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You Know What, I’ve Seen Enough, I’m Outta Here

A report from the Herald Tribune in Florida. “The good news: foreclosure activity has fallen to historic low levels in the Sarasota-Manatee region. The bad: more local homeowners are falling behind on their mortgage payments, a troubling sign that foreclosure rates could head up in the months ahead. Some experts believe foreclosure filings may soon explode. The 30-day delinquency rate for local mortgage payments has more than doubled in the past year, jumping from 2.6% to 5.8% in July, real estate database CoreLogic reported. The ‘serious’ delinquency rate – payments at least 90 days past due – is up from 1.0% to 3.8% in the past year.”

“All states logged annual increases in overall and serious delinquency rates. COVID-19 hotspots were again impacted the most, with Florida posting the fourth-highest gain. ‘Given the unsteadiness of the job market, many homeowners are beginning to feel the compounding pressures of unstable income and debt on personal savings buffers, creating heightened risk of falling behind on their mortgages,’ said Frank Martell, president/CEO of CoreLogic.”

The Boston Herald in Massachusetts. “Paulette Houston, landlord, Roxbury, 66, said her tenants of two years were already two months behind on rent when the pandemic struck and are now more than $12,000 in arrears. ‘I’m at the point where I don’t know what to do,’ Houston said. She has been forced to dip into her retirement account to cover the costs. She feels small landlords like her have been ‘forgotten’ by an eviction moratorium she says she was originally in favor of, but said tenants have ‘learned to take advantage of.'”

“Houston said she doesn’t want to evict the family that lives in her three-bedroom apartment, but worries she ‘won’t have enough money … to have a comfortable old age’ as her savings keep going down.”

“Leo Sheehan, landlord, Falmouth, 63, will be at Housing Court when ‘the doors open’ on Monday to move forward with evicting the sole tenant in his New Bedford condominium — a first for the landlord of nearly 30 years. The retired father of two had plans to sell his longtime rental property of 15 years even before the pandemic to help his son cover the cost of law school. His tenant of three years stopped paying the $800 rent and has ‘ignored all communication’ since the state enacted an eviction and foreclosure moratorium in April. She owes $5,600.”

“‘It’s not about the money. I’m a good guy. I pay my bills. I try to do the right thing, why should I be suffering for someone who is gaming the system?’ he asked.”

From The City on New York. “Mom-and-pop landlords across the city say they are reaching a breaking point, after half a year with many tenants paying no rent at all as pandemic-related unemployment has swelled. And they’re backing aid for tenants, which could also help them weather the ongoing crisis. On Friday, small landlords, many of them immigrants, rallied in pouring rain at City Hall, pleading for relief that will aid tenants — and by extension allow building owners to pay mounting mortgage, tax and utility bills.”

“Landlords pleaded for property tax relief, beyond the state’s action to delay the sale of tax debts from property owners already in default before the pandemic. Some held signs in Chinese and English that said ‘Expedite Housing Court Cases’ — a reference to a statewide eviction moratorium that Gov. Andrew Cuomo has extended until Jan. 1.”

“‘A lot of people are dipping into their savings,’ said Joanna Wong of the Small Property Owners of New York, a nonprofit representing mom-and-pop landlords. ‘A lot of people are taking loans out. A lot of people are just deferring their mortgage.'”

“Nick Schmitt, a program director for New York Peace Institute, which is providing free mediation services through the project in Brooklyn and Manhattan, said both sides are encouraged to share their perspective and financial realities, which reveals how interconnected they are by the economic crisis. ‘In the past, we’ve had landlords share that they had to completely wipe out their 401K in order to cover the mortgage while tenants haven’t been paying,’ Schmitt said. ‘They have no retirement fund left. They’ve basically sacrificed their entire future in order to help the tenants stay in the apartment … and that impacts people.'”

From Bisnow New York. “Avison Young Tri-State Investment Sales Group Head James Nelson discusses the strained investment sales market in New York City. There is activity, James says, and his team recently picked up 20 new listings. ‘Half of those owners are clients that have owned their properties for more than 20 years, and this is a phenomenon that I did not see back in the last correction — where long-term owners were saying, ‘you know what, I’ve seen enough, I’m outta here,’ he said. ‘I think we can all agree this is not going to fix itself overnight, and a lot of our clients are saying, ‘I don’t have another cycle in me.’”

