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Buyers Are Finally Saying, I’m Not Going To Pay It

A report from the San Francisco Chronicle in California. “San Francisco’s pandemic-battered condo market bounced back with a vengeance this spring, scoring its busiest three-month period in at least 16 years as vaccinated buyers rushed back into the city to take advantage of pricing that is still significantly below its 2018 highs, according to a new report from the brokerage Compass. High-rise condo prices are down 9.1% from pre-pandemic highs, while mid-rise units are down 9.6% and low-rise homes are 5.2% below what they were.”

The North Bay Business Journal in California. “Construction restarted in late May on the Napa Creek Village project after work halted on the 48-unit ‘eco-village’ housing development last year amid lawsuits and foreclosure. The new owner, Los Angeles-based OSM Investment Company, purchased the 2.5-acre property at 2614 First St., in a trustee’s sale in January, it was announced.”

“Disputes between former project developers Thriving Communities and Healthy Buildings Companies and construction lender Amalgamated Bank led to the foreclosure to satisfy $11.9 million in claims, the Napa Valley Register reported early this year. ‘The project is about two-thirds finished from what we can tell,’ R.D. Olson Construction President Bill Wilhelm told the Business Journal.”

From National Mortgage Professional. “The housing market is showing signs of a cool down, according to Redfin. The company reported that both pending sales and asking prices either declined or flatted in the four weeks ending May 30. ‘The housing market was going 100 miles per hour and now it’s down to 80,’ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. ‘This is not the bursting of a bubble. Rather, it’s a sign that consumers might rather spend their time and money on other things besides housing now that travel, dining and entertainment are resuming in full force.'”

“‘There are some signs that buyers may be pulling back,’ said Seattle Redfin real estate agent Alysan Long. ‘Homes are staying on the market past the date the sellers had planned to review offers and other homes are being listed without an offer review date, neither of which was happening earlier this spring. We’re increasingly seeing homes only get one offer, and even homes that are still getting multiple offers are receiving fewer offers than they would have a few weeks ago.'”

From Mansion Global on Texas. “Allie Beth Allman has been on the Dallas real estate scene for more than 35 years. MG: What about inventory? Is Dallas experiencing a shortage? ABA: On the upper end, there’s a lot of inventory. We’re not lacking in $4 million-and-up properties. You get down to the $500,000 houses, yes. There’s no inventory.”

“MG: What are your predictions for the market for the rest of 2021? ABA: I think it’s going to be strong. I can feel a little bit of a slowdown. What’s happening is people are saying, ‘well, I’ll put my house on the market if I can get this price,’ which is a price that they never dreamed they would get. And the buyers are finally saying, ‘look, this can’t keep going like this; I’m not going to pay it. I’m going to wait it out.’ If sellers are realistic and pricing homes at what the current value is, they are still selling.”

From Western Investor. “A recent survey of Canadian homebuyers showing that more than half say they are now priced out of their local market, combined with a sudden drop in homebuilding, could be signals of a looming downturn in the housing market, experts contend. Housing bubbles have been a leading indicator in 11 of the 14 economic recessions since 1929, notes a Nobel laureate and economist and, he says, a slowdown in residential construction is a consistent early signal.”

“Early in 2006, starts of U.S. housing suddenly began falling from record highs while all other economic indicators were still increasing, Vernon L. Smith noted. A year later, home construction had virtually stopped, U.S. home equity had shed $500 billion in value and the world was in the grip of the worst economic crisis in 100 years.”

“In April, 2021, despite a roaring housing market, the total value of residential building permits issued in Canada pulled back from a peak in March, led by double-digit declines in British Columbia and Quebec, according to Statistics Canada. More than $7.7 billion in residential permits were issued nationally in April, down 6.7 per cent from a record high of more than $8 billion in March. Month-over-month declines in B.C., down 23.7 per cent, and Quebec, where permits fell nearly 15 per cent, contributed most to the downturn.”

“The sudden slump in residential permits coincides with a new Canada-wide survey that shows more than half of Canadian homebuyers believe home prices have now soared beyond their reach. The Point2Homes survey, released June 7, found that while 38 per cent of respondents want to buy a home, 44 per cent did not know when they could actually do so. More than half (53 per cent) stated that they couldn’t keep up with the fast-changing price tags.”

