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The Reality Is People Have More Options Because More Housing Is Being Built

A report from WTSP on Florida. “If history is any indication, Joe Manausa says we are not currently in another housing bubble. The Florida-based realtor and author, with 30 years experience in the business, says rarely do we see the average housing price in the U.S. decline. In fact, he says, it’s only happened seven out of the past 80 years and five of those years were after the most recent housing bubble collapse. ‘So all these experts saying ‘oh we’re going to see another bubble,’ well the last bubble we saw before the previous one was after the Great Depression,’ he said. ‘History says there is no housing bubble.'”

“But what about a potential rush of foreclosures saturating supply once federal moratoriums are lifted? ‘Homes have been going up in value significantly over the last six to seven years, so that means is if someone is late on their mortgage and they have to go through the foreclosure process, they’ll just list their home, they’ll sell it on the open market, they’ll take all the revenue and pay off all the debts and liens, they’ll put a check in their pocket and then they’ll move on,’ he said.”

From Realtor.com. “The percentage of homeowners who are seriously behind on mortgage payments or in foreclosure was an astonishing 245% higher in February 2021 than it was in February 2020, according to Black Knight. Another looming problem: 5% of homeowners are in foreclosure or seriously delinquent, meaning that they haven’t made a mortgage payment in three months or more, according to a February report from the Urban Institute. That number includes people in forbearance.”

“‘The share of those who are significantly delinquent, so they’re more than 90 days behind on payments, is actually higher than the rate during the foreclosure crisis’ in the aughts, says Jung Hyun Choi, a senior research associate with the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center.”

“The metros with the highest percentage of homes that are ‘seriously underwater,’ which ATTOM defines as owing at least 25% more than what the home is worth, include Baton Rouge, LA; Syracuse, NY; Youngstown, OH; Toledo, OH; Scranton, PA; Cleveland, OH; Akron; OH; New Orleans; Dayton, OH; and Virginia Beach, VA.”

“Make no mistake: Homeowners will eventually have to make payments again. ‘We can’t have indefinite forbearance, and we can’t have an indefinite foreclosure moratorium,’ says Marina Walsh, vice president of industry analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘As things get back to some sense of normal, people have to move on.'”

From Patch New York. “Many landlords are holding out hope — and their apartments — that it won’t be for much longer. More than 50 percent of unrented apartments in Manhattan are being kept off the market, according to UrbanDigs data. The practice of holding onto unrented apartments is called ‘warehousing’ and it hit record levels during the pandemic. It’s a sign landlords are waiting for prices to go back up in their favor, said John Walkup, co-founder of UrbanDigs.”

“But it’s also a gamble for landlords that could actually drive prices down further and ultimately bottom out the market in New York City. Landlords started offering concessions — a free month of rent here, a waived parking fee there — to entice renters back, Walkup said. But with a glut of unrented apartments across the city, it was only a matter of time before rents dropped too, he said.”

“And drop they did. Asking rents dropped by 20 percent or more in Manhattan and Brooklyn, according to UrbanDigs data. The problem is landlords consider the prices unsustainable, especially if they’re locked into years-long leases, Walkup said. Off-market apartments are now just over 50 percent, UrbanDigs data shows. ‘The market was so saturated they were pulling things off basically as fast as they came back on,’ he said.”

The San Francisco Business Times in California. “‘Britannia est insula. Italia est paeninsula.’ The first two sentences of my freshman year Latin book were easy to understand: England is an island and Italy a peninsula, an almost island. After that, Latin quickly tumbled into incomprehensibility, but the thought stuck that islands are fully insulated, peninsulas a bit less so. Decades later I learned real estate’s two-word formula for monetizing insulation: supply constraint.”

“Islands — small ones anyway — are perfectly supply constrained; peninsulas can be nearly as limited. Until the virus struck a year ago, business islands like Manhattan and peninsulas like San Francisco’s were impregnable fortresses high-walled by supply constraint. Until the virus rolled up its siege wagons, smug landlords (such as ourselves) considered full occupancy a birthright and rents a stairway to heaven. In short, we had forgotten the other half of real estate’s magic formula: demand.”

“On April 7th, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that office rents in the city had dropped 14.7%. On the same day, the Wall Street Journal reported that ‘landlords are offering long-term leases at discounts up to 13% below rent rates reached in the first quarter of 2020.'”

“These numbers are so understated — so laughably wrong — that the articles should have come with Twitter warnings about their veracity. Why so off? The landlords failed to disclose how much they had to fork over to tenants to achieve even these reduced rents. Since we have no holdings in either San Francisco or Manhattan, I’ll focus on the Peninsula where we do, and where we know the real numbers first-hand.”

“Turning briefly to the Peninsula’s residential market. For-sale housing is robust and anything listed under $3 million is getting multiple offers. The apartment rental market is less cheery. Rents are off 20-25% and, for landlords unwilling or unable (because of, say, lender debt covenants or internal expectations) to lower rents down to market, vacancy rates are soaring. ‘The tide was all the way out on Dec. 15th, but it’s been creeping back ever since,’ said the manager of a sizeable apartment portfolio. ‘I’m expecting this summer to go gangbusters.'”

“Hopefully, it will. And hopefully, despite our lovely supply constraint, we won’t take demand for granted again. Islands and peninsulas may be better insulated than, say, Kansas, but they still get frostbite in a deep freeze.”

