thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Inventory Has Been Growing Faster Than Sales, And Price Reductions Have Hit Very High Numbers

A report from the Los Angeles Times in California. “If you’re falling behind on rent, don’t just wait for consequences. Your landlord may be open to negotiation. ‘Residents shouldn’t hesitate to reach out to their housing provider,’ agreed Fred Sutton, a senior vice president of public affairs with the California Apartment Assn. ‘Rent rates are collapsing … A housing provider is going to do everything they can to keep you there.'”

From Bisnow on California. “Some of San Francisco’s largest apartment owners are resorting to sizable concessions and lower rents as they compete to lease up their buildings in a market pummeled by the pandemic. Zumper found that the city’s biggest landlords are looking to lure renters with packages ranging from gift cards to 12 weeks of free rent, with the most aggressive deals being offered by the owners of luxury SoMa properties. ‘It’s almost like an arms race of concessions and free rent and so on and so forth,’ Presidio Bay Ventures Managing Director Cyrus Sanandaji said. ‘They’re all competing for the same few renters that are left in the market who are moving around within the market.'”

“Developer Crescent Heights’ 754-unit NEMA San Francisco community in SoMa launched a lineup of offerings for potential residents, each of which includes three months of free rent. Studios at the luxury community also now start at $1,795, one-bedrooms at $2,295 and two-bedrooms at $3,495, representing year-over-year drops of about 30%, 33% and 26%, from $2,558, $3,423 and $4,775, respectively.”

“NEMA Asset Manager Joey Ramos said in a statement occupancy has fallen to 80%. ‘Renters are in a position of power for the first time in a long time,’ he said. ‘Everybody’s offering between eight weeks and 10 weeks free rent, and there’s been a significant drop in rents,’ said Oz Erickson, CEO of Emerald Fund, a developer and also manager of over 1,300 units in S.F. and Oakland. ‘Any cash flow is better than no cash flow as long as you’re covering the variable costs of bringing somebody into a building.'”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “San Francisco is the softest spot in the Bay Area’s mostly booming real estate market, and its condo segment is weakest of all. Inventory has been growing faster than sales, and price reductions — mostly in the condo segment — ‘have hit very high numbers,’ said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst for the Compass. The big reason condos didn’t drop more: Sales of two-bedroom units went up considerably — to 330 from 230 — year over year, while the number of one-bedroom condo sales dropped slightly, to 186 from 183.”

“‘The increase in two-bedroom sales pulled up the overall median condo sales price,’ Carlisle said. When you look at one- and two-bedroom units separately, their median prices fell 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively, ‘which rings much truer.'”

“This shows why looking just at median prices, the point at which half of homes sold for more and half for less, can be misleading. Carlisle found ‘a similar dynamic regarding median house sales prices around the Bay Area in the third quarter.’ The average size of homes sold in the Bay Area in the third quarter ‘jumped virtually everywhere, very generally in the 5% to 10% range. Bigger houses sell for more money, raising the median sales price.’ That’s not a true reflection of market values, or what an individual house might sell for.”

The South Florida Reporter. “Jesse Keenan, an associate professor of real estate at Tulane University, studied Miami-area home prices in 2018 and came to a similar conclusion: Home prices were weakening in the lowest-lying areas. Keenan’s latest study, titled ‘Underwaterwriting,’ examined how lenders handle flood-prone properties. Keenan finds that small banks with more in-depth local knowledge are more likely to offload mortgages by selling them to mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, rather than holding them in their portfolios. His theory: Local banks know local risks well, or at least more intimately than out-of-town lenders.”

“‘They have their ears to the ground,’ Keenan says. ‘They have better soft information. Very local banks are using this soft information to shed risk.'”

“The Wharton team analyzed millions of home sales in Florida and discovered declines in both sales volumes and sales prices in the areas most vulnerable to flooding. ‘Our results suggest that fewer buyers are willing to bear these risks at current market prices, leading to a sharp fall in transaction volumes,’ write study authors Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder.”

“The effects are particularly pronounced in coastal areas of Miami and Tampa, the researchers find. ‘When we really focus in on that slice that has the highest risk, we find that starting in 2013, their home sales volume started to decline year on year,’ Mulder says.”

