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The Difficulty In Selling Stems From Its Price Point

A report from the Orange County Register in California. “The talk of ‘risk’ isn’t a subject frequently heard among housing analysts and industry insiders. It’s also a good time to be in the transactions business with the quick pace of dealmaking. (Note: Many of these upbeat ‘experts’ are paid by the real estate industry.) This same thinking, though, overlooks the high possibility that today’s cheap loans and coronavirus fears could soon become memories. Not to be a buzz-killer, but all this enthusiasm seemingly forgets that buyers hold most of the risk and nobody should overlook the yo-yo-like trends in California’s real estate market.”

“The cost of being wrong can be steep. Look at California’s largest price drops in annualized terms. In the short-run, worst-case losses averaged 26% a year since 1990. In the medium-term, price depreciation was as bad as 6% a year. For lengthy ownerships, you essentially broke even. Please note that this unpleasantness isn’t just residue from California housing’s bubble-bursting collapse into the Great Recession. That debacle took 11 years, from 2007 to 2018, for the market to return to its old peak price.”

“You see, the painfully stagnant real estate market of the 1990s is often ignored. That sluggish statewide economy translated to eight years (1990 to 1998) between record highs. The substandard profits came with a higher frequency of losses: 32% in the short-and-medium timeframes (one to 10 years) vs. a 6% chance of decline in the long run. And Southern California’s worst periods were price drops averaging 27% a year in the short run vs. 6% drops a year in the medium-term vs. a dip of 0.4% yearly in the long run.”

From Reality Blurb. “Thomas Girardi will be evicted from his $16 million home in Pasadena, California any day now. During a court hearing, a federal judge ruled to allow the attorney to stay in the home for the time being as he also wondered if Thomas’ wife, Real Housewives of Beverly Hills star Erika Jayne, was aware of the bankruptcy proceedings against him. As the report explained, the large home is far too expensive for the plaintiff’s attorney to maintain.”

“According to Reuters Legal report from Pasadena Now, Thomas’ brother, Robert Girardi, who was named as his temporary conservator weeks ago, struck a deal with bankruptcy trustee Jason Rund that was described by U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Barry Russell as ‘fairly straightforward.'”

“‘There’s no way the debtor can service the mortgage on this property,’ Leonard Pena, an attorney representing Robert, said during Tuesday’s hearing. ‘He plans on moving, but obviously we didn’t want it to happen overnight.'”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “The recent $17.5 million sale of 150 Glenbrook atop Mount Sutro brought another stat to our attention: the highest elevation home in the city. The more than 7,000-square-foot John Maniscalco-designed Clarendon Heights home is San Francisco’s highest private residence above sea level.”

“As is typical of transactions at this price point, co-listing agent Stacey Caen couldn’t reveal much about the sale particulars, but she could say that the sellers were ‘owner-users’ and ‘design enthusiasts and professionals’ who lived in and loved the home after it was completed in 2018. The home went on the market for $22 million late last summer ‘due to the owners’ center of gravity pulling them to their residences in Southern California,’ she said. The price dropped to just under $20 million in early December, and it sold for $17.5 million, or more than $2,300 per square foot, in mid-February.”

The Philadelphia Business Journal in Pennsylvania. “The Covid-19 pandemic could breathe new life into efforts to sell a 32-acre Main Line estate recently reduced in price by $4 million. The Gladwyne property has been on the market since July 2016, when it was listed for $28 million. The asking price has steadily declined, and the latest drop brought it down 21% from $18.9 million to $14.9 million.”

“Completed in 2011, the 12,700-square-foot mansion has six bedrooms, six full bathrooms and three half bathrooms spanning three floors. Andrew Barroway purchased the land at 100 Maplehill Road in 2006 for $12 million. He spent another $23 million and three years building his dream home, bringing the total investment up to $35 million.”

“The property has received offers, but none that Barroway has been willing to accept, said Misha Haghani, a broker who holds the listing. ‘I think it really does have tremendous value,’ Haghani said. ‘If someone’s looking for quality, the replacement value on this property is going to be double what the purchase price is going to be. Someone is going to do very well on this property.'”

“The difficulty in selling the home stems from its price point, Haghani said. Though Gladwyne’s 19035 ZIP code is one of the wealthiest in the country — with an average household income of $844,700 — the house’s price is still well above the typical home value of nearly $1.1 million in the area. 100 Maplehill Road is the second most expensive listing in Montgomery County, beat out only by a $23.95 million property at 1543 Monk Road which has also been on the market for years. The Monk Road property was listed again in March 2020 after an unsuccessful listing in 2013 and multiple price drops over the years.”

From Realtor.com. “Nationally, home prices are up in just about every nook and cranny of the country. But wait! The realtor.com data team discovered a few places where home prices are actually falling. The Destin, Florida area has seen an increase in offseason tourism as parents and children are able to work and go to school remotely, according to Jacqui Luberto with Realty ONE Group Emerald Coast. However, the market is saturated with condos, which is likely helping to drag median prices down. On the other end of the spectrum are the $1 million-plus homes that aren’t selling. Median list price: $469,000. Median list price change: -15.6%.”

