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They’re Not Going To Be Throwing Good Money After Bad

A report from the Los Angeles Times in California. “LeBron James is ready to sell his Brentwood home at a loss. The Lakers star has listed a traditional-style estate in Brentwood Park at $20.5 million — about half a million shy of what he paid for it in 2015.”

From Page Six on California. “Armie Hammer shocked neighbors by moving out of his Los Angeles home in the dead of night this week, Page Six is told. As we revealed this month, Hammer and his estranged wife finally found a buyer for their $5 million home in the swanky Hancock Park neighborhood. The offer came in nearly two months after the former couple slashed the price of their three-story English Tudor home by $800,000.”

From Elite Agent. “Kelly Clarkson is now dropping the price of her Tennessee lake house – originally US$8.75 million – to $6.95 million. Since she’s been gone for a couple of years, the American has clearly opted to drop the price to ensure a sale, rather than let it sit idle. The lake house, in Hendersonville, is less than 30 minutes’ drive from downtown Nashville.”

From Patch Colorado. “A Denver luxury home, at 2605 18th St., hit the market late last year for $7.9 million, but is now listed for $6.5 million. The five-bedroom, six-bathroom house includes a three-car garage and a 1,500-square-foot guest suite.”

The Jewish Voice on New York. “The XI, the stunning pair of curving towers, between the Hudson River and the High Line in Chelsea, is attracting more than just memorized spectators. It is also getting slapped with lawsuits. GCE Belnord, an investor in the ambitious project the XI, sued the developer HFZ Capital for approximately $10 million.”

“As reported by Crain’s NY, the suit, filed in state Supreme Court in Manhattan, alleges that the developer was supposed to distribute the funds to GCE but kept it instead. In March 2015, GCE invested $68 million into a limited-liability company and the funds were to be used primarily to develop The XI.”

“Developer HFZ has been undergoing a series of financial woes and lawsuits in relation to its signature condo project. In July, Omnibuild Construction filed a lien on XI, alleging HFZ owes it about $100 million for work at The XI. Similarly, in December, Pioneer Window filed its own suit against HFZ, claiming it was not paid for roughly $24 million worth of work it completed on the project, as per Crain’s.”

From The Real Deal. “With its hotels business battered by the pandemic, Ashford Hospitality Trust took a cold, hard look at its portfolio and came to a sobering conclusion: The REIT was simply going to walk away from some of its struggling properties. And the company warned it could soon walk away from even more properties. Ashford isn’t the only investor making that difficult decision. Commercial real estate owners — particularly those in struggling sectors such as hotels and shopping malls — are giving up on their debt-laden properties rather than go through the foreclosure process.”

“It’s reminiscent of the housing crash of 2008, when homeowners who took out big loans suddenly found that their houses were worth less than their mortgages and simply walked away from the properties. There was even a term — ‘jingle mail’ — for owners who dropped their keys in an envelope and mailed them back to the bank.”

“‘It’s really just a rational economic decision,’ said Wendy Silverstein, co-founder of loan-workout company Silver Eagle Advisory Group. ‘They’re not going to be throwing good money after bad.'”

“Silverstein said that when borrowers take out their loans, they have to spell out in writing the circumstances under which they can hand back the keys. Smart borrowers, Silverstein said, make sure they’re covered. But a downturn usually exposes a few that forgot to read the fine print. ‘Every cycle, someone seems to learn that lesson anew,’ she said.”

The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “A tribunal has upheld an Abbotsford strata’s decision to deny an owner an exemption to its non-rentals clause, leaving the owner unable to sell or rent her unit, likely because of ‘massively higher’ monthly fees because of rising insurance fees. Kendra Gerbrandt said her inability to sell her two-bedroom condo last summer, despite ‘thousands’ of online views and 24 in-person showings over 142 days, caused her financial hardship and she applied for the rental exemption.”

“‘Building maintenance and insurance issues, compounded by increased strata fees, made it difficult to sell,’ her realtor, David Smith, a director of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, said in a report to a hearing of the Civil Resolution Tribunal, an agency that takes lesser cases to reduce court workloads.”