From Queens News in New York. “The number of apartments available for rent in Queens hit a record high in the borough during the third quarter of this year, according to a new report. During the third quarter of 2020, there were a total of 15,896 rental listings available in Queens, according to StreetEasy. The nearly 16,000 listings marks a record high and an increase of over 41 percent when compared to the third quarter of 2019, the report said.”

“The increase in available units was a great benefit to renters, the report said. Queens saw a near record high of discounted units, with over 26 percent of apartments being rented at a discount in quarter three, StreetEasy said. Rental inventory in Manhattan grew by 44.7 percent, a similar number seen in Brooklyn.”

From WTOP on Virginia. “Arlington County and Alexandria have something in common: rising inventory. Long & Foster attributes that to the Amazon effect. ‘Since people bought homes so aggressively in that area the past two years, the inventory levels are finally seeing some relief, causing them to look like they’ve risen,’ said Larry Foster, president of Long & Foster Real Estate.”

From WAMU on Washington DC. “Lawmakers in D.C. have passed a series of measures to help renters during the pandemic. But some mom-and-pop landlords wonder whether the city will do the same for them. One woman who oversees two properties her parents purchased in D.C. in the 1980s says the city’s eviction ban is forcing her family into an untenable position. Since before the pandemic, they’ve sought to remove a tenant who owes more than $10,000 in rent dating back to last year, court records show. But their case ground to a halt when courts stopped holding eviction hearings mid-March.”

“‘Now we’re just hanging in limbo,’ the woman says. Now the woman says her family is considering selling, but she fears that doing so would contribute to gentrification in the District. ‘You’re placed in the position of having to consider, do you hold onto the property or do you allow one of these developer sharks to come in and buy it?’ she says.”

“‘The narrative is to punish the landlord,’ says a small-time D.C. real estate investor who requested anonymity to avoid backlash from tenant advocates. ‘It just feels like, ‘Suck it up. Figure it out.’ I don’t think they recognize that landlords have to eat, too.'”

From Bloomberg. “Real estate debt investors are stockpiling cash, searching for opportunities to lend to commercial-property owners hurt by the pandemic. Mark Fogel, chief executive officer of Acres Capital LLC, a New York-based commercial property lender, said he’s getting almost twice as many calls from borrowers looking to refinance their debt or get bridge loans to stay afloat than just a few months ago.”

“A flood of distressed deals is widely expected to hit the market in coming months as lenders run out of patience. ‘I’m starting to see lenders just wanting to get paid off, so they’re going to borrowers, saying forbearance is over, time’s up,’ Fogel said. ‘You’ll start to see a lot of that start to happen this last quarter of 2020, heading into 2021, especially on retail and hospitality assets.'”

From Bisnow on Massachusetts. “New Balance’s former world headquarters at 20 Guest St. has been sold for $72M, giving its owner a 228K SF facility near the bustling Boston Landing neighborhood. The sale of the fully leased building represents one of the largest deals in the Boston area recently, said Aaron Jodka, Colliers’ managing director for research and client services in Boston. ‘At $315 per square foot, that’s a pretty good value for the city of Boston,’ Jodka said, adding there has been a lack of recent sales transactions in Boston amid the coronavirus pandemic to compare it to.”

“More than 1M SF of office space in Boston was emptied in the third quarter as near-term demand for office space has been thrown into question. Artemis Managing Director Anar Chudgar said in August that her firm was close to closing on an office building in a gateway city with a discount of up to 30% of its pre-COVID price.”

From The Oregonian. “Oregon’s construction sector fared relatively well in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. Even so, Oregon construction jobs fell by 10% in April and have been slower to bounce back than other industries. Oregon has lost 6,200 construction jobs so far this year, (seasonally adjusted) including a 2,600 job loss just last month.”

