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The Crazy Froth In The Market Is Ending

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Due to the rising cost of building, there may come a ‘day of reckoning.’ When a person pays $400,000 for a house that not much earlier was $300,000, ‘you’re going to be upside down from Day One,’ meaning the house will cost more than it is worth, said Steve Magee, owner of Croft Windows and Doors in Magnolia, which sells its products around the country. One person, who asked not to be identified, said that there seems to be a lag between rapidly increasing house prices and ‘comparables’ that appraisers rely on.”

“A legal tussle between China Vanke and its partner in a Manhattan real estate project took a dramatic turn this week as their creditor, Chinese banking giant ICBC, moved to foreclose on the joint venture’s midtown high-rise. By the time 100 East 53rd Street was topped out, the luxury segment in New York City housing had come to be seen as overbuilt. The development struggled to attract buyers. The foreclosure move is the latest chapter in a seven-year development saga for Vanke’s second-ever investment in the US, which spans a New York luxury condo boom and bust, as well as a since-stoppered wave of Chinese purchases of American homes.”

“The number of closed sales of homes continued to rise in March from last month, according to The Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. For single-family homes in February, there were 2,779 closed sales on single-family homes and 3,393 new listings, while this month jumped to 3,385 closed sales and 5,804 new listings.”

“Steven Seagal is once again shooting for a sale in the Arizona desert, listing his 12-acre compound outside Scottsdale for $3.4 million. The martial artist-turned-actor bought the property for $3.5 million in 2010 and has offered it up multiple times in the last few years, most recently for $3.775 million in 2019.”

“Scott Russell of Engel & Völkers Oakville shared with STOREYS that his team of advisors is reporting they are seeing fewer buyers come out on offer night — a major shift from the high-tension, FOMO situation seen happening recently throughout the province and the rest of the country. Russel explained to STOREYS that while they’re used to seeing properties receive between 15 and 25 offers on offer night, there are now ‘two, three, maybe four people coming to the table instead.'”

“According to Anita Springate-Renaud of Engel & Volkers Toronto Central (Don Mills and Yorkville), the trend is also happening in Toronto and, reportedly, fewer buyers are coming out. ‘People are not interested in getting into that bidding war,’ she says, pointing to a recent example of a house for sale in Barrie, Ont. ‘They held off on offers and nobody came.'”

“There are so many people lining up to bid on a single property in Burnaby that many people are taking ‘bizarre risks,’ according to a local real estate agent who spoke to me. ‘I’m always shocked that people are willing to agree to not have an inspection done when bidding,’ the agent said. ‘It’s a lot of money to take that kind of risk.'”

“Kush Panatch, president of residential developer Panatch Group, told Western Investor that the market exuberance of the last 10 months, characterized by multiple offers and homes selling for well over the asking price, was based largely on buyers’ psychological fear of missing out. ‘I saw some very intelligent people make less-than-stellar decisions,’ Panatch said, who noted he has seen similar wild, short swings in the market half a dozen times through his 30 years in Metro Vancouver real estate.”

“The fear of missing out will end soon, he predicted.’ You have already missed out,’ said Panatch. He believes Metro Vancouver sales are now cycling into a ‘gentle market downturn’ that will likely continue for some months. ‘This is not a market correction, but the crazy froth in the market is ending,’ he added.”

“The easing of Covid restrictions has caused a boom in an already busy buyers market, but in Bushey homeowners are struggling to sell houses. In fact according to Rightmove, Bushey ranks seventh in the top 10 buyers’ market areas – where buyers are perceived to have an advantage because there is seemingly more demand in the area than supply. Since the start of the last year there were 31.8 per cent of properties for sale in Bushey. To compare, Newquay is the highest buyers’ market area with 82 per cent of properties for sale in the area.”

“Australia’s $40 billion international education sector has been devastated, with property landlords, small and institutional, headlining those most severely impacted. Landlords near universities in Melbourne and Sydney have been the hardest hit. Woeful resales by property investors have not surprisingly shown up, in what was already a seriously challenged sector. I spotted a $122,500 studio apartment in a Box Hill student accommodation complex. It reflected a 32 per cent price decline for the 17sqm studio space, which had previously traded at $182,000 in 2009.”

