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Long Term Will Catch Up To You, And That’s What Happened

Two reports from the Real Deal on Florida. “Ed Brown, former Patrón Spirits CEO, sold his oceanfront Hillsboro Beach mansion at a loss, for $16.5 million. Luxury spec home developer Mark Timothy built the home in 2017, the same year the Browns bought it for $20 million. The Browns aimed high with their initial listing, putting the property on the market in February 2019 for $27 million. In January, the asking price dropped to $26 million, and eventually fell to $23 million.”

“Miami-based Condo.com founder Richard Swerdlow and South Florida developer Bruce Goldstein are partnering to launch an online platform for bulk condo deals, The Real Deal has learned. They’re betting on the growing distress of condo markets across the country and developers’ desire to keep their offers confidential.”

“The veiled listings will also allow sellers to ‘avoid the appearance of distress to the financial markets,’ while offering discounts of up to 50 percent, said Goldstein. The discounts aren’t available to end users, and the goal is to appeal to bulk buyers. The website has about $100 million worth of listings and about $500 million in the pipeline in major U.S. markets, as well as in Latin America. Live listings include an 85-unit bulk condo in Miami and a 185-unit condo deal in Chicago, and the partners plan to list a deal in New York City.”

“Swerdlow and Goldstein expect distress to accelerate as the pandemic continues. Developers will need to sell in bulk to avoid having their property foreclosed on or having their loans enter special servicing. Once distressed pricing becomes public, retail sales can fall apart. ‘The last thing they want is the broker to have access — and blast it to the media,’ Swerdlow said.”

From Real Estate Weekly on New York. “Thousands of housing providers are struggling and some property owners are in dire straits, according to a survey of the members of the Community Housing Improvement Program (CHIP). Without help from the government, more than 15 percent percent of respondents say they do not think they’ll be able to make property tax or water and sewer payments in January. ‘We are in the eighth month of depressed rent collection and tens of thousands of people have fled the city leaving apartments vacant. While some owners can sustain this type of hit, more than one in ten cannot—and that is a crisis for affordable housing in New York,’ said Jay Martin, executive director of CHIP.”

“The reported vacancy rate among respondents ticked up to 12.81 percent from 12.55 percent in September. Survey respondents say their vacancy rate in February, before the pandemic, was 3.02 percent. The mass exodus from New York City has left thousands of units vacant and available for rent, but there are also units that have become vacant and need significant renovations before they can be rented. According to CHIP, in many instances, property owners do not have the capital or cannot secure funding from lenders to fix up these apartments and bring them back to market, especially if the units are rent regulated and have low legal rents.”

The Honolulu Civil Beat in Hawaii. “Last fall, Selina Lewis and her husband rented their 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom house in Kapolei to a family of four for $2,800 a month. The first sign of trouble came in April, when the rent was due but went unpaid. Lewis waited a few days, and then sent an email to ask what was happening. The tenants responded, saying that one spouse had their hours cut at their job, and the other was immunocompromised and couldn’t work. They said they could pay part of the rent later in the month.”

“The rent was late again in May and June. The rent checks stopped in mid-July, and so did the communication from the tenants. Meanwhile, the bills were piling up for Lewis and her husband. They have the monthly mortgage on both the house they live in and their rental house. In the middle September, the Lewises saw their tenants moving out.”

“When she did enter the property, she found what every landlord dreads. The windows in the house had been left open and the wind and rain had come in, staining the carpet and damaging the blinds. The tenant had turned off the electricity but left food rotting inside the fridge. The house reeked of cat pee, though the lease specified ‘no pets.’ It looked like someone had started a fire in the toilet. The back yard was littered with beer bottles.”

“Meanwhile, her daughter has looked up the former tenants on social media. They recently bought a food truck.”

From Community Impact on Texas. “The Greater Houston region entered the last quarter of 2020 with office vacancies continuing to rise, although the region has been producing more commercial spaces, especially in the industrial sector, than are currently needed, said Patrick Jankowski, the senior vice president of research with the Greater Houston Partnership.”

“‘Whenever the economy enters a recession there is always a drop off in leasing activity, and office, industrial and retail space,’ Jankowski said. ‘The problem is we entered this downturn where we already had a glut in office and a development glut and warehouse/industrial that is going to make things worse than it would have been otherwise.'”

“Another sector facing a glut in the Houston region is multifamily housing, he said. ‘We are overbuilding in multifamily,’ Jankowski said. ‘Over a two-year period, we’ll add close to 40,000 units to the market, and that’s about 40,000 more than we need.’ Jankowski said a typical rule of thumb is every six jobs created in Houston absorb about one apartment unit. ‘So you can see that to absorb what we just built we need to create over 200,000 jobs,’ he said. ‘And in this pandemic we are still down over 200,000 jobs.'”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “If you’re looking for a deal on an apartment rental, go to San Francisco. The city was No. 1 in September among U.S. cities for renters to find the best deals, according to Zumper. San Francisco’s rent plummeted 20% year-over-year, and 5% of rental listings offered move-in specials, according to the analysis. Two other Bay Area cities made the top 10 list: Oakland, at No. 6, and San Jose, at No. 7.”

“‘San Francisco, San Jose and Oakland have consistently been in the top 10 most expensive markets, so their rent prices had a lot of room to fall,’ said Zumper spokesperson Crystal Chen. ‘All three of their respective year-over-year rent price decreases were some of the largest in the nation.’ Oakland saw a 14% drop in rent in September compared to last year, with 10% of listings offerings concessions. San Jose rents dropped 9% year-over-year, and 14% of listings offered concessions, which Chen said is most likely tied to new construction in the Silicon Valley city.”

“‘As people continue to migrate out of the pricey Bay Area cities to ride out the rest of the pandemic somewhere with more space and affordability, property owners are eagerly trying to fill vacancies, especially ahead of the holidays,’ Chen said. ‘So now the Bay Area is seeing deals like never before.'”

The Motley Fool on California. “San Francisco has been the city at the heart of the tech movement for many years. This has led to rising rents on both the residential and commercial sides, but the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically shifted that picture. According to data from CoStar Group, San Francisco office rents have dropped by 4% from March to September of this year, and new lease deals were down 81% year over year.”

“Says Nima Wedlake, principal at Thomvest Ventures, a venture fund based in San Francisco: ‘More than 3 million square feet of sublease inventory is available as of August, up from about 300,000 square feet in March. This glut of sublease inventory will certainly lead to a drop in rental rates, which had reached an all-time high prior to the pandemic. I expect that we’ll experience a prolonged period of price declines in the office market.'”

“San Francisco’s residential market is taking a hit as well, especially when it comes to rentals. Says Chris Lim, head of brand growth at @properties: ‘With the advent of the global pandemic, we’ve seen a mass migration out of San Francisco into surrounding areas like Napa and Truckee. The hardest-hit areas have been SOMA and South Beach — where there are mostly high-rise, loft, and condominium communities.'”

“You probably know that real estate has long been the playground for the rich and well connected. But in 2020 the barriers have come crashing down – and now it’s possible to build REAL wealth through real estate at a fraction of what it used to cost.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “One of the most complicated measures on California’s ballot this November is Proposition 19, which gives new property tax breaks to older homeowners, increases property taxes for those inheriting their parents’ properties and tacks on some tax relief for those affected by wildfires.”

“The measure is the product of more than two years of work by the California Assn. of Realtors to give a larger tax incentive to homeowners 55 and older to move into new homes. The Realtors also were behind Proposition 5, a failed 2018 initiative that would have done the same thing. But Proposition 19 adds many other elements — notably a tax increase for the heirs of some homeowners — in an effort to make it more fiscally sound and palatable to voters.”

“Also, the real estate industry stands to benefit from the increase in home sales that is expected as a result of the measure. State and national Realtor groups are funding the Proposition 19 campaign, contributing more than $37 million so far to secure its passage. Jeanne Radsick, president of the Realtors group, said that protecting Realtors’ interests was not a driving force behind the push for Proposition 19.”