“Across the nation, though, the long-range picture for construction is concerning. The monthly Architecture Billings Index is a leading indicator for the construction industry, reflecting projects in the pipeline that could start work in the next year. An index below 50 indicates a decline in billings and a diminished outlook – and the national index fell from 53 in February to 29.5 in April. It settled out at 40 during the summer and remains there, pointing to a protracted decline in building activity.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 95 Comments

  2. ‘This shows why looking just at median prices, the point at which half of homes sold for more and half for less, can be misleading. Carlisle found ‘a similar dynamic regarding median house sales prices around the Bay Area in the third quarter.’ The average size of homes sold in the Bay Area in the third quarter ‘jumped virtually everywhere, very generally in the 5% to 10% range. Bigger houses sell for more money, raising the median sales price.’ That’s not a true reflection of market values, or what an individual house might sell for’

    I’ve got a bunch of articles showing the median is up, and as we see here, the price is down. The REIC admits this to let sellers know they are fooked after lying to everybody previously to scam the last few weak minded gamblers.

      1. “…A rising median is a misleading metric…”

        Yet another scam from the REIConplex, who has consistently refused to publish the mean *and* median numbers.

        As a standalone number the median number is useless and is at best misleading if not published with other supporting numbers such as the mean.

        1. The biggest problem is that measures of central tendency for real estate prices are biased towards whatever is selling like hotcakes. So, for example, if the labor market collapses, sending low-income buyers to the sidelines, then sales will be concentrated among deep pockets with accumulated wealth to spend on a home purchase. This will tend to make a measure of central tendency go up, whether the mean or the median or even a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller, resulting in a misleading statistic that fails to capture collapsing demand in the market segments that stop selling.

  3. ‘Arlington County and Alexandria have something in common: rising inventory. Long & Foster attributes that to the Amazon effect. ‘Since people bought homes so aggressively in that area the past two years, the inventory levels are finally seeing some relief, causing them to look like they’ve risen’

    Jeebus Larry.

    1. Amazon’s decision to pack into an already expensive market with a stressed infrastructure made no sense to me. I had predicted Philadelphia.

      Part of the bubble was everyone deciding they needed to pack into just a few places, leaving damage there in the places that lost jobs and people.

  4. ‘discovered declines in both sales volumes and sales prices in the areas most vulnerable to flooding. The effects are particularly pronounced in coastal areas of Miami and Tampa, the researchers find. ‘When we really focus in on that slice that has the highest risk, we find that starting in 2013, their home sales volume started to decline year on year’

    Yet Tampa and Miami UHS have been saying ‘to the moon Alice!’ all this time.

  5. “If you’re falling behind on rent, don’t just wait for consequences. Your landlord may be open to negotiation. ‘Residents shouldn’t hesitate to reach out to their housing provider,’ agreed Fred Sutton, a senior vice president of public affairs with the California Apartment Assn.

    Or, since you live in a state run by Bolsheviks, you can just freeload to your heart’s content and ignore any communications or pleas for rent from your landlord.

    1. Also from that link:

      ‘Even if your landlord is threatening eviction, you do not need to take the initiative to move out. Although threats of eviction and fear of rent debt piling up “are scary things, we encourage everyone to not give up their leases,” Lanctot said. “A landlord can never obtain possession without going to court,” Campbell said. Because of this, tenants shouldn’t move out unless they want to.’

      That’s the spirit!

  6. ‘They’re all competing for the same few renters that are left in the market who are moving around within the market.’”

    Sounds like a viable long-term road to riches as a wanna-be real estate mogul – NOT!

  7. ‘The narrative is to punish the landlord,’ says a small-time D.C. real estate investor who requested anonymity to avoid backlash from tenant advocates. ‘It just feels like, ‘Suck it up. Figure it out.’

    Suck it up. Figure it out. Stamp yer little feet! You borrowed in a socialist sh$t-hole.

  8. The Donald is certainly good at one thing. Too bad he didn’t use this skill for our entire economy. I guess someone (else) has to pay, and what works for one doesn’t work for all.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/donald-trump-loans-debt-new-york-times/index.html

    “Trump has been similarly effusive about his ability to deal with debt. In a 2016 interview with CBS’s Norah O’Donnell, the billionaire businessman famously said this:”

    “I’m the king of debt. I’m great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me. I’ve made a fortune by using debt, and if things don’t work out I renegotiate the debt. I mean, that’s a smart thing, not a stupid thing.”

    “Pressed by O’Donnell on how he renegotiated his debts, Trump responded: “You go back and you say, hey guess what, the economy crashed. I’m going to give you back half.”

