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It’s The Road Runner Dynamite Scenario

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “Isaac Kassirer was at the forefront of one of the hottest trends in commercial real estate. He borrowed from global investors by promising to gentrify apartment buildings in New York’s low-income neighborhoods and raise the rents. Mr. Kassirer fell behind on some loans before the coronavirus pandemic and now some tenants are in open rebellion. Wall Street embraced landlords like Mr. Kassirer over the past decade. Bankers packaged up their loans and sold them to bond investors with the promise that the buildings would generate much higher income.”

“About 40 of his mortgages in the area went into forbearance in the spring, according to Freddie Mac data. ‘Gentrification came back to bite them in the tushy,’ said Cathy Stephens, a 31-year resident.”

The New York Times. “One in five New York City tenants did not pay rent in September, by one estimate, and there is growing concern of ‘an eviction tsunami.’ As apartment vacancies climb, sale prices and rents are falling, but nowhere near the magnitude needed to compensate for scarce affordable housing options. The outlook is daunting. Unemployment in New York City is still 14 per cent, after hitting 20 per cent in June and July. The hotel occupancy rate is 39 per cent, down from 95 per cent this time last year, according to research firm STR. Roughly one-third of the city’s 240,000 small businesses may never reopen.”

“Residential real estate sales plummeted 40 per cent in July, and 57 per cent in August, compared with 2019, according to the New York City Comptroller’s Office. Commercial sales were down 28 per cent and 43 per cent in July and August, compared with last year. Discounts of under 10 per cent are widespread, but prices have yet to plummet, except in the ultraluxury tier.”

“It is less clear what will happen in the saturated new-development market. Out of more than 20,000 condo units citywide that have come to market since 2018, nearly 60 per cent remain unsold, said Kael Goodman, chief executive of Marketproof, a real estate data company. That represents US$33 billion of unsold apartments, and about 2,000 of those units have not yet even begun sales.”

“‘It’s the ‘Road Runner’ dynamite scenario: The fuse is burning, but it hasn’t blown,’ Mr Goodman said. ‘Whichever way things break, there will be buildings that will have to be traded.'”

From WWL TV in Louisiana. “As executive director of Housing NOLA, Andreanecia Morris is helping lead an incentive program designed to connect families in need of housing to landlords who have vacant properties. Landlords get guaranteed fair market value for their property while families get to rest easy. Through grants and other funding Morris says about 1,600 families are ready to move in, but there’s a problem. ‘They’ve got the assistance necessary to get housing and they just can’t find it,’ said Morris.”

“Morris says that’s in a city with an estimated 16 -18,000 vacant rental units. ‘It’s a huge mismatch,’ Morris said.”

From Tuscaloosa News in Alabama. “A month after adopting new regulations governing student-based housing across the Tuscaloosa, city leaders are still wrestling with some aspects of this industry. At center stage now is a potential ban on four- and five-bedroom units within smaller developments, such as duplexes, triplexes, quadplexes and townhouses. District 4 Councilman Lee Busby s questioning the fairness of allowing them in certain developments but not in others. ‘If the restrictions in the fives and fours in the mega-developments is partially driven by … this oversupply, this saturation, why would it be any less impacted by the ‘plexes?,’ Busby said.”

“He’s referring to City Hall data showing that, since 2011, more than 14,000 new bedrooms were built student-based or multifamily projects while the University of Alabama’s enrollment went up by about 7,800. ‘I think … we are oversaturated with student apartments,’ Mayor Walt Maddox said, ‘but I don’t think getting rid of the fours and fives will help that problem. We don’t want to get in the business or regulating supply and demand, but we’re concerned that if we have an oversupply of these, they’re going to … creates problems. ‘”

The Marco Eagle in Florida. “The Marco Island Civic Association announced earlier this month that it will no longer allow short-term renters to enter its membership-only Residents’ Beach facility to limit crowds as high season nears, but some condo owners say they are not happy with the decision. Mark Nothnagel, owner of a two-bedroom unit at the Mariner, said a client who made a month-long reservation for January canceled because of the new rules, resulting in a rental income loss of $4,000 to $5,000.”

“‘It’s not the main reason we own (the condo) but it is a part of the reason a lot of people own properties on Marco Island,’ Nothnagel said. Nothnagel said if he continues to receive cancellations he may have to consider selling the condo. Sean Ensminger, owner of two condo units near Residents’ Beach, said a renter canceled a month-long reservation for January because of MICA’s new rule. Ensminger said he will soon have to notify other renters who are not aware of MICA’s policy change, and that it might result in cancellations. If more renters cancel, Ensminger said he will consider selling the properties.”

“‘It’s critical for us to be able to rent it, and get that rental income for the high season,’ Ensminger said.”

From WQAD in Illinois. “A property owner is suing the Village of North Utica, the town where Illinois’ Starved Rock State Park sits. Property owner Sam Patel says a change in Village law dictates how he does business and who he does business with. And now some property owners are selling their units, even when demand for rentals is high. His 10 rental cabins sit empty. Patel used to book guests through third-party services like Airbnb. But under a new village ordinance enacted in February 2020, he can’t do that anymore unless he gets special approval. And the Village denied his application for that citing zoning issues.”

“‘I’m crunching the numbers in my head and at the rates they rent it out at, I can’t pay my mortgage, my utilities, insurance with them taking such a big cut,’ says Patel.”

From CNBC. “In previous downturns, commercial property loan losses were ‘heavy’ and there are worrying signs that such a trend could be repeated this time during the pandemic-induced slowdown, Oxford Economics’ Adam Slater said in a report. ‘Large (commercial real estate) price declines generally translate into big losses for banks,’ Slater, an economist at the firm, wrote. This time those risks look highest in the U.S., Australia, and parts of Asia such as Hong Kong and South Korea.”

“‘In the case of property funds, (commercial real estate) downturns could see a rush by investors to redeem their holdings leading to fire sales of assets — amplifying price declines and broader loan losses,’ said Slater.”

From Connect Media. “NAI Global CEO Jay Olshonsky sees the makings of another wave of distress in the current downturn. Accordingly, he and his team are advising clients to prepare, in a variety of ways. Olshonsky tells Connect Media, is that ‘this is going to hit a lot of major product types in commercial real estate for the first time in a long time.’ Naturally, the two most widely discussed are hotel and retail, which have already withstood the worst of the extended shutdown.”

“The potential for distress extends to the office and multifamily sectors, Olshonsky says. In the case of office, it is due to the pandemic’s acceleration of the work-from-home trend. ‘Do I believe that offices will be closed and people will work from home forever? No,’ he says. ‘Could it be two to three years? Certainly, and that would cause properties to not have any net operating income and pay debt.'”

“Multifamily operators may also be facing similar challenges, ‘because now you have people just not paying rent because of job loss,’ says Olshonsky. ‘That’s very different from 2009, because back then multifamily was the star and did just fine.'”

“Naturally, a recapitalization depends on ‘whether the lender will allow you to actually do that and buy into your plan, and whether you’ll need to put more equity into the property,’ he says. Alternately, if the property’s income outlook is truly painful, the owner has to weigh the implications of giving it back to the lender.”

