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Not All Sectors Of Our Housing Market Are Living Up To The Media Hype

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “Signs of stress in New York City’s commercial properties are fueling investor bets that trouble in the nation’s largest real-estate market could spread pain nationwide. ‘Distress in financial markets was all about residential mortgage-backed securities in 2008 and energy in 2015,’ said Daniel McNamara, a principal at MP Securitized Credit Partners, who is betting prices for some CMBS indexes will fall. ‘In 2021 it will be all about commercial real estate and the securities linked to it.'”

“Investors watch New York closely because Wall Street splices such loans up, packages them together into bonds and sells them to pension funds and asset managers world-wide. Many consider the city a bellwether, and collapsing loan prices in Manhattan developments could be a sign of trouble ahead for the more-than half-trillion-dollar market for so-called commercial mortgage-backed securities.”

“More than $3 billion worth of loans backing commercial property in the five boroughs are currently delinquent, according to Trepp, and loans in creditor negotiations total another $4 billion.”

From Footwear News on New York. “According to brokerage Cushman & Wakefield, Madison Avenue — the mile-and-a-half stretch in Manhattan where locals and tourists can find upscale boutiques and luxury fashion names — recorded a 17% decline in rents to an average of $779 per square foot during the third quarter. The firm reported that the price is down 52% from its peak over the past five years. As rents continue to fall, space availability is rising. Cushman & Wakefield shared that Madison Avenue, for instance, saw the highest availability rate in the third quarter at 35%.”

“Since March, however, a slew of major retailers — including J.Crew, Neiman Marcus and JCPenney — went bankrupt, while others have drawn down millions or applied for government stimulus funds to keep their businesses afloat. Separately, a growing list of landlords have resorted to legal action against tenants who have skipped out on their lease obligations to cut costs and maintain liquidity.”

From Boston 25 News in Massachusetts. “Community leaders in the Mass & Cass corridor of Boston are pointing to at least one positive change that’s happened during the pandemic – methadone home delivery programs. Neighbors who live in the community that’s commonly referred to by the negative nickname ‘Methadone Mile’ are skeptical that methadone deliveries will result in any noticeable changes. South End resident Elizabeth Schwartz put her family’s Mass Ave condo on the market two months ago and is determined to leave when the right offer comes her way.”

“She said the primary factor in her decision is her 18-month-old son’s safety.’I hope for this community and for the city of Boston that things improve, but I’m not banking on that happening in a reasonable time frame that affects me,’ said Schwartz. ‘It’s just a reshuffling. I don’t think that’s a win because we’re not really addressing the underlying issues.'”

From The Real Deal on Florida. “Miami-Dade County’s largest resort is no longer in special servicing. The $975 million commercial mortgage-backed securities loan for Jeffrey Soffer’s Fontainebleau Miami Beach returned to the master servicer on Sept. 23 following successful negotiations with lenders, according to Trepp data updated this week. The 15-acre oceanfront Miami Beach property includes two hotel towers with 846 rooms and two condo towers with 748 units, the majority of which can also be rented to hotel guests at any given time.”

“The Miami area’s $4.3 billion in outstanding CMBS hotel debt is the second largest in the country after Las Vegas, but only 8 percent of that is currently delinquent. By contrast, the delinquency rate is 32 percent in New York, 55 percent in Chicago, and 26 percent in Los Angeles.”

From Maine Biz. “With the number of home foreclosures in Maine rising 18.2% during the third quarter, the state now has one of the largest foreclosure rates in the country. Maine ranked No. 6 among states with highest foreclosure filing rates during the third quarter of the year, and was No. 4 for the month of September, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. That level placed Maine behind only South Carolina, Illinois, New Mexico, New Jersey and Delaware, by rank, and just ahead of Florida.”

“‘Foreclosure activity has, for all intents and purposes, ground to a halt due to moratoria put in place by the federal, state and local governments and the mortgage forbearance program initiated by the CARES Act,’ said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of ATTOM subsidiary RealtyTrac. ‘But it’s important to remember that the numbers we’re seeing today are artificially low, even as the number of seriously delinquent loans continues to increase, and that we’ll see a significant — and probably quite sudden — burst of foreclosure activity once these various government programs expire.'”

From Patch New Jersey. “This seven-bedroom Moorestown home saw its price plummet from $949,000 to $499,000 on Oct. 14. Features: Being sold strictly as is. Amazing opportunity to complete and customize one of the most iconic classical colonial homes on a gorgeous lot in Moorestown next to the highly acclaimed Moorestown Friends School campus. This vibrant location is exciting.”

The Washington Blade. “‘The housing market is roaring right now.’ ‘Home prices climb to record high in pandemic as buyers seek space.’ ‘2020: the summer of booming home sales.’ As you might have noticed, these are the types of headlines that have been dominating our news feeds across the nation and in Washington, D.C. In D.C., we experienced a delayed spring market that ramped up in June and only started showing signs of slowing toward the end of August.”