“Smith cautioned that a huge inflow of mortgage credit started the last housing bubble and he sees parallels today in low-cost mortgage money.”

From Stuff New Zealand. “As another series of The Block NZ begins next Monday, June 14, it appears there is no guarantee buyers will get a good investment – the Block penthouse in Kingsland dropped nearly $100,000 in a year. Sophia and Mikaere Gardiner’s penthouse on The Block NZ: Firehouse sold a few days after the live auction in September 2019, for $1.6 million (a fraction less than the reserve), so they did not walk away with a profit.”

“A little over a year later, the penthouse could only fetch $1.515 million when it sold in October 2020. In that same period Auckland house prices skyrocketed 16.3 per cent, and the national median rose nearly 20 per cent (REINZ figures). On that basis one might have expected the penthouse to fetch $1.856 million.”

“The penthouse had been on the market for a considerable period – at once stage it was listed at $1.68 million. It was relaunched with a new agency, Bayleys Ponsonby. Listing agent Jono King says he sold the property within four days of putting it on the market. King says he could see no reason for the price drop: ‘It was a nice apartment, with beautiful views.'”

This Post Has 150 Comments
  1. ‘they did not walk away with a profit…A little over a year later, the penthouse could only fetch $1.515 million when it sold in October 2020’

    Two losses, back to back! Long time readers may remember this TV show caused a national mourning a few years ago that lasted for weeks. What happened? The flippers didn’t make money.

  2. he buyers are finally saying, ‘look, this can’t keep going like this; I’m not going to pay it. I’m going to wait it out’

    Then they aren’t really buyers Allie Beth.

  3. ‘pricing that is still significantly below its 2018 highs’

    Significantly below? Wa happened to my red hotcakes Thornberg?

  4. Even in the last few weeks I see far less people at open houses in my area. And that’s just as an observer. Probably half what I say around April 1.

    1. “Buyers are exhausted. They have nothing more to give” — some Realtorbabble from a recent HBB thread

      1. Start with the first born. Then I need a letter attesting to your undying love for the property. Wave the inspection. Also allow for two weeks each year that I can come back and use. Too difficult? I guess you don’t want this house enough. Shoo peasant

      2. “Buyers are exhausted. They have nothing more to give”

        They’re not “giving” anything, with the exception of pledging the next 30 years of their labor.

        1. Renters pledge 60 years of their labor — with the final 20 years of that paying higher rent on a very low retirement income. I could write a longer post about how owning is much better for my situation, but this blog has blasted me enough times already for buying a house.

          1. LOL. You blasted the “cash in the trash” renters relentlessly. Besides, your house was an investment (leveraged), make you rich and all. Also, you don’t plan to live there in retirement, too expensive right?

            Anyway, glad you survived and love your house.

          2. If you bought at a sane price, then that’s one thing. Today’s prices are so delusional it makes no sense.

          3. I bought in early 2012. It was the short-lived window of sanity.

            Yes, my house an investment, but I have to live somewhere. I’m not sure I’d call it leverage. If somebody margin-called my house, so to speak, I could sell and pay back the mortgage without any loss.

            I don’t plan to live in this house in retirement, no. I intend to sell and use the proceeds to buy something smaller and cheaper outright. The DC area is just too hopping and busy to live in for retirement.

    1. interesting Bitcoin is down to $33K – down 10%. But who knows with the crazy market its in.

    2. Crypto appears to have landed on an unstable and highly volatile shelf of support at 50 percent off peak. I have no idea from whence this force field is generated, but some massive financial power source is preventing it from dropping off to its fundamental value below $0.

      1. This is what happens when you run out of greater fools. Billionaires and hundred millionaires are tweeting their brains out trying to find new sheep, but they’ve exhausted them.

        1. Saylor and Raoul Pal were counting on a “wall of money,” i.e. pension funds desperate for yield, to invest in BTC and drive up the price to make them all rich(er). But when BTC didn’t skyrocket in a v-shape recovery after this latest drop, BTC lost its shine. I don’t think the pension funds can risk the volatility anymore. And now BTC is facing a constant existential threat from governments who want to cancel private cryptos. Pension funds will probably have better luck asking for another bailout from the Fed. Bye bye wall of money.

