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Buyers Are Throwing Out These Ridiculous Offers And They’re Getting Uncomfortable

A report from WACH on South Carolina. “If you’re looking to buy or sell a house, it’s boom time. ‘Interest rates are at an all-time low. Banks are pretty much giving free money away. Buyers are seeing that and it doesn’t matter what monetary background you’re coming from whether you make $50,000 a year or $200,000 a year,’ said realtor Enoch Walters.”

The Gainesville Sun in Florida. “Developers also are noticing the hot housing trend. Subdivisions are springing up throughout the area, particularly in Flowery Branch, where houses are being built at a furious pace. ‘Right now is when you look to your friends and your family and … people in the grocery store and say, ‘Do you want to sell?’ said Beverly Filson, a Realtor with The Norton Agency in Gainesville.”

From WKRN on Tennessee. “The housing market madness continues. It’s fueled what you could call ‘buying frenzy,’ with multiple bidding wars and it’s forcing people to make decisions in a hurry, leading to buyers’ remorse. According to a Flyhomes survey, American homebuyers are still getting caught up in the current climate with one in four experiencing buyers’ remorse. Some surveyed didn’t approve of the price they paid, while others didn’t like the size and/or location.”

“‘The main thing we can do right now in any hot market is breathe,’ said Brian Copeland, President of Greater Nashville Realtors. ‘You do the best you can do with your finances. Write a letter; do what you have to do to set yourself apart, but at the end of the day it’s out of your control.'”

From Pallet Enterprise. “Boom, Boom, Boom! Millennials are hitting the housing market driving up demand at a time that inventory is at a low point. The housing market is enjoying a boom time, and home values are soaring, too. U.S. housing gained $2.5 trillion in value last year, according to Zillow, an Internet realtor service. That’s the biggest jump since 2005. Mortgage lenders made a record $4.4 trillion in home loans in 2020; the biggest lender, Quicken Loans, issued $1 billion of loans per day.”

“Think of it this way. The 2008 crisis forced Millennials to delay their acclimation into adulthood. It disrupted the normal flow of the next generation starting out in life. Many of them are not buying ‘starter’ homes, either; their first home is on the upper end of the market, price-wise. ‘Millennials are finally coming out of the gate,’ reported luxury realtor Sotheby’s. ‘It’s not uncommon for their first purchase to be a multimillion-dollar luxury home.'”

From KTVN on Nevada. “Housing prices in the Reno-Sparks area remain at near-record highs. The market is still flooded with out-of-town buyers. ‘California is number one, Bay Area buyers with their cash,’ said Kayla Dalton, a Realtor with Dickson Realty. These bidding wars mean that the cancellation rate is also very high right now. ‘The cancellation rate is so high because these buyers are throwing out these ridiculous offers just to land something, and then they’re reviewing what their finances are, they’re reviewing the payment structure, and they’re getting uncomfortable,’ Dalton said. ‘So then they’re canceling transactions.'”

From Socket Site in California. “With the number of single-family homes and condos that were newly listed for sale in San Francisco over the past week having outpaced the number of new purchase contracts that were written, the number of homes on the market across the city ticked up a (1) percent to 940. That’s 140 percent more inventory than there was on the market at the same time last year. But that’s also the most end-of-March inventory on the market in San Francisco since 2011 and 130 percent more inventory on the market than there was at this time of the year in 2015.”

“The average list price per square foot of said homes ticked down nearly 3 percent to around $950 per square foot, which is 2 percent lower than at the same time last year (and over 8 percent below the average list price per square foot of the homes which remain on the market, 20 percent of which have been reduced at least once).”

From Portland Monthly in Oregon. “This past fall, after more than a decade of condominium living in Portland’s Pearl District, Jill McAlpine’s bid on a house near Washington Park was accepted. But she didn’t put her condo, where she’d lived for more than a decade, on the market. Knowing the condo market had been sluggish lately, with inventory priced to sell, she put it up for rent instead. ‘It doesn’t feel like a good business decision right now,’ she says of selling.”

“Condo market sales, particularly in areas like downtown and the Pearl, had a slowdown in 2019. But over the past year, with inventory in all categories tight across the board in Portland, condo sales might be picking up a bit—just at price levels not seen since the mid 20-teens. ‘There were more sales in South Waterfront [in 2020] than there were [in 2019],’ says Sean Z. Becker, owner and broker of Sean Z. Becker Real Estate. But prices per square foot dropped 7 percent between March and September of 2020, he says, rolling back about five years of price increases.”

“In the Pearl, condo prices dropped more than 10 percent, back to their 2014 value, says Judie Dunken, broker and owner of Judie Dunken Real Estate.”

From I Love The Upper West Side in New York. “The owner of a nine-unit Upper West Side building was forcibly removed from the property after losing a foreclosure case which began in 2019, Commercial Observer reports. Kim Mortimer is now the former owner of 60 West 91st Street, where she was also a tenant. After defaulting on her loan, she reportedly allowed the building to fall into disrepair. She borrowed $1.7 million from her lender in 2016. After late fees, penalties and interest, she ended up owing $3.4 million.”

“Mortimer filed two actions to prevent her removal, based on the eviction moratorium created during the pandemic. The case ended up back in court, and the judge again ruled to have Mortimer removed. As Mortimer refused, the judge had US Marshalls forcibly remove her. After a recent bankruptcy sale of the building, Mortimer was able to pay back $2.1 out of the $3.4 million she owed to her lender.”

From My Northwest. “Many may remember Washington Mutual Savings Bank, at one point operating as the nation’s largest thrift institution. It was built up by former CEO Kerry Killinger, and then in 2008 during the now-infamous housing crash, it was seized by the feds on grounds that it was insolvent. Except when looking at Killinger’s new book Nothing Is Too Big to Fail, he argues the bank was stolen.”