From Orillia Matters in Canada. “Senior economists with Canada’s top banks have floated several ideas to temper the market, such as the imposition of a speculation tax, banning blind bidding, a capital gains tax, and raising interest rates. There is already an initiative to bump up the stress test, first introduced in 2018, which sets out a formula attached to the affordability of a home purchase, capping the amount people can spend on a home proportionate to their income. A more stringent stress test will shrink the buyer pool which could, in turn shrink prices.”

“Chantal Godard, president of the Barrie and District Association of Realtors, points out that a home buyer with an annual income of $100,000 can now buy a $700,000 home with 20 per cent down. If implemented, that buyer under the new strategy would only be able to access $630,000 in financing through traditional institutions with 20 per cent down.”

“One scenario floated is to tax the increased value of the home. Currently, the primary residence is exempt from capital gains tax, which only applies to secondary dwellings. But Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte MP Doug Shipley thinks this approach would be a mistake. ‘A lot of people work their whole lives, their home is their investment. That’s what a lot of people plan on using as their retirement fund,’ he said.”

From Domain News in Australia. “Although overall Sydney house rents held at record levels of $550 per week in the March quarter, according to the latest Domain Rent Report, in a string of postcodes from the inner west to the city and eastern suburbs, rents have posted double-digit declines in the past year. Houses in Pyrmont – a once-thriving inner-city suburb due to office workers, students and tourists – recorded the biggest drop in asking rents, falling 20.1 per cent in the 12 months to March to a median of $695 per week for a house. It was followed by Balmain East, where asking rents for houses declined 18.2 per cent in the same period to $900 a week.”

“Melissa Ryan, who rents in Balmain East, said she had noticed rents falling in her neighbourhood, which would allow her to make significant savings and give her family options to stay in their suburb of choice. ‘We are in a position we can move into something smaller … and save $400 a week,’ Ms Ryan said. ‘It takes a little bit of the stress out of the market and allows you to live where you want to live. It means that the decline in the rental market provides the opportunity for people to save.'”

From Stuff New Zealand. “People were alarmed when my wife and I decided to move into a high-rise apartment sitting more than 25 storeys up from street level in central Auckland. ‘Isn’t that a bit too high?,’ was the most common reaction. But rents in Auckland’s CBD seemed to be plummeting. One place we viewed was a two-storey apartment with an upstairs room so large it looked more like an event space than a bedroom. The closet in it probably would have been rented out separately to a Wellington University student if it had been in the capital.”

“Agents say rents are down 20 per cent overall, but for many of the apartments we were looking at, the price drops were up to 40 per cent. It’s easy to explain this phenomenon away as a result of demand being cut off because the borders are shut, but the reality is that increasingly people in Auckland just have more options because more housing is being built. This is clear as you drive into the central city from the airport. Take roads through the suburbs rather than the motorway and you’ll see townhouses or mid-rise apartment blocks going up everywhere.”

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  2. ‘The share of those who are significantly delinquent, so they’re more than 90 days behind on payments, is actually higher than the rate during the foreclosure crisis’ in the aughts’

    Oh, that!

  3. ‘A lot of people work their whole lives, their home is their investment. That’s what a lot of people plan on using as their retirement fund’

    Dang Doug, that would mean they are fooked if some younger family doesn’t borrow that retirement, with interest.

      1. That’s for married filing jointly. I’m a single and I would only get $250K, despite the fact that I’m making payments myself. Definitely an unfairness that needs to be corrected. Congress probably hasn’t looked at it because there likely aren’t many singles — yet — who stand to gain more than $250K profit from a house. But that will change as more singles become loanowners and inflation pushes house prices higher. I wonder if I should write to my Congresscritter about this.

        1. It’s not an unfairness that needs to be corrected. One $250K real estate capital gain exclusion per adult in a household. What could be more fair?

          1. Come to think of it, renters should be entitled to a $250K capital gains exclusion for the investment option of their choice. Using massive tax subsidies to corral people into buying real estate is unfair.

          3. “What could be more fair?”

            A credit contraction that equals the past massive credit expansion. Not exactly “fair” but close enough.

          4. One $250K real estate capital gain exclusion per adult in a household.

            Married person: one exclusion per 1/2 house payment
            Single person: one exclusion per 1 house payment

            👎

          5. I’ve had a handful of clients convert their PR into a rental, sell within 3 years, use the §121 exclusion, and 1031 the remainder of the gain into another rental. It works out pretty nicely for them.

    3. The PTB tell us that debt can go higher and higher because of continuously lower interest rates and higher inflation. But what happens when interest rates hit zero? They have negative interest rates in some places but there are limits. What happens I wonder when a hard lower limit on interest rates are reached? Can they then rely on inflation to keep the debt growing?

      I remember Dalio’s talk of the “debt supercycle” and the “beautiful deleveraging.” Wall Street was able to successfully deleverage and continues to do so as debt is continuously sucked out of the system and onto the Fed’s balance sheet, replaced with MMT-style printed money. But the citizenry did not do that: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html

      I’ve heard that nothing bad will happen because none of the parties want anything bad to happen and they’re setting the rules of the game and the outcomes. However, the economy is a competition for resources; and the big players cannot help themselves but satiate their desire for profit – and power (money buys the ability to control people and project power). They control a lot of cash and thus control a lot of people but they’re just animals too, they poop and f•ck just like the rest. The smaller players have a lot less cash and control a lot fewer people but they also can’t help themselves as they seek assets with debt (forget building cash net worth, they’ll never get the opportunity because of their goals and wiring and the structure of the system).

