 / By Jacob Passy

    The eviction moratorium$ ‘will surely cause more economic harm than it prevents,’ said one trade group leader

    At least two lawsuits filed in federal court argue that the national eviction moratorium issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Trump administration earlier this month is unconstitutional.

    The National Apartment Association, a trade group that represents the apartment segment of the rental housing industry, recently joined a lawsuit filed in a Georgia federal district court seeking to roll back the moratorium. The lawsuit was brought by a group of landlords and the New Civil Liberties Alliance, a nonprofit organization that describes itself as seeking to protect civil rights and constitutional freedoms “from violations by the Administrative State.”

    The lawsuits claims that the CDC’s moratorium “violates the U.S. Constitution because the CDC has not identified any act of Congress that confers upon it the power to halt evictions or preempt state landlord-tenant law,” the New Civil Liberties Alliance said in a summary of the court filing.

    “Agencies have no inherent power to make law, and nothing in the relevant statutes or regulations gives CDC the power or authority to issue an eviction-moratorium order,” the organization said.

    The group also argues that the CDC’s order essentially “commandeers” state officials, including judges and law enforcement officers, to implement federal law.

    Read more: Renters in U.S. cannot be evicted through the end of the year due to coronavirus, CDC order states

    Meanwhile, a group of property owners in a Tennessee filed a separate lawsuit in federal district court similarly arguing that the CDC’s moratorium is unconstitutional. This case claims that by issuing the order, the CDC has prevented landlords from accessing due process with respect to the properties they own.

    Affordable-housing experts further argued that the two lawsuits against the CDC’s order are unlikely to be successful. Landlords have previously attempted to challenge state moratoria on evictions using the same arguments as these two federal cases, said Eric Dunn, director of litigation at the National Housing Law Project.

    “Every single case filed previously was dismissed for lack of merit, and we think the same thing should happen with these new cases,” Dunn said.

    As of Monday, roughly 3,500 eviction cases had been filed by private-equity firms and other corporate landlords, according to information collected by the Private Equity Stakeholder Project, an initiative that seeks to monitor these firms. In the last week alone, more than 1,860 cases had been filed.

    “Corporate landlords are moving quickly to file evictions before renters can make use of the protections,”

  21. Who will move into all those vacanies popping up in the big cities? LOL, “everybody wants to live here” ain’t gonna be the catchphrase of 2020 for those places.

    1. Nobody is moving in.

      The vacancies in Denver will grow as fast as the tent cities and needles and sh*t on the sidewalks around them.

      Arapahoe County, get f*cked Denver.

  22. Globalist media outlets are claiming 1 in 3 families suffer from “food insecurity.” They invariably profile single moms, with never any question as to why there is no husband or father in the picture. Most of the single moms sport visible tattoos, which is seldom an indicator of class, character, or sound judgement. So now in addition to working hard to provide for my own family, I must now be taxed up the wazoo to pay for every hoe-bag who spawns kids with men who aren’t going to stick around to take responsibility for them.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/24/us/child-hunger-family-food-insecurity-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

    Erin Bailey, another single mom of four in Florida, lost her job due to the pandemic and has been relying on her children’s lemonade stand and her GoFundMe campaign to make ends meet.

    Months behind on rent and bills, Bailey said the government and local officials have done little to provide support to families like her own.

    1. single mother of two Bell, 23, Of course no one asks where are the fathers or grandparents to help out Erin Bailey, another single mom of four in Florida, 8-month-old and 2-year-old daughters didn’t qualify. lost nearly 20 pounds in the past two months from her irregular diet. I think lots of people even me could lose another 20 lbs.

      1. How many guys want to support a woman with four young children other than a rich pedophile? I raised a family, wife and two children, on an engineer’s income, and it meant regular sacrifice.

    2. I just don’t get this. They get food stamps, WIC, free meals at school and all kinds of other programs, and they’re all fat as pigs. And they were getting $1000 a week unemployment. Food insecurity?