“Rental prices for apartments in Melbourne’s inner suburbs have plummeted by up to 29 per cent in the year to March. Sarah Johnson is one of many Melburnians who have taken advantage of falling rents in the inner city over the past 12 months. In September last year, Ms Johnson moved out of her North Melbourne share house and into a spacious two-bedroom apartment in West Melbourne with her partner.”

“‘We found this apartment in West Melbourne, which had a second bedroom or study for us to work from, and we asked for a discount on the advertised rent, which had already been reduced,’ she said. ‘It had been sitting empty for some time and when it was originally advertised, they were asking an extra $500 a month. Without those reductions, we would never have considered renting a place like this.'”

This Post Has 104 Comments
  1. ‘we asked for a discount on the advertised rent, which had already been reduced’

    That’s the spirit!

  2. ‘listing his 12-acre compound outside Scottsdale for $3.4 million. The martial artist-turned-actor bought the property for $3.5 million in 2010’

    Now that’s some red hotcakes right there. And 2010 was definitely a down year among many in Scottsdale.

    1. “…listing his 12-acre compound outside Scottsdale for $3.4 million….”

      Another disconnect between a show biz personality and 3rd grade math.

      But I’m sure he had some great parties!

    2. More pix:

      That looks like a COOL house. Normal-looking living spaces, cozy party spaces, realistic bedrooms, walks and pathways, decent pool and hot tub, guest house which appears to be attached to the main house, rugged decor which matches. If I had the money I’d buy this before any of those schlubby $2M houses in Poway. Seems like a nice place for a minor celebrity, the kind who has $20M and pulls $1M/yr for a few jobs. (Seagal himself is worth $16M.)

      1. That kitchen is rather plain and lacking counter space. A catering service with the meals prepared elsewhere would be needed for any real parties.

        1. The plain-looking kitchen is in the guest house. The kitchen in the main house has more counterspace and a nice island. Yeah, this place is meant for more intimate parties, like 20-25 people. And most real parties are catered anyway. It’s only a $3.5 million house, so IMO the spaces are well-proportioned for that price.

  3. The great and wise Martin Armstrong posted a blog post on real estate:

    For example, locking people down and causing them to lose jobs has resulted in a sharp rise in violence. Not just mass shootings, but all sorts of conflicts from domestic disputes to outright feuds. Cities, such as Philadelphia and New York, have sections in which the police have totally lost control. It is debatable if they will ever be able to restore civility to these regions. While Fauci claims to ignore the Constitutional violations, his agenda in helping Gates and Schwab is more than simply preparing society for the Great Reset. He is furthering the collapse of urban civility and this trend is part of what is driving this index.

    I would expect to see this escalate and if we make a new high on this index and close above last year’s high, single-family homes outside of urban centers will rise sharply into 2023.

    1. Nonsense. People love to live in defund zones and get yelled at while eating dinner for not conforming. It’s a dream to live in the cities.

  4. ‘For single-family homes in February, there were 2,779 closed sales on single-family homes and 3,393 new listings, while this month jumped to 3,385 closed sales and 5,804 new listings’

    These aren’t airboxes, which are down over 20% in price, UHS now admits. So where did these shacks come from? Is it Harry Potter! Why no, they were there all along!

    Shortage is just a word. The REIC uses words to trick weak minded people into stupid decisions. There never was nor has been a shortage of housing anywhere on the planet. You can argue about what something should cost, but scarcity and urgency are the tools of scoundrels.

    1. Speaking of REIC propaganda:

      ‘the luxury segment in New York City housing had come to be seen as overbuilt. The development struggled to attract buyers. The foreclosure move is the latest chapter in a seven-year development saga for Vanke’s second-ever investment in the US, which spans a New York luxury condo boom and bust, as well as a since-stoppered wave of Chinese purchases of American homes’

      Remember when these REIC a$$ hats went on day and night about the Chinese idiots pouring into the shack market. Wa happened UHS?

      They just dropped it like a hot potato and moved on to the next scam narrative. And those buyers are fooked! I tells ya. Funny how the red hotcakes didn’t keep these guys out of foreclosure.