      So there is a component of instinct driven drive. Will it ever lead to a “disorderly” outcome when the purchasing-power distribution system stops working for a critical mass of people?

  5. ‘the San Francisco Chronicle…the Wall Street Journal…These numbers are so understated — so laughably wrong — that the articles should have come with Twitter warnings about their veracity’

    Ahem…

    ‘Rents are off 20-25% and, for landlords unwilling or unable (because of, say, lender debt covenants’

    This is why NYC landlords are “holding” empty apartments too. The article goes on to show what a clusterfark the office market is too.

    1. “The landlords failed to disclose how much they had to fork over to tenants to achieve even these reduced rents.”

      Landlords forking money over to tenants?

      I like it…I love it…I want more of it.

  7. ‘We are in a position we can move into something smaller … and save $400 a week…It takes a little bit of the stress out of the market and allows you to live where you want to live. It means that the decline in the rental market provides the opportunity for people to save’

    That’s the spirit Melissa!

  8. ‘Agents say rents are down 20 per cent overall, but for many of the apartments we were looking at, the price drops were up to 40 per cent’

    Is that a lot?

    ‘It’s easy to explain this phenomenon away as a result of demand being cut off because the borders are shut, but the reality is that increasingly people in Auckland just have more options because more housing is being built’

    Isn’t New Zealand an island?

  9. From the first link:

    “The fed is going to need to start pushing mortgage interest rates higher to stave off inflation, but I don’t see that happening immediately,” he said. “So I would tell homeowners that there has never been a better market to sell a home in a predictable timeline… and buyers, you will never again in your lifetime find homes as affordable as they are today.”

    1. Sounds as though there’s never been a better time to buy.

      Funny thing is, everyone we know who is currently working on a real estate deal is preparing to offload a California shack and move eastward.

  10. Realtor Joe Manausa said:

    “…so that means is if someone is late on their mortgage and they have to go through the foreclosure process, they’ll just list their home, they’ll sell it on the open market, they’ll take all the revenue and pay off all the debts and liens, they’ll put a check in their pocket and then they’ll move on,’ he said….”

    Lot of assumptions here: Forever rising prices, infinite number of new buyers with infinite amounts of money.

    Good luck with that one, Joe Manausa

    1. ‘The metros with the highest percentage of homes that are ‘seriously underwater,’ which ATTOM defines as owing at least 25% more than what the home is worth, include Baton Rouge, LA; Syracuse, NY; Youngstown, OH; Toledo, OH; Scranton, PA; Cleveland, OH; Akron; OH; New Orleans; Dayton, OH; and Virginia Beach, VA’

      I’d bet you can find an article on every one of these cities this morning saying it’s red hotcakes.

      1. Youngstown, Toledo, Cleveland, Akron, Dayton are what globalists would consider economic success stories.

        Eviscerated manufacturing sector, middle class exodus, and a property tax death spiral.

        It’s the globalist way.

  11. Oh, you will.

    First chance you get.

    ““Hopefully, it will. And hopefully, despite our lovely supply constraint, we won’t take demand for granted again. Islands and peninsulas may be better insulated than, say, Kansas, but they still get frostbite in a deep freeze.””

  13. “rents have posted double-digit declines”

    Our outfit is ramping up on a $200million plus (australian dollar) project in Sydney. According to a guy in the group stateside that’s managing the project, our guys are renting new houses under $1000/month… entire neighborhoods are for sale in Sydney. All empty and prices plummeting.

      1. We really are living in a fiction economy. As some have said, lumber is piling up at the mills.

  15. “‘So all these experts saying ‘oh we’re going to see another bubble,’ well the last bubble we saw before the previous one was after the Great Depression,’ he said. ‘History says there is no housing bubble.’”

    History says realtors are liars.

  16. “If history is any indication, Joe Manausa says we are not currently in another housing bubble.

    Realtors are liars.

  18. Nobody elected Lord Fauci to be the tyrant king:

    “The U.S. will see a significant reduction in new coronavirus infections in the coming weeks, Dr. Scott Gottlieb predicted Monday on CNBC.

    “I think we’re going to start to see the pandemic roll over in the United States, in terms of cases coming down,” Gottlieb said in an interview on “Squawk Box.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/covid-cases-will-likely-fall-in-coming-weeks-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html

    Sen. Rand Paul, Rep. Jim Jordan, Gov. Ron DeSantis are standing up to unscientific medical tyranny. Meanwhile, the cuck province of Ontario is becoming the lockdown police state that Reddit can only dream of.

    1. province of Ontario

      On the bright side, the police in Ontario have politely declined the task of stopping people to ask them where they are going and why they aren’t home under their beds.

