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They’d Rather Overspend Today To Ensure They’re Not Priced-Out Tomorrow

A weekend topic starting with Now Toronto. “A Scarborough bungalow is currently listed at $2.2 million, which is double the record-breaking average price for a home in the Greater Toronto real estate market. The selling agents says that price is not evidence that Canadians are sitting on a housing bubble, as one economist has recently said. The listing says the massive 119 x 112.42 foot lot has approval to be split in half so that a buyer can build two large homes on the property. Realtor Dan Hoffman, who is representing the seller, estimates that building 5,000 square-foot homes on each lot would cost an extra $1 million each. So that’s an approximately $4.2 million investment.”

“‘You’re looking at $2.6 or 2.7 million,’ says Hoffman, predicting what each home would fetch.”

“There’s at least one person in Toronto who wouldn’t go for that proposition. Economist David Rosenberg told BNN Bloomberg that Canada might be experiencing ‘one of the biggest bubbles of all time’ and that he would ‘absolutely not’ invest in a home in the Greater Toronto real estate market.”

“Rosenberg was speaking in reaction to the Bank of Canada’s announcement that they will be holding the overnight interest rate at the record-low 0.25 per cent. He pointed out that Canada’s unemployment rate is at 9.5 per cent, which is higher than peaks during the last two recessions, ‘including the great financial crisis.'”

“I tell Hoffman the idea of a West Hill fetching close to $3 million sounds astronomical. ‘A lot has to do with who’s buying them,’ he responds, suggesting we get away from thinking the traditional four-person family with $125,000 is the only kind of customer in the Toronto real estate market. ‘I’m on the frontlines and I see two families moving into a house like this,’ says Hoffman. ‘I see people buying a house and renting out the basement for $2000. I see a lot of gifted money. I’ve seen parents put $500,000 into their kid’s pocket for the down payment. There’s a lot of money out there.'”

The Toronto Sun. “In the final week of February, a fairly unremarkable 17-foot wide semi hit the market in the west end of the city. It was nice enough, though not particularly large and not particularly updated. It had one parking spot. It was listed just under $1.5M. Well, it lasted a day. The selling price? Just over $2.1M. Let that sink in for a moment.”

“As Chris Kapches, CEO of my real estate brokerage Chestnut Park Real Estate said, what we are witnessing — in real time — is the ‘complete untethering of fair market value from the economic factors responsible for establishing fair market value. House prices have entirely detached from reality.'”

“Interest rates so low that we now joke about money being essentially free. And prices rising so quickly as to produce panic among buyers, their fear of missing out so intense they’d rather overspend today to ensure they’re not priced-out tomorrow.”

From Summit Daily in Colorado. “Summit County’s real estate market was robust before the pandemic hit, but lately, the market has skyrocketed. With the current climate of potential buyers outbidding one another — and even offering much more than asking price — some people are wondering: Is this another housing bubble, like the one that burst during the last recession?”

“‘There is a (buying) frenzy, but it is most definitely not a bubble,’ said broker Ned Walley. ‘It’s a permanent, seismic shift.'”

From CBS in California. “As for how long the bidding wars will last, Michael Delehanty, a Real Estate Agent for Compass, says it doesn’t look like it will let up anytime in the next three to six months. ‘The outlandish aspect is not feeling like this is a bubble, not feeling like this is an unsustainable run-up on the market,’ Delehanty said.”

From NBC DFW. “‘Sellers’ asking prices have marched upward every week this year. Buyers have learned that if they aren’t aggressive enough one week, they will have to bid higher on a home that’s listed the following week,’ Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said.”

The Palm Beach Daily News in Florida. “On the market for six years, the massive ocean-to-lake estate of the billionaire Ziff family has finally sold in Manalapan for about $94.17 million. The 15.65-acre compound at 2000 S. Ocean Blvd. near the Boynton Beach Inlet was last listed at $115 million by Sotheby’s International Realty, although it had been marketed privately in early 2015 by other agencies for $195 million, the same price it had when it first entered the multiple listing service in 2016.”

“Agent Cristina Condon had represented the property with her colleagues since May 2017. By then the estate’s price had dropped to $165 million and fell to $137.5 million before briefly rising to $138.8 million. Last August, the property’s price dropped to $115 million.”

The Real Deal on New York. “When South Korea’s Meritz Securities put together a $350 million inventory loan for a Ceruzzi Properties condo tower last February, it seemed the company’s appetite for risk was growing. The pandemic, which hit New York City a few weeks later, has certainly put risk appetites to the test. For the loan on the Centrale, in Midtown East, caution might have been warranted: A lawsuit alleges the $110 million mezzanine portion is in default.”

“The state-owned Industrial Bank of Korea, acting as trustee for the investment trust backing the debt, is seeking $40 million in damages. According to a suit filed in Manhattan Supreme Court, Ceruzzi missed a $2.35 million interest payment in November. Following an acceleration and with default interest, IBK says the total amount owed is now more than $86 million, of which up to $40 million is subject to a payment guarantee.”

“‘To date, no payment has been received and the full balance remains outstanding,’ IBK’s lawyers wrote when the suit was filed in late January.”