“Hawaii is synonymous with tourism, which hasn’t exactly been a good thing over the past year. In December, visitors entering the state plunged 75% compared with the same time a year ago, according to preliminary data from the Hawaii Tourism Authority. That drop has led to massive job losses in the leisure and hospitality sector. In the Honolulu area, unemployment has reached 8.1%—well above the national rate of 6.7%.Honolulu, HI. Median list price: $975,000. Median list price change: -12.2%.”

“Located in Central Illinois, Bloomington allows relatively quick access to major cities like Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. But a struggling economy and a statewide exodus, partly due to rising taxes, have hurt Bloomington’s housing market. Recent layoffs at Bloomington-area manufacturing companies, restaurants, and Illinois State University means there are fewer people in the workforce. Average wages dropped as well. Median list price: $117,000. Median list price change: -8.3%.”

The Washington Post. “Nearly a year since coronavirus-related shutdowns began affecting large swaths of the American economy, more businesses are filing for bankruptcy as Chapter 11 filings were up nearly 20 percent in 2020 compared with the previous year, court records show. Bankruptcies filed by entertainment companies in 2020 nearly quadrupled, and filings nearly tripled for oil and gas companies, doubled for computer and software companies and were up 50 percent or more for restaurant owners, real estate companies and retailers, compared with 2019, data from the research firm show.”

“There were 5,236 Chapter 11 filings in 2019, but 6,917 last year, a tally at least 30 percent higher than any of the previous four years. Because bankruptcy filings lag other signals of economic distress, experts say the worst may be yet to come. Bankruptcies stemming from the 2007 financial crisis didn’t peak until 2010.”

“‘Bankruptcies don’t cause damage to the economy,’ said Ed Flynn, a consultant to the American Bankruptcy Institute. ‘The damage has already been occurred when the bankruptcy is filed. Higher bankruptcies is more a symptom of economic harm than the cause.'”

“Restaurants have been one of the hardest-hit sectors on almost every measure during the pandemic, and experts say the worst of the fallout is likely still to come. Los Angeles bankruptcy attorney Rosendo Gonzalez, who serves as a court-appointed bankruptcy trustee in some cases and represents other companies for their own filings, said restaurant clients he has talked to are either closed or hanging on by a thread. Some will just walk away from their locations and not bother filing, he said. Others may wind up filing for Chapter 7, meaning all of their assets are liquidated and they do not reopen.”

“‘Restaurants I know are having a hard time. And it’s just a question of when they are going to file,’ Gonzalez said. ‘I think there is going to be an increase across the board, of all types and chapters. I just don’t know when it’s going to happen.'”

“As the value of retail and office space has plummeted during the pandemic, it has plunged development projects underwater, meaning the values of the properties are lower than the amount the owners owe. Jim Hammond, chief executive of New Generation Research, said real estate companies with heavy debts will be at risk. ‘Even a return to normal may not be enough to save them,’ Hammond said.”

“Retailers’ woes have begun to trickle down to some of their suppliers, however. On Feb. 15, Country Fresh, a provider of fresh fruit snacks, salads, sides and soups to convenience stores and other markets, filed for Chapter 11. Based in the Houston, the company listed hundreds of thousands of dollars in debts to packaging, logistics, shipping and marketing contractors. ‘Pandemic-related supply chain and business disruptions have affected Country Fresh and our customers dramatically over the past year,’ said Bill Andersen, Country Fresh chief executive. He said the company and its assets would be sold.”

From Bisnow. “Malls once part of Simon Property Group’s nationwide portfolio have seen their worth fall off a cliff, with appraisers slashing a handful of valuations up to 88% in recent weeks. Simon designated 13 of its properties as ‘non-core’ in its latest earnings report. Anchor tenants increasingly vanished from those malls even before the coronavirus pandemic, and all but two of those assets have been transitioned to their lenders, according to DBRS Morningstar.”

“The approximately 520K SF collateral at Crystal Mall in Waterford, Connecticut, recorded the most dramatic fall, from a valuation of $153M in 2012 to just $18.7M in February, an 88% drop, according to CMBS tracking firm Trepp. Simon was in the process of transferring the mall to its lender as recently as January. Appraisals for other malls that were until-recently owned by Simon have had nearly as drastic drop-offs in their valuation.”

“The Square One Mall in Saugus, outside of Boston, saw its valuation drop 75% collateral valuation, Trepp reported. The value dropped from $201M at the time of the CMBS loan’s securitization in 2012 to $50.5M this month. The Dover Mall in Delaware, a 554K SF center valued at $129M in 2011 was lowered to $41M in February, a nearly 69% chop. The 385K SF non-anchor space at Mall at Tuttle Crossing in Dublin, Ohio, saw its valuation of $240M in 2011 fall to $80M under a new appraisal, Trepp analysis revealed in December. Both malls are in receivership.”