The Press Democrat in California. “For Keith Becker, owner of DeDe’s Rentals, one of the region’s largest property management firms, this is the most complicated time in 26 years in the business. Apart from property foreclosure protections, there has been little support for landlords, Becker said. They’ve been forced to absorb thousands of dollars of short-term losses with little recourse, and navigate constant changes to laws and regulations. He disputed the scale of the evictions taking place across the county. Of his roughly 480 occupied properties, which cover a broad range of income levels, 11 households are struggling because of the pandemic, Becker said.”

“‘I have tenants who are suffering and been genuinely impacted, but I also have tenants who are playing games with me,’ he said.”

From Cal Matters in California. “In the Bay Area, what used to be the packed parking lot of the San Francisco Giants is now a makeshift drive-thru food pantry. Collective food fridges popped up in front of Oakland houses so the hungry could eat. One in four Californians have filed for unemployment since March, and the state’s unemployment rate in August was still three points higher than the rest of the country, with 11.4% percent, according to the state Employment Development Department.”

“Sarah Rivas was barely making rent since she moved to the city of Sunnyvale in Silicon Valley. Then, three months into the pandemic, she woke up to an email from her school announcing a nearly 7% cut in teachers’ pay, and she gave up a three-year battle. ‘I moved into my parent’s house,’ said Rivas, who’s been teaching her class of twelfth graders from Sacramento, three hours from their high school. ‘Not what every 26-year-old wants to do.'”

“Rivas makes above the median household income in the U.S. and hasn’t lost her job due to pandemic closures. Yet her inability to financially survive the pandemic is the manifestation of a foundational economic fracture between California’s haves and have-nots. And for many middle-income workers, the pandemic marked the end of ‘barely making it.'”

“She isn’t the only one struggling: one Mill Valley high school teacher, who asked not to be identified, described contemplating sex work to fill the gaps left by her roughly $65,000 salary. Others switched to gig or low wage work. Experts worry that, on top of increased distress for the poor, the state’s already-shrinking middle class is taking a hard hit too.”

From Bloomberg. “The Federal Reserve and other central banks will eventually discover that breaking up isn’t easy after partnering with their governments and the financial markets to avert a pandemic-driven depression. Investors and lawmakers enamored with cheap money may well balk when monetary authorities try to throttle back their quantitative easing and other stimulus measures.”

“‘They are increasingly on what I call a no-exit paradigm,’ Allianz SE chief economic adviser and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mohamed El-Erian said on a panel discussion last week.”

“The trouble may start after a virus vaccine is approved and distributed and the U.S. and world economies begin to return to normal. If the Fed and other central banks are constrained from scaling back emergency stimulus at that point, the continued flood of liquidity could spur asset bubbles and even too-rapid inflation.”

“The big debts that governments are racking up are ‘going to make it difficult for central banks to raise rates when they feel the need to do so’ because that will increase borrowing costs, said former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner.”

“Former Bank of England policy maker Paul Tucker agreed that the financial markets have come to expect periodic support from central banks after years in which monetary policy makers effectively delivered just that. ‘I wait, longing for a central banker to do for financial stability what Paul Volcker did for inflation, which is to break that psychology that you, the capitalist markets, are actually utterly dependent on the Federal Reserve and other central banks, propping up prices come what may,’ Tucker said.”

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This Post Has 128 Comments

  1. ‘worries she ‘won’t have enough money … to have a comfortable old age’ as her savings keep going down’

    ‘A lot of people are dipping into their savings…A lot of people are taking loans out. A lot of people are just deferring their mortgage’

    ‘In the past, we’ve had landlords share that they had to completely wipe out their 401K in order to cover the mortgage while tenants haven’t been paying…They have no retirement fund left. They’ve basically sacrificed their entire future in order to help the tenants stay in the apartment’

    I’m confused. UHS say you can always sell?

