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The Old Model Is Dead, And Not Coming Back

A report from the San Francisco Chronicle in California. “Sales tax data shows San Francisco’s population likely declined during the coronavirus pandemic, the city’s chief economist Ted Egan told The Chronicle. ‘We’re the worst in the state,’ he said. ‘That’s a sign to me that people aren’t here.’ Regionally, ‘it does look like it’s the tech people moving,’ Egan said, with big rent drops in high-cost cities in Silicon Valley as well. ‘That opens up a huge question, when are they going to come back? Are they going to come back?'”

Two reports from Bisnow on California. “The coronavirus pandemic and economic downturn brought San Francisco’s multifamily investment market to a near standstill that it is now just starting to crawl out of. As the city’s unemployment rate has quadrupled and companies have extended remote work policies into 2021 or beyond, apartment vacancies and dropping rents have cooled some multifamily investors’ interest in S.F., at least for now. ‘Buyers and lenders are not comfortable with vacant units anymore,’ Colliers International Vice President Payam Nejad wrote.”

“‘From everything we’ve been hearing from property managers and in the data in terms of vacancy rates and rental rates, it’s just a market that’s struggling to generate enough demand,’ said CoStar Senior Market Analyst Marco Cugia.”

“A once-humming San Francisco office market stalled by the coronavirus pandemic regressed further in Q3, posting close to a million SF of available sublease space and a more than 4% drop in average asking rent. ‘There’s no bifurcating the illness with demand in San Francisco, which is true of every major metropolitan market, but especially in San Francisco,’ said Glenn Gilmore, president of Brick & Timber Collective. ‘Until we have some clarity on the health situation, we’re going to be in a bit of a freefall from a demand perspective.'”

From Real Estate Weekly. “New York real estate powerhouse Brown Harris Stevens has launched a new consulting arm designed to help apartment developers and investors make judgement calls on their projects. ‘Our research has always been a market innovator. We look at poignant and often overlooked data points – like pioneering the inclusion of contract-signed data in reports as well as shadow inventory,’ said Stephen Kliegerman, president of Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing.”

From WBUR in Massachusetts. “The state’s housing courts are planning furiously to add resources to handle an expected flood of eviction filings that could come soon after the commonwealth’s eviction moratorium ends on Oct. 17. Doug Quattrochi of the group MassLandlords says he can’t support a proposal that requires landlords to give up rent money they are counting on. ‘What everybody seems to be jockeying around is, ‘Well, how much can we cram landlords down? You know, we’ll take 70 cents on the dollar, or we’ll take 50 cents on the dollar,’ he says. ‘I was trying to explain to them it’s not a question of profitability. There’s just a ton of mom and pops that can’t pay their base expenses.'”

The Washington DCist. “Last week, D.C. Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey DeWitt projected a $221 million revenue loss for new fiscal year that just began. In Virginia, Arlington County Board Chair Libby Garvey, a Democrat, said that congressional inaction would have a significant impact. ‘If we’re not getting any federal funding … we’re going to have to start deciding where we’re going to cut back, and that means letting people go,’ Garvey said. ‘And then you have more people who are unemployed. How are they going to pay their rent? How are they going to put food on the table? The whole thing is just a set of dominoes.'”

The Review Journal in Nevada. “Las Vegan Josuah Smith was laid off from his job last month and owes his landlord, Siegel Suites, $2,500. He’s worried he’ll soon be evicted and, at worst, have his debt sent to collections. Bob Smith requested a forbearance on his mortgage this summer after his tenant in Silverado Ranch failed to pay five months’ worth of rent, totaling $6,500. He’d like to avoid the collections process but is concerned he’ll never see the funds.”

“The tale of two Smiths highlights what many real estate experts describe as a worst-case-scenario in a rental market slowly showing signs of distress — collections. While things are currently manageable, Eric Cohen, Calida Group’s managing director said things could spiral downward for Las Vegas’ rental market. ‘If the government doesn’t extend unemployment benefits then I’m assuming it could get worse,’ he said.”

From NBC News. “Roughly 10 to 14 million renter households, or 23-34 million people, were behind on their rent by Sept. 14, according to a September report released by the National Council of State Housing Agencies. That amounts to $12-$17 billion in unpaid rent. ‘Many of these small landlords don’t have access to credit, so they can’t borrow the money they need to pay bills,’ said Diane Yentel, CEO of the National Low Income Housing Coalition. ‘The concern is that landlords might decide to sell property or walk away — and the last thing we want to do is end the crisis with renters saddled with more debt.'”

The Collegian in Pennsylvania. “In recent years, luxury high-rises have been popping up all over State College, with construction and cranes constantly obstructing the small town’s landscape. The luxury student housing boom started in State College around 2016, with apartment buildings like the Rise and the Metropolitan appearing downtown. Even so, these extravagant apartments are only a feasible option for a small percentage of students, as their rent costs thousands of dollars a month.”

