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The Bigger The Bubble, The Bigger The Bust

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “Mariano Rivera, the retired Major League Baseball pitcher, is listing his home in Rye, an affluent community in Westchester County, N.Y., for $3.995 million. Mr. Rivera and his wife bought the property in 2006 for $5.7 million, according to listing agent Heather Harrison of Compass. Ms. Harrison said the lower price reflects the fact that the Riveras bought the property brand new from a developer at the height of the market and were the first people to live there.”

The Real Deal on New York. “HFZ Capital Group continues to have trouble meeting its debt obligations. The lender at HFZ’s planned project on Manhattan’s Upper East Side claims the prolific condo developer owes more than $18 million on defaulted loans, according to a motion for summary judgement filed in New York Supreme Court on Tuesday. HFZ principals Ziel Feldman and Nir Meir are named as co-defendants for personally guaranteeing the debt.”

“The lender, identified as YH Lex Estates, claims it loaned HFZ a total of $20.5 million between 2017 and 2019 to develop the project on an assemblage around 1135 Lexington Avenue. The lawsuit alleges that after HFZ defaulted on the initial loan agreement in November 2019, it agreed to a repayment plan. In July, the two parties again agreed to extend the repayments, allowing the developer to repay the loans in six installments by October.”

“But HFZ only paid $1 million towards the balance of these loans, the suit alleges. At one point, the lender claims a $750,000 check that Meir sent from HFZ was returned for insufficient funds. HFZ has become one of the most active condo developers in New York City in recent years. But recently the company has seen its share of problems. In December, federal officials alleged that HFZ managing director John Simonlacaj let the mob skim hundreds of thousands of dollars from the XI, as well as other Manhattan projects. (He was fired from HFZ.) And in September, CIM Group tapped a brokerage to market junior mezzanine loans tied to four of the developer’s condominium projects — including 88-90 Lexington Avenue and The Astor at 235 West 75th Street — through a foreclosure sale.”

“Last month, Starwood Property Trust filed suit against HFZ alleging the firm defaulted on loan payments at the Chatsworth, an Upper West Side co-op conversion.”

From Bisnow Chicago on Illinois. “Cracks in the multifamily foundation have appeared as the coronavirus pandemic continued to sour the economy and some residents of large urban properties began to exit. The struggles of top downtown properties are not exactly news, said Kiser Group Managing Broker Lee Kiser, but vacancies are rising, and renewals are scarce in other prime locations for the same reasons, including Lincoln Park, Lakeview and Bucktown. ‘It is pretty scary right now,’ Kiser said. ‘The biggest problem right now is with lenders, and I don’t mean that they’re doing something wrong, but many are subjecting properties to more scrutiny.'”

“There has been a flood of condos recently hitting the market, many in the downtown area, said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors, and that could be a sign that many downtown dwellers plan permanent exits. In August and September, more than 1,000 condos in Chicago were hitting the market each week, with only a few hundred selling each week.”

From WTOP. “The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted the D.C.’s region’s rental housing market, with apartment vacancies rising and landlords lowering rent to fill up empty units. Across the metro area, Class A rents are down 7.0% from a year ago, the steepest year-over-year decline recorded by Delta. For Class A and Class B apartment units combined, metro area rents are down 5.5%. ‘The unprecedented nature of the pandemic and the resulting prolonged economic slowdown in its wake has impacted the apartment market more than initially expected,’ the firm said.”

“In Northern Virginia, Delta’s data shows high-rise apartment building rents are down 10.9% from a year ago. Rents at older, low-rise buildings are down 3%. In the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor, average apartment rents are down 13% from a year ago. In the District, average high-rise rent is down 10.7%. In Upper Northwest D.C., rents are down 3.2%, but in downtown, rents are down 12.7%.”

“Higher vacancy rates currently may be a problem for developers in the D.C. region. Delta reports the pipeline of likely deliveries of newly-built apartment units in the D.C. region over the next 36 months stands at 41,642 new units, 2,900 more than at this time last year. It is the 10th year in a row the development pipeline has been above 30,000 units.”

From Livabl in California. “Throughout the pandemic, we’ve been closely monitoring Zumper’s monthly rent reports, watching prices for one-bedroom apartments in Los Angeles trend downward over the past eight months. In its latest release, the apartment rental platform noted that 13 out of the 100 most populous metro areas have experienced record-breaking annual price reductions for one-bedroom units. Zumper has been tracking monthly rental data since 2015, pulling from more than 1 million apartment listings.”

“Los Angeles logged the seventh-largest price slump nationwide, with one-bedroom rents falling 13 percent year-over-year to a median of $2,000 per month. Two-bedroom rents in Los Angeles tumbled 14.7 percent over the same period last year to $2,780.”

The Santa Monica Mirror in California. “A recent report shows the average rent in Santa Monica has decreased 13 percent since the start of the pandemic in March, a steeper drop than experienced in any Southern California city. According to a November report from Apartment List, Santa Monica rents have declined ‘decreased sharply’ by 12.8 percent in comparison to the same time last year. ‘This is the eighth straight month that the city has seen rent decreases after an increase in February,’ the report reads.”

“Only the Northern California cities of San Francisco (-23.4 percent), Mountain View (-21.1 percent) Sunnyvale (-17.9 percent), Redwood City (-15.4 percent) and San Mateo (-13.2 percent) experienced sharper declines than Santa Monica.”

“Other Southern California cities that experienced rent decreases this past year include Burbank (-9.7 percent), Los Angeles (-8 percent), Pasadena (-7.7 percent), West Hollywood (-7.3 percent) and Irvine (-4.8 percent). While the report did not include nearby cities of Beverly Hills and Culver City, other estimates show respective -7 percent and -5 percent decreases experienced the past year in those cities.”

