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People Who Suddenly Find Themselves Underwater Will Start Walking Away

A report from Better Dwelling in Canada. “A Canadian official in charge of housing policy confirmed the current market is not an accident. Instead, it’s a conscious decision where the government picked the winners and losers. TVO aired an interview with MP Adam Vaughan yesterday, discussing housing policy. In the interview, Vaughan, who helps oversee the CMHC, said price drops are not an option. The minister also said the market doesn’t work for locals, but is great for foreign investors. He also implied the strategy they might use to fix the market is one they were warned against.”

“The government refuses to let prices drop, and will support inefficiencies. When Vaughan was asked if he would allow home prices to fall 10%, he tried to explain how hard it would be on homeowners. When discussing a price drop, the minister said ‘I can understand why that is seen as a positive thing for people who are trying to get into the market, but hands up if you’d like to see 10 percent of the equity in your home suddenly disappear overnight.'”

“The minister was asked why a 10% drop would matter with prices rising ’30 to 40 percent’ over the past year. Apparently, without last year’s absurd gains, people would be underwater. ‘you know it’s a situation where you don’t want people to be underwater with their mortgages.’ He adds this is really an issue to save the real estate development industry in Canada. ‘You don’t people who’ve made deposits on properties suddenly find themselves underwater if they close the deal. Because they’ll start walking away from projects and that collapse will have impacts on the development industry so you’ve got to be very careful about this.'”

“Canada doesn’t think it has a foreign investment problem, because they see it as a good thing. While discussing sprawl, Vaughan made an unprompted jump to foreign investment. He said, ‘we have a very good system for foreign investment creating a lot of new housing in Canada as we have immigrants as we grow the population.'”

“A few seconds later, he admits the market is safe for foreign investment, but not so much for locals. ‘… we are a very safe market for foreign investment but we’re not a great market for Canadians looking to make choices around housing and so we’ve got to make a number of decisions that address the 2 sides of this coin.'”

“I know what you’re thinking — what foreign investment? They said that died down years ago. It’s likely a reference to new home pre-sales and permanent residents that are buying. Some argue new home pre-sale assignments are faster funded when foreign investors are involved. This is faster than waiting for your broke-ass to put together a downpayment.”

From Bisnow London. “When the UK government said in February that its ban on evicting commercial tenants was to be extended until July, it made a tacit admission: It does not know how to bring to an end the yearlong policy without undue consequences. ‘I’m of course only speculating, but I think this is really a proxy for a huge debate going on within government right now,’ British Property Federation Chief Executive Melanie Leech said. ‘The government stepped in at a time of crisis to support the economy, but now they can’t relieve that, and the can is being kicked down the road.'”

“For real estate owners, it is hard to say right now which of their tenants are being kept alive artificially by the boost to cashflow provided by the furlough, but might go under eventually. The question becomes, at what point do you try and cut your losses and find a new tenant? This is a very Anglo Saxon way of looking at an economy, Nuveen Head of Research for Europe Stefan Wundrak said — the creative destruction that argues it is better to let things go bust fast and then move on, rather than the more European idea of continuing support.”

“The potential downside for real estate is — too much investment in real estate. ‘It means capital doesn’t flow to productive uses,’ Wundrak said. ‘Whether it is an institution or a private investor, everyone just sticks money in houses and property.'”

“That might seem a paradox, but in the long run it means less investment in technology, innovation and research, which makes companies less productive and slows economic growth. Investment in property is great for the sector in the short term, but slows the economic growth that fuels the sector in the long term. A problem for another day, but a problem nonetheless. When it comes to withdrawal of government support and stimulus, nothing is as simple as it seems.”

The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “The Reserve Bank’s charter requires it to work towards the economic prosperity and welfare of all Australians, but for most people that can be narrowed down to one issue – house prices. Since the advent of non-bank lenders in the mortgage market in the 1990s, property prices have grown faster than wages and inflation, generating an ongoing debate about who is to blame for a situation that leaves one of the world’s most sparsely populated nations with some of the globe’s most expensive housing.”

“It’s an issue of which the RBA is acutely aware. And the sharp lift in house prices through the past 12 months, as interest rates have fallen to their lowest levels in history while governments have thrown billions of dollars at housing stimulus packages, has amplified the focus on the RBA and its role.”

“Commonwealth Bank’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, says falling interest rates have been a major economic tailwind for the past 30 years. But with rates at zero, and households carrying record levels of debt, a reckoning is coming that would be felt across the economy and especially in the property market.”

“‘Every time the central bank cuts interest rates, a person walks into a bank and asks for a bigger loan to pay for a house. It happens again and again,’ he says. ‘You get to that point where you can’t keep doing that when you have interest rates at zero. We’ve now had the last of the kicks of the can down the road.'”