“Once September came to a close, though, everything changed. Since then, there’s been a noticeable pause in the demand for specific housing types. Condos are now collecting days on market. The luxury townhouses downtown are seeing only a trickle of showings. Agents are moving to make quick price modifications while inventory sits unsold. The question remains: What is the catalyst for this deceleration? There’s no shortage of factors that could account for the current market state. The bottom line, though, is that not all sectors of our diverse housing market in Washington, D.C. (and its surrounding areas) are currently living up to the media hype.”

The Citizen Times in North Carolina. “If you have any doubt that apartment developers see an opportunity in the Asheville area, consider the Oct. 14 Buncombe County Board of Adjustment agenda. It includes two separate applications for new apartments, one proposal to build 852 units off Sweeten Creek Road in South Asheville, and another to build 660 units at 20 South Bear Creek Road in West Asheville.”

“Kate Millar, president of the Malvern Hills Neighborhood Association, which opposes the nearby 20 South Bear Creek project, likens the spate of apartment building to the recent hotel boom and wonders if Asheville and Buncombe are becoming overbuilt. ‘t strikes me that multi-family housing is a place that investment capital from elsewhere likes to flow right now, much like hotels were before the pause. Does this roving capital really care about places that they themselves don’t live? Or is it just an extractive arrangement?’ Millar said.”

“Jack Cecil, CEO of the Biltmore Farms company, which is selling the land for the 852-unit Busbee apartments proposal off Sweeten Creek, said reports do show a continuing need for more apartments. ‘The second bellwether is, if people are building them there must be a demand,’ Cecil said. ‘That’s just pure and simple economics 101: supply and demand.'”

The Kansas City Star. “Before the tour of the latest downtown luxury apartments even leaves the lobby, Jonathan Holtzman offers a bold proclamation. ‘I think we have developed the best apartment community that’s ever been built in Kansas City,’ he said. Walking around the new City Club Apartments Crossroads Kansas City, it’s easy to see why he thinks so.”

“The new development at 20th and Main streets has just about every amenity imaginable. On the rooftop, airy cabanas, a party-sized spa and sparkling blue pool overlook the downtown Kansas City skyline. In a central courtyard, residents can enjoy the private dog park or the massive outdoor kitchen. Included in the rent is access to a fitness center, oversized bathtubs, concierge service and two movie theaters — one inside and one outside.”

“The supply of downtown rentals continues to expand at a time when the workplaces and cultural amenities that attracted many to the area in the first place have been upended — or closed altogether — by the coronavirus pandemic. And the opening of each new apartment building points to a central question: Are there now too many apartments downtown?”

“Rents on prime apartments are down as much as 10%, said Mike Tiehen, an owner of a third-party rental marketing site and president of the Tiehen Group, which owns and manages apartment buildings across the city. Eenters are finding landlords offering a free month or two of rent or across-the-board discounts on advertised monthly rents. ‘Absolutely, now is a great time to rent with all this inventory,’ Tiehen said. ‘These landlords are afraid to go into the winter months with vacancies so they’re going to be discounting rent. There is an oversupply.'”

“Christina Boveri, owner of Boveri Realty Group, which works with buyers, sellers, renters and landlords, said one thing is clear: there is plenty of rental supply downtown and across Kansas City. ‘I don’t see their books on how many people are paying rent. But I do see the vacancies,’ she said. ‘We see availability every week for most places in the city. And I know those lists have gotten longer.'”

The Real Deal on California. “Rents are free-falling in the country’s most expensive market. The median monthly rate for a studio in San Francisco in September was $2,285 per month, Bloomberg reported, citing data from Realtor.com. That’s 31 percent lower than it was a year prior. Median rents for one-bedroom units were down about a quarter year-over-year, while two-bedrooms dropped in price by 21 percent, according to Realtor.com.”

“Santa Clara and San Mateo, both in the Bay Area, also saw big drops in their median studio rents — 19 and 18 percent, respectively. San Francisco’s rent drops are among the largest in the country since the coronavirus pandemic began. Its vacancy rate has risen, too; it was at 6.2 percent as of May.”

From Bravo TV on California. “After listing her new Encino house for $9.495M last month, Dorit Kemsley just significantly dropped the price of the home. In an Instagram post, David Parnes, who is listing the property alongside his business partner and Million Dollar Listing Los Angeles costar James Harris, revealed that the house now comes with a much lower price tag. ‘MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION,’ David captioned his post. ⁠’Reduced by $1.5M⁠.'”

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This Post Has 145 Comments

  1. ‘This seven-bedroom Moorestown home saw its price plummet from $949,000 to $499,000’

    But where are the fire sales? Where are the defaults?

    ‘‘But it’s important to remember that the numbers we’re seeing today are artificially low, even as the number of seriously delinquent loans continues to increase, and that we’ll see a significant — and probably quite sudden — burst of foreclosure activity once these various government programs expire’

    1. Being sold strictly as is. Amazing opportunity

      Interesting, because spending half a million dollars on a shack built in 1750 doesn’t sound amazing to me.