    “Except that’s not quite right in this case, at least according to The New York Times. Rather than renegotiate to pay half of what he owned his lenders on the Chicago project, Trump actually paid, well, next to nothing.”

    Sounds like a good plan for New York’s public debts, Fannie, Freddie, student loans, etc.

      2. THE MAN of his generation. Somehow instead of getting rid of the debt we already had, we ended up with more!

        His generation benefits from inflated asset prices and debts. Millennials, and their children, are screwed. I guess those in between, the back end of the Baby Boom and Gen X, are a mixed bag.

        1. I guess those in between, the back end of the Baby Boom and Gen X, are a mixed bag.

          Not true. Gen X has the highest level of debt of any generation.

          2. GenX was cornholed much more on the jobs side than on the debt side. Sure, GenX did great in their 20s when the internet was booming and Ross was ogling Rachel. But it was after 2000…

            1. That the same internet sent white collar jobs overseas. 2. Major cuts in R&D funding
            3. Manufacturing jobs gone overseas.
            4. Illegal immigrants snapped up all the low-skill jobs
            5. Recessions in 2001 (9/11) and 2008
            6. House prices went to the moon just as GenX was ready to buy. They either bought and got shellacked, or they had to rent and wait (as I did).
            7. Currently, Baby Boomers are “hanging on” to their jobs for 6-7 years longer in order to subsidize their Millennial kids. Those jobs should have gone to GenX, or the boomer hung on so long that the jobs will retire with them in the COVID recession.
            8. Social Security calculated to go to pot almost exactly the year I would retire.
            9. Bonus points for being TOTALLY ignored by the marketers and media as Boomers and Millennials suck all the oxygen out of the newsroom.

            My one consolation as GenX is that I will have prime choice in my 55+ living. They will be begging for people.

          3. Social Security calculated to go to pot almost exactly the year I would retire.

            Don’t know that it predicts the future, but this was my conclusion for myself as far back as the 70s.

            my 55+ living

            I hope you’re not imagining sheltered incapacity at age 55!

          5. “…and Ross was ogling Rachel.”

            I just watched an old Naomi Watts movie last night. She’s taken good care of herself; 2020 is no different.

      3. You no doubt identify with a corrupt pedo who cant remember what planet he’s on – the perfect embodiment of the demoncrat party at this point in time. Maybe he’ll make Hunter secretary of Health (crack, meth) and Human Services (heh heh) in the alternate universe he lives in where he magically becomes president even though he has virtually no support outside of the corrupt media, lol!

        #YouVotedForAPedo

  9. ‘Any cash flow is better than no cash flow as long as you’re covering the variable costs of bringing somebody into a building.’”

    Um…what happens if you can’t collect enough rent to cover your costs each month?

    1. Um…what happens if you can’t collect enough rent to cover your costs each month?

      Just wait for appreciation to bail you out?

    2. Boo:
      Variable cost pricing in business is common when things are going to hell. The goal is to hang on until your competitors fold. Hopefully your pockets are deeper or fixed costs lower. Mortgage lending is very cyclical and variable cost pricing occurred several times during my career. From memory, 2005 and 2009-10 come to mind as years this strategy was used.

        1. It’s a company, most likely an illiquid company at the time not an “asset That can be immediately sold”.
          But yes, those will high fixed costs and or a Parent company without deep pockets, or a parent that isn’t interested in keeping the business alive, will die. Some survive.

  10. ‘An index below 50 indicates a decline in billings and a diminished outlook – and the national index fell from 53 in February to 29.5 in April. It settled out at 40 during the summer and remains there, pointing to a protracted decline in building activity’

    Somebody’s been a lion.

  11. During the third quarter of 2020, there were a total of 15,896 rental listings available in Queens, according to StreetEasy. The nearly 16,000 listings marks a record high and an increase of over 41 percent when compared to the third quarter of 2019, the report said.”

    Is that a lot?

    1. Not in a place as big as Queens. There are 2.3 million people there, more than many states.

      But there are entire sections of the market sites like Streeteasy don’t cover.

      1. These units aren’t bringing in any cash. And consider a big chunk of occupied units have non-paying tenants. How long can that go on?

