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Sellers Are Getting More Flexible As Their Once-Unwavering Trust Falters

A report from Reuters. “Investors fueling an initial public offering bonanza are snubbing many U.S. mortgage providers’ stock market debuts over concerns that the sector might have reached its peak. ‘Investors don’t like buying into a company at the start of a down cycle, and mortgage originations are an extremely cyclical business,’ said Matthew Kennedy, a senior strategist at IPO-focused research firm Renaissance Capital.”

“LoanDepot Inc was forced to cut its IPO by 75% to $54 million this month, after investors balked at its request to be valued as highly as $6.8 billion. Home Point Capital Inc downsized its IPO by 40% at the end of January to $94 million, giving up hopes of an up-to-$2.9 billion valuation. Two other mortgage vendors, AmeriHome and Caliber Home Loans, pulled their IPOs in October.”

From Mortgage Professional America. “The Cinderella story of mortgage companies setting up IPOs after a record 2020 has been marred somewhat in recent weeks. Some stocks have underperformed despite record earnings after going public, while other IPOs have been revised down or postponed before the listing day. Investors, it seems, remain unenthused about some of these mortgage companies despite continued record-breaking earnings and huge volumes.”

“‘You have to ask yourself why these companies are going public. In the mortgage industry it’s because they think this is the most booming time they’re ever going to have. In equities you’re always forward-looking, and investors are asking how much euphoria we can have a year from now,’ said Jarred Kessler CEO of proptech firm EasyKnock. ‘It’s all about managing expectations, and when you surprise those expectations, that’s when you see those 20%-30% drops in stocks. That’s usually the reason. It’s that or it’s fraud.'”

The Washington Post. “As many businesses remain shuttered and stimulus payments run out, the economic crisis created by the coronavirus pandemic continues to batter the District’s residential real estate market and small landlords in particular. ‘The kind of losses that small landlords are experiencing are not sustainable,’ said Dean Hunter, the Small Multifamily Owners Association’s president. ‘Landlords are seeing a 40 percent decline in revenue but the mortgage, utilities and common-area bills are still 100 percent due.'”

“‘I had to lower the rent 25 percent to accommodate the fact that my tenants lost their jobs/had reduced hours due to Covid,’ one respondent wrote. ‘Their rent payments only cover my mortgage and I’m losing money by renting my property once I account for utilities and repairs.'”

From Boston Magazine in Massachusetts. “By the end of 2020, the median sale price for single-family homes outside of Boston had jumped $50,000 since March, per the Greater Boston Real Estate Board. Meanwhile, in the city, the median sale price for a condo dropped by more than $40,000 in the same time period. It seemed, for a while, that Boston was losing its appeal to, well, just about every demographic group.”

“‘There are opportunities available in the city that haven’t been available in years,’ says Dana Bull, a real estate agent with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. These days, sellers are getting more flexible with prices and terms as their once-unwavering trust in the city market falters. ‘That’s appealing for people who have been wanting to buy in the city for a couple years and haven’t been able to pull the trigger because they haven’t felt like they’re coming at the market from a position of strength.'”

“Rentals are the other COVID jackpot for those on the hunt for city housing. The average cost for an apartment in Boston plummeted more than 20 percent from March to December, according to the rental site Apartment List.”

From Mansion Global on New York. “Some wealthy financiers are trying to unload their homes in New York. ‘If you think of New York City as a ballet, right now the city is at intermission,’ said real-estate agent Jason Haber. ‘During intermission, some people get restless and don’t come back for the next act. That’s what’s happening now.'”

The Wall Street Journal on New York. “Extell Development has sold a large stake in two of its luxury apartment buildings as it raises cash amid a still-struggling high-end condo market. RXR Realty bought a 42% stake in a two-building, 750-unit Extell Development portfolio for roughly $300M as the Manhattan rental market continues to hurt amid the coronavirus pandemic, the Financial Times reports.”

“The buildings at 555 10th Ave. in Hudson Yards and 510 East 14th St. in the East Village, were valued at around $800M at the time of the sale, or $200M less than they were at before the pandemic, according to the FT. In January, rents in Manhattan were down 19% year-over-year, the second-lowest point since the pandemic took hold in the city. While experts say rents may have hit their lowest point in November — when prices were down 21.7% year-over-year — the recovery will be a slow one.”

“The developer has a $900M construction loan on the project from JPMorgan Chase that matures this year, and not many of the condos, which were projected at a $4B sellout, have yet been sold. This comes amid a tumultuous time for the city’s residential sales market, particularly at the top of the market. The condo market has been oversupplied since before the pandemic took hold and the health crisis only made it worse. As of June, there were 15,000 unsold units throughout the city, roughly 15% of which were split among six buildings.”