“‘We think the feds are once again taking us down a position of severe risks in the economy for a potential another bursting of bubbles like the stock market and housing and the like. And we figured that the only way they’re going to learn so they don’t repeat some of those same mistakes is to get a lot of those true facts out there,’ he told Seattle’s Morning News with Ross.”

“‘Let me just give a couple of very quick factoids similar to today where we see risk of a housing bubble,’ he continued. ‘We started warning the feds, the Federal Reserve, the major regulators, our shareholders, and everybody else about four years before the financial crisis, that housing prices were getting too high and that we were in for some form of correction,’ he said.”

“Did we at least learn a lesson from it such that it won’t happen again? ‘I think the lessons learned from this is that whenever we get in these periods of encouraging asset bubbles like the Fed did leading up to the last financial crisis, they kept interest rates below the rate of inflation for an extended period of time. And guess what? Housing prices rose at an unrealistic level,’ he said. ‘I’m hoping we have learned from that because that’s exactly what we’re seeing again today.'”

From The Real Deal. “Compass’ hotly anticipated IPO is finally (almost) here. The venture capital-backed residential firm is set to go public in the coming days, after federal regulators on Monday approved its initial public offering, SEC filings show. Founded in 2012 by Robert Reffkin and Ori Allon, Compass jolted the brokerage industry by raising $1.5 billion from investors, including SoftBank, and aggressively hiring top agents from competitors. It later scooped up firms wholesale in an unprecedented growth spurt.”

“Ahead of its stock market debut, Compass indicated it would seek a $10 billion valuation — testing, once and for all, whether investors believe it’s a tech company or simply a gussied-up residential brokerage. In a March 29 research note, investment firm New Constructs argued the latter. ‘Currently, the company looks more like a traditional brokerage with flashy marketing, whose only advantage is a virtually unlimited ability to burn cash,’ wrote David Trainer, the firm’s founder. ‘SoftBank needs this IPO more than investors do.'”

“Compass could raise nearly $1 billion in its IPO, and that cash would fuel its continued growth. The firm’s revenue more than doubled to $2.4 billion in 2019. Last year, boosted by the hot U.S. housing market, it raked in $3.7 billion. But Compass isn’t profitable, and its S-1 revealed $1 billion in cumulative losses.”

This Post Has 153 Comments
  1. Eat yer crowz Thornberg…

    Oh yeah baby, it’s hot hot HOT! Except:

    ‘Compass isn’t profitable, and its S-1 revealed $1 billion in cumulative losses’

    And these idiot ibuyers will take another a$$ pounding grand today – flipping shacks into the supposed red-hotcakes. Somebody is a lion.

    1. Beacon Isn’t Forecasting a Recession Yet
      The latest forecast from Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics predicts a bad quarter, but not necessarily a recession.
      By Kelsi Maree Borland | March 24, 2020 at 04:00 AM
      Irvine, CA

      There have been a lot of predictions about the severity of economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic, and most are pretty abysmal, from record GDP loss in the second quarter to predictions of double-digit unemployment. However, the latest forecast from Beacon Economics sheds a more positive light on the recent economic events, predicting a bad quarter but not necessarily a recession.

      “We can quibble for hours over the definition of what a recession is,” Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics, tells GlobeSt.com. “For me, a recession is a protracted period of weak economic growth. While I think this is going to be really jarring and the second quarter is going to be ugly, I think that it is reasonable to expect a bounce back in the third quarter. I think that is completely reasonable to assume.”

      1. And how did that rosy recovery forecast turn out?

        Wounded by both a pandemic and recession, millennials are reliving the history of 100 years ago
        Hillary Hoffower
        Mar 14, 2021, 5:55 AM
        Older millennials bore the brunt of the Great Recession, while younger millennials were hit hard by the pandemic.
        Jared Siskin/Getty Images

        – Millennials are defined by the Great Recession and the coronavirus pandemic, says gen expert Neil Howe.
        – It’s a repeat of the GI Generation, who came of age during the Spanish Flu and Great Depression.
        – The pandemic and economic crash defined older and younger cohorts of both generations, but in reverse.

        Millennials have lived through two recessions before the age of 40, the scars of which have accentuated an intra-generational divide.

        “The Great Recession hit the early wave of millennials,” Neil Howe, the economist, historian, and demographer who coined the term “millennial,” told Insider. “The pandemic recession is squarely impacting the late wave of the millennial generation.”

      2. For me, a recession is a protracted period of weak economic growth

        Actually a recession is contraction, not growth.

        Thinking is hard.

  2. ‘Right now is when you look to your friends and your family and … people in the grocery store and say, ‘Do you want to sell?’

    Happens to me all the time at the Piggly Wiggly. I’ll be looking at cucumbers and a UHS will grab me by the collar and yell, let me list yer shack Ben, please!

    1. Ditto. Getting emails from local Realtors who want to be my ‘friend’ by listing my home. You can really sense the desperation from this gang of gangsters.

      1. Luckily the realtors don’t seem to have my email. But I’ve noticed an uptick in the mailings, both from realtors and banks wanting me to refi.

        A couple of those rates looked pretty tempting, so I did a few calculations. [Mr. Banker, avert your eyes…] Turns out that my current payment plan of paying extra on principle is overall cheaper than any of the refis. That’s mostly because (1) I’ve already knocked out a lot of future interest by paying extra early on in the amortization (2) I refuse to restart the 30-year clock.

        1. I get sporadic mail solicitations, but that is pretty much it.

          I was 8 years or so into a 30 yr, and refi’d to a 15 at 2.4%. Took 7 years off the mortgage and the payment barely changed.

          FYI – you don’t have to be a Costco member to use their pharmacy.