From People Magazine. “Steve Tennison, who owns 98 apartments in a two-story garden-style complex in north Houston, has been lauded by the local apartment association for going out of his way to help renters. Business was going well before COVID. Last April, tenant after tenant started coming in with ’empty pockets,’ Tennison says. Meanwhile, ‘I was watching my bank balance go lower and lower,’ he says. ‘I have about 18 people who trusted me with their life savings to invest in this apartment complex deal,’ he says.”

“Today Tennison says he is breaking even. ‘I’m on the knife edge of profitability and insolvency,’ he says. ‘This is not what I signed up for. It’s a lot riskier than I thought it would be.'”

“The pandemic hurt high-end landlords too. Wayne Zussman owns three condominiums in Washington, D.C. ‘I’ve never had a day without rent in 35 years,’ he says, but urban living has fallen out of favor because of COVID. Compounding that, ‘People with no jobs or a cut in pay are not looking to move,’ he says. One of Zussman’s condo has been vacant for three months and the others may soon be vacated too. Meanwhile, he’s on the hook for expenses, including HOA fees and maintenance.”

“PC Wang owns and manages three apartment buildings in Montrose, an area close to downtown Houston. Vacancies were rare. Now, with restaurants, gyms and offices at a standstill, many of his tenants have fallen behind on rent. Vacancy is up to 20 percent. ‘It is the landlords [who are] the group of people who get hurt most,’ he says. ‘I’m the one who gets stuck. Every month I owe more and more money. I’m going backward. I will never be able to pay it off. I can get by one day at a time, but I owe more money. I don’t know what I’m going to do. I don’t see my dream coming true.'”

“Wang immigrated from Taiwan 50 years ago and worked in IT for years before taking his savings and investing in apartments. At 74, he’s financially helping his two children and three grandchildren, with another on the way, and now he has less to give. He wishes he could hire a manager and retire, but right now he has negative cash flow. ‘You say this is a rich country — it’s a joke,’ he says. ‘Everyone is struggling.'”

The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “ANZ Bank chief executive Shayne Elliott has predicted banks could be forced to rein in higher risk mortgage lending at some stage, as cheap debt drives up house prices and regulators worry about the market overheating. With Australian house prices rebounding rapidly from the pandemic, the bank chief said property prices would remain ‘well supported,’ which could ultimately force policymakers to step in, as has occurred in previous booms.”

“Mr Elliott said rising house prices tended to cause social and political problems, such as worries about first home buyers being locked out of the market. There would also be ‘some concern’ from financial regulators about the risks from banks lending against high-priced assets. New Zealand authorities recently introduced caps on loans with smaller deposits, and Mr Elliott said he thought some sort of similar intervention may ultimately occur in Australia.”

“‘Just based on what we know today.. you would have to say it’s more likely than not at some point,’ he said. ‘I don’t think it’s immediate, I don’t think it’s going to happen this week. It may not even happen this year.'”

“The types of policies that could be implemented included restrictions on loan-to-valuation ratios, he said, and there had also been a ‘good debate’ about debt-to-income ratios. Despite the possibility of regulatory intervention, Mr Elliott said there were not yet any signs of more irresponsible lending by banks, and he did not believe the market was in bubble territory.”

The Globe and Mail. “The bull, it seems, has gone berserk. What had been a relentless but mostly orderly rise in stock prices since last spring has given way to a riotous new phase of the bull market, fuelled by frenzied trading among the growing ranks of small investors and rookie day traders.”

“Over the last couple of weeks, an army of retail investors has latched on to a bizarre assortment of companies that had been left for dead by the professionals, setting off a cascade of turmoil through financial markets that has astonished the investing establishment. Since the COVID-19-induced market crash started nearly a year ago, a once-unfathomable volume of monetary and fiscal stimulus has provided a steady supply of adrenaline to revive financial markets.”

“Miniscule interest rates have made the stock market the only game in town. It’s hard to make decent returns with an acceptable level of risk almost anywhere else. And with the market clearly pricing in postpandemic gains in the economy and corporate earnings, stocks are on a run for the ages. It’s getting harder to ignore the signs that speculative excess has inflated the bubble in stocks. The IPO market is red hot, social media platforms are teeming with stock-market banter, investor sentiment indicators are off the charts and penny stocks have caught fire.”

“‘When your teenaged cousin living in the basement starts talking about trading stock options, that is usually the sign of a market bubble,’ said Jason Del Vicario, a portfolio manager in Vancouver. ‘There are just crazy amounts of speculative interest in the market right now. The last time we saw this was in 1999 and 2000. Nobody cares about valuation. It goes up, so you buy it.'”

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This Post Has 117 Comments

  2. Let’s get this out the way to start with: central bankers are dangerous idiots.

    ‘Interest rates so low that we now joke about money being essentially free. And prices rising so quickly as to produce panic among buyers, their fear of missing out so intense they’d rather overspend today to ensure they’re not priced-out tomorrow’

    This is pretty much the definition of a mania. I know this post is too long, but it could have been longer, that how much contradicting horses$t is out there. It’s a FOMO boom! But a shack sells for half. Entire condo towers go into default without making one payment!

    1. “Let’s get this out the way to start with: central bankers are dangerous idiots.”

      – Yes, +1. Unfortunately (for society at large) only a tiny percentage of people understand this, which is fortunate (for central bankers), for now.

