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If One Person Drops Their Price, It’s Kind Of A Race To The Bottom

A report from CTV News in Canada. “A Canadian website with about 9,000 residential rental listing in Toronto said the pandemic has created an unprecedented market for renters, with many landlords offering tenants major incentives. One listing on the website advertises free rent until 2021. ‘It’s crazy. We’ve never seen anything like it. The stock market refers to this as a black swan event, where you can’t predict it. A once in a life time kind of thing,’ content director Paul Danison with Rentals.ca told CTV News Toronto.”

The Toronto Star. “When Jean-Claude Demarchi recently rented out his family’s condo on Yonge Street, he didn’t get anywhere close to what he’d hoped for. Before the pandemic hit, he figures he would have been able to rent it out for $3,100 to $3,500 per month — but he had to drop the price to $2,800 to find a reliable tenant. ‘I just wanted it off my hands, since I was taking on a mortgage in Liberty Village,’ said Demarchi.”

“In some Toronto neighbourhoods, rents have plummeted by more than 16 per cent in a year. The confluence of new construction and COVID-19 has produced twice as many condo rental listings in the GTA as last quarter and the highest vacancy rates for newer — 2005 or later — purpose-built rental units (apartments built for rent, not ownership) in a decade.”

“Between last quarter and this one, the number of condominiums listed for rent in the GTA doubled to 23,388 units. Urbanation anticipates at least 20,000 additional condo units to be completed this year. ‘In the past, landlords would have had a choice of renters, but that ship has sailed,’ said Ipekian, owner of Andrew Ipekian Real Estate Group. ‘Some landlords are nervous about giving renters a lower rate and getting locked in, but they don’t want their places to go empty.'”

From Now Toronto. “Dana Senagama, a Toronto economist at the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, says the trend of more units hitting the long-term rental market started in late 2019. Then, the city announced stricter Airbnb regulations that allow people to list their principal residence on short-term rental sites. ‘We started to see a lot of these investor-held units being offloaded onto the market. The investors were trying to sell it or they were going to list it as a long-term rental,’ she says. ‘Then came COVID, and then it kind of compounded everything that already has been taking place.'”

“Geordie Dent, the executive director of the Federation of Metro Tenants’ Association, says negotiations will be easier if you moved into your place recently. ‘Landlords haven’t started reducing rent out of the goodness of their heart. They’re doing it because they see the market has changed,’ he said.”

From Morningstar Canada. “John Pasalis, President of Realosophy is here today to share his thoughts. I think a lot of people were looking at this rapid growth in sales and prices and we’re thinking, Oh, my God, this is a bubble. So, if you are a renter, I mean – yeah, I mean certainly there is a lot more value now, because rents are down 15% to 20%, and it’s a not bad deal. I mean would you spend $600,000 to buy a condominium or just rent that same condo for $1,700 or $1,800 a month. I mean $1800 a month is not lot like a bad deal, which means that for investors, it’s probably not the best time to be buying. I mean you’re paying – you know yesterday’s or today’s peak prices in a market where rents are down 15% – 20%, so why – I mean why would you rush to do that?”

The Globe and Mail. “Many people who keep watch over Canada’s real estate market are looking at the rising numbers of condos for sale in downtown Toronto and wondering what impact that swelling inventory will have on the psychology of buyers and sellers. Scott Ingram, a real estate agent with Century 21 Regal Realty Inc., says the ‘new listings’ statistic is showing a lot of churn happening behind the scenes. Nearly half of ‘new’ listings for condo apartments and condo townhouses in the 416 area code last month were actually relistings of the same property, he says. The number of listings cancelled each month has been climbing since April to reach 2,529 in September.”

“When the new-listings number spikes, Mr. Ingram views that as a sign that agents are trying different strategies and prices. ‘My overall hypothesis is, when the market’s hot, no one needs to relist because your Plan A always works,’ he says. ‘Agents are having to go to Plan B and Plan C in all of this.'”

“Sellers in the downtown condo market are suddenly battling on many fronts. Meanwhile, changes to short-term rental regulations mean that some landlords who rented out their units on platforms such as Airbnb no longer have that option. Some owners are fleeing the city and selling their units because they choose to; some investors are listing units for sale because they can no longer afford to carry them as rents decline amid falling demand. All the uncertainty is keeping some potential buyers on the sidelines as they wait to see if prices will fall.”