The Midland Reporter Telegram in Texas. “Apartment rents continued their downward move in October, according to apartmentlist. Rent has decreased nearly 30 percent since October 2019, according to the apartment information website. Apartmentlist shows a 29.7 percent decrease year over year in Midland. Midland’s rents have dropped for 17 straight months, including a 1.4 percent decline from September to October and a 21 percent decline since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March. Odessa rents also are going down. ApartmentList.com shows a 35.2 percent decline in rents year over year and a 27.7 percent decrease since the beginning of the pandemic in March.”

From CNA Luxury on the UK. “Alex Woodleigh-Smith, founder of bespoke buyer’s brokerage AWS Prime, believes that investors, including many Asian buyers, lose billions buying off-plan new build in bad locations in London. ‘Buying in 2015, they were promised growth prospects, but five years on they’re trying to sell before completion at the same figure that they paid at purchase. It’s not the ROI investors imagined, but this story is unfortunately all too common in the London new-build arena,’ Woodleigh-Smith said.”

“Woodleigh-Smith believes that the case for buying heritage and period properties, as opposed to new builds off-plan, couldn’t be clearer. ‘Firstly it’s the scarcity value, simple supply-and-demand economics. New builds may have 800 units – with another 700 being built next to you – so when you want to sell or re-let you’ll be up against 20 to 30 near-identical units in the scheme, which significantly drives down prices. The reasons to buy new builds simply don’t outweigh the fact that they won’t hold their value, given considerable over-supply.'”

From Domain News in Australia. “Property prices across a string of suburbs in Australia’s east coast cities have remained virtually unchanged in the past five years, with an oversupply of homes and weaker market conditions leaving their median prices at 2015 levels. Sydney had the most suburbs where price remained flat or saw limited growth, with medians in more than a dozen suburbs virtually unchanged. These were mostly in middle to outer-ring areas where there has been development aplenty in recent years, creating an oversupply of units in some pockets.”

“Haymarket, a suburb typically popular with international students, was the only inner-city suburb where prices were at 2015 levels. Hard hit by border closures, it has seen reduced demand from buyers and renters, which has put downward pressure on prices – which dropped 8.7 per cent over the year to a median of $1,105,000.”

“‘Back in 2015, 2016, 2017 things were selling hot off-the-plan,’ said Norman So, of Belle Property Strathfield. Mr So said lending policy, during the pervious market downturn and in recent months, had seen investors shy away from the market. ‘[Now] in 2020 we are in recession, amid the COVID environment there’s been a bit of a drop-off in terms of values. Commonly, two-bedder apartments in Strathfield were selling for $850,000 to $900,000, but the same unit now would trade for around $750,000,’ he said.”

”’Apartment [prices] haven’t really changed over the last five years, since about 2016, mainly because they keep building more and more in Richmond and Abbotsford,’ said Emily Sayers, of Biggin & Scott Richmond. An abundance of new supply in upscale Hamilton – at a time when investors have deserted the market – was making apartments a tough sell, said Richard Dixon, of Connect Realty.”

From TVO 50 in Canada. “Real estate is a favourite topic of Ontarians, particularly those residing in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. The ones who got into the market on its way up tend to pat themselves on the back for their decision-making savvy, while those left out have been calling for the bubble to burst for years, even decades. Now, it appears that those priced out of the market will soon have their moment — and that a deep correction of the industry is an inevitability.”

“The pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in the condo market, especially for investors who purchased units, converted them into short-term rentals, and listed them on such websites as Airbnb. While the pandemic-induced collapse of Toronto’s condo-turned-Airbnb market might have been bittersweet for its hotel industry — on the verge of its own implosion — it is mostly just bitter for local Airbnb hosts and their fallen ‘ghost hotel’ empires. In the past, it’s been tough to get a full read on what’s really going on in the condo market; I suspect that’s because developers, real-estate professionals, and even condo owners want to avoid publicizing its glaring issues, thereby dragging down valuations.”

“Now, though, the issues facing the market are becoming too big to ignore. Just last week, several realtors in my own circle confirmed that they’re being swamped by panicked buyers looking to offload their units or find long-term renters. This week, another sign of more than just ‘weakness’ in the market came to light: according to local realtors, the number of assignments (the right to purchase a pre-construction condo from its previous owner) has soared since the impacts of COVID-19 have settled in. While there are no exact numbers, it’s estimated that almost 50 per cent of pre-construction condo sales are as investments.”

“For a while, Toronto’s booming condo market seemed unstoppable: the average price almost doubled in just 12 years. This appetite for condos meant that proper planning, both at the design and urban levels, was farther down on the priority list, leading to problems that still couldn’t stop this runaway market. It took the one-two punch of regulating the short-term rental market and the pandemic to finally slow it down. They say that the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust — based on the concerns being expressed by real-estate agents and investors alike, I’d wager that we are due for a massive correction.”

This Post Has 134 Comments
    1. Personally I’m not going to worry about it. We all know what they’re trying to pull. We’ve got the money and grounds to challenge it and we’ll either prevail or we won’t.

      I’m a big believer in positive thinking, and I recently mentioned our health is the most important thing we have. That includes mental health. A couple of months ago fate handed me an impossibly small half starved kitten late at night, when its cries lead to its discovery. I took it in, and was worried it had lost an eye. The vet fixed that, it was just an infection. But it was touch and go for several days. Slowly she got better and started to grow.

      As time passed it became clear that she’s not only healthly, but an exceptional kitten. It’s been a while since I’ve raised a small one, and I had forgotten how their play is natures way of preparing them for life. Jumping leads to more jumping, higher and higher, she challenges what she could do just days before.

      Equally refreshing was seeing her character form. Her curiosity, affection, every new day is a discovery. We were spending some time together this morning and I was thinking about how she doesn’t know how she came to live in my house or why she can count on me to take care of her. She just knows she’s lucky and safe and it’ll be that way for another day.

      Moral of the story is, life is for living. Be glad your alive, healthy, don’t waste time on things out of your control. Look around and find someone or something that needs your attention. Make a meaningful positive difference. It will benefit your soul, come what may.

      1. This is good advice. Following the election is like watching a slow death or something. It’s not positive or uplifting at all. I’m going to turn it all off.