“With the combination of student debt and the limited housing available to Penn Staters, I believe the housing bubble in State College will eventually burst. Even though the towering high-rises growing all over town are eye-catching and exciting to look at, they foreshadow the housing catastrophe that is soon to come.”

The Miami New Times in Florida. “Emma Haynes-Ocana, a psychology student at Florida International University, has spent the past month back at home in Pennsylvania. After a difficult couple of weeks living at the university’s newest off-campus housing option, The One at University City, she decided to move home and leave her apartment in Miami behind.”

“When she walked into her brand-new furnished unit in August, she noticed it was missing a dining table and chairs. The ceiling wasn’t painted, and the walls still had markings left from construction. Parts of the bathroom had urine stains. She assumed that workers must have used it during construction and failed to clean it up. Haynes-Ocana also says she failed an exam because of the building’s poor internet connection. (She says the professor gave her a second chance after hearing from multiple students and faculty members that it was a common issue.)”

“Billed as luxury student housing — with rent between $1,000 and $1,300 a month for a room in a shared apartment — the 886-unit building has seen a shaky first few months of occupancy. Residents arrived with construction still underway on several floors. Many rooms had holes in the ceiling. The elevator was filled with dust, and many hallways and floors bore residue from the ongoing construction.”

“Some tenants say the rooms were unfinished, while others complain that their doors or windows don’t shut properly. Accessories like microwaves and vanity mirrors were not working or were missing entirely. Several Google reviews contain complaints from residents who say their rooms came with garbage left by construction workers, including empty boxes of pizza and food left under the furniture. ‘When people try to contact The One, they don’t help. They ignore the comments on Instagram and they don’t help when you call them. It’s very frustrating,’ Haynes-Ocana says.”

From Bisnow. “Technology companies across the country expect to need less office space in the coming years, a sign of falling demand in the commercial real estate market. Tenant representation firm Savills released a survey Thursday of 250 technology companies that found 82% anticipate needing less office space over the next 12 to 18 months, and 55% plan to dispose of existing space over that time period.”

“This disposal of space is already happening in a big way, with a wave of sublease listings hitting the market, Savills Executive Managing Director Zev Holzman said. ‘Every day there is new sublease space hitting the market from tech companies of all sizes,’ Holzman said.”

“Before the pandemic, 71% of tech companies said their office density target was less than 150 SF per employee. Of those companies, 40% say they have not yet decided on their future density needs, 38% say they plan to increase their square footage per employee, 17% say they don’t plan to change it and 5% plan to reduce it. ‘A number of companies are saying the old model of 125 or 150 SF per employee is dead, and that’s not coming back,’ Holzman said.”

This Post Has 157 Comments
  1. I realize this is too long, but earlier I was going to include international crater, but there’s just too much. I’ll try to catch up later.

    ‘Some tenants say the rooms were unfinished, while others complain that their doors or windows don’t shut properly. Accessories like microwaves and vanity mirrors were not working or were missing entirely’

    How many of these student debacles have we seen now, for years? They are broke. Recession proof!

    1. Even though the towering high-rises growing all over town are eye-catching and exciting to look at

      They’re really not.

  2. ‘From everything we’ve been hearing from property managers and in the data in terms of vacancy rates and rental rates, it’s just a market that’s struggling to generate enough demand’

    Wa happened to my shortage bay aryans? BTW, this article has clowns talking about their 4% (and lower!) cap rates. You guys are muy fooked!

  3. ‘things could spiral downward for Las Vegas’ rental market. ‘If the government doesn’t extend unemployment benefits then I’m assuming it could get worse’

    It’s baked in the cake Eric. And the REIC stampeded weak minded fools into the LV shack market at the worst possible time. The guberment doesn’t have any money. They have to borrow billion$ several times a week to keep the lights on.

    1. The eviction moratoriums are being extended everywhere until Dec. 31st. When that time frame approaches, I expect them to be extended further. This is BBQing landlords.

      1. Landlords are the bagholders. And since many of them are Chinese nationals, it makes good political sense to let them take the hit.

        1. Around 90 percent of rentals are owned by small LLs like yours truly. But we tend to be non criminals and tax payers, and in 2020 America that is a group that gets no love from politicians. Maybe we should start burning down cities then we may get a sympathetic ear.

    2. Good timing for us here in Las Vegas. Lease up at the end of February.
      It’s dinnertime. Maybe I’ll order some
      Muy Fooked from the local takeout to celebrate 🎉

  4. ‘Until we have some clarity on the health situation, we’re going to be in a bit of a freefall from a demand perspective.’”

    Um, it isn’t just the “health situation,” Glenn. The far larger issue is progressive malgovernance, which is compounding the impact of the coronavirus.

  5. ‘Buyers and lenders are not comfortable with vacant units anymore’

    This is a credit event.