“The Emerald Square Mall in North Attleboro, Massachusetts, was handed to JLL by a federal judge in November, The Sun Chronicle reported. The imminent closing of Sears at Emerald Square is expected to trigger co-tenancy clauses, according to a Fitch Ratings note, which would downgrade the rating of the loan. The mall behind $97.7M in CMBS loans hasn’t yet seen its valuation cut — it was appraised at $167M in 2012.”

“When talking about the malls on which Simon had nonrecourse CMBS debt, CEO David Simon said some of the deals could be restructured, but acknowledged the publicly traded firm was comfortable handing back the malls, rather than try to rescue them.”

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This Post Has 90 Comments

  1. ‘When talking about the malls on which Simon had nonrecourse CMBS debt, CEO David Simon said some of the deals could be restructured, but acknowledged the publicly traded firm was comfortable handing back the malls’

    Not only comfortable, gleeful. Had it gone up, sweet equity! Goes south, Fook-U mister lender. How do those non-recourse loans look now?

    1. So I recently visited the King of Prussia Mall in Pennsylvania. Probably the nicest and largest mall on the east coast. Dead.

      Same week I went to the Borgata Casino in New Jersey. Probably the nicest and largest casino on the east coast.

      Packed, crowded, hopping with folks spending stimulus money out the wazoo.

      So….split decision.

      1. Business on the Las Vegas strip has picked up, but there’s still a lot of crime, homeless hanging out on the overpasses and casino entrances. No “Bums Away!” by casino security, minimal Metro enforcement. It’s strange.

        My daughter works in MGM corporate. She’s getting some overtime with the increased paperwork.

    2. “When talking about the malls on which Simon had nonrecourse CMBS debt, CEO David Simon said some of the deals could be restructured, but acknowledged the publicly traded firm was comfortable handing back the malls, rather than try to rescue them.”

      It looks like they’re not counting on the “big spending” American consumer to rescue the economy?

      1. Malls are so pre 2000. The one in Fort Collins has been dead forever. Our good friend Chad McWhinney is buying the carcass of the Fort Collins Foothills Mall and is going to redevelop the land.

        Meanwhile, the Centerra Mall (Promenades) in Loveland is being foreclosed … again. This one is one of McWhinney’s babies.

  2. ‘the replacement value on this property is going to be double what the purchase price is going to be’

    Wa? UHS say this is unpossible?

  3. ‘the large home is far too expensive for the plaintiff’s attorney to maintain’

    The bigger the shack, the bigger the bonanza? Don’t tell me these California UHS have been a lion!

    ‘There’s no way the debtor can service the mortgage on this property’

    Lending is rock solid. They can always sell. Red-hotcakes dammit!

    1. nobody should overlook the yo-yo-like trends in California’s real estate market.”

      It’s still crazy out here. Buildable lots in the far flung reaches of east county San Diego start at about 50k. Anywhere within an hour drive of the city and a buildable lot is at least 100k even in less desirable areas. Land prices are ridiculous. Folks from an unnamed part of the world are scouring Southern California and paying top dollar for every few acres with a well to grow an unnamed highly profitable crop that happens to be legal here. I suspect this is having some impact on land prices in the outlying regions.

      1. ‘every few acres with a well to grow an unnamed highly profitable crop that happens to be legal here.’

        I can not wrap my head around how much marijuana demand is not being met. Are all these weed companies supplying the ingredients for edibles or something? You smoke a bong or joint and get blitzed. Do people really want to do that that often? I know when I was in junior high school, drugs were what we thought we wanted. Just not getting how pot is still something a lot of adults want to smoke all that much.

        1. “I can not wrap my head around how much marijuana demand is not being met.”

          “Dope will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no dope.” —Gilbert Shelton, The Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers

        2. What is also interesting is that technically it’s still illegal, and employers can still fire you for consuming it.

  5. ‘Nationally, home prices are up in just about every nook and cranny of the country. But wait! The realtor.com data team discovered a few places where home prices are actually falling’

    Now they tell us.

    ‘the market is saturated with condos, which is likely helping to drag median prices down. On the other end of the spectrum are the $1 million-plus homes that aren’t selling’

    It’s the mix!

  6. ‘agent Stacey Caen couldn’t reveal much about the sale particulars, but she could say that the sellers were ‘owner-users’ and ‘design enthusiasts and professionals’ who lived in and loved the home after it was completed in 2018’

    Translation = they took an a$$ pounding.

  8. ‘Because bankruptcy filings lag other signals of economic distress, experts say the worst may be yet to come. Bankruptcies stemming from the 2007 financial crisis didn’t peak until 2010’

    As was pointed out in a weekend topic recently, the lack of business failures reflects future pain to come. Free cheese doesn’t make things better, only worse. The unconstitutional lock downs are causing this largely.