        1. That’s not what I mean. I think we’re going to win. I always think I’m going to win.

          That doesn’t mean I’m not realistic about life or human nature. That’s why I have a 357.

          1. I was responding to your “personally I’m not going to worry about it,” and “not wasting time on things out of your control.”

            Whatever happens, happens.

      2. impossibly small half starved kitten

        PIX PIX PIX PIX
        PIX PIX PIX PIX
        PIX PIX PIX PIX
        PIX PIX PIX PIX
        PIX PIX PIX PIX
        PIX PIX PIX PIX
        PIX PIX PIX PIX
        PIX PIX PIX PIX
        PIX PIX PIX PIX
        PIX PIX PIX PIX

        PLEEEEEEEEEEZE…

      3. My daughter brought home a stray from her college town. He was a street cat with a well formed 6 year old personality, street smarts, very athletic, big boned but slim and what a personality he has. He’s a member of the family now and expects to be treated that way. And a year later?

        He’s a big fat bastard. 20 lbs worth.

      4. That’s a beautiful story. There’s something incredibly calming about having a cat to watch over you.

  1. ‘listing his home in Rye, an affluent community in Westchester County, N.Y., for $3.995 million. Mr. Rivera and his wife bought the property in 2006 for $5.7 million’

    Waa? But UHS says Westchester red hotcakes cuz people are fleeing NYC and buying like crazY?

    1. Athletes and celebrities appear to have the worst intuition of anybody when it comes to buying real estate. When you go to a place like Thailand, for example, there’s a separate, more expensive menu for Americans. I’m starting to think the same can be said for celebrities and house prices – they get jacked up.

  2. ‘Los Angeles logged the seventh-largest price slump nationwide, with one-bedroom rents falling 13 percent year-over-year to a median of $2,000 per month. Two-bedroom rents in Los Angeles tumbled 14.7 percent over the same period last year to $2,780’

    ‘A recent report shows the average rent in Santa Monica has decreased 13 percent since the start of the pandemic in March, a steeper drop than experienced in any Southern California city. According to a November report from Apartment List, Santa Monica rents have declined ‘decreased sharply’ by 12.8 percent in comparison to the same time last year. ‘This is the eighth straight month that the city has seen rent decreases after an increase in February,’ the report reads’

    ‘Only the Northern California cities of San Francisco (-23.4 percent), Mountain View (-21.1 percent) Sunnyvale (-17.9 percent), Redwood City (-15.4 percent) and San Mateo (-13.2 percent) experienced sharper declines than Santa Monica’

    ‘Other Southern California cities that experienced rent decreases this past year include Burbank (-9.7 percent), Los Angeles (-8 percent), Pasadena (-7.7 percent), West Hollywood (-7.3 percent) and Irvine (-4.8 percent). While the report did not include nearby cities of Beverly Hills and Culver City, other estimates show respective -7 percent and -5 percent decreases experienced the past year in those cities’

    That’s some shortage there California. Note this doesn’t include free rents and foot rubs.

  3. ‘It is pretty scary right now,’ Kiser said. ‘The biggest problem right now is with lenders, and I don’t mean that they’re doing something wrong, but many are subjecting properties to more scrutiny’

    This is a credit event.

    ‘There has been a flood of condos recently hitting the market, many in the downtown area, said Nykea Pippion McGriff, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors, and that could be a sign that many downtown dwellers plan permanent exits. In August and September, more than 1,000 condos in Chicago were hitting the market each week, with only a few hundred selling each week’

    Well it’s mostly peaceful.

  4. ‘For a while, Toronto’s booming condo market seemed unstoppable: the average price almost doubled in just 12 years’

    This shouldn’t be a huge problem. Those airboxes cost what, 20,000 Canadian pesos?

  5. Has there ever been a DOW rocketship ride like what we’re seeing right now? The DOW is up 2,000 points in like 4 days. It’s literally straight up.

    1. I think the CB buying of stocks goes on overdrive soon after people vote.

      Brexit
      Trump 2016
      Now

    2. Mr Market luvs him some election uncertainty. Cuz everyone knows stocks go up the most at times of extreme fear and trembling.

      Seriously, I have to wonder if central bankers are pumping in liquidity to reverse last weeks crashiness…

  6. Sh!tcoin is now over 15,000, and gaining. It’s gone parabolic like the DOW. All of my friends are laughing all the way to the bank with their speculative bets, and I’m losing it all to inflation. Good times!

    1. All of my friends are laughing all the way to the bank with their speculative bets

      The trick is to know when to cash out. There is always the fear of leaving free money on the table if you cash out too soon, so most speculators wait until it’s too late. And even then, instead of bailing out when the freefall begins, they hang on, hoping for a bounce. And if there isn’t a rebound, they end up riding the market all the way to the bottom.

      1. And then for the nervous Nellies who think everything is rigged (like me), there’s this version…

        The trick is to know when to cash out get in. There is always the fear of leaving free losing money on the table if you cash out get in too soon, so most speculators nervous Nellies wait until it’s too late. And even then, instead of bailing out getting in when the freefall rocket ride begins, they hang on wait, hoping for a bounce crash. And if there isn’t a rebound crash, they end up riding the market cash all the way to the bottom top.

    2. My precious metals and mining stocks are soaring. I’m hoping the Fed’s bullion banker accomplices who have been rigging the market via formerly-illegal stratagems like “naked shorting” and dumping non-existent paper silver and gold end up being bankrupted when they can’t source or deliver enough physical metal to cover their wrong-way bets once investors in the COMEX panic and try to take delivery of the metals they supposedly purchased.

        1. PAAS has too much exposure to Mexico for my liking. The cartels are extorting the mining companies (Mexico is the world’s #2 silver producer & #7 gold producer) and the president’s idea of a security strategy as narco-violence hits all-time highs is “hugs, not bullets.” (I wish I was making this up). At some point the cartels are going to kill the goose that lays the golden egg, just like the Zimbabwe and South African governments are killing off their mining sector with their corruption and affirmative action demands.