    2. They HAVE been selling. That’s what your title is all about.

      ❤ Raoul Pal ❤ at Real Vision described this pandemic as the Panic Phase, the Hope Phase, and the Insolvency* Phase. Right about now we are leaving the Hope phase. People thought things were going to return to normal. But now they realize things are NOT going to get better, not in time to save their businesses. They know they are cash-flow insolvent, and it’s time to cut the losses while they still have assets.

      —————
      *In this context, ❤ Raoul ❤ appears to refer to cash-flow insolvency, not accounting insolvency. In cash-flow insolvency, you don’t have enough cash to keep up the payments on your debts (principle and interest) and you won’t be able to pay anything off. You’re not in default yet, but you know you will be.

  2. ‘the continued flood of liquidity could spur asset bubble’

    See, Bloomberg is one of the few MSM that is allowed to mention the B word.

    1. “‘the continued flood of liquidity could spur asset bubble’”

      “See, Bloomberg is one of the few MSM that is allowed to mention the B word.”

      Yeah, but I noticed the word “could” appeared shortly before that ugly “B” word was used. This word tends to soften the reality of what is currently going on.

    2. Seems like Fed insiders nowadays openly discuss worries that their own policies may foster ripe conditions for asset bubbles to inflate. Contrast this to 2004, when the entire macroeconomics profession flat out denied the possibility that asset price bubbles could even exist.

      This is a sign of progress…

      1. “Seems like Fed insiders nowadays openly discuss worries that their own policies may foster ripe conditions for asset bubbles to inflate.”

        Probably resembles a game of, “Hot Potato.”

  3. If you couldn’t see that coming – you shouldn’t be a landlord.

    “She feels small landlords like her have been ‘forgotten’ by an eviction moratorium she says she was originally in favor of, but said tenants have ‘learned to take advantage of.’”

    1. She wasn’t forgotten. She was targeted to have her asset commandeered by the government to promote a socialist agenda.

      Once contract law is out the window, no investment can be researched.

      1. “She was targeted to have her asset commandeered by the government …”

        Yep, it’s part of what is to be called The Great Reset.

    2. tenants have ‘learned to take advantage of

      No quicker than the rent-seeking class learned to take advantage of Fed policy that was bad for the rest of the country. They thought they were so smart…I guess now tenants are smart too.

      1. It is interesting how quickly people learn to “work the system”. Like how semi-literate, non English speaking illegals manage to mooch off the government teat in no time flat.

        2. Their extended family is already leaching. Word spreads quickly. I remember years ago some illegal saying “we’d like to thank the American people for their generosity.” It went over like a lead balloon. The American people aren’t on board with this, only the globalists.

  4. ‘Apart from property foreclosure protections, there has been little support for landlords, Becker said. They’ve been forced to absorb thousands of dollars of short-term losses with little recourse’

    Foreclosures, in California? Sacré bleu!

  5. That was nice of them.

    Now what? You’re fooked.

    ” ‘In the past, we’ve had landlords share that they had to completely wipe out their 401K in order to cover the mortgage while tenants haven’t been paying,’ Schmitt said. ‘They have no retirement fund left. They’ve basically sacrificed their entire future in order to help the tenants stay in the apartment … and that impacts people.’”

  8. They are asking for a government bailout, but NYC, NY State and the federal government are broke too.

    Meanwhile, asset prices must remain inflated, and the dollar high enough that we keep importing, come what may. Until that is no longer possible.

    As long as they pretend that the situation is primarily a matter of “confidence,” or the virus, no one will dare to call a spade a spade.

    1. ‘asset prices must remain inflated’

      Except they are already sinking like a turd in a well:

      The Real Deal
      Troubled commercial properties see values fall 27%:
      report
      The value of the collateral for commercial mortgage-backed securities has been written down by 27 percent on average when properties get …
      3 weeks ago
      Financial Times
      Destruction of value in US real estate revealed
      … are being written down by 27 per cent on average, data from Wells Fargo shows. New appraisals are triggered when a commercial property …
      3 weeks ago

      1. Crater, crater everywhere, but not a mutual fund worth buying. The Vanguard REIT index is down 10.8% YTD, down 12.2% year-over-year.

