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There’s A Lot More Pricing Discovery Today

A report from the Real Deal on Florida. “Former hedge fund manager Jim Pulaski bought a unit at Apogee in South Beach after selling his waterfront North Bay Road mansion. Property records show G Sofi Investments LLC, sold the four-bedroom, 4,154-square-foot at 800 South Pointe Drive for $12.2 million. Pulaski, who was previously a commodity trading portfolio manager at Tudor Investment Corp., paid a total of $14 million for unit 2004.”

From Sinclair News. “Richard Brown is a landlord of several properties in Winchester, Virginia, mostly small, single-family homes. In August, Brown found himself having to pay the mortgages on his properties as well as maintenance and utilities while income from his tenants was dropping due to the pandemic. One of Brown’s tenants hadn’t paid him in months and owed close to $10,000 in back rent and he feared he would fall behind in his mortgage payments and lose his other properties.”

“‘They’re never going to be able to collect on it and everyone knows that,’ said Caleb Kruckenberg, a litigation counsel, noting none of his clients qualify for federal mortgage forbearance or other coronavirus relief. ‘A lot of landlords are small mom and pops. They pay mortgages on these properties and if they don’t get rent, they can’t pay the mortgage.'”

From CBS Boston in Massachusetts. “Krista Cornchuck never thought searching for an apartment in Boston would be so much fun. ‘This is amazing,’ she said walking into an apartment at 30 Dalton Street with a massive window and a panoramic view of Boston’s Back Bay. Krista moved out of the city a few years ago to escape the steep downtown rents, but she is now looking at places that are hundreds of dollars below her budget. ‘Which is pretty incredible compared to what it was a year ago,’ she said.”

“‘We are seeing a lot of incentives,’ said Krista’s Realtor Jacob Coro. ‘One, Two, sometimes even three months free rent right off the top. ”It’s unlike any market we’ve seen before,’ said Demetrios Salpaglou of Boston Pads, a real estate company that tracks vacancies across Boston. His data shows that back in the fall of 2019 Boston had about 1,200 apartments available. Right now there are about 5,500, which is great news for renters.”

From CBS San Francisco in California. “Tenants living in so-called affordable housing units are now in many cases paying more than their market-rate neighbors. These affordable units are not tied to the traditional real estate market fluctuations and hopeful tenants like Christine McDow say they should be. ‘I’m going to be working at a consulting non-profit and the financial district,’ McDow said. While searching the city’s website she realized some of the affordable housing units are more expensive than some market rate units. ‘I think the furnished one bedroom was actually cheaper than the unfurnished one,’ McDow said.”

“According to Apartment List rents in San Francisco are down 27% since the start of the pandemic. A one-bedroom used to average $3,500 a month; now it’s down to $1,983. Below Market Rate (BMR) units haven’t seen rent drops; in fact, in Dave Osgood’s building they’re seeing rent increases. There are 76 below market rate units in the Rincon tower, Osgood says all year he’s seen people move out as cheaper market rate units become available. ‘There may be as many as 20% of them empty,’ Osgood said.”

“Studios on the city’s Dahlia website range from nearly $1,200 a month to more than $1,700 a month. One bedrooms can go as high as $2,800 a month. At the Avalon on King Street BMR tenants are locked into one bedroom leases at more than $2,700 a month, but now in that same building a market rate unit of the same size rents for less. The city’s affordable housing portal is filled with units that are more expensive than similar market rate units.”

The Real Deal on New York. “The Musso Group is looking to sell its four-building multifamily portfolio in Briarwood, Queens, with an asking price of $99 million. The Long Island real estate firm bought a pair of apartment buildings at 80-08 and 81-10 135th Street in 2009 for $28 million. Those properties have a combined 278 residential units and one professional unit. The company then built two more luxury rental buildings with a total of 104 units.”

“‘There’s a lot more pricing discovery today than there was a year ago,’ said Ariel’s president Shimon Shkury. ‘There will be more pricing discoveries throughout this year.'”

From Bisnow on Texas. “Houston’s office market has one of the highest vacancy rates in the country, a carryover from the energy sector’s prior downturn in late 2014. The latest downturn, coupled with the uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, has weakened the market further. Transwestern Executive Vice President Michelle Wogan said the court systems have been shut down and foreclosures have been on hold for months. That pent-up demand could translate to more distressed Houston office properties hitting the market.”

“‘There have been buildings that should have foreclosed last year that did not, that will foreclose this year. So that activity of servicers coming back into the market, servicing the loans, foreclosures — that will happen, it will be an uptick in 2021 and 2022,’ Wogan said.”

The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “The COVID pandemic has lowered demand for rental properties and thus what landlords are charging, but investors looking to buy apartment buildings to earn a financial return believe this is temporary, says Lance Coulson, an executive vice-president at commercial broker CBRE. He said that apartment buildings, which offer a basic need of shelter, are a ‘defensive asset class’ for institutional investors like REITs that want to offset some of the losses they face with their retail or office properties that have been hard hit by the pandemic.”