      – The Fed (U.S. central bank) is trapped and they know it. Current options: Door #1: Raise rates and reduce $ printing. Outcome #1 = stocks and housing crash, since neither can handle the “truth” of higher rates or tighter credit. Door #2: Continue with easy $ policies and do nothing to change. Outcome #2: The asset bubbles continue to inflate until there are no more greater fools. The house of cards comes crashing down. The longer the bubble inflates, the bigger the crash. I’m not seeing a viable Door #3.

      – Since the Fed doesn’t want to be blamed for blowing the third (and biggest) asset bubble (The Everything Bubble) and the inevitable popping of said bubble, they’ll continue with Door #2 for as long as possible, until all of the asset bubbles pop. At that point we hit “The Great Reset.” All is going according to plan. They will try to blame the made in China pandemic, but that’s just scapegoating. They own this.

      – Am I wrong?

      – Reference: John Law and the Mississippi bubble.

      – In the real world, debt and deficits can’t keep growing to infinity. IMHO, we’re pretty close to the physical limits of the Fed pulling demand forward with formerly billions and now untold trillions of ex nihilo printed $s.

      “A billion [trillion] here, a billion [trillion] there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.” – Everett Dirksen [inflation adjusted]

      “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” – Albert A. Bartlett (1923-2013), Professor Emeritus in Nuclear Physics at University of Colorado at Boulder

      “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” – Kenneth Boulding, economist

      “Trees don’t grow to the sky.” – German Proverb

      Stein’s Law: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” – Herbert Stein (1916-1999), Economist

      https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/consequences-they-are-unavoidable/
      Consequences – They are unavoidable
      “Consequences are unavoidable. Pension savers are crushed by interest rate repression and the changing demographics of Covid, while the deluge of debt fueled by low rates does nothing for economic sustainability.”
      Bill Blain | March 11, 2021
      Blain’s Morning Porridge

      “One of the things any investor must understand is that everything has consequences. There are always consequences. They are unavoidable. 13 years of monetary experimentation by central banks has profound consequences. For everybody.”

      “The most obvious consequence is that distorting interest rates distorts the price of every single asset class; from credit, equity, property [i.e. housing] and alternatives. Every asset prices off the risk-free rate – the most important being US Treasuries – but when these are artificially held low, then the price of every single other asset class on the planet is also distorted by relative pricing effects – exactly what has fueled the stupendous inflation in financial asset prices since 2008.”

      “Another consequence is mispriced risk – a fundamental misunderstanding of how artificial interest rates hide, magnify and distort risk assumptions. Ultra-low interest rates have enabled a deluge of new debt issued by corporates and government – which most people assume must be some kind of good thing.  Yet the consequences are massively increased fears about the unsustainability of burgeoning government debt in terms of monetary instability and declining confidence in fiat currencies, which has fuelled the ridiculous right-wing notion that independent cryptocurrencies are better than money – because they remove the distortions of government???”

      “Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences.” – Robert Louis Stevenson

    2. stocks and housing crash

      I was talking to a fellow Poweegan on Friday about the current state of the local housing market. She was actually trying to convince herself that Poway values wouldn’t go down anytime soon because Poway was different. I assured her it’s not and asked if she was familiar with the hyperinflation in Weimar Germany. She was not.

      1. hyperinflation in Weimar Germany

        Consider that may not be possible under the circumstances. Look at how that happened.

        What we are facing is a collapsing debt pyramid crisis.

      2. Poweegans thought that Poway was “different” in the 90’s. They were insufferable at the office in Rancho Bernardo.

        1. Rancho Bernardo

          RB changed a lot with housing developments in the early 2000s. It’s like Carmel Valley 2.0.

      3. “…asked if she was familiar with the hyperinflation in Weimar Germany. She was not.”

        How did she end up in tony Poway, CA, the vertical smile?

          1. Wow, that is ugly AF. It’s a combination of the worst of farmhouse kitch and Minimalist Millenial Gray put together.

            By the way, in the same area manufactured homes sold sub-$125K, some as low as $70K. How is this possible? Even with lot rent I thought housing would be more expensive than that. Were they sold in bulk?

          2. Were they sold in bulk?

            It’s low inventory coupled with a desirable lot. Check out the price history:
            12/22/2020 Sold $820,000 (+4.6%) $539/sqft
            11/24/2020 Pending sale $783,999 $515/sqft
            11/18/2020 Price change $783,999 (-2%) $515/sqft
            9/25/2020 Listed for sale $799,999 (+18.2%) $526/sqft
            9/13/2017 Sold $677,000 (+0.3%) $445/sqf

          3. “Wow, that is ugly AF. It’s a combination of the worst of farmhouse kitch and Minimalist Millenial Gray put together.”

            That interior looks out of place in a California rancher.

          4. Wow, that is ugly AF

            You’re not kidding. Those countertops… And is that a trap door outside the sliding glass door? That looks like a $100k house at best.

        2. in tony Poway, CA
          in the same area manufactured homes

          Poway as a whole is far from tony. A visit to the Walmart down the street from that house and you’ll think you’re in the rural South. Twin Peaks Rd is the Maxon-Dixon line of Poway.

          2. “Poway as a whole is far from tony.”