      1. Yeah. I just used it on a car salesmen who called to follow up on a test drive. He went silent for 10 seconds and then stuttered profusely. Perfect timing! 😂👍

  5. ‘When a person pays $400,000 for a house that not much earlier was $300,000, ‘you’re going to be upside down from Day One’

    Lot’s of newly minted FB’s out there. The fact is shacks should never ever go up this fast. Wages didn’t: we’re in a recession. So if it’s not a statistical mirage, there must be widespread mortgage and appraisal fraud.

    Unpossible you say?

    March 26, 2020

    “As America heads into a deep recession, the $11 trillion residential-mortgage market is in crisis. Investors who buy home loans packaged into bonds are dumping even those with federal backing because of panic that millions might not make their payments. Yet one risky sector had started to show cracks long before the coronavirus pandemic sparked the worst financial meltdown in 12 years: the federal government’s largest affordable-housing program, whose lenient terms are geared toward marginal borrowers.”

    “As real estate prices soared in recent years, working-class adults everywhere have increasingly relied on mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration — and U.S. taxpayers. Since 2007, the FHA’s portfolio has tripled in value to more than $1.2 trillion, almost 11% of the market. While private lenders make these loans, they are packaged into Ginnie Mae bonds, common in mutual funds and pensions.”

    “Before Covid-19 started roiling China, a November FHA report found that 27% of borrowers last year spent more than half their incomes on debt, a level it describes as ‘unprecedented.’ The share of FHA loans souring in their first six months has doubled over the last three years to almost 1%.”

    “Not long ago, Alex Castillo drove his shiny black Infiniti SUV through an office park north of the San Antonio airport, along a busy seven-mile stretch of highway that loan officers call ‘Mortgage Row’ because of its abundance of small independent mortgage companies that dominate FHA lending. Castillo, who has the words ‘The Dream Starts Here’ stitched into his jacket, works for Pennsylvania-based American Residential Lending. Oddly, amid the pandemic, his business is booming. His customers locked in FHA mortgages after interest rates plunged this month — adding to federally backed mortgage debt.”

    “‘If the government tells me you’re good enough to get a loan, I have to trust and believe in the government,’ Castillo said. ‘Then we just hope and pray that the client doesn’t get foreclosed on.’”

    “In downtown San Antonio, scores of investors stood on a parched lawn beside the city’s historic granite-and-red-sandstone courthouse. It was the first Tuesday of February, the day of the foreclosure auction. Matt Badders, a San Antonio lawyer who represents lenders, auctioned off two houses. The failed mortgages remind him of the run-up to the financial crisis 12 years ago, when lending to customers with spotty credit nearly brought down the world’s financial system. ‘We’re almost back to 2007, when mortgage originators are waking people up on park benches, saying sign here,’ Badders said.”

    “At the auction, the crowd bid on 338 homes, a third with FHA mortgages, according to Roddy’s Foreclosure Listing Service. One house had dual master bedrooms, a game room and granite kitchen counters. It sold for $202,000 — $52,000 less than the homeowner borrowed only two years ago. The taxpayer-backed FHA insurance fund will take a loss.”

    “Dave Stevens, FHA commissioner under President Barack Obama and former chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said a recession will expose hidden risks in home lending. ‘This should be an alarm bell to policymakers,’ Stevens said. ‘Sometimes you get blinded by a good economy and suddenly look at it and see a bubble of defaults coming.’”

    “The federal government has decided it doesn’t want to pursue — and has asked a judge to dismiss — a lawsuit against Utah-based Academy Mortgage Corp. The judge refused. The suit claims the company’s staff would repeatedly feed information into an automated federal underwriting system, manipulating it until the computer gave the green light. ‘Decline is a curse word,’ Plaintiff Gwen Thrower, a former underwriter, quoted a manager as saying. ‘We don’t use it.’”

    1. “As America heads into a deep recession, the $11 trillion residential-mortgage market is in crisis.”

      That’s because these home owners have extracted their equity to buy boats, cars, trucks and vacations. In California, the HELOC [is] the economy.

      1. And it’s the poorest state in the union, has been for many years. Housing bubbles make you poor and then they pop.

        1. Everyone in the housing business [knows] that when homeowner’s values go upside-down they stop making their payments. With the home’s equity being regularly extracted all it takes is for the economy to sneeze and the talking heads are summoned for a round table meeting.