          1. Even if there’s a crypto that’s going to last, it’s not going to be BitCON. The whole “mining” thing which wastes mass electricity is coming under scrutiny. It should have a long time ago.

            Supposedly Jack Cuckboy Dorsey – the guy who looks like a homeless drifter – is building a bunch of solar to “mine” it, or whatever, but it still makes no sense to waste electricity on e-tulips.

      2. this force field

        An idea landing on an equally imaginary floor. Investors are really smart.

      3. “…I have no idea from whence this force field is generated…”

        My own theory that its money laundering and organized crime.

        1. Even criminals need a currency to have some degree of price stability to serve as a medium of exchange and store of value. Crypto’s utility drops on these metrics with each drastic lurch up or down in price.

          And the Blockchain leaves behind an indelible record of each criminal financial transaction. Seems useful to Interpol, but where is the upside for the criminals?

      4. In a purely practical sense, the force field floor for BTC is around $9-10K, simply because that’s the cost of the electricity to mine a single coin. [I’m basing that on a pre-pandemic cost of ~$4K, and we’ve had a halving since then.]

        1. because that’s the cost of the electricity

          Nobody cares what your sunken cost is. Ever.

          1. The miners care. Even if buyers insist that they will only buy that shiny new fraction of a bitcoin for less than the sunk cost, the miner could refuse to sell and simply HODL until the price went back up. (same as happens with houses) Now, if the price never went above the sunk cost, that would be the end of the game.

          2. prices are set on the margin. someone who owns the coin at very low prices could certainly sell lower than 9k….

          3. No thanks. I don’t need Homeland Security, FBI and US Treasury crashing through the front door for dabbling in CrimeCoin.

          4. the miner could refuse to sell and simply HODL until the price went back up

            The “miner” could end up waiting for a very long time.

          5. “…the miner could refuse to sell and simply HODL until the price went back up. (same as happens with houses)…”

            Except, as any Realtor can tell you, everyone needs a place to live in, with the exception of people who live in vehicles, on the street, or in Mom’s basement because today’s housing prices have left no alternative.

            Nobody needs cryptocurrency. They buy it because they expect to be able to sell it for more later. With no fundamental demand, it’s long-term expected value is $0.

        2. the force field floor for BTC is around $9-10K, simply because that’s the cost of the electricity to mine a single coin.

          Think “white elephant.”

  5. ‘The housing market was going 100 miles per hour and now it’s down to 80,’ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. ‘This is not the bursting of a bubble.

    The lies and dissembling from REIC shills is about to go into hyperdrive as Housing Bubble 2.0 hits its apogee, then the downward trajectory starts to accelerate.

  6. ABA: I think it’s going to be strong. I can feel a little bit of a slowdown.

    It isn’t about your thoughts or feelings, Realtor Gurl. It’s about what the data is telling us.

  7. “Smith cautioned that a huge inflow of mortgage credit started the last housing bubble and he sees parallels today in low-cost mortgage money.”

    Once again, the Keynesian fraudsters at the central banks have blown an unsustainable housing bubble. It’s going to end the same way the last one did: in tears.

  8. King says he could see no reason for the price drop: ‘It was a nice apartment, with beautiful views.’”

    The market determines the price, not greedhead sellers or willfully obtuse realtors.

    1. “The market determines the price, not greedhead sellers or willfully obtuse realtors.”

      These days it is the supplier of money who determines the price.

      Fill a room full of moneyed-up fools and unleash a bidding war and the greatest of the fools will pay the highest price. Take away the money and the price falls.

      It’s the guy who supplies the money who ultimately calls the shots regarding prices.

      1. A banker is a fellow who is happy to loan you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the moment it starts to rain.

        — Mark Twain

  9. In upstate SC ,even rural areas, to go make an offer on a house, now means offering more then asking price, sometimes by large amounts…..I have never seen that before, wonder when that all stops ?

    1. Starting to see price reductions from people who went nuts on asking prices thinking they could get it. Just a trickle. Like my prostate. But will become a flood.

      1. We’re also hitting that affordability wall. Even with loose lending such as a low interest rate and near-0 down payment, there’s an upper limit as to what people can afford. Somebody still has to pony up a full PITI every month, for 360 months. And they’re running out of Millenials who either saved frugally or tapped their inheritance early.