  20. I need a pep talk. I need you all to pleeeaaase talk me out of buying a house. I’ve been waiting for years to buy thinking the market will soften and its only climbed higher. I live in the Salt Lake City valley and the prices are skyrocketing like nothing I’ve ever seen. (I moved from So Cal March 2018 but didn’t buy right away because my husband had a health crisis. We’ve timed our previous 3 homes well. I waited to buy from 2007 and bought an incredible foreclosure in 2010). I know it’s the worst time to buy. I’m scared to buy but I’m scared not to buy. The competition is unreal, making it impossible to buy. Open houses swarming with people who are off in Rentals are hard to find and rental prices are climbing higher too. I was rejected Thursday for a SFH rental I applied for because there are waaay too many people trying to rent.

    Logic tells me the market will normalize hopefully by next fall… if a combination of these things happen:

    -Inventory rises
    -Interest rates rise (the FED is pumping the brakes on this one, if they weren’t manipulating things, the 30 yr int rate would probably already be above 4%… That would at least calm the market down. I told a realtor I want the rate to go to 6%. He looked at me with big eyes and said, “that would wreck everything.” That’s the idea… crater time!)
    -Builders over-build and add too much to supply (like last time in 2008)
    -Buyers pull back and revolt due to extremely high prices
    -Forebearance ends by July and the wave of foreclosures wash into the market (hopefully all at once, doesn’t seem likely though. The homes in foreclosure with a lot of equity that can sell hopefully will suddenly increase inventories though)
    -Schools and economies all reopen in WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, AZ (my theory is alot of people from those states moved to Utah/ID/others to put their kids in school because schools were shut down in those states. I don’t blame them. I would move too if I was in lock down for over a year with my kids trying to WFH and be teacher at the same time)
    -mass migration slows down or at least moving patterns shift away from the hottest markets to much cheaper states (maybe midwest)
    -more states like Virginia offer financial incentives to move to their state drawing buyer’s attention away from the West coast
    -a really big earthquake (I know, it’s a stretch…)
    -Companies offer much higher pay and housing assistance/incentives to attract employees back to WA, OR, CA, NY, etc…
    -WFH is reversed (my husband is a software engineer in defense and we think tech companies will start calling some staff back into the office and those willing to go into the office will get paid more and will get promoted more than those strictly working from home. If you’re unwilling to commute into the office you’ll be more susceptible to layoffs. And if you moved too far away from your company and can’t commute into the office, and you didn’t tell your employer you were moving out of the area, that might not work out in your favor and you could be moved up higher on the chopping block.)

    This is what I think about demand: 1) I think Covid pushed demand back since buyers froze and sellers pulled their homes off the market or sellers who would’ve sold in 2020 postponed until 2021. 2) Then the very low interest rates pulled all the demand forward creating a pressure cooker of too many buyers and no supply. 3) Then, the interest rates started spiking early 2021 which pulled even more demand/buyers forward into the market who are desperate not to miss out on the low rates. 4) (this one is obvious) Forebearance has locked up supply that would have naturally turned over on it’s own keeping supply at more normal supply levels creating shortages. So if all the demand was pushed into late 2020 and pulled into early 2021, when does the hangover set in?

    Things I’m hearing from realtors (at least some honest realtors):
    -The very low interest rate is a trap (causes prices to rise and causes buyers to over borrow and brings buyers into the market that would otherwise be waiting to save more down payment or take their time to make a wise decision)
    -These market conditions are a setup
    -Buyers are over borrowing and over-extending themselves again like in 2007
    -This market is dangerous for buyers. Multiple offers that go waaay above ask is putting buyers in a dangerous position to over buy and the competition causes buyers to make irrational sudden decisions they’ll regret later. Buyers don’t have time to think about, compare, do the math, etc before making the biggest purchase of their lifetime.
    -Buyers don’t realize the amount they’re borrowing needs to be paid off by retirement or at least in their lifetime. This objective is unrealistic for some buyers.
    -This won’t end well for native Utahn’s who won’t be able to sell and move up into to the next level. Utah companies don’t pay as well as other states

    Things I’ve been told by investor friends:
    -When the market goes up, it always goes down. Be patient and just wait.
    -The market typically drops faster on the way down but increases slowly over a long period of time when increasing on the way up.
    -Don’t buy. Prices are too high. When the market turns it will be sudden and it will drop hard and fast.
    -Watch NY and San Francisco, they lead the market patterns. Typically when these areas go down, it’s a ripple effect across the country and the surrounding states follow. (Except not this time, NY and San Fran softened and the rest of the country blew up.)
    -Watch Boise. It was the last city to rise and the first to fall during the last 2008 bubble. Isn’t that happening now? Prices in Boise are still increasing higher and faster than any other city in the US. So when will Boise pull back and prices start to fall?
    -My friends know I study the market closely. So they say, “Don’t buy now, do what you know.”
    -Utah’s higher end luxury market craters much harder (as much as 40% to 50% correction last time) than the lower end.

