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There’s Going To Be A Lot Of Owners Holding The Bag On This Thing

A report from Mansion Global. “Prices have soared as demand significantly outclips supply. But amid all the excitement, more contracts are also falling through, and many prospective buyers are placing offers sight-unseen, only to back out later. ‘There is a much higher fallout rate because people work themselves into a frenzy, they win and then they regret it,’ said Park City, Utah-based agent Ryan Dickey.”

From Bisnow New York. “The supertall at 111 West 57th St. was started in 2014, when buyers were falling over each other to snap up luxury apartments. Now, the building is about three years past its original scheduled completion date, still not finished and facing a market that is a world away from when the ambitious project was first planned. Even before the crisis, the building had fended off foreclosure proceedings, had been hit with lawsuits and rose out of the ground as luxury inventory ballooned.”

“Right now, it would take seven years to sell all the new development condos in Manhattan, per data from appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which analyzes active and shadow inventory in the market. That number is down from a 2020 peak of 8.7 years. ‘People want to negotiate over price, but that’s just because everyone who’s that wealthy wants a discount all the time,’ said David Juracich, who said he is a partner on the building.”

From Inside Nova. “‘Virginia’s housing market continued to be very busy in May, although there may be signs of an approaching cooling,’ said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Virginia Realtors. Inventory remains tight in many areas, ‘though in some markets, the number of active listings is rising, providing more options for buyers,’ Sturtevant said.”

“While still rock-bottom, inventory has been increasing for the past three months, after years of nearly continuous month-to-month declines. Year-over-year inventory was up in many areas of Northern Virginia, but that largely was due to availability of condominiums.”

From Bloomberg. “Texas Student Housing Authority filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, listing between $10 million and $50 million of liabilities. The non-profit, state chartered corporation had assets of $1 million to $10 million, and as many as 199 creditors, according to a June 18 filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Texas. The Southlake, Texas-based organization was established in 1995 to purchase and manage student housing facilities located near the campuses of major colleges and universities, according to its website. It owns housing properties near the University of North Texas in Denton and Texas A&M University in College Station. Both projects offer premium facilities, equipped with resort-style swimming pools and fitness centers.”

“‘Both schools have had troubled muni-financed private student housing projects for years,’ said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.”

From Spectrum News. “Apartment associations and landlords across Southern California are pessimistic about Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plans to forgive all past-due rents from tenants financially impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and are bracing for an extension of the state’s eviction moratorium. ‘This is just prolonging the agony for a lot of people,’ said Dan Yukelson, the executive director of the Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles, which represents more than 10,000 members.”

“‘The [new program] would only help low-income tenants,’ Yukelson said. ‘There’s still going to be a lot of owners holding the bag on this thing.'”

The Mercury News in California. “A lender is poised to seize a Los Altos site where a high-profile residential development of nearly 200 homes was being planned, public records show. As now envisioned, the project would have added 196 residential units to the community, but it’s now unclear when — or if — the project will be built. The residential project’s future turned fuzzy after the lender, Loancore Capital Credit REIT, filed a notice of default on March 18 that warned the property could be taken by the lender.”

“Now, the lender has scheduled a public auction of the site, documents filed on June 21 with the Santa Clara County Recorder’s Office show. The auction is due to occur in late July, according to the filing. The property, located at 5150 El Camino Real in Los Altos, is slated to be sold to the ‘highest bidder,’ the trustee’s sale notice stated. However, with such auctions, if no bidder appears on the spot at the time of the auction, the property often is formally sold to the lender through a trustee’s deed. This procedure then accomplishes the foreclosure of the loan.”

The Associated Press. “A Kansas judge is beginning to evict tenants who are behind on rent in advance of the expiration of a federal moratorium that some experts predict will bring a tide of people being forced from homes nationwide. Johnson County Magistrate Judge Daniel Vokins said during a Zoom eviction hearing this week that he doesn’t think the moratorium, which was issued last year by the the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and expires at the end of the month, is enforceable.”

“Karen Nations, who also represented landlords at the hearing, said the moratorium has been difficult. ‘Landlords have been struggling to pay their bills, and people have taken advantage of the moratorium,’ she said, adding that some who can afford to pay their rent are not. ‘It is a very tricky balancing act to get the mortgage paid if you’re not getting your rent.'”

The Examiner. “The scheduled City Council vote next week on whether to approve an apartment complex in Independence’s much-maligned Falls at Crackerneck Creek development area appears to be close either way. Case Development, based in Oklahoma, hopes to build a 285-unit, 23-building complex on Bass Pro Drive, on 13.5 vacant acres south of Mardel and Hobby Lobby and southwest of Bass Pro Shops. The market-rate apartments would be one- and two-bedroom units, with rents ranging from about $1,000 to $1,300, according to city documents, with garages, a clubhouse and pool.”