“Critics of rising REIT ownership of apartment buildings say rent controls would temper rising costs. However, said Coulson, many of these existing rental apartment buildings need investment. ‘If your operating expenses are going up and you can’t grow your rents, you’re getting negative cash flow,’ said Coulson. ‘That money is going to go somewhere else.'”

The Daily Post. “Bangor has been named as the UK’s most ambitious city. But like pretty much every other place in the country, the Covid-19 pandemic has taken its toll on the city, with boarded-up shops and rising unemployment. The absence of university students has only added to the sense of desertion. ‘People I’ve spoken to say that for every job vacancy there are 200-500 applicants, and often this is for manual work,’ said dance instructor Tracy Hancock, owner of Pagan’s Pole. ‘I can’t say I’ve thought about Bangor being particularly ambitious. There’s a lethargy about the place because of the number of boarded up shops and the lack of opportunities for young people.'”

“Fears that students may not return – that student numbers have peaked – have seen landlords jettison empty properties. ‘There’s a huge glut of houses on the market,’ said Gwynedd independent councillor Dylan Fernley. ‘A couple of hundred former student houses are currently up for sale, with houses prices being stagnant, if not falling.'”

From Domain News in Australia. “First-home buyers have been snapping up apartments in buildings normally filled with international students as opportunities for bargain buys open up. Woodards Carlton North partner Glenn Bartlett said interest had not been overwhelming for smaller investor-grade apartments. ‘We’ve noticed a drop off in investor enquiry on these investor style apartments,’ Mr Bartlett said. ‘These were generally appealing to people overseas.'”

“However, most vendors were hanging on to their empty student apartments, he said. Buildings like Woodards, which has a one-bedroom apartment listed for sale, is not seeing a rush to the market from distressed vendors needing to sell. ‘Most are prepared to wait it out [until international students return] and significantly reduce their rents to attract a tenant for the next six to 12 months,’ Mr Bartlett said.”

“Domain’s latest rental data, released in January, showed rents in some of these suburbs had dropped to their lowest point in four years, with a $388 per week median rent across the city. The vacancy rate jumped to 9 per cent, up from 2.3 per cent just a year ago.”

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This Post Has 91 Comments

  1. ‘There’s a huge glut of houses on the market…A couple of hundred former student houses are currently up for sale’

    Recession proof.

  2. ‘never thought searching for an apartment in Boston would be so much fun…now looking at places that are hundreds of dollars below her budget’

    That’s the spirit!

  3. ‘rents in San Francisco are down 27%…‘There may be as many as 20% of them empty’

    Add it up and yer lookin’ at half which is an a$$ pounding. BTW bay aryans, we’ve been here before, when the commie rent controls were way higher than market rate.

      1. “Well surprise, surprise, The LA Times ditched their hot properties section this AM.”

        – Insert my shocked face here. Shocked! Shocked, I tell you!
        – Well, removing it was better than changing it to their “cold properties” section. 🙂
        – The narrative of “prices only go up” must be supported, even if that means removing any unpleasant truths from the reporting.
        – “It’s always a good time to buy.”

    3. who owns most of the new large buildings? REITS that who – so they are going to rely more and more on depreciation and less on real cash flow. This might get really ugly for pension funds and the like.

  4. ‘There’s a lot more pricing discovery today than there was a year ago…There will be more pricing discoveries throughout this year’

    Wa? But we had a troll tell us months ago there would be no price discovery?

    1. ‘There’s a lot more pricing discovery today than there was a year ago…There will be more pricing discoveries throughout this year’

      “Wa? But we had a troll tell us months ago there would be no price discovery?”

      – MFH & CRE are cratering. No hiding that in the media.
      – Also, as you’re well aware, there are literally thousands of new “Class A” MFH units, condos, condo-tels, etc. coming on line this year. No overbuilding; no gross errors or misallocation of capital in focusing on the luxury market here. The MFH/CRE slow motion train wreck continues apace.
      – I’m waiting for SFH to join the party. My guess is it will follow the stock market bubble popping, which probably isn’t that far off based on the extreme mania psychology in most every asset class currently. The Ides of March perhaps? A lot of parallels in politics today, IMHO.

      1. How about the SF multi-million$ a$$ pounding above? Or the SF LL not paying his mortgage in VA (eat yer crowz taxpayer). Or the half off or foreclosed CA shacks I regularly post here? There’s a reason the LAT stopped the hot properties.

        I’m not going to try to make a horse drink water. If 5 million loanowners not making payments isn’t enough to see what’s coming, there never will be. Liquidity isn’t solvency. We are in a recession. Sure there are lots of weak minded people getting shoehorned into loans. That will work out well. People were hoarding potato’s too.

        I was thinking about the post last week with the guy saying buying low wasn’t enough, they needed profit. Credit contracts going into a downturn naturally. There’s more risk, more unknowns. But the most important reason is it lowers the overall damage, borrowers and lenders. By expanding credit at the worst possible time, these guberments and central banks have screwed the pooch. And a bunch of weak greedy idiots along with it.