“In September, in the 416 area code, the ratio of cancelled listings to sales stood above 140 per cent. Halfway through October, condo relistings as a percentage of sales reached 163. ‘It’s getting worse,’ Mr. Ingram says. ‘It’s noticeably creeping up.'”

“Mr. Ingram believes some of the pent-up buyer demand left over from the spring shutdown has now been spent. ‘There’s way more inventory now.’ Mr. Ingram is advising sellers to be realistic about prices. In areas with high inventory, they can’t expect to match the price their neighbours achieved in March. Mr. Ingram says properties may sit until one motivated seller – perhaps they lost their job or they can’t afford to carry a unit with negative cash flow – caves and sells for less.”

“‘If one person drops their price, it’s kind of a race to the bottom. You don’t want to be the person chasing the prices down,’ he says.”

The Georgia Straight. “No one can doubt that the West Vancouver home rests on solid ground. According to the listing for 5235 Gulf Place, the three-level residence was ‘masterfully built from the existing rock face’ in the waterfront area. Though the home was carved on rock, its price is not set in stone. According to tracking by Zealty.ca, the 6,376-square-foot residence was listed by Engel & Volkers Vancouver on August 10, 2020 for $14,998,000.”

“The listing was terminated on September 15. A new listing was made by the same realty agency on the same day for a reduced price of $11,998,000. On October 21, Zealty.ca, a real-estate information site operated by Holywell Properties, recorded another price reduction, amounting to $2,198,000. The current selling price of 5235 Gulf Place is now $9,800,000, down by $5,198,000 from its summer tag.”

From Global News. “City of Calgary administration is recommending councillors hold off on approving any of 11 new communities a group of developers is proposing at a city committee. Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi said he will listen to each business case with an open mind, but will have some hard questions for developers. ‘I think my colleagues on council and land developers need to really answer the question, why in the world would this be a good time to add to an already dangerous oversupply which would risk destabilizing the entire housing market and popping a bubble?’ Nenshi asked.”

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  1. ‘Before the pandemic hit, he figures he would have been able to rent it out for $3,100 to $3,500 per month — but he had to drop the price to $2,800 to find a reliable tenant. ‘I just wanted it off my hands, since I was taking on a mortgage in Liberty Village’

    That’s the spirit Jean-Claude!

    2. “I just wanted it off my hands, since I was taking on a mortgage in Liberty Village”

      Couldn’t be a worse time to be leveraged. BTW, how’s the weather in Toronto…other than cold?

      1. There are 4 condo towers being finished in liberty village with ‘owners’ now moving in. He probably bought this 1.5years ago thinking he would get 20% appreciation … And basically free downpayment.

        It hit 50 today in Toronto with a lot of sun …. So everyone got some exercise.

        1. “It hit 50 today in Toronto with a lot of sun …. So everyone got some exercise.”

          Sounds nice. It was partly cloudy and very chilly here, but I donated blood today, so no fitness riding.

          We’re supposed to have cloudless skies and sun tomorrow, so I’ve got my Assos cold weather riding gear hanging in the bathroom. Fingers crossed!

  2. ” … why in the world would this be a good time to add to an already dangerous oversupply which would risk destabilizing the entire housing market and popping a bubble?’ Nenshi asked.”

    Why in the world not? Let developers do what they do best — overbuild. Every young family looking to buy their first house will thank you Mr. Mayor.

    1. Franklin, MA may be soft, but I’m looking for a place in central New Hampshire so as to get out of Massachusetts.
      Pretty much anything under 4ooK in move in condition is going for multiple offers after mere days on the market. From the looks of it, a lot of “family type” second homes with deferred maintenance are hitting the market and selling fast. It isn’t going to last but kind of makes sense – the payment is about the same as a 2 bdrm apt in Boston – even with the recent softness in rents.

      Me, it looks like I’ll have to wait until after the turn of the year when mortgage deferrals expire and some comps are changed at the margins.

      1. I posted a couple of times last year about the housing bubble in NH when I was out there. Condos in renovated school buildings in Portsmouth on the market for 800k. Think about the mortgage payment on top of the condo fees and property taxes to live in a condo in Portsmouth. But the concept of objective asset valuation has been thoroughly expunged from public consciousness by central bank policies. The average person today would pay a billion dollars for an average house as long as someone would lend them the money and they could be convinced they can make the payments. As impossible as it seems, they can still push the current record median house price higher. Push long term rates under 2% and another swarm of buyers will hop on the property ladder.

        1. “Think about the mortgage payment on top of the condo fees and property taxes to live in a condo in Portsmouth.”