          1. Thanks, ibbots. J&J ruined some doses. 🙄 But they are promising 24 million by the end of April, and 100 million by the end of May. By then, enough of the US population will be vaxxed that I could likely walk into any clinic to get a J&J. So, I expect to be free right around that June 30 date.

          2. I’m free right now. Not worried about the sniffles in the least. Nice to know Big Pharma has cured the cold.

        2. “…(2) I refuse to restart the 30-year clock….”

          I am sure when Mr. Banker reads this he will agree: Getting loan owners to constantly restart the 30 year clock is Mr. Banker dream come true.

          1. Actually the bankers are expecting the “cash-out refi’s” to stimulate the economy while the government spends its reserves in the middle-east keeping the Persians hemmed in tight to protect our friends. The “cash-out refi’s” are a national accounting trick, and they [are] the economy in places like greater Los Angeles.

          2. I read comments online which indicate that the home reno industry is on fire. Basement redos are especially popular as people find more room in the existing footprint. It’s w@h pandemic thinking: people want multiple home offices, home schooling rooms, mother-in-law suites, basements to rent out, or just plain kitchen and bath renos, either to enjoy or sell. This must be funded by cash-outs, because these kinds of renos are not cheap. Even one of my high-pay bosses casually mentioned that he did a refi to reno his house.

        3. We get the occasional Realtor solicitation. Nothing gives me more pleasure than to inform them that we are renters.

  3. ‘We started warning the feds, the Federal Reserve, the major regulators, our shareholders, and everybody else about four years before the financial crisis, that housing prices were getting too high and that we were in for some form of correction’

    This is an interesting interview for those who like mania history.

    1. Washington Mutual
      They bought the company I was working for in 2001 and for 6 months they paid me to do next to nothing. No access to their systems for peons at my level, the former company systems were not being used after the merger, so nothing to do. I came in late, took a long lunch and left early for 6 months staying because of the lucrative severance package. Some people brought in TV’s and we watched 9/11 happen at work.

      1. “…we watched 9/11 happen at work.”

        Back then I had my family members trained to sleep when I practiced the violin at 6:30am., which I was doing when my MIL called to tell me about the attack.

        You know something is really wrong when your MIL calls you at 6:30am.

  4. ‘Millennials are finally coming out of the gate,’ reported luxury realtor Sotheby’s. ‘It’s not uncommon for their first purchase to be a multimillion-dollar luxury home’

    Like the vast majority of the media, these people lie so much you can’t trust anything they say. This statement hardly seems possible.

    1. But are they buying ‘starter’ homes or luxury homes as indicated by the above quote.


      A new wave of young homeowners jumped into the market in 2019. Even more jumped in during 2020, with the rate of home ownership for Americans under age 35 ending the year at 40%.

      They were absent for a decade, but now Millennials make up the largest share of home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors. DR Horton, the nation’s largest homebuilder, reports that over 40% of its buyers are under age 34.

    2. Not uncommon translation: “There were really only a handful of these but I remember them more vividly because I made sweet commi$$ions on them.” So, there were some, but not as many as they say.

      I think we had a thread on this a few days ago. These luxe buyers are ALL drawing on the bank of Mom and Dad, i.e. spending their inheritance early. Now watch 15 years from now as the elderly parents can’t take care of themselves because they spent their old-age money on the luxe house for the precious angels. And then watch those same precious angels turn their backs on them and then bitterly fight over what’s left.

      1. ok this makes sense for some situations.

        A $100K downpayment is saving $8-10K a year for 10 years. Mom and Dad just to cash out refi the $100K or HELOC it – and magic happens. So much sweet appreciation and an extra 10 years – assuming that you dont buy at a bubble peak 🙁

    3. Us Millennials are sometimes strapped with massive student loans that require government forgiveness, other times we are getting million dollar mortgages with “free money”.

      We also apparently don’t have access to $1,000 in an emergency.

      1. The ones who got their MBA’s at Ivy league schools and landed sweet gigs on Wall St can afford the mega buck houses. The ones who majored in victim’s studies at Podunk State U aren’t paying the rent.

        Three guesses as to which group is much bigger.

    1. The Financial Times
      US Treasury bonds
      Long-term US government bonds endure worst quarterly fall since 1980
      Investors brace for ‘bumpy’ ride as stimulus programmes boost economic outlook
      The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is just shy of a 14-month high of 1.78%
      Colby Smith in New York an hour ago

      The $21tn US government bond market is in for a “bumpy” ride, investors warn, after a tumultuous quarter marked by the worst performance for long-dated Treasuries in more than four decades.

      US borrowing costs have jumped since the start of 2021 as a brightening economic outlook, amplified by the Biden administration’s $1.9tn stimulus programme, has dented the allure of Treasuries.

      As economists have rushed to revise higher their growth and inflation forecasts — in some cases to such an extent that some believe the Federal Reserve could begin tightening the screws on its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner than expected — the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has shot higher. Having hovered around 0.9 per cent in early January, it is now just shy of a 14-month peak of 1.78 per cent.

      Most strategists had braced for rising yields this year as the economy began to grow again, but the velocity and scale of the retreat jarred even veteran market watchers and have since sparked jitters about the coming months for Treasuries.

      “All of us have been caught out,” said Steven Major, global head of fixed income research at HSBC, who has had a longstanding bullish view on bonds. “I suspect [the second quarter] is going to be bumpy.”

    2. Bloomberg Wealth
      Mortgage Rate Increase Hits Lenders as Refinancing Surge Fizzles
      By Prashant Gopal
      and Shahien Nasiripour
      March 30, 2021, 7:04 AM PDT
      – The phones are going quiet for many home-loan brokers
      – Thirty-year fixed mortgage is at highest level in 9 months

      After riding the $3 trillion refinancing wave to its best year ever in 2020, U.S. mortgage lenders have hit a snag: rising rates.