From North Jersey. “New Jerseyans cannot be kicked out of their homes through at least mid-June under Gov. Phil Murphy’s eviction and foreclosure moratorium, a protection he has renewed each month since March 2020. ‘While many of the financial institutions in the state are providing forbearance for some mortgage holders, not every financial institution is, and forbearance basically just keeps that homeowner in debt before an extended period of time,’ Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver said. ‘Let’s cross our fingers and see if the feds are going to let us do something with mortgage assistance”

The Real Deal on New York. “Hedge funder Steve Cohen’s Midtown penthouse, which had been on the market since 2013, finally found a buyer after a stunning 74 percent discount. ‘[That was] certainly one of the largest price drops in the history of residential real estate,’ said Donna Olshan, author of the report, which tracks contract activity of Manhattan homes asking $4 million and above. ‘A breathtaking eight years on the market and cycling through four brokers. Well done.'”

“Cohen first listed the 9,000-square-foot duplex at Beacon Court Condominium for $115 million in 2013. He slashed the price multiple times as he cycled through a who’s who of prominent brokers. The final asking price when it went into contract last week was $29.5 million.”

“Olshan noted that last week’s performance is notable for the lack of foreign buyers. ‘It’s all happening with a half a tank of gas because we don’t have the global audience,’ she said. ‘Many businesses are not open and we have no tourists.'”

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This Post Has 136 Comments

  1. ‘A Canadian official in charge of housing policy confirmed the current market is not an accident. Instead, it’s a conscious decision’

    I’ve been saying this for a while, based on what these a$$hats actually say. And if you think pointy headed fools can make this work, go out there and snap up some shacks.

    ‘ Apparently, without last year’s absurd gains, people would be underwater. ‘you know it’s a situation where you don’t want people to be underwater with their mortgages.’ He adds this is really an issue to save the real estate development industry in Canada. ‘You don’t people who’ve made deposits on properties suddenly find themselves underwater if they close the deal. Because they’ll start walking away from projects and that collapse will have impacts on the development industry so you’ve got to be very careful about this’

    This is a critical point. Speculators walk away. Pretty much everybody is gambling with a sh$tload of borrowed money. And eventually prices stop moving up and it’s time to take profit! But from who?

    1. Everyone is a DJT on the way up and think they are dancing close to the very narrow exit doors.

      1. At least DJT had $200 million in Dad’s money to get him started.

        Most of the wannabe DJTs are leveraged to the neck and will be deep underway the next time prices revert from bubble valuations to normalcy.

          1. We may never know for sure.

            Thanks, Pop
            Donald Trump’s inheritance
            Does the president owe it all to his father, and a lot to the taxman?
            United States
            Oct 4th 2018 edition
            Oct 6th 2018

            DONALD TRUMP has always said he is a self-made billionaire. The president insists that the only financial help he got from his father Fred, a New York City developer, was a $1m loan, which he repaid. An investigation by the New York Times (NYT), published this week, concludes that he actually received fifty times that amount, that it was not repaid, and that many of the transfers were dodgy.
            …

      1. These imbeciles are trying to run their cities like a dollhouse, but the debt math keeps getting in their way. The reality is that they’re juggling flaming cats and trying to not get burned.

    3. Barbara Corcoran on housing market: ‘Every buyer out there is panicked and depressed’

      yea I bet

  2. ‘forbearance basically just keeps that homeowner in debt before an extended period of time…Let’s cross our fingers and see if the feds are going to let us do something with mortgage assistance’

    This is what happens when you put the DMV in charge of the global economy. Remember these are the same people who put us all under house arrest. Violated who can count how many of our basic rights? To this day insist they have the “right” to eliminate common law, which BTW is the basis for property rights and values to begin with.

    They also say boys might be girls and vicey versa. They pretend this senile, corrupt pedophile could possibly have won an election – by the largest bit in history no less, when he couldn’t fill a phone booth the day before the election. We are in serious la la territory here.

    1. Very serious. Cops barging in churches telling people they have to leave and “go directly home or else….”. If you don’t think this is serious, you’re going to get what you so richly deserve.

      First 15 minutes.

      https://youtu.be/ughMOv8Zees

      1. Of course it’s serious. Like third world stuff. Just how long are we gonna let these people get away with it? Oh let’s move on, say the globalists! Contract rights are sooo passe. It’s only the basis for capitalism, which has given us everything we have.