  6. This is a pearl clutching article.

    Washington Post — Should I wear a mask outside? Experts weigh in on scenarios (4/22/2021):

    OOOH, Experts. Mommy Fauci says no outdoor recess today 🙁

      1. Glad the CDC finally got rid of the hygiene theatre and said that COVID doesn’t spread on surfaces. No need to scrub everything raw. And I got tired of airlines bragging about sanitizing seats when people were breathing on each other from 6 inches away for hours on end. I no longer quarantine my mail anyway, since the postal workers have been vaxxed.

        CDC committee potential vote on J&J at 5 pm today. I hope they let J&J off with a warning.

        The only times I’ve worn a mask outside is when I was buying plants at a nursery, and once time when I was walking on some crowded sidewalks. I do carry one in my pocket. No biggie.

        1. let J&J off with a warning.

          A warning against causing any more blood clots?

          the CDC finally got rid of the hygiene theatre


          1. causing any more blood clots

            New VAERS reports:

            5mo baby died from thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) after mom got second dose of Pfizer vaccine. Report notes no new exposures aside from mother’s vaccination. Brutal. Mom will feel guilty every day for the rest of her life.

            15yo had heart attack after Moderna vaccine. Report submitted by PICU attending.

        2. since the postal workers have been vaxxed

          You assume the jabs stop infection and transmission.

          “Prevention of infection is not a criterion for success for any of these vaccines. In fact, their endpoints all require confirmed infections and all those they will include in the analysis for success, the only difference being the severity of symptoms between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Measuring differences amongst only those infected by SARS-CoV-2 underscores the implicit conclusion that the vaccines are not expected to prevent infection, only modify symptoms of those infected.”

  7. Real Journalists.

    MSNBC guest suggests Ma’Khia Bryant was shot for ‘not being perfect,’ having a ‘bad day’ (4/22/2021):

    Video from another site that my browser ad-blocker has blocked 32 ads from loading on shows this innocent child screaming “I’m Gonna Stab the F*ck Out of You, Bitch!”

    Note to self: do not buy house in or pay property taxes to sh*thole city. Columbus used to be a nice place to live. I predict that at least $10 million of Columbus tax revenue will be awarded to the fambly of this 250 pound innocent baby for having a bad day 🙁

      1. I just get really mouthy. I put in a couple bad comments on YouTube yesterday and today. I get slammed for it every time.

      2. Cincinnati Enquirer — Cincinnati police charge 13-year-old girl in stabbing death of another girl, also 13 (4/21/2021):

        “Officers were called at 9:08 p.m. Monday to Topridge Place in Winton Hills, according to a Cincinnati Police Department release. Police said they found a 13-year-old with a stab wound. The incident happened in the green space between two buildings.

        “During a verbal dispute, (the teen) pulled out a pocket knife and cut the victim on the right side of her neck causing her death,” court documents state.”

        Remember, this one doesn’t count because they can’t sue the city for millions of repamarations.

        Real Journalists are pimping the narrative of the Columbus incident that childhood knife fights are just kids being kids.

        Real Journalists.

  8. Real Journalists.

    NYT Columnist Argues Mass Rioting, Looting Last Summer Was Just Something Republicans ‘Believe’ Happened (4/23/2021):

    “New York Times columnist Paul Krugman is arguing that all that destruction was just something Republicans “believe.”

    “In reality, given that GOP supporters believe that rampaging mobs burned and looted major cities — somehow without the people actually living in those cities noticing”

    “Fiery but mostly peaceful” is what Real Journalists think you should believe. At least some state legislatures and governors are starting to do something about these youths / students / spring breakers (please consult Associated Press style guide):

    “A new Oklahoma law protects drivers who unintentionally injure or kill demonstrators from any liability, while simultaneously subjecting protesters who block roadways to jail time and hefty fines.

    Because of HB 1674, a driver “who unintentionally causes injury or death” while exercising “due care” will not be criminally or civilly liable if they reasonably believe they’re “fleeing from a riot” where they will be harmed.”

    I’ll believe the hundreds of unedited video clips on Andy Ngo’s Twitter and elsewhere. Real Journalists, GFY.

    1. NYT Columnist Argues Mass Rioting, Looting Last Summer Was Just Something Republicans ‘Believe’ Happened

      They sure like to gaslight. Of course, those lies aren’t aimed at Republicans, they’re for the benefit of true believers.