        New appraisals might trigger something that triggers something that triggers something that filters down to small, simple investors just looking for a non-bubble price and a decent shot at a decent going forward return. Got to wonder when, however.

    2. asset prices must remain inflated

      They can do that with the stock market by buying in the futures every evening, creating gap up opens, but you can’t really babysit an entire housing market like that.

    1. Reason #4: Lenders Aren’t Approving Sub-Prime Loans

      And there’s this link:

      Free Video Series: How to Buy a Home with No Money Down

    2. “…I was laughing so hard at:…”

      Yet another example of selective amnesia by the REIConplex.

      If all five bullet points were reversed, the REIConplex would still try to convince you that its a great time to buy.

      1. If all five bullet points were reversed, the REIConplex would still try to convince you that its a great time to buy.

        I’ve gotta assume if everything were the opposite of the way it is now, they would have to be more correct.

    3. Here’s a quick summary to the reasons:

      Reason #1: The Economy is Just Too Strong

      Reason #2: Housing Prices are Only Growing Moderately

      Reason #3: Housing Prices Aren’t Inflated

      Reason #4: Lenders Aren’t Approving Sub-Prime Loans

    4. I don’t mind debate one bit – but you need to come with facts – I was in San Diego 2001 to early 2007 before I went overseas to invest in real estate – and, by 2005 advised all my clients, family, friends to sell, as the aggressive loans weren’t being offered anymore, hence people couldnt buy.

      I came back in 2012 and have seen the bottom to top again.

      I have done real estate, loans, and investing in many markets all over the World.

      I will address San Diego as that’s where I am now based – and, my site actually has stats going back 16 years.

      1) The inventory in August 2006 was over 26,000 units – end of last month it was less than 4,200 – that’s down over 80%.

      2) Mortgage rates were 5.82% as of August 2006 and are 3.02% as of July 2020 – that’s almost cut in half.

      3) The medium percent of list price is 100% – that means owners are getting over asking price

      4) There are no crazy loans – pay option arm, 2 year fixed with 5 year pre pay, neg am, stated/stated, etc. FHA, VA, USDA, Conventional – are either 15 or 30 year fixed.

      5) A down payment assistance loan – you get a 3 or 3.5% loan for your down, you get a conventional or FHA loan behind that – 100% financing. Structured correctly, we have seller pay your costs. Thats hardly anything like stated/stated. I know, I did them. They were called liar loans. These are tough to qualify for.

      People always want to talk about prices – don’t sell, ever.

      Who cares if prices go up or down.

      If you live in it – rates below 3%, you pay down your balance faster, you get tax write offs like: mortgage interest, property taxes, and mortgage insurance if you have it.

      Then, move out of that one, rent it, and you get all those tax write offs as well as: HOA if there is one, depreciation, and a laundry list of others.

      Buy a new one – and get those tax breaks.

      There’s a reason why real estate investors legally can pay little to no taxes – whether you are w2 or 1099.

      Have a W2 job – buy real estate on the site, get a few properties, legally pay little taxes, pay down/off that balance, you are set up.

      Prices go up – cool – dont sell.

      Prices go down – cool – dont sell.

      I have VA buyers getting 2.25% rate, using $0 down, and if worse comes to worse – they can leave, get tenants, and the rent they get will cover their mortgage.

      And they get the tax breaks, principal buy down, and over time, appreciation.

      Are prices high? Yes.

      Could they go higher? Yes.

      Could they stay the same? Yes.

      Could they go down? Yes.

      Who cares, stop looking at it like bitcoin, and take a long term approach.

      And for those that say I just cheerlead real estate – why wouldnt someone sophisticated in real estate, loans, investing, and deal structure want it to crash?

      I simply look at the numbers behind it – versus non facts.

      2. someone sophisticated

        I can’t begin to tell you how we long for advice from someone sophisticated.

  10. My general take away from today’s post and many others posted on the HBB in the months past, is far too many people have badly overleveraged themselves.

    Intentionally or unintentionally, it doesn’t matter. because the consequences are the same. Kinda sad, really.

    One of my greatest irritations with the REIConplex is that they try to convey that all R/E is a can’t lose proposition and a sure pathway to instant riches.