    Boots on the groun – this is what I’m seeing between Ogden to Provo:
    -price listings are insane. 4,000 sq ft gut jobs being listed for 1.5mil. These listings would’ve sat on the market for months and barely sold for 600K if they were lucky pre-covid. Most homes around the suburbs of Salt Lake sold between $120 to $180 (very nice homes at $180) per sq ft pre-covid. Now, everything is listed for $200+ per sq ft in the ghetto and exclusive areas. The greed is unbelievable!
    -last month, there were 1800 active listings between Ogden to Provo. Today there’s 3,000ish. In a normal year with only moderate price increases, the entire state of Utah will have anywhere between 7K to 12K active listing across the state throughout the year. Across the state of Utah today, active inventory of every type is roughly between 6,500 to 7,200 (it’s a little hard to guage using zillow) So supply is down from a normal year but definitely increasing.
    -last week I saw a lot of price drops, especially way out on the edge of town. Most price drops were on homes that’ve only been on the market for one to two weeks which is considered stale in this market.
    -last week there were a lot more homes come “back on market” probably due to buyer’s remorse, or cancelations due to impulsive decisions, maybe because the payment math won’t work?…
    -I’m seeing more listing going pending that say “accepting backup offers.” Does this mean there’s only one offer on the table and that one single offer is contingent? (But, but, but red hotcakes everywhere? Get ’em while they’re HOT!) Maybe realtors are accepting as many backup offers as possible, doesn’t that mean more work though? Yuck. Not more work…
    -I’m seeing homes listed with no sign posted in the front yard (this feeds into the “shortage” narrative)
    -I’m seeing price drops on lots too, which I haven’t seen at all this year

    What do these new trends that I’m seeing mean? (Maybe it’s the higher interest rate or maybe it’s too early to tell?) Why am I seeing these changes in the market during the hottest time of the year to sell and buy? Are realtors making quicker price adjustments to get ahead of something coming/a tipping point?

    What are you noticing in your city? Is anyone else noticing similar trends or patterns in your area?

    My mechanic runs a U-haul truck rental on his lot so I always ask him where people are moving from and to. He tells me the majority of people are moving from CA, OR, and WA to Utah. But then he tells me the majority of Utahn’s are moving to CA, OR, and WA to go get those high paying jobs that Ex-Californians are leaving behind. He says the migration between these states is about a 50/50 split. That’s just one snap shot though…

    When will NY and San Fran lead again?? How is this going to play out? What are your theories of when this hysteria cycle ends or at least slows down? Is real inflation coming fast and shouldn’t I own a home before inflation rises more?

    My favorite thing I heard at the end of March was this: I met a couple in their 30’s at T-Mobile. I overheard them say they moved here from California so I asked from where? They said, “Sonora”. Then they said they hate Utah. They moved here in October, bought a house in November and paid a higher price than the home they sold in California. He took a much lower paying job in Utah and nothing has gone right for them since moving to Utah. Their car broke down so they had to buy a new car which they said cars are much more expensive in Utah (This is true. Shortages? I even drove to Los Angeles in October to buy a Lincoln Continetal because they’re so much cheaper down in CA compared to Utah.) Anyway, they hated Utah so they sold their new house in March, packed up their crap, he got a much higher paying job back in Sonora, and they were moving back to CA. They said they will rent for 6 months back in CA until the wave of foreclosures wash in. This makes me wonder how many people will regret moving away from their homes and jobs?

    1. Holy fook dude…long ass post basically answering your own questions plus a few troll talking points.

      If you are serious. Yep, we are in a big azz housing bubble.

      When will it go boom? Depends on mucho.

        1. I enjoyed your post and anecdotes. The simple answer is none of us know whats going to happen. We’ve been waiting for a crash for more than a decade and we’re still waiting. I’m not buying now but as you said, many are. Whoever knows if/when this will change will be a wealthy individual indeed

    2. Unless you plan on being Mormon Im not sure Utah is the right answer for you….Buying anything right now is senseless imo. I would include cars in that

    3. commuting to NYC could easily be $400-500 a month just for the hour ride from say CT plus the subway ride plus walking to the office, and then back at night not to mention a 2nd or 3rd car “a station car” plus parking and insurance, it would take a lot more then $1000 a month to get people to come back

      WFH is reversed (my husband is a software engineer in defense and we think tech companies will start calling some staff back into the office and those willing to go into the office will get paid more and will get promoted more than those strictly working from home.

    4. Cars are so expensive in Utah because the state government and two families have a cartel restricting who can legally sell a vehicle in the state.

      Free Market Capitalism with Utah Characteristics.

      Utah is the white collar fraud capital of the United States. Let that sink in before considering a deal with a realtor, because as we all know, realtors are liars, and as Ben shows us daily the industry is filled with fraud.

    5. “…my husband had a health crisis.”

      Like a sports injury, or a chronic condition?

      “I’m scared to buy but I’m scared not to buy.”

      Looking to hedge anticipated asset inflation?

      “…my husband is a software engineer…”

      And your skill set? Do you have a STEM degree?

      “Logic tells me the market will normalize…”

      We haven’t had a “rational market” for years.

      They said, “Sonora”.

      Sonora, CA is up in the mountains well East of Modesto, CA. The best job up there is probably the Postal Carrier.

      ***

      Where’s your husband’s employer’s office located? Seems like you need to look near there. And his age? If he’s 60-yrs old, a 30-yr mortgage isn’t going to cut it. Make pragmatic decisions.

      You didn’t mention your savings from the previous home sales. Do you have enough to put down and get a lower monthly payment?

      You need to focus on your household income, IMHO.

    6. Over the last 20 years, with <20% down payment the norm we have learned that people can't afford to sell for less than they paid unless it is a foreclosure, short sale, etc.

      A breakdown in underwriting is a big reason prices keep going up.