          1. “hugs, not bullets.”

            Abrazos, no balazos”

            He has earned a lot of scorn for this, but it seems that Mexico’s lower classes are happy to see everything burn to the ground, even if it takes them with it.

          2. Interesting I know they were in Peru but not Mexico I actually only own NEM now used to own PAAS many years ago.

            I think Culiacán is lost to the cartels .
            Wont be going there on vacay

          3. China love$ weak gubermint$, love$ ’em like America loved desert.$and kings in the 1950’$ …

    3. If Ben is right commercial real estate might be worth investing in before anything else. Stocks just keep getting farther and farther away from what I would think of as fair value.

      Let’s see — the Vanguard REIT Index fund is down 15.8% over one year, with an adjusted effective yield of 2.75%. For a buy and hold type investor, how far down would be sanity, and not catching a sword?

      1. CRE is going to be a tricky thing. You have work at home, baby boomers retiring and not being replaced, and automation eliminating clerical staff. I would not be surprised if CRE occupancy decreased by 1/3-1/2 in the next five years. You really need to pick your buildings carefully.

        1. I won’t be looking to buy and operate buildings. I’d just be investing in something like the Vanguard REIT index fund and accepting the average return. That would include multifamily.

          So — down one-third, down one-half? Is there any point that isn’t catching a sword, on average?

          1. REIT pricing is closely correlated with stocks, as the shares can change hands with a few strokes on the keyboard.

            The properties themselves are less liquid assets and the pricing moves much more slowly.

            If you want to buy the Vanguard REIT Index fund, then you might want to consider opening up a position and dollar-cost-average additional shares over time.

            In some of my Vanguard mutual funds there have been times when I was adding a little bit every day. For example, instead of investing $50 a week, you can set up 5 separate weekly buys (M, Tu, W, Th, F) of $10 each and repeat the schedule into the future.

  7. Ms. Harrison said the lower price reflects the fact that the Riveras bought the property brand new from a developer at the height of the market and were the first people to live there.”

    Shirley the lower price has nothing to do with an imploding housing bubble.

  8. “HFZ Capital Group continues to have trouble meeting its debt obligations. The lender at HFZ’s planned project on Manhattan’s Upper East Side claims the prolific condo developer owes more than $18 million on defaulted loans, according to a motion for summary judgement filed in New York Supreme Court on Tuesday.

    Oh dear…right on cue, here come the cascading defaults. Regret to inform you, Jerome Powell, but I don’t think the Fed is going to be able to print its way out of the bursting debt and credit bubble it created.

  9. ‘The biggest problem right now is with lenders, and I don’t mean that they’re doing something wrong, but many are subjecting properties to more scrutiny.’”

    No, Lee, the biggest problem is that lenders are subjecting properties to more scrutiny years too late, while their Yellen Bux valuations are melting away.

  10. In the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor, average apartment rents are down 13% from a year ago. In the District, average high-rise rent is down 10.7%. In Upper Northwest D.C., rents are down 3.2%, but in downtown, rents are down 12.7%.”

    Is that a lot?

  11. In August and September, more than 1,000 condos in Chicago were hitting the market each week, with only a few hundred selling each week.”

    Gosh, I sure hope that doesn’t put downward pressure on prices and end up burning anyone who overpaid.

  12. The reasons to buy new builds simply don’t outweigh the fact that they won’t hold their value, given considerable over-supply.’”

    The construction quality on most British new-build housing is terrible. Decades of socialism have completely destroyed any semblance of a work ethic among most Brits, especially in the construction trades. In addition, building inspectors are either incompetent or on the take, as serious structure defects routinely surface that inspectors would have to be criminally negligent not to notice.

    1. “Decades of socialism have completely destroyed any semblance of a work ethic among most Brits, especially in the construction trades.”

      Funny you should mention that. Capitalism has done the same in much of the U.S. — lower wage unskilled labor putting up inferior materials.

      I have always associated that with the buildings as cars idea — you don’t built to last, you build to tear it down and replace it.

  13. “Los Angeles logged the seventh-largest price slump nationwide, with one-bedroom rents falling 13 percent year-over-year to a median of $2,000 per month. Two-bedroom rents in Los Angeles tumbled 14.7 percent over the same period last year to $2,780.”

    More mostly peaceful protests will help turn this around.

  14. I’m sitting on top of a mountain above Breckenridge right now enjoying the beautiful fall weather. People with mortgages can’t climb mountains, because they are debt slaves. They probably can’t even afford gas to drive to the trailhead.

      1. Patience! Once the link posts you can see the town of Breck at foreground and 14,000+ foot peaks Grays and Torreys at background.

        1. Some of us were born to achieve, and some people were born to pay interest to banks.

          Sadly, Beau’s travels above treeline are over, but he can still hike some lower Front Range foothills.

        2. +1

          Thought I might have to specify what kind of pics given recent non-narrative news. 😅😉

    1. “I’m sitting on top of a mountain above Breckenridge right now enjoying the beautiful fall weather.”

      – Nice view I’m sure! That’s the 10 Mile Range. Which peak? I’ve hiked Quandry Peak, just to the S. of Peak 10.
      – BTW, Breck used to be my favorite resort, but I’m planning backcountry skiiing this season, due to Colorado getting too crowded + the virus.
      – Have fun!

    2. Apt –
      For fun – go up Handies Peak down in the San Juan’s at some point – magnificent views from up there – The road up to the American Basin is sketchy at best – nothing less than all wheel drive to get there.
      rj

      1. “For fun – go up Handies Peak down in the San Juan’s at some point”

        – I hiked that one this summer from American Basin. Yes, the shelf road is sketchy at best. Great hike w/ great views.

      2. I finished all of the CO 14,000+ foot peaks a few years ago, Handies was a very nice mountain. Taken from nearby above the same valley outside of Lake City this summer from the summit of high 13er Half Peak, this one was really nice.