      1. but but but you have a yoga studio and a hair nails salon right across the street, and you are even on a bus line, that had to be worth something extra…

    2. Still too expensive. Remember real estate always goes up.

      Property Price
      Date Event Price
      10/14/2020 Price Changed $499,000
      09/10/2020 Price Changed $949,000
      06/19/2020 Price Changed $549,000
      06/02/2020 Price Changed $579,900
      05/07/2020 Listed $599,000
      10/18/2019 Price Changed $549,000
      08/14/2019 Price Changed $899,000
      08/06/2019 Sold $435,000
      07/23/2019 Price Changed $599,000
      07/11/2019 Price Changed $499,000
      06/14/2019 Listed $599,000
      05/31/2019 Sold $360,000
      12/31/2018 Price Changed $365,000
      12/21/2018 Price Changed $380,000
      09/28/2018 Price Changed $410,000
      08/13/2018 Price Changed $425,000
      07/25/2018 Price Changed $450,000
      07/03/2018 Price Changed $475,000
      06/01/2018 Price Changed $499,000
      03/09/2018 Price Changed $530,000
      01/11/2018 Listed $569,000
      12/04/2017 Listed $569,000
      10/29/2017 Price Changed $579,000
      09/22/2017 Price Changed $599,900
      09/11/2017 Price Changed $659,900
      07/15/2017 Price Changed $699,900
      06/26/2017 Price Changed $725,000
      05/22/2017 Listed $599,900
      05/22/2017 Listed $759,900
      05/25/2005 Listed $879,000
      06/29/2004 Listed $949,000
      09/23/1998 Sold $370,000
      08/22/1986 Sold $224,000

      1. WOW. It sold in 2019 (pre-pandemic) for less than its 1998 price? Mega-wow. But interest rates? Next stop: the 1986 price. Hopefully coming soon to neighborhoods everywhere.

      2. I thought it would be interesting to filter out the history insane wishing prices and limit the data to actual sales prices

        Date Event Price
        10/14/2020 Price Changed
        $499,000
        09/10/2020 Price Changed $949,000
        06/19/2020 Price Changed $549,000

        08/06/2019 Sold $435,000
        05/31/2019 Sold $360,000
        09/23/1998 Sold $370,000
        08/22/1986 Sold $224,000

        1. I thought it would be interesting to filter out the history insane wishing prices and limit the data to actual sales prices

          Date Event Price
          10/14/2020 Price Changed
          $499,000
          09/10/2020 Price Changed $949,000
          06/19/2020 Price Changed $549,000

          08/06/2019 Sold $435,000
          05/31/2019 Sold $360,000
          09/23/1998 Sold $370,000
          08/22/1986 Sold $224,000

          1. It’s been for sale almost non-stop for 3.5 years. There’s something really wrong with that house or some wacky data entry.

        2. How much do you want to bet that the 949k entry was an EBKAC error that wasn’t caught for a few weeks? Sometimes its hard to type when tears are falling on the keyboard…

          2. Noun. EBKAC. (humorous) Acronym of error between keyboard and chair.

            “ Sometimes its hard to type when tears are falling on the keyboard…”

            Lolz! Must be gettin close to the end of the grief stages their realtors!

  2. ‘Many consider the city a bellwether, and collapsing loan prices in Manhattan developments could be a sign of trouble ahead for the more-than half-trillion-dollar market for so-called commercial mortgage-backed securities’

    Is that a lot?

    ‘More than $3 billion worth of loans backing commercial property in the five boroughs are currently delinquent, according to Trepp, and loans in creditor negotiations total another $4 billion’

    ‘The Miami area’s $4.3 billion in outstanding CMBS hotel debt is the second largest in the country after Las Vegas, but only 8 percent of that is currently delinquent. By contrast, the delinquency rate is 32 percent in New York, 55 percent in Chicago, and 26 percent in Los Angeles’

    You can see these $8 billion debt vulture funds are a drop in the bucket.

    1. ‘Many consider the city a bellwether, and collapsing loan prices in Manhattan developments could be a sign of trouble ahead for the more-than half-trillion-dollar market for so-called commercial mortgage-backed securities’

      That’s pocket change for the FED. They could swallow that whole market up in an afternoon with no ill effects, or so we’re told.

  3. ‘The 15-acre oceanfront Miami Beach property includes two hotel towers with 846 rooms and two condo towers with 748 units, the majority of which can also be rented to hotel guests at any given time’

    So it’s a condo-tel.

    2. “…The 15-acre oceanfront Miami Beach property…”

      With more frequent storms and rising sea levels, it won’t be long before everything in Miami Beach will be ‘oceanfront’

  4. By contrast, the delinquency rate is 32 percent in New York, 55 percent in Chicago, and 26 percent in Los Angeles.”

    Is that a lot?