“Smith, whom the tribunal acknowledged as an expert witness, said the unit’s asking price of $197,600 was set at market value for two-bedrooms around 40 to 50 years old in the area and the unit was ‘thoroughly marketed,’ according to the written decision by the tribunal vice-chair, Kate Campbell. But the unit received only one offer, one day after it was listed, and ‘the sale did not complete due to insurance/building issues,’ she wrote, citing Smith’s report.”

“Gerbrandt bought the unit in 2016 for an undisclosed price and put the unit on the market in June 2020 because she got a new job at the end of May that as a condition of employment required her to live in Vancouver. On Aug. 15, she rented an apartment in Vancouver for $1,575 a month. She applied to the strata for the exemption three days later. The strata denied the exemption on hardship grounds because it said she made a ‘choice to live in Vancouver,’ and she could have lowered her asking price and relied on an equity loan until it sold.”

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    1. Fear Porn news roundup, Thursday edition. And a reminder that Real Journalists lost *ALL* credibility months ago when they reported that participating in a Burn Loot Murder insurrection granted immunity from COVID-19.

      New York Times — Plan to Ditch the Mask After Vaccination? Not So Fast (3/3/2021):

      https://archive.is/K9ed9

      Politico — New mask wars threaten Biden’s pandemic response at critical moment (3/3/2021):

      https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/03/biden-masks-texas-mississippi-473561

      The Hill — Experts warn US risks delaying ‘normal’ summer (3/4/2021):

      https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/541524-experts-warn-us-risks-delaying-normal-summer

      COVID-19 is the greatest fraud ever perpetuated on the American public. Nobody elected your alleged “experts” and the United States is not a nation of slaves. There is no “pandemic clause” in the Constitution.

      1. “…participating in a Burn Loot Murder insurrection granted immunity from COVID-19.”

        Inexcusable…and supported by academic partners who were hired to churn out junk science research to back up the questionable claim that BLM protesters wearing fashion scarfs over their faces can’t spread COVID-19.

        1. Also notable: Despite economy- and soul-crushing lockdown measures, California still leads the Nation in COVID-19 deaths. Makes you wonder whether all the BLM protests carried out here undermined the quarantine measures.

    2. I’ve pointed out the urine soaked mattress people never talk about lock down deaths and damage. Never. Why? Isn’t it completely relevant? They never talk about states or entire countries that didn’t follow this commie madness. Oh no, only they “care”. Pound sand you control freaks. You are needlessly killing millions of people as I type, and you have the nerve to claim moral ground?

      I’m traveling again on business for a few days. It’s interesting that so much goes on as normal, and always did. There never were bring out yer dead carts. Hospitals were never overwhelmed. When PTB engage in a bombardment of fear, day in and out (I’m never going to let them forget that BTW), they are up to evil. And that’s what this really is, and I don’t use the word lightly.

      1. Some damning words right there. But truthful statements usually are. You need a primetime slot on NewsmaxTV.

        1. This would be a great Newsmax/Oan show! Once a week, visit different cities, witness the overbuilding, the homelessness with shiny new empty apt towers behind, interviews with FBs who can’t sell. Case studies like a listing that was $200k in the 90s and is now $2mil. Sarah Carter-style investigative reports into corruption at city councils and airbnb donations to politicians. The Obiden directive to rezone suburbia. All these issues are political, and the political audience of Newsmax might finally understand rising housing prices are a bad thing.

          1. Ps I’ve never understood why Ben isn’t in great demand as a speaker. His expertise on all of the above would make a great case study for so much that has gone wrong in globalization. And once people realize that unaffordable housing and bubbles are not a glitch in the system but a perk, it becomes obvious housing has been politicized. I would think there would be plenty of local political groups, small business associations, etc., that would love to hear Ben’s perspective. It would even play well at CPAC, if explained the right way!

          3. the homelessness with shiny new empty apt towers behind

            And it’s going to get worse these next 4 years. A lot worse.

      2. I flew roundtrip between the two busiest airports in the country a few weeks ago and I’m not dead yet.

        I never said that COVID was a hoax, but the state of Florida has proven that it is a fraud.