“If approved, the Case project would be the third such apartment complex under construction in southeast Independence. Some council members aren’t sold. ‘I think we’re oversaturated with apartments,’ Council Member Brice Stewart said. Stewart said his decision ‘might be different’ if the city didn’t already have two similar apartment complexes deep into construction in the same area of the city.”

The Financial Post in Canada. “Activity in the housing market is becoming further detached from fundamentals, two new reports show, reinforcing fears among some housing experts that Canada’s real-estate market has entered a bubble. New York-based Bloomberg, the global news and data firm, last week ranked Canada as one of the bubbliest housing markets on the planet, while closer to home, a former Bank of Canada economist published research that suggests housing in Toronto and Ottawa is overvalued based on historical metrics, while Montreal is becoming increasingly so.”

“The heat in those eastern cities, combined with Vancouver’s chronically elevated prices, is making the national numbers frothy, as conditions in Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg look reasonable, according to Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud’s analysis. But since those places are home to 50 per cent of Canada’s population, the Bank of Canada will be forced to raise interest rates extremely carefully because low borrowing costs are the only reason housing is affordable, St-Arnaud said.”

“‘The housing market will probably be the first casualty of higher rates,’ St-Arnaud said. ‘When rates go up, that affordability will disappear very, very quickly.'”

“A higher sensitivity to the level of borrowing costs than in the past will force a go-slow approach when the Bank of Canada decides to normalize monetary policy, St-Arnaud said. For that reason, Macklem should act preemptively in lifting rates to avoid having to raise borrowing costs quickly if inflation takes off, the economist said.”

“‘They need to take that into account …. and be very, very gradual as they can be,’ said St-Arnaud. ‘A 25-basis-point hike will have more impact than we’ve seen over the past 20, 30 years.'”

From Money Web in South Africa. “Residential vacancy levels in Cape Town soared to 28.8% in the second quarter, new data from TPN shows. This means between one in three and one in four rental units are standing empty. These unprecedented levels have helped push up the province’s (in effect Cape Town and the Winelands) vacancy rate to 14.4%, the first time this has been in double digits. ‘Michelle Dickens, CEO of the credit bureau, says ‘the Cape Town story is a double whammy of increased supply caused by converting short-term holiday rentals into long-term lets and work-from-home opportunities.'”

“Dickens says ‘it’s a tenant’s market, an oversupply of vacant properties is driving down rental prices as tenants are in the position to shop around for a better deal.'”

From Urban Developer in Australia. “Melbourne landlords who relied on the international student market could be out of pocket up to $5000 a year, according to a property investment platform. Juwai IQI group executive chairman Georg Chmiel said the decline in international student numbers due to pandemic-prompted border closures, had been challenging for Melbourne and Sydney markets, with numbers tipped to decline from 500,000 students in April 2020, to 165,000 in July 2022.”

“Chmiel said Melbourne’s inner-city had been particularly hard hit. ‘Asking prices in the Melbourne city centre are down 8.1 per cent compared to 12 months ago,’ he said. ‘Rents have plummeted a shocking 20.1 per cent … that works out to nearly $5000 a year in rent.'”

“But the Juwai IQI co-founder said he was advising investors to hold on to the depressed assets until international students returned and values picked up. ‘This is a good market for investors who are brave enough to buy while prices are down,’ Chmiel said. Chmiel said despite student accommodation operators’ occupancy rates down to an average of 25 per cent, they had ‘deep pockets’ and a long-term view the market would return.”

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This Post Has 87 Comments

  1. ‘A lender is poised to seize a Los Altos site where a high-profile residential development of nearly 200 homes was being planned…The residential project’s future turned fuzzy after the lender, Loancore Capital Credit REIT, filed a notice of default on March 18 that warned the property could be taken by the lender’

    That’s some red hotcakes right there.

  2. ‘started in 2014, when buyers were falling over each other to snap up luxury apartments’

    The winnahs!

    ‘Now, the building is about three years past its original scheduled completion date, still not finished and facing a market that is a world away from when the ambitious project was first planned. Even before the crisis, the building had fended off foreclosure proceedings, had been hit with lawsuits and rose out of the ground as luxury inventory ballooned’

    DONG!

  3. ‘Both projects offer premium facilities, equipped with resort-style swimming pools and fitness centers’

    No bocce ball?

    ‘Both schools have had troubled muni-financed private student housing projects for years’

    The student housing bubble is just one that popped many years ago.