        An example: we are told how to reshape everything from the mouth of a 20 something bartender who’s never had a real job in her life. We got a dottering idiot saying he’s gonna take peoples guns. This while these same people say stealing isn’t illegal and the police stand by while college students are looting stores in California. But you better not go to church!

        1. But you better not go to church!

          FWIW, churches in my little burg have been open since last summer, though some clutch their pearls and only do online services.

        2. The Government and Government Agencies really failed in protecting the US Citizens from a insurrection of this Country by Globalist Monopolies. They are no different than Foreign enemies in that they want to take over the US and put Puppets in Government to advance their agenda of their anti human , anti freedom and anti Constitutional USA. Its called a Oligarchy.

          There must be a rejection of this power grab by these Entities because its already evident they are criminal, and they have no right to rule Citizens and take all their Constitutional rights and freedoms, also using Medical Tyranny to accomplish their twisted goals.

          You can already see the insanity and destruction these Entities are causing. Private Company Monopolies were not suppose to rule the US for God Sakes .

      2. Coronavirus: The Latest
        Capacity limits no longer mandatory at California churches
        California
        by: Alexa Mae Asperin
        Posted: Apr 12, 2021 / 04:01 PM PDT / Updated: Apr 12, 2021 / 05:44 PM PDT

        SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) – The state on Monday officially lifted all capacity limits on churches and other places of worship effective immediately.

        According to the state’s COVID-19 website, industry guidance for “Places of worship and cultural ceremonies” was updated on April 12.
        …

        1. “Capacity limits no longer mandatory at California churches
          Californiah”

          Not willingly. They were forced by the US supreme court.

          California govt is a corrupt, thieving evil that will bring about its own demise.

          1. IIRC,Newsollini’s fifth lose before the Supreme Court. He’s sure to have better luck after Joe packs it.

    2. And to say such obvious truths will get you banned, deplatformed, fired from your job, canceled and destroyed.

  4. ‘on the market since 2013, finally found a buyer after a stunning 74 percent discount. ‘[That was] certainly one of the largest price drops in the history of residential real estate…A breathtaking eight years on the market and cycling through four brokers. Well done’

    Yeah, well done Donna! Seven years of navel gazing and “safe deposit box in the sky” ends with a major schlonging. Note the lack of concern about wasted resources and global warming when it come to shacks and airboxes!

    1. “Note the lack of concern about wasted resources and global warming when it come to shacks and airboxes!”
      BitCoins falls in here too. I have not heard anyone complaining about the computer/chip resources required nor the energy required in making Bitcoins. Almost like they really don’t care about the environment and “Global Warming”, they just want to b*tch.
      In fact, I brought this up once and he said, “Well compared to mining for gold and silver it is just a drop in the bucket.” I said, gold and Silver have practical real world uses, Bitcoin doesn’t. His response, “Crickets”

      2. The environmentalists and globalists talk a lot about BTC and it’s environmental damage.

        The people actually mining BTC don’t likely give a damn, because why would they if they can earn money?

    3. “a stunning 74 percent discount”

      That’s about right.

      Imagine borrowing a kings ransom… an amount you can never hope to recover…. and using it to pay for a house. Only to find its worth 74% less.

      That’s the reality of buying a house at anytime in the last 20 years.

  5. ‘… we are a very safe market for foreign investment but we’re not a great market for Canadians looking to make choices around housing and so we’ve got to make a number of decisions that address the 2 sides of this coin’

    Pissing on yer back and calling it rain.

    ‘I know what you’re thinking — what foreign investment? They said that died down years ago’

    Oh for the days when they said, foreign investment talk is racism! Then they tried to ban it, tax it, still are somewhat. Now we see they luuuv those Chinese money launders. Which they always did.

    ‘It’s likely a reference to new home pre-sales and permanent residents that are buying. Some argue new home pre-sale assignments are faster funded when foreign investors are involved. This is faster than waiting for your broke-ass to put together a downpayment’

    Canadia is full of broke ass. That’s because housing bubbles make you poor and then they pop.

    1. The US luuuvs money laundering in RE too. Remember when the Panama Papers came out and vast amounts of this crime were exposed to be encouraged by many levels of guberment? But yeah, let’s have the inmates run the asylum.

        1. Damn. Behind a pay wall.

          Is one of the tips writing a letter to promise to feed the squirrels?

  7. Anyone remember when elected officials were public servants of the folks that elected them?

    “The minister also said the market doesn’t work for locals, but is great for foreign investors.”

    1. Anyone remember when elected officials were public servants of the folks that elected them?

      Remember, if your currency has a picture of the Queen on it. you’re a subject, not a citizen. Your national law doesn’t have a set in stone Bill of Rights and your parliament can easily change any law to suit its desires.