        We’ve wasted a year of our lives on this now. All the old people who want vaccines can get them now. The rest of the Reddit neckbeard Lockdown Lovers should just STAY HOME.

      3. With the advent of social media and its globalist libtard leaders, in conjunction with the deranged liberal globalist-owned media, they have been running a non-stop 24/7 propaganda blitz to brainwash people.

        1. “With the advent of social media and its globalist libtard leaders, in conjunction with the deranged liberal globalist-owned media, they have been running a non-stop 24/7 propaganda blitz to brainwash people.”

          You use what works.

    3. The damage the shutdown has done to this generation of children is absolutely horrific.

      1. And it’s permanent. I was talking to my elderly aunt a few weeks ago. Without any prompting she offered that she was depressed. She started talking about how she was going to die without seeing her friends and family again. This is a woman who has loved life and had a smile on her face since I first remember her as a child.

        1. I was talking to my elderly aunt a few weeks ago. Without any prompting she offered that she was depressed

          A relative of mine has made similar comments. I got them an Alexa Show so we can do video calls, and just bought one for their best friend so they can be connected as well.

          It’s not the same as interesting in person, but hopefully it helps fend off loneliness and despair…

      2. OK, I talk about my older friend who apparently has now survived his second dose of the vaccine.
        So, I was talking to him and in summary he said he felt he was doing” the right thing” by taking the jabs.
        What BS, he took the jabs because the fear mongers had him scared out of his wits he was going to die.
        But the do the right thing language was directed at me as a non vaccine taker that I’m not doing the right thing.
        So he than said I could get the vaccine for free. Like that would make a difference to me. So, I realize this guy is trying to get me to take the jabs like he did.
        Than I was in line at the bank and some true believer yelled at me because I was five feet away from him rather than six. I said to the Dude, “Covid can go 18 feet, so , your not protected at 6 feet,” Than he said, “I’m just following the rules.”
        So , I hasn’t encountered the uptight rule enforcers yet , but it gave me a realization that they have brainwashed a lot of people to enforce their insane mandates.
        And it’s entirely insane that they let people go to Grocery Stores and Big Box Stores, as if the masks and 6 feet would prevent transmission of a airborne flu.
        So, the fact that I’m surrounded by brainwashed true believers in the Narratives peddled, and apparently they are enforcers of the insanity, they become a threat to me.
        It’s just such mass hysteria.
        So, I live in California where it’s 24/7 fake news, so I guess the compliance is really high here.
        And now California news is pushing the Mutant Stain Covid 19 narratives, with the Italian variant being added.
        So, this Medical Tyranny isn’t going to stop because now it’s the Mutant Strains going to get you.
        It’s unfortunate when lies move populations to do things that end up affecting everybody like” Real Estate always go up, Covid going to get you, Save Grandma by compliance.”
        I really thought people would be rejecting this insanity by now, but no, and people are getting more damaged by the day.

        1. ‘I live in California’

          The only thing I miss are the burritos and the sushi. I would say friends, but it’s not like they’re still there either. And there’s 1 food truck around town that actually makes a decent burrito.

          1. The only thing I miss are the burritos and the sushi

            The only thing I miss from San Diego is Roberto’s and the clones (Alibertos’s, etc.)

          3. Where are you now, if I might ask? (Trying to envision afterlife
            following 25 years in California.)

        2. who apparently has now survived

          With pathogenic priming, only time will tell. Nevertheless, TPTB will blame it on some new variant.

      3. Amazon best-seller list for books, as of today:

        1. Dr. Seuss — The Cat in the Hat
        2. Dr. Seuss — One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish
        3. Dr. Seuss — Green Eggs and Ham
        4. Dr. Seuss — Oh the Places You’ll Go
        5. Dr. Seuss — Dr. Seuss’s Beginner Book Collection
        6. Dr. Seuss — Fox in Socks
        7. Sister Souljah — Life After Death
        8. Dr. Seuss — The Foot Book
        9. Dr. Seuss — What Pet Should I Get
        10. Dr. Seuss — Horton Hears a Who
        11. Dr. Seuss — Dr. Seuss’s ABC
        12. Dr. Seuss — The Lorax
        13. Jordan Peterson — Beyond Order
        14. Adam Wallace — How to Catch a Leprechaun
        15. Stephen King — Later

        https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-books-Amazon/zgbs/books/ref=zg_bs_nav_0

        I don’t think these sales are dealers buying for ebay.