    Like the old joke about jumping off a 200 foot high building. Everything is great for the first 199 feet.

    1. “One of my greatest irritations with the REIConplex is that they try to convey that all R/E is a can’t lose proposition and a sure pathway to instant riches.”

      Hey, they use what works.

    2. Been lurking on nextdoor.com and the natives here in Agrestic are restless… to the point of loud verbal street altercations. Apparently it’s getting hard to scrape up those 7k house payments, and the $1000 Tesla payment don’t help any.

    3. My general take away from today’s post and many others posted on the HBB in the months past, is far too many people have badly overleveraged themselves.

      The overlevered will be easily wiped out. That’s a no-brainer. I’m much more interested in the people who can afford the payments but who bought at the top thinking “this time it’s different.” In other words, my friends who just closed on expensive houses. 50% off is in the bag, in my opinion. 75% is a real possibility. I am anxiously awaiting their reactions once their sh!tbox isn’t worth jack, and their entire neighborhoods are foreclosure wastelands. I’ll probably say “I told you so,” because they were a little too vociferous with their gloating about their Tesla stock, their fake equity, etc.

    4. “is far too many people have badly overleveraged themselves.”

      Yes, it is a bit sad because the majority of these people were led to believe, from the last 20 or so years of home flipping shows and keeping up with the Joneses and double digit home appreciation, that RE was a “can’t lose” “no brainer” investment (until it isn’t). But as goofy as it is now, I truly believe 10 years from now everyone will be looking back at 2020 saying those really were the “good old days”.

  12. https://www.trulia.com/property/3240862695-0-Lupine-Ln-Santa-Cruz-CA-95065

    no bubble here…

    I looked at this property about 2 years ago because it is remote and up a hill away from the local zombies and yet close to work / schools etc. Also next to the Chaminade resort with pretty good food (pre rona). $745k wish price down to $329k. sold in between for $400k. Guessing the cost to build is probably pretty steep. Ill be ready to vulture in when the courthouse is auctioning it off.

    1. Have you reached out to the architects? They might be willing to share what information they have. I did that for a lot that I was interested in a couple of years ago.

      1. Thats i good idea thx. If it fell under 100k i would contact them. I own a couple acre undeveloped res property up in the SC mountains i purchased back in 2012 but its in the sticks and wouldn’t be ideal for anything more than a small cabin (was kinda hoping it would burn down during our last epic fire darn it!). Did your Encinitas property close escrow / funds in your hands?

    2. Almost $330k for a little over an acre of dirt? Whoa, pilgrim, check yourself. A friend bought almost 30 acres with a view overlooking Folsom, with a well, septic power and an old trailer for HALF that.

      1. Folsom and Santa Cruz are worlds apart. Unless there is some impediment to actually building on the Santa Cruz lot its going to sell. Santa Cruz is one of those places rich people want to be and they’ll pay ridiculous amounts for the opportunity.

      2. A friend bought almost 30 acres with a view overlooking Folsom, with a well, septic power and an old trailer for HALF that.

        Dayum…what’s the definition of “overlooking” in this context? Was it a few years ago? I don’t see anything like that in EDH “overlooking Folsom” these days. But if you mean halfway to Tahoe, then I don’t know that stuff.

        1. The term “overlooking” means a nice view of the reservoir from the property. “Halfway to Tahoe?” You couldn’t see Folsom from that far away. And yes, this was quite some time ago, but it’s important for context.

      3. Agree its severally over priced but think of the realtors and their car payments! RLM!!! TBFB was in charge of values they would enter the uber workforce. Folsom and surrounding areas I do look at but its still ridiculously priced and im not a big fan of the 110+ degree sweltering heat. Im now in a good area, dont have the fb mortgage burden and plan to ride this bubble to the epic explosion its headed for them mabye ill get a deal like your buddy.

    3. It’s called chasing the market down.

      You’d have to have your head examined to pay more than $10k…. and even then, I’d recommend psychotherapy.

    4. I see a fire hydrant at the bottom of the driveway, would there be enough pressure at the top where a house would be built?