  8. Just a data point.

    Was with a group of about two dozen 20-30 old males. From all levels of the economy and educational levels.

    Every single one of them was invested in high flying tech companies and cryptocurrencies.

    Every single one thought themselves superior investors cause they were currently winning.

    1. ‘Nother data point: My wife has a relative who is a long-time midlevel manager at a venerable U.S. corporation with a household name product. The rumor passing through the family grapevine is that he recently acquired two high powered laptops to support his sideline of cryptocurrency investing.

      Morals of the story:

      1) If enough members of society poor time, energy, and money into a fundamentally worthless activity, it becomes valuable.

      2) It is also possible to turn water into gold.

    2. Why do investors equate the blockchain technology with Bitcoin per se, confusing a positive statement about the technology as an endorsement for a specific cryptocurrency? Isn’t the memo out that there is no limit on the number of new startup rival cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin?

      What do these people smoke when they wake up in the morning?

      1. Editors’ Pick|Apr 13, 2021,
        05:55 am EDT|12,534 views
        Janet Yellen, Bitcoin And Crypto Fearmongers Get Pushback From Former CIA Director
        Steven Ehrlich
        Forbes Staff
        Crypto & Blockchain
        I write about how digital assets are going to change the world

        Bitcoin just received a strong vote of confidence from an unlikely source, a former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency. In so doing, he put senior government officials who issue public warnings about bitcoin’s alleged use by criminals, such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, on notice.

        Michael Morell, a 33-year veteran of the agency, published an independent paper commissioned by the newly formed lobbying group Crypto Council for Innovation (whose founding members include Coinbase, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Square) directly refuting this well-traveled narrative. In an expansive study, Morell came to two key conclusions:

        – The broad generalizations about the use of bitcoin in illicit finance are significantly overstated.

        – Blockchain analysis is a highly effective crime fighting and intelligence gathering tool.

        But that is not all. In speaking with Forbes before the paper’s release, Morell made it clear that there will also be severe geopolitical repercussions for the U.S. vis-a-vis China if it wastes energy and resources chasing a ghost as opposed to leveraging blockchain, and fintech more generally, to build the country’s technological and economic base. Specifically, he said that “we need to make sure that the conventional wisdom that is wrong about the illicit use of Bitcoin doesn’t hold us back from pushing forward the technological changes that are going to allow us to keep pace with China.”
        …

  9. Is there an excessive level of fiscal and monetary stimulus that results in unsustainable economic overheating, asset price bubbles, and crashes? Or is more stimulus with the pedal to the metal for longer always better? How do you know if the economy’s speed limit is violated?

    I guess we will soon learn…

  10. Well, phooey, the CDC/FDA is “pausing” J&J vaccine because 6 women out of 7,000,000 got a blood clot. They’re aren’t sure if it was from the vaccine. They’re looking at it now and will issue further guidance later this week.

    1. Untested. Rushed. Experimental. Gene therapy (close enough).

      Full liability protection.

      For a disease that 99.99% will make a full recovery.

      Yes…more and more and more side effects are going to be “unexpectedly” discovered.

      What could go wrong?

      And you really think it is just six women?

        1. I got the first dose of the Pfizer poison yesterday.

          Since I’m never having kids, I’m not worried about them being born with 14 toes and no eyes. The class action lawsuits 5 years from now should be interesting.

          2. I thought you weren’t going to? What changed your mind?

            I had wanted J&J, but my state followed FDA and yanked J&J very quickly. They’re going to meet tomorrow, presumably to look over the health histories of the women to look for data trends. I can wait for more info before deciding what to do.

          3. After the events of the last week, J&J is likely not happening, not in Colorado any time soon. I drove an hour to get it in Colorado Springs (after what could have been a very delicious last meal at Rudy’s BBQ) because there are no appointments available in Dumver.

            Prior to the CCP Flu escaping from a steaming bowl of pangolin soup, I’ve done renovation and tenant finish work in hospitals. These are nice gigs, because they are all indoors, and extremely clean (no pee bottles) jobsites compared to some of the places I’ve worked. I’ll never get a vaxx passport but I’ll show the paper card to work in hospitals.

            I may or may not get the second dose, because as every screeching blue haired feminist says, my body my choice.

        2. I can wait for more info before deciding what to do.

          https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1382001392869576704 (thread):

          To be clear on what the numbers really are here:

          Well over 100 women have become severely ill or died from an incredibly rare clotting condition after receiving the DNA/AAV #Covid vaccines . The known cases now are mostly @astrazeneca, but the @jnj vaccine is almost identical…

          Well over 100 cases? Really?

          YES.

