The Largest Surplus Of Properties Since The Advent Of Democracy
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Stella Guan’s offer on a ‘beautiful’ Santa Clarita house was accepted in August. She paid roughly $600,000 for the house. But after sleeping there for only a few nights, she had an unfortunate realization. ‘I was like ‘uh oh, I hate this house,’ she recalls. ‘I hate this house so much. I should have seen all of the warning signs, but the pandemic housing fever got the better of me.'”
“Ms. Guan had a good experience with her first home purchase, a New Jersey condo, and with interest rates low, she was eager to jump into the California market. ‘I thought it’s going to be the same as New Jersey. I’ll enjoy the ownership and make money in a few years.’ She sold the house a few months after buying it. After the repairs, agents’ fees and transaction costs, she says, ‘I lost a lot of money. It still hurts,’ she says, but ‘it’s just good to have my money back and move on to other things. And never see the house again.'”
“‘Once everything is lifted July 1, it’s full-on rollercoaster in,’ says Priscilla Abugaber-Mercado, a senior case manager for San Diego Evictions. Relief is something she says landlords need desperately. She says the firm gets calls every day from landlords who need to move back into their own rental properties but can’t. ‘We have tons of owners who are losing their properties because they don’t have rental income,’ says Abugaber-Mercado.”
“New York City’s apartment market went through a nearly unthinkable 2020, as residents left en masse, vacancies skyrocketed in a matter of weeks and rents collapsed as a result. In January, Manhattan net effective rents fell 19% year-over-year, the second-worst month on record, behind November’s 21.7% decline, according to Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraiser & Consultants. Any landlord offering a rent drop of over 15% average is simply trying to buy time, Joy Construction Corp. principal Eli Weiss said.”
“Kenneth Morrison, president of Lemor Realty Corp., said he usually fills his apartments before they become vacant. In September, tenants paying $3,200 per month for a two-bedroom, two-bathroom in Harlem moved out, and it took him until this month to find new tenants to fill the space, he said. To get the deal done, he brought the rent down to $2,700 per month and paid the broker’s fee. ‘This has never happened before,’ he said.”
“In Toronto, lots of movement is happening in the stretches of downtown. At the same time, landlords who own duplexes and triplexes in such neighbourhoods are having trouble finding tenants during the pandemic. Changes to the city’s short-term rental rules also mean that landlords cannot easily earn income from Airbnb and other platforms. ‘I am noticing an uptick in investor selling,’ says Cameron Miller, a real estate agent in Toronto. ‘A lot of people are throwing in the towel.'”
“In the 416 area code, the average price of a condo apartment fell 8 per cent last month compared with January, 2020, according to TRREB. In March of last year, Mr. Miller evaluated a condo unit with two bedrooms and two bathrooms in 1,000 square feet of living space for a couple who were thinking of selling. At that time, he estimated the unit would sell for $730,000. The owners held off until last month. The property stayed on the market for just under 30 days before selling $650,000.”
“The pair are snowbirds who typically spend their winters down south and are willing to rent during the months they are in Toronto, he says. They were disappointed to leave money on the table but wanted the certainty of selling now in case the market softens further. ‘They cashed out,’ he says. ‘They want to live a rental lifestyle.'”
“The sharp fall in demand due to the pandemic, has lead some landlords to slash prices to appeal to tenants. Across central London, reductions of more than 25 per cent have become commonplace, according to homes listed for rent on Zoopla and Rightmove. Areas that have faced the biggest fall in rents are those in the priciest neighbourhoods in central London. The postcode where the rent had fallen furthest year on year was EC3 (Aldgate), with prices down by an average of 26 per cent. Rents in SW1 (Westminster/Belgravia/Pimlico) were down 23 per cent and, prices in EC2 (Bishopsgate/Cheapside) fell 21 per cent.”
“The fall in rent prices is no longer a big-city phenomenon in Spain. For the first time in years, the average cost of rent in the country is either on a downward trend or stagnating. ‘In the average regional capital, the discrepancy between [the cheapest and most expensive] rents may be 30%, but in Barcelona or Madrid there is a 200% difference between the most expensive and the cheapest areas,’ says Gonzalo Bernardos, director of the Real Estate Masters course at the University of Barcelona. In other words, the cost of rent in Madrid and Barcelona has further to fall because they the cities ‘have the largest surplus of rental properties since the advent of democracy.'”