        1. You’re looking at this all wrong, Ben. From a collectivist perspective, think of the indescribable joy landlords must derive from the charitable act of providing deadbeats with free shelter.

        2. Next step is for the building owners to stop paying their mortgages.

          New York City is full of 100-year old buildings. A huge share of Brooklyn was built in the 1920s, and a huge share of Queens was built in the 1940s through the 1960s.

          Many of these older buildings are owned by small time real estate investors. Some immigrants, some long time neighborhood residents.

          The question is whether the big guys will undercut them, or will be forced to hold out by their financial arrangements. For now the new buildings are empty, and the old ones are occupied — albeit not always by paying tenants.

  13. One woman who oversees two properties her parents purchased in D.C. in the 1980s says the city’s eviction ban is forcing her family into an untenable position. Since before the pandemic, they’ve sought to remove a tenant who owes more than $10,000 in rent dating back to last year, court records show. But their case ground to a halt when courts stopped holding eviction hearings mid-March.”

    Washington D.C. has voted more than 90% Democratic since at least the early ’80s. Anyone who would “invest” in rental property in a progressive-maladministered city is an idiot, pure and simple.

    1. Anyone who would “invest” in rental property in a progressive-maladministered city is an idiot, pure and simple.

      They probably figured that their tenants jobs with the government were fire proof.

    2. Thats her fault, you cant play games with tenants, they have the money for other things like toys for the kids on xmas…….or a new sexi-truxx when the bus line is just down the street.
      ………in rent dating back to last yea

  15. ‘Now the woman says her family is considering selling’

    Good luck with that.

    ‘but she fears that doing so would contribute to gentrification in the District. ‘You’re placed in the position of having to consider, do you hold onto the property or do you allow one of these developer sharks to come in and buy it?’

    Again, the vampire squid victim.

    1. Forgive my misty eyes. Such a moral dilemma – take the money and run, or stick around and watch your neighborhood descend into a Third World dystopia. Decisions, decisions….

    2. do you allow one of these developer sharks to come in and buy it?

      Hahah…”allow”. Before this is over your greatest dream will be a check from them and a chance to try to forget all this ever happened.

  16. Want to be menaced, harrassed and robbed during an evening shopping trip with no police to intercede?

    Vote for Biden

        1. I’m not saying what she did, what she saw, what she knows, or posting any links. But she is in fact, the Big Guy’s granddaughter, and Real Journalists can’t hide it much longer.

          #SayHerName

  17. The stock market has put in a top and an ‘enormous’ bubble has already burst, says David Einhorn
    Provided by Dow Jones
    Oct 28, 2020 6:55 AM PDT
    By William Watts

    The top is in for the U.S. stock market after an “enormous” bubble in technology stocks popped last month, Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn warned in a letter dated Oct. 27 to investors reviewed by MarketWatch.

    The S&P 500 index closed at a record 3,580.84 on Sept. 2, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite posted an all-time closing high of 12,056.44. Stocks subsequently pulled back in September and a new round of COVID-19-related jitters were blamed for another downdraft that saw the S&P 500 erase its October gains early Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 500 points.

    Einhorn acknowledged that Greenlight had “prematurely identified” the bubble in a 2016 warning, one he put down in part to the notion that the height of the 1999-2000 bubble was a once-in-a-career experience and that investors wouldn’t repeat “that level of insanity.”

    “Clearly, we were mistaken,” he said.

    Bubbles, meanwhile, tend to topple under their own weight as all investors finally hop in, short sellers cover, and the “last buyer has bought (or bought massive amounts of weekly calls),” he wrote.

    “The decline starts and the psychology shifts from greed to complacency to worry to panic,” Einhorn said.
    …

      1. What do 10-year Treasury yields stuck below 1 percent portend for U.S. economic growth over the next ten years!?

          1. The bigger issue, Dalio said, is whether the country can be brought together. Capitalists “understand productivity and so on, but they don’t know how to divide the pie that well. And socialists or those that are more of the left have a problem producing as much the increase in productivity.”

            The problem with “dividing the pie” (as in giving people free pie) is that the incentive to bake more pies is reduced. At some, there is no incentive to bake more pies or worse, to even keep baking as many as before.