          The @EMA_News reported 86 @astrazeneca cases, including 18 fatalities, as of March 22. That did not include about 50 cases and 10 deaths reported to British regulators from March 24-31.

          The denominator is in the range 40-50 million doses – 20 million in Britain, 20+ million in the EU. A dose is NOT a completed vaccination, as the @astrazeneca vaccine requires two doses.

          So the real ratio here is far higher than 1 per million vaccinations…

          1. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1382007222083850249:

            1/ Actually, @ema_news dumped in updated numbers in a footnote to a press release last week. They are worse than I thought:

            222 total cases out of 34 million people vaccinated (they don’t disclose deaths or how many of those are one versus two doses.)

            This is as of April 4 and yet again proves how bad the underreporting to these voluntary side effect systems is. As of 10 days earlier, the EU was saying 86 cases (18 deaths) out of 25 million doses.

          1. The CDC never put out the 99.99% number. The 99.99% number comes from a mis-interpretation of errors in the completion of death certificates. Death certificates have two types of fields for cause of death:

            “Immediate” cause of death — this is almost always organ failure.
            “Contributing” cause of death — this is the disease or event that caused the organ failure, such as cancer, diabetes, bullet wound, COVID, falls, infection, etc.

            For 6% of COVID deaths, “COVID” was erroneously listed as the Immediate Cause of death. This led hoaxers and anti-vaxxers to conclude that only 6% of people died “of” COVID as an immediate cause, that is, only ~35000 people. The other 540,000 died “with” COVID, but they really died from diabetes and motorcycle accidents. That’s where the 99.99% comes from. 🙄

            Of course, by this reasoning, the survival rate from ANY disease or event would be 100.00%, since those are almost never listed as immediate causes. (But shhh, don’t tell that to the hoaxers. That’s doesn’t fit the narrative.) The real number of COVID deaths is obtained by ADDING the immediate cause (which are errors) and contributing cause (which are correct). The case survival rate is more like 98.2%. Now that we have better treatments and vaccines for the vulnerable, that rate will rise.

          2. CDC is lying about all of it. Yet there are some willing to hide and stay under their urine soaked mattress until everyone gets injected with the poison.

            At least a third will refuse to take the poison.

          4. So where does the publication say 99.99%? And that CDC document is a bunch of folks asking “what if” and preparing for different scenarios. By your reasoning, ALL of those scenarios, except the one that turned out to be correct, are “lies.”

          5. So where does the publication say 99.99%?

            While the CDC may not have explicitly said it, it looks like it can be deduced using math from what the CDC has published. This is how fact-checkers mislead.

            “In this final update, the age-specific estimates of Infection Fatality Ratios (IFRs) have been updated to reflect recently published estimates of IFRs from a systematic review and meta-analysis.1 These updated estimates have a wider uncertainty range to better reflect the potential variation in IFR geographically and over time. These values are intended to capture the national-level burden of COVID-19 deaths; however, national-level estimates may not reflect region-specific IFRs. Therefore, caution should be used when applying suggested IFR values to specific states, counties, and cities. This update also includes parameter values for healthcare utilization in individuals aged 0–17-years-old.”

            “Disease Severity
            Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR): The number of individuals who die of the disease among all infected individuals (symptomatic and asymptomatic). This parameter is not necessarily equivalent to the number of reported deaths per reported case because many cases and deaths are never confirmed to be COVID-19 and there is a lag in time between when people are infected and when they die. This parameter also reflects the existing standard of care, which might vary by location or hospital and could be affected by the introduction of new therapeutics. The IFR values presented in Table 1 are intended to capture the national-level burden of COVID-19 deaths; however, these values may not reflect IFR in specific states, counties, or cities in the United States.”

            “†These estimates are based on age-specific estimates of infection fatality ratios from Levin AT, Hanage WP, Owusu-Boaitey N, et al. Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: Systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications. Euro J Epidemiol. 2020;35(12):1123–1135.

            Using a meta regression of data from England, France, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Geneva (Switzerland), Belgium, Sweden, Ontario (Canada), and 12 U.S. locations (Atlanta, Georgia; Connecticut; Indiana; Louisiana; Miami;, Minneapolis, Minnesota; Missouri; New York; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Salt Lake City, Utah; San Francisco, California; and Seattle, Washington), Levin et al. produced estimates of IFR and associated 95% confidence intervals for 0.5–year age bands from 1 to 96 years old. To obtain the estimated values for each scenario, the IFR estimates by age were averaged to broader age groups, using weights based on the age distribution of cases from COVID-19 Case Surveillance Data reported by February 14, 2021 (public use version of data: https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/COVID-19-Case-Surveillance-Public-Use-Data/vbim-akqf).”