        Looking north, the spiny peak at upper left is 14er Wetterhorn, the blocky high peak near center left is Uncompagre, highest point of the San Juan Range:

        https://imgur.com/a/yM3kVdq

        Looking southwest, across the western Weminuche Wilderness toward the Needle Mountains, Grenadiers, Chicago Basin 14ers, Wilson Group 14ers, and beyond:

        https://imgur.com/a/ci3sZIG

        Imagine a life without debt, it is a sense of freedom most people will never know…

  15. Seems like Mr Rivera lost a bundle on that speculative investment, especially if inflation and HODLing costs were included.

    “Mariano Rivera, the retired Major League Baseball pitcher, is listing his home in Rye, an affluent community in Westchester County, N.Y., for $3.995 million. Mr. Rivera and his wife bought the property in 2006 for $5.7 million, according to listing agent Heather Harrison of Compass. Ms. Harrison said the lower price reflects the fact that the Riveras bought the property brand new from a developer at the height of the market and were the first people to live there.”

  16. From TVO 50 in Canada. “They say that the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust — based on the concerns being expressed by real-estate agents and investors alike, I’d wager that we are due for a massive correction.

    – RE is the economy until it isn’t. Bubbles always pop, although the central banks are working overtime to keep them inflated. However,
    to quote a well known phrase: “They say that the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust.

    – Does this make a crater?
    Mother of all Bombs (Bubbles/Busts) 🙂
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-43/B_MOAB
    GBU-43/B MOAB
    – That’s gonna leave a mark…

    Classic quote here. An ode to central bank-induced malinvestments.

    “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

    – And a freebie thrown in for good measure!

    “Panics do not destroy capital, they merely reveal the extent to which it has been destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works.” — John Mills (1867)

    – Humpty Dumpty.

    1. Edited for current era/century:

      “Panic$ do not de$troy capital, they merely reveal the extent to which it has been de$troyed by its betrayal into hopele$$ly unproductive $helter.$hack.purcha$e$.” — John Mills (1867)

  17. PhillyGodfather ® Sports Bettor
    @phillygodfather
    ·
    1h
    SHOCKING VIDEO FROM REGISTERED DEMOCRAT AND POLL WATCHER

    https://twitter.com/phillygodfather

    “I’m a registered Democrat in the city of Philadelphia,” the man explained. “Today, I’m at the Philadelphia Convention Center and I am overseeing the ballot counters.”

    “I will let you know the corruption that is going on here. They will not allow us within 30 to 100 feet to supervise the ballots being counted.”

    “This is a coup against the president of The United States of America and I want to call out the Mayor of Philadelphia James Kenney, the attorney general Josh Shapiro, who tweeted ‘there’s no way Donald Trump can win president of the United States of America, and also District Attorney of Philadelphia Larry Krasner.”

    “I can’t believe what I’m seeing right before my eyes,” he added. “This has nothing to do with Joe Biden or Donald Trump. This has to do with our Democracy, and I will tell you, there is corruption at the highest level in the city of Philadelphia.”

    1. This has nothing to do with Joe Biden or Donald Trump

      This has plenty to do with Joe Biden. Plenty.

    2. They’re doing it in Georgia right now, and have been for 2 days. Now DJT’s lead is down to 3,500. They’re fixing it. I fully expect them to call Georgia for Biden and declare him the winner of the race. Then the other states don’t even matter.

      1. By the way, Biden has made up something like 70,000 votes in Georgia since they’ve had 99% reporting. Gee, that last 1% is pretty fooking big, right? I mean, with less than 5,000,000 total votes cast, 70% is over 1.5% of the total vote, and it’s still going. These are the same people who perpetrated the impeachment hoax – the deep state.

    1. Eddie Hassell

      Never heard of him.

      There must be armies of nobodies like this guy who “star” in low budget/low viewership shows on cable and streaming channels, hoping to get noticed and make the move to the network $how$.

  18. House Democrats savaged Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a family venting session that featured yelling and crying lawmakers in the wake of the party’s losses on Thursday.

    And the drama on the three-hour conference call played out live on Twitter, as details were leaked to the Capitol Hill press corps, who tweeted all the wild details.

    Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat from Virginia who narrowly won a second term on Tuesday night, yelled out her frustration, accusing party leaders of bowing to demand from the liberals, like members of ‘The Squad.’

    Democrats kept control of the House in this year’s election but their majority shrank and it was moderate members of the party who lost. The final results aren’t in but Democrats could loss up to 10 seats.

    ‘We need to be pretty clear,’ Spanberger said of election night results. ‘It was a failure. It was not a success. We lost incredible members of Congress.’

    ‘No one should say ‘defund the police’ ever again,’ Spanberger said, referring to one of liberals’ demands, Politico reported. ‘Nobody should be talking about socialism.’

    Spanberger, continued to unload on Democratic leaders, warning if the party kept up these tactics in 2022 election: ‘We will get f****** torn apart.’

    (Regret to inform you, Spanberger, but by 2022 the Bolsheviks will have completely captured the Democratic Party from the crony capitalist wing of the party represented by you & Comrade Pelosi. And it’s the country that’s going to get f****** torn apart, thanks to the radical-left agenda the Democrats will attempt to impose on it.)

    1. If they get away with rigging this election, it’s a great evil .

      All I can say is that there will be conquences for screwing over half the Country. I can’t predict how this will play out in terms of karma, cause and effect, whatever you want to call it.

      1. Yup, I was thinking about the karma angle too. But then, there are plenty of other countries where elections were rigged and God didn’t come down to blast them either. Achmahdinajad(sp?) in Iran comes to mind, as does all the waves of protest and death in China. I don’t think we can depend on Karma.

        1. Very acute & Preci$e!

          ” … is that there will be CON$equence$ for screwing over half the Country.” & “I can’t predict how this will play out in terms of karma, cause and effect, whatever you want to call it.”

          Eye can’t predict either, but looking @ my 2020 🔮… Thee.🍊.jesus is $upplanted bye Joey “Biden.his.time”

          What does supplanted mean?

          transitive verb.: to supersede (another) especially by force, treachery or “fake.votes”!