“‘The other thing we’re recommending to owners is that, with all of the money out there, if they really want to know what their property is worth, put it on the market now and see what the pricing would bear,’ says Olshonsky. ‘You don’t know if it’s 10 cents on the dollar or 70 cents on the dollar until you get it there in front of a broad group of people. We’re finding that most owners are saying, ‘I want to get the same money I would have gotten on Feb.1 of this year’ and we’re nicely saying to them, ‘well, it’s not Feb. 1 anymore.'”

From Bisnow on Texas. “Dallas-Fort Worth skyscrapers and historic trophy buildings are hitting the sales block, capping off a particularly full sales market. DFW has eight office buildings taller than 10 stories listed for sale, according to CoStar Group data. They total 1.6M SF of office space for sale in the Metroplex. Though the sellers of these eight buildings have not said why they chose to put their buildings on the market now, CoStar Director of Market Analytics Paul Hendershot said the pandemic’s impact and ongoing foreign investor interest in DFW could have prompted owners to list their assets.”

“‘There may be a few owners who feel the economic pain brought on by the pandemic and are looking to unload a property,’ Hendershot said. ‘The lion share of the deals taking place are not distressed properties being listed as fire sales.'”

“‘While the largest buildings may make the headlines, the number of total listings in the market has been steadily increasing in 2020,” Hendershot told Bisnow. In the first quarter of 2020, there were 986 total office building listings in DFW, followed by 1,046 in the second quarter and 1,110 in the third quarter, Hendershot said. Today, there are 1,149 office buildings for sale, the highest level reached in a decade, according to CoStar.”

From Fox 40 on California. “Michael Schiesz is moving from Sunnyvale to Placerville. Schiesz has lived in his Sunnyvale home for more than 40 years, but now, he says he’s just had enough of living in Silicon Valley. Ironically, Schiesz says it’s been tough to sell his home in Sunnyvale and impossible to imagine a pre-COVID-19 world because of its location, which is less than a mile of ‘that big Apple complex.'”

The E’ville Eye in California. “The demand is highest for single-family homes in suburban communities as remote work becomes more commonplace and proximity to urban ‘job centers’ becomes a less important criterion. Many are predicting an ‘exodus’ from denser communities San Francisco. For a city like Emeryville that consists of mostly condominiums and whose probably greatest attribute is its proximity to SF, this has put the market in favor of buyers. We’re beginning to see many condominium sellers lowering their initial list price to stoke interest by buyers.”

“Rents continued their gradual decline since the pandemic began with 27 of 31 cities (~87%) experiencing year-over-year (YoY) median rent declines. The most expensive markets are experiencing the most drastic declines. New listings in July 2020 rose 53% compared to this time last year. The trend continued in August with 44% more listings compared to August 2019.”

“Over the last year, Emeryville averaged about 15 active listings per month. Currently there are 36 properties for sale. YTD listings sold: 74 (25% YoY decline). Median YTD list price: $499,950 (14.5% YoY decline). Median YTD sales price: $500,000 (8.3% YoY decline). Median YTD days on market: 20 days (42.8% YoY increase). Inventory continues to be high and more properties are coming on the market. All this is pointing to a shift in the market. The median sales price in Emeryville declined sharply in 2020 to $535,000 from $600,000 in 2019 and $590,000 in 2018.”

The Los Angeles Business Journal in California. “The luxury housing market in Los Angeles may not be immune to Covid-19, but it seems to have built up a strong resistance to the impact of the pandemic. Most agents agree on two things: Sellers are being more realistic on price, and buyers want land. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, there was more aspirational pricing, said Compass’ Sally Forster Jones. But now, she added, sellers have ‘less aspirational pricing and more realistic pricing. There’s no more overpricing, and people coming in and negotiating. Sellers are being reasonable. Buyers and sellers are on the same page.'”

“David Kramer, an agent at Hilton & Hyland, called current asking prices ‘more realistic. ‘(Sellers) look at the history of some of the aspirational properties that haven’t sold.'”

The Union Tribune in California. “San Diego-based Guild Mortgage will pay $24.9 million to the federal government to resolve allegations it knowingly violated requirements for home loans that later defaulted. The U.S. Department of Justice said Thursday that allegations, from a former employee, stated the company violated the False Claims Act by not following requirements when issuing mortgages it originated and underwrote for Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, insured loans.”

“Despite paying the lofty sum, the department said the claims were only allegations and there had been no determination of liability. Guild Mortgage said in a statement that it entered into the settlement to avoid the delay, uncertainty and expense of litigation.”

“‘Guild remains confident in the compliance processes it has in place for FHA-related mortgage lending and other mortgage lending activities and maintains its position that the claims asserted were without merit,’ wrote Guild CEO Mary Ann McGarry in a statement. ‘With this matter now behind us, Guild looks forward to continuing to help its clients achieve their dreams of homeownership.'”

Related Posts

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This Post Has 165 Comments

  1. ‘Wall Street embraced landlords like Mr. Kassirer over the past decade. Bankers packaged up their loans and sold them to bond investors with the promise that the buildings would generate much higher income’

    ‘About 40 of his mortgages in the area went into forbearance in the spring’

    As the article points out, they were financing these things all over the country.

    1. “Bankers packaged up their loans and sold them to bond investors with the promise that the buildings would generate much higher income.”

      Bahahahahahaha … F them if they can’t take a joke.

      1. Keep the rewards, pass on the risks.

        I truly like it.

        I certainly love it.

        And I definitely want more of it.

        😁

    2. ‘Gentrification came back to bite them in the tushy,’

      Harebrained financial schemes normally end with some bagholder getting a bite in the arse.

  2. ‘Currently there are 36 properties for sale. YTD listings sold: 74…Median YTD days on market: 20 days (42.8% YoY increase)’

    OK, so here we are in October and years sales are 75. Inventory 36, but days on market is 20? Somebody is a lion.

    ‘Inventory continues to be high and more properties are coming on the market. All this is pointing to a shift in the market. The median sales price in Emeryville declined sharply in 2020 to $535,000 from $600,000 in 2019 and $590,000 in 2018’

    I’m looking at the graphic under this line:

    ‘Year to year sales and prices decline, days on market increase’

    It looks like it says down 33%.

    Oh dear…

  3. ‘Naturally, a recapitalization depends on ‘whether the lender will allow you to actually do that and buy into your plan, and whether you’ll need to put more equity into the property,’ he says. Alternately, if the property’s income outlook is truly painful, the owner has to weigh the implications of giving it back to the lender’

    Naturally.

    ‘‘You don’t know if it’s 10 cents on the dollar or 70 cents on the dollar until you get it there in front of a broad group of people. We’re finding that most owners are saying, ‘I want to get the same money I would have gotten on Feb.1 of this year’ and we’re nicely saying to them, ‘well, it’s not Feb. 1 anymore’

    Looks like some price discovery to me, trolls!

    2. It’s only price discovery when something sells. I continue to fear a bailout/extend and pretend. Only federal policy can prevent price discovery, and it would be redistributing income up, again.

      I hope future investors, and those who actually live in the buildings, won’t get shafted again.

      “‘It’s the ‘Road Runner’ dynamite scenario: The fuse is burning, but it hasn’t blown,’ Mr Goodman said. ‘Whichever way things break, there will be buildings that will have to be traded.’”