        Not to be forgotten:

        March 26, 2020

        “As America heads into a deep recession, the $11 trillion residential-mortgage market is in crisis. Investors who buy home loans packaged into bonds are dumping even those with federal backing because of panic that millions might not make their payments. Yet one risky sector had started to show cracks long before the coronavirus pandemic sparked the worst financial meltdown in 12 years: the federal government’s largest affordable-housing program, whose lenient terms are geared toward marginal borrowers.”

        “As real estate prices soared in recent years, working-class adults everywhere have increasingly relied on mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration — and U.S. taxpayers. Since 2007, the FHA’s portfolio has tripled in value to more than $1.2 trillion, almost 11% of the market. While private lenders make these loans, they are packaged into Ginnie Mae bonds, common in mutual funds and pensions.”

        “Before Covid-19 started roiling China, a November FHA report found that 27% of borrowers last year spent more than half their incomes on debt, a level it describes as ‘unprecedented.’ The share of FHA loans souring in their first six months has doubled over the last three years to almost 1%.”

        “Not long ago, Alex Castillo drove his shiny black Infiniti SUV through an office park north of the San Antonio airport, along a busy seven-mile stretch of highway that loan officers call ‘Mortgage Row’ because of its abundance of small independent mortgage companies that dominate FHA lending. Castillo, who has the words ‘The Dream Starts Here’ stitched into his jacket, works for Pennsylvania-based American Residential Lending. Oddly, amid the pandemic, his business is booming. His customers locked in FHA mortgages after interest rates plunged this month — adding to federally backed mortgage debt.”

        “‘If the government tells me you’re good enough to get a loan, I have to trust and believe in the government,’ Castillo said. ‘Then we just hope and pray that the client doesn’t get foreclosed on.’”

        “In downtown San Antonio, scores of investors stood on a parched lawn beside the city’s historic granite-and-red-sandstone courthouse. It was the first Tuesday of February, the day of the foreclosure auction. Matt Badders, a San Antonio lawyer who represents lenders, auctioned off two houses. The failed mortgages remind him of the run-up to the financial crisis 12 years ago, when lending to customers with spotty credit nearly brought down the world’s financial system. ‘We’re almost back to 2007, when mortgage originators are waking people up on park benches, saying sign here,’ Badders said.”

        “At the auction, the crowd bid on 338 homes, a third with FHA mortgages, according to Roddy’s Foreclosure Listing Service. One house had dual master bedrooms, a game room and granite kitchen counters. It sold for $202,000 — $52,000 less than the homeowner borrowed only two years ago. The taxpayer-backed FHA insurance fund will take a loss.”

        “Dave Stevens, FHA commissioner under President Barack Obama and former chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said a recession will expose hidden risks in home lending. ‘This should be an alarm bell to policymakers,’ Stevens said. ‘Sometimes you get blinded by a good economy and suddenly look at it and see a bubble of defaults coming.’”

        “The federal government has decided it doesn’t want to pursue — and has asked a judge to dismiss — a lawsuit against Utah-based Academy Mortgage Corp. The judge refused. The suit claims the company’s staff would repeatedly feed information into an automated federal underwriting system, manipulating it until the computer gave the green light. ‘Decline is a curse word,’ Plaintiff Gwen Thrower, a former underwriter, quoted a manager as saying. ‘We don’t use it.’”

        http://housingbubble.blog/?p=3070

        1. “How about the SF multi-million$ a$$ pounding above? Or the SF LL not paying his mortgage in VA (eat yer crowz taxpayer). Or the half off or foreclosed CA shacks I regularly post here? There’s a reason the LAT stopped the hot properties.”

          “I’m not going to try to make a horse drink water. If 5 million loanowners not making payments isn’t enough to see what’s coming, there never will be. Liquidity isn’t solvency. We are in a recession. Sure there are lots of weak minded people getting shoehorned into loans. That will work out well. People were hoarding potato’s too.”

          – OK, no offense, but I’m seeing prices still rising in the lower- tier (~$1M and under) SFH markets. This is primarily due to record low interest rates along with a mad rush out of (mostly blue) cities. So maybe I should clarify and say that prices are still rising in the lower-tier markets.
          – It’s said, like a lot of things, including RE, that “a fish rots from the head.” In other words, upper-tier/high-end RE leads the market, and so you’re correct in pointing out the (large) price reductions in the multi-million $ SFH houses. This will eventually show up in the lower-tier markets.
          – Mortgage forbearances are still mostly in force, and have been extended well into 2021. This will – as intended – limit foreclosure/short sales which would otherwise drag prices down in a normal market, since price is set at the margin. There are millions in forbearance, but it must end sometime. TPTB are hoping that the economy will recover before they have to end forbearance. I’m certain that they will try every trick in the book to keep all of the balls in the air, but “it’s not different this time.”

          – I went and read the LA Times article. Yes, they see “the hand writing on the wall” for the lux market, and again, this will move down the “property ladder” in time into the lower-tiers.

          https://www.latimes.com/business/newsletter/2021-01-30/real-estate-newsletter-lilly-singh-matt-damon-steve-wynn-hot-property
          Jan. 30, 2021 7 AM PT

          “A note to our readers

          Hot Property is changing, but the commitment of the Los Angeles Times newsroom to real estate coverage will not.