    3. The second bellwether is, if people are building them there must be a demand,’ Cecil said. ‘That’s just pure and simple economics 101: supply and demand.’” (Asheville is delusional with lots of 2nd homes)
      Cecil’s statement is proved false by all the vacant Condos/comm. buildings throughout the world. But in his defense, he is selling the land not buying; I’d say the same damn thing if I were he. As Mr. Banker says, “you use what works.”

  6. ‘MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION,’ David captioned his post. ⁠’Reduced by $1.5M⁠.’”

    And still massively overpriced.

  7. Sen. Ron Johnson: FBI must “come clean” on whether it had access to Hunter Biden’s laptop. The senator’s innocense in expecting the DNC’s Chekists to abide by the rule of law is adorable, isn’t it?

    https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2083713926548/johnson-says-fbi-must-come-clean-on-hunter-biden-laptop

    Sen. Ron Johnson late Thursday called on the FBI to “come clean” about whether it was in possession of a laptop reportedly containing emails by Hunter Biden. The laptop reportedly included emails revealing that Mr. Biden introduced his father, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, to a top executive at Ukrainian natural gasfirm Burisma Holdings. That meeting allegedly happened less than a year before Mr. Biden pressured Ukrainian officials to fire the prosecutor investigating the company.

    1. A “noose” found in a NASCAR garage…15 FBI agents investigate.

      Bribery of a vice president and his son involved in influence peddling, corruption and pedophile movies…

      Yawn.

      1. lots of people i knew in South Carolina had “nooses” it takes 2 hands to pull down barn doors when you couldnt run electricity out to the barn.

      3. pedophile movies

        What’s the distinction between pedophile movies and child pornography? Netflix’s Cuties wouldn’t be enough of a reason to want that laptop out of your possession and in the possession of authorities.

    2. Steve Bannon breaks the hunter scandal down. Funny how you have to look abroad to get any facts because our worthless media won’t cover corruption by their puppet masters.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_zhWHsfEa0U

      Sounds like this thing has legs and those legs will be busy kicking the azzes of the Biden’s, the media and the FBI. Talk about a hat trick of scum!

    3. If the FBI was in possession of Hunter Biden’s laptop in late 2019, the FBI withheld essentially exculpatory evidence for the President during his impeachment.

    1. My understanding is that due to rapidly changing demographics in NYC that there is now a surplus of parishes. It’s not surprising that they’re spending more than they receive on the collection plate. I’m sure someone thought that building a community center would be a great idea. And now with services curtailed by Covid restrictions I’m sure the donations have shriveled up even more.

      1. The Catholic Church has paid out billions in settlements for child-molestation cases by pedo priests who were protected by more senior church officials.

        1. Yeah, but those are paid by the Dioceses, not parishes. And the Dioceses usually had liability insurance.

          2. I have heard through the grapevine that some dioceses did use liability insurance to pay. Others filed for BK.

  9. “…’Hunter has some office expectations he will elaborate.’ A proposed equity split references ’20’ for ‘H’ and ’10 held by H for the big guy’…”

    What has come to this country when the crackhead son of an ex-VP who is also running for President is making dirty deals and pledging the US as collateral? This is unconscionable. And some people are blindly voting for this guy? Unreal.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/hunter-biden-email-revelations-appear-031118947.html

    1. “…a discussion of remuneration packages for 6 people in a business deal with a Chinese energy firm…”

    2. For God Sakes, this might be the biggest bribery treason evidence by a Politician with Foreign Countries staring us right in the face. Yet the press is trying to protect this Biden.
      Hilary buying the Russian Hoax to frame innocent people and distract from her own crimes. And the FBI high ups were in collusion with this , as the press was.

      This is like a Benedict Arnold type thing when he sold out to the British for money to defeat George Washington.
      Washington found out about the betrayal by Arnold just in the nick of time to stop the damage it would of caused. Of course Washington was shocked at the betrayal and he was just about ready to give Arnold a military promotion that had been delayed.

      1. As mentioned above, the FBI is busy sending 15 people to investigate a “noose” in a NASCAR garage which was nothing more than a garage door pull that had been there for years, but that Jussie Wallace suddenly decided was racisss.

      2. Charles Ortel has detailed the scope and magnitude of HRC’s influence peddling. DJT tweeting “Corrupt politician Joe Biden makes Crooked Hillary look like an amateur” is mind-blowing.

    3. And some people are blindly voting for this guy?

      I don’t think Biden voters are blind. It seems much more likely they’re aware of the corruption allegations, and simply don’t care. To be a D voter since 2016 means having a seriously defective moral compass.

  11. What does she think the “right” offer is going to look like in the methadone mile?

    “Elizabeth Schwartz put her family’s Mass Ave condo on the market two months ago and is determined to leave when the right offer comes her way.”

    1. You stick to yer guns, Lizzie! A Greater Fool with just the right cash offer will be along any day now.

  12. Barely any pics of the inside. A gut job gone wrong?

    But it does come with a $12k property tax built in. Guaranteed never to go down!