        1. I’d rather die than live in the world they’re trying to create. I’d gladly go to battle to save what we had. They’re destroying everything good we ever had.

          1. ‘They’re destroying everything good we ever had.’
            I hope that they don’t succeed in destroying the wisdom of gentlemen.

            ‘Ring out false pride in place and blood, The civic slander and the spite; Ring in the love of truth and right, Ring in the common love of good. Ring out old shapes of foul disease; Ring out the narrowing lust of gold; Ring out the thousand wars of old, Ring in the thousand years of peace.’

            — Alfred The Great

            ‘The war… was an unnecessary condition of affairs, and might have been avoided if forebearance and wisdom had been practiced on both sides.’

            ‘I have fought against the people of the North because I believed they were seeking to wrest from the South its dearest rights. But I have never cherished toward them bitter or vindictive feelings, and I have never seen the day when I did not pray for them.’

            — Robert E. Lee

          2. Forbearance and wisdom my butt.. Oh, the war might have been avoided … if only you had let us keep our slaves.

            Screw off, Robert E.

          4. Screw off, Robert E.

            The Democrats hated Lincoln and the Republicans like they hated DJT and the Republicans a century and a half later. Lincoln said at the start he wasn’t challenging slavery and about a dozen of the Northern States were slave states, though it was very clear the Republicans were against it. We’ve had the second civil war now going on five years and so far, the Republicans are down is the stats. This time it’s Commie Insanity vs. Liberty. We’re down a game, but not out.

        2. Stephen King

          I’ll never read anything this TDS-afflicted psycho ever writes again. Ditto Jim Carey, Robert DeNiro, etc.

        3. I don’t think these sales are dealers buying for ebay.

          Ebay has banned the sale of the “bad” Seuss book. It won’t be long until he’s completely cancelled.

          2. I find it interesting that the mob has gone after Geisel before going after C.S. Lewis or Tolkien. Perhaps they don’t care about Lewis as they see him relegated to the “Christian Ghetto”. Still, I find it interesting that they haven’t lost their minds over the Narnia Chronicles, as the bad guys are dark skinned people from from a land called Calormen.

  3. ‘Since she’s been gone for a couple of years, the American has clearly opted to drop the price to ensure a sale, rather than let it sit idle’

    Here’s the familiar theme: if it was red-hotcakes, these idiots would be happy to let it sit idle and watch that sweet equity grow! They were speculating on appreciation. When they see that isn’t happening, they bail, or try to. So what happened to the monthly price reduced statistics that redfin and other REIC dogs used to put out? Cuz that exposed the similar lack of logic in their boosterism horse sh$t.

    1. So what happened to the monthly price reduced statistics that redfin and other REIC dogs used to put out? Cuz that exposed the similar lack of logic in their boosterism horse sh$t.

      Pimps be pimpin’, yo’.

    2. The tidal wave starts in the middle and ripples outwards. It picks up steam as it goes along and by the time it hits the shore it delivers its devastating blow.

      This is a perfect metaphor for what happened in 2008-9 and it’s what is going to happen this time as well. The expensive homes in the high end neighborhoods go down first but the real destruction comes at the end of the cycle when the keys start coming in the mail by the millions.

      When the foreclosure moratoria cease it will be epic.

  5. ‘the developer was supposed to distribute the funds to GCE but kept it instead’

    You see more of this sort of thing in NY, but it’s not limited to there. Sure, I’ll “invest” a ton of money and you give it back to me. What could go wrong?

  6. I just got this email:

    Owner Has Purchased Another & Must Sell

    OFFERED AT $1,599,000
    137 S Spalding Dr #106
    BEVERLY HILLS, CA 90212

      1. That HOA is NOTHING for LA. Every high rise around is minumim $1000 per month, but that usually means the building has a lot of deferred maintenance they’ve put off that will mean a huge assessment later. Every building I know of has had their HOA fees go up around 50% in the last 5 years. $1800 pm is pretty usual, and for buildings on the Wilshire corridor it’s more like $2500 pm and up.