      1. Only federal policy can prevent price discovery

        It can only defer it. Eventually it will assert itself.

    3. ‘‘You don’t know if it’s 10 cents on the dollar or 70 cents on the dollar until you get it there in front of a broad group of people.

      Interbank lending locked up in 2008, causing the implosion of Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros, when banks refused to loan against collateral being offered that was full of securitized toxic waste subprime mortgages. Even with the Fed frantically pumping in trillions of liquidity through the repo window since last October, at some point the rapidly decaying collateral valuations are going to catch up with lenders and “investors”, once again. True price discovery is going to be a biatch.

      1. I think the central planners hope to circumvent any true price discovery (which would end the financial system as we know it) by implementing a global monetary digital gulag. You will only be allowed to own what the central planners allow you to own and it’s value will be determined by what say central planners say it is worth. There will be no cash and every transaction will be controlled by the central authority. Your income will be provided in the form of digital credits and depend on your compliance with the rules set forth by the central authority. That seems to be the plan as far as I can tell.

        “San Diego-based Guild Mortgage will pay $24.9 million to the federal government to resolve allegations it knowingly violated requirements for home loans that later defaulted. “

        This is still happening. I know someone who just got financing to buy a house in San Diego with no job and no income.

        2. This is still happening. I know someone who just got financing to buy a house in San Diego with no job and no income.

          In my opinion, the central banks understand that they have to keep the liquidity flowing or the entire system collapses. That’s why they are buying all the garbage CDOs from the banks, with the instructions of “keep lending, no matter what, we will buy it.”

        3. “.. There will be no cash and every transaction will be controlled by the central authority….”

          And the true identity of the central authority will be shielded by use of block chain technologies such as bitcoin.

          The pieces are falling into place quite rapidly.

          A race for absolute power without firing a single shot.

          1. And the true identity of the central authority will be shielded by use of block chain technologies such as bitcoin.

            Why would they bother concealing their identity? Confabs like the Bilderbergs and the Davos crowd feature the same cabal of globalist oligarchs. The central bankers’ war on savers is a prelude to their war on cash, which is aimed at imposing “total information awareness” of all citizen sources of wealth and revenue, to facilitate the oligarchy’s more thorough and efficient plunder of same.

        4. You will only be allowed to own what the central planners allow you to own and it’s value will be determined by what say central planners say it is worth.

          That’s pretty much what I meant by “eventually they will own everything”. By controlling what everything is “worth” it’s not so difficult to control who can own it. Only they and their friends will have the cash to own it…or even pay the taxes on it. But it’s not a done deal yet, it just looks to me like that’s where they want to go.

        5. You will only be allowed to own what the central planners allow you to own

          This is only possible if you elect a socialist maniac or if you are a debt donkey.

          Get out of debt like you were getting out of a death camp.

          1. They can announce a new variant virus COVID32 which is especially prone to being transmitted by paper money and coinage. Then put Dr Fauci on TV being interviewed by Anderson Cooper telling everyone to where gloves when handling money and asking you to put all your money in an air tight container in your home. Splash of a few images of emergency rooms crowded with new victims of COVID32. Or engineer some horrific terrorist attack that freezes the financial system and tell everyone in order to prevent future events like it and protect the integrity of the banking system we need to go to digital money. Once they induce enough fear most people will believe and accept almost anything. I wish it weren’t true.

          2. The reason these people are so successful is that they manipulate people in ways they never suspect, use a person’s most noble instincts against them. The central planners of today have a road map of human behavior and the human mind that puts the average person at a great disadvantage. If they do implement their monetary tyranny, I think people who thought it couldn’t be possible will be surprised to see how easily it was accomplished. I pray it never happens.

          3. Once they induce enough fear most people will believe and accept almost anything. Once the political system faces a big enough emergency, even the US Supreme Court will ratify almost anything, e.g., FDR’s abrogation of contracts with a gold clause in them (1933) later ratified by the USSC, and FDR’s internment of law abiding American citizens during WWII (1942-1945) also ratified by the USSC.

  4. ‘now some property owners are selling their units, even when demand for rentals is high. His 10 rental cabins sit empty…’I’m crunching the numbers in my head and at the rates they rent it out at, I can’t pay my mortgage, my utilities, insurance with them taking such a big cut’

    Yer fooked Sam.

  5. ‘Out of more than 20,000 condo units citywide that have come to market since 2018, nearly 60 per cent remain unsold…That represents US$33 billion of unsold apartments, and about 2,000 of those units have not yet even begun sales’

    They used to call that $33 billion ‘shadow inventory’ in New York. That’s new, unsold airboxes. You can see why a 8 billion debt fund is a drop in the bucket.

    1. They used to call that $33 billion ‘shadow inventory’ in New York.

      Pshaw, Ben Jones! Peddle your discredited conspiracy theories elsewhere.

      Oh, wait….

    2. How long is the term of a builder loan/mortgage? At some point, doesnt the bank say you need to pay it off.

      Or as long as they are paying the monthly payment are they ok? I wonder if they refinanced from 6% to 3% or something like that

  6. ‘In the first quarter of 2020, there were 986 total office building listings in DFW, followed by 1,046 in the second quarter and 1,110 in the third quarter…Today, there are 1,149 office buildings for sale, the highest level reached in a decade’

    Is that a lot?

    1. A new sort of panhandler has taken up residence on one of the most lucrative begging spots in Colorado Springs, where Pottery Barn and a bunch of retail establishments frequented by empty-headed suburban housewives feed into Barnes Avenue. This lady is either Central American or indigenous (Mayan) from southern Mexico – she’s not a Mestizo; I’ve never seen a Mestizo (Mexican) panhandler in Colorado Springs – most have jobs to go to. She is very squat and dark-skinned, and has a kid in a stroller with her. She must be making out pretty well, because she’s at that spot every day, and I’ve heard the panhandlers have to kick back a portion of their take to the gangs that allocate the prime begging spots. I expect she’s going to be the first of many, once word gets back to Chiapas or Oaxaca that the suburban housewives of Colorado Springs are a soft touch.

      2. We have Indian panhandlers here and they always use kids as a prop.

        Never seen a Mexican or Central American panhandler around here.

  9. “About 40 of his mortgages in the area went into forbearance in the spring, according to Freddie Mac data. ‘Gentrification came back to bite them in the tushy,’ said Cathy Stephens, a 31-year resident.”

    Sounds like a case of the parasites killing off their host.

  10. Mark Nothnagel, owner of a two-bedroom unit at the Mariner, said a client who made a month-long reservation for January canceled because of the new rules, resulting in a rental income loss of $4,000 to $5,000.”

    When housing losses we must eat
    Let us stamp our little feet!

  11. Oh dear. Yield-seekers who bought risky bonds are getting their heads handed to them as the fraud of Keynesian economics and Fed monetary malpractice are starting to unravel.

    Bond Defaults Deliver 99% Losses in New Era of U.S. Bankruptcies

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-26/bond-defaults-deliver-99-losses-in-new-era-of-u-s-bankruptcies?sref=ibr3A0ff

    Three cents. Two cents. Even a mere 0.125 cents on the dollar.

    More and more, these are the kinds of scraps that bondholders are fighting over as companies go belly up.