The Review Journal on Nevada. “When the Drew Las Vegas changed hands this month, the unfinished megaresort wasn’t acquired through a typical sale. Clark County records show that new owners acquired debt on the north Strip hotel-casino project Feb. 11 and, the same day, gained ownership of the property from developer Steve Witkoff through a ‘deed in lieu of foreclosure.'”

“Las Vegas real estate broker Michael Parks, a hotel-casino specialist with CBRE Group, said a deed in lieu is typically undertaken because a property is in financial distress, and such transactions are ‘more prevalent in times of economic turmoil.’ He also confirmed that a deed in lieu might be recorded because a property owner is underwater, meaning their mortgage debt outweighs the real estate’s value. Some borrowers, he said, simply ‘give up and give it back to the bank.'”

From Bisnow South Florida. “A Miami-area mall has been seized by its lender, which won a Feb. 10 foreclosure auction with a $2,600 credit bid, the South Florida Business Journal reported. Wells Fargo Bank, trustee for the CMBS trust that issued the loan for the 977K SF Southland Mall in Cutler Bay, Florida, filed a foreclosure lawsuit in June and won a judgment of $68.7M in principal and interest. The auction was scheduled after the court ruling was handed down.”

“Investcorp’s $65M commercial mortgage-backed securities loan, issued in 2014, went into special servicing in April 2020. As the coronavirus pandemic was bearing down and tenants struggled, Investcorp decided to let the property go, The Real Deal reported last year.”

The New York Post. “It really must be the money. Rapper Nelly, born Cornell Iral Haynes Jr., has already found a buyer for his abandoned St. Louis-area home only days after it hit the market, The Post can report. The 12-acre estate was first listed on Feb. 11, only to have an offer Feb. 18, Missouri property records show. The price point, at $600,000, must have been appealing enough for someone to snatch up the property quickly. “

“But whoever the new owner is will have a lot of work on their hands to get the place up and running. With no plumbing, no flooring and plenty of renovations left to be done, this is what those in the biz call a ‘fixer-upper.’ Nelly, 46, bought the home back in 2002 for an estimated $2 million, hoping to flip it. But the mansion has sat idle for the past two decades. It seems this year, the singer decided to cut his losses and sell the property for cheap.”

This Post Has 115 Comments
    1. “Plans for the Fontainebleau were unveiled in 2005, and the project, led by Soffer and former Las Vegas casino executive Glenn Schaeffer, broke ground in 2007. But the real estate market soon crashed, the economy spiraled, and the project went bankrupt in 2009.

      Billionaire Carl Icahn acquired the mothballed resort in 2010 for around $150 million and, after leaving it largely untouched, sold it in 2017 for $600 million to Witkoff and Miami real estate firm New Valley, a subsidiary of cigarette maker the Vector Group.”

      There’s your bubble right there. He simply paid too much for the land!

      1. For a minute I thought they were referring to the Fontainebleau in Miami Beach. That one appears to be doing fine. I’ve been to Vegas a few times. No thanks.

        1. Stay at the Bellagio and cross the street for a few meals at Mon Ami Gabi. Il Mulino is the best Italian food you’ll ever have but it comes with a hefty check. Ah, the good old days before having a kid.

          1. “Ah, the good old days before having a kid.”

            Haha, or two.

            I just bought my daughter a 2016 Honda Accord Coupe V6 with only 25k miles because her current car has 160k miles, and she’s not mechanically inclined. She’s also under-employed, and that won’t change soon enough, so it’s the Bank of Dad to the rescue!

  1. ‘You have to ask yourself why these companies are going public. In the mortgage industry it’s because they think this is the most booming time they’re ever going to have. In equities you’re always forward-looking, and investors are asking how much euphoria we can have a year from now’

    This issue is being avoided by the REIC like the plague. People are throwing billions at worthless fake assets and these subprime non-bank outfits are on their knees begging.

    1. I live just outside Orlando proper on the west side. Everything in this area west of highway 429 is selling fast and prices have skyrocketed.

        1. I am here and actively following real estate in my vicinity. I am looking for a new house for my daughter who is selling her house. So do I believe my eyes and realtor.com listings and reported sales or your armchair view from afar.

          1. I remember back in 2011 he was saying that Denver was cratering. A coworker put her house on the market on a Friday and a bidding war ensued. She had several offers the next day.