    ‘Bankruptcies don’t cause damage to the economy…The damage has already been occurred when the bankruptcy is filed. Higher bankruptcies is more a symptom of economic harm than the cause’

    I sort of know what he’s getting at. The money is gone, it’s the realization of it that hasn’t happened. But here’s my experience as an accountant. Many businesses will continue to order from suppliers, etc, well past their financial insolvency. These filings role in and shazaam! those down the chain stop paying too. And so it continues until the losses are absorbed, which will include – GASP! – banks.

    Payables are also receivables. But when the money goes poof, there will be zeros on more than one balance sheet.

    1. The money is gone, it’s the realization of it that hasn’t happened.

      Kind of like my divorce. It didn’t change anything, only brought it to the light.

  9. What a lovely couple. I bet she only married him for his looks and kindness.

    “At the end of last year, Thomas and his law firm, Girardi Keese, were placed into involuntary bankruptcy after being accused of embezzling $2 million of settlement money from relatives of victims of the Lion Air Flight 610 crash and a short time later, his assets were frozen.”

    Oh Dear

    2. Lion Air Flight 610

      I took a looksie on that flight/crash. It occurred outside the US, on a foreign carrier that doesn’t fly to the US, and there were no Americans on board. How is it that the case is being tried in the US? Because the jet was a Boeing?

  11. Today’s article for the Lockdown Lovers:

    “Dr Rochelle Walensky, the director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned on Monday that a recent increase in coronavirus cases indicated a “fourth surge” could occur before a majority of the US is vaccinated.

    “At this level of cases, with variants spreading, we stand to completely lose the hard-earned ground we have gained,” Walensky said, during a White House briefing.

    “Now is not the time to relax the critical safeguards that we know can stop the spread of Covid-19 in our communities, not when we are so close. We have the ability to stop a potential fourth surge of cases in this country.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/cdc-chief-covid-us-coronavirus-cases-potential-fourth-surge

    Happy ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY of “fifteen days to flatten the curve”

    1. warned on Monday that a recent increase in coronavirus cases

      What increase is he talking about?

      1. I don’t know where there is an increase in cases, but the decrease has stopped; that is, case count is leveling off. The superbowl bump is over, but cases count is still a little high. The theory is that the high number of cases in California is due to the rise of the contagious California variant.

        Bad news: More cases –> more deaths overall. Yes, the impatient young-uns are still killing grandma.
        Good news: I don’t expect this last for much longer. Grandmas are being vaccinated first. Give it 4-6 weeks. After that I think we’ll see the death count graph dissociate from the case count graph. That is, cases will go up, but death count will not (make sure to factor in the three-week lag time between the two).

        More good news: it appears that the vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J) are effective for all of the new variants. The most vaccine-resistant is the South African variant, and even then, the vaccine is 100% effective against death for that (and all) variants. All three companies are working on boosters for those variants to prevent even the mild cases for those variants.

        1. Yes, the impatient young-uns are still killing grandma.

          I though Grandma was already vaccinated. Next week the 60+ bunch starts getting vaccinated here in the Centennial State.

          1. In the US, 25.8 million (27%) people age 65+ have received at least one dose of vaccine. So 3/4 are still vulnerable. Also remember that it takes three weeks for immunity to kick in. That’s why I said “give it 4-6 weeks.” By mid-April, those 25.8 million seniors will have developed the immunity and received the second shot, and more seniors will get the first shot. We’re getting there, but it won’t happen overnight.

            https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic

          2. Here in the Centennial State 900,000 have had one dose, 477,000 have had two doses. So 1.4M out of 5.7M have had at least one dose. That should be enough for every grandma, at least here.

          3. Is that 1.4 million all seniors, or does it include health care workers and first responders? The CDC tracker shows age data only nationwide, not at the state level.

    2. “Today’s article for the Lockdown Lovers:”

      Today I saw a twit riding a motor scooter about like this one…

      https://youtu.be/R4QcL7nwdTA

      wearing a mask and no helmet and thinking to myself, there’s a young Biden voter that doesn’t know he has a 99.9% chance of a full recovery even if he catches Covid and a 3% chance of living through an accident with the 70 something year-old snowbirds driving around doing their last minute errands before going North for the summer.

    3. It’s all propaganda. The situation in California tells a very different story. The pandemic is coming to an end. Covid-19 was weaponized and is being used against the people of this country and indeed, just about all the countries around the world. The UN and third world crowd is trying to milk more money out of the USA. Covid-19 has turned into a new revenue stream for the “New World Order”.

      Can’t anyone interpret a simple graph or histogram? See my post below.

      1. to milk more money out of the USA
        Warren’s wealth tax is an other example of Covid being used to squeeze money out of Americans.

        1. Warren’s wealth tax isn’t a new idea. Huey Long promoted Share the Wealth almost a hundred years ago. Really, I don’t see the point. Even if she totaled up all the 50-milliares in this country, she would collect, what, maybe a hundred billion dollars? That’ll run the government for maybe one day. And it would be a one-time tax. Few people make $50 million each year.

          1. Really, I don’t see the point.

            The money’s already in foundations or donor-advised funds.