      For Thuan Nguyen, a mortgage broker at Loan Factory in San Jose, California, it’s humbling. He sold about $2 billion in mortgages last year — more than any industry sales person in at least a decade, by one ranking. Now the phones are going quiet.

      “I expected the good times would continue,” said Nguyen, 48, who quadrupled his staff and expanded to almost 20 states last year. “Rates went up and all refinance almost disappeared. Everybody got shocked.”

      1. I’d love hear comments about this story from yesterday’s posters who insisted, “the PTB won’t let interest rates go up.”

        1. you are perhaps correct – but here is my (maybe incorrect) reasoning.

          The Fed has $2.2T worth of MBS – they absolutely cannot have a significant mark-to-market reduction on their balance sheet.

          30 yr has increased to 3.2%. It can increase a bit – but if it hits 5% or 6%, the (current state of) housing market will be trashed – what happens to the MBS’es at this point

          1. How is anyone harmed by changes in the value of what’s on the Fed’s balance sheet? I take it that the folks working there will still get paid, and they don’t personally own the assets on their balance sheet.

            I must be missing why a drop in the value of the MBS they hold would matter so much…

          2. I agree. This is typical volatility, not a sea change. I don’t expect a sea change at least until fall, if then.

          3. While maintaining stability (lower inflation and higher employment) central banks are not supposed to mitigate risk (see below). When buying MBS’es, does the Fed currently take a haircut – or are they buying these on the open market.

            https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_riskmanagement.htm

            The Federal Reserve’s lending programs potentially expose the Federal Reserve to credit risk–the risk that a borrower will not repay a loan. The Federal Reserve mitigates credit risk by requiring collateral for all loans and by monitoring the financial condition of depository institutions and other entities that borrow or may borrow from the Federal Reserve.

            All extensions of credit by the Federal Reserve must be secured to the satisfaction of the lending Reserve Bank by acceptable collateral. Assets accepted as collateral are assigned a lendable value deemed appropriate by the Reserve Bank; lendable value is determined as the market price of the asset less a haircut or, when a market price is not available, an internally modeled fair market value estimate less a haircut. Haircuts reflect credit risk and, for traded assets, the historical volatility of the asset’s price and the liquidity or illiquidity of the market in which the asset is traded; the Federal Reserve’s haircuts are generally in line with typical market practice. The Federal Reserve applies larger haircuts, and thus assigns lower lendable values, to assets for which no market price is available than to comparable assets for which a market price is available.

          4. “This is typical volatility, not a sea change. I don’t expect a sea change at least until fall, if then.”

            A doubling of yields in two months is ‘typical volatility’?

            Hmmm…

            The Financial Times
            Opinion Inside Business
            Pension funds pay the price for bond market distortions
            Interest rate moves raise questions about how scheme liabilities should be calculated
            John Plender
            A fall in interest rates has boosted the value of tech stocks like Apple but hit pension funds
            March 27, 2021

            The recent fall in bond prices and consequent rise in yields will come as a boon to deficit-prone pension funds.

            Future pension obligations are discounted by a rate derived from bond market yields. A rise in the discount rate shrinks those liabilities, and deficits also shrink in the absence of a material fall in the value of the fund’s assets.

            The other big beneficiaries of the rise in bond yields are value investors. They have been bruised for years thanks to their lack of exposure to the big tech stocks that have driven equity markets to heady levels.

            Discount rates played an important part in the tech stocks’ rise because the long decline in bond yields caused the net present value of the tech companies’ strong future cash flows to balloon.

            Bill Gross, co-founder of the Pimco fund management group, has estimated that a drop of 1.5 to 2 percentage points in real long-term interest rates can boost the price of Apple or Amazon by as much as 50 per cent, other things being equal.

            With interest rates now rising, the discounting logic goes into reverse, shrinking the net present value of the growth companies’ future cash flows. But the adverse impact of the rate rise for value stocks is offset by enhanced earnings prospects from the reopening and recovery of pandemic-hit economies.

            Yet there is a tricky question to be asked as to whether the values thrown up by discounting at historically freakishly low interest rates make much sense. They are the product of a market that has been systematically rigged by central banks whose balance sheets have been stuffed with a multitude of government IOUs since the global financial crisis.

            Today’s long-term gilt yield of 1.2 per cent compares with yields that ranged from just over 2 per cent to 6 per cent in the two and a half centuries before the financial crisis, according to A History of Interest Rates by Sidney Homer and Richard Sylla.

            And in the parts of the global bond market where negative yields prevail, the concept of the time value of money borders on the perverse since the present value of today’s pension liabilities is greater than their value in the future.

            The winners from ultra-loose monetary policy have been asset owners including, conspicuously, homeowners. But their gains have come at a political cost. The resulting wealth inequality has fed a populist backlash across the developed world.

            This year’s rise in bond yields is an early warning of trouble to come. The exit from unconventional central bank measures will be infinitely harder than the entry because policy rates cannot be raised to address any looming inflationary threat without inflicting serious financial instability along with economic recession, or worse.

            Central banks will now be under increasing political pressure to keep government borrowing costs low by extending their bond buying into longer durations and keeping interest rates from rising above a given target — yield curve control, in the jargon. That would point to more bubbles and, as long as actuaries and pensions regulators slavishly adhere to distorted “market” benchmarked discount rates, to continuing inflated valuations of pension fund liabilities.

          5. “Yet there is a tricky question to be asked as to whether the values thrown up by discounting at historically freakishly low interest rates make much sense. They are the product of a market that has been systematically rigged by central banks whose balance sheets have been stuffed with a multitude of government IOUs since the global financial crisis.”

            Putting on my former actuary hat, I can assure you that current pension liabilities are ridiculously high if calculated using traditional discount rate metrics, which are based on the long-term U.S. Treasury yield.