    ‘What everybody seems to be jockeying around is, ‘Well, how much can we cram landlords down? You know, we’ll take 70 cents on the dollar, or we’ll take 50 cents on the dollar…I was trying to explain to them it’s not a question of profitability. There’s just a ton of mom and pops that can’t pay their base expenses’

    1. This is a credit event.

      I’m anxiously awaiting this credit tightening to hit the auto and RV market. Once it does, it’s curtains. They have been doling out loans like candy all the way through the shamdemic, even to people with no jobs. In fact, when I was talking to a new car salesman he told me, and I quote, “I’ve never had anybody turned down for a loan.” He has worked at that dealership over 5 years.

      1. I’ve never had anybody turned down for a loan

        Hasn’t it been like that for a long time? Sure, the interest rate might be higher for low credit scores, but you could always get a loan. What is different now is that they aren’t checking income at all now for car loans.

          1. So subprime for over 30 years? Weird. When I bought my first vehicle on credit as a young person in 1993, they put me through the ringer before they’d extend me credit.

          2. When I bought my first vehicle on credit

            It was my third car. I went to see Mr. Morgan at the local bank. He knew my dad, so he gave me a loan. I had no credit history except for a gas station card.

          3. It was my third car.

            This was actually my 5th vehicle – I meant the first time I got a loan. I had never even had a credit card at that point so it was my first attempt at any sort of loan. I think that’s why.

          4. I couldn’t even get a loan for a used car as a 22 year old freshly graduated from university kid back in ’89. I had to borrow money from my grandfather.

      2. What is different now is that they aren’t checking income at all now for car loans.

        Yes, this is a striking fact. They literally do zero income or employment verification. As for how long they’ve been giving out loans to everybody, I really don’t know when it started.

  6. Beautiful autumn weather up here in New England. Gotta admit, glad summer is over and the scurry to do summer things justifying its use. Now onto the winter snow and misery of being cooped up inside by December. So, 5 more months to wait out until spring again, hurrah. Maybe by January we can see the cracks in everything start exposing themselves against the Dutch Boy attempts. I am very glad I do not have a mortgage right now.

    1. It’s just as bad as it’s ever been in this state. If Gideon gets elected, prepare for double bad.

      Mortgage? There’s 2 million people wishing they didn’t own a house here.

    2. “Now onto the winter snow and misery of being cooped up inside by December.”

      Indeed. We’ve got another week or two before the need to wear wool outside, and now it’s dark by 1830 (6:30:pm). Arizona will start filling-up with snowbirds soon.

      1. snowbird An old classmate of mine from Michigan sold his house there a couple of years ago, and has already arrived in AZ to spend another winter there in the desert, living out of his van, mostly on BLM land. This will be his 3rd year doing this. He is now a legal resident of SD, doing as many full time RV’ers have done. Last spring he had to bug out of AZ early due to the unknowns of COVID-19. Fortunately he has a brother who runs a Midwest farm full time, and could stay with him for the remainder of the winter.

  7. ‘Arlington County Board Chair Libby Garvey, a Democrat, said that congressional inaction would have a significant impact. ‘If we’re not getting any federal funding … we’re going to have to start deciding where we’re going to cut back, and that means letting people go,’ Garvey said. ‘And then you have more people who are unemployed. How are they going to pay their rent? How are they going to put food on the table? The whole thing is just a set of dominoes’

    Well Libby, you might want to crawl out from under yer urine soaked bed and go back to work, instead of begging for scraps that ain’t gonna arrive.

  8. ‘What everybody seems to be jockeying around is, ‘Well, how much can we cram landlords down? You know, we’ll take 70 cents on the dollar, or we’ll take 50 cents on the dollar,’ he says. ‘I was trying to explain to them it’s not a question of profitability. There’s just a ton of mom and pops that can’t pay their base expenses.’”

    Seems like what we have here is a flawed business model, Doug, that failed to take into account gub’mint intervention into contract law and trampling on property rights. Eight million small landlords are unwelcome competition for the BlackRocks with their access to unlimited FedBux, so its time to drive them out of business and hoover up their rental properties at firesale prices. The silver lining is, a lot of those 8 million landlords are going to emerge from this red-pilled AF.

    1. Eight million small landlords are unwelcome competition for the BlackRocks with their access to unlimited FedBux, so its time to drive them out of business and hoover up their rental properties at firesale prices.’

      yep maybe some folk singer will have a benefit concert like “farm aid” no probably not

      1. Yes, Blackrock will do again exactly what it did after the GFC. With the government’s help, again.

        The eviction order is actually an order to force more debt on folks that can’t afford any more debt:
        “This Order does not relieve any individual of any obligation to pay rent, make a housing payment, or comply with any other obligation that the individual may have under a tenancy, lease, or similar contract. Nothing in this Order precludes the charging or collecting of fees, penalties, or interest as a result of the failure to pay rent or other housing payment on a timely basis, under the terms of any applicable contract.”

        The eviction order itself: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2020-09-04/pdf/2020-19654.pdf

    2. “a lot of those 8 million landlords are going to emerge from this red-pilled AF”

      I seriously doubt that. They will blame Trump for not “taking care of the virus” and continue to vote the same way. Just like all these “new gun owners” won’t do squat when it comes to voting.