            Agreed, it’s just high prices, not old money. I couldn’t think of another term. Heck, California as a whole is far from tony with their ranch homes, polo shirts, tattooed cleavage, etc., compared to the east coast with their Colonial architecture, ties and blouses that button around the neck.

          4. just high prices

            A $1M house in CA right now is far from big or glamorous and it’s get worse by the day with low inventory.

    3. Two commentators that I really respect are Charles Hugh Smith and Jim Rickards. Their view is that the global economy is best understood as a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). The Newtonian models that Central Bankers employ give them false confidence in their ability to ‘fine tune’ and ‘control’ the economy. They don’t provide for that. It also rings true to my ears when Jim Rickards says that policy makers that he has advised can’t wrap their minds around it. Academia has struggled to digest nonlinear systems for decades. I like Taleb’s ‘intellectual yet idiot’ label applied to Central Bankers. Plus, they’re corrupt.

  3. There is a (buying) frenzy, but it is most definitely not a bubble…It’s a permanent, seismic shift’

    Click!

    Does anyone remember that land prices fell 60% over a year ago in Summit County?

    1. But…but…they’re not making any more land in Summit County. Suzanne’s research addressed this.

  4. ‘right now he has negative cash flow. ‘You say this is a rich country — it’s a joke,’ he says. ‘Everyone is struggling’

    You gotta get with the program PC. Yer priced out foreva if you don’t buy a cruise line stock, or something.

    I’ve had a lot of conversations about this moment in time. I can sum it up as being the most dishonest period I’ve ever experienced. Sure, we have a senile idiot in DC who couldn’t fill a phone booth at rallies, but he got more votes than any person in history! That’s a fudging lie.

    Oh we got the media. Have you heard? The CCP virus CAUSED this shack boom. That’s right, many millions lose their jobs, same with defaults. But damn, look at the red-hotcakes! We are bombarded with fear. We are told boys might be girls, and vicey versa. This is an evil country: but much of the world would move here in a heartbeat if they could.

    It doesn’t add up.

    1. That’s right, many millions lose their jobs, same with defaults. But damn, look at the red-hotcakes!

      This is not contradictory. Even at 20% unemployment, 80% of people still have a job, where they can work from home. Today I zillowed around some of the far-out towns in central Maryland, 90 minutes from DC or B-more, just to see what was out there. Half of the houses for sale have gone pending. Those 80% are hotcaking out the sticks, banking on 3 days/wk w@h.

      Maryland has no shortage of beautiful houses built during the height of the Great Depression.

    2. It doesn’t add up.

      It’s the billionaire globalists and their narratives. The politicians and media just deliver the message and institute the laws and regulations. As the wealth of these oligarch/globalists has grown, so has their rapacious greed and desire to control people and the direction of the world.

      What we have now is a group of virtue-signaling, mentally ill fvckfaces playing games with peoples’ lives. What we really need is a handful of guillotines and a couple long lines of these cvcks as they watch their brethrens’ heads spill off the cold steel. You do that for a few days and the world would quickly become more hospitable for the masses.

  5. ‘I tell Hoffman the idea of a West Hill fetching close to $3 million sounds astronomical. ‘A lot has to do with who’s buying them,’ he responds, suggesting we get away from thinking the traditional four-person family with $125,000 is the only kind of customer in the Toronto real estate market. ‘I’m on the frontlines and I see two families moving into a house like this,’ says Hoffman. ‘I see people buying a house and renting out the basement for $2000. I see a lot of gifted money. I’ve seen parents put $500,000 into their kid’s pocket for the down payment. There’s a lot of money out there’

    Take a look at this dump. But the lot is yuuuge! It comes down to the fact that 2 million Canadian pesos is a sh$t load of money.

    1. Unfortunately, the traditional four-person family will see their standard of living diluted when it comes time to bail-out these bankers and real estate fraudsters.

      1. Their standard of living is already been eroded due to the Fed’s relentless debasement of the currency.

    2. At the right time of day, you can get from West Hill to downtown Toronto in about 35 minutes. You can also get to a few less savoury hoods east and west of West Hill in under five minutes. West Hill is nice but there’s easily two dozen more prestigious neighborhoods in greater Toronto.

  6. CBS — When will COVID-19 end? A year into the pandemic, public health experts say: Never (3/12/2021):

    “public health experts say we do have an answer, and you’re not going to like it: COVID-19 is never going to end. It now seems poised to become an endemic disease — one that is always a part of our environment, no matter what we do.

    “We’ve been told that this virus will disappear. But it will not,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine and medical director of the National Foundation For Infectious Diseases, tells CBS News.

    Schaffner says it would be best to give up the idea of going “back to normal,” and instead settle in for the “new normal” where COVID continues shaping our lives.

    “The third, fourth and fifth years of COVID should not be anywhere close to as awful as the first one was,” he says. But in this new normal, “many of us will no longer be quite as carefree as we used to be.”

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-endemic-disease-never-going-away/

    Don’t forget to wear your mask while driving alone!

      1. Yesterday Cuomo told us there would be no more 14 day quarantine for domestic travelers arriving in NY. We all laughed. Nobody followed his stupid quarantine.

        1. Yeah, and now we find out he’s an abusive pervert like D’pedo. Jeebus these people have nerve to show their sorry faces.