          Indeed, and it happens every thirty days!

        2. The average person today would pay a billion dollars for an average house as long as someone would lend them the money and they could be convinced they can make the payments.

          It’s true. They’re already convinced it will go up in price after they buy it. The only missing ingredient is the availability of a mortgage at 0% interest. Or preferably a bit less.

          1. It’s true.

            Sorry. Expecting someone to pay back just the principle on a loan 10x their yearly pay is ridiculous. 20,000 times income?

          2. Sorry.

            He was talking about their thought process and what they could be convinced of. A touch of negative interest would solve the problem you bring up.

    2. The first time I heard this I was in 1977 while I was visiting friends at Dean Junior College (now Dean College) in Franklin, MA. I never forgot that weekend or this album, the 2 ft. homemade Plexiglas bong my friend had in his dorm room, or the girl I met there that weekend named believe it or not, Sally.

      Sailin’ Shoes- Hey Julia- Sneakin’ Sally Through The Alley: Robert Palme

      https://youtu.be/GNw8U4aCgjE

  5. ‘It’s crazy. We’ve never seen anything like it. The stock market refers to this as a black swan event, where you can’t predict it.

    The contrarians here at the HBB have been predicting it for a long time coming, Realtor Boy. You’d have to be willfully blind not to see this train wreck in the making.

  6. ‘Landlords haven’t started reducing rent out of the goodness of their heart. They’re doing it because they see the market has changed,’ he said.”

    C’mon, greedy landlords. I wanna be wooed. Concessions won’t cut it. I want sawin’ and slashin’ on muh rent.

    1. But the landlord’s taxes are not expected to follow the same trajectory especially with the state’s covid19 response and the unemployment payment commitments.

  7. “Many people who keep watch over Canada’s real estate market are looking at the rising numbers of condos for sale in downtown Toronto and wondering what impact that swelling inventory will have on the psychology of buyers and sellers.

    Buyers are going to be as rare as work boots at a Joe Biden rally.

        2. Based on polls. According to the poll-based map at electoral-vote.com, Biden will take back the upper midwest and win in a landslide. Senate is predicted to be Dem 54-45.

          Yeah, that’s too optimistic, but even if half of it is fraudulent, there’s still enough there for a Biden win. Sure, Trump is getting the crowds, but libs are in hiding. I’m not going to underestimate the hatred for Trump. Dems will not vote Green or not-vote in protest like they did last time. And who knows what is going on with the mail-in voting. However, I think voters will skip the mail and use a drop box. That’s what I did.

          However, if Biden does win, I predict that Congress will be shellacked in 2022.

          1. Politics is about finding someone else to blame for the the consequences of future selling by Generation Greed in general, and the executive/financial class and political/union class in particular.

            If Biden wins and the Democrats take the Senate, there will be Democrats in charge of everything from the top down. There will be no where for them to hide. I wouldn’t say there were to blame for a bi-partisan crime decades in the making, but most people aren’t that sophisticated.

            Their only strong card: no one is voting for Biden, they are voting against Trump. Unlike Obama and Trump, he would be coming in with no expectations. They just keep lowering the bar for the serfs, one economic cycle after another.

          3. “…but libs are in hiding.”

            Indeed, hiding from the Antifa and BLM thugs who want to strip them of their homes, jobs and possessions.

          6. even if half of it is fraudulent

            Taking something you know to be a lie and splitting the difference to eyeball the truth is quite foolish.

          8. “I strongly suspect that the polls are even more skewed than last time.”

            Read somewhere that only 2% respond to pollster’s calls. 98% either don’t answer or don’t complete the whole survey. Have you noticed some of the poll questions, they take a minimum of 15/20 minutes to complete them. Not sure I will sit thru that long.

  8. The current selling price of 5235 Gulf Place is now $9,800,000, down by $5,198,000 from its summer tag.”

    A good start, greedheads, but I’m thinking let’s take our hot tub time machine price back to oh, say, 1987.

  9. “Between last quarter and this one, the number of condominiums listed for rent in the GTA doubled to 23,388 units.

    Is that a lot?