          After Feb. 6, The Times newsroom will no longer produce Hot Property.

          Hot Property will relaunch in print and online as a brand publishing product sold by the advertising department. All paid content will carry clear disclaimers indicating that they are sponsored.

          Newsroom coverage of the luxury housing market will run in the Business section online and in print, alongside our reporting on the broader residential and commercial real estate markets. Such reporting can also be found in this newsletter, which will be renamed Real Estate. This transition will free up journalists in the Business department to tackle more ambitious enterprise, investigative and service journalism, helping readers navigate the housing market.”

          – Yes, they see what’s coming, but their justification is a little less than genuine, IMHO.
          – To me, I can’t see owning a house in any solidly blue city or state. LA is transforming itself into a third world sh*thole, if anyone’s asking. “Socialism is Western Civilization in retrograde.” I guess the elites consider it more of a banana republic, but it’s all semantics to me. 🙂

          1. There’s no compensation for the risk, which is uncharted right now. I still see people talking about 5% cap rates. It’s their funeral.

          2. BTW, you know why luxury shacks and condos cratered since 2016? There’s no guberment loan guarantees. Recently I posted a report saying the GSE’s were bailing on the condo loan biz. So you won’t read it in the “every airbox makes an angel ring its bell” horse-sh$t media, but instantly there were millions of fooked borrowers all over the country.

  5. ‘If your operating expenses are going up and you can’t grow your rents, you’re getting negative cash flow…That money is going to go somewhere else’

    But Lance, cash flow is soooo 2010. Yer gonna miss out on that sweet equity!

  6. ‘most vendors were hanging on to their empty student apartments, he said. Buildings like Woodards, which has a one-bedroom apartment listed for sale, is not seeing a rush to the market from distressed vendors needing to sell. ‘Most are prepared to wait it out [until international students return] and significantly reduce their rents’

    That’s right Glenn, don’t give it away…

    2. The Thirty Tyrants everyone should read this article. Long but fascinating reminds me a little of Victor Davis Hansen. Historian.

      “What seems clear is that Biden’s inauguration marks the hegemony of an American oligarchy that sees its relationship with China as a shield and sword against their own countrymen. Like Athens’ Thirty Tyrants, they are not simply contemptuous of a political system that recognizes the natural rights of all its citizens that are endowed by our creator; they despise in particular the notion that those they rule have the same rights they do. Witness their newfound respect for the idea that speech should only be free for the enlightened few who know how to use it properly. Like Critias and the pro-Sparta faction, the new American oligarchy believes that democracy’s failures are proof of their own exclusive right to power—and they are happy to rule in partnership with a foreign power that will help them destroy their own countrymen.

      What does history teach us about this moment? The bad news is that the Thirty Tyrants exiled notable Athenian democrats and confiscated their property while murdering an estimated 5% of the Athenian population. The good news is that their rule lasted less than a year.

      1. That was a good article posted and segment on Tucker Carlson.
        As you know by my posts this is the exact take I have on the Globalist/Elites corrupting our Government and switching their loyalty to Communist China that made them more money by this manufacturing monopoly on cheap labor.
        What constitutes a Company being a US Company anymore if they have gutted US jobs and Manufacturing to a Communist Country like China, who has the goal of becoming number one power in the World.
        Really, you couldn’t even call it free trade, because it was more like let’s gut US jobs and Manufacturing and transfer it to China.
        So, the Globalist Corporations got corrupted bought off Swamp in DC to not protect this Country and the Citizens from what ends up being a Commie Foreign enemy invasion designed to loot and dewealth the USA . It was always a National Security problem in transferring manufacturing to a Commie Country.
        So now the Media, owned by the Traitors to America, are pushing Commie programs, censorship of dispute to their false narratives, Monopolies ruling, and outright attack on over half the Countries Citizens calling them extremists insurrectionist. It is they who are the insurrectionist that just want to loot destroy and dewealth the USA.
        The false narratives that the US is racist and all the talk that the US is bad sounds like a enemy talking about a place they want to destroy.
        They criminally stole the election and put their treasonous Puppets in, and will proceed to do everything that is against the interest of the US and the Citizens. Thanks China Joe Biden for being the warped and bought off Traitor you are, who criminally stole the White House.

  9. Used to be normal in the bad old days before QE and interest rates were at 8%.

    ““Krista Cornchuck never thought searching for an apartment in Boston would be so much fun…Krista moved out of the city a few years ago to escape the steep downtown rents, but she is now looking at places that are hundreds of dollars below her budget. ‘Which is pretty incredible compared to what it was a year ago,’ she said.”

  11. You wanted free chit and government to steal from others and take care of you.

    You voted for this.

    Why are you complaining????

    “Tenants living in so-called affordable housing units are now in many cases paying more than their market-rate neighbors.”