          1. It would be interesting to suddenly find a high percentage of your neighbors gone. At first it would be surreal, but what would follow would be sobering: looting, arson (and possibly no fire department), squatters, and houses that would eventually crumble, turning your street into a modern day ghost town. Not to mention the lights going out and store shelves being bare.

          2. I will absorb the vaxxers housing into a large complex. I’ll be fine. Many fine individuals to man the turrets.

        1. I thought prices were insane when we moved just west of Poway in 2005, but we’ve clearly surpassed that level of insanity in the post-pandemic price blowout.

          Financial historians will marvel at this current example of what happens when a wall of central bank-injected money hits a market in a supply-constrained economic depression.

    2. The comps have gone nationwide. All of a sudden everybody wants to live everywhere just like everyone wants to live in Denver or Asheville or Miami or Mammoth Lakes or Calgary, etc.

      1. The comps have gone nationwide.

        This made me laugh out loud. As absurd as it sounds, it’s probably true. After all, the appraisal “profession” has proven to be as big of a joke as Dogecoin.

      2. Everyone wants to live in Oil City, too.

        There’s too much investor money chasing too few investment properties anymore…

  10. In fairness to this demented psychiatrist, she was merely parroting the pathological anti-white hatred the globalist-controlled media-entertainment complex has been promoting for decades.

    ‘They’re making me the problem’: NYC psychiatrist who told Yale panel she fantasized about shooting white people says she was taken ‘out of context and stands by her work’ after backlash over ‘deeply worrisome’ views

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9663265/NYC-psychiatrist-said-fantasized-shooting-white-people-said-stands-work.html

    1. President Biden is promoting hate against the white race for God sakes. Its all about the Globalist theme that the US is bad and needs to be changed into some Communist sh-t hole.

  11. I want reparations China. And I don’t mean number 6 value meals either.
    One person who read the document, which is dated May 27, 2020, said it made a strong case for further inquiry into the possibility the virus seeped out of the lab.

    The study also had a major influence on the State Department’s probe into Covid-19’s origins. State Department officials received the study in late October 2020 and asked for more information, according to a timeline by the agency’s arms control and verification bureau, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

    The study was important because it came from a respected national laboratory and differed from the dominant view in spring 2020 that the virus almost certainly was first transmitted to humans via an infected animal, a former official involved in the State Department inquiry said. -WSJ

  12. As the Fed’s deranged money printing causes soaring inflation, the globalist media shills are trotting out a new narrative: we must embrace inflation cuz it’s a necessary byproduct of the Fed’s policies intended to “reduce inequality” (by robbing the productive to give to the parasites). Got it, Real Journalists.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fear-of-inflation-is-a-red-herring-designed-to-distract-us-from-the-need-for-policies-to-reduce-inequality-11623080879?mod=mw_latestnews

    1. How does deliberately putting money into the pockets of people who leveraged themselves up with a mountain of debt to buy used homes at unaffordable prices, only to inadvertently attract a horde of investors, from mom-and-pop to institutional, who buy homes merely to get on the receiving end of the government’s housing market gravy dispensary, reduce inequality?

      Seems like targeted government wealth redistribution measures to reduce inequality often have the opposite of their intended effect.

      1. Seems like targeted government wealth redistribution measures to reduce inequality often have the opposite of their intended effect.’

        This brought on a hour long discussion with a investment advisor about how screwed up they see things going forward mainly inflation and higher taxes. Vanguard usually is not that chatty.

        1. Awesome!

          I play tennis with an investment advisor, which offers opportunities between points to share our fascination about various forms of financial insanity underway.

          I recently asked him if he ever recommends cryptocurrency to any of his clients, and he said he would just suggest to anyone who is interested to head directly to Las Vegas and try their luck at the casino.

    2. it’s a necessary byproduct of the Fed’s policies intended to “reduce inequality”

      Translation: multitrillion $ deficits are here to stay.

      Unemployment checks are an undercover UBI.

      1. Inequality did better when we had deflation. See 1930’s. The Fed is the enemy

      2. Disagree. I think the new UBI will be the child tax credit, not unemployment. They can’t hide behind the pandemic much longer, but people are always having children. And it’s got the “save the children” cache to it. Bonus points for the income maximum to keep out those pesky successful white families.