          (or all of thee above👆) … 🍳🍞 & ☕

        2. oxide,
          When I talk about karma, I’m not talking about a bolt of lighting coming down and striking the bad seeds
          All I’m saying is that it will have a effect that is not predictable .
          But, whatever positive you can conjure up about this level of assault on democracy , it’s not something that won’t have effect and everyone goes back to normal.

      2. How can you tell if the election was rigged? Does it depend on whether your favorite candidate wins or not?

        1. The Corner
          Elections
          Pat Toomey: No Evidence of Significant Voter Fraud in Pennsylvania
          By John McCormack
          November 6, 2020 9:29 AM

          In an interview with the Today show on Thursday, Pennsylvania’s Republican senator Pat Toomey said he is not aware of any evidence of significant voter fraud anywhere in the state, and the slow vote count is simply a function of the surge in mail-in voting and Pennsylvania election officials being prohibited from counting those votes until Election Day.

          1. Pretty sure that four years of false propaganda by our press (and FBI) took a toll on some voters who take “news” as truth.

          1. Excerpt:

            I’ve been trying to keep up with the firehose of information about what’s going on during this clusterfuck of an election. Last night I was on Facebook talking about the crazy high, 3rd world dictatorship level voter turnout levels in the deep blue areas of these swing states was very suspicious. Somebody gas lighted me about how “I’d have to do better than that”, so this was my quick reply, listing off the questionable bullshit I could think of off the top of my head:

            The massive turn out alone is a red flag.

            But as for doing better…

            The late night spikes that were enough to close all the Trump leads are a red flag.

            The statistically impossible breakdown of the ratios of these vote dumps is a red flag.

            The ratios of these dumps being far better than the percentages in the bluest of blue cities, even though the historical data does not match, red flag.

            The ratios of these vote dumps favoring Biden more in these few battlegrounds than the ratio for the rest of the country (even the bluest of the blue) red flag.

            Biden outperforming Obama among these few urban vote dumps, even though Trump picked up points in every demographic group in the rest of the country, red flag.

            The poll observers being removed. Red flag.

            The counters cheering as GOP observers are removed, red flag.

            The fact that the dem observers outnumber the GOP observers 3 to 1, red flag (and basis of the first lawsuit filed)

            The electioneering at the polls (on video), red flag.

            The willful violation of the court order requiring the separation of ballots by type, red flag.

            USPS whistleblower reporting to the Inspector General that today they were ordered to backdate ballots to yesterday, red flag.

            The video of 2 AM deliveries of what appear to be boxes of ballots with no chain of custody or other observers right before the late night miracle spikes, red flag.

            Any of those things would be enough to trigger an audit in the normal world. This many flags and I’d be giggling in anticipation of catching some thieves.

            And it isn’t that I have to do better. I’m just an gen pop observer who happens to be a retired auditor with a finely tuned bullshit detector. This is going to the courts.

          2. Excerpt:

            I’ve been trying to keep up with the firehose of information about what’s going on during this clusterfuck of an election. Last night I was on Facebook talking about the crazy high, 3rd world dictatorship level voter turnout levels in the deep blue areas of these swing states was very suspicious. Somebody gas lighted me about how “I’d have to do better than that”, so this was my quick reply, listing off the questionable bullshit I could think of off the top of my head:

            The massive turn out alone is a red flag.

            But as for doing better…

            The late night spikes that were enough to close all the Trump leads are a red flag.

            The statistically impossible breakdown of the ratios of these vote dumps is a red flag.

            The ratios of these dumps being far better than the percentages in the bluest of blue cities, even though the historical data does not match, red flag.

            The ratios of these vote dumps favoring Biden more in these few battlegrounds than the ratio for the rest of the country (even the bluest of the blue) red flag.

            Biden outperforming Obama among these few urban vote dumps, even though Trump picked up points in every demographic group in the rest of the country, red flag.

            The poll observers being removed. Red flag.

            The counters cheering as GOP observers are removed, red flag.

            The fact that the dem observers outnumber the GOP observers 3 to 1, red flag (and basis of the first lawsuit filed)

            The electioneering at the polls (on video), red flag.

            The willful violation of the court order requiring the separation of ballots by type, red flag.

            USPS whistleblower reporting to the Inspector General that today they were ordered to backdate ballots to yesterday, red flag.

            The video of 2 AM deliveries of what appear to be boxes of ballots with no chain of custody or other observers right before the late night miracle spikes, red flag.

            Any of those things would be enough to trigger an audit in the normal world. This many flags and I’d be giggling in anticipation of catching some thieves.

            And it isn’t that I have to do better. I’m just an gen pop observer who happens to be a retired auditor with a finely tuned bullshit detector. This is going to the courts.

          3. Excerpt:

            I’ve been trying to keep up with the firehose of information about what’s going on during this clusterfuck of an election. Last night I was on Facebook talking about the crazy high, 3rd world dictatorship level voter turnout levels in the deep blue areas of these swing states was very suspicious. Somebody gas lighted me about how “I’d have to do better than that”, so this was my quick reply, listing off the questionable bullshit I could think of off the top of my head:

            The massive turn out alone is a red flag.

            But as for doing better…

            The late night spikes that were enough to close all the Trump leads are a red flag.

            The statistically impossible breakdown of the ratios of these vote dumps is a red flag.

            The ratios of these dumps being far better than the percentages in the bluest of blue cities, even though the historical data does not match, red flag.

            The ratios of these vote dumps favoring Biden more in these few battlegrounds than the ratio for the rest of the country (even the bluest of the blue) red flag.

            Biden outperforming Obama among these few urban vote dumps, even though Trump picked up points in every demographic group in the rest of the country, red flag.

            The poll observers being removed. Red flag.

            The counters cheering as GOP observers are removed, red flag.

            The fact that the dem observers outnumber the GOP observers 3 to 1, red flag (and basis of the first lawsuit filed)

            The electioneering at the polls (on video), red flag.