  10. From Morningstar Canada. “John Pasalis, President of Realosophy is here today to share his thoughts. I think a lot of people were looking at this rapid growth in sales and prices and we’re thinking, Oh, my God, this is a bubble. So, if you are a renter, I mean – yeah, I mean certainly there is a lot more value now, because rents are down 15% to 20%, and it’s a not bad deal. I mean would you spend $600,000 to buy a condominium or just rent that same condo for $1,700 or $1,800 a month. I mean $1800 a month is not lot like a bad deal, which means that for investors, it’s probably not the best time to be buying. I mean you’re paying – you know yesterday’s or today’s peak prices in a market where rents are down 15% – 20%, so why – I mean why would you rush to do that?”

    –> 1.7K*12=$20.4K/yr.
    –> 1.6K*12=$19.2K/yr.
    –> AVG=$19.8K/yr. Let’s call it $20.0K/yr. income.
    –> Cap. rate calc. All numbers in CAD (“loonies”).
    –> $20K/$600K = 3.3% cap rate.
    –> This ignores interest, taxes, maintenance and repairs, and commissions.
    –> So, we’re looking at maybe an effective 1-2% cap. rate?
    –> As the John Pasalis said, they were in it for the appreciation.
    –> It’s a bubble. Bubbles inflate and bubbles pop. There was no sound business model. Speculation ends in tears…

      1. If the WFH migrations continue, won’t many people move to lower COL areas in general? Who is going to populate the higher COL cities then?

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      Asian stocks fall as US and European Covid cases surge
      Drop follows biggest one-day loss on Wall Street since June
      Investors fear tighter lockdown measures in France and Germany will deal another blow to global economic growth
      © Bloomberg
      Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong 3 hours ago

      Shares in the Asia-Pacific region followed Wall Street lower as a new wave of global coronavirus infections unsettled investors less than a week ahead of the US presidential election.

      Japan’s benchmark Topix index fell 0.5 per cent, South Korea’s Kospi shed 1.4 per cent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.3 per cent. In China, the CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed shares fell 0.4 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 1.8 per cent.

      The declines came after US stocks suffered their biggest one-day loss since June, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.5 per cent and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite down 3.7 per cent.

      The US on Wednesday reported its third-largest one-day jump in coronavirus cases and more than 1,000 deaths. Polls show US President Donald Trump losing ground in key Midwestern battleground states where coronavirus cases are surging ahead of the election on Tuesday.

      Falls for US equities followed a 3 per cent tumble for Europe’s Stoxx 600 and a 2.8 per cent drop for the FTSE 100 on Wednesday after Germany and France announced further restrictions to slow the latest wave of coronavirus cases.

      “The main driver of markets today is rising anxiety over the rise in Covid-19 cases in Europe,” said Robert Carnell, head of Asia-Pacific research at ING.
      …

      1. Futures are in the red. Without new trillions in stimulus from the Fed and Congress, these Ponzi markets are toast.

        1. …we have ignition, the Nasdaq solid rocket boosters are lit, but the Dow is still sitting on the launchpad.

  16. Wednesday, October 28, 2020

    Questions – White House Watch – October 22 and 25-26, 2020

    National Survey of 1,500 U.S. Likely Voters

    Conducted October 22 and 25-26, 2020
    By Rasmussen Reports

    If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

    Trump 48%, Biden 47%

    President Trump has seesawed back into a one-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch survey.

    The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    On the last Wednesday before Election Day in 2016, Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton were tied at 44% apiece in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch.

    Yesterday, Biden took a 49% to 47% lead after Trump led by one on Monday. It was the first time Trump had been ahead since mid-September. The race has been tightening since early in the month and now appears neck-and-neck going into Election Day.

    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct28

  17. “The media reported on this story as though Wallace was a mentally disabled person shot by police just because he was Black (Wallace’s mother said he had “mental issues”).”

    Meet Walter Wallace Jr, The Career Criminal Whose Shooting by Police Triggered Riots in Philly

    Chris Menahan
    InformationLiberation
    Oct. 27, 2020

    Black Lives Matter rioting and looting in Philadelphia on Monday night was triggered in response to police shooting a career criminal with a lengthy record who charged at them with a knife.

    Walter Wallace Jr, 27, has so many mugshots I couldn’t fit them all into one properly-sized header image.

    The media, which has done everything in their power to either ignore or cover-up the BLM riots in Philly, chose to use what appears to be a high school prom photo of Wallace in their stories — which didn’t dare use the “R-word” (i.e. riots) despite having over a dozen mugshots at their disposal.

    http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=61859&fbclid=IwAR3VS-iV0frmoe5xvtifi7CRJezLmi_CxdgVWpCRpdKEnmlhlMr8pl4E46w

    Here is a “music” video made by the “victim” that “forced” the “oppressed” to riot and loot.

    https://youtu.be/mPFbBvuD9A8

    1. We didn’t give him a chance to cooperate and graduate. He had been thinking about a couple of experiments for trial on the International Space Station. It’s our fault for not providing the environment he needed to thrive economically, scientifically and spiritually. Shame on us!