  4. ‘despite student accommodation operators’ occupancy rates down to an average of 25 per cent, they had ‘deep pockets’

    That’s good Georg with one E. Now let’s sit back and watch those pockets get drained.

    What’s the NOI on 75% vacant?

  6. ‘They need to take that into account …. and be very, very gradual as they can be…A 25-basis-point hike will have more impact than we’ve seen over the past 20, 30 years’

    These guys are funny in a way. A quarter point, and yer sweating it?

      1. Consider he’s likely talking about a quarter point and mortgage payments. But he has no problem saying, “shacks are up 30% since last week.” Which might have some effect on payments. Or maybe he’s concerned about shack sales. Either way a quarter point is nothing. And what happens after a quarter increase? Another, and another. These central banks flubbed it massively last year.

        1. “And what happens after a quarter increase? Another, and another.”

          …. until there’s nothin left but the crying…. and the stamping of feet.

  7. “There is a much higher fallout rate because people work themselves into a frenzy, they win and then they regret it.”

    “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” – Charles Mackay

    1. “The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself.” – Rudyard Kipling

  10. Morgan Stanley plans to ban workers from its New York headquarters if they have not received a Covid-19 vaccine. The rule will apply to non-vaccinated guests and clients as well.
    According to a source close to the company, Morgan Stanley said in a memo to its employees in the New York metropolitan area that all staff working in buildings with a “large employee presence” are required to confirm their vaccination status by July 1.
    The source added that “vaccine attestation is on an honorary basis for employees, contingent workforce, clients and visitors.” The Financial Times was the first to report the news.

    So, you can fib (for now) that you’ve had it. Then, when they later demand proof and you can’t supply it, they fire you.

    1. obviously morgan stanley got the gov. memo to fall in line re the vaxx propaganda or else no more priority skimming/ feeding at fed trough giveaways

      1. They are part of the globalist banking cartel. They don’t take orders, they give them. It is quite clear that they want a needle in every arm.

  11. From the Mansion Global article …

    “The house has a problem with the retaining wall, which Mr. Meier said the owners were transparent about.”

    Check.

    “Nonetheless, the first prospective buyer to make an offer ended up backing out over the issue.”

    A smart, logical, rational decision.

    “The sellers soon received an even higher bid, for $135,000 above the asking price, but that buyer ultimately backed out as well.”

    Another smart, logical, rational decision, this time from the second buyer. That’s two in a row. My, my.

    “After another round of bids, an even higher offer came in—for $170,000 above asking price.”

    (wait for it)

    “But then Mr. Meier got a call from the second buyer. They’d changed their minds and were now offering $190,000 above asking price.”

    Bahahahaha … the second buyer backed out at $135,000 over asking but then came back and bought it at $190,000 over asking.

    What a dummy.

  12. seven years to sell all the new development condos in Manhattan…down from a 2020 peak of 8.7 years.

    I guess they stopped building and everyone wants to move to NYC.

        1. If it gets me into the ladies locker room, I don’t care if you call me chester or sandy. (/s)

  16. Right, like its fair for a man who thinks they are a women, should compete with real women.

    Maybe transgenders should have their own competition division, whereby they can compete with each other. Otherwise they are just destroying sports for females. And if they give money prices for these competitions, they are going to rake in the bread.

    Its not right, and everybody knows it.

    1. Its not right, and everybody knows it.

      It doesn’t matter. It’s the narrative, and if you speak out, there are consequences.

      1. And all the consequences are pretty extreme like job loss, attack at your home by a mob. They are attacking Congress and Senate representatives. Tucker Carlson got attacked at his home. Rand Paul got death threats and attacks. Fear of being cancelled or being deemed a White Innsurrectionist is a clear threat. They have already cancelled disputing voices on the internet. Even some doctors/nurses have lost their job.
        At some point 80 million or more people are going to come out of the passive stage and not care about consequences anymore, and thats starting to happen . I don’t think they will be able to pull off more lockdowns , but I could be wrong.

        I prefer to say that they haven’t gotten the blowback or the consequences of their actions yet.

    3. “Right, like its fair for a man who thinks they are a women, should compete with real women.”