    1. As automakers phase out ICE cars, a cottage (or maybe not so cottage) industry will arise to keep older ICE cars running and in good shape. I expect that lower mileage ICE cars will be highly desirable when that time comes.

      Think tooling down the interstate in a low mileage, 15 year old Toyota and laughing as you zoom past the long lines at the recharging stations. Heck, I get impatient when there are no free pumps at the gas station, even though that means waiting just a few minutes. Now imagine waiting behind 4+ cars, each with a 20+ minute recharge. Better bring a good book to read.

      I could see an electric car being viable for running errands around town, assuming of course that I have a reliable source of power for recharging it. But road trips can become a major chore.

      1. “a reliable source of power for recharging it”

        Thanks to the Green New Steal, that Tesla charger we would have billed $1000 to install will now be $2500.

        Installing a 50 amp 240 volt receptacle is not rocket science, but you will be billed like it is. And now you can charge your Tesla with electricity produced from burning coal. Saint Greta will be so proud of you 🙂

  15. Quit playing the TV doctor. The CDC has made it extremely difficult to view Covid-19 statistics over time. But the State of California has some simple but informative graphs:
    https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/
    Tell me, Dr. Casey, which way is the Covid-19 pandemic in California heading? Where are the “bumps” and super-spreader events during the holidays last year. After Labor Day the curves were going down. Things started going up in the beginning of November, long before Thanksgiving. It peaked in the middle of January. It’s been going down FAST ever since.

    All of the curves, number of cases, deaths and hospitalizations have been functioning on autopilot. The curves look a lot like the annual flu curves. It’s clear from these graphs that the end of the “pandemic” is coming soon. There’s no correlation between closures and lockdowns and the epidemic curves. We’ve been sold a load of B.S. Nobody can control the path of the epidemic.

    Why doesn’t the CDC and the Feds chart the national data in this way. California leads the nation in cases and deaths, so the effect on the national data is significant. Why are restaurants still closed now? The fourth “wave” of the pandemic is here and the cases are going up?

    The public is being lied to by the government. It’s all fake news.

    1. So I’m looking at the California data. The bump right around Christmas could be the rise of the contagious variant. The second peak was two weeks after the holiday travel, like clockwork. Deaths peaked three weeks after cases peak, again like clockwork. Since then, cases have been going down, but not down to 0. Deaths are leveling off, but not going down to 0. And from the data, it looks to me like the pandemic “came to an end” last September. Oopsie. Not yet.

      If the vaccine rollout goes as expected, the pandemic will end in the summer. The first thing to decrease will be deaths as all the Grandmas get vaccines. Then cases will go down as people go into the air and sunlight, more and more people get and survive COVID, the under-60s are slowly vaccinated over April-June, and immunity builds during July.

      1. Where did you get your graduate school training in epidemiology and biostatistics? Where did you obtain your experience in the fields of biostatistics and epidemiology? Before Covid-19 came around, 99% of the population couldn’t even pronounce either word. Now everyone is an expert.

        What research have you done on vaccine effectiveness? Where are your articles on the spread of the flu around the world? Do you even know anything about infectious disease monitoring and modeling? Where have you gained your knowledge on disease modeling? Papers? Please cite.

        1. She has a M.S. in Chemistry and is also a licensed Realtor with the Maryland Association of Realtors.

          1. Master’s in Chemistry?! You have to be kidding. That’s like a person with a bachelor’s in soil science claiming that makes them an expert in particle physics. And a realtor license just gets you minus 100 points since realtors are trained to not be objective.

          3. You do realize that science hasn’t even figured out how to predict the spread, magnitude or even the strain of the annual influenza season. They’ve only been working on that for 100 years. How then are all of these laypeople and clinical physicians making these statements about how to slow the spread of Covid-19?

            Answer: They’re lying. They’re making things up on the fly. Politics has even prevented scientists from finding out where this pandemic began. If you believe Baghdad Bob over at the World Health Organization, I have some beach front property for you just west of Las Vegas.

            Everything about the Covid-19 “Pandemic” is infested with politics, not science. When people say things like “Fourth Wave” you know that they are about as trustworthy as Joe Isuzu. There’s no such thing as a “fourth wave” in an epidemic.

            What happened to people’s trust and faith in science, not politics. Do you believe what the MSM says? Why? When WHO changed the ICD coding rules for Covid-19 deaths, they annihilated the death data everywhere around the world. So the data is garbage. Garbage in and Garbage out.

          4. zzy wrote: How then are all of these laypeople and clinical physicians making these statements about how to slow the spread of Covid-19?

            Answer: They’re lying. They’re making things up on the fly.

            So, not all viruses float free. For example HIV does not float free. Its transmission vehicle is certain human bodily fluids.

            Similarly, according to the WHO, CDC and other medical bodies, SARS-cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, does not float free. It too has transmission vehicles, which are spit, mucus and water droplets.

            Masks stop the spread of those droplets. Ipso facto – by that fact – masks stop the spread of SARS-cov-2.