          1. So far his accusers are all over the age of 18. I would not be surprised if there is a rape victim out there.

      2. Let’s call this thing what it really is:

        The Fractional Reserve Ponzi Failure Flu.

        1. “Let’s call this thing what it really is:”

          I prefer the…

          HTF are we going to get rid of Trump and shut down his supporters flu.

    2. CBS — When will COVID-19 end?

      Not until these globalist cvcks are destroyed. It should be called COVERT-19, because it’s a deep state operation of control and social engineering.

    3. “CBS — When will COVID-19 end? A year into the pandemic, public health experts say: Never (3/12/2021):”

      This must be part of Biden’s 12 minute stumbling teleprompter read the other night about how if everyone is really, really good and listens to the PTB (who at any minute could banish Rocky the flying squirrel and Bullwinkle because of not only their racism but also their ties to known Russian spies Boris and Natasha) we might, might mind you be able to cook some hotdogs on the grill by the 4th of July.

      Because our dear installed Leader would hate for us to go back to the dark days of the crisis which as near as I can tell never ended in states that have Governors like Eva Braun in Michigan.

      Get a load of this bi#ch

      Ezra Levant 🍁
      @ezralevant

      The UN’s top spin doctor in Canada, Theresa Tam, says even if you have been vaccinated you can’t visit family, you still have to social distance. You didn’t really think this was over, did you?

      https://twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1371120645006852096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1371120645006852096%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.infowars.com%2F

  7. Homeless Make Camp 15 Feet Away From Military Occupation Zone of U.S. Capitol

    by NewsColony13 March 2021

    New photos have emerged showing a homeless camp that has emerged only 15 feet away from the military occupied zone of Washington, D.C., created in the aftermath of the mostly peaceful Capitol Hill protests on January 6.
    David Hookstead, a reporter for The Daily Caller, posted two images of the military occupation zone, writing “Military lockdown is still upon us. Massive trucks everywhere, military members patrolling and razor sharp wire to keep people far away.”

    In a second post, Hookstead posted a photo of a homeless camp that has spawned near the military occupied zone.

    “Right across the street 15 feet away is a massive homeless camp with people doing drugs out in the open,” wrote Hookstead. “Our tax dollars at work. Citizens kept away from the Capitol using military force as homeless people overrun the neighborhoods doing drugs.”

    https://newscolony.com/homeless-drug-addicts-make-camp-15-feet-away-from-military-occupation-zone-of-u-s-capitol/

    1. That razor wire fence almost looks like um… some kind of illegitimate occupation government that stole an election.

      And it makes me wonder, what day is it today?

      Today is Sunday, March 14th and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

      1. Not a good day to be homeless down here in the South Denver suburbs.

        Come for the weed, stay for the hypothermia.

  9. “As Chris Kapches, CEO of my real estate brokerage Chestnut Park Real Estate said, what we are witnessing — in real time — is the ‘complete untethering of fair market value from the economic factors responsible for establishing fair market value. House prices have entirely detached from reality.’”

    Heckova job, central bankers.

  10. “‘There is a (buying) frenzy, but it is most definitely not a bubble,’ said broker Ned Walley. ‘It’s a permanent, seismic shift.’”

    Realtors are liars.

  11. ‘The outlandish aspect is not feeling like this is a bubble, not feeling like this is an unsustainable run-up on the market,’ Delehanty said.”

    “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
    — Yale economist Irving Fisher, September 1929

    1. “So, you know, they’re bolstering the stock market. Okay, there’s a floor to the stock market. Everybody knows it’s not going below a certain place. That’s okay.”

      ~Nancy Pelosi
      July, 2020

      1. What better words could encourage Millennial day traders to gamble their stimulus checks like drunken sailors on stonks and Bitcoin?

      2. “…Everybody knows…”

        Really?

        Guess I didn’t receive the memo.

        Never have and never will be one of the ‘Everybody’s’

    1. Would a multi-year mega-drought in the American southwest be bullish for housing?

      I guess it will serve as a rehearsal for Musk’s proposed Martian colony.

  13. “Double, double, toil and trouble; Fire burn, and cauldron bubble!” – William Shakespeare, Macbeth

    A weekend topic starting with Now Toronto. “A Scarborough bungalow is currently listed at $2.2 million, which is double the record-breaking average price for a home in the Greater Toronto real estate market. The selling agents says that price is not evidence that Canadians are sitting on a housing bubble, as one economist has recently said.”

    “There’s at least one person in Toronto who wouldn’t go for that proposition. Economist David Rosenberg told BNN Bloomberg that Canada might be experiencing ‘one of the biggest bubbles of all time’ and that he would ‘absolutely not’ invest in a home in the Greater Toronto real estate market.”

    The Toronto Sun. “As Chris Kapches, CEO of my real estate brokerage Chestnut Park Real Estate said, what we are witnessing — in real time — is the ‘complete untethering of fair market value from the economic factors responsible for establishing fair market value. House prices have entirely detached from reality.‘”

    “Interest rates so low that we now joke about money being essentially free. And prices rising so quickly as to produce panic among buyers, their fear of missing out so intense they’d rather overspend today to ensure they’re not priced-out tomorrow.”