    Bankruptcy filings are surging due to the economic fallout of Covid-19, and many lenders are coming to the realization that their claims are almost completely worthless. Instead of recouping, say, 40 cents for every dollar owed, as has been the norm for years, unsecured creditors now face the unenviable prospect of walking away with just pennies — if that.

    1. ‘Three cents. Two cents. Even a mere 0.125 cents on the dollar’

      Golly, that looks like price discovery too!

    2. Sounds a bit, er, … deflationary.

      Or, another way of looking at it: This recent bond generating process has always been deflationary but was concealed from the masses due to the madness of crowds.

      The madness of crowds and the availability of borrowed money caused and allowed prices to be bid up and excess infrastructure to be built. This phenom was viewed by the masses as signs of permanant prosperity, and this view was half right.

      (Half right. I will leave it up to you, the reader, to decide which part of the term “permanent prosperity” was right and which part wasn’t.)

    1. Ill be ok with my healthy 4cyl car, but it will be the end of free shipping with $35 they will have to raise it to $100 or more

      1. Ill be ok with my healthy 4cyl car, but it will be the end of free shipping with $35 they will have to raise it to $100 or more

        The shipping is not “free.” You’re paying for it. Don’t fall for scams.

    2. “Vote for Biden.”

      Back To The Future

      MAY 24, 2012

      OBAMA’S FOLLY: GAMBLING BILLIONS ON GREEN ENERGY

      THE PRESIDENT’S LOSING BETS ON GREEN ENERGY
      President Obama correctly calls us the nation of the Wright brothers, but his policy choices are more like Langley’s Folly. The President has invested billions of taxpayer dollars in “green” energy companies only to see them file for bankruptcy or fall into dire financial straits. In the wake of Langley’s Folly, Washington prudently stopped funding for the failed airplane experiment. Incredibly, in response to President Obama’s failing green energy program, he wants to double down on taxpayer bets in energy from renewable sources like solar and geothermal.

      https://www.rpc.senate.gov/policy-papers/obamas-folly-gambling-billions-on-green-energy

      1. Out in the Mojave desert this last weekend miles of solar panels right on the ground with native plants growing under and in some cases over them. Who’s going to weed that ? This is Joshua tree country everything is spiny.

        1. When I was taking care of foreclosed properties all over northern Arizona, it was mostly desert. Yet I would see weeds 6 foot high. It doesn’t take much water to make that happen. Not only do you have to cut it down (and rake it up, haul it off and pay to dump it), you have to come back regularly to keep it down. Of course you could spray the heck out of it with poison, but there goes the green deal.

        2. Invasive weed species like Kochia and Russian Thistle are able to thrive in the most arid, sun baked and windy environments.

          2. “vinegar”

            Going to need truck loads of it. Each of these things sprout thousands of seeds, and it’s windy here more often than not. There’s a former K-Mart store, and their black asphalt parking lot has cracks with Kochia growing in the exposed soil. It so hot in the summer that people carry their dogs to spare their feet, yet that kochia is a rich dark green and standing tall while everything else appears bleached by sunlight. If there’s reincarnation forget about dandelions, it’s kochia all the way!

  13. I don’t have a subscription, but “another” condo reversion in Seattle:

    Another condo switch: 244 U Village units now leasing as apartments

    ‘U-Place began construction in a very different market than the one in which it’s opening today. The leasing website is live, and there’s a phased certificate of occupancy for U-Place, a recently completed six-story, 244-unit project at 4609 Union Bay Place N.E., just east of University Village.’

    https://www.djc.com/news/re/12136006.html

    Wa happened to my red-hotcakes Seattle?

    1. The thing is that U-Village is very very trendy (it is where the apple and microsoft stores are). It is close to the University of Washington campus and a very nice, albeit small, nature reserve. If people were thinking (ha ha) this would be shock to many.

      The 2 br/bath goes for $3800 – so quite pricey. But a 1000 less than the new luxury apartments in South Lake Union. By next spring – who knows.

  15. ‘Editor: On a trip to Northern Virginia this weekend to visit family, I noticed how Loudoun County and Leesburg are getting overloaded with very ugly townhouses.’

    ‘I voted for a number of townhouse developments during my 10 years as a Loudoun supervisor and Leesburg councilmember, so I have no qualms with this kind of housing.However, I have never seen such ugly developments in this county in the 18 years I lived there.’

    ‘Dark gray, dark brown and urine-colored yellow exteriors. … Big garish windows you’d see in office parks.Flat roofs with no pitches. The townhomes at One Loudoun and at Sycolin and Belmont Ridge roads resemble Soviet-era housing.’

    https://loudounnow.com/2020/10/26/letter-ken-reid-norfolk/

      1. Nor will you. The last thing the globalists want to do is to spook the suburban matron D-vote this close to the election. The BLM-Antifa “protests” in the suburbs join the ever-growing list of verboten topics to be consigned to the Memory Hole. Only citizen journalists are covering such non-Narrative Compliant stories, until they get shadow banned or de-platformed by the oligopoly’s creepy Orwellian tech companies, that is.

        1. Repost from the last thread (Wall Street Journal):

          “Facebook executives have said they would only deploy the tools in dire circumstances, such as election-related violence, but that the company needs to be prepared for all possibilities, said the people familiar with the planning.

          The potential moves include an across-the-board slowing of the spread of posts as they start to go viral and tweaking the news feed to change what types of content users see, the people said. The company could also lower the threshold for detecting the types of content its software views as dangerous.

          Deployed together, the tools could alter what tens of millions of Americans see when they log onto the platform, diminishing their exposure to sensationalism, incitements to violence and misinformation, said the people familiar with the measures. But slowing down the spread of popular content could suppress some good-faith political discussion, a prospect that makes some Facebook employees uneasy, some of the people said.”

          https://archive.fo/UpBdW

          1. “Do you realize that the past, starting from yesterday, has been actually abolished? If it survives anywhere, it’s in a few solid objects with no words attached to them, like that lump of glass there. Already we know almost literally nothing about the Revolution and the years before the Revolution. Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book has been rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street and building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And that process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right. I know, of course, that the past is falsified, but it would never be possible for me to prove it, even when I did the falsification myself. After the thing is done, no evidence ever remains. The only evidence is inside my own mind, and I don’t know with any certainty that any other human being shares my memories. Just in that one instance, in my whole life, I did possess actual concrete evidence after the event – years after it.” (2.5.14, Winston to Julia)

            George Orwell, “1984”

          2. Facebook executives have said they would only deploy the tools in dire circumstances, such as election-related violence

            Geeze, I read that as “Facebook executives have said they would only deploy the trolls…”

        2. Clashes broke out on New York City’s streets Sunday afternoon as a “Jews for Trump” convoy of hundreds of cars draped with American flags and Trump 2020 banners were attacked by counter protesters.

          ‘Rioters in a neighboring vehicle pepper-sprayed a family of seven, including four children, as they drove with their windows down, reported Fox News.’

          “Immediately the kids started crying and screaming and I jumped out of the car after I was peppered [sic] sprayed as well,” a family member told the news outlet on condition of anonymity.’