        Speaking of, I just saw a high-rise apt for rent at $8500 pm in a very special building, the lowest rent in the building I’ve ever seen (been watching since the 2000s bubble). The apt is also for sale at $3mil, which, with mortgage and HOA would cost $12k+ per month to own, not counting taxes. So renting far far cheaper than owning in that price range. With HOAs as they are, the apt should be free.

  9. CNBC — More than 1 in 3 cryptocurrency investors know little to nothing about it, survey finds (3/4/2021):

    “A lack of knowledge or understanding hasn’t stopped people from buying virtual currencies, though. More than 40% of all crypto purchases come from new investors, the survey finds.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/04/survey-finds-one-third-of-crypto-buyers-dont-know-what-theyre-doing.html

    The sooner these millennials loose all of their money, the better.

    1. They know that the price rose from pennies to over $50,000 after Unlimited Quantitative Easing.

      1. And that’s good enough to make all the greedy jump in, most at higher prices. Why didn’t these people want Bitcoin at lower prices?

        1. By the way, that’s my own personal bubble indicator no matter the product – more interest at higher prices than at lower prices.

          1. Ditto our friends here who are not trampling each other to buy PM at lower prices.

            Not that I think it is time to buy, or was at higher prices.

    2. More than 1 in 3 cryptocurrency investors know little to nothing about it, survey finds (3/4/2021)

      This is something I’ve been talking to people about any time crypto comes up. It’s a bunch of shills who have no idea what they’re even talking about. The extent of their knowledge is something akin to “it’s the blockchain, dude.”

      1. The financial youtubes aren’t any smarter. Ask them why they bought, and the answer is something like “Michael Saylor bought it” or “Elon Musk bought it” or “Institutional investors are now getting in.” In other words, it’s the same too-big-to-fail threat we see with banks: This is now valuable because we say so, and if you regulate us, we’ll go bankrupt and take all the little guys with us.

        1. I wouldn’t be surprised if the FED is buying Bitcoin. That’s how twisted this situation has become.

    1. Quote from the Human Rights Commission: “If legislators would simply listen to medical experts and transgender athletes, they might know that transitioning for the sake of a competitive advantage is simply unrealistic. ”

      Because all those doctors and identifiers would never ever ever ever ever lie about why they’re really identifying cross their heart and hope to die. Let’s take away the scholarships and see how many really identify.

      In the mid-1980s, the US was totally up in arms about the totally doped-up East German women’s Olympic team. The drugs partially turned the athletes into men. Now, the US is doing almost the same thing and it’s hailed as some kind of victory.

      1. Ox: I always look to find the first question, which is how are records broken? Incrementally 1/4″ here .01 second, 0.05 points there. So if trans people run 200yards and its a photo finish like a horse race, i m ok with that but if you are 20 feet in front of the next woman you have to be disqualified. Same with any other event throw a shotput 53 feet and the woman’s record is 50, there is noway a bio woman can ever beat that now if its 50 feet and 1/2 inch….

  13. “LeBron James is ready to sell his Brentwood home at a loss. The Lakers star has listed a traditional-style estate in Brentwood Park at $20.5 million — about half a million shy of what he paid for it in 2015.”

    Anybody notice that all of these younger “stars” change houses like they change their clothes? The old school ones didn’t do that. People like Johnny Carson, Hugh Hefner, etc., bought a beautiful place and lived there until they died.

    1. I think it’s because they never make their mansions their home. When you see pictures of these places, there’s absolutely nothing that gives away who actually lives there. Plus they often have more than one. It’s like a car for them, albeit a very pricey one.

  14. Anybody find it weird that precious metals have fallen as $2 trillion more in government largesse was agreed to by Congress? I’m starting to consider a situation where they are topped out and really don’t go anywhere, then the FED is forced to start tightening and they actually fall. Not sure, just something I was thinking about given the price activity. Looks like the PM bugs are pretty deflated. Their expectations were not met.