      I see very few of those LLs changing their view, esp. when Uncle Sucker starts bailing them out. You know that is coming to keep the housing bubble permanently inflated.

      1. I see very few of those LLs changing their view, esp. when Uncle Sucker starts bailing them out. You know that is coming to keep the housing bubble permanently inflated.

        Truth. Just read sites like “biggerpockets” to see how pervasive this disease is.

        1. Wow, I just looked at BiggerPockets. They actually have a video titled “How to become a millionaire through rental properties” I watched it. It’s amazing people put videos like this online with a straight face. His example is based on finding a $100,000 house, renting it with 100% occupancy and having to spend ZERO dollars on repairs/maint. Oh and the home price ALWAYS goes up so you will become “equity” rich. And just buy a 500K house to make you journey to millionaire status even quicker.

          https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/rental-property-wealth-generators

          1. The comments only lasted a few days before Beardy cut them off.

            I enjoyed Mr. Obvious’ take on this video:
            These Landlords Are Out of Control! Heartless Landlords Demand Rent During Coronavirus • Mar 24, 2020
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5HnH9ywNrg

            I don’t agree with everything he says in it, but he’s a nice kid and his videos are very entertaining.

          2. “He and his beard make my skin crawl.
            Are Your Tenants Unable To Pay Rent Due To Coronavirus? Here’s What To Do • Premiered Mar 20, 2020”

            The beard is hideous. The video is hideous. His “Become a millionaire” video he doesn’t mention costs, bills, maint, insurance, taxes, etc. Anyone who listens to this clown is doomed.

            Telling LLs to accept Credit Cards. Anyone who deosn’t want to pay rent wont and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Sure 6 months from now you can evict but you lost a year of rent.
            This guy reminds me of my former FIL. He retired with a great big, fat City Fighter Fighter pension and about 500K in his 401K (or whatever the Gov version for the city was called) He bought a 1/2 acre plot across from his house in Phoenix (50K) and took out 350K from his 401Kto “build a rental house” He told me his numbers, he would clear MAYBE $1400 a month assuming no maintenance costs and 100% occupancy. I told him he was crazy. He told me he would have “income for his retirement” I then showed him the math to make back his original 350K investment (assuming there are no construction cost overruns, yeah right LOL) He just kept going on about how he would be getting “income” I pointed out he could just withdraw $1400 a month from his 401K, not have built a house and deal with tenants. He just looked at me.

      2. They will blame Trump for not “taking care of the virus” and continue to vote the same way.

        I tend to agree. And if this comes to pass we may very well turn into a one party nation. I have been thinking more and more about going somewhere else, but where? Every place else in the anglosphere is just as bad, if not worse.

        Latin America? Olvidalo.
        Western Europe? Nein
        Africa? OK, that’s just a joke.
        Asia? Will you even fit in? Will they even let you in if you aren’t stinking rich?
        Eastern Europe? I am pretty convinced that it will, of its own will, return to the Russian sphere. What that implies for American refugees? I don’t know.

        1. “Eastern Europe? I am pretty convinced that it will, of its own will, return to the Russian sphere.”

          Poland, Hungary or Czech Republic. I don’t see them returning to the Soviet way any time soon. I spent a good amount of time in all 3 hunting when I lived in Germany. I never once got the feeling that anyone wanted to have anything to do with the Soviets anymore. Even the old timers in CZ who spoke Russian had nothing good to say about Russia. Poland is basically begging the US to move it bases from Germany to Poland to deter Russian aggression.

          We will become a one party country, that is the plan. To make sure something like Trump can never, ever happen again. Mail in voter fraud, Pack the Court and makes DC and PR states. Perm majority in the Senate and SCOTUS, perm Dem Presidents.

          1. I didn’t say go back to the Soviets. If anything, that’s who we and western Europe are becoming. When the EU demands that Budapest or Warsaw accept Muslim “refugees” or else, the Russians might not look so bad in comparison.

        2. I don’t know. Poland won’t be going back to the USSR voluntarily. So of course they are vilified as racist and fascist.

          But anyway, Asia is a big place and a lot of countries. China and Japan don’t want more workers or citizens than they already produce but I could see an American making a home in SE Asia somewhere between Taiwan and Thailand if they can bring their own job/money. But corruption is everywhere.

  9. Haynes-Ocana also says she failed an exam because of the building’s poor internet connection.

    Sounds like the 2020 version of “the dog ate my homework.”

  10. ‘When people try to contact The One, they don’t help. They ignore the comments on Instagram and they don’t help when you call them. It’s very frustrating,’ Haynes-Ocana says.”

    Sounds like Haynes-Ocana and her fellow special snowflakes are getting an invaluable life lesson in how crony capitalists and REIC speculators roll. Good luck seeking recourse when local government and school administrators in in the pockets of the developers.

  11. “New York real estate powerhouse Brown Harris Stevens has launched a new consulting arm designed to help apartment developers and investors make judgement calls on their projects.

    Hey Ben, why don’t you put the word out that the brain trust here at the HBB – which has consistently out-performed the REIC shills, er, housing market experts in making market calls – is available for crowd-sourced consultations? Really, all we need is a “you’re schlonged” template that pretty much applies across the board to these developers and investors.