    “This seven-bedroom Moorestown home saw its price plummet from $949,000 to $499,000 on Oct. 14. Features: Being sold strictly as is.

    1. A lot of these places will eventually go to zero. With a tax bill like that it will be hard just to get somebody to sign up.

      1. A marketing challenge. What is needed is the application onto this pig the just-right shade of lipstick.

  14. “Rents are free-falling in the country’s most expensive market. The median monthly rate for a studio in San Francisco in September was $2,285 per month, Bloomberg reported, citing data from Realtor.com. That’s 31 percent lower than it was a year prior.”

    Whatever became of Chris Thornberg and his fellow real estate shills, who predicted last spring that the pandemic would have no effect on real estate prices, which only ever go up in California? Are they planning on having a ginormous banquet of baked crow for Thanksgiving this year?

    2. Economic data suggest residents are leaving San Francisco in droves since virus lockdowns began
      By Andrew Mark Miller
      October 10, 2020 – 12:19 PM

      Sales tax revenue and other economic indicators suggest residents are fleeing San Francisco over the past six months largely due to the negative effects of coronavirus restrictions.

      The California city has experienced a drop in public transportation ridership, weak online sales tax collection, a 20% drop in rent pricing, and an office vacancy spike over the past six months, which suggests a significant drop in population, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

      “San Francisco’s bleak economic vital signs over the past six months strongly suggest residents are leaving amid record job losses, the entrenchment of remote work, and a coronavirus pandemic that shows no signs of ending,” the paper reports.

      Nine Bay Area counties saw large drops in brick-and-mortar sales taxes as stay-at-home orders took effect, including a 53% drop in San Francisco. Most Bay Area counties saw a large increase in online sales tax revenue during that same time period, except for San Francisco, which only saw a 1% increase compared to jumps as high as 36% in other areas.

      That 1% increase was the worst mark among all of California’s 20 largest counties.

      “That’s a sign to me that people aren’t here,” Ted Egan, San Francisco’s chief economist, stated.

      Zumper, a real estate data firm, has reported a 20% decline in median one-bedroom rent this month in San Francisco, which is the largest drop among all major cities.

      “There is a decline in occupancy,” said Noni Richen, the president of the Small Property Owners of San Francisco. “They’re moving home to mom and dad or somewhere cheaper.”

      Chris Thornberg, a founding partner of research firm Beacon Economics, says he believes the coronavirus lockdown measures are the driver of the economic declines.

      “As soon as the virus is under control, the economy is going to bounce back like nobody’s business,” Thornberg said, adding that he believes excessive restrictions on reopening businesses were unnecessary. “I don’t think there’s any way to stamp this disease out by shutting down the economy.”

      The city is also experiencing a significant spike in drug overdoses, which has been a trend nationwide over the past several months due in part to despair in response to coronavirus lockdown measures.

      San Francisco is on track to lose 700 people to drug overdoses this year, roughly two each day, compared to 441 people in 2019 and 259 people in 2018.
      …

        1. Exactly. COVID-19 just work people out of their trance that said they “had to be there,” no matter how high the price. It is the price that killed us, not the virus.

        1. Steer from crisis to recovery with the Financial Times
          Coronavirus pandemic
          Cases of Covid-19 continue to sharply rise in US Midwest
          Trump claims country is ‘prevailing’ despite cases passing 8m and record increases in certain states
          Medical personnel administer coronavirus tests in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The state has been one of the hardest-hit by the new outbreak in the US Midwest
          © REUTERS
          Peter Wells in New York
          October 16 2020

          The US’s third big coronavirus outbreak showed no sign of abating on Friday, with hard-hit states such as Wisconsin, Minnesota and Indiana reporting record one-day increases that pushed the nation’s overall tally above 8m.

          Although the new spate of cases has been concentrated in the Midwest and other northern states that are beginning to move into cold and flu season, other states like North Carolina are also posting record jumps.

          The US reported a further 68,124 coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since July 30, according to Covid Tracking Project data. Deaths rose by 877, down from Thursday’s one-week high of 951.

          The US has confirmed more coronavirus cases than any other country since the start of the pandemic, at just over 8m.

          Wisconsin’s tally of 3,861 cases recorded over the past 24 hours was the second record jump in infections in a row, having hit a record of 3,747 on Thursday. Minnesota and Indiana also reported one-day records of 2,297 and 2,328, respectively, while Ohio’s jump of 2,148 infections sat just 30 cases shy of its record.

          Illinois reported 4,554 new cases, up from 4,015 on Thursday and 3,117 a week ago. Although the state recorded more cases once before, that one-day spike in early September was because of reporting delays earlier in the month.
          …

          1. U.S. COVID-19 cases = 8 million
            U.S. Population = 331 million

            8 million / 331 million = 2.4%.

            Herd immunity is a long way off!