  15. Dumb question of the day: If a Trump victory depends on the stock market going up, and the stock market going up depends on nearterm stimulus, why would Pelosi and the Democrats sign off on pre-election stimulus now?

    1. why would Pelosi and the Democrats sign off on pre-election stimulus now?

      I was surprised the last time they did it. I suppose it’s probably a game of how to make it tank while making it look like they’re trying to keep it from tanking. So far I think Mr. T has won that fight…don’t ask me how. I thought it would crash last year at this time and stay down. I thought for sure in March it would stay down no matter what the Fed did. I always underestimate them.

      1. Mr. Market seems to be enduring a slow burn rather than rapid collapse.

        The outcome of stimulus talks over the next couple of days could change things quickly, though.

          1. How many days in “break even territory” adds up to a 50% off sale?

            “The S&P 500 (SPX, -1.63%) and blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -1.43%) are coming off a week that saw three straight days of declines. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP, -1.65%) posted its first four-day losing streak since September. All three major indexes were hanging around breakeven territory to start the new week.”

          2. How many days in “break even territory” adds up to a 50% off sale?

            The answer is given by solving this equation:

            (100% – 1.43%)^n = 50%

            n = ln(0.5)/ln(1-0.0143) = 48 days,
            or about 10 weeks, 2 1/2 months.

            It doesn’t take long for a little bit of daily crater to compound to a really big crater, thanks to the miracle of exponential decay (aka exponential growth in reverse).

    1. Vinnie Neilson
      Comments

      2 weeks ago

      How pissed do you think they will be when this PLANDEMIC is exsposed

      159

      1. That’s what I don’t get. Aren’t the unemployed eligible for SNAP/EBT? Or is there some catch-22 that keeps the recently unemployed off food stamps?

          1. The $600 is long gone. Few got the $300.

            As usual, I noticed most of the beggars drive a better car than I do.

      2. Oh, theres SNAP all right and lots use it but I think theres an assets calculation that cuts off a lot of people with “stuff” – like those cars they are waiting in. I see lots of young moms use SNAP. Nation of bastards, how well is that going to work out?

        State just issued $500 restaurant cards to the unemployed as well.

          1. There’s no room to social distance when standing in line. I’m sure it’s the usual curbside trunk-pop.

        2. State just issued $500 restaurant cards to the unemployed as well.

          Wouldn’t $500 in food stamps have a bigger bang for the buck?

          1. Is there anything at the grocery store that can match Taco Bell or In-n-Out for instantly edible calories per dollar?

          2. They’re trying to keep restaurants in business, of course.

            I remember the first time I bought something-or-other that had a rebate as a pre-paid Visa card and not a check or cash. Not only do you have to buy STUFF with it (even if it’s groceries) but the Visa gets their 3-5% merchant’s cut.

          3. Is there anything at the grocery store that can match Taco Bell or In-n-Out for instantly edible calories per dollar?

            A tub of cheap ice cream?

    3. I’d be packing up and moving if I couldn’t scrape up the cash for food.

      How much does it cost to ship a car to California? $1500?

      1. Yeah, thats about right. Had to look it up myself since its been many years. All my moving costs were covered by my employer and ran about 18K I think, just me and from CA. One of my bosses with a family of 5 plus dog in the midwest went over the 30K the company allocated for him. He said bringing the dog was crazy expensive as it had to be quarantined first in chicago for a while.

        The restaurant card is a sop to all those places that havent gone out of business yet. I went surfing on the north shore yesterday and each eatery still open had a few people but nothing compared to what it was pre corona. Many places are only open friday and saturday nights.

    1. 92127 has a weird mix of homes and demographics. The western section has relatively new McMansions on smallish lots with high prices, Mello-Roos and HOAs (some really steep!) whereas the eastern section has relatively older and smaller homes on decent-sized lots without all the extra fees and costs. Would you agree, PB?

        1. Another tiny Rust Belt town nestled within beautiful countryside, held together only by government cheese and Wal-mart. Soft rolling hills, green fields, streams and ponds, lots of open land for farming, ranching, towns…

          … but noh, people would rather pay millions of dollars to live in a firetrap covered with ugly brown bumps known as “hills.” Not enough rainfall to sustain a simple bush, much less a tree. All under constant threat of being swallowed by the earth. DaFuq.