    From Summit Daily in Colorado. “Summit County’s real estate market was robust before the pandemic hit, but lately, the market has skyrocketed. With the current climate of potential buyers outbidding one another — and even offering much more than asking price — some people are wondering: Is this another housing bubble, like the one that burst during the last recession?”

    “‘There is a (buying) frenzy, but it is most definitely not a bubble,’ said broker Ned Walley. ‘It’s a permanent, seismic shift.‘”

    From CBS in California. “As for how long the bidding wars will last, Michael Delehanty, a Real Estate Agent for Compass, says it doesn’t look like it will let up anytime in the next three to six months. ‘The outlandish aspect is not feeling like this is a bubble, not feeling like this is an unsustainable run-up on the market,’ Delehanty said.”

    – These are completely normal financial conditions. There are no bubbles. /s Nothing to see here. Move along.

    “It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.” – 1984 Opening line of novel, Part 1, Chapter 1.

    1. “…he would ‘absolutely not’ invest in a home in the Greater Toronto real estate market.”

      What risk asset class is not currently at a similar point of extreme overvaluation?

      1. The Biden admin is going to bring back malaise levels not seen since the Carter years (and far worse).

        Bidenville tents cities are going to pop up everywhere.

  16. so you have the textbook definition of high inflation in residential real estate. people are spending today because of fear that the currency won’t purchase nearly as much the next day/week/year. this is exactly how hyperinflation can begin. this is close to getting out of control. we will have hyperinflation and the government will say inflation is 4%. prices are way detached from incomes. so.. what is the feedback loop that ends this?

    1. And when can we expect this tripling and quadrupling of wages and salaries you speak of?

      1. Low salary increase haven’t slowed the r.e. inflation yet.
        At what point do they?
        And who thinks their 2k/month SS payment is going to buy much in 20 years?

      2. We didn’t have a tripling or quadrupling of wages and houses are more than 10x incomes. You don’t need wage inflation to start to experience hyperinflation.

          1. Of course it is. Inflation is described as a general rise in the price level of goods and services in the economy, of which houses are a part.

          2. Inflation is described

            Sure, by the central bank, which is run by liars and thieves. Prices is not expansion of the money supply (inflation).

          3. For Joe 6 Pack, all that matters is how much stuff costs vs. his paycheck. And if prices of “needs” goes up he’d better not count on getting a cost of living raise.

        2. rip agree with this. wage inflation is only one component of inflation, and is not necessary for your standard of living to get undermined.

      3. Here’s the American Heritage Dictionary definition of inflation:
        “A persistent increase in the level of consumer prices or a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money.”

        There is nothing in there about wage inflation – although to maintain purchasing power wages must go up. Wages haven’t gone up. There can be inflation with stagnant wages – leading to a lower standard of living.

      1. not sure that’s a feedback loop. that’s a voluntary behavior.

        clearly as long as people are able to spend money that they don’t have, this continues.

        the govt is all in on this policy. they will never voluntarily take away the punchbowl. what feedback loop is large enough to force the govt to do it?

        1. force the govt

          You’re talking about a bunch of thieves and enablers. They do not control the future. They can’t stop default and credit contraction. You’ll be happy if you’re not in the way.

        2. ‘what is the feedback loop that ends this?’

          “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
          Ludwig von Mises, Human Action [1949]

    3. “…what is the feedback loop that ends this?…”

      Here it is, only discussed on the HBB, *never* in the MSM:

      For R/E, the coup de gras will be holding costs (ie. property taxes, local taxes, HOA fees, insurance, maintenance, utilities, and the like).

      Exhibit A: Average Joe gets a loan for a $2mm home.

      Here in the OC, just property taxes will be about $25k/yr. Add all the rest and average Joe is going to have to come up with $50k/yr cash.

      And we haven’t even touched P&I on the $2mm loan.

      But here is the kicker:

      Average Joe is now expected to live like a kazillionaire with expensive cars, clothes and all the rest to fit into the neighborhood.

      Besides, Average Joe really believes in his own mind, that he *is* a kazillionaire.

      Average Joe is now at the mercy of Mr. Banker. It other words, a financial slave for life and possibly beyond the grave as his kids inherit not a home, but a bottomless pit.

      Average Joe’s arithmetic can’t possibly pencil out. Never has, never will.

      1. yes – that is one feedback loop that can (in some cases) slow real estate price appreciation. I see that with condos with high association fees, or homes in Chicagoland with 10k/yr property tax bills. There is always a reason when the price looks low by comparison (but the carrying costs are high). But so many inexplicable places where things are exploding up (sorry to the poster who always says re is cratering – it has not been cratering- cratering was 2006)

        1. ‘what is the feedback loop that ends this?’

          It will be the stock market crashing alot worse and longer than it did March 2020.

    4. we will have hyperinflation and the government will say inflation is 4%

      You can take that to the bank. $6 gas, rising utility and grocery bills will push many over the edge.

      1. Imagine those poor saps who bought Class A motorhomes as fuel rockets past $6 per gallon. The prices on those things are going to collapse.

        2. Why is gas so expensive, when oil is only $65?

          For the moment, I think it’s a supply and demand thing. The crushing Green New Steal taxes will come later.