        1. I think the new UBI will be the child tax credit, not unemployment.

          That’s not UBI at all. UBI is where everyone gets it. “Universal Basic Income.

        2. I think the new UBI will be the child tax credit

          I believe that is called “pushing on a string.” A few hundred per month (which could be taken away at a moment’s notice) won’t persuade the “child free” to start breeding.

          1. Everybody KNEW that the eviction moratoriums and extra unemployment cheese would be taken away eventually. But that didn’t stop people from buying sexi-trux and other toys.

          2. Bingo, it’s not a few hundred dollars a month that prevents me from wanting kids, but the outrageous cost of housing sure is…

        3. UBI – allowing self-employed individuals to access UI was a new thing in 2020. The feds could continue that in some form but UI is a state run program.

          Bezos got the child tax credit a few times in the past despite his wealth.

        4. I don’t know about the new UBI, but the OLD UBI was above-zero interest rates on savings accounts and bonds.

          1. Probably for the best. We have enough f’d up younger children because of the COVID response. I wonder how they’ll be able to have functional relationships later in life when they’ve been taught to fear anyone not in their household.

  13. “…low-rise homes are 5.2% below what they were.”

    Low-rise homes? Is that even a thing? Lol!

  14. The California association of used home sellers has BayAryan prices up by 35% year-on-year…

    1. San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Market

      This article has been updated to reflect the latest trends in the San Francisco Bay Area housing market. The Bay Area real estate market is hotter than ever. The month of April saw the demand outweigh the supply leading to properties being sold at an unusually faster rate. The Bay Area housing market is driven by intense demand, low interest rates, and tight inventory. Home prices are skyrocketing due to increased demand from the state’s high-income residents who are able to take advantage of low-interest mortgage rates.

      In April 2021, a large influx of buyers caused housing prices to rise over the last year. The median sales price of this region, which includes all nine counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma, was $1,328,440. That’s a growth of 35.6% from last April, according to C.A.R. Bay Area house prices were up 8.4% from March. Sales of existing homes were up throughout California’s housing market.

  15. The Financial Times
    Opinion Cryptocurrencies
    Bitcoin lacks a solid foundation as an international currency
    For millennia, money has acted as a store of value as well as reducing transaction costs — crypto does neither
    The blockchain system consumes enormous amounts of energy and there is no stable issuer that can guarantee the currency
    Roger Svensson yesterday
    The writer is associate professor at the Research Institute of Industrial Economics

    The value of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has multiplied in the last decade. Non-existent returns on fixed-income securities and the fear of future inflation when central banks let the money printing press run at full tilt have led investors to seek alternatives. Many have invested in cryptocurrencies. There is also a superstition that they will take over as an international means of payment. El Salvador’s president recently said he would make bitcoin legal tender in the country.

    Research has shown that an international currency must meet at least four basic conditions: it must have a long-term stable value; there must be sufficient volume to meet the needs of international trade in goods, services and financial assets; transaction costs must be low, with small differences between bid and ask prices, and high liquidity; and there must be a stable issuer who guarantees the currency.

    Based on this, market participants choose which currency should be the most viable in world trade, and no supranational authority is needed. The conditions apply for both commodity and fiat money. For fiat, there must be an issuer, as the currency implies a commitment to the holder.

    Historically, all dominating international currencies met the requirements: Athenian tetradrachms (c. 480-40BC), Roman denarii (211BC-AD200), Byzantine solidus (300-1085), florins and ducats from Florence and Venice (1250-1600), the Dutch guilder/ducat (1600-1780), British pounds (1800-1918) and finally US dollars (1918-present). Of these, the gold coin solidus was the longest-lived, its content and weight unchanged for more than 700 years, giving rise to the word solid.

    Bitcoin, however, meets none of the four conditions. First, it has greater volatility than any other predominant currency in history. Price changes of tens of per cent within days are commonplace. Second, there is a pre-determined maximum amount that can be created. If it is to cover the needs of a growing international trade, the relative value of the currency must increase, which makes it even more unstable. Third, transaction costs are high; transactions take time and the system can only handle a limited number per time period.