“Prices have declined by 16 percent in a year on an average Dubai flat (and four percent in the last three months of 2020 alone). It really is a renter’s market right now, and not just in Dubai. Down in Abu Dhabi there has been a 15 percent yearly fall in apartment prices and a six percent drop from one quarter to the next. If you’ve ever dreamt of living the island life then this is the perfect opportunity as rents tumbled 18.5 percent on Al Reem during 2020, and 8.3 percent from November to December alone.”
“Auctioneers are struggling to find buyers for property worth billions of shillings repossessed from owners that have defaulted on loans. One of the country’s leading auctioneers is looking at a portfolio of more than Sh10.6 billion in residential property, as well as acres of land, some which have failed to find buyers for more than a year, even as more assets are expected to be repossessed by lenders in the coming months.”
“An auctioneer who spoke to The Standard said much of the properties listed for auction in the daily newspapers in recent weeks were carried over from last year. ‘Not much has changed in terms of properties up for auction this year and some of the properties you see advertised in the papers are those that did not get buyers last year,’ said the auctioneer.”
“For home-seekers and investors, is the auction market now offering value-worthy picks? A check with auction houses show that indeed, prices on the foreclosure market have slumped to as much as 30% to 40% below market value. ‘These are the fire sales happening in the south,’ KGV International Property Consultants executive director Samuel Tan tells EdgeProp. ‘Conventionally in Malaysia, the reserve prices will be reduced by 10% each time it is re-auctioned. In a sense these are considered fire-sales, especially if they have gone through five rounds of reduction.'”
“The Philippine property sector is not out of the woods yet as sluggish economic and business conditions continue to jack up office, residential, retail and hotel vacancies, property consulting firm Colliers International Philippines said. Residential vacancy rate in Metro Manila hit an all-time high of 15.6 percent in 2020 and will likely worsen further to 16.9 percent, especially in business districts with substantial stock such as the Bay Area and Bonifacio Global City, Joe Roi Bondoc, associate director at Colliers Philippines, said.”
“January’s chill appears to have permeated the month’s condominium property market. Sen Sok offers the lowest median sale price for condominium units in Phnom Penh as of January 2021. Sen Sok condominiums saw a downward trend of 20% resulting in a median sale price of $95,000. Developers have been moving their focus away from foreign buyers and instead have turned their attention towards the local market. Sen Sok’s condominium market reflects this shift as a flurry of new developments are mostly offering projects with adjusted payment plans and an overall more attractive asking price for local buyers.”
“New Zealand has generations of people who believe that property prices increase constantly and those who have borrowed too much could – in a worst-case scenario – be caught in a horror scenario of negative equity and ongoing debt. ‘I am very worried about all those people from generations who have jumped into the housing market, some of them at any cost,’ says Tony Coleman, managing director of NZ Gold Merchants. ‘The government and the Reserve Bank tell us they can fix the runaway housing prices issue – but they can’t.'”
“Coleman, a close follower of New Zealand’s economic trends, believes our falsely inflated house prices will have a hard landing eventually – though he predicts a ‘squeeze, not a whack.’ ‘I think some people have gone ‘all in’ to own a house and will be trapped; they will be unable to sell, their standard of living will drop tremendously as their obligation to pay the bank back will become a priority. Some could lose the house and negative equity [where more is owed than the house value] could apply – so they will still be paying off a debt because of the type of contracts we use here in New Zealand.'”
“The banks’ use of low interest rates to ‘smooth out’ the boom/bust syndrome of the business cycle has fuelled the investment in housing, pushing up prices and increasing the risk, he says. The government’s recent guarantee to the banks on new mortgage lending, and allowing big banks to offer a mortgage holiday to those most affected by Covid-19, has eased some of the burden. ‘But I do not believe this game of musical chairs can continue for much longer,’ says Coleman. ‘When the music stops, many of us will be left standing without a chair to sit on.'”
Comments are closed.
‘I thought it’s going to be the same as New Jersey. I’ll enjoy the ownership and make money in a few years…I lost a lot of money. It still hurts’
Wa?
BTW, I gotta catch an early flight tomorrow, so postings and such may be delayed.
I want to thank the reader who sent me this WSJ article as I recently unsubscribed. I was given instructions to use outlook to access the story but ended up not using it because Fox picked up this tale of suckers woe. But the outlook info would be good to share for future use.