            Very simple equation.

          5. zzy wrote: Master’s in Chemistry?! You have to be kidding. That’s like a person with a bachelor’s in soil science claiming that makes them an expert in particle physics.

            If you’re not directly doing research in virology, you then have to get your information from someone you trust.

            Some people get their information from politicians, broadcasters, YouTube celebrities. Others get their information from medical and scientific bodies and individuals.

            Wisdom is knowing which group to choose for the information which is most likely to be correct.

            Individuals also should seek to inspect evidence for themselves and decide. But again wisdom in choosing those sources. And coming back around to “experts you trust”, I’m confident the sources like the WHO and CDC, Fauci and Birx, while not perfect, are the best sources of information. More so than a YouTube celebrity. Or a television/radio show host. Or a politician.

          6. CDC, Fauci

            The highest paid politician in the FedGov. Known to lie, by everyone with an attention span longer than a month. The go to money man. Funded the Wuhan lab increase in function research when it was illegal under Pres Obama. Just sayin.

          7. I take issue with the term “YouTube celebrity.” These guys aren’t James Charles and Chloe Kardashian. They are real professionals giving online lectures as a side hustle. Dr. Seheult at Medcram often doesn’t post new videos because he’s busy treating COVID patients in the ICU.

        2. Didn’t you just give me a lecture on how to read COVID-19 cases and deaths over time? Where is YOUR degree in biostatistics?

          As for me, I’m not a Realtor. And I don’t have to be a professional med in order to quote and paraphrase actual epidemiologists, doctors, and scientific papers. Here is where I get my info on YouTube:

          Medcram (Dr. Roger Seheult, physician and pulmonary specialist)
          Peak Prosperity (Dr. Chris Martenson, pathologist)
          Dr. John Campbell (PhD in Nursing in UK, mostly reports published studies)

          As for scientific papers, I cite them in my posts. BTW, anyone who has an understanding of the scientific method and isolation of variables can gain insight from a scientific paper. For the record, we learn those skills in 7th and 8th grade science class.

          2. Richard Feyman 1966:

            Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.

            When someone says, “Science teaches such and such,” he is using the word incorrectly. Science doesn’t teach anything; experience teaches it. If they say to you, “Science has shown such and such,” you might ask, “How does science show it? How did the scientists find out? How? What? Where?”

            It should not be “science has shown” but “this experiment, this effect, has shown.” And you have as much right as anyone else, upon hearing about the experiments–but be patient and listen to all the evidence–to judge whether a sensible conclusion has been arrived at.

          3. I have a Master’s of Public Health (MPH) degree in biostatistics from UCLA. I also have training in infectious and chronic disease epidemiology. I worked for a major public health department for seven years–I worked on the AIDS epidemic back when it turned into a major public health problem. I then spent several years producing the vital statistics reports for the department which included calculating the number of deaths and rates for all of the causes of death and all of the birth statistics. My responsibilities also included the analysis and interpretation of mortality statistics for public health assessments and other issues.

            I worked for one of the world’s leading biotech companies on clinical trials. I spent almost 20 years doing translational cancer research at a major university medical center.

            Fauci was the person who was in charge of the NIH’s response to the AIDS epidemic. He completely botched that job–the Federal Government’s response was heavily influenced by the Gay lobby in this country. They wanted to deflect attention away from the fact that AIDS was a predominantly “gay” disease outside of IV drug abusers. The AIDS epidemic’s explosive growth was mainly due to the sexual habits of gay and bisexual men in this and other western countries. IV drug were the next largest risk group. The rates of AIDS in the heterosexual community were limited to people who had been infected through blood transfusions or were hemophiliacs.

            The surgeon general of the USA, C. Everett Koop, did a mass mailing to everyone in the country and he said that in a few years, everyone in America was going to be affected personally by AIDS. Everyone was going to have a family member, relative, co-worker or neighbor who will have contracted the disease. The message was that ANYONE could get AIDS and that the risk was the same for everybody.

            Total and complete horse manure. AIDS was never going to take off in the heterosexual community. It was always going to be contained within the gay/bisexual population. By making AIDS a disease that threatened everyone, the gay lobby would deflect attention away from them and AIDS research would get more funding.

            Well Fauci screwed up then and he’s screwing up now. Most people in this country aren’t at risk of dying from Covid-19. Instead of concentrating resources on protecting the people at high risk, the Federal Government has wasted billions of dollars on useless prevention measures on millions of people at little to zero risk.

            I’m not the only one who remembers how Fauci and the NIH messed up the AIDS response. Everything I’m saying is well known to epidemiologists and public health professionals that worked through those times.

            So that’s my response to you. And yes, I have been a co-author on scientific papers and reports.

          4. The vast majority of scientific papers on medicine and diseases are virtually unintelligible to a non-expert or student in a relevant field. It is totally wrong that any skills learned in grade school prepares a person for reading, understanding and making a critical judgement on papers published in science journals today.