          ‘He recalled how he was chased by the attacker who attempted to pepper spray him again, before an officer arrested him.’

          https://www.theepochtimes.com/counter-protesters-attack-jews-for-trump-rally-in-new-york_3552527.html

          Above this is a photo:

          ‘A person is arrested during a march and rally for President Donald Trump on 5th Avenue in New York on Oct. 25, 2020.’

          I didn’t know they were making BLM body armor for the peaceful protestors.

  18. New York Times:

    “Even before the pandemic, colleges and universities were grappling with a growing financial crisis, brought on by years of shrinking state support, declining enrollment, and student concerns with skyrocketing tuition and burdensome debt. Now the coronavirus has amplified the financial trouble systemwide, though elite, well-endowed colleges seem sure to weather it with far less pain.

    Freshman enrollment is down more than 16 percent from last year, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center has reported — part of a 4 percent overall drop in undergraduate enrollment that is taking tuition revenue down with it.

    In a letter to Congress this week, the American Council on Education and other higher education organizations estimated that the virus would cost institutions more than $120 billion in increased student aid, lost housing fees, forgone sports revenue, public health measures, learning technology and other adjustments.”

    http://archive.is/skleN

    $120 billion is that a lot?

    1. Now that we know college courses can be offered online for credit at a small fraction of the cost of in person classroom education and with none of the disease risk, why would anyone want to go back to the high cost on-campus education model?

          1. Bruh, getting close to the really deep pockets only happens at like, 5 schools. If you want your kids to be in like Flynn, you gotta send them to a $100k/yr boarding school on the east coast for HIGH school, keep the sham of deep wealth going that whole time or your kid will be marginalized, THEN you gotta shell out another 4-500k for an Ivy, assuming your kid gets in.

            Tell him to start a plumbing business instead.

          2. $100k/yr boarding school on the east coast for HIGH school

            Phillips Academy Andover or Phillips Exeter Academy

    2. and student concerns with skyrocketing tuition and burdensome debt

      Funny. how getting costs under control and lowering tuition never seems to be an option. I guess that would mean a lot of well paid folks whose work is of little to no value might lose their jobs, and that just won’t do.

    1. I read a comment from some Tesla speculator bragging that he was “up $50 per share since he bought.” This was when the stock was at like $450. It’s at about $415 today. For context, before the stock split, this means he thought it was a good buy at $1,600. These are the kinds of people buying Tesla. This stock is the biggest sham in history.

    2. Stocks tumble as Covid-19 cases surge and stimulus is nowhere to be found
      By Anneken Tappe, CNN Business
      Updated 11:27 AM ET, Mon October 26, 2020
      Investor: The stock market feels like 1999 again
      The Stock Market stands in lower Manhattan on September 02, 2020 in New York City. The Dow gained 454.84 points, or 1.59 percent, to close at 29,100.50. Closing less than 2 percent from an all-time high, the Dow posted its best rally since mid-July and closed.
      (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

      New York (CNN Business) Wall Street is tumbling on Monday as coronavirus, Washington intransigence and earnings weigh on the market.

      US stocks sank at the opening bell in New York, and the selloff gathered pace as the session went on.

      In the late morning, the Dow (INDU) was down more than 700 points, or 2.5%. Not a single Dow stock was in the green. The S&P 500 (SPX) — the broadest measure of the US stock market — fell 2.1%.

      The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which had briefly bounced back from its lows, dropped 1.7%.

      Energy, industrials and financials stocks are the among the worst performers of the day.

      There’s a lot for investors to grapple with: The election is only eight days away, there’s still no new stimulus package and the first look at how the economy fared in the third quarter will be reported on Thursday. Big Tech companies will report earnings this week as well, including Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR).

      While earnings will inject volatility in the tech sector, “on a more macro level, ongoing US stalemate over US fiscal stimulus and the rapidly spreading Covid-19 is going to determine the direction for the wider markets,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Think Markets, in a note.
      …

    3. The Financial Times
      Steer from crisis to recovery with the FT
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US and European stocks slide on worsening Covid outbreaks
      Oil price drop and measures in Italy and Spain to combat virus weigh on sentiment
      Camilla Hodgson in London
      31 minutes ago

      Wall Street followed European bourses sharply lower on concerns a rising number of coronavirus infections will prompt a new wave of social restrictions that will dampen business activity.

      The US benchmark S&P 500 fell 2 per cent in morning trading on Monday. The Vix index rose more than 4 points to 31.6, well above its long-term average of 20, in a sign investors are bracing themselves for flare-ups in volatility in the month ahead.

      US coronavirus case numbers have surged in recent days, with new weekly cases rising the most since a major summer outbreak. In Europe, Italy and Spain announced sweeping measures on Sunday to address a jump in new cases.
      …

    4. DOW 30 -2.63%
      S&P 500 -1.75%
      NASDAQ -2.18%

      Business Insider
      Guggenheim’s Minerd says that the stock market’s calm is merely the eye of a storm — and that rising political and economic turmoil will lead to a big move lower
      Emily Graffeo
      Oct. 23, 2020, 03:57 PM
      Scott Minerd
      Lucy Nicholson/Reuters
      – Scott Minerd said on Friday that the calm in the stock market is not the end of the storm but the eye and that political and economic turmoil would lead to a large move lower.
      – Guggenheim’s global investment chief said the lack of fiscal stimulus before Election Day increased the likelihood of a negative GDP print in the fourth quarter and a “depression” for Main Street.
      – He also said a contested election would cause “political chaos” and a “sharp tightening in financial conditions” due to the uncertainty of who the next president would be.
      – “The eye of the storm is not a place to relax,” he said, “but instead it is an opportunity to prepare for what is to follow.”
      …

    5. That’s the spirit!

      Former Trump advisor Gary Cohn: Markets are down on the ‘100% probability’ that stimulus deal won’t pass before the election
      Ben Werschkul
      Mon, October 26, 2020, 2:47 PM PDT·3 mins read

      On Monday in Washington, the stimulus negotiations marched on as they have most days. The two sides traded charges in dueling Fox News and MSNBC appearances while Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met yet again to go over their differences.

      In the meantime, the markets tanked. The Dow dropped more than 650 points, or 2%. It was the largest decline for the index in 7 weeks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each also retreated sharply.

      A big reason for the slide, according to Gary Cohn, former president and CEO of Goldman Sachs and former White House National Economic Council Director, is the “100% probability” that we are not going to get fiscal stimulus before the election.
      …

  20. “A property owner is suing the Village of North Utica, the town where Illinois’ Starved Rock State Park sits. Property owner Sam Patel says a change in Village law dictates how he does business and who he does business with. And now some property owners are selling their units, even when demand for rentals is high. His 10 rental cabins sit empty. Patel used to book guests through third-party services like Airbnb. But under a new village ordinance enacted in February 2020, he can’t do that anymore unless he gets special approval. And the Village denied his application for that citing zoning issues.”

    “‘I’m crunching the numbers in my head and at the rates they rent it out at, I can’t pay my mortgage, my utilities, insurance with them taking such a big cut,’ says Patel.”

    You got canceled, Sam. Your little Airbnb empire scheme just blew up in your face. Oh well, look at the bright side, you’re going to be an expert in insolvency and bankruptcy. Bahahahahahahaha!!!