      1. A breakdown in underwriting with no risk being assessed is what I think is the major cause of these bubbles. Easy lending was the cause of the rise of stocks in the 20’s, and same now with real estate.

        All the lesson that the US learned in the pass have been discarded for this insanity .

    7. Your logic is strong, but your nesting instinct is stronger. Work on pushing off that nesting instinct.

      1. She found her way here so she’s doing better than most.

        Hang in there Kare Bear! I know it’s hard.

        1. I’ve been reading this blog daily for years. I just stay quiet. I know too much about what’s really going on in housing because of what I’ve learned here. I always try to talk about market conditions with realtors at showings and open houses to get their insight. I’ve been told multiple times by realtors that no buyers ask about what’s really going on under the surface of what the media is telling everyone to believe.

          I’m in a quandary- feeling homeless and seriously foolish about considering to buy right now.

      2. I do feel bad for my kids that they aren’t anchored and settled in their own home. We are renting a furnished rental so we only have clothes, food and toys. We haven’t seen most of our belongings since Nov 2016 which is being stored in Tucson. Weird life… it’s been interesting to find out that I’m not attached to or miss our belongings but my husband is. He especially wants his piano – fun hobby so I get. We bought a Costco keyboard to keep him happy.

        1. my kids that they aren’t anchored and settled in their own home

          I raised four. I moved for work plenty of times while the kids were growing up. A house isn’t their anchor, you are. When they are grown, they won’t accuse you of abusing them if you avoid financial suicide. They’ll ask you to loan them some of the pile of cash you’ve saved.

    8. You already know it’s a giant mania, as you’ve said in detail. You know it will end badly. You are afraid you’ll miss it?

      Stick with what you know, not what you fear.

    9. Schools and economies all reopen in WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, AZ (my theory is alot of people from those states moved to Utah/ID/others to put their kids in school because schools were shut down in those states.

      Actually, schools have been open in most of Colorado for quite a while.

    10. “I need you all to pleeeaaase talk me out of buying a house.”

      Per my inlaws, who live north of SLC and don’t normally tune in to such matters, Utah is in a full blown housing mania.

      Try not to let your FOMO tempt you to catch yourself a falling knife.

    11. Let’s see, in my area (MA/Boston) all I hear/read is “white hot real estate boom, unprecedented spring market, pent-up demand, desperate buyers waiving inspections, bidding wars, demand is soaring, demand is high but few owners are selling, historic low inventory, houses selling well above asking price, it’s a bubble, it’s not a bubble, traffic jams at open houses” et cetera. Why on earth would anyone – unless they had no other choice – want to buy property during such madness?

      I do not have the stomach for it so I plan to rent for another year and then re-assess. When people around here inquire about my housing plans (as being a renter I’m forced to explain myself) I sometimes respond, “Oh, I’m waiting until you need a million just to get in.”

      2. Ditto Missoula and Bozeman.

        Oh how I miss the days when Montana, Idaho and Utah were these remote places no one wanted to move to. 1970s.

        Sure made life easy.

    12. “What are you noticing in your city? Is anyone else noticing similar trends or patterns in your area?”
      yea hardly any inventory and bidding wars on home sales
      I read today that Coinbase is worth more than BP oil just like in 1999 I read JDSU was worth more than Boeing.
      I also hear people are selling and renting waiting for a crash I did that in 2006.
      As incredible as it seems it looks like history repeats and nothing is learned.

    13. To give you an idea of the red hotcakes in my neighborhood: There is 3/2 ranch for sale. It’s a reverse mortgage short sale. The house has no garage. It’s on 0.15 acres, which is a little below average for this area. It has mold on almost all of its walls and the ceiling. The kitchen is from ~1965 and probably not functional. The “finished” basement has 2 inches of muddy water in it. It needs a total gut job and major foundation work — likely $100K+ of work just to pass any inspection. IMO it’s a teardown.

      After 3 months on the market, this POS just went pending for $40K more than I paid for my larger and intact house in 2012. This is NUTS.

  21. I hate this mob justice where the facts don’t matter on cases, but its the spin narrative . If the Jury has to worry about the Mob , how is that not prejudice in a trial?
    And , all the peaceful rioters that have committed crimes somehow get off because of a acceptance of this unequal justice. Its a breakdown of law and order, and its encouraging race wars.

    Many innocent people died as a result of the peaceful protests not to mention all the looting and property damage. And old Maxine Waters is out there encouraging this Mob Justice.

    I have never seen Media and Congress persons like Waters encourage this lawlessness .

    Lock downs and people wearing masks and untested new technology vaccines being pushed on the public, while information is censored so that people can’t really make a informed choice, and they don’t get their freedom unless they comply with a medical procedure that wasn’t approved by FDA, because a emergency was declared.
    And they got the emergency Pandemic declared based on inaccurate tests and faulty projections on how many people were going to die, as well as a narrative that all these deaths were by Covid. And the fact that the regular flu just vanished is not very believable.

    So, next on the agenda is Climate Change narratives, along with the Covid, along with the racist narratives ,for what objectives?

    Its all just a bunch of fraud to me to achieve agendas that are insane .

    1. So, next on the agenda is Climate Change narratives, along with the Covid, along with the racist narratives ,for what objectives?

      Power and control.