            In fact it is widely recognized that most scientists can’t read papers outside of their area of expertise with any deep understanding. Things have gotten so complex and specialized that it is simply not possible to know even a little bit about everything.

            And the vast majority of practicing clinical physicians have only a very superficial understanding of the science underlying the diseases that they treat. MD’s only get one year of basic sciences and one year to learn about human diseases–then they do clinical clerkships where they hit the floors and try to absorb what to do with sick people. Then their residency programs teach them what they need to know to practice either in primary care, surgery or the other areas of medicine. They get no significant training in science or research.

          5. Here’s a review article on IL-6 chosen at random. Give me a summary of its contents in 4 sentences:
            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4176007/

            In the research my lab was involved in, we looked quite a bit at IL-6 (it’s been a hot topic for some time now). I didn’t have the foggiest idea what was going on in our experiments but neither did the post-docs or P.I.s.

          6. scientific papers on medicine and diseases are virtually unintelligible to a non-expert or student in a relevant field.

            Sorry, BS.

          7. AIDS was never going to take off in the heterosexual community.

            AIDS took off in the heterosexual community in Africa.

            And I don’t believe Fauxi either. I have only a vague memory of the AIDS epidemic, but IIUC, the scientists didn’t know at the time that HIV was largely spread through blood and you-know-what. It’s better to assume the worst than to leave people unprepared.

            We saw the same a year ago. Chris Martenson was ringing massive alarm bells on COVID because we didn’t know how serious it was. As more and more information came out, Martenson stopped the fear-mongering. This is not “lying;” it’s just being conservative. And it happens all the time internally, it’s just that public usually never sees it. The sausage-making of science is not unlike that of politics.

            You say that COVID stats mimic flu stats. OK, but flu doesn’t cause long-haul COVID. That’s what I’m worried about.

          8. Africa isn’t America. Name me three things in “Africa” that are different from America. Do these things affect health?

            Geography matters. Just like sex matters. You are an amateur.

          9. AIDS took off in the heterosexual community in Africa.

            IIRC, the spread of HIV in Africa was via sex workers serving men working and living away from home. While attending law school (circa 1998-2000), I had a roommate studying this.

          10. “…sex workers serving men working and living away from home.”

            And the use of “poppers” was also prevalent, IIRC.

          12. Galpin? Nope.
            That was true in Africa–one of the first researched heterosexual transmission studies found that AIDS was showing up along a major transportation route. They discovered that it involved truck drivers who were utilizing prostitutes, YES, I know that this seems impossible to believe! And furthermore, if I remember correctly, it also involved anal sex (you know, the kind that gay men have since they don’t have vaginas–a biology reminder in this day where gender doesn’t really exist.

            Also, the rate of infectious diseases in gastrointestinal tracts of the prostitute was very high which resulted in bleeding and compromised anal mucosa which made the transmission of HIV much easier. This is the reason why HIV transmission occurred so easily in gay men. In females, the vaginal walls are much stronger and have more “defensive” mechanisms to protect against disease causing organisms during heterosexual sex. The body is designed for “regular” sex. The G.I. tract does not have these protections because the body wasn’t “designed” for anal sex! You sex, SEX does matter when it comes to sex.

            So the heterosexual spread of HIV in Africa was because the heterosexuals there having sex was similar to homosexuals having sex here. And one other thing, the level of promiscuity of those male truck drivers was significantly higher than what is typically found in the heterosexual population here. So those truck drivers got infected and then infected their wives/partners when they got home.

            There, everything that you didn’t really want to know about HIV transmission in Africa.

        3. Where did you get your graduate school training in epidemiology
          A lot of what Oxide says sounds like it make come from Dr. John Campbell who has a You Tube channel and IS considered an expert on Covid -19.
          With that said, I have not hear Dr. Campbell address the CA issues but there are plenty of other channels that might be providing Oxide her information.

          1. Dr. John Campbell

            And what makes him “an expert on COVID-19”? From his YouTube about: My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focused on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

          2. Using the title of “Doctor” in this context is at best misleading and at worse fraudulent. Since the topic is Covid-19, “Doctor” implies either a Medical Doctor, O.D., MBBS, or a PhD in a scientific research field which involves infectious diseases or the study of the biology of said organisms. Nursing PhD and Doctorates in Education (EdD) ect. don’t count.

          3. Okay okay, you have all convinced me. If anyone posters or lurkers want to keep up with a pandemic, they can do their own research.

          5. One of my degrees has doctor in the title and I’m not called one. As one of my former supervisors who had a PhD used to joke, PhD stands for piled higher and deeper.

      2. as all the Grandmas get vaccines

        My father and stepmother get Pfizer jab #2 on Wednesday. Since jab #1, my stepmother has experienced nerve pain and trouble regulating her blood sugar.