      Not to mention the expensive phones, the pricey tats, and they all seem to have 60″ TV’s, XBox’s, $100 sneakers, etc.

      1. And my favorite: the lines of expensive, late model cars at the food banks. You just don’t see a beater in those video clips.

        1. That’s what really grinds my gears. How are people driving $50,000 cars qualifying for free food? How about sell that car and use that monthly car payment money to buy your own effing food?

    4. “Children in low-income households are facing the brunt of the effects the pandemic has had on food insecurity because they were once dependent on school to provide them with two meals a day.”

      When our local K12 school system closed and went online they continued to serve three meals daily, two on the weekend, which included the parents. On shorter days the kids are send home with a bag meal too. My wife was, and is, a frequent volunteer server.

        1. The Department of Agriculture funds those K12 meal programs, and the cost authorities were likely increased when the covid crisis hit.

        2. ow providing free lunches to every student

          I think that if the percentage of kids at a school who qualify exceeds a certain threshold, then it’s free for everyone. Parents getting free meals is news to me, though hardly surprising.

        3. “And I’ve noticed schools are now providing free lunches to every student throughout the entire school year.”

          That frees up the ET money for beer and cigarettes.

  23. ‘When rates are down that low, I mean, the money is almost free,’ said Tom Smythe, a FGCU professor of finance. Smythe said there could be a downside.

    Ya think?

  24. ‘Equity makes it a little bit safer,’ she said. ‘People aren’t going to walk away from the equity.’”

    Realtors are liars.

  25. “Meegan Kliever, frustrated with the position the state is in, says change is needed before bad change happens. ‘If nothing is done then we will be forced to move out of California.’”

    Just don’t bring your California libtard attitudes and voting habits with you when you leave that failed state.

  26. “Diane Yentel, CEO of the National Low Income Housing Coalition, said, ‘Landlords are going to evict if renters aren’t paying the rent at some point.’”

    Wha? I thought all these landlords were philanthropists.

  27. One would think that with the worst fires and smoke air in California history plus layoffs and job losses as well as the most draconian COVID lockdown laws, home market would crash and prices would drop. But nope not in Sacramento and Placer county yet! Bay area locusts are buying up homes left and right over asking price. Low inventory as well.

      1. @Mafia Blocks,

        Well if prices are dropping that is good. But the other issue is super low inventory and too many people buying homes less than a week going pending. There are 50% fewer homes for sale now due to the COVID plan-demic than a year ago. Too much fear and FOMO going around with bay area tech workers moving here.

        1. With 4.4 million excess, empty and defaulted houses in CA, I’m sure you’ll find something….. especially with the way prices are plunging.

  29. I would bet any sum of money the eviction moratorium is extended past Dec 31. If Biden wins it may be a permanent thing.

    1. Exactly. Kick the can is here forever. These emboldened deadbeat squatters…er….”renters” will probably start calling it THEIR house. Can you imagine the landlord showing up and the squatter saying “GTFO of my property!”?

  30. Wisconsin authorities investigate trays of mail, absentee ballots found in ditch

    By Vandana Rambaran
    Published 9 hours ago

    OUTAGAMIE COUNTY, Wis. – Police are investigating how three trays of mail, including absentee ballots, ended up in a ditch in Wisconsin, a swing state whose voters could prove crucial in the upcoming elections.

    The Outagamie County Sheriff’s Office said the mail was found around 8 a.m. Tuesday morning near the intersection of highways 96 and CB, near the Appleton International Airport. and was immediately returned to the U.S. Postal Service, Fox 11 reported.

    “The United States Postal Inspection Service immediately began investigating and we reserve further comment on this matter until that is complete,” USPS spokesman Bob Sheehan said in a statement.