  9. From the leading article …

    “One person, who asked not to be identified, said that there seems to be a lag between rapidly increasing house prices and ‘comparables’ that appraisers rely on.

    “The gap does exist because residential appraisers typically rely heavily on the market approach to value, i.e., they review past comparable sales to arrive at a market value for the subject,”

    And then these appraisers render up an opinion, an opinion based on the behaviors of strangers who have some gained access to huge gobs of money.

    The most optimistic, the most foolish members of this money-laden group of strangers are the ones who submit the winning bids, meaning they pay the highest prices for the houses which are reflected in the opinions of appraisers. These opinions are seen as evidence that values, values that are conjured up out of thin air, are rising thus wealth is being created.

    “Jean M. McCarty, executive director of the Mississippi Coalition of Appraisers, said in an email.

    “’Appraisers cannot create additional value for today’s sale out of thin air . . ., McCarty said. ‘but must know whether there has been a rise in sales prices, how much and when that increase began. And thus ‘time adjustments’ should be given to historical sales data if their market analysis shows values have increased.’”

    “Appraisers cannot create additional value for today’s sale out of thin air …” No, they have to wait a week or so for strangers to create these thin-air values, values created out of thin air using money that belongs to somebody else.

    1. “…values created out of thin air using money that belongs to somebody else….”

      Seems to operate a little bit like fractional banking.

      1. “…values created out of thin air using money that belongs to somebody else….”

        – Check out the chart in this tweet and you’ll know you’re not wrong…
        Holger Zschaepitz
        It’s the liquidity, stupid! MSCI World hit fresh ATH as global liquidity hit fresh ATH as well at $97.1tn.
        9:46 AM · Apr 17, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

        – The Fed and other Central Banks have the liquidity spigots wide open; they’re flooding the world with fiat currency. Just look around. There is no value, just price. Housing, stonks, corp. bonds, esp HY, but also IG, crypto, dogcoin, catcoin, lumber, gold, silver, food, bat guano, etc. It’s “to the moon!” Global currencies are being systematically destroyed, as per the plan. Coming soon: The Great Reset.
        – All of this price craziness is directly tied to currency printing, ex nihilo, or “out of thin air,” “out of nothing,” and is in no way sustainable. The bubble keeps inflating, for now, but history hasn’t been kind to nations that have done this in the past. The trouble is that now it’s global.

        1. What an economy.

          Add to list, electronic (imaginary) baseball cards, tied to NFT (Non Fungible Tokens)

        2. The trouble is that now it’s global.

          There’s a youtuber who calls himself the “Nomad Capitalist”. He really thinks he can run away and escape the globalists’ reach into his pocket.

          1. “…He really thinks he can run away and escape the globalists’ reach into his pocket…”

            Reminds me of one of those ‘reality’ TV shows where they dump someone out of helicopter with nothing more than a pen knife and a book of matches.

            Of course, they never mention that the survivor is surrounded by a well fed video crew.

          2. The Nomad Capitalist’s theme is running away to low tax 3rd world sh!tholes and starting businesses there. In one episode he admitted he got mugged in Managua, down the street from his hotel.

  10. If we don’t get our way we will:

    Make you wear a foolish mouth diaper
    Shut your business down
    Rig an election
    Burn down your house
    Rob you blind
    Turn the common cold into a deadly disease

    Stick’em up.

  11. What CA really needs to create affordable housing is Caitlyn Jenner. That we can all agree on. She’s my guy for Governor.

    1. She’s my guy for Governor.

      Only in Clownifornia would Bruce Jenner be considered a viable GOP candidate.

  12. “Stalin in particular declared any theft of state property a crime punishable by death. He then at the same time declared that all production including food production was state property. So, if you eat food that was not granted to you by the state, you are stealing, and could therefore be shot. See how that works?”

    “Agenda 21 is a global plan to inventory and control all land, all … all energy , all education, all information, and all human beings in the world.”

    Rosa Koire, author of “Behind the Green Mask”

    The Reasons Why Leftists Will Never Successfully Disarm Americans

    By Brandon Smith
    April 22, 2021


    Gun confiscation has always been the Holy Grail of totalitarian regimes. Without disarmament, fully centralized control of a population is not possible. And though it is true that not every evil regime seeks to disarm every single citizen (at least not right away), they always disarm the people they specifically intend to hurt the most.