“‘It is not about making money for the Realtors, for crying out loud,’ she said. ‘It’s about tax fairness for people who need help.'”

From Patch Newton in Massachusetts. “This 11,000 square foot estate that went on the market last year for a cool $7.9 million is still one of the most expensive homes in the Garden City, though the seller has knocked about $1.4 million off the listing price.”

From Bisnow. “The coronavirus pandemic has hampered most co-living companies, Starcity CEO Jon Dishotsky said, but the pain has so far been much worse for some than others. Among the most severely impacted operators is HubHaus, which announced last month that it will shutter permanently. The Los Altos-based company came to manage over 1,000 bedrooms, many of which were in the Bay Area, but it told tenants and homeowners in September it couldn’t pay October rent and was shutting down, multiple outlets reported.”

“It has taken ‘a lot more hand-holding for potential new members,’ but he said rents have started to rebound from 10% to 15% year-over-year reductions in each of its markets except San Francisco, which continues to see slackened demand but an occupancy rate of 92%. Plummeting rents in San Francisco as a whole have also been most pronounced for smaller units. Studio rents last month were down 31% year-over-year, according to Realtor, which has one-bedrooms and two-bedrooms in the city down 24.2% and 21.3%, respectively.”

“Bungalow, another Bay Area-based co-housing company, warned some of its landlords in September it didn’t intend to pay October rent, The Information reported last month. Bungalow CEO Andrew Collins said in a statement to Bisnow that the company is in a ‘meaningfully better position than HubHaus’ but still looking to renegotiate most of its leases.”

“‘We have seen substantial declines in the residential real estate market in our major cities: in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC, rents are down between 15% and 25% versus their peak last year,’ Collins said. ‘As a result, we are asking a majority of homeowners to reformat our leases in a way that enables us to get through these difficult times together and provides additional upside for landlords once the markets rebound.'”

“Dishotsky, who said he thinks co-living has a long-term place as an affordable option for workers in urban cores, said he is less sure about the stability of the master-lease model compared with the ownership one. Both kinds have raised tens of millions in venture capital. ‘You can certainly scale fast and create a quick pop in evaluation in the good times, but long term that will catch up to you,’ he said. ‘And I think that that’s, largely speaking, what happened.'”

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This Post Has 228 Comments

    1. “Dishotsky, who said he thinks co-living has a long-term place as an affordable option for workers in urban cores.”

      In Hong Kong, people rent individual pods stacked up from floor to ceiling.

      In SF and NYC, on the other hand, perhaps some of those co-living tenants will soon be able to afford their own apartment.

      1. Short version: work at home happened.

        And the whole wfh thing is a short, temporary phenomenon. People are living in lalaland if they think they will continue to collect full pay while never going back to the office, and gallivanting around the country in their new RVs on a whim. I’m not singling out Carl, I’m talking about the millions of others who are still doing it.

        Lots and lots of people made idiotic long-term decisions resulting in massive long-term debt based upon a short-term phenomenon.

        1. right if you dont have to pay Metro North or the LIRR $300-600 amonth to commute to nyc that’s a pretty nice backhanded pay raise

        2. And the whole wfh thing is a short, temporary phenomenon. People are living in lalaland if they think they will continue to collect full pay while never going back to the office, and gallivanting around the country in their new RVs on a whim. I’m not singling out Carl, I’m talking about the millions of others who are still doing it.

          No problem. I get what you’re saying…but I’m not as sure as you are that we’re going back to 2019-“normal” soon. And I think the full pay issue depends on productivity. Lots of bosses want 100% of their employees time but there are plenty who don’t care what you do if you get the job done. Supply and demand will control pay much more than what other things people might be doing while they are working.

          2. The axman cometh for many.

            Could be. But that’s always true in tech. The real question is how hard it is to find the next gig? The mobile may have an advantage if there are any gigs to be had.

          3. And I think the full pay issue depends on productivity.

            Add one more thing to that. For the companies that are able to get full or near full productivity out of their employees from home, they are probably now looking at ‘how much office space do we really need?’

            If they’re renting entire floors of some downtown office tower at class A rates, but doing the math and seeing that they could get by with just a 2000 sq ft space, plus a bump in their data center?

            Combine the savings on facilities, with the cost of fewer company and team events, the amenities they used to offer to ‘entice the best’, no commuting reimbursements, and possible discounts on pay for workers who choose to stay but move out of the area?

            That shaving of costs and bottom line improvement might be too tempting to ignore.

            And that may not be the end of it.

            Just spitballing here, but when it comes times to renew the group health policies offered to employees at the end of the year, the big insurers, which I’m sure are smarting from the 2020 covid surprise, may be comparing the possibility of a mass infection outbreak between a company with everyone working from home and the same company with everyone crammed into an open office floorplan on the 17th floor of a hermetically sealed office tower… which one will they assign more risk (and risk premiums) to?

          4. comparing the possibility of a mass infection outbreak between a company with everyone working from home and the same company with everyone crammed into an open office floorplan on the 17th floor of a hermetically sealed office tower

            Hadn’t thought of that. I like it.

          5. Digging this thread! Rip i personally see exactly what you said about the nomad RV purchasing techies thinking they can just go road trip and keep their jobs. An engineer that i work with bought (got a loan) on a 170k mercedes self contained van and went off cross country. As much as i would love to do that, i have a family im the sole provider for so thats out of my comfort zone. Mgspiffy, you are on to something! I do agree that in many wfh capable industries we see the same level of productivity (if not more) and why would any employer want to pay rent, utilites, taxes, insurance, etc to give an employee a place to sit and do their work when they subtract that cost and let them do it from home. Carl, your in it so you know and cudoos to you for doing the road trip, many are jealous! if you know your work well and “produce” you will likely be fine. My take all from all this wfh is that i think it will stick and RE especially CRE will cr8r. CRE is gone IMO!

          6. All of this wfh for high paid computer key pushers is completely dependent upon the most massive stock bubble in history. Once all those ridiculous valuations get blown up and the companies fold, look for all of those cushy wfh gigs to do the same.

          7. all this wfh is that i think it will stick

            Keep in mind that we didn’t invent WFH in 2020. My whole department went WFH in 2001. They didn’t care where I lived as long as I was able to show up for an occasional face to face, and get my work done. Still had travel to customer’s site as before.

            Nothing like getting started at 6AM!

          10. All of this wfh for high paid computer key pushers is completely dependent upon the most massive stock bubble in history.

            I think that’s true for this generation’s pets.com, etc. The effects on me will be downstream…I actually make stuff for a living and so for me it depends on whether the product I make is mostly bubble sales or mostly due to “real” demand. As of right now data centers need even more storage than ever…so it seems safe. But if the bubble popping gets to the point where demand for storage actually goes down, or nobody needs bigger/faster drives and we can just keep making the old model forever, then yeah, I’m in trouble. It definitely could get that bad, but if it does I think we all have even bigger problems and Kunstler starts looking like a genius.

          11. “As much as i would love to do that, i have a family im the sole provider for so thats out of my comfort zone.”

            I’m intimately familiar with that predicament.

          12. @BubblevilleCa

            An engineer that i work with bought (got a loan) on a 170k mercedes self contained van and went off cross country. As much as i would love to do that, i have a family im the sole provider for so thats out of my comfort zone.

            I totally get the sole provider bit, been there got the divorce decree to show for it. How do you manage on a single income with California’s insane cost of living and taxes?

            As for RV’s, was it by any chance a Leisure Travel Van model? Fully loaded, a new LTV would be about that much ($170k). That’s about as big (24-25 ft) as you see on a Mercedes Sprinter chassis.

            I wouldn’t mind a Unity FX or Unity Murphy Bed model for some long term running around myself, but that’ll have to wait a couple more years at least.

          13. sole provider

            IIRC, your wife finished medical school recently. Has COVID saddled her with childcare responsibilities?