  21. I posted this in the last thread and commented on Dr. Jill’s subtle lean and out of view nudge but missed what was pointed out by Redpilled Redhead…

    “She also says Trump once if not twice.”

    MUST WATCH: Joe Biden confuses President Trump with George Bush

    551,405 views•
    Oct 25, 2020

    https://youtu.be/9EMq42gdJQM

    However, I would still like to know if the person signing followed all of this…

    “Four more years of George uh, George uh he uh gonna find ourselves in a position where, if uh Trump gets elected uh, we’re gonna be uh, we’re gonna be in a different world”

    1. “Four more years of George uh, George uh he uh gonna find ourselves in a position where, if uh Trump gets elected uh, we’re gonna be uh, we’re gonna be in a different world”

      This guy is just brilliant.

  22. Comrade Harris cackles with amusement at the stupid questions she has to endure from Real Journalists. The honest answer: Harris, who has no core principles or convictions of her own, will do whatever her globalist puppet masters direct her to do, once senile Joe Biden is trundled off to the nursing home and Harris becomes the titular head of state.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/kamala-harris-laughs-when-asked-if-she-has-socialist-perspective

    Sen. Kamala Harris D-Calif., laughed when asked during an interview Sunday if she would advocate for a “socialist or progressive perspective” if elected.

    CBS News anchor Norah O’Donnell asked Harris the question during a “60 Minutes” interview with her and the Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

    Citing a 2019 ranking from the nonpartisan organization GovTrack, O’Donnell told the vice-presidential hopeful that she is “considered the most liberal United States senator.” She said that Harris has supported the Green New Deal, Medicare-for-all and legalizing marijuana, all policies that Biden has yet to back.

    Harris was then asked if that was a socialist or progressive perspective, leading her to pause for a moment before cracking up.

    “No. No,” she said while laughing. “It is the perspective of– of a woman who grew up– a Black child in America, who was also a prosecutor, who also has a mother who arrived here at the age of 19 from India. Who also, you know, l– likes hip hop.”

      1. I sure can’t. In future Kamala-world you will imagine whatever your betters tell you to imagine, and you will like it, comrade.

    2. “Harris was then asked if that was a socialist or progressive perspective, leading her to pause for a moment before cracking up.”

      New World Norah O’Donnell’s delivery of the question Horse Face Harris knew was coming an hour earlier when they were going over what she would be asked was superlative.

      Right up there with that tough question Biden was blindsided by at the take out ice-cream window last week…

      What flavor is it?

      It’s as if the FBI didn’t even have Hunter’s laptop with references to the “Big Guy” all over it.

  23. The moral hazard of bailing out the banks in 2009 has led to a entire breakdown of society and a decent into la la land.
    Instead of a correction process of what went awry, like what was done in 1929,
    the bail out created a doubling down on fraudulent rigged systems.

    Globalism for instance only looted the USA and transferred the wealth to places like China. Monopolies only serve to create rigged markets and extraction of wealth and opportunity. The wealth disparity created by these rigged economic systems isn’t capitalism but it’s looting. Than racism is blamed rather than the real culprits.
    I was studying a tape on the Great Depression. I was struck with the fact that people were not rioting in the streets over being victimized and loosing their life savings over the Banks closing. .
    In spite of people being the victims of a Wall Street Ponzi Scheme 1929 crash they took the blow with great ability to survive hard times.
    Now you have people who aren’t victims claiming that they are owed the benefit of other people hard work.
    The Commie narrative that the collective is owed free shit from the backs of others labor is looting using equity of outcome social justice nonsense.
    So, the Powers that create the rigged systems aren’t attacked for their looting, but whatever culprits they dream up in their fake new narratives.
    So you have a virus caused by China and fake news blames Donald Trump for the deaths.
    You got Hilary using Russian disinformation to take the heat off her own crimes , yet 21/2 years of Trump and the Russian Hoax. Now you got a lot of evidence that Joe Biden took bribes from Foreign Countries, but no that’s Russian disinformation as fake news tries to bury the truth.
    So nothing but deceit so these power mongers take the heat off the fact they are causing all the damage and class warfare and rigged markets with the Gov in their pocket.
    So, this is where you get Big Corporations donating to Commie rioters who want to take over the USA.
    So, never a discussion about the real problems and how to correct the sell outs by the Politicians that started 23years ago.
    Never allow the discussion to go to the truth so it can be corrected.
    It will be a disaster if Biden wins.

  24. Trumpy at a 10,000+ rally in PA just said that “Barrack Obama can’t even draw flies to his speeches”.🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    1. “Barrack Obama can’t even draw flies to his speeches”.

      I was going to say something about Moochelle Obama being able to draw flies but then I thought I better not.

    2. Havent heard someone go that hard on a mic since Wu Tang Clan’s 7th chamber part 2. Joe, Obama, and the media all getting served lyrical knuckle sandwiches. Dont worry fools, its gluten free lol.

      Orange Dirty Ba5tard in the white house for another 4 years!

  25. Local news, published today:

    “In August and September, Denver police data shows more city residents were issued permits to carry concealed guns than any month since January 2016.

    Last week, we reported on a new Black-owned gun range in Five Points. Almost everyone we spoke to there told us the world just feels more volatile right now. More than ever, co-owner Wanda James told us, people are feeling a need to protect themselves and their families. She said intense political views have merged with visible gun ownership and, sometimes, violence.”

    https://denverite.com/2020/10/26/more-denverites-got-hidden-gun-permits-in-recent-months-than-any-time-in-the-last-five-years/

    After a summer of roadblocks and carjackings, what do you expect?

    1. No one, but not one, could’ve seen this coming. It will be a source of great comfort to FBs, however, to know we’re all in this together.

  29. “Going out to eat with members of your household this weekend? Don’t forget to keep your mask on in between bites. Do your part to keep those around you healthy.”

    — California Governor Gavin Newsom

  31. Oh dear. What if students and their parents who are being scammed by university administrators – forced to pay full tuition for “lockdown learning” – start pushing back against such rackets?

    Fed Up Bristol Students Are Refusing to Pay the University Rent

    https://WWW.VICE.COM/EN/ARTICLE/7K9PKE/BRISTOL-UNIVERSITY-STUDENTS-RENT-STRIKE-PANDEMIC

    After multiple coronavirus outbreaks and “poorly organised” online learning, students at the University of Bristol are threatening to withhold thousands of pounds in rent.

      1. When Al-Shabibi arrived in Bristol from London, he was looking forward to a new chapter of his life. Instead, he is paying thousands of pounds in tuition fees and rent to be stuck inside with coronavirus. “Lots of us have been misled,” he says. “It’s been quite stressful, to be honest, and that’s one the reasons we’re striking.”

        Al-Shabibi is one of over 1,000 students at the University of Bristol who are rent striking this month, refusing to pay rent until the university meets their demands. These include a 30-percent rent reduction, deposit refunds for students who wish to leave and better provision for those who are self-isolating. Campaign group Bristol, Cut the Rent has recruited students using phone-banking and WhatsApp messages, tapping into a widespread sense of anger at the way students have been treated during the pandemic.