Actually I get a lot of valuable links from readers and don’t mention it like I should. Thanks to everyone who sends these in, it’s greatly appreciated.
unfortunately the way i get the links – it seems to only be per story link only.
Finally, they were able to buy a four-bedroom house they loved in the East Bay, paying about $100,000 over the $1.89 million asking price to beat out another bidder.
I remember when the east bay was the ghetto part of the bay area. Now houses there cost $2M.
‘At that time, he estimated the unit would sell for $730,000. The owners held off until last month. The property stayed on the market for just under 30 days before selling $650,000’
Don’t give it away.
‘They were disappointed to leave money on the table but wanted the certainty of selling now in case the market softens further’
UHS in Toronto say condos red-hotcakes recently. I guess they claimed another batch of softened further.
‘Sen Sok condominiums saw a downward trend of 20% resulting in a median sale price of $95,000. Developers have been moving their focus away from foreign buyers and instead have turned their attention towards the local market’
Relying on Chinese buyers strikes again. These Asian airbox markets are seriously fooked. You know, Malaysia, the Philippines, Cambodia, etc, these make up a large part of the worlds population!
Thailand is flat out a RE/economic disaster.
‘the pandemic has upended Thai transport businesses, leaving many drivers and owners struggling to make ends meet, while a survey predicted Lunar New Year spending would suffer its sharpest fall in 13 years. “These tuk tuks have been parked for a year…you can see them all covered with dust,” said garage owner Kraisak Kulkiatprasert, who now rents out fewer than 10 vehicles a day, despite having slashed rentals, versus more than 100 earlier.’
‘Parked in rows with many gathering dust and cobwebs, hundreds of “tuk tuk” motorised rickshaws, tour buses and boats lie silent across the Thai capital of Bangkok, after suffering a twin blow from the coronavirus pandemic and a lack of foreign tourists.’
‘Celebrations of the Lunar New Year, which begins on Friday, normally bring a spike in spending and travel among Thais and an influx of visitors from China and elsewhere in Asia. But the pandemic has upended Thai transport businesses, leaving many drivers and owners struggling to make ends meet, while a survey predicted Lunar New Year spending would suffer its sharpest fall in 13 years.’
“These tuk tuks have been parked for a year…you can see them all covered with dust,” said garage owner Kraisak Kulkiatprasert, who now rents out fewer than 10 vehicles a day, despite having slashed rentals, versus more than 100 earlier. “I will monitor the situation for another year,” he added. “If it doesn’t get better, I will have to shut down.”
‘Campon Taikae, a 50-year-old tuk tuk driver, said he had earned only 50 baht ($1.70) after driving for hours a day earlier, but felt he had no chance of finding another job. In another part of Bangkok, tour buses are parked in long lines, devoid of their tourist passengers.’
“Before the COVID pandemic, I’ve never been short of work,” said driver Tossaporn Rakratchakarn, as he cleaned his vehicle’s dust-laden windshield. “I usually drop tourists off and pick another group up. It’s been a year now and there’s been no movement at all,” added Tossaporn, who had even returned to his home village at one point, to look after a fishpond.’
‘Wasuchet Sophonsathien, president of the Thai Transportation Operators Association, said only about a tenth of Thailand’s 40,000 tour buses were still operating. The story is the same for many tour boats and ferries.’
‘Things were completely different from the days in the past when passengers packed his vessel, said Mani Hogkhontod, a 54-year-old boat driver. “I have been thinking about finding a new job, but I am worried that I have to start from zero, because of my work experience and age,” he said.’
https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/health/1443501-thailands-tuk-tuks-tour-buses-and-boats-marooned-at-lunar-new-year
‘returned to his home village at one point, to look after a fishpond’
Near as I can tell from videos, they eat goldfish over there. Which are just carp IIRC.
In the not-too-distant future, roving bands of starving realtors will stage nightly raids on the Koi ponds of their non-selling listings to supplement their food bank pasta and Ramen noodles.
‘Do not listen to estate agents – house prices will go down, not up’
‘The inflationary trend of a few years ago has gone and Covid is not going to bring it back’
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/do-not-listen-to-estate-agents-house-prices-will-go-down-not-up-1.4480537
‘Colorado real estate articles are made possible by our partners FNBO, The great big small bank that supports the local community and economy.’
‘It’s just about time for another episode of “houses that make me resent my one-bedroom apartment”.