          14. @MGSpiffy, colleague bought a winnibego revel model. CA taxes / expenses are brutal but i have been somewhat smart with money since my early 20’s and have a descent income that i am able to set part aside each month to add to my savings / kids future. Not to say that cant disappear but i think my cushion is thick enough we would survive for good time. My parents raised me well in that respect 😉

            @Redpilled Redhead

            “IIRC, your wife finished medical school recently. Has COVID saddled her with childcare responsibilities?” most definitely has! she is now a mandatory home school teacher for our kinder and 3rd grade boys. I truly feel bad for her and express gratitude for her being the one dealing with it, from the little i get to experience, its hell! She did always say she rather raise our children instead of work a 9-5 or what ever hour job, she got it!

          15. I’m surviving by renting from a good landlord. Maybe we’ll move, but my job is pretty secure, and is not very portable (not WFH), so that makes moving difficult.

            Wife buys into the RE Kool-Aid, but so far have got her to see reason (realtor friend claims “Bay Area real estate won’t go down”).

            For MGSpiffy & CM, I saw a cute removable camper mod for the Honda Element on Craigslist. Wouldn’t work for living (no shower), but might be good for camping.

        3. The other side of the coin, like Carl points out below, is that we aren’t going back to how it was pre Covid. Some jobs will, sure, but many will not. A lot of people are making permanent adjustments to where / how they work.

          Our office lease is up 10/2021, we won’t be exercising our option.

          I spoke to a litigator the other day whose staff went to solely WFH, then in July they started staggering staff/ days. Productivity was fine when it was solely WFH, but fell when they started staggering days. So now they’re back to just WFH and come in if you want / need to.

          1. Productivity was fine when it was solely WFH, but fell when they started staggering days.

            Right. I call BS. The measurement of productivity is flawed. Just look at how many wfh types are posting on blogs like this instead of working. There are way too computer jobs in this country. Lots of dead wood to be thinned out.

          2. My employer is quite pleased with what we get done, so much so that there are no plans yet to bring people back into the office.

          3. Just look at how many wfh types are posting on blogs like this instead of working.

            I’ve been posting here from work for about 15 years now. Most people can’t write code 8 hours a day. Watch any software guy all day and pretty much all of them have their preferred way of taking mental breaks. Before the internet got big it was just walking around with a coffee cup annoying your coworkers…

            But I agree it’s weird that productivity would go down on a staggered schedule.

          4. I’ve been posting here from work for about 15 years now. Most people can’t write code 8 hours a day. Watch any software guy all day and pretty much all of them have their preferred way of taking mental breaks.

            Yet contractors and construction workers can bend, lift, carry and hammer all day long. You’re kidding, right?

          5. Yet contractors and construction workers can bend, lift, carry and hammer all day long. You’re kidding, right?

            Not kidding. I was in the military once upon a time. Most days I’m happy to be in front of a computer. But there are days I would much rather be digging a ditch if I could make the same money. Sometimes “Office Space” is a documentary.

          6. all day long

            As a much younger lad I made my living splitting firewood. I worked 10 hour days. I took breaks. The old farmer told me to, said that in the end I’d get more work done and make fewer mistakes. Even with breaks, I usually split a full cord (400 pieces) in just over two hours. All day long.

            If you concentrate on something eventually you will get foggy, and slow down and make mistakes just as well.

          7. Yet contractors and construction workers can bend, lift, carry and hammer all day long. You’re kidding, right?

            Coding isn’t a repetitive task. Sure, it looks like you’re just tapping on a keyboard. That’s the easy part. The hard part is problem solving, especially trying to understand a 10+ year old chunk of code, thousands of lines long, with no documentation on what exactly it’s supposed to do. Change it to add new functionality and you may inadvertently break something else.

          8. Coding isn’t a repetitive task.

            Neither is a hip roof with a square-cut fascia and compound angle cuts.

          9. Neither is a hip roof …

            When I watch roofers at work, what they do seems extremely repetitive. And if they do a sloppy job, it’ll probably still work fine. Do a poor job of coding and you’ll get bugs, or worse, core dumps. In some cases it can cost lives (737 MAX)

            Good coders aren’t paid six figure salaries because their bosses are clueless, it’s because good coders are very hard to find. There are a lot of bad coders, and they usually have short careers. The same can said of electrical, mechanical and chemical engineers. It might look like they’re just tapping on keyboards, but they are solving difficult problems.

          11. You’re overvaluing yourself.

            You tell me why coders are paid much more than roofers, or guys who work in warehouses, etc. And by the way, most coders don’t work for Facebook, Google, Apple or Microsoft. Most work at small companies that aren’t traded on the stock market.

          12. You tell me why coders are paid much more than roofers, or guys who work in warehouses, etc.

            I don’t think coders make more than general contractors. You might be mistaken there.

          15. Coder salaries
            Average base pay: $33,716

            That category is for people who do medical transcription. It’s not software work.

          16. That category is for people who do medical transcription. It’s not software work.

            Then post the salary for your preferred coder.

          18. If you’re going to choose “senior software engineer” then I’ll go ahead and choose “construction project manager” or something. Your run of the mill coder is not averaging $120,000.

            My cousin, as a software engineer, is pulling in close to $200k. Same as his wife. He has admitted to me many times over the year that he thinks he’s been overpaid for what he does. But their jobs are on borrowed time. They’ve been training their replacements for more than 10 years. New hires will never achieve their pay rate. He doesn’t care, he could retire tomorrow. But his kids don’t have the same opportunities.

          19. New hires will never achieve their pay rate

            Actually, we pay newbies straight out of school about $120K. $200K isn’t a big deal in the Bay Area. In Topeka, sure, they’ll never make 200K.

          20. Actually, we pay newbies straight out of school about $120K. $200K isn’t a big deal in the Bay Area. In Topeka, sure, they’ll never make 200K.

            He’s not in the Bay Area. Neither are you.

          21. If you’re going to choose “senior software engineer” then I’ll go ahead and choose “construction project manager” or something. Your run of the mill coder is not averaging $120,000.

            Everybody has a different idea of what “run of the mill coder” is. I was just trying to find something consistent with what I see. Take away the “senior” and it shows 90+k. Anybody with an engineering degree who writes or tests software for a real product for a company with a headquarters in the bay area makes decent money. You may be right that it can’t last, but I’m saying it will last as long as people keep buying those products…because that’s the kind of people it takes to make those products and there isn’t an endless supply of them even with H1B help. The work is complicated and you need to take some breaks. My break is here.

            So in my case data centers would need to stop buying SSDs for my world to come crashing down. I have no idea what the odds of that are, but I know it would mean many industries were crashing.

          22. He’s not in the Bay Area. Neither are you.

            I know of people at Big Red who make 200K out here. Yeah, it’s less common than in the Bay Area. And even here we start new grads around six figures. And Big Red isn’t some fly by night profitless unicorn. $10B profit, year after year.

            As I said, if your friend’s employer thought he was overpaid, that would be corrected, regardless of where he is.

          23. I know of people at Big Red who make 200K out here.

            Sure. And I know contractors pulling in over $1M per year.

          24. Anybody with an engineering degree who writes or tests software for a real product for a company with a headquarters in the bay area makes decent money.

            Absolutely. But I wasn’t under the impression that you needed an engineering degree to be a coder.

          25. Absolutely. But I wasn’t under the impression that you needed an engineering degree to be a coder.

            I think we each have our own definition based on the shorthand we use with the people we know. I honestly forget that to some people a coder is the guy writing mobile app games or website forms. To me it’s an engineer who writes software as needed to make designs for real hardware that can be sold for real money work. But yeah, if I think about it, my definition is only one of many. Anyway, my original point is just that yes some people post here from work, but I don’t think there is anything weird or lazy about that.

          26. I know several control systems engineers who design automation of critical infrastructure via scada systems. While they’re not rich, they can easily support their “stay at home mom” families in the Seattle metro area, which few can honestly afford these days. They also enjoy stock options, company cars and other perks, but they also put in the hours, must travel, etc., so it’s a trade-off.