          1. People are attracted to benefits and a social life with people like themselves far more than they are to options that look like a hard solitary life. Rural life sucks if you don’t have roots there…or at least common high-trust culture.

          2. Rural life sucks if you don’t have roots there…or at least common high-trust culture.

            Poor rural areas can be deceiving because of their natural beauty. The locals are always aware of newcomers, oftentimes ripping off everything they can from them. When your stuff is stolen, it’s usually the neighbors.

          3. Rural life sucks if you don’t have roots there…or at least common high-trust culture.

            When I bought a farm in PA we were accepted quite quickly by 99% of the neighbors. Joining the local church and sending the kids to school was helpful, as in the common culture you mentioned.

            As a Yankee deep in Cajun country, it took a little longer. If you’re not a total a-hole people everywhere are good natured.

          4. Our rural town, population ~6,500, is widely bifurcated economically, $30k/yr or $100k/yr. A very high percentage of eastern Washington is on disability or welfare. A college degree or a skilled union wage means you are living well, and mom can stay at home raising the kids. The steady influx of outsiders are recent retirees who sold a high priced metro area house, e.g., the equity locusts.

      2. Yep. And we’ve occupied the over
        30 years old working class housing of the eastern part since arriving here, places that have steadily sold on the $500k to $1 million range except for during the 2007-2009 crater period.

        Due to ongoing repair needs of older homes, it has worked out well for us to rent and let our landlords chip in maintenance and repair costs.

  19. The Commie progress and the Globalist Monopolies progress in taking over has been profound in the last 25 years. They control the Globalist fake news, and the corrupt Dem party.

    The Globalist are in bed with the Commies as a divide and conquer power play. Rich Globalist Monopolies want big government to pay for the looting they cause. They look at the Government as their pawn .
    The Commies also want control of Government , the education system, the Judicial system, etc.
    It’s all about taking government from the people .
    So you get these bizarre false narratives and talking points that are designed to stop the.people from taking back the Government.
    How dare Trump voters want their jobs back and be the victim of the wage and manufacturing monopoly by places like China.
    How dare whites object to the narrative that Whites are bad, America is bad, and fake racism claims justify a Commie takeover of the Gov.
    Than if Biden/Harris get their way by being elected than just more taxes and Gov and Globalist top down control and looting.
    All this plays into Commie China and their goals for World control and Commie overtake.
    The Resistance that is embraced in the Dem party with their fake news brainwashing want total power. It’s pretty bizarre how much they despise Trump and his voters who is half the Country.
    The people have to defeat these powers and take back the Government and the Country.

    Rich Globalist and Commie Gov controlling my life is the worse nightmare I can imagine. It has to be stopped.
    .

    1. Just this morning, I caught commies in my sock drawer, reordering my socks. I like my socks in a certain order, but they can’t leave me this one last freedom!

      1. When commies are in charge, you don’t have any socks, unless you blundered into the once a quarter sock line while walking home from your make work job,

        1. In Soviet Russia, family have only one sock. We take turns each day who wears it. On Christmas, we take sock to market, put potato in, carry home for great feasting! On other days, there is no potato, just boiled sock.

          1. You can joke. But my dad lived behind the iron curtain, and he said it was non stop scarcity. He risked life and limb to escape.

  20. “She isn’t the only one struggling: one Mill Valley high school teacher, who asked not to be identified, described contemplating sex work to fill the gaps left by her roughly $65,000 salary. Others switched to gig or low wage work. Experts worry that, on top of increased distress for the poor, the state’s already-shrinking middle class is taking a hard hit too.”

    Is this even legal in CA?

        2. If she’s really gifted then the teaser material is on Instagram with URLs to her Patreon channel where the pink is on full display to paying subscribers.

          1. Yeah, where they can “model” for a bunch of thirsty creepers but never have to touch them. Hey, it beats the street corner by a mile.