          6. Seeing more stories lately about “living well” into your nineties, so those millennials better get used to pulling ever harder on the economic oars!

          7. Why not? The fed is the market. FASB 157 suspended means banks don’t have to mark to market.

            So…. explain your thinking please

        2. “the PTB won’t let interest rates go up.”

          The new PTB seem so stupid they don’t know what interest rates rising actually means yet

          1. Nor do they acknowledge that it is the bond market, not central bankers, who determine interest rates.

          2. Nor do they acknowledge that it is the bond market, not central bankers, who determine interest rates.

            As long as there is no hyperinflation, I think the bond market is a horse being led by a bit. The central banker is the leader. If the horse becomes terrorized – fears of hyperinflation for example – I think then the superior size and power of the horse may allow it to break free or drag the rider.

            As long as you can promise the bond market participants that you won’t allow them to take large losses and will do everything you can to help them make profits, that goes a long way in controlling them.

            Think of Japan’s central bank buying equities. It tipped its hand it that it doesn’t want stonks to drop. As long as they don’t break the currency or push the system beyond its operational envelope in some other way, the same sort of thing applies.

  5. So many people will look back with disgust at this time period. People are literally going to lock in a high price and regret it much like 2005-2007.

    1. I assume that nobody is putting a gun to anybody’s head and forcing home buyers in middle Tennessee to throw out ridiculous offers in multiple bidding wars.

      I can recall plenty of stories like this from California in the runup to the big 2008 housing crash, but the situation seems far more pervasive this time around. Plus we reportedly are in a deep recession. Something is wrong with this picture.

      1. ‘Something is wrong with this picture.’ Human beings are notoriously bad at seeing cycle turning points. They extrapolate the trends into infinity and beyond, especially when peer pressure enters the picture. Professional poker players excepted.

  6. “Like many other cities around the country, Oakland, Calif., has launched a pilot program of Universal Basic Income (UBI) geared towards helping the city’s lowest income residents. But unlike other pilot programs, Oakland’s UBI program is also attempting to reduce the racial wealth gap, and will be the first to make race a qualification of the program.

    Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf told Yahoo Finance that Oakland’s approach is one of “equity.”

    1. first to make race a qualification of the program.
      From what I understand Hispanics, Asians, and Caucasians are not eligible. I know private money paying this but utilizing Oakland resources makes me think this can’t be legal. Four or five years ago I would have said there is no way in hell this could EVER happen but…….

    2. This will look like it’s going to work, but in the end it won’t.

      Remember when women entered the professional workforce. The first couples who did it in the early 80s really made bank, because they had two incomes in a society still priced for one income. As time went on, prices on housing, cars, college, food etc soaked up that extra income. Now two incomes are the norm.

      Same in Oakland. Those few lucky families who get the UBI will make a little bank because they have a UBI in a society priced for no UBI. Oh, they’ll do well, and we’ll all celebrate racial harmony. But once everybody gets a UBI, the only thing we’ll see is inflation.

    3. But unlike other pilot programs, Oakland’s UBI program is also attempting to reduce the racial wealth gap, and will be the first to make race a qualification of the program.

      Universal … that word doesn’t mean what they think it means.

  7. Could I buy a mortgage without a property? Make payments on it and then apply it to something in about 2 years? 🙂

    1. Technically yes. Invest in a brokerage account with an annual return of more than 3%. When you buy, withdraw the $$ and use it for the down payment. If you can get 5% return, that will cancel out any taxes you might have to pay on the returns.

      1. “Invest in a brokerage account with an annual return of more than 3%.”

        Can you get a guaranteed 3%+ return?

  8. Tales of bidding wars all around the U.S. with multiple ridiculous offers suggests the housing market has reached a disorderly state of mania.

    Is this considered a desirable state of affairs? Who owns responsibility for containing a mania?

    1. disorderly state of mania
      14004 Painted Desert Rd, Poway, CA 92064
      4/1/2021 Listed for sale $1,675,000 $667/sqft
      3/29/2021 Listing removed $1,675,000 $667/sqft
      3/24/2021 Price change $1,675,000 (-1.5%) $667/sqft
      3/18/2021 Listed for sale $1,700,000 (+44.7%) $677/sqft
      2/28/2019 Sold $1,175,000 (+2.3%) $468/sqft

      1. AFAICT, the Millennial grey paint is the only thing that’s changed since the previous listing.

        1. All of the interior cabinetry is too dark, IMHO. Incredible backyard, BBQ gazebo and pool. I like the corner lot, which gives more access to the property from the street.

          1. Interesting, because that darker cabinetry was all the rage in 2007. Then it was all about white kitchens, a la Joanna Gaines. Now light wood is coming back in.

            I really dislike that gray paint. There’s a place for gray, but not in ANY house with any kind of woodwork. My neighborhood is notorious for it. Hardwood flooring and gray paint is like gravel in the eyeballs.

      2. And even if this shack sells below 2019 price, it doesn’t matter. The low end market has been decimated by the unlawful lockdowns so even if only high end houses are selling, at big discounts, the median prices will still go up. SO you have the dishonest REIC saying to the moon, and all the young and first time buyers rushing in because of FOMO and greatly overpay for shacks.

        1. And even if this shack sells below 2019 price

          It won’t sell below the 2019 price but the asking price is beyond ridiculous.

        2. Please tell me White Kitchens are going away. I gambled on light wood cabs hoping they’d come back in style.

          1. They are. Lots of interior designers are posting videos of “Kitchen Trends 2021” or “Design Trends that are Going Out of Style” and the general consensus is that:

            Third most hated trend: white farmhouse kitchen.
            Second most hated trend: shiplap and barn doors
            Most hated trend: Word are wall decor like “EAT” Gather” “Live Laugh Love”

            There will always be white kitchens, but they aren’t a necessity any longer.