  12. ‘There’s no bifurcating the illness with demand in San Francisco, which is true of every major metropolitan market, but especially in San Francisco,’

    CRE = CR8R

  13. ‘Key takeaways: The use of appraisal waivers at the GSEs more than doubled since January 2020. August’s slight decline in share to 40% from 42% in July is due to product share shifts. Purchase loans were a larger portion of August volume.’

    ‘The use of cash-out waivers more than tripled since January 2020. Waiver usage by loan purpose increased across the board in August, with each posting series’ highs. No cash-out is at 67%, cash-out at 30%, and purchase at 11%.’

    https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/prevalence-of-gse-appraisal-waivers-august-2020-originations/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTkROa056aGlORGRrTkRJMyIsInQiOiI0VGcyRmh5d28weXRTSEdRT2pja3JHaXVDeDZtYjg1RURKTEFxb0Y5UElscjNkR21DTU5rMW9BK1NDXC9zelQydjNWRXU5OXZcL29Mam5nbVhJNTZCQ1BDMU1mXC9mbFwvQTNcL2hKWFdYNFhVTFl5UEdPQjVSTGJoQ1lOaUlmbjNNUWt6In0%3D

    The full report is available at a PDF in the link. So why are the GSE’s competing with each other using no appraisals?

      1. But…but…numerous REIC trolls who oozed onto the HBB assured us that such loose lending was a thing of the past and bleated that “it’s different this time.”

      2. Funny, I just spoke with a couple who bought a Colorado house, no appraisal for 20K over asking. They told me they had to buy now or be priced out forever.

        1. The house next door sold for the asking price. I have heard that there are still bidding wars in Ft. Collins

          1. There were 3 houses in a row all for sale (on the street behind me) in my town. All 3 sold within a week of listing and all 3 for asking. I know because a co-worker is also a PT Real estate agent and I saw his name on the for sale sign. He also told me with a straight face (I am a renter) “That this is a great time to buy, rates are low” I had to try hard not to laugh in his face.

            I lived in Phoenix in 2007-2011 when the last bubble burst and Colorado feels EXACTLY like Phoenix did. I never bought a house there (my GF at the time did, lost 150K) and I remember asking myself “where are all these new buyers coming from and who the hell can afford these houses?”

            I am asking myself the same questions in Colorado. Seems the only difference is now the Fed has been working FT the last 12 years to keep the bubble inflated.

  14. Keith Olbermann: ‘Trump and His Supporters Must Be Prosecuted, Convicted and Removed From Our Society’

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/keith-olbermann-trump-supporters-must-prosecuted-convicted-removed-society/

    At least he’s not calling for mass executions–yet. But former ESPN host Keith Olbermann ran right up to the line in a revolutionary-style anti-Trump rant on his YouTube channel Thursday calling for the prosecution, conviction and removal from society of President Trump, his supporters and conservatives including Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett.

    1. Vladimir Lenin’s infamous August 11, 1918 cable to the Bolshevik cadres in Penza kickstarting the Red Terror against anyone who resisted the forcible appropriation of their land and property.

      Comrades! The insurrection of five kulak districts should be pitilessly suppressed. The interests of the whole revolution require this because ‘the last decisive battle’ with the kulaks is now under way everywhere. An example must be demonstrated.

      Hang (and make sure that the hanging takes place in full view of the people) no fewer than one hundred known landlords, rich men, bloodsuckers.
      Publish their names.
      Seize all their grain from them.
      Designate hostages in accordance with yesterday’s telegram.
      Do it in such a fashion that for hundreds of kilometres around the people might see, tremble, know, shout: “they are strangling, and will strangle to death, the bloodsucking kulaks”.

      Telegraph receipt and implementation.

      Yours, Lenin.

      P.S. – Find some truly hard people

      1. Greetings from Australia where we are proudly the lockdown champions of the world! Just read Suzanne Labins 1949 “Stalin’s Russia”… Lenin was such a beginner…

        1. “Greetings from Australia where we are proudly the lockdown champions of the world!”

          You Aussies blow one heck of a housing bubble too!

        2. The strict lockdowns crashed the number of cases to less than 20. That’s low enough to contact trace. Here in the US I think our only option is to mask up in some voluntary half-lockdown strategy while we wait for the vaccines.

          1. strict lockdowns crashed the number of cases

            Is that a reasonable conclusion? Like here, they only shut down certain businesses and leave a bunch of other ones open. Like here, if the grocery clerks aren’t getting sick, how can you conclude closing some other business kept anyone from getting sick?

            It’s like the argument for tin-foil hats, only brought to you by CNN.

          2. how can you conclude closing some other business kept anyone from getting sick? It was an educated guess, your mileage may vary. Educated guesses are a key part of epidemiology since its very beginning.

    2. “But former ESPN host Keith Olbermann ran right up to the line in a revolutionary-style anti-Trump rant on his YouTube channel Thursday calling for the prosecution, conviction and removal from society of President Trump, his supporters and conservatives including Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett.”