    For example, gun control advocates today like to point out that the Third Reich in Germany did not disarm the entire German population. This is a rather bizarre position for leftists as they continually wail and scream about Nazis around every corner and behind every tree, but they will STILL defend their gun grabbing policies by arguing that the Nazis were not as bad as conservatives assume. Of course, what they rarely mention is that the Nazis DID disarm millions of people; most of them Jews and political opponents under 1938 German gun laws.

    The National Socialists disarmed the people they planned to destroy. It’s not hard to figure out why; they didn’t want their targets to be able to fight back. They allowed their political supporters to keep their weapons legally; this is not a relaxation of gun laws, in fact, it’s the reverse – It is selective enforcement of gun confiscation based on ideological loyalty.

    Hilariously, leftists in the US when confronted with this fact double down on their gun control arguments. Instead of admitting their foolish error they will say: “Yes, the Nazis disarmed the Jews and others, but having guns would have made no difference in saving their lives…” And there you have it – The most backwards circular logic of all time. If Jews and others owning guns was not a deterrent to their slaughter, then why would the Nazis bother disarming them in the first place? Leftists have no answer to this question.

    They are trying to argue against facts using a hypothetical; really, how would they know? Maybe owning guns might have saved the lives of millions of people the Nazis had deemed enemies of the state? Maybe it would have acted as a deterrent to the Holocaust? Maybe the Nazis would have been afraid to expand tyranny into Europe if they had to worry about their own population fighting back and disrupting their momentum? Maybe, WWII would have never happened? We could argue hypotheticals all day long…

    What we do know for certain is that disarmament is ALWAYS one of the first steps by totalitarians in cementing their control of a population, and this is most common among the biggest political killers in modern history – And no, it’s not the Nazis; it’s the communists.

    While a debate rages over the exact number of deaths attributed to communist governments, it is estimated that they are responsible for approximately 65 million to 100 million murders over the course of the last century, a genocide beyond anything history has ever seen before. These deaths were caused by direct means, such as shooting dissidents, or indirect means, such as imprisoning dissidents until they died from complications, or stealing food supplies from rural communities and allowing them to starve en masse.

  13. Looks like it’s just about Mission Accomplished for the Real Journalists

    ‘You Shoot Us, We Shoot You’: BLM Activists Threaten To Kill Cops ‘Eye For An Eye’ After Columbus Shooting

    April 22, 2021
    8:25 PM ET

    “We’re not gonna sit here and just sit around while you shoot and kill us and go back to the suburbs,” an unidentified speaker says. “We’re sick … maybe it needs to be an eye for an eye” he continued, with some protesters saying “yeah” in apparent agreement.

    1. Columbus was nice to live in back in the day. Football Factory State University home game Saturdays, you never knew how long the party would last and what could happen that night.

      Everything was cheap, really cheap. Shared 4bd duplex with three other roomates: $131.25 a month. Shared 3bd apartment with one other roomate: $210 a month.

      Used Kids Records on High Street, LPs for $1 or less. Buckeye Donut, endless coffee refills. I don’t think I ever paid more than $15 to see a show at the Newport.

      No phones. Computers with internet only existed on campus at the library or computer lab.

      The present (and the future) is so overrated. I could exist with only pre-2000 media and technology and not feel like I’m missing out on anything…

      1. Columbus was nice to live in back in the day.
        I went to Grad school at Football factory. I always hung out at The Outer-Inn. I remember cows being in the city limits.

    2. I’m sure a lot of people are thinking that the cop should have just stood by while the girl got stabbed to death.

      1. I think cops should record what they see, not intervene, and immediately release the footage.

        Maybe if we saw weekly carnage in urban areas America would give a damn.

        1. Not a bad idea considering the Supremes have ruled that cops are under no legal obligation to intervene in a violent situation.

          Just film and upload. From a safe distance of course.

          YouTube will block it. Best use Bitchute. A talented editor could cut clips together to the Benny Hill theme music for maximum punch.

  14. Will Housing Bubble 2.0 look bigger than the first one, thanks to an unprecedented level of government interventions and life support measures distorting the market beyond recognition?