  2. ‘The developer has a $900M construction loan on the project from JPMorgan Chase that matures this year, and not many of the condos, which were projected at a $4B sellout, have yet been sold…As of June, there were 15,000 unsold units throughout the city, roughly 15% of which were split among six buildings’

    You only hear about safe deposit boxes in the sky at the HBB anymore.

  3. ‘A former Texas bank president who issued millions of dollars in fake loans over almost a decade and set a fire to try to cover up the fraud was sentenced to eight years in prison Tuesday, prosecutors said.’

    ‘The woman, Anita Gail Moody, 57, pleaded guilty in June to conspiracy to commit bank fraud and arson. She was ordered to pay more than $11 million in restitution, which is what Enloe State Bank, which she ran, lost, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Texas said.’

    ‘Moody was president of the bank in Cooper, around 80 miles northeast of Dallas, and the fraud she pleaded guilty to began in 2012. In May 2019 — a day before the Texas Banking Department was scheduled to conduct a review — Moody set a fire in the bank boardroom with files left on a table, all of which were burned, according to prosecutors.’

    ‘She had created more than 100 fraudulent loans over the years, prosecutors said in court documents.’

    ‘She used some of the money on her boyfriend’s and friends’ businesses, for family and for her own lifestyle, including a Jeep. Other federal investigators said some of the loans were taken out to pay the interest and principal on the others, so nothing would seem amiss.’

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ex-bank-president-texas-gets-8-years-fake-loans-arson-n1258691

    1. ‘She had created more than 100 fraudulent loans over the years, prosecutors said in court documents.’

      How does the saying go? To cover up a lie, you need to make an even bigger lie.

  4. Of course Alex Jones was first o n this story and now its slowly leaking out
    An Emergency Order from the Biden administration’s Department of Energy shows Texas energy grid operator ERCOT was instructed to stay within green energy standards by purchasing energy from outside the state at a higher cost, throttling power output throughout the state ahead of a catastrophic polar vortex.
    https://yournews.com/2021/02/19/2033550/joe-bidens-dept-of-energy-blocked-texas-from-increasing-power/

    1. “An Emergency Order from the Biden administration’s Department of Energy shows Texas energy grid operator ERCOT was instructed to stay within green energy standards by purchasing energy from outside the state at a higher cost, throttling power output throughout the state ahead of a catastrophic polar vortex.”

      A dude told me he thought they had that story on The CBS Evening News with Norah O’Donnell last night.

      Of course he also told me his neighbor had just returned from Gainesville with a Hefty bag full of magic mushrooms.

  5. “As many businesses remain shuttered and stimulus payments run out, the economic crisis created by the coronavirus pandemic”

    The economic crisis was created by Democrat Party governors and mayors. Everyone knows that COVID is over now. It’s time to send the kids back to school and re-open the economy.

    1. It’s a manufactured mass insanity. The longer it goes on, the more this is revealed. What happened to flattening the curve or whatever? Don’t wear a mask, wear three! We can’t overwhelm the empty hospitals! I see people riding around in their cars by themselves with a mask on, all the time. I also see many people just ignoring the whole thing.

      1. Power mad cow democrat marxists and their propaganda fake legacy media will never give up their newly discovered covid powers.

        It allows them to ignore laws…

        Make up laws…

        Arrest and destroy people at a whim…

        Change election laws to solely benefit themselves…

        Ban any opposing view points

        Steal elections without any questions.

        They will never give up this power willingly.

        1. They will never give up this power willingly.

          This. No matter how bad things get, they will miraculously win elections. year after year.

          1. I’ve heard some say that the pendulum will swing the other way given how far it has swung to the left. I want to believe that this outcome is inevitable. We can only hope and support those who are speaking out.

          2. I think they have been rigging elections for a while now. It’s the only thing that explains how these nuts get elected and inflict their insane policies on the people. Look at how corrupted and dysfunctional the Dem cities are.
            And it’s evident what Entities are behind putting these nuts in power.
            They all chant the talking points along with fake news.
            Elections rigged just like economic systems rigged.
            It goes without saying that unless the people can get elections that aren’t rigged the recourse of the people will continue to be stolen.

          3. I agree with the Longtime Lurker.

            We’re already seeing dependable libs falling victim to the ever-tightening purity requirements. The newest is Rosario Dawson. Dependable lib. GF of Cory Booker. But evidently she is not 100% on the trans train. Bad girl! Go sit in the corner with JK Rowling.

            Eventually, when enough crap gets passed, canceled, and socially credit scored, a reasonable Dem will try to run against these batsh!t commies in a primary. What will happen when half the Dems suddenly find themselves on the wrong side of Dominion’s “election insurance,” and the Supreme Court doesn’t want to rock the boat? Get some popcorn.