    1. Higher bond yields attract monies away from non-income producing assets like PMs and Bitcoin.

    2. “Anybody find it weird that precious metals have fallen as $2 trillion more in government largesse was agreed to by Congress?”

      In the world of precious metals (as in the world of many financial assets) Price equals Value.

      The story that drives price increases is just that, a story; The reality of what drives price increases are the price increases themselves.

      Create a good story for a product and then unleash and direct the vast stupidity of most people toward promoting the purchase of the product and – presto! – you have created a buying frenzy, a buying frenzy powered by rising prices.

      Works for real estate, Beanie Baby dolls, precious metals. Works for lots of things.

      It works because, at root, most people are stupid.

      1. ‘Create a good story for a product and then unleash and direct the vast stupidity of most people toward promoting the purchase of the product and – presto!’

        Mr. Banker, I’ve learned to defeat your games. How? I leverage this exact principle — by accepting my own stupidity. I learned that I’m too stupid to know if metals will go up or down. Charts? WTF is that? Instead, I learned to only buy when people are stupidly giving them away. Silver Eagles at $13, ‘Sign me up!’ Maple Leafs at $17.25 AFTER the first COVID bailout was announced and people were still debating the mouth diaper? What, are people too stupid to see it? See how stupidity, patience, and self restraint can help the little guy?

        What will the prices be tomorrow, or next year? FIIK. An outbreak of Political / fiscal restraint and banker remorse leading to balanced budgets and renewed optimism? I may be dumb, but I’m not a complete moron.

        1. Heh. The day that oil went negative, I bought more of an oil mutual fund. That one move wiped out the past 3 years of losses for that fund. It wasn’t a lot of money, but I was stunned how few people were doing it.

    3. Their expectations were not met.

      In 1964 my uncle told me they were taking the silver out of dimes and that it would be a good idea to save them. I still have a handful of them in a drawer. I guess they are worth $2.50.

      1. August 6, 2020 high was $2089.20. Current level is $1680 (+/-), a drop of 19.6%. That’s a lot of CR8R, and a hair’s breadth away from a bear market.

        1. Unlike stonks?

          Words We’re Watching
          The Story Behind ‘Stonks’
          Buying low and selling high in the meme market

          What to Know

          Stonk, a deliberate misspelling of stock (meaning “a share of the value of a company which can be bought, sold, or traded as an investment”), was coined in a 2017 meme. The word is often used humorously on the internet to imply a vague understanding of financial transactions or poor financial decisions.
          …

          1. PB: That’s kind of my point. Right now people are buying high to sell higher, for everything. I think that it will end in tears. When I was a young man, I thought that I was smart enough to play that game. I think someone who is good at judging social mood, like a poker player, has the right skills. I learned the hard way that I don’t. When I hear of people trying to use things like logic, reason, and facts, my heart goes out to them. I want the world to be understandable. The problem is that it isn’t, because it’s rigged. The longer you play in the casino, the more you lose. Emotions and free drinks impair judgement, even for the best of us. I’m far from that.

            ‘Margin of safety’ is an archaic concept, but it is inherently less risky. It’s not that things of tangible value, like PMs or land, can’t be bought with a margin of safety. It’s that they can’t be bought right now with a margin of safety. Knowing my own limitations, for me, it means that they can’t be bought right now. I would rather reduce the risk of being hurt to the risk of dropping something of genuine tangible value on my toes. Who knows, maybe Gold Eagles will become stupidly cheap. I’ve seen it before.

            Becoming older hasn’t made me smarter, but it has made me more patient. As Mr. Banker says, ‘You use what works.’

          3. Becoming older hasn’t made me smarter, but it has made me more patient.

            With regards to housing, it’s made me less patient….I’m ready to settle in and start living my “next” life.

            Sadly, prices are crazy stupid high and things are moving quickly. Made an offer on land today that is way more than I’d like to pay, but it still works with our financial model, and I’m willing to pay a premium to no longer be sitting in a “holding pattern”.