  12. Two weeks to break the curve!

    We are all in this together ❤

    “I’ve spoken to say that for every job vacancy there are 200-500 applicants, and often this is for manual work,’ said dance instructor Tracy Hancock, owner of Pagan’s Pole. ‘I can’t say I’ve thought about Bangor being particularly ambitious. There’s a lethargy about the place because of the number of boarded up shops and the lack of opportunities for young people.’”

    1. FWIW, the Bangor in the article is in Wales, not Maine.

      We are definitely NOT in this together with them. If we were, we would need the guberment’s permission to leave our homes.

  13. “Former hedge fund manager Jim Pulaski bought a unit at Apogee in South Beach after selling his waterfront North Bay Road mansion. Property records show G Sofi Investments LLC, sold the four-bedroom, 4,154-square-foot at 800 South Pointe Drive for $12.2 million. Pulaski, who was previously a commodity trading portfolio manager at Tudor Investment Corp., paid a total of $14 million for unit 2004.”

    He waited for sixteen years to cash in on his investment, only to sell at a nominal loss of $1.8 million, which would look much worse if adjusted for inflation.
    Quite a round trip there. Got capitulation?

    1. Add in taxes, maintenance, upgrades, insurance and costs/fees of buying/selling…

      Probably closer to a $3 million loss.

      1. “…closer to a $3 million loss….”

        Yes, but. Think of all those incredible parties. If you divided that out, probably no more than a couple hundred $K per party.

        Just because Jim Pulaski is a hedge fund manager, doesn’t give him common sense or basic math skills.

    2. I was curious about the details and went to the full story. It looks like Pulaski bought the condo from another party in the Apogee building. The previous owner had paid $7.3 million for the unit in 2008. Pulaski now owns 2 condos in the building and sold a mansion on North Bay Road.

      What gives? The ultra-luxury condo segment of the market had something like a 5 year inventory. The article even goes on to say that a number of sales are pending in the building.

      “Hijazi said there was a bidding war for the unit, and at least six sales are pending in the building. Developers are also reporting an uptick in ultra high-end condo sales.

      “There’s a shortage of homes,” Hijazi said, referring to waterfront properties in Miami Beach.”

      1. “The ultra-luxury condo segment of the market had something like a 5 year inventory. The article even goes on to say that a number of sales are pending in the building.”

        As a former condo owner who used to pay close attention to condo prices, I can vouch that it sux to sell one when prices are falling and multiple similar units are up for sale. Condo prices tend to go up in tandem with local SFR housing in a rising market, when few or no similar units are on the market in a given area. When lots of similar condo units go up for sale in a bust, a race to the bottom can ensue, where only those units whose owners drop their prices the fastest can sell, and those seeking top dollar continue HODLing while market values drop like a lead balloon.

        1. Seems like the Common Area Maintenance (CAMs) expenses rise during recession especially the places with amenities like a gym equipment room and swimming pool, or they decide to resurface the parking lots.

  14. 1) From Sinclair News. “Richard Brown is a landlord of several properties in Winchester, Virginia, mostly small, single-family homes. In August, Brown found himself having to pay the mortgages on his properties as well as maintenance and utilities while income from his tenants was dropping due to the pandemic. One of Brown’s tenants hadn’t paid him in months and owed close to $10,000 in back rent and he feared he would fall behind in his mortgage payments and lose his other properties.”

    “‘They’re never going to be able to collect on it and everyone knows that,’ said Caleb Kruckenberg, a litigation counsel, noting none of his clients qualify for federal mortgage forbearance or other coronavirus relief. ‘A lot of landlords are small mom and pops. They pay mortgages on these properties and if they don’t get rent, they can’t pay the mortgage.’”

    2) From Bisnow on Texas. “Houston’s office market has one of the highest vacancy rates in the country, a carryover from the energy sector’s prior downturn in late 2014. The latest downturn, coupled with the uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, has weakened the market further. Transwestern Executive Vice President Michelle Wogan said the court systems have been shut down and foreclosures have been on hold for months. That pent-up demand could translate to more distressed Houston office properties hitting the market.”

    “‘There have been buildings that should have foreclosed last year that did not, that will foreclose this year. So that activity of servicers coming back into the market, servicing the loans, foreclosures — that will happen, it will be an uptick in 2021 and 2022,’ Wogan said.”

    – So there are apparently limits to extend and pretend ? Market forces still apply? The cycle can be artificially extended (and it has been), but it can’t be prevented. Even so, central bankers would like to think (hubris) that with centrally planned, command and control, and state ownership of the means of production, they can run the economy. However, their almost daily machinations, interference, and interventions in the economy and markets only increases instability and so sets the stage for a crash. Recall that it didn’t end well in 2000 or 2008-9. This time we have both a stock market and RE bubble (with MFH/CRE further along than SFH for now). Think 2000 dot com bubble + 2008-9 housing bubble 1.0 combined and you won’t be far wrong. History is littered with the corpses of those countries determined to make Socialism work “this time.”
    – Recessions are healthy for the economy in that like occasional forest fires, they clear out the dead wood and set the stage for new growth. Since the GFC we’ve been avoiding the “creative destruction” that comes with recessions, and by doing so have set the stage for a massive conflagration. The bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust, courtesy of your local central banker.