  32. We lost US citizen control of the Government. The control was transferred to Globalism, Monopolies, Ponzi Schemes, wealth by debt, as well as transfer of jobs and manufacturing to China , which is all looting.
    Monopolies might be one of the greatest evils , as they destroy capitalism . Monopolies were evil in the 1850’s onward until they were busted in around 1913,
    The Globalism Monopoly is just as evil as the Guilded Age here in the US where workers were like slaves with low wage and horrible working conditions.
    We evolved out of the Monopoly controlled wealth to the few to capitalism and the growth of wealth for the majority post World War II.
    The Politicians sold out to Monopoly control again that’s creating all the problems we have today. And the Monopolies and Globalist get the Gov to pay for the damage they cause, or bail them out. It’s just outright looting .

    1. Monopolies were evil in the 1850’s onward until they were busted in around 1913

      1913 was the birth of the greatest monopoly of all. Perhaps they were just folded in to it?

  33. Regulated capitalism is the most efficient system of wealth creation for the many. It has to have the rule of law (can’t commit fraud, etc.), or can’t allow monopolies to destroy competition or price fix.

    A one World order Monopoly of Globalism and rigged systems is what prevails today. It will just turn Countries into a rich and poor class with Top Down control by a corrupted Gov.
    We need to take back free speech again because this are trying to destroy this as I speak. Take your guns or any defence you have against their hijacking of the Government set forth by the Founders.

  34. Couple of things about the exodus of people from high cost areas to low cost areas

    1. It’s not Covid. It’s the riots and crime, even though the media would never dare say so. Covid will be gone in a year at most. People don’t pick up and uproot their lives for something temporary like that. But rioting is not temporary, Antifa and BLM isn;’t going anywhere and will only become more emboldened in the future. I have tenants who have moved from big coastal cities in 2020 and none of them give a flip about Covid. It’s all about their former homes becoming unlivable due to crime, homelessness, lack of police presence, etc.

    2. I both like and hate this trend. I like it as the value of my real estate holdings have increased substantially. I hate it since I know this influx of big city dwellers will change the the fabric of my little slice of heaven and not in a good way.

    1. So…. who is going to pay off all this big gov debt?

      I remember when a $100B deficit was a big deal and cause for great concern.

      1. Ever since Reagan tripled the debt, no one cares about it.
        “It’s a good idea to make hay while the sun shines.”
        If rates ever move up… USA is in big trouble.

        1. As long as housing prices continue cratering, all is well.

          God Bless President Donald J Trump and God Bless America!

          New Ipswich, NH Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As New England Housing Prices Drop Like a Rock

          https://www.movoto.com/new-ipswich-nh/market-trends/

          As one national broker shared, “This ship is sinking no matter how rosy our press releases are.”

  36. Somehow the false narrative givers would like you to believe that any kind of protection of your Country is Nazism. So, if you don’t like open borders, or you don’t like Globalist Monopolies, or you don’t like your job sent to China, or you don’t want to be taxed into poverty your a racist Nationalist.

    If you like anything American or what the Nation evolved into you could be cancelled by the nuts or the Big Companies now.
    You can’t have free speech because you might be cancelled or punished by the street rioters for social justice who are thug Looters and their Big Money partners.

    Just look at the Big Globalist control freaks talk. They plan to usher in what they call the 4th big industrial Revolution.
    They plan to be the People in charge of the Green New Deal where they control what everyone gets.

    Just watch them talk , and you will see the arrogance, the God complex, the self serving greed, and the evil of wanting to enslave populations to their rule.

    Evil people on every level. Than they love to than claim they are doing everything to benefit the conditions of the poor.

    You can tell evil by the methods they use to gain power.

    1. ClownWorld gonna Clown. Meanwhile, have another #Narrative:

      “Tampon brand Tampax sparked a firestorm on social media after it said that “not all people with periods are women.”

      The company, owned by Procter & Gamble, shared the message on Sept. 15, but it has recently sparked fierce debate and gone viral — with some bashing the company for alienating biological women.

      “Fact: Not all women have periods,” the tweet says. “Also a fact: Not all people with periods are women. Let’s celebrate the diversity of all people who bleed!”

      https://nypost.com/2020/10/26/tampax-under-fire-after-tweeting-not-all-people-with-periods-are-women/

      Is America even a country anymore? It all feels like a sad, sick joke even existing in the same timeline as this ClownWorld.

      Travis Bickle was right.

        1. Right, just WOW.
          This is how you can tell a world going mad. This is the point that they must not be appeased in their insanity. but to be confronted . Enough of all this silly shit.

        1. Man, you’d want to make sure to keep all food far away and high up in the trees, and be armed to the teeth in that little tent in brown bear country.

          1. be armed to the teeth in that little tent in brown bear country. And never ever go to sleep, so that you don’t wake up to the sound of your own skull getting crunched by griz. Maybe arrange with your buddies to post a 24 hour armed guard and a nice bright campfire to light up the area, and pray that your guard stays awake the whole time. Or better yet, stay home.

    2. “Lumber futures …”

      My material supplier explained that to me a few weeks ago when I was pricing what for me is a big job that will start in January.

      They stopped cutting and producing at the end of March because of https://youtu.be/rfh4Mhp-a6U coronavirus, building started again in June, short supply and prices went through the roof. As of a few weeks ago a bunch of product prices had already dropped. I was going to need a bunch of 2 x PT for several thousand feet of framing which was still high but he said it would be down by the time I needed it and it looks like he was right.

    1. As a fiscal conservative, who do I vote for?

      Yeah, that ship has sailed. The cure you want would kill the patient/golden goose so no candidate even pretends to want it any more.

      1. I don’t think any of my “conservative” friends gives a crap about government spending. They’re all major asset holders and are sitting pretty right now. Big, expensive houses, lots of stocks, etc. I’m the only one I really know of who isn’t playing the game.

  40. COVID-19: evidence shows that transmission by schoolchildren is low | Climate Etc.

    https://judithcurry.com/2020/09/10/covid-19-evidence-shows-that-transmission-by-schoolchildren-is-low/#comments

    (snip)

    “Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers’ unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe.

    “While it is evident that school age children can be infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is extremely rare for them to become seriously ill with COVID-19, and their risk of dying as a result of infection is almost zero. The relevant issue is therefore how much children’s contribution to the spread of COVID-19 to adults, by themselves or via other children, is affected by school attendance.

    “A report last month “COVID-19 in children and the role of school settings in COVID-19 transmission” by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control analyses evidence from many countries and throws light on these questions. Some key summary conclusions that it reaches on various important issues are as follows:”

    (Click on the link to read more.)

  41. WARNING! This post has absolutely nothing to do with housing.

    Why I don’t Publish in Peer-Reviewed Journals – The Risk-Monger
    https://risk-monger.com/2020/07/31/why-i-dont-publish-in-peer-reviewed-journals/

    (a snip or two)

    Academic journals have become more a tool in lobbying and activist campaigns than any academic endeavour or knowledge exchange. Journal editors often seek controversial headlines and click-bait rather than sound methodology. Replicability of findings no longer seems to be a valid question or an issue for retraction. University communications departments try to generate buzz and media attention for the smallest of citations. Activist NGOs and tort law firms see a “peer-reviewed article” in an academic journal as pure campaign gold (for the price of silver). But where is the scientific value and integrity in this process?