            It p*sses me off that I have to compete with the loose money out there, and people who are getting free money from the government (I’d say “my tax money”, but it’s really just all printed).

            I just want a quiet place to live…

          5. Understandable Drumminj. I dropped out of holding pattern long ago to have a shop/studio. I didn’t pay much, and it was still too high, but I only have so many years to indulge in my passions. I hope for you that you don’t have to mortgage it.

        2. I’m happy to rent for the rest of my life rather than buy something at the peak. I’d hate myself for that decision, especially as I sat in my overpriced shack and watched the meltdown.

          1. I’m with you, rip: Willing to rent forever, if necessary, especially with a massive oversupply of rental housing on the road to Craterville, with more new construction in the pipeline.

          2. The more I ponder “retirement,” Professor, the more I think I’d like to live in many different places for several years until I get too old to move around. A house is just an anchor, and you’re a slave to yard maintenance, etc.

            I’ve never even been there, but I’ve wanted to rent a place in Key West for a winter. Then maybe head up to the coast of Maine for the summer. The next year I might try somewhere on the gulf coast for the winter, then maybe the UP in Michigan for the summer. I don’t need to own a house for any of that.

            Then someday when I’m tired of driving, I’ll just buy a manufactured home somewhere cheap in the southwest. By that time I’m sure the crash will have commenced and I’ll pick up my toe tag place for a song, if that’s even what I want to do. I may just want to go to some senior center where I can be around people my age. That’s a long way off, though.

          3. “I’ve never even been there, but I’ve wanted to rent a place in Key West for a winter.”

            I’ve pondered the same fantasy, but I’m putting two through University right now.

    2. 10-year yield is up. DXY is up. That means the dollar is strengthening and prices of everything are dropping accordingly.

      1. the dollar is strengthening

        Absolutely laughable. Print like there’s no tomorrow and it strengthens? Good lord…

    3. “Right now people are buying high to sell higher, for everything. I think that it will end in tears.”

      It’s the usual bubble era battle between the bovine herd you mentioned versus the Big Short people playing the waiting game.

      Eventually the Big Short peops will appear to be the smartest guys in the room. Only time will tell when.

  17. Any thoughts on where all the sh!tty commercial real estate loans are going to wind up after the pandemic is a memory?

    1. The Financial Times
      The Big Read Property sector
      Property and the pandemic: the great reckoning that never seems to arrive
      US creditors are wary of calling in commercial real estate loans because many do not want to be saddled with undesirable assets
      © Massimo Salesi / Alamy
      Joshua Chaffin in New York March 2 2021

      When the wolves came to Ziel Feldman’s door, it was a triplex penthouse on the Upper East Side of Manhattan. Feldman, chief executive of HFZ Capital, one of the city’s swankiest developers, was forced in December to put his own house up for sale — asking price: $39m — after creditors sued to foreclose on several of his faltering condominium projects.

      To many in the real estate world, that event looked like a harbinger of doom. By then, lenders had granted months of forbearance after the Covid-19 pandemic paralysed New York City last March. The expectation in the industry was that many would call time on delinquent borrowers in the new year, touching off a great reckoning after a decade-long rally that has bequeathed plenty of questionable projects.

      “The non-performing loans are coming!” Laurie Golub of Square Mile Capital warned in November at the annual conference hosted by New York University’s Schack Institute of Real Estate, claiming that lenders had been “coddling” borrowers. “Don’t expect creditors to extend forbearance much longer,” another panellist agreed. One analyst likened the situation to a storm cloud on the horizon poised to burst at the first crack of lightning.

      But a strange thing has happened since then: creditors have broadly held fast, creating a period of leniency that is approaching a full year for some borrowers, and has persisted longer than any seasoned professionals can recall.
      …

    2. Any thoughts on where all the sh!tty commercial real estate loans are going to wind up after the pandemic is a memory?

      In a place where the chosen ones don’t have to take a loss, probably. I don’t understand some aspects of commercial real estate. For instance, there’s an old K-Mart building that’s been vacant for, I don’t know, almost 20 years. Same for an old Lowes location that moved. I’ll have to drive by them because it’s been a long time. How does somebody sit on something that big and “valuable” for that long with no income? Wouldn’t you want something? Deep pockets. Very, very, very deep pockets is all I can think of.