‘This Windsor beauty, located at 5991 Last Pointe Drive has just had a price cut of $105,000, making it much more affordable at just…wait for it…$1,895,000. And yes, that was sarcasm. However, at 6,810 square feet, it’s probably worth it, and when you hear about all the crazy features, you may just want to skip a few avocado toasts in order to save up the money.’
‘According to the listing, the home features 7 bedrooms and 7 bathrooms, an executive chef’s kitchen, a great room with 25-foot ceilings, a shower with a steamer, an exercise room, a game room, a pool and jacuzzi, and a vintage wine cellar. There are also stunning views of the Rocky Mountains: so stunning, they honestly look like a screensaver.’
‘Maybe you do a lot of laundry. This house has not one, not two, but three laundry rooms for the messiest of families. By the way, no judgement.’
https://newcountry991.com/dream-1-8-million-windsor-home-has-vintage-wine-cellar-outdoor-pool/
3 laundry rooms is cra cra…
3 laundry rooms is cra cra…
I have noticed that having an oversized laundry room, one that can house 2 washers and 2 driers, is a selling point out here on higher end McMansions, in theory because you can get the laundry done quicker or something.
New washers have a low water requirement so they don’t wash
very well . I bought a Speed queen it gets around the low water law by being labeled commercial. I think there is one Matag model that’s also rated highly. Having twice as many crappy washing machines is a work around ? IDK ?
Funny how government requirements make things worse, and not better.
I remember when I lived in San Diego, some people would go to Tijuana and purchase old school, high volume flush toilets and bring them back to San Diego. I don’t know if that is still allowed.
Years ago I lived in a small apartment complex, but they had a great laundry room with several nice clean Huebsch washers and dryers. Laundry day was a quick affair!
Sounds like a dogwhistle to a clan of immigrants. 7 bedrooms will fit 25 people, and you need 3 laundries for a clan that size.
granted it is on a golf course (worth it for some), but who buy a $1.8 home in fort collins?
Even though it is bubbly in the Fort Collins/Windsor area, that house is an outlier.
‘ In September, tenants paying $3,200 per month for a two-bedroom, two-bathroom in Harlem moved out, and it took him until this month to find new tenants to fill the space, he said. To get the deal done, he brought the rent down to $2,700 per month and paid the broker’s fee. ‘This has never happened before’
That’s the spirit!
A broker’s fee for a residential unit?
I thought that was a CRE thing?
Historically, brokers have tacked a fee of anywhere from 12 to 15 percent of one year’s rent onto a prospective tenants’ cost of renting an apartment—a system that does not exist in many places outside of New York City. (As the New York Times puts it, if you’re renting a $2,500/month apartment, you could be asked to pay as much as $4,500 up front to the broker.) https://ny.curbed.com/2020/2/6/21125413/new-york-rent-laws-broker-fees-real-estate
Boston is one of them. Traditionally, the broker got a months rent hopefully this pandemic will make that practice die.
IIRC, renting in new buildings circumvented brokers. That’s what I did.
‘She says the firm gets calls every day from landlords who need to move back into their own rental properties but can’t’
Move back in? Got multiple shacks and deciding which ones to bail on? Sort of like the mall guys this week. Cherry picking liabilities and stickin’ it to the man! on the rest.
‘We have tons of owners who are losing their properties because they don’t have rental income’
No hand out fer weather?
So liquidity does nothing for insolvency. Sux to be you. But I thought UHS say you can always sale?
Tyler, TX Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Mortgage Defaults And Housing Inventory Skyrockets
https://www.movoto.com/tyler-tx/market-trends/
As one casual observer stated, “Buyers are brain dead.”
I’ll just leave headline out here:
‘There’s never been a time like this’: Wall Street is piling into trading cards as prices soar
Maybe Beanie Babies are about to make a comeback?
Just when you think you’ve seen everything:
———————–
“We realized the potential fractional ownership could have to break down a massive barrier to entry,” said Ezra Levine, the CEO of Collectable, which buys sports cards and converts them into tradable assets registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Collectable distributes individual shares of cards on its platform through initial public offerings. The shares can then be bought and sold as if they were stock in Microsoft (MSFT) or AMC Entertainment (AMC).
The firm has completed roughly 40 IPOs since last fall, and boasts of impressive returns. A 1986 Jordan card that went public at $10 per share in October is now trading at $60 per share, while stock in an autographed James card from 2003 has jumped 50% since late December.
—————————
People are poo-pooing that fuddy duddy gold, but they’ll willingly pay $60 for 1/1000 of a MJ sports card?