          2. There will always be white kitchens

            15825 Bent Tree Rd, Poway, CA, 92064

            I saw this one in person the last two times it was on the market: pre and post remodel. The remodel was well done. The tilework was so superb I made a mental note of the company that did the work. This one is also priced well at $1,599,000.

          3. What’s with all the 120-degree angles? I got lost just flipping through the pix. Nor do I understand why bedrooms have sliding doors. I’d feel kind of exposed. Kitchen is oddly placed.

          4. The house was originally a 2,258sf 3BD/2BA. There was an addition before the remodel that I saw before and after.

          5. why bedrooms have sliding doors

            It’s part of the indoor/outdoor ranch home aesthetic. In our 2,400sf rental, we have the master bedroom blinds drawn 24/7. That corner of the house is very exposed to the neighbor and gardeners.

      3. “Zestimate: $1,414,957”

        They are trying for a Dutch auction sale — start at an above market list price and gradually lower it until an offer is received — not a bad strategy in a steadily rising market.

        However, giving the backdrop of rising mortgage rates, unless they accelerate their rate of asking price reductions, they face a risk of missing the bubble peak and chasing the market down…which would be hilarious!

    2. There is actually nothing in my local NE market for sale. Stuff disappears in an instant. This is the final nail in the global debtors prison coffin.

  9. Longtime posters may recall Alan Greenspan lightly tapping on the interest rate brake pedal in 2006. It will be interesting to see how far the current mortgage lending drunk fest will go before anyone tries to intervene.

  10. “Housing prices in the Reno-Sparks area remain at near-record highs. The market is still flooded with out-of-town buyers. ‘California is number one, Bay Area buyers with their cash,’ said Kayla Dalton, a Realtor with Dickson Realty. These bidding wars mean that the cancellation rate is also very high right now. ‘The cancellation rate is so high because these buyers are throwing out these ridiculous offers just to land something, and then they’re reviewing what their finances are, they’re reviewing the payment structure, and they’re getting uncomfortable,’ Dalton said. ‘So then they’re canceling transactions.’”

    I call Bullsh*t. If it’s all cash, why would they worry about payment? I bet they pull money out of their current shacks. That may be cash to the realtards but its like borrowing money to buy VIAC or GSX. Works fine until you get the margin calls!

  11. “Boom, Boom, Boom! Millennials are hitting the housing market driving up demand at a time that inventory is at a low point. The housing market is enjoying a boom time, and home values are soaring, too. U.S. housing gained $2.5 trillion in value last year, according to Zillow, an Internet realtor service. That’s the biggest jump since 2005. Mortgage lenders made a record $4.4 trillion in home loans in 2020; the biggest lender, Quicken Loans, issued $1 billion of loans per day.”

    Is this a lot? I bet those are mostly non-QM loans *cough* *cough* subprimes

    “Many of them are not buying ‘starter’ homes, either; their first home is on the upper end of the market, price-wise. ‘Millennials are finally coming out of the gate,’ reported luxury realtor Sotheby’s. ‘It’s not uncommon for their first purchase to be a multimillion-dollar luxury home.’”

    Ahem Ahem

  12. NSFW language
    I love this guy. He’s very well spoken and very, very cool despite being attacked by a loon. He’s using a megaphone to send an important message about liberty and the current virus psyop, crazy biker smashes his car window.
    No need to question authority – Everything on TV is always true | Biker smash passenger window COVID • Mar 31, 2021
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_wa5R5hmsM

  13. From the WaMu piece: “I think the lessons learned from this is that whenever we get in these periods of encouraging asset bubbles like the Fed did leading up to the last financial crisis, they kept interest rates below the rate of inflation for an extended period of time. And guess what? Housing prices rose at an unrealistic level,” he said.

    There it is, again.

  14. Back in 1984 I remember thinking the girl in the Survivor – I Can’t Hold Back video was pretty hot. Then in 1986 I remember thinking the blonde on the Oktoberfest float in the movie Ferris Bueller’s Day Off was pretty hot. But it wasn’t until last night or early this morning when I was chasing videos on a hard to sleep night that I discovered they were the same girl.

    Survivor – I Can’t Hold Back (Video)

    https://youtu.be/GaMcsKtBDwE

    THURSDAY, JULY 17, 2014
    The Girl in the Video: “I Can’t Hold Back” (1984)

    Close to the same time that “I Can’t Hold Back” was shot, I was cast in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off as one of the German fräuleins. During the parade scene, I appeared on the float with Matthew Broderick dancing to the songs “Danke Schoen” and “Twist and Shout.”

    https://www.noblemania.com/2014/07/the-girl-in-video-i-cant-hold-back-1984.html

      1. Insanely hot, and not a piercing or tattoo.

        Even today, most truly attractive woman understand that tats are corporal graffiti.

        1. “The hair and makeup are a bit much.”

          Point taken.

          In the music video she looked best in the beginning at the library and the end walking away from the library. She didn’t have that big frizzy 80s hair or the overdone makeup at those points.

          But it was the 80s, I was young and to this day she looked good in the jeans and leather pants from start to finish.

  15. I have ZERO debt.

    That’a why I’m out hiking in the Pike National Forest on a Thursday in the nicest weather so far this year, while people with mortgages are trapped on the debt plantation, because they are slaves.

    I’ll post pics for Jeff later.

    1. Just think. You could have had a boat load of crushing debt on a rotting depreciating pile of sticks than you’d never be made whole on.

      1. There’s also the tender trap, which can easily lead to a house in the suburbs, a mini van and a politically correct corporate cubicle job with health insurance. “You can check-out, but you can never leave!” —Hotel California by the Eagles

        1. a mini van

          You mean an SUV. Minivans went out of style a long time ago. Ford and GM don’t even sell them anymore. Neither does Nissan.