      I’ve heard that Caitlin Jenner agrees with you on this point…

  18. $495,000 4 bd
    3,867 sqft
    Price cut: $104K (6/22)
    3068 Southern Loop, Kingman, AZ 86401

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3068-Southern-Loop-Kingman-AZ-86401/8379222_zpid/

    Date Event Price
    6/22/2021 Price change $495,000 (-17.4%) $128/sqft
    6/18/2021 Listed for sale $599,000 (+87.8%) $155/sqft
    4/6/2019 Listing removed $319,000 $82/sqft
    4/4/2019 Price change $319,000 (-3%) $82/sqft
    3/29/2019 Price change $329,000 (-2.9%) $85/sqft
    3/19/2019 Price change $339,000 (-5.6%) $88/sqft
    3/6/2019 Price change $359,000 (-5.3%) $93/sqft

    1. It didn’t sell at $300k, so let’s jack it up to $600k. This is why the whole industry is so scummy.

  20. I would add that it seems to me that one of the ploys of invading Powers is to deliberately introduce insanity to get people distracted and fighting those issues, rather than what those Powers are really doing.
    The racism thingy is a distraction, used to divide and conquer. So, everybody fights over fake narratives , while they steal the Country.

    Now, according to Biden , those White Insurrectionist are the greatest threat to America.

    Than they shift to crisis based on fear mongering and fraud anything to destabilize the populations.

    Climate Change, we are going to die in 12 years, was not as effective as Covid 19 Panademic.

    And I don’t know how anybody can think that this attack on the first amendment and censorship of facts, news and dispute isn’t a tell tail sign of a very fraudulent power grab taking place .

      1. Scary stuff Mr Banker. Especially the fact that he said that the brainwashed from within can’t be changed and facts won’t matter to them.

        2. I went back and watched more tapes from that KGB defector from Russia. Given when he was giving these lessons on subversion , that’s exactly what happened in the US. Apparently he wasn’t listened to because exactly what he said happened.
          And without firing a shot , they can take over by subversion which takes about 15 to 20 years.

          It seems like more than one enemy was trying to bring the downfall of the US from within.

    2. The 2020 election was stolen.

      And the only good globalist is a dead globalist.

      Augusto Pinochet knew how to deal with these people, by taking them on one way helicopter rides without a parachute.

      Globalists gonna globe.

      1. Globalists gonna globe.

        Cindy McCain nominated as ambassador to UN Agencies for Food and Agriculture

        The chair of the McCain Institute and widow of Sen. John McCain was nominated by President Joe Biden for the position

        RINOs gonna RINO.

        1. Her reward for conspiring to throw an election. The McCain/Bush/Cheney Crime Syndicate belongs in prison.

  21. On the car rental subject …..We just came back from a 2 week road trip …The nice Hertz people we always deal with, fixed us up with what they called a “Cargo Van’ , one of those tall white vans you see on the delivery routes …we loved it . put a bed in the back and rattled all over , though we slept in motels at night ,which is another whole subject,
    We traveled about 4K miles , it got almost 20 MPG….Everyone on the highways respected us, guess it’s because how delivery people usually drive……They charged us like $320. a week , where a pickup would have been 3 times as much…..Yesterday when we returned it, the two ladies behind the counter informed me that they now have no vehicles,none, and if they get any in before the 4th of July thing ,a sedan will run well over $1200. a week ….Think we will stay home a while …

  22. “.Everyone on the highways respected us, guess it’s because how delivery people usually drive”

    🙂

    I got a new 2020 truck last year but I still have my 2003 beat up Ford F-250 to deliver material, load and move scaffold etc. Just last month I started calling the old 250 Aretha Franklin because of how many of the idiots on the road will among other things, cut in front of me knowing I will tap the brakes and let them go when I’m driving the new Chevy RST Silverado. But those same drivers give me so much R E S P E C T when I’m in the old 4 wheel drive 250 with the banged up body they won’t get within 10 yards of me and just stop and let me go in any kind of Mexican standoff in a parking lot.

    1. Back in the day I made a deal with a co-worker to buy his old quarter ton pickup. He got drunk and drove it into something hard before we finished the transaction. It was butt ugly but still ran great. I paid him $200 for it.

      Suddenly I was offered the right of way by everyone!

      1. “Suddenly I was offered the right of way by everyone!”

        Really beats the hell out of backup cameras, traction control and satellite radio doesn’t it. 🙂

    1. What will they do when the competent refuse to enlist and all they have left are illiterate vibrants? A draft? Won’t that mean that snowflakes will have to serve?

    2. What a fockin’ joke. This is all we need, a bunch of trannies blowing each other in the military.

      2. They probably have been there forever. Remember “don’t ask, don’t tell”?

        It’s just that now the LGBTQs are a protected political class in the Democratic Party’s panoply of special people who have to be worshipped and kowtowed.

  25. They say that there are two things in life one can’t avoid: death and taxes.

    Apparently some people really hate paying taxes.