[btw the article on cnn business today if you want to look it up.]
Why not? If an imaginary currency can be worth $40,000+ why shouldn’t a trading card that was once packed with bubblegum not be worth more than most people earn in a year?
And just wait until the $1.9T gets handed out. To the moon, Alice!
“Wall Street is piling into trading cards as prices soar”
A great strategy for the public pension plans. Double down!
Speaking of which….
Rosie O’Donnell still can’t sell her $6M NJ home after 5 years (2/10/2021)
“The New Jersey property has been on the market for the past five years — and still can’t find a buyer, The Post can report.
O’Donnell, 58, who is currently filming the new season of Showtime’s “The L Word,” first bought the home in 2013 for $6.3 million.
According to New Jersey property records, she decided to list the home two years later, in July 2015, for nearly $7 million. But with no offers, the former co-host of “The View” relisted the home at what would be an estimated $400,000 loss — that is, if she can sell it.”
https://nypost.com/2021/02/10/rosie-odonnell-still-cant-sell-her-6m-nj-home-after-5-years/
Way, way back I attempted to chat with her brother during a party the locals pols were having in our bar/restaurant. I told him that my daughter loves his sister. He responded with a very aggressive “Why not?” so I thought to myself hoo-kay and walked away.
Actually not a bad home, but $6.5 M seems a tad pricey (depends on the neighborhood). I don’t understand the canopy(?) over the eating bar(?) in the last picture. I wonder if that’s a vintage piece that can be removed.
Not a bad home…
Property taxes are probably $200,000+ per year…
Unless she did a DWI Bruce and tried to claim her house as a “farm.”
DWI Bruce
I hear he did 41 shots. Too soon?
45 steps 🙂
I heard Farmer Bruce the property tax dodge asked everyone to come together in a Supper Bowl commercial now that his boy Kamala is in charge.
New details emerge in Bruce Springsteen DWI arrest
By Christina Carrega and Konstantin Toropin, CNN
February 11, 2021
“SPRINGSTEEN smelt strongly of alcohol coming off his person and had glassy eyes,” the officer said in the statement, adding he “was visibly swaying back and forth while I observed his eyes.”
Springsteen, according to the officer, took 45 steps during the “walk and turn” test “instead of the instructed 18.”
Sounds like it 🥳; thanks for the details. Never been a fan of his. Apologies for the now probably obscure reference to “American Skin (41 Shots)”. We have a few cops in the family. At the time they were all vilified (thanks, Bruce) for what was a tragic accident.
“Rosie O’Donnell still can’t sell her $6M NJ home after 5 years”
That’s what happens when you pay a grossly inflated price for a rapidly depreciating asset, in this case, a house.
Now prices are cratering.
But…but…
Property ladder.
Aurora, CO Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Denver Area Sinks Deeper In Mortgage Defaults And Excess, Empty Housing Inventory
https://www.movoto.com/aurora-co/market-trends/
As a noted economist said, “I can ask $50,000 for my run down 10 year old Chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that price? So it is with all depreciating assets like houses and cars.”
Could your portfolio withstand a 55% drop in equities?
The Financial Times
Bank stress tests
Fed to test banks’ ability to withstand 55% fall in equity prices
Regulators lay out criteria for annual stress exercise with stocks at record highs
The Federal Reserve undertook an additional stress test last year to test banks’ resilience through the pandemic
The Federal Reserve undertook an additional stress test last year to test banks’ resilience through the pandemic
© REUTERS
Laura Noonan in New York and James Politi in Washington
2 hours ago
The largest US banks will have to prove they can withstand the US stock market crashing by 55 per cent, regulators said on Friday, outlining the parameters for annual stress tests that decide how much banks can pay out to their shareholders.
The striking scenario for a huge decline in equity prices comes as US and global stocks touched record highs earlier this week, fuelling fears of a bubble.
The Federal Reserve laid out the terms of its annual exercise on Friday, which apply to the largest 19 banks led by JPMorgan Chase. It includes a sharper fall in economic output than the last scenario, which was used in a special test in September to assess banks’ resilience through the Covid-19 pandemic, but a lower peak in unemployment.
…
Short version: yes.
The song calls out the hypocrisy of the political Left. https://bigleaguepolitics.com/rapper-tom-macdonalds-fake-woke-hit-removed-from-apple-store-in-left-wing-censorship-move/
Meanwhile I assume that the n-bomb WAP brigade is still winning Grammys.