    1. The Financial Times
      Steer from crisis to recovery with the FT
      Pensions
      Pandemic will hit the pension prospects of billions, warns study
      New analysis of global pension systems says people face working longer or having less income in later life
      The pandemic has increased the need for governments to make ‘politically challenging’ reforms to keep systems sustainable, including raising the retirement age, says the global study
      © Nathan Laine/Bloomberg
      Josephine Cumbo
      10 hours ago

      The economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic has heightened retirement insecurity for billions of people around the world who now face working longer, or having less income in later life, according to a new analysis of global pension systems.

      Even before the crisis, private and public retirement systems were under strain from ageing populations and a low-interest rate environment, which has made it tougher to achieve the investment returns to pay pensions.

      Now the pandemic has exacerbated the problem and increased the need for governments to make “politically challenging” reforms to keep their systems sustainable, according to the study produced by Mercer, the actuarial firm, and others. The difficult reforms include raising the retirement age.

      “The economic recession caused by the global health crisis has led to reduced pension contributions, lower returns and higher government debt in most countries,” said Dr David Knox, senior partner at Mercer and lead author of the Global Pension Index study.

      “Inevitably this will impact future pensions, meaning some people will have to work longer, while others have to settle for a lower standard of living in retirement.”
      …

      1. Raising the retirement age = modifying the pension contract so that employers and governments who sponsor pension plans owe less to their covered employees. It’s nice of Mercee to make this recommendation so that plan sponsors don’t have to suggest it themselves.

      2. “Inevitably this will impact future pensions, meaning some people will have to work longer, while others have to settle for a lower standard of living in retirement.”

        Increasing technology in health care has contributed to the pension crisis with increased lifespans and costly medical care.

        1. That is part of the problem, but ZIRP forever is the proximate issue. Pension plans that used to budget for 7 percent annual in risk free returns now technically should probably count on something like zero in risk free returns. Doesn’t sound like much, until you realize that you can double your money in ten years with 7 percent annual increase.

          Consequently, pension liabilities are much higher than expected and the propect of being able to fund them in full is dubious.

          1. “Even before the crisis, private and public retirement systems were under strain from ageing populations…”

            Agreed, and I probably should have cited this snippet.

          2. I really think the non smoking campaigns worked so well that people are living years even a decades longer then was expected by the actuaries.

  22. Billionaire investor Howard Marks warns investors should expect the lowest returns in history and the market is vulnerable to ‘negative surprises’
    Emily Graffeo
    Oct. 13, 2020, 08:36 PM
    – In a memo released Tuesday, billionaire investor Howard Marks warned investors to expect the “lowest prospective returns in history.”
    – The Oaktree Capital Management co-founder said he’s been forecasting low returns for the last few years, but when the pandemic caused the Fed to move interest rates lower, expected returns lowered as well.
    – Marks listed an array of reasons interest rates lowered returns, ranging from their stimulative effect to the reduction in the risk-free rate.
    – “In my view, when uncertainty is high, asset prices should be low, creating high prospective returns that are compensatory,” Marks said. “But because the Fed has set rates so low, returns are just the opposite.”

    Billionaire investor Howard Marks warned investors in his latest memo to expect the lowest returns in history, and said that the market is vulnerable to “negative surprises.”

    “In my view, the low interest rates represent the dominant characteristic of the current financial environment, creating the dominant consideration for investors: the lowest prospective returns in history,” the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management wrote.

    In his memo titled “Coming Into Focus” released Tuesday, he said that for years he has been describing a vulnerable investment environment with the “lowest prospective returns ever,” pro-risk behavior from investors hunting for high returns, excessive asset prices, and an unusually high level of uncertainty.

    When the coronavirus pandemic prompted the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, a policy move Marks viewed as necessary, expected returns lowered even more, he said. Marks listed an array of reasons interest rates lowered returns, ranging from their stimulative effect to the reduction in the risk-free rate.

    “After a brief foray into bargain-land in March, we’re back to a low-return world. But since most investors haven’t reduced their required or targeted returns, they have to engage in elevated risk in order to pursue them,” Marks added.

    “In my view, when uncertainty is high, asset prices should be low, creating high prospective returns that are compensatory,” Marks said. “But because the Fed has set rates so low, returns are just the opposite. Thus the odds aren’t on the investor’s side, and the market is vulnerable to negative surprises.”
    …

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