    Furthermore, the blockchain system that produces bitcoin consumes enormous amounts of energy and there is no stable issuer that can guarantee the currency. If one or more large regimes were to ban transactions, the fairy tale could soon be over. And while the limited amount of each cryptocurrency restricts over-issuing, there are a huge number of them, with new ones created every day.

  16. anticipating soccer mom realtor emails to begin again from barely-known school aged classmates of my kids.
    they get my email address from contact lists for kids activities. usually wouldn’t give me the time of day as i drive a 29 year old toyota minivan & wear unfashionable clothing but boy howdy when sales slow it’s “HEY THERE, haven’t seen you for awhile. How have you BEEN!? If your looking to buy or sell .. .. yadda yadda. ”

    oy vey. haha!

    1. I look forward to technology and common sense ending realtors jobs essentially.

          1. They should get nothing. They’re not even an essential part of the transaction, they’re like a leech hanging around for a cut. There’s a reason they’re the largest lobby in DC – they’re desperately trying to protect their racket.

      1. “…technology and common sense ending realtors jobs…”.

        I am amazed that realtors even still exist.

        I read somewhere recently [I believe here on the HBB] that there are currently more active dues paying realtors than homes for sale.

        But more to the point, what exactly is the value added by a realtor?

        If I was interested in purchasing a property today, why would I want to contact a realtor? Am I just being lazy?

        Anyone can research a property via multiple online sources.

        The actual purchase paperwork can be handled by an real estate attorney.

        What am I missing?

        1. If I was interested in purchasing a property today, why would I want to contact a realtor?

          One thing I’m not seeing these days is FSBO. If the market is so red hot why not sell it yourself and save tens of thousands in commissions?

          1. “…One thing I’m not seeing these days is FSBO…”

            Ditto out here in the wilds of SoCal.

            Has the REIConplex done such a great job of hypnotizing the general population that most everyone believes that a realtor is necessary to buy/sell a property?

            There is a an outfit called “Help-U-Sell” that has been around for many years. Never really seemed to take off. Can’t remember the last time I saw on of their lawn signs.

          2. sellers want to quickly reach buyers. majority of buyers look on the MLS/Realtor.com. And to get on there you have to go thru a broker.

          3. I just remember during the previous bubble that there were FSBO’s

            Redfin seems to advertise a lot these days. Not FSBO but supposedly cheaper than a realtor.

      2. Political action may be required to break the NAR monopoly grip on home sales. Is the Sherman Antitrust Act still in force?

    2. They use the kids to network for leads? That’s low. That’s VERY low.
      Luckily I don’t have kids, but if that happened to me, not only would I refuse them, I would spread some nice misinformation about them too.

    1. We all have the right to choose our own high-risk gambling alternative to watching our dollar savings get gradually inflated away with only interest earnings less than inflation to compensate.

    2. Have you heard of “rage buying meme stocks?” It’s apparently a thing with the younger crowd.

  17. My hope is that the same, stupid mechanisms (and there are many) that have driven the bubble, collapse it even below fair value.

    And fast, sick of waiting this thing out.

      1. Got something new today:

        Hot Cheetos Macaron at Indulge Gourmet Desserts, Tomball, Texas

        “The rotating flavors at Treney Juarez’s macaron stand mix high with low. Some, like the fig-goat cheese and salted caramel, skew more classically French, while others, such as the recently debuted hot Cheetos and sour apple, are inspired by the Houston pastry chef’s own guilty pleasures. The Flamin’ Hot Cheetos cookie calls for white chocolate ganache blended with crushed puffs and macaron shells colored a bright red to match.”

        https://www.foodnetwork.com/restaurants/photos/crazy-dishes-made-with-flamin-hot-cheetos

  18. Ventura, CA Housing Prices Crater 15% As Rampant Mortgage Fraud Rots Southern California

    https://www.movoto.com/ca/93001/market-trends/

    As one LA broker conceded, “Sellers are hanging on by a thread hoping to get a sale while slashing prices double digits. Most of the just plain paid too much for a house.”