Trump is gone; why are they still doing this other than to expose themselves even further?
Foaming at the mouth is easier than working toward “righting the wrongs” of the past couple of centuries.
Our youth and the future. Next generation of leaders.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/meet-the-student-loan-borrowers-who-are-refusing-to-pay-their-debt.html
“Lezan ended up attending Benedictine University and the Art Institute of Illinois Chicago, one of the for-profit schools that has come under fire for misleading students about its program and career outcomes. She owes more than $170,000 in student loans.
A well-paying job has been hard to find. Last year, working as an adjunct professor and freelancer, she made $28,000. “Being Hispanic and a woman, I’m up against additional obstacles,” she said.”
Don’t blame me for a worthless liberal arts degree! It was the systemic racism!!!
Don’t blame me for a worthless liberal arts degree! It was the systemic racism!!!
“Math is hard!” – Barbie
Remember the uproar over that? But deep down, people know it’s true, which is why so many major in victims studies or any major that doesn’t require Math (or “Maths” as the Brits would say).
“Being Hispanic and a woman, I’m up against additional obstacles,” she said.
Lacking common sense is an obstacle.
OK, I just saw Trump Lawyers do a great job on the Defense case on this bogus Impeachment.
OK, I just saw Trump Lawyers do a great job on the Defense case on this bogus Impeachment.’
fight fight fight
You have to be joking. I heard that ex-President Trump was screaming at his TV during their bumbling testimony.
I suppose that was fake nooze…
fake nooze likes to portray DJT as a petulant child.
the news doesn’t have to know something to say something.
And even if they know, like how the witch hunt would not end with a conviction, they pretended as though it would.
From the Malaysia Article
AuctionGuru.com.my executive director Gary Chia said: The pricing is attractive, but it is advisable to buy [only] if you need it,” he stresses.
The Malaysian Auction guy is saying don’t buy unless you need it!
Can you imagine a REIC person saying this in the USA or Canada or England, or Aust. or?
Most foreign media/REIC is more honest than the US. I’m glad some people go to the links and read. There’s usually stuff I can’t include because of space, etc.
wsj series on ‘After Covid’. There is likely to be much more churn in the cities’ downtowns. I think that folks underestimate how drastic this will be, and the resulting impact on previously high housing costs areas.
“The work-from-home arrangements many companies and workers have cobbled together could have lasting effects. Having shown it can be done, more people might opt to work from home once or twice a week or even permanently. As a result, there would be less demand for downtown office space and fewer sales at local eateries, making commercial real estate in cities less desirable. Business travel could also fail to recover fully with the adoption of remote-meeting technologies obviating the need for many trips. Airlines, hotels and convention centers could find that some of the business they lost during the pandemic has been lost for good.”
…
“The longer they remain out of work, the more their skills erode and the harder it is for them to find work again. That, in turn, can lower the pace at which the economy is able to grow. Those who work in some of the hardest-hit industries, such as restaurants and hotels, could have the hardest time overcoming the setbacks suffered from the crisis. The gaps between rich and poor could widen as a result.”
—
https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-covid-normal-could-be-profoundly-different-11605868202
Business travel could also fail to recover fully with the adoption of remote-meeting technologies obviating the need for many trips.
In my industry, unless you are “customer facing” (as in sales, closing large deals), this is the way it has been for years. Heck, we used good ol’ phone conferences before skype or zoom arrived.
I don’t believe annual conferences will suffer that much. Businessmen (and it’s still mostly men) love nothing more than hobnobbing and dealmaking with their industry buddies in person, and conferences with coffee and snackies and lots of hotel hidey-holes is a great place to do it. Not to mention getting drunk every night in the hospitality suites.
Individual business travel will take a hit. It will be a nice break for guys who are traveling 3-4 times/month for little meetings; just get on the TEAMS or the WEBEX. That’s not good for airlines. IIUC, last-minute weekday business travel is where most of their profits lie.
“I don’t believe annual conferences will suffer that much.”
Private sector, government, or both?
I find it hard to imagine that bosses won’t be tempted to push a lot more face time between people in geographically diverse locations into free online platforms, rather than the expensive travel driven realm of pre-2020. Budget managers with green eyeshades will sharpen their red pencils to cut out travel to meetings for all but essential purposes. Daily commutes will be replaced by occasional trips to the office, supplemented by teleconferences to maintain a cohesive workforce, schedule coordination, and accountability for deliverables. Online education will represent a much larger share of higher education activity after the pandemic than before.