      Was reading that there are allegedly 900 Covid virus variants in Brazil. The world is going to be locked down for a very, very long time (if you’re thinking of international travel, other than to Mexico, you can forget it), and I expect that the FedGov will try at some point to lock the whole country down too.

      1. (if you’re thinking of international travel, other than to Mexico, you can forget it),
        In Colorado:
        Why do you say that everything is going to close?
        I am planning on going to Panama in June. It is open now with only a negative PCR test. Am I missing something?

        1. There are a few exceptions that won’t close because they need the tourist dollars. But a lot of countries are locked down tight, even though their infection rates are low.

    2. “mob justice”

      Star Tribune (4/19/2021):

      “Thousands of armed Guard members in fatigues are stationed on street corners — in front of libraries, laundromats, pharmacies, restaurants, office buildings and grocery stores. Businesses have boarded up windows, public buildings are surrounded by razor wire and for several nights last week curfews forced Twin Cities residents indoors after dark.

      Stung by criticism of the response to riots last spring, when more than 1,000 buildings and businesses were damaged, Gov. Tim Walz, Mayor Jacob Frey and other leaders have opted for a massive presence to maintain law and order.

      Some residents and business owners say the militarization makes them feel more secure. Others fear it is suppressing the voices of those seeking criminal justice reform in the wake of George Floyd’s death at the hands of Minneapolis police.”

      https://www.startribune.com/as-chauvin-verdict-looms-military-presence-in-twin-cities-unsettles-some-reassures-others/600047529/

      My prediction for Minneapolis is that if Chauvin is found guilty, many pairs of shoes will be stolen. And if he is acquitted, many pairs of shoes will be stolen.

      “They’re not sending their best” — DJT

      1. My prediction for Minneapolis is that if Chauvin is found guilty, many pairs of shoes will be stolen. And if he is acquitted, many pairs of shoes will be stolen.

        Being Footlocker’s CEO must be a barrel of fun.

        1. The most expensive footwear I have ever owned are my Black Diamond alpine / touring ski boots. They retailed for $700 (me, pay retail?) but with markdown and a coupon I only paid $400.

          Shoe thieves are people who grow up without fathers, people who grow up in homes without books, where learning and literacy are never encouraged. And who grow up in municipalities where the property taxes paid by loanowners finance an education system that functions as little more than a free babysitter and welfare meals program.

          “They’re not sending their best”

          1. You’d think that Footlocker management might consider removing most, if not all, inventory from stores in “central” locations. Of course, they might not, out of fear of being called raycis.

    3. “If the Jury has to worry about the Mob , how is that not prejudice in a trial?”

      Derek Chauvin was not agitated while holding down George Floyd; just another day in ‘da hood. “I can’t breathe” might have been a legitimate call, but realize that every one of these suspects goes into their belly-aching Fred Sanford skit when they’re arrested, especially if they have “priors” or outstanding warrants.

      My money is on the 2nd degree manslaughter charge.

      1. I didn’t watch the trial, so I don’t know, but I just don’t think mobs ready to burn and loot if they don’t get the conviction they want is the way Justice should work.

        1. I just don’t think mobs ready to burn and loot if they don’t get the conviction they want is the way Justice should work.
          Kind of reminds me of the OJ Simpson trial. Load vocal threats of Riots if O.J was convicted. Of course O.J lost the civil case but no one cared about that.

      2. anybody remember school yard bully fights? the go to response was I cant breathe, so you can get up and punch hm in the nutzs or face and escape.

      3. Murder 2.

        Guaranteed appeal and it gets tossed.

        Meanwhile, Maxeen Warter and her mob of paid street thugs are ready to destroy in the event of not guilty.

        Every LE officer is watching this. But you won’t see them torching buildings, assaulting people and looting stores though.

    4. Proj. Veritas caught the future new fear factor, climate change on video. I agree with all that you listed.
      The objective? De-population and the movement of lower IQ population that are easier to control.
      Check out iceagefarmer on bitchute. Food supply is being systematically ruined.

    1. Revenue-less biotech

      Not uncommon because of capital intensive nature. Acquisition typically precedes revenues. Probably one of the riskiest investments.

      1. I pity the fools who buy that stock. I’m not sure why a revenue-less company would dare go public, other than to use idiots’ money to fund their sales-less unicorn (but with climbing wall) for a few more years. This is just one more sign we are in complete financial la-la land.

  23. And these Globalist Monopolies have no loyalty to the US. They never swore to uphold a Constitution, like Government is suppose to. The Monopolies gig is to get Government to go against constitutional protections , so the Monopolies can dictate Government policy .

    The Monopolies want to go against Constitutional protections, have open borders, Medical Tyranny, go after first and second amendments for their top down control of world populations.

    They are criminal, they are fraudulent , they are a insurrection of the worse kind. They use Communist theory as a means to divide and conquer. They donate to the Commie rioters on the street as their army to attack the culture.

    I think they are trying to start race wars. All the fake narratives are designed to accomplish this power grab. They even promote a attack on at least 50% of the Citizens they view as being in opposition to their takeover and agenda to transform the US into their vision with their Puppets like Biden, that they criminally rigged the election to put that Traitor in power.