            The willful violation of the court order requiring the separation of ballots by type, red flag.

            USPS whistleblower reporting to the Inspector General that today they were ordered to backdate ballots to yesterday, red flag.

            The video of 2 AM deliveries of what appear to be boxes of ballots with no chain of custody or other observers right before the late night miracle spikes, red flag.

            Any of those things would be enough to trigger an audit in the normal world. This many flags and I’d be giggling in anticipation of catching some thieves.

            And it isn’t that I have to do better. I’m just an gen pop observer who happens to be a retired auditor with a finely tuned bullshit detector. This is going to the courts.

    2. ‘No one should say ‘defund the police’ ever again,’ Spanberger said, referring to one of liberals’ demands, Politico reported. ‘Nobody should be talking about socialism.’

      And the winner is:
      THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

    3. This sounds like the beginning of the Great Reshuffling. I stand by what I said earlier: I would bet that a good number (half?) of those Biden voters were nose-holders who were brainwashed into hating Trump. When they find out that the getting rid of Trump didn’t get rid of their problems, we might see some kind of middle-ground faction, like Spanberger.

      But they won’t from a third party, not at first. In one scenario, all those moderates will join the Republican party. The extreme right wing is too small and smart to form a third party. They will stay R, but they will either hold their tongue or die off. This process actually began under Trump, first with Trump himself and then with people like disillusioned minorities.

      In the other scenario, the moderates will join the Dems and the left-wing will infight and eventually — and idealistically and stupidly — split off to be Progressive or Socialist. It might not happen in 2024, but by 2028 we could easily see a moderate Dem/RINO type win the Presidency with a 60%+ margin. Folks like John Kasick need to get busy.

      1. “:I would bet that a good number (half?) of those Biden voters were nose-holders who were brainwashed into hating Trump.”

        1/16 of them were dead.

        Michigan Issues Non-Denial Denial Of Dead Voter Rolls Claim

        by Chris Menahan | Information Liberation
        November 6th 2020, 2:26 am

        Here’s the statement they sent out:

        Ballots of voters who have died are rejected in Michigan, even if the voter cast an absentee ballot and then died before Election Day. On rare occasions, a ballot received for a living voter may be recorded in a way that makes it appear as if the voter is dead. This can be because of voters with similar names, where the ballot is accidentally recorded as voted by John Smith Sr when it was actually voted by John Smith Jr; or because of inaccurately recorded birth dates in the qualified voter file; for example, someone born in 1990 accidentally recorded as born in 1890. In such scenarios, no one ineligible has actually voted, and there is no impact on the outcome of the election. Local clerks can correct the issue when it is brought to their attention.

        Note the non-denial that dead people are on the rolls and voted.

      2. Professor Bear,
        The problem with you thinking that this assult on a fair election will level out that which is not balanced is not supported by history.

        History proves that evil attempts to gain more power and it double downs on the power grabs.
        As I have said, Trump was elected to take back the power grab that had already taken place. They just showed their true colors for 4 years in every way. The false narratives, the fake news, the riots and defund the Police, suppression of real news, Russian Hoax, fake impeachment, now fake election.

        Insane type power that’s based on fraud and false narratives will proceed with more insanity.
        Listen to the Commie Harris talk about how she is going to make everyone equal.
        Top down control was not the intent of this Government that so many have died to protect.
        This invasion was done from within and the Globalist and their beloved partner China are celebrating.

    1. ” ..Look around and find someone or something that needs your attention. Make a meaningful positive difference. It will benefit your soul, come what may. ”

      Touche! … 🤺

      tou·ché / to͞oˈSHā/ / exclamation!

      “used as an acknowledgment during a discussion of a good or clever point made at one’s expense by another person”

  19. Facebook shut down the pro-Trump “Stop the Steal!” page after its membership surged to 300,000 because of “threats of violence.” So all these Orwellian social media giants have to do to stop non-Narrative Compliant groups from organizing is to have a few plants spout off about violence, and then they shut down the entire group.

    The ultimate irony is the New York Times slogan: Democracy dies in the dark.

    https://www.tmz.com/2020/11/05/facebook-shuts-down-pro-trump-stop-the-steal-group/

  20. Time to watch some quality weird classics on Youtube . And how did they know what the future would be like so clever.

    Cold Lazarus (Dennis Potter 1996) E01

  21. Does it seem like Mr Market is awash in massive volatility waves that take multiple days to crest and trough?

    What the dips buyers chalk up as the latest rally is in fact a massive bear trap with an imminent crater.

    Next leg down: mañana

    1. “Does it seem like Mr Market is awa$h in ma$$ive …” Free monie$ from neo.qua$i.$ocialist.$tephen.Munchin & “UNLIMITED+” $upport from “pu$hover” Powell?

      Ye$, ab$olutely ye$!

      Got $timulu$?

    2. 👌 Boomer & “Be$t.eCONomy.EVER!”

      $MALL BUSINE$$ PLAYBOOK:

      The $68 trillion tran$fer of wealth in America is evaporating amid cri$is

      CNBC / By Ellen Cheng / PUBLISHED THU, NOV 5 2020

      KEY POINT$
      According to a survey by the Center for New Middle Class, there was a 25% drop in the number of baby boomers who said they are self-employed or own their own business in the second quarter.I

      That impact could have significant repercu$$ion$ for the economy at large considering that baby boomer$ own nearly half (50%) of privately-held busine$$e$ with employees in the U.S., according to Project Equity.

      That’s 2.34 million businesses with 24.7 million employee$ and $5.1 trillion$ in $ales, according to the U.S. Census Bureau

      “Not to put too small of a point on it, but that sound of sucking that you hear is boomers being pushed out of economy during the pandemic,” said Jonathan Walker, executive director of the Center for the New Middle Class.

      Boomers see evaporating wealth:

      Much has been said of the expected $68 trillion wealth transfer as boomers leave their wealth to the next generation. Now it appears some of that wealth may evaporate amid the crisis.