This all implies a major permanent reduction in demand for commuter goods and services (fuel, automobiles, Lyft rides, etc), hotel accomodations and other temporary housing (e.g. luxury campus housing) and air travel. Investment, production and employment in these sectors will never return to pre-2020 levels, regardless of how large a stimulus package is passed.
air travel
Which is really, really bad news for Boeing and Airbus.
I haven’t been on a company paid trip since 2017. I might never go on one again.
No, honestly, I think they’re going to keep at least the annual conferences, the big ones in hotels and convention centers with thousands of attendees, multiple break-out rooms, and a product trade show. And yeah, I think bosses will allow 1-2 big trips like that per year. As you said, companies would already be saving millions on office space, commutes, and smaller trips throughout the year. It’s worth saving up for the big press-the-flesh event.
I don’t know about yous guyz, but seeing the inside of everybody’s living rooms has gotten really old.
“It’s worth saving up for the big press-the-flesh event.”
For the high-libido folks these adultery business trips are about survival.
It’s worth saving up for the big press-the-flesh event.
These events have already gone online and virtual. Yeah, the big cheeses, the guys who authorize the big deals, they will continue to travel.
Yeah, the WEF won’t meet on zoom. But if your new boss is out of town, you will never meet face to face. And I’ve got news for you, they don’t care if you’re tired of seeing other people’s living rooms. The travel budgets have been trimmed, permanently.
seeing the inside of everybody’s living rooms has gotten really old
No decorating ideas?
inside of everybody’s living rooms
How about the human nature of the ruling class?
My group at work recently ran a series of job interviews for an open position. One of the candidates’ wives had just given birth, and the nursery where he was during the interview was bedecked in toy animals.
“they want to live a rental lifestyle”
WIN. I’m in Atlanta right now.
From today’s Colorado Sun:
Colorado wants to put electric vehicle charging stations in every state park. Now it must find funding.
“Now it must find funding”
So, in other words, these charging stations are expected to be white elephants that few will use and they won’t pay their own way, thus they require subsidies and sponsorships.
“Coloradans should not have to choose between driving an EV and visiting the places they love,” Environment Colorado state director Hannah Collazo said
Are there gas stations in Colorado state parks? Not that I know of. Yet that isn’t an issue for those who do not drive coal powered cars. If I drive to a state park it’s my responsibility to keep my tank from going empty, to plan accordingly and fill up when I can. I’m sure that if EV owners plan ahead, they will find privately owned charging stations on the way to the state parks. Yeah, they might not be at the most convenient locations, there might be a line and an extra stop or two might be required. That is the price you pay for being an early adopter.
Now, if tree huggers are willing to fully pay out of their own pockets for the installation of these charging stations, they can knock themselves out. But that isn’t gonna happen. What will happen will be a prop on the ballot to raise taxes to pay for these charging stations no one will use (and maybe even subsidize the electricity). And given the new era of ballot box stuffing, I expect that they will “pass”.
I find that Democratic projects are either scams, a way to divert tax funds to their friends , including the Monopolies, or useless in terms of really being needed. Welfare was a way to capture votes, etc etc. Look how bad Democratic cities are run.
This is what happens when Politicians become corrupt and abuse the tax coffers.
The decisions never make any sense, and problems are never solved and go on for years.
Not to say that the Republican party doesn’t have corruption in that they are pawns for the Globalist Monopolies also.
I say a new Party needs to be formed If the people want to take back the Government, because the Swamp is so corrupted it’s become a one party system of sell outs.
Term limits would help, as well as limiting the money in Politics. But anything like that those creeps will never vote for because it would limit government for themselves.
I park my V8 F150 in the front row electric charging spots all the time. They’re never used anyway; they’re just a tax write off and virtue-signal for the grocery stores putting them in anyway. F-em.
Would that be “vice signaling”?
The local natural foods store has a couple of charging spaces, but they’re off to the side. It’s not as if they get a prominent space in the front row.
I double checked the article. There was no estimate provided for the cost of installing the charging stations, meaning that it will be expensive.
I loved this line:
Ben Westby, who leads an EV and Tesla users club on the Western Slope, said a recently installed charging station at Montrose was getting heavy use by other drivers when he was on a road trip to Ridgeway State Park.