          4. The newest is Rosario Dawson. Dependable lib. GF of Cory Booker.
            Rumored to be Booker’s beardBooker’s beard. I don’t care, but you just get sick of politicians and their bs.

          5. The newest is Rosario Dawson.

            Unlike Carano, I think she will survive the cancellation. She’s a POC, a leftist Senator’s squeeze and the whole upcoming and much anticipated Star Wars “Ahsoka” series is built around her, though if filming hasn’t begun, I suppose she could be replaced.

      2. “The longer it goes on, the more this is revealed”

        A five minute comparison of California vs Florida tells you everything you need to know about The Science™.

      1. I’m seeing lots of nonsensical repetitive posts. Having been wisely advised about the folly of arguing with people on the internet, I am doing my best to ignore them.

        However, for the record, 1/3 of my immediate family members have had COVID-19 and survived, a significant fraction of my circle of extended family and close friends had it and survived, and people I have personally known died of COVID-19.

        1. Yah….and tons of people including myself had this FLU last Winter 2019-2020. It’s all a load of poop and just a rebranded flu to smokescreen REPO market failure.

          1. I had it in early 2018. Back then it was called pleurisy. I was over it in a week and nothing was prescribed.

        2. I’m glad to hear about your family and friends who have recovered from COVID. I’m very sorry for your loss regarding those who did not.

          I’ve seen a lot of dying in my family lately (not COVID). I’m lucky to be alive myself (also not COVID). I can only offer one bit of advice to anyone going through illness.

          Fight like hell.

        3. “I’m seeing lots of nonsensical repetitive posts.”

          Considering this is Ben Jones’ blog, and not your personal playpen for low-effort reposts of MarketWatch clickbait headlines, maybe you’ll be seeing more of them.

          COVID –> economy –> housing

  6. Especially with a combined 13.5% city/state income tax and 8% sales tax…

    I would duck out too!!!!

    “‘During intermission, some people get restless and don’t come back for the next act. That’s what’s happening now.’”

    1. Restless? As in bored? The exodus out of New York is driven by fear of civil unrest, not boredom. But that doesn’t fit the narrative, so … they’re just bored.

      High taxation doesn’t help either, but New Yorkers do seem more accustomed to that. Having angry mobs of youfs pounding on the building’s locked front door, while the doorman hides behind his desk, that they aren’t used to.

      1. I was talking to my friend in NYC last night. She’s taking a cab home at the end of the day since she won’t go on the subway at night. She says you can feel the lawlessness in the air. Both apartments next to hers are empty. That is unheard of even in that crummy neighborhood; apartment vacancies would be filled in days, if not hours.
        Two of my cousins have left (for Florida and the Hamptons). My friend (67) wants to retire in another year and plans to move to South Carolina. Sounds like she should do it now.

    1. I’ve seen the Oakstrand one before. That’s the one that needs some fixing (tile countertops everywhere) but has the really nice pool and is next to the high school athletic fields IIRC. That extraneous dining area, with the black table, should be enclosed to be a home office.

      The house on St. Andrews is a no-go. It’s clean and classy, but it’s a little too open-concept. If you’re going to have a vaulted beamed ceiling, put it in the living room, not the bedroom. Open-flame gas stove on the island, grrr. And, NO POOL, and no room for a pool. For SoCal, that’s a dealbreaker.

      1. For SoCal, that’s a dealbreaker.

        Apparently not, as it sold 10% over asking.

        I knew a lot of people with bigger homes in SoCal who didn’t have pools. Unless you live east of I-15, your pool season might be a bit short.

  7. Looks like the Dems are starting to admit what we knew from the get go:

    Dozens of House Democrats want Biden to give up sole authority to launch nuclear weapons
    ‘Vesting 1 person with this authority entails real risks,’ the letter reads

    “Past presidents have threatened to attack other countries with nuclear weapons or exhibited behavior that caused other officials to express concern about the president’s judgment.”

    Uh huh. So, they are suddenly getting worried that Dementia Joe might start WW3? Say it ain’t so, Joe!

    I was thinking that Biden would be removed by Christmas. Now I’m wondering if he’ll make it to Easter.

  8. Explaining to someone about Ruby Freeman, states stopping the count at the same time, covering of windows in Michigan after stopping the count with Trump hundreds of thousands of votes ahead etc. and being told… “I don’t believe any of that, where’s the proof?” is a tough pill to swallow.