          2. In a nutshell, bonds are worth beans and cash is trash. So there’s nowhere safe to stash your loot anymore.

          3. In a nutshell, bonds are worth beans and cash is trash.

            Better cash that depreciates 2% a year than stocks that can drop double digits in a crash

          4. S&P 500 closed down 3.52% today.

            I sold off everything last week and am now 100% cash and ammo, because I KNOW THINGS…

          5. Apt, I thought you had sold out months ago. I still have some in stocks, but it was stuff I bought when DOW was 18500, so I’m ok for now.

    2. “Einhorn acknowledged that Greenlight had “prematurely identified” the bubble in a 2016 warning, one he put down in part to the notion that the height of the 1999-2000 bubble was a once-in-a-career experience and that investors wouldn’t repeat “that level of insanity.” “Clearly, we were mistaken,” he said.

      Sounds like what I thought about the 1980s housing bubble in the Northeast and California.

      1. “Sounds like what I thought about the 1980s housing bubble in the Northeast and California.”

        I guess nobody could have seen a gargantuan U.S. residential and commercial real estate bubble from coast-to-coast coming?

        Not to mention a real estate mania of international scope and limitless duration?

    3. Has the Fed decided to stand back and stand by on the current stock market rout? I thought Quantitative Easing was Unlimited during COVID-19?

    4. DOW 30 -3.43%
      S&P 500 -3.53%
      NASDAQ -3.93%

      Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller is said to be shorting the US dollar – and he expects a Democratic sweep this election to hurt stocks in the coming years
      Shalini Nagarajan
      Oct. 28, 2020, 11:09 AM
      – American billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller is betting that the US dollar will weaken, and expects a Democratic ‘blue wave’ this election to be a long-term drag on stocks, Bloomberg reported.
      – At a virtual conference on Tuesday, the hedge-fund manager said higher taxes and inflation will hurt equities in the coming years.
      – “We have borrowed so much that I’m skeptical that three to five years out that equities will give us any kind of return,” Druckenmiller said at the Robin Hood Investors Conference.
      – He expects retail investors to put their money in beaten-down stocks in the travel industry, including airlines and cruise lines, in the first quarter, while technology stocks will pare some recent gains.
      …

  18. “’The decline starts and the psychology shifts from greed to complacency to worry to panic,’ Einhorn said.”

    So, where are we now?

    “Einhorn said that if the call is correct, investor sentiment is shifting from greed to complacency.”

    So next up after complacency is worry and after that comes panic.

    Stay tuned and stay liquid, we have a ways to go.

  19. During the Great Depression they would just throw people out in the street with all their furniture. Some of these renters lost all their savings when the banks closed.
    You look at all the victims of that Ponzi Scheme Wall Street Crash, yet people weren’t rioting in the streets or looting. They went into survival mode rather than lash out.
    It really is amazing, but today what would people do?

    1. Well, they didn’t Burn, Loot, Murder because they knew there would be consequences, unlike today. Anyway, there were no Foot Locker stores back then.

      1. Actually, we say quite a bit of what we are starting to see now in the 1930s.

        In the farm belt, gangs of armed men would disrupt attempts to auction off people’s farms.

        In cities you had people who would sign a lease with a couple of months free, and skip out after three months of not paying, and sign another lease. Since they had no money landlords didn’t bother pursuing people in court.

        And you had more violence, with people sometimes rooting for the criminals (Bonnie and Clyde, etc).

        2. Larry,
          I have read about the stuff your talking about, but in general based on the abject poverty, people weren’t burning and looting and rioting. Sometimes they would steal some food..
          I’m just saying considering how dire the situation was for most part law and order was maintained. A lot of people were living homeless.

  20. Want to be targeted, doxxed and harrassed for your faith and attending a house of worship of your choice interfered with?

    We’re half way there.

    Round it out and vote for Biden.

    1. The MSM is practicing its usual journalistic omertà regarding BLM thugs harassing Jewish residents of Philadelphia last night, accusing them of belonging to the “Synagogue of Satan.” The few citizen journalists who have reported this on Twitter can expect to be de-platformed in short order.