      – And Disney wonders why ESPNs ratings are down. Geniuses.
      – Mao, Pol Pot, Stalin, and now the up and coming…

      “Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.” – Benjamin Franklin said in 1759

      1. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.

        Judging by the 72% increase in FBI background checks for firearms purchases, millions of “lambs” are not about to go quietly into the Long Goodnight the collectivists have in store for them. AR-15s have become prohibitively expensive and ammo, when you can find it at all, is about double what it cost a year or so ago. Happily, there are still ample supplies of Russian-made 7.62 X 39mm ammo for a fraction of the cost of .223 or 5.56mm ammo, and Kalashnikov USA is getting ready to come out with a 100% American-made AK-103 (modernized AK-47), although a Biden-Harris win could put the kibosh on their production plans.

        https://kalashnikov-usa.com/firearms/kr-103-rifle/

        1. ‘there are still ample supplies of Russian-made 7.62 X 39mm ammo for a fraction of the cost of .223 or 5.56mm ammo’

          I’ve been catching up on the AR-15 situation. There’s probably going to be a glut (again) come out of this. The quality varies widely. Some of those $300 deals I wouldn’t touch. I’m a little skeptical of the need for a rifle anyway. I’d lean towards this with bird-shot:

          https://www.benelliusa.com/shotguns/m4-tactical-shotguns

          1. I’m a little skeptical of the need for a rifle anyway. I’d lean towards this with bird-shot:

            Yep. A rifle is good for picking people off from long range as they try to invade your 40 acre homestead. But for close combat, they’re terrible.

            Something like this looks very useful, with a few sidearms and a survival knife as backup.

            https://www.mossberg.com/category/series/590-shockwave/

          2. If you’re going to go with a shotgun, Bennelli M4 is the only way to go. The quality control at Remington and Mossberg is not what it was in the 60s and 70s.

          3. I’ve been catching up on the AR-15 situation. There’s probably going to be a glut (again) come out of this.

            If Trump wins, there’s going to be a lot of relief sales. But if Biden wins, which I fully expect, the panic buying is going to go parabolic, especially in AR-15s and AK-47s. Ditto for the ammo. There is going to be massive stockpiling of ammo, for good reason. Once Kamala Harris and her globalist handlers shunt senile Joe aside, disarming Les Deplorables and annulling the 2nd Amendment (once they pack the Supreme Court with Constitution-hating Bolshevik RBG clones) is going to be #1 on their agenda.

          4. I’ve been catching up on the AR-15 situation. There’s probably going to be a glut (again) come out of this.

            If Trump wins, there’s going to be a lot of relief sales. But if Biden wins, which I fully expect, the panic buying is going to go parabolic, especially in AR-15s and AK-47s. Ditto for the ammo. There is going to be massive stockpiling of ammo, for good reason. Once Kamala Harris and her globalist handlers shunt senile Joe aside, disarming Les Deplorables and annulling the 2nd Amendment (once they pack the Supreme Court with Constitution-hating Bolshevik RBG clones) is going to be #1 on their agenda.

          5. I just watched a few videos from newscasts around the country where deranged libtards got injured trying to steal or destroy Trump signs that were booby trapped. The comments were gold too. But the main question in my mind is how insane do you have to be to attack a sign? If a neighbor put up a Biden sign I couldn’t care less, I might even give him a thumbs up and ask him what he likes about pedo Joe to see if I can break his programming.

            I think we’re all gonna need shotguns to take out the trash come November. These fools won’t be content going after signs, new ventilation for their skulls will be installed free of charge imo.

          6. If you don’t need a semi-auto, save about $1500 and get the Benelli Nova Pump. I have had mine 12 years and it shoots anything you put it in it. Of course if I had the cash I would have an M4 also.

            For home defense I’d go with a decent pistol, 15-20 rd capacity and it may not leave you as deaf as blasting a 12 ga in enclosed spaces.

            Kalashnikov USA has been promising that AK for like 3 or 4 years now. I wouldn’t hold my breath on ever being able to buy one.

          1. The violent left can’t even decide what gender they are on any given day and yet they think they’re gonna win in a civil war.

            “They’re not sending their best”

          2. “But I’ll bet it’s the lion’s share.”

            +1

            That’s not even taking into consideration who has put in the time to safely handle and maintain them not to mention spent the number of hours sending rounds down range that is required to be proficient in using them.

          3. it’s your side

            Anyone preparing to defend their home and family from a lawless mob is exactly on my side.

          4. You shouldn’t assume it’s your side buying all the guns.

            Military veterans from the combat arms are overwhelmingly against the radical left. The hardcore Bolsheviks are overwhelmingly comprised of dirtbags like the late and unlamented Joseph Rosenbaum and Anthony Huber, convicted felons and punks, who are no match for ruthless, tactically proficient combatants who know what they are fighting for–and against.