    1. This bubble peak is not quite in the rearview mirror just yet. But it certainly seems like we are in the runup to another epic bubble peak and crash! Even the New York Times is acknowledging the runup to a peak.

      Meanwhile, hotcakes!

      Housing Market in Frenzy Like No Other Since 2008 Crisis: Live Updates
      Last Updated
      April 23, 2021, 11:59 p.m. ET
      3 hours ago
      U.S. stocks rebound while Bitcoin continues to sink.
      Homes are selling in record time and prices keep rising.
      Homes typically sold in 18 days in March, according to the National Association of Realtors.

      The median sale price of an existing home in the United States was $329,100 in March, up 17.2 percent from a year earlier, when a 3 to 5 percent annual increase is considered healthy, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors, a trade group.

      Nationwide, housing inventory was at 1.07 million units at the end of March, just above its record low of 1.03 million the prior month and down 28.2 percent from a year earlier, the group said on Thursday.

      Sales of new single-family houses soared the highest level since 2006 in March, the Census Bureau reported on Friday, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.021 million, up 21 percent from February. The typical new home sold for $330,800, down from its recent peak of $365,300 in December.

      Existing homes typically sold in 18 days, a record speed. Normally, 60 days is typical, Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, told Stefanos Chen of The New York Times.

      When the housing market peaks will depend largely on where you live and how the pandemic continues to reorder buyer priorities, but it will hinge on two trends: rising mortgage rates and incredibly tight inventory in some markets, which will likely keep demand strong through the rest of 2021, even as price growth moderates, several analysts said.

      In Manhattan, where commercial real estate was battered and home buyers fanned outward to surrounding suburbs in search of affordability and more space, the sales market fell off at the beginning of the pandemic but appears to have turned the corner.

      “The rate at which homes are selling nationally is not sustainable, but in New York, the uptick is just getting started,” said Nancy Wu, an economist for StreetEasy, a listing website.

      In the week ending April 11, there were 783 new signed contracts citywide, the highest since the company began tracking weekly pending sales in 2019, when the peak was 491 contracts, she said.

      1. “…but it will hinge on two trends: rising mortgage rates and incredibly tight inventory in some markets, which will likely keep demand strong through the rest of 2021, even as price growth moderates, several analysts said.”

        What kind of dumbsh!tz do New York Times writers interview? Obviously tight inventory is a supply side factor, while higher mortgage rates kill demand.

        So whutt iz it again that will keep demand strong?

    2. Short answer: no, at least not for residential.

      This government support is not unprecedented The Fed/Gov retroactively supported the housing bubble in 2004-2007 too, just in the form a bailout after the fact. Since then, Fed/Gov has simply continued that support as a continuous pre-bail, so to speak. Same support.

      What’s different this time is that 1) no more 0% down 2) no more I/O monthly payments. For 3.5% down payments and fully amortized monthly PITI, somebody is coming up with cash from somewhere. I think it’s pent-up savings from years of apartment living, added to the Bank of Mom and Dad. That cash is running out. I think we’ll see a price leveling soon.

      1. Don’t forget those 125% HELOCs that boosted retail spending, and post crash Dubya, “How did we get here?”

      2. I’ll take leveling. If I can sell my house in a year (when son graduates HS) for what I could sell it for now, I would be very happy.

  15. Any thoughts on why the number of U.S. homes for sale has shrunk by 75%, from 4 million in July 2007 to 1 million currently? Have 75% of the physical housing units in the U.S. disappeared? Or could it be that owning a home in the U.S. has become such a reliable gold mine in perpetuity for HODLers that once someone becomes an owner, they never again want to sell, and want to acquire several other homes for good measure to increase their real estate income? Or is it the incursion of institutional investors competing with Mom and Pop buyers who are shrinking the inventory towards zero, much as Reddit investors did with GameStonk inventory earlier this year?

    It must be quite difficult for the used home sales industry to stay afloat with so few homes for sale. But you needn’t worry, as their chief economist, Larry Yun, has offered his personal assurance that this time is different, and there is no bubble.

    1. Apr 11, 2021 – Economy & Business
      The dispiriting housing boom
      Felix Salmon
      Felix Salmon, author of Capital
      Illustration of a white picket fence shaped like arrows trending upwards
      Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

      It’s a discouraging scene: Bidding wars, soaring prices, and fears that homeownership is becoming out of reach for millions of Americans. We’re in a housing frenzy, driven by a massive shortage of inventory — and no one seems to be happy about it.