      “People hear these numbers and think of the stock market or real estate, but a large chunk of that is around small- and mid-sized family businesses,”

    3. The Financial Times
      WHAT’S NEXT FOR AMERICA? Steer through uncertainty with the Financial Times
      *terms and conditions apply
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US stock futures fall as global rally loses momentum
      Tight presidential election leaves investors braced for weeks of uncertainty
      A street performer dressed in costume stands in front of the Nasdaq MarketSite in the Times Square neighborhood of New York
      Stock futures for the US blue-chip S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 point to falls
      © Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
      Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong and Camilla Hodgson in London 14 minutes ago

      Global stocks wavered on Friday, coming close to ending a five-session winning streak, as the hotly contested battle to decide the next US president left investors on edge.

      Stock futures pointed to Wall Street opening lower, with the blue-chip S&P 500 set to fall 0.6 per cent and tech-focused Nasdaq 100 down 0.9 per cent.

      The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.4 per cent by midday, although the continent-wide benchmark remained on track for its best weekly performance since June. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax fell 1 per cent, London’s FTSE 100 sank 0.3 per cent while the CAC 40 in Paris was 0.8 per cent lower.

      An uptick in market jitters was reflected in the Vix index, a measure of expected volatility in the US stock market over the next month, which edged back up to 28 on Friday, above its long-run average of 20.

      Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, said Friday’s reversal in equity markets was unsurprising: “Markets are back to the top of the range. To move beyond those levels, you need to get confirmation that we can move on and we have a president.”

      Investors had temporarily put aside issues surrounding the coronavirus pandemic this week even as infections continued to rise, he added.

  22. We have an deciduous Ash tree with a compound leaf stalk that separates at the node from the tree…all in one day! I’m not sure what triggers it, but it’s the same every year, boom! Too bulky to rake up, I just rake them away from the edges of the yard onto the lawn and run the mulching lawn mower with its catch bag, which nearly filled a 40-gal trash bag. Renters don’t do this; home ownership.

      1. “Down here that chore is easily outsourced.”

        Here too. The local fish wrap classified section is loaded with deplorables who mow lawns in the Spring, Summer and Fall, and plow or shovel snow during the Winter so they can maintain their status here in Truck Country. We’re talking $70k crew cab, diesel powered, lift kit, 35″ big meats, etc., with a boy scout and high school alma mater. 🙂

  23. Here is a good idea of what has to happen.

    https://therealdeal.com/2020/11/05/mall-pocalypse-now-minnesota-mall-loan-sells-for-huge-discount/

    From that price, the new property owner can make money, future occupants can make money, future redevelopments can make money. Too bad about the losses, but it just is not true that what is good for the price of paper assets is good for America.

    “Last week, a $63 million loan secured by about half of a 1 million square foot mall in the Minneapolis suburbs hit the auction block. The collateral backing the loan was valued at $137 million in 2010.”

    “When the auction started, the opening bid was $7 million. When the loan finally sold, the winning bid was just $17 million, or a more than 80 percent drop from the value of the collateral. This amounted to a loss of over $40 million to the loan’s bondholders, according to the data provider Trepp.”

    “CBL Properties, which recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, sold the loan. The buyer, who will gain control of half of the mall, was not disclosed.”

    1. “When the auction started, the opening bid was $7 million. When the loan finally sold, the winning bid was just $17 million, or a more than 80 percent drop from the value of the collateral. This amounted to a loss of over $40 million to the loan’s bondholders, according to the data provider Trepp.”

      Will the bondholders (pension funds?) be revealed when they go crawling to Jerome Powell, hat in hand?

      1. I suspect that the campus is going to be bulldozed and redeveloped. It’s been a ghost town for over a decade. Though the timing seems off. Commercial? Not likely. Residential?

  24. I am going to laugh my @ss off at all the libtards who start crying after Creepy Joe and his corrupt buddies lock the whole motherfocker down and destroy what’s left of this economy. You voted for it. Reap, b!tchez.

    1. Whilst it’$ inevitable that Joey “Biden.his.time” will make eCONomic mi$take$, the ab$olute bigge$t he could $uffer, would bee to remove dtRumpsis’$ Mega.deficit genius’$: Munchin & Powell inc.!

      “Does it seem like Mr Market is awa$h in ma$$ive …” More.Free Monie$ from neo.qua$i.$ocialist.$tephen.Munchin & “UNLIMITED+” $upport from “pu$hover” Powell?

      Ye$, ab$olutely ye$!

      Got $timulu$?

      “Does it seem like Mr Market is awa$h in ma$$ive …” Free monie$ from neo.qua$i.$ocialist.$tephen.Munchin & “UNLIMITED+” $upport from “pu$hover” Powell?

      Ye$, ab$olutely ye$!

      Got $timulu$?

  25. The collectivist control freaks who control our higher education system risk red-pilling the special snowflakes as they try to impose arbitrary and creepy “security measures” supposedly intended to prevent COVID-19.

    Students Chant ‘F**k the Fence’ as They Rip Down COVID Lockdown Enclosure

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/g5bgqw/university-of-manchester-lockdown-fences

    Hundreds of students at the University of Manchester have torn down a fence that had been erected around their halls of residence without warning.

    According to students at the university, metal fences were erected by the university in the early morning of Thursday, enclosing the entire Fallowfield campus which houses seven students halls. Students were not officially informed about the fences until later in the afternoon when they discovered through an email that it was a security measure to limit the flow of students.

  26. Short of calling for a taking a re election in all States of dispute, in which the ballot is matched to a legal registered voter, the crime has been pulled off.

    When Biden/Harris are exaulted to Sainthood by CNN with every move they make, the putting lipstick on those pigs will ring absurd.
    And when Biden brings back all the policies that were running this Country into the ground, and open borders, Medicare for all, take away gas, Green New Deal, Commie redistribution , Globalist and Monopoly control, and China Monopoly reasserted, freedom of speech destroyed , etc etc, than It’s a done deal.

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