            Survival Rate = 1 – (Infection Fatality Rate)

          6. Euro J Epidemiol. 2020;35(12):1123–1135

            “Our analysis finds a exponential relationship between age and IFR for COVID-19. The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85.”

      3. Coronavirus Cases:
        31,997,770
        Deaths:
        576,401
        Recovered:
        24,563,678

        Percent of resolved cases recovered:
        24,563,678/(576,401+24,563,678)= 97.7%

        Percent that died = 2.3%

        2. Dying “with” covid and dying “from” covid are two entirely different stats.

          Literally, people with gun shots and motorcycle accidents and stage IV cancer with diabetes were classified as covid deaths. Anything to gin up the numbers.

          If you are under 55 with no underlying significant health issues, you have statistically zero chance from dying from covid. It is more dangerous to drive to the doctor’s office.

          1. No disease in history has ever been so politicized as COVID-19.

            And sadly, the effort backfired for the politicizers.

          2. the effort backfired for the politicizers

            How has this backfired on the Democrats yet? Trump’s out of office and Blue State governors are wannabe tyrannical dictators.

        3. Per recent CDC the number of excess deaths in 2020 in was 334,000 based on average deaths for 2015-2019. This a much more accurate figure for COVID19 deaths than the number you used.
          Also the number recovered is based on people that were diagnosed with the virus and recovered. This does not take in account the unknown number (but probably very large) of people who contracted the virus and did not need or seek diagnosis due to weak or non-existent symptoms.

          3. “This a much more accurate figure for COVID19 deaths than the number you used.”

            Except for one thing: It’s not the number of COVID-19 deaths.

          4. professor
            Just looked at CDC numbers.
            Official CDC Covid-19 deaths in 2020 =
            375,000 not your 576,401
            run your calculation again using a real deaths number and
            multiply your “recovered” number by 6 or 8 to reflect undiagnosed and no treatment requested or needed cases

    2. Dumb stat question of the day: How many out of a randomly chosen group of 7 million middle -aged and older women would normally develop blood clots over the post-vaccine surveillance time period?

      1. The women were age 18-48. A lot of people are speculating that there might be an interaction between the shot and birth control pills, which themselves show an incidence of blood clots of 6 out of 20,000.

        1. “…which themselves show an incidence of blood clots of 6 out of 20,000.”

          That number doesn’t mean much without specifying over what time span the blood clots occurred. Presumably the COVID-19 vaccine blood clots happened shortly after the shots.

          2. ‘Sir Munir added: “That puts into context that the risk of clots and lower platelet is much higher with COVID-19 than these extremely rare events which are occurring with the vaccine.”‘

            Nice try, but this comparison seems irrelevant for a 20-29 year old with a very low risk of catching COVID-19 and going into the ICU. The dude’s hypothetical comparison is between the risk of clots to someone who already has COVID-19 to the risk facing someone who doesn’t have it but submits to the jab.

            A fair assessment of relative risks would start with hypothetical individuals in the same health status who either choose to get stucco or not to get stucco. But this would work against selling the vax to the unsuspecting.

          3. A fair assessment of relative risks

            Irrespective of the jabs’ safeties and efficacies, some physicians are starting to publicly address this.

        2. Gee.

          Untested, rushed near gene therapy that fakes your body cell’s into massively producing protiens couldn’t have any side effects?

          1. And how proper has the disclosures been on the possible side effects of the vaccines. Its more like take the jab and do the right thing and don’t ask complicated questions. Oh no , untested by time vaccines are peachy because Big Pharmacy wouldn’t harm you, and the Government wouldn’t.

            My friend who took the jab was told, ” Oh your getting the best vaccine and its the most effective from keeping you from getting Covid.” I wouldn’t call that disclosure of possible side effects, whereby they quickly get the jabbed to sign the consent form.

            At this point I just wish my friend well with his decision to take the jab, but I know he was very fear based by the fear mongering that was going on. He’s one of these types that goes to the Dr all the time and almost has blind faith in anything they say. In fact, he thinks I’m nuts for not wanting the jab and he keeps telling me about places they are giving the jabs. He really does believe hes trying to get me to do the right thing because he doesn’t want to see me get Covid.
            I will never in this lifetime take any of those vaccines willingly. And if they try to force me to take it, they would have to tie me down with a gun in my face without my consent.