      1. There is no shortage. There’s a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures in conjunction with loan forbearance. This is an artificial anomaly.

    4. “All of this wfh for high paid computer key pushers is completely dependent upon the most massive stock bubble in history” agreed but until it pops many will enjoy the ride. Nov 4 will be a big decision maker on how long this lasts. I personally would like to see it end.

      1. There’s also the factor that hot jobs eventually become commoditized. I can remember when Oracle DBA’s and network sys admins were hot commodities. Now, it’s deep learning and AI. Oh well, at least the self-driving car hype is receding.

  2. ‘while offering discounts of up to 50 percent….about $100 million worth of listings and about $500 million in the pipeline in major U.S. markets, as well as in Latin America. Live listings include an 85-unit bulk condo in Miami and a 185-unit condo deal in Chicago, and the partners plan to list a deal in New York City’

    50%? Why that sounds like some whopping price discovery, and widespread at that!

    ‘Once distressed pricing becomes public, retail sales can fall apart. ‘The last thing they want is the broker to have access — and blast it to the media’

    It just became public Dick. Well actually everybody knows the condo market has been sinking like a turd in a well.

    1. Finally, action and fire sales! Thank you Ben. I was weary of the endless rollover and refi. While I would much rather that end-users get first dibs at 50% off housing, perhaps bulk sales are the best option for condo buildings.

      1. The only way bulk buyers can unload these airboxes is to undercut previous buyers, which means walk-aways. And there will likely be loan collapse, Toronto style.

        1. “loan collapse”

          Any thoughts on at what point the Fed will tee up its next round of bailouts specifically targeted at real estate?

          And will they use press releases and the cooperation of Congress again, as they did in Fall 2008, or will they try to keep bailout measures out of the political limelight next time, to avoid media blowback?

  3. ‘The problem is we entered this downturn where we already had a glut in office and a development glut and warehouse/industrial…Another sector facing a glut in the Houston region is multifamily housing’

    that’s a lot a gluts Pat.

    ‘Over a two-year period, we’ll add close to 40,000 units to the market, and that’s about 40,000 more than we need….So you can see that to absorb what we just built we need to create over 200,000 jobs,’ he said. ‘And in this pandemic we are still down over 200,000 jobs’

    Yer going the wrong way Pat. He says it’ll take 5 years. Can these guys float 40,000 brand new apartments for 5 years? No, yer fooked!

    1. Ben, are there any stats on new apartment/MFH starts / projects since the second half of this year yet? I would have to think the pipline has dried and shriveled up.

  4. ‘sold his oceanfront Hillsboro Beach mansion at a loss, for $16.5 million….in 2017, the same year the Browns bought it for $20 million’

    Well it was cheaper than renting Ed.

  5. ‘in 2020 the barriers have come crashing down – and now it’s possible to build REAL wealth through real estate at a fraction of what it used to cost’

    A fraction, in California?

    ‘It is not about making money for the Realtors, for crying out loud’

    Yes it is Jeanne. Get off yer knees and stop begging, it’s pathetic.

    1. Yes it is Jeanne. Get off yer knees and stop begging, it’s pathetic.

      Her Lexus’s lease isn’t going to pay itself.

    2. Anyone interested in building wealth is leaving California as fast as they can. LA native and popular YouTuber Graham Stephan (2.1+ million subs) just revealed that he’s moving to Vegas. Quite a shock.

      1. Jeremiah Babe says he is leaving Palm Desert, CA for Arizona. My cursory guess is that he is in survival mode, not building wealth.

      2. Let’s see… Techy workers and entrepreneurs .. where would they get smart people if they left Cali?

        Besides ‘anywhere’ for remote staff, Austin and Seattle are nice tech hotspots.. what do they have that California doesn’t? No state income tax? cheaper housing? lower taxes and regulation? all of the above?

        1. Let’s see… Techy workers and entrepreneurs .. where would they get smart people if they left Cali?”

          Vietnam Singapore etc

      3. “Anyone intere$ted in building wealth is leaving California as fast as they can.”

        Awe.pshaw … Eye’m knot movin’ … but eye’m developing a $lither of my Nevada aggregate rock & perlite mine land into a tentrr & Hip.Camp hang out $pot. Fun.

        How to turn perlite & H2O into 💰!

    3. “…Jeanne Radsick, president of the Realtors group

      “‘It is not about making money for the Realtors, for crying out loud,’ she said. ‘It’s about tax fairness for people who need help….”

      A lot has been written on HBB about lying realtors. But this one takes the cake. How blatant can Jeanne Radsick be, short of taking out a full page in the LA times shouting “The REIConplex wants to steal your money”

  6. Long time readers of this blog will love this video.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RX1uzbAOnXc

    Next implication: one reason NYC residents pay so much in tax is not to pay for services, or even help the poor. It is costs shifted from the present (now the past) to the future (now the present).

    Why should people be willing to live here and pay for what they do not get? Either bankruptcy will wipe munis and pensions away, the way inflation did in the 1970s.

    https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2020/09/25/how-did-new-york-city-government-recover-from-the-1970s-fiscal-crisis/

    And/or the price of real estate will have to fall enough to fully offset any collective liabilities people are stuck with.

    1. “Long time readers of this blog will love this video.”

      “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RX1uzbAOnXc”

      You are correct, that is a good video. Thanks.

      1. “…that is a good video.”

        Agreed. And yes, CRE in NYC might not ever recover its lofty high prices when the covid19 crisis is behind us. The big question here are those pension funds, e.g., are their beneficiaries going to go draw a short straw?

    2. Like some “Religiou$.Cult$”, developing Mega.Church’$ facilitie$ i$ quite a lucrative exploitation of America!

      Even thee.🍊jesus i$ a “True.Manipulator.Believer” of such chicanerie$

      Donate development right$!:

      In a con$ervation ea$ement, a property owner donate$ development right$ on a piece of land to a public agency or qualified charity, usually a land con$ervancy. The donor retain$ owner$hip of the land but contributes its “development value” in perpetuity. This is supposed to ensure that the land is preserved for the general public or to protect wildlife.

      In one example, Trump donated the development rights to land surrounding his man$ion in Westchester County, N.Y., to a land conservancy. This prohibited future development on the property, netting Trump a $21.1 million charitable tax benefit.

      According to the report on Trump’s tax returns, $119.3 million of his $130 million in charitable deductions took the form of conservation easements such as these. That’s not money Trump spent feeding the hungry or housing the homeless. Instead, it created buffer zone$ around his private property, increa$ing both its value and his own privacy.

      Outside the Box:

      Opinion: Donald Trump’s abu$e of the con$ervation ea$ement tax loophole show$ how the tax code favor$ the ultrariche$

      MarketWatch / First Published: Oct. 21, 2020 / By Bob Lord and Chuck Collins

      How to ‘donate’ land to a charity, but keep it for your own exclu$ive u$e

      1. As long as housing prices continue cratering, all is well.

        God Bless President Donald J. Trump and God Bless America!

        1. “Do you ever focu$ on anything el$e?”

          Just returned from roaming Utah’s Grand.Escalante.Staircase Red.Rock slot canyons for x3 weeks. (No wifi, 😱 … sad! 😜)

          Self.isolation from still.spreading thee.deeth.👾, (deeths were @ 195,000 when eye departed 9/30, currently @ 225,000 & going 👆👆👆10/21, with winter cold keeping folks clumped together inside.) eye did knot see it anywheres amongst the narrow 500′ stone walls capped with blue skies, scattered with cottonball clouds, bright sunshine & limegreen/yellow Cottonwood trees. The few hikers roaming ’bouts mostly put on masks when passing one on a trail.

          Do you post everyday to get 🍊.Jesus apo$tle.point$? 👏

        2. Oh, geez, here we go again with the TDS

          You haven’t blocked his inane posts yet? The Joshua Tree Extension is your friend.