    5. “so you have the textbook definition of high inflation in residential real estate. people are spending today because of fear that the currency won’t purchase nearly as much the next day/week/year.”

      https://finance.townhall.com/columnists/jimhuntzinger/2020/05/26/a-brief-history-of-the-definition-of-inflation-n2569459
      A Brief History Of The Definition Of Inflation
      Jim Huntzinger | Posted: May 26, 2020 11:11 AM

      “A reference by Michael Bryan, of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, discloses the history of the concept of inflation. A Federal Reserve Bulletin from 1919 defined inflation as “the process of making addition to currencies not based on a commensurate increase in the production of goods.”[1] Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. If currency and credit are stable, then all things being equal, prices should not increase, as discussed in The Federal Reserve has Failed and Inflation is Destructive, but are likely to fall due to productivity improvements. Additionally, it is expected that incomes will increase at the aggregate level across all levels of income. When price increases occur under these circumstances, it is the result of inflation driven by an interventive authority – government.“

      Bryan notes that “separating the price level from the money stock, the Keynesian revolution in economics appears to have separated the word inflation from a condition of money and redefined it as a description of prices.”

      – We have asset bubbles due to historically suppressed interest rates and cheap credit, but asset bubbles always pop (ref.: 2000, 2008).
      – CPI housing component is “Owners Equivalent Rent,” which is ridiculous and massively underreports housing inflation.
      – Hyperinflation? Possible someday, but we’ve had inflation since “Federal Reserve Notes” replaced sound money. Inflation is enabled by fiat currency and the e-printing press. Inflation will get worse, IMHO, since “stimmy” checks will impact on the real economy via the velocity of money (V).
      – Ultimately, all of this “stimmy” $ is probably be deflationary, since it inflates bubbles, but then they crash (ref. 2000, 2008).
      – Interesting times indeed. From bubble to bubble.

      1. first you say stimulus is inflationary (temporarily resulting in V) but then deflationary (after the pop). How is it not ultimately inflationary if for no other reason than the debasement of the currency?

        1. “How is it not ultimately inflationary if for no other reason than the debasement of the currency?”

          – I think someone posted a comment on this earlier, basically noting that wage growth is WAY behind inflation.
          – Unproductive debt stimulus, financed with printed $, aka debt monetization, creates malinvestment and overcapacity vs. productive debt and Cap. Ex. which creates productive capacity, productivity and jobs. This is deflationary.
          – Inflation is regressive and hurts lower income earners most. At some point (maybe like now?) it limits their spending, since wages aren’t anywhere near keeping up. Consumer spending is approx. 2/3 of economic activity. More economic slowdown, recession and deflation as unemployment rises.
          – Yes, increasing the money supply (M) along with (V) are inflationary. MV = PT. By the above definition in previous post, increasing M is always inflationary, but there are the other terms to consider.
          – Bottom line is intervening in markets is like the former USSR. Centrally planned, command and control economics can’t possibly work, since a national and global economy are too complex. Only free markets work. Excessive money printing has always failed. We haven’t learned anything from history.

    1. Ha I wish this was true.
      It’s more like a mania in Phoenix right now.
      But it was true 13 years ago. And probably will be again.

        2. well I should restate that

          I would love to get a great deal on a reasonably priced house in phoenix.

          but the devastation from when a bubble pops is nothing to cheer for.

          1. but the devastation from when a bubble pops is nothing to cheer for.

            There will be a world of hurt, that’s for sure. Even more unemployment, just for starters.

          2. Remember…As a noted economist stated so eloquently, “Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.”

            He’s right.

            Mount Pleasant, NC Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As Mortgage And Appraisal Fraud Intersects In The Rural South East

            https://www.movoto.com/mount-pleasant-nc/market-trends/

  21. Is there that much money laundering going on in Toronto to keep houses at ridiculous prices?

  22. Covid cases and deaths continue their downward trend in the US. By summer, it should be a distant memory.

    Then you have nutjobs like the New Zealanders, who lock down their whole country for a single case. Don’t they have faith in the experimental vaccines? Theirs is a horse and buggy economy. Their currency isn’t a reserve currency. They will soon be bankrupt and begging for foreign aid.

    1. whole country for a single case

      The joke is on them. The test isn’t specific to the CCP flu at all. What complete BS.

      1. How is their economy even functioning? The tourism money is gone. They claim that domestic tourism makes up for it. Yeah, right. Plus, how does domestic tourism work when everyone is in lockdown?

        They don’t make anything, they have no industry. Freaking Mexico makes over 3 million cars a year. New Zealand: 0. Are they supposed to be keeping their economy humming with just agricultural exports to China?

        1. New Zealand: 0
          I don’t get NZ either. I would think there economy would be Akin to Argentina only with better tourism due to it being a safer country. Maybe being so close to China
          and China’s need for additional food (especially after last year’s flooding) will save them.

          1. Even Argentina has industry. I knew a guy who lived in New Zealand for a while (quite some time ago) until he threw in the towel and came back. He said that finding non menial work was hard as rocks, and he had a degree in chemistry. I know a few other people who tried the New Zealand thing and gave up.

          2. Native New Zealanders try the New Zealand thing and give up. They go to Australia or the US for economic opportunity. There’s nothing in New Zealand for people who want to do well for themselves.

        2. Are they supposed to be keeping their economy humming with just agricultural exports to China?

          Being the preferred “bolt hole,” I’d guess globalist slush money courtesy of US taxpayers (e.g., USAID).