      Why it matters: Not all bubbles burst. Real estate, in particular, tends to rise in value much more easily than it falls. Besides, says National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, this “is not a bubble. It is simply lack of supply.”

      1. “Biggest Losers…many of them are being forced to make rushed and risky decisions.”

        Who exactly is holding the gun to these losers’ heads?

        “Homebuyers are the biggest losers. In order to win bidding wars, many of them are being forced to make rushed and risky decisions. Successful bids often need to waive any financing contingency or right to inspect the property.

        That raises the terrifying prospect of putting down a large downpayment and then not being able to get a mortgage — and/or finding that the house requires hundreds of thousands of dollars in repairs.”

    2. Any thoughts on why the number of U.S. homes for sale has shrunk by 75%, from 4 million in July 2007 to 1 million currently?

      1. By 2007, the bubble was 3-4 years old and builders had time to stamp out McMansions by the million.
      2. This new bubble snuck up on us rather swiftly. There has been little time to fix houses up for sale. You can’t just stick a sign in the yard anymore, remember? You gotta spend $40K on gray paint, stainless steel appliances, and azalea bushes. That takes time and money. Not to mention the shortage of skilled workers and materials (broken supply chain, remember) for learning pods and home offices in houses not for sale. It’s going to be a busy construction summer. And they will find workers … down on the border.

        1. That’s sort of my plan. I do have a project list, but that’s only to fix something or enjoy it myself. When it comes time to sell, I’ll take a comp, drop the price $50K (or whatever) and tell buyers it’s up to them. I’ll have enough equity that I won’t care. But I’m not doing a reno just so the selling agent can take 3% of it for no work whatsoever.

        1. A year ago we didn’t have the urgency and the FOMO. We had “froth” but it wasn’t bubbly enough to convince people to uproot and sell.

      1. Re: lack of workers. Yesterday I got a notice from my Grand Junction CO supplier of real, made in USA, outdoor clothing & sleeping bags that he is cutting way back on his offerings, and will be selling only sleeping bags after early May 2021. Reason: lack of seamsters to do the work

        1. Next door neighbor for the last 6 years has stalled out on his attempt at flipping a truly decrepit “bargain” house. When I first met him I advised him to bulldoze the wreck & build a modern house. Now he wishes he had taken my advice. Today he told me he tried to hire a contractor to finish off the work needed to sell the place. Contractor said he can’t get to him until July, and still hasn’t called him back to schedule an onsite visit & bid.

      2. This new bubble snuck up on us rather swiftly.

        Hmmmm … I saw signs of it in Dumver as far back as 2013

        What was different this time, at least in my neck of the woods, was the pace of new residential SFH construction.

      3. Hey Oxide, I did a long post on this topic earlier today before seeing this post. Check it out!

        1. Fed funds rate and money is only about getting money to people to buy. But you still need to convince an owner to sell. Even if the owner wants to sell into this pricey market, he suddenly find himself having to relocate and do some sudden reno, with a shortage of workers and materials. The pressure is either to spend a lot of money on reno, or to drop the price enough for the a flipper to accept. This takes time.

  16. Question for posters who follow both crypto and stonks: Should we expect the Bitcoin bear market to soon spill over into mainstream stonks, similar to the correlated drop in stocks and Beanie Baby prices in the early 2000s?

    Or is this time different, with different bubble asset categories fully decoupled?

    1. Is electronic counterfeit money still in fashion?

      Bitcoin Bloodbath ‘Long Overdue,’ but Institutional Demand Will Prevail
      Fri, April 23, 2021, 8:44 AM·2 min read
      By Yasin Ebrahim – Bitcoin has suffered a tumultuous week that has landed it in bear market territory. But the selling will subside as institutional investors are well versed in the ‘hodl’ and are unlikely to be spooked by a “long overdue” correction, according to an expert.

      BTC/USD fell 6.5% to $49,980 on Friday, and entered bear market territory after falling about 22% since its recent peak on April 14.

      1. $50,000 for Buttcoin is still an absolutely ludicrous price. But hey, when an acquaintance tried to turn me on to it at under $100 back in the day, I laughed, so what do I know?

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