          5. There’s a white dude with a black cap in the middle of the melee that can be seen from 0:11 to 0:55 in the twitter video and I think I found where he was working before he got the call from his current Soros sponsored employer.

            https://youtu.be/Zw33u53rF3c

          6. Anyone preparing to defend their home and family from a lawless mob is exactly on my side.

            Agreed. Notwithstanding the willfully simplistic views being propagated by the globalists that maintains that anyone who opposes collectivism is “far right” or a “white supremacist,” there are really just two categories of people: those are decent and those who aren’t. Decent people are going to band together with other decent people, regardless of race, color, ethnicity, religion, etc. to fight off a common threat.

    3. He may have left ESPN, but remember any time you pay for content produced by Real Journalists, these are the kind of people you are giving your money to.

      1. Probably a pedo who can’t get his fix anymore because orange man shut down many of the trafficking rings.

        Betcha he and that Maxwell ghoul know each other 😉

  15. “The Old Model Is Dead, And Not Coming Back”

    – That’s just another way of saying that the RE bubble is bursting.
    – There were apparently no complaints as the bubble inflated.
    – Faulty business models, malinvestment, rampant speculation, and related mania behaviors have a way of re-grounding themselves (read unwinding) in reality…
    – This is not a direct result of the CCP virus pandemic, which only served to accelerate the trend. Periods of easy money (10+ years in this case) always ends in tears, with the bust proportional to the boom. Courtesy of your local central bank.

    “We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble.” – Donald Trump – 9/26/16

    “Pigs can fly if shot out of a large enough canon; until they come down to earth as bacon.” – Harley Bassman

    “Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs? They get slaughtered.” – Gordon Gekko

    “No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich” – Lord Overstone

    “You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of reality.”  – Ayn Rand

    “There are no rewards or punishments — only consequences.” – W. R. [William Ralph] Inge

      1. ‘The United States has taken the lead in rejecting the path by which China, and even social democratic European nations have prevented the corona virus from causing widespread insolvency and polarizing their economies. The U.S. corona virus lockdown is turning rent and debt arrears into an opportunity to impoverish the indebted economy and transfer mortgaged property and its income to creditors.’

        This guy is a communist. Fook China, they did this whole thing.

        The way out of over-leveraging is de-leveraging. Just who are the creditors? GSE bond holders? The banks have been getting out of the shack business for 6 years. Whoever ends up with the foreclosed shacks can’t live in them, can’t rent them. They’ll have to sell at a big haircut. I’m seeing a lot of foreclosure biz jobs show up on my desk lately.

        1. “Fook China, they did this whole thing.”

          – The evidence is mounting. One reference from a growing list.

          https://zenodo.org/record/4073131
          October 8, 2020 Working paper Open Access
          SARS-CoV-2 Is an Unrestricted Bioweapon: A Truth Revealed through Uncovering a Large-Scale, Organized Scientific Fraud
          Yan, Li-Meng; Kang, Shu; Guan, Jie; Hu, Shanchang

          “Importantly, while SARS-CoV-2 meets the criteria of a bioweapon specified by the PLA, its impact is well beyond what is conceived for a typical bioweapon. In addition, records indicate that the unleashing of this weaponized pathogen should have been intentional rather than accidental. We therefore define SARS-CoV-2 as an Unrestricted Bioweapon and the current pandemic a result of Unrestricted Biowarfare. We further suggest that investigations should be carried out on the suspected government and individuals and the responsible ones be held accountable for this brutal attack on the global community.”

    1. ‘another way of saying that the RE bubble is bursting’

      It’s difficult to understand how large this is, and I doubt most people have any idea. What we’re witnessing is a reevaluation of all real estate, in every city on the planet – at the same time.

  16. A once-humming San Francisco office market stalled by the coronavirus pandemic regressed further in Q3, posting close to a million SF of available sublease space

    I wonder how many workers you can cram into that space with a bench seating setup? 20,000? And that million doesn’t include all the empty space at places that are already leased or owned, where the former occupants are WFH. There must be millions more square feet of unused space at campuses owned by IBM, HP, Oracle, Intel, etc.

    1. “There must be millions more square feet of unused space at campuses owned by IBM, HP, Oracle, Intel, etc.”

      – Retail and Multi-family are in the same boat. Unfortunately it’s the RMS Titanic.
      – Many are still busy scurrying about rearranging the deck chairs…

      “The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.'” – Sir John Templeton

    2. Been seeing articles pop up about how “everyone wants to return to the office”. I’d lay 2 to 1 odds that these are media placement by the oil and commercial real estate industries.

      White collar jobs are about making mouth noises and pushing plastic buttons. The company I work for has been doing just fine with everyone remote. The vast majority of people I work with don’t want to go back, and the C-Level people are happy to not have the huge expense of huge offices… positively giddy, in fact. They’ve been sending out gift boxes and gift cards every month, telling us of their appreciation.

      Might not last, but it’s awesome for now. I’m close enough to retirement I can tell them to stuff it if they try to force us back.

      1. The vast majority of people I work with don’t want to go back

        Same here.