  23. So long as central bankers are in the price control business, how about tasking them with keeping a lid on housing prices?

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion New Zealand
      By targeting house prices, New Zealand shows the way
      Just as it led on inflation, the country has launched a novel attack on rising asset prices
      Ruchir Sharma
      Jacinda Ardern walks to the parliamentary debating chamber. The prime minister has shown she is willing to try novel strategies
      Ruchir Sharma 17 hours ago
      The writer, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s chief global strategist, is author of ‘The Ten Rules of Successful Nations’

      Those Kiwi revolutionaries are at it again. In 1989, New Zealand’s central bank was the first to commit to a specific target for consumer price inflation, then the biggest threat to the world economy. Unions and businesses howled, saying the move would kill growth and jobs. One property developer called for a rope on which to hang central bank chief Donald Brash.

      Brash, a former fruit farmer who had seen his uncle’s life savings destroyed by inflation, held firm. By signalling the bank’s seriousness, the target helped to lower the public’s self-fulfilling expectation of endless price rises. Over two years, inflation fell from 8 to 2 per cent. The unpopular idea caught on. Soon, most central banks had adopted targets and this helped tame the global scourge of runaway prices for food, fuel and other consumer staples.

      Today, a new scourge — asset price inflation — looms. And New Zealand has launched another counterattack. While consumer prices have been held in check by globalisation and automation, easy money pouring out of central banks has been driving up the price of assets from stocks to bonds and housing. As homes are generally not counted as consumer goods, even sharp price spikes carry relatively little weight in central bank deliberations.

      Home prices have risen steadily in the pandemic, and in 12 months through to the end of January were up 19 per cent in New Zealand. The price of a typical Auckland home soared past $720,000, embarrassing Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

      A global political celebrity, the liberal Ardern was elected on a promise of affordable housing. Fed up, her government has ordered the central bank to add stabilising home prices to its remit, starting March 1. It is novel and healthy for a politician to recognise the unintended consequences of easy money.

      If this idea catches on, it could lead to greater financial and social stability worldwide. Decades of loose central bank policy have done less to generate growth in the real economy than in the financial markets — and those gains benefit mainly the rich.
      …

        1. At least she admitted to several weeks of sustained propaganda at a time when uncertainty prevailed. That’s more refreshing than Governor Cuomo.

      3. In the US, the central bank existed long before it received it’s “dual mandates” in 1977: https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2011/eb_11-12

        Before then, the job of the Fed was to provide financing to the US government and to protect the financial system, which I generally interpret to mean protecting the Wall Street infrastructure, which involves protecting the companies.

        High asset prices benefit just about everyone in the Fed’s purview: it’s safe to say virtually all the Wall Streeters and politicians own houses and financial assets. Through that lens, it makes sense they would exclude asset prices from any inflation calculation (even though of course, shelter is a necessity, while stock ownership is not). I’m assuming New Zealand is the same way – what’s the purpose of a central bank other than this?

        In the US, the PTB are making noises that skyrocketing house prices are undesirable. Black Knight’s head of market research actually lauds a slight increase in interest rates, saying it could cool down the market: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/video/archive/2021/2/22.aspx#968201

        That’s an interesting data point. This week’s Fed meeting will be interesting. I’m a little unclear why they would be concerned with rising asset prices. Politicians are being re-elected. I know populism created a little bit of concern but that seems to have receded. House sales are up by single digits YOY all over the country but inventory is way down by 50pct nationally: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR – in line with the 1995-2005 period though. Maybe they are concerned with income inequality? But if challenges to the status quo are receding, why though? I’ve always thought they will only stop this current regime if they have to. Will the covid bounce be that force? Due to inflation? I dunno.

        I think the government + Fed could monetize the government debt market similar to Japan, but is that possible in an inflationary environment?

        The Black Knight gentleman said people are having trouble finding something to buy. But that’s not compatible with sales being up YOY – obviously lots of people are finding things to buy. We’re heading into a somewhat inflationary environment per conventional wisdom. Because the market is moving so fast, it could just be that many realtors are being squeezed, with a few large, successful brokerages getting the majority of sales, but perhaps the majority of realtors feeling squeezed?

        Also, the GSEs are going to limit 2nd home / investment home purchases (put in place during the previous admin, implemented now, interestingly): https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fannie-mae-tightens-standards-on-investment-properties/

        Lot of apparently dissonant information. I don’t have the right lens yet to view it through, where everything can be explained.

        Don’t think politicians are any less self interested or have changed their tune. A few years ago, Elizabeth Warren, purportedly a champion of the regular joe, had an opportunity to speak out about what’s causing high education costs (which are also in a bubble due to government pumping cash into the system, using students as pass-through entities to enrich higher education institutions). Instead of dealing with the elephant in the room root cause, she lamely touted she was for lower interest rates on student loans. She’s a college professor with a specific interest in finance. She’s smart and she understands the financial plumbing. However, she also knows what side her bread is buttered on. That episode was informative.

        So, coming back around to house prices, they’re very sensitive to interest rates. I’m still unclear why anyone in PTB would be inclined to limit their rise. Don’t forget property taxes as well which benefits local governments, which influence state governments which influence the federal.

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