    February 5, 20215:00 AM ET
    JOHNNY KAUFFMAN

    Fulton County employees, as well as election workers around the country, are still grappling with the emotional and psychological trauma they suffered as a result of Trump’s disinformation campaign about the 2020 election, and it may have lasting consequences for recruiting and retention in the vital, but often under-appreciated field.

    https://www.npr.org/2021/02/05/963828783/you-better-run-after-trumps-false-attacks-election-workers-faced-threats

    1. Today is Wednesday, February 24th and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    2. That’s sort of like old joke: a guy murders his parents and asks the judge for leniency because he’s an orphan.

      under-appreciated field
      I did it once. The incompetence and lack of security was frightening. The regulars were unhelpful. Another woman and I finally had to take charge and they were fine with it. Neither of us had done it before (wasn’t difficult).

  9. https://www.yahoo.com/money/expert-fomo-is-fueling-homebuying-surge-200414554.html

    A pandemic, historically low mortgage rates, and record low housing inventory are helping to drive many homebuyers to skip crucial steps to get in on the hot housing market, according to one financial expert.

    “You’re seeing people are feeling this urge to hurry up and get something done for the sake of missing out,” Chris Hogan, a personal finance expert and spokesman for Ramsey Solutions, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). However, he added, “there’s a process we need to follow to make sure buying a home ends up being a blessing more than a curse.”

    1. Sitting with cash on the sidelines. Got lots of popcorn. I can wait.

      /my hunch is we’ll the first wave down around April 15.

        1. We’ve got a mortgage but no other debt.

          And after next month between Mrs Spiffy and I we’ll be knocking on $200k of cash between us and growin. I’d like to think that we can find investments that’ll outperform the 2 5/8% of the mortgage.

          We’re doing fine.

          1. “We’ve got a mortgage but no other debt.”

            This is likely a common situation for people working in the technology sector who are bound to a metro area, but have no intention of retiring there. In fact, it is probably impossible for most of the workforce to retire in these expensive metro areas. They are just renting from the bank with a chance of capital gains if the timing is right.

          2. What’s weird is you live on Mercer Island in the high rent area, yet I’ve got as much cash in the bank as you.

          3. This is likely a common situation for people working in the technology sector who are bound to a metro area, but have no intention of retiring there. In fact, it is probably impossible for most of the workforce to retire in these expensive metro areas. They are just renting from the bank with a chance of capital gains if the timing is right.

            True for a lot of people. We do hope to retire here and are working to make it happen.

            What’s weird is you live on Mercer Island in the high rent area, yet I’ve got as much cash in the bank as you.

            Smart of you to be accumulating cash and not trying to play in this frothy market. Too many people we know have been diving in recklessly.

            I’ve shared enough personal details in bits and pieces here over the last few years, so I guess I can recap.

            Mrs Spiffy & I are not just a dual tech income couple, but both had nasty divorces and have been paying support for 5 kids and 2 non-working exs, so the story arc for the last decade has been one of working hard to dig out of a big, big hole and building up a financial head of steam.

            Back in 2013 I started a project that would hopefully eventually bring me a nice ongoing passive payout over and above what we make at our ‘day jobs’. That all came to final fruition a year ago and is juicing our income by 6-figures for the next few years.

            We moved to Mercer Island originally for logistics – As Seattle area peeps can attest to – one of us always working downtown, the other on the east side, and flipping a couple times, renting a mid-century Usonian house for $2k/month.

            Things were going well, and we had moved to a second rental house that we really, really liked for $3k/mo after the owners of the first one wanted to move back in to it and lease not renewed. lease not renewed on the second one when the owner’s husband finally died of ALS-type condition and she needed to sell it to pay 6-figure medical bills.

            Tired of having to move every couple years, and the frothy market driving rents up, but even more importantly realizing that we would like to retire here and not move again, we decided to buy it from her, despite not yet being in the financial position we were targeting. If we weren’t wanting to say long term, we would have kept renting.

            Bought Casa Spiff in an off-market deal, no realwhores(tm) involved, no commissions and below market price for house as-is & minimal hassle. Having lived in it for 18+ months we knew what we were getting, but it depleted all our savings at that point.

            And that’s when I popped back up here after many years away and opened myself up and said “we got a good deal, but we’re out on a limb and exposed. this could go either way”

            Since then, things have gone our way mostly. 3 kids turned 18, one’s graduated and just started working, one in college (already paid for), another one about to enter college (UW, paid for) this fall, and one more turns 18 next January, so child support falling away while both of our day jobs are going stronger than ever. Our Ex’s are not happy to see the money train ending. (child support was more than rent/mortgage)

            Income dipped while I was off getting my knee replaced, and I appreciate the support from everyone here recovering from that – you guys & gals rock. Now we’re back to being considered ‘Rich’ by Biden, and should stay solidly there for the next few years. Our Mortgage balance is right at 2.0x our current AGI and we refi’d down thank to current interest rates such that our mortgage is less than you can rent comparable around here.