          1. When were minivans ever in style? The very day they came out they were dad-joked to death. Their only saving grace was that they were less dorky than their predecessor, the wood-panel station wagon. Now, SUVs look wealthy and imposing, the love child that got the best of its limousine and truck parents. Of course, that look comes with a price.

          2. Minivans used to sell very well and every automaker sold one. They are now a niche product and of the Big 3, only Chrysler still sells them.

    2. I know he is too old for hiking Pike National Forest but aside from that, how is the mountain climbing HBB dog doing?

      PS

      You forgot to say what today was, and I don’t mean April Fools Day.

      1. Since his humanoid caretaker, who is also technically my “boss” now, is a self employed master electrician with NO DEBT, Beau gets a lot of time at the dog parks and other lower altitude exercise.

        I will drive 80 miles each way to a trailhead just to get away from the mask Karens, I didn’t see another hiker all day, and more importantly, any masks. Drive 15-20 miles to the trailheads near Morrison and Conifer, and the COVID Karens are everywhere.

        Spring is here, best weather day in the mountains so far this year.

        1. Beau gets a lot of time at the dog parks and other lower altitude exercise.

          Ah, the good old days. Makes me miss my fur baby, a JRT.

        2. “Which reminds me . . . rms, how’s that Spaniel doin’?”

          We almost lost her (the Spaniel) after the abscessed tooth and extraction, but she’s back to normal again. My other half went on an emotional roller coaster ride, lights left on around the house, no cooking for a few days, etc., saw a side of her I hadn’t seen before.

        3. Curiosity question: how long did it take you to rise to the rank of master electrician, and roughly how much did it cost? Two years of community college? OJT Experience and a test? Book larnin’? IIRC, years ago you had been a liberal arts graduate. If you escaped semi-snowflakery, the heavy debtors can too.

    3. Citizen! While hiking in remote mountain trails, always be sure to wear two masks and maintain the required social distancing! At regular intervals, run in circles flapping your arms and shrieking like a banshee. Oh, and you are solely authorized to get your news and information from globalist media, lest BadThink take root and you begin to deviate from The Narrative.

      Covid Isn’t Over, and the Next Wave May Be Worse

      https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-31/global-covid-cases-rapidly-rise-as-the-world-fears-a-fourth-wave?srnd=premium-middle-east&sref=ibr3A0ff

        1. Depends on where in the world. It might be another year before the third-world countries get the vaccine. And every case is a chance for another mutation. IMO they need to employ the magic Ivermectin.

        2. A fourth wave?

          They’re having an hysteria attack right now in Ontario Canada. Locking down for four weeks because of this fourth wave. 30 people a day die in the whole country with some sort of “Covid associated” tag. Less than one out of a million and it’s like the moon was covered in blood. If the media and the government weren’t relentlessly pushing this thing, nobody would know about it.

          What does “Covid associated” even mean? Patient had an itchy nose? My nurse daughter says it means “overcounting”.

    1. “When the looting starts, the shooting starts”

      I don’t know much about shotguns but am considering looking into one that could be used for hunting ducks / doves as well as self-defense.

          1. A couple houses down my block the neighbors keep a poultry. Two chickens and 1-2 ducks, I think. Last fall they had a rooster but it’s gone now (roosters might not be allowed). They’re Asian so I guess they use a lot of duck eggs?

  16. Re: house prices
    – We’re back to insanity again in the SFH market (globally), thanks to historically low mortgage rates. MFH is in the toilet for reasons I won’t go into, but we all know what they are.
    – Recall that “shacks” are a depreciating, illiquid asset, with high carrying costs.
    – That 40 year old house isn’t getting any younger. New paint, new roof, new carpet, etc., and let’s not forget to mention property taxes, real estate commissions, HOA/COA fees. There are more. And how about those neighbors next door?
    – So, fundamentally, what makes SFH shacks worth more today than when new? Answer: Nothing. They’re like a car. Once you drive off the lot they start losing value, since autos are also a depreciating asset. If not for global central banks pumping the current housing bubble, it would be “meh.” Recall that bubbles always pop, and so we all have that to look forward to. Someone’s being sold a bill of goods, but thankfully, it’s not me.
    – Finally, due to the rampant fiat debasement and assoc. inflation in pretty much everything, I’m fine with my gold and silver holdings. They’re a store of value, and have been for at least 5,000 years. Can’t print it. It holds its value against the (loser) money printers. Sure, no yield, but where can you get that today anyway with ZIRP/NIRP?

    “All the money and all the banks in Christendom cannot control credit…Gold is money and nothing else.” – JP Morgan’s 1912 Congressional testimony on “the justification of Wall Street”

    “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett

        1. As the saying goes, “Houses do not appreciate. Only land appreciates.” w@h might change that somewhat.

          1. Land is highly speculative. Considering there is a globe full of land where 95% of it goes undeveloped, land is essentially worthless dirt. If you paid more than $500-$1,000 an acre you paid too much.

          2. ‘Only land appreciates.’ Over the long term, it will provide yields similar to an inflation-protected 30 year bond.

            It’s the preferred way to pass on intergenerational wealth across centuries in the South. Still has great tax advantages. It’s common to plant pine trees that commercial paper companies will pay to harvest every 10 years or so. The market for grass-fed beef has done wonders for both income and land prices in the South Eastern Piedmont. The needed water just falls from the sky, like magic.

            Nothing will ever replace Tobacco in VA/NC for generating income from land. It built all of the hospitals, universities, museums, and country clubs. That is the greater reason that the commies went after Tobacco. It’s not like people who believe in eugenics and population control care about public health.