        I’d lay 2 to 1 odds that these are media placement by the oil and commercial real estate industries.

        If I was an automaker, I’d be worried. Without the daily commute the car will last a lot longer. Like 3 times as long.

        Might not last, but it’s awesome for now.

        Who knows? If productivity keeps up, why bring everyone back? Once the lease expires you let the unused space go and save money.

      2. The vast majority of people I work with don’t want to go back

        And they won’t be going back. They will be let go.

    1. Did they publish any of the emails? Anybody got a link? Can’t figure out a search string that returns anything but people talking about the emails.

  17. “That opens up a huge question, when are they going to come back? Are they going to come back?”

    As in NYC, all the people they need to fill San Francisco are already there. They are doubled and tripled up in roommates, or living in vans, or commuting three hours from the Central Valley due to the high cost of housing. And they weren’t able to spend much on goods and services for the same reason.

    If the price of housing falls, more people will get their own place in the city, and disposable income will rise. Don’t mistake a solution for a problem.

  18. San Francisco tax revenue plunge points to resident exodus

    San Francisco experienced a 43% year-over-year decline in sales tax revenues during the pandemic, which has been credited to an exodus from the expensive city.

    San Francisco’s chief economist Ted Egan attributed the drop in revenue that occurred between April and June to a flight of individuals from the city, rather than a decline in activity due to the pandemic.

    Egan told Fox News that while areas throughout California experienced a decline in sales tax revenues, other cities saw an uptick in online sales – but San Francisco did not.

    “In San Francisco, we saw a big drop in brick-and-mortar sales, and very little increase in online sales,” Egan said. “So it raises the question, where did that spending go?”

    SAN FRANCISCO NEIGHBORHOOD SEES 100% INCREASE IN BURGLARIES DURING PANDEMIC

    Other data supports an exodus of residents from San Francisco – as remote work guidelines allow some workers more freedom in choosing where to live.

    The latest report from United Van Lines shows that outbound moving requests from the city were 128% above the national average at the start of September.

    Data from Zumper showed a continued yearly decline of 20.3% in median rent prices in San Francisco this month, which was among the largest yearly decline ever recorded – and marked a milestone as prices dropped below $3,000 for a one-bedroom in the pricey metro.

    Egan said ApartmentList data shows that rent prices declined in San Franisco by a larger amount than any other city they track as well.

    The CEO of Zumper has called the San Francisco price decline “unprecedented,” adding that it supports the theory that people are starting to leave the city as options for remote work in the technology sector become more widely available.

    Some companies, like Twitter and Facebook, have given some employees the option to work from home permanently.

    ==

    From Fox News. The link didn’t want to be copied.

    1. San Francisco experienced a 43% year-over-year decline in sales tax revenues during the pandemic, which has been credited to an exodus from the expensive city.

      Most of them are still in CA, they just fled to their 2nd homes in and around Lake Tahoe.

      1. And up in wine country.

        I expect as in NYC, it is young people who flooded into the city who lost their jobs are are leaving. They can’t afford to pay the rent.

        It happened before. SF had a big drop in population after the dot.com bust of 2000. Rents soar so high, even if you aren’t pushed out while employed you have to leave immediately after becoming unemployed.

        A cycle that goes back to the Gold Rush. You see why people want rent regulation there. If they get in at a bottom they don’t want to be pushed back out again.

    1. That may not have been a misreading of the teleprompter. With the Fed’s debasement of the currency, $15 million dollar minimum wage is probably on the horizon. Of course, that princely sum will probably buy you a cup of coffee as the Fed prints us down the road to Weimar 2.0.

    1. Wha? Already Biden said 150 million died of “gun violence” and 200 million died of COVID. Shouldn’t there be less traffic on the road and more vacant houses?

    1. It is being reported that the shooter was “security guard” hired by 9News to protect their reporters.

      9News was also very mum about who the victim was.

      I smell a rat.

      1. Check this out:

        The Denver Police Department later tweeted that the suspect is a private security guard and has “no affiliation with Antifa.”

          1. Of course they’re going to bury the victim’s identity. We can’t have anyone conducting “say his name” protests like they did for Heather Heyer(sp?).

    1. The Cubans should know a Commie when they see one.

      My family sponsored a Cuban one fleeing the Commies around 1960.

  19. Wed, October 7, 2020, 12:36 PM PDT

    (Reuters) – California Governor Gavin Newsom on Wednesday called for the conservation of 30% of state lands and waters by 2030 to protect unique species and preserve ecosystems that are key to fighting climate change.
    Newsom’s executive order also directs state agencies to craft policies to boost carbon sequestration on state lands so it can be removed from the atmosphere and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.’

    And at the same time let in millions of mostly poor Immigrants every year. Not going to work . Somethings going to blow .

    1. And at the same time let in millions of mostly poor Immigrants every year. Not going to work . Somethings going to blow .

      Every time I come across an illegal dump site, it’s filled with empty tortilla wrappers, Jarritos bottles and landscape debris. Gee, I wonder who that could be…

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