    The Swamp was even worse than could ever be imagined in DC.
    Don’t know how this situation is going to turn out, but I can’t imagine people wanting to eat bugs for instance, or constantly being locked down, or jabbed all the time, or being attacked by Commie rioters, or being canceled, or paying taxes for programs that don’t benefit the Citizens.

    I guess all damage can be reversed, if a fair election can be obtained. Otherwise , a Civil War might take place. Michael Savage thinks we are already in a Civil War and that its already started.

  25. …..”900 variants”

    Ok ,I heard one Doctor say that usually there isn’t more than a 3% difference with these mutations in which the body usually very easy kills the mutation if it killed the original strain.

    Some of these bugs don’t mutate hardly at all. But the virus that’s in the cold family with Covid 19 being in that strain does mutate.But, that Dr. said that you would have to get a extreme mutation for the body to not recognize the change to the original strain based on natural immunity.

    What’s odd to me is they can name every so called mutation by even geographic location, but they can’t even determine where the darn virus started.

    But no doubt it was predicted that the mutant strain attack was going to be the next phase of the never ending invisible enemy attack, and we are back to square one again, ( I hope not).

    When Congress asks Dr Fauci questions, the answers aren’t really answers. Something very wrong here .

    1. I know a guy who got the second “jab” on Saturday. He had to call in sick today. He doesn’t seem to be improving.

      2. I had no discomfort at all. Does that mean I already had the CCP virus, or that they gave me distilled water? It is odd that “cases” do not go down when half the population has had shots already. Some places they go up. This is why we can’t “know” anything.

        1. From what I’ve heard, the sick people may have had a case of COVID in the past and the sickness is an overactive immune system.

          2. The thing is if your trying to conquer over a disease, don’t cause more harm by the cure than the disease itself. Don’t try to normalize to many side effects with Pharmacy drugs or vaccines.

            If the so called cure puts to many people at risk, with this one size fits all pharmaceutical approach, than go back to the drawing board.

            And above all else, don’t put profit above all when it comes to life and death matters. Its like a Big Company that pollutes a lake rationalizing that crime .

          3. It’s just a speculative theory; nothing is known, not anything they’re telling us. There is practically NO science in the news right now. They can’t be risking giving out facts and let us make a decision.
            Every article I’ve looked up has the same ending: It’s your duty to get any shot that you can, and you still have to wear a mask and social distance. THEY are making the decisions.

          6. The typical doctor would never admit they know nothing about how vaccines work or how the immune system operates. Yet we are not supposed to question the effectiveness or safety of a treatment rushed into widespread use, when it can take years for the FDA to approve anything else.

          7. Don’t try to normalize to many side effects with Pharmacy drugs or vaccines.

            One of my bigger pet peeves about this whole thing. And, if you can’t already tell, I have many. If the effects were intended, benign or beneficial, they wouldn’t be classified as side effects or adverse events. It’s like claiming the cognitive impairment I experienced with the antibiotic Bactrim meant that it was working. Insane!

    1. “One of my bigger pet peeves about this whole thing.”

      One of my big pet peeves also. Somehow 225 thousand deaths per year in US as a direct result of adverse reactions to pharmaceutical drugs, that the industry openly admits to, has been normalized as being ok. NOT OK.

      And when they list all the horrible side effects in Pharmacy Commercials, they act like the patient is suppose to know what their risk is by the fact that they put the disclaimer of risk. But, most of the commercial is showing a healed person running around enjoying life to the max.

      And than the pressure the Pharmacy industry puts on Doctors to prescribe meds as the Standard of Care for any given complaint. It really seems to me that the Doctors have been put under a dictorship by Big Pharmacy, when they might not agree with this. So, if you might get pulled in by the Medical Board if you don’t push the Pharmacy Standard of care, than the Doctors are compromised by this.

      I know some Doctors try to get around it as best they can ,but ,when I was young Doctors had more discretion to treat as they saw fit.
      And one of the worse things that ever happened is when Government took the liability from Vaccine damage from Big Pharmacy. Like what could go wrong with that.

      I’m not trying to take away from any of the good advancements in the Medical Industry in the last 100 years, but there is a big elephant in the room that isn’t being addressed. And Government doesn’t want to address it, even wanting to be enforcement entities for Big Pharmacy.

      To tell you the truth I have been afraid of this happening as I saw Medical Care morph into Big Pharmacy as the years have rolled by, along with Communist Medical Care.

      Now this unjustified Pandemic of lock downs , masks, and fear mongering and forced Vaccines.
      Vaccines for segments of population who aren’t at risk of the disease.
      I think the public is starting to come out of the fear and starting to value life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness verses fear of death by a cold virus.

    1. Radars,
      Lots of good tapes going down in what you posted.
      I liked the one about the Nuremberg trails where the Nazi confessed that you can get people to do anything by using fear .

      And the fear mongering of Covid 19 was used to launched this Emergency Pandemic with censorship of dispute to the Narratives.

  29. Portland, OR Housing Prices Crater 18% As Industry Scrambles To Conceal Collapsing Demand And Plunging Prices Across The US

    https://www.movoto.com/or/97203/market-trends/

    As one Portland broker stated, “Homeowners should slam their fingers in the door to detract from the eternal financial pain they’re about to experience as prices continue to plummet.”

  30. Today is Tuesday, April 20th and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    The 2020 election was stolen.

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