          2. Herd immunity is a long way off!

            Do people who have recovered enter into this?

            132 million tests have been reported and 10 million were positive. 7%.

            People will test positive for 14 days (?) and this has been going on for about 40 weeks.

            Does that mean 140% of the population has had it?

            Math without insight is misleading. Neither of these maths have insight. Math without insight is being thrown at us every single day. I doubt that is an accident.

          3. U.S. COVID-19 cases = 8 million

            Haven’t we beaten the dead horse enough over the inaccuracy of this number?!

          4. The only COVID-19 stat I follow is deaths. The more testing is done the more “cases” they find. Whether or not those cases matter in the long run is – unknown. Deaths are, well, deaths. Interesting how the MSM has so little to say about the trends in COVID-19 deaths.

          5. The only COVID-19 stat I follow is deaths.

            That would seem to be logical if the deaths weren’t greatly exaggerated. A motorcyclist who is killed on the road but who tests positive during an autopsy is not a “COVID death,” though his death certificate will show that, as well as the CDC numbers.

          6. “8 million / 331 million = 2.4%.”

            Didn’t know they tested all 331 million people? I want to know how I tested.

          9. “CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the numbers of influenza illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States, (1-4) as well as, the impact of influenza vaccination on these numbers. The methods used to calculate the burden of influenza have been described previously (1-2). More recently, the same model was adopted to estimate influenza-associated deaths in the United States. This methodology has been used to retroactively calculate influenza burden, including deaths, going back to 2010.”

    1. Clarence Carter YES!

      There was no dog on the mountaintop today, sadly. He is getting older and having leg problems, so I had to revisit the peak upon which Beau the mixed breed Basenji achieved his personal altitude record (12,400 feet) alone today 🙁

  18. The $975 million commercial mortgage-backed securities loan for Jeffrey Soffer’s Fontainebleau Miami Beach returned to the master servicer on Sept. 23 following successful negotiations with lenders, according to Trepp data updated this week.

    Does this mean CRE MBSs are reverting back to the original underwriters? I predict a drastic tightening of lending standards if banks know they can’t hive off their toxic-waste MBSs on unsuspecting “investors.”

    1. They list all the celebrities who threatened to leave the country Then they should list all the hysterical predictions made by “experts” that never came true.

      1. The Stars made their money and became famous because of the USA consumer . The Veterans gave their lives so they could have the freedom to sing the songs they wanted.
        But they are going to take their money and run because they are rich enough to do it.
        So than all the US citizens trapped here who cant run will be trapped in a nightmare should Biden/Harris win. And the Stars helped this nightmare by voting for a Government by the Corrupt .
        These Globalist are no different than a Hilter who wanted to rule the World.
        It’s fitting that one of the most corrupt Politicians ,being Joe Biden, is their Representative for the White House.

        1. But they are going to take their money and run because they are rich enough to do it.

          Where will they run? Taxes are sky high everywhere in the Anglosphere. The relected PM of New Zealand is called “Taxinda” by some and there is talk of taxing wealth in NZ.

    2. “Now Bruce Springsteen and Tommy Lee are the latest to threaten to leave if he wins again.”

      Maybe New Jersey could get somebody to buy Bruce Springsteen’s property and actually pay the real amount of property taxes due each year without taking the ‘Fake Farmers’ tax break.

      New Farmland Assessment Reveals ‘Fake Farmers’ Still Getting Tax Breaks

      COLLEEN O’DEA, SENIOR WRITER | FEBRUARY 28, 2017 | PLANNING

      Faux farmers and hobby farms are still helping celebrities, politicians, and companies qualify for lowball property-tax assessments

      Four years ago, New Jersey enacted a law making it tougher to qualify for a preferential farmland property tax assessment in an effort to weed out “fake farmers.”

      With the new rules now in effect, the law may have led to a small reduction in the number of properties considered farms for tax purposes and in the total value of farm parcels, but whether it wound up forcing “fake farmers” to pay their fair share in taxes is questionable.

      But many dubious “working farms” continue to enjoy reduced taxes due to farmland-assessed properties. These include:

      Celebrities – rockers Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi and publisher Steve Forbes;

      https://www.njspotlight.com/2017/02/17-02-23-new-farmland-assessment-reveals-fake-farmers-still-getting-tax-breaks/

    1. The only passion on the left is for violence against the right, not for their corrupt fossilized candidates.

      Got in a little machete practice today, ready for the “mostly peaceful” meltdown that’s incoming

      1. Yet I’m told by my betters that the right is the only side arming itself for civil war.

        I need better betters.

        1. I don’t think anybody says antifa isn’t arming up. People just like to note that their enemies have a big head start in both weapons and training, and the rule of law that antifa are trying to tear down is the only thing keeping them alive at the moment. They are sawing at the branch they are standing on.

          3. Elections aren’t decided by parade in the USA.

            True. But enthusiasm seems to be important in most elections. How often does the guy win whose biggest fans are just holding their nose and voting?