    1. Home Investing Stocks
      Opinion: Ignore warnings about a potential housing bubble and consider these stocks with bright outlooks
      Published: April 13, 2021 at 11:36 a.m. ET
      By Michael Brush
      The conditions for a pending crash in the market don’t exist.
      (Photo by Graeme Robertson/Getty Images)

      Referenced Symbols (CR8R alert!)
      LEN
      -2.13%
      PHM
      -1.11%
      DHI
      -1.37%
      HHC
      -0.92%
      KBH
      -2.79%

      People who know a thing or two about stock market bubbles are sounding the alarm about the housing sector. That sounds like bad news — the last one caused the financial crisis.

      Take Kerry Killinger, former CEO of Washington Mutual Savings Bank. His bank was at the core of the 2007-2008 financial meltdown. So, his recent warnings of an emerging housing sector bubble should make you take notice.

      Other housing sector experts worry that rising mortgage rates will damage sector growth. If higher rates spark a slowdown, it’ll hurt everyone since home building is such a big driver in our economy.

      But should we really be scared? I don’t think so.
      …

      1. CR8R WARNING!

        Referenced Symbols
        LEN
        -2.23%
        PHM
        -1.16%
        DHI
        -1.51%
        HHC
        -1.24%
        KBH
        -2.79%
        JPM
        -0.62%
        MDC
        -2.85%
        TOL
        -2.25%
        MAS
        -1.08%
        AWI
        -1.32%
        JELD
        -1.63%

      2. “True, it’s troubling that home prices shot up 10% last year, and we can expect the same increase this year. Such rapid price gains can suggest a bubble is in the works. Buyers continue to aggressively chase scarce supply, another warning sign. The average existing property sells in just 16 days, points out Bank of America.”

          1. Eveything is awesome I suppose.

            I am bothered tremendously that a blue chip index wager will create as much gain in a single trading day session as putting the same money into a “safe” certficate of deposit or I-bond account and holding for a year. This melt up has had me go more to cash and I guess Bogleheads would say that is fool behavior. I’ve seen this movie before. Everything is 1999 until oops, we did not expect these indicators or this fintech behemoth to blunder so bad.

          2. I guess Bogleheads would say that is fool behavior

            From what I remember, Bogleheads like low-cost index funds. I used to follow that advice 10+ years ago for my IRA. With so much fraud in the market, exemplified by $TSLA in the S&P, index funds might not be the wisest strategy these days.

  16. I’m calling the top for the my local market, which is 20 miles on the outside of a California second tier city (Sacramento). A 1,300 sq ft sfh was on the market for $549 but closed at $597. An appraiser wouldn’t do this, so how many cash-rich morons are left?

    1. You do not have to be a cash rich moron, only credit rich moron.

      Come visit me for a demonstration.

    2. Just one (more) data point: Some used home sellers in our extended circle just sold their place for $1 million above what they initially bought for in 2006 (62.5% nominal gain). I’m not sure if they downsized, or bought a still larger place to capture even bigger future hotcake gains.

      1. Footnote: Pulling up tent stakes and moving to AZ…despite the foregone opportunity to sell homes like hotcakes in SD!

          1. Seems like the thinking among folks in our social circle is that “prices are high” and “its a good time to sell”. We personally know several families that recently moved or have nearterm plans to cash out their sweet California home equity and relocate to other states where housing is cheaper and taxes are less confiscatory.

            Nobody we know is saying now is a good time to buy…especially the people who have been looking for a while but keep getting outbid on any place they might consider buying.

    1. I’m considering ICF at least for the first floor at this point…not much more expensive but sturdier and more efficient…

        1. Did you strike water?

          Yep, got a healthy well at 10gpm @200ft.

          And at this point you may as well use I-beams

          Yeah, lots of “alternative” construction becomes attractive as lumber prices go up. It’s more than it would have been otherwise/a year ago, but at least I can get something positive in trade (stronger house, better insulation, truly square corners, etc)

    1. Today is Tuesday, April 13th and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

  20. Our blog host mentioned contract law earlier on this thread.

    CNBC — Pressure mounts for Biden to forgive student debt (4/13/2021):

    “While the latest stimulus package and a new massive infrastructure bill are the main topics of conversation in Washington of late, President Joe Biden continues to be under mounting pressure to take action on student loan forgiveness, too.

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., held a hearing on Tuesday afternoon on the burden of student loan debt and urged Biden to cancel the loans as soon as possible.

    Warren also discussed the racial inequities of student debt, pointing out that the median Black borrower still owes 95% of the original amount they borrowed 20 years after taking out the loans. The median White borrower, meanwhile, owes just 6% of the original amount they borrowed two decades later.”

    Answer the question: WHAT DID YOU MAJOR IN? And what kind of third / fourth tier university did you attend that awarded your degree, assuming you even graduated? Note the article says after taking out the loans, not after graduation.