    The incident comes a mere five weeks before the presidential election, which has been steeped in partisan bickering over the system of mail-in and absentee ballots and wavering trust in the alternate system.

    https://www.fox6now.com/news/wisconsin-authorities-investigate-trays-of-mail-absentee-ballots-found-in-ditch

  31. OH THANK GOODNESS This will get me thru! Oh wait 200.00??? Trump pledges to send $200 drug discount cards to Medicare recipients weeks before election; funding source unclear. Unclear? As if funding in this house of cards economy has ever been clear.
    On teevee I see ads for prescription drug discount cards is this the same thing of do I get 200.00??

  32. “But ‘I just don’t know what would happen if our tenants couldn’t pay, because we can’t afford to pay both’ mortgages without the rental income.”

    I can’t remember for the life of me when my parents and their friends ever assumed they could get rich by taking out another mortgage to purchase a second home and rent it out. At what point did this crazed notion take hold in the collective American psyche?

    1. At what point did this crazed notion take hold in the collective American psyche?

      When working became the province of chumps, and it seemed everyone knew someone doing it and bragging about all the easy money they made. Want to see my new $80,000 pickup?

    1. The Tell
      That stock-market storm investors are so worried about? It’s already here, warns fund manager who’s returned 50% so far this year
      Last Updated: Sept. 24, 2020 at 2:21 p.m. ET
      First Published: Sept. 24, 2020 at 2:09 p.m. ET
      By Shawn Langlois
      Are lumber prices signaling trouble ahead? Patrick Smith/Getty Images

      Tiiimber?

      Michael Gayed, the man behind the risk-on, risk-off ATAC Rotation Fund (ATCIX, +0.24%) and its whopping 50% return this year, is sounding the alarm on lumber prices and what they could mean for the broader stock market. “Nearly every major correction, crash, and bear market has been preceded by weakness in lumber,” he told MarketWatch on Thursday. “The collapse over the last few weeks is a warning sign that the storm may already be here.”
      …

  35. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes: LA edition.

    From the article: a Toyota Prius, presumably driven by a white libtard, gets mobbed by BLM-Antifa thugs. Driver, probably a female or soy boy with similar hormonal composition, likely panicked and tried to get away, running over some Soros scum in the process. It’s always amusing when libtards find themselves up close and personal with what they voted for.

      1. “LA police detain, release driver after vehicle plows into protesters; at least 1 injured: report”

        Did they find the driver by matching the Ford grille emblem on his truck with the one on the injured protester’s stomach?

    3. “It’s always amusing when libtards find themselves up close and personal with what they voted for.”

      Agreed. LMFAO!

  36. World War II was “mostly peaceful” except for a few “sporadic clashes” in places like Stalingrad, Peal Harbor, Iwo Jima, Normandy and the Ardennes Forest.

    Louisville anti-racism protests resume amid tensions over Breonna Taylor ruling

    By Carlos Barria, Bryan Woolston

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Reuters) – A second night of anti-racism protests got off to a tense but mostly peaceful start in Louisville, Kentucky, on Thursday, a day after a grand jury decided not to bring homicide charges against police officers involved in the fatal shooting of Breonna Taylor.

    As a curfew went into effect after dark and police declared an unlawful assembly, a group of 200 to 300 protesters who had marched through the city for hours retreated to the grounds of the First Unitarian Church, set aside by organizers as a sanctuary near the Ohio River waterfront.

    Some of the marchers had smashed windows of several local businesses, and even a hospital, along the way, according to a Reuters journalist. But the scene outside the church contrasted sharply with violence that flared the previous night in Kentucky’s largest city.

    Angry demonstrations and sporadic clashes between police and protesters in the hours following the grand jury announcement turned bloody late on Wednesday when two police officers on crowd-control duty were shot and wounded.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-race-usa-louisville-report/mostly-calm-protests-after-louisville-police-officers-cleared-in-breonna-taylor-death-idUSKCN26E2KZ

  39. Seems like the Plunge Protection Team stepped in this morning to reverse the stock market rout the futures portended.

    Risk asset HODLers are saved!

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