skip to Main Content
thehousingbubble@gmail.com

More Options To Chose From Strips Sellers Of Bargaining Power

A report from The Real Deal on Florida. “The Naples Area Board of Realtors also reported that the number of houses and condos listed for sale in October rose to 5,992 from 5,010 last year, a 20 percent increase. ‘There are some neighborhoods where I still see an oversupply in the spec home market, but I’m also seeing inventory begin to tighten in very desirable areas west of U.S. 41,’ said Cindy Carroll of Carroll & Carroll Appraisers & Consultants.”

“Naples-area condos listed for sale in October totaled 2,815, or 9 percent more than last year, while the area’s inventory of houses listed for sale surged 31 percent to 3,177.”

From Curbed Hamptons on New York. “In March of 2017, the 3.3-acre property at 863 Sagg Main Street in Sagaponack listed for $16 million. A year and a half later, the estate is now available for under $10 million. During its time on the market, the home has had several changes in price. Prior to the latest price cut, it was asking $11,995,000.”

“With an asking price of $9.95 million, the current listing is 62 percent of the original ask.”

The Times-Standard in California. “Charles McCann has been charting the real estate market on a daily basis for over a decade. In a recent interview with the Times-Standard, he said Humboldt County’s housing market is slowly shifting from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market.”

“The number of houses on the market has risen dramatically over last two years, he said. Buyers now have more options to chose from, which strips sellers of some of the bargaining power they have. In January of 2017, the total number of houses on the market in Humboldt County was about 220 houses; 584 houses were listed in late August.”

“‘It ebbs and flows,’ McCann said. ‘But it’s definitely higher than it has been in the last three years.'”

“In addition to more houses on the market, the time they spend on the market has increased as well. In 2016 and 2017, during the height of the buying season, half of the houses listed spent 10 days on the market. This year, that number has increased to 15, which McCann says is still quite rapid, but an increase none the less.”

“In terms of local home values, a rising trend can be seen over the past several years. McCann said that prices ‘bottomed out’ in 2013, the median price of a house was $230,000. Since then median price of homes has continued to rise until six or seven months ago. The current median price of a home is $310,000, according to McCann.”

“‘We’ve been in a holding pattern,’ McCann said.”

“One note of worry, offered by Humboldt State University Professor of Economics Erick Eschker is that although housing prices are climbing, foreclosures have ‘stopped falling and perhaps even started rising.'”

This Post Has 17 Comments
  1. ‘I still see an oversupply in the spec home market’

    Wa? But I was told shortage? Renters living in RV’s? Are you telling us they actually build shacks no one has bought or lived in?

  2. 1)
    a) “Naples-area condos listed for sale in October totaled 2,815, or 9 percent more than last year, while the area’s inventory of houses listed for sale surged 31 percent to 3,177.”
    b) ” …I’m also seeing inventory begin to tighten in very desirable areas * west of U.S. 41,’ said Cindy Carroll of Carroll & Carroll Appraisers & Consultants.”

    What? Please reconcile these two incongruous statements; they both can’t be right. Reality: Prices are peaking and inventory is rising. YoY sales are up for now (lagging, like Case-Shiller data), but no mention of the MoM (leading) data…

    “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain

    2)
    Typical puff-piece on U.S. housing (below). I would expect nothing less from the NYT, including the (faulty) economic analysis. No mention of housing bubble 2.0, or how we got here. Millennials are of course in great financial position to rescue the housing market by virtue of their stagnant (real) incomes and huge student loan debt. Uh-huh… Closing comments as a soothing balm of reassuring platitudes. “A strong (nonhousing) economy makes it more likely that this housing slump will end without a steep 2008-style downturn.” In other words, “it’s not different this time.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/upshot/housing-market-slumping-despite-booming-economy.html
    Why the Housing Market Is Slumping Despite a Booming Economy

    Home prices are out of reach relative to incomes and mortgage rates. The big question for the economy is how the imbalance adjusts.
    By Neil Irwin Nov. 15, 2018

    “So what’s going on? When you look closely at the data, it appears this paradox of a strong economy and a weak housing market is, at its core, an illustration of a fundamental rule in economics: If something can’t go on forever, it won’t.”

    “What seems to be happening is that sellers are trying to cling to the spring 2018 prices that their neighbors received, while there aren’t enough buyers in late 2018 willing or able to pay those prices.”

    “There is precedent for this, and it isn’t a happy one. In the last housing boom, new home sales peaked in July 2005, and home prices didn’t start declining until May 2006.”

    1. strong (nonhousing) economy

      Most of that is based on ever expanding cheap credit on the one side and the construction boom on the other.

  3. ‘In 2016 and 2017, during the height of the buying season, half of the houses listed spent 10 days on the market. This year, that number has increased to 15’

    Once again the days on the market statistic is obviously not accurate.

  4. ‘There are some neighborhoods where I still see an oversupply in the spec home market, but I’m also seeing inventory begin to tighten in very desirable areas west of U.S. 41,’ said Cindy Carroll of Carroll & Carroll Appraisers & Consultants.”

    Sure you are, Cindy. And I see Elvis at my local Burger King.

  5. “With an asking price of $9.95 million, the current listing is 62 percent of the original ask.”

    Greedhead wish prices bear no relation to market realities as Eee-bola takes its toll. I’m guessing this shack needs to shed a few million more before the cratering is done.

  6. Article graphic notes the percent married of 25-34 year old Americans has dropped from 59% in 1978 to 29% in 2018:

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/pursuits/modern-love-cohabitation-on-rise-in-u-s-demographic-trends

    Single men, would you pay $50,000 for a 10 year old used Honda with over 200K miles on it? Because that’s what the marriage market expects of you.

    Related: TheRedPill subreddit is now “quarantined” on Reddit, ideas so true they have to be censored, LOLZ

    1. A lot of people see anything close to ‘those ideas’ as a threat. (gee I wonder why) The vilification is so extreme at times, that I am seeing young men who nod ‘yes’ and take what they actually think underground.

      And a lot of old farts like me are going to continue to tell our sons the facts and truth.

    2. “…ideas so true they have to be censored, LOLZ”

      I see Monika Lewinsky’s #MeToo batteries are fully charged.

    3. Marriage and stability is still the best way to raise children. If that’s not the goal for the woman and she is career minded, there is more security in a casual relationship. Why would she want to be shackled with taking care of a man with lots of miles on him and a faulty steering linkage. Moral compass is a rare thing. That’s what you get when you turn the whole place into a casino. Just sayin.

  7. I’m seeing houses going back on the market as rentals. So inventory is rising but has somewhat stabilized here but I wonder how many will come back online in Spring. The flips are of course attempting to rent at way over market to cover their costs because as accidental landlords they were never intending to rent, but they’re going to sit empty. My guess is that they’ll be desperate to unload in Spring, but time will tell.

    1. “The median price of $649,500 has fallen from its June peak of $700,000 and now is nearly unchanged from a year ago. The price decline in October from a year ago is rare for a housing market that has steadily gotten more expensive for more than six years.”

      What’s in it for flippers to make them want to buy if prices are falling? Presumably nobody wants to catch themselves a falling knife.

Comments are closed.

Back To Top