So some dude with an expensive Tesla wants poor people who drive beaters to pay to install charging stations so he doesn’t have to wait in line in Montrose. How about he and his club raise the funds and build a station in Montrose, Ridgway or Ouray? If the demand is there they should make money, right?
Deplorable said that they used to charge $1000 for a residential hookup, and would raise that to $3000 if it became more in demand. Probably $5000 once you get government OPM involved.
If construction comes to a grinding halt as many here predict, I suspect that there might be some underemployed electricians.
Getting the actual hardware to install could be trickier. From what I’ve heard even ordinary home appliances are back ordered for months.
I’m hoping for a recession to put a dent in the building trades. There’s a few house projects I’d like to do in the next couple of years.
a few house projects
To increase the resale value?
I’m thinking stuff like insulation and installing new lighting fixtures (I have bare light bulbs in the hallway). Maybe some landscaping. I suppose you could say they would increase the house value, but these aren’t vanity projects.
Do you find the stratospheric rise of intrinsically worthless cryptos difficult to comprehend?
Or is it not substantively different than the myriad other bubbles of recent years in stocks, junk bonds, beanie babies, housing etc?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dogecoin-founder-says-cryptos-rise-is-not-something-i-can-comprehend-11613160282?mod=home-page
Now that the global economy is drowning in Yellen bux, are you ready for more Yellen bux?
The Financial Times
Capital markets
Investors pour record $58bn into global stock funds in single week
Surge of inflows into riskier assets is latest sign of investor exuberance
Pedestrians pass the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan. The US had the lion’s share of overall stock inflows in the week to Wednesday, at $36.3bn
The US had the lion’s share of overall stock inflows in the week to Wednesday, at $36.3bn
© AP
Adam Samson in London and Mamta Badkar in New York yesterday
Investors poured a record $58bn into stock funds this week while slashing their cash holdings, in the latest sign of the fervour sweeping global financial markets.
Technology-focused funds were at the centre of the surge, with net inflows reaching an all-time high of $5.4bn in the week to Wednesday, according to EPFR data collated by Bank of America. The US had the lion’s share of overall stock inflows, at $36.3bn.
Investors also piled $13.1bn into global bond funds while pulling $10.6bn from their cash piles.
The data underline how historically low interest rates and expectations for a big rebound this year in global economic growth have whet investors’ appetite for riskier assets. The shift is causing rising unease among some investors and analysts, who worry that asset prices have become overextended.
Investor bullishness has been stoked by hopes that coronavirus vaccines are speeding up the fightback against the pandemic and that US president Joe Biden’s $1.9tn stimulus proposal will help the economy recover from the coronavirus-driven recession.
US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen on Friday told finance ministers and central bank governors from Group of Seven nations that “the time to go big is now” as she urged further fiscal aid to support a lasting recovery.
…
Nothing to see here, folks…no bubble. Our new Treasury Secretary has offered her personal assurances that financial crises are henceforth unpossible. So feel free to borrow as much money as possible and plow it into stocks with the certainty that prices have only further to rise from here. There’s no permanently high plateau…the first derivative of prices is positive and steadily increasing.
“$1.9tn stimulus proposal”
Does ‘go big’ refer to this, or to a coordinated international ramp up of fiscal and monetary stonkulus of which $1.9 billion merely represents the tip of the iceberg?
At any rate, more economic waste driven by an endless glut of easy money lies in store, along the lines of our present day luxury condo glut and bubbles in worthless shit like Green energy, crypto and GameStop stock. The manic gambling binge is funded by the elimination of low risk returns to savings of households who prefer financial security to reckless gambling binges.
Party on, @Janet!
It’s a outrage that Pelosi and the Dems spent over 16 million on the first Impeachment Trial using taxpayers funds.
Than over 45 million on the FBI investigation on the Russian Hoax. Than most likely over 16 million on Impeachment number two.
So, add this waste, we are well over 100 million payed by the tax payers for the Dem Patty to try to take out their political rival Trump.
Talk about a serious abuse of tax payer funds.
And, no convictions in these bogus attacks that were swear campaigns.
100 million could of paid for something beneficial for the US, but no we have this abuse of power by that traitor Pelosi and the FBI.
A bunch of gangsters running the Country.
100 million
That’s merely a distraction while Trillions are being siphoned off. It’s less than an advert campaign.
Indeed, the government easily wastes that kind of money on a daily basis, and probably a whole lot more