      1. He had been thinking about a couple of experiments for trial on the International Space Station.

        Meth labs in zero G?

    2. With multiple felony convictions, how was he able to acquire so many pistols and “assault rifles”? After all, libtards assure us that making it just about impossible for law-abiding citizens to acquire firearms for self-defense will make us all safer.

      1. After all, libtards assure us that making it just about impossible for law-abiding citizens to acquire firearms for self-defense will make us all safer.

        Dang deplorables and their gun show loophole selling their rural guns to mostly peaceful city dwellers.

  19. More “mostly peaceful” BLM protests overnight, this time in Washington D.C. The gentrified neighborhoods in Washington D.C. are lousy with highly paid gubmint workers who overwhelmingly vote D, so it will be rather enjoyable to see them reaping what they voted when that “edgy urban vibe” gets turned up a few notches.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8891795/Rioters-hurl-fireworks-DC-police-smash-store-windows-second-night-protests.html

    1. ‘Reporting on the movement as a white man can be challenging, said Nathan Howard, a freelance photojournalist based in Portland, Oregon. Howard said he sees the movement from a different perspective than somebody who has experienced racism firsthand.’

      ‘Taking photos during protests in Portland is hard because there are hundreds of people and pictures must show what is happening clearly, Howard said.’

      ‘It is difficult for photojournalists to report while not censoring the protest events, he said. Peaceful protesters get grouped in with violent people who do not have the same goals, but it is important to show both groups, Howard said.’

      ‘It is also challenging to report on the BLM movement objectively, said Katherine Barner, multimedia producer at KHQ Local News. Word choice can make a difference in how an audience receives a message, Barner said. When discussing agitators in the news, that is not a reference to protesters, she said. It is a reference to the people who get violent in response to the protest.’

      ‘Barner, who works in Spokane, said the majority of people in the city are conservatives. This means word choice is imperative so all members of the public, conservative or otherwise, can understand what is crucial. Bias cannot be part of the picture, she said.’

      ‘Latisha Jensen, reporter at Willamette Week, said she reported on a BLM protest in Portland for her first assignment. Marginalized communities are a critical concern in Portland because the city is predominantly white, she said. Most of the articles she writes involve Black people’s experiences versus white people’s experiences living in Oregon, especially in Portland.’

      ‘Xavier Henderson, WSU alumnus, concluded the panel by saying that representation is important in society. People should be able to read stories about people who look like them.’

      https://dailyevergreen.com/91927/news/alumni-discuss-blm-protest-coverage/

      These people have mush for brains.

      1. ‘Most of the articles she writes involve Black people’s experiences versus white people’s experiences living in Oregon, especially in Portland.’

        Did you ever notice how the folks who scream ‘Racism’ are among the most racist people on the planet?

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      1. Since the upper half is all dots, i.e., period(s), it could also be converted into braille art so that Mr. Magoo could enjoy it too.

    3. The banner with ‘Qanon = dumb’ appears to be facing the wrong way.

      Plus the woman on the right is waving the wrong flag. She wants the red one with 5 yellow stars.

      Also, this is what happens to superstar athletes who do not kow-tow to the PRC. Mesut Ozil, a Turkish player for Arsenal is being shown the door after criticizing China’s treatment of the Uighurs. Arsenal is denying this, of course.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxnIBwgYBDs&feature=youtu.be

  22. “‘If one person drops their price, it’s kind of a race to the bottom. You don’t want to be the person chasing the prices down,’ he says.”

    Price discovery is a b!tch when market values are falling.

  23. I know a mechanical engineer who worked in defense, and back when the Germans were chipping away at the wall next to Brandenburg Gate one of the senior engineers he worked with immediately put his Sunnyvale house on the market at a discount; it sold within weeks. My friend couldn’t figure it out until months later when the cold war layoffs swept through the valley. He in Portland, OR these days, but much wiser.

  24. Toronto Real estate has always been high , Rents at 2800 a month still sounds up there …..The Canadians are such nice folks, but they are preparing for that awful Winter right now, and I hear the snowbirds can’t go South this year , to SC or Florida , it’s a shame , because those geese need plucking ……

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