    The peer review system at the beginning of the millennium was already showing signs of breaking down. As publishing revenues sank in the digital evolution, journals continued to charge more to universities for subscriptions. Some universities staged a boycott of the main journals (particularly Elsevier) leading to a movement toward open access publishing (with two main approaches commonly called green and gold open access).

    With open access, the financial burden shifted towards to author being expected to pay the publication costs. Peer review management fees quickly escalated from below 500 USD to above 2500 USD on average. Many “predatory journals” claim they have a peer review process but are merely “pay-to-play” publishers putting any article online once payment was received. While academics started to focus on impact factors and h-index rankings, as you could imagine, overall quality did not improve as opportunists, activists and B-grade researchers started flooding online journals.

    At the same time, with more academics bowing to the publish or perish mantra, many new journals started to spring up using the online open access models. When Springer started getting into the game, they polluted the quality even further. In the digital world, online vs print did not matter and nothing would stop a predatory journal from releasing thousands of pages in a quarterly.

    Some journals simply published gibberish once the cheque had cleared. It is argued that half of the articles published are not read by anyone. But the cheapening of peer review is not only limited to online organisations with bank accounts in West Africa or the Gulf region. Following the Sokal hoax in the 1990s, three scholars recently got a number of ridiculous articles through peer review in high-profile journals (this prank was known as Sokal Squared).

    Why then do people legitimately play this game? Often academics pay these sharks to pad their bibliography, improve their h-index or raise their ranking in Google Scholar with more (self-generated) citations. Their universities expect a certain number of publications and provide a budget for peer-review publishing fees … so it becomes a meaningless numbers game. They pretend to publish and we pretend to read them.

    (End of snips. Go to the link to read it all.)

    1. This post has absolutely nothing to do with housing.

      It has everything to do with why we should trust voices of authority. Or not.

  42. In California, six people are allowed to attend a Thanksgiving dinner, but 30 are allowed to attend a funeral.

    On November 26th, I plan to host a modest funeral for my dearly departed turkey. Light supper will be provided to my guests.

    1. Here’s your out: Don’t call it a funeral, call it a wake …

      “It is a tradition to serve food at a wake and this could be especially useful, too. The business of the day might leave many people forgetting to eat or feeling exhausted. Despite this, it is important to remember that no one is expecting anything too elaborate from your catering.”

      Alex Gow Funerals › au
      What Food to Serve at a Wake – Alex Gow Funerals

    2. In California, six people are allowed to attend a Thanksgiving dinner, but 30 are allowed to attend a funeral.

      If I lived in California, which I don’t – Allah be praised – I would gather a select group of friends and family on November 26th for a BLM “protest” around what would look to the uninitiated like a table set for Thanksgiving. However, now that I self-identify as a Yemeni lesbian for reparations purposes, I would read a brief statement castigating the palefaced Pilgrim invaders who celebrated the first Thanksgiving, prior to emulating their example.

    3. On November 26th, I plan to host a modest funeral In lieu of flowers, do you want us to bring a side dish or a dessert?

  44. Jerry Jeff Walker (1942 – 2020)

    Mr. Bojangles

    A native of New York, Walker spent his early career as a folkie in Greenwich Village. It was there that he wrote and recorded “Mr. Bojangles,” based on a man he once met in a New Orleans jail cell. Walker’s version was a modest success, cracking the Billboard Hot 100. It was other artists who would make the song one of pop music’s standards, including the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band, who took it to No. 9 in 1971, and Sammy Davis Jr. (1925 – 1990), who regularly performed it in his stage shows.

    Jerry Jeff Walker Live – Mr Bojangles

    https://youtu.be/mDoeUz8vExY

  45. Those peaceful protesting Biden/Harris voters are at it again.

    30 Police Officers Injured During Hours-Long Unrest In Philadelphia After Fatal Police-Involved Shooting

    By Howard Monroe
    October 27, 2020 at 8:44 am

    PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Protesters upset over alleged police brutality took to the streets in Philadelphia overnight. This came hours after police shot and killed a man with a knife in West Philadelphia on Monday afternoon. Officers opened fire when they say the man walked toward them near 61st and Locust Streets, refusing to drop the knife.

    Police say 30 officers were injured, they include a 56-year-old female officer who was hit by a car at 52nd and Walnut Streets. Police say she suffered a broken leg.

    Police say all of the officers injured are in stable condition. Other than the officer with a broken leg, they’ve all been treated and released from the hospital. Police say that most of the officers who were injured were hit with rocks, bricks, and other projectiles.

    Also, at 52nd and Market Streets, a police SUV was set on fire.

    Over 30 people were arrested overnight for various charges, including looting, rioting, and assaulting officers. Businesses looted included pharmacies, clothing stores and restaurants.

    https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/10/27/30-police-officers-injured-during-hours-long-unrest-in-philadelphia-after-fatal-police-involved-shooting/

    1. Headline: US home prices rise at the fastest pace in two years.

      Folsom was loving how they were going up when everyone else was going down. But I’m noticing now they are finally starting to go down just as the headlines say everybody else is starting back up. Hopefully the work from home land rush has about finished here.

      2. What are you seeing in Folsom that indicates a slowdown? Would love to see a slowdown of the bay area migration to Loomis, Newcastle, etc., but so far it seems like there’s just no end in sight.

  50. “Businesses looted included pharmacies, clothing stores and restaurants.”

    Did this website not receive the memo on the Associated Press Style Guide for reporting on “unrest?” The stolen shoes were not looted, they were liberated.

      1. The “after hours shopping” is just a good faith earnest payment. Reparations will be served on a knee with a smile.

  51. I think that what happened was that the Dem Party took over systems such as welfare, school systems, Justice system, Federal Gov. Workers, Health Care system. News, etc.

    So, you got all these agencies that promote a one party system.For instance if a person signs up for welfare they are immediately signed up as a registered Democrat.

    A federal Gov worker is encouraged to vote a one party system.

    Than when you add to that the sell out by Politicians to the Globalist Monopolist , and more and more Big Government getting involved in private business, than rigged markets take over and destroy capitalism.

    In 20 years a lot of damage can be done to Government by the people. As the US Citizens get looted more and are subjected to rigged economic systems and false narratives, Government by the people is taken away.

    And this one party system embraced in the Dem party has no regard for half the Country who objects to this hijacking of the Gov.

    The Resistance has shown themselves in the last 4 years to be.
    Pro Globalist, Pro Monopolies, Pro open borders, Pro Top down control, Pro fake narratives and fake news, Pro One World Order, Pro Commie BS, Pro anti law and order, Pro stacking the Court , Pro ilegals vote , criminals voting and losing voting age to 16, Pro China, Pro killing of industry in US, Pro high taxes, Pro welfare, Pro revision of history, Pro bail outs, and anything that represents a one party hijacking of America and it’s institutions.

    This is no different than a invading force of anti American forces trying to destroy the Trump Voters for daring to want to take back America from their evil hijacking.
    Now, they promote destroying gas and oil, big tax increases,Commie health Care, Big Gov with Globalist puppet masters .
    It’s all a set up to lose government by the people , rights taken away, free speech taken away and people being denied right to vote in their interest.
    They want to take everything from you using false narratives and Commie Social Justice BS.
    Its really very evil this power grab by any means.

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