    “This is the single most powerful executive action President Biden could take to advance racial equity and give everyone in America a chance to build a future,” Warren said.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/pressure-mounts-for-biden-to-forgive-student-debt-.html

    Does contract law even exist any more?

    More foot-stomping demanding endless gibs (no excerpt needed):

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/04/12/ayanna-pressley-you-cant-be-anti-racist-if-youre-against-canceling-student-loan-debt/

    1. Warren also discussed the racial inequities of student debt, pointing out that the median Black borrower still owes 95% of the original amount they borrowed 20 years after taking out the loans. The median White borrower, meanwhile, owes just 6% of the original amount they borrowed two decades later.”

      Guess which one wears $200+ sneakers.

      1. “give everyone in America a chance to build a future”

        Um, yeah. I was working one if not two jobs when I was a student and the loans I took out were paid back in full from money earned while working.

        I fail to see how another trillion plus dollar bailout and the subsequent inflation does anything for my future.

        1. “give everyone in America a chance to build a future”

          Even if their student loans are forgiven, all those victim studies majors will still be slinging coffee and won’t be buying a shack nor starting a family.

        2. “I fail to see how another trillion plus dollar bailout and the subsequent inflation does anything for my future.”

          “Support mental health, or I’ll kill you!” —Bumper Sticker

        3. I fail to see how another trillion plus dollar bailout and the subsequent inflation does anything for my future.

          It will do all kinds of things for your future … oh wait … you meant good things.

    2. to advance racial equity

      That’s not what you will end up with. Notice they don’t say “equality”.

      1. Why not just start a gofund me and have Hollywood kick in the $$$ ? Each one contributes a million dollars, maybe the student loans could be paid off a lot sooner.

  21. The minister also said the market doesn’t work for locals, but is great for foreign investors.

    Globalists gonna globe.

  22. While discussing sprawl, Vaughan made an unprompted jump to foreign investment. He said, ‘we have a very good system for foreign investment creating a lot of new housing in Canada as we have immigrants as we grow the population.’”

    Die, globalist scum.

  25. Anyone who buys a shack in a Bolshevik-controlled state or city should have no expectation their property rights will be respected.

    Couple who paid $560,000 for their dream home 15 months ago finally move in after previous owner used COVID-19 eviction moratorium to SQUAT>/strong>

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9466975/Couple-bought-home-15-MONTHS-buying-seller-refused-go.html

    A Southern California couple who closed on a $560,000 dream home weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic finally took control of the house after the former owner used a ban on evictions to squat inside the home for 15 months.

    Cell phone video from last fall shows the moment Tracie Albert and her friends confronted the squatter who refused to leave the Riverside, California home that he had sold to her and her husband.

  28. In a prior post that was made a Dr. was saying in summary that you can’t vaccinate during a Pandemic. The reason is that the vaccine is specific to the strain in the vaccine and turns off your immune ability to deal with mutations and other strains of the virus. So the Vaccine makes you more prone to get a worse case if a strain /mutation comes along that’s not specific to the vaccine. So you have to keep taking vaccines to deal with the ever-changing virus. A natural immune system doesn’t have a problem with recognizing strains/mutations from the disease it developed a immunity against.

    So it sets you up for being in a never ending cycle of vaccine taking. Now this might make sense for very old people who have lost their immune function , but not for younger people who can combat the virus and all mutations easy.

    So to vaccinate the Globe would set up the situation of need for repeated vaccinations for the Globe , verses herd immunity and just targeting people for vaccines that have little immune function ( like very old people).
    Watch the post where the Doctor explains how vaccines work and why you have Doctors who are against this mass vaccination , especially when the vaccines got emergency approval and weren’t time tested.

    Do you think people who could of throw off this virus easy by natural immunity will like the fact that they will be needing constant jabs because the vaccine altered their immune function to depends on vaccines? Just listen to the Dr at the end of the last thread posted. That’s why Dr Fauci keeps talking about mutants and the fact that the vaccinated still have to wear masks etc, but he won’t explain why.
    I predict when the shit hits the fan, Big Pharmacy will blame the Government and they were just responding to the request to produce vaccines under emergency Pandemic declared, where they have no liability.
    Interesting how Dr Fauci was predicting a Pandemic going way back to 2016, than the timing of when it happened.
    The degree of Medical Tyranny, lock downs , and destruction caused by this Big Pharmacy in conjunction with Government push for experimental vaccines, they were never able to get pass FDA approval before, is a harm that wasn’t justified and a profiteering and Tyranny by the Medical Monopoly to make populations under the thumb of the Medical Cartel. The other Monopolies have taken over the Gov. also , and all people get is censorship fake news. It all has to be rejected.

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