          1. You block him because you can’t handle the heat…You can “dish it” but can’t “take it”….Sad…

          3. Howdy scdave! (Hope all is well with you & yearns 🙏) …

            Love to wrassle with the Haskell’$/Eddies, they’re sooooooo $elf.$erious! Their $aviour, thee.🍊.Jesus = 🙈🙉🙊

            ✌ 🍷

          4. I’ll be glad to “take it” from any poster who writes in decent English and forms his own thoughts, instead of cutting and pasting nonsense.

            Yeah whatever, the manipulation is legal. None of the candidates are perfect. Dems have been trying to pile on the Trump crimes for years. They think if only they piled on ONE more bad story, suddenly the #walkaways would “woke up” and vote for Biden.

            But Trump’s supporters knew all of this full well as far back as 2015, and they probably figured there’d be a lot more coming. But they don’t care. They want a President that will keep out illegal immigrants, stop the wars, not give away the store to poor folks who don’t even try to make a living, and not cry ism every darn minute. If that means electing a guy who “lied” 26,000 times or paid $750 in taxes or manipulated some land deals legally, so be it.

            Why can’t the Dems figure this out?

          5. who “lied” 26,000 times

            AFAICT, not parroting The Narrative makes someone a liar irrespective of the truth.

          6. “Why can’t the Dems figure this out?”

            you have an “aged” memory lap$e of the year: 2018 … $ad

            🙊🙉🙈

          7. “The Narrative makes someone a liar irrespective of the truth.”

            “You.know.nothing!” … Hogan’s Hero’$ Shultz. from $an.die.go

          8. “Dems have been trying to pile on the Trump crime$ for year$.”

            =

            “O’bammy, he’s a rigger.from.Kenya!”

            Eye’m a 🚽❄🐖 for repubican.truthi$m’$!!!! & approves of this 💩 me$$age!

          9. 2018 was a Dem victory because there were no pesky third parties like Jill Stein to split the ticket, and no Bernie Sanders to stay home and protest not-vote for. And Trump hatred was running hot.

            I am skeptical whether Trump hatred is as great as it was in 2018. Oh yes, any given person who hated Trump then hates him more now. But that same person still has only one vote. So I suppose the 6.4 trillion dollar is, has the number of people who hate Trump increased over time? I don’t really know. Anecdotally, it looks like more people have red-pilled than blue-pilled, at least since 2018. Polls are saying otherwise.

            I’m most interested in the number of people who simply don’t vote at all. Biden does not appear to be worth holding one’s nose for, and I suspect there is a myriad of moderate Dems who don’t want to be called ist for years on end either. Low turnout will favor Trump.

          10. I’ll be glad to “take it” from any poster who writes in decent English and forms his own thoughts, instead of cutting and pasting nonsense.

            Which is a perfectly good reason to Joshua Tree someone.

  8. I came across this:

    https://www.livabl.com/2020/10/la-city-council-llc-discolsure-real-estate.html

    ‘On Tuesday afternoon, the Los Angeles City Council voted unanimously to approve a motion requiring the disclosure of ownership for limited liability companies (LLCs) that purchase residential real estate. The measure was put forth by councilmembers Mike Bonin and Marqueece Harris-Dawson.’

    ‘Bonin underscored the need to “curb [the] predatory forces that contribute to eviction, gentrification, and loss of affordable housing.” He cited the mass acquisition of foreclosed properties by LLCs in the wake of the 2008 housing crisis, noting that “we are seeing the same thing happening now.”

    There never was a “mass acquisition of foreclosed properties”. They have to be sold one by one, by law. The bulk deals were for the paper, and as I’ve pointed out many times, these were terrible deals which is why almost no one participated.

    This is another example of grandstanding on a myth with the ol’ vampire squid routine.

    1. “The bulk deals were for the paper, and as I’ve pointed out many times, these were terrible deals which is why almost no one participated.”

      Weren’t these terrible deals intended to keep “accessed values” from falling?

  9. Re-post from the end of the last thread:

    “As security experts warn that the U.S. presidential election could spark renewed civil unrest, those stores remain clad in plywood as retailers seek to keep property and employees safe in the event street violence flares anew.

    Retailers are on edge after raiders earlier this year smashed windows, stole merchandise and, at times, set stores ablaze in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Portland and other U.S. cities – often under the cover of peaceful Black Lives Matter demonstrations that were rekindled by the May 25 police killing of George Floyd, a Black man.

    Foot Locker FL.N in its quarterly report on Aug. 21, said it racked up $18 million in costs from “recent social unrest.” Looters target sneaker sellers like Foot Locker because their products are easy to carry away and turn into cash.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-retail-security-focus/u-s-retailers-secure-stores-as-worries-about-election-unrest-mount-idUSKBN27618Z

    I’ve been traveling around the state this summer and have noticed that small rural towns don’t seem to have these problems. Why is that?

    1. Much like there weren’t near enough police (Even if the Leftist Mayors had not told them to stand down) to stop all the BLM/Antifa peaceful brick throwing, Looting, burning, assaulting, “No Justice No Peace” mobs marching through suburban neighborhoods at 2 AM or eating the food and guzzling the drinks of people at outdoor restaurants while telling them they are racist and must pay reparations in and around U.S. cities like Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Portland.

      There aren’t near enough paid BLM/Antifa thugs to riot in even a tiny fraction of the small rural towns in this country.

      PS

      Although I could have chosen from many others I decided on Rochester as a bonus city.

      BLM “Protesters” Harass Diners At A Restaurant

      https://youtu.be/Tqp8VVm3Azk?t=13

      1. Much like there weren’t near enough police

        That’s what the National Guard is for. But Dem governors are happy to fiddle while their states burn.

      1. I suspect solid rule of law requires a high trust society. The left cynically accuses the right of racism when the right longs for days past…but I think mostly they long for the high trust of a northern European based monoculture…not the monoculture itself.

          1. You’ll never “fit-in” if you arrive in a shiny 4Runner with custom wheels; better to be an economic chameleon. If the town is too small forget it because there’s likely just one church that you [must] tithe, and besides, you’ll never have the same grandfather.

          2. You’ll never “fit-in” if you arrive in a shiny 4Runner with custom wheels; better to be an economic chameleon.

            Exactly. And if it’s a town smaller than 50,000, it’s going to be very difficult to ever fit in.

          3. For me, less than 2,500-population is too small, and over 25,000-population is too large. Ideally, it’s nice to live in a 12,000-population town about 90-minutes from a 1-million plus metro.

          4. You get really poor medical care and other services in such small towns. Many don’t even have a proper hospital.

          5. I was going to add that my ideal is a town of around 50,000 less than 100 miles from a metro of at least 500,000.

          6. You’ll never “fit-in” if you arrive in a shiny 4Runner with custom wheels;

            True, it means you’ve screwed up already not owning a well used domestic. Which means the local wannabes who wouldn’t mind living a little closer to the city will like you but everybody else will hate you more. You don’t have to go to the church and you don’t have to have the same grandfather, although all those things help. But you must not show off *anything* the average guy there will never have and you must be friendly and ready to help anybody anywhere anytime you see a need.

          7. We’re a 3-hr drive to the Seattle-Tacoma metro, which is too far for emergencies, but I’m satisfied with our stability and friendly town. We’ll be okay as long as the U.S. government doesn’t collapse.

  10. ‘Collins said in a statement to Bisnow that the company is in a ‘meaningfully better position than HubHaus’ but still looking to renegotiate most of its leases…‘We have seen substantial declines in the residential real estate market in our major cities’

    Wa? That sounds like price discovery?

    ‘As a result, we are asking a majority of homeowners to reformat our leases in a way that enables us to get through these difficult times together and provides additional upside for landlords once the markets rebound’

    Translation: take yer a$$-pounding cuz we’re all in this together.

  12. Are you concerned that the U.S. stock market may currently be in one of the largest bubbles in the history of the U.S. stock market back to colonial days?