  26. Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley defends teaching ‘critical race theory’ at West Point

    By Bruce Golding
    June 23, 2021 | 4:13pm

    America’s top military officer on Wednesday defended teaching “critical race theory” to US Army cadets at West Point — and said it’s important for those in uniform to understand “white rage.”

    During a budget hearing held by the House Armed Services Committee, Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Pentagon’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that “on the issue of critical race theory, etc., a lot of us have to get much smarter on whatever the theory is.”

    https://nypost.com/2021/06/23/gen-mark-milley-defends-teaching-critical-race-theory-at-west-point/

    1. You can teach a theory as a warning not to go there. Similarly, people need to be educated against the mistakes of past race-based movements in history, such as aryan supremacy in WWII Germany.

      1. “Similarly, people need to be educated against the mistakes of past race-based movements in history”

        Do you honestly believe that is what’s going on with ‘critical race theory’ ?

  28. “If America Is Racist, Why Have Millions of Blacks Immigrated Here? Did Jews Immigrate to Germany in the 1930s?”

    Dennis Prager

  29. Well this is creepy. Why am I not surprised that the Wall Street investment banks – our true rulers – are making COVID jabs mandatory?

    JPMorgan Warns Employees It May Require Them to Get Vaccinated

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/jpmorgan-warns-employees-it-may-require-them-to-get-vaccinated?srnd=premium&sref=ibr3A0ff

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it may require employees to be vaccinated against the Covid-19 virus, as Wall Street’s biggest banks ramp up efforts to keep thousands of personnel safe while reopening U.S. workplaces.

    The nation’s largest bank is ordering workers to fill out a questionnaire on their vaccination status by the end of this month, Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and other members of the operating committee wrote in a memo to staff Wednesday. Employees who don’t respond will be contacted by managers until they do.

    1. I guess private businesses can set whatever vax policy they want, unless you think the Biden gubmint should dictate it.

      2. Can businesses mandate that you take an experimental drug, one where you have to sign waivers before you can receive it?

  30. The Wall Street Journal
    LIVE MARKETS COVERAGE
    Stock Market News: Bitcoin, Oil Rebound, Lumber Prices Fall

    The Dow and S&P 500 edged lower, while Nasdaq inched higher to a new record close. Crude oil and bitcoin recovered, while lumber continued to fall.
    Jun 23, 2021 at 6:11 pm ET
    …

  31. After listening to bumbling Biden yesterday I would have expected this attack to have been committed by a licensed gun dealer who was waiting on his concealed carry nuclear weapon permit.

    Doctoral Candidate Who Sought to Prove Justice System Was ‘Racist Against Blacks’ Stabbed to Death by Black Male in Chicago

    by Chris Menahan | Information Liberation
    June 24th 2021, 2:39 am

    Anat Kimchi, a 31-year-old Israeli-born doctoral candidate and scholar at the University of Maryland, wrote a paper published in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology in 2019 attempting to prove America’s criminal justice system was racist against “young black offenders” and “black drug offenders.”

    While visiting Chicago over the weekend, Kimchi was ambushed and stabbed in the back and neck while walking near a homeless encampment at 401 South Wacker at around 3:35 p.m. Police said witnesses told them the assailant was a homeless “slim black male with long dreadlocks who wore a red bandana and a blue tank top,” CWB Chicago reported.

    (very nice omissions in the teevee news segment)

    University of Maryland doctoral candidate Anat Kimchi stabbed to death in Chicago | FOX 5 DC

    Jun 22, 2021
    https://youtu.be/I0674Qgv_cc

  32. Fauci Warns Dangerous Delta Variant Is The Greatest Threat To U.S. COVID Efforts

    June 22, 20214:25 PM ET

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/06/22/1008859705/delta-variant-coronavirus-unvaccinated-u-s-covid-surge

    Too much push back on the voting reforms, teaching of Critical race theory, shots in arms, open borders, gun control by the AFT ( What Biden called the ATF again yesterday) etc, and the Delta variant of the coronavirus will have a new lockdown song…

    https://youtu.be/IKJqecxswCA?t=42

    1. Meanwhile, infection rates continue to drop, even thought fewer and fewer people are masking up.

      1. infection rates continue to drop

        It is increasingly difficult to get tested if you are not presenting symptoms. It can be hard to draw conclusions from bogus manipulated “data”.

        1. Sorry, I wasn’t clear with my point, which was that infections in Tennessee are approaching the trivial level, even though “only” 30% are vaxxed.

    1. Somehow the lower case plural reference to Bitcoin makes this endorsement unconvincing. Seems like another politician just talking out of his a$$.

      “We’re going to become the center of life science, the center of cybersecurity, the center of self driving cars, drones, the center of bitcoins.”

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