            We have all the ‘stuff’ we care to have: cars, furniture, etc, all paid for and don’t have any major needs and are actively paring down/Swedish Death Cleaning. So we’ve both been piling up the cash savings, but like most of you here, we think there’s a major correction coming and aren’t jumping in to anything.

            So yeah, the Spiffys are doing better than a lot of people after working so hard to get this far. And we’ve been quietly helping out a few those not so fortunate. I know a couple/few others here are doing even better and that’s great too.

            And that is the not-so-great American Novel…

          4. So yeah, the Spiffys are doing better than a lot of people after working so hard to get this far

            Glad to hear things are going well for y’all, Spiffy!

            Don’t let the haters here get you down. Sounds like you’ve made reasonable choices given my familiarity with the area and ability to relate to the rental hassle. I hope that area remains a place you want to live.

            We took our money and left town…our living expenses are cut in half at this point and we’ve both kept our jobs for the time being. Seattle/Bellevue was not an area we wanted to stay in given the direction of things, even though the area is gorgeous.

            Hoping to find a place for us here that feels like Casa Spiffy to you — our toe tag home.

          5. Don’t let the haters here get you down. Sounds like you’ve made reasonable choices given my familiarity with the area and ability to relate to the rental hassle. I hope that area remains a place you want to live.

            I don’t. There will always be a segment of the crowd here that’ll be hardass. I mean if Mafia Blocks were to ever go soft we’d all be wondering if he had a stroke. ;P

            I realized that it’s easy to forget how long ago some of things said here were, and some people might be going “didn’t he just say he bought the house and was wiped out and now he says he has 200k?”

            As I stated from the start, we hope to retire and live out our days here at Casa Spiffy, so this was never about ‘investing in real estate’, etc for us. It’s all about living for the long haul. 15 minutes to downtown Seattle or Bellevue and yet no line of sight to any of our neighbors thanks to being sandwiched into a greenbelt. That, plus a beautiful but modest house checks all the boxes for us.

            Having lived in Michigan, Texas and Georgia, Western WA has the climate we prefer, and will be much better to grow old in.

            I expect to work another 5-10 years and Mrs. Spiffy a bit longer than that, so being in a tech center where wages are highest for what we do is a form of financial arbitrage while get kids launched and we rebuild. If things somehow don’t work out financially, we will probably still still stay in the region.

            For all we talk about the advantages of renting, the downsides of no control over continuity, etc. are rough when you got kids.

            I’m glad you have been able to take your jobs with you – who could have seen the work from home explosion coming like it did? If I may ask, where-ish did you wind up moving to?

            And as always, thanks again for the Johsua Tree Extension.

            Carry on…

          6. I’m glad you have been able to take your jobs with you – who could have seen the work from home explosion coming like it did? If I may ask, where-ish did you wind up moving to?

            Yeah, the WFH situation accelerated our plans, which was nice. We’re now in middle-TN…you get the friendliness of Texans and independence of the South without the same heat and flying cockroaches!

  10. “He told the Review-Journal early last year that he was close to obtaining a roughly $2 billion construction loan for the project, but in March, as Las Vegas rapidly shut down over fears of the coronavirus outbreak, he shelved construction of the resort.

    Contractors later filed tens of millions of dollars’ worth of liens alleging unpaid bills for their work at the Drew. Several ex-employees also sued Witkoff, alleging they were laid off from the project amid the pandemic and weren’t paid what their contracts called for.”

    But guys, we’re all in this together

  11. Obviously in the midst of lockdowns, this make no logical or analytical sense. But was anyone still surprised by the Case-Schiller index for 2020? I totally am – i can only explain it by very low mortgage rates, FOMO, the move to suburbs. what do folks think – this is not making any sense


    “Home prices finished 2020 with double-digit gains, as the National Composite Index rose by 10.4% compared to year-ago levels,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The trend of accelerating prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its seventh month and is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 9.8% and 10.1%, respectively). The market’s strength continues to be broadly-based: 18 of the 19 cities for which we have December data rose, and 18 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in December than they had gained in the 12 months ended in November.

    https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-reports-10.4-annual-home-price-gain-to-end-2020-2021

    1. > – i can only explain it by very low mortgage rates, FOMO, the move to suburbs. what do folks think – this is not making any sense

      I think it’s a mix of those plus a couple other factors – one is the rising income inequality enabling the group that is doing the most of the buying and the whole covid situation fueling the demand to move to spike above historical norms.