    2. I know. This “when are shacks gonna join the party?” stuff is missing a forest of points. Here’s a small one: do we actually own real estate in the US anymore? Are we just to assume the abandonment of contract law by the courts should be forgotten? That we got a bunch of communists deciding things? Real estate doesn’t do well under communism. What happens when they need yer money? A little capital gains increase, some property taxes, rent cancellation (already rampant) and all the calculations go out the window. Is somebody gonna squat and there ain’t a dam thing you can do about it? Will somebody torch yer shack in the middle of the night and the police don’t even show up? You know, little concerns.

      Here’s an eyeopener: demand has been pulled forward for over a decade using widespread subprime mortgage fraud. You do realize shacks need end users, right? It’s not tomatoes that rot and have to be thrown out. You do realize shacks are depreciating, illiquid assets?

      1. 100+ years of contract law got thrown into the dumpster fire with the GM bankruptcy.

        Those that should have been first in line, bondholders, got destroyed so that a political supporter (UAW) at the back of the line was made whole and actually benefited.

        All those calculations to buy GM bonds were based on risk and return. How does anyone price these now?

        No one stopped it.

        And those in power saw they could destroy other contracts at a whim to buy votes and power.

        1. In the late 90’s I walked into the dotbomb I was working for and looked at the WSJ headline about Long Term Capital Management getting $2 billions for fudging up big time. Of course it wasn’t long that we couldn’t pay for the subscription and everybody was out of a job.

          Our second biggest customer at the time was what became Worldcom. I read every day how much their stock was soaring and what a world beater it was. I asked myself, how come they can’t pay their invoices?

  15. ‘We’re now in the fraud business’: More scam unemployment claims have been filed in Colorado than legit ones

    CDLE reports 1.1 million fraudulent claims have been filed since the pandemic began, compared to the 1,043,760 legit claims that have been filed and processed.

    But, thanks to 50 automatic triggers that flag and halt a potentially fraudulent claim, the state said it has only paid out $6,562,264 to scammers over the last year.

    Full article on 9 News website.

    We have become a nation of grifters.

      1. Personally, I’m tired of being herded into the idea that my fellow Americans are all free-loaders happy to sell their vote in exchange for some government freebies, or grifters happy to sell out society for personal gain. Maybe most are not.

        Maybe our current problems are not the fault of American voters. Maybe the grifting and “FSA” is at the top. Maybe we didn’t vote for this.

        1. To expand on this – even if our elections were 100% fraud-free, where was the referendum when 50%+ of Americans voted in favor of house prices rising faster than incomes? What election was it where We the People got to choose between two opposing candidates for Fed chair? What constitutional amendment did we all enact that added access to subprime credit to the Bill of Rights?

          It’s pretty rich for us to blame each other when a lot of what matters is never actually voted on, or even discussed by the candidates we choose between who eventually get to decide these issues.

          1. where was the referendum when 50%+ of Americans voted in favor of house prices rising faster than incomes?

            At the very moment, when each and every one of them threw out the wisdom of their forefathers, logic itself and any shred of morality or love of freedom, to purchase a house for an amount that they did not have and could not even earn without decades of subservient labor and remarkable luck.

    2. compared to the 1,043,760 legit claims that have been filed and processed

      One million legitimate claims, in a state with 5 million people, including children. And Colorado is supposed to have fared better than many other states.

      It’s going to take decades to recover from these lock downs. And the stimulus packages are just going to make it worse.

    3. ‘We’re now in the fraud business’: More scam unemployment claims have been filed in Colorado than legit ones’

      https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1358739404303589378
      Tweet
      Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader
      Who is behaving responsibly?
      Who is held to account for irresponsible behavior?

      The government?
      Politicians?
      The Fed?
      Business leaders?
      Banks?

      Why would the population be responsible if its leaders aren’t?
      Who is mirroring whom?

      sethmcneil5VT @Sethmcneil5V
      · Feb 8
      Replying to @NorthmanTrader
      In all seriousness, it feels like there are no adults modeling responsible behavior anymore.
      4:28 AM · Feb 8, 2021·Twitter Web App

  16. Long long ago, they were stikkin it to the man:

    ‘Among the biggest losers from the bust? GameStop CEO George Sherman, who owns 2,361,670 shares of GameStop, according to Bloomberg. As of Monday’s open, those shares are worth $171.6 million. That’s down 85% from Jan. 28 when his shares were worth a staggering $1.14 billion after GME’s stock hit $483.’

    ‘While his holdings are still up big-time—back on Dec. 31 his GME holdings were worth $44 million—they’ll likely continue to slip as more GME shareholders who bought high realize they’re never going to recover their losses.’

    ‘Why didn’t Sherman sell already? Chances are he couldn’t. Publicly traded companies usually restrict CEO stock sales, limit them to preplanned increments, or only allow them after getting board approval.’

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-ceo-shares-plunge-nearly-171318516.html

    Never recover losses? But they were pikkin out the trim for the Gulf-stream? Wa happened?