    2. $tephan Munchin & thee.🍊jesus are $erial.Federal.Re$erve.$ocialist’$

      “Eye want more U$.taxpayer.future.debt.$timulus.monie$ to$$ed about than that weak.whig “Oh, Nancy.Pelo$i” doe$! ”

      More+! Trillion$💲💵💰, More+! Trillion$💲💵💰, More+! Trillion$💲💵💰

      Eye’m a non.hypocri$y.fi$cal.con$ervative.Patriot.repubican & totally approve of thi$ me$$age!

  13. Maggots, Rodents, and Fleas: LA’s Garbage Problem Is Getting Worse During the Pandemic | NBCLA

    •Oct 20, 2020

    ‘It’s impossible to miss, heaps of trash near homeless encampments piling up higher and higher. For two years, the NBC4 I-Team has been reporting on the public health problems this creates for all of us. Investigative reporter Joel Grover shows Oct. 19, 2020, us why the garbage problem has gotten so much worse during the pandemic.’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smwCbzdhVpY

    1. I watched all 3 minutes of that. The writhing maggots in the gutter is a California classic right up there with the feces clogged BART station escalators.

      Cue up the: Muh World’s 5th Largest Economy shills to defend this.

      1. And in the golden state the politicians protect the criminals and demonize those who run businesses and try to protect themselves from the orcs, actions that are supported by a complicit media. A veritable hive of scum and villainy working together to terrorize average citizens.

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hPZQRfV36LI

      2. “The writhing maggots in the gutter…”

        One night while walking through a parking lot I couldn’t help but notice the crunching noise like breakfast cereal beneath my shoes. Upon closer inspection they were moving, maggots! I returned just after Dawn to the general contractor’s portable office, and the seagulls were enjoying a feast!

    2. “Maggots, Rodents, and Fleas: LA’s Garbage Problem Is Getting Worse During the Pandemic | NBCLA”

      Q. What Happens If You Eat Maggots?
      https://www.healthline.com/health/eating-maggots#eatingsafely

      (snip)

      “Is there a way to safely eat maggots?”

      “Maggots may be a viable source of protein, good fats, and trace elements. Scientists are looking into the possibility of using maggots to produce textured protein or a sustainable snack for humans.

      “Eating dried, cooked, or powdered maggots is safer than eating whole, unprocessed larvae. The processing would get rid of microbes, parasites, and bacterial spores. Producing larvae in this way would have less of an environmental impact than producing meat for human consumption.

      “However, at present, risks still exist and likely outweigh potential benefits”

      Mr. Banker’s solution: Eliminate the maggot situation and feed the homeless at the same time, then promote this idea to the max so as to offer an IPO to gullible investors. Cash out at the top of the buying frenzy then retire and go live at the beach.

        1. “Just eat the pigeons”

          Given the $hasta.$hate repubican’s have had to proce$$ from the 🍊.jesus, that would bee a 5.$tar meal!

  14. “‘It is not about making money for the Realtors, for crying out loud,’ she said. ‘It’s about tax fairness for people who need help.’”

    Can you imagine anyone anywhere promising to cut taxes/increase benefits for poorer, later born generations and pay for it by increasing taxes/reducing benefits for Generation Greed?

    And yet the opposite is proposed again and again, all over the country, Red State and Blue State alike, and at the federal level.

    1. Still, I think we have to acknowledge that Proposition 13 has had some unintended long term consequences and is politically untouchable.

      The attempts to address some aspects of it will continue…

  15. A bad case of ‘Do you know who I am?’ disease

    14,145,662 views•
    Apr 24, 2018

    Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Commissioner Caren Z. Turner resigns after an investigation into this March, 2018 traffic stop involving Turner’s daughter in Tenafly, New Jersey.

    Turner’s resignation as a Port Authority of New York and New Jersey commissioner came as the agency was investigating Turner’s actions at the traffic stop involving her daughter. By the way, Turner served as the ethics chair for the agency.

    https://youtu.be/Y5zx1xzzi7k?t=55

  16. From Wikipedia …

    In 2018, Turner was heavily criticized for her behavior at a traffic stop by police in Tenafly, New Jersey.[22] Police had stopped a vehicle that contained Turner’s daughter, who had been traveling with friends.[23] After police discovered the vehicle’s registration was two years out of date and the driver did not have an insurance card, they moved to impound it.[23] Turner arrived soon after to pick up her daughter and the other occupants of the impounded car and repeatedly demanded to know the reason for the traffic stop, telling the officers that she was a “friend of the mayor”, that they could “not put a sentence together”, requesting they address her by the title “commissioner”, and stating that they had ruined the holiday of “Ph.D. students from MIT and Yale.” She said she would be “talking to … the mayor”, and then launched into a tirade which climaxed in Turner ordering one of the police officers to “shut the f*** up.”[23][24][25]

    New Jersey police released videotape of the interaction which quickly went viral on YouTube.[26][25] The incident was nationally reported by CBS News, CNBC, and The New York Times, among others.[25][27][23] Intense criticism of Turner followed, with the New Jersey Star Ledger writing that she was “unencumbered by clue” while a commentator for the Today Show described her as having “all the tact and manners of a zoo animal at feeding time.”[28][29] Some came to Turner’s defense, including lawyer Donald Scarinci, who questioned the swift condemnation of Turner.[30]

    Turner went on to apologize, saying “I let my emotions get the better of me and regret my tone toward the police officers and use of off-color language.”[31] She resigned from the Port Authority a week after the video emerged.[23]

    Following Turner’s resignation, Port Authority chair Kevin O’Toole issued an official apology to the Tenafly police officers involved in the incident.[22] Turner was given an official censure by the Port Authority, which described her behavior as “outrageous and profoundly disturbing.”[22] In the earlier statement of apology released by Turner, she had asserted that her actions did not constitute a violation of the code of ethics.[26] Nevertheless, six months following the incident, Turner was fined $1,500 by the Ethics Commission.[32][33]

    Turner’s actions at the traffic stop led to the introduction of legislation in New Jersey to eliminate police style badges being issued to politicians, with Senator Vin Gopal saying the incident had demonstrated that the badges could be used “for the abuse of power.”[34]

    The Record named the traffic stop one of North Jersey’s twelve “biggest moments of 2018.”[35]

  19. The FED has managed to somehow miraculously support a grotesque stock bubble as well as artificially support grossly inflated prices in most asset classes. As Ben has indicated, however, the real estate market is far too large to control.

    1. As Ben has indicated, however, the real estate market is far too large to control.

      Sure. And a horse is far to large to control with flimsy little reins. Under normal circumstances you don’t need full control, though…you just nudge and they control themselves to do what you want. The problem is when the horse/market goes ape-$hit or just rolls over and dies. Are we almost there yet? Ben has pointed out that in some locations the spurs are starting to draw blood and the horse hasn’t responded like you would expect a healthy one to respond in years.

      1. Let’s not beat around the bush. If there are enough stupid greedy people who want something for nothing, combined with guberment/REIC schemes, that’s what blows up prices. Then eventually you end up like Canada and Australia: terminally fooked.

        What a bubble is: trees grow to the sky. When the impulse gets to that level, stand back cuz she’s gonna blow. Today the reality is we’ve got several RE bubbles at the same time. Jeebus, fools are still throwing many millions at this walking-dead co-living junk.

        1. “If there are enough stupid greedy people who want something for nothing, combined with guberment/REIC schemes, that’s what blows up prices.”

          It wouldn’t work without government and central bank support.

      2. Again, the market is too large to control. Even though prices are set on the margin, once the inventory balloons there aren’t enough bids. Is the FED going to run around and buy all the houses? Doubtful. Will they try to come up with more and more schemes? Probably. But I doubt it can work.

        1. Anecdotally homes are still selling like hotcakes in San Diego at a premium to fundamental value, reflecting the belief that real estate always goes up, even in a pandemic-related depression.