      If historically 5% of people relocated every year – i.e. 1 in 20, and the situation kicked enough people to raise that to 7 or 8 this year%, it’s still a small group overall, but a 50% increase in buyers and busting market norms. – I honestly don’t know/haven’t looked for the data – just spitballing how a small change in the total population can be a big change in the size of the sub-group.

    1. other tradesmen

      Out of all the twentysomething nieces, nephews and friends’ kid, the heavy diesel mechanic is doing the best by far.

  12. “LoanDepot Inc was forced to cut its IPO by 75% to $54 million this month, after investors balked at its request to be valued as highly as $6.8 billion.”

    Used home seller math is curious.

      1. No, it’s the MSM crap that passes for writing. They’re over-abbreviating to save space. I don’t know why. It’s not as if they’re trying to fit print on physical paper anymore.

        Investor wishing price: “as high as” $6.8 billion (not mathematically relevant)
        Original IPO: $216 million
        Actual IPO: $54 million (75% down from $216 million)

  13. OK wait, I need to clarify, since I couldn’t figure out who was doing what.

    Loan Depot wishing price: “as high as” $6.8 billion (investors balked at this)
    Loan Depot actual proposed IPO: $216 million
    Investors willing to spend: $54 million

      1. rms : It’s good thing I wasn’t drinking beer when I read that. It would be all over my screen.

    1. The Financial Times
      Sovereign bonds
      Global government bonds hit by fresh wave of selling
      US 10-year Treasury yield jumps above 1.4% for first time since start of Covid crisis
      The bond markets sell-off has begun to ripple through equities markets
      © FT montage; AP/NYSE
      Robin Wigglesworth
      9 hours ago

      The global government bond sell-off deepened on Wednesday, with the 10-year US Treasury yield jumping above 1.4 per cent for the first time since the start of the coronavirus crisis.

      European government bonds were also caught-up in Wednesday’s selling, sending yields on British, French, German and Italian bonds rising. The drop in prices is the latest leg of a broad shift away from government debt that has been driven by a more upbeat global economic outlook and rising concerns over inflation.

      The 10-year Treasury yield rose as much as 0.09 percentage points on Wednesday to reach 1.4337 per cent, having started the year at around 0.9 per cent. Longer-term Treasuries faced more intense selling since they are more vulnerable to changes in inflation expectations.

    2. The Financial Times
      Retail trading
      GameStop shares double in final 90 minutes of trading day
      Volatility returns to favourite of the Reddit day-trading forum
      The company’s stock was halted shortly before the closing bell at $91.70, a 104 per cent gain from Tuesday’s close
      © REUTERS
      Eric Platt and Aziza Kasumov in New York 3 hours ago

      GameStop shares doubled in heavy volume in the final 90 minutes of trading on Wednesday, in a return of the volatility that rocked markets last month and led to a congressional inquiry.

      Trading in the video game retailer’s shares, which have been a favourite of day traders communicating on social media platforms like Reddit and Twitter, had to be halted twice, as stock exchanges’ automatic stabilisers kicked in.

      In January, a short-squeeze in GameStop shares inflicted severe losses on hedge funds betting against the company, and some posts on Reddit exalted in the sudden resurgence of the stock after weeks of declines.

      The company’s stock was halted shortly before the closing bell at $91.70, a 104 per cent gain from Tuesday’s close.

      The sudden burst of activity spread to other stocks that had also become popular with traders on the Reddit forum WallStreetBets. Distressed cinema operator AMC closed up 18 per cent, clothing retailer Express climbed 41 per cent, and communications software group BlackBerry gained 9 per cent.

      The surge in GameStop shares quickly made it the top-performing stock in the broad-based Russell 3000 index.

      The stock continued to rally in after-hours trading after the halt lapsed, rising a further 30 per cent to $119. More than 50m GameStop shares traded on Wednesday, the highest level since February 5.

      1. For those of us who are not stock daytraders, why should we be breathlessly waiting for these copy and paste third hand informations?

    1. Interesting lots of doors to the outside (the bathroom), with so many mirrors would someone lets say….. chunky want to look at themselves all over the house? and way too white for me..

      1. > No HOA, No Mello Roos

        Sold.

        Not that bad .. Over an Acre, but ~6500 sq ft is a lot of house to look after.

      1. The Financial Times
        Sovereign wealth funds
        Australia sovereign wealth fund chief warns of stock market ‘clean-out’
        Some asset prices are ‘unsustainable’, says Peter Costello, as concerns rise over inflation
        Peter Costello’s warning comes as investors around the world have started to question how long central banks will hold down interest rates
        © FT montage; EPA
        Jamie Smyth in Sydney and Robin Wigglesworth in Oslo yesterday

        The world’s big central banks are inflating a bubble in technology stocks that will lead to a “clean-out” on global equity markets, the chairman of Australia’s $135bn sovereign wealth fund has warned.