    It’s only been days and it’s almost forgotten.

    1. There’s a difference in shorting at 10 bucks or 400 bucks. You know what hyped MSM story you won’t read today? That the shorts at 400 have made mountains of money that divided by the $600 free cheese checks means there are millions of sad pandas sittin’ on their toilet (yes, that was a robben hood trading statistic a few days ago) wonderin’, Wa Happened?

      1. ‘The family of a Robinhood investor who took his own life last year has sued the platform, alleging it misled the 20-year-old into thinking he was nearly $1 million in debt and that “reckless tactics” directly led to his death.’

        ‘Filed in California’s Santa Clara County Superior Court on Monday, the 30-page complaint from the family of Alex Kearns accuses the online trading app of luring a young, inexperienced investor into transactions he “did not understand” and misleading him to believe he had incurred hundreds of thousands of dollars in obligations through the platform.’

        “‘How was a 20-year-old with no income able to get assigned almost $1 million worth of leverage?’ These were the last known written words of 20-year-old Alex Kearns before he rode his bicycle to a railroad crossing and ran in front of an oncoming train,” the Kearns family wrote in the court filing, adding “The only ones with the answer to Alex’s question are defendants Robinhood Markets Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC and Robinhood Securities LLC.”

        https://www.rt.com/usa/514979-robinhood-suicide-family-lawsuit/

      2. “…there are millions of sad pandas sittin’ on their toilet…”

        There’s a tendency for the MSM to pretend that everyone is a winner with stoxx and calve off the sad panda tales as though there’s no connection.

        1. It’s not so much that Elon is a con-artist, it’s that he is such a spectacularly entertaining con-artist, and he does it with taxpayer funding.

    1. On my way to work, I am seeing two houses on adjacent lots being built. I can only imagine these will be $700,000 boxes based on location. Saw the land cleared, foundation set up and then framing commence. For the nearer complete house, the process was maybe a month or so along. I think they will have it finished by spring. Wondering if they are spec homes. Anyway, this area is growing with all the refugees from NY, CA and elsewhere. Sort of envisioning the day the krill workers will have to live even further away than now to find affordable homes. Many co-workers drive 20 miles or more to get to work. This is Maine. Twenty miles pits you in the sticks. And even those sticks are being treated like 25 year Accords with a $50,000 asking price.

      1. his area is growing with all the refugees from NY, CA and elsewhere

        Wait until the Californian’s get a load of the long, snowy winters.

  19. Interestingly, the CBS Boston news piece was the last thing I watched before turning off the TV last night. I just looked the 30 Dalton website where Krista C. saw such amazing deals, the available 1 BR apartment rents are “from $2,939 – $3,614” and 2 BRs are “from $4,400-5,240”. Something tells me Krista is not using her real name (Cornchuck?) Oh yeah, there’s a penthouse available for $10,000 too. Will Krista “chuck” her suburban digs for that?

    Across the river where I live/rent (well below market), 1 BR’s seem to be holding steady at $2,000 and up. If you’re lucky you can find one for $1,700 -$1,800. This is purely anecdotal, based on occasional searches, last one about 4 days ago.

    Today I watched a piece on local news station WCVB: “Open houses cause traffic jams in crazy hot real estate market”. This is out in Lancaster which is almost 50 miles west from Boston. There seems to be a feverish “buy now or be priced out forever” mentality ’round these parts!

    https://www.wcvb.com/article/open-houses-cause-traffic-jams-in-crazy-hot-real-estate-market/35451691

  21. “NYSE chief warns it may exit New York if stock transfer tax is imposed”

    Coming to a portfolio near you soon.

  22. A year from now after millions of women have taken this new vaccine they may end up looking like Al’s dream girl.

    https://youtu.be/5g4Was2wWmA?t=21

    Man Tests Positive For COVID Three Weeks After Second Vaccine Dose

    by Kelen McBreen
    February 9th 2021, 12:51 pm

    A California man has tested positive for COVID-19 three weeks after he received his second dose of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine.

    The Lake Forest resident, Gary Michael, was at the hospital for an unrelated health issue when he took the COVID test.

    “Yesterday I got a phone call from the Orange County Health Department,” Michael told KCAL 9. “They told me that, yes, I’m positive with coronavirus, and they went through my symptoms and the precautions of what I should do as far as quarantine.”

    1. Since even the Black Plague when away after 18 months, isn’t it weird they are talking about wearing double masks for maybe five years in spite of receiving the glorious vaccine that’s suppose to protect you.
      I think they got away with the Pandemic hoax , so they are double downing on keeping this hoax going for whatever sinister reasons, and expanding it into the future.

    1. That CNN watching mask nerd sounds like he is in his late 20s – mid 30s and has never been on a date with much less spent the night with a girl in his life.

      He reminded of a line from Animal House.

      Being a gullible masked virgin is no way to go through life son.