            As for me, I like that land bought at the right price can preserve wealth. It won’t generate significant returns, but it can be passed on. Plus, every bit as significant for me, I can use the right piece of land as a canvas. I have a vision for a garden that requires scale to fully realize. I just don’t have the space in the burbs to cultivate the garden that I feel compelled to actualize. It’s a passion that has to be satisfied.

  17. China central bank warnings are out. But in FOMO does the (any) general population care?

    The US public debt to GDP seems to be 129%. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
    .

    BEIJING — China’s central bank warned on Thursday of financial risks in the country that have accumulated over the years, as well as shocks from overseas uncertainties.

    These risks include “oscillation” in the stock and fixed income markets and potential bond defaults in real estate companies, said Zou Lan, director of the People’s Bank of China’s financial markets department

    “The stock, bond and commodities markets face oscillation risks,” he said, according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks. “A small number of large-scale enterprise groups are still in a period of risks being exposed, middle and low-quality enterprises still face financing difficulties, and the risk of default is rather high.”

    Zou added that pressure from rising house prices in some “hot” cities is relatively large, and the potential of debt default and other risks among highly leveraged medium-sized and small real estate businesses is worth watching.

    The Chinese government announced last month it will target GDP growth of over 6% this year. Many economists said the conservative target gives policymakers the ability to address long-term problems such as a buildup of debt.

    China’s debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 285% as of the end of the third quarter of 2020, up from an average of 251% between 2016 to 2019, according to a report from Allianz, citing analysis from its subsidiary Euler Hermes.

    1. The CFPB, the new financial sheriff in town, makes it clear it
      is also the mayor, judge and jailer. Just in case you’re wondering, the government is now fully in charge of the mortgage industry. They let the companies themselves run the day to day operation, but the government is in control.

    2. “Modification” is s-o-o-o-o 2009. 🙄 Aren’t most of these loans now either owned by the Fed, or FHA/VA/USDA? How will the CFPB “hold accountable” the FHA? And aren’t most of the loans fixed-rate, at a low rate? There’s no way to lower a payment enough that the FB can afford it. The only useful mod would be to tack the forbearance amount at the back of the mortgage instead of demanding full payment up front. I think the banks will agree to that, but no more.

      I think it’s going to faster this time. During the last housing crisis, the ONLY reason that banks would modify loans or allow the FBs (I remember the “feisty nurses” and the WOZIKINAK LYNN) to squat is that house prices were dropping like a rock. It was cheaper to keep a non-paying FB in the house at bubble price than to sell the house into a bust and realize massive losses. But this time, house prices will likely stay stable this year as all these foreclosures pile up. Banks stand to lose very little, and they will chase after houses with sweet equity.

      And this puzzles me anyway. People who lost their jobs to COVID should have been collecting $2400/mo on top of unemployment. Why didn’t they use that to keep up with the monthly note? That would have lasted them at least 8-9 months, and they could have covered with savings. (LLs with deadbeat tenants are screwed.)

      1. The loan mods I’ve seen over the years do the following:

        1) add late payments to the end of the loan, as a balloon (or principal forgiveness some point in the future)
        2) lower the interest rate, sometimes even into the 2’s, or even 1’s for a year or two
        3) reamortize the principal balance over 40 years.

        These things together can usually make a $2,000 mortgage payment into a $1,300 mortgage payment, the wildcard being the real estate taxes, which in some places, seem to increase exponentially every year.

        1. the wildcard being the real estate taxes, which in some places, seem to increase exponentially every year

          I cannot fathom buying real estate in such locales.

          1. I theory the property taxes should act as a damper on wanton sales prices since the monthly payment must meet the needs of the “how much a month buyers.”

    1. The “yella-fellas” were America’s most recent slaves toiling on Leland Stanford’s railroad to being interned in central California prison camps, but I don’t see them wallowing in self pity.

      1. We can’t have the narrative that Asian-Americans overcame discrimination with hard work and perseverance so now we’ve got the manufactured anti-Asian narrative.

    1. Or would it make more sense to HODL bonds, despite the Fed’s nonchalant attitude about future inflation risks?

      1. The Financial Times
        US employment
        Jobs growth expected to jump as economic recovery strengthens
        Fed appears relaxed about inflation as investors sell off long-term US treasury debt
        Vice-president Kamala Harris pauses during in a roundtable session about reducing childhood poverty at the Boys and Girls Club of New Haven on March 26 in Connecticut
        James Politi in Washington
        30 minutes ago

        US job gains are expected to have accelerated in March, in a sign that the economic recovery was strengthening as Joe Biden signed his $1.9tn stimulus into law.

        According to consensus forecasts by economists, non-farm payrolls data due at 8:30am on Friday is expected to show a rise in jobs of more than 650,000 last month, a big jump compared to 379,000 in February.

        The improvement in the labour market has occurred amid a brighter picture in America’s fight against the pandemic, as a winter surge in infections ebbed and the rate of vaccinations picked up sharply.

        In the past few weeks, Covid-19 cases have started to pick up again but the pace of inoculation has continued to rise, raising hope of further improvement in coming months.

        The stronger recovery has led investors to sell off long term US treasury debt in recent months, lifting yields on the 10 year note to over 1.7 per cent. But Federal Reserve officials have not expressed any alarm over rising borrowing costs or even the likely spike in inflation this year, saying it would probably be transient.

        The monthly US jobs report for March lands as US stock markets are closed for the Easter weekend but bond desks remain open.

  18. Stock market euphoria is within striking distance of flashing a sell signal, Bank of America warns
    Emily Graffeo
    Apr. 1, 2021, 06:03 PM
    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 16, 2020 in New York City
    Spencer Platt/Getty Images
    – A BofA contrarian indicator that measures investor bullishness rose for the third straight month to a 10-year high in March.
    – The signal is less than a point away from indicating overextended optimism on Wall Street.
    – BofA’s indicator forecasts a lackluster 6% total return in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months.

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