  19. Furthermore, the Fed would have no choice, but to keep its asset purchasing programme if the Biden administration approves large infrastructure spending, or increases social programmes, without raising the equivalent taxes, which would lead to a more permanent elevated deficit. In this scenario, the Fed could be forced to keep expanding its balance sheet to prevent the yield curve from steepening significantly. The Fed would have little choice but to engage in yield curve control (YCC), initially covert YCC. The Fed can, for example:

    1. Adjust its quantitative easing (QE) programme to buy fewer mortgage-backed securities and more Treasuries;

    2. Execute another ‘Operation Twist’, meaning selling short term bonds and purchasing long duration securities. One advantage of this policy would be that it alleviates the current scarcity of short term securities in the money market.3

    3. Engage in some kind of financial repression, for example by forcing local pension funds and insurance companies to add more exposure to US Treasuries in order to match their long term liabilities.

    4. All of the above.

    If covert YCC fails, the Fed can get more explicit, for example by announcing fixed targets for yields on, 3-year or 10-year bonds. Such strategies have been adopted by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan. Specific yield targets would initially allow the Fed to meet its objectives with fewer bond purchases, at least while market participants believe in the credibility of the policy. We believe the bar for explicit yield targeting is high, not least, because by removing the escape valve of freely moving bond prices YCC is likely to cause investors to sell the Dollar aggressively

    1. Get rates back up into the long term historic range of 12%-15% and most of these problems go away on their own.

      1. Pfizer started dosing participants aged 5-11 in a global phase 2/3 study. CEO admits severe COVID19 is rare in children. 😠

        1. The risks far outweigh the benefits for vaccinating children against Covid-19. With the data clearly showing that the epidemic is on its way out in this country, imposing kids to serious risks for no good reason is absolutely inexcusable.

          Someone should tell all the teachers unions out there that they are all going to die one day. That doesn’t mean that they can kill off their students because of their neurotic fears of germs. Covid-19 has been the biggest scandal and fake public health disaster in modern history. All because of TRD and Orange Man Bad.

          I hope that people started hitting the government, politicians, doctors and scientists with billion dollar lawsuits. And toss people like Fauci in jail where he belongs.

        2. Pfizer started dosing participants aged 5-11 in a global phase 2/3 study.

          A needle in every arm.

  20. Got the following text message yesterday “from Gavin Newsom’s Stop the Republican Recall of Governor Newsom campaign committee. As you know, this recall attempt is being led by a collection of partisan Republicans and hardcore Trump supports who want us to do less to fight COVID. Will you join me in saying you OPPOSE the recall of Governor Newsom?”

    My response: Recall Newsom!!! You’re delusional if you think this is confined to the Republican party.

  21. Oh dear…”former” Rothschild banker and current globalist Quisling Macron goes to say hello to the peasantry, gets b*tch-slapped by a Frenchman angry at seeing his country turned into a Goldman Sachs looting colony and destination of choice for every Third World benefits sponger and radical Islamist from Africa and the Middle East. This is going to cause some pearl-clutching among Real Journalists.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9664287/President-Macron-SLAPPED-face-walkabout-France.html

  22. Citizens! The Comrades of Proven Worth (D) have ordained that flying American flags on pick-up trucks is evidence of insurrectionist sympathies. In our People’s Republic of New Democracy, this is grounds for preventive detention pending transfer to a re-education camp. Henceforth, motorists may only fly rainbow, BLM, or hammer and sickle flags, and only if driving Toyota Prius, Tesla, or Subaru Forester vehicles. Forward, Soviet!

    Woke MSNBC analyst sparks fury after claiming she was ‘disturbed’ to see ‘dozens of American flags’ on pickup trucks during a recent trip to Long island

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9664535/Woke-MSNBC-analyst-blasted-claiming-disturbed-American-flags-pickup-trucks.html

    New York Times editorial board member Mara Gay sparked fierce backlash on social media Tuesday after saying she was ‘disturbed’ to see American flags flown on pickup trucks in a recent trip to Long Island.

    Speaking on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, she said the flags were being flown on trucks belonging to Trump supporters, with the vehicles also bearing expletives against President Joe Biden.

    1. vehicles also bearing expletives against President Joe Biden

      But Hollywood stars saying that they want to assassinate the president (Johnny Depp) and burn down the White House (Madonna) is okay.

  23. Seattle flight attendant alleges Alaska Airlines uniform policy is discriminatory
    “The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) said the uniform policies discriminate against non-binary and gender non-conforming flight attendants.”

    1. That’s a pretty rushed flip, and it shows. The best feature is the stair bannister, which is probably original to the house.