          7. This is the parade that matters

            True. But I’m going to LMAO if it turns out that most of them are there to anonymously vote against antifa. We’ll see in a couple more weeks…

        3. That’s stunning right there. In liberal lalaland? Stunning.. The overwhelming and overt support for a presidential candidate is unprecedented…. and so are these popup rallies happening everywhere. (they’re popup for some very good reasons BTW)

          Just concede now ChinaJoe…… just concede now.

          1. You should bone up on your California political geography. The OC is not LaLaLand. It’s quite conservative, with pockets of old and new money sprinkling the coast. The house known as Richard Nixon’s ‘Western White House’ is located in The OC.

          3. CR8R

            “Richard Nixon’s former presidential retreat in San Clemente, Calif., is back on the market for $57.5 million, a nearly $7 million discount from its most recent asking price last year, and a 23% discount from its original price of $75 million four years ago.”

          5. Mas CR8R…

            It’s hard to hide real estate losses in the Zillow era.

            Zillow App
            9 bd
            15,000 sqft
            4100 Calle Isabella, San Clemente, CA 92672
            Off market
            Zestimate®: $6,812,491
            Rent Zestimate®: $11,550/mo
            Est. refi payment: $30,916/mo

            Overview
            Note: This property is not currently for sale or for rent on Zillow. The description below may be from a previous listing.
            This is the most significant and private oceanfront estate in Southern California. Its 5.45 acres of pristine oceanfront property, with 450 linear feet on the beach, are enveloped in the most magnificent coastal gardens and grounds found in California. The completely walled compound affords panoramic views of the ocean and sunsets from its preferred elevation. The Spanish Colonial Revival architecture of the restored and modernized main residence, circa 1927, has been featured in Architectural Digest on three occasions. The gleaming white structures contrast perfectly against the vibrant colors of the impeccably kept seaside gardens. Stands of exotic palms and Monterey Cypress sway in the ocean breezes whilst overlooking wide expanses of emerald lawns. There is approximately 15,000 s.f. among the various buildings, which include the main residence of approximately. 9,000 s.f.; a 3,000 s.f. entertaining pavilion (w/ guest wing), a two-bedroom guest house, and multiple staff accommodations. An oceanfront swimming pool, lighted N/S tennis court, and putting green complete the property. All of this rests behind three sets of gates. Nothing compares and this is never to be replicated.

            Facts and features
            Type: Single Family
            Year built: 1926
            Heating: Forced air
            Cooling: Central
            Parking: 6 spaces
            Lot: 5.45 Acres

            Interior details
            Bedrooms and bathrooms
            Bedrooms: 9
            Bathrooms: 14
            Full bathrooms: 9
            3/4 bathrooms: 1
            1/2 bathrooms: 4
            Exterior features: Stucco
            View description: Water, City
            On waterfront: Yes
            Region: San Clemente

            Price history
            DATE EVENT PRICE
            1/1/2020
            Listing removed $57,500,000
            Source: Compass
            5/10/2019
            Listed for sale $57,500,000 (-9.4%)
            Source: Compass
            12/5/2018
            Listing removed $63,500,000
            Source: Compass
            5/18/2018
            Listed for sale $63,500,000
            Source: Compass
            1/31/2018
            Listing removed $63,500,000
            Source: Compass
            3/9/2017
            Listed for sale $63,500,000 (-8%)
            Source: Compass
            1/28/2017
            Listing removed $69,000,000
            Source: HOM Sotheby’s International Realty
            11/14/2016
            Listed for sale $69,000,000
            Source: HOM Sotheby’s International Realty
            10/6/2016
            Listing removed $69,000,000
            Source: HOM Sotheby’s International Re
            4/14/2016
            Price change $69,000,000 (-8%)
            Source: HOM Sotheby’s International Re
            6/26/2015
            Listed for sale $75,000,000
            Source: HOM Sotheby’s International Realty

          6. The OC is not LaLaLand.

            It’s relative. By SoCal standards it’s conservative. By flyover standards, not so much.

        5. Seems like they were in a big hurry to leave town, driving at a very dangerous speed with a nearby crowd.

          And the fake crowd noise was a nice touch.

          2. Maybe it was the quality of the video, repeating the same crowd images and sounds block after block, or the motorcade rounding corners in close proximity to crowds at unsafe speeds, but the video looked fake. It reminded me of the backdrop to some of my kids’ video games.

            Not to suggest that it matters if the video is authentic or not…

          3. Looking at the video… yes, I think the crowd noise is superimposed and the video is sped up. However, the footage is authentic. Thousands of Trump 2020 flags waving in the wind … you don’t just whip up a CGI scene like that, and not in one day. No, it’s got to be real.

            And there’s no repeat to the crowd images either. There’s no jump cut, and I never saw the same building twice.