        Rock-bottom interest rates and bond-buying programmes put in place to cushion the impact of the pandemic last year have left economies and markets vulnerable to a shock, Peter Costello said in an interview.

        His comments come as investors around the world have started to worry how long central banks will hold down interest rates in the event of rising inflation as the global economy recovers from coronavirus. These nerves have weighed on equity markets and hit government bond prices, pushing up yields from the US to Australia.

        “What worries me is having expended all of their firepower, there is not much left for the next crisis, and there will be another crisis,” said Costello, a former Australian treasurer who heads the Future Fund, the country’s 15-year-old A$171bn (US$135bn) sovereign wealth fund. Cheap money has also fuelled a boom in Australian property prices, he added.

        “I am worried that we have unsustainable asset prices in some areas and when those asset prices fall — when the correction comes — what firepower have the central banks got left then? Nothing.”

  14. California news keeps peddling the California Covid Mutant strain , saying its more contagious and deadly.
    So, I guess this is the new fear mongering narrative to explain keeping the masks on and Lockdowns when ever they want.
    I think its pretty obvious that because this is a invisible enemy, that they don’t even have a accurate test for, that anything they say is suspicious.
    Since the CDC doesn’t have the evidence of Covid19 isolated under a microscope, I’m suppose to believe that the Mutant California Strain is a proven isolated strain.
    Usually Mutant stains are less deadly historically, but no not this time, the California Strain is more deadly and requires a new vaccine, so take the current vaccine, but this doesn’t protect you from the California Mutant Strain.
    The one good thing that might come out of this Medical Fraud is that when you got a Medical Big Pharma that is in collusion with corrupted Government and fake news, the public will continue to be victimized by the biggest medical fraud of all time.IMHO.
    I have heard many a Doctor say they don’t believe the narratives, but they could get fired if they oppose it.
    Why do they need to suppress Doctors who have a opposing view?
    So, it’s amazing that Doctors are under this Authoritative rule where they can express a opinion other than the narratives promoted, which doesn’t look like it follows Science at all.
    OK, so mostly over 80 seniors died of respiratory failure who had co morbidities, but this has been happening for decades.
    The second they enacted Obamacare, my visions of Medical Tyranny by Big Pharma began. And now the Medical Cartel shut down the Globe in conjunction with corrupted Government and fake news.its outrageous and has create a police State of abuse of powers of Government.

    Apparently these Big Monopolies always knew that it was going to be difficult to get US Citizens to give up freedoms in favor of Monopoly control and rigged markets, and outright looting of the tax coffers .
    I heard this med Business guy who has 3,200 employees in Florida talk about how he never closed down his retail outlet in Florida with thousands of people not wearing masks in his retail outlet. In a year’s time he only had a couple employees get minor flu systems who were out for about 4 days and it was no different than previous years sick days taken for so called flu.
    This Guy also in summary said he knows the Senator of the State who in essence told him the Swamp was so bad in DC that it would take years to undue how corrupted it got. The Politicians are so bought off by Big Money interest that the people aren’t represented at all.
    So Monopolies and fake narratives are dictating policy , with this One World Order with them ruling.

  15. The Monopolies knew that the Trump popular program to Make America Great Again could affect the years of Monopolies corrupting Government. The Swamp has become the pawn of these Monopolies , and Foreign and domestic enemies have gained power also because of this Globalist Monopoly Rule that took over.
    And, their fake narratives are so ridiculous so 24/7 of fake news is highly effective for them to brainwash a certain % of the population.
    But, they want to brainwash the entire population , so they seek the shutting down of any dispute. 75 million Trump Voters are terrorist now. Since when in America is a big Political group labeled terrorist? The
    Globalist.
    Monopolies are the enemy of over half the Country
    I predict that the blowback from them rigging the election will backfire on them, and even lefties will start rejecting their insane narrative.

  16. And, it was clear how much the corrupted Government targeted small business in the Lockdowns.
    It stand to reason if you let people go into Big Box stores with masks on smaller business should of been allowed same.
    Killing small business so Monopolies could get their market share, using a Medical Fraud to accomplish this is sinister.
    The Commie rioters targeted small business also, while the Big Corporations donated to their little army of insurrectionist that were responsible for a lot of deaths.
    You can’t fool the people all the time because eventually it becomes obvious who is benefiting from false narratives, and it isn’t the people.

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