      It’s always fun to look up these addresses on Google Maps street view to see what the house looked like beforehand. And case out the neighbors — stoves on porches, cars up on blocks etc.

      But this town is so far into the woods that hasn’t even been google streeted yet. A bit surprising, since Elkins is a sizable town. But it’s not near anything. I wonder what industry they have there, other than Social Security, Super Wally’s, and weed.

  24. Just wait until people are sent back into the office. Thanks to Biden’s green energy polices (High Oil Prices) Those two-thirds of millennials who regretted buying a home will REALLY want to sell and find themselves in a pickle the second home prices start to go down.

    I’m predicting there will be a great “reverse” migration, people moving back to California and other blue utopia’s. They thought their ‘work from home’ job was secure which is turning out to be false. Once they realized they can’t get back into the home market, your going to see some a major housing crash and it ain’t going to be pretty.

    1. We have been told at the office to “carry on” with WFH if we want.

      That reminds me, I need to file an expense report to get reimbursed for my ISP this month. That might go away.

    2. Same with 9/11. For 3 years people poured out of NYC after 9/11. 3 years after that, all those “rich people!” couldn’t run from those mortgages and rotting pile of rural and suburban sticks fast enough…. that and all the mortgage and appraisal fraud led to a 45% housing price decline.

    3. I’ve been told anyone who meets performance expectations can continue to work at home indefinitely. It helps my boss doesn’t feel the need to micromanage his employees.

      1. “It helps my boss doesn’t feel the need to micromanage his employees.”

        Yep, working with men.

        A split-tail would feel the need to manage everything that you do in the office from your attire to what you’re thinking.

    4. If your job can be “worked from home” here there’s no reason it can’t be done from Asia. That’s what you voted for.

      Get back to the office. You will eat the bugs. You will live in the pod. You will own nothing, and you’ve never been happier.

      1. What I have observed is that those with the essential “tribal knowledge” survive. The others watch their jobs go overseas whether they work in the office or at home.

        1. In my experience, institutional knowledge excuses otherwise egregious behavior.

        2. “…essential “tribal knowledge” survive…”

          Exactly correct.

          As a holder of tribal knowledge, I have noticed that the amount tribal knowledge to hold a business together is inversely related to the level of company mis-management.

          In other words, the mis-managers rely on you, the holder of tribal knowledge to get any real work done. Of course the mis-managers take home the credit, but I take home my fat paycheck.

      2. If your job can be “worked from home” here there’s no reason it can’t be done from Asia. That’s what you voted for.

        Yup. All of these smug, high salaried WFH types are screwed.

    5. I’m predicting there will be a great “reverse” migration, people moving back to California and other blue utopia’s.

      I’m a little unclear about what’s going to happen. There definitely seems to be a migration away from cities. Those real estate markets are either flat or declining. However, suburban markets are red hotcakes. In my area, even apartments are completely filled, few or no vacancies. This is the per the movoto links – here’s DC for example: https://www.movoto.com/washington-dc/market-trends/

      Was covid the only reason? Or also woke economic and criminal justice policies?

      But then what’s going to happen with covid lifting? I have no idea. I try to look at the salient facts (right now mortgage rates are 3.1pct for 30 years, and the Fed is buying 480 billion in MBS each year, Federal Funds Rate is 0.06. But there might be some inflationary pressures? But the Fed has the infinite money printer and I think can take near total control of the MBS market? I dunno – but I do know they have a big bazooka – the money printer – that will only break if there is sustained inflation) and try to guess.

        1. Imagine if you didn’t have the printer. You’d be like 90% of the US population. Broke and don’t know it.

      1. I do know they have a big bazooka – the money printer – that will only break if there is sustained inflation

        The thing is that the money printing bazooka can turn into a runaway train that is hard to stop, or at least very painful to stop, and if history serves any example the brakes won’t be slammed until the pain from continuing becomes unbearable.

  25. Songfacts®:

    This was the last song that Tom Petty ever performed. His final gig was at the legendary Hollywood Bowl on September 25, 2017 and the rock veteran closed his set with “American Girl.” Petty died a week later at UCLA Santa Monica Hospital on October 2, 2017 following a cardiac arrest.

    American Girl

    https://youtu.be/SIhb-kNvL6M

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