        6. Meanwhile, in San Francisco …

          Conservatives staging San Francisco rally clash with counterprotesters
          https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Conservatives-staging-free-speech-rally-attacked-15655736.php

          SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A free speech demonstration staged by conservative activists quickly fell apart in downtown San Francisco on Saturday after several hundred counterprotesters surged the area, outnumbering and attacking those gathered, including knocking one in the mouth.

          A photographer working for The Associated Press witnessed a Trump supporter being taken away in an ambulance and an injured San Francisco police officer on the ground by San Francisco’s United Nations Plaza.

          1. “Philip Anderson, the organizer of the event, posted photos to social media of his bloody mouth with a front tooth missing and another hanging loosely. He said anti-fascist protesters attacked him “for no reason.”

            Correction:

            (Peaceful) “anti-fascist protesters attacked him “for no reason.”

          2. The “anti-corporate” Antifa thugs will always rush to the defense of the oligarchy’s creepy tech giants like Twitter.

    2. “Joe Biden refuses to answer question about FBI seizing son’s laptop”

      And gets away with it.

      So far.

      1. ChinaJoe has been on the take and selling influence to sworn enemies of the US.

        This is treason.

      2. And lost in all this thus far: Obama was either complicit or stupid for not knowing what was going on. And as much as I despise him, I don’t think Obama is stupid. This is reminiscent and analogous to HRC and Bill’s Monica Lewinsky scandal.

        1. Wasn’t the Monica Lewinsky situation about the President having an illicit extramarital affair?

          I’m sure glad we have that era behind us!

      4. There’s one more Presidential debate. The stooge from NBC will try to ignore the story, but 100% Trump will bring it up himself.

  26. Does it scare you to realize the stock market is on almost the same trajectory it followed in 1987, leading up to the record one day percentage drop of 20% off the Dow in the Black Monday crash?

    Not to worry! The stock market always goes up, in the long run.

  27. Go figure …

    Coronavirus Tanked the Economy. Then Credit Scores Went Up. – WSJ
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-tanked-the-economy-then-credit-scores-went-up-11603013402#:~:text=While%20the%20coronavirus%20was%20pummeling,according%20to%20Fair%20Isaac%20Corp.

    (a snip)

    “The average credit score hit a record in July after millions of Americans had lost their jobs, scrambling lenders’ underwriting models

    “Millions of Americans lost their jobs and skipped debt payments this year. You wouldn’t know it looking at consumer credit scores.

    “While the coronavirus was pummeling the U.S. economy, Americans’ credit scores—a metric used in nearly every consumer-lending decision—were rising. The average FICO credit score stood at 711 in July, up from 708 in April and 706 a year earlier, according to Fair Isaac Corp., the score’s creator.”

    (this article is pay walled so this will all you will get from me)

    1. More go figure…

      Homebuilder confidence is skyrocketing against the backdrop of a pandemic with no end in sight and cratering real estate demand from coast to coast.

      What gives? Was a new injection of housing demand stimulus just announced?

      1. Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Increases to Fresh Record High
        By Gufeng Ren
        October 19, 2020, 7:00 AM PDT
        Updated on October 19, 2020, 7:15 AM PDT
        – Record-low mortgage rates drive gauges of sales, outlook
        – Shortages of labor, building materials represent risks

        U.S. homebuilder confidence advanced in October to a fresh all-time high as record-low interest rates continued to fuel sales and the demand outlook.

        A gauge of builder sentiment climbed to 85, the highest in records back to 1985, from 83 a month earlier, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Market Index released Monday. The October reading was stronger than the median forecast of 83 in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and marked the sixth straight month builder sentiment has exceeded the consensus estimate.
        …

          1. I guess the Fed’s ultralow rates forever policy helps offload new construction on greater fools?

  29. When you think about it, the Founders of this Country and Government, started a idea that the individual would have all the rights and the Government was in service to that. No king or one special interest group would rule.
    Now you have some very sinister groups like Commies and Globalist Monopolies wanting to undue that power by the people with the Constitution
    protections.
    Commie Gov programs telling you what you get or Globalist Monopolies controlling what you get is just a form of top down control of resources, no different than king rule.

    Corrupt Biden and Harris don’t speak for the soul of America, but rather the defeat of America and the foundations it was built on.
    I would think that Globalism or Commie Rule would be just as horrible as they though King Rule was.
    Bottom up rule( the people), verses Top Down rule ( Kings, Commies, Globalist, Monopolies).
    Dumb ass brainwashed Voters voting to dismantle America . Wow just wow.

    1. I would think that Globalism or Commie Rule would be just as horrible as they though King Rule was.

      Rule of man (whether one or many, regardless of what group they come from) sucks compared to rule of law. But rule of law requires a certain amount of self discipline from the majority of voters. If that slips away then rule of man inevitably takes over. “A republic, if you can keep it”.

      1. rule of man inevitably takes over The “Prince Valiant” weekly comic strip this past weekend had the prince’s wife make a wisecrack about “demokratia” which I thought very apt.

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