      1. Hey, jeff.
        This was in Florida as I recall, but she’s obviously a NYer.
        This happened to me last spring. I was struggling to open a doctor’s office door and as soon as I stepped over the threshold (while putting on a mask) I hear “Put your mask on”. It took me a few seconds to realize that she was talking to me. I turned around, not a happy camper, but properly muzzled. There were two women there. I figured out who it was because one looked horrified. I let it go because I felt lousy and wasn’t up for an argument. This virus has revealed all the control freaks.

        2. To be fair to the ladies, this is a doctor’s office in Florida. Waiting rooms are already notorious for spreading cold/flu/viruses, and everybody in FL is already old and sick with something. I’m surprised they haven’t been asking for masks pre-pandemic.

          1. I phrased that badly. The doctor part happened to me in Las Vegas. I had the mask on by the time I stepped into the waiting room. I think she had positioned herself as a lookout at a seat next to the entrance so she could be hall monitor, that would be the only way she could have seen me the moment I got to the door outside. It was only one lady.
            And now, a little video from the Mayo Clinic:
            Mask Containment Study
            169,656 views • Nov 25, 2020
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_bM1y1IpJY

  25. Today is Wednesday, February 10th and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    Cassidy = Globalist.
    Collins = Globalist.
    Murkowski = Globalist.
    Romney = Globalist.
    Sasse = Globalist.
    Toomey = Globalist.

  26. The last time I recall seeing markets come this manic was in the runup to the tech stock collapse, which I believe got into full swing in early 2000. Like now, bubble denial was a recurring theme in the MSM. And similar to GameStop stock and Bitcoin, the prices of fundamentally worthless assets, like the Beanie Baby who watches over my office from the corner of the room, were climbing skyward like a Dutch tulip price.

    Enjoy this epic boom while it lasts, but make sure you have a good storm shelter to survive what’s coming.

    2. And IIRC, there were lots of “it’s gonna crash” articles on front pages at the same time. People either didn’t believe them, thought they could time the market, or were finance interns who would lose their jobs if they took profits.

  27. Poverty, 9 Million Small Businesses In Danger Of Closing, 10 Million Behind On Rent…

    by Michael Snyder | Economic Collapse
    February 10th 2021, 1:36 am

    More than 8 million Americans — including many children — fell into poverty during the second half of last year, exacerbating the racial and income inequalities that are holding back the U.S. economy.

    In this case, I think that this is a reasonable estimate, but that number will inevitably keep growing in the months ahead.

    These are very dark times for the U.S. economy, and the outlook for the future is exceedingly bleak.

    However, in the short-term economic conditions should stabilize somewhat thanks to the huge stimulus payments that the government will be sending out.

    But that bubble of hope will be very brief, and everyone should be able to see that much more pain is on the horizon.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/8-million-more-living-in-poverty-9-million-small-businesses-in-danger-of-closing-10-million-behind-on-rent

    2. However, in the short-term economic conditions should stabilize somewhat thanks to the huge stimulus payments that the government will be sending out.

      The temptation to have more of them will be there, and if I know the people who are “in charge” now, there will be another stim package later this year, and maybe rumblings of UBI.

      One thing is certain, the millions of small businesses that die, and the jobs that die with them, won’t be coming back anytime soon, if ever. I’m sure behemoths like Amazon and Walmart will be fine.

      1. Our corrupt Government made sure that Big Corporations got the Lions share of relief packages, as well as most being able to operate during the Pandemic. They targeted small business as being not essential. The destruction of these small business only serves to make the Big Monopolies more powerful.
        And they aren’t talking about how much money went to the Medical Cartel for faked Covid cases, and now vaccine disbursement, that might be endless going into the future.
        First, you don’t vaccine the World over a disease that doesn’t effect 98.8% of the population, according to Expert Doctors I heard, who now have been censored now. Further, these credible Doctors in summary said that they were shocked that the FDA even approved these vaccines.
        Also, It’s not acceptable that the Covid test wasn’t accurate to begin with.
        Basically , this was a fraud that the Medical Cartel and Big Pharma in collusion with other Big Globalist and fake Globalist own Media did to criminally steal a election, destroy their political rivals, and lock down populations and do a criminal power grab . This is the sole reason for the timed censoring of news, dispute, and exposure of their epic fraud. So you get one narrative and one narrative only. They are now censoring evidence coming in of adverse reactions to the vaccines, as well as deaths.
        Prior to this Pandemic, a million people per year in US were dying from Big Pharma meds by taking meds exactly as prescribed. So, the acceptable levels of adverse reactions to drugs was unacceptable to begin with.
        I see all this as a collusion by a number of big Monopolies to exercise a criminal power grab of our Government using a fake Pandemic , while they looted the tax coffers to enrich the Big Monopolies, while destroying people’s lives in this epic crime again humanity.

  28. It’s not surprising that people are going along with the current mask mandates.
    First you can’t get food at grocery stores if you don’t comply.
    Second, your subjected to heavy fines or incarnations if you don’t comply.
    Just wait until they make vaccines required before you can get food or enter any public business, or travel or do anything because that’s where this is leading.
    So, people might dislike the fact that I’m so critical of the Medical Cartel, especially Big Pharma, but sadly they are being Fraudulent and silencing any good doctors that don’t agree with what they are doing.

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