  20. This current stock market collapse is the everything bubble popping. Wonder how many took out HELOC’s to buy the likes of Tesla stock thinking they couldn’t lose?

    1. Are you ready for inflation and higher bond yields?

      Mr Martin seems not to be ready.

      2. The Financial Times
        US interest rates
        Powell inflation comments send US stocks and bonds lower
        Nasdaq falls over 2% as Fed chair sticks to ‘patient’ policy despite spike in Treasury yields
        Jay Powell’s comments unnerved traders anticipating stronger-than-expected growth and rising inflation
        James Politi in Washington and Colby Smith in New York
        10 hours ago

        Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, triggered a sudden sell-off in long-term US Treasury debt and equities after he vowed to keep monetary policy steady even as the economy improves and inflation begins to rise.

        Speaking on Thursday afternoon, Powell said the central bank expected to be “patient” in withdrawing support for the recovery, given that the labour market remained far from the central bank’s goal of full employment and had made little progress in recent months.

        Powell’s comments failed to alleviate fears that the central bank is reacting too slowly to the recent rise in inflation expectations and long-term Treasury yields.

        Although the Fed chair suggested central bank officials were closely watching the market movements, he did not signal any looming intervention by the Fed to cap long-term Treasury yields, saying it would take much more to perturb him.

        “As it relates to the bond market, I’d be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or by a persistent tightening in financial conditions broadly that threatens the achievement of our goals,” Powell said.

        The US market decline following Powell’s remarks is a possible harbinger of more volatility to come. The Fed’s view that there is a high bar to any tightening of policy is increasingly clashing with investor expectations of a rapidly improving recovery.
        Line chart of 10-year Treasury yield (%) showing US government bond yields rise as Powell speaks

        “This is all uncharted and hence uncomfortable territory for all of us,” said Tim Duy, a Fed-watcher and economics professor at the University of Oregon, in a note after Powell’s remarks. “Barring a financial accident, the Fed will tend to hold a steady path — emphasising its commitment to low rates until inflation rises sustainably above 2 per cent — as sentiment shifts around it.”

        Yields on 10-year Treasuries spiked 0.07 percentage points to 1.55 per cent after Powell’s remarks, reviving a rout in the $21tn market for US government debt. Investors are grappling with the prospect of a stronger-than-expected recovery and higher inflation later this year.

        One market measure of inflation expectations, the 5-year break-even rate, hit 2.5 per cent on Wednesday for the first time since 2008. Inflation erodes the value of bonds’ income payments, making them less attractive.
        …

    2. bears have left hibernation early this winter?
      It is beginning to Feel like March 2000 again, so I took somethings off the table about 1 week ago.

      Probably not enough but Oh well.

  23. Today is Friday, March 5th and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    1. This is a pearl clutching article.

      NPR — Trump Is No Longer Tweeting, But Online Disinformation Isn’t Going Away (3/5/2021):

      “In the past year, Americans spent more time than ever online and got more of their information from unreliable or false sources. Even with the de-platforming of former President Donald Trump, experts say the way Americans communicate and receive information online remains broken.”

      LOL@ “experts say”

      “We are in serious trouble,” said Joan Donovan, the research director of Harvard University’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy. “Disinformation has become an industry, which means the financial incentives and the political gains are now aligned.”

      “Of the people who have spread the most noxious lies about the 2020 election, many of them retain their social media accounts on most platforms,” said Donovan. “When you don’t get the people who are authoring the fictions, the people who are behind the orchestration of that disinformation, then it will eventually come back in different forms.”

      https://www.npr.org/2021/03/05/971767967/trump-is-no-longer-tweeting-but-online-disinformation-isnt-going-away

      The 2020 election was stolen.

      1. You have to show an ID to fly on an airplane but the Democrat Party is pushing through a bill making it illegal to require an ID to vote.

        The 2020 election was stolen.

    1. Joe Biden is not, and never will be, the legitimately elected president of the United States.

      The 2020 election was stolen.

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