        1. trouble regulating her blood sugar. Contrast that with this: A 78 yr old cousin of mine got a COVID-19 + RT-PCR test report for herself about 4 days after her 86 yr old brother in law was hospitalized with same. She has Type 2 DM controlled on exercise, diet and metformin. She checks her blood sugar twice daily. Prior to this her fasting BS and postprandial BS were slightly above normal, her HgA1c was normal for many months. When she turned + her blood sugars became completely normal, day after day, which she hadn’t observed on herself in years. Her doctor couldn’t explain. She asked me, my opinion was her immune system was fighting off the virus & the change in her energy use was changing her glucose metabolism. I predicted that (all other things being equal) after about 3 weeks her blood sugar measurements would return to her usual slightly elevated levels. That is exactly what happened. Your mileage may vary.

  17. Textbook Hypocrisy: Teachers Union Prez Who Led School Shutdowns Caught Dropping Daughter Off At Private School

    by Jamie White
    March 1st 2021, 11:48 am

    The video, posted by the group Guerilla Momz, shows Berkeley Federation of Teachers President Matt Meyer dropping off his 2-year-old (whose face is blurred out) at a private school.

    “Meet Matt Meyer. White man with dreads and president of the local teachers’ union,” the group tweeted Saturday. “He’s been saying it is unsafe for *your kid* to be back at school, all the while dropping his kid off at private school.”

    California teachers unions have been adamant about keeping schools closed despite the data showing children are the demographic least at risk to COVID-19.

    In fact, last month an entire northern California school board resigned after a leaked Zoom meeting showed them mocking parents for wanting their children back in school.

    Meanwhile, suicide among children and adolescents is spiking as the lockdowns continue with no end in sight.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/textbook-hypocrisy-teachers-union-prez-who-led-school-shutdowns-caught-dropping-daughter-off-at-private-school

      1. Good. I hope they go as far as they can.

        It’s pretty clear that Dems are trying to pass voting laws to create a permanent one-party rule. Heh, I’m not worried. At this rate of crazy, their one party is going to deteriorate faster than the President will. Then we get the Great Reshuffling, a shift in the Overton Window, and maybe some real representation for blue collar citizens.

        1. “At this rate of crazy, their one party is going to deteriorate faster than the President will.”

          That’s up for debate.

          Biden Thanks “Shirley Jackson-Lee” Then Asks “What Am I Doing Here”?

          15,251 views•
          Feb 28, 2021

          https://youtu.be/cPZgvvhODfA

          1. We must be the laughing stock of the world. We “elected” a man who should be at home, sitting on his rocking chair, to the White House.

  20. I think it should be obvious that big Monopolies have been successful in getting immunity from their harm by their corruption of Government agencies that we’re suppose to protect the public.

    Immunity from liability from vaccines. Immunity from suppression of news.
    Dr Fauci concerned about the New York Mutant Strain.
    This is where it becomes obvious they want to keep this Medical Fraud going of Covid19 with constant Lockdowns and getting the constant jabs.
    They are really showing their true colors now with the Mutant strains narrative fear mongering to keep the Medical Tyranny going.
    Always moving the goal posts to keep a Pandemic going by inaccurate tests and BS that mutations get more deadly. They haven’t even isolated the original Covid 19 let alone the so called Mutant strains.
    All the evidence adds up and points to Covid 19 being the regular flu, that somehow disappeared . To put this in Pandemic Status they had to have bogus tests of well people to up the number of cases.
    Oh, look at all the cases of super spreaders who are killing grandma.
    When have they ever tested non sick people to determine a case count of a Pandemic. Using older people with co morbidities who have died for decades from respiratory failure is the big lie to declare a Pandemic , so Lockdowns and untested vaccines could be unleashed by the profiteers like Bill Gates and Big Pharma.
    Goverment Agencies getting in bed with Profiteers of Medical Tyranny, not following the Science.
    Use your common sense. From two weeks to flatten the curve, to Mutant Strains , we can never be released from this Medical Tyranny.
    Historically Pandemics burn themselves out, but no not this time the varient strain going to get you.
    My older friend who subjected himself to two vaccines shots told me in essence that he feels good that he’s now protected. I didn’t have the heart to tell him he’s under threat from the new hype of the Mutant strains.
    I say show me these Mutant strains under microscope and prove they are more deadly. They are short on proof and long on fear mongering.
    And when you factor in the Great Reset agenda that these Power Mongers want to usher in , a entire restructuring of Society in accordance with the vision of these freaks that want Top Down Control of populations. Monopolies run by power mongers who have corrupted and hijacked Government and Government agencies, are the biggest threat to the people now. They already infected the World with their rigged economic systems .
    But, I’m just saying their fake narratives are getting more outrageous by the day. And it should be obvious that their war against over half the Citizens in the US is a outrageous power grab of attack normal Citizens, very when they are the enemy. They criminally rigged the election to put their Power Puppets in, because the Majority didn’t want their creepy fraudulent power grab agenda of Commie BS and Monopoly control, simply as being that.
    I believe they will fail in the long run , because of something that makes them fail, but I don’t know what it will be yet. A blowback of some sort that’s unpredictable right now.

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