  22. I always thought Ted Cruz was a Goldman Sachs stooge – his wife is a senior official at the company – but gotta give credit where credit is due: he is one of the few members of the Republicrat duopoly who isn’t giving the globalist oligarchs and their media giants a free pass when it comes to their censorship of any information that doesn’t advance The Narrative. Dorsey and his ilk are the “domestic enemies” of the Constitution the Founding Fathers warned us would pose the greatest threat to the Republic.

    https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-ted-cruz-grills-jack-dorsey-for-censoring-the-new-york-post

      1. Congress doesn’t have the power to indict. Consider what you see as grandstanding is honest frustration expressed most often by people trained to make strong and persuasive legal arguments.

  24. Oh dear. A Real Journalist who was assaulted by BLM thugs reports the mob was so anti-white that even their Antifa comrades had to hold a separate protest so they wouldn’t get their asses beat. Color his career over and done for such a flagrant deviation from The Narrative.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/breaking-reporter-philadelphia-says-black-lives-matter-rioters-specifically-targeting-attacking-white-people/

    Shaffer added in a subsequent tweet that “they were specifically targeting and attacking white people tonight in Philadelphia.”

    “It was clear, if you were white, you weren’t welcome,” the tweet continued. “That’s why Antifa had their own demonstrations in a separate part of the city.”

    1. It seems like most whites who avoid living in communities of color do so not due to racism, but to avoid racially motivated black on white violence.

      1. It seems like most whites who avoid living in communities of color do so not due to racism, but to avoid racially motivated black on white violence.

        ^^This.

      2. Bear there was never any white flight that’s just a s big a Lie as Mike brown going to college.
        What really happened is parents saw the next generation of kids on a jail track not a college track so they moved and black parents who cared about their kids moved too. So who were left behind? Thats what we see today.

    2. “Im trying to get out of here, but the chaos seems endless and I can’t find a place to get a ride share to come get me”

      What, there is no armored Uber?

  25. “You’ll start to see a lot of that start to happen this last quarter of 2020, heading into 2021, especially on retail and hospitality assets.”

    Let’s hope. I see the market freeze as the product of three things:

    1) The long term abundance of greater fools (buy the dip).

    2) The precedent of bailouts.

    3) The prospect of zero or negative interest rates long term.

    4) The belief, by some, that this is all about the virus, and it will be “back to normal” eventually.

    Instead, you have a cyclical bubble.

    You have a negative long term trend — each generation of Americans being poorer than the one before, and the country going broke due to decades of current account deficits.

    And you have structural change that first inflated the prices of real estate in selected locations to unsustainable highs, and is now causing the justifiable difference in price between places to fall.

    The deals I saw put the value of commercial buildings at zero. The leases were valued like bonds. In some places, the value of land (being in that place) soared. The buildings? Not worth much.

    Now bankruptcies put the value of leases in question, and structural change puts the inflated value of land in question.

  26. https://www.globest.com/2020/10/28/where-the-value-declines-will-be-the-worst/

    “The Moody’s Analytics (CPPI) Commercial Property Price Index projects similar declines. From peak to trough, values are expected to fall 10.6% from multifamily, 23.2% for office, 31.6% for retail and 9.7% for industrial.”

    “Others don’t think values will fall this far. The Pension Real Estate Association suggests that owners and managers of institutional-grade commercial properties expect values to fall only 4.9% in 2020 and zero in 2021 after adjustments are made for capital expenditures. That figure is much lower than the approximately 30% discount opportunistic buyers are expecting.”

    The Vanguard REIT Index was down that much during the spring, before the Fed stepped in and started buying corporate bonds. There were 30 to 50 percent declines in the early 1990s — plus an inflation rate that was higher than today.

    “By comparing appraisals completed after April 1, 2020, for newly specially serviced assets to the values reported at underwriting, Moody’s Analytics and CWCapital was able to calculate price declines. Hotels saw a median value decline of 30%, with the largest individual declines in full and limited service. Retail experienced a median decrease of 25%, with the most significant drop in malls. Mixed-use centers experienced 35% declines, with urban centers getting hit the hardest.”

    “Moody’s Analytics and CWCapital expect transaction volume to remain muted through early 2021, depending on how the economic data, CRE fundamentals and the global economic recovery plays out.”

    There is that early 2021 again. Maybe the stock market will beat CRE back to sanity after all.

Comments are closed.