          Personally I wouldn’t go near a real estate purchase unless I already had a home to sell in exchange for the one I was buying. The uncertain effects on future prices with respect to the fates of people currently living in homes without making monthly payments is too great.

        1. “And a horse is far to large to control with flimsy little reins.”

          Yes, both bits and bitless bridles can hurt horses. The pain they can cause the horse varies greatly and should be noticeable by the owner. In general, the pain caused by the pressure of the bridle is considered cruel.”

          $pot.on!

          Don’t bridle me dude! & ‘bye thee way, get yer knee off my rigger.neck!

        1. Her husband was always a RINO, a neocon stooge, and Sheldon Adelson’s bit*ch. She’s not a turncoat. She was never on the side of We the People.

        2. “These people were never on the ship.”

          The Repubican Senators votes, disavow yer statement.

  22. Seems like the stimulus package is in severe doubt. And all the stock market hand wringing was for naught, as Mr. Market doesn’t seem to care…

    1. Dumb question of the day: Wouldn’t it be easier to pass stimulus after the election?

      Politics
      Senate Democrats block GOP’s $500 billion coronavirus aid bill as Pelosi-Mnuchin talks continue
      Published Wed, Oct 21 2020
      1:44 PM EDT
      Updated 55 Min Ago
      Jacob Pramuk
      Key Points
      — Senate Democrats block a $500 billion GOP coronavirus relief bill as Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin continue talks toward a comprehensive deal.
      — While the sides are citing progress in the bipartisan talks, it still looks unlikely that they can reach an agreement capable of passing both chambers of Congress before the 2020 election.
      — The Senate GOP bill includes more PPP funds, a $300 per week supplemental unemployment insurance benefit and liability protections for businesses. It does not include another round of direct payments to people.
      …

    2. Cue up that “Yip yip yip yip” song that Ben likes to post from time to time…

      ‘It is daunting to think about what the consequences will be.’ With no new stimulus deal, much of America’s temporary financial safety net is set to expire Dec. 31
      Published: Oct. 21, 2020 at 2:00 p.m. ET
      By Andrew Keshner,
      Jacob Passy,
      Jillian Berman,
      Elisabeth Buchwald,
      and
      Leslie Albrecht
      The help that Americans have been getting with rent, unemployment benefits, student loans, paid leave and more is scheduled to end soon
      …

      1. Get a Job
        The Silhouettes

        “Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
        Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
        Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
        Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
        Yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip
        Mum mum mum mum mum mum
        Get a job Sha na na na, sha na na na na…”

        1. Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
          Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
          Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
          Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
          Yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip
          Mum mum mum mum mum mum
          Learn to code Sha na na na, sha na na na na…

  23. My posts are going straight to trash again. I wonder if it’s my computer or if others are having problems as well. Seems to happen once a week at least.

      2. I only know they were going to trash because Ben told me so. What happens is when I hit “post comment” the screen blinks and reloads really fast with no post showing period. It’s very odd. I was thinking it was a connectivity issue until he found them in his trash.

        1. There is probably an algorithm that screens all our posts and perhaps due to a bug (AKA logic error) it sends some of your posts to the trash bin.

    2. “My posts are going straight to trash again.”

      Have you tried another browser, free of extensions?

      Are you using a legitimate domain for your spoof email address, e.g., something like falseid @ yahoo.com?

      Or maybe cookie crunching and/or javascript blocking?

      2. I’m using Joshua Tree. I tried disabling it but the same thing happened. Everything is of course fine again. Very odd. I only mentioned it to alert Ben in case there was something going on with his blog that he works so hard on.

  24. “It wouldn’t work without government and central bank $upport.”

    🎬🎡🎢🎪⛽💉🚀⬆↗↗⤴📈📈📈📈📈📈📈📈📈🎂🎇🎆🎉🎉🎉 …🎃

    “Enabling is the behavior of protecting others from experiencing the full impact$ and con$equences of their $elf.inflicted.behavior$”

    1. So they wanted people to pay for access to the next Tiktok? Or they thought by professionally producing content they could make something so much better people would pay…for Tiktok? I can only think of one category where that might work and only fans or whatever it’s called already has a big head start.

    2. 2 billion yellen bucks down the drain.

      Remember when start ups began in a garage? Pepperidge Farms does!

  27. Once distressed pricing becomes public, retail sales can fall apart. ‘The last thing they want is the broker to have access — and blast it to the media,’ Swerdlow said.”

    The fatal flaw in this genius plan is a little something called the internet.

  28. “The reported vacancy rate among respondents ticked up to 12.81 percent from 12.55 percent in September.

    Is that a lot?

  29. “‘It is not about making money for the Realtors, for crying out loud,’ she said. ‘It’s about tax fairness for people who need help.’”

    Realtors are liars.

      2. Do you have a daughter? … Eye would hope that you would let her hang with thee.”meat.loaf”.alone.over.knight & bee sooo proud as a father of that association that you have given a $tamp of approval!

        1. Is there something horrible about Meatloaf that I should know?

          I did have a strange gig once as part of a fake classical string quartet warmup act for one of their concerts. It was hilarious…

          1. Eye’m knot saying sex.threesomes are horrible, in fact this fellow.musician has delighted in threesomes as well:

            Gene Simmons Shares the Secret to Bedding 4,897 Women
            BY JOSEPH HUDAK

  30. ‘As a result, we are asking a majority of homeowners to reformat our leases in a way that enables us to get through these difficult times together and provides additional upside for landlords once the markets rebound.’”

    “We’re all in this together.”

  34. ChinaJoe has some talking to do first thing tomorrow.

    His son CrackPipe has been under FBI investigation for money laundering since last year.

    Why did deep state slow walk this thing until they couldn’t anymore?

    DonK.

      1. Let the blame game commence.

        Coronavirus
        Second stimulus check updates: COVID-19 relief talks inch forward, but Mitch McConnell is resistant and lame-duck prospects are dim
        By ANDREW TAYLOR
        Associated Press |
        Oct 21, 2020 at 5:51 PM

        WASHINGTON — Negotiations on a COVID-19 relief bill are inching forward, but it’s clear the window for action before the Nov. 3 election is closing and the issue will be tossed to a postelection lame-duck session of Congress.

        The only thing that seems certain beyond that is uncertainty, with Capitol Hill veterans cautioning against expecting a quick and smooth resolution for an aid package that has tied Washington in knots for months.

        Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi spoke again Wednesday but her office signaled no real progress, and she acknowledged for the first time publicly that the measure won’t pass before the election.

        President Donald Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, accused Pelosi of slow-walking the talks. Trump’s most powerful Senate GOP ally, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is warning against a costly deal that could drive a wedge between the president and his fellow Republicans.
        …

    3. Why did Rudy Giuliani wait until so close to the election to drop his bombshell child porn revelations in the media? Doesn’t he realize that a lot of people have already voted by now?

    4. ” …has some talking to do first thing tomorrow. ”

      🍊.Jesus $ecret.China.Bank.account.undi$closed. = Beijing Barry!

  35. I think every commercial building on Corporate center drive is empty and for lease in Newberry park CA next to Amgen. Was going to a local machine shop couldn’t help notice so many for lease signs everywhere.

    And incredibly there was construction of new buildings going on with tilt ups and Giant cranes. I don’t get it ? Meanwhile down off Topanga Blvd in the SFV homeless tent city in front of the Marriott in the Warner Center. Its getting bad.

    1. Meanwhile down off Topanga Blvd in the SFV homeless tent city in front of the Marriott in the Warner Center.

      It’s only going to get worse.

      Since it now appears that it will closed indefinitely, Disney should gut the Happiest Place on Earth, ship everything they can to a new, out of state location, and convert Disneyland’s carcass into the happiest tent city on earth,

    2. Seconded. So tired of seeing far disney princesses in bedazzled Minnie ears who undoubtedly used student loan money to buy unlimited $1000 annual passes on the 12 tear BA in studies plan.

      Disney sells a toxic fantasy that ruins young women and young gay men.

  39. Is it reasonable to hope that Modern Monetary Theory will die in the cradle, before left wing extremist politicians coalesce with crackpot economists to implement it as economic policy?

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Markets Insight
      The case against Modern Monetary Theory
      The deficit reality is that we are in effect borrowing from our collective economic futures
      Stephen King
      A printing press for dollar bills at the US Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington
      © Getty Images
      Stephen King
      35 minutes ago
      The author is HSBC’s Senior Economic Adviser and author of ‘Grave New World’

      In a world in which government debt is rapidly rising, it’s hardly surprising that there’s growing interest among investors in Modern Monetary Theory. After all, one of its central claims is that budget deficits are, from a financing perspective, an irrelevance. So long as increased government borrowing doesn’t lead to inflation — and, at the moment, there really isn’t much of it around — we can all afford to relax.

      As Stephanie Kelton notes in her book The Deficit Myth, governments with access to a printing press are “currency issuers” (exceptions include, most obviously, members of the eurozone). As such, all their spending could, in principle, be financed via the creation of cash. Taxes may serve other purposes — the redistribution of income and wealth, the discouragement of “sinful” behaviour — but, in the world of MMT, they serve no useful macroeconomic role.

      In the real world, however, taxes are crucial. The fundamental difference between government finances and those of companies and households is not access to a printing press but, instead, the coercive power to raise taxes. A company making a severe loss cannot reduce that loss by imposing taxes on everyone else. A government can. A worker receiving a pay cut cannot force others to make up the difference. A government can.

      Armed with this knowledge, creditors are understandably willing to accept mostly lower returns on government bonds than on other investments. Put simply, the risk of government default in the face of an adverse economic shock is lower than for other would-be borrowers.

      Admittedly, there are limits, dictated largely by the political capacity of a government to raise revenues in difficult circumstances. Emerging markets often end up resorting instead to devaluation, default or inflation. In anticipation, borrowing costs spike.

      Still, imagine for a moment that governments embrace MMT. Imagine too, as MMT proponents suggest, that control of the printing press is taken away from unelected central bankers and given to “accountable” elected fiscal representatives. Would we be any better off?

      Far from it. Giving elected representatives the keys to the printing press is the equivalent of giving a gambling addict the keys to the casino. For many politicians, the primary objective is to remain in power. As such, they will too often be incentivised to pursue instant gratification at the expense of longer-term stability. In the early-1970s, the UK embarked on what became known as the “Barber boom”, thanks to the efforts of Conservative chancellor of the exchequer Anthony Barber to engineer an election victory in 1974. As it turned out, the Tories lost and, two years later, the UK ignominiously had to accept a bailout from the IMF. Central bank independence provides a useful bulwark against such behaviour.
      …

    2. “Pu$hover.Powell” & $tephan Munchin are neo.qua$i.American.$ocialist’$ & 🍊.jesus apostle$.

      What is the MMT cap & penaltie$ for “UNLIMITED+” & 21 Trillion$ ⬆↗⤴ in “unaudited” Federal.Re$serve U$.Taxpayer backed di$tribution$.

      $ound thee call & gather all the angry Patriot.Tea.Party militia$ outta of NRA retirement!

  40. Disclaimer: I neither agree nor disagree with the op-ed I’m about to post. I’m just putting it out there for those of you who enjoy political debate.

      1. Joe said last night that we should vote for the personality that we like. I disagree. We should vote for the agenda that will be better for America. We don’t think the Socialist or Globalist agenda is good for America at all.

          1. DJT showed last night that he can modulate his at will.

            If that’s true (and I suspect it is) I’m curious why he picks such a crappy one to present to the world most of the time? Must be part of the art of the deal I guess. American used to want to elect a guy they’d like to have a beer with, but now they want to elect someone to lock their enemies in a room with.

          3. If that’s true (and I suspect it is) I’m curious why he picks I suspect his reason for picking whatever-he-did-pick is that it works reasonably well against the globalist/MSM cabal.

    2. But P Bear, you’ve been so restrained in your posts I thought you were undecided.

      Color me shocked.

      1. Robinhood’s$ Addictive App Made Trading a Pandemic Pa$time
        Now the platform has to make money from its devoted fan$.

        Bloomberg / Oct 21 2020

        Millennials’ share of Robinhood’s assets under management, in 2019: 80%

        In attracting users, Robinhood has been incredibly effective. It has more than 13 million customers, 3 million of whom signed up in the first four months of the year. That’s well above the 5.8 million retail accounts as of the end of June at ETrade, a company with an almost 40-year track record. Robinhood’s account balances are more modest than those at other large brokerages, says a person familiar with the company. In June it reported that average daily trades exceeded 4 million, blowing past all other brokerage rivals at a time when retail trading was booming.

        Along the way, Robinhood has challenged industry conventions. It brought the compulsive, viral loops that govern our lives on Instagram and Twitter into the financial realm. The app is neatly in sync with Robinhood’s mostly millennial-age customer base: About 80% of its assets under management come from millennial users, the 2019 pitch deck says. Half of new Robinhood customers this year were first-time investors, the company said in May.

        “Wall Street people don’t love this—it’s legalized gambling

  42. Ed Brown, former Patrón Spirits CEO, sold his oceanfront Hillsboro Beach mansion at a loss, for $16.5 million. Luxury spec home developer Mark Timothy built the home in 2017, the same year the Browns bought it for $20 million

    That’s a lot of Tequila.

  43. New eviction ban in the Centennial State. My favorite part:

    Either expect to make no more than $99,000 in annual income for calendar year 2020 or no more than $198,000 if they are filing a joint tax return

    A couple making $200K can’t be expected to pay the rent? Maybe they shouldn’t have taken out a loan on that Tesla and saved some money.

    And I know couples with this kind of income who save NOTHING.

  44. Welcome to the recoveryless recovery:

    “The eviction crisis exacerbated by the pandemic is hitting minorities much harder than other Americans, and experts are concerned the problem will only get worse in the coming months as the coronavirus recession drags on.

    A review of more than 8,000 eviction cases by the Center for Public Integrity found that almost two-thirds of the tenants lived in areas with above average minority representation with a median household income below $42,000. The thousands of evictions filed spanned late March to early July, primarily in Florida and Georgia.”

    https://thehill.com/policy/finance/521855-eviction-crisis-sparked-by-pandemic-disproportionately-hits-minorities

  45. Rye, NY Housing Prices Crater 47% YOY As Housing Liquidation Accelerates In NY Suburbs

    https://www.movoto.com/rye-ny/market-trends/

    As one nation housing analyst observed, “The rush out of housing is happening across the US. Not just on the east and west coasts. Losing your shirt is always part of the housing equation.”

    1. Domestic violence calls are among the most dangerous. And to die like that after 41-yrs on the force is a tragedy.

      1. Domestic violence calls are among the most dangerous.

        Absolutely. The kind of guys who beat the crap out of their women and children don’t give an eff about human life.

      2. “The kind of guys…”

        Any guy, even Mr. Rogers, can go “full-tilt rage” with a manipulative woman pressing his buttons.

      1. My employer moved its annual convention/show to Las Vegas, as customers at previous “OpenWorlds” began to complain about San Francisco’s vibrancy. I’m also sure that Vegas will be cheaper. Other conventions have also announced they’re leaving. While local hotels and restaurants panicked over the convention losses, city hall gave those leaving the finger and said “good riddance”.

        Of course this year all convention in SF have been cancelled, and as always, city hall seems utterly unconcerned. No doubt they are counting on a Biden Bailout to cover their lost tax revenue.

        1. They don’t need to wait, they can get all the “unaudited” neo.qua$i.American.$ocialist.Munchin’$.$ucker.U$taxpayer.back.x23+Trillion$.monie$ today!

          More.free.$tuff! 💰💲💵, 💰💲💵,💰💲💵